Sports Picks & Predictions

#279/280 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 44.5 Points – Michigan vs Alabama, Monday at 5 PM ET - Weather looks perfect for scoring here with temps in the 60’s, no precipitation and light winds. We look for both offenses to have solid success in this game. Bama’s offense has been simply outstanding down the stretch averaging 42 PPG and 453 YPG over their last 5 games following their bye week. They are 7-1-1 to the Over in their last 9 games. Since benching QB Milroe in the USF game and then bringing him back the following week, the Crimson Tide have scored at least 24 points in every game (10 straight). In fact, they’ve been held under 24 just once this season and that was @ USF with Milroe on the bench. They averaged 35 PPG on the season and after some early season struggles they’ve morphed into one of the better offensive teams in the country. Michigan’s defense has great numbers for sure. But who have the played that has a high level offense? The Wolverines have faced a grand total of ONE offense currently ranked in the top 40 and that was vs Ohio State who barely ranked inside the top 40 (37th) and the Bucks scored 24 points in that game. A whopping 8 of Michigan’s 13 opponents ended the year ranked outside the top 100 in total offense. On the other side of the ball, Michigan’s offense scored at least 30 points in 11 of their 13 games. They were held under 30 by Iowa (26 points scored) and Penn State (24 points scored) who are both top 5 defensive teams nationally. Last year’s semi final games were both very high scoring totaling 96 and 83 points. Since the 2017/18 season, there have been 12 semi final games and 9 of those have reached at least 45 points (today’s total) with the average points scored in those games being 64 total points. We project both teams to get to at least 21 points which nearly puts us at this number already. Easy Over here in the Michigan vs Alabama game.

#261/262 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 57 or 57.5 Points – Memphis vs Iowa State, Friday at 3:30 PM ET - This is a home game for Memphis. The Tigers offense was among the best in college football all season long. They averaged 40 PPG on the season (7th nationally) and at home they put up 43 PPG. They’ll be facing an ISU defense that is down this year compared to previous seasons. The Cyclones rank outside the top 40 in total defense after ranking 2nd in that stat last season and 8th the year before. ISU will also be missing a few key contributors in the secondary which could be a problem vs a Memphis pass offense that ranks 13th in the nation averaging more than 300 yards through the air. On the other side, the Iowa State offense was humming down the stretch putting up at least 30 points in 4 of their last 6 games. On Friday they are facing a Memphis defense that has been poor all season. The Tigers rank outside the top 100 in total defense, YPP allowed, rushing defense, and pass defense. They are also allowing 29 PPG on the season and allowed at least 30 points in 7 of their 12 games this season. The only FBS teams that didn’t reach 30 points on this Memphis defense were Temple, UAB, Arkansas State, and Navy and 3 of those 4 are ranked outside the top 70 in total offense. This will be the 2nd worst statistical defense ISU will play this season and the Cyclones averaged 34 PPG vs the 4 lowest rated defenses they faced this year. Both teams will have to keep up on the scoreboard here and we expect a shootout in Memphis.

#209/210 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 48 Points – Boise State vs UCLA, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - Both teams lost their starting QB’s to the transfer portal with UCLA’s Moore heading to Michigan and Boise’s Green heading to Arkansas. The Bruins did rotate QB’s with Moore this season, however Garbers (the back up) injured his shoulder in their season finale vs Cal. Looks like he will play but even so, UCLA’s offense was a train wreck down the stretch. This offense scored 10 points or fewer in 3 of their final 4 games including vs defenses ranked 109th (Cal) and 92nd (Arizona State). This is a run heavy offense (15th in the country in rushing attempts per game) that might be without the top RB Steele who has been held out of practice due to an injury. Boise’s offense was lights out at the end of the season but we’re expecting a huge tail off here as they are down to their 3rd string QB, CJ Tiller, a freshman who has never taken a collegiate snap. He’ll be facing a UCLA defense that is by far the best and most athletic stop unit the Broncos have faced this season. The Bruins rank in the top 10 in the country in most defensive categories and they’ve allowed only 3 opponents to top 20 points this season. Boise’s defense was poor early in the season but after head coach Avalos was fired (hearing players didn’t like him at all) they really played well holding 5 of their last 6 opponents to 20 points or less. Both teams average over 40 rush attempts per game (both top 25 in that stat) which eats clock and shortens games. We expect that here especially with the uncertainty at QB for both sides. This one stays Under the Total

