Sports Picks & Predictions

This is a 10* CBB TOM on the OVER Purdue/UConn.

UConn has so far seen every game its played in during this tournament go UNDER the number, and I believe that this O/U line is now a bit TOO low.

Note as well that the Huskies have in fact seen the total go OVER the number in seven of their last ten after after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row.

Purdue has seen its last three go UNDER the number, but note that the Boilermakers have also seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row.

The two best teams in the country going head-to-head here and in my opinion, this one has "shootout" written ALL over it.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* play on UConn.

The Crimson Tide have exceeded expectations. They lost four of their final six games before the Tournament started, but here they are in the Final Four, and according to KenPom they've faced the toughest schedule so far in the Tournament. Bama can score with the best of them, averaging 90.8 PPG, but overall the Crimson Tide are ranked just 105th in defensive efficiency. The tourney defending champs on the other hand are ranked 1st in offensive efficiency and 4th in defensive efficiency in the country. So far the Huskies are 4-0 ATS in this tournament, and with their ultimate goal now in sight, I expect them to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish. Lay the points, the play is UCONN.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* play on Purdue.

With the majority of the public riding the Cinderella Wolfpack here, I'm going the other way. This is the first time that NC State has been in the Final 4 since 1983. The Boilermakers have won a school record 33 games this year and I think their deep and veteran team will pull away comfortably for the win here, and have NC State playing from behind from start to finish. So far the Wolfpack is averaging 75.5 PPG in this tourney, and conceding 65.5, while the Boilermakers are averaging 84 PPG, while holding teams to just 62.8. These two teams are on different levels and I don't see Purdue allowing the Wolfpack to dictate the pace of this one. I expect a wide-open shootout, but one that Purdue pulls away for both the blowout win and comfortable cover at the same time. Lay the points, the play is indeed on PURDUE.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* play on the OVER NC State/Purdue.

With the majority of the public riding the Cinderella Wolfpack here, I'm going the other way. This is the first time that NC State has been in the Final 4 since 1983. The Boilermakers have won a school record 33 games this year and I think their deep and veteran team will pull away comfortably for the win here, and have NC State playing from behind from start to finish. So far the Wolfpack is averaging 75.5 PPG in this tourney, and conceding 65.5, while the Boilermakers are averaging 84 PPG, while holding teams to just 62.8. These two teams are on different levels and I don't see Purdue allowing the Wolfpack to dictate the pace of this one. I expect a wide-open shootout, but one that Purdue pulls away for both the blowout win and comfortable cover at the same time. This number is low, the play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NIT TOTAL BK on the UNDER.

It's the top two seeds going head-to-head here in the NIT Championship Game and instead of trying to figure out who is actually going to win/cover, I'm instead going to focus on the total.

And for me, the old saying that "defense wins championships," couldn't be more apt here in my opinion. These are two great offensive teams, but the one that can step up and play better defensively is going to be the one that comes out on top.

The Pirates did look good defensively though in their most recent 84-67 victory over Georgia. 

Indiana State just beat Utah 100-90, and it's seen the total go OVER in two straight now in the tournament. But the general betting public is now quick to hammer the OVER whenver the Sycamores and Larry Blur hit the court. 

While the majority go one way with this total, I'm going the other. The play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* TOTAL BK on the UNDER Georgia/Seton Hall.

The NIT shifts to MSG and I'm expecting much more of a defensive affair here between these two teams than what the oddsmakers are trying to leads us to believe. 

Seton Hall averages 73.3 PPG, and Georgia concedes 73.3. 

The Pirates allow only 69.8, while the Bulldogs average 74.9.

This game is going to be tight from start to finish, but look for the longer lay off to give these teams their "legs" back, and for that to benefit the defensive end.

I say this one falls UNDER once the final horn sounds.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* ELITE 8 TOP SIDE on Duke.

I've played on both these teams already in this tournament. However, I believe that the Wolfpack's Cinderella run is coming to an end finally.

Duke averages 79 PPG, while conceding 66.

NC State averages 76 PPG, while conceding 72.2. 

These teams split a pair of games this year, but Duke will now have a chance to avenge the quarterfinal loss in the Conference tournament game. 

Duke's an elite team that's had a couple huge "brain farts" this year. It's able to match up with anyone and it looked dominant defensively in its win over Houston.

I don't see the Wolfpack beating the Blue Devils twice in two weeks. 

Duke was an 11.5-point favorite in the Conference Tournament, so is a huge overreaction now by the oddsmakers in trying to "lead" the general betting public?!

I'm not buying it, and am instead laying the points here with revenge-minded DUKE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* TOP TOTAL on the OVER Illinois/Connecticut.

What more can be said about these two teams which hasn't been said a million times at this point. If you're betting on this game, you almost assuredly know all the cast of characters on each side, and the strengths and weaknesses of each side.

Illinois averages 84.2 PPG, while allowing 73.2. 

UConn averages 81.6 PPG, while allowing 63.6. 

Coach Dan Hurley says, "We suck at winning close games, [so] you've got to go with the alternative."

With the defending champs pushing the pace like I suspect, everything points to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* play on Houston.

I had a play on Duke in its win over James Madison last time out, but I think the No. 4 Blue Devils will bow out here now vs. the No. 1 seed Houston. The Cougars survived an OT thriller with Texas A&M, and with that legendary game now under their belts, I think we'll see a much more efficient Houston side here. The Cougars are basck in the Sweet 16 for the fifth straight time and they're going to have a distinct home-court advantage here, as this South Region portion is being played in Dallas. Lay the points, the play is HOUSTON.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* play on Purdue.

Gonzaga beat McNeese and a banged-up Kansas side, but I say it's run in this year's Tourney comes to an end this weekend. Overall they average 85.6 PPG, while conceding 68.7. Purdue averages 84.2, while allowing 70.2. The Boilermakers have had a more difficult schedule, have been more consistent overall this season, and will have the best player on the floor in Zach Edey (24.5 points and 12.1 rebounds.) Lay the points, the play is PURDUE.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* play on NC State.

NC State ranks 42nd nationally on offense and 76th in adjusted defensive efficiency. Marquette is healthy an on a mission of its own. The Golden Eagles are 19th on offense and 21st on defense. The Wolfpack have been one of these teams that simply won't go away and I expect that to again be the case in this matchup. Marquette will likely win this game, but it's going to be a dogfight down to the end, as Marquette does lack that killer's mentality overall in my opinion. Either way, grab the points with NC STATE.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* play on Alabama.

The Tide is the Nation's No. 1 scoring team and I think Alabama's offense will, at the very least, keep this one competitive until the final moments. Overall the Tide average 90.7 PPG, while UNC averages 90 so far over the first two games. Alabama will have its hands full in the middle with Armando Bacot, but look for their efficient shooting to keep them in this one late. Grab the points, the play is ALABAMA.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* play on San Diego State.

SDSU survived a late push from UAB in the first round, and then it blew out Yale 85-57 in the second. The Huskies are on a mission to repeat as Tourney champs after cruising by Stetson, before beating Northwestern 75-58. The Aztecs are out for revenge here after falling to the Huskies in last year's tournament championship game 76-59. SDSU returns many of those same players and I expect that experience to be crucial in this one. Grab the points, the play is SDSU.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* play on Clemson.

Clemson beat No. 11 seed New Mexico, then upset Clemson by eight points to arrive to this point, while Arizona beat LBSU, before then taking down No. 7 seed Dayton by ten. The Tigers ranks 24th in offensive efficiency, and 38th in defensive efficiency, while Arizona is ninth in offensive and tenth in defensive efficency. PJ Hall and the Tigers won't be going down without a fight here. I'll argue it's had the tougher road to this point. I'm not calling for an outright upset, but I do think this one will be a "nail-biter." Grab the points, the play is CLEMSON.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on Seton Hall.

I'm a contrarian at heart, but when you get to this point of the season with so few games and teams remaining, I believe "where the money is" so to speak becomes less of an important factor.

And that's the case in this one with UNLV visting Seton Hall in the quarterfinals. I had a play on the Pirates in their most recent 72-58 home win over defending tourney champ North Texas and I thought the home floor advantage would be important in the outcome in that one, and that'll again be the case once the final horn sounds in this one as well. 

The Rebels first took care of Penn 84-77 on the road, before returning home to beat Boston College by a score of 79-70.

So far the Rebels have won their first two games by an average of eight points, but they haven't been great defensively, conceding 78 points so far in the early going.

The Pirates had to hold on for dear life in their first game, beating Saint Joseph's 75-72 in overtime, but they looked a lot better in their win over the Mean Green, beating North Texas 72-58.

It's just packed every time Seton Hall plays, and while the Rebels have been decent on the road this year with an 8-3 record, I just think their time has now run out here on Wednesday night.

Hall has stepped up its defensive play in the tournament, holding its two opponents to an average of just 65 points per game.

