Sports Picks & Predictions

8* play on the Nuggets.

Not many predicted that Minnesota would roll over Nuggets in Denver over the first two games, including myself!

I'm not giving up on Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray quite yet though. Being successful in the playoffs is about making adjustments (both for these teams/players, but also us as sports bettors!) and I say the tools are in place for Denver to be much more competitive on the road here.

With the majority of the gernal betting public going one way, we'll go the other.

The play is DENVER.

Good luck, NP

8* play on Indiana.

Down 0-2 SU in this series, I'm expecting Indiana to push the pace and find a way to not only win Game 3, but to do so in blowout fashion.

New York lost Game 3 of its first round series in Philadelphia after winning the first two games at home, and I believe we see a similar pattern here.

The Pacers are 7-3 ATS in their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss against an opponent as well.

Lay the points, the play is INDIANA.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOB on the Mavericks.

The Mavericks looked competitive in the first half in Game 1, but then they fatigued in the second half and weren't able to keep pace with the Thunder.

But with Game 1 now out of the way, I'm expecting a much more competitive affair here in Game 2. 

Dallas has performed well in this spot for bettors though, going 7-3 ATS in its last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss vs. an opponent.

OKC is so far perfect in the postseason, but that streak is going to end shortly. It may not end tonight, but in a contest that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points.

The play is DALLAS.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Mavs.

Dallas took care of the Clippers in six games, while OKC got past a wounded Pelicans teams in four. The Thunder weren't tested, but will now run into a man on a mission here in Luka Doncic.

OKC went 3-1 SU in the regular season sereis, but I'm not reading too much into those results now that the playoffs are here.

The Mavericks defense looked particularly awesome in the first round and I think the Thunder are going to be in for a big surprise here on the step-up in the competition level after the cake-walk in the first round.

While the outright win is possible, in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can with the MAVERICKS.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* WEST-CONF GOW on the Nuggets.

The Lakers didnt' get swept. But now they're about to lose here in the thin air of Denver in Game 5. 

I'm predicting not only a victory for the Nuggets, but a blowout win in fact.

The Lakers were just 20-23 on the road this year, while the Nuggets were 35-8. 

The cast of characters and strengths and weaknesses of each of these teams is well known, so I don't need to break down the individual player matchups or give you any background on what's going on.

Denver is 7-3 ATS in its last ten in trying to avenge a road loss as a favorite vs. an opponent though.

Look for the defending champs to make an example of the King tonight and to keep the pedal to the metal until the final horn.

Lay the points, the play is DENVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BK on the Pels.

The Pels had a chance to win Game 1 in their 94-92 setback. I'm anticipating another tight game until the end here. I even considered taking New Orleans on the moneyline, but in the end let's grab up all these points.

Zion Williamson is still out likely to next weekend, but CJ McCollum and Jonas Valanciunas will be able to once again pick up the slack in my opinion.

The Thunder were a great regular season team, but they're in unchartered territory right now for most of these guys.

Playing as the No. 1 seed in the playoffs puts a target on your back.

Both teams shot poorly in Game 1. New Orleans has the depth and veteran experience to once again make Game 2 interesting.

While I do think an outright is possible, in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can with NEW ORLEANS.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* play on the Magic.

Orlando will be risking life and limb to avoid the 0-2 hole. Will that be enough to win this game outright?

Maybe.

But I do think that this one will go right down to the wire, so I'll be grabbing the points. Cleveland took Game 1 97-83, but note that the Magic are 4-1 ATS in their last five in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss vs. an opponent in which they were held to 95 or fewer points in.

Orlando shot poorly in Game 1, but I don't see that major discrepancy happening again.

With the jitters out of the way, look for ORLANDO to, at the very least, keep this one interesting until the final moments.

Grab the points, the play is ORLANDO.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Lakers.

To say the "revenge" factor comes into play here would be an understatement, as Denver has won eight straight in this series.

But note that five of those games were decided in the final five minutes.

LA though enters playing its best basketball of the season after winning 12 of its last 15. 

The Lakers are healthier than they've been in years and it's now or never. Will that be good enough to pull off the straight up upset?! 

Maybe!

But in the end, I'm going to grab the points with the LAKERS here in Game 1.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* play on the Hawks.

ATL finished 36-36 and as the last seed in the East. All Star point guard Trae Young though is back and healthy for the playoffs. 

Experience counts at this time of year and Atlanta has a ton of it and Chicago has now, as note the Hawks are 3- in the Play-In Tournament in their history. ATL is fifth overall in scoring and has the potential to win this game outright.

The Bulls finished 39-43, including just 20-21 at home. They've dealt with several injuries all year, including to star Zach Lavine, who is still out.

Look for ATLANTA'S depth and experience to prove to be invaluable in this moment but, that said, make sure to grab as many points as you can.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Bucks.

It's a big game for both teams with playoff implications on the line. Both teams are really struggling as well, but despite not having Giannis Antetokounmpo on the court, I like the Bucks to, at the very least, take this one right down to the wire in a competitive battle and to earn the comfortable cover with the handful of points that they've been afforded.

Even without the Greek Freak, the correct call is still the Bucks. We just saw Milwaukee beat the Magic by 18 points without Giannis earlier this week. Orlando has dropped three straight games and its inexperience at this time of year will be its undoing.

While I do think an outright is possible, in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can.

The play is MILWAUKEE. 

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BK on the Suns.

This is the opener of a home and home set between the teams, and I think the Suns will risk life and limb here to secure the home victory.

Phoenix had its three game win streak snapped last time out in a 113-105 home setback to New Orleans. But with its final three games on the road, this becomes a very important game for the SUNS.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* WEST-CONF NON-DIV GOM on the Pelicans.

The Pelicans have lost four straight, but despite who gets the start here today, I definitely am expecting New Orleans to put up a fight and go down hard trying.

Most recently it was a 111-109 loss to San Antonio. Note that the Pels are 7-3 ATS in their last ten off a SU/ATS home loss in which they were a double-digit favorite though.

They play with revenge as well after a 124-111 home loss to the Suns at the start of the month.

That was the first win of three straight now for Phoenix, but note that the Suns are a sub-par 1-4 ATS in their last five after three or more SU victories in a row.

Grab the points, thep lay is NEW ORLEANS.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* play on UConn.

The Crimson Tide have exceeded expectations. They lost four of their final six games before the Tournament started, but here they are in the Final Four, and according to KenPom they've faced the toughest schedule so far in the Tournament. Bama can score with the best of them, averaging 90.8 PPG, but overall the Crimson Tide are ranked just 105th in defensive efficiency. The tourney defending champs on the other hand are ranked 1st in offensive efficiency and 4th in defensive efficiency in the country. So far the Huskies are 4-0 ATS in this tournament, and with their ultimate goal now in sight, I expect them to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish. Lay the points, the play is UCONN.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* play on Purdue.

With the majority of the public riding the Cinderella Wolfpack here, I'm going the other way. This is the first time that NC State has been in the Final 4 since 1983. The Boilermakers have won a school record 33 games this year and I think their deep and veteran team will pull away comfortably for the win here, and have NC State playing from behind from start to finish. So far the Wolfpack is averaging 75.5 PPG in this tourney, and conceding 65.5, while the Boilermakers are averaging 84 PPG, while holding teams to just 62.8. These two teams are on different levels and I don't see Purdue allowing the Wolfpack to dictate the pace of this one. I expect a wide-open shootout, but one that Purdue pulls away for both the blowout win and comfortable cover at the same time. Lay the points, the play is indeed on PURDUE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* ELITE 8 TOP SIDE on Duke.

I've played on both these teams already in this tournament. However, I believe that the Wolfpack's Cinderella run is coming to an end finally.

Duke averages 79 PPG, while conceding 66.

NC State averages 76 PPG, while conceding 72.2. 

These teams split a pair of games this year, but Duke will now have a chance to avenge the quarterfinal loss in the Conference tournament game. 

Duke's an elite team that's had a couple huge "brain farts" this year. It's able to match up with anyone and it looked dominant defensively in its win over Houston.

I don't see the Wolfpack beating the Blue Devils twice in two weeks. 

Duke was an 11.5-point favorite in the Conference Tournament, so is a huge overreaction now by the oddsmakers in trying to "lead" the general betting public?!

I'm not buying it, and am instead laying the points here with revenge-minded DUKE.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* play on Houston.

