Sports Picks & Predictions

Champions League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between FC Porto and Arsenal at 3 pm et on Wednesday.

We saw a pair of low-scoring contests in Champions League action yesterday but I expect a different story to unfold, at least in this match on Wednesday. Note that Arsenal has seen each of its last five contests go 'over' 2.5 total goals. Meanwhile, FC Porto has scored first in seven of its last nine matches (Arsenal has found the back of the net first in five straight contests). I'm confident that both sides will come into this round knowing that they'll need to push rather than sit back and defend. We're talking about two of the youngest teams remaining in the Champions League this year. Porto in particular can be exposed at the back end, particularly on the outside. It's a similar story for Arsenal even if the Gunners are a little stronger between the sticks with goalkeeper David Raya in fine form. I consider both sides to be underrated up front and I'm confident we'll see at least three total goals on Wednesday. Take the over (10*).

Champions League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Paris Saint-Germain and Bayern Munich at 3 pm et on Wednesday.

Bettors seem to be shying away at the prospect of backing the 'over' at a lofty 3.5 goals in the second leg of this Champions League matchup between PSG and Bayern Munich on Wednesday. Keep in mind, the first leg produced just one goal - that coming from Bayern Munich in stunning fashion. I'm anticipating more offensive fireworks this time around, however, noting that the German side will be without both Benjamin Pavard (suspension) and Lucas Hernandez (injury) on its back-line, not to mention Manuel Neuer between the sticks. It's worth noting that Neuer's replacement, Yann Sommer, has rated out poorly in each of his last three matches in Bundesliga action. Speaking of rating poorly, PSG keeper Gianluigi Donnaruma posted two exceptionally poor ratings in recent matches against Lille and Nantes in Ligue 1 action. We know both of these sides are clinical in their attack and I like the fact that PSG will need to be on its front foot down a goal by aggregate here. There's no reason to think we see the French side sit back in hostile territory on Wednesday and I believe that lends itself to a high-scoring affair. While laying the juice to play the 'over' at 3.0 is tempting here, I believe we're well-suited to take it on at 3.5 with a plus-money return (at the time of writing). Take the over (10*).

Serie A Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Napoli and Juventus at 2:45 pm et on Friday.

I really like the way this one sets up as a cagey, low-scoring affair between the top two sides in the Serie A table on Friday in Naples.

You would have to go back eight matches between these two Italian rivals to find the last time a game totalled more than three goals with four of the last seven meetings staying 'under' 2.5 total goals.

While Juventus finds itself as the decided underdog ahead of this clash, it has conceded a grand total of only four goals in seven 'away' matches in Serie A play this season. It's a similar story for Napoli from a defensive standpoint as it has allowed only six goals in eight home matches.

Both squads enter in fine form, particularly at the back line. You'd be hard-pressed to find two teams with stronger defensive units, certainly in Italy. Napoli's four-man back line rates out about as high as it gets based on my own metrics. Juventus' back line rates only slightly lower but we can anticipate the visitors also playing a little more conservatively here, helping their cause in trying to contain Napoli's opportunistic attack up front.

Since returning to league play post-World Cup, Napoli has given up one goal in two matches while Juventus has yet to concede through a pair of contests. Of note, you would have to go back six matches across all competitions to find the last time a game involving Juventus went 'over' 2.5 total goals. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on France pk (90 minutes) over Argentina at 10 am et on Sunday.

I'll take a flyer on France in the World Cup Final on Sunday as it looks to secure its second straight title going back to 2018. Argentina has been a great story in this tournament with Messi taking his last run at the trophy for his country. The fact that it has done so after many wrote it off following a tournament-opening loss to Saudi Arabia is impressive to say the least. I've been more impressed by France's complete body of work in this tournament, however. Even against a cagey Morocco squad in the semi-final round, when it was under siege for much of the contest, the French held strong and ultimately prevailed by a 2-0 score. You'd be hard-pressed to find any France starter rating out poorly in this tournament. Even goalkeeper Hugo Lloris has seemingly gotten stronger as the tournament has gone on, saving his best for that semi-final victory over Morocco. I do think Argentina has some weakness on its back line, particularly on the right side. Keeper Emiliano Martinez was strong against Croatia but has had an up-and-down tournament. While there's a good chance this contest ultimately needs extra time to decide, I'm willing to back France at a lower price as it looks to halt Argentina's five-game winning streak and claim the title of 'best in the world' once again. Take France pk (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Morocco and Croatia at 10 am et on Saturday.