The Pirates are also the much better rebounding team.

I think when you add it all up, home court advantage will indeed prove critical in the outcome of this game on Wednesday night for SETON HALL.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NIT TOY on the OVER Cincinnati/Indiana State.

Cincinnati beat San Francisco 73-72 in OT to open, and then 74-57 over Bradley. Both of those totals were set at 143.5 and the only reason the Game 1 total went OVER the number was because it went to OT.

Now here are the Bearcats facing another high-tempo and efficient offense and I don't think this number is nearly high enough.

Indiana State beat SMU 101-92, before then pulling away for the 76-65 victory over Minnesota.

I'm fully expecting each side to reach into the 80's in this one.

Indiana State is 15-1 at home this year and will look to get the Bearcats out of their comfort zone, and playing from behind.

Keep your eyes on Cream Abdul-Jabarr, who leads a highly efficent offense (best "2-point" offense in the country at 62.7%.) 

Look for this total to fly OVER the number sooner, rather than later.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* CBI TOURNEY TOM on the UNDER Arkansas State/Montana.

It's the quarter-finals of the CBI and while both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games to this point, I'm anticiapting a much more defensive affair this afternoon finally.

Arkansas State is off a nail-biting 86-85 win over BCU. Overall it averages 79 PPG, while allowing 77.6 this year. 

Montana enters off a super high-scoring affair as well, holding on for an 82-79 overtime victory over Presbyterian. Overall the Grizzlies average 77.3 PPG, while conceding 71.3.

These teams don't typically play at a fast pace and each comes in fatigued. 

Look for this afternoon contest to produce a much more defensive battle than what this O/U line is suggesting. The play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* play on Yale.

SDSU held on for the 69-65 win over UAB in the First Round, and was unable to cover the 6.5-point spread. I think the Aztecs will now also struggle to cover here vs. this confident and red hot Yale side got the better of Auburn 78-76 as 14-point dogs. The Bulldogs are 5-1 SU in neutral site games this year and simply won't be fazed. They had to compete with the Tigers in the middle of the paint last time out, but they do in fact matchup a lot better here vs. the Aztecs. Outright win?! Anything's possible, but I see this one coming down to the wire. Grab the points, the play is YALE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* play on Clemson.

While I think an outright win is possible, in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can in a contest that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last. Clemson hammered New Mexico 77-56 to advance, while Baylor breezed by Colgate 92-67. The Tigers locked down New Mexico and held the Lobos to just 31 percent shooting, and I believe this aggressive defensive play will give the underdog a legit chance at winning this one outright. Grab the points, the play is CLEMSON.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* play on Duke.

I think No. 12 seed James Madison's Cinderella run will come to an end here vs. No. 4 Duke. James Madison got out to an early lead and never looked back in the win over Wisconsin, but Duke buried Vermont 64-47. The Dukes only concede 68.9 PPG, but Duke averages 79.4. I think the Blue Devils up-tempo offense will be just too much for James Madison to keep up with down the stretch. Lay the points, the play is DUKE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* GOLDEN SIDE PLAY on Illinois.

I say No. 11 Duquesne's "Cinderella" run comes to an end here vs. No. 3 Illinois on Saturday night. 

The Illini smashed Morhead State 85-69, and I'm predicting a similar final outcome in this one as well.

The Dukes somehow managed a 71-67 win over No. 6 BYU as nine-point dogs, and I say there's now a major over-reaction by the general betting public for the underdog side.

Lay the points with confidence, the play is ILLINOIS.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BLOOD-BATH on Kansas.

I had a play on Gonzaga in its opening round win over McNeese State, but I believe the Bulldogs will have their hands full here with the Jayhawks.

Kansas beat Samford 93-89 to move, but was unable to cover the 7.5-point spread.

The Jayhawks are without their best player, but they're still loaded with talent, including the likes of Hunter Dickinson and KJ Adams.

Graham Ike and Ryan Nembhard round out a deep Gonzaga squad, but I don't see Kansas going down here without a fight.

In a game that I see going down to the wire, I'm grabbing the points.

The play is KANSAS.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on Seton Hall.

UNT moved into the second round of the NIT with a big road win at LSU on Tuesday (I had the Mean Green in that one), but I believe they'll now finally stumble here in this difficult road venue.

They're the defending champs of this Tournament, but with a new coach. While they pulled off the slight road upset in the First Round, I'm not predicting lightning to "strike twice" here. 

I also had the Pirates in their 75-72 win over St. Joes, and while they did win SU, they didn't cover the four-point spread. 

But the Pirates own a size advantage, while also bringing a better overall offense to the table (with pretty much even defensive units.)

SETON HALL is 15-3 at home this year and the fans will be out here in force to ensure there will be a new NIT champion this year. Lay the points.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* TOP CONTRARIAN SIDE on Wisconsin.

I think No. 12 James Madison will have its hands full here with No. 5 seed Wisconsin.

The Badgers are coming off a close loss in the Big Ten Championship game and I see them taking out their frustrations here on the Dukes.

James Madison has won 13 straight, which includes the Sun Belt Tourney Championship, but the old saying: all good things must come to an end, couldn't be more apt in my opinion. 

The Dukes only managed one win over a ranked team, it was their first game of the year at then No. 4 Michigan State, winning 79-76. I don't think they'd win again if those teams played today.

Look for the Badgers size and and shooting percentage to be just too much for James Madison to keep up to down the stretch.

Lay the points, the play is on WISCONSIN.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on San Diego State.

I think SDSU will not only win this game, but do so in blowout fashion, making this a spread in which I have no issues at all in laying.

UAB finished 23-11, while SDSU was 24-10. UAB beat Temple in the AAC Championship Game, while the Aztecs earned the No. 5 seed by finishing 11-7 in the Mountain West, ranked in the Top 25 for most of the season.

UAB managed to rattle off three wins in the conference tournament, but I think it'll have its hands full here. Overall the Blazers average 77.4 PPG, while conceding 75.8.

SDSU averags 74.2 PPG, while conceding only 67.3. The difference will come down the stretch on the defensive end.

Lay the points with confidence, the play is SDSU.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* play on Gonzaga.

No. 12 seeds are just 53-99 vs. No. 5 seeds in this Tournament. Gonzaga finished 25-7 overall, while McNeese State was 30-3. The Cowboys are a tough team under coach Will Wade, who took LSU to the Sweet 16 in 2019, but the Bulldogs experience here at this point will prove to be a difference-maker in my opinion. Mark Few will find a way to not only win this game, but do so in blowout fashion. Lay the points, the play is GONZAGA.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* play on Oakland.

The Wildcats can score. We all know this. But they can't defend. And the Grizzlies know this. In what will likely turn out to be a high-scoring shootout, we think that Oakland can "hang" with the Wildcats and, at the very least, keep this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch with all the points they've been afforded in this one. The Grizz have been competitive all year, as evidenced by their 21-13 ATS record this season. Oakland was a dog in 12 games this year and covered in nine of them. No outright in this one, but much closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Grab the points, the play is OAKLAND.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* play on Colorado State.

Ultimately I feel that "rest" will lead to "rust" here for Texas. Colorado State rolls into the Round of 64 off a dominant 25-point victory over Virginia, shooting 55.3 percent from the field, while holding its opponent to just 25 percent shooting. The Longhorns have been off since March 13th when they lost in the second round of the Big 12 Tournament. Joel Scott looks on fire right now again for the Rams, so I'm grabbing the points with COLORADO STATE in this one.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BLOWOUT on Boise State.

Colorado finished 24-10 and had its eight-game win streak snapped in its 75-68 loss to Oregon in the Pac 12 Tournament title game, but they return to the Tournament in the First Four for the first time since 2021.

Boise State finished 22-10, and it's one of the only teams to earn a bid after losing its first conference tournament game.

The Broncos though had some big wins this year and won't be fazed. They beat Saint Mary's and went 2-1 in their last three regular-season games vs. Tournament bound teams. 

Boise State defends the three-point line incredibly well, ranked 23rd nationally, while also finishing with a top-five defensive rebounding percentage. 

Colorado won only one game away from home vs. an NCAA Tournament team. 

Boise State has two extra days of rest here after losing its first game in the conference tournament, which is really big situationally as well at this point of the year.

While I clearly feel the outright is possible, the official call is to grab as many points as you can with BOISE STATE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NIT OPENING RND TOP SIDE on Seton Hall.

If we're looking at this from a betting perspective, which clearly we are, then we find that nearly 75 percent of the early public money is on the visiting side.

That of course makes the home side really attractive to me, appealing to my natrual contrarian ways.

The Hawks enter the NIT Tournament averaging 76.7 PPG, while allowing 71.3. Erik Reynolds II leads the nightly charge by averaging 17 points and 2.7 rebounds.

Seton Hall averages 72.8 PPG, while conceding 69.5. Kadary Richmond leads most nights by averaging 16.1 points and 4.9 assists.