I had a play on Duke in its win over James Madison last time out, but I think the No. 4 Blue Devils will bow out here now vs. the No. 1 seed Houston. The Cougars survived an OT thriller with Texas A&M, and with that legendary game now under their belts, I think we'll see a much more efficient Houston side here. The Cougars are basck in the Sweet 16 for the fifth straight time and they're going to have a distinct home-court advantage here, as this South Region portion is being played in Dallas. Lay the points, the play is HOUSTON.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* play on Purdue.

Gonzaga beat McNeese and a banged-up Kansas side, but I say it's run in this year's Tourney comes to an end this weekend. Overall they average 85.6 PPG, while conceding 68.7. Purdue averages 84.2, while allowing 70.2. The Boilermakers have had a more difficult schedule, have been more consistent overall this season, and will have the best player on the floor in Zach Edey (24.5 points and 12.1 rebounds.) Lay the points, the play is PURDUE.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* play on NC State.

NC State ranks 42nd nationally on offense and 76th in adjusted defensive efficiency. Marquette is healthy an on a mission of its own. The Golden Eagles are 19th on offense and 21st on defense. The Wolfpack have been one of these teams that simply won't go away and I expect that to again be the case in this matchup. Marquette will likely win this game, but it's going to be a dogfight down to the end, as Marquette does lack that killer's mentality overall in my opinion. Either way, grab the points with NC STATE.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* play on Alabama.

The Tide is the Nation's No. 1 scoring team and I think Alabama's offense will, at the very least, keep this one competitive until the final moments. Overall the Tide average 90.7 PPG, while UNC averages 90 so far over the first two games. Alabama will have its hands full in the middle with Armando Bacot, but look for their efficient shooting to keep them in this one late. Grab the points, the play is ALABAMA.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* play on San Diego State.

SDSU survived a late push from UAB in the first round, and then it blew out Yale 85-57 in the second. The Huskies are on a mission to repeat as Tourney champs after cruising by Stetson, before beating Northwestern 75-58. The Aztecs are out for revenge here after falling to the Huskies in last year's tournament championship game 76-59. SDSU returns many of those same players and I expect that experience to be crucial in this one. Grab the points, the play is SDSU.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* play on Clemson.

Clemson beat No. 11 seed New Mexico, then upset Clemson by eight points to arrive to this point, while Arizona beat LBSU, before then taking down No. 7 seed Dayton by ten. The Tigers ranks 24th in offensive efficiency, and 38th in defensive efficiency, while Arizona is ninth in offensive and tenth in defensive efficency. PJ Hall and the Tigers won't be going down without a fight here. I'll argue it's had the tougher road to this point. I'm not calling for an outright upset, but I do think this one will be a "nail-biter." Grab the points, the play is CLEMSON.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on Seton Hall.

I'm a contrarian at heart, but when you get to this point of the season with so few games and teams remaining, I believe "where the money is" so to speak becomes less of an important factor.

And that's the case in this one with UNLV visting Seton Hall in the quarterfinals. I had a play on the Pirates in their most recent 72-58 home win over defending tourney champ North Texas and I thought the home floor advantage would be important in the outcome in that one, and that'll again be the case once the final horn sounds in this one as well. 

The Rebels first took care of Penn 84-77 on the road, before returning home to beat Boston College by a score of 79-70.

So far the Rebels have won their first two games by an average of eight points, but they haven't been great defensively, conceding 78 points so far in the early going.

The Pirates had to hold on for dear life in their first game, beating Saint Joseph's 75-72 in overtime, but they looked a lot better in their win over the Mean Green, beating North Texas 72-58.

It's just packed every time Seton Hall plays, and while the Rebels have been decent on the road this year with an 8-3 record, I just think their time has now run out here on Wednesday night.

Hall has stepped up its defensive play in the tournament, holding its two opponents to an average of just 65 points per game.

The Pirates are also the much better rebounding team.

I think when you add it all up, home court advantage will indeed prove critical in the outcome of this game on Wednesday night for SETON HALL.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* play on Yale.

SDSU held on for the 69-65 win over UAB in the First Round, and was unable to cover the 6.5-point spread. I think the Aztecs will now also struggle to cover here vs. this confident and red hot Yale side got the better of Auburn 78-76 as 14-point dogs. The Bulldogs are 5-1 SU in neutral site games this year and simply won't be fazed. They had to compete with the Tigers in the middle of the paint last time out, but they do in fact matchup a lot better here vs. the Aztecs. Outright win?! Anything's possible, but I see this one coming down to the wire. Grab the points, the play is YALE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* play on Clemson.

While I think an outright win is possible, in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can in a contest that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last. Clemson hammered New Mexico 77-56 to advance, while Baylor breezed by Colgate 92-67. The Tigers locked down New Mexico and held the Lobos to just 31 percent shooting, and I believe this aggressive defensive play will give the underdog a legit chance at winning this one outright. Grab the points, the play is CLEMSON.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* play on Duke.

I think No. 12 seed James Madison's Cinderella run will come to an end here vs. No. 4 Duke. James Madison got out to an early lead and never looked back in the win over Wisconsin, but Duke buried Vermont 64-47. The Dukes only concede 68.9 PPG, but Duke averages 79.4. I think the Blue Devils up-tempo offense will be just too much for James Madison to keep up with down the stretch. Lay the points, the play is DUKE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* GOLDEN SIDE PLAY on Illinois.

I say No. 11 Duquesne's "Cinderella" run comes to an end here vs. No. 3 Illinois on Saturday night. 

The Illini smashed Morhead State 85-69, and I'm predicting a similar final outcome in this one as well.

The Dukes somehow managed a 71-67 win over No. 6 BYU as nine-point dogs, and I say there's now a major over-reaction by the general betting public for the underdog side.

Lay the points with confidence, the play is ILLINOIS.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BLOOD-BATH on Kansas.

I had a play on Gonzaga in its opening round win over McNeese State, but I believe the Bulldogs will have their hands full here with the Jayhawks.

Kansas beat Samford 93-89 to move, but was unable to cover the 7.5-point spread.

The Jayhawks are without their best player, but they're still loaded with talent, including the likes of Hunter Dickinson and KJ Adams.

Graham Ike and Ryan Nembhard round out a deep Gonzaga squad, but I don't see Kansas going down here without a fight.

In a game that I see going down to the wire, I'm grabbing the points.

The play is KANSAS.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on Seton Hall.

UNT moved into the second round of the NIT with a big road win at LSU on Tuesday (I had the Mean Green in that one), but I believe they'll now finally stumble here in this difficult road venue.

They're the defending champs of this Tournament, but with a new coach. While they pulled off the slight road upset in the First Round, I'm not predicting lightning to "strike twice" here. 

I also had the Pirates in their 75-72 win over St. Joes, and while they did win SU, they didn't cover the four-point spread. 

But the Pirates own a size advantage, while also bringing a better overall offense to the table (with pretty much even defensive units.)

SETON HALL is 15-3 at home this year and the fans will be out here in force to ensure there will be a new NIT champion this year. Lay the points.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* TOP CONTRARIAN SIDE on Wisconsin.

I think No. 12 James Madison will have its hands full here with No. 5 seed Wisconsin.

The Badgers are coming off a close loss in the Big Ten Championship game and I see them taking out their frustrations here on the Dukes.

James Madison has won 13 straight, which includes the Sun Belt Tourney Championship, but the old saying: all good things must come to an end, couldn't be more apt in my opinion. 

The Dukes only managed one win over a ranked team, it was their first game of the year at then No. 4 Michigan State, winning 79-76. I don't think they'd win again if those teams played today.

Look for the Badgers size and and shooting percentage to be just too much for James Madison to keep up to down the stretch.

Lay the points, the play is on WISCONSIN.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on San Diego State.

I think SDSU will not only win this game, but do so in blowout fashion, making this a spread in which I have no issues at all in laying.

UAB finished 23-11, while SDSU was 24-10. UAB beat Temple in the AAC Championship Game, while the Aztecs earned the No. 5 seed by finishing 11-7 in the Mountain West, ranked in the Top 25 for most of the season.

UAB managed to rattle off three wins in the conference tournament, but I think it'll have its hands full here. Overall the Blazers average 77.4 PPG, while conceding 75.8.

SDSU averags 74.2 PPG, while conceding only 67.3. The difference will come down the stretch on the defensive end.

Lay the points with confidence, the play is SDSU.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* play on Gonzaga.

