Sports Picks & Predictions

ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers -9.5 vs Milwaukee Bucks, 7 PM ET - The Bucks are in a very tough situation here without Giannis and now Dame Lillard who are their two leading scorers. Khris Middleton put this team on his back in Game 3, scored 42 and it still wasn’t enough as Milwaukee lost in OT. You could see Middleton was exhausted in that game and now he’ll be the focal point of the Pacers defense so we’re not sure where the Bucks scoring will come from. Indiana had 6 players score in double digits and also got 6-points from Sheppard and 7 from McConnell off the bench. Indiana was 26-15 SU at home this season with the 6th best home court differential of +6.8PPG. They closed out the regular season with 5 straight home wins, 4 of which were against other Playoff teams. Milwaukee was a below average road team this season with a 18-22 SU record and a negative average Margin of Victory of minus -1.1PPG. When coming off a loss the Bucks are 14-19-1 ATS this season which is the second worst spread record in the league in that situation. Indiana is 6-2 SU versus the Bucks this season and 4 of those wins have come by 9+ points. Lay it here with the Pacers.

ASA top play on LA Clippers +6 at Dallas Mavericks, 3:30 PM ET - We are backing the Clippers today and will grab the generous points against the Mavericks. I’ll be honest I prefer this bet if Kawhi Leonard does NOT play for the Clippers as he’s clearly not himself at this point in time. Without Leonard in Game 1 the Clippers offense and defense was much better than it’s been with him on the floor. Specifically, on offense where the ball was moving much better and didn’t stop with him in isolation sets. Either way, we expect a very tight Game 4 in Dallas. The Mavs are 26-16 SU at home but have an ‘average’ point differential of +3.8PPG which is 14th in the NBA. The Clippers have an identical road record of 26-16 SU with the 5th best average Margin of Victory at +3.2PPG. The Clippers were 19-13 SU this season when coming off a loss with a +2.3PPG point differential. These two teams have slowed down dramatically in terms of field goal attempts and pace of play which makes the points and this dog that much more attractive.

ASA top play on Boston Celtics -9 vs Miami Heat, 6 PM ET - We are obviously laying a premium price here with the Celtics, but our numbers suggest a double digit win by the visitor. Miami won Game 2, but it took a historically great 3-point shooting night to notch that W. The Heat set franchise playoff records with the number of 3’s made (23) and 3PT% at 53%. We are expecting a sharp regression in Game 3 as the Celtics have the 4th best 3PT% defense in the NBA allowing just 35.4%. Miami is 12th in the league in 3PT% at 37.2%. Boston also had two starters play one of their worst statistical games of the season with Jrue Holiday and Porzingis struggling. The Celtics are 14-4 SU coming off a loss this season, which doesn’t translate when they are favored by 9.5 points, but their average MOV in those games was +12.3PPG, which does. Miami was slightly better than average at home this season with a 23-19 SU record, but they had a low +/- of +2.4PPG. Boston was the best road team in the NBA this season at 27-14 SU with a +7.5PPG average point differential. The Celtics won on this court twice this season already and one of those wins came by 33-points. Lay it with a motivated Celtics team.

ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers -5.5 vs Milwaukee Bucks, 5:30 PM ET - If we examine the big picture for the Bucks, it’s not as rosy as one might think. They are already paying two previous coaches a ton of money and are now stuck with Doc Rivers who is vastly overrated. The roster when healthy is a good one, but without Giannis (30PPG, 11.5RPG, 6.5APG, 1.1BPG) they have too many deficiencies on both ends of the court. There is a good chance Khris Middleton doesn’t play tonight, or if he does, he will not be close to 100%. The young Pacers were clearly nervous for Game 1 as it was a first-time playoff experience for many on the roster and it showed in a 109-94 loss. Then in Game 2 they settled in and dominated the Bucks in the second half for a 125-108 victory. Back at home we expect the home crowd to be electric and the young Pacers will feed off that energy. Indiana was 26-15 SU at home this season with the 6th best home court differential of +6.8PPG. They closed out the regular season with 5 straight home wins, 4 of which were against other Playoff teams. Milwaukee was a below average road team this season with a 18-22 SU record and a negative average Margin of Victory of minus -1.1PPG. When coming off a loss the Bucks are 13-19-1 ATS this season which is the second worst spread record in the league in that situation. Indiana is 5-2 SU versus the Bucks this season and 4 of those wins have come by 9+ points. The Bucks have no answer for Siakam who torched Milwaukee for 36 and 37 points in the first two games. Easy call here with Indiana in a double-digit win.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 216.5 Denver Nuggets at LA Lakers, 10 PM ET - We are simply betting the number here and have to take the value with an OVER wager in this Game 3. Everyone knows how the Nuggets have dominated the Lakers with 10-straight wins but so far in this series the (gulp) Lakers have been the better overall team. While we are not getting involved in the Side of this game, we will jump in on the Total. The first two games in this series had O/U’s of 226.5 and 223. Granted, they combined for 217 and 200 total points but that will change in Game 3. The two regular season games in Los Angeles had O/U’s posted of 231.5 and 233 and the two teams combined for 238 and 220. In fact, in the last ten meetings between these two teams they have combined to score more than tonight Total eight times. The Lakers will set the tempo tonight and they prefer to play fast at home with the 3rd fastest pace of play on their home court during the regular season. We also know the Lakers will get some ‘home cooking’ from the officials and will score plenty of points from the free throw line with a stopped clock. The Lakers are 20-15-1 Over when coming off a loss this season, 29-25-1 Over against other Western Conference teams. Denver has some strong Under support on the road this season but those O/U numbers were set significantly higher during the regular season. The Nuggets road games averaged 220PPG on the year which is clearly enough to grab the cash in this one.

ASA play on Orlando Magic -1.5 -115 or Pick -125 vs Cleveland Cavaliers, 7 PM ET - Home teams have dominated thus far in the playoffs (as expected they are the lower seed) and we expect that trend to carry over in this 4/5 series. The Magic were 18-23 SU away from home this season with an average +/- of -3.6PPG. They had an efficiency differential of minus -3.6 on the road. At home the Magic were a completely different team with a 29-12 SU record and the 5th best average point differential of +7.8PPG. We played against Orlando in the first two games of this series and expected them to struggle offensively. They shot just 33% and 36% in Games 1 and 2. We should see a positive regression here as they shoot 47.5% on the season and 48.7% at home. Cleveland did have a winning record on the road this season of 22-19 SU with a positive differential of +1.1PPG. They have lost 8 of their last ten on the road though and now face a desperate Orlando team who is fantastic on their home court. We like Orlando to get a win here.

ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans +7.5 at Oklahoma City Thunder, 9:30 PM ET - The Pelicans looked good in the opener of this series and the Thunder looked like a young team lacking playoff experience. New Orleans covered rather easily and could have stolen Game 1 had they hit a few open 3’s they missed late in the game. The Pelicans attempted 96 field goals in the game and dominated the glass with 52 rebounds versus 44 for OKC. The Thunder shot 44% overall and 31% from deep but had two quarters with 20 or less points. I originally liked the Thunder in Game 1 with the Pelicans coming off two huge emotional games then having to travel. But the Pelicans proved their 28-15 SU road record this season isn’t a fluke and with the G1 cover they are on a 15-5-1 ATS run as a road underdog. New Orleans also has a strong history when coming off a loss at 21-12-1 ATS with an average +/- in those games of +6.3PPG. OKC clearly has some strong home court statistical support but given the fact that the Pelicans shot poorly in the opener and still nearly won outright has us on New Orleans here. Four of the last five in this series have been decided by 7 points or less. Grab the digits.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 211.5 New Orleans at Oklahoma City Thunder, 9:30 PM ET - The opening game of this series was obviously very low scoring with 186 total points. That forced the oddsmakers to make a correction on the O/U number here, so we are looking at a much lower number compared to Game 1. We like the value with an Over bet on this one. In the opener these two teams combined for 181 total field goal attempts which is higher than the league average of 177 per game. The Pels had a poor shooting night at 39% overall and 28% from the 3-point line. Those averages are well below their seasonal numbers of 48.5% and 38%. We like a positive regression here for the Pels and more shots to fall in Game 2. The same case can be made for the Thunder. OKC shot 44% overall in Game 1 and 31% from Deep. Both well below their season average of 49.8% (3rd in NBA) and 38.8% (1st). With both teams expected to shoot better tonight we predict an easy Over winner in Game 2.

#77 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Nashville Predators +115 over Vancouver Canucks, Tuesday at 10 PM ET - Demko is the #1 goalie for the Canucks and he made a stellar early save in the Game 1 win.  Also, Saros is the #1 goalie for the Predators and the Canucks first goal was a bit of a soft one that normally Saros would save. Even with all this, the Predators still led the game 2-1 mid-way through the final period!  Per the above, that score truly could have been 3-0 in favor of Nashville.  The fact it was not and the fact the game ended up a 4-2 Vancouver win (Canucks got empty net goal to seal it) has led to line value here.  But why did this line come down even more?  It is because Demko is out for tonight for the Canucks.  DeSmith will get the call instead as Demko is said to have a minor injury and will miss at least this game.  DeSmith is just not on the same level as Demko and, before allowing 1 goal in his final regular season start, DeSmith allowed 6 goals in B2B starts!  The Predators played very well in Game 1 yet ended up with nothing to show for it.  Now you have a superb situation with a highly motivated team down 1-0 in the series and looking to take advantage of a back-up goalie who has played only once in recent weeks.  Saros is a veteran who is likely to be even better in Game 2.  DeSmith has made only one post-season appearance in his career!  On the other hand, Saros has played in 18 post-season games and is playing in his 6th post-season!  Take advantage of the line value in this one and grab the small dog money line price with the road team here as the Predators take advantage of the goalie situation and bounce back off the tough game 1 loss. Nashville is the bet here.

ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers +1.5 at Milwaukee Bucks, 8:30 PM ET - The Pacers looked like a bunch of young kids that never had a taste of playoff basketball in the first half against the Bucks. Milwaukee was up 69-42 at halftime with Dame Lillard going off for 35-points. Indiana played much better in the second half, outscoring the Bucks 52-40 while holding Lillard scoreless in the second half. Now that the Pacers have the jitters out of the way we expect them to win Game 2 in Milwaukee who will again be without Giannis. Indiana has won 4 of the last six meetings with Milwaukee and they own the best spread record in the NBA this season when coming off a loss with a 23-11-1 ATS record and an average +/- in those games of +4.8PPG. The Bucks have a losing spread record when coming off a win of 23-26 ATS with a plus/minus of +2.7PPG. Milwaukee is not a good defensive team so don’t expect them to hold the Pacers to 40% shooting again or 21% from Deep. Take Indiana in Game 2.

ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns +3.5 at Minnesota Timberwolves, 7:30 PM ET - The T’Wolves were disrespected in Game 1 with an opening line of -1.5 and were coming off a loss to the Suns so they clearly got up for the opener in a resounding 120-95 win. We like the Suns to rebound from that G1 loss and even this series at one win apiece. Phoenix had won 3 straight against the Wolves in the regular season with all of those wins coming by 7+ points. In the regular season finale on this court the Suns won by 19-points. In Game 1 the Wolves got a monster effort from Anthony Edwards who poured in 33 points on 14 of 24 shooting. ANT is obviously capable of those types of performances, but we like the Suns to make adjustments in Game 2 and force him to give up the ball early in the offensive set. Phoenix got a big game from KD who scored 31 and grabbed 7 boards but Booker was relatively quiet with 18-points. Bradley Beal scored just 15 after scoring 36 vs. the Wolves in the last regular season game. The Suns closed out the regular season with 4 straight road wins against Playoff teams and this veteran group will not be intimidated by the moment. The Suns 9-1 ATS streak in this series continues here.

ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets -7 vs. LA Lakers, 8:30 PM ET - The Nuggets had a long layoff going into Game 1 and it showed as they got off to a slow start and trailed early by as many as 12 points. Denver pulled together and dominated the last 3 quarters of the game. That makes it 9 straight wins for the Nuggets over the Lakers and there is not reason not to expect that trend to continue here. The Lakers are bad defensively, ranking 17th in defensive efficiency as they allow 1.154-points per possession. Since the All-Star break the Lakers rank 23rd in defensive Net rating and have allowed the 3rd most points per game in that time frame at 120.3PPG. Offensively the Lakers are ‘average’ in terms of offensive efficiency ranking 15th in the NBA. As we previously mentioned, Denver has owned the Lakers with 9 straight wins, they rank 5th in offensive efficiency and 8th in defensive efficiency. The Nuggets are 34-8 SU at home this season with an average +/- of +9.8PPG. Since the beginning of last season, the Nuggets are 78-17 SU at home +9.8PPG. LBJ and AD are soft like warm ice cream and both were dinged up a little in game 1 so don’t expect peak effort here. Lay it with Denver.

ASA top play on 10* Cleveland Cavaliers -5.5 vs. Orlando Magic, 7 PM ET - The young Magic had a fantastic regular season at 47-35 SU, but were 29-12 at home. On the road they were 18-23 with a negative differential of minus -3.5PPG. Orlando was great defensively this season ranking 2nd in DEFF but they struggled to score points ranking 22nd in OEFF while scoring just 110PPG. The Magic lack a big time shooter on their team and ranked 15th in team FG% overall, 24th in 3PT%. You can argue the Cavs are the same team ranking 18th in OEFF and 6th in DEFF. The Cavs though are a better overall shooting team at 47.9% (12th) and 36.7% in 3PT% (15th). Cleveland also played without their best scoring option in Donovan Mitchell (27PPG) who missed 27 games this season, along with Evan Mobley (16PPG) who missed 32 games and Darius Garland (18PPG) who only played 57 games. Despite all the missed time by key players the Cavs were still 26-15 SU at home in the regular season with the 11th best average point differential of +3.8PPG. In Game 1 the Cavs won by 14-points and they didn’t even play as well as we expected. The big edge the Cavaliers enjoyed in the opener and will not change here is their size and advantage on the board. Cleveland grabbed 54 rebounds compared to the Magic’s 40. We did expect the Magic to struggle offensively, and they did with only 32 combined points in the 2nd and 3 quarters. For the game the Magic shot just 33% overall and they may shoot better here but the Cavs are also going to improve over their Game 1 performance. Let’s lay it again in Game 2 with Cleveland.

ASA top play on 10* Oklahoma City Thunder -8 vs New Orleans Pelicans, 9:30 PM ET - The Pelicans have top 10 efficiency ratings in both offense and defense and are a team capable of coming out of the West statistically. But the reality is that they haven’t played up to those expectations lately with a 5-6 SU record and are now in trouble without Zion Williamson for the foreseeable future. The Pels are coming off two huge emotional home games just to get into the Playoffs and will have a tough time getting up for this Game 1. OKC is well rested, rank 3rd in offensive efficiency, 4th in defensive efficiency, are 33-8 SU at home and win on their own court by an average of +13.3PPG. OKC is 23-12 ATS as a home favorite this season with an average +/- in those games of +15.2PPG. The Thunder have won two straight in this series versus the Pelicans and 4 of the last five. We are backing the round 1, big home favorite in this matchup which has produced steady profits for 10+ years.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 231.5 Indiana Pacers at Milwaukee Bucks, 7 PM ET - This number opened at 239.5 and has been steadily bet down so we will step in now with the value-bet on the Over. Let’s start with the fact that these are the two worst defenses of all the Playoff teams. The Bucks rank 19th on the season in defensive efficiency allowing 1.159-points per possession. The Pacers are worse yet ranking 24th allowing 1.211PPP and over 120PPG. Things haven’t gotten any better since the All-Star break either as the Bucks have the 17th defensive Net rating, the Pacers are 18th. We also know both teams want to play fast and get out in transition. The Pacers are the 2nd fastest paced team in the NBA, the Bucks are 7th. When it comes to offensive efficiency the Pacers ranked 2nd in the NBA and scored 123.3PPG. Milwaukee was 6th in OEFF and put up 119PPG. We are confident we are going to get a big game from Dame Lillard or Khris Middleton or Bobby Portis. The season series between these two teams was very high scoring with total points scored of 272, 235, 266, 247 and 260. Bet OVER here!

ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -13.5 vs Miami Heat, 1 PM ET - As soon as the Heat vs Bulls game went final I was immediately poised to bet on the Celtics at home minus the points. Boston opened briefly at -12.5 and I was all in. Clearly the line has been adjusted slightly but we still feel there is value with the Celtics. Boston was in cruise control late in the season as they had home court wrapped up and focused on staying healthy down the stretch. Boston was the best team in the NBA the entire season and has the deepest team in the league. The Celtics had the best record in the NBA against the top 16 teams in the league this season at 27-14. They ranked 1st in OEFF and 3rd defensively. They had the best average Margin of Victory per game at +11.3 overall. They won at home by an average of +15.2PPG. The Celtics were near unbeatable at home and owned a 20-4 SU versus other playoff teams on their floor this season. In February the C’s were favored by -8-points in Miami so this line isn’t as high as it seems. Miami lost Jimmy Butler to a knee injury in the Play-In games and don’t have enough weapons to trade baskets with Boston. The Heat used a zone defensive effectively against the 76ers and Bulls but those two teams rank 23rd and 18th in team FG%. The Celtics have the 8th best team FG% in the NBA and the 2nd best 3PT% so the Heat zone isn’t going to work in this one. Big favorites in Round 1 have done historically well with a 59% cover rate and we expect the Celtics to make quick work of the Heat who upset them in the Playoffs a year ago.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 214.5 Phoenix Suns @ Minnesota Timberwolves, 3:30 PM ET - This is going to be a heated series and we expect this first game to be dominated by the defenses. These two met in the regular season finale and the O/U on that game was 216.5. The Suns won that game 125-106, an easy Over. So why did the oddsmaker adjust this number lower than that previous game? Digging deeper we find the combined field goal attempts by both teams (156) well below the league average of 177 per game. The main reason the game eclipsed the number was a great night of shooting by both teams. The Suns hit 55% overall and went 16-29 from the 3PT line for 55%. We expect a regression here as the Suns shot 49.3% on the season and 38.2% from Deep. Not to mention the Wolves have the #1 FG% defense in the NBA and rank 7th in opponents 3PT%. In that most recent game, the Wolves shot 51% and made 25 of 31 FT attempts. The Suns have the 8th best FG% D in the league and the Wolves rank 10th in team field goal percentage. This won’t be a high possession game either as the T’Wolves are the 24th slowest paced team in the NBA, the Suns rank 15th. Minnesota has a historically great defensive efficiency rating this season and the Suns were above average ranking 13th in DEFF. This one shapes up to be a grinder with a low output by each team. Bet UNDER.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 207.5 Orlando Magic at Cleveland Cavaliers, 1 PM ET - We will keep this analysis short and get right to the facts. These are two of the best defenses in the NBA with the Magic ranking 2nd in defensive efficiency allowing just 1.113 points per possession, the Cavs rank 6th. Cleveland has the 6th best FG% defense in the league and allow the 7th fewest points. Orlando allows a higher FG% but allows just 108.4PPG 4th fewest in the league and give up the 8th fewest points in the paint. Offensively neither team is great as the Magic rank 22nd in offensive efficiency, the Cavs are 18th. Cleveland is 12th in team FG% overall, 15th in 3PT%. Orlando ranks 15th in team FG%, 24th in 3PT%. Lastly, this should be a slower tempo game as the Magic are the 5th slowest paced team in the league, the Cavs are 9th slowest. The young Magic have not been in a pressure situation like this and the Cavs best scoring option Donovan Mitchell is less than 100%. We like UNDER.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 210 Sacramento Kings at New Orleans Pelicans, 9:30 PM ET - The oddsmakers have over-adjusted this number with the injury status of Zion Williamson. These two teams have met 5 times this season and put-up huge numbers in each of those games. They have combined to total 222 or more points in every clash this season and most recently amassed 258 total points just 7-days ago. The five meetings this season between these two have averaged 237.5PPG. We don’t see things changing here as both look to extend their seasons. We should get an average pace of play with the Kings ranking 13th in possessions per game and the Pelicans ranking 18th. The Kings do their scoring with volume as they attempt the 6th most field goals per game this season and 3rd most 3’s. The Pelicans do their damage offensively with the 9th best FG% and the 3rd best 3PT%. Sacramento is not a great defensive team to begin with so the Pels shouldn’t have any problems putting up a big offensive number here. The Kings held the Warriors to 94-points in their last game, but Golden State literally couldn’t throw it in the ocean, shooting 41% overall and 31% from Deep. The Pelicans scored 106 but attempted 93 field goal attempts. Had the Lakers not gotten to the FT line every other possession (surprise) this could have been a much higher scoring game if the Pelicans could have gotten into a rhythm. This number is simply too low and we expect a game closer to the league average of 227.4 total points.

ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans +1.5 vs. Sacramento Kings, 9:30 PM ET - We can’t pass on the Pelicans as a home dog here. We’ve seen it happen a million times, when a Super Star gets injured, in the very next game, someone shines in their absence. New Orleans is coming off a very tough home loss to the Lakers (outscored by 15 at the FT line) and will bounce back here. Sacramento on the other hand is off a huge win over the Warriors who eliminated them from the postseason last year. These two teams met in Sacramento on April 11th in a ‘must win’ for both teams and the Pelicans never trailed in a 12-point win. The Kings were -1.5-points in that game at home and are now favored on the road? This is a matchup problem for the Kings as they’ve lost 5 straight times this season to New Orleans. The Pelicans are far superior defensively with the 7th best defensive efficiency compared to the Kings who rank 15th. We are expecting a close game throughout but like the Pelicans to get it done at home.

ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls -3 vs Atlanta Hawks, 9:30 PM ET - The Hawks have the worst defense in the playoffs, ranking 27th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.194-points per possession and 120.5PPG. On the road their defense is even worse, and they lost road games this season by an average of -5.4PPG. The Bulls were 20-21 SU at home this season with a negative differential of minus -0.2PPG but 6 of their most recent 7 home losses have come against some of the best teams in the NBA. In the most recent meeting between these two teams the Hawks pulled the upset as a +2-point underdog on this floor 113-101. The Bulls had a horrendous shooting night while the Hawks shot lights out. We expect Chicago to shoot much better this time around against a Hawks defense that is 28th in opponents FG% overall and 3PT% defense. Atlanta is 10-17 ATS as a road dog with a negative differential of minus -8.1PPG. The Bulls have a losing ATS record as a home favorite but they do have a positive point differential of +2PPG. The Hawks are without Jalen Johnson which is a huge loss for them even though they get Trae Young back. The Bulls had a few impressive wins late in the season against the T’Wolves, Knicks and Pacers and we expect that momentum to carry over to this game. Lay it with the Bulls.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 221.5 Atlanta Hawks at Chicago Bulls, 9:30 PM ET - Let’s start on the defensive end of the court for both teams. The Hawks were bad defensively, I mean really bad, as in 27th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.194-points per possession. The Bulls weren’t a whole lot better, ranking 21st allowing 1.163PPP. Atlanta is the 6th fastest paced team in the NBA and will try to push the tempo. The Bulls were one of the slowest teams in the league and will want to slow things down. In the 3 meetings this season these two teams combined for 231, 262 and 214 total points. The lowest scoring game of the bunch was on April 1st but we did get 176 field goal attempts in that game. In that particular game the Hawks shot 50% overall and 48% from Deep, while the Bulls struggled at 39% overall and 25% from beyond the Arc. Chicago won’t shoot that poorly again versus this Hawks D that ranks 28th in FG% D and 3PT% defense. Not to mention, the Bulls have the 9th most efficient offense over their last 5 games in the NBA averaging 1.192-points per possession. When Atlanta has been on the road this season those games have averaged 229.3PPG. Chicago home games this season have averaged 233.7PPG. We expect plenty of points in this one…BET OVER!

ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -2 vs Sacramento Kings, 10 PM ET - If this game is like the last three in this rivalry it’s going to be close, but we like the veteran Warriors to pull out a win on the Kings court. The last three meetings have been decided by 1-point each with the Kings winning the last two games. Sacramento had their full complement of players for both of those W’s with Kevin Huerter and Malik Monk who are out here. The Warriors come into this game having won 10 of their last twelve games and have the 4th best Net rating (+9.1) in the NBA over that 12-game stretch. The Kings on the other hand have the 13th best Net rating at +3.8 and are 5-7 SU. Golden State is 25-16 SU on the road this season with the 4th best average point differential at +4.5PPG. The Kings are 24-17 SU at home with the 17th rated average point differential at +2.2PPG. With their shortened rotation the Kings have to rely heavily on Domantas Sabonis who has struggled when facing the Warriors and Draymond Green in the past. Golden State is peaking at the right time and we expect them to move on tonight.

ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans Pick -115 vs. LA Lakers, Tuesday 7:30 PM ET - This is an interesting number to say the least. As of this writing, the status of Anthony Davis is in question for the Lakers. We expect AD to play and this line to adjust to the Lakers as the favorite. When that happens, we will be on the Pelicans plus the points and will even venture a small wager as them as a low favorite. These teams just met the other day, and the Pelicans were favored by 3-points. Los Angeles smacked the Pelicans 124-108 behind some great shooting at 55%, well above their season average of 49.9%. New Orleans had a fantastic game from beyond the Arc (15/37 or 41%) and we don’t expect that to change here. The Pelicans have the 4th best 3PT% in the NBA at 38.3% and the Lakers ranked 25th in defending the 3PT line, allowing opponents to hit 37.5% from deep. The Pelicans have the 6th best Net rating in the NBA this season at +4.6, the Lakers are 18th at +0.5. Since the All-Star break the Pels have a +4.8 Net rating differential, the Lakers are +2.2. Contrary to what you might read or hear, the Pelicans are the better team in this matchup. New Orleans ranks 11th in offensive efficiency ratings this season, the Lakers are 15th. When it comes to defense, the Pels rank 7th in DEFF, the Lakers rank 17th. We like the Pelicans to get this home win Tuesday night.

#7/8 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 6 Goals - Carolina Hurricanes at Columbus Blue Jackets, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - The Hurricanes no longer have to worry about winning the division as the Rangers wrapped that up last night.  That is part of the reason Spencer Martin is getting the start in goal tonight and he is sure to be rusty.  Even though Martin has had decent numbers since coming to the Hurricanes this season, he has not played since the final day of February!  Yes, it is more than a month and a half for Martin.  No matter how much one practices and prepares as a goalie, there is still nothing like live game action and Martin could struggle a bit in this one given the rust aspect.  Speaking of struggling, Blue Jackets goalie Jet Greaves is 2-6 with a 3.55 GAA this season!  He also has allowed 4 or more goals in 3 straight starts!  Columbus has been eliminated for quite some time from the post-season and their record is not impressive to say the least.  Part of the problem is they allow far too many goals as they are not strong defensively or in goal.  We capitalize on that here as Carolina will be looking for one final tune-up before the post-season.  The key here though is that the Blue Jackets are likely to give a strong effort in their home ice finale.  Generally speaking they do play better on home ice and they will want to go out with a bang to wrap up their season.  With nothing to lose there should be quite an emphasis on the offensive zone in this one and plenty of attacking.  We do not expect a tight, defensive-minded checking style of game here as this one just does not offer that incentive for either club.  The Jackets have allowed 4 goals per game on average over their last 14 games.  They have scored 3.5 goals per game in the last 6 games on their home ice  The Hurricanes have won 5 straight games and 7 of last 8.  Carolina scored an average of 3.5 goals in those 8 games.  In a rather loosely played affair, there will be plenty of scoring opportunities and both these goalies are unlikely to be sharp for the reasons we noted above.  Look for at least 7 goals in this one!  Over is the play here.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 217.5 Phoenix Suns at Minnesota Timberwolves, 3:40 PM ET - This might be the biggest game on the schedule today as the Wolves can win the West and home court throughout the Western Conference Playoffs. If the Suns win and the Pelicans lose they can claim the 6th spot and avoid the Play-In Tournament. With so much on the line we expect a defensive showdown between these two teams. These same two teams recently met in Phoenix on April 5th and they produced 184 total points. The pace of that game was extremely slow as the two teams combined for only 161 total field goal attempts. Minnesota scored 26 or less points in every quarter, while the Suns scored 25 or less in 3 of the four. The Suns defense has been much better of late as they have allowed 105, 108 and 107 points against the Clippers (2xs) and Kings who both average over 116PPG on the season. We can count on the T’Wolves showing up defensively as they rate the best defensive efficiency unit in the NBA allowing just 1.088PPP. The Under is the play here.

ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers -14 vs. Atlanta Hawks, 1:10 PM ET - The Hawks are locked into the 9-10 matchup with the Bulls no matter what the outcome of this game. It will be much more important to get rest and stay healthy for that game. Indiana is treating this game like a Game 7 as a loss could potentially send them to a play in situation as low as the 8 seed. A win for the Pacers and they are guaranteed a top 6 seed. What makes the Pacers a more attractive large favorite than some of the other big chalks today in the NBA is the fact that they can put up a big offensive number here. Indiana is 2nd in offensive efficiency at 1.208PPP and scored 122.9PPG on the season. They are 25-15 SU at home this season and win on their home court by an average of +6PPG. Atlanta has struggled on the road this season with a 14-25 SU record and an average negative differential of minus -4.7PPG. Indiana has put up 157, 150 and 126 points in three games against the Hawks this season who have the 27th rated defensive efficiency rating in the league. The last two Pacer wins against the Hawks have come by 34 and 18-points.

ASA play on Phoenix Suns (Moneyline -190) at Sacramento Kings, 10:40 PM ET - This is a very unique bet for us and not a typical wager, but this situation is warranted. Last night we went against the Kings in a home game against the Pelicans and won. Tonight, the Kings face a rested Suns team that is in full playoff mode and 4-2 SU their last six games. Sacramento on the other hand is playing the second night of a back-to-back, 3rd game in four days and 4th game in six days. They are already short-handed with two starters out and All-Star guard De’Aaron Fox tweaked his ankle last night. When playing without rest the Kings are 5-9 ATS this season with a negative differential of minus -5.9PPG. Phoenix is 15-6 SU when they have a rest advantage over their opponents and they win those games by an average of 7.0PPG. These two teams are 2-2 SU versus each other this season, but the Suns have won the last two meetings. Sacramento has been a home dog just 4 times this season with a 2-2 SU record. Since this is a moneyline bet and we just need the Suns to win, Phoenix is 15-10 SU at a road favorite with an average +/- of +5.2PPG. Both teams have plenty to play for and in a playoff like atmosphere we trust the Super Stars in Durant and Booker.

ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -4.5 vs New Orleans Pelicans – 10 PM ET - Both teams have a ton to play for as far as seeding is concerned in the Western Conference. The Pelicans are trying to hold on to the 6th seed, while the Warriors are looking to move up from the 9th. Scheduling clearly favors the Warriors here who are off an easy win last night vs. Portland while the Pelicans are coming off a huge win in Sacramento last night. Golden State is 9-6-1 ATS when playing without rest this season with an average +/- of +6.1PPG. New Orleans is 7-5 ATS this season when playing without rest but the scheduling situation warrants a bet against them. Golden State looks like a team on a mission with a 9-1 SU record their last ten games, 4 of which have come against other playoff bound teams. New Orleans has won 3 straight, all on the road but this will also be their 3rd game in four nights and 4th in six days. Golden State has won and covered 3 of the last four meetings with the Pels and we like them by 8+ points here.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 223.5 Milwaukee Bucks at Oklahoma City Thunder, 8:10 PM ET - The Bucks are expected to sit nearly everyone tonight and will have a tough time scoring with the reserves playing the majority of the game. They just beat Orlando the other night and limited their starters in that game and as a team they only attempted 84 field goals. They put up 117-points as a result of 51% shooting overall and 38% from beyond the arc. Milwaukee will have a tough time scoring tonight against a Thunder team that is 6th in defensive efficiency on the season allowing just 1.126 points per possession. OKC just put up a big number against the Spurs but prior to that they had scored 113 or less in 5 of their previous six games. In fact, the Thunders net offensive rating over their last ten games ranks 13th. The Bucks defense is currently 7th in defensive net rating over their last 10 games. Milwaukee’s offensive net rating over the course of their last ten games is 19th worst in the league. The Bucks have been one of the fastest paced teams in the NBA this season, but in their last ten games they have slowed considerably and rank 15th in tempo. We don’t see these two teams getting into the 220’s tonight.

ASA top play on 10* NY Knicks -2.5 at Boston Celtics, 7:30 PM ET - The Celtics have nothing left to play for as they have the #1 overall seed locked up through the NBA Finals. New York on the other hand has plenty to play for as they sit in the 2nd seed in the Eastern Conference and could get the #2 seed if they win out or even fall back to the #6 or #7 if they lose out. Because of the circumstances you have to ignore the Celtics season dominance of the Knicks as they’ve won all 4 meetings with New York. Boston is going to sit players in this game (potentially Brown, Holiday, Tatum, Porzingis and Horford) and will waive the white flag early once they fall behind. The Knicks continue to get stellar play from PG Jalen Brunson (averaging 34PPG over his last 10 games) and now have Anunoby back in the lineup after missing several weeks with an injury. We love the Celtics depth but you can’t sit 3-5 of your starters and still expect to win in the NBA. New York clearly shouldn’t be favored on the road here, but the number tells us they are favored for a reason. Bet the Knicks.

#35/36 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 6.5 Goals - Ottawa Senators at Tampa Bay Lightning, Thursday at 7 PM ET - The Senators are off a shutout loss which is certainly a rarity for them, only their 2nd of the season. The other one was recent but was followed by a game that totaled 7 goals. We look for the Senators to again respond off a rare low-scoring loss as they entered that game with 7 of 9 games against Eastern Conference foes totaling at least 7 goals. Ottawa expected to start Anton Forsberg in goal and he has struggled in each of his last 2 appearances and got pulled from his most recent start. On the season Forsberg has an unimpressive 3.36 GAA. He has an .885 save percentage and Lightning goalie Matt Tomkins has a similar unimpressive .883 save percentage this season. Tomkins getting the start here because #1 guy Andrei Vasilevskiy needs a rest and #2 goalie Jonas Johansson has been dealing with a lower-body injury. So TB is using their #3 goalie here and we are sure that the Senators will respond off the shutout loss. Ottawa will struggle, however, on the defensive end as the Lightning continue to pile up goals. Tampa Bay wants to stay sharp offensively heading into the post-season. The Lightning have scored at least 4 goals in 4 straight games. Also, TB has scored an average of 4.4 goals in their current 11-3 run. Considering Tomkins has allowed at least 3 goals in all 4 NHL appearances this season and considering that Tampa is a heavy favorite for a reason, we have this one getting to at least 4-3 and 5-3 is even more likely. Look for at least 7 once again in this one! Over is the play here.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 215.5 Orlando Magic at Milwaukee Bucks, 8 PM ET - I’m going to trust the numbers here and not my own eyes and play Under in the Magic vs Bucks game. I sat through the Celtics/Bucks game last night and my assessment of the Bucks defense is that it’s bad. The Celtics only scored 91 points but it wasn’t because of the Bucks defense, they just missed shots they’d normally make. Boston had several uncontested dunks and wide open 3’s but shot just 40% for the game. With that said, the Magic aren’t a great shooting team at 47.7% (14th) and they hit just 35.3% of their 3-point attempts which ranks 22nd in the NBA. When it comes to efficiency ratings the Magic rank 22nd in the league at 1.136PPP. Orlando is also the 5th slowest paced team in the NBA at 96.8 possessions per game. The Bucks took a huge hit when Giannis went down last night and fortunately for them it looks like he could be back for the playoffs. That’s a big part of their offense that will be missing tonight. Even though I just ripped on their defense, they are currently 11th in defensive net rating over their last 10 games. Milwaukee’s offensive net rating over the course of their last ten games is 20th worst in the league. They have been one of the faster paced teams in the NBA this season, but in their last ten games they have slowed considerably and rank 14th in tempo. With both teams fighting for the 2nd or 3rd seed in the East we expect a defensive playoff type game. Bet UNDER!

ASA top play on 10* Orlando Magic - points vs Houston Rockets, 8:10 PM ET - After the Rockets colossal collapse against the Mavericks on Sunday which eliminated them from the postseason, we are betting they won’t show up for this game versus the Magic. We were very fortunate with our win on the Mavericks in that contest as the Rockets led from start to finish and were up by as many as 22-points at one time. It was a demoralizing loss to their in-state rival and now their season is essentially over. Orlando on the other hand still has plenty to play for as they currently sit 3rd in the East and could move up or even down depending on how they finish the season. Orlando is 18-20 SU away on the season and owns the 7th best defensive efficiency rating on the road as they allow just 1.140-points per possession. After winning 11 straight games the Rockets have now lost 5 straight and 3 of those came at home. Houston got off to a fantastic start at home this season but are now just 12-9 SU their last 21 on their home court. Orlando’s defense is top tier, ranking 8th in defensive net rating in their last 5 games, the Rockets are 30th or last in the NBA over that same 5-game stretch. Looking closer at both teams’ most recent 5-games we see the Magic rank 9th in overall Net rating, the Rockets rank 30th. We don’t see a team that is playing this poorly to all of a sudden rise to the occasion tonight in this meaningless game for them. Lay it with Orlando who wins this one going away.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 212.5 New York Knicks at Chicago Bulls, 8 PM ET - This game has playoff implications for both teams as they jockey for better seeding in the Eastern Conference. New York is looking to move up or just hold on to the 4th position which would mean home court advantage in the first round. The Bulls are essentially battling the Hawk for home court in the play-in game. One thing we know for sure in this game is that it’s going to be slow paced. NY is the slowest paced team in the NBA at 95.3 possessions per game. The Bulls are the 2nd slowest at 96.2 possessions per game. Chicago is average in terms of shooting percentage defense as they rank 15th in overall FG% D and 17th in 3PT%. The Knicks are a poor shooting team at 46.4% (24th) and rank 14th in 3PT% at 36.6%. New York is 11th in opponents FG% shooting and 16th in 3PT% D but the Bulls are 18th offensively at 46.8% and 20th in 3PT%. So, we know neither team shoots it well, both are adequate defensively and it’s going to be a low possession game. These two teams just met on April 5th and produced 208 points on this same court. These two teams have stayed below the total in 7 of their last ten meetings. We will make a play on the Under here.

#675/676 ASA PLAY ON Under – Purdue vs UConn, Monday at 9:20 PM ET - We anticipate this to be a slower paced game with limited possessions which will limit scoring. UConn ranks 328th in adjusted tempo and Purdue is outside the top 200. UConn’s games in the tourney have averaged 65 possessions per game and in their last 2 games vs 2 of the fastest paced teams in the country, Illinois & Bama, they had 69 and 63 possessions respectively. Purdue’s game vs NC State on Saturday had only 64 possessions and the Boilers have averaged 65 possessions per game in their 5 NCAA tourney tilts. Both of these defenses are playing at a high level right now with only 1 of their 10 combined NCAA tourney opponents reaching 70 points. That was UConn’s game on Saturday vs Alabama who came in averaging 90 PPG and only scored 72 despite shooting 48% from beyond the arc. Purdue is allowing just 60 PPG in the Big Dance while the Huskies are allowing just 57 PPG. Purdue’s games in the tourney are 4-1 to the Under and averaging 140 total points and that includes a game they scored 106 by themselves vs Utah State. Take out that one outlier and their games are averaging 131 total points. UConn is 5-0 to the Under in the tourney with their games averaging 139 total points and that includes 2 games vs Bama & Illinois, two of the top offensive teams in the nation who are both very fast paced. Only 3 of the last 12 National Championship games have topped 145 total points. Last year’s National Championship game totaled 135 points (this UConn team vs San Diego State) and we project a similar total on Monday. Defense and slow pace on Monday lead to an Under.

ASA play on OVER 227.5 Miami Heat @ Indiana Pacers, 5:10 PM ET - We expect plenty of points in this Eastern Conference showdown between two teams jockeying for better playoff positioning. Coincidentally, this game features a pair of Wisconsin guards in Tyler Herro and Tyrece Haliburton who I actually coached against and one of my son’s played against growing up. Herro returned to the Heat’s lineup and scored 17 points, had 6 assists and grabbed 5 rebounds on Friday against the Rockets. Herro is the Heat’s second leading scorer behind Jimmy Butler at just under 21PPG. Miami is on a current 5 game Over streak which includes a game against the Blazers were they put up 142-points. Today the Heat face a Pacers defense that is worse than Portland’s in terms of defensive efficiency allowing 1.181-points per possession. What Indiana does do well is score points with a highly efficient offense averaging 122.8PPG with an OEFF of 1.206PPP. Miami is averaging 109.9PPG over their last ten games and our math model has them scoring 115 versus this defense today. Granted the Heat have solid defensive numbers but Indiana scores on everyone including big numbers against three similar defenses lately in the Clippers, Lakers and Warriors. In two meetings this season one of these two teams has scored 140+ points. Both of those games had O/U’s set of 237.5 so you can see for yourself the value in today’s number. Easy call on the OVER here.

ASA top play on Dallas Mavericks (-) vs Houston Rockets, Sunday 3:40 PM ET - The Mavs have 9 of their last ten games and 13 of their last fifteen. They have done it with defense as they have one of the best defensive Net ratings since the All-Star break. Since the ASB they have an average +/- of nearly 7PPG. Houston was red hot with an 11 game winning streak and looked like a team that could sneak into the 10th spot in the Western Conference. But a 4-game losing streak has essentially eliminated them from post season contention. The Rockets haven’t been competitive in their last four games with an average loss margin of 16PPG. These two teams met in Houston on March 31st with the Mavs a 4-point favorite on the road. Dallas won that game by 18-points. The Mavs have won 5 of the last six meetings and they will get another big win here.

ASA top play on OVER 221.5 Atlanta Hawks at Denver Nuggets, 9:10 PM ET - We are betting contrarian here as the public is all over the Under in this game, but we’ll bet Over. This number is simply too low according to our models. Examining recent road games for the Hawks they had O/U numbers of 228.5 in Dallas, 227.5 in Phoenix and 226 vs. the Lakers in L.A. In the two games against the Suns/Lakers they allowed 136 and 128 and both games went Over the number easily. In their most recent game against the Mavs, they faced one of the hottest defenses in the NBA and only managed 95 points on 40% shooting overall, 34% from the 3PT line. Denver is one of the most efficient offenses in the NBA at 1.181-points per possession. Since the All-Star break they have the 3rd best EFG% in the NBA at 57%, the Hawks are 14th at 54.7%. Denver has had a few lower scoring games in recent weeks, but they came against other Western Conference teams fighting for playoff positioning. Now they face a Hawks defense that is 27th in opponents FG% defense, 28th in 3PT% D and they allow 120PPG (27th). This game goes Over the number.

#673/674 ASA PLAY ON Under 146.5 Points – NC State vs Purdue, Saturday 6:05 PM ET - Tough shooting venue here in Arizona (State Farm Stadium home of the AZ Cardinals) with a huge indoor football stadium hosting the Final 4. Neither team is really fast paced with NC State ranking 156th in possessions per game and Purdue 184th . Both have slowed the pace even more in the tourney with none of NC State’s 4 games getting to 70 possessions (including an OT game vs Oakland) while Purdue’s NCAA games have averaged 65 possessions per game. Both defenses are playing at a high level right now with neither allowing 70 points (in regulation) in their 8 combined NCAA tournament games. Purdue’s defense has been really solid all season long ranking in the top 20 in defensive efficiency and NC State’s defense has really played well down the stretch ranking 37th nationally in efficiency since the start of the ACC tourney (8 game sample). In the Dance NC State has 67, 66, 58 and 64 points and that includes 3 opponents who rank in the top 30 in offensive efficiency (Duke, Marquette, and Texas Tech). On the other end we think the Wolfpack will have problems scoring inside vs Purdue and Zach Edey who will make it much more difficult for DJ Burns, who had 29 points vs Duke, to score inside. That means NCSU will have to be lights out from beyond the arc which is not their strength (143rd in 3 point FG%). In their last 2 games Purdue held Tennessee (28th in offensive efficiency) to 66 points and Gonzaga (5th in offensive efficiency) to 68 points. Both of these teams have gone Under the total in 3 of their 4 NCAA tournament games and another is on the way Saturday. Under is our play.

ASA play on OVER 229.5 Cleveland Cavaliers at LA Lakers, 3:40 PM ET - We have lost a little value on this Over as the number was immediately bet up from the opener, but we still feel there is enough wiggle room for an Over bet here. The Lakers are playing fast and scoring points. L.A. is the fastest paced team in the league over a 10-game span at 102.91 possessions per game. In that same time period, they have the 3rd best EFG% at 57.2% and the 7th best offensive net rating at 117.3. The Lakers are averaging 123.1PPG over the past 10 games which is the highest number in the NBA by 3 points. When we continue to evaluate each teams last 10-game stretch we find the Cavs are 27th in defensive net rating while giving up on average 112.4PPG. Cleveland recently got great news with the return of Donovan Mitchell who will immediately bolster their scoring with his 26.75PPG. The Cavs have the 8th best EFG% over the last ten games and rank 12th in overall season FG% at 48% and 16th in 3PT% for the season. The Lakers are below average in both FG% defense and 3PT% on the season. An average NBA game this season will finish with 227.4 total points, but these two offenses are going to get into the 115 to 120 range and push this game Over the total rather easily.

