Sports Picks & Predictions

This is a 10* GOW on Michigan.

With nearly 65% of the early public money on Washington, I'm going the other way here and laying the points and expecting Michigan to find a way to get the job done before the end of the night.

This is a classic matchup of offense vs. defense, and as the old saying goes: "Defense Wins Championships!"

This is the first time in the CFP era that two undefeated teams have met in the Final game.

The Wolverines, behind star RB Blake Corum, have finally made it to the big game and I'm expecting them to make the most of it.

I really respect Washington. I think Michael Penix Jr. is a phenomenal player. 

But Penix Jr. has yet to face a defense as nasty and opportunistic as this Wolverines' unit. 

The Wolverines also got some big-time play from QB JJ McCarthy in the 27-20 OT win over Alabama and I just don't see much difference between these two starting pivots.

The Huskies' defense bent, didn't break this year, but here in the "Big Game," that's simply NOT going to be good enough.

While the majority go one way, me and my growing list of satisfied clients are going the other. Go Blue!

The play is MICHIGAN.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOWL GOY on Texas.

Texas is 12-1 and Washington is 13-0. The Longhorns have played the tougher competition though and I'm expecting them to pull away down the stretch of this one for the comfortable win and cover once it's all said and done.

The Longhorns hammered Oklahoma State 49-21 in the Big 12 Championship Game. QB Quinn Ewers finished with 3,161 passing yards and a 21:6 TD:INT. Defensively Texas concedes just 17.5 PPG. 

Washington barely got by Oregon in the Pac 12 Championship game by a score of 34-31. QB Michael Penix Jr. finished with 4,218 passing yards and a 33:9 TD:INT. 

The Huskies have been vulnerable at times defensively, entering conceding 23.6 PPG. 

Look for Ewers to match Penix Jr and for the Longhorns superior defense to be the difference-maker.

Look for TEXAS to get some revenge here from last season.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOWL TOY on the OVER Iowa/Tennessee.

This is the Citrus Bowl and the second Bowl game of 2024, with Iowa and Tennessee squaring off this season.

Iowa finished 10-3 and Tennessee was 8-4. 

The Hawkeyes stumbled in the Big Ten Championship game, falling 26-0 to Michigan. Note though that Iowa has seen the total go OVER the number in eight of its last ten off a SU/ATS conference loss in which it was shutout.

After posting just 17 points in back-to-back losses, The Volunteers rebounded to win their finale 48-24 over Vanderbilt. Clearly, Tennessee's game-plan will be to keep the Hawkeyes on their heels and not allow them to dictate the tempo.

Iowa saw the total go UNDER the number in eight straight to close the year, but look for the long lay-off between games to be detrimental to this Hawkeyes defensive unit.

Tennessee averages 31.5 PPG and I predict Iowa having to play "catch up" from the very start.

Look for this total to fly OVER the number as the game comes down the stretch.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOWL GOM on Toledo.

In this evenly matched contest, I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can.

Toledo finished 11-1, while Wyoming was 8-4. 

Toldeo fell 23-14 to Miami Ohio in its final outing. DeQuan Finn was a standout though with 273 passing yards and a TD. Overall Toldeo averages 33.6 PPG, while allowing 20.6.

Wyoming is off the 42-6 win over Nevada in its final outing, with Andrew Peasley finishing with 165 passing yards. Overall the Cowboys average 26.1 PPG, while allowing 22.9.

Whoever gets the start here, we're expecting Toledo's superior defensive play to be the differnce here.

Grab the points, the play is indeed on the ROCKETS.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOWL TOM on the OVER Georgia/FSU.

These two teams are feeling left out. Who will now be playing, and who will decide to sit out of the Capital One Orange Bowl for these two teams?

Whoever does suit up, I feel that the overall situation points to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later.

Georgia finished 12-1, and FSU finished 13-0. The big reason that FSU was left out of the College Football Championship was the injury to starting QB Jordan Travis. 

Lawrence Toafili ran the ball ten times for 118 yards in the Seminoles 16-6 win over Louisville in the Conference Championship Game and QB Brock Glenn finished with 55 yards on and no INT's. 

FSU finished averaging 37 PPG and despite Travis injured, we think the Seminoles will be forced to keep pace here with Georgia.

The Bulldogs averaged 38.4 PPG led by QB Carson Beck and I just see this SEC side pushing the pace from start to finish. 

This total is low in my opinion, the play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOWL WINNER on Clemson.

Clemson will be missing five defensive starters, but the defense won't have to work too hard here facing Kentucky's offense that averages 28.6 PPG.

The Tigers were still one of the stingiest defenses in allowing just 20.2 PPG. Clemson though will Cade Klubnik under center, and he had 2,580 passing yards and an 19:8 TD:INT and I think he'll get the better of his counterpart Devin Leary, who finished 2,440 yards and a 23:10 TD:INT. 

The weak point of the Wildcats was on the defensive side where they allowed 25.5 PPG.

Clemson has something to prove here after a "down" year and I think Klubnik will deliver the goods.

Lay the points, the play is indeed on the Tigers!

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on NC State.

I've had a lot of success so far this Bowl season betting against teams with several key players that happen to be out for the conrtest for varying reasons, and that's the case here once again in going against K-State.

The Wolfpack have a few starters missing as well, but they do have their starting QB Brennan Armstrong under center, while the Wildcats will be without their starting QB Will Howard and most of their starting recieving corps.

K-State will also be without offensive coordinator Collin Klein, who took the same job at Texas A&M. 

NC STATE'S defense will be more than up for the task of slowing down this toothless Wildcats' offense and while clearly the outright win isn't out of the question, in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOWL WINNER on Virginia Tech.

I've had a lot of success so far this Bowl Season playing against teams that have had a lot of transfers or missing players, and so I'm keeping true to that pattern here.

With their head coach, starting quarterback, several offensive and defensive starters out for this game, I'm expecting the 11-2 Tulane Green Wave to get overwhelmed here.

Virginia Tech is 6-6 and coach Brent Pry will be coaching his first for bowl game for this team. The Hokies won two of their final three games, beating Boston College 48-22 and Virginia 55-17, with a 35-28 competitive loss to NC State.

QB Kyron Drones has nearly 2,000 yards passing and a great 15:3 TD:INT. The defense has been sharp as well in conceding only 24.3 PPG.

I don't see Kai Horton, who was 31 of 62 for 485 yards, three TD's and two picks, doing much of anything against this well-prepared Hokies' defensive unit. 

Lay the points, the play is VIRGINIA TECH.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* ROUT on Bowling Green.

I've had a lot of success so far in the Bowls this year playing against teams that have a lot of transfers or players out for whatever reason.

And that's going to be the case here, as Minnesota finished the year 5-7 and is even lucky to be here in the first place, combined with the fact that it's starting QB Athan Kaliakmanis has transferred already, meaning that Cole Kramer, who has played six total snaps this year, will get the call.

Bowling Green finished 7-5 SU and 8-4 ATS. It's 12.3 yardds per point is ranked 13th in the nation. QB Connor Bazelak has thrown just one INT in his last five games. 

The Green Falcons only concede 330.3 YPG as well, which ranks 25th.

While the outright win is possible, my official call is to grab as many points as you can with BOWLING GREEN.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on Northwestern.

So far I've had a lot of success playing against teams that have a lot of players out due to the transfer portal (or other reasons.)

And that's going to be the main basis behind this particular pick as well, as 8-4 Utah will be missing several key players in this one, giving the Wildcats the distinct advantage in my opinion.

Northwestern is led by senior QB Ben Bryant who finished with an 11:6 TD:INT. The offense averages 22.8 PPG, while the defense allows 24.2. 

Utes main QB Cam Rising tore his ACL and his back up Bryson Barnes will be in for this one. Barnes will enter the transfer portal after this contest. Utah finished averaging 24.5 PPG, while allowing 20.9. 

But as mentioned off the top, the Utes have plenty of other players opting out and leaving, including captain Cole Bishop (safety) and many other key players on both sides of the ball.

Northwestern really came together over the final part of the season and averaged 30 or more points over its final three. 

While I do think the WILDCATS can win this one outright, the official call will be to grab as many points as you can.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOWL WINNER on Troy.

Troy finished 11-2, while Duke was 7-5. This one sets up really well for the Trojans, who I expect will have "no mercy" on their undermanned opponent today.

This play is based 100% entirely on the fact that Duke has seven starters out for this one, including QB Riley Leonard and its top two RB's in Jordan Waters and Jaquez Moore. They're also missing five defensive starters.

This is essentially a "home game" for the Trojans as well, which clearly works in their favor as well. Troy has scored at least 30 points in four straight games and clearly have the superior QB under center in Gunnar Watson, who has a 27:5 TD:INT. 

The Blue Devils' weakness on defense is against the pass as well.

I'm predicting a blowout. Lay the points, the play is TROY.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOWL PLAY on Georgia Tech.

Both teams finished 6-6. Both teams finished strong down the stretch. Both teams have weak defenses, and strong offenses.

The difference though is that Georgia Tech played some really stiff competition down the stretch, and UCF was barely holding on by a thread to several weaker teams.

The Yellow Jackets are going to have success running the ball today as well. 

Finally, note that the Golden Knights are 0-5 ATS in their last five as a single-digit favorite and just 2-3 SU in those contest (and three of those five games finished within a FG.)

In an evenly matched contest that I could see going either way, I'm grabbing the points.

The play is GEORGIA TECH.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOWL WINNER on USF.

This is a great situational play. Both teams ended with 6-6 records, but since the regular season ended, the Orange have gone through some significant changes, while not much at all has changed for the Bulls.

Because of this fact, I'm going to grab the points, but will obviously not be shocked by the outright upset.

USF finished the regular season with a 48-14 win over Charlotte to punch eligibility. QB Byrum Brown finished with 3,078 passing yards and a 23:11 TD:INT.