No. 12 seeds are just 53-99 vs. No. 5 seeds in this Tournament. Gonzaga finished 25-7 overall, while McNeese State was 30-3. The Cowboys are a tough team under coach Will Wade, who took LSU to the Sweet 16 in 2019, but the Bulldogs experience here at this point will prove to be a difference-maker in my opinion. Mark Few will find a way to not only win this game, but do so in blowout fashion. Lay the points, the play is GONZAGA.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* play on Oakland.

The Wildcats can score. We all know this. But they can't defend. And the Grizzlies know this. In what will likely turn out to be a high-scoring shootout, we think that Oakland can "hang" with the Wildcats and, at the very least, keep this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch with all the points they've been afforded in this one. The Grizz have been competitive all year, as evidenced by their 21-13 ATS record this season. Oakland was a dog in 12 games this year and covered in nine of them. No outright in this one, but much closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Grab the points, the play is OAKLAND.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* play on Colorado State.

Ultimately I feel that "rest" will lead to "rust" here for Texas. Colorado State rolls into the Round of 64 off a dominant 25-point victory over Virginia, shooting 55.3 percent from the field, while holding its opponent to just 25 percent shooting. The Longhorns have been off since March 13th when they lost in the second round of the Big 12 Tournament. Joel Scott looks on fire right now again for the Rams, so I'm grabbing the points with COLORADO STATE in this one.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BLOWOUT on Boise State.

Colorado finished 24-10 and had its eight-game win streak snapped in its 75-68 loss to Oregon in the Pac 12 Tournament title game, but they return to the Tournament in the First Four for the first time since 2021.

Boise State finished 22-10, and it's one of the only teams to earn a bid after losing its first conference tournament game.

The Broncos though had some big wins this year and won't be fazed. They beat Saint Mary's and went 2-1 in their last three regular-season games vs. Tournament bound teams. 

Boise State defends the three-point line incredibly well, ranked 23rd nationally, while also finishing with a top-five defensive rebounding percentage. 

Colorado won only one game away from home vs. an NCAA Tournament team. 

Boise State has two extra days of rest here after losing its first game in the conference tournament, which is really big situationally as well at this point of the year.

While I clearly feel the outright is possible, the official call is to grab as many points as you can with BOISE STATE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NIT OPENING RND TOP SIDE on Seton Hall.

If we're looking at this from a betting perspective, which clearly we are, then we find that nearly 75 percent of the early public money is on the visiting side.

That of course makes the home side really attractive to me, appealing to my natrual contrarian ways.

The Hawks enter the NIT Tournament averaging 76.7 PPG, while allowing 71.3. Erik Reynolds II leads the nightly charge by averaging 17 points and 2.7 rebounds.

Seton Hall averages 72.8 PPG, while conceding 69.5. Kadary Richmond leads most nights by averaging 16.1 points and 4.9 assists.

The Pirates are 14-3 SU at home. I think they'll control the pace of this one and be able to pull away down the stretch for not only the win, but also the comfortable cover.

Lay the points, the play is SETON HALL.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BLOWOUT on Grambling State.

I think Grambling State is primed for its first-ever NCAA Tournament win, in its first-ever Tournament Berth, after beating Texas Southern in the SWAC Tournament, after losing in the same game each of the last two years. 

The Montana State Bobcats entered the regular-season finale with a 13-17 record, and then they posted four straight wins, winning the Big Sky Conference Tournament to earn a third straight NCAA tournament berth (note that the Bobcats are 0-5 all-time in March Madness games.)

The Bobcats got hot from range in March and won their tournament, but Grambling State defends the perimeter incredibly well, allowing the second-lowest percentage (30%) in the SWAC.

Montana State struggles to defend the rim, ranking near the bottom in many metrics. 

So that plays into Grambling State's strength, as it generates 53 percent of its points from inside the arc.

Look for Grambling State to exploit this weakness, which could also easily lead to an outright victory.

That said, the official call is to grab as many points as you can with GRAMBLING STATE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NIT ATS BLOOD-BATH on Iowa.

Kansas State finished 19-14, but just 2-8 in true road games.

Iowa finished 18-14 overall, but 13-4 at home.

I think these numbers matter right now here in this NIT Opening matchup, as look for the Hawkeyes to not only win this game, but to do so by a sizeable margin.

The Hawkeyes averaged 82.9 PPG, while conceding 79. The Wildcats average 71.9 PPG, while allowing 70.5.

The margin of error is pretty slim for each team, but there's a big road a home discrepancy factor that comes into play here.

Tournament time and home floor advantage can't be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this one.

Lay the points, the play is IOWA.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NIT ULTIMATE BK on North Texas.

North Texas has a new coach this year in Ross Hodge. UNT enters the defending NIT champs though and in a contest that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points.

UNT finished 18-14, while LSU was 17-15. 

The Mean Green went 4-2 down the stretch, while Matt McMahon and the Tigers went 3-2 in their final five. 

Interestingly, this is the second meeting of the season between the teams, and UNT plays with revenge after the 66-62 neutral site loss to LSU back on November 17th. 

But that was then, and this is now. UNT enters 73rd in the KenPom rankings, while LSU is 91st. 

The Mean Green have one of the best defenses in the nation still, and that'll be the difference-maker in the end.

While I clearly feel the outright is possible, my official call will be to grab as many points as you can with NORTH TEXAS.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BLOWOUT on Wagner.

These two teams were "lucky" to win their respective conference tournaments to earn this opportunity, but that said, I still have no idea how the books have Howard favored here.

They won two more games, but they have one of the worst defenses in the entire nation and they also turn it over 21.7 percent of their possessions (easily the worst of all the teams in the Tournament.) 

The Seahawks have the second slowest tempo in the country, but they also rank tenth in opponent three-point %, which counters Howard's crutch on leaning on the three-ball for offensive production. 

Wagner seems to be the healthier team coming in on paper as well from what I'm seeing. In a contest that could come down to whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points. 

The play is WAGNER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* SITUATIONAL BLOWOUT on the Pelicans.

LA snapped a two-game slide with a 126-111 road win at Chicago just last night, but I believe it'll be fatigued here in the second game of the back-to-back scenario, with players being rested as well.

LA returns home to face Atlanta, followed by two straight vs. Portland, so the visitors also get caught "looking ahead" here.

New Orleans had its four-game win streak snapped last time out here with a 116-95 setback to Cleveland, but the Pels beat LA 117-106 on the road at the start of February and I'm expecting a similar result here as well.

The Pels have Portland coming to town tomorrow, so they don't have anything to "look past" here. 

This one has "BLOWOUT" written all over it in my opinion; lay the points, the play is New Orleans!

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BK on UAB.

This is the AAC Quarterfinal. The Shockers are off an upet over Memphis 71-65 as nine-point dogs and I believe they'll now predictably stumble here vs. UAB which plays its first game of the Conference Tournament after beating SMU 74-70 in its regular-season finale.

These teams played once in the regular season, and UAB fell 74-66 as an 8-point home favorite, which is signficant for us to take note of, as the Blazers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent.

look for the well-rested BLAZERS to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish and lay the points with confidence!

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BK on the Thunder.

Just a really great spot of OKC. Dallas has been on a role as it's won four straight, including a 109-99 home win over the Warriors just last night. 

But now the Thunder can take advantage of this fatigued visiting side, while also getting to avenge a 146-111 loss at Dallas in early February.

With a couple nights off, followed by a home game vs. the defending champs, not only is this a "letdown" spot for the visitors, but also a "look ahead."

Look for OKC to have no mercy and to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* play on Liberty.

This one is based upon revenge from their most recent regular-season meeting.

UTEP finished 16-15, and Liberty was 18-13.

In their most recent matchup on March 2nd, the Miners somehow managed the 67-51 road win as nine-point dogs. Note that the Flames are 7-3 ATS in their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference home loss as a fav vs. an opponent.

Lay the points, the play is LIBERTY.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* play on Loyola Chicago.

Conference Tournament time, and the end of the season in general means that I handicap the games differently than I do in the regular season.

This one is all about the "revenge" factor, because the last time these teams played against each other, 23-7 Loyola Chicago lost 79-64 to the 18-12 Bonnies on February 27th, and note that the Ramblers are 7-3 ATS in their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference road loss vs. an opponent.

Look for the neutral site location to favor LOYOLA CHICAGO in this one.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* play on Tulsa.

The Golden Hurricane finished 16-14, while ECU was 14-17. The Hurricane beat No. 24 USF 76-70 in their regular season finale, while the Pirats lost 82-72 at 1.5-point home favorites to Charlotte. Tulsa plays with revenge after their most recent matchup, a 62-57 loss on January 7th.

