Sports Picks & Predictions

#675/676 ASA PLAY ON Under – Purdue vs UConn, Monday at 9:20 PM ET - We anticipate this to be a slower paced game with limited possessions which will limit scoring. UConn ranks 328th in adjusted tempo and Purdue is outside the top 200. UConn’s games in the tourney have averaged 65 possessions per game and in their last 2 games vs 2 of the fastest paced teams in the country, Illinois & Bama, they had 69 and 63 possessions respectively. Purdue’s game vs NC State on Saturday had only 64 possessions and the Boilers have averaged 65 possessions per game in their 5 NCAA tourney tilts. Both of these defenses are playing at a high level right now with only 1 of their 10 combined NCAA tourney opponents reaching 70 points. That was UConn’s game on Saturday vs Alabama who came in averaging 90 PPG and only scored 72 despite shooting 48% from beyond the arc. Purdue is allowing just 60 PPG in the Big Dance while the Huskies are allowing just 57 PPG. Purdue’s games in the tourney are 4-1 to the Under and averaging 140 total points and that includes a game they scored 106 by themselves vs Utah State. Take out that one outlier and their games are averaging 131 total points. UConn is 5-0 to the Under in the tourney with their games averaging 139 total points and that includes 2 games vs Bama & Illinois, two of the top offensive teams in the nation who are both very fast paced. Only 3 of the last 12 National Championship games have topped 145 total points. Last year’s National Championship game totaled 135 points (this UConn team vs San Diego State) and we project a similar total on Monday. Defense and slow pace on Monday lead to an Under.

#673/674 ASA PLAY ON Under 146.5 Points – NC State vs Purdue, Saturday 6:05 PM ET - Tough shooting venue here in Arizona (State Farm Stadium home of the AZ Cardinals) with a huge indoor football stadium hosting the Final 4. Neither team is really fast paced with NC State ranking 156th in possessions per game and Purdue 184th . Both have slowed the pace even more in the tourney with none of NC State’s 4 games getting to 70 possessions (including an OT game vs Oakland) while Purdue’s NCAA games have averaged 65 possessions per game. Both defenses are playing at a high level right now with neither allowing 70 points (in regulation) in their 8 combined NCAA tournament games. Purdue’s defense has been really solid all season long ranking in the top 20 in defensive efficiency and NC State’s defense has really played well down the stretch ranking 37th nationally in efficiency since the start of the ACC tourney (8 game sample). In the Dance NC State has 67, 66, 58 and 64 points and that includes 3 opponents who rank in the top 30 in offensive efficiency (Duke, Marquette, and Texas Tech). On the other end we think the Wolfpack will have problems scoring inside vs Purdue and Zach Edey who will make it much more difficult for DJ Burns, who had 29 points vs Duke, to score inside. That means NCSU will have to be lights out from beyond the arc which is not their strength (143rd in 3 point FG%). In their last 2 games Purdue held Tennessee (28th in offensive efficiency) to 66 points and Gonzaga (5th in offensive efficiency) to 68 points. Both of these teams have gone Under the total in 3 of their 4 NCAA tournament games and another is on the way Saturday. Under is our play.

#681/682 ASA PLAY ON Over the Total – Indiana State vs Seton Hall, Thursday at 7 PM ET - Two peaking offenses should run this game into the 160’s on Thursday night. Seton Hall has scored 91 and 84 points in their last 2 games vs UNLV and UGA who both rank higher than Indiana State in defensive efficiency. The Pirates have averaged at least 1.14 PPP in each of their last 3 games and in their 4 NIT games they’ve shot 48% overall and 39% from beyond the arc. And every defense they’ve faced in the NIT to this point is better than ISU’s defense efficiency wise. The Hall will put up points in this game. We think the Sycamores will as well. They are a fantastic shooting team ranking 12th nationally in offensive efficiency, 1st in eFG%, 11th in 3 point FG%, and 3rd in 2 point FG%. In their 4 NIT games they’ve gotten to 100 points twice and they are averaging 90.5 PPG in those 4 games. While Seton Hall’s defense is solid (35th in defensive efficiency), State just put up 100 on Utah (top 50 defense) and 85 on Cincinnati (top 20 nationally in defensive efficiency). Indiana State likes to play fast on offense (37th nationally in adjusted tempo) and while Seton Hall’s year long numbers aren’t overly fast, they have decided to up the tempo in the NIT. In fact, since the start of the NIT tourney, the Hall ranks 45th nationally in tempo. We expect plenty of offensive possessions in this one. We don’t expect many “lost” points at the FT line in this one either with ISU hitting 80% of their freebies on the year and Seton Hall making 78%. The players have raved about the shooting lines and bouncy floor at Hinkle Field House saying it’s definitely a shooter’s gym. If the semi finals were any indication (190 total points and 151 total points) they were correct. Over is the call.

#651/652 ASA PLAY ON Over the Total – Illinois vs UConn, Saturday at 6 PM ET - We have the 2 most efficient offenses in college basketball facing off here and we look for a high scoring game. Connecticut ranks #1 in adjusted efficiency (1.27 PPP) and Illinois ranks #2 (1.26 PPP) and they’ve been even better the 2nd half of the season with both averaging 1.32 PPP since mid February (#1 and #2 nationally in that time period as well). Both average over 80 PPG and both are very balanced scoring from inside and outside so both are tough to guard. Illinois has scored at least 80 points in 16 of their last 21 games. The Huskies have scored at least 80 points in 8 of their last 14 games and they are facing an Illinois defense that would rank as the 3rd worst defense in the Big East. Both teams protect the ball very well which will limit wasted possessions and both are among the top offensive rebounding teams in the nation which should lead to a number of extra possessions. We were on the Illinois vs Iowa State over 147 on Thursday night. That was an ISU defense that was ranked #1 nationally in efficiency and isn’t nearly as good offensively as this UConn team. They finished with 141 points (72-69 Illinois win) but did so shooting a combined 40% overall and missing 18 combined FTs! That game easily could have been in the 150’s. UConn just scored 82 points on a slow paced San Diego State team that ranks 11th nationally in defensive efficiency. Now they face an Illinois team that is fast paced and is barely inside the top 100 in defensive efficiency. The Huskies will score here and while they’ve been very good defensively, we think Illinois puts up plenty of points as well as they’ve done on pretty much everyone. There are 4 defenses in the Big 10 ranked inside the top 20 nationally in efficiency (MSU, Rutgers, Maryland, Purdue) and Illinois averaged 77 PPG in those 8 contests. Both teams fully capable of reach 80+ points here and we’ll grab the Over.

#639/640 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 154.5 Points – Gonzaga vs Purdue, Friday at 7:35 PM ET - We have two of the top offenses in the nation facing off here with Purdue ranking 3rd in offensive efficiency and Gonzaga ranking 7th. As you might expect they are also 2 of the top shooting teams in the country both ranking in the top 15 and they average 85 PPG (Gonzaga) and 64 PPG on the season. This should be a fairly high possession game as the Zags like to play fast (top 90 in adjusted tempo) and Purdue, while not ranked quite as high in that metric, is fine with playing up tempo. When these 2 met back in November, Purdue won the game 73-63, but there were 73 possessions in that game so they had their chances. Just a poor shooting night for Gonzaga in general at 38% which is way below their season average of 52% which is #2 in the nation. The combined 3 point percentage in that game was also a very poor 20% (10 of 49 overall) from 2 top shooting teams (Purdue is #1 on the nation in 3 point percentage). The Bulldogs offense is humming to say the least. Since mid February they rank 2nd nationally in efficiency and #1 in eFG%. They’ve scored at least 80 points in 16 of their last 20 games and 2 of the games they did not were vs St Mary’s a top 5 defense that plays at one of the slowest rates in the country. Purdue is nearly impossible to defend with Edey controlling the middle and kicking out for 3’s if doubled and the Boilers are the top 3 point shooting team in the nation hitting almost 41%. The Zags strength is not on the defensive end ranking outside the top 40 in efficiency and even worst outside the top 170 defending the arc. This will be a keep up game in our opinion. Both teams will score points and their opponents will have to keep up on the scoreboard. Over is the call.

#631/632 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 145.5 Points – Illinois vs Iowa State, Thursday at 10:10 PM ET - Illinois just continues to put big points on the board no matter who they play. After scoring 85 in the round of 32 vs Duquesne (slow paced team with top 30 defense) the Illini have now put up at least 80 points in 16 of their last 20 games. We realize ISU has a high level defense (24th nationally in FG% allowed) but we like Illinois to still be successful offensively. Against the best defensive teams in the Big 10 the Illini offense was still high level scoring 80 on Michigan State (11th nationally in defensive efficiency), 86 on Rutgers (4th in defensive efficiency), and 85 on Maryland (12th in defensive efficiency). Illinois ranks #1 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency (1.26 PPP) and we have our doubts that ISU can slow them down. This is going to be a game that the Cyclones have to put points on the board to keep up. We think they will. As much is made about their defensive prowess, let’s remember Iowa State averages 75 PPG and they are top 50 nationally in terms of offensive efficiency. They will do well on that end of the court vs an Illinois defense that simply isn’t very good. They rank 92nd nationally in defensive efficiency (2nd worst defense remaining) and since mid February this defense is rated just 188th in efficiency. We were on ISU vs Washington State Under in the round of 32 which was a winner but that was a Wazzou team that plays great defense and slows the pace. Illinois likes to play fast and Iowa State is much faster paced this season (206th) than last season (328th) so they are not necessarily a “slow” team anymore. Both offenses will have success here and we’ll take the Over on Thursday night.

#845/846 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 143.5 Points – VCU vs South Florida, Sunday at 7:30 PM ET - Our power ratings have this total set in the high 130’s so some solid value on the Under here. Both defenses are better than the opposing offenses in this one. VCU and USF have defenses that rank in the top 45 in eFG% and both are in the top 40 defending the arc which is key here. Both offenses rely heavily on the 3 point shot with each ranking outside the top 350 in percentage of points from inside the arc. That’s a tough spot for the offenses facing formidable 3 point defenses and we anticipate tired legs which affects jump shooting teams more than anything. VCU is playing their 6th game in 12 days (all away from home) and USF if playing their 4th game in 10 days. We wouldn’t look for either team to light it up from deep in this game. Both are poor offensive rebounding teams so 2nd chance points should be minimal. VCU is a very slow paced team and they get their tempo for the most part. Especially down the stretch where they faced 2 fast paced teams in the A10 tourney (UMass & St Joes) and those 2 games ended with only 61 and 63 offensive possessions. The Rams have played 7 straight games where the total ended 140 or less and we look for another here. We like the Under in this NIT battle.

#839/840 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 168.5 Points – Alabama vs Grand Canyon, Sunday at 7:10 PM ET - Two fast paced teams with Bama ranking 4th nationally in possessions per game and Grand Canyon ranking 114th. The Antelopes are actually very similar offensively (tempo, PPP, eFG%) to Bama’s first round opponent College of Charleston and we know how that one turned out (Bama 109 to 96 final score). We were impressed with Grand Canyon’s offense in their NCAA opener vs St Mary’s where they put up 75 points on the Gaels who are one of the slowest paced teams in the nation and a top 5 defense efficiency wise. Now they face a fast paced team that struggles defensively with the Crimson Tide ranking 117th in defensive efficiency, 141st in eFG% allowed, and 353rd in scoring defense giving up 82 PPG. We look for GC to have success on offense tonight. On the other end, Bama is just an offensive juggernaut. They rank 3rd nationally in efficiency, 5th in FG’s made per game, 3rd in 3 pointers made per game and #1 nationally in scoring putting up 91 PPG. With a great offense and suspect defense, Bama’s games have averaged 172 total points this season. Here’s a crazy stat…In Alabama’s last 10 games, at least 1 team (Bama or their opponent) has scored 100+ points and the 2 prior to that one of the teams scored at least 99 points. Thus in 9 of their last 12 games, someone has scored at least 99 points. These 2 have combined to go 43-22-1 to the Over this season. This is a high total for a reason. Over is the play.

#799/800 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 129 Points – Washington State vs Iowa State, Saturday at 6:10 PM ET - Two of the very best defenses in the nation squaring off in this game. Iowa State ranks 2nd nationally in defensive efficiency and Wazzou ranks 22nd. ISU allows just 61 PPG and that was playing in a Big 12 conference with 5 teams ranked in the top 30 in offensive efficiency. Washington State gives up 66 PPG and they just allowed 61 points to a Drake offense that was rolling coming into the game averaging 84 PPG over their previous 11 games entering last night. The Cougars held a very potent Colorado offense (25th in offensive efficiency) to 58 points in the Pac 12 tourney the their other conference tourney game they limited fast paced Stanford to 62 points. The best offense by far in the Pac 12 was Arizona (88PPG – 3rd most nationally) and in their 2 games vs the Cats they held them 15 points below their season average (74 & 73 points in 2 games vs WSU). This should be a very slow paced game as well with Washington State ranking 312th in adjusted tempo and ISU is middle of the pack in that stat but can play either way, fast or slow. The Cyclones have stepped it up defensively late in the year holding their last 9 opponents to 65 points or less. In the Big 12 tourney they held KSU to 57 points, Baylor (one of the top 3 point shooting teams in the nation & scored 92 in their NCAA opening game) to 62 points and then stopped Houston in their tracks with just 41 points. Neither offense shoots many 3’s both ranking outside the top 290 in percentage of points from deep, so this one will mainly be played inside the arc. With the winner heading to the Sweet 16, both teams lean on their strength here which is defense. Under is the call.

#769/770 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 158.5 Points – Colorado vs Florida, Friday at 4 PM ET - This one is going to be a track meet. The Gators rank 18th in adjusted tempo and 10th nationally in offensive possessions per game. While the Buffs aren’t as fast, they aren’t slow either. They are 143rd in possessions per game and in the top 100 in average possession length on offense so they get shots off fairly quickly. Offense is the strength of both teams with Florida ranking 15th in offensive efficiency and Colorado coming in at 27th. They also rank 7th (Florida at 85 PPG) and 38th (Colorado at 79 PPG) in scoring. When they do miss shots, both the Gators and Buffs are among the best offensive rebounding teams in the country so look for a number of 2nd chances on both ends. They both get to the FT line at a decent rate so we should see plenty of FT attempts as well. Neither defense is great a limiting opponents scoring with Florida giving up 78 PPG (323rd nationally) and Colorado allowing 71 PPG (187th). They also both rank outside the top 155 in opponent FG%. The Gators and their opponents have reached at least 155 points in 12 of their last 16 games. The team in the Pac 12 that is most similar to Florida in regards to pace is Arizona. They are almost identical. They are also very close offensive efficiency wise. In their 2 games vs Zona, the Buffs gave up 99 & 97 points and the 2 teams combined for 147 points and 178 points. In their first meeting Arizona did their job offensively but CU scored only 50 points on a terrible 0.69 PPP. The Buffs were without 2 of their best players in that game but when at full strength in the 2nd game the points were abundant. These teams have combined for a 42-27-1 to the Over this year and we project both to get into the 80’s.