Neither of these teams managed to find the back of the net in the semi-finals earlier this week but it wasn't for lack of trying. Morocco in particular was certainly deserving of at least one, maybe two goals against France, but ultimately fell by a 2-0 score. Here, I'm confident we'll see the upstart Moroccans 'go for it' in an effort to give their supporters a little something tangible to take away from this thrilling tournament. It's a similar story for Croatia, albeit it was a little more uninspiring in its 3-0 defeat at the hands of Leo Messi and Argentina in the semis. Like Morocco, we know what Croatia is capable of and I do expect it to also push for goal with virtually nothing to lose in this contest. Keep in mind, these two countries met in the Group Stage of this tournament, playing to a 0-0 draw. That was a predictably cagey affair with a lot on the line in the early stages of the tournament. This is a much different situation with both sides looking to put on a show and ultimately wrap up a consolation prize on Saturday in Qatar. I expect to see something of a 'slingshot effect' with both sides coming off so many tightly-contested, relatively low-scoring affairs (the 'under' 2.5 goals has come through in five of Croatia's last seven games and five of Morocco's last six contests). Take the over (8*).

My selection is on France over Morocco at 2 pm et on Wednesday.

While other squads have been flashier and grabbed more headlines in this tournament, France has simply gone about its business, advancing to the semi-final round thanks to a victory over England that some will call 'fortunate' with the Three Lions carrying the play for much of the second half. I like the make-up of this French squad as it prepares to face upstart Morocco on Wednesday, and am confident Les Bleus will move on to face Argentina in what would set up as a World Cup Final thriller. Credit Morocco for reaching this stage. We've backed them on more than one occasion but see this as the right time to jump ship. Despite missing a couple of key contributors, the Moroccans came up with an inspired performance against Portugal in the quarters. Here, I do think its lack of punch in the front half costs it against a French side that is sure to capitalize on its opportunities. While I like the make-up of Morocco's back-line, I think it has been punching a little over its head in this tournament to this point and runs the risk of getting exposed by France here. Take France (8*).

My selection is on the first half 'over' between Croatia and Argentina at 2 pm et on Tuesday.

NOTE: I'm recommending laying the -150 or so to get the first half total at 0.5 goals in this contest.

Not an overly difficult choice to pay the tariff to go 'over' the 0.5-goal first half total in Tuesday's much-anticipated showdown between Croatia and Argentina. The latter enters this contest playing some truly inspired football ever since that stunning tournament-opening loss to Saudi Arabia. Argentina has made its money putting the opposition on its back foot early more often than not, scoring first in nine consecutive matches across all competitions. It has led 1-0 or better at the half in seven of its last nine contests overall. Croatia won't go away quietly though, we know that after it rallied for an incredible victory over tournament favorite Brazil in the quarter-final round last Friday. The Croatians have managed to find the back of the net in three consecutive matches against Argentina, including a 3-0 victory in Group Stage play at the 2018 World Cup. If there's a weakness on Argentina its at the back line where Molina, Romero and Tagliafico in particular have been less than impressive. Keeper Emiliano doesn't rate out particularly well either, despite his penalty heroics against the Netherlands last Friday. Take the first half over (8*).

My selection is on the 'draw' between France and England at 2 pm et on Saturday.

With so little to choose from between these two tremendous squads, the 90-minute 'draw' is the only way I can play this quarter-final showdown on Saturday. Should either side fall behind, an equalizer will never be far off with both teams boasting the experience and scoring prowess to answer at any given moment. While one might think England has the advantage given it hasn't conceded a single goal in its last three matches while France hasn't recorded a clean sheet in any of its last five contests, the French are favored, albeit slightly, for a reason here. I have this one finishing all square at ones through 90 minutes, but I certainly prefer the value being offered with the 'draw' rather than going 'under' the total. Note that the last time these two countries met in a tournament fixture was at the 2012 Euros, when they played to a, you guessed it, 1-1 draw. Take the draw (8*).

My selection is on Croatia +1.5 goals over Brazil at 10 am et on Friday.