#313/314 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 60.5 Points – UNLV vs Boise State, Saturday at 3 PM ET - These offenses are humming right now and we don’t think they slow down here. After a slow start to the season offensively, the Broncos have now topped 30 points in 9 of their last 10 games. The only time they did not hit that mark was last week vs Air Force who has the 6th best defense in the country and Boise still put up 27 points and over 400 yards at 7.4 YPP in that win. UNLV has topped 30 points in 8 of their 12 games this season including 4 games in a row. Last week we were on the Over 59 in the UNLV vs SJSU game and the final score was 37-31. That game could have had more points as the 2 teams combined for only 6 punts in 22 possessions and the offenses combined to average right around 7.0 YPP. Both defenses in this game rank outside the top 90 in YPP allowed and outside the top 70 in total defense so we look for both offenses to continue their success. Boise’s defense looks like it has improved over the last 3 or 4 games however a closer look reveals they’ve been pretty lucky. Last week they gave up 19 points in an Air Force offense that has been in a freefall scoring less than 20 points in 3 of their last 4 games. A week earlier they held a good Utah State offense to 10 points but the Aggies had 4 turnovers and were shut out on downs 3 times in Boise territory. The only 2 teams the Rebels held under 20 points this season were Wyoming and New Mexico and they allowed at least 27 points in 7 games this season. This game is being played in a controlled environment @ Allegiant Stadium in Vegas so perfect conditions for scoring. Over is our play on this game.

#197/198 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 59.5 Points - San Jose State at UNLV, 3 PM ET - It all comes down to this game to determine who will play in the Mountain West Conference Championship. Air Force and Boise State could still manage to get it but either way, all teams involved must win to have that opportunity. With that in mind we expect this game to be a shootout between the Spartans and Rebels. In conference action this season UNLV games have averaged 59.2 total points per game. Conference games involving San Jose State have averaged slightly lower at 56.8PPG. After a slow start to the season, SJST has won 5 straight games and the offense has clicked with 52, 42, 35, 42 and 24-points. The Rebels have surprised everyone this season with their 8-2 record, and they too have put up some impressive offensive numbers by scoring 31 or more points in seven games this season, 40+ in five. UNLV is 41st in yards per play offense at 6.2, rank 40th in total YPG at 425, run and pass it equally well. The Spartans are 58th in total YPG (398), 30th in yards per play (6.4) and rank 32nd in rushing yards per game, 81st in passing yards per game. Both teams also hit on explosive scoring plays as evidenced by San Jose State averaging 12.9 yards per point scored (26th) and UNLV averaging 12.2YPPT which ranks 12th. We expect both teams to get into the 30’s in this one and predict an easy OVER winner.

#103/104 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 51.5 Points – Bowling Green vs Western Michigan, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - We were on the Over in the WMU vs Northern Illinois game last week and the Broncos let us down with their worst performance of the season. We like them to bounce back in their home finale on Tuesday. WMU didn’t score a point last week but prior to that they were averaging 31.5 PPG their previous 7 games and only Ohio (ranked 5th nationally in total defense) held them under 21 points. BG’s defense went through a stretch of games recently where their defense looked very good. Those 4 games were vs Buffalo, Kent, Ball State, and Akron, and not one of those offenses ranks inside the top 105 nationally. Last week the Falcons gave up 32 points to Toledo and prior to that 4 games stretch vs terrible offenses, they had allowed an average of 31 PPG their prior 4 games. We like WMU’s to have success on Tuesday. On the other side, Bowling Green’s offense has been rolling to say the least. They’ve scored at least 24 points in 6 of their last 7 games and if we subtract their one offensive stinker during that stretch vs Miami OH (23rd defense nationally) the Falcons averaged 34.5 PPG in the other 6 games. Their facing a bad Western Michigan defense on Tuesday as the Broncos rank 11th in the MAC (12 team conference) in total defense and scoring defense. WMU has allowed at least 20 points in every game this season and they’ve allowed 40+ four times. WMU games have topped 50 total points in 7 of their last 9 games and BG games have topped 50 in 4 of their last 6. With this total sitting in the low 50’s we’re getting some value with the Over here. Weather can be an issue in the Midwest this time of year but not on Tuesday in Kalamazoo with showers ending before or near kickoff, temps in the 40’s and light winds.

#341/342 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 59.5 Points – North Carolina vs Clemson, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - UNC’s defense has been brutal over the last month allowing at least 31 points in each of their last 4 games (minus their game vs FCS opponent Campbell. Last week they allowed 47 points (36 in regulation) to a Duke offense that has been flat out bad over the last month averaging just 16 PPG over their previous 5 games. Duke put up those numbers last week with their starting QB Leonard on the bench with an injury. Clemson’s offense has come alive the last 2 weeks with 73 total points and should have plenty of success vs a UNC defense that’s been poor (82nd total defense) to say the least. On the other side of the ball, the Heels have one of the best QB’s in college football in Drake Maye and the rank 8th nationally averaging 40 PPG and 3rd nationally in total offense putting up 520 YPG. Clemson’s defense has allowed 21 points or more in 4 straight games vs offense with an average rank of 54th in the country. The fact is Clemson hasn’t faced an offense as potent as UNC this season. The best offense they’ve faced in FSU (ranked 23rd) and they put up 31 points in Clemson on this team. Both teams are fast paced with UNC ranking 11th in seconds per play and Clemson ranking 39th so we expect plenty of offensive snaps in this game. The implied teams totals in this game based on the total and the 7 point spread in favor of Clemson are the Tigers 33 and the Tar Heels 26. Perfect weather expected in Clemson on Saturday and we expect both teams to top those numbers and we’re on the Over on Saturday in this ACC match up.