#853/854 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 134 Points – Baylor vs Iowa State, Friday at 9:30 PM ET - This total is much too low according to our power ratings. We have this total set at 140 so as of this writing we’re getting 6 full points of value on the Over. These teams met once this season and that total was set at 142 and while they went Under that number, they still totaled 138 points in that game. The 2 teams combined to shoot just 42% in that game and we expect better shooting numbers tonight. Baylor is one of the top offensive teams in the nation averaging 81 PPG along with ranking 5th nationally in adjusted efficiency and 5th in 3 point percentage hitting 40% of their triples on the season. They are facing an ISU defense that is very good but they aren’t great defending the arc ranking 76th nationally. In their only meeting, the Bears hit 12 triples and we’d expect another solid effort from deep from this outstanding offense. The Bears also get to the FT line more than anyone in the Big 12 and ISU fouls a lot. On the other side, ISU averages 71 PPG on the season and while they aren’t as dynamic offensively as Baylor, they do rank in the top 70 nationally in efficiency. They’ll also be facing a Baylor defense that simply isn’t very good this year. They allow over 70 PPG and rank 12th in the Big 12 in defensive efficiency, eFG% allowed, and 2 point FG% allowed. These teams both played low scoring games yesterday which is keeping this total low. ISU faced Kansas State who is much worse offensively than Baylor (KSU 12th in offensive efficiency in the Big 12) and much better defensively than the Bears (KSU 4th in defensive efficiency) yet the total in that game was 135 which is higher than this number? ISU & KSU totaled 133 points in that game with the Cyclones scoring 76 points vs a really good defense despite making only 1 of 14 three point shots. Baylor beat Cincinnati 68-56 with the teams combining to barely shoot 40% and just 24% from deep. We really like the value with this low total and our play is Over.

#809/810 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 137 Points – Wisconsin vs Northwestern, Friday at 2:30 PM ET - This total is light by about 3 points according to our power ratings so we’ll grab the value on the Over. While both teams are slow paced, the offenses on each side are much better than the defenses. Both rank in the top 30 nationally in offensive efficiency and after their home finale vs Minnesota in which the Wildcats put up 90 points, head coach Chris Collins mentioned he’s been extremely happy with his offense this year. This year, we’ve been a terrific offense,” Collins said. “We’ve been really efficient and (have) shot the ball incredibly well.” The Cats are averaging 76 PPG in league playing ranking 4th in the Big 10. Wisconsin is average 75 PPG in conference play ranking 7th. Wisconsin & NW have had very solid defensive teams in the recent past but that really hasn’t been the case this season with both ranking outside the top 230 nationally in eFG% allowed. They are both allowing more than 72 PPG in conference play after they both allowed less than 67 PPG in league play last season. NW’s offense thrives on the 3 point shot with almost 35% of their points in conference play coming from deep (2nd most) and they are facing a Wisconsin defense that ranks dead last in the Big 10 allowing opponents to shoot almost 40% from deep. The Badgers found their offensive rhythm here yesterday putting up 89 points Maryland who came into that game #1 in defensive efficiency in Big 10 play. While we don’t expect UW to shoot as well as they did yesterday, they should still find plenty of success vs a NW defense that ranks 11th in the Big 10 in defensive efficiency. Northwestern’s conference games this year have averaged 149 total points and Wisconsin’s have averaged 147 total points. We like this game to get into the 140’s so Over is the play.

#739/740 ASA PLAY ON Under 154 Points – Ohio State vs Iowa, Thursday at 6:30 PM ET - OSU has turned the corner and they are playing great basketball since they fired their head coach Holtmann. Since firing Holtmann the Buckeyes have won 5 of 6 and they’ve gotten in done in the defensive end. The game after Holtmann was let go they held the Big 10s top scoring team, Purdue, to just 69 points (Boilers average 84 PPG). OSU has since held their last 4 opponents to less than 1.00 PPP and they’ve held those 4 opponents to less than 60 PPG. The Bucks offense isn’t great ranking in the lower half of the Big 10 in scoring, FG% and 3 point FG% so interim coach Diebler has really stressed working on the defensive end and it’s paid off. Iowa likes to play up tempo but you can bet OSU will slow this game down. In their only meeting this season in Iowa City, the Buckeyes lost a close one 79-77 and there were only 65 possessions in that game. Both teams eclipsed their season offensive efficiency averages in that game with Iowa averaging 1.22 PPP (they average 1.12 in Big 10 play) and OSU averaging 1.18 PPG in that game (they average 1.08 in conference play). Even with those numbers the game only reach 156 total points. Since mid February, both of these defenses have improved dramatically with OSU ranking 15th nationally in PPP allowed (61st overall on the season) and Iowa ranking 79th (147th overall on the season). The Hawks offensive numbers drop off dramatically on the road where they average 11 PPG fewer than at home and OSU puts up 5 PPG fewer on the road compared to at home. This is an Under play on Thursday.

#685/686 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 126 Points – Rutgers vs Maryland, Wednesday at 6:30 PM ET - These are the #1 and #2 teams in the Big 10 in regards to defensive efficiency. They both rank in the top 12 nationally in that statistic with both allowing less than 0.95 adjusted PPP. Both defenses also make opposing offenses really work for shots, opponents average a shot every 18 seconds, putting them both in the top 40 in that category. While we have the 2 best defensive teams in the Big 10, we also have the 2 worst offensive teams squaring off in this one. They rank 13th and 14th in conference scoring and both rank outside the top 325 in FG%. We don’t expect many points from beyond the arc in this one as Rutgers ranks 346th nationally making just 29% of their triples and the Terps rank 352nd making only 28%. In their 2 meetings this season they combined to make only 13 combined 3’s and shot just 21% combined from deep. These teams met twice this season and totaled 109 points both times. Both games were low possessions games (60 & 65) and we expect the same tempo in this one. Rutgers & Maryland have combined to play 62 games this season with 40 of those going Under the total. They’ve also gone Under their last 6 meetings and not one of those 6 games reached 130 points. Playing in an unfamiliar NBA Arena (Target Center in Minneapolis) we would suggest their shooting numbers may end up worse than they normally are. Under is the play.

#645/646 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 152.5 Points – Virginia Tech vs Florida State, Wednesday at 12 PM ET - These teams met twice this season and totaled 158 and 151 points in those 2 games so we’re looking for this one to get into the 150’s again at worst. FSU is the fastest paced team in the ACC and they land in the top 30 nationally in adjusted tempo. VT is middle of the pack in tempo both in the ACC and nationally so they are not a slow paced team. The Hokies played 6 ACC games vs teams ranked in the top 100 in adjusted tempo and 4 of those games reached the 150’s or higher. The only 2 that did not were their 2 games vs Louisville (totaled 143 & 144) and in those games the Cards, who rank 13th in the ACC in offensive efficiency & eFG%, didn’t do their part offensively not hitting 70 in either game. We don’t anticipate that being a problem for FSU who ranks 4th in the ACC averaging 77 PPG in league play. Va Tech’s offense ranks #1 I the conference in eFG% and since February 1st the rank 19th nationally in offensive efficiency. The Hokies lead the ACC in FG% as well and FSU is 4th in that category. Both offenses are better than the opposing defenses as FSU & VT rank 12th and 13th in eFG% allowed in ACC play and 9th and 13th in PPG allowed. Because both have solid offenses and shaky defenses, it wasn’t surprising to see these 2 combine to hit 47% of their shots in the first 2 meetings. We expect similar shooting results here. 4 of the last 5 in this series have gone Over the total and we look for another high scoring game on Wednesday.

#871/872 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 135.5 Points – Santa Clara vs St Mary’s, Monday at 9 PM ET - These teams played 2 very different games when they faced off this season with one totaling 121 points and the other 159 points. The one thing that was consistent in both match ups was both were low possession games (58 & 65 possessions). That’s how St Mary’s plays ranking 358th in adjusted tempo and 350th in possessions per game. Santa Clara prefers to play fast but based on the possession numbers of their 2 meetings, STM will again control this tempo and make it a slow game. In their high scoring game that reached 159 points, the 2 teams combined for a whopping 44 made FT’s which was an aberration as both rank outside the top 200 (St Mary’s outside the top 300) in percentage of points from the FT line. Neither teams gets there very often as they combined to average 36 FT attempts per game yet in that contest they attempted 61. Much of the scoring was late with SC fouling to try and catch up. In fact, with under 2:00 minutes remaining the teams had scored 129 total points and put up a ridiculous 30 points from that point on. The other meeting that totaled 121 points was more indicative of how we think this game will play out. STM’s defense is one of the best in the country. They rank #1 in both efficiency and eFG% allowed in WCC play. They are allowing just 58 PPG on WCC games which is by far the best in the league. SC’s offense struggled to shoot well vs STM’s this season hitting just 40% of their shots (both games combined) and their offense has regressed drastically over the last month. For the season Santa Clara ranks 103rd in eFG% (5th in the WCC) but since February 1st they rank 263rd in that category. Defensively they’ve gotten much better ranking 36th in eFG% allowed and 63rd in defensive efficiency since February 1st. That’s not a huge surprise as SC head coach Herb Sendek (former HC at NC State & Arizona State) has always been defensive minded. Defenses are the strengths of both teams in this slow paced game so we’ll grab the Under.

#813/814 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 171 Points – Illinois vs Iowa, Sunday at 7 PM ET - These teams met at the end of February in Illinois and put up 180 points with the Illini winning 95-85. It was an up tempo game as to be expected with 74 possessions. These teams rank #2 and #3 in the Big 10 in adjusted tempo and both are in the top 70 nationally in that statistic. Both teams shot well in that game but not fantastic each hitting right around their average. They combined to hit 48% of their shots overall and 35% of their triples which again is near their season averages. Both made 20+ FT’s which isn’t a surprise as Iowa hits 80% of their freebies in league play and Illinois makes 77%. Both offenses rank in the top 10 nationally in efficiency and more recently, since February 1st, the Illini are #1 nationally in offensive efficiency and Iowa is 8th. On the other end of the court both defenses rank outside the top 100 and they have been worse recently, again since February 1st, ranking 227th and 236th in defensive efficiency. In conference play, these are 2 of the worst in the Big 10 with Iowa ranking 13th in defensive efficiency and dead last in eFG% allowed while Illinois ranks 9th in defensive efficiency and dead last in 3 point FG% allowed. Illinois has scored at least 80 points in 9 of their last 10 games averaging 89 PPG during that 10 game stretch. At home, the Hawkeyes are averaging 90 PPG on the season and they’ve put up at least 80 points in all but 3 of their 16 home games this year. These teams are combined 41-19 to the Over this season and we anticipate another high scoring game in Iowa City on Sunday.

#605/606 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 162 Points – Memphis vs Florida Atlantic, Saturday at 12 PM ET - These teams met 2 weeks ago and Memphis won that game 78-74. The total in that game was set at 160 and it went Under yet now the total on Saturday is set higher at 162 (opener). That was a fast paced game with 70 possessions and we expect a similar game here as both like to play up tempo, especially Memphis who ranks 18th in adjusted tempo. Neither team shot well in that game with both hitting 44% of their shots (which is below both of their season averages) and from beyond the arc it was a brutal effort as they combined to make only 12 of their 55 attempts for 22%. That was well below their season averages of 35% (Memphis) and 36% (FAU). They each made only 11 FT’s in the game which was low as both rank in the top 100 in FT’s made per game at 17 (FAU) and 15 (Memphis). Both dominated the offensive glass in that game (both rebounded 36% of their misses leading to 2nd chances and we expect that to remain the same as neither team is very good on the defensive glass (both outside the top 200). We have the #1 & #2 most efficient offenses in the AAC facing off here in a game and both average 83 PPG on the season. We expect both teams to reach the 80’s in this one and we’ll call for the Over to hit early on Saturday.

#849/850 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 154.5 Points – Chattanooga vs Furman, Sunday at 2 PM ET - These are the 2nd and 3rd scoring teams in the SoCon both averaging right about 80 PPG on the season. Defensively both teams rank outside the top 200 in defensive efficiency so the strength is with the offense on both sides. Both have preferred a faster pace ranking 3rd in 4th in SoCon in tempo so we should have plenty of possessions. Neither team creates turnovers at a high rate so we should see many wasted trips on offense. Chattanooga’s offense is rolling scoring at least 79 points in 7 of their last 8 games. Furman was missing some key players early in the conference schedule including leading scorer Foster but he’s now been back for 9 games and the offense has been very good at home averaging 82 PPG on 48% shooting. When they met back in January the total was set at 155.5 and they didn’t come close with Chattanooga winning 73-58. Furman played that game without Foster and they combined to shoot only 37% from the field including a terrible 11 of 55 (20%) from beyond the arc. Neither team averaged 1.00 PPP in that game which is WAY below their averages of 1.16 PPP (UTC) and 1.08 PPP (Furman) in conference play. Both offenses play much better here and this one goes Over the Total.

#697/698 ASA PLAY ON Under 146 Points – Iowa vs Maryland, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - Iowa likes to play up tempo but Maryland will want to slow this game down (304th in tempo) and limit Iowa’s offensive possessions. We feel they’ll get the pace they want at home. Iowa’s offensive numbers are very solid but they are a completely differently team on the road on that end of the court. The Hawkeyes average 13 fewer PPG on the road this season and shoot just 45% compared to almost 50% at home. We highly doubt Iowa reaches their offensive averages on the road here vs a Maryland defense that ranks #1 in the Big 10 (conference games) in defensive efficiency, eFG% defense, and scoring defense. They also make offenses work very hard to get a shot off with the Terps allowing a shot every 18.2 seconds which is in the top 25 nationally. Offensively Maryland struggles so they need to win slow paced, low scoring games. They rank dead last in the Big 10 in scoring (conference games), 13th in offensive efficiency, and 13th in eFG%. The Terps games in conference play have averaged just 130 total points and that includes 2 OT games. If we subtract OT games, Maryland has not topped 142 total points in any conference game this season. When these 2 met in Iowa, where Hawks games average 172 total points, they put up just 136 (Maryland 69-67 win).