The USF defense catches a break here facing the Orange, who fired their former coach Dino Babers and replaced him with Nunzio Campanile, who will turn to Braden Davis at QB. Garrett Shrader underwent shoulder surgery after winning against Wake Forest. Davis attempted one pass and rushed the ball twice this season.

Look for the Bulls' offense be just too much for this patchwork Orange offense to keep up to down the stretch.

Grab the points, the play is USF!

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* SIDE WINNER on UTSA.

The starting QB for Marshall is out, so that means that Cole Pennington will be a "game manager" in this one for the Herd. They do have 1,000 yard rusher Rasheed Ali though.

And the Herd features a strong group of WR, but UTSA is strong against the run, and I think Marshall will be just too one-dimensional and predictable on offense ultimately.

UTSA Frank Harris will play the final game of his College career here and UTSA is seeking its first bowl win in its last five tries.

Look for Harris to be a difference-maker in this one and lay the points with confidence.

The play is UTSA.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* BLOWOUT on WKU.

WKU finished 7-5 and ODU finished 6-6. 

WKU is led by Austin Reed who puts up 331.7 yards per game passing. Defensively they allow 338.3 YPG.

ODU will be without All-American linebacker Jason Henderson and over their last three games the Monarchs have averaged just 313 total yards per game led by Grant Wilson.

WKU comes in more balanced at the moment and while I do think an outright is possible, my official call is to grab as many points as you can with WESTERN KENTUCKY.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOWL WINNER on Fresno State.

New Mexico State finished 10-4, while Fresno State finished 8-4. 

The Aggies played the Liberty Flames in their last game and their starting QB Diego Pavia went 11 of 16 for 188 yards and three TD's, while also leading the rushing attack with 45 yards and a TD. 

Pavia actually left that game early with injury and Blaze Berlowitz went for 134 yards a TD and an INT.

The question mark surrounding Pavia though throws a monkey wrench into the Aggies bowl plans though ultimatley in my estimation.

Whether he plays or not, he won't be at 100% health.

Frenso State's Mikey Keene leads an offense that 29.9 PPG and I think he's the correct call here for sure.

While the outright is possible, let's grab the points with FRESNO STATE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF MONTH on Navy.

This year's annual battle mean's a little bit more, as each side enters at 5-6. The winner will become "eligible." In this evenly matched contest that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm going to grab the points.

These teams have five wins each over the last ten in the series, but this one will mean a lot to the Midshipmen after Army won 20-17 in OT last year as a 2.5-point dog. 

Tai Lavatai and Xavier Arline did not play in last week's blowout loss to SMU for Navy, but each is expected to be available for this one. 

Army last played back on November 18th, and I think the Black Knights come out flat here. In their 28-21 win over Coastal Carolina, they only attempted two passes.

Navy has been pretty stout against the run, allowing 121.91 YPG. 

With their two senior QB's available and playing with revenge from last season, I do indeed like the MIDSHIPMEN to cover in 2023.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BIG TEN GOM on Michigan.

With a spread and a total like this, what are the oddsmakers trying to tell us?

If you're wagering on this game, then you almost assuredly know the storylines for each team heading into this one, the cast of characters on each side, and their strengths and weaknesses.

And if you don't know, then just go quickly read an ESPN article on this game, and then come back to my succinct opinion on why I believe that the Wolverines are going to trash the Hawkeyes today.

With a spread like this, clearly, no one is giving Iowa a chance. However, early money has nearly 70% of the action on the underdog here. They also don't think this is going to be a very high-scoring game with an O/U like this.

So they don't think Iowa will put many, if ANY points on the board in this one.

The Hawkeyes are no joke. Their defense is fantastic. But I just don't see the Wolverines slipping up here. In fact, I'm expecting them to put on a show. 

JJ McCarthy has only thrown four INTs this season, and he didn't have any in last week's win over Ohio State. 

This Michigan team looks after the football and is just damn efficient in all phases.

Iowa doesn't stand a chance here, so lay the points with confidence.

The play is MICHIGAN.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BIG 12 GOM on Texas.

The Big 12 Championship game features two really good teams, but one's a lot better than the other. And that's why we have a really big spread here.

There are a lot of implications for each side here, but the biggest one is that if Texas wins this game, then it'll be on the short-list for a CFP spot.

If you're wagering on this game, you likely already know the cast of characters on each team and the strengths and weaknesses from each side.

Texas probably doesn't deserve a spot in the CFP, but I do think it can get the job done here. I just can't see the Cowboys keeping pace down the stretch. The Longhorns lost to OKST last year by a score of 41-34 as 6.5-point favorites, and that fact also leads me to believe that they'll keep the foot on the gas here from start to finish.

In my opinion, this will turn out to be a rout once it's all said and done.

Lay the points, the play is TEXAS.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* PAC 12 TOM on the OVER Cal/UCLA.

UCLA is 7-4. It beat Colorado 28-16, but then lost its next two games, before getting back on track in last wee's 38-20 upset win at USC. 

The Bruins though have seen the total go UNDER the number in five straight, but note that UCLA has in fact seen the total eclipse the posted number in seven of its last ten after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row.

And for 5-6 Cal, its now or never. Do or die. The Golden Bears have kept their bowl hopes alive the last two weeks by winning both games over WSU and last week at Standford by a score of 27-15. Note that while last week's total did go UNDER the number, Cal had in fact seen the total go OVER the number in five straight previous to that.

Look for these two teams to push the pace and expect this total to fly OVER the number sooner, rather than later.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BIG TEN TOW on the OVER Ohio State/Michigan.

Clearly it's a big game. Both teams enter at 11-0 and a trip to the Big Ten Championship Game, followed by a trip to the CFP is on the line here.

The last time these teams got together, Michigan won 45-23 as a nine-point dog on the road on November 26th of last season.

This is the lowest total between the teams in the last five years. Note that the OVER has in fact hit nine times in a row between these teams. 

These are two tough defenses, but these offenses still average over 30 points per game each.

Look for this one to fly OVER the number sooner, rather than later.

(additional analysis available)

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AAC TOY on the OVER UTSA/Tulane.

This is a big game, and I believe the intense focus that each side brings to this one will translate into offensive production on the field of play.

UTSA is 8-3 and on a seven-game win streak after a 49-21 home win over USF last week. Frank Harris had 411 yards and three TD passes, while also rushing for 112 yards and three more scores on the ground. Expect him to push the pace here as well. 

Tulane is 10-2 and an on a nine-game win streak. The Green Wave have seen the total go UNDER the number in three straight after last week's 24-8 win at FAU, but note that Tulane has in fact seen the total go OVER the number in seven of its last ten after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. Last week QB Michael Pratt had 252 yards passing and three TDs.

There will be opportunities for great field position as well with anticipated great defensive play from each side.

When you add it all up, this one will fly OVER the number sooner, rather than later in my opinion.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BIG 12 GOW on TCU.

I'm a "situational" handicapper at hear, and this one falls right into my wheelhouse. There are a lot of external things going on in this contest, and when you take into account all of the different factors, I do definitely feel we're getting great value here by grabbing the points.

First off, TCU is 5-6. This is it. The odds are against it here facing the 9-2 Sooners, but clearly the Horned Frogs won't be rolling over.

And for Oklahoma, it barely held on for the 31-24 win at BYU last week as a 24-point favorite. I had BYU in that one.

The Sooners though could easily be distracted here, as they'll need either Texas or Oklhoma State to falter this week to get a chance at the conference championship game. And they're both double-digit home favorites. It's not going to happen, and so I absolutely wonder where the energy levels for the home side will be at in this one, despite it being Seniors night.

Regardless, in a contest that I see being much more competitive than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe, I'm grabbing the points with TCU.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* SEC GOM on Mississippi State.

I'm banking on the 5-6 Bulldogs digging deep and, at the very least, keeping this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch.

Ole Miss is 9-2 and in second place in the SEC West Division. Ole Miss hammered Louisiana-Monroe 35-3 last week, after getting smashed 52-17 to Georgia the week before.

Ole Miss averages 36.5 PPG, while allowing 23.7.

While the Rebels are 6-4-1 ATS overall this year, they're 0-2-1 ATS over their last three.

Mississippi State is 1-6 in SEC games. The oddsare are against the Bulldogs here, but they won't be rolling over. 

After losing three straight they bounced back in fine form last week with a 41-20 win over Southern Miss. 

Overall Ole Miss has averaged 23.2 PPG, while allowing 27.5.

The Egg Bowl has been decided by ten points or less in five of the last six in the series, and in my opinion all signs point to this pattern continuing.

Grab the points, the play is MISSISSIPPI STATE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* MAC GOW on EMU.

The big storyline here is that EMU is 5-6 and can become bowl eligibile with one more victory. The Eagles kept their hopes alive with a 30-27 win at home over Akron last weekend, setting up this pivotal contest. 

The 3-8 Bulls can only play spoiler here, despite being the ones that are in fact favored in this game. They're off three straight SU/ATS losses and I expect EMU QB Austin Smith to take advantage of this weak home side defense.

While I do believe the outright win is possible, my official call will be to grab the points with EMU.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BIG TEN TOM on the OVER Nebraska/Wisconsin.

To say this is a "big" game would be an understatement. These teams re both 5-5 with two games remaining.

The winner will become "eligibile" and the loser will have one more chance.

Either way, while neither team has been involved in many high-scoring games to this point, I believe the conditions are now finally right for a bit of an offensive battle.

Nebraska is off the 13-10 home loss to Maryland, while Wisconsin fell 24-10 to Northwestern. 

The Badgers have seen the total go UNDER in three straight, but note that Wisconsin has seen the total go OVER the number in three of its last four after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. 

Wisconsin has to be liking its chances here as well as it's won nine straight in this series.

That includes a 15-14 road win last year.