#307/308 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 41 Points – Buffalo vs Miami OH, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - Defense is the strength of both of these teams. Miami has been solid all season ranking in the top 25 in total defense and YPP allowed along with ranking 12th giving up just 17 PPG. They have held 7 straight opponents to 21 points or fewer and the only 2 teams that reached 21 points during that stretch were Toledo & WMU, the top 2 teams in the MAC in total offense. In their other 4 conference games (minus Toledo & WMU) the Redhawks have allowed a total of 19 points or less than 5 PPG. We don’t look for Buffalo’s offense to do much of anything on Wednesday night. Their only real successful offensive performance in MAC play this season was vs CMU who has the worst defense in the league. In their other 5 conference games, the Bulls have averaged only 14.8 PPG. Over the last 2 weeks Buffalo has faced Toledo and Ohio, the other 2 highest rated defenses in the conference along with Miami, and they scored 13 & 10 points in those games. For the season Buffalo ranks 109th in total offense and 128th in YPP. The Bulls defense struggled their first few games of the season but they’ve played very well over the last few months. Since MAC play started, the Bulls have allowed an average of just 17 PPG, 3rd best in the conference, and only Toledo (by far the best offense in the MAC) topped 24 points. The Redhawks offense is very slow paced (131st in seconds per play) and with backup QB Smith now under center, they’ve relied very heavily on the run which eats clock. In Smith’s 2 starts, he’s attempted a TOTAL of 28 passes while running the ball 86 times. The Redhawks offense ranks 97th in total offense at 345 YPG, however over their last 2 games since Smith has been the QB, they’ve averaged only 263 total yards. We’d be surprised if either team topped 21 points here so Under is our recommendation.

#305/306 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 54.5 Points – Western Michigan vs Northern Illinois, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - The MAC has a number of bad offenses this season, but these are not 2 of them. In league play WMU ranks 2nd in total offense and scoring while NIU ranks 3rd in total offense and scoring. The Huskies also lead the conference averaging almost 7 YPP in league games. The Broncos have scored at least 21 points in every MAC game with the exception of Ohio, and they’ve put up 83 points over their last 2 games alone. The problem has been their defense which ranks dead last in the MAC in YPG and YPP allowed and 11th (out of 12 teams) in PPG allowed. They’ve allowed at least 20 points in every conference game and even terrible offenses, EMU and Ball State, put up 21 and 24 points respectively. Even Iowa, who has the worst offense in the nation averaging 243 YPG (133rd) scored 49 points on this defense. NIU is coming off their worst offensive performance in conference play last week vs Ball State but 3 turnovers limited their opportunities. We expect them to bounce back here. Prior to their game vs the Cardinals, Northern had averaged 32 PPG their previous 5 MAC games. NIU’s overall defensive numbers are solid but they’ve played so many weak offenses in conference play. 5 of the 8 worst offenses in the nation on a YPP basis reside in the MAC. The Huskies have faced 2 of the top 4 offenses in the league this season, Toledo and CMU, and in those games they gave up 35 & 37 points. Now they face a WMU offense that is right there with those 2 teams on that side of the ball. The Broncos also excel and running the ball and they are facing a defense that ranks outside the top 100 at stopping the run. WMU is also the fastest paced team in the MAC and top 25 in the country in that stat. Lots of scoring opportunities should be available on Tuesday night and we grab the Over.

#119/120 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 68 Points – North Texas vs SMU, Friday at 9 PM ET - Two fast paced teams with great offenses going at it here. UNT is the 8th fastest team in the country running a play every 21 seconds while SMU ranks 34th running a play ever 24 seconds. UNT averages 77 offensive plays per game (8th nationally) and SMU averages 75 (17th). Not only does each team run a lot of plays, they are both high level offenses ranking in the top 15 in total offense and both averaging 6.5 YPP. SMU averages 40 PPG and UNT averages 35 PPG. The Mustangs will be facing a Mean Green defense that flat out stinks, thus why they are 17 point favorites. The Green are allowing 470 YPG (132nd), 6.4 YPP (125th) and 37 PPG (129th). As bad as those numbers are, they’ve only faced ONE offense this season that is currently ranked in the top 45 nationally and that was Memphis who put up 45 on North Texas. We’re confident the Stangs top 40 in this one as that’s their average and this is the worst defense they’ve faced. Can UNT put points on the board? Our answer is yes. The SMU defense is highly ranked in a number of categories and they’ve allowed an average of only 16 PPG this season. However, they’ve played a weak slate of offenses this season. They’ve only faced 3 teams this year ranked inside the top 65 in total offense and those 3 (TCU, Oklahoma, and Rice) averaged 31 PPG vs this SMU defense. UNT offense is tough to slow down as they are very balanced averaging 181 YPG on the ground and over 300 through the air. They’ve put up at least 39 points in 5 of their last 8 games. Based on the 17 point spread, the projected score here is right around SMU 43, UNT 26 and we think both teams eclipse those numbers. Weather looks decent in the Dallas area on Friday night with light winds and we look for a shootout in this one.