#659/660 ASA PLAY ON Over 163 Points – VMI vs Furman, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - These 2 met in mid January and the total was set at 166 and they scored 160 points. We’re getting this one a full 3 points lower than the first meeting (as of the opener which was 163) and we like the value on the Over. In the first meeting the 2 teams combined to shoot 43.7% from the field (nothing great) and the combined to make only 17 FT’s in the game and they still reached 160 points. Furman put up 100 points in that game (100-60 final score) which may seem like an anomaly but that is not the case when facing this VMI defense. In fact, the Cadets have played 12 conference games this season and allowed at least 100 points in nearly half of those games (5)! On the season VMI is allowing 94 PPG in SoCon play. They rank outside the top 300 in defensive efficiency, eFG% allowed, 2 point FG% allowed, and 3 point FG% allowed and they play at the 2nd fastest pace in the nation per KenPom. Needless to say we expect Furman, who averages over 80 PPG on the season, to possibly reach triple digits again. VMI’s offense doesn’t have good shooting numbers, however because they play so fast they average over 70 PPG on the season. They’ve scored at least 70 points in 7 of their 12 SoCon games this season. VMI is also facing a Furman defense that isn’t great ranking 321st in FG% allowed, 350th in FG made per game, and 331st in FG attempted per game. The Paladins also play very fast 59th in tempo per KenPom. We should have tons of offensive possessions in this game and the offenses should rule the day. Over is the play.

#773/774 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 151 Points – Georgia Tech vs Louisville, Saturday at 6:30 PM ET - Don’t look now but the Cards offense has been flat out really good over their last few games. They put up 101 points at home last weekend vs FSU and then followed that up with 92 points @ Syracuse on Wednesday. They averaged 1.25 and 1.17 PPP in those 2 games. While their offense seems to absolutely be peaking, the Cards defense stinks. They’ve allowed 90+ points in each of their last 2 games and they’ve given up at least 80 points in 7 of their 12 ACC games. They rank dead last in the ACC in defensive efficiency, eFG% allowed, and PPG allowed (81 PPG) in league games. Georgia Tech’s defense isn’t any better. They rank 13th (out of 14) in the ACC in defensive efficiency and PPG allowed (80 PPG). The Yellow Jackets have allowed at least 80 points in every ACC road game this season. So we have the 2 worst defenses in the conference going head to head here. We’re also going to have a faster paced game with Louisville really focusing on up tempo as of late and for the season they rank 71st in tempo. Tech doesn’t mind playing fast and their offense ranks 6th in the conference in eFG% and 3 point FG%. They should do some damage vs this poor Card defense. Tech’s road games in conference play have totaled 158, 158, 183, 163, and 153 points. Louisville’s home games in league play have totaled 193, 121 (vs Virginia great defense, slow pace), 152, 171, and 153 points. The opener of 151 is too low for these teams. We’ll go Over the total.

#693/694 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 163 Points – Alabama vs Auburn, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - These 2 met back in late January with the total set at 161 points they stayed Under hitting 154. Now, despite that game going Under the total, tonight’s total opened 2 points higher than where the total in January closed. Interesting. The oddsmakers are seeing the same things we are. In that first game both teams played well below their offensive averages for the season. Bama hit just 38% of their shots while Auburn hit just under 41% and they were a combined 54 for 135 for just 40%. From beyond the arc they combined to make only 16 of 55 attempts for 29%. When we look at their points per possession numbers, Bama was 1.05 PPP and Auburn was 1.00 PPP. Even with those poor offensive numbers, these 2 still hit 154 total points! Comparing those PPP numbers, For the season both rank in the top 15 in offensive efficiency (PPP) with the Crimson Tide averaging 1.26 and Auburn 1.19. So as you can see, neither team was anywhere close to what they average for the year. Bama leads the nation in scoring averaging 90 PPG and Auburn is in the top 25 at 83 PPG. Both teams play very fast so we expect lots of possessions. Both defenses foul a lot as well with each ranking in the top 90 in opponents percentage of points at the FT line and when they get there, Bama hits 79% and Auburn makes 76%. The Crimson Tide have scored at least 80 points in 16 of their 22 games this season and the Tigers have also hit at least 80 points in 16 of their 22 games. We look for both teams to hit at least 80 in this one so we like the Over on Wednesday night.

#601/602 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 127.5 Points – Rutgers vs Maryland, Tuesday at 6:30 PM ET - Two of the best defensive teams in the nation squaring off here should lead to very low scoring game. They both rank in the top 6 nationally in defensive efficiency and when we narrow it down to Big 10 games only, Maryland is #1 in that category and Rutgers is #2. They both make opposing offense work to get decent shots with the average offensive possession vs these defenses last 18.2 seconds. That ranks both in the top 30 nationally. They both create lots of turnovers (each ranked in top 50) which should lead to a number of empty possessions. Shooting will be a problem in this one. These are the 2 worst shooting teams in the conference in Big 10 play with each making less than 40% of their shots. They are also poor 3 point shooting teams ranking 13th and 14th in the conference in 3 point FG% and neither shoots very many from deep. On top of all that, the Scarlet Knights and Terps are also the 2 lowest scoring teams in the conference, both in league games and overall. These 2 Big 10 rivals have faced each other 4 times since January of 2021 and none of those games have topped 128 total points so they are used to playing low scoring grinders. They played once last season and tallied 114 total points. The Terps are a very slow paced team and should get the tempo at home which will limit possessions for both teams. Under is the play.

#627/628 ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 150 Points – Creighton vs Marquette, Saturday at 2 PM ET - Two of the top offensive teams in the country facing off here and we expect a shootout on the scoreboard. Both rank in the top 30 nationally in offensive efficiency with Creighton averaging 1.16 adjusted PPP and Marquette 1.15. Creighton ranks 4th in the nation in eFG% and Marquette is in the top 45. The Blue Jays average 83 PPG but that moves up to 84 PPG on the road so no drop off whatsoever. The Golden Eagles step in averaging 78.5 PPG but at home they are much more comfortable offensively averaging 87 PPG on over 50% shooting. Creighton has scored at least 79 points in 9 of their 12 games this season and Marquette has scored at least 75 points in 8 of their 13 games. The Eagles like to play fast ranking in the top 100 in pace. Creighton is middle of the pack in pace, however, they’ve played mainly slow paced teams this year with the exception of 2. In their 2 games vs teams ranked inside the top 100 in pace (Bama & Iowa), they totaled 176 and 167 points. We expect plenty of possessions in this game with the offenses in control. Over is the call.

#729/730 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 128.5 Points – UCLA vs Oregon State, Thursday at 10 PM ET - The defenses for each of these teams will be the best 2 units on the floor. Both rank in the to 50 in FG% allowed and they both allow only 30% from beyond the arc. UCLA is allowing only 62 PPG (14th best nationally) despite already facing 4 teams ranked in the top 35 in the country in offensive efficiency. Oregon State is allowing 69 PPG but 3 of their games have gone to OT and 2 went to double OT so those numbers are higher than they should be. The Beavers have held 4 of their last 5 opponents to 65 points or less. These 2 offenses have struggled all season and we don’t see that changing here. They shoot just 42% (UCLA) and 43% (OSU) on the season and neither team is hitting 30% of their 3 pointers. Neither offense scores many points from deep both ranking outside the top 320 in percentage of points from outside the arc. We don’t look for many offensive possessions here as we have 2 slow paced teams facing off. That is especially the case on the defensive end where both teams make their opponents work very hard to get good shots. UCLA allows a shot attempts every 18.3 seconds and Oregon State allows a shot attempt every 18.5 seconds (both in the top 30 in the country). Last year these 2 totaled 109 points in their only meeting and we anticipate another grinder on Thursday night.

#881/882 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 126.5 Points – Jacksonville State vs Tarleton State, Monday at 8 PM ET - Defense is definitely the strength of these 2 teams. They both rank in the top 25 nationally in scoring defense allowing right around 62 PPG. Offensively both of these teams struggle to make shots ranking outside the top 200 in efficiency, eFG%, 2 point FG%, and 3 point FG%. JSU has played only 4 teams this year that have a defensive efficiency rank inside the top 200. They have not topped 60 points in any of those games and they averaged just 56 PPG. Tarleton State hasn’t played a defense with a pulse since November and in their 5 games vs defenses ranked inside the top 200 in efficiency they are averaging 65 PPG. We expect very few possessions this game as both are slow paced (313th and 322nd in possession per game). Both are very deliberate on offense especially with each averaging 19 seconds per possession which ranks them 335th in the nation. Three point shots will be kept at a minimum in this one as neither relies heavily on the deep ball. JSU averages 16 three point attempts per game and TSU averages 15 ranking them 335th and 344th respectively. When the do take a shot from beyond the arc, they are hitting just 30% (both teams) which is not good. Lastly, neither team gets to the FT line very often so we should be getting very few points with the clock stopped. Defenses and slow pace rule here so we grab the Under.

#639/640 ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 123.5 Points – North Texas vs Boise State, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - Two very good defensive teams that play very slow should lead to a low scoring game here. North Texas is notorious for playing as slow as any team in the country and this year is no different as they rank 358th out of 362 teams in average possession per game at 64. Boise State is right near the bottom as well in that statistic ranking 301st at 68 possessions per game. Both teams rank inside the top 65 nationally in defensive efficiency allowing less than 1.0 PPP. Both also rank outside the top 115 in offensive efficiency and outside the top 300 in field goals made per game. Boise has played 6 games vs Division 1 opponents and only 2 of those have topped 126 total points. Those games were vs Va Tech and Clemson who rank inside the top 65 nationally in offensive efficiency. UNT has scored 79 points in each of their last 2 games but one was vs Angelo State and the other vs Mississippi Valley State who ranks 355th in defensive efficiency. Prior to that they played 3 straight neutral site games and averaged just 59 PPG in those games. What impressed us was in their neutral site games they faced 2 efficient offenses who are fast paced and held them to 53 points (St Johns) and 66 points (LSU). Those 2 games vs much faster paced and better offensive teams than Boise ended with total points scored of 105 and 128 respectively. This one should be a grinder and we’ll grab the Under.

#863/864 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 158.5 Points – Furman vs Arkansas, Monday at 8 PM ET - In this one we have 2 of the faster paced teams in the country so we’ll get plenty of offensive possessions. The Razors are 35th in possession per game at 76.4 and Furman is 58th averaging 75.5. Both offenses are averaging over 80 PPG on the season and each defense allows north of 75 PPG. Arkansas has played 5 home games and scored at least 80 in 4 of those games for an average of 84 PPG. They should have plenty of success here vs a Furman defense that ranks 227th in defensive efficiency and 258th in eFG% defense. The Paladins have played 5 games away from home this season (road + neutral games) and they’ve given up at least 78 points in 4 of those games for an average of 82 PPG. Furman can put up points as we discussed and they are very good shooting team hitting nearly 49% of their shots on the season (36th nationally). Not an aberration as they return a number of key players from last year’s team which finished with a 26-8 record and landed in the top 30 in shooting percentage. These teams have combined to play 15 games this season and 12 have gone Over the total. We’ll call for another high scoring game on Monday night.

#649/650 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 136 Points – Illinois vs Rutgers, Saturday at 4 PM ET - The last 2 years these 2 teams have met twice and the total points scored didn’t reach 130 in either game. We see a similar scenario playing out on Saturday. These were 2 of the top defensive teams in the country last season (both in top 25 in defensive efficiency) and that’s continued this year where they are both currently in the top 15 in the country in defensive efficiency. As far as straight defensive FG% these teams are currently #1 and #2 in the nation with the Illini allowing teams to make only 34% of their shots and the Scarlet Knights allowing 34.6%. Illinois has held 4 of their 6 opponents to 60 points or less and only Marquette who plays fast and is the 7th most efficient offense in the country, got to 70 points (71-64 Final). Rutgers has also given up 60 points or less in 4 of their 6 games and the most they’ve allowed this year is 68. On offense neither is all that great. Rutgers has topped 71 points only once this season yet they haven’t played a single defense ranked in the top 100 in KenPom’s defensive efficiency ratings. The Illini have better overall numbers on offense but they’ve faced only 2 defenses all season ranked inside the top 150 and they were held to 64 points in each of those games. Both offenses rank outside the top 220 in 3 point FG% and neither shoot FT’s very well (57% for Illinois & 65% for Rutgers). Illinois prefers to play fast but Rutgers is a slow paced team and at home so we expect them to control the tempo here. Under is the call.

#711/712 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 133.5 Points – San Diego State vs UConn, Monday at 9:20 PM ET - We were on the Under in the SDSU vs FAU game on Saturday and came up short in the 72-71 final. Both teams shot very well from deep combining to make 18 of 40 three point attempts (45%). They also averaged 1.11 PPP and 1.12 PPP which was well above what those 2 defenses gave up this season (SDSU 0.90 PPP allowed / FAU 0.95 PPP allowed). They also combined to attempt 43 FT’s on the night. All of that led to a higher scoring game than expected. The UConn vs Miami game stayed Under by nearly 20 points (131 points scored and total was 150ish). The Huskies defense has been fantastic during this impressive tourney run shutting down a number of teams that have much better overall offenses than the SDSU team they will face on Monday night. UConn allowed 59 points to Miami who ranks as the 6th most efficient offense in the nation and averages 80 PPG. The game prior to that the Huskies faced a Gonzaga offense that ranks #1 nationally in efficiency and held them to 54 points which is 34 points below their season average of 88 PPG (#1 nationally). Now they face a San Diego State offense that ranks 68th nationally in offensive efficiency and has averaged just 67 PPG in the NCAA tourney. We expect the Aztecs won’t reach 60 points in this game. On the other end of the court, SDSU’s strength is obviously on the defensive end where they rank 4th nationally in efficiency and 3rd in the country in eFG% allowed. Prior to allowing FAU to hit 71 points, the Aztecs had given up an average of just 57 PPG in the tourney. The Owls were able to be successful from 3 point land in that game (44%) but leading into that one, the San Diego State defense had allowed opponents to make only 17% of their 3’s in this tourney. They rank 3rd nationally on the season defending the arc which could be a problem for a Connecticut team that relies heavily on the 3 point shot. The Huskies have faced 4 fast paced teams in the Big Dance and the one slower paced team they played (St Mary’s) the 2 teams totaled 125 points. Both of these teams rank outside the top 200 in adjusted tempo so this shouldn’t be a fast paced game. UConn’s offense put up 72 on Saturday vs a Miami defense that ranks 99th in efficiency and prior to that they faced a fast paced Gonzaga team whose defense ranks 73rd in efficiency. They take a big step up here taking on one of the top defensive teams in the country. We don’t expect UConn to reach 70 in this game and we already mentioned that SDSU will have a tough time getting to 60. Under is the play in the National Championship Game.