I say all of these factors combine for TULSA to, at the very least, pull off the ATS cover this afternoon.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* PAC 12 GOM on Cal.

With nearly 70% of the early public money on Stanford, we're definitely going full on contrarian with this one.

Stanford snapped a six-game slide at the end of the regular season with an 80-58 win over these same Cal Bears.

Cal though won 73-71 at home back on January 26th. Cal didn't cover in either game, but now here in this neutral location, I believe these evenly matched sides will battle down to the wire. This one has the feel of whichever team has its hands on the ball last will come out on top in the season "grudge match." 

Grab the points, the play is indeed on CAL.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* WEST COAST TOURNEY GOY on San Francisco.

San Francisco finished 23-9 overall in the West Coast Conference, but it wasn't good enough to earn a first round bye. The Dons though went on to smoke Portland 72-51 yesterday, not "looking past" their lowly opponent whatsoever.

The Dons faced the Bulldogs twice in the regular season and lost both times. One was really close, one was a blowout. The Dons lost 77-72 at Gonzaga on January 25th, then they also lost 86-68 at home to the Bulldogs on February 29th.

Now here in this neutral site location in Vegas, I believe the Dons will keep it close, similar to what they did on the road earlier in the year.

The win over Portland only helps with chemistry, while the time off could lead to a little rust for Gonzaga.

It's difficult to beat a team three times in the same year. That's the old saying anyway.

That said, I'm not calling for an outright victory, but I for sure am expecting this to be a battle until the final horn.

This is a great overall situational play, so grab the points, because the play is indeed on SAN FRANCISCO.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BIG SKY TOURNEY GOY on Idaho State.

Two poor teams, but Idaho State plays with revenge here after a 92-88 OT home loss to NAU as a 7.5-point favorite back in late February, and note that the Bengals are 8-2 ATS in their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent.

Idaho State is just 12-19, while NAU is only 14-18.

This neutral site affair favors Idaho State for a number of different reasons.

It's tourney time guys and I don't have a lot of extra time for analysis these days. But with nearly 75% of the early public money on NAU, we're going the other way.

The play is IDAHO STATE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* SOUTHERN GOY on VMI.

Outright victory? I'm not calling for that. But I do just thinkg that 16-15 East Tennessee State is severely overvalued here.

The Buccaneers won both games vs. the 4-27 VMI Keydets, who I think can keep this one competitive until the final moments.

On the year the Kadets averaged 69 PPG, while allowing 82.1.

East Tennessee State averaged 70.2 PPG, while allowing 69.3. 

Victories when they did come for the Bucs, were always tight. 

They lost 82-69 at East Tennessee State on February 21st, but I'm expecting an even tighter battle here during the tournament.

It's difficult to beat a team three times in one year. I'm not predicting an outright upset, but I do think this will be a much tougher fight for the Bucs than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.

So grab the points, the play is indeed on VMI.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BK on the 76ers.

The 76ers are going to have a tough time of it for the rest of the season most nights without star Joel Embiid in the line-up.

But there will be some nights and spots where it makes sense to back Philly, and tonight is one of those times.

New Orleans comes in off back-to-back wins, but note that after three straight ATS victories, it's relevant to note here that the visiting side is in fact just 3-7 ATS in its last ten after three or more ATS victories in a row.

Philly does indeed play with revenge here as well after a 124-114 road loss as a 2.5-point favorite back in late November, and note that the 76ers are 4-1 ATS in their last five in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss as a fav vs. an opponent.

As I say, without Embiid it's the "next man up" mentality for the 76ers every single night, and most nights that won't work out too well for them, but here is a great spot for Philadelphia to finally be extremely competitive.

I'm stopping short in calling for the outright, but all signs point to a battle until the final horn.

Grab the points, the play is indeed on PHILADELPHIA.

Good luck, NP

This is my 10* MISSOURI VALLEY TOURNEY GAME OF YEAR on SIU Edwardsville.

These teams went 1-1 in the season series, with each side winning and covering at home. The Cougars were 8-point home favorites and they won 67-58, while Eastern Illinois was a two-point dog that won outright at home 84-79 most recently on February 27th.

With the setback fresh on their minds, I definitely expect the Cougars to take advantage of this neutral court situation, and to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish.

Note as well that SIU Edwardsville is in fact 7-3 ATS in its last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference road loss as a favorite vs. an opponent.

Lay the points, the play is SIU EDWARDSVILLE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* MAC GOY on Toledo.

Toledo is 18-11, including 7-5 on the road, while Miami Ohio is 15-14 overall, including 9-4 at home. 

The Rockets broke a two-game slide with an 85-79 win at Buffalo, but it was their third straight ATS loss. That however is very significant to note, because Toledo is 7-3 ATS in its last ten after three or more ATS losses in a row.

It beat Miami Ohio 68-64 back on January 5th, but it did not come close to covering the 11.5-point spread.

Tonight's spread is much more manageable here, despite being on the road. 

Miami Ohio has won three straight, both SU and ATS after a 52-37 victory at EMU last time out. Note though that the RedHawks are just 1-4 ATS in their last five after three or more SU/ATS victories in a row.

EMU is 12-17. Bowling Green is 17-12. CMU is 16-13. I respect what Miami Ohio has done over the last three weeks, but I think this is just a bad matchup for the home side.

Look for TOLEDO to comfortably pull away for the win and cover here on Tuesday night.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Memphis Grizzlies.

Outright win?! I'm not calling for that. But in a contest that I see being a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe, I'm grabbing the points and expecting a battle until the final horn.

First off, with nearly 70% of the early public money on the home side here, my contrarian nature definitely makes me love this play even more.

Memphis is 20-41 overall, including 13-17 on the road, while Brooklyn is only 24-36 overall, including just 15-17 at home.

Memphis is off five straight SU losses after back-to-back home losses to Portland, including a disappointing 107-100 OT loss most recently. 

The Grizz though are 4-1 ATS in their last five after five or more SU losses in a row.

Brooklyn is coming off back-to-back home wins over Atlanta, but with Philadelphia coming to town tomorrow, I say the home side gets caught "looking ahead" here.

The Grizz play with the added incentive of revenge as well after a 111-86 home loss to the Nets in late February.

Clearly, Memphis is just going through the motions this season, getting ready for next year. But there are going to be moments and "spots" throughout the season where the Grizzlies will win and that putting money on them to cover the spread makes sense.

And this really large one against this really mediocre Nets team that's poised for a letdown is the right place to FIRE.

As stated off the top, no outright, but closer than expected.

The play is MEMPHIS.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* REVENGE BK on UL Lafayette.

Throughout the month of March, my writeups will be more succinct due to the fact that I plan on releasing more plays, and don't have as much time as I do normally.

Revenge is the motivating driver behind this pick. 

Southern Miss is 16-14, but just 5-8 on the road. UL Lafayette is 17-13, including 10-3 at home. 

After four straight losses, the Cajuns come out fired up here to avenge an 82-71 loss to Southern Miss in late February, and note that UL Lafayette is in fact 4-1 ATS in its last five in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference road loss as a favorite vs. an opponent.

Lay the points, the play is UL LAFAYETTE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* REVENGE BK on Tulane.

Here's a great situational play on the home side.

UAB is 17-9, including 5-4 on the road, while Tulane is 13-12 overall, including 10-4 at home.

UAB had its three-game win streak snapped in a 94-71 loss at home to Rice as an 11-point favorite and I think it's now ripe for another letdown here vs. the revenge-minded home side.

As the Green Wave does indeed play with revenge after an 83-69 loss at UAB as two-point dogs back in January, and note that Tulane is in fact 7-3 ATS in its last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss vs. an opponent. 

In my opinion, everything points to a rout for the home side. Lay the points, the play is TULANE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* OHIO VALLEY GOY on Lindenwood.

While I'm stopping short in calling for an outright victory, I do love the way this one sets up for the home side from a situational stand-point.

UALR is the better team. It's 17-11 overall, while Lindenwood is only 8-20. 

The Rams though are just 5-6 on the road. UALR comes in complacent after six straight victories in my opinion, especially with back-to-back upcoming home games to close out the season, starting with 16-12 Tennessee State mid-week.

The Lions have lost six straight, both SU and ATS, but despite a 106-82 loss to Tennessee Martin as a nine-point dog last time out, Lindewood is still 8-4 ATS in its last 12 after five or more SU/ATS losses in a row.

The Lions also play with revenge after an 80-66 loss at UALR as 9.5-point dogs, and note that Lindenwood is in fact 3-1 ATS in its last four in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference road loss vs. an opponent.