#115/116 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 50.5 Points – Virginia vs Louisville, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - We were on the UVA – Georgia Tech Over last week which cashed but part of that handicap was how Cav QB Muskett had been playing well. That changes here as Muskett was injured (high ankle sprain) and will most likely miss this one on a short week. His replacement was freshman Colandrea who picked up some experience earlier in the season when Muskett was injured. Last week Colandrea entered early in the 1st quarter and was only able to put up 17 points vs a Georgia Tech defense that was rated 130th in total defense entering last week’s game. Now UVA faces a high level defense in Louisville who ranks in the top 15 nationally in total offense and scoring defense and the Cards stop unit is peaking allowing 3 total points over their last 2 games vs Duke and Va Tech. They’ve held 6 of their last 8 opponents to 20 points or less. Needless to say we think Virginia struggles big time on offense here. This should be a run heavy game for Louisville which eats clock. They are a big favorite here and when they get the lead they’ve shown they’ll grind it out on the ground. Last week they got in front of a solid Va Tech team and ran the ball 38 times and attempted only 13 passes in a game that ended with 40 total points. A week prior they faced Duke, got out in front and ran the ball 48 times with only 16 pass attempts in a game that ended with 23 total points. We see a similar situation here and we’re not comfortable laying 20+ points with Louisville, the Under should cash here if it plays out as we expect.

#111/112 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 41 Points – Akron vs Miami Oh, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - Defense is the strength of both of these teams. Surprising to most because they are a 2-7 team, the Zips defense is pretty solid. They are in the top 50 nationally in total defense (342 YPG) and YPP defense (5.4). They’ve been outstanding vs the pass allowing opposing QB’s to complete only 54% of their pass attempts (8th best in the nation). They’ve been a bit unlucky defensively allowing 1 point for every 11.8 yards gained (average is around 1 for every 15 yards gained) so their overall numbers are better than their PPG allowed numbers. They are facing a Miami offense that ranks 90th in total offense and they are down to their 2nd string QB Smith who made his first start last week for the injured starter Gabbert. The Redhawks already don’t pass much but it will even be less with Smith under center who has completed less than 50% of his career attempts. Last week Miami attempted only 11 passes vs Ohio. It looks like they played well offensively with 30 points but they were very fortunate to get to that number with only 290 total yards. On the other side, Akron can’t score. They did last week vs a bad Kent team but prior to that the Zips had scored 14 or fewer points in 5 of their previous 6 games. They rank 129th for the season with just 17 PPG. They are facing a Miami defense that is very solid allowing only 19 PPG on the season. They have allowed only 61 points over their last 5 games including holding Toledo, easily the best offense in the league, to just 21 points a few weeks ago. Both teams are slow paced with Miami coming in at 128th and Akron 76th in plays per second so we don’t look for many possessions here. Defense rules the day and Under is the play.

#101/102 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 44 Points – Ohio vs Buffalo, Tuesday at 7:30 PM ET - The Ohio defense is among the best in the nation and Buffalo’s defense has played very well over the last month and a half. The Bobcats rank in the top 12 nationally in total defense, YPP allowed, scoring defense, rush defense, and pass defense. They have held 7 of their 9 opponents this season to 20 points or less including limiting their foe to 10 points or less 4 times. That defensive dominance should continue on Tuesday night vs a Buffalo offense that averages just 324 total yards per game (110th nationally) on 4.5 YPP (127th). The Bulls do like to air it out offensively, however Ohio gives up very few explosive plays in the pass game allowing just 6.0 yards per pass attempt (14th nationally). On top of that, as of this writing on Monday, the Buffalo weather looks a little windy on Tuesday night (15 MPH). The Bulls overall defensive numbers aren’t great but much of that was their early struggles through the first 4 weeks of the season. Since entering MAC play, this Buffalo defense has allowed an average of 16.8 PPG. Last week they did give up 31 points to Toledo, easily the best offense in the MAC, however 7 of those points for the Rockets came on a kick return. The Ohio offense isn’t in the same stratosphere as Toledo ranking 96th in total offense and 102nd in YPP. The Bobcats also rank outside the top 100 in scoring and have been held to 20 or fewer points in 5 of their last 7 games. This should also be a slower paced game with Ohio ranking 105th in seconds per play and Buffalo 52nd. We don’t see either team topping 21 points in this game so Under is our call.