The Pirates are 14-3 SU at home. I think they'll control the pace of this one and be able to pull away down the stretch for not only the win, but also the comfortable cover.

Lay the points, the play is SETON HALL.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BLOWOUT on Grambling State.

I think Grambling State is primed for its first-ever NCAA Tournament win, in its first-ever Tournament Berth, after beating Texas Southern in the SWAC Tournament, after losing in the same game each of the last two years. 

The Montana State Bobcats entered the regular-season finale with a 13-17 record, and then they posted four straight wins, winning the Big Sky Conference Tournament to earn a third straight NCAA tournament berth (note that the Bobcats are 0-5 all-time in March Madness games.)

The Bobcats got hot from range in March and won their tournament, but Grambling State defends the perimeter incredibly well, allowing the second-lowest percentage (30%) in the SWAC.

Montana State struggles to defend the rim, ranking near the bottom in many metrics. 

So that plays into Grambling State's strength, as it generates 53 percent of its points from inside the arc.

Look for Grambling State to exploit this weakness, which could also easily lead to an outright victory.

That said, the official call is to grab as many points as you can with GRAMBLING STATE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* TOTAL BLOWOUT on the OVER Colorado State/UVA.

This is the lowest total on the board, but it's a bit TOO low in my estimation.

Yes, these two teams feature two of the slowest paces in the country, but the Rams still feature a Top 50 offense led by senior Isiah Stevens (ranked seventh nationally in assists.) The team oveall is ranked second in the country in assist rate as well at 65.7 percent. 

These teams lost in their conference tournaments and enter as tenth seeds. 

Virginia of course plays smothering defense and ranks seventh in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency. 

But the Cavaliers have conceded at least 60 points in four of their last five games, and note that the Rams have scored 60-plus in nine straight.

This can still be a low-scoring game and go OVER this tiny number, and that's exactly what I'm expecting to see transpire.

This O/U line is low in my estimation, the play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NIT ATS BLOOD-BATH on Iowa.

Kansas State finished 19-14, but just 2-8 in true road games.

Iowa finished 18-14 overall, but 13-4 at home.

I think these numbers matter right now here in this NIT Opening matchup, as look for the Hawkeyes to not only win this game, but to do so by a sizeable margin.

The Hawkeyes averaged 82.9 PPG, while conceding 79. The Wildcats average 71.9 PPG, while allowing 70.5.

The margin of error is pretty slim for each team, but there's a big road a home discrepancy factor that comes into play here.

Tournament time and home floor advantage can't be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this one.

Lay the points, the play is IOWA.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NIT ULTIMATE BK on North Texas.

North Texas has a new coach this year in Ross Hodge. UNT enters the defending NIT champs though and in a contest that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points.

UNT finished 18-14, while LSU was 17-15. 

The Mean Green went 4-2 down the stretch, while Matt McMahon and the Tigers went 3-2 in their final five. 

Interestingly, this is the second meeting of the season between the teams, and UNT plays with revenge after the 66-62 neutral site loss to LSU back on November 17th. 

But that was then, and this is now. UNT enters 73rd in the KenPom rankings, while LSU is 91st. 

The Mean Green have one of the best defenses in the nation still, and that'll be the difference-maker in the end.

While I clearly feel the outright is possible, my official call will be to grab as many points as you can with NORTH TEXAS.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BLOWOUT on Wagner.

These two teams were "lucky" to win their respective conference tournaments to earn this opportunity, but that said, I still have no idea how the books have Howard favored here.

They won two more games, but they have one of the worst defenses in the entire nation and they also turn it over 21.7 percent of their possessions (easily the worst of all the teams in the Tournament.) 

The Seahawks have the second slowest tempo in the country, but they also rank tenth in opponent three-point %, which counters Howard's crutch on leaning on the three-ball for offensive production. 

Wagner seems to be the healthier team coming in on paper as well from what I'm seeing. In a contest that could come down to whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points. 

The play is WAGNER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* SEC TOURNEY TOY on the UNDER South Carolina/Auburn.

Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, including in their first Tournament contest, and because of that I believe this O/U line is now inflated here on Friday night.

South Carolina is off an 80-66 win oer Arkansas yesterday, with the total just sneaking OVER the number of 143.5.

The Gamecocks most recently lost to Auburn 101-61 in mid-February, anod that South Carolina has in fact seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of its last 12 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference road loss as a dog vs. an opponent. 

Auburn closed out the regular season with three straight victories, but it hasn't played since March 9th.

Look for each side to double-down on the defensive end though here in the rematch as this Over/Under line is now a little TOO high in my estimation.

The play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BK on UAB.

This is the AAC Quarterfinal. The Shockers are off an upet over Memphis 71-65 as nine-point dogs and I believe they'll now predictably stumble here vs. UAB which plays its first game of the Conference Tournament after beating SMU 74-70 in its regular-season finale.

These teams played once in the regular season, and UAB fell 74-66 as an 8-point home favorite, which is signficant for us to take note of, as the Blazers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent.

look for the well-rested BLAZERS to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish and lay the points with confidence!

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* play on Liberty.

This one is based upon revenge from their most recent regular-season meeting.

UTEP finished 16-15, and Liberty was 18-13.

In their most recent matchup on March 2nd, the Miners somehow managed the 67-51 road win as nine-point dogs. Note that the Flames are 7-3 ATS in their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference home loss as a fav vs. an opponent.

Lay the points, the play is LIBERTY.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* play on Loyola Chicago.

Conference Tournament time, and the end of the season in general means that I handicap the games differently than I do in the regular season.

This one is all about the "revenge" factor, because the last time these teams played against each other, 23-7 Loyola Chicago lost 79-64 to the 18-12 Bonnies on February 27th, and note that the Ramblers are 7-3 ATS in their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference road loss vs. an opponent.

Look for the neutral site location to favor LOYOLA CHICAGO in this one.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* play on Tulsa.

The Golden Hurricane finished 16-14, while ECU was 14-17. The Hurricane beat No. 24 USF 76-70 in their regular season finale, while the Pirats lost 82-72 at 1.5-point home favorites to Charlotte. Tulsa plays with revenge after their most recent matchup, a 62-57 loss on January 7th.

I say all of these factors combine for TULSA to, at the very least, pull off the ATS cover this afternoon.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* PAC 12 GOM on Cal.

With nearly 70% of the early public money on Stanford, we're definitely going full on contrarian with this one.

Stanford snapped a six-game slide at the end of the regular season with an 80-58 win over these same Cal Bears.

Cal though won 73-71 at home back on January 26th. Cal didn't cover in either game, but now here in this neutral location, I believe these evenly matched sides will battle down to the wire. This one has the feel of whichever team has its hands on the ball last will come out on top in the season "grudge match." 

Grab the points, the play is indeed on CAL.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* ACC TOURNEY TOY on the UNDER FSU/Virginia Tech.

These teams have played to several higher-scoring games to close out the regular season, and in their last matchup vs. each other their total also eclipsed the posted number.

But those facts have only helped in driving this Tournament O/U line a few points higher than it normally would/should be in my opinion. 

FSU closed the regular season with an 83-75 win over Miami, but note that the Seminoles have seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of their last ten after playing to three or more straight OVERs in a row.

They lost 83-75 to Virginia Tech on the road back in February, and note that the Seminoles have also seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of their last 12 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference road loss vs. an opponent.

The Hokies closed out the year with three straight wins, but the team that steps up and plays some defense today will be the one that comes out on top.

I say this number is much too high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* SUMMIT LEAGUE TOY on the OVER Denver/South Dakota State.

These teams have played to some lower-scoring affairs so far in the Confernece Tournament, but I'm finally expecting more of an offensive battle here between Denver and South Dakota State on Tuesday night.

The Pioneers managed the tight 66-63 win over Nebraska Omaha to advance, while South Dakota State beat Oral Roberts 79-63 and St. Thomas 59-49. Both games went UNDER the number.

When these teams played last in the regular season though, the total went OVER the posted number of 165.5 in the Jackrabbits commanding 97-70 win.

While I do expect a much more competitive battle this time around, I do believe we'll see a similar pace and final combined score in this one as well.

With each team pushing the pace like I suspect, everything does indeed point to the OVER as the correct call as far as the total is concerned!

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* WEST COAST TOURNEY GOY on San Francisco.

San Francisco finished 23-9 overall in the West Coast Conference, but it wasn't good enough to earn a first round bye. The Dons though went on to smoke Portland 72-51 yesterday, not "looking past" their lowly opponent whatsoever.

The Dons faced the Bulldogs twice in the regular season and lost both times. One was really close, one was a blowout. The Dons lost 77-72 at Gonzaga on January 25th, then they also lost 86-68 at home to the Bulldogs on February 29th.

Now here in this neutral site location in Vegas, I believe the Dons will keep it close, similar to what they did on the road earlier in the year.