But now the overall situation, combined with the numbers/trends finally point to these teams reaching the mid-20's with their points.

This number is low, the play is the OVER.

(more analysis available)

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BIG 12 GOM on BYU.

BYU is obviously a huge dog here and I'm not predicting that it'll somehow be able to pull off the outright upset, but I do think the 5-5 Cougars will put up a much bigger fight than what this spread is suggesting. 

Oklahoma is 8-2 this year after beating WVU 59-20 last weekend, but it's just 2-2 SU on the road. 

BYU is 5-5, but 4-1 SU at home.

Oklahoma can see the finish line and it won't be taking anything for granted here, but I just don't see Dillon Gabriel and the Sooners keeping the foot on the gas in the second half.

So far Oklahoma is averaging 41.8 PPG, while allowing 19.8.

BYU is averaging 21.9 PPG, while allowing 28.7. 

This is obviously a very contrarian play. The numbers are lop-sided for these teams, as is the public money on one of these two sides.

While most everyone goes one way, I'm going the other and grabbing the points.

The play is BYU.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on CMU.

At 5-5, CMU isn't getting much of a chance here by the oddsmakers to win this game straight up, but I say the conditions are right for a tighter battle than what this spread is suggesting. 

CMU is 5-5. It has two more games to try and punch a possible bowl berth. However, the odds are against the Chips as they'll be huge underdogs in each game, including this one and their final one of the regular season vs. Toledo.

Ohio is 7-3. It's off a 20-10 win over Buffalo. It has a game at the lowly Zips after this.

The bottom line here is that the more motivated side is going to fight tooth and nail and I believe that'll be more than enough to get the job done with the large amount of points.

No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points, the play is CENTRAL MICHIGAN.

(more analysis available.)

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* MAC ATTACK on Northern Illinois.

Both teams are 4-6 with two games to go to try and punch eligibility. WMU is off a 38-28 home win over SMU, but I think it'll struggle here now on the road after two straight victories. Last week QB Hayden Wolff went 25 of 36 for 333 yards, three TD's and an INT.

NIU comes in as the more desperate team here though after two straight losses, most recently it was a 20-17 home setback to Ball State. Senior QB Ricky Lombardi was 15 of 26 for 141 yards, while also rushing for 14 yards and a TD as well.

WMU though is conceding 28.8 PPG over its last five games, while over that same span NIU has allowed just 19.4.

Lay the points, the play is NORTHERN ILLINOIS.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on Marshall.

6-3 Georgia Southern had a predictable letdown last Saturday, one week after becoming eligible, falling 45-24 at Texas State as a 2.5-point underdog. 

Now it faces 4-5 Marshall, which has lost five straight SU, and six straight ATS. 

The Thundering Herd are running out of chances to become eligible, but now here finally is an opponent and a venue in which it has the upper hand. 

Marshall's pass defense is above average and I say that the more "desperate" team rallies here in this "do or die" situation.

Grab the points, the play is MARSHALL.

(more analysis available)

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* ACC GOW on Virginia Tech.

Virginia Tech is running out of time to become eligible. Losing though breeds motivation, while at times, winning can lead to complacency.

The Hokies had won two straight convincingly before last week's 34-3 meltdown at Louisville. 

But with only three games remaining, it's clearly now or never for the visiting side.

BC won its fifth straight and moved to 6-3 in last week 17-10 upset win at Syracuse. Can anyone say "letdown" spot here?

Note as well that the Eagles are in fact just 3-7 ATS in their last ten after five or more SU victories in a row. Does that stat matter for this year's team? It certainly doesn't hurt my argument!

Either way, as primarily a "situational" handicapper, this one falls right into my "wheel-house." 

While clearly the outright is possible, the official call is to grab as many points as you can with VIRGINIA TECH.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BLOOD-BATH on North Texas.

At this time of year, taking a "situational" approach to handicapping College Football is always a greart way to make your selections, and that's the case for me here with this one.

Clearly, SMU is the better team. It's 7-2, including 4-0 at home. UNT is just 3-6, and only 1-3 on the road.

The Mean Green though have been competitive away from friendly confines, going a money-making 3-1 ATS for bettors in a vistors role so far. SMU is 3-1 ATS at home, but UNT is 3-6 with just three games remaining.

The odds are against the Mean Green to become eligible obviously, but they won't be rolling over here, it's "do or die" etc.

SMU gets caught "peeking ahead" to it game at Memphis next week in my opinion.

Grab the points, the play is indeed on NORTH TEXAS.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* SUN BELT TOM on the OVER USM/UL Lafayette.

As primarily a situational handicapper, this one falls right into my wheelhouse. 

Southern Miss is only 2-7, but it still can play "spoiler" here by trying to keep 5-4 UL Lafayette out of Bowl contention for at least one more week. 

That said, clearly the Cajuns won't be leaving anything to chance after last week's 37-17 setback at Arkansas State as a 6.5-point favorite (note though, UL Lafayette has in fact seen the total go OVER the number in eight of its last 11 off an upset ATS/SU conference road loss as a favorite.) 

This number is low, the play is the OVER.

(more analysis available.)

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* MAC ATTACK on Eastern Michigan.

I'm primarily a situational capper. This one sets up great situationally. I'm not calling for an outright upset or anything, but I do definitely think that the 8-1 Rockets will take the foot off the gas in the second half of this one.

EMU is 4-5. It's also 0-4 SU away from friendly confines, but bettors take notice, as the Eagles are 3-1 ATS.

Toledo is 5-0 SU at home, but it's already been overvalued this season, as it's just 2-3 ATS in front of the home town faithful.

EMU needs to win two more games to become eligible and it has three games left in which to try and pull that off. The odds are against the visiting side today to try and pull off the outright upset, but it certainly won't be rolling over. 

As stated off the top, I think this is a great situational play.

Grab the points, the play is EASTERN MICHIGAN.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* UNDERDOG OF THE MONTH on Buffalo.

Here's a great situational play. Ohio is 6-3 and has an opportunity to move up in the race for the conference standings, but Buffalo only has three more chances to become eligible. 

It's do or die from here on out. Will that necessarily translate into a straight up win here though? Difficult to say, but there's no question that the Bulls will be risking life and limb to try and pull off the upset.

One week after becoming eligible, the Bobcats fell 30-16 at home to Miami Ohio. 

It's the Bulls though who have been the better bet for bettors this year, 5-4 ATS currently, compared to the Bobcats 4-5 ATS mark. 

While the majority of the public goes "one way" with this one, we're going to "go the other." 

The play is BUFFALO.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* SEC TOM on the UNDER LSU/Alabama.

If you've followed me for any length of time, then you know that I'm a situational handicapper. I'm also contrarian. 

I base my picks on many different things. I don't find that I'm very good at individual player assessment, but rather I'm better at looking at a team as a "whole." If a player is absent, then that absence is reflected in the line. 

And so I love betting the regular season, and I love betting "situations." And I love betting against lop-sided trends and numbers, and to say that each of these teams to this point has played to a lot of high-scoring games this season would be an understatement of epic proportions.

6-2 LSU has so far seen the total go OVER the number in all eight games, while Alabama has seen the total eclipse the posted number in six of eight games. 

The last time these teams met?! The total went OVER the number of course in LSU's 32-31 OT win at home last November as a 13.5-point underdog.

Each side is already eligible, but there are big conference implications on the line here.

Either way, the overall situation points to a much more defensive affair this time around in my opinion.

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

(more analysis available.)

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* ACC GOM on Pittsburgh.

I used Pittsburgh as my ACC GOY vs. Louisville last month and cashed and now I think Pitt offers great value in this spot here in November as well.

Am I calling for the outright victory? 

Of course not.

But at 8-0 and off a 41-16 win at Wake Forest, and with a home game vs. Miami up next, I definitely believe there's plenty of room for the visiting side to take the foot off the gas in the second half in this one, allowing the 2-6 home side more than enough room to comforably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. 

With four games remaining, the Panthers' odds of becoming "eligible" are virtually zero, but off the humbling 58-7 setback at Notre Dame last week, I expect a uch better effort here at home, where Pitt is 2-2 this season.

No outright, but closer than expected.

Grab the points, the play is PITTSBURGH.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* SUN-BELT GOM on South Alabama.

Here's a great situational play on many levels for USA to, at the very least, comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch with the healthy amount of points that it's been afforded. 

USA is 4-4, and Troy is now "eligible" at 6-2 after last week's 31-13 win at Texas State. Can anyone say "letdown" spot?!

4-4 South Alabama though is running out of chances, and this is a game that it has a legitimate shot at winning outright. It also plays with a small amount of "revenge here after falling 10-6 to the Trojans as a 3-point favorite last year.

In what I anticipate will be a game decided in the final moments, I'm grabbing the points.

The play is USA.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* UNDERDOG GOY on Georgia Tech.

North Carolina is 6-1, but last week it fell 31-27 at home to UVA as a 24-point favorite.

It was a major letdown for the Tar Heels immediatley after becoming bowl eligible and starting the season 6-0. 

And now I think that UNC is primed for another letdown here vs. Georgia Tech, as I believe it'll be caught looking ahead to its game vs. Duke up next.

Te Yellow Jackets are 3-4 and will be looking to pull off the outright upset just like they did in last year's outright 21-17 victory over the Tar Heels as 22-point underdogs. 

GT doesn't have too many winnable games left on the schedule. Not that the oddsmakers are giving it much of a chance like this.

As primarily a situational handicapper, this one falls right into my wheelhouse.

I'm not calling for an outright upset, but everything points to a much tighter battle than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe in my opinion.

Grab the points, the play is GEORGIA TECH.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* SUNBELT GOW on Texas State.

This is a great "situational" play. Both teams enter at 5-2, making this a very important game, as the victor will then become bowl eligible with the win. 

Troy is 2-1 on the road, most recently coming off a 19-0 win at Army two weeks ago, while Texas State also played two weeks ago in a 21-20 win over Louisiana Monroe. 