ASA play on Chicago Bulls (-) vs NY Knicks, 8:10 PM ET - Great spot to fade the Knicks and bet on the Bulls. Chicago has been off since Monday and got some much-needed rest and we like the fact they are coming off a home loss. New York played on Thursday night in a home game against the Kings. This is also New Yorks 3rd game in four days, 4th game in six days and 5th in eight. This Knicks roster is already playing short-handed with key injuries to several starters. The Knicks are 4-7 ATS this season when playing without rest with a negative average point differential of minus -2.5PPG. New York is fighting for the 4th seed and home court in the first round of the playoffs, but the Bulls are fighting for their playoff lives as they currently sit 9th in the East. The Knicks normally enough a huge advantage on the offensive glass but that won’t be the case tonight against a Bulls team that is nearly as good as them when it comes to O-boards. The more desperate Bulls get this home win given the scheduling circumstances.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 228.5 Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets – 8:10 PM ET - This game will have a playoff vibe as the Rockets are fighting to get into the top 10 in the West, while the Warriors are looking to hold on to the 10th spot or move up. Since the All-Star break the Warriors are giving up 110PPG. Golden State has the 3rd best defensive Net rating in the league over a 5-game period and have held 4 of their last six foes to 100 or less points. The Warriors have slowed their pace of play considerably in recent games as they rank 18th in pace over their most recent 5-game span. The same can be said for the Rockets who averaged 99.53 possessions per game for the season but in their last 5 games that number has dipped to 97.76. Houston has the 11th best defensive Net rating over a 5-game period at 111.6. If we continue to focus on each teams last 5 games we find that both teams rank in the bottom half of the NBA in Net offensive ratings too. Houston has really struggled with shooting in that same stretch of games with the 27th rated EFG% at 53.5%. The Rockets have scored 107 or less in 3 straight games and 110 or less in 4 of five. When these two teams met on this floor back in October they produced just 201 total points. We are betting these two teams don’t get into the 220’s.

#681/682 ASA PLAY ON Over the Total – Indiana State vs Seton Hall, Thursday at 7 PM ET - Two peaking offenses should run this game into the 160’s on Thursday night. Seton Hall has scored 91 and 84 points in their last 2 games vs UNLV and UGA who both rank higher than Indiana State in defensive efficiency. The Pirates have averaged at least 1.14 PPP in each of their last 3 games and in their 4 NIT games they’ve shot 48% overall and 39% from beyond the arc. And every defense they’ve faced in the NIT to this point is better than ISU’s defense efficiency wise. The Hall will put up points in this game. We think the Sycamores will as well. They are a fantastic shooting team ranking 12th nationally in offensive efficiency, 1st in eFG%, 11th in 3 point FG%, and 3rd in 2 point FG%. In their 4 NIT games they’ve gotten to 100 points twice and they are averaging 90.5 PPG in those 4 games. While Seton Hall’s defense is solid (35th in defensive efficiency), State just put up 100 on Utah (top 50 defense) and 85 on Cincinnati (top 20 nationally in defensive efficiency). Indiana State likes to play fast on offense (37th nationally in adjusted tempo) and while Seton Hall’s year long numbers aren’t overly fast, they have decided to up the tempo in the NIT. In fact, since the start of the NIT tourney, the Hall ranks 45th nationally in tempo. We expect plenty of offensive possessions in this one. We don’t expect many “lost” points at the FT line in this one either with ISU hitting 80% of their freebies on the year and Seton Hall making 78%. The players have raved about the shooting lines and bouncy floor at Hinkle Field House saying it’s definitely a shooter’s gym. If the semi finals were any indication (190 total points and 151 total points) they were correct. Over is the call.

ASA play on Phoenix Suns (-) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers, 10 PM ET - Scheduling has a lot to do with this assessment on this game as the Cavs are in a tough spot here having played in Utah last night. Not only that, but the Cavaliers are playing their 3rd game in four days and 4th game in six days. The Suns are rested as their last game came on April 1st, a win in New Orleans. Phoenix is facing a brutal 3-game stretch coming up against Western Conference contenders which makes this game extremely important. The Suns are also 14-6 SU with an average +/- of +6.4PPG when they hold a rest advantage over their opponents. Cleveland is 5-7 ATS when playing without rest and has a negative point differential in those games of minus -3.2PPG. When we evaluate each teams last ten games we find the Suns have a +3.0 Net differential, the Cavs are minus -5.2 AND the Suns have faced a much tougher schedule over that 10-game span. In this must-win situation we like the Suns by double-digits.

#67/68 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 6.5 Goals - New Jersey Devils at New York Rangers, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - The Rangers are still trying to hold off the Hurricanes for the top spot in the Metropolitan Division and the Rangers still have a shot at finishing the regular season with the most points in the league and guaranteeing home ice for the entire post-season.  Also, the Devils are still mathematically alive for a post-season spot, though struggling in the last two games. Yet, even with these post-season implications a consistent factor for weeks now, both clubs continue to get involved in high-scoring games and we don't see that changing here.  The Rangers are starting Igor Shesterkin in goal and he has allowed at least 3 goals in 4 of last 5 starts.  The Devils will be starting Kaapo Kahkonen or Jake Allen in goal.  Kahkonen is off a strong start but those have been rare this season and he could be rusty if he gets the call here as he has not played in a week and a half.  Allen has been the designated #1 since being acquired in a trade last month (Kahkonen also was a recent trade acquisition).  All the transition in goal for New Jersey has not gone well as Allen is also struggling.  He has allowed an average of 4 goals in his last 4 starts.  8 of 10 Rangers games since mid-March have totaled 7 or more goals.  5 of 7 Devils games - including 3 in a row - have totaled 7 or more goals.  Look for at least 7 once again in this one!  Over is the play here.

ASA play on LA Clippers (-) vs. Sacramento Kings, 10 PM ET - The Kings recently beat this Clippers team in Los Angeles as a +4-point dog, 123-107. Prior to that meeting the Clippers had won two games against the Kings 119-99 and 131-117. In the Kings most recent win over the Clippers though, they were basically at full strength with Monk and Huerter both available. Those two combined for 27 points, 5 rebounds and 7 assists in that game. Both are out here with injuries and the Kings depth is a major concern. In their last five games the Kings have slipped in both offensive and defensive Net ratings and have a net differential of minus -1.1. The Clippers have run hot/cold in recent weeks and right now it looks like they are running hot with 3 straight wins, all on the road. In fact, the Clippers have won 5 straight away from home and 7 of their last eight on the road. This L.A. team has the 4th best average point differential on the road this season at +3.8PPG and hold a 25-14 SU road record. The Kings are below league average in home court point differential with a +1.4PPG average which ranks them 20th in the NBA. Both have plenty to play for as they jockey for playoff position, but the injury concerns for the Kings will be the difference here. The visitor has also covered 5 of the last six in this series. Lay it with the Clippers.

#663 ASA PLAY ON Georgia + the points over Seton Hall, Tuesday at 9:30 PM ET - We like UGA’s success and path through this NIT much more than Seton Hall. The Bulldogs had to go on the road and beat both Wake Forest and Ohio State, 2 teams rated higher than Seton Hall in KenPom’s rankings, while the Pirates played all 3 NIT games at home. The average rating of the teams Seton Hall has played in the NIT is 82nd (all at home) while Georgia’s opponents have an average ranking of 44th and 2 of those games were on the road. We’d be a bit concerned if Georgia was playing another road game without much rest but that isn’t the case as they’ve had a full week off since beating Ohio State in Columbus. They won those 2 road games with starting center Tchewa out (8 PPG / 6 RPG) with an illness (played 5 minutes vs OSU and didn’t play vs WF) and he is back at full strength. The Dogs have been pretty solid away from home this year winning 7 games (away/neutral) while scoring 74.5 PPG and allowing 76.5 PPG. They do have a negative PPG margin away from home, but as you can see it’s close. Seton Hall has played only once away from home since March 2nd and that was in the Big East Tourney at MSG in New York City which is only 17 miles from campus. The Hall wasn’t great away from home this year scoring just 67 PPG while allowing 74.5 PPG and their shooting percentage dropped more than 5% on the road (42%). Georgia has been undervalued down the stretch covering 7 straight games and as a dog this year they are 12-8 ATS. We have this game power rated closer to pick-em so we’ll take the value with a surging Georgia team.

ASA play on OVER Brooklyn Nets at Indiana Pacers, 7 PM ET - We expect a higher scoring game tonight when the Nets square off against the Indiana Pacers. There won’t be much defense played in this game as the Nets allow the 14th most points per game in the NBA at 113.5 and the Pacers give up 120.6PPG (28th). The Pacers are last in the NBA in opponents FG% defense allowing 49.8% overall and 36.6% from the 3-point line which ranks 19th. The Pacers offense is the best shooting team in the NBA at 50.3% overall and 9th best in 3PT% at 37.3%. They should put up a big number tonight against a Nets defense that ranks 18th in opponents FG% allowing 47.3% and 23rd in 3PT% allowing 37.3%. Indiana has scored 121 or more points in 6 of their last seven games and averaged over 122PPG on the season so you can bet they’ll get into the 120’s. That means the Nets need 110-points and we cash an easy Over. Even a poor offense like the Nets that ranks 22nd in Offensive Efficiency should get to that number against this porous Pacers D. Brooklyn does average 111.1PPG on the season and has put up 122 and 125 in a pair of recent games against the Wizards and Bulls. These two teams met on March 16th and combined for 221 total points, but the Nets had a horrible shooting night and just 77 field goal attempts. The Pacers made only 6 of 30 3-point attempts too (20%) which is well below their season standards. This game sets up nicely and we like the value with an OVER bet here.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER Utah Jazz at Sacramento Kings – 9:10 PM ET - We are not expecting many points to be scored in the NBA game as both teams are struggling to find their offenses and each has significant injuries. The Kings have stayed Under in 9 of their last ten games with the 19th worst offensive net rating over that span of games but the 5th best defensive numbers. In their last five games the Kings have played considerably slower too with a pace of 95.7 possessions per game versus their season average of 99.79. While we are on the subject of pace of play, the Jazz average 100.54 possessions per game on the season, but have dipped to 98.6 in their last ten games. Utah is also on a current Under streak with 7 of their last ten games staying below the Total. Offensively the Jazz have scored 107 or less 7 of their last ten games as a result of poor shooting with the 21st EFG% over that stretch of games. Sacramento has also had some shooting woes with the 20th worst EFG% at 52.5% in their last ten games. Both teams are right around league average in both overall FG% and 3PT% and now with the slower tempo from each we don’t see this game getting into the 220’s. The bet here is UNDER.

ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls + the points vs. Minnesota Timberwolves, 7:10 PM ET - We like the way the Bulls match up with the Timberwolves as they have the size and depth with Vucevic and Drummond to deal with Gobert and Reid in the paint. Chicago is the 10th best offensive rebounding teams in the NBA compared to the Timberwolves who rank 26th. The Wolves average 324.4 defensive rebounds per game, the Bulls average 32.6. Minnesota has won 4 straight games and are coming off a big win over the Nuggets a few nights back. The Bulls are off a tough loss to Brooklyn and have lost 4 of their last five but two of those came against the red hot Rockets and the Celtics. Chicago beat this Wolves team in early February by 6-points in OT. The Bulls have won 4 of the last 6 meetings with Minnesota. The T’Wolves have another big Western Conference game on deck versus the surging Rockets and may look past this Bulls team. The line is inflated and we will grab the value with the Bulls and the points.

#658 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Duke - the points over NC State, Sunday at 5 PM ET - We were wrong on Duke Friday night as we thought Houston would really limit them offensively which they did with the Devils scoring only 54 points. Problem was, Houston lost their top offensive player and one of the best guards in the nation, Jamal Shead, to an injury in the first half and they could get nothing going offensively after that. We pretty confident that injury cost the Cougars the game (lost 54-51). Either way, we’re now getting solid line value with Duke in this spot vs a team they’ve faced twice this season. Just 2 weeks ago in the ACC tourney, the Blue Devils were an 11 point favorite vs this NC State team and now they are laying only 6.5 on a neutral court. When the faced off @ NC State the number was the same as it is here with Duke as a 6 to 6.5 point true road favorite. The 2 teams split their games with Duke winning at NCSU by 15 and then losing by 5 in the ACC tournament. In their loss 2 weeks ago, Duke shot just 5 of 20 from deep (25%) while the Wolfpack hit 44% of their 3’s which was the difference in the game. Duke is the much better offense and better shooting team by quite a wide margin (13th best 3 points shooting team in the country / NCSU is 134th) so we expect those tables to turn here. In the 2 games Duke outrebounded NC State in both and had fewer turnovers in the 2 games combined. If the shooting gets back to form where the Blue Devils should hold a decent edge, they should cover this number. NC State is a bit fortunate to be here as Marquette was a terrible 4 of 31 (13%) from 3 point land with the majority being wide open looks. Just a bad shooting night for the Golden Eagles. Defensively they held the Pack to under 1.00 PPP but just couldn’t make an open shot. Speaking of 3 point variance, in their 3 NCAA tourney games, Wolfpack opponents (Texas Tech, Oakland, and Marquette) have combined to make only 23 of 97 shots from deep (23.7%). That’s against an NCSU defense that ranks 280th defending the arc. We anticipate the Devils drastically improving those numbers on Sunday. Duke gets a shot at some fairly quick revenge here and NC State is now officially overvalued on their 8 game winning streak. Lay it with Duke.

#653 ASA PLAY ON Clemson + the points over Alabama, Saturday at 8:45 PM ET - We went against Bama on Thursday night when they faced UNC. The Tide pulled out a tight 2 point win but the Heels shot just 38% overall vs a Crimson Tide defense that was rated by far the worst remaining in the Sweet 16 (104th in efficiency). The Heels attempted 11 more field goals and made 1 more FT but lost the game because of their poor shooting effort. Alabama shot 48% overall and 42% from beyond the arc and despite those shooting numbers which were much better than UNC’s their largest lead of the game was just 5 points. Bama is one of the fastest paced teams in the nation and there is no way Clemson gets into a run and gun game with them. The Tigers are a slower paced team and have tamed a few other fast paced teams during this tourney. On Thursday they took down Arizona (fast paced and top 11 in both offensive and defensive efficiency) and led pretty much throughout. In fact, the Wildcats largest lead of the game was just 1 point. Prior to that Clemson rolled a very good Baylor team who ranked 6th nationally in offensive efficiency at the time. Their defense has been outstanding holding New Mexico to 56 points (Lobos average 81 PPG), Baylor to 64 points (Bears average 80 PPG), and Arizona to 72 points (Wildcats average 87 PPG). These 2 already met this season and Clemson beat Bama on the road by 8 points, one of only two home losses this year for the Tide. The Tigers have proven they can get it done away from home with 12 wins this season (road & neutral) including some very impressive wins @ Alabama, @ North Carolina, and @ Pitt. One of their road losses was a last second 1 point loss @ Duke in which the Devils made 2 FT’s with under 1 second remaining to win. These 2 teams have the exact same 24-11 record with each facing top 20 strength of schedules. We have these 2 rated dead even on a neutral court so the value is with the dog. Take Clemson.

ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Bucks (-) vs. Atlanta Hawks, 7:40 PM ET - This is a great spot to back the Bucks and fade the Hawks. The Hawks are coming off a thrilling OT win at home over the Celtics on Thursday night and could be flat here with a shortened rotation. The Bucks meanwhile are off a pair of difficult losses to the Lakers and Pelicans. In the win the other night over the Celtics the Hawks got a huge game from Dejonte Murray who poured in 44-points, but it took him 44-shots to get there. The Bucks have two solid perimeter defenders in Beasley and Beverly who should be able to slow down Murray here. Milwaukee’s recent loss was especially tough as they held the Pelicans to 40% shooting overall and 25% from the 3-point line but the Pels benefitted from 34 trips to the FT line compared to the Bucks 19. Milwaukee is solid off a loss with a 17-9 SU record and an average +/- in those games of +4.5PPG. The Bucks have an overall losing ATS record on the road as a favorite at 12-15 but they do own a positive differential of +4.5PPG. Atlanta is 4-7 ATS as a home dog this season with a negative differential of minus -3.9PPG. The Bucks should enjoy a shooting advantage here with the 7th best FG% offense facing a Hawks D that ranks 28th in opponents FG% allowing 49.4% on the season. Milwaukee is 8th in 3PT% offense, the Hawks are 28th in 3PT% defense. Atlanta does not shoot the ball well either, ranking 20th in team FG% while the Bucks are 11th best in the NBA in FG% D allowing 46.9%. This line might be a little intimidating to you but consider the Celtics were just favored by -16-points here the other night. Lay it with Milwaukee.

#651/652 ASA PLAY ON Over the Total – Illinois vs UConn, Saturday at 6 PM ET - We have the 2 most efficient offenses in college basketball facing off here and we look for a high scoring game. Connecticut ranks #1 in adjusted efficiency (1.27 PPP) and Illinois ranks #2 (1.26 PPP) and they’ve been even better the 2nd half of the season with both averaging 1.32 PPP since mid February (#1 and #2 nationally in that time period as well). Both average over 80 PPG and both are very balanced scoring from inside and outside so both are tough to guard. Illinois has scored at least 80 points in 16 of their last 21 games. The Huskies have scored at least 80 points in 8 of their last 14 games and they are facing an Illinois defense that would rank as the 3rd worst defense in the Big East. Both teams protect the ball very well which will limit wasted possessions and both are among the top offensive rebounding teams in the nation which should lead to a number of extra possessions. We were on the Illinois vs Iowa State over 147 on Thursday night. That was an ISU defense that was ranked #1 nationally in efficiency and isn’t nearly as good offensively as this UConn team. They finished with 141 points (72-69 Illinois win) but did so shooting a combined 40% overall and missing 18 combined FTs! That game easily could have been in the 150’s. UConn just scored 82 points on a slow paced San Diego State team that ranks 11th nationally in defensive efficiency. Now they face an Illinois team that is fast paced and is barely inside the top 100 in defensive efficiency. The Huskies will score here and while they’ve been very good defensively, we think Illinois puts up plenty of points as well as they’ve done on pretty much everyone. There are 4 defenses in the Big 10 ranked inside the top 20 nationally in efficiency (MSU, Rutgers, Maryland, Purdue) and Illinois averaged 77 PPG in those 8 contests. Both teams fully capable of reach 80+ points here and we’ll grab the Over.

ASA play on Sacramento Kings over the Dallas Mavericks, 10:10 PM ET - These same two teams recently met on this court and the Mavs handed the Kings a 132-96 beatdown. Dallas had an unusually hot shooting night 55% from the field and 56% from Deep. The Kings had a horrible shooting night at 39% overall and 37% from the 3-point line. These two teams are shooting roughly 48% from the field for the season, so you can see the disparity in the last game compared to ‘average’ statistics. The Kings had beaten the Mavs twice this season prior to Tuesday’s game and we expect them to get immediate payback here. Sacramento is 19-10 SU coming off a loss this season with an average +/- of +3.2PPG. Dallas is great as a road favorite but just 5-11 SU as an away underdog. Sacramento has a positive point differential at home, the Mavs have a negative differential on the road. Take the Kings here.

#646 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Houston -3.5 over Duke, Friday at 9:40 PM ET - Houston is the type of team Duke will struggle with. The Cougs are an in your face defense that plays very physical. The rank 2nd nationally in defensive efficiency and eFG% allowed and 3rd in defensive turnover rate. This will be the best defense Duke has faced this season by quite a wide margin. UNC was the best defense (efficiency wise) in the ACC and they handled Duke twice fairly easily. The Heels don’t create turnovers however (outside the top 300). The ACC had one team rank in the top 25 in defensive turnover rate, Florida State, and in their game vs the Noles, Duke (finished 7th in the ACC in offensive turnover rate) turned the ball over on a whopping 25% of their possessions. Now they get a Houston defense that combines efficiency and turnover rate at the highest level. Duke rolled through their first 2 opponents, Vermont (13 seed) and JMU (12 seed), but they now take a huge step up in competition. Houston got their scare in the round of 32 topping a red hot Texas A&M team in OT. The Cougars led that game by 13 with just over 3:00 minutes remaining before the Aggies made their crazy comeback. Much is made of Houston’s outstanding defense, but their offense ranks 14th in efficiency so this team is very balanced. They are 32-4 on the season facing the 22nd most difficult schedule (Duke has faced the 69th SOS) and only 1 of their 32 wins has come by less than 4 points. Duke has faced 3 games this season vs teams in the top 10 per KenPom and they are 0-3 SU in those games (Houston ranked #2). The Devils beat up on the teams they should but they tend to struggle vs high level teams. They are just 5-4 SU in Quad 1 games this season while Houston is 17-4 SU vs Quad 1 opponents. On the similar note, Duke is 0-2 ATS as a dog this season (losses vs UNC & Wake) and 0-4 ATS getting points the last 2 seasons. In regards to the NCAA tourney, Duke beats lower seeded teams in the Dance but when they step up, the struggle. IN fact the last time Duke beat a higher seed in the NCAA tourney was 1994! This veteran Houston team was ousted in the Sweet 16 last year and they are on a mission this season. It’s a semi home game for Houston (in Dallas), they are the better, more physical team and we like them to get the win and cover on Friday.

#639/640 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 154.5 Points – Gonzaga vs Purdue, Friday at 7:35 PM ET - We have two of the top offenses in the nation facing off here with Purdue ranking 3rd in offensive efficiency and Gonzaga ranking 7th. As you might expect they are also 2 of the top shooting teams in the country both ranking in the top 15 and they average 85 PPG (Gonzaga) and 64 PPG on the season. This should be a fairly high possession game as the Zags like to play fast (top 90 in adjusted tempo) and Purdue, while not ranked quite as high in that metric, is fine with playing up tempo. When these 2 met back in November, Purdue won the game 73-63, but there were 73 possessions in that game so they had their chances. Just a poor shooting night for Gonzaga in general at 38% which is way below their season average of 52% which is #2 in the nation. The combined 3 point percentage in that game was also a very poor 20% (10 of 49 overall) from 2 top shooting teams (Purdue is #1 on the nation in 3 point percentage). The Bulldogs offense is humming to say the least. Since mid February they rank 2nd nationally in efficiency and #1 in eFG%. They’ve scored at least 80 points in 16 of their last 20 games and 2 of the games they did not were vs St Mary’s a top 5 defense that plays at one of the slowest rates in the country. Purdue is nearly impossible to defend with Edey controlling the middle and kicking out for 3’s if doubled and the Boilers are the top 3 point shooting team in the nation hitting almost 41%. The Zags strength is not on the defensive end ranking outside the top 40 in efficiency and even worst outside the top 170 defending the arc. This will be a keep up game in our opinion. Both teams will score points and their opponents will have to keep up on the scoreboard. Over is the call.

ASA play on Indiana Pacers over the LA Lakers, 7:10 PM ET - We like the Pacers to bounce back here off a 26-point loss on Wednesday in Chicago to the Bulls. This is also a quick rematch as the Lakers recently beat the Pacers in L.A. 150-145. The Lakers are playing their 3rd straight road game and have won 5-straight games. Indiana has the 10th best average margin of victory at home at +5.0PPG and owns a 21-15 SU record on their home court this season. The Pacers have done well when coming off a loss this season with a 21-11 SU record and a +3.0PPG average MOV in those games. The Lakers have had their struggles on the road this season with a 14-20 SU record and a negative average point differential of minus -5.0PPG. The Lakers hold an advantage defensively with the 15th rated defensive efficiency rating compared to the Pacers who rank 25th. Offensively though the Pacers rank 2nd in OEFF, the Lakers are 16th. The Lakers fell into the trap of playing fast with the Pacers in the most recent meeting and when they do that here it won’t end well for them. Back the Pacers at home, off a loss, playing with revenge.

#631/632 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 145.5 Points – Illinois vs Iowa State, Thursday at 10:10 PM ET - Illinois just continues to put big points on the board no matter who they play. After scoring 85 in the round of 32 vs Duquesne (slow paced team with top 30 defense) the Illini have now put up at least 80 points in 16 of their last 20 games. We realize ISU has a high level defense (24th nationally in FG% allowed) but we like Illinois to still be successful offensively. Against the best defensive teams in the Big 10 the Illini offense was still high level scoring 80 on Michigan State (11th nationally in defensive efficiency), 86 on Rutgers (4th in defensive efficiency), and 85 on Maryland (12th in defensive efficiency). Illinois ranks #1 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency (1.26 PPP) and we have our doubts that ISU can slow them down. This is going to be a game that the Cyclones have to put points on the board to keep up. We think they will. As much is made about their defensive prowess, let’s remember Iowa State averages 75 PPG and they are top 50 nationally in terms of offensive efficiency. They will do well on that end of the court vs an Illinois defense that simply isn’t very good. They rank 92nd nationally in defensive efficiency (2nd worst defense remaining) and since mid February this defense is rated just 188th in efficiency. We were on ISU vs Washington State Under in the round of 32 which was a winner but that was a Wazzou team that plays great defense and slows the pace. Illinois likes to play fast and Iowa State is much faster paced this season (206th) than last season (328th) so they are not necessarily a “slow” team anymore. Both offenses will have success here and we’ll take the Over on Thursday night.

#636 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* North Carolina -4 over Alabama, Thursday at 9:40 PM ET - UNC is the much more balanced team in this one ranking in the top 16 nationally in both offensive and defensive efficiency. While Bama has a great offense, their defense is by far the worst remaining in the Sweet 16 ranking outside the top 100 in both efficiency and eFG% allowed. The Tide simply wasn’t playing well down the stretch and they’ve been fortunate to get to the Sweet 16. Since mid February they rank just 49th nationally in team efficiency (per Bart Torvik) and 163rd in defensive efficiency. UNC ranks 9th and 10th in the nation per those 2 metrics during that time period. Prior to the Big Dance, Alabama had lost 4 of their previous 6 games and one of their two wins during that stretch was in OT at home vs Arkansas, one of the worst teams in the SEC. In the Dance they opened with College of Charleston whose defense ranked outside the top 200 in eFG% and 3 point FG % allowed which matches up very poorly vs the Alabama offense (Bama shot 60% for the game). Even with that, C of C lost but put up nearly 100 points on Bama (109-96 final). Over the weekend they topped Grand Canyon in what was a close game throughout (CG led with 6:00 remaining in the game) despite the Antelopes missing 14 FT’s and making only 2 of their 20 three point attempts and hitting only 32% of their shots overall! UNC comes in off 2 easy wins including topping Michigan State, easily the best opponent either of these 2 have played in the Dance, by a final score of 85-69. MSU’s defense was playing fantastic leading into that game (7th nationally in defensive efficiency since mid February and 11th for the entire season) but the Heels ate them up for 85 points on 1.20 PPP. What are they going to do to a bad Bama defense? On offense the Tide don’t create turnovers but they thrive on offensive rebounding for 2nd chances. Versus Grand Canyon the corralled 43% of their misses giving them a number of 2nd chance points which gave them the edge along with CG’s terrible shooting night. That won’t happen here vs a great rebounding team in UNC who ranks 6th nationally in defensive rebounding. UNC was 14-6 SU this season in road/neutral games while Alabama had a losing record in that situation. We’ve been hoping that Alabama would make it here so we had a chance to fade them vs a high level opponent. Take North Carolina to roll in this game.

ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans (+) vs Milwaukee Bucks, 8:10 PM ET - More money and tickets have come in on the Bucks, yet the line has fluctuated in the direction of the Pelicans. Both teams are off disappointing losses as the Bucks lost at home to the Lakers after blowing a lead late in that game. The Pelicans lost a crucial home game to Oklahoma City as the Thunder shot 53% in a 7-point win. Both teams are great when coming off a loss as the Bucks are 17-8 SU in that situation, the Pelicans are 18-9 SU. Milwaukee is 17-18 SU on the road this season with a negative overall differential at minus -0.2PPG. New Orleans is 20-14 SU at home with an average Margin of Victory of +5.4PPG. The Pelicans have been great against non-conference opponents with an 18-9 SU record and an average +/- of +7.7PPG. The Bucks versus the West is 15-12 SU +0.2PPG. We like the Pelicans here to get a win on their home floor.

#624 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Utah -6 over VCU, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - VCU has made a very impressive run through the NIT to this point but this is where it ends. Not only has this team been on the road for 3 NIT games already (this will be the 4th), but if we go back to the A10 tourney (Brooklyn, NY) and the end of the regular season this will be the Rams 8th straight road game. Those games have been crammed into a short time period as well. In fact, since the start of the A10 tourney, this will be VCU’s 7th straight game away from home in just 15 days. In the NIT alone, they’ve already traveled to Philadelphia, then Tampa on Sunday, and now Salt Lake City where they’ll play in high altitude for the first time this season. Not ideal for a team that has played 7 games in 15 days. Utah, on the other hand, will be playing their 3rd straight home game and just their 3rd game in 13 days since losing to Colorado in the Pac 12 tourney back on March 14th. VCU’s defense has carried them to this point holding Villanova & South Florida to 65 points or less but now they face a Utah offense that has scored 81 & 84 points in their 2 NIT games. At home the Utes are 16-2 on the year with 1 of those losses coming vs Sweet 16 participant Arizona and that loss was in triple OT. Utah hits over 49% of their shots and 39% of their 3’s at home while averaging 85 PPG. Tired legs made worse in high altitude for the Rams will be a problem both slowing down Utah’s offense along with trying to keep up and make shots on the other end. Lay it with Utah.

ASA top play on 10* Dallas Mavericks +1.5 at Sacramento Kings, 10 PM ET - The Mavs have a slight scheduling advantage here as both teams played last night but the Kings are playing their 3rd game in four days and 5th in seven nights. As we mentioned, Dallas is also off a game last night in Utah, but they had been off since the 21st prior. The Mavs are 21-12 ATS on the road this season and have been great playing without rest with an 8-3 ATS record and an average +/- of +3.3PPG. Sacramento on the other hand is 4-8 ATS when playing without rest with a negative differential of minus -3.8PPG. The Kings have beaten the Mavericks twice already this season so we know the Mavs will come into this game with a chip on their shoulders. Sacramento is only 6-5 SU their last eleven games going into Monday night and two of those wins were against the Spurs and one versus the Grizzlies. The Mavericks are 4-2 SU their last six on the road heading into Monday night. Dallas owns the 7th best EFG% in the NBA since the All-Star break, the Kings are 12th. The road team has covered 6 of the last seven in this series and we are betting that trend continues here.