#701/702 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 132 Points – Florida Atlantic vs San Diego State, Saturday at 6 PM ET - This match up is very similar to FAU’s Sweet 16 game vs Tennessee. We were on the Under in that game (129) and the 2 combined for just 117 points. We see a similar outcome for this game. SDSU and Tennessee compare very favorably in offensive efficiency (not a strength of either) and defensive efficiency (both top 5 in the nation). They are also almost identical in tempo with both being slow paced. The Aztecs defense has been great all season but they’ve stepped it up another notch in the Big Dance where they’ve allowed an average of just 57 PPG and held 3 of their 4 opponents to under 60 points. The only team that topped 60 points on SDSU was Alabama who averaged 82 PPG (7th nationally) but only had 64 vs the Aztecs. We were on the Over in SDSU’s most recent game vs a very efficiency Creighton offense who wants to push the ball and that game ended 57-56. FAU’s defense is underrated. They rank 29th nationally in defensive efficiency and 14th in eFG% allowed. The Owls have held 3 of their 4 NCAA tourney opponents to 70 points or less and 3 of those opponents were fast paced teams (Memphis, KSU, and Farleigh Dickinson). The one slow paced team they faced was Tennessee and we mentioned how that game turned out. We don’t expect many 3 pointers in this game which will help the Under. FAU likes to shoot 3’s but they are facing a San Diego State defense thar ranks 2nd nationally defending the arc. In this tournament alone, the Aztecs have allowed opponents to make only 17% of their triples! On the other end of the court, San Diego State is not a great 3 point shooting team and they don’t shoot many (just 28% of their points come from deep – 277th nationally). The Final 4 is being played at NRG Stadium in Houston which is a huge NFL stadium. It’s often very tough to shoot in a venue like this as the backdrop is completely different than what teams are used to. This will be the 14th basketball game ever played at NRG Stadium and 8 of the first 13 went Under (62%) by an average of 6 points. Low scoring grinder here and we like the Under.

#657/658 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 134.5 Points – San Diego State vs Creighton, Sunday at 2:20 PM ET - Creighton’s offense has been rolling in the NCAA tourney scoring 72, 85, and 86 points. Their last 2 games they averaged 1.21 PPP and 1.24 PPP vs Baylor and Princeton reaching 161 total points in each of those wins. Since March 1st the Blue Jays have averaged 82 PPG on 1.20 PPP which ranks them 16th nationally during that time period. The Aztecs averaged 73 PPG on the season and they just put up 71 points on Alabama who has the 3rd most efficient defense in the nation. Bama only had 64 points but had a brutal night from beyond the arc making just 3 of 27 (11%) and that game and they put up only 0.86 PPP. The 2 teams combined to shoot only 35% in the game and it still reached 135 total points despite that brutal offensive effort. We expect the Aztecs offense to play much better here vs a Creighton defense that allowed 75 points to Princeton on Friday and has given up at least 70 points in 7 of their last 9 games. Creighton games have totaled at least 135 points in 11 straight games. The Jays will want to play fast and while San Diego State is a slower paced team, when they fast an up tempo team on Friday (Bama) the 2 teams combined for 140 shot attempts and 42 FT attempts. This total is set too low in our opinion and we’ll take the Over.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 144 Florida Atlantic vs. Kansas State, 6:10 PM ET - Our predictive analytics have this game finishing with 151 or more total points as we expect both teams to score in the high 70’s or above. Markquis Nowell of the Wildcats is a dynamic point guard that sees the floor extremely well and can shoot it too. He had 20-points and 19 assists in K-State’s win over Michigan State. KSU wants to play fast with the 43rd highest Adjusted Tempo rating in the nation and on average it takes them just 16.5 seconds to hoist a shot. The Wildcats rank 35th in offensive efficiency at 1.136-points per possession. They also own a 52.2EFG% which is good for 82nd. Florida Atlantic is also very capable of point up points in a hurry with an offense that was 26th in OEFF at 1.146PPP. The Owls were average in Adjusted Tempo, but their average possession length was considerably faster. FAU has an EFG% of 54.3% which is 26 in the nation and they rank 45th or better in both 3PT% and 2PT%. Looking at the Owls most recent 13 games we find they scored 90 or more points four times. They scored 70+ in 10 of their last thirteen games. Kansas State has scored 73 or more points in 7 of their last nine games. KSU averaged over 76PPG and that’s with a majority of those games coming in Big12 play where 6 of the top 27 defensive efficiency teams reside. We love the spot for a shootout! Easy OVER!

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 138 San Diego State vs. Alabama, 6:30 PM ET - We get two different styles of play here as the Tide want to play fast with the 5th fastest Adjusted Tempo in college basketball, while San Diego State is 263rd in that same category. Both teams are somewhat similar offensively with the 18th most efficient offense for Bama and the 70th for the Aztecs. What each team does exceptionally well is play defense. San Diego State allows .908-points per possession which is 6th best in the nation. They own the 28th best EFG% defense and are 4th best in defending the 3-point line. As good as the Aztecs are, the Tide are better. Bama is 3rd in DEFF allowing .881PPP, rank 1st in EFG% defense, 3rd in 3PT% defense and 1st in FG% D. These two teams have trended to the Under when playing good competition or teams with a winning percentage greater than .600. In that scenario, the Aztecs have stayed Under in 6 straight, Alabama is 5-1 Under in their last six in the same situation. Bet UNDER!

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 129.5 Florida Atlantic vs. Tennessee, 9 PM ET - The numbers from our math model suggest this is going to be a low scoring game with a final total points scored of 120. The Vols defense is rated the best in the country when it comes to efficiency ratings as they give up just .870-points per possession. They hold opponents to the 3rd lowest EFG% at 42.7%, rank 1st in 3PT% allowed at 26.4% and are 11th in overall FG% defense. To better put this into perspective the Vols defense held Alabama, the 3rd highest scoring team in the nation at 82.3PPG to just 59 points in mid-February. Tennessee just held a Duke team that was averaging 72PPG to 52-points. The Volunteers also prefer to play at a slower pace of play as they rank 278th in Adjusted Tempo and 240th in Average Possession Length at 18.1. Florida Atlantic can also play some defense as they allow just .954-points per possession which ranks them 34th. They have the 15th best EFG% defense at 45.9% and defend the 3-point line and inside the arc well. The Owls are average in tempo ranking 143rd. The Vols are on a 7-3 Under streak, Florida Atlanta is on a 4-1 Under run. We trust the Models numbers on this one and expect a very low scoring contest.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 134.5 Wisconsin @ Oregon, 9 PM ET - The Ducks are dealing with injuries with several starters missing both NIT games thus far. Reports are they will have All-Pac 12 starting center N’Faly Dante back for this game against Wisconsin and potentially Jermaine Couisnard. Those are important pieces for a Ducks team that was 53rd in defensive efficiency this season allowing just .979PPP. Oregon held opponents to 66.7PPG on the season on 41.7% shooting. The Ducks just faced UCF who is very similar to Wisconsin when it come to pace of play as the Knights averaged 64.8 possessions per game which was 307th in the nation. This Badger team is even slower yet, ranking 342nd at 63.5 and it takes them on average 19.6 seconds per possession to get a shot up (348th). Wisconsin also knows a little something about defense ranking 27th in the country in DEFF allowing just .950-points per possession. The Badgers were a very poor shooting team on the season at 41.7% (317th) and scored just 65.2PPG. Bucky is coming off a game at home where they shot 54% overall which is unlikely to happen again, especially on the road. Oregon has an adjusted tempo of 66.7 which ranks them 205th so they prefer a slower pace also. The bet here is UNDER.

#841/842 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 140.5 Points – Michigan State vs Marquette, Sunday at 5:15 PM ET - We were on the Under in the 1st round game Vermont vs Marquette and we’ll stick with that in today’s Golden Eagles match up with Michigan State. After giving up 94 points to St Johns in their home finale (a 96-94 Marquette win), the Golden Eagles knew they had to focus on playing much better defense to have a chance to succeed in the Big East tourney and then the NCAA tourney. They took the 94 points allowed to heart facing St Johns again just a few days later in the Big East tournament. They held the Johnnies to just 61 points in regulation improving by their defense by 33 points in the span of just a few days. Marquette followed that up by holding UConn to 68 points and then completely shut down Xavier to 51 points in the Big East final. In Friday’s NCAA opener they limited Vermont to 61 points on 0.97 PPP. All 4 of those defensive efforts were impressive and this Golden Eagle team is locked in on that end of the court right now. After struggling defensively their final few games of the regular season, MSU head coach Tom Izzo made it clear to his team they needed to pick it up on that end of the court. They took that to heart and held a good USC offense that averages 73 PPG to just 62 points on Friday. Even after the game Izzo stressed how his team won because they played better defense. Both defenses force opponents into long possessions with Marquette opponents taking 18.7 seconds per possession (7th best in the nation) and MSU opponents taking 18.3 seconds per possession (38th). MSU ranks 37th nationally in defensive efficiency and while Marquette struggled early in the season on that end of the court, they actually rank 22nd in defensive efficiency since February 1st. Offensively Marquette likes to play fast although they’ve slowed down considerably as of late. They’ve averaged just 68 PPG in regulation in the post season (conference & NCAA) and MSU will slow this game down (Sparty 304th in adjusted tempo). Neither team is great at offensive rebounding (both ranked outside the top 220) and neither scores many points from the FT line (both outside the top 300 in % of points from the charity stripe). We project this game to land in the mid 130’s and we love the value on the Under.

#815/816 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 127.5 Points – Northwestern vs UCLA, Saturday at 8:40 PM ET - Two slow paced teams, UCLA 235th and NW 309th in adjusted tempo, that play very good defense. UCLA ranks #1 in the nation in defensive efficiency and the Wildcats rank 19th. The Bruins allow just 60 PPG (7th nationally) while NW gives up only 62 PPG (20th). More recently, since February 1st both of these defenses rank in the top 12 nationally in efficiency. NW has allowed less than 70 points in 14 of their last 16 games while UCLA has allowed less than 70 in 12 of their last 14 games. Since losing @ USC on January 26th, the Bruins have held 11 of their last 14 opponents to less than 1.00 PPP. Offensively neither team is overly efficient away from home this season. Both barely average 1.00 PPP on the road and neither is a great shooting team. Northwestern ranks 316th in eFG% and UCLA ranks 155th. The Bruins score very little from beyond the arc (333rd in % of points from deep) and while NW takes more 3’s, they only shoot 32% from out there (275th). Lastly neither team gets to the FT line very often so we don’t look for many freebies in this game. This will be a grinder that should stay Under barring any late fouling (scramble) situations.

#743/744 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 144.5 Points – Vermont vs Marquette, Friday at 2:45 PM ET - After giving up 94 points to St Johns in their home finale (a 96-94 Marquette win), the Golden Eagles knew they had to focus on playing much better defense to have a chance to succeed in the Big East tourney and then the NCAA tourney. They took the 94 points allowed to heart facing St Johns again just a few days later in the Big East tournament. They held the Johnnies to just 61 points in regulation improving by their defense by 33 points in the span of just a few days. Marquette followed that up by holding UConn to 68 points and then completely shut down Xavier to 51 points in the Big East final. All 3 of those defensive efforts were impressive, especially the final 2 as both UConn and Xavier are ranked in the top 10 nationally in offensive efficiency. This Golden Eagle team is locked in on that end of the court right now. They are facing a Vermont offense that ranks 98th in efficiency, however they haven’t faced many top tier defensive teams this season. Their conference, America East, doesn’t have a single team ranked in the top 100 in defensive efficiency. The only top 70 defenses they’ve faced all season were St Mary’s, USC, Iona, and Yale. The Catamounts scored 53, 57, 50, and 44 points in those games respectively. Vermont is one of the slowest paced teams in the country (313th in adjusted tempo) and they know they have to slow this game down to have a chance. They were solid defensively this season ranking #1 in the conference in efficiency. Neither team is very good on the offensive glass which will mean very few 2nd chance points. Neither team fouls very much and when it comes to percentage of points at the FT line they both rank outside the top 325. Vermont makes this a slow paced game and Marquette’s defense continues to shine. Under here.

#787/788 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 154 Points – Kennesaw State vs Xavier, Friday at 12:40 PM ET - Two fast paced teams going at it here in game where we should see lots of offensive possessions. Both rank in the top 100 in offensive possessions per game while Xavier is 39th nationally in adjusted tempo and Kennesaw State is 121st. The Musketeers rank 12th in the country in scoring averaging 82 PPG while the Owls aren’t far behind averaging 76 PPG (89th in the nation). On the other end of the court, neither of these teams is all that great defensively. When it comes to guarding the 3 point arc, both are poor ranking outside the top 230 and they are facing offenses that are very good at hitting from deep with Xavier making 39.5% (3rd in the nation) and KSU making 37% (34th in the nation). The Owls defense ranked 212th this season in eFG% allowed despite the majority of their games coming in a conference (Atlantic Sun) that had only 3 teams ranked inside the top 100 in offensive efficiency. Xavier’s defense has been shaky all season allowing 74.5 PPG (305th nationally). These 2 have been cashing Overs all season long with a combined record of 40-24-2 to the Over. Should be an exciting game to watch if you like offense. High scoring and we like the Over.

#751/752 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 152 Points – Iowa vs Auburn, Thursday at 6:50 PM ET - We’ve discussed Iowa’s massive offensive dichotomy when playing at home compared to on the road many times this season. Their offensive efficiency numbers drop for 1.22 PPP at home to 0.99 PPP on the road or neutral site. They average a ridiculous 20 fewer points away from home (89 PPG at home / 69 PPG on the road). Lastly their shooting numbers on the road are 41% overall and only 28% from deep. The Hawkeyes are facing a very good defense here in Auburn. The Tigers 5th nationally defending the arc allowing opponents to shoot only 28.8%. They also rank 12th in eFG% defense and 29th in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Cats allowed just 67 PPG and we expect Iowa to struggle offensive as they often do away from home. Iowa’s defense isn’t great by any means, however the Auburn offense isn’t either. They rank outside the top 300 in 3 point FG% making only 31% and the Tigers rank just 248th in eFG%. They’ve also slowed down their pace dramatically compared to past seasons. This year they sit 165th in adjusted tempo after finishing in the top 55 the previous 2 seasons. Iowa will want to play fast but Auburn will want to slow this one down a bit. Iowa’s road games average 141 total points and Auburn’s road games averaged 142 total points. Unless both teams shoot lights out, we don’t see this getting into the 150’s. This is an unfamiliar venue for both teams and we’ll call for the Under here.

#675/676 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 127.5 Points – Bradley vs Wisconsin, Tuesday at 9:30 PM ET - We have 2 of the slowest paced teams in the country facing off in Madison on Tuesday night. The Braves rank 289th in adjusted tempo and Wisconsin ranks 348th. Defensively both of these teams make opposing offenses work hard for a decent shot. Opponents vs the UW defense have an average possession time of 18.3 seconds (325th) and the Bradley defense allows opponents an average possession length of 18.7 seconds (357th). Offensively these teams rank 345th (Wisconsin) and 319th (Bradley) in possessions per game out of 363 teams. The fact is, there just won’t be many opportunities for the offenses in this game. And when there are, both defenses are solid. Wisconsin ranks 27th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency and Bradley ranks 51st (1st in the Missouri Valley Conference). Neither teams is adept on the offensive glass while both are very good defensive rebounding teams so 2nd chance points will be minimal. We should also see very few FT attempts in this game as both Wisconsin and Bradley rank outside the top 340 in percentage of points from the charity stripe and when they get there both only shoot in the mid 60% range. We don’t see either of these teams topping 65 points in this one and we’ll grab the Under.