Texas State lost this game 17-14 last year, but easily covered the spread with the 16.5-points it was afforded in that one.

I'm absolutely expecting a similar hard-fought game here as well.

Troy QB Gunnar Watson struggled in his team's last win, going 10 of 21 for 227 yards and a TD. 

Bobcats' QB TJ Finley was 24 of 46 for 222 yards and two TD's in his team's latest victory.

I think Troy's defensive numbers are skewed and the Trojans' defense is poised to finally be tested here. 

While I feel the outright is possible, the official call is to grab as many points as you can with TEXAS STATE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BIG TEN TOW on the OVER Maryland/NW.

Maryland is 5-2. It failed to punch its sixth win of the year in last week's 27-24 loss to Illinois as a 13-point favorite, buit note that the Terps have in fact seen the total go OVER the number in four of their last five after a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite in their previous outing.

Northwestern has been trading good games with bad. Last week's 17-9 loss at Nebraska, despite being a ten-point dog, was pretty terrible. 

The Terps though come in fresh out of their bye and I'm fully expecting them to push the pace of this one from the outset as they look to now finally become "eligible."

The last time these teams played against each other Maryland managed the 31-24 victory, and all signs point to a similar final combined score here as well.

This number is low, the play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* ACC GOW on Syracuse.

Outright win? Very possible! Is this a contrarian play?! It sure is! 

But I love the way this one sets up for the Orange on Thursday and while the upset victory isn't out of the question, my official call will be to grab as many points as you can.

Syracuse is 4-3, but it's now lost three straight SU/ATS in a row after a 41-3 loss at FSU as a 19-point dog last time out. Note though that the Orange are 8-4 ATS in their last 12 after three or more SU/ATS losses in a row. 

The Orange won this game 41-36 as 3.5-point dogs back in 2021. 

Virginia tech is 3-4. It's coming off a 30-13 win at home over Wake Forest. 

Both teams come out of their bye weeks.

Despite the lop-sided loss last time out, the Orange still only allow 22.1 PPG. The Hokies are conceding 24.7. 

Kyron Drones is a true dual-threat QB for Virginia Tech, but now he faces one of the better defenses in the conference.

In a contest that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points.

The play is SYRACUSE.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* SUPER BLOWOUT on FIU.

While I'm not calling for the outright victory, I do think we're going to see a highly-competitive affair here and because of that, I'll be recommending to grab as many points as you can in this one.

If you've followed me for any length of time, then you know that I'm a "situational" handicapper at heart, and this one sets up well for the 4-4 Florida International Panthers in my opinion. 

Jacksonville State just became bowl eligible last time out vs. WKU in a 20-17 outright win as a 7.5-point dog, and I'm predicting a now predictable mental letdown here.

FIU is off a hard-fought 33-27 OT win at Sam Houston State as a 5-point dog and has a ton of momentum and confidence here.

These teams haven't played since 2020, but Jacksonville State pulled off the upset as a ten-point dog. 

That was a long time ago, but I think that FIU now has a legitimtate chance at doing the same here to the visiting side.

That said, in the end my official call will be to grab as many points as you can.

The play is FIU.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* CONFERENCE-USA GOW on Louisana Tech.

New Mexico State 5-3 overall, but just 2-2 on the road.

Louisiana Tech is 3-5, and just 2-2 at home.

With four games remaining, time is running out for the Bulldogs to become "bowl eligible" this season, and here's a home game that they're actually favored to win.

This has become the most important game of the season for Louisiana Tech, in fact I'd argue it's "do or die."

Conversely, after three straight SU/ATS victories in a row, the Aggies are now primed for a letdown here finally in my estimation (and note that New Mexico State is just 3-6 ATS in its last nine after three or more SU/ATS victories in a row.) 

With four games remaining, the Aggies are going to get caught looking ahead here and a tiny bit complacent, and like I just outlined, the Bulldogs will be risking life and limb here to ensure a victory.

I say the more motivated home side pulls away down the stretch for the comfortable win and cover.

Lay the points, the play is LOUISIANA TECH.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BIG TEN TOY on the UNDER MI/MSU.

As primarily a situational capper, this one ticks all the boxes for me to be a much more defensive battle than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. The bottom line here is that I just don't see MSU scoring a lot here. 

That said, I also can't lay this large spread on the public road favorite either. 

Situationally though as I mentioned, it does set up well to be a much lower-scoring game than what this O/U line is suggesting. 

Michigan is 7-0 SU and it has a bye week after this. The only game it really has to worry about is Ohio State in the final week, but that games at home. It's hard to imagine the Wolverines looking past the Spartans, but I do think they'll take the foot off the gas and rest starters in the second half.

Again, I have no faith that the Spartans will actually be able to score here, even in garbage time.

Michigan has seen the total go OVER in three straight, but note that the Wolverines have in fact seen the total go UNDER in eight of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight OVERs in a row.

However you cut it, I say this is a few too many points now finally this week.

Michigan State is off four straight losses, and the last two outings have flown OVER the number.

But now here at home facing Michigan, I say everything points to this total staying UNDER the number once it's all said and done.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* AAC SUPER TOTAL on the OVER Charlotte/ECU.

Both of these teams have been struggling to put points on the board of late, but I'm expecting those trends to end this weekend.

Both teams are 1-5. There's nothing to play for here now but pride essentially. I just don't see a lot of effort going into defense this weekend. These beleaguered offenses can finally take center stage. 

Charlotte has seen the total go UNDER in three straight after a 14-0 loss to Navy last time out. Note though that the 49ers have seen the total go OVER the number in three of their last four after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row.

ECU is off a 31-10 home loss to SMU and it's also now seen the total go UNDER in three straight, which is also significant to note take note of here, as the Pirates have in fact seen the total go OVER the number in five or their last seven after playign to three or mores straight UNDERS in a row.

Both team's numbers on both sides of the ball have been atrocious, but this one definitely sets up to be more of an offensive affair than a grind-it-out defensive one in my opinion.

This number is low, the play is the OVER.

(more analysis available.)

Good luck, NP

This is 10* BIG 12 GOY on UCF.

Outright victory?! I'm absolutely NOT predicting that of course. But if you've followed me for any length of time, then you know I am primarily a "situational" and contrarian handicapper, and this one definitely falls right into my "wheel-house." 

The majority of the early public money is definitely on 6-0 SU/ATS Oklahoma here. But I think the Sooners will in fact get caught looking past UCF here to its much more difficult upcoming schedule at KU and OKST respectively after this. I don't know if this a letdown spot, but overall it looks suspiciously like a "trap" to me for the home side.

No such luxury obviously for 3-3 UCF, which enters off three straight SU/ATS losses in a row, most recently a 51-22 loss at the Jayhawks. But that was two weeks ago and now UCF comes in fresh and prepared for this contest as well (and note that the Knights are 4-1 ATS in their last five after three or more SU/ATS losses in a row.) 

Bye weeks can work one of two ways. Either they come at a great time for a team that needs a break, or they come at a horrible time and disrupt chemistry. Rest leads to rust here for OKL as well after it comes out of its bye week also (after a thrilling 34-30 outright win over Texas as a 4-point dog.) 

UCF has scored 31 points in four of six games this year and I expect a very competitive battle until the final moments.

No outright, but closer than what this spread is suggesting; grab the points, the play is UCF.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* ACC TOW on the OVER SMU/Temple.

In my opinion, all signs point to this particular ACC matchup on Friday night eclipsing the posted number sooner, rather than later. 

SMU is 4-2 and looking to move one game closer to eligiblity this week. The Mustangs won't be sitting back and waiting for Temple to make the first mistake though vs. the 2-5 Owls, instead I believe the visiting side will keep the foot on the gas from start to finish.

SMU is off a 31-10 destruction of ECU, and while it has now seen the total go UNDER the number in three straight, note that the Mustangs have in fact seen the total go OVER in three of their last four after playing to three or more straight unders in a row.

Temple enters off four straight losses. It's been a combination of inconsistent offense along with terrible defense. 

When these teams played last year, SMU won by a score of 47-23 and I'm predicting a similar high-scoring outcome this season as well.

SMU QB Preston Stone had 276 passing yards and three TD's last week and there's no reason not to think that he won't carry that momentum over here.

Temple allowed 527 yards of offense last week and it'll be playing catchup here from the get go once again.

As I mentioned off the top, all signs point to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* SUN BELT GAME OF YEAR on Marshall.

The 4-2 Herd won't be rolling over here for the 6-0 Dukes. In a contest that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points.

The Dukes come in a tiny bit complacent here in my estimation after the great start and 28-point home win over Georgia Southern last time out. 

The Herd though will absolutely NOT be taking anything for granted here after B2B losses, including a 17-point setback to Georgia State in their latest action. 

This home game comes at an opportune time for Marshall. If it were on the road in this scenario, I would not be back in the Herd, but I can't understate how important I feel the home-field faithful will play in this contest.

Clearly the outright is possible, but the official call is to grab as many points as you can with MARSHALL.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* CONFERENCE-USA TOW on the OVER New Mexico State/UTEP.

The Aggies are 4-3 and come in with 2-1 record in league play. They're off two striaght wins, inlcluding a 27-13 victory over Sam Houston State. The offense looked OK, but the fact that the defense allowed 13 points to the Bearkats is what I think is the major concern obviously (they're 0-6.)

UTEP is just 2-5, but it's off a much-needed 27-14 road win over FIU on Wednesday, with QB Cade McConnel going 11 of 17 for 26 yards and two TD's. 

Overall the Aggies average 30 PPG, while allowing 26, while the Miners average 17.7, while allowing 26.1. 

UTEP has nothing to lose here, except another game. NMSU is just 1-2 on the road, so the Miners have a great opportunity here to pull off the mior upset at home and give themselves a slim hope still at a bowl berth.