The win over Portland only helps with chemistry, while the time off could lead to a little rust for Gonzaga.

It's difficult to beat a team three times in the same year. That's the old saying anyway.

That said, I'm not calling for an outright victory, but I for sure am expecting this to be a battle until the final horn.

This is a great overall situational play, so grab the points, because the play is indeed on SAN FRANCISCO.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BIG SKY TOURNEY TOY on the UNDER Sacramento State/Eastern Washington.

Sacramento State got past Idaho 72-64 yesterday, so dating back to the regular season the Hornets have now seen the total go OVER in three straight. Note though that CSUS has seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of its last 11 after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row.

The Hornets lost 91-88 to Eastern Washington in the final regular season game against each other, and while that total flew well OVER the number, now that the Tournament is here, I'm expecting a much more defensive battle this time around.

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BIG SKY TOURNEY GOY on Idaho State.

Two poor teams, but Idaho State plays with revenge here after a 92-88 OT home loss to NAU as a 7.5-point favorite back in late February, and note that the Bengals are 8-2 ATS in their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent.

Idaho State is just 12-19, while NAU is only 14-18.

This neutral site affair favors Idaho State for a number of different reasons.

It's tourney time guys and I don't have a lot of extra time for analysis these days. But with nearly 75% of the early public money on NAU, we're going the other way.

The play is IDAHO STATE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* Colonial Conference Tournament TOY on the UNDER Campbell/Monmouth.

Campbell finished 14-17 overall, while Monmouth finished 17-14. These teams played three weeks ago, and Monmouth managed the tight 88-87 home win on a three-pointer at the buzzer, and suffice it to say, I'm expecting another tight battle until the end.

But while that total flew well OVER the number, this time around here now in the Tournament, I'm expecting a much more defensive battle. 

The Fighting Camels closed the year with a 64-62 win over North Carolina A&T, while Monmouth finished with an 85-70 win at Elon to close out its regular season campaign.

Campbell though has seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of its last 12 when trying to avenge a SU loss against an opponent.

In my opinion, this total is just a little bit high, so the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* SOUTHERN GOY on VMI.

Outright victory? I'm not calling for that. But I do just thinkg that 16-15 East Tennessee State is severely overvalued here.

The Buccaneers won both games vs. the 4-27 VMI Keydets, who I think can keep this one competitive until the final moments.

On the year the Kadets averaged 69 PPG, while allowing 82.1.

East Tennessee State averaged 70.2 PPG, while allowing 69.3. 

Victories when they did come for the Bucs, were always tight. 

They lost 82-69 at East Tennessee State on February 21st, but I'm expecting an even tighter battle here during the tournament.

It's difficult to beat a team three times in one year. I'm not predicting an outright upset, but I do think this will be a much tougher fight for the Bucs than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.

So grab the points, the play is indeed on VMI.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the UNDER Washington/Washington State.

These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but all signs point to more of a defensive affair this time around in my opinion.

These teams played on February 3rd and Washington State won 90-87 in overtime, and the total flew well OVER the posted number of 149 in that one.

Suffice to say, I'm not expecting OT again here in the rematch. Also note that Washington has seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of its last 11 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference home loss as a dog vs. an opponent.

Washington has been trading wins and losses over its last five games. It's off an 82-75 loss at home to USC as a 4.5-point favorite, which is significant to note here, as the Huskies have in fact seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of their last ten after a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite.

With each team doubling down on the defensive end like I suspect, everything does indeed point to the UNDER as the correct call as far as the total is concerned in my opinion.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* MW TOM on the UNDER Fresno State/New Mexico.

This one sets up well from a situational stand point to more of a defensive affair, rather than a wide-open shootout.

Fresno State is a huge dog here at the end of the season on the road. It's just 3-8 away from friendly confines. It's lost five straight. That's significant to note though, as the Bulldogs have seen the total dip below the number in eight of their last 12 after five or more SU losses in a row.

The Lobos are 12-3 at home. They've lost two straight high-scoring contest though, most recently falling 89-79 at Boise State. With the home side doubling down on the defensive end like I suspect, everything points to this total staying well UNDER the number once the final horn blares.

Good luck, NP

This is my 10* MISSOURI VALLEY TOURNEY GAME OF YEAR on SIU Edwardsville.

These teams went 1-1 in the season series, with each side winning and covering at home. The Cougars were 8-point home favorites and they won 67-58, while Eastern Illinois was a two-point dog that won outright at home 84-79 most recently on February 27th.

With the setback fresh on their minds, I definitely expect the Cougars to take advantage of this neutral court situation, and to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish.

Note as well that SIU Edwardsville is in fact 7-3 ATS in its last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference road loss as a favorite vs. an opponent.

Lay the points, the play is SIU EDWARDSVILLE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* MAC GOY on Toledo.

Toledo is 18-11, including 7-5 on the road, while Miami Ohio is 15-14 overall, including 9-4 at home. 

The Rockets broke a two-game slide with an 85-79 win at Buffalo, but it was their third straight ATS loss. That however is very significant to note, because Toledo is 7-3 ATS in its last ten after three or more ATS losses in a row.

It beat Miami Ohio 68-64 back on January 5th, but it did not come close to covering the 11.5-point spread.

Tonight's spread is much more manageable here, despite being on the road. 

Miami Ohio has won three straight, both SU and ATS after a 52-37 victory at EMU last time out. Note though that the RedHawks are just 1-4 ATS in their last five after three or more SU/ATS victories in a row.

EMU is 12-17. Bowling Green is 17-12. CMU is 16-13. I respect what Miami Ohio has done over the last three weeks, but I think this is just a bad matchup for the home side.

Look for TOLEDO to comfortably pull away for the win and cover here on Tuesday night.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BIG 12 TOM on the UNDER Texas/Baylor.

Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but all signs finally point to more of a defensive affair here in my opinion on Monday between Texas and Baylor.

The Longhorns are 19-10 overall, but just 4-5 on the road, while Baylor is 21-8 overall, including 14-2 at home.

The Longhorns have won two straight after pulling away for the 81-65 win over Oklahoma State, and they've also seen the total go OVER in three in a row. Note though that Oklahoma State has seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of its last 12 after playing to three or more straight OVERs in a row.

Baylor plays with revenge after a 75-73 loss at Texas back in January, and note that the Bears have seen the total go "under" the posted number in eight of their last 12 in trying to avenge a SU conference road loss vs. an opponent.

The overall situation that each team finds itself in coming into this contest, combined with the above-listed O/U trends does indeed make the UNDER the correct call here in the rematch between these rivals.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* PAC 12 TOM on the UNDER Stanford/Colorado.

Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but the overall situation that each finds itself coming into this one, combined with some strong supporting O/U ATS stats, does indeed make this total a little high.

The Cardinal are 12-16 overall, including 3-7 on the road, while the Buffs are 19-9 overall, including 15-1 at home.

Stanford is off five straight SU/ATS losses, but that's significant to note here as the Cardinal have in fact seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of their last 11 after playing to five or more SU/ATS losses in a row.

Colorado has seen the total eclipse the posted number in three straight after its 88-78 win over Cal. Note though that the Buffs have seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of their last ten after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row.

For all the reasons listed above, the play is indeed on the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BIG TEN TOW on the UNDER Illinois/Wisconsin.

These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but all signs finally point to more of a defensive affair here in my opinion in this early afternoon Big Ten game.

Illinois is coming off a 105-97 home win over Minnesota. The Illini are 21-7. 

Wisconsin fell 74-70 at Indiana on Tuesday, its fifth straight road loss. But a little "home cooking" is just what the doctor ordered in my opinion.

The Badgers are 13-2 at home and Illinois won't be able to simply "look past" its opponent this afternoon.

In what I anticipate will be a much tighter game than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe, I'm indeed playing the UNDER in this one.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* REVENGE BK on UL Lafayette.

Throughout the month of March, my writeups will be more succinct due to the fact that I plan on releasing more plays, and don't have as much time as I do normally.

Revenge is the motivating driver behind this pick. 

Southern Miss is 16-14, but just 5-8 on the road. UL Lafayette is 17-13, including 10-3 at home. 

After four straight losses, the Cajuns come out fired up here to avenge an 82-71 loss to Southern Miss in late February, and note that UL Lafayette is in fact 4-1 ATS in its last five in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference road loss as a favorite vs. an opponent.

Lay the points, the play is UL LAFAYETTE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* REVENGE BK on Tulane.

Here's a great situational play on the home side.

UAB is 17-9, including 5-4 on the road, while Tulane is 13-12 overall, including 10-4 at home.

UAB had its three-game win streak snapped in a 94-71 loss at home to Rice as an 11-point favorite and I think it's now ripe for another letdown here vs. the revenge-minded home side.

As the Green Wave does indeed play with revenge after an 83-69 loss at UAB as two-point dogs back in January, and note that Tulane is in fact 7-3 ATS in its last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss vs. an opponent. 