I don't think we see Croatia - which was a finalist in the 2018 World Cup - go away quietly the way South Korea did at the hands of mighty Brazil in the knockout stage. Keep in mind, the Checkered Ones enter this match riding a 10-game undefeated streak and know how to keep the opposition in check with four of their last five contests staying 'under' 2.5 total goals. Croatia has proven to be incredible difficult to break down in this tournament with the foursome of Juranovic, Lovren, Gvardiol and Sosa rating out near the top in terms of defensive back lines. Keeper Dominik Livakovic is also coming off his best performance of the tournament in the knockout stage thriller against Japan. Brazil turned in its most dominant performance of the tournament in a rout of South Korea but now has nowhere to go but down in my opinion. I still feel it can be had in the back and with Croatia's Ivan Perisic coming off a 'turn back the clock' performance, he's the man to watch in this contest. Take Croatia +1.5 goals (8*).

My selection is on Switzerland +0.5 goals over Portugal at 2 pm et on Tuesday.

I'll take a flyer on Switzerland grabbing a half-goal against Portugal here as I believe there's a considerably better than 50/50 chance that this one is all-level (or the Swiss leading) after 90 minutes. Portugal has impressed in the tournament so far but it's not as if it has been blowing the doors off the opposition. Switzerland has been down this road before, giving tougher opponents all they can handle in previous tournament. In other words, I don't believe the stage is too big for the Swiss here. They were in a pressure-packed situation against Serbia last Friday and came through with flying colours. I believe both sides will ultimately prove difficult to break down in this one, with a 1-1 result after 90 minutes a quite likely outcome. The status of Swiss keeper Yann Sommer will obviously be important to keep an eye on leading up to the match. If he's able to man the goal, I would consider sprinkling a little on the Swiss three-way moneyline as well here. Take Switzerland +0.5 goals (8*).

Knockout Stage Game of the Year. My selection is on Morocco +1 goal over Spain at 10 am et on Tuesday.

I think a lot of casual bettors saw all they needed from Spain in its boot-stomping 7-0 rout of Costa Rica two weeks ago. Since then, the Spaniards have managed a draw against Germany and a defeat at the hands of Japan to ultimately finish second in their group, leading to a date with upstart Morocco in the knockout stage on Tuesday. This is likely the matchup that Spain actually wanted - that was evident in its late game activity when trailing against Japan last time out. I do think this could be a 'be careful what you wish for' situation, however, as Morocco can give it trouble in my opinion. Here, we'll note that Morocco in now undefeated in its last nine matches across all competitions. It has successfully put the opposition on its back foot more often than not, striking first in six of its last eight contests. So again, its short-term success in this tournament hasn't been a fluke by any means. Of course, facing Spain is no easy task as it has scored first in five consecutive matches. With that being said, this is a side that has only managed to come away victorious in five of its last 10 contests overall with three of those victories coming by more than a single goal. I believe there's a good chance we see these two sides all square through 90 minutes, similar to what we saw from Japan and Croatia yesterday. But rather than play the 'draw' we'll give due respect to Morocco and catch a little insurance in the process. Take Morocco +1 goal (8*).

My selection is on South Korea +1.5 goals over Brazil at 2 pm et on Monday.

While it faces a considerable challenge in this contest, I'm not going to write off South Korea just yet. Yes, Brazil entered as the tournament favorites and despite the stunning loss to Cameroon at the end of group stage play we haven't really seen anything to indicate it should be knocked from its pedestal. However, we're catching an insurance goal here, and also being offered a plus-money return. South Korea has produced some thrilling moments already in this tournament, needing a victory over Portugal, and getting it after trailing 1-0 to advance in its final match of the group stage. I don't expect it to back down here. I actually like the fact that it was severely outclassed when these two teams met back in June (Brazil won that contest 5-1). Adjustments are obviously necessary and I'm confident we'll see those adjustments pay dividends for South Korea. Take South Korea +1.5 goals (8*).

My selection is on Japan +0.5 goals over Croatia at 10 am et on Monday.