Two highly motivated teams collide here in Conference USA action on Wednesday night and everything points to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later in my opinion.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* CONFERENCE-USA GOW on MTSU.

The Blue Raiders are just 2-5, but they won't be going down without a fight this week. MTSU had a difficult early schedule and I think i'll give Liberty everything it can handle on Tuesday night.

Liberty is the cream of the crop of the conference, 6-0, including 4-0 in league play. MTSU on the other hand is 0-3 on the road.

The contrarian in me absolutely loves MTSU here, with the majority of the public money quick to back the Flames and these amazing numbers. And they are great, but I think this spread is just now too large, as every "Joe public" bettor is quick to bet the favorite in this one, not taking into account MTSU's early tough schedule whatsoever, only looking at the wins and losses.

The Blue Raiders also come off their second win and cover of the seaosn in a 31-23 victory over Louisiana Tech. QB Nicholas Vattiato had 248 yards on 23 of 29 passing, two TD's and no INT's.

Liberty has been fantastic, but with a game at WKU next weekend, the team right below them in the standings, not only does this set up as a letdown spot, but also a lookahead spot. Add those two factors together and you get "trap game" around these parts!

Either way, I say that Vattiato keeps his team within striking distance down the stretch.

No outright, but closer than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.

Grab the points, the play is MTSU.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on the UNDER Boise State/CSU.

Boise State is 3-3 and Colorado State is 2-3. So far each has played to several higher-scoring games to open the season, but all signs point to a much more defensive affair finally here in Week 7 in this particular matchup in my opinion. 

Boise State has seen the total go OVER the number in five of six games this season, including in four straight, while CSU has seen the total go OVER in four of its last five, including in its 44-34 loss to Utah State last week.

That's a lot of collective OVERs played to by each side, but that fact, in my opinion, has now pushed this particular total a few points higher than it normally would/should be.

Boise State has faced some stiff competition, including a 56-19 season-opening loss to Washington. The Broncos numbers are somewhat skewed, but they looked good in last week's 35-27 win over SJSU, with QB Maddux Madsen going for 155 yards and a TD. 

Colorado State suffered two beatdown losses out of the gate as well, falling 50-24 to WSU, then 43-35 to Colorado in OT. Last week they had a 17-3 lead over Utah State, before then falling apart in the 44-24 loss. 

CSU won't be rolling over here, and it can't afford to get into a shoot-out either. I see a much more defensive affair here this week than what the oddsmakers are tryihng to lead us to believe.

The play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* ACC GAME OF THE YEAR on Pittsburgh.

No outright here, but I think that Pittsburgh will be risking life and limb to try and do just that, and while I expect that effort to ultimatley come up short here vs. the 6-0 Louisville Cardinals, I do think it'll be more than enough to comfortably cover with what I feel is a very healthy spread.

Louisville is 6-0 cruising right now, especially with a bye game next week, followed by a home game vs. Duke at the end of the month. Off the 33-20 home win over Notre Dame as a six-point underdog, not only does this set up as a natural "letdown" spot in my opinion, but also a "look ahead."

No such luxury obviously for the 1-4 Panthers. With six games remaining, Pittsburgh has to try to find a way to pull off some upsets if it has any hopes of making a bowl game.

I base my picks on many different things, but this particular one is a fantastic "situational" one.

No outright, but much closer than expected. Grab the points, the play is the PANTHERS!

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* SEC TOY on the UNDER Georgia/Vanderbilt.

Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games to open the season, but I'm finally expecting a more defensive affair here.

Vanderbilt is 2-5 SU, but 0-7 ATS. It's seen the O/U go 6-0-1 this year. 

Georgia is 6-0 SU and it's seen the total go OVER in three straight after last week's 51-13 win over Kentucky (note though that the Bulldogs have seen the total go UNDER the number in three of their last four after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row.) 

Georgia QB Carson Beck had 389 yards and four TD's in the win over Kentucky last week. The defense though was likely even more impressive in holding the Wildcats to just 13 points. I can't see Vanderbilt even scoring ten in this game

In fact, when these teams played last year, Georgia won by a score of 55-0. I foresee a slightly smaller combined score this time around though. Last week the Commodores fell 38-14 to Florida, and I expect a similar final combined score in this one as well. QB Ken Seals remains a bright spot for Vandy, but his line is going to be decimated today, he's going to be running for his life from start to finish. Last week the Commodores were just 1-of-10 on third-down tries.

When you add it all up, this total is definitely high. The play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* MW TOM on the UNDER Fresno State/Utah State.

The Fresno State Bulldogs are no slouches on defense. They're 5-1 overall and they own the 25th-ranked scoring defense, which will make 3-3 Utah State careful here. 

So far the average point total in Fresno State games this year has only been 49.8 PPG.

Utah State has played to five straight OVERS, but note that the Aggies have seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of their last 11 after playing to five or more straight OVERs in a row. 

I see this game being decided by field position and in the trenches, and because of that I'm on the UNDER.

(more analysis available.)

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AAC TOM on the OVER SMU/ECU.

I'm expecting a shootout here between two hungry conference rivals on Thursday night.

SMU is 3-2 and ECU is 1-4. 

SMU's two losses were both road games vs. tough teams. The Mustangs will be looking to keep the foot on the gas here though as they look to improve their bowl chances. SMU hasn't played since September 30th vs. Charlotte, going on to win 34-16, led by QB Preston Stone with 135 yards passing and two TD's. But Jaylan Knight stole the show offensively with 150 yards rushing and two rushing TDs as well. 

ECU has faced some stiff competition, falling to Michigan, Marshall and Appalachian State. But then they also fell to Rice 24-17 last week, giving up points in every quarter. 

I just see this being a completely wide-open offensive affair here. Both teams have been playing to several lower-scoring games of late, but the overall situation, in my opinion, finally points to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later.

(More analysis available.)

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* CONF-USA TOW on the UNDER LT/MTSU.

Louisiana Tech is 3-4, while MTSU is just 1-5. 

Louisiana Tech is 2-1 in league play. Last week though the Bulldogs fell 35-28 to WKU in a high-scoring affair. Their two conference wins were a 22-17 victory over FIU and a 24-10 win over UTEP. 

The Bulldogs are led by Jack Turner, who has 849 passing yards and a poor 4:4 TD:INT. The defense is conceding 28 PPG. 

MTSU will be desperate to stop the slide here. It's coming off a disappointing 45-30 loss to Jacksonville State last weekend, as the Blue Raiders had the lead going into the half.

Nicholas Vattiato has 1,576 passing yards and a 9:6 TD:INT. Overall the defense concedes a whopping 37.2 PPG.

Both teams have played to several higher-scoring games against each other in the past, and recently as well, but the overall situation here finally points to more of a defensive affair in my opinion.

MTSU has been trading Overs with Unders since the start of the season, and after its blowout loss here at home last week, I'm expecting this pattern to continue here on Tuesday.

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* PAC 12 GOM on Cal.

Oregon State is 4-1 and Cal is 3-2, but this is one that favors the home side in my opinion. 

The Beavers are led by QB DJ Uiagalelei, who has 1,032 passing yards and an 8:4 TD:INT. The ground game has been the strength though, averaging 206.8 YPG. The defense concedes 15.6 PPG so far.

Cal is looking for its third home win of the year. QB Sam Jackson V has 556 passing yards and a 5:2 TD:INT. The ground game though is also the strength of the Golden Bears offense, averaging 212.2 yards per game. 

It certainly doesn't get any "easier" for the Golden Bears moving forward, with a game at Utah after this, followed by a home game vs. USC, and then a game Oregon. The Bears need three more wins to become eligible, and this is one of the few games left on the schedule where they have an opportunity to pull off a legitimate outright victory.

But I'm not suggesting that will happen. What I am trying to lay out here is the fact that Cal will definitely be giving a full four-quarter effort here, and I say that the ample evidence listed above firmly points to Oregon taking the foot off the gas in the second half and leaving the backdoor open just enough for the hungry home side to sneak in through down the stretch.

Grab the points, the play is CAL.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* SEC GOY on Georgia.

Both of these SEC teams are 5-0 SU, but Kentucky is 4-1 ATS, while Georgia is just 1-4 ATS.

Clearly the Wildcats' competition to this point has to be called into question.

Georgia hasn't had the stiffest competition either, but while the Bulldogs didn't cover last weekend, they definitely won an important one at Auburn by a score of 27-20 (-14 point fav.) 

Now here back at home, here's a contest that I see the home side keeping the foot on the gas from start to finish. 

Last week Kentucky got a career-day out of RB Ray Davis, who carried 26 times for a whopping 280 yards and three TD's. Suffice it to say, I'm not expecting lightning to "strike twice" here this weekend. 

Last week Georgia held on, as QB Carson Beck went 23 of 33 for 313 yards with a TD.

The difference here though for the visiting side is that for the first time all year it's going to be facing a really good defense. 

Georgia needs a break out game, and this is going to be it.

Lay the points, the play is indeed on GEORGIA.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* SUNBELT TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER Texas State/UL Lafayette.

Texas State is averages 41.7 points per game while Louisiana is averages 38.7.

Neither has been fantastic defenisvely either, as Texas State allows an average of 27.2 points per game and Louisiana 27.5.

Texas State QB TJ Finley will be facing a Louisana defense that has 18 sacks already and four INT's. 

Louisana QB Ben Woolridge is more of a game manager, and the last thing that the Cajuns can afford to do here at home is turn this into a "track meet" with the Bobcats and expect to hang down the stretch.  Woolridge wil face an underrated defense that has 15 sacks and three INT's. 

While these teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games to open the season, I suspect this Week 6 battle to finally stay well UNDER the number once it's all said and done.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE TOM on the UNDER BC/Army.

Army is 2-2 SU, while BC is 2-3. The Black Knights are 1-0 at home, while the Eagles are 0-1 on the road.