#605/606 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 149 Points – Kent State vs Toledo, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - In the MAC Title game we have 2 fast paced, extremely efficient offenses which should lead to a high scoring game. Toledo ranks 9th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency and they are #1 in the MAC. The Rockets have scored at least 80 points in 16 of their last 17 games! They are in the top 5 nationally in PPG, FG%, and 3 point FG%. They also hit 77% of their FT’s as a team. On the other end of the court, Toledo struggles. The rank outside the top 250 nationally in defensive efficiency, eFG% allowed, and 3 point % allowed. Kent ranks 4th in the MAC in offensive efficiency and they average 76 PPG on the season. The Golden Flashes have been on quite a roll offensively as well putting up at least 70 points in 10 straight games. Kent’s defense is much better than Toledo’s ranking 1st in the MAC in efficiency, however, they’ve held some of the poor offensive teams in the conference in check but the top teams have put up points vs the Flashes. The 4 most efficient offenses in the league minus Kent’s offense were Toledo, Akron, Ball St, and Ohio, and they averaged 72 PPG vs this Kent defense. In yesterday’s games, Toledo topped Ohio 82-75 despite shooting only 44% combined from the field. Kent topped Akron 79-73 and those 2 teams combined to make only 41% of their shots. We expect both teams to shoot better than those numbers today and this game gets at least into the 150’s.

#679/680 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 131.5 Points – Ohio State vs Wisconsin, Wednesday at 6:30 PM ET - We expect a slow paced, defensive battle as most Big 10 match ups tend to be. Wisconsin is one of the slowest paced teams in the nation averaging only 65 possessions per game (347th). OSU averages just 68 possessions per game which is 259th in the nation. Wisconsin’s defense is very solid allowing just 0.95 PPP on the season (26th nationally) and while OSU’s isn’t quite as good (125th nationally) they should be able to limit a Badger offense that ranks 13th in the Big 10 in scoring and eFG% and 12th in offensive efficiency. Wisconsin has scored 65 points or fewer in 16 of their 20 Big 10 games this season and we don’t expect them to be great on offense tonight. The Badger rely very heavily on the 3 point shot and they’re not great at it ranking 10th in the Big 10 in 3 point FG%. They don’t shoot well at the rim or inside the arc period ranking 328th hitting only 46% of their shots. OSU, on the other hand, doesn’t shoot many 3’s (26% of their points coming from deep – 12th in the Big 10) and their top inside scoring, Zed Key is injured so that will affect their inside game. Finally we don’t expect many trips to the FT line in this game as both rank inside the top 80 nationally in not fouling while both offenses rank outside the top 300 in % of points from the FT line. In their only meeting this season these 2 totaled 125 points and we see s similar outcome here. Let’s not forget that his is at the United Center in Chicago which is a large NBA venue that can be tough on shooters. Under is the play.

#875/876 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 142 Points – North Dakota State vs South Dakota State, Monday at 9:30 PM ET - This will be the third time these 2 have faced each other this year and the first 2 meetings had drastically different results in regards to the total. The first meeting NDSU won 65-59 for 124 total points scored. The 2nd meeting SDSU won 90-85 for 175 total points scored so the difference between the 2 meetings was a whopping 51 points. The interesting part here was the 2nd meeting in which they scored 175 points was just a month ago and despite that high scoring affair, this total opened 143 and has dropped to 141. We agree with the move. The first meeting was much closer to the norm for these 2 teams. Only 124 total points scored yet both averaged over 1.00 PPP in that game. South Dakota State averaged 1.01 PPP and they average 1.05 so not a drastic difference. North Dakota State actually eclipsed their average despite the low scoring game averaging 1.10 PPP in the win and their season average is 1.04. In the 2nd meeting that totaled 175 points both were WAY over their season averages on the offensive end. SDSU averaged a whopping 1.38 PPP in that game while NDSU put up 1.31 PPP. The combined to shoot almost 57% from the field (both average 45%) and they made 46% of their 3’s (they average 33% and 34% on the season). Both of these defenses drastically underperformed in that game as they rank 2nd and 3rd in the Summit in defensive efficiency. You can bet after their most recent meeting both coaches have stressed defense heading into this game. Both teams are poor offensive rebounding teams (ranked outside the top 300) and both are solid defensive rebounding teams so we don’t see many 2nd chances in that regard. We also anticipate minimal FT attempts in this game as neither foul much and offensive neither get to the line very often (outside the top 200 in % of points scored at the FT line). Both defenses showed up in their opening game of this conference tourney allowed 68 (NDSU) and 55 (SDSU) points with both of their games staying Under the total by a combined 30 points. Neither averages 70 PPG away from home this year and we think this game stays in the 130’s. Take the Under.

#803/804 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 130.5 Points – Northwestern vs Maryland, Sunday at 12 PM ET - Two very good defensive teams facing off here and both are slow paced so we do not expect many possessions in this game. Maryland is 325th nationally in possessions per game and Northwestern is 294th. Both defensive units rank in the top 30 in efficiency and PPG allowed. The Cats have allowed 65 points or fewer in 11 of their 17 Big 10 games this season. They’ve held their last 6 opponents to 66 points or less. In 4 of their last 5 games NW faced teams ranked in the top 25 nationally in offensive efficiency (Purdue, Iowa, Ohio State, and Indiana) and they held each of those teams to 63 points or less. Maryland is coming off a poor defensive performance vs a bad Minnesota team allowing 70 points on 1.11 PPP. You can bet they’ll be focused on that end of the court today. Prior to that, in their previous 9 games the Terps did not allow a team to top 68 points and held 7 of those 9 opponents to less than 60 points. They should be able to stifle a Northwestern offense that ranks outside the top 275 in eFG%, 2 point FG%, and 3 point FG%. As shaky as the Cats are at shooting the 3, Maryland is worst ranking 317th making just 31% from deep. We don’t expect many points from beyond the arc here which will help keep this game lower soring. NW has gone Under the total in 7 straight games and Maryland has gone Under the total 11 of their last 13 games after a SU win. These 2 have combined to play 56 games and 36 have gone Under the total. Big Ten grinder on Sunday.

#869/870 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 149.5 Points – Kansas vs TCU, Monday at 9 PM ET - These 2 met back in January with TCU rolling over Kansas 83-60. The total in that game was set at 146.5 and the game when Under yet now this total is set even higher at 149. Interesting and we agree on the move. TCU’s offense is a bit undervalued as they rank 4th in efficiency in the Big 12 but they played 5 of their last 6 games without their top offensive player, Mike Miles. With Miles on the shelf this TCU team averaged only 67 PPG and when he came back on Saturday they put up 100 points on Oklahoma State who is fantastic defensively. In fact, the Cowboys rank 10th nationally in defensive efficiency and 15th in the country in eFG% allowed. Prior to Saturday’s outburst from the Horned Frogs, Okie State was allowing just 64 PPG. With Miles in the line up this season TCU is averaging 78.5 PPG. They shredded the KU defense in the first meeting and we expect they’ll do the same at home where the are averaging 79 PPG on the season. KU is averaging 77 PPG on the road this season but shot poorly at home in the first meeting (39%). Their offense is peaking now and we expect a much better performance. The Jayhawks have scored at least 77 points in 6 of their last 7 games and they’ve faced 5 top 50 defenses (efficiency) during that stretch. Defensively they’ve allowed at least 70 points in 4 of their last 6 games. These are 2 of the faster paced teams in the country (both inside the top 75 in adjusted efficiency) and neither turns the ball over very often so we expect plenty of possessions in this game. Over is the play on Monday night.

#815/816 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 139.5 Points – Ohio State vs Purdue, Sunday at 1 PM ET - When these 2 met in January the total was set at 139 and the game went over the total by 1 point with Purdue winning 71-69. Both offenses played well in that game combining to make 47% of their shots overall and 42% of their 3 points shots. Both eclipsed their average offensive efficiency in league play with OSU scoring 1.15 PPP and Purdue 1.18 PPP in that game. They average 1.01 and 1.10 PPP in conference play respectively. Despite the very good offensive performance, they still only made it to 140 total points. Neither offense is playing very well right now. OSU’s offense has fallen off a cliff. They did score 75 in their most recent game but that was vs Iowa who is the fastest paced team in the league and the 12th most efficient defense in the conference. Prior to that they had been held to 70 points or less in 10 of 12 games and now they face a Purdue defense that ranks 25th nationally in efficiency allowing 0.95 PPP. Purdue has been held under 60 points in back to back games and it averaging just 70 PPG over their last 5. The Boilers will keep this game at a slow tempo as they are the slowest paced team in Big 10 play. Under is the play in this one.

#749/750 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 133.5 Points – Purdue vs Maryland, Thursday at 6:30 PM ET - These 2 met a few weeks ago and Purdue topped the Terps 58-55 in a very low scoring game. We anticipate another Under play tonight. Both of these teams rank in the top 30 nationally in defensive efficiency and in PPG allowed with the Boilers giving up only 61.7 PPG and Maryland allowing 62.8 PPG. They are also both slow paced teams which should limit possessions. Purdue ranks 13th in the Big 10 (out of 14 teams) in adjusted tempo and Maryland ranks 12th in the conference in that stat. In the first meeting these 2 really struggled from beyond the arc and we look for a similar result on Thursday. Neither team is a great from beyond the arc with Maryland 335th nationally in 3 point % and Purdue ranked 202nd in that stat. Both defenses defend the arc very well allowing 30% (Maryland) and 31% (Purdue) to their opponents. Both offenses rely heavily on getting to the FT line (both score over 20% of their total points from the stripe) but that doesn’t bode well here as Purdue allows the fewest points from the FT line of any team in the country and Maryland is solid in that regard as well. Purdue’s offense has solid season long efficiency numbers, however on the road in Big 10 play they are averaging only 64 PPG. Maryland’s offense ranks 8th in the Big 10 (conference play) in efficiency and 10th in eFG%. The Terps have played 6 games this season vs the top 5 Big 10 defensive teams (efficiency) and they are averaging 57 PPG in those contests. These 2 have combined to play 51 games this season and their Under record is 32-19. Another low scoring Big 10 game on Thursday night.

#683/684 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 145.5 Points – Alabama vs Tennessee, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - Two of the very best defensive teams in the nation are facing off in this one. They rank #1 and #2 nationally in eFG% defense and 3 point % defense. The Vols are the top defensive efficiency team in the country allowing 0.86 points per possession and Bama ranks 6th nationally in that stat allowing 0.90 PPP. They key to this total staying under will be tempo. The Tide want to play fast and they thrive in an up tempo game. We don’t think there is any way the Vols allow this to be an up & down game. There best chance and winning this one is to slow the pace which they prefer anyway ranking 14th (dead last) in the SEC on adjusted tempo (conference games). We’ve always said it’s tough to speed up a team that likes to play slow, especially at home. Both teams like to shoot the 3, but neither is a great shooting team from deep with Bama ranking 125th in the country in 3 point % and Tennessee ranks 231st. On top of that, as we mentioned, these are the 2 best 3 point defensive teams in the nation so we don’t expect either to go crazy from deep. The Vols are allowing just 53 PPG at home this season and their games at home are averaging 130 total points. The Tide are averaging an impressive 88 PPG at home this season, however their point total on the road drops significantly to 76 PPG. Now the face the most efficient defense in the country and in their 9 road games thus far the average rank of the defenses they’ve faced is 81st and they’ve averaged 144 total points in those games. Alabama coach Oats and Tennessee coach Barnes have faced off 4 times since Oats to the Bama job in 2019. All 4 games have gone Under the total and none have topped 141 total points. Going back further, these 2 SEC rivals have gone Under the total 9 straight times. We’ll call for another Under tonight.

#841/842 ASA PLAY ON Under 137 Points – Michigan State vs Ohio State, Sunday at 1 PM ET - These are 2 of the worst teams in the Big 10 when it comes to offensive efficiency. MSU ranks 11th in the conference (league games) averaging 0.99 points per possession and OSU is 9th at 1.02 PPP. Sparty averages just 65 PPG in conference play and the Buckeyes put up only 68 PPG. OSU has lost 9 of their last 10 games and their offense is in a free fall right now. Their conference numbers are a bit skewed due to their 93 points outburst vs Iowa (the fastest paced team and worst defensive team in the league) but outside of that, the Bucks have topped 70 points just two other times in Big 10 play. Over their last 5 outings Ohio State is averaging 64 PPG on 42% shooting and an abysmal 26% from beyond the arc. Now facing an MSU defense that leads the Big 10 in 3-point defense and is in the top 4 in FG% allowed and points allowed, we look for another struggle from the OSU offense. The Buckeyes defense is middle of the pack in the Big 10 in FG% and 3 point % allowed but they should look better than that today vs an MSU offense the just isn’t very good. The Spartans are averaging just 64 PPG on the road this year and in their last 5 games they are putting up only 62 PPG. They have topped 70 points just ONCE in Big 10 play and that was vs Nebraska. MSU has had only 2 of their 13 conference games have 140 total points this season and those games were vs Indiana & Illinois. Just 4 of OSU’s 13 Big 10 games have topped 140 total points. We have this total set in the low 130’s with our power ratings so we like the value on the Under here. We don’t expect either team to reach 70 and Under is the play.

#829/830 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 135.5 Points – Fordham vs Richmond, Sunday at 12 PM ET - Fordham likes to play at a fast pace, however Richmond knows they can’t run with the Rams and would prefer a slower paced game. The Spiders are the 4th slowest paced team in the A10 and nationally they rank 284th in adjusted tempo. We anticipate Richmond getting the pace they want at home and slowing this game down. If that happens, we expect an easy Under as both defenses are far superior to the opposing offenses. The defenses in this match up rank 91st nationally (Fordham) and 108th (Richmond) in adjusted defensive efficiency while the offenses each rank outside the top 200. When it comes to conference play only, Fordham ranks 14th in offensive efficiency in the 15 team league and Richmond comes in at 13th in that category. They are also the 2 worst 3-point shooting teams in conference play with Fordham making only 27% of their triples and Richmond just 29%. Neither team is efficient on the offensive glass and both are solid defensive rebounding teams so we don’t look for many 2nd chance points. The Spiders have topped 64 points just once in their last 7 games and Fordham has held 6 of their last 7 opponents to 70 points or fewer. The Rams offense has had some high scoring games over the last week, however those were vs fast paced teams in higher possession games. When they played the slower paced teams in the A10 they scored just 43 vs Davidson and 58 vs Dayton. We don’t see either team getting out of the 60’s in this game and we grab the Under.