For all the reasons listed above, the play is LINDENWOOD.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BIG 12 GOY on Oklahoma.

Oklahoma is 18-8 overall, but just 2-4 on the road, while Oklahoma State is 12-14 overall, including 10-5 at home. 

The Sooners are off back-to-back losses, both as dogs, but now will look to bounce back here and get back on track.

Oklahoma though is 7-3 ATS in its last ten after three or more ATS losses in a row.

The Sooners won this game 66-62 as 11-point favorites earlier in the month, so they won't be taking the Cowboys lightly, who I believe look primed for a letdown here after back-to-back victories, both as an underdog. 

The Cowboys are now getting a little TOO much respect here and I look for the "better" and "hungrier" visiting side to not only win this game, but to do so in blowout fashion.

Lay the points, the play is on OKLAHOMA.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NORTHWEST GAME OF MONTH on the Blazers.

Here is a great spot for Portland to earn, at the very least, a solid cover. 

Denver comes in on the heels of a 130-110 home win over Washington just last night, and I believe it'll be fatigued here in the second game of the back-to-back.

With a much more high-profile game at Golden State up after this, this also sets up as a "look ahead" spot for the visitors. 

Letdown + lookahead = trap game.

Portland plays with revenge after its 112-103 loss at Denver at the start of the month. The Blazers did earn the ATS cover with the 15 points that they were afforded in that one. 

The Blazers went into the break off six straight losses, but they come into the second half here tonight rested and I believe they'll keep this one competitive throughout.

No outright, but closer than expected.

Grab the points, the play is PORTLAND.

Good luck, NP

This is 10* NON-CONF GOW on the Jazz.

I'm a situational capper and this one sets up really well for the home side.

Charlotte is 13-41 overall, including just 5-21 on the road, while Utah is only 26-30 overall, but 17-10 at home.

Both teams return to the second half well-rested, but I think that the home-court advantage will prove to be the differnce-maker here.

The Hornets are only 8-17 ATS on the road, while Utah is 18-9 ATS at home.

The Jazz went into the break on four straight losses but they beat Charlotte 134-122 on the road as ten-point favorites back in January and I'm expecting an even bigger destruction this time around.

Lay the points with confidence, the play is UTAH.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* TOP REVENGE PLAY on BYU.

Revenge is a powerful motivating factor. Or it can be. It can also be overrated at times.

But not in this case in my opinion. Baylor is 19-6 SU, but just 3-3 on the road.

BYU is 18-7 overall, including 13-2 at home. The Cougars had their two game win streak snapped last time out in a 93-83 loss at Oklahoma State as 6-point favorites. They've now lost four straight against the spread. 

But note that BYU is still 8-4 ATS in its last 12 after three or more ATS losses in a row.

And the Cougars do indeed play with revenge after falling 81-73 at Baylor as 4.5-point dogs back in January, and note that BYU is 7-3 ATS in its last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference road loss vs. an opponent.

Baylor has won two in a row SU and three straight ATS, but note that the Bears are just 4-6 ATS in their last ten after three or more ATS victories in a row. 

Will Baylor get caught "looking ahead" to its next game at home vs. No. 1 Houston in a couple of days? The answer is: very possibly!

There are many significant factors working in favor of the REVENGE-minded home side today. 

Lay the points, the play is BYU.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BK on Tulane.

While I clearly believe the outright win is a very distinct possibility, my official call will be to grab as many points as you can here with the visiting side.

Tulane is 13-11, including 2-5 on the road, while ECU is 13-12, including 10-7 at home.

Tulane comes in off back-to-back losses, both as a dog. These teams haven't played since last year, and Tulane managed to pull off the 81-78 SU upset victory as a 12.5-point underdog.

ECU is off B2B victories, both as a favorite. Note though that the Pirates are just 3-6 ATS in their last nine after three or more ATS victories in a row.

Clearly, with a spread like this the oddsmakers believe these teams are evenly matched. And they are this year. But the overall situation, combined with the trends, favors the visitors.

Grab the points, the play is TULANE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* SOUTHERN GOM on Furman.

I base my picks on many different things. This particular one is essentially based around the "revenge factor."

Chattanooga is 18-8, including 8-5 on the road, while Furman is 14-12, but 10-2 at home. 

The Paladins play with revenge after a 73-58 loss at Chattanooga at the start of January, and note that Furman has indeed responded very well in this spot for bettors, going 8-2 (80%) ATS in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference road loss vs. an opponent. 

Chattanooga has indeed won three straight, but note that the Mocs are just 1-3 ATS in their last four after three or more SU victories in a row.

Revenge is a powerful motivating factor and it'll prove to be the difference-maker in this one once the final horn blares.

Lay the points, the play is FURMAN.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NORTHWEST DIV. GOY on the Blazers.

As primarily a "situational" capper, this one falls right into my wheelhouse. This is the last day of NBA games before the All-Star break, and with a few players heading to the big event, I say the visitors get caught "looking ahead" here.

Portland has lost five straight SU and three straight ATS after its 121-109 loss at Minnesota two nights ago, but note that the Blazers are 7-3 ATS in their last ten after three or more ATS losses in a row.

It's a PERFECT SPOT BET here on Portland, which catches the Wolves complacent and "looking ahead."

I'm not going to go out on a limb and call for an outright upset or anything, but all signs definitley point to a much tighter battle than what this spread is suggesting in my opinion.

Grab the points, the play is PORTLAND.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BIG TEN GOY on Penn State.

Revenge. It's a powerful motivating factor, or it can potentially be a powerful motivating factor. Both for the teams actually playing the game, and also for handicappers in their arsenal as far as looking at motivation etc when it comes to a matchup. 

Sometimes the "revenge factor" can be wildly over-rated, but other times it definitely is something that can't be ignored. And that's the case with this game here on Wednesday in my opinion.

Michigan State hammered Penn State 92-61 on January 4th, with Malike Hall going for a career-high 24 points, but now it's time for the Nittany Lions to respond.

And they've actually done really well in this spot for bettors going 7-3 against the spread in their last ten in trying to avenge a straight up and against the spread conference road loss in which they were held to 69 or fewer points in.

The difference in the first game was at the three-point line, as the Spartans went 10 of 21 from range, while the Nittany Lions were just 3 of 29. 

Now back at home, I think those big discrepancies will correct themselves here for Penn State.

Michigan State is off an 88-80 upset of then No. 10 Illinois and has won four of its last five, which really sort of sets this up as a potential letdown spot in my opinion, especially with a big rivalry game at Michigan up next for the Spartans.

Letdown + look-ahead = TRAP GAME!

Penn State is looking to get back on track here as it had won three straight before its most recent 68-63 loss to Northwestern. 

While I do think an outright victory is possible, my official call will be to grab as many points as you can with PENN STATE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* ACC GOY on BC.

As primarily a "situational" handicapper, this one falls right into my "wheel-house." 

Louisville is just 8-16 overall, including only 1-7 on the road, while BC is 13-10 overall, including 8-4 at home.

The Cardinals have been alternating wins/losses over their last four games and off a 79-67 home win over Georgia Tech last time out, I expect this pattern to continue.

BC has dropped two in a row, but SU and ATS. Both against really good teams, falling 63-62 here to FSU as a four-point fav, before losing 80-65 at Duke as a 13-point dog last time out.

These teams last met on March 7th in the postseason, and the Eagles posted the convincing 80-62 victory, and I fully expect a similar final lop-sided beatdown in this one as well.

These teams meet in Louisville to finish off the season. Home court advantage is going to be the difference-maker in the end as I like the more "in form" home side to pull away down the strech for the comfortable win and cover.

The play is BOSTON COLLEGE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BIG WEST GOM on UC Riverside.

While I do think an outright victory is possible, in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can.

UC Irvine is 18-6, including just 6-6 on the road, while UC Riverside is only 9-15 overall, but 8-3 at home.

Home floor advantage definitely comes into play here. 

The Anteaters have won five straight SU and three straight ATS, but note that UC Irvine is in fact a poor 3-7 ATS in its last ten after three or more ATS victories in a row. 

UC Riverside snapped a three-game slide with a 65-63 win over CSU Baksersfield last time out, but it's lost three straight. That's also significant for us to take note of here as the Highlanders are 4-1 ATS in their last five after three or more ATS setbacks in a row.

While I'll stop short in calling for the outright upset, all signs point to a much tighter battle than what this spread is suggesting in my opinion.