Army will be looking to chew up the clock and control the ball while on offense. Thomas Castellanos helped rally to beat Virginia last week for the Eagles, but this is just a bad matchup for the visiting side. 

Army is a favorite here for a reason, and it's not going to be because it gets into a "shootout" here with the visiting side.

All five games of BC's have eclipsed the posted number so far this year, but that fact has only helped in driving this particular total a few points higher than it normally would/should be as well.

I'm expecting a much more defensive affair than what this O/U line is suggesting. 

The play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BIG 12 GOM on Oklahoma State.

The 3-1 K-State Wildcats are at Oklahoma State to take on the 2-2 Cowboys, and in my opinion, this is one that favors the home side.

K-State is 3-0 SU/ATS at home, but 0-1 SU/ATS on the road, falling 30-27 at Missouri as a 3-point favorite.

I think the Wildcats will stumble here in this difficult road venue as well.

Oklahoma State has been inconsistent over its first four games, but here's a golden opporunity to get back on track. Outright win? I'm not going to call that or anything here, but I do definitely expect the Cowboys to put up a much bigger fight than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. 

K-State is led by QB Will Howard, who has 1,072 yards passing and an 8:4 TD:INT. Overall the Wildcats allow 18.5 PPG.

The Cowboys have won seven of their last nine at home. QB Alan Bowman has 513 yards passing, and a 2:3 TD:INT. THe ground game averages 121.8 YPG. The defense concedes 23.8 PPG.

Despite that though, there's no way that K-State should be double-digit chalk favorite in this conference contest. I say the Wildcats do secure the outright victory, but it certainly won't be a cake walk.

Grab the points, the play is Oklahoma State.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* CONFERENCE USA TOM on the OVER WKU/LT.

The LA Tech Bulldogs are 3-3 and the WKU Hilltoppers are 3-2. Everything points to a wide-open offensive affair in my opinion between these two hungry sides.

WKU is off a 31-10 win over MTSU and I expect it to build off that offensive performance.

Louisiana Tech is off a 24-10 win over UTEP, and I think the Bulldogs also carry over that momentum here offensively.

Last week WKU QB Austin Reed had 297 passing yards and two TD's, while LA Tech QB Jack Turner had 152 yards passing and a TD. 

In what I predict will be a faster-paced affair between these two conference rivals, all signs point to this total easily eclipsing the posted number as the game comes down the stretch.

The play is the OVER.

(more analysis available)

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* CONFERENCE USA GOY on MTSU.

Jacksonville State is 4-1 SU and 3-1-1 ATS, while MTSU is 1-4 SU and 1-4 ATS. Despite their records, the home side is the favorite here, but not favored by nearly enough in my estimation.

The Blue Raiders are running out of time to make a serious run at a bowl bid, so it's essentially do or die this weekend here at home. Put up or shut up etc. 

Jacksonville State is coming off a thrilling 35-28 OT win at now 0-4 Sam Houston State is a 7-point favorite, and I predict a predictable letdown in this position. Logan Smothers has been decent iwth 474 yards passing, five TD's and zero INT's.

MTSU has won four of its last six home games. QB Nicholas Vattiato has 1,168 yards passing and a 7:4 TD:INT.

MTSU has played the more difficult schedule to this point. The oddsmakers are trying to tell us something here (opponents have been Alabama, Missouri, Colorado State and Western Kentucky.) 

The more desperate and battle-tested home side is going to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish, while the visiting side looks finally ready for a big letdown.

Lay the points, the play is MTSU.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* PAC-12 TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Oregon/Stanford.

Both teams have been involved in several lower-scoring affairs to open the season, but that fact has only helped in now driving this Week 5 total a little lower than it normally would/should be in my opinion.

Oregon is 4-0 SU/ATS, while Stanford is 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS.

The Ducks have seen the total go UNDER in three of four this year, including in three straight, while Stanford has also seen the total go UNDER in three of four this year, including in three straight as well.

I'm a "stats" and "trends" guy for sure, as they help me in solidifying my theories when I'm breaking down a game in my head.

As note that Oregon has seen the total go OVER the number in seven of its last ten after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row, while Stanford has seen the total go OVER in three of its last four in the same position.

As primarily a situational handicapper, this one falls right into my wheelhouse.

Stanford is off a tight 21-20 loss to Arizona, and I think the Cardinal will be able to at least duplicate that offensive output here.

Oregon had no mercy on Colorado in last week's 42-6 win, and it won't have any here either.

(Further analysis available.) 

This number is low, the play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* SEC GAME OF MONTH on Vanderbilt.

No. 23 Missouri is 4-0 and heavily favored here on the road facing 2-3 Vanderbilt, but with a home game vs. LSU next weekend, no only do I believe that this is a "letdown" spot for the Tigers, but also a "look-ahead."

And when you add those two factors together, that = "trap game."

Vanderbilt is 2-3 SU, but 0-5 ATS. That includes 0-3 ATS at home. But that fact has only helped in now driving this spread a little bit too large in my opinion.

This is a great situational play in my opinion. Clearly, I'm not calling for an outright victory, but I'm definitely expecting a much more competitive battle than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.

Grab the points, the play is VANDERBILT.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* SIDE WINNER on Michigan.

Michigan is 4-0 SU, but it's 0-3-1 ATS. Nebraska is 2-2 SU/ATS.

I say that the Wolverines finally put it all together this week on the road though and not only win this game, but do so in blowout fashion. Nebraska is 2-2. 

Last week after the first few minutes the Wolverines fell behind 7-0 to Rutgers, and many wondered if there was a a possible upset about to happen. 

Then Michigan posted 31 unanswered points to win the game, but not cover the large spread. JJ McCarthy finished with 214 yards and a TD. 

The Huskers moved back to .500 with a 28-14 win over Louisiana Tech last Saturday. Heinrich Haarberg had 107 yards and a TD. 

The first TD Michigan allowed to the Scarlet Knights caught them off guard, otherwise it would have been a shutout. 

The Wolverines made essentially no mistakes last weekend and I just can't see the Huskers keeping pace down the stretch.

The play is MICHIGAN.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* TOP TOTAL on the OVER Georiga/Auburn.

This is considered to be the Deep South's oldest rivalry. Georgia is 4-0 and ranked No. 1 in the country. Kirby Smart once again has his team lined up for a National Championship.

Auburn is 3-1, but off a 27-10 loss at Texas A&M as a ten-point dog. That's three straight ATS losses for the Tigers, and note that Auburn has seen the total go OVER the number in three of its last four after three or more ATS losses in a row. 

Georgia had seen the total go UNDER in three straight to open the season, before a 49-21 win over UAB last week. I think the Bulldogs will keep that offensive momentum rolling here in this rivalrly matchup.

The Tigers lost this game 42-10 last year as 27.5-point dogs, and the total did sail OVER the number of 49.5 in that one. I think we'll see a similar final combined score this season as well.

The home side has to be the aggressor here if it has any hopes of pulling off an upset.

At the same time, we can expect the Bulldogs to show no mercy as the run up the score.

This number is low, the play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BIG 12 GOM on Baylor.

Baylor is 1-3 SU and 0-3-1 ATS. UCF is 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS. 

Bears' QB Sawyer Robertson has 647 yards passing, one TD and four INT's. The Baylor run game averages 139.8 yards per game. 

The defense has been Baylor's strength so far, allowing 26.8 points and 376 yards per game. 

UCF is a big favorite here. It's won six of its last seven at home. Timmy McClain had 638 yards passing, five TD's and an INT. 

The Golden Knights ground game averages 260 yards per game, so clealry we can expect a lot of running in this one.

Overall UCF is also strong defensively in the early going, allowing 20 points and 347 yards per game. 

I say the desperate visiting side keeps the foot on the gas until the final horn, and conversely, I say that UCF allows the backdoor open just enough to allow the Bears to sneak in through down the stretch.

Grab the points, the play is BAYLOR.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* SEC TOM on the OVER Florida/Kentucky.

Two really good teams, but each has already played to several lower-scoring games of late, and I'm definitely now expecting a much higher-scoring shootout.

Florida is 3-1, while Kentucky is 4-0. The Gators have seen the total go 0-3-1 so far this year, while the Wildcats have seen the total go 2-2. 

Kentucky is off the 45-28 road win at Vanderbilt and I believe the Wildcats keep that offensive momentum going here and put the pressure on the Gators to keep pace, getting them out of their comfort zone.

Florida is off the 22-7 win over Charlotte, but note that the Gators have seen the total go OVER the number in three of their last four after holding their previous opponent to nine or less points in a SU victory.

Each team has benefited from a weak opening schedule, but for this big conference matchup, all signs point to this total eclipsing the posted number as the game goes down the stretch.

(More analysis available upon request.)

The play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BIG TEN GOW on Northwestern.

Here's a great "situational" play. Am I predicting that the Wildcats will win this game outright?

I'm clearly not.

But do I think that at 4-0, PSU is a "little" overrated here by the oddsmakers and general betting public (more the public than the oddsmakers, who I believe are "leading" the "joes" here?)

I absolutely do!

I don't follow any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with your approach to each game and situation is the best way to make your selections.

That said, I'm primarily a contrarian at heart, and also a strong "situational" capper.

And to me, this one just sets up so well for the home dog.

PSU is riding high at 4-0 SU/ATS, including a 31-0 home win over Iowa last time out, but with a week off before a game at home vs. lowly UMass, not only does this set up as letdown spot in my opinion, but also a "look ahead" position as well.

Add those two factors together and you get "trap game."

Northwestern is off the quality 37-34 OT win over Minnesota as an 11-point dog and I say it keeps that positive progression rolling here in a more competitive battle than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.

No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points, the play is NORTHWESTERN.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* ACC GOM on Pittsburgh.