#29/30 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 6 Goals - Boston Bruins at Florida Panthers, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Huge game at the top of the Atlantic Division and the way these goalies are going coupled with some key players coming back for the Panthers has us liking the over here. Both Aleksander Barkov and Gustav Forsling are coming back for Florida in this one. Forsling had contributed 7 points in his last 8 games for the Panthers before being ruled out recently and Barkov is 2nd on the team in the assists and also a solid goal-scorer. He'll be back on the top line tonight and the first power play unit. As for the goalies here, Florida's Sergei Bobrovsky is winless in 4 straight and has allowed at least 3 goals in all 4 outings. Boston's Jeremy Swayman has lost 2 of his last 3 and he has allowed at least 3 goals in all 3 of those! Both teams have plenty of solid offensive production and, given the above, we expect each team gets to the 3-goal mark here. Florida is off a 4-1 win but allowed 3.6 goals in their 5 games before that. The Panthers have scored at least 3 goals in 10 of the last 13 games. The Bruins have lost B2B games so they are hungry to respond here. Prior to the 3-2 loss to the Flyers, Boston had 5 of the last 6 games total at least 6 goals and we like this one to get there as well! The Bruins and Panthers both have been solid on the power play this season and this huge game could be a bit chippy resulting in even more power plays. Look for at least 7 in this one! Over is our play here.

#609 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Georgia +9 over Ohio State, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Georgia has had an impressive run this far in the NIT beating Xavier at home and then topping Wake Forest (the highest rated team in the NIT per KenPom) on the road on Sunday. We’re a little concerned that the Dogs have to play 2 days later on the road again, but this is a deep team that ranks 77th in bench minutes which helps in this case. In Sunday’s win UGA played 9 players double digit minutes and only 1 logged 30+ minutes. Wake was without starting guard Sallis in that game which obviously helped, however the Dogs were at a disadvantage as well with starting center Tchewa who was sick on Sunday. They are hoping he’s back and ready on Tuesday @ OSU. The Buckeyes are a bit banged up themselves. New head coach Diebler, who had the interim tag removed last week, gave them a day off after beating Va Tech over the weekend to try and recover from some of their ailments. Their best player, PG and leader Thornton (16 PPG), took a shot to the leg in the Va Tech win and he is questionable here. OSU won and covered vs the Hokies but they weren’t overly impressive getting outshot percentage wise from the field and from 3 point land, however the Bucks made 29 FT’s to just 16 for VT. Despite the large disparity at the line, OSU only won the game by 8 points. Georgia has proven a decent road team with near .500 record in true road games (5-6 SU) and only 2 of those losses came by more than 9 points (OSU -8.5 in this one) vs NCAA tourney teams Auburn & Mississippi State. OSU has won their first 2 NIT games by 5 points vs Cornell and by 8 vs Va Tech with a +21 made FT disparity (combined in those 2 games) yet both were close. Take the points.

#845/846 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 143.5 Points – VCU vs South Florida, Sunday at 7:30 PM ET - Our power ratings have this total set in the high 130’s so some solid value on the Under here. Both defenses are better than the opposing offenses in this one. VCU and USF have defenses that rank in the top 45 in eFG% and both are in the top 40 defending the arc which is key here. Both offenses rely heavily on the 3 point shot with each ranking outside the top 350 in percentage of points from inside the arc. That’s a tough spot for the offenses facing formidable 3 point defenses and we anticipate tired legs which affects jump shooting teams more than anything. VCU is playing their 6th game in 12 days (all away from home) and USF if playing their 4th game in 10 days. We wouldn’t look for either team to light it up from deep in this game. Both are poor offensive rebounding teams so 2nd chance points should be minimal. VCU is a very slow paced team and they get their tempo for the most part. Especially down the stretch where they faced 2 fast paced teams in the A10 tourney (UMass & St Joes) and those 2 games ended with only 61 and 63 offensive possessions. The Rams have played 7 straight games where the total ended 140 or less and we look for another here. We like the Under in this NIT battle.

#839/840 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 168.5 Points – Alabama vs Grand Canyon, Sunday at 7:10 PM ET - Two fast paced teams with Bama ranking 4th nationally in possessions per game and Grand Canyon ranking 114th. The Antelopes are actually very similar offensively (tempo, PPP, eFG%) to Bama’s first round opponent College of Charleston and we know how that one turned out (Bama 109 to 96 final score). We were impressed with Grand Canyon’s offense in their NCAA opener vs St Mary’s where they put up 75 points on the Gaels who are one of the slowest paced teams in the nation and a top 5 defense efficiency wise. Now they face a fast paced team that struggles defensively with the Crimson Tide ranking 117th in defensive efficiency, 141st in eFG% allowed, and 353rd in scoring defense giving up 82 PPG. We look for GC to have success on offense tonight. On the other end, Bama is just an offensive juggernaut. They rank 3rd nationally in efficiency, 5th in FG’s made per game, 3rd in 3 pointers made per game and #1 nationally in scoring putting up 91 PPG. With a great offense and suspect defense, Bama’s games have averaged 172 total points this season. Here’s a crazy stat…In Alabama’s last 10 games, at least 1 team (Bama or their opponent) has scored 100+ points and the 2 prior to that one of the teams scored at least 99 points. Thus in 9 of their last 12 games, someone has scored at least 99 points. These 2 have combined to go 43-22-1 to the Over this season. This is a high total for a reason. Over is the play.

ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Bucks -2.5 vs Oklahoma City Thunder, 7 PM ET - We have to back the Bucks here at home as a small favorite. Milwaukee has won 5 straight at home and are 28-6 SU at home this season with an average +/- of +7.4PPG. Going back even further the Bucks are 61-17 SU at home since the start of last season with an average MOV of +6.6PPG. With a low number on this game we need Milwaukee to win outright and they are finally healthy with Middleton, Giannis and Lillard on the floor. We are not blind to the fact that the Thunder are one of the best road teams in the NBA at 21-13 SU but we aren’t impressed with their last 3 wins on the road as they came against the Raptors, Grizzlies and Blazers. With the season winding down we like how the Bucks are playing and they look like a team that could contend to win it all this season. The Thunder are obviously very good but Milwaukee has owned them in recent years by winning 5 straight in the series and 7 of the last eight meetings.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 233 Oklahoma City Thunder vs Milwaukee Bucks, 7 PM ET - We have two of the best offensive teams in the NBA squaring off when the Thunder face the Bucks in Milwaukee. The Thunder rank 3rd in offensive net rating since the All-Star break, the Bucks are 5th. Both teams average over 120PPG which ranks top 5 in the league. The Thunder are the 2nd best FG% team in the league at 50%, the Bucks are 7th at 49.1%. Milwaukee is the 7th best 3-point shooting team in the NBA at 37.9%. OKC is 1st at 39.2% from Deep. Both teams don’t need a ton of possessions to score either as they are highly efficient at 1.197-points per possession (Milwaukee) and 1.202PPP for OKC. With both teams having a great shot at getting to 120 each we predict and easy OVER here.

#827 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* James Madison +7.5 over Duke, Sunday at 5:15 PM ET - Impressive performance by JMU on Friday dominating a good Wisconsin team despite the Dukes shooting only 41% overall and 29% from deep, well below their season averages. They were extremely aggressive defensively turning the Badgers over a season high 19 times from a team that averages less than 10 TO’s per game. The refs let them play in that game and if they do the same here, JMU has a very good shot at the straight up win. Duke doesn’t handle aggressive, physical play very well in our opinion. The 2 teams in the ACC who are similar to JMU as far as defensive turnover rate are FSU & Syracuse and Duke had 28 combined turnovers in their 2 games with those teams. On Friday the Blue Devils faced a Vermont team that rarely turns teams over (304th nationally) and they still turned the ball over 15% of their possessions. Vermont’s offense was terrible with a 0.78 PPP and they were dominated on the boards as we expected. Duke also made 18 more FT’s in the game which was obviously significant in a 17 point win. They won’t out physical JMU and their won’t be any domination on the glass for Duke in this game. Our one fear is the refs call this one tighter than the Wisconsin game (it is Duke and they tend to get the benefit of the doubt from the zebras) but even if that happens we still like James Madison to hang around. Duke wasn’t playing great entering this tourney (3-3 SU record their previous 6 games) but had a favorable draw with Vermont who isn’t overly physical and not a great shooting team this year. That’ changes on Sunday. JMU has only 3 losses this season and only one by more than 6 points. Take the points.

ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -9.5 vs San Antonio Spurs, 8 PM ET - The Suns are finally healthy for the first time of the season and building continuity as they head to the playoffs. Phoenix has won 2 straight games handily with wins over the Hawks by 13 and the 76ers by 13-points. San Antonio is coming off a game against Memphis on Friday and they've struggled when playing without rest. The Spurs are 2-9 SU when playing without rest this season with a negative differential of minus -10.4PPG. When the Suns are facing a team and have a rest advantage they are 12-6 SU +4.9PPG. The last time the Suns were a road favorite they won by 22-points. Phoenix has two huge games looming against Denver and OKC so they had better win this game. We like the Suns in a big win here.

#796 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* NC State -6.5 over Oakland, Saturday at 7:10 PM ET - We faded NC State on Thursday vs a very good Texas Tech team thinking they would have some lingering affects from their 5 games in 5 days ACC tourney run the previous weekend. Well they didn’t look sluggish as they rolled to a double digit win over the Red Raiders. NCSU now takes a big step down in competition from what they’ve been playing to this point. The Wolfpack have now won 6 straight games including wins over teams ranked 8th, 9th, 32nd, 71st and 86th per KenPom. They won all but 1 of those games by at least 8 points. Now they face an Oakland team ranked 130th and to put that in perspective that would put them as the 2nd worst team in the ACC ahead of only Louisville. We really respect the Grizzlies program and head coach Greg Kampe but they simply shot lights out from deep in their win over Kentucky. They hit nearly 50% of their triples and Jack Gohlke, who’s hitting 36% of this 3’s this season, attempted 20 and made 10 in the win. We don’t see them duplicating that here. They were facing a young Kentucky team with 5 freshman in their rotation playing in their first NCAA tourney. Now they face an NC State team that plays all juniors and seniors. Oakland is a fairly small team with 1 player that is over 6’7 and we don’t think they have anyone to match up with NCSU’s big man Burns who has averaged 16 PPG on 62% shooting during this 6 game run. We’re backed here by a strong round 2 NCAA trend that says teams that win in round 1 as double digit favorites are 4-18 SU (7-15 ATS) in their 2nd game dating back to 2005. NC State moves on to the Sweet 16 with a win and cover here.

#806 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Ohio State -3.5 over Virginia Tech, Saturday at 7 PM ET - We love the way OSU has played down the stretch this parting ways with head coach Holtmann. The players love interim coach Diebler and he was just named head coach moving forward so we sense some excitement with the players in this program. Since letting Holtmann loose, the Buckeyes have gone 7-2 with one of those losses coming by just 3 points vs Illinois in the Big 10 tourney. That was a game the Bucks led by 10 points midway through the 2nd half. They had a bit of a scare in the opening round of the NIT but held off Cornell 88-83. The Big Red hit 49% of their shots in that game to stay close but OSU dominated the boards with a +17 rebound margin. Saturday they face a Va Tech team that beat Richmond at home in the NIT opener but now must go on the road where they’ve won only 2 games the entire season. The Hokies have a PPG margin of -8 on the road this season and they have only 3 quad 1 wins this season with the most recent coming in January. OSU is 14-4 at home with 3 of their 4 home losses coming vs NCAA tourney teams (Wisconsin, Illinois, and Texas A&M). The Buckeyes average home score this year is 77-67 and we expect them to win and cover on Saturday. Lay the 4 points.

#799/800 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 129 Points – Washington State vs Iowa State, Saturday at 6:10 PM ET - Two of the very best defenses in the nation squaring off in this game. Iowa State ranks 2nd nationally in defensive efficiency and Wazzou ranks 22nd. ISU allows just 61 PPG and that was playing in a Big 12 conference with 5 teams ranked in the top 30 in offensive efficiency. Washington State gives up 66 PPG and they just allowed 61 points to a Drake offense that was rolling coming into the game averaging 84 PPG over their previous 11 games entering last night. The Cougars held a very potent Colorado offense (25th in offensive efficiency) to 58 points in the Pac 12 tourney the their other conference tourney game they limited fast paced Stanford to 62 points. The best offense by far in the Pac 12 was Arizona (88PPG – 3rd most nationally) and in their 2 games vs the Cats they held them 15 points below their season average (74 & 73 points in 2 games vs WSU). This should be a very slow paced game as well with Washington State ranking 312th in adjusted tempo and ISU is middle of the pack in that stat but can play either way, fast or slow. The Cyclones have stepped it up defensively late in the year holding their last 9 opponents to 65 points or less. In the Big 12 tourney they held KSU to 57 points, Baylor (one of the top 3 point shooting teams in the nation & scored 92 in their NCAA opening game) to 62 points and then stopped Houston in their tracks with just 41 points. Neither offense shoots many 3’s both ranking outside the top 290 in percentage of points from deep, so this one will mainly be played inside the arc. With the winner heading to the Sweet 16, both teams lean on their strength here which is defense. Under is the call.

ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -4.5 vs Indiana Pacers, 10 PM ET - The Warriors will look to build on their momentum following a blowout home win over the Grizzlies on Wednesday night. Golden State looked very good in that game shooting 58% overall and 49% from Deep. That shooting success should carry over here against a Pacers team that rank 29th in opponents FG% allowing 49.9%. Not to mention Indiana doesn’t defend the 3-point line well as they allow foes to hit 36.9% of their 3PT attempts which ranks 20th. Indiana is obviously a great shooting team themselves, but the Warriors defense ranks 8th in opponents 3PT% and 12th in FG% defense. The Pacers have also struggled shooting in recent games with an EFG% of 55.2% which ranks 16th in the league over the last 5-games. Golden State is 17-9 SU/ATS when facing an Eastern Conference foe this season. Indiana is 10-14-2 ATS versus the Western Conference. Golden State went to Indianapolis in early February and destroyed the Pacers 131-109 and never trailed in the game. Expect another dominating performance here.

#769/770 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 158.5 Points – Colorado vs Florida, Friday at 4 PM ET - This one is going to be a track meet. The Gators rank 18th in adjusted tempo and 10th nationally in offensive possessions per game. While the Buffs aren’t as fast, they aren’t slow either. They are 143rd in possessions per game and in the top 100 in average possession length on offense so they get shots off fairly quickly. Offense is the strength of both teams with Florida ranking 15th in offensive efficiency and Colorado coming in at 27th. They also rank 7th (Florida at 85 PPG) and 38th (Colorado at 79 PPG) in scoring. When they do miss shots, both the Gators and Buffs are among the best offensive rebounding teams in the country so look for a number of 2nd chances on both ends. They both get to the FT line at a decent rate so we should see plenty of FT attempts as well. Neither defense is great a limiting opponents scoring with Florida giving up 78 PPG (323rd nationally) and Colorado allowing 71 PPG (187th). They also both rank outside the top 155 in opponent FG%. The Gators and their opponents have reached at least 155 points in 12 of their last 16 games. The team in the Pac 12 that is most similar to Florida in regards to pace is Arizona. They are almost identical. They are also very close offensive efficiency wise. In their 2 games vs Zona, the Buffs gave up 99 & 97 points and the 2 teams combined for 147 points and 178 points. In their first meeting Arizona did their job offensively but CU scored only 50 points on a terrible 0.69 PPP. The Buffs were without 2 of their best players in that game but when at full strength in the 2nd game the points were abundant. These teams have combined for a 42-27-1 to the Over this year and we project both to get into the 80’s.