#383/384 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 61 Points – LSU vs Alabama, Saturday at 7:45 PM ET - Bama has a solid defense this year but not a high level Crimson Tide stop unit of past seasons. They have very good overall numbers but they haven’t faced a decent passing attack since Texas who put up 34 points on the Tide. The average rank of the pass offenses they’ve faces since Texas is 68th. On Saturday they face the #1 pass offense in the country led by Heisman candidate QB Jaylen Daniels who already has over 2,500 yards passing, 25 passing TD’s and over 500 yards rushing. LSU leads the nation in scoring at 47 PPG and they’ve topped 40 points in 6 of their last 7 games. The Tigers have topped 500 total yards in every game this year but one and that was their season opener vs Florida State and they had 459 yards in that one. The Bama defense has allowed 20+ points in each of the last 3 games vs teams ranked 43rd, 45th, and 73rd nationally in scoring offense. Now they face the best offense in the country. We’re confident LSU tops 30 in this game. So can the Crimson Tide keep up offensively? Absolutely. LSU’s defense is bad. It looks like the Tiger defense may be progressing allowing 0 points vs Army and 18 points vs Auburn in their last 2 games. Forget about it. Army’s offense is one dimensional and terrible scoring a grand total of 14 points over their last 3 games combined! Auburn’s offense can’t pass (119th) so they were unable to take advantage of LSU’s defensive weakness vs the pass (91st vs the pass and 109th in YPP allowed). Prior to that, in their previous 3 games, LSU allowed 31, 55, and 39 points. The Tigers are missing a few key pieces in their secondary this week which will make it very tough to slow down an Alabama offense that has been clicking through the air. Since getting inexplicably benched vs USF early this season, Tide QB Milroe has completed almost 70% of his passes with 8 TD’s and 3 interceptions many games vs defenses much better than this LSU stop unit. Last year these 2 totaled 63 points and in 3 of the last 4 seasons they’ve gotten to at least that number. This is a keep up game in our opinion. Both offenses will have tons of success and each will have to keep up on the scoreboard. Weather looks perfect in Tuscaloosa with temps around 60 degrees with almost no wind on Saturday night. Over is the play.

#113/114 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 63.5 Points – Georgia State vs Georgia Southern, Thursday at 7 PM ET - When these 2 met last season, they total was 67.5 and they scored 74 points on nearly 1,000 total yards of offense. We look for a similar situation on Thursday night. Georgia Southern has been very solid offensively this season averaging 32 PPG but even better at home where they put up 40 PPG on 6.0 YPP. The Eagles are a fast paced team (22nd in the country) and they average a whopping 81 plays per game which is 2nd in the nation. Their strength on offense is throwing the ball with their QB Brin who has already thrown for 2100 yards on the season. They rank 12th nationally averaging 313 YPG passing and that plays directly into the weakness off the Georgia State defense which ranks 122nd in pass defense. Georgia State is more balanced but very solid running the ball (177 YPG) as well as passing (233 YPG) with veteran QB Grainger running the show. The Panthers are coming off a lower scoring game vs Louisiana as they upset the Rajin’ Cajuns 20-17. That final has kept this total lower than it should be in our opinion. Their total in last week’s game was set at 62 as well despite the fact that when comparing Louisiana to this week’s opponent (Georgia Southern) the Cajuns rank lower in total offense and higher in total defense along with being a much slower paced team. The only other game that Georgia State struggled offensively was vs Troy who’s defense ranks 8th in the nation. The Panthers scored at least 30 points in each of their other 5 games this season. We look for a high possession, fast paced game here similar to last year when the 2 teams ran 79 and 77 offensive snaps. The weather looks perfect in Statesboro with temps in the upper 50’s and light winds under 5 MPH. High scoring here.