We've seen a straight-forward and rather uneventful first four matches in the knockout round of this tournament but I expect that to change on Monday. First on the card is World Cup 2018 finalist Croatia taking on Japan in a favored role. I don't believe there's much separating these two squads and in a match that projects to be very low-scoring (the standard total is set at 2.0), I'm confident the Samurai Blue can keep proceedings level through 90 minutes. Croatia has of course been here before and while it has gone undefeated through three matches in this tournament, I haven't been overly impressed, with its lone victory coming off a Canadian squad that wasn't necessarily ready for the big stage. In its other two matches, Croatia failed to find the back of the net and I think it could be hard-pressed to do so again here. Japan has failed to record a clean sheet in any of its last four matches but there's comfort in the fact that it yielded just a single goal in all four of those contests. Take Japan +0.5 goals (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Japan and Croatia at 10 am et on Monday.

With little separating these two squads and both proving able to keep their opponents' on their back foot in this tournament, I'm expecting goals to come at a premium in their knockout stage fixture on Monday. Japan has gone its last four matches without recording a clean sheet but it didn't give up more than a single goal on any occasion over that stretch. The fact that it held Germany and Spain each to a goal in the group stage of the tournament was certainly encouraging. Croatia reached the final at World Cup 2018 and a similar path isn't out of the question here following an undefeated run through the group stage. However, it's not always pretty (it was held off the scoresheet in two of three group stage matches) and I believe it will have a difficult time breaking through against Japan as well. Even if it does, it has the capability and interest in parking the bus from there. I believe a 0-0 or 1-0 scoreline through 90 minutes is well within the realm of possibility here. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'draw' between Senegal and England at 2 pm et on Sunday.

I think there's a good chance we see this one go to penalties but will simply call for the 'draw' in the first 90 minutes as there's little to choose between these two sides. England has impressed at times through the Group Stage of this tournament but it's not as if it enters on an extended run, having only gone undefeated in its last four matches. Senegal should enter with confidence knowing that it has been 'first to score' in eight of its last nine contests, having suffered just one defeat in its last six matches across all competitions. There's every reason for this to be a cagey affair with neither squad willing to give an inch. I just don't think this one is as straight-forward as most believe as Senegal has always proven to be a 'tough out' and will have the element of surprise working in its favor here, with England seeing it for the first time. Note that the Three Lions have been all square after 90 minutes in four of their last eight contests overall. Take the draw (8*).

My selection is on the 'draw' (90 minutes) between the USA and Netherlands at 10 am et on Saturday.

I'm willing to take a shot at this match being all square after 90 minutes as I don't see either side giving an inch in an intriguing knockout stage contest on Saturday. The Americans have certainly impressed to this point of the tournament and I don't believe this matchup is too big for them. The Dutch came into the tournament dealing with some key players banged up and now they're dealing with an illness that's running through their locker room as well. We've seen some uneven play from them to this point - the talent is unquestionably there but finding goals has proven to be a chore. Rather than backing the USA +0.5 goals, we'll go for the bigger payoff here, giving the Netherlands due respect as they do enter this contest riding an 18-match undefeated streak across all competitions. With goals likely tough to come by given the relatively low projected total, we'll take a flyer on the 'draw' here. Take the draw (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Ghana and Uruguay at 10 am et on Friday.

Ghana's two games so far in this tournament have been thrillers with each contest totalling five goals. I'll admit that I expected Ghana to be far more organized and stout defensively in this tournament but that simply hasn't been the case. Here, with Uruguay needing to push to secure advancement in this tournament (currently sitting in last place, two points behind second-place Ghana, I'm confident we'll see another relatively high-scoring affair. With Ghana having scored first in six of its last eight contests across all competitions, there's reason to believe the Uruguayans will be forced to go on the offensive early. Both sides have been vulnerable defensively in the World Cup so far, even if Uruguay has only yielded two goals through two contests. The two back lines rate out near the bottom of any defensive units in this tournament according to the numbers I use. The same goes for the keepers. Expect some fireworks in this one. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on South Korea +0.5 goals over Portugal at 10 am et on Friday.

Portugal has impressed through two matches in this tournament, securing all six points in victories over Ghana and Uruguay. I do think it faces a more cagey affair here against a desperate South Korea squad that currently sits last-place in Group H, needing a win and help to advance in the tournament. It's not as if Portugal's success has been long-lived. It has won just three matches in a row going back prior to the start of the World Cup. I like the fact that South Korea's back line rates out exceptionally well in this tournament, despite the fact that it yielded three goals last time out against Ghana. Remember, the South Koreans opened the tournament with a clean sheet in a nil-nil draw against Uruguay. I do think it's only