#776 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Baylor -13.5 over Colgate, Friday at 12:40 PM ET - Colgate won the Patriot League as they’ve become accustomed to but this is not one of Matt Langel’s better teams. They are ranked 144th per Ken Pom which is their lowest rating to end the regular season since 2018. Last year they were ranked 30 spots higher, made the NCAA tourney and got rolled by another Big 12 team Texas who won by 20 points. The Raiders lost all 4 games vs top 100 competition this season with 3 of those set backs coming by at least 17 points. There isn’t a single team in the Patriot League ranked higher than 260 (besides Colgate) so it’s been a long time since this team faced a high level opponent. Their strength of schedule is 340th and they faced only 6 opponents that fell into quad 1 or 2 this season and finished 1-5 in those games. Baylor is a top 15 team per KenPom and one of the best offensive units in the nation. Unlike Colgate the Bears faced 19 Quad 1 teams this year and finished those games with a winning record (10-9). They are the 6th best 3 point shooting team in the nation with 3 guys in the rotation hitting over 41% from deep. They are also the 6th most efficient offense in the country averaging 1.22 PPP. The Raiders have very solid numbers guarding the arc, however is that because their defense is high level or because they faced mainly poor shooting teams. We’ll lean toward the latter. They didn’t face a single 3 point shooting team in the Patriot that ranked above 120th and the average 3 point percentage rank of the teams they faced in conference play was 235th. Colgate isn’t an overly efficiency offensive team this season (209th) and we just think they’ll have trouble keeping up in this game. We like Baylor to roll.

#734 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Tech -4.5 over NC State, Thursday at 9:40 PM ET - The situation heavily favors Tech in this game. The Red Raiders beat BYU by 14 in the opening round of the Big 12 tourney and then lost to Houston last Friday. That means they’ve had nearly a full week to get rest and get ready for this one. NC State, on the other hand, played 5 games in 5 days and won the ACC Tourney to get into the Dance otherwise they were not in. They were underdogs in each of the last 4 games of that tourney and won each. Now playing on Thursday rather than Friday is not ideal for this Wolfpack team that isn’t very deep to begin with. Let’s keep in mind that prior to their 5 game stretch in the ACC tourney, the Wolfpack had only win 4 of their previous 14 games with 3 of those wins coming vs non NCAA tournament teams. Tech was a bit under the radar this year but this team is very good. They finished tied for 3rd place in the ultra tough Big 12 (tied with Baylor) behind only Houston & Iowa State, 2 top 6 teams nationally per KenPom. NC State finished with a losing record in a down ACC and wouldn’t be here at all if not for a 5 game run in the tourney. Texas Tech has better numbers both offensive and defensive efficiency along with better eFG% stats on both ends of the court. The Raiders get to the line more often as well and when they do they hit 78%. They also are one of the top 3 point shooting teams in the country (37th) and they are facing an NCSU defense that ranks 246th defending the arc. Tech played the tougher schedule and has a fairly large advantage in efficiency margin despite that. Tech is the better team and in a much better situation. We’ll lay it.

ASA top play on 10* Houston Rockets -2.5 vs Chicago Bulls, 8:10 PM ET - The Rockets are on a 6-game winning streak and have won 8 of their last 10 games with the two losses to playoff bound Phoenix and the Clippers. Houston has been solid all season long at home with a 23-11 SU / 23-10-1 ATS record. The Rockets win at home by an average of +6.1PPG. Chicago is 3-3 SU their last six games and 6-4 SU their last ten. On the road this season the Bulls are 16-18 SU with a negative loss margin of minus -3PPG. The Bulls are beat up right now with several players potentially out for this game including Caruso and White. Offensively these two teams have very similar statistic but the Rockets hold a big advantage defensively. Chicago is 19th in offensive efficiency, the Rockets are 20th. Houston has the 6th best FG% defense in the NBA and the 3rd best 3PT% D. The Rockets allow just 1.128-points per possession which is the 7th best number in the NBA. The Bulls by comparison allow 1.161PPP which ranks 17th. The play here is on the Rockets.

#750 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Gonzaga -6.5 over McNeese State, Thursday at 7:25 PM ET - Everyone seems to be on McNeese but we like this match up for the Zags. McNeese had played nobody this year with a 336th SOS. They have only played 2 top 100 teams all season and their big win early was vs Michigan and Wolverines ended up being terrible this year so not the huge win we thought it was at the time. McNeese has great defensive numbers, however they’ve played nobody with an offense like the Zags. In fact, not a single offense in the Southland Conference ranks in the top 200 in efficiency so the numbers are skewed. Same on offense for the Cowboys. Very good numbers but the Southland has one defense ranked in the top 200 in efficiency. Gonzaga ranks 9th nationally in offensive efficiency and they are the 2nd best shooting team in the nation at almost 52%. McNeese really thrives on creating turnovers which turn into extra possessions, however Gonzaga doesn’t turn the ball over (14th in the country in offensive turnover rate). The Cowboys are also one of the shortest teams in the Dance and we project Gonzaga will dominate the boards in this one. The Zags are off loss in WCC Championship game and 10 days off to put that behind them. Prior to that had won 14 of 15 including winning @ Kentucky in February. Mark Few is simply a great coach – 24 straight NCAA appearances – with an NCAA tourney record of 41-22 SU. The game is out west in Salt Lake City so Gonzaga should have a strong home court type advantage as their fans travel very well. We like this McNeese team but they haven’t played a single team anywhere close to as good as Gonzaga this year. This number seems light so we’ll lay the 6.5 points.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 216.5 LA Clippers @ Portland Trailblazers, 10:10 PM ET - We expect plenty of points tonight in the Western Conference game between the Clippers and Trailblazers. Examining recent games between these two teams we find the two games this season finished with 234 and 259 total points, both easy Overs. Going back to last season these two teams have gone 4-1 to the Over when playing each other and all 5 have finished with more than 217 total points. We expect the Clippers to bounce back after a pair of horrible offensive outings against the Hawks and Pelicans. Tonight, they face a Blazers defense that ranks 22nd in defensive efficiency allowing 1.176-points per possession and 115.9PPG. The Clippers have the 5th best offensive efficiency numbers on the season at 1.196PPP. Portland has allowed 118 or more points in 6 of their last nine games and has the 5th worst FG% defense in the NBA since the All-Star break. The Blazers have been shooting much better over their last five games and a large part of that is due to the improved play of center Deandre Ayton who is averaging 26.8PPG in his last 6 games. The Clippers sport the 7th best EFG% in the league at 56.6% and they should enjoy a great shooting night versus this Blazers defense. With more tickets and public money coming in on the Under, the line has ticked up which is a tell for Over bettors.

#712 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Indiana State -7 over SMU, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - We expect Indiana State to come into this one with a huge chip on their shoulder after being shunned by the NCAA tournament committee. They absolutely deserved to be in the Big Dance as they rank 45th overall per Ken Pom which is higher than 30 teams that are in the NCAA tourney including a number of at large teams including Virginia, Northwestern, South Carolina, and Drake. The Sycamores were 13-1 SU at home this season and 28-6 overall. They are the best shooting team in the NATION in regards to eFG% and they rank #1 inside the arc making 62% of their shots and 11th nationally in 3 point shooting at 38.5%. On top of that, they make over 80% of their FT attempts. They lost by 4 points vs Drake (who is favored in the NCAA tourney over Washington State) in the MVC Championship but they’ve had a chance to recover as that was 10 days ago. SMU looked like they had a decent shot at the NCAA in late February (ranked 42nd per KenPom at that time) but they tanked it big time down the stretch losing 5 of their last 6 games and dropped 20+ spots in KenPom’s ratings. The Mustangs overall are ranked 66th per Bart Torvik, however since mid November this team ranks 124th so a sharp drop off over the last month as we discussed. Their defense during that stretch since mid February ranks 142nd in efficiency which will be a big problem vs Indiana State’s potent offense. ISU, on the other hand, was still playing very well down the stretch winning 15 of their last 18 games yet was excluded from the NCAA which is the direct opposite of how SMU was playing late. With Indiana State playing at home with a lot of rest we see them playing very well in this game vs an SMU team that may not be as interested limping into this road game. Lay it.

#21/22 ASA TOP PLAY ON 6* OVER 5.5 Goals - Chicago Blackhawks at Los Angeles Kings, Tuesday at 10 PM ET - We had our eyes on this one since the Blackhawks got embarrassed on home ice by these Kings less than a week ago by a 5-0 count.  Chicago, though that game was a rare exception, has been scoring better of late.  The Blackhawks have averaged scoring 5 goals per game in their other 5 games the last two weeks!  Chicago took advantage of facing some weaker competition in some of those games but still it builds confidence for this team and now they are out for revenge and playing with more confidence in the offensive zone.  The issue for the Blackhawks is their defensive play and netminding leaves a lot to be desired.  If Soderblom is between the pipes, he is 4-19-1 with a 4.02 GAA this season!  If Mrazek is between the pipes he has been solid on home ice but has struggled badly away from home with a 3-15-1 record and a 3.70 GAA this season on the road!  So, even though we anticipate a solid effort from Chicago in the offensive zone tonight, we also look for them to continue to struggle in terms of goals conceded.  Los Angeles is off a low-scoring loss and the the last 4 times LA was off a defeat they responded with a win each time and scored an average of 4 goals in those victories.  The Kings do have an anticipated tougher game tomorrow versus Minnesota and, since they also beat the Blackhawks 5-0 last week, don't be surprised if the defensive intensity of LA is not at its best tonight.  That being said, we look for Chicago to score multiple goals but struggle badly to stop the Kings as Los Angeles has another big game on offense.  Look for at least 6 in this one!  Over is our play here. 

#671 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Colorado State -2.5 over Virginia, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - We wanted to fade this UVA team in the ACC tourney but they kept getting favorable draws which prevented us from doing that. They faced Boston College playing their 3rd game in 3 days and the Cavs squeaked by with an OT win. Then they faced an NC State team playing their 4th game in 4 days and Virginia lost that game in OT. Most didn’t think they deserved to be in the tourney and we agree. Their offense is just bad, averaging only 63 PPG and they didn’t reach 60 in regulation in either of their 2 ACC tourney games. The Cavs were held to less than 60 points in 6 of their final 8 games and they make their 3’s at a decent rate (36%) they have very little inside game ranking 310th in 2 point FG%. They are facing a solid CSU defense that led the Mountain West in 2 point FG% defense so UVA better be making their 3’s or they are in trouble. The Rams defense as a whole has been very solid this season ranking in the top 40 in defensive efficiency and they should have a huge edge offensively. They rank 13th nationally in FG% hitting 49% of their shots and CSU averages 76 PPG. Neither team is great at offensive rebounding and both protect the ball well (few turnovers) so we don’t see many extra possessions for either side. If this one is close as the spread suggests, FT shooting could loom large and CSU has a huge edge there hitting 76% of their freebies compared to 63% for Virginia. The Rams have much better adjusted efficiency margin numbers AND they played the tougher strength of schedule on top of that (65th SOS to UVA’s 77th SOS). Lay the small number with Colorado State.

#684 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Butler -3.5 over Minnesota, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - Minnesota had a shot at the NCAA tourney in mid February but this team faded down the stretch losing 5 of their last 6 teams. They weren’t competitive in any of those 5 losses with all coming by double digits. They aren’t a deep team and their head coach Ben Johnson basically said they ran out of gas. It’s going to be tough for them to go on the road and get a win here. They’ve only won 2 road games all season and those game vs Michigan (the worst team in the Big 10) and Penn State (had a losing record). Watching them down the stretch, we’re not sure this Minnesota team will be all that fired up to play in the NIT, especially on the road, despite what they are saying in the media. Butler is much more likely to bring intensity in this one playing at home. The Bulldogs are the better defensive team (51st defensive efficiency vs 133rd for Minnesota per Bart Torvik) and they are in the top 70 nationally in offensive turnover ratio compared to the Gophs that have a much higher turnover rated ranking 215th. As you might expect looking at the turnover rate stats, we like Butler’s backcourt much better than Minnesota’s which is key. The Bulldogs have a very solid 3 guard line up (Brooks, Alexander, and Davis) that combines to average 40 PPG and almost 9 assists per game. Butler is a solid 3 point shooting team (35%) and they are facing a Minnesota defense that ranks 324th guarding the arc. As we’ve stated many times this year, it what is expected to be a close game, FT’s will most likely be key. Butler makes 79% of their FT’s (9th best nationally) and Minnesota hits just 69% from the stripe (291st nationally). Lay it with Butler.

ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans -7.5 at Brooklyn Nets – 7:30 PM ET - We will look to fade the Nets who are returning home after a 6-game road trip that saw them go 1-5 SU with losses to the Pistons, Hornets and Spurs who are three of the worst teams in the NBA. New Orleans has had a few days off and are on a heater right now with 2 straight wins and W’s in 6 of their last seven games. They have also covered 6 of their last seven overall with three in a row on the road. In their last three road games the Pelicans have a 13-point win in Atlanta, an 8-point win in Philly and a 41-blowout in Toronto. New Orleans should enjoy success from beyond the Arc tonight with their 5th best 3PT% going up against a Nets defense that ranks 23rd in 3PT% defense. The Pelicans should also enjoy a sizable advantage on the boards with a top 10 rebounding team going up against a bottom 10 rebounding team in Brooklyn. New Orleans is 9-8 ATS as a road favorite but they do have an average MOV of +10.9PPG. The Nets are 8-9-1 ATS as a home dog with an average loss margin of minus -4.8PPG. These teams met back in January with the Pelicans winning 112-85. This time around won’t be as dramatic of a victory, but we like the Pels to win by double-digits.