#353/354 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 55 Points - Appalachian State at Old Dominion, Saturday at 7 PM ET - We expect a high scoring game between these two Sun Belt schools. Last season when these same two teams met, they produced only 41-points, but they amassed 892 total yards with App State converting 7.8 yards per play, ODU was just under 6.0YPP. Neither defense is very good as Old Dominion ranks 89th in yards per point defense, App State is worse, ranking 98th. The Mountaineers really struggle to stop the run allowing 5.4 yards per rush (123rd) and they haven’t faced a rushing attack as good as this ODU’s. In fact, you could argue App State’s rush D is even worse than the number indicated as two of the offenses they’ve faced this season rank 94th or worse. Old Dominion is 19th in the country in rushing yards per attempt at 5.4 and should gouge this Neer’s defense overland. On the flip side, ODU struggles to stop the pass and Appalachian State is very capable of hitting big plays with their passing attack. App State is averaging 11.7 yards per completion and average 266.7 passing YPG. The Monarchs rank 114th in opponents’ completion percentage at 64.9%, 100th in completions and 86th in passing YPG allowed. Those numbers come against a soft schedule of teams that don’t pass well too. These offenses both rank top 50 in yards per play offensively and ODU is one of the fastest paced teams in the nation. App State isn’t slow either as they average a play run every 24.87 seconds which is 44th fastest. Easy call on the Over in this one.

#313/314 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 49 Points – James Madison vs Marshall, Thursday at 7 PM ET - JMU’s offense has been on a tear averaging 35 PPG on the season. If you take out their game vs a top notch Troy defense (16-14 final score), the Dukes have scored more than 30 in every other game with an average of 38 PPG. They should have big time success here vs a Marshall defense that has allowed 35, 48, and 41 points over their last 3 games and 2 of those opponents rank 84th (Old Dominion) and 109th (NC State) in total offense. The Herd defense put up solid numbers in their first 3 games of the season but their opponents were University of Albany (FCS), East Carolina (127th in scoring), and Virginia Tech (78th in scoring). Marshall is going to have to put points on the board to keep up in this game. We think they will. They are averaging 420 YPG and just over 30 PPG. The Herd offense is trending up with 106 points scored in their last 3 games (35 PPG) while averaging 447 total yards vs 3 defense that combined to allow an average of 380 YPG. Marshall’s strength offensively is throwing the ball averaging 265 YPG and completing almost 69% of their passes (21st nationally). They are facing a JMU defense who’s weakness is defending the pass allowing 310 YPG through the air which ranks them 129th out of 133 teams. Last week they “held” a potent Georgia Southern offense to 13 points, however the Eagles threw for over 300 yards but threw 3 interceptions in JMU territory including at the 15 and 23 yard line. GSU had plenty of opportunities to put points on the board. Marshall games are averaging 59 total points this season and JMU games are averaging 56 total points. This is set to low and we like the Over.

#301/302 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 57 Points – Middle Tennessee State vs Liberty, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - MTSU has been facing all out passing teams as of late and that is their weakness defensively. 3 of their last 4 opponents are pass first offenses (CSU, La Tech, and WKY all rank 110th or lower in rush offense) while MTSU’s defense ranks outside the top 110 in pass defense. Now they face a Liberty offense that runs the ball more than pretty much anyone in the country. The Flames are 4th nationally in rush attempts per game and rushing play percentage. First of all that eats clock and secondly MTSU has been very solid vs the run. They are allowing 135 YPG rushing and only 3.9 YPC. Only 1 team has topped 200 yards on the ground vs the Blue Raider defense and that was Alabama in their season opener. They held SEC opponent Missouri to just 2.4 YPC and Jacksonville State (14th nationally in rushing) to only 3.6 YPC. Liberty will have success but we don’t think it will be easy. Offensively MTSU is not great to say the least. They rank 79th in YPP and 108th in scoring averaging only 22 PPG. Those numbers look even worse consider their last 5 opponents have been Murray State (FCS), Colorado State (131st in total defense), Western Kentucky (128th in total defense), Jacksonville St (67th in total defense), and La Tech (64th in total defense). Now they face a Liberty stop unit that ranks 18th nationally in total defense and 24th in YPP allowed. The Flames are giving up only 17 PPG and they’ve allowed just 35 total points their last 3 games. MTSU will struggle on offense in this one. Because they are primarily a running team, Liberty is very slow paced (117th in pace) as they like get ahead and control the tempo. That’s how we see this game playing out. Liberty games are averaging 53 total points per game and MTSU games are averaging 54 total points, both less than this current number. We see this game ending the high 40’s making Under the play.