Grab the points, the play is UC RIVERSIDE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* MW GOM on San Jose State.

I'm not calling for an outright win or anything, but everything points to a much tighter battle than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe in my opinion. 

San Jose State is 8-15, including only 1-8 on the road, while CSU is 18-5, including 12-1 at home.

After six straight SU losses and five straight ATS losses in a row, the visitors come in "under the radar" here and are a bit undervalued. In fact, note that the Spartans have in fact performed well in this spot for bettors by going 7-3 ATS in their last ten after five or more ATS losses in a row.

Clearly, the Rams are the better team as they enter off three straight SU/ATS victories in a row. That's also significant for us to take note of though as CSU is just 4-7 ATS in its last 11 after three or more SU/ATS victories in a row. 

With a game at 18-5 SDSU after this, not only does this set up as a natural "letdown" spot for the home side, but also a "look-ahead." 

Add those two factors together and you get "TRAP GAME!" 

As stated off the top, no outright, but much closer than expected. Grab the points, the play is SJSU.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* REVENGE BK on the Knicks.

Dallas is 28-23, including 14-10 on the road, while New York is 33-18, including 19-6 in front of the home town crowd.

New York was a -4.5-point favorite in a 128-124 loss at Dallas back in January, and note that the Knicks are 4-1 ATS in their last five in trying to avenge a SU/ATS loss as a favorite vs. an opponent.

And now the Knicks are back here at home as 4.5-point dogs in this revenge spot. 

Yes, Dallas is coming off back-to-back road wins, but over a weakened Philly and Brooklyn. With upcoming home games vs. the Thunder, Wizards and Spurs, I say the visitors get caught "looking ahead" here as well.

Despite who plays, this is just such a great situational play on the home side as there are many different factors working in its favor. 

The outright win is clearly possible, but my official call will be to grab as many points as you can.

The play is NEW YORK.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* SWAC GOY on Jackson State.

Just take Jackson State on the money-line in this one.

Southern is the better team, but this sets up really well for the home side. Southern is 12-9, but just 4-9 on the road.

Jackson State is 8-13, but 2-1 at home. The Jaguars are off three straight SU/ATS victories, but note that Southern is in fact just 1-4 ATS in its last five after three or more SU/ATS wins in a row.

The Jaguars posted the 71-70 win at Alcorn State as 2-point dogs last time out, but note as well that Southern is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten off a SU/ATS conference road win as an underdog.

Jackson State has lost three straight SU/ATS after its most recent 70-62 loss to Grambling as a 2.5-point favorite. Note though that the Tigers have responded extremely well in this spot for bettors by going 4-1 ATS in their last five following three or more straight SU/ATS losses in a row.

With back-to-back upcoming road games, tonight's contest takes on added importance for the home side, which lost this game 73-62 last year.

All in all, fantastic value here on the hungrier home side.

Lay the price, the play is JACKSON STATE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE GOW on the Hornets.

Clearly, the 27-25 Lakers are the "better" team. LA though is just 9-17 on the road.

The Hornets' issues are well-documented as well. They're 10-38, including 5-19 at home. Charlotte though comes in "under" the radar here after seven straight SU/ATS losses in a row. 

It plays with revenge as well after a 128-113 SU/ATS loss at LA in late December, and note that the Hornets are 3-1 ATS in their last four in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss vs. an opponent.

LA is off B2B road upsets, beating Boston 114-105, before then taking down the Knicks 113-105. This is the final game of their six-game trip and they have the defending champs at home after this.

Not only is this a natural letdown spot for the visitors, but it's also a look-ahead position.

Add thoese two factors together and you get "TRAP GAME."

No outright, but MUCH closer than expected. Grab the points, the play is CHARLOTTE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AAC GOM on SMU.

UAB is 14-7 overall, including 4-3 on the road, while SMU is 14-6, including 10-2 at home. 

Off an 82-79 OT win at North Texas as a six-point dog though, all signs point to UAB suffering a predictable letdown here. In fact, note that the Blazers are just 3-7 ATS in their last ten following a SU/ATS conference road win as an underdog.

And with a home game vs. Conference leading FAU up next, not only does this potentially set up as a letdown spot for the visitors, but also a "look ahead" spot. Add those two factors together and you get "TRAP GAME." 

SMU broke a two-game slide with an 80-76 win over Tulane here last time out. The Mustangs have lost three straight ATS, but that's also signficant to note as SMU is in fact 8-4 ATS in its last 12 after three or more straight ATS losses in a row.

Look for SMU to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish and to easily pull away for the win and cover before the final horn sounds.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* WAC GOM on UT Arlington.

While I clearly believe UT Arlington will win this game outright, my official call will be to grab as many points as you can.

This is a great situational play.

UT Arlington is 9-11 overall, including a lop-sided 0-9 on the road, while Southern Utah is only 8-12 overall, but 5-3 at home.

These teams are clearly very evenly matched, but this one sets up great for the visitors in my opinion to snap their road futility streak.

The Mavericks are off back-to-back losses, but note that they're 6-2 ATS in their last eight after three or more straight ATS setbacks in a row.

Southern Utah is 3-2 in its last five SU, but 5-0 ATS. Note though that the Thunderbirds are a sub-par 2-6 ATS in their last eight after five or more straight ATS victories in a row.

Look for the "hungrier" visiting side to deliver the goods, the play is indeed on UT ARLINGTON.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* MW GOM on Boise State.

While I'm definitely NOT calling for an outright upset, I do think this spread is definitely MUCH too large, as I expect the hungry visiting side to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch.

Boise State is 14-6 overall, including 3-1 on the road, while New Mexico is 18-3 overall, including 11-0 at home.

The Broncos are off a 90-84 OT home loss to Utah State as 2.5-point favorites, which is significant for us to take note of here, as Boise Stae is in fact 7-3 ATS in its last ten off a SU/ATS conference home loss as a favorite.

New Mexico is off five straight SU/ATS victories after its most recent 89-55 home win here over Nevada, but note that the Lobos are just 1-4 ATS in their last five after five or more SU/ATS victories in a row.

The bottom line here is that I feel this will be a competitive game and this home spread is absolutely inflated due to public perception.

As stated off the top, no outright upset, but definitely A LOT closer than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.

Grab the points, the play is BOISE STATE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Hornets.

While I'll stop short in calling for an outright upset, everything points to a much tighter, and ultimatley closer battle than what this line is suggesting in my opinion.

I just think New York will get caught looking past the hungry Hornets. The Knicks are 29-17, but just 13-12 on the road.

With a home game vs. Utah tomorrow night, I expect the visitors to take the foot off the gas in the second half.

The Hornets are just 10-34 this year, but after three straight SU/ATS losses, note that Charlotte is in fact 7-3 ATS in its last ten in such instances. 

Charlotte also plays with revenge after a 115-91 loss at New York earlier in the season, and note that the Hornets are 3-1 ATS in their last four in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss vs. an opponent.

Grab the points, the play is indeed on CHARLOTTE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* UNDERDOG OF THE MONTH on Vanderbilt.

No outright here, but much closer than expected in my opinion.

Tennessee is 14-4 and clearly the better team, but it's just 2-2 in true road games.

Vanderbilt is 5-13, but a more respectable 5-6 at home.

Tennesseee is off three straight SU/ATS wins in a row, but note that the Vols are in fact just 3-6 ATS in their last nine after three or more SU/ATS victories in a row. With a home game vs. 16-3 South Carolina up next, the visitors are going to get caught looking ahead here and take the foot off the gas down the stretch.

The Vols won this game 66-65 as ten-point dogs last year, and while I'm not calling for the oturight upset this time around, everything is definitely set up to be another tight and competitive battle this time around as well.

Off five straight SU losses, I think the Commodores are now undervalued here at home.

Grab the points, thep lay is VANDERBILT.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* ATS BLOOD-BATH on the Wizards.

With nearly 70% of the early public money on the home side, we're going contrarian with this play. 

Both teams are terrible. Both are evenly matched. In a contest that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'll gladly grab the points.

Washington is off six straight losses, while Detroit just snapped a three-game slide with a win over Charlotte here in its most recent action.

With a much more high-profile game here at home vs. the Thunder tomorrow night though, I believe the home side gets caught "looking ahead" here.

Washington plays with revenge after a 129-117 home loss as a six-point favorite to the Pistons in mid January, and note that the Wizards are 3-1 ATS in their last four in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent.

While I do think an outright is possible, let's grab the points here with WASHINGTON.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* TOTAL BK on the Raptors.