#885/886 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 133.5 Points – Kent State vs Akron, Friday at 9 PM ET - The 2 best teams in the MAC squaring off here in what we expect will be a defensive battle. These are the 2 top defensive teams in the conference ranking #1 and #2 in adjusted defensive efficiency and eFG% defense. Both are very good at creating turnovers defensively ranking 1st and 2nd in the MAC (both over 20% defensive TO rate) which will lead to some lost offensive possessions for each. Akron has allowed more than 70 points just one time in their 9 conference games. Kent has allowed more than 70 points just twice in their 8 MAC contests. These 2 lead the league in scoring defense and when it comes to pace, don’t expect and up and down game as Akron ranks 12th (dead last) in adjusted tempo in MAC play and Kent ranks 10th. Offensively neither is a great shooting team with each ranking outsited the top 200 in eFG% and both are below average from beyond the arc at 32% and 33%. Not only are these 2 the best teams in the league, this is a huge rivalry which has led to a number of low scoring games in this heated series. 8 of the last 10 meetings have gone Under the total and only 2 of the last 10 have topped 133 total points. These 2 have combined to play 40 games this season and only 15 have gone Over the total. Under is the play in this HUGE MAC game tonight.

#601/602 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 128 Points – Mississippi State vs South Carolina, Tuesday at 6:30 PM ET - Two slow paced, poor shooting teams facing off here in what we expect to be a low scoring affair. Both of these teams rank outside the top 310 in adjusted tempo and both rank outside the top 330 in offensive eFG%. They rank 13th and 14th in the SEC (14 team league) in both scoring and FG%. When it comes to scoring from beyond the arc, Mississippi State has been terrible making only 28% of their triples (355th nationally) while South Carolina makes only 32%. Both teams do a good job of keeping their opponents off the FT line with MSU’s foes scoring only 16% of their points from the charity stripe and South Carolina’s opponents scoring just 15% from the line. The few times these teams get to the line tonight, it won’t be pretty with MSU making just 62% and SC just 64% of their freebies. The Bulldogs are an outstanding defensive team ranking 11th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, 22th in eFG% defense, while allowing just 59 PPG (8th in the country). South Carolina is not a great defensive team, however with how MSU struggles to shoot the ball, the Gamecocks don’t have to be great on that end. On the road this season, the Bulldogs are averaging only 56 PPG, shooting 39% as a team, and a terrible 21% from beyond the arc. With MSU favored by 10, the projected score here is right around 70-60. The Bulldogs have gotten to 70 points since December 3rd (13 straight games) while South Carolina is averaging just 64 PPG on the season and this will be one of the better defenses they’ve faced. Under is the call here.

#729/730 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 130.5 Points – Northwestern vs Nebraska, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - Defense is absolutely the strength of both teams in this match up. NW ranks 19th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency and Nebraska ranks 35th in that category. That Cats allow just 61 PPG (15th nationally) and the Huskers are giving up only 67 PPG. Both are slower paced as well ranking outside the top 230 in adjusted tempo. The offenses are another story in this match up. The rank 235th (Nebraska) and 340th (NW) in eFG% along with each ranking outside the top 275 in 3 point shooting percentage. The Huskers rank dead last in 3 point % in Big 10 play (29%) and Northwestern is 9th hitting only 33%. Overall in Big 10 play the Wildcats rank last in FG% and Nebraska steps in at 11th in that statistic. On top of that, the strength of each defense matches up very well with the opposing offense. Despite not shooting 3’s very well, NW scores over 34% of their points from deep (91st most nationally) but Nebraska is very good a defending the arc allowing 32% shooting by opponents. The Huskers, on the other hand, shoot very few 3’s scoring almost 58% of their points inside the arc and the Wildcats are #1 nationally in 2 point FG% allowed at 41%. These 2 have combined to play 38 games so far this season and the Under has a record of 26-11-1 in those games. Another Big 10 low scoring, grinder.

#835/836 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 134 Points – Maryland vs Purdue, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Purdue’s defense has been lights out in conference play which is bad news for a struggling Maryland offense. The Boilers rank 18th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency and 13th in scoring defense allowing just 60 PPG. In conference play, since their opener vs Minnesota way back on December 4th, the Boilers have since allowed only 58 PPG over their last 7 Big 10 games. Maryland offense has scored 67 points or fewer in 5 of their 7 conference games and in their 4 Big 10 road games the Terps have averaged just 55 PPG. The strength of Maryland’s team is definitely their defense as they rank 37th nationally in both adjusted defensive efficiency and eFG% defense. Neither team shoots the 3 point all that well (both ranked outside the top 200 in 3 point %) and both are very good at defending the arc so we do not foresee many 3 balls today. Both also prevent their opponents from getting to the FT line very often, especially Purdue who ranks #1 nationally in that category. This has been a low scoring series with 6 of the last 7 meetings going Under the total and only 1 of the last 6 meetings has topped 123 total points. Both of these teams have gone Under the total in 8 of their last 10 games and they’ve combined for a record of 26-11 to the Under this season. Another low scoring, Big 10 grinder.

#745/746 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 127 Points – Rutgers vs Northwestern, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - Two of the top defensive teams not only in the Big 10 but in the country facing off here. Rutgers ranks 3rd nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency and allows only 56 PPG (4th best nationally). Northwestern ranks 9th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency while allowing only 58 PPG (13th in the country). Both rank in the 10 top in the nation in FG% allowed, each right around 37%. Both rank in the top 30 in forcing turnovers so we should have plenty of empty possessions in the half court as neither team likes the up tempo game. Now to the offenses. Neither team shoots the ball very well ranking 241st (Rutgers) and 337th (NW) in eFG%. Both teams rank outside the top 265 in three point % both hitting right around 31% for the season. Despite not shooting it very well, the Wildcats do like to shoot 3’s with 34% of their points coming from deep but that plays right into Rutgers defensive strength as they limit opponents to only 27% from beyond the arc (8th best nationally). On the other end, Rutgers takes very few 3’s but their scoring inside should be limited here vs a NW defense that allows opponents to make just 41% of their 2 point shots (2nd best nationally). This one sets up as a low scoring, Big 10 grinder and we’re on the Under.

#737/738 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 131.5 Points – Maryland vs Rutgers, Thursday at 6:30 PM ET - Two very solid defenses that make opposing offenses work for shots leads to a lower scoring game here. These defenses are each rated in the top 30 nationally in adjusted efficiency and in the top 20 in eFG% defense. Maryland’s defense limits opponents to a shot very 17.9 seconds (281st) and Rutgers defense is allowing a shot every 18.3 seconds (336th) so both offense are really going to be limited when it comes to how many shots they actually get. When looking at Unders we like to find games where 3 point shots won’t be a huge factor. We expect that to be the case here as neither teams shoots the 3 ball all that much and neither does it well with Maryland hitting 30.8% of their triples (294th nationally) and Rutgers makes only 31.3% of their 3’s (272nd in the country). Now we add in both defensive teams which rank in the top 20 nationally at defending the arc and we just don’t many points from deep in this game. At home the Scarlet Knights have been through the roof defensively allowing just 50 PPG so far this season and they’ve allowed just 1 of their 10 opponents to reach the 60 point mark. Maryland has faced 5 top 100 defenses (adjusted efficiency) this season and they are averaging 58 PPG in those contests (Rutgers ranks 3rd nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency). Rutgers has also faced 5 teams rated in the top 100 in adjusted defensive efficiency and they have averaged 59 PPG in those games (Maryland ranks 30th in adjusted defensive efficiency). These 2 met twice last season and both games fell below 130 total points. Take the Under on Thursday Night.

#613/614 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 132 Points – Nebraska vs Michigan State, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Defenses are the strengths of both teams in this match up. Both rank in the top 50 in adjusted defensive efficiency and both allow their opponents to make only 40% from the field on the season. Both also prefer a slower paced game with MSU ranking 300th in adjusted tempo and Nebraska 281st. MSU has not allowed more than 70 points since late November, a span of 6 straight games. The Husker defense has really improved this season holding a number of high scoring offenses in check including stopping Iowa in their tracks in their most recent game limiting the Hawkeyes to just 50 points (Iowa averages 81 PPG). Nebraska also held Purdue to 56 points in regulation (Boilers average 77 PPG) and Creighton to 53 points (Blue Jays average 77 PPG) just to name a few. Offensively neither of these teams is a great shooting team. Both rank outside the top 180 in FG% and outside the top 200 in points per game. Since we hit December, Nebraska has scored 65, 65, 56 (in regulation), 56, 75 (vs Queens College), and 66 points. Since November 30th the Spartans have topped 68 points only one time (6 games) and that was vs a Buffalo who is one of the fastest paced teams in the nation with a defense thar ranks 218th in efficiency. 5 of MSU’s last 6 games have totaled 133 points or less and 4 of Nebraska’s last 6 haven’t even reached 130 total points. Under here.

#715/716 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 127.5 Points – FIU vs North Texas, Saturday at 4 PM ET - UNT is the slowest paced team in the nation (363 in adjusted tempo) and one of the better defensive teams in the country (25th in defensive efficiency). This team has not allowed any of their 13 opponents to reach 60 points. Now they are facing an FIU team who isn’t very efficient offensively (296th in adjusted efficiency) and really struggles to shoot it from deep making only 28.9% from beyond the arc (335th nationally). FIU has had some higher scoring games but they prefer to play fast and most of those games have come vs other high tempo teams. UNT will slow this game to a crawl as they do in every game and the slow paced team almost always wins out as far as tempo goes. Against other high tempo teams (rank in the top 50 in adjusted tempo) the Mean Green have kept it low scoring. Versus UMass (ranked 38th in adjusted tempo) the total points scored was 106 and vs Long Beach St (13th adjusted tempo) the total points scored was 115. On the other end while UNT is great defensively, not so much on offense. They rank outside the top 295 on eFG%, 3 point % and 2 point %. The Mean Green are averaging only 60 PPG on the season. UNT is coming off a loss vs Florida Atlantic in which they totaled only 96 points. FAU is averaging 77 PPG (51st nationally) and UNT held them to 50 points, by far their lowest mark of the season. North Texas will make this a grinder as they always do and this one stays Under.

#651/652 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 131 Points – Boise State vs Nevada, Wednesday at 10 PM ET - Two top notch defensive teams facing off here and we anticipate a low scoring game. Boise ranks 11th nationally allowing just 58 PPG while Nevada ranks 70th giving up just 63 PPG. Boise’s defense has allowed less than 60 points in 8 of their last 11 games. Both rank in the top 25 nationally in FG% allowed with Boise giving up 37.3% and Nevada allowing 38.5% from the field. Both teams are slower paced ranking outside the top 225 in adjusted tempo and both defenses really make opposing offenses work for shots with Boise allowing a shot every 17.6 seconds (228th) and Nevada allowing a shot every 18.7 seconds (357th). Neither team shoots the ball very well with each right around 43% on the season ranking them 255th. Both are solid defensive rebounding teams and both rank outside the top 220 in offensive rebounding so we don’t expect many 2nd chances. These teams have combined for a 16-8 Under record this season. First conference game for both teams so we expect the defensive intensity to ramp up on Wednesday night. Under is the play.

#827/828 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 137.5 Points – UT Arlington vs San Francisco, Monday at 10 PM ET - Defenses are the strengths of both of these teams. Both teams have stronger defensive efficiency numbers and eFG% allowed numbers when compared to their offenses. The shooting numbers for these two are not pretty. UTA ranks 335th in adjusted offensive efficiency, 332nd in FG% and 348th in 3 point FG%. USF ranks 234th in FG% and 247th in 3 point FG%. We don’t expect many 3 pointers made in this one as both defenses rank in the top 60 at defending the arc while both offenses are not good from deep as we mentioned. San Francisco prefers to play up tempo but UT Arlington will slow this game down (262nd in adjusted tempo) which gives them the best chance to stay close. The Dons have played a number of fast paced teams this season which has given a boost to their scoring numbers. However, in the 5 games they’ve played this season vs teams that rank outside the top 200 in adjusted tempo, they’ve topped 130 points only one time. UT Arlington has played 8 games this season vs Division 1 teams and only twice have they scored more than this posted total (currently 137.5) and those games only reached 143 and 144. Those 8 games involving UTA have averaged just 122 total points per game. The Mavericks slow this one down and the defenses take control. Under is the play.

#739/740 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 157 Points – Detroit vs Eastern Michigan, Sunday at 3 PM ET - Two of the worst defenses in college hoops taking the court today in this game and we look for a high scoring affair. EMU’s defense ranks 354th in adjusted defensive efficiency and 359th in eFG% defense (out of 362). They are allowing 82 PPG which ranks them 357th in scoring defense. They’ve allowed at least 80 points in 6 of their 10 games vs Division 1 competition. The only 4 games in which they did not allow at least 80 points were all vs teams ranked outside the top 240 in offensive efficiency. Detroit ranks 60th in offensive efficiency and they are averaging 75 PPG on the season and that’s vs not a single team ranked outside the top 250 in defensive efficiency. This EMU defense will be by far the worst defense the Titans have faced this season and we expect them to get to at least 80 points. The EMU offense is also averaging 75 PPG and they’ve faced only 1 defense ranked outside the top 300 in defensive efficiency (Oakland) and the 2 teams totaled 182 points in that game. Eastern Michigan ranks 54th in adjusted tempo and Detroit ranks 173rd so neither mind playing fast. Detroit loves to shoot the 3 and they do it well hitting almost 40% and they are facing an EMU defense that ranks 225th defending the arc. Defensively Detroit allows almost 40% from deep ranking 353rd so we look for both teams to have success from beyond the arc. Both teams shoot over 72% from the foul line as well which should boost the scoring numbers here. This will be a fast paced, high scoring game and we’ll take the Over.

#637/638 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 127.5 Points – North Texas vs UMass, Saturday at 3 PM ET - UNT is the slowest paced team in the nation in adjusted tempo while UMass likes to play fast. They are also dead last in possessions per game at 59 which is a full 4 possessions lower than the next team. As we’ve said in the past, the slow paced team almost always gets control of the tempo and we expect that here. It’s always easier to slow down a fast paced team rather than speed up a slow paced team. The Mean Green rank 4th nationally in points allowed per game at 52. While we know UNT has been one of the better defensive teams in the country in each of their 6 years under head coach Grant McCasland, UMass is now a defensive minded team as well under new head man Frank Martin, formerly at KSU and South Carolina. His teams were always known for defense and he has already instilled that this year with the Minutemen. The difference is drastic with UMass ranking 89th in adjusted defensive efficiency this season after finishing last year ranked 348th in that category. Neither team shoots the ball great with UNT ranking 308th in eFG% and UMass 212th. The Minutemen have played 3 straight fast paced teams and they’ve only faced 1 team this year ranked lower than 300 in pace and that was Charlotte. The total points scored in that game was 114. These 2 met last year and totaled 123 points and that was when UMass had a terrible defense as we mentioned. It looks like Massachusetts will again be without their leading scorer PG Fernandes with an ankle injury. Defense is the strength of both teams and if North Texas gets the pace as we expect, this stays Under.