UNC comes to Pittsburgh sitting at 3-0, while the Panthers are just 1-2. I'm not calling for an outright upset or anything, but everything points to a much tighter battle than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe in my opinion. 

The Tar Heels are led by Drake Maye, wh has 891 yards and four TD's. He also has four INT's as well though. They're off a 31-13 win over Minnesota. 

It's interesting to note as well that UNC has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five games vs. conference opponents.

Pitt is hungry, off back-to-back losses after falling 17-6 to WVU. Phil Jurkovec is going to keep his team competitive here in Week 4, so far he has a 4:3 TD:INT. 

One other interesting thing to note here is that the home team has won each of the last four games between these sides.

That said, I'm for sure not calling for the outright upset or anything, but I'm definitely expecting a very tight battle until the end.

Grab the points, the play is PITTSBURGH.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NON-CONF GOW on Nevada.

Texas State on paper is clearly the better team, and I'm not in any way trying to say that Nevada will win this game outright, but all signs point to a much tighter battle in my opinion than what this larger spread is suggesting.

Texas State is 2-1, and Nevada is 0-3. The Wolfpack won't be rolling over here though as they desperately try to get off the schneid and pull off the upset.

They almost pulled off the upset last time out, coming up short in a 31-24 setback to Kansas. The offense revolves around the run, led by Sean Dollars, who has 120 rushing yards and two TD's so far.

Dating to last year, Nevada has lost 13 straight. 

Texas State comes in over-confident after a 77-34 dismantling of FCS Jackson State. I'll argue though that the 34 points given up is what really stands out in that score. TJ Finley has 760 yards and six TD's, but those numbers are skewed due to the level of competition thus far.

The Wolfpack have faced some tough competiont so far this year and while I'll stop short in calling for the outright upset, all signs point to this one being much more competitive than what the oddsmakers have led us to think.

So grab the points, the play is NEVADA.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* BLOWOUT on USF.

USF is 1-2 SU/ATS, while Rice is 2-1 SU/ATS.

I can't understate how important I think that the "home field" advantage will be in this particular matchup. 

This is the Owls first true road game, and a predictable letdown is imminent in my opinion. 

JT Daniels has been decent with 805 yards passing, and an 8:2 TD:INT so far for Rice. 

Note though that if history is any precedence, then Rice can't be liking its chances too much here, despite being listed as the favorite, as note that the Owls have lost each of their last ten road games in September. 

Bulls' QB Byrum Brown has 450 yards passing and a 4:3 TD:INT. The offense of course revolves around a strong run game though that comes in averaging 225.7 yards per game, with Brown leading the way on the ground so far with 275 rushing yards and four rushing TDs.

The Bulls took Alabama down to the wire. Enough said.

Well I do absolutely believe the outright win is possible, in the end the official play is to grab as many points as you can.

The play is USF.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BIG TEN GOW on Michigan.

Both teams are 3-0 straight-up, but Rutgers is 3-0 ATS, while Michigan is 0-3 ATS.

I say that lop-sided stat changes today though as I expect the Wolverines to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish in this one as they look to give the Scarlet Knights a big dose of reality.

Rutgers is off to a 3-0 start for a third straight year after getting the better of VT by a score of 35-16 last weekend. 

RB Kyle Manangai had a career-high three TDs, but I believe he'll have a much more difficult time moving the ball today in this hostile road venue.

The Wolverines are off a 31-6 win over Bowling Green. That was the third and final game of Jim Harbough's suspension, so expect the home side to come out extra motivated here to lay a beating on its overmatched opponent.

JJ McCarthy had two TD's last weekend, but also three picks. That's an area of concern, but in the end I just think the pace in which the home side plays with, combined with the smothering defensive play will just be too much for Rutgers to handle down the stretch.

Lay the points, the play is MICHIGAN.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* ACC TOY on the UNDER FSU/CLEMSON.

Both teams have been involved in several high-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end this evening.

FSU is 3-0, while Clemson is 2-1.

The Seminoles have seen the total go OVER in all three of their games so far this season, while Clemson has seen it go over in two of thre, including in the Tigers latest 48-14 win over FAU.

The Tigers' chances of making the Football Playoff is likely already over after the Week 1 loss to Duke, but while Clemson has struggled at times offensivly, the Tigers for the most part have looked decent defensively.

FSU has yet to be challenged. Certainly no one has come close in slowing down the Seminoles offensively, but that's going to change this weekend in my opinion. 

The Tigers though can get right back into the picture with a win over FSU here today. The Seminoles competition to this point has to be called into question as well, as they BARELY held on for the 31-29 win at BC as 27.5-point favorites last week.

Don't expect Cade Klubnik to be expected to do too much here, rather instead be more of a "game manager." 

While each side has played to a lot of super high-scoring affairs of late, everything finally points to a much more defensive contest here in Week 4. The play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BIG TEN TOM on the OVER Wisconsin/Purdue.

Wisconsin is 2-1 and Purdue is 1-2. In what I anticipate will be a faster-paced affair, everything in my opinion points to this total eclipsing the posted number sooner, rather than later.

Wisconsin hasn't had any issues moving the ball and putting points on the board. In their one loss the Badgers were upset 33-21 at Washington State as 5.5-point favorites. 

They then bounced back in Week 3 with a 35-14 win over Georgia Southern. The Badgers got the better of Purdue by a score of 35-24 at home last year, so the Boilermakers certainly won't be lacking for motivation in this one.

Purdue has struggled defensively overall, last week falling 35-20 at home to Syracuse as a 2-point dog.

Defense takes a back seat here in my estimation on Friday night, the play is indeed on the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* SUN BELT TOY on the UNDER Georgia State/Coastal Carolina.

We have a couple of pretty good teams colliding here on Sunbelt Conference action on Thursday, as Coastal Carolina is 2-1, while Georgia State is 3-0. 

The Chanticleers are off the 66-7 win over Duquesne, while Georgia State rolled to a 41-25 win over Charlotte in its final tune-up before Conference play.

And that's where I believe we'll now see a much more competitive affair here than what the oddmakers are leading us to believe.

Darren Grainger will have a much more difficult time to move the ball through the air here facing CC's underrated defense.

I see this game being decided in the trenches and by field position and in a contest like that, the UNDER is the correct call.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* SIDE WINNER on Colorado State.

I'm not calling for an outright upset or anything, but with the majority of the World now believing that Prime Time is the best coach in the country, I feel that Colorado State will have an opportunity to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch.

Give the Buffs credit, they've looked great so far in back-to-back victories and covers. But with a game at high-powered Oregon up next, not only does this set up as a letdown spot, but then also a "look ahead." 

Colorado will take the foot off the gas in the second half, and CSU, which hasn't played since a 50-24 loss to Washington State two weeks ago, will have a great opportunity in the latter stages to keep this one competitive.

No outright, but closer than expected.

Grab the points, the play is COLORADO STATE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER Pittsburgh/WVU.

I base my picks on many different things. This particular one sets up extremely well from a situational stand-point. 

Pittsburgh is 1-1 SU after falling 27-21 at home to Cincinnati as a 6.5-point favorite last week. So far the Panthers have seen the total go OVER the number in both of their games, but note that they've seen the total go UNDER the number in five of their last six off a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite in their previous outing. 

WVU is also 1-1 after pulling away for a 56-17 win over Duequesne as a 38-point favorite last week. Both games for WVU haave also gone OVER the number, but in my opinion, all signs point to a much more defensive affair this time around.

The fact that these teams have already played to so many OVERS this year, has also helped in driving this particular total a little too high.

Despite this being a non-conference game, this is an important game for each school, and all signs point to a lower-scoring UNDER in my opinion.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* MONEY BLOWOUT on Minnesota.

This one sets up great for Minnesota from a situational stand point. 

Minnesota is 2-0 SU, but 0-2 ATS. It's been big favorites in each of its two wins at home, and now on the road I think it's finally the Gophers who have been underrated by the bookmakers here. 

UNC is 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS after holding on for a 40-34 OT win over Appalachian State. And with a bye week, before three straight home games vs. conference opponents, including the high-powered Orange when they return, not only does this set up as a letdown spot, but it's also a "look ahead." 

This game is going to be decided in the trenches and by field position and in a contest that I see being decided by whichever taem has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points.

The play is MINNESOTA.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BIG TEN GOY on Illinois.

Here's a great "situational" play. I'm not calling for an outright upset or anything, but I definitely feel this is a few too many points for Penn State to be giving up on the road here.

The Nittany Lions are off B2B blowout wins, both SU and ATS, most recently annihilating Delaware 63-7 as 44-point favorites. But with a game at home to Iowa next week, not only do I feel this is a letdown spot, but also a "look-ahead." And in my World, that = trap game. 

Illinois is 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS. It fell 34-23 at KU last week, after holding on for a 30-28 home win over a much-better than advertised Toledo side. 

This is Penn State's first true road game of the year and I feel the Lions will struggle to contain this hungry Illini team at home down the stretch.

No outright, but much closer than expected.

Grab the points, the play is ILLINOIS.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* ROUT on Missouri.

This one sets up great from a situational stand-point for Missouri in my opinion.

The Tigers are 2-0 SU, but they're -2 ATS. It's been two mediocre outings in a row for Missouri State, but now I'm expecting a much better effort here this week against a K-State side a little over-rated in my opinion.

K-State is 2-0 SU and ATS, but with a date at home vs. UCF next week, not only does this set up as a letdown spot, but it's also a look-ahead.

While I do feel an outright is possible, the official is to grab as many points as you can. The play is MISSOURI.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* MOUNTAIN WEST GAME OF MONTH on Air Force. 

I love the way this one sets up for Air Force. 

Utah State is 1-1 SU and 2-0 ATS after destroying Idaho State 78-28 last time out. 

But I just can't see the Aggies keeping pace on the raod here against this high-powered option offense of Air Force. Utah State lost 24-14 at Iowa, and I'm expecting an even bigger blowout here.