In my opinion, everything points to a rout for the home side. Lay the points, the play is TULANE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* OHIO VALLEY GOY on Lindenwood.

While I'm stopping short in calling for an outright victory, I do love the way this one sets up for the home side from a situational stand-point.

UALR is the better team. It's 17-11 overall, while Lindenwood is only 8-20. 

The Rams though are just 5-6 on the road. UALR comes in complacent after six straight victories in my opinion, especially with back-to-back upcoming home games to close out the season, starting with 16-12 Tennessee State mid-week.

The Lions have lost six straight, both SU and ATS, but despite a 106-82 loss to Tennessee Martin as a nine-point dog last time out, Lindewood is still 8-4 ATS in its last 12 after five or more SU/ATS losses in a row.

The Lions also play with revenge after an 80-66 loss at UALR as 9.5-point dogs, and note that Lindenwood is in fact 3-1 ATS in its last four in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference road loss vs. an opponent.

For all the reasons listed above, the play is LINDENWOOD.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BIG 12 GOY on Oklahoma.

Oklahoma is 18-8 overall, but just 2-4 on the road, while Oklahoma State is 12-14 overall, including 10-5 at home. 

The Sooners are off back-to-back losses, both as dogs, but now will look to bounce back here and get back on track.

Oklahoma though is 7-3 ATS in its last ten after three or more ATS losses in a row.

The Sooners won this game 66-62 as 11-point favorites earlier in the month, so they won't be taking the Cowboys lightly, who I believe look primed for a letdown here after back-to-back victories, both as an underdog. 

The Cowboys are now getting a little TOO much respect here and I look for the "better" and "hungrier" visiting side to not only win this game, but to do so in blowout fashion.

Lay the points, the play is on OKLAHOMA.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* MAC TOY on the OVER Kent/Akron.

This one sets up really well to be a wide-open offensive battle finally, between two teams that have been involved in several defensive affairs of late.

Kent State is just 13-13 overall. It's off a 63-57 loss at Ohio, and note that the Flashes have in fact seen the total go OVER the number in eight of their last 12 off a SU/ATS conference road loss in which they were held to 59 or fewer points in.

Kent also plays with revenge after a 77-71 loss at home to the Zips. I think we'll see s aimilar final combined score in this one as well, or even higher.

Akron is 19-7 and No. 1 in the MAC. After a 72-64 loss at Toledo last time out though (the Zips eighth straight UNDER in a row,) note that they have in fact seen the total eclipse the posted number in seven of their last ten off a SU/ATS conference road loss as an underdog.

The overall situation that each team finds itself coming into this one, combined with the above listed numbers/trends, does indeed make the OVER the correct call as far as the total is concerned in this one in my opinion.

This number is low, the play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* SOUTHERN TOY on the OVER VMI/East Tennessee State.

These two teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but I say the stage is now set for a much higher-scoring "shootout" here finally on Friday night.

VMI is just 4-23, including 0-13 on the road. East Tennessee State on the other hand is 13-14 overall, including 8-4 at home.

The Buccaneers have lost three straight, but note that East Tennessee State has in fact seen the total go OVER the number in four of its last five after three or more straight losses in a row.

VMI plays with revenge nearly pulling off the epic upset at home over the Bucs, as the Cadets fell 74-73 as 10.5-point favorites.

Note though that VMI has seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of its last 12 in trying to avenge a conference home loss vs. an opponent.

I'm expecting another competitive battle, but one that's more wide-open and ultimately higher-scoring once the final horn sounds.

This number is low in my opinion, so the play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* TOP REVENGE PLAY on BYU.

Revenge is a powerful motivating factor. Or it can be. It can also be overrated at times.

But not in this case in my opinion. Baylor is 19-6 SU, but just 3-3 on the road.

BYU is 18-7 overall, including 13-2 at home. The Cougars had their two game win streak snapped last time out in a 93-83 loss at Oklahoma State as 6-point favorites. They've now lost four straight against the spread. 

But note that BYU is still 8-4 ATS in its last 12 after three or more ATS losses in a row.

And the Cougars do indeed play with revenge after falling 81-73 at Baylor as 4.5-point dogs back in January, and note that BYU is 7-3 ATS in its last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference road loss vs. an opponent.

Baylor has won two in a row SU and three straight ATS, but note that the Bears are just 4-6 ATS in their last ten after three or more ATS victories in a row. 

Will Baylor get caught "looking ahead" to its next game at home vs. No. 1 Houston in a couple of days? The answer is: very possibly!

There are many significant factors working in favor of the REVENGE-minded home side today. 

Lay the points, the play is BYU.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* SITUATIONAL TOP TOTAL on the UNDER Evansville/Illinois State.

Just a great overall situational play here. 

Evansville is 15-11, but only 4-8 on the road, while Illinois State is just 12-14 overall, but 7-6 in front of the home town crowd. 

The Purple Aces will be eager to stop a two-game slide. They held on for the 58-54 upset win as two-point dogs back in late January and I'm anticipating another tight, and lower-scoring UNDER here as well.

This nubmer is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BK on Tulane.

While I clearly believe the outright win is a very distinct possibility, my official call will be to grab as many points as you can here with the visiting side.

Tulane is 13-11, including 2-5 on the road, while ECU is 13-12, including 10-7 at home.

Tulane comes in off back-to-back losses, both as a dog. These teams haven't played since last year, and Tulane managed to pull off the 81-78 SU upset victory as a 12.5-point underdog.

ECU is off B2B victories, both as a favorite. Note though that the Pirates are just 3-6 ATS in their last nine after three or more ATS victories in a row.

Clearly, with a spread like this the oddsmakers believe these teams are evenly matched. And they are this year. But the overall situation, combined with the trends, favors the visitors.

Grab the points, the play is TULANE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* SOUTHERN GOM on Furman.

I base my picks on many different things. This particular one is essentially based around the "revenge factor."

Chattanooga is 18-8, including 8-5 on the road, while Furman is 14-12, but 10-2 at home. 

The Paladins play with revenge after a 73-58 loss at Chattanooga at the start of January, and note that Furman has indeed responded very well in this spot for bettors, going 8-2 (80%) ATS in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference road loss vs. an opponent. 

Chattanooga has indeed won three straight, but note that the Mocs are just 1-3 ATS in their last four after three or more SU victories in a row.

Revenge is a powerful motivating factor and it'll prove to be the difference-maker in this one once the final horn blares.

Lay the points, the play is FURMAN.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* PAC 12 TOW on the UNDER Arizona State/Arizona.

These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but all signs finally point to much more of a defensive battle in my opinion. This is just a great "situational" based pick.

Arizona State is 13-12 overall, including only 3-5 on the road, while Arizona State is 19-5 overall, including 12-0 at home. 

Steering clear of this massive spread for each side, instead anticipating the defensive battle. ASU has won two straight SU, three straight ATS and it's seen the total go OVER in three straight. But note that the Sun Devils have seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row.

Arizona has won five straight. Its last two have flown OVER the number. However, note that the Wildcats have seen the total dip below the posted number in four of their last five after five or more SU victories in a row.

With 19-6 Washington State coming to town next, the Wildcats reserve some fueld and "control" the pace of this one, which will lead to it ultimatley staying UNDER the number once it's all said and done.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* MAAC TOY on the UNDER Mount St. Mary's/Rider.

These two hungry sides have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but all signs finally point to more of a defensive affair here on Friday in my opinion. 

Mount St. Mary's is 11-13, including 4-10 on the road, while Rider is 8-16, including 5-4 at home.

Mount St. Mary's has won four straight. It's seen the total go OVER in three straight, but note that the Mountaineers have seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of their last ten after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row.

Mount St. Mary's plays with revenge as well after a 66-62 home loss to Rider as a 4.5-point favorite back in January. I expect a similar hard-fought battle here.

Rider has lost three straight. It's seen the total go OVER in five straight, but note that the Broncs have seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of their last 12 after playing to five or more straigth OVERS in a row.

A great situational play here on the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* CAA TOY on the UNDER Charleston/Northeastern.

These two conference opponents have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but all signs finally point to much more of a defensive battle here on Thursday in my opinion.

Charleston is 18-7 after three straight victories. It's seen the total go OVER in three of its last four. 

Northeastern is 10-15. After losing four straight, the Huskies have now won two in a row, most recently a 77-65 victory over Monmouth here last time out. Northeastern has seen the total go OVER in four of its last five.

With a tough game at Hofstra up next, the home side will look to duplicate its winning game-plan from its most recent victory and double-down defensively here. The last thing the home side can do is turn this into a track meet and expect to "hang" with Charleston.

The Cougars have lowly William and Mary at home up next, as they've hit a favorable part of their schedule.

In what I anticipate will be a much more methodical pace than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe, the play here for sure is on the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BIG TEN GOY on Penn State.