#879/880 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 145.5 Points – Missouri State vs Oral Roberts, Friday at 8 PM ET - We were on Mizzou State vs IPFW Under over the weekend and it cashed easily. This MSU team is a dead Under team this far with an 8-1 record to the Under. Their games are averaging 122 total points and they haven’t played in a single game that has topped 140 points this season. The Bears are one of the slowest paced teams in the country ranking 330th in adjusted tempo and they average just 65 possessions per game ranking 352nd. Oral Roberts likes to play fast and you can bet Missouri State will slow this game down taking the Golden Eagles out of their comfort zone. ORU has had some high scoring games but the majority of those have come vs teams that love to play fast as well. Neither team are great on the offensive boards which should limit 2nd chances. Neither team gets to the FT line very much with ORU scoring just 13% of their points from the stripe (344th nationally) and Mizzou State scoring 12.5% from the stripe (354th nationally). The Eagles love to shoot 3’s and have a solid 37% team shooting from deep but MSU is solid at defending the arc allowing just 32%. The Bears also like to shoot the 3 but they are flat out bad at it hitting 29% (315th). These 2 met last year and the total was 150. ORU wanted to play fast and MSU took them out of their game and the total points scored ended up being just 129. If Missouri State gets the pace they want here, which we believe they will, this should stay Under the Total.

#723/724 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 134 Points – IPFW vs Missouri State, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Two bad offensive teams going at it here. They are both ranked outside the top 200 in adjusted offensive efficiency, eFG%, 2 point FG% and 3 point FG%. They are both much better defensively allowing less than 1.00 points per possession on the season ranking them 101st and 115th in adjusted defensive efficiency. IPFW has had a few higher scoring games this season, however those have been vs poor defensive teams that like to play at a fast tempo. In this game, IPFW will be facing a Missouri State team that wants to play slow (321st in tempo) so we expect the host Bears to control the tempo here. When facing teams similar the Mizzou State (slow tempo & solid defensive teams) IPFW has totaled 115 points (vs Northwestern) and 128 points (vs Southern Miss). The only game that Missouri State has played this year that topped 131 total points was vs Detroit which is a fast paced team and the Titans rank 358th in adjusted defensive efficiency and that game only got to 140 total points. In their other 7 games, the Bears are averaging 120 total points. Neither team is adept at offensive rebounding so we don’t look for many 2nd opportunities and both get to the foul line infrequently. This has all the makings of a low scoring grinder and we’ll be on the Under.

#669/670 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 136 Points – Wisconsin vs Marquette, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET - Both teams coming off high scoring games earlier this week which gives us some value on the Under in this rivalry. The Badgers played host to Wake Forest on Tuesday and lost a tight one 78-75 which was easily their highest scoring game of the season. Even with that score factored in, Wisconsin games are averaging just 121 points on the season. IN that game the two teams combined to make over 48% of their shots and over 38% from beyond the arc. Wisconsin head coach Greg Gard was not happy after the game with his defense and you can bet they’ll play very well on that end here. Prior to that game the UW defense had allowed only 1 team to reach 60 points and that was Kansas who scored 63 in regulation. The Badgers held USC to 59, Dayton to 42, and Stanford to 50 to name a few. Marquette lit up Baylor here earlier this week scoring 96 points. However, they also made almost 60% of their shots and they were in a up and down the court game with the Bears who love to play fast. Marquette does as well ranking 27th in adjusted tempo. Wisconsin ranks 303rd in that category and Gard will do everything in his power to slow this game down to keep the Golden Eagles out of their comfort zone. As we’ve said many times, it’s much easier for a team to slow the pace rather than speed up a team that doesn’t want to play that style. We expect a lower possession game here. Both teams are strong defensively ranking 16th (Wisconsin) and 40th (Marquette) in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Golden Eagles have been able to turn teams over and create easy buckets this season but that’ll be tough vs Wisconsin who ranks 21st in offensive turnover rate. Marquette played one team this year that was very similar to Wisconsin in defensive efficiency and pace and that was Mississippi State. That game ended with a final score of 58-55 in favor of the Bulldogs. This one stays Under the total in this intense, in-state rivalry.

#865/866 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 122.5 Points – Appalachian State vs Charlotte, Friday at 7 PM ET - Low total here for a reason. Two very slow paced teams facing off here and we don’t expect many possessions. Charlotte ranks 362nd (out of 363 teams) in adjusted tempo and App State ranks 260th in that category. Charlotte is 361st in possessions per game and ASU is 179th. The 49ers are coming off a game earlier this week in which they played a very good offensive team, Davidson, who ranks 60th in offensive efficiency and 56th in eFG%. That game went to OT but the score at the end of regulation was 59-59. Now they face an App State offense that ranks 256th in offensive efficiency and 208th in eFG%. Charlotte is far from a great offensive team ranking outside the top 100 in both efficiency and eFG%. Both rank outside the top 200 in 3 point shooting percentage and neither team is adept at offensive rebounding (331st and 286th). Both teams protect the ball committing few turnovers so not many 2nd chance offensive points in this game or extra possessions. We think both teams will struggle to get to 60 here and we’ll take the UNDER.

#691/692 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 134 Points – IUPUI vs Denver, Wednesday at 5 PM ET - One terrible offense and one not so great offense should lead to a low scoring game here. IUPUI is averaging just 51 PPG on the season (dead last in the nation) and their 4 games so far on the year have averaged 121 total points. It’s not as if they’ve been playing a slate of great defenses, this team just can’t shoot ranking 363rd in 3 point percentage (19%) and 359th in overall FG% (out of 363 teams). Their high scoring effort was 59 points vs Franklin College and their top effort vs a D1 school was 58 vs Chicago State who ranks dead last in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency. Denver is better on the offensive end but it’s not like this is a good shooting team either. The Pioneers are decent offensively inside the arc, however from 3-point land they rank 360th hitting just 22% of their shots. Thus, in this game we have 2 of the 4 worst three point shooting teams in the nation which will make it really tough to get to this number. As you would expect, neither attempts many 3’s ranking 358th and 362nd in percentage of points scored from deep. Neither team shoots FT’s very well (60% and 66%) and they aren’t adept at offensive rebounding so we don’t see many second chance points. With Denver favored by 11 in this game the projected final score is right around 73-62. As we stated, IUPUI hasn’t gotten to 60 points yet this season and if we subtract Denver’s game vs Colorado College, they are averaging 69 PPG. Under is the call here.

#703/704 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 135.5 Points, San Francisco vs Fresno State, Wednesday at 10 PM ET - San Fran wants to play fast but Fresno is one of the slowest paced teams in the nation, this year and last year, so we expect them to get the slower tempo at home. The Bulldogs are also one of the best defensive teams in the nation last year allowing just 59 PPG (4th nationally) and this year they’ve allowed 56 & 61 points in their 2 games. Their most recent game vs a very solid UCSB team was on pace for well under 100 points (23-21 at halftime) and despite some scrambling and fouling late (18 points in the final 3 minutes) they still only hit 115 total points. SF has played 2 games as well (minus their game vs Cal Merced which tells us nothing) and they’ve had 2 glaringly different results. One was vs a very fast paced Texas State team which was high scoring and San Fran hit 60% of their shots. The other was vs a Cal Poly team that is slow paced, similar to Fresno, and plays decent defense but not at the level of the Bulldogs. That game totaled 108 points. These 2 met last year and the total was set at 128 and now we’re in the mid 130’s which is too high. In that game the 2 combined by for 134 points with San Francisco winning 71-63. After holding SF to just 24 points in the first half of that game, Fresno allowed the Dons to roll up 47 in the 2nd half which was one of their worst halves defensively of the season and it still stayed Under the total that is set for tonight. We expect FSU to slow this game to a crawl and play very well defensively at home. SF’s defense is no slouch either ranking in the top 50 last year in eFG% allowed and they are ranked 45th in that stat early on this season. Under is the play.

#677/678 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 137.5 Points – Stanford vs Wisconsin, Friday at 7:30 PM ET - This game is being played at the home of the Brewers, American Family Field. This will be the first basketball game ever at the field and the back drop is terrible. Really no back drop at all behind the baskets which will make it very difficult to shoot well. This total is set a little high in our opinion due to Wisconsin’s first performance of the year where they scored 85 points vs South Dakota and Stanford’s first game of the year where they put up 88 at home vs Pacific. The Badgers hit over 50% of their shots on Monday night vs South Dakota and made 12 of their 26 three point attempts. Stanford hit 60% of their shots vs Pacific and went to the FT line 34 times. Now they’ll both be facing far superior defenses than they faced in their openers and neither will be at home where they tend to be comfortable shooting the ball. Wisconsin averaged 69.9 PPG last year ranking them 175th nationally and lost their top 2 scorers Johnny Davis & Brad Davison. They will take some time to find their footing offensively early in the season vs solid opponents. Stanford averaged just 64 PPG last year ranking them 274th. Both of these defenses allowed less than 70 PPG last season and after facing defenses in their first game of the season that ranked 254th (South Dakota) and 271st (Pacific) in scoring last year, this is a huge step up on that end of the court. Wisconsin has picked up their pace a bit over the last few season but they still ranked outside the top 250 in tempo last year and Stanford was middle of the pack so neither play at a really fast pace. We expect a halfcourt game here in which both teams struggle to shoot the ball in this non familiar basketball venue. Neither team gets to 70 here and we like the Under.

#701/702 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 133 Points – Villanova vs Kansas, Saturday at 6 PM ET - Both defenses have been outstanding this season ranking in the top 20 in adjusted efficiency. They’ve both turned it up a notch on that end of the court in the NCAA tourney with Kansas allowing 59.8 PPG in their 5 games and Nova allowing 55 PPG. The Wildcats defense has been especially impressive allowing 61 points or less in each of their 4 tourney games despite playing 3 top 20 efficiency offenses (OSU, Houston, and Michigan). KU has allowed 61 or less in 3 of their 4 games. Besides the fact that both teams play great defense, they one thing we are banking on here is a very slow pace. NO WAY Nova head coach Jay Wright will let this game go up and down at a quick pace. First of all the Cats are very slow to being with (334th tempo) and they will be without one of their best players, Justin Moore, which makes this team really thin. Wright will need to play his starters as much as possible and most likely go only 6 deep for decent minutes at least. He’ll make this a half court game and KU prefers up tempo. Th only way this game gets moving quickly will be if Nova gets down by a large margin and they can’t affor to make it low possession game. We’ll bank on that not happening. When Kansas played the slowest paced teams in Big 12 (Okla, ISU, and Texas) each twice, they scored 140 or less in 5 of those games and 131 or less in 4 of the 6. They had one higher scoring game in that bunch vs Texas and if we throw that out KU’s average total points scored in the other 5 was just 127. A new, huge venue for both teams (Superdome) which will most likely make it tough to shoot the ball well from outside. We like the Under in this game.

#651/652 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 137 Points – Xavier vs Texas A&M, Thursday at 7 PM ET - We were on the Under in Xavier’s most recent game vs St Bonnies. The total was set at 138 in that game and this one is just a touch lower. It should be higher based on the opponent. That was a game that St Bonnies, a thin team playing basically 5 players, wanted to slow down. They are a slow paced team ranking 268th in possessions per game. STB got down big at half (which was on pace for 122) and had to abandon their slow pace to try and get back in the game which was obviously bad for the Under. The 2 teams went on to score 100 points in the 2nd half in what turned out to be a faster paced game due to the situation. A&M likes to play much faster than St Bonnies and Xavier is a top 100 team in adjusted pace. A&M faced Wake Forest in this tourney, a team with very similar offensive and defensive efficiency numbers that likes to play fast as well, and that total was set at 146. It went under because neither team shot above 40% from the field, both shot just 22% from 3, and they made only 24 of 40 FT’s. Xavier has hit their stride offensive scoring at least 72 points in all 4 of their NIT games and in their last 6 games overall. In their last 2 games vs 2 very solid defensive teams (Vandy & St Bonnies) they averaged 1.12 and 1.29 PPP. A&M is playing very well offensively averaging 72 PPG in their 4 NIT games. Both teams get to the FT line a lot (both in the top 50 in FT attempt rate) with Xavier averaging 20 FT attempts per game in this tourney and A&M averaging 21 FT attempts per game in the NIT. We should get a decent amount of points from the line tonight. Both teams are playing their 2nd game in Madison Square Garden so both are now comfortable with the venue. Each of the last 4 NIT finals have topped 140 points and we expect this one to do the same. Over is the play here.

#647/648 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 139.5 Points – Xavier vs St Bonaventure, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Xavier likes to play up tempo but St Bonnies is a slow paced team (253rd in adjusted tempo & 268th in possessions per game). It’s always easier to slow a team down rather than speed a team up which is why we always like the slower paced team to gain control of the tempo. No way St Bonnies wants to play fast in this game. They have the thinnest bench in college basketball with all 5 of their starters averaging more than 30 minutes per game. They basically have a 6 man rotation if one of the starters gets in foul trouble. They will turn this into a half court game with limited possessions. Both defenses are solid allowing right around 0.97 PPP on the season. Offensively, neither team shoots well from 3 with both averaging right around 32%. Because of that, neither team takes many shots from beyond the arc as they rank 313th and 283rd in percentage of points scored from deep. Throw in the fact that neither team fouls very much and the majority of points in this game will be scored inside the arc. Xavier remains without their 2nd leading scorer Scruggs (12 PPG) who was injured in their NIT win over Florida. St Bonnies games have gone Under the total in 6 of their last 8. They have topped 140 points just ONCE in their last 9 games because they play solid defense and slow teams down tempo wise. While Xavier has had some higher scoring games vs the faster paced teams in the Big East, when they faced the low possession teams their games have been low scoring. Villanova, Providence, and Butler are the 3 slowest paced teams in the Big East and Xavier’s played 7 games vs those teams and topped 140 total points just once. We think both teams struggle to get to 70 here and Under is the play.

#887/888 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 138.5 Points – Coastal Carolina vs South Alabama, Monday at 8 PM ET - Two teams from the Sun Belt Conference meeting in the Basketball Classic semi-finals here. These 2 teams know each other well and we like this one to turn into a low scoring grinder. Both defenses are very solid allowing just 0.97 PPP in conference play and ranking #1 and #2 in the Sun Belt in eFG% defense. These 2 defenses also rank #1 and #2 in the league in 3 point FG% defense both allowing less than 30% from deep. On top of that, both defenses make the opposing offense really work for decent shots which leads to long offensive possessions. CC ranks 313th in length of opponent’s possession at 18.2 seconds on average and USA ranks 327th in that same category. These 2 met once this year and the total was set at 135 points. The final score was South Alabama 71, Coastal Carolina 68. It was a low possession game with only 103 shots attempted which wasn’t a surprise as both teams ranking outside the top 220 in offensive possessions per game. They combined to make 17 of 48 three point attempts (35%) and we don’t expect a repeat as both teams allow less than 30% as we mentioned above. They also combined to make 34 FT’s and we expect those numbers to come down here as well with both teams ranking outside the top 125 in FT attempt rate. Neither team reaches 70 in this game and we’re on the UNDER.