#183/184 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 60 Points – Boise State vs Colorado State, Saturday at 9:45 PM ET - We were on CSU vs Utah State Over last week and while the Rams offense didn’t perform as we expected, their defense did. CSU allowed the Aggies to roll up 44 points on 639 total yards! That side of the ball will be another huge concern here vs a Boise offense that can be every bit as explosive as Utah State. The Broncos have now topped 30 points in 4 straight games and their QB rotation of Green (dangerous dual threat) and Madsen (solid passer) has been tough to defend the last 2 games alone putting up 67 total points and over 1,000 yards! Boise’s offense has been a thorn in CSU’s side to say the least scoring an average of 42.3 PPG over the last 10 meetings. We see a similar outcome on Saturday. The problem the Broncos have had is on the other side of the ball. Their defense stinks. They rank 132nd (out of 133) allowing opponents to average almost 7.0 YPP. They’re terrible defending the pass ranking 125th nationally which is a big problem here facing a CSU offense that averaged 352 YPG through the air (4th best in the country). Boise is allowing 34 PPG on the season including giving up 31 points on 439 total yards to a bad San Diego State offense that ranks 122nd in scoring and averages 16 PPG. The only team that didn’t reach at least 27 points on this defense was UCF who had 18 points but also ripped off 530 total yards of offense which would normally yield 35 points based on UCF’s yards per point numbers this season. The Rams offense had one of the worst performances last week at USU and the game still almost hit 70 total points. They only ran 52 offensive plays in the game (Utah State ran 84 plays) and turned the ball over 5 times. CSU had 17 points in the first quarter and either turned the ball over on downs or had a turnover on 4 of their final 5 possessions. Prior to last week the Rams has scored at least 30 points in 3 straight games and we expect them to top that again here. Weather looks good in Fort Collins for Saturday night and we expect both teams to get into the 30’s here. Take the Over.

#189/190 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 54.5 Points – UCLA vs Oregon State, Saturday at 8 PM ET - The oddsmakers continue to set UCLA totals too high (4-1 Under this season) as this is not the offensive juggernaut and poor defensive team they’ve been the last few seasons. In fact, the Bruins are now the exact opposite. Defense is absolutely the strength of this team. UCLA’s stop unit ranks in the top 10 nationally in scoring defense, total defense, YPP allowed, rushing YPG allowed, and YPC allowed. They have not given up more than 17 points in any game this season and they’ve allowed a grand total of 5 offensive TD’s in 5 games this season! Last week they held a very potent Washington State, who came into the game averaging 40 PPG on 472 YPG, to just 10 offensive points on 216 total yards. Offensively the Bruins are breaking in a new freshman QB Moore and vs FBS teams this season they are only averaging 23 PPG, more than 2 full TD’s down from last year’s numbers. And this year’s numbers have come against 3 defenses ranked 91st, 92nd, and 117th in total defense. The only good defense UCLA has faced is Utah (ranked 22nd in total defense) and the Utes held them to 7 points. Saturday’s opponent, Oregon State, will be the 2nd best defense UCLA has faced this season at 39th nationally. Oregon State’s offense has had some high scoring outputs but similarly to UCLA, they haven’t played a great slate of defenses. They’ve faced just 1 stop unit ranked in the top 60 in total defense this season and that was Utah once again (ranked 22nd) and that game ended 21-7 in favor of Oregon State. With the spread at -3.5 to -4 in favor of the Beavers, the final projected score in this game is in the 29-25 range. We don’t see either team reaching those totals. Under here.

#179/180 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 57 Points – Fresno State vs Utah State, Friday at 8 PM ET - We were on the CSU vs Utah State Over last week and cashed nicely. We’re coming right back on the Over with USU at home again this week. The Aggies offense is humming right now to say the least. They put up 44 points last week on 639 total yards and were quite balanced doing it (387 yards passing / 252 yards rushing). In their last 3 games the USU offense has tallied 114 points (39 PPG) on nearly 1,600 total yards. Senior QB Legas, who began the season as the starter, stepped in for an injured Hillestad and has been outstanding with almost 600 yards passing and 7 TD’s in the last 6 quarters! They’re taking on a Fresno defense that’s not nearly as good as their overall numbers in our opinion. They rank in the top 15 in total defense but they’ve faced just an atrocious set of offenses to date. They’ve faced 4 FBS offenses this season that rank outside the top 95 in total offense including 3 that rank 110th or lower. That includes a Kent offense that ranks dead last nationally in many categories including total offense. The best FBS offense they’ve faced this season is Purdue (63rd in total offense) who hit them for 35 points. FCS Eastern Washington also had 30+ points on this defense. We look for USU to be successful putting points on the board. The Aggies will be the highest ranked offense Fresno has faced this season. Fresno’s offense should be successful as well. The Bulldogs had scored at least 27 points in every game this season prior to last week’s 19 point output vs a very good Wyoming defense that struggled with Texas & Texas Tech but has shut everyone else down. The USU defense ranks outside the top 100 allowing 33 PPG and they’ve allowed at least 24 points in every game this year including vs Iowa and UConn who rank 131st and 108th respectively in total offense. Because they are so potent offensively and struggle on defense USU games are averaging 70 total points this season. These teams have combined to play 12 games this season and 9 have gone Over the total and we expect another high scoring game on Friday Night.