Revenge. It's a powerful motivating factor, or it can potentially be a powerful motivating factor. Both for the teams actually playing the game, and also for handicappers in their arsenal as far as looking at motivation etc when it comes to a matchup. 

Sometimes the "revenge factor" can be wildly over-rated, but other times it definitely is something that can't be ignored. And that's the case with this game here on Wednesday in my opinion.

Michigan State hammered Penn State 92-61 on January 4th, with Malike Hall going for a career-high 24 points, but now it's time for the Nittany Lions to respond.

And they've actually done really well in this spot for bettors going 7-3 against the spread in their last ten in trying to avenge a straight up and against the spread conference road loss in which they were held to 69 or fewer points in.

The difference in the first game was at the three-point line, as the Spartans went 10 of 21 from range, while the Nittany Lions were just 3 of 29. 

Now back at home, I think those big discrepancies will correct themselves here for Penn State.

Michigan State is off an 88-80 upset of then No. 10 Illinois and has won four of its last five, which really sort of sets this up as a potential letdown spot in my opinion, especially with a big rivalry game at Michigan up next for the Spartans.

Letdown + look-ahead = TRAP GAME!

Penn State is looking to get back on track here as it had won three straight before its most recent 68-63 loss to Northwestern. 

While I do think an outright victory is possible, my official call will be to grab as many points as you can with PENN STATE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* ACC GOY on BC.

As primarily a "situational" handicapper, this one falls right into my "wheel-house." 

Louisville is just 8-16 overall, including only 1-7 on the road, while BC is 13-10 overall, including 8-4 at home.

The Cardinals have been alternating wins/losses over their last four games and off a 79-67 home win over Georgia Tech last time out, I expect this pattern to continue.

BC has dropped two in a row, but SU and ATS. Both against really good teams, falling 63-62 here to FSU as a four-point fav, before losing 80-65 at Duke as a 13-point dog last time out.

These teams last met on March 7th in the postseason, and the Eagles posted the convincing 80-62 victory, and I fully expect a similar final lop-sided beatdown in this one as well.

These teams meet in Louisville to finish off the season. Home court advantage is going to be the difference-maker in the end as I like the more "in form" home side to pull away down the strech for the comfortable win and cover.

The play is BOSTON COLLEGE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BIG WEST GOM on UC Riverside.

While I do think an outright victory is possible, in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can.

UC Irvine is 18-6, including just 6-6 on the road, while UC Riverside is only 9-15 overall, but 8-3 at home.

Home floor advantage definitely comes into play here. 

The Anteaters have won five straight SU and three straight ATS, but note that UC Irvine is in fact a poor 3-7 ATS in its last ten after three or more ATS victories in a row. 

UC Riverside snapped a three-game slide with a 65-63 win over CSU Baksersfield last time out, but it's lost three straight. That's also significant for us to take note of here as the Highlanders are 4-1 ATS in their last five after three or more ATS setbacks in a row.

While I'll stop short in calling for the outright upset, all signs point to a much tighter battle than what this spread is suggesting in my opinion.

Grab the points, the play is UC RIVERSIDE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BIG TEN ULTIMATE on the OVER Wisconsin/Rutgers.

This game has "over" written ALL over it!

Wisconsin is 15-7, but just 3-5 on the road, while Rutgers is 12-10, including 9-3 at home.

The Badgers had played to three straight OVERS before their most recent 72-68 loss at Michigan as 8.5-point favorites, and note that Wisconsin has in fact seen the total go OVER the number in eight of its last 11 off a SU/ATS conference road loss as a favorite.

Rutgers has won two straight and it's seen the total go UNDER in four straight, most recently holding for a 56-53 low-scoring victory at Maryland as a 7.5-point dog, but note that the Scarlet Knights have seen the total eclipse the posted number in seven of their last ten off a SU/ATS conference road win as an underdog.

With each team pushing the pace like we suspect, all signs point to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* MW GOM on San Jose State.

I'm not calling for an outright win or anything, but everything points to a much tighter battle than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe in my opinion. 

San Jose State is 8-15, including only 1-8 on the road, while CSU is 18-5, including 12-1 at home.

After six straight SU losses and five straight ATS losses in a row, the visitors come in "under the radar" here and are a bit undervalued. In fact, note that the Spartans have in fact performed well in this spot for bettors by going 7-3 ATS in their last ten after five or more ATS losses in a row.

Clearly, the Rams are the better team as they enter off three straight SU/ATS victories in a row. That's also significant for us to take note of though as CSU is just 4-7 ATS in its last 11 after three or more SU/ATS victories in a row. 

With a game at 18-5 SDSU after this, not only does this set up as a natural "letdown" spot for the home side, but also a "look-ahead." 

Add those two factors together and you get "TRAP GAME!" 

As stated off the top, no outright, but much closer than expected. Grab the points, the play is SJSU.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* PAC 12 TOM on the UNDER Washington/Oregon.

Definitely love the way this one sets up to be a lower-scoring "under," rather than a high-scoring "shootout." 

As primarily a "situational" handicapper, this one falls right into my wheelhouse. 

The Huskies are 12-10 overall, including just 2-4 on the road, while the Ducks are 15-7 overall, including a near-perfect 10-1 at home.

Oregon doesn't blow teams out of the water though in averaging 77.5 PPG. The Ducks concede 72.6, but they're even better at home.

The Huskies though do play with revenge after the 76-74 home loss to Oregon as 4.5-point favorites back at the start of January, but note that Washington has in fact seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of its last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent.

The re-match is primed to be a MUCH tighter affair in my opinion, so the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* SWAC GOY on Jackson State.

Just take Jackson State on the money-line in this one.

Southern is the better team, but this sets up really well for the home side. Southern is 12-9, but just 4-9 on the road.

Jackson State is 8-13, but 2-1 at home. The Jaguars are off three straight SU/ATS victories, but note that Southern is in fact just 1-4 ATS in its last five after three or more SU/ATS wins in a row.

The Jaguars posted the 71-70 win at Alcorn State as 2-point dogs last time out, but note as well that Southern is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten off a SU/ATS conference road win as an underdog.

Jackson State has lost three straight SU/ATS after its most recent 70-62 loss to Grambling as a 2.5-point favorite. Note though that the Tigers have responded extremely well in this spot for bettors by going 4-1 ATS in their last five following three or more straight SU/ATS losses in a row.

With back-to-back upcoming road games, tonight's contest takes on added importance for the home side, which lost this game 73-62 last year.

All in all, fantastic value here on the hungrier home side.

Lay the price, the play is JACKSON STATE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AAC GOM on SMU.

UAB is 14-7 overall, including 4-3 on the road, while SMU is 14-6, including 10-2 at home. 

Off an 82-79 OT win at North Texas as a six-point dog though, all signs point to UAB suffering a predictable letdown here. In fact, note that the Blazers are just 3-7 ATS in their last ten following a SU/ATS conference road win as an underdog.

And with a home game vs. Conference leading FAU up next, not only does this potentially set up as a letdown spot for the visitors, but also a "look ahead" spot. Add those two factors together and you get "TRAP GAME." 

SMU broke a two-game slide with an 80-76 win over Tulane here last time out. The Mustangs have lost three straight ATS, but that's also signficant to note as SMU is in fact 8-4 ATS in its last 12 after three or more straight ATS losses in a row.

Look for SMU to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish and to easily pull away for the win and cover before the final horn sounds.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BIG TEN TOW on the UNDER Purdue/Wisconsin.

These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but I'm anticipating much more of a defensive affair here on Sunday finally.

Purdue is 20-2, including 4-2 on the road, while Wisconsin is 15-5, inculding 11-1 at home. The Badgers will look to control the pace of this one from the outset.

The Boilermakers have won six straight, but I'm expecting fatigue to finally be a factor here as well after their most recent 105-96 OT win over Northwestern.

Wisconsin just had its three-game win streak snapped in an 80-72 OT loss at Nebraska as a one-point fav, but note that the Badgers have seen the total go UNDER the number in four of their last five after a SU/ATS conference road loss as a favorite.

With each team doubling-down on the defensive end like I expect, the UNDER is indeed the correct call as far as the total is concerned in my opinion.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* MW TOM on the UNDER CSU/Fresno State.

Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but the overall situation that each finds itself coming into this one, combined with the numbers/trends all point to this contest being much more of a defensive affair.

Colorado State is 16-5, but only 2-4 on the road, while Fresno State is just 9-11, but 7-4 at home.

The Rams have seen the total go OVER the number in four of their last five after pulling away for a 79-71 win over SDSU last time out. But with a home game vs. Boise State mid week, I believe the visitors will get caught looking ahead in the second half and start saving some gas for that important contest. 

Fresno State has lost three of its last five games after a 78-69 setback at UNLV last time out. That's five straight OVERS for the Bulldogs, but note that Fresno State has in fact seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of its last 12 after playing to five or more straight OVERS in a row.