With nearly 75% of early public money on the Clippers, we're going contrarian with this one boys.

LA is just 9-10 on the road. It's off three straight SU/ATS home wins, but note that the Clippers are just 1-3 ATS in their last four after three or more straight SU/ATS wins in a row.

And with a much tougher and more high-profile game at Boston tomorrow night, not only does this set up as a "letdown" spot, but also  "lookahead." Add those two factors together and you get TRAP GAME!

The Raptors play with revenge here as well after a 126-120 loss at LA at the start of the month. 

The Raptors have now lost seven of their last eight, including three in a row both SU/ATS, but note that Toronto is still 8-4 ATS in its last 12 after three or more straight SU/ATS setbacks in a row.

Toronto has had three nights off to prepare fo this one and I expect it to make the most of it. Despite who is on the court tonight, this is a great situational play for the home side.

Grab the points, the play is TORONTO.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* MID-MAJOR MAULING on Marist.

The overall situation that each team finds itself coming into this one, combined with the numbers/trends make the visiting side the correct call here in my opinion and while I do think an outright victory is possible, the official call will be to grab as many points as you can.

Marist is 9-7 and Niagara is 9-9. The Red Foxes are 4-5 on the road, while the Purple Eagles are 3-5 at home.

Marist has been trading wins/losses over its last four games. It beat Niagara 61-52 as a two-point dog in this game at home last year. 

Niagara has won two straight on the road as an underdog, but now back here at home, I think the Purple Eagles are the ones overvalued here.

The bottom line here is that these evenly matched teams will take this one right down to the wire and whichever side has its hands on the ball last is likely going to be the victor.

Because of that, I'm grabbing the points with MARIST.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* WEST COAST GOY on Pacific.

I'm not predicting an outright win here or anything obviously, but I do think this is WAY too many points for the home side to be giving up.

Pacific is 6-14, including just 1-8 on the road, while Saint Mary's is 14-6, including 8-3 at home. The Gaels have hit a favorable part of their schedule as well. 

Winning though at times, has a way of leading to complacency, while losing can lead to motivation.

Pacific has lost five straight, but note that the Tigers are 7-3 ATS in their last ten after five or more SU losses in a row.

Pacific has lost four straight conference matchups, but did play the Dons to OT in their first conference matchup. 

But look for the home side to take the foot off the gas in a big way as the game comes down the stretch and for the the visiting side to keep it respectable with a decent effort down the stretch.

As stated off the top, I'm not predicting an outright victory, but I do think this is a huge spread. So grab the points, the play is indeed on PACIFIC.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* MONEY-BOMB on the Rockets.

Boston is just 12-9 on the road this year. It's also now just 20-1 at home after falling 102-100 to the Nuggets last time out.

With a much more high-profile and difficult game tomorrow in Dallas though, I think this sets up as a trap for the visitors here now in Houston, as they suffer the letdown from the first home defeat, while also getting caught looking ahead to tomorrow's contest.

Normally I wouldn't be playing on Houston after a 127-126 OT loss here to Utah just last night. But the Rockets were competitive in defeat. They're 20-21 overall, but 16-6 at home. 

It was a disappointment last night, but I still say that the home side comes to play here in this favorable spot.

I'm not calling for an outright upset or anything, but I do believe for sure that the stage is set for a much tighter battle than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.

Grab the points, the play is HOUSTON.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BLOOD-BATH on Colorado State.

UNLV is 9-7 overall, including 2-1 on the road, while Colorado State is 14-3, including 9-1 at home. 

The Runnin Rebels are 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS in their last three after a 68-68 upset road win at Boise State last time out. Note though that UNLV is in fact just 1-3 ATS in its last four after three or more ATS victories in a row.

Colorado State snapped a two-game slide with a tighter-than-expected 78-69 OT win over Air Force in their most recent action. The Rams have now lost three straight ATS, but note that CSU is in fact a wallet-expanding 7-2 ATS in its last nine after three or more ATS losses in a row.

Look for CSU to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish and lay the point with confidence.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BIG SKY GOY on Weber State.

I'm expecting the home side to not only win this game, but to do so in blowout fashion.

Eastern Washington is 9-7 overall, but ust 4-7 on the road. Weber State is 11-6 overall, including 7-0 at home. 

The Wildcats won't be taking anything for granted here though after back-to-back upset losses as favorites on the road. They also play with revenge after falling to EWU 89-82 as 1-point favs in this contest last year. 

Eastern Washington has been on a role of late, winning five straight SU and nine straight ATS, but note that the Eagles are in fact just 3-6 ATS in their last nine after five or more SU victories in a row.

The general betting public is all over the visitors here as well with nearly 70% of the early money on Eastern Washington.

We're going contrarian here with this great "situational" play.

The play is WEBER STATE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Raptors.

I love the way this one sets up for the home side and while I clearly believe that the Raptors can win this one outright, my official call will be to grab as many points as you can.

Miami is 12-9 on the road, but after three straight SU/ATS victories in a row, and with a game at home vs. Atlanta after this, I say this sets up as minor letdown spot for the visitors.

No such luxury for the Raptors, who are 15-25 overall and off four straight SU losses and three straight ATS losses.

Toronto does indeed play with revenge here though after a 112-103 loss here to Miami as a 3.5-point favorite back in early December, and note that the Raptors are 4-1 ATS in their last five in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent.

As mentioned above, I absolutely believe the outright win is possible, but the official call is to grab as many points as you can with TORONTO.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BK on the Lakers.

OKC is 27-11 and 11-6 on the road, while LA is 20-21 overall, but 14-7 at home.

The Thunder have won four straight SU and three straight ATS, but note that OKC is just 1-3 ATS in its last four after three or more straight ATS victories in a row.

And with another very difficult game tomorrow night here vs. the Clippers, this is also a "look ahead" spot for the visitors.

The Lakers are just 1-2 SU in their last three, and 0-3 ATS. Note though that LA is 7-4 ATS still in its last 11 after three or more straight ATS losses in a row.

Look for the desperate home side to risk life and limb to get back into the winner's circle here this evening.

Lay the short points, the play is LA.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* SITUATIONAL BLOWOUT on Colorado.

USC is 8-8, including just 1-3 on the road, while Colorado is 11-5, including 9-0 at home.

USC is off a 72-64 loss to Washington State as a six-point favorite, and I think it'll struggle to keep pace with the Buffs down the stretch.

Colorado has now lost three straight SU/ATS conference road contests, but note that the Buffs are 7-3 ATS in their last ten after three or more straight SU/ATS losses in a row.

Lay the number and expect a rout. The play is COLORADO.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BIG WEST GOY on Cal Poly Slo.

This one sets up well from a situational stand point for the home side.

UC San Diego 10-6, including 3-3 on the road, while Cal Poly Slo is 4-13, including 3-4 at home.

After four SU victories and five straight ATS wins though, I think the visiting side is now overvalued here. Especially with a road game at No. 1 UCI this coming week. This is a classic letdown + look-ahead = TRAP GAME. 

The Mustangs have lost five straight after a 71-56 setback at UCRV, but note that Cal Poly Slo is in fact a near-perfect 4-1 ATS in its last five after five or more SU losses in a row.

I'm not predicting an outright upset or anything, but I do expect the home side to go down fighting until the final horn.

Grab the points, the play is CAL POLY SLO.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* PAC 12 GOY on Washington State.

While I do think an outright win is a possibility, in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can in a contest that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last.

Washington State is 10-5 and USC is 8-7. The Cougars though have now lost four straight ATS after their most recent 89-84 loss to Oregon as a 2.5-point favorite. That's now back-to-back conference losses as a favorite and despite the last setback though, note that WSU is still 8-4 ATS in its last 12 after three or more straight ATS losses in a row. 

USC is coming off back-to-back conference home wins over Cal and Stanford. The Trojans were big favorites in each and covered, but now I feel they're getting a little TOO much respect here.

Honestly the way these teams matchup, I feel that the visitors have a legitimate shot at bouncing back and winning this one outright, while at the same time, everything now points to a classic letdown in opinion for the home side.

Grab the points, the play is indeed on WASHINGTON STATE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* MW GOY on Air Force.

With over 75% of the early public money on the 14-1 home side, me and my clients are going to go the other way and grab the 7-6 Air Force Falcons, who are 3-1 on the road. Yes, Nevada is 8-0 at home, but I still think this is WAY too many points for the Wolfpack to have to cover here.

With 10-4 Boise State coming to town this weekend, will Nevada get caught "looking ahead?!" It very well could. The possibility is there for sure anyways.