The Falcons are 2-0 SU, but 0-2 ATS. Last time out Air Force held on for a 13-3 win over Sam Houston State on a neutral field. 

Air Force was upset 34-27 at Utah State last year as an 11-point favorite, so the revenge-factor also comes into play here.

The Aggies won't be able to keep pace down the stretch. Lay the points, the play is AIR FORCE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* ACC TOTAL OF MONTH on the OVER Navy/Memphis.

Both teams have been involved in lower-scoring games to open the season, but I believe that Thursday's contest will fly well OVER the number before it's all said and done. This is a great "situational" play.

Have is now 1-1 to open the season, first falling 42-3 to Navy across the Pond, then it beat Wager 24-0 as a 42-point favorite last week. 

Note that the Midshipmen though have seen the total go OVER the number in five of their last seven after shutting out their opponent in their previous outing.

Memphis has domianted in two straight, smashing Bethune Cookman 56-14, before blasting Arkansas State 37-3 last week. Note that the Tigers have seen the total OVER the number though in eight of their last 11 after playing to two or more straight OVERS in a row.

Look for these two teams to push the pace and expect this total to fly OVER the number sooner, rather than later.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on Texas Tech.

The Ducks are 1-0 and the Red Raiders are 0-1. Oregon dismantled Portland State by a score of 81-7, but let's not overreact to that lop-sided result. They posted 729 yards of offense, but now the level of competition goes up considerably.

The Red Raiders suffered a 35-33 OT loss to Wyoming as 13.5-point favorites. Once again, I'll caution to not "overreact" to that result.

Overreacting to results after Week 1, either good or bad, is the quickest way to the poor house, and it's something the books know to look for as they try to bait unseasoned bettors into "overreacting" to a crazy Week 1 result.

It was a perfect storm of blunders for the Red Raiders last weekend, who actually outgained the Cowboys 431-320 in the humbling upset.

While the outright is possible in my opinion, I'm grabbing the points. The play is TEXAS TECH.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* UNDERDOG GOM on Ohio.

Ohio is 1-1 SU, but 0-2 ATS. I think the Bobcats though have a legitimate shot at winning this game outright, but my official call here will be to grab as many points as you can.

So far Bobcat QB CJ Harris has thrown for 248 yards, two TD's and one INT. The ground game has been fantastic in averaging 150.5 YPG. Defensively the Bobcats have looked stout so far as well, allowing 15 points and 257.5 yards per game on offense.

FAU crushed Monmouth in its opener, but I think it'll have a much more difficult time moving the ball today. Casey Thompson so far has 280 yards passing, five TDs and 1 INT.

And overall the Owls are allowing 20 points and 361 yards per game.

In a contest that I see being decided late, I'm grabbing the points.

The play is OHIO.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* ROUT on Northwestern.

Northwestern underwhelmed last week, but I expect it to pull away for the comfortable win and cover here at home in Week 2.

UTEP bounced back from a Week 0 loss to beat Incarnate Word by a score of 28-14 last week, but an immediate return to mediocrity seems imminent in my opinion. The Miners have still lost 13 of their last 14 road games in September. 

The Wildcats were stifled 24-7 at Rutgers, but I expect this offense to bounce back. Ben Bryant had 169 yards and two INT's, facing a better than advertised defense. Defensively though the Wildcats looked stout I though and I think the unit wil be a difference-maker in this one.

After 12 straight losses dating to last year, I expect NORTHWESTERN to finally step up here and deliver at home.

Lay the points, the play is NORTHWESTERN.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* SIDE WINNER on Nebraska.

Colorado pulled off a 45-42 upset win over TCU last week, and the entire World has lost its mind. Deion and Shedeur Sanders looked great in that game, but let's not overreact here. Sanders finished with 510 passing yards and four TDs and 565 offensive yards. 

Nebraska wet the bed in its 13-10 loss to Minnesota last week. It had a 7-3 lead heading into the fourth quarter. Once again, let's not overreact too much to early results here, either negative or positive, after Week 1. 

On paper Nebraska is the "better" team. And I expect a big bounce-back for the visiting side here in Week 2, and a letdown from Colorado.

Grab the points, the play is NEBRASKA.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NON-CONF TOW on the UNDER Illinois/Kansas.

Both teams won last week, and each failed to cover the large spread. Both teams went OVER the number as well, but now with the level of competition going up, I'm expecting a much more defensive-affair.

Illinois beat Toledo 30-28, unable to cover the 7.5-point spread.

Kansas rolled over Missouri State 48-17, unable to cover the 32.5-point spread.

I feel the overall situation points to a much more defensive battle than what this O/U line is suggesting.

The play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on Duke.

There are always super high expectations for the Clemson Tigers. If they aren't in the Championship game, then essentially the season is viewed as a failure, despite how well the team actually did.

But expectations are also high in Duke this year after the Blue Devils finished 9-4 and a Bowl win under first-year head coach Mike Elko. Riley Leonard won't be intimidated here by Clemson, as he's already battle-tested after last season's stellar performance, throwing for 2,967 yards to go along with 20 TDs and six INTs. 

Cade Klubnik won't have a "cakewalk" time here on the road. Yes, the Tigers are loaded everywhere and I'm not predicting an outright win here or anything for Duke, but the Blue Devils' strength on defense was in their secondary. They also have two great safeties in Brandon Johnson and Jaylen Stinson. 

In a contest that I see being competitive late, I'm grabbing the points.

The play is DUKE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* WINNER on Northwestern.

With so much action going on, I'm really busy and just don't have the time to write out my full analysis for every pick. 

So I'll be keeping it succinct a lot throughout the season.

The bottom line with this pick is that the Wildcats will for sure be an improved team this season. The addition of QB Ben Bryant was significant. Last year with Cinncy he had a 21:7 TD:INT.

Rutgers' QB Gavin Wimasatt struggled last year.

The outright is possible, but let's grab the points.

The play is NORTHWESTERN.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR on Toledo.

Toledo finished 9-5 last year, and it'll be gunning for the outright upset here. Toledo has the big men to grind with Illinois in the trenches, and a solid ground game to keep the sticks moving. 

But overall, this is a super tough defense that finished No. 1 in the MAC last year. The secondary in particular is deep and experienced. 

Illinois will have to deal with QB Dequan Finn as well, and its weakness on defense is defending the pass.

I expect Toldedo to hang around late, and to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* DESTRUCTION on Northern Illinois.

Northern Illiois and Boston College each are coming off 3-9 campaigns. 

The Eagles averaged 17.8 PPG, while allowing 30.3. 

The Huskies were more competitive, averaging 27.3 PPG, while allowing 32.8. 

BC was favored by at least 9.5-points on one occassion last year, and the Eagles were unable to cover. 

NIU on the other hand went l-0 as an underdog 9.5 or more points.

I just don't trust BC to cover this large spread.

Grab the points, the play is NORTHERN ILLINOIS.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on Fresno State.

Purdue has a new head coach in Ryan Walters, who was the defensive coordinator for Illinois for the past two years.

A new face under center for the Boilermakers, as Aidan O'Connell is out, and Hudson Card is in, coming over from Texas after playing four games.

I say there's going to be some chemistry issues out of the gate.

For Fresno State though is loaded with talent from transfers coming in. After starting the year 1-4, the Bulldogs rattled off nine straight wins. 

While I think the outright win is possible, give me the points.

The play is FRESNO STATE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE TOM on the UNDER Stanford/Hawaii.

I think this is a few too many points in Week 1 for each side to combine to go over this number.

Both teams enter off terrible seasons. Stanford was 3-9, and Hawaii was 3-10. They have a new face in Troy Taylor to try and turn this offense around, but it's going to be a work in progress. 

Hawaii's passing game and offensive line were a weak point last season.

With each team with more questions than answers offensively, everything points to this one staying UNDER the posted number on Friday night.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NON-CONF GAME OF MONTH on Utah.

Cam Rising is hurt for the Utes to open up the season after suffering an injury in the Rose Bowl last year, but the offensive line is no joke for Utah. The Gators have a weak offensive attack, and will be concentrating on the run today. 

Special teams and defense will put Utah in fantastic field position as well all game. 

In fact, many believe this will be Kyle Whittingham's strongest defense of all time. 

The home side won't need Rising to rise past the Gators here. Lay the points, the play is UTAH.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on SDSU on the moneyline.

Ohio is coming off a great year, reaching the MAC Championship, and winning a Bowl game. Overall the Bobcats finished 10-4. QB Kurtis Ward won the Offensive Player Of The Year. 

Overall Ohio finished 34th on the offensive end, and was solid defensively as well.

The Aztecs finished the season 7-6 overall, and 5-3 in MWC play. In the end SDSU fell 25-23 to MTSU in the Hawaii Bowl.

Note that San Diego State had the most first-team all-MW selections with seven, the most combined first and second team picks with 11, and the most all-conference selections overall with 16. Additionally they had the Mountain West Special Teams Player of the Year in Jack Browning (in fact, over the last eight years, an Aztec has been named Mountain West Special Teams Player of the Year five times.)

Ohio has been consistent, but regression after last year's amazing season seems imminent to me.

I'm going to avoid the spread option and instead confidentally lay the price and take the home side on the moneyline.

The play is SDSU to win this game outright.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on Clemson.

As note that Clemson is 5-1 ATS in its last six neutral field games and 6-1 ATS in its last seven as an underdog, while Alabama is interestingly 7-8 ATS in its last 15 non-conference games. I think DeShaun Watson’s offense will prove to be too much for Alabama’s stout defense. Grab the points.

- The BookieKiller Crew

This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on USC.

As note that USC is 6-0 ATS after two or more consecutive SU victories, while Penn State is already 0-2 ATS this season in non-conference games. I think USC’s defense is the difference maker today. Lay the points.

- The BookieKiller Crew