This is an important game for both teams and I'm expecting this sense of competition to translate into a very defensive affair once it's all said and done.

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* PAC 12 TOY on the UNDER Washington State/Washington.

These two teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but the overall situation that each finds itself coming into this one, combined with the numbers/trends does indeed make the UNDER the correct call as far as the total is concerned in our opinion.

Washington State is 15-6, but just 2-3 on the road, while Washington is 12-9, but 8-3 at home.

The Cougars have won five of their last six after taking down Colorado 78-69 at home in their last matchup. With another tough game at Oregon State, followed by a game at Oregon though, I think the visitors get caught looking ahead here in the second half. I think the visitors will double down defensively here to kick off this difficult and important road trip.

Washington broke a two-game slide with a 98-73 win over Utah here last time out. Note though that the Huskies have seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of their last ten after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row.

A bit of a shortened analysis here today, but in my estimation, the overall situation that each team finds itself in coming into this contest, combined with these important ATS O/U trends does indeed make the UNDER the correct call in this PAC 12 matchup on Saturday night.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* MOUNTAINWEST TOM on the OVER SJSU/Nevada.

These teams have both been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but all signs finally point to more of a wide-open offensive affair here between these conference rivals on Friday night in my opinion.

SJSU is 8-13 overall, including only 1-7 on the road, while Nevada is 16-5 overall, including 10-1 at home.

The Wolfpack won't be "looking past" this opportunity, as they've now lost four of their last five following their most recent 89-55 setback at New Mexico as 8.5-point dogs.

Note though that Nevada has seen the total OVER the number in eight of its last 11 off a SU/ATS conference road loss in which it was held to 55 or fewer points in.

Somehow the Spartans won the last matchup as well between the clubs 81-77 in OT as four-point dogs last March. Look for this to add fuel to the fire as well for the home side.

Off four straight losses, SJSU won't be lacking for motivation here as it tries to pull off another upset.

I'm expecting a faster-paced affair, one that does indeed fly well OVER the posted number before the final buzzer sounds.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* WAC GOM on UT Arlington.

While I clearly believe UT Arlington will win this game outright, my official call will be to grab as many points as you can.

This is a great situational play.

UT Arlington is 9-11 overall, including a lop-sided 0-9 on the road, while Southern Utah is only 8-12 overall, but 5-3 at home.

These teams are clearly very evenly matched, but this one sets up great for the visitors in my opinion to snap their road futility streak.

The Mavericks are off back-to-back losses, but note that they're 6-2 ATS in their last eight after three or more straight ATS setbacks in a row.

Southern Utah is 3-2 in its last five SU, but 5-0 ATS. Note though that the Thunderbirds are a sub-par 2-6 ATS in their last eight after five or more straight ATS victories in a row.

Look for the "hungrier" visiting side to deliver the goods, the play is indeed on UT ARLINGTON.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AMERICA EAST TOTAL OF MONTH on the OVER NJIT/Binghamton.

This one is a great situational play.

NJIT is 5-14 overall, including 2-8 on the road, while Binghampton is 9-10 overall, including 6-2 at home.

The Highlanders snapped a six-game losing streak with a 75-74 upset win at UMBC last time out. They've seen the total now go UNDER the number in seven straight games. That fact though has only helped in driving tonight's total a little lower than it normally would/should be in my opinion, and now off a big upset road win, look for NJIT to come in fired up here and to push the pace from the outset.

Binghamton snapped a five-game slide with a 51-50 win over Maine last time out. The Bearcats have seen the total go UNDER in three straight, but note that Binghamton has in fact seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of its last 11 after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row.

In my opinion, all signs do indeed point to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* MW GOM on Boise State.

While I'm definitely NOT calling for an outright upset, I do think this spread is definitely MUCH too large, as I expect the hungry visiting side to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch.

Boise State is 14-6 overall, including 3-1 on the road, while New Mexico is 18-3 overall, including 11-0 at home.

The Broncos are off a 90-84 OT home loss to Utah State as 2.5-point favorites, which is significant for us to take note of here, as Boise Stae is in fact 7-3 ATS in its last ten off a SU/ATS conference home loss as a favorite.

New Mexico is off five straight SU/ATS victories after its most recent 89-55 home win here over Nevada, but note that the Lobos are just 1-4 ATS in their last five after five or more SU/ATS victories in a row.

The bottom line here is that I feel this will be a competitive game and this home spread is absolutely inflated due to public perception.

As stated off the top, no outright upset, but definitely A LOT closer than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.

Grab the points, the play is BOISE STATE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* SEC TOTAL OF YEAR on the OVER Mississippi State/Mississippi.

I'm expecting a wide-open affair between these SEC rivals, and because of that, all signs point to this total eclipsing the posted number sooner, rather than later.

Mississippi State is 14-6 overall, but 0-4 on the road. 

Ole Miss is 17-3 overall, including 12-0 at home.

The Bulldogs have been trading wins and losses over their last fouru games. They're off a 64-58 win over Auburn as three-point dogs, which is signficant to take note of, as Mississippi State has in fact seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of its last ten off a SU/ATS conference home win as an underdog. The Bulldogs have also seen the total go UNDER in three straight, but note that they've seen the total eclipse the posted number in three of their last four after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row.

The Runnin Rebels have seen the total go UNDER in three straight as well after their most recent 71-68 road win at Texas A&M as 8-point underdogs, and note that Ole Miss has seen the total go OVER the number in eight of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row.

With each team pushing the pace like I anticipate, the play is indeed on the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* MISSOURI VALLEY TOW on the OVER Illinois State/Murray State.

These teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but everything finally points to much more of a wide-open affair here in my opinion.

I like betting on motivated teams when I bet "overs." Illinois State is 10-11, including 2-5 on the road, while Murray State is 8-13, including 5-6 at home.

These are two teams in need of a win here.

The Redbirds have seen the total go UNDER in six straight now after their most recent 58-54 loss at Evansville, but note that Illinois State has in fact seen the total eclipse the posted number in seven of its last ten after a SU/ATS conference road loss as a favorite in which it was held to 55 or fewer points in.

Murray State has seen the total go UNDER in seven straight games after its most recent 60-58 loss to Southern Illinois as a 3.5-point favorite. But note that the Racers have seen the total go OVER the number in four of their last five off a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite.

With both teams pushing the pace like I anticipate, everything points to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* UNDERDOG OF THE MONTH on Vanderbilt.

No outright here, but much closer than expected in my opinion.

Tennessee is 14-4 and clearly the better team, but it's just 2-2 in true road games.

Vanderbilt is 5-13, but a more respectable 5-6 at home.

Tennesseee is off three straight SU/ATS wins in a row, but note that the Vols are in fact just 3-6 ATS in their last nine after three or more SU/ATS victories in a row. With a home game vs. 16-3 South Carolina up next, the visitors are going to get caught looking ahead here and take the foot off the gas down the stretch.

The Vols won this game 66-65 as ten-point dogs last year, and while I'm not calling for the oturight upset this time around, everything is definitely set up to be another tight and competitive battle this time around as well.

Off five straight SU losses, I think the Commodores are now undervalued here at home.

Grab the points, thep lay is VANDERBILT.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* MAC TOW on the UNDER Bowling Green/Toledo.

These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but all signs finally point to much more of a defensive affar here this afternoon in my opinion.

Bowling Green is 14-5 overall, including 3-2 on the road, while Toldeo is 12-7, and 7-2 at home.

The Green Falcons had their four-game win streak come to an end last time out, falling 90-84 in OT at home to Kent as one-point favorites, and note that Bowling Green has in fact seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of its last 11 off a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite.

Toldedo had seen the total go UNDER in three straight before its most recent 89-73 win at NIU, but with the home side doubling down defensively like I expect here at home this afternoon, I do indeed feel this number is a bit TOO high here.

The play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* MID-MAJOR MAULING on Marist.

The overall situation that each team finds itself coming into this one, combined with the numbers/trends make the visiting side the correct call here in my opinion and while I do think an outright victory is possible, the official call will be to grab as many points as you can.

Marist is 9-7 and Niagara is 9-9. The Red Foxes are 4-5 on the road, while the Purple Eagles are 3-5 at home.

Marist has been trading wins/losses over its last four games. It beat Niagara 61-52 as a two-point dog in this game at home last year. 

Niagara has won two straight on the road as an underdog, but now back here at home, I think the Purple Eagles are the ones overvalued here.

The bottom line here is that these evenly matched teams will take this one right down to the wire and whichever side has its hands on the ball last is likely going to be the victor.

Because of that, I'm grabbing the points with MARIST.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* WEST COAST GOY on Pacific.

I'm not predicting an outright win here or anything obviously, but I do think this is WAY too many points for the home side to be giving up.

Pacific is 6-14, including just 1-8 on the road, while Saint Mary's is 14-6, including 8-3 at home. The Gaels have hit a favorable part of their schedule as well. 