#117/118 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 49.5 Points – SMU vs East Carolina, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - ECU’s offense is bad. They have not topped 14 offensive points in any game this season with the exception of their game vs FCS Gardner Webb. The Pirates did have 28 points vs App State, however 14 of those points came from defensive fumble returns for TD’s. Minus their game vs Gardner Webb, the Pirates are averaging just 4.2 YPP which ranks them 129th nationally out of 133 teams. They’ll be facing an SMU defense that has been very good this season allowing opponents to average only 4.9 YPP ranking them in the top 30. The only team that really played well vs SMU offensively was TCU who put up 34 points. Even when they faced Oklahoma, the Mustangs defense held the Sooners to 28 points and 365 total yards which was a season low in yardage for OU. We expect ECU to struggle again on offense. On the other side of the ball, SMU’s offense isn’t nearly as explosive as it was last season. They are averaging just 25 PPG vs FBS opponents after putting up 36 PPG last season. On a YPP basis the Stangs rank just 73rd averaging 5.3 after ranking in the top 35 last year at 5.9 YPP. ECU’s defense has at least been respectable, unlike their offense, ranking 72nd nationally allowing 387 YPG despite playing very good offenses Michigan & App State so far this season. ECU games have topped 50 total points only once in 5 games this season. SMU games have topped 52 points only once in 5 games this season. With SMU tabbed as a 12 point favorite the projected score is right around 31-19 range. We don’t see either team reaching those totals so we’ll go Under in this one.

#371/372 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 62 Points – Colorado State vs Utah State, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Two very fast paced teams here so we’ll have plenty of opportunities on offense. USU ranks 6th nationally in seconds per play and CSU ranks 11th in that category. Both average over 70 offensive plays per game and on the other side of the ball both defenses rank in the top 30 in opponent offensive plays per game with USU allowing 73 opponent snaps per game and CSU allowing 84! So we know we’ll be looking at a lot of offensive snaps here and we have no doubt both teams will be very successful on that side of the ball. The Aggies have been very good offensively with the exception of their games vs Air Force & Iowa, 2 of the top defenses in the country. In their other 3 games they’ve scored 78, 38, and 34 points and now they face a Colorado State defense that ranks 125th in total defense allowing 40+ points in 2 of their 4 games. The Aggies did lose their starting QB Hillstead last week but he is a freshman and was not the starter at the beginning of the season. Their backup QB Legas was the starter for the first 2 games this year, is a senior, was last year’s starter, and has thrown for 600 yards this season. He came in last week for an injured Hillstead and threw for over 200 yards and 3 TD’s in less than one half of play. On the flip side, CSU averages 6.6 YPP (top 30 nationally) and they’ve scored 30+ in 3 of their 4 games this season. The Rams are facing a Utah State defense that ranks outside the top 100 in total defense as well. Both teams air it out and neither runs the ball much. CSU ranks 4th nationally in pass attempts per game and 3rd in YPG through the air while averaging only 26 carries per game (128th). USU ranks 19th in pass attempts per game and 35th in YPG passing while only averaging 30 carries per game (111th). On the defensive side the Rams rank 132nd out of 133 teams in pass defense and Utah State ranks 94th in that stat so we don’t look for either offense to change their style here. Offensive strengths playing directly into defensive weaknesses for both teams. Colorado State games are averaging 60 PPG this season and they’ve topped 60 total points in 3 of their 4 games. Utah State games are averaging 71 total points this season and EVERY team they’ve played has been slow paced, all ranked outside the top 90 in seconds per play. These teams have played 9 combined games this season with 7 going Over the total. Both easily get into the 30’s here and we wouldn’t be at all shocked if both push 40 or higher. Weather looks perfect for this game in Logan Utah and we look for LOTS of scoring.

#137/138 ASA PLAY ON Over 59.5 Points – South Carolina vs Tennessee, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - FAST! That’s what this game is going to be like with more than the normal number of possessions for both teams. Tennessee is the 2nd fastest paced team in college football with a play run every 19.8 seconds. South Carolina prefers to play fast also with the 19th fastest paced offense. The Vols run 73 plays per game, SC runs 70.3 which are both more than average in college football. Last year when these two teams met, they produced 101 total points and over 1,100 total yards of offense. The Gamecocks offense with QB Rattler can move the chains as evidenced by their 8th ranked passing offense averaging 340PYPG. He is completing 73.4% of his pass attempts at a 9.8 yards/attempt clip and owns the 15th best QB rating in college football. Tennessee has impressive pass defense statistics, but they haven’t faced a team that ranks higher than 50th in passing yards per game. The Vols are going to put up points in this game against a suspect Gamecocks defense. SoutH Carolina just gave up 30-points to Mississippi State and over 500-total yards of offense to the Bulldogs. The week before they gave up just 24-points to Georgia which was misleading considering the Dawgs had 470-total yards of offense. Tennessee is 24th in YPG, 31st in YPP at 6.6 and average 35PPG. The Vols tend to score more at home as they average 45PPG at home since 2021 and last season they scored 53.7PPG at home. This game has a shootout written all over it.