#623/624 ASA TOP PLAY ON 9* Under 145.5 Points – Houston vs Arizona, Thursday at 10 PM ET - Arizona loves to run. They are at their best offensively when they get out in the open court. There is absolutely no way Houston head coach Kelvin Sampson lets that happen. The Cougars are one of the slowest paced teams in the nation (334th in adjusted tempo and 315th in possessions per game) and they will do everything in their power to ugly this game up. That’s their best chance in this one. The Cougs are fantastic defensively ranking 10th nationally in adjusted efficiency, 7th allowing 59 PPG, and #1 in the country allowing opponents to shoot just 37%. They have allowed 70+ points just ONCE in their last 13 games. Much is made of Zona’s offense but their defense has been fantastic. They are allowing opponent to average just 0.92 PPP adjusted efficiency which ranks them 19th nationally. They also allow opponents to shoot only 38% which ranks them 6th in the country. Neither team is elite at making 3-pointers and both prefer to score inside the arc. Problem is, that’s the strength of both defense ranking 2nd (Houston) and 9th (Arizona) defending inside the arc. Both teams are long, athletic and block a lot of shots inside (3rd and 25th in block shot %). If this turns into mainly a half court game which we feel it will, both teams are going to struggle to get good looks. Take the UNDER in this one.

#761/762 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 139 Points – Colgate vs Wisconsin, Friday at 9:50 PM ET - Many still view the Badgers as a plodding, slow paced team but that is not the case this season. They were actually the 5th fastest paced team in the Big 10 this season. Colgate ranked 4th in the Patriot league in tempo and 162nd nationally. Neither of these teams prefers to walk it up the court and use the full shot clock so we should have plenty of possessions to get this this total. Colgate ranks below 200th in defensive efficiency. To put that in perspective, only 4 teams in the Big 10 rank below 100th in defensive efficiency and none rank below 200th. In other words, this will be the weakest defense the Badgers have faced since December. UW faced a total of 3 defenses this year ranked lower than Colgate in efficiency (Illinois State, St Francis, and UWGB) and they averaged 81 PPG in those games. On the other end of the court, Colgate ranks 11th in the nation in eFG% and 2nd in 3 point % hitting over 40% as a team. They have 6 players in the regular rotation that hit 35% or better from deep. The Badger defense is a step down from previous seasons ranking 147th in eFG% allowed and 98th in 3 point % allowed so we expect the Raiders to have some success offensively. Neither team does well forcing turnovers and offensively neither turns the ball over so there won’t be many wasted possessions. Our projections have this total at 145 to some definite value with the Over in our opinion.

#731/732 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 137 Points – San Francisco vs Murray State, Thursday at 9:40 PM ET - Defense is the strength of both of these teams. USF ranks 19th nationally in defensive efficiency (0.92 PPP) and allows 66 PPG. Murray State ranks 40th in defensive efficiency (0.95 PPP) and allows 61 PPG. The Dons do like to play fast but the slower team quite often controls tempo. Despite their nickname the Racers, Murray State is a slow paced team ranking 246th in adjusted tempo. They’ve held 24 of their 32 opponents this season to less than 70 points. If you subtract USF’s 3 games vs Gonzaga (#1 in the country in offensive efficiency), they allowed just 66 PPG in WCC play. Both teams defend the 3 point line very well (9th and 13th nationally) and neither teams scores many points from the FT line. That means most of the scoring here will come from inside the arc and 2’s are much better than 3’s when playing the Under. Lastly, both teams shoot below 70% from the FT line for the season. With this spread being just 1point, we expect a close game that is a one or two possession game late. That usually slows the game way down entering the final minutes as each offensive possession in crucial. Under is our wager on this game.

#663/664 ASA TOP PLAY ON 9* Over 136 Points – Texas A&M CC vs Texas Southern, Tuesday at 6:40 PM ET - Both of these teams love to play fast and get out in transition. We should see lots of possessions in this game which opens up the door for more points. They average 72 & 74 possessions per game and because both like to play up tempo, we should see more than that in this game. Another key here will be the FT line. Both defenses foul a lot. TA&MCC allows opponents to score over 24% of their points from the FT line (7th most nationally) and TSU allows over 20% in that category (70th most in the nation). We look for lots of points coming from the stripe in this one and in what should be a close game, scrambling at the end with the team behind fouling in the last few minutes depending on the score is open here. One other situation that should lead to some point blank scoring opportunities is the fact that both teams are very good on the offensive boards, while neither are good on the defensive boards. That should lead to extra possessions on both ends and a number of putbacks along the way. Neither team has great shooting stats but because of the situations we discussed above, they find ways to put points on the board. Southern has scored at least 70 points in 7 of their last 8 games and A&MCC has put up at least 70 points in 13 of their last 15 games. Take the OVER here.

#831/832 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 140 Points – Texas A&M vs Auburn, Friday at 12 PM ET - Our power ratings have this total set at 144 so we like the value on the Over here. Auburn is one of the faster paced (41st in the nation) and higher scoring teams in the country (80 PPG). They have scored at least 80 points in 11 of their 18 conference games and 17 of their 31 games overall. They are facing an A&M offense who’s overall numbers are solid (73 PPG) and they are peaking on that end of the court right now. The Aggies are on a 5 game winning streak and they’ve averaged 80 PPG during that stretch. A key reason this number is set lower than we think it should be was the result from their one meeting this season. Auburn won that game 75-58 so only 133 total points were scored. However a closer look reveals that the teams were both terrible offensively. A&M shot 27% from the field (17% below their season average) and Auburn made only 40% of their shot attempts (5% below their average). You think that’s bad, take a look at their 3 point numbers. The 2 combined to make 6 three pointers the entire game on a whopping 47 attempts (12%)! It was a face paced game as expected with 138 shot attempts AND 49 FT attempts. Expect the same here but we anticipate both teams to shoot much better pushing this well over the total. These teams are a combined 39-23 to the OVER this season and we expect to add another here.

#613/614 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 134.5 Points – Wright State vs Northern Kentucky, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - This total opened at 138 and has dropped to 134.5 as of this writing. That gives us some very solid value on the Over here. These 2 met twice this year and the totals in those games were set at 145.5 and 139. In those 2 games the teams combined for 136 points and 146 points. NKY won both games. In both games Northern Kentucky averaged 1.06 PPP which is dead on with their seasonal conference average. Wright State, on the other hand, averaged just 0.91 PPP and 1.00 PPP in those 2 games which is WAY below their season average of 1.13 in conference play. That ranks the Raiders #1 in the Horizon in offensive efficiency and they rank #2 in the league scoring 77 PPG. They scored 63 and 71 points in their 2 meetings with NKY this season. The Raiders are also ranked 2nd in the conference making just under 47% of their shots and they made 37% and 40% in those 2 match ups. Northern Kentucky is solid defensively ranking 2nd in the league in efficiency (172nd nationally) and 3rd in eFG% allowed (148th nationally) but nowhere near a shut down type defense that should stymie the #1 offense in the league. WSU is one of the fastest paced teams in the conference and NKY one of the slowest, but they averaged 57.5 shot attempts each in their 2 meetings which is a decent amount. If N Kentucky puts up around 1.06 PPP again as they did in the first 2 meetings and Wright State performs just a bit better than they did, which would still be well below their average, this goes Over.

#849/850 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 142.5 Points – Western Carolina vs Mercer, Friday at 7:30 PM ET - These 2 met twice this year and neither game reached this total (currently 142.5). The 2 meetings ended with total points of 134 and 136 and we see this one ending in a similar fashion. If we look at the offensive metrics of those 2 games, WCU far outplayed their season averages putting up 1.12 PPP and 1.11 PPP in those games. They are the worst offensive team in the Southern Conference averaging just 0.98 PPP so you can see the difference was rather large. Mercer hit their average in one of the 2 games (1.06 PPP) and in the other they topped out at 1.26 PPP. You can see, both teams played very well on offense yet still neither game came near 142.5 total points. Now with both teams playing their first game on this neutral site in Ashville, NC, we can expect their offensive numbers to be much more in line with their season averages here. Mercer is a slow paced team (310th) and they controlled the tempo in both games as the 2 combined for 108 and 109 shot attempts. WCU was a faster paced team earlier in the season but their head coach Justin Gray made an adjustment slowing his team down which gives them a better chance at success. These 2 offenses rank 8th & 9th in scoring in the 10 team Southern Conference. WCU’s offense ranks dead last in the league in efficiency, eFG%, 3 point FG%, and 2 point FG%. While Mercer’s offense is definitely better, they are far from really good at anything ranking no higher than 5th in the conference in any of those stats. We expect this one to land in the 130’s again giving us a play on the UNDER.

#809/810 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 137.5 Points – Detroit vs Northern Kentucky, Thursday at 7 PM ET - These 2 met twice this season so we have a pretty solid baseline. The first game they totaled 142 points which isn’t much above this posted number despite both offenses playing way above their averages. Detroit put up 1.28 PPP in that game (season average is 1.06) and Northern KY averaged 1.17 PPP (season average is 1.05). They combined to make over 51% of their shot attempts and 42% of their 3 points shots, both well above their season averages. They only combined to take 98 shots which isn’t a surprise as both teams rank below 300th nationally in tempo. In their 2nd and most recent meeting on February 18th they only tallied 112 total points. Each team shot 39% which actually not that far off their season averages of 43%. They attempted just 105 total shots in another slow paced game. Another thing to make note of is neither team gets to the FT line very often (332nd and 297th in % of points scored from the line) and that was evident in the 2 meetings as they averaged just 22 FT attempts combined per game. That obviously limits scoring as well. We’ll see limited possessions again in this one and unless they shoot lights out, this should stay UNDER the total. We have this game projected in the low 130’s.

#895/896 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 161 Points – Iowa vs Nebraska, Friday at 9 PM ET - These are the 2 fastest paced teams in the Big 10 and that lead a boatload of shot attempts in this game. They met in Iowa City just 11 days ago and put up 173 points on 138 shot attempts! The teams combined to shoot well but it wasn’t one of those games where both teams hit 60% or anything like that. Iowa & Nebraska combined to make 47% of their attempts and just 32% of their triples. They also made 24 FT’s which again is not an inordinate amount considering both teams foul a lot. Iowa scored 98 points on 1.23 PPP which is just slightly above their season average of 1.20 (5th best nationally). Nebraska actually averaged below 1.00 PPP in that game putting up 75 points on 0.94 PPP which is below their season average of 1.02 PPP. So you can see, despite the high scoring game, nothing was really out of the ordinary for these 2 teams. When facing the top 4 offensive efficiency teams (5 games) in the conference (Iowa, Purdue, Ohio State, and Michigan) the Huskers have allowed 102, 98, 92, 87, and 85 points. They rank dead last in the Big 10 (conference games) in efficiency, eFG% allowed, 2-point % allowed, and 13th in 3 point % allowed. Iowa’s defense ranks 7th or lower in the conference in each of those categories. Iowa leads the Big 10 in scoring averaging 83 PPP and they’ve been even better as of late averaging 89 PPG over their last 5 games. They’ve only played 3 games this year vs teams inside the top 5 in the conference in tempo (fast paced teams) and totaled 173, 170, and 165 in those games. Nebraska ranks 6th in the conference in scoring at 73 PPG so they are solid offenisvely. Defensively these two teams rank 13th and 14th (out of 14) in scoring defense. Everything sets up for another shootout here and we’ll grab the OVER.

#867/868 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 129 Points – Penn State vs Maryland, Monday at 7 PM ET - PSU is the slowest paced team in the Big 10 and one of the slowest in the nation (351st out of 358 teams). They limit possessions and make most games they play in low scoring affairs. Their Big 10 games average 129 points which is the lowest in the league. The Nittany Lions are last in the league in scoring and tied for 1st in PPG allowed. Since January 8th (last 10 games) PSU games have scored more than 132 points (in regulation) just ONE time. Their last 10 games have averaged just 120.8 total points if we subtract the OT points in their game vs Iowa. They’ve even been able to slow down the fast paced teams in the conference. PSU has faced the 4 fastest paced teams in the league (Nebraska, Iowa, NW, and Wisconsin) 4 times this season and those games have averaged 123 total points. Maryland is a middle of the pack offense in the Big 10. They rank 7th in efficiency and 10th in FG%. We don’t see them having great success vs a PSU defense that ranks in the top 40 in defensive efficiency. The Terps are decent, not great defensively, allowing just under 1.00 PPP on the season (105th nationally). However, they are facing a Penn State offense that is one of the worst in the Big 10 averaging less than 1.00 PPP in conference play (12th out of 14 teams). In their 2 games last year these two totaled 105 and 127 points. This one won’t be pretty. Low scoring and we like the UNDER.

#655/656 ASA TOP PLAY ON 9* Under 133.5 Points – Georgia State vs Georgia Southern, Saturday at 3 PM ET - We used this Under on Thursday night and lost. Ga State beat Ga Southern 79-63 yet this total for Saturday came out at the exact same total, not higher as you might expect. That’s because in Thursday’s game there were a few outliers that pushed the game over the total. Georgia State averaged 1.16 PPP in that win which is WAY over their Sun Belt average of 0.97 PPP. Georgia Southern’s defense was poor to say the least as they have allowed just 1.02 PPP in conference play this season. We expect them to put a big emphasis on the defensive end and slow Ga State down on Saturday. Georgia State’s defense has been locked in to say the least. They rank #1 in defensive efficiency in the Sun Belt allowing a paltry 0.92 points per possession. They held the Eagles to right around that number on Thursday (0.93 PPP). The 63 points Ga Southern put up was the most Ga State has allowed since February 3rd. Going back further, the Panthers have allowed only one of their last 9 opponents to reach 70 points. The Georgia Southern offense still ranks dead last in the Sun Belt in offensive efficiency so we don’t expect them to do much here. Our projections have them in the 50’s in this game. The Eagles have gotten to 70 points just ONCE (in regulation) in their 13 conference games. Despite Thursday’s output of 79 points, which was the most Ga State has scored this season in Sun Belt play, the Panthers offense is not good. They 10th in offensive efficiency and 12th (out of 12) in eFG%. These 2 teams are the WORST 3 point shooting teams in the conference ranking 11th & 12th with both hitting barely over 25% of their attempts from deep. Both defenses make their opponents work hard for shots taking lots of time off the clock. We’ll come back with the UNDER on Saturday.