Winning though at times, has a way of leading to complacency, while losing can lead to motivation.

Pacific has lost five straight, but note that the Tigers are 7-3 ATS in their last ten after five or more SU losses in a row.

Pacific has lost four straight conference matchups, but did play the Dons to OT in their first conference matchup. 

But look for the home side to take the foot off the gas in a big way as the game comes down the stretch and for the the visiting side to keep it respectable with a decent effort down the stretch.

As stated off the top, I'm not predicting an outright victory, but I do think this is a huge spread. So grab the points, the play is indeed on PACIFIC.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BLOOD-BATH on Colorado State.

UNLV is 9-7 overall, including 2-1 on the road, while Colorado State is 14-3, including 9-1 at home. 

The Runnin Rebels are 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS in their last three after a 68-68 upset road win at Boise State last time out. Note though that UNLV is in fact just 1-3 ATS in its last four after three or more ATS victories in a row.

Colorado State snapped a two-game slide with a tighter-than-expected 78-69 OT win over Air Force in their most recent action. The Rams have now lost three straight ATS, but note that CSU is in fact a wallet-expanding 7-2 ATS in its last nine after three or more ATS losses in a row.

Look for CSU to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish and lay the point with confidence.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BIG SKY GOY on Weber State.

I'm expecting the home side to not only win this game, but to do so in blowout fashion.

Eastern Washington is 9-7 overall, but ust 4-7 on the road. Weber State is 11-6 overall, including 7-0 at home. 

The Wildcats won't be taking anything for granted here though after back-to-back upset losses as favorites on the road. They also play with revenge after falling to EWU 89-82 as 1-point favs in this contest last year. 

Eastern Washington has been on a role of late, winning five straight SU and nine straight ATS, but note that the Eagles are in fact just 3-6 ATS in their last nine after five or more SU victories in a row.

The general betting public is all over the visitors here as well with nearly 70% of the early money on Eastern Washington.

We're going contrarian here with this great "situational" play.

The play is WEBER STATE.

Good luck, NP

This is a BIG 12 TOY on the OVER Iowa State/BYU.

Both teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but all signs finally point to more of a defensive affair here between Iowa State and BYU.

Both teams are 13-3 and I'm expecting a very competitive, but higher-scoring battle in this one.

Iowa State has won two straight after a 71-63 loss to Oklahoma. It's seen the total go UNDER in three straight, but note that the Cyclones have in fact seen the total go OVER the number in seven of their last ten after playing to three or more straight UNDERs in a row.

BYU broke a two-game slide with a 63-58 win at UCF last time out. The Cougars have also seen the total go UNDER in three straight, but note that BYU has seen the total go OVER the number in three of its last four after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. 

The Cougars have also seen the total go OVER the number in eight of its last 12 off a conference road win in which it held its opponent to 59 or fewer points in.

With each team pushing the pace like I expect, all signs do indeed point to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* MISSOURI VALLEY TOY on the OVER Northern Iowa/Murray State.

These teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but all signs finally point to more of an offensive affair this time around in my opinion.

Northern Iowa is 8-8, but just 2-4 on the road, while Murray State is only 7-9, but 5-3 at home.

The Panthers have won five of their last six and despite a 67-59 win over UIC last time out, which saw them see the total UNDER the number for a fourth straight time, note that Northern Iowa has seen the total go OVER still in eight of its last 12 after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row.

Murray State has won four straight, both SU and ATS and it's seen the total go UNDER in two straight. UNI won this game 75-67 last year and I'm expecting an even higher-scoring affair this time around.

All signs point to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* SITUATIONAL BLOWOUT on Colorado.

USC is 8-8, including just 1-3 on the road, while Colorado is 11-5, including 9-0 at home.

USC is off a 72-64 loss to Washington State as a six-point favorite, and I think it'll struggle to keep pace with the Buffs down the stretch.

Colorado has now lost three straight SU/ATS conference road contests, but note that the Buffs are 7-3 ATS in their last ten after three or more straight SU/ATS losses in a row.

Lay the number and expect a rout. The play is COLORADO.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BIG WEST GOY on Cal Poly Slo.

This one sets up well from a situational stand point for the home side.

UC San Diego 10-6, including 3-3 on the road, while Cal Poly Slo is 4-13, including 3-4 at home.

After four SU victories and five straight ATS wins though, I think the visiting side is now overvalued here. Especially with a road game at No. 1 UCI this coming week. This is a classic letdown + look-ahead = TRAP GAME. 

The Mustangs have lost five straight after a 71-56 setback at UCRV, but note that Cal Poly Slo is in fact a near-perfect 4-1 ATS in its last five after five or more SU losses in a row.

I'm not predicting an outright upset or anything, but I do expect the home side to go down fighting until the final horn.

Grab the points, the play is CAL POLY SLO.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* WEST COAST TOY on the UNDER San Francisco/San Diego.

The overall situation in this one points to a much tighter and ultimately lower-scoring affair in this one in my opinion.

San Francisco is 12-4 and San Diego is 10-7. The Dons are just 2-2 on the road though, while the Toreros are 9-2 at home. 

San Diego is just 1-2 SU in its last three and it's now seen the total go OVER in three straight after a 101-74 loss at Gonzaga.

That's important for us as bettors to take note of though, becuase the Toreros have in fact seen the total UNDER the number in seven of their last ten after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row. 

San Francisco has won four straight and it's seen the total go OVER in four straight as well. Despite its 92-88 OT road win as a 19.5-point favorite at Pacific last time out flying OVER the number, note that the Dons have still seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row.

San Fran won't want to be caught "off guard" here on the road like that again and will be looking to "double down" defensively after that "near scare" last time out.

When you add up all of the above factors, everything points to this one staying UNDER the number once it's all said and done.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* PAC 12 GOY on Washington State.

While I do think an outright win is a possibility, in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can in a contest that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last.

Washington State is 10-5 and USC is 8-7. The Cougars though have now lost four straight ATS after their most recent 89-84 loss to Oregon as a 2.5-point favorite. That's now back-to-back conference losses as a favorite and despite the last setback though, note that WSU is still 8-4 ATS in its last 12 after three or more straight ATS losses in a row. 

USC is coming off back-to-back conference home wins over Cal and Stanford. The Trojans were big favorites in each and covered, but now I feel they're getting a little TOO much respect here.

Honestly the way these teams matchup, I feel that the visitors have a legitimate shot at bouncing back and winning this one outright, while at the same time, everything now points to a classic letdown in opinion for the home side.

Grab the points, the play is indeed on WASHINGTON STATE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* MW GOY on Air Force.

With over 75% of the early public money on the 14-1 home side, me and my clients are going to go the other way and grab the 7-6 Air Force Falcons, who are 3-1 on the road. Yes, Nevada is 8-0 at home, but I still think this is WAY too many points for the Wolfpack to have to cover here.

With 10-4 Boise State coming to town this weekend, will Nevada get caught "looking ahead?!" It very well could. The possibility is there for sure anyways.

No such luxury for Air Force though, which has lost four straight SU/ATS. That however is significant to note here as despite falling 88-60 to Utah State last time out, the Falcons are still 8-4 ATS in their last 12 after three or more straight SU/ATS setbacks in a row.

The conditions are all correct here for a much tighter battle than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.

Grab the points, the play is AIR FORCE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* SOUTHLAND TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER McNeese State/Northwestern State.

This is a great situational play. McNeese State and Northwestern State have both been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I'm finally anticipating more of a defensive battle here on Monday night.

McNeese State is 12-2, and Northwestern State is 2-12. The Cowboys are 4-2 on the road, while the Demons are 2-2 at home.

McNeese State has won seven in a row. It's also seen the total go OVER the number in three straight, which is significant to note as the Cowboys have in fact seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of their last ten after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row.

Northwestern State has also played to three straight OVERs as well, but note that the Demons have seen the total go UNDER in eight of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row.

Look for this lop-sided mismatch to be MUCH more of a defensive battle than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BIG TEN TOY on the UNDER Michigan State/NW.

These teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but all signs finally point to more of a defensive affair for sure in my opinion.

Michigan State is 9-5 and Northwestern is 10-3.

The Spartans have won five straight SU/ATS, and they've seen the total go OVER in six straight. Despite their 92-61 home win over PSU (note that they're 0-1 SU in true road games this season), a contest that did go OVER the number, they've still seen the ttoal go UNDER the number in eight of their last 12 after playing to five or more straight OVERS in a row.

Northwestern is off the 96-66 loss at Illinois as a 5.5-point underdog. It had seen the total go UNDER in three straight before that setback. Now back at home, I'm anticipating that the Wildcats will return to form defensively.

Michigan State will double down defensively here after losing this game 70-63 as a six-point favorite last season.

When you add up all of these factors, I say this O/U line is now much too high in this one.

The play is indeed on the UNDER.

Good luck, NP