No such luxury for Air Force though, which has lost four straight SU/ATS. That however is significant to note here as despite falling 88-60 to Utah State last time out, the Falcons are still 8-4 ATS in their last 12 after three or more straight SU/ATS setbacks in a row.

The conditions are all correct here for a much tighter battle than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.

Grab the points, the play is AIR FORCE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BAIL-OUT BLOOD-BATH on the Lakers.

The Lakers already beat the Clippers this year 130-125 in OT here on November 1st. The Lakers would go on shortly after to win the In-Season Tournament, but they've since come back down to Earth and enter having lost three straight SU and ATS. 

That's important to note though, as the Lakers are in fact 7-2 ATS in their last nine after three or more straight SU/ATS losses in a row.

I don't usually play against teams that are playing with revenge, but after five straight SU/ATS victories in a row, I believe the Clippers are now getting a little TOO much respect here from the oddsmakers (and public, with nearly 70% of the early public money on the Clippers!), as the Clippers are just 1-4 ATS in their last five after five or more straight SU/ATS victories in a row. 

The Clippers welcome Phoenix here tomorrow, so this is a "look ahead" position as well.

While the outright win is clearly not out of the question, my official call is to grab as many points as you can with the LAKERS.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BLOOD-BATH on Cincinnati.

While I'm not calling for the outright win, I definitely think this is too many points for the home side to be covering here.

Cincinnati is 10-2 and BYU is 12-1. The Bearcats are off the 76-68 win over Evansville, but despite not covering the spread for a fourth straight time, note that the Bearcats are still 7-2 ATS in their last nine after three or more straight ATS losses in a row.

BYU is 4-1 SU in its last five and 3-0 ATS in its last three, but that's also significant to note here as the Cougars are just 3-7 ATS in their last ten after three or more straight ATS victories in a row.

These teams are more evenly matched than what this spread is suggesting. So grab the points, as the play is indeed on CINCINNATI.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* REVENGE BK on the Hawks.

The Hawks do indeed play with revenge here after a SU/ATS loss in OKC back in October, and note that ATL is 7-3 ATS in its last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss as a favorite vs. an opponent.

Atlanta just broke a four-game slide with a win, but it's had a few nights off to rest. 

OKC is red hot, winner of five straight, but after an upset win over Boston at home just last night, and when taking into account the revenge factor, everything points to this being a trap/letdown for the visiting side.

And while I clearly believe the outright win is a possibility, the official call is to grab as many points as you can with ATLANTA.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BIG TEN GOM on Rutgers.

I'm not calling for an outright win. I'm not trying to pretend that Rutgers is a great team that's just had some bad breaks to open the year.

Ohio State is the better team in this fight, but situationally this one sets up great for Rutgers to, at the very least, comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch with the ample amount of points that they've been afforded in this one. 

The Scarlet Knights are 8-4 and the Buckeyes are 11-2. The Scarlet Knights are 1-1 on the road this year.

The Buckeyes enter on a three-game win streak after beating WVU in OT in the Legends of Basketbal Showcase. Despite being 7-1 at home this year, I suspect a bit of a mental letdown here finally from Ohio State after that big victory.

Rutgers may be 0-3 ATS in its last three, but it's a near-perfect 7-1 ATS in its last eight after three or more ATS losses in a row.

This one sets up great from a situational stand point for the SCARLET KNIGHTS.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE GOW on the Warriors.

Typically I don't side with the public, but that's not always the case. I think the 15-16 Warriors (9-8 at home) are going to take advantage of this spot.

The Magic are 19-13, but just 7-9 on the road. Orlando is going to get caught "looking ahead" here to its game at Sacramento tomorrow, followed by a contest at Denver.

The Warriors come in desperate to snap a three game slide, but note that Golden State is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after three or more straight SU losses in a row. 

With the Nuggets coming to town next, this becomes a very important "must win" game for the home side.

Lay the points, the play is GOLDEN STATE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* HORIZON LEAGUE GOM on Oakland.

While I feel the outright win is possible, in a contest that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points.

The Golden Grizzlies are 6-8 overall and 3-5 on the road, while the Youngstown State Penguins are 10-3 overall, including 7-0 at home. 

This is a classic over-reaction though by the general betting public, with the majority of the money on the home side here.

Oakland has played some tough teams and while it's 0-3 SU/ATS in its last three, note that the Grizzlies have performend well in this spot for bettors by going 4-1 ATS in their last five after three or more SU/ATS losses in a row.

Look for the hungrier visiting side to, at the very least, keep this one close enough to cover with the points.

Grab the points, the play is indeed on OAKLAND.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BIG SKY GOM on Sacramento State.

Sacramento State is 3-9, including 0-1 in Big Sky action, while Eastern Washington is 5-7, and 1-0 in league play.

These teams are very even defensively, with Sacramento State conceding 72.7 PPG so far, and Eastern Washington allowing 72.9. 

The Eagles' stellar home numbers have the general betting public rushing to the window, but in my estimation this spread is now just a little TOO big for the home side to cover.

So grab the points, the play is SACRAMENTO STATE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* REVENGE BK on the Clippers.

Normally I stay away from "public" plays, but despite the majority of the money on the Clippers tonight, I do really love the way this one sets up for the home side, so much so in fact that I've stamped this one with top-rated BOOKIEKILLER status.

This is just a great situational play. LA does play with revenge here after a 105-101 loss here as an eight-point favorite in early November. Things have changed since then though.

LA is 12-4 at home, while Memphis is just 8-9 on the road.

Note as well the the Clippers are 7-3 ATS in their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. LA broke a two-game slide with a win over Charlotte last time out, but it's lost three straight ATS, which is important to take note of as well as the Clippers are in fact 4-1 ATS in their last five after three or more ATS losses in a row.

Memphis comes in off a humbling 142-105 loss at Denver just last night, snapping a four-game win streak. With a couple nights off before a home date on New Year's Eve vs. the Kings, this definitely sets up as a "trap" for the visitors as well in my opinion.

All things considered, I believe this line could/should in fact be a lot larger. The play is indeed on LA.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BIG WEST GOM on Cal State Fullerton.

While I clearly feel the outright win isn't out of the question, in the end I'll recommend that you grab as many points as you can.

Big West Conference action here and I just can't understate how important I feel that the home-court advantage really will prove to be for the Titans.

Cal State Fullerton comes in playing its best basketball of the season in winning five of its last six. With a tough upcoming road trip at Hawaii and UC Irvine, this contest takes on added importance for the Titans.

LBSU is off five straight SU wins and three straight ATS victories, but that's significant to note here as Long Beach State is in fact just 2-6 ATS in its last eight after three or more ATS victories in a row.

Grab the points, the play is CAL STATE FULLERTON.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Lakers.

The Lakers have sucked since winning the Play In Tournament, but after four straight losses, I think LA will, at the very least, keep this one close enough to cover with the spread.

The Lakers play with the added incentive of "revenge" as well after a 133-110 loss to OKC on November 30th, and note that the Lakers are 7-3 ATS in their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS loss vs. an opponent.

LA has a game vs. the Celtics on X-Mas Day, but it won't be looking past this bounce-back revenge opportunity.

The Thunder have won and covered in three straight against the best teams in the West, but with three nights off after this before another home game, I say the home side gets caught "looking ahead" here.

Grab the points, the play is LA.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on Vanderbilt.

I'm not predicting an outright upset or anything, but I do think that the home side will take the No. 23 ranked home side will take the foot off the gas in the second half as it gets caught looking ahead to the X-Mas Break.

Memphis has now won four straight. Vanderbilt on the other hand has dropped three straight, both SU and ATS.

That however is significant for us to take note of as the Commodores are 7-2 ATS in their last nine after three or more SU/ATS losses in a row.

Vanderbilt won't be happy with its 63-62 loss to Western Carolina.

The Tigers are clearly the better team here, but I say everything points to a second half "lapse." 

No outright, but closer than expected.

Grab the points, the play is VANDY.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* REVENGE BK on the Suns.

Phoenix has struggled this year because of injury issues. It's main line-up has barely played together.

I base my picks on many things, and this particular one is a great situational play that's backed by a strong ATS trend and that's the reason why I'm taking the points here.

Phoenix 7-3 ATS in its last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss vs. an opponent, and the Suns just fell 114-106to the Kings on December 8th.

With the Wolves coming to town tomorrow, I say the home side gets caught "looking ahead" as well.

Grab the points, the play is PHOENIX.

Good luck, NP