#670 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Howard -3 over Wagner, Tuesday at 6:40 PM ET - Howard made the Big Dance last season and they returned 4 of their top 8 rotation players from that team so they have some experience in this situation. They also added F Seth Towns who played for Ohio State last year and he’s putting up over 12 PPG. This team is decent offensively averaging 75 PPG and hitting 37% of their triples (31st nationally). That’s a problem for Wagner who has a very poor offense. Can they keep up? Wagner averages just 63 PPG (352nd nationally) and they rank 334th in offensive efficiency, 353rd in eFG%, and 358th in 2 point FG%. Those numbers are bad, especially playing in the Northeast Conference that has half of their teams ranked outside the top 300 in defensive efficiency. Wagner has decent defensive numbers but all of the offenses in their conference rank outside the top 250 and 6 of those 10 teams rank outside the top 300 in offensive efficiency. Their opponent tonight, Howard, would easily be the best offense in the Northeast Conference. Now add in the fact that Wagner wasn’t even close to the best team in their conference, finishing with a losing record (6th place), but made a run in the NEC tourney to get here. They are banged up and thin with only 7 healthy players heading into this tourney. We’ll take the Howard Bison to win and cover on Tuesday.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 225 Atlanta Hawks at LA Lakers – 10:40 PM ET - The Hawks are coming off a solid 110-103 win over the Clippers last night in this building and we expect them to have another good shooting night against the Lakers. The Hawks hit 17 of 34 3-point attempts and led by 26-points after the 3Q. The Lakers aren’t as good defensively as the Clippers and certainly don’t defend the 3-point line well at all ranking 25th in 3PT% defense. The Lakers give up on average 117.6PPG which is the 23rd highest number in the NBA. The Hawks just played in Utah a few nights ago and the O/U was 223.5 and the teams combined for 246 total points. The Jazz are similar to the Lakers in terms of offensive efficiency and pace of play. The Lakers are better defensively but will likely be without their best interior defender Anthony Davis tonight. The Lakers are going to put up points of their own tonight against this Hawks defense that ranks 28th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.196-points per possession and 120.8PPG. Los Angeles has the 3rd best team FG% in the NBA at 49.9% and the Hawks allow 49.3% which is the 28th worst number in the league. LA should also connect from Deep against this Atlanta defense that allows opponents to hit 38.3% of their 3PT attempts which is 28th in the NBA. LA has scored 120+ in 4 of their last five games and allowed 120+ in 4 of five. Easy OVER call here.

ASA top play on 10* San Antonio Spurs -1.5 vs Brooklyn Nets, 8 PM ET - The Spurs are still playing hard despite a horrendous season in the win/loss column. The Nets still have an outside shot to make the post season but they are just 13-31 SU their last 44 games. Even in losing lately the Spurs have been competitive against playoff bound teams such as Denver, Golden State, Sacramento, Indiana, OKC and Minnesota in recent weeks. In their last ten game stretch they have three quality wins against the Thunder, Pacers and Warriors. Tonight they catch the Nets coming off a game last night in Indianapolis and this will be Brooklyn’s 6th straight road contest. Brooklyn is 10-23 SU on the road this season with an average loss margin of minus -6.9PPG which is the 24th highest differential in the NBA. The Nets are 4-6-1 ATS when playing the second night of a back-t0-back this season with a negative average differential of minus -10.1PPG. They are 1-7 ATS as a Dog when playing without rest this season. San Antonio has only been favored in 5 games this season and they’ve covered 4 of them. Take the Spurs in this one.

#644 ASA TOP PLAY ON VCU -2 over Duquesne, Sunday a 1 PM ET - VCU was the better team in the A10 all season long and we’ll lay the small number here. The Rams had a higher adjusted efficiency margin vs nearly the exact same strength of schedule. Duquesne has a tendency to struggle offensively and playing their 4th game in 4 days may intensify those struggles. They have failed to top 70 points in 5 of their last 6 games and they rank 14th in the league (out of 15 teams) in offensive efficiency averaging just 1.00 PPP. They should struggle here vs a VCU defense that has held all 3 opponents in the A10 tourney to 62 points or fewer. VCU is also playing their 4th game in 4 days but they are a much better offensive team averaging 1.06 PPP on A10 play, they rank as the 2nd best 3 point shooting team in the conference and make 79% of their FT’s in league play. Both teams are obviously very motivated as the winner moves onto the Big Dance and the loser does not, however we may have a little extra incentive for VCU who lost their regular season home finale to this Duquesne team. We’ll put an asterisk by that win for the Dukes as VCU played without their leading scoring Shulga (15 PPG) who is back and put up 25 points in yesterday’s win over St Joes. The Atlantic 10 Finals has been very chalky with the favorite going 21-9-1 ATS over the last 31 seasons. We’ll call for another favorite to cover and take VCU today.

ASA top play on 10* Sacramento Kings -3 or -3.5 vs NY Knicks, 10 PM ET - We like the surging Kings in this matchup and expect Sacramento to light the beam in this home contest against the Knicks. Sacramento is 4-1 SU their last five games and it includes a win over the Bucks and two against the Lakers. In their last ten games they also have wins over the Timberwolves and Clippers. New York is 3-2 SU their last five games, but the wins aren’t as impressive as they came against the Magic, struggling 76ers and a bad Portland team. There is a lot of talk about the Knicks recent defensive prowess but again those numbers are skewed based on the offenses they’ve faced. Tonight they face a Kings offense that is one of the best in the league. Sacramento is 9th in offensive efficiency at 1.178-points per possession, they rank 9th in team FG% and 7th in EFG%. In analyzing each teams last five games we see the Knicks have the #1 defensive efficiency rating in the league allowing .977PPP but they are 27th in offensive efficiency in that same 5-game stretch. Conversely, the Kings have the 3rd best OEFF in their last five games AND rank 9th in DEFF. NY is 7-10-1 ATS as a road dog with a negative differential of minus -2.9PPG. Sacramento has a losing spread record at home as a favorite but do own a positive average scoring differential of +1.8PPG. The Knicks are going to have a tough time keeping up offensively in this game as the Kings have too many weapons with Fox and Sabonis.

#634 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* North Carolina -9.5 over NC State, Saturday at 8:30 PM ET - NC State has made a valiant run in the ACC tourney to this point but this is where it ends. The Wolfpack are playing their 5th game in 5 days (+ OT last night vs UVA) with a short line up of just 7 rotation players. They caught some breaks along the way with Duke, one of the top 3 point shooting teams, hitting just 5 of 20 triples 2 nights ago in a 5 point Wolfpack win. And it’s not as if NC State is a lockdown defensive team from beyond the arc ranking 263rd nationally defending the 3 point line. Last night they trailed by 6 with 45 seconds remaining in the game and UVA went onto to miss FT’s down the stretch (6 of 11 for the game) and NCSU banked in a 3 at the buzzer to send the game to OT where they won. That was despite the Pack hitting 11% higher from the field compared to UVA and making 8 more FT’s they still had to go to OT to get the win. UNC was easily the best team team in the ACC this year and they are “rested” compared to NCSU playing just their 3rd game in this tourney. The Heels rank #1 in the ACC most defensive metrics (6th nationally in defensive efficiency) and should limit the Wolfpack offense that will have tired legs. UNC should also dominate the boards, for fatigue issues and because they are the #1 offensive & defensive rebounding team in the ACC which will give them extra opportunities vs NC State who ranks 13th in the ACC in defensive rebounding and now tired legs on top of that. The Heels should also win the FT battle with NC State fouling as much as any team in the ACC and UNC makes 75% of their freebies on the season. UNC won both games during the regular season by 9 & 13 points and that was under normal circumstances, not facing NC State playing their 5th game in 5 days. UNC is battling for a #1 seed in the tourney so they are still motivated and they should roll up a big win here.

#618 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* South Florida -1.5 or -2 over UAB, Saturday at 3 PM ET - We were on USF on Friday and they rolled to a huge win over East Carolina. The Bulls were in must win mode and while they move 1 step closer to the NCAA tourney, they really can’t lose this game and leave the decision in the hands of the committee on Sunday. They are still a bubble team despite their 24-6 record. They’ve been the best team in the AAC all season long and continue to get very little respect. The Bulls are the #1 three point shooting team in conference play hitting 38% of their triples. We felt they’d shoot well vs an ECU defense that doesn’t defend the arc well and they did hitting 45% (14 made 3’s). Same situation here as UAB’s defense ranks 262nd nationally (11th in the AAC) defending the 3 point line. In general the Blazers defense leaves a lot to be desired ranking 197th in efficiency. 216th in eFG% allowed, and they give up 75 PPG. They did hold Wichita State to 60 points yesterday but the Shockers were playing their 3rd game in 3 days and UAB had off since the weekend. On top of that, Wichita was not a good offensive team to begin with ranking 13th in the AAC in efficiency. On the other side, South Florida is the best defensive team in the AAC ranking #1 in pretty much every category including defensive efficiency, and eFG% allowed, 2 point FG% allowed, and 3 point FG% allowed. They were able to spread out their minutes yesterday as they led ECU by 30 at home point and 9 guys played 10+ minutes. USF had 2 losses in conference play this season and one of those was a down to the wire game @ UAB (Blazers won by 4) despite the fact UAB made 30 FT’s and just 9 for the Bulls. It was their only meeting this season giving USF even more motivation. They continue to be undervalued but just keeping winning and covering (20-7 ATS). We like USF to get another cover on Saturday.

#853/854 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 134 Points – Baylor vs Iowa State, Friday at 9:30 PM ET - This total is much too low according to our power ratings. We have this total set at 140 so as of this writing we’re getting 6 full points of value on the Over. These teams met once this season and that total was set at 142 and while they went Under that number, they still totaled 138 points in that game. The 2 teams combined to shoot just 42% in that game and we expect better shooting numbers tonight. Baylor is one of the top offensive teams in the nation averaging 81 PPG along with ranking 5th nationally in adjusted efficiency and 5th in 3 point percentage hitting 40% of their triples on the season. They are facing an ISU defense that is very good but they aren’t great defending the arc ranking 76th nationally. In their only meeting, the Bears hit 12 triples and we’d expect another solid effort from deep from this outstanding offense. The Bears also get to the FT line more than anyone in the Big 12 and ISU fouls a lot. On the other side, ISU averages 71 PPG on the season and while they aren’t as dynamic offensively as Baylor, they do rank in the top 70 nationally in efficiency. They’ll also be facing a Baylor defense that simply isn’t very good this year. They allow over 70 PPG and rank 12th in the Big 12 in defensive efficiency, eFG% allowed, and 2 point FG% allowed. These teams both played low scoring games yesterday which is keeping this total low. ISU faced Kansas State who is much worse offensively than Baylor (KSU 12th in offensive efficiency in the Big 12) and much better defensively than the Bears (KSU 4th in defensive efficiency) yet the total in that game was 135 which is higher than this number? ISU & KSU totaled 133 points in that game with the Cyclones scoring 76 points vs a really good defense despite making only 1 of 14 three point shots. Baylor beat Cincinnati 68-56 with the teams combining to barely shoot 40% and just 24% from deep. We really like the value with this low total and our play is Over.

ASA BET on 10* OVER 216.5 LA Clippers at New Orleans Pelicans, 8:10 PM ET - We are well aware of the current Under streak in the NBA and how the officials have changed how they call games, which has had a big impact on Totals. But there is no way this O/U number should be this low. These same two teams met just over a month ago and the number set on that game was 234.5. In other words, the oddsmakers are suggesting a 17-point swing to the Under in this game? In the most recent meeting these two teams played at a slower than normal pace and attempted just 116 field goals and the game finished with 223 total points. In the two other clashes this season they produced Totals of 206 (174 FGA’s) and 222 (180 FGA’s). L.A. is the 11th highest scoring team in the NBA at 117PPG, the Pelicans are 12th at 116.1. Both teams have strong Under records this season, but this number is simply set too low. Games involving the Clippers this season have averaged 229.7PPG. Games that have featured the Pelicans have averaged 227.3PPG. Even with the current Under streak in the NBA games are still averaging 229PPG since the All-Star break. In LA.’s last 21 games, only 3 have finished with less than 215 total points. Going back to Christmas, the Pelicans have played 35 games and 25 of those finished with more than 215 Total points. This is bad number and we will bet the Over!

#809/810 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 137 Points – Wisconsin vs Northwestern, Friday at 2:30 PM ET - This total is light by about 3 points according to our power ratings so we’ll grab the value on the Over. While both teams are slow paced, the offenses on each side are much better than the defenses. Both rank in the top 30 nationally in offensive efficiency and after their home finale vs Minnesota in which the Wildcats put up 90 points, head coach Chris Collins mentioned he’s been extremely happy with his offense this year. This year, we’ve been a terrific offense,” Collins said. “We’ve been really efficient and (have) shot the ball incredibly well.” The Cats are averaging 76 PPG in league playing ranking 4th in the Big 10. Wisconsin is average 75 PPG in conference play ranking 7th. Wisconsin & NW have had very solid defensive teams in the recent past but that really hasn’t been the case this season with both ranking outside the top 230 nationally in eFG% allowed. They are both allowing more than 72 PPG in conference play after they both allowed less than 67 PPG in league play last season. NW’s offense thrives on the 3 point shot with almost 35% of their points in conference play coming from deep (2nd most) and they are facing a Wisconsin defense that ranks dead last in the Big 10 allowing opponents to shoot almost 40% from deep. The Badgers found their offensive rhythm here yesterday putting up 89 points Maryland who came into that game #1 in defensive efficiency in Big 10 play. While we don’t expect UW to shoot as well as they did yesterday, they should still find plenty of success vs a NW defense that ranks 11th in the Big 10 in defensive efficiency. Northwestern’s conference games this year have averaged 149 total points and Wisconsin’s have averaged 147 total points. We like this game to get into the 140’s so Over is the play.

#828 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* South Florida -6.5 over East Carolina, Friday at 1 PM ET - Not only does AAC regular season champ USF have massive motivation here, it’s also a terrible match up for ECU on top of that. The Bulls have had a great season with a 23-6 SU record and 16-2 in AAC play, but they are not guaranteed a spot in the NCAA tourney. In fact, most bracketologists have them out of the Big Dance unless they win this game. That in and of itself isn’t necessarily a reason to make a wager on a team, but we love the match up for the Bulls as well. They are the best defensive team in the AAC ranking #1 in pretty much every category including defensive efficiency, and eFG% allowed, 2 point FG% allowed, and 3 point FG% allowed. The Pirates offensive numbers are not good ranking dead last in the conference in efficiency averaging only 1.00 PPP, dead last in 3 point FG%, and 13th in eFG%. You get where we are going here, ECU will have major problems on offense in this game. In yesterday’s 5 point win over Tulsa, the Pirates were able to shoot 50% (nearly 10% above their season average) vs a defense that ranked near the bottom of the AAC in efficiency and eFG% allowed. That won’t happen today. USF should have plenty of success on offense vs an East Carlina defense that has allowed an average of 81.5 PPG over their last 5. When these teams met for the only time this season @ ECU, the Bulls held the Pirated to 39% from the field and won by 11 points on the road. We see a similar outcome on Friday. South Florida by double digits.

#742 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Indiana +1 over Penn State, Thursday at 9 PM ET - PSU swept the season series but there is a reason this line opened PSU -2 and now it’s a pick-em most spots. PSU will have to shoot really well from deep to win this game. That’s exactly what they did vs Indiana in their 2 matchups with IU but that may be tough to duplicate tonight. In those 2 wins vs the Hoosiers the Nittany Lions shot over 40% from deep in both games. IU’s 3 point defense has been really solid in Big 10 play ranking 3rd in the conference allowing just 32% so we just don’t see PSU lighting it up from deep. The Hoosiers dominated inside in the 2 games and we expect that again with Penn State ranking dead last in the Big 10 in 2 point FG% defense. Indiana shot over 60% inside the arc in both meetings with PSU and they controlled the boards in those games gathering nearly 35% of their offensive missed shots. The Nits haven’t had any answer for IU’s 2 bigs, Ware & Reneau, who are playing great right now. Those 2 combined for 85 points and 30 boards in their 2 games vs Penn State. IU played those 2 losses without PG Johnson and since he’s been back the Hoosiers have rolled off 4 straight wins including topping both Wisconsin and Michigan State, 2 top 25 teams per KenPom. Take Indiana to win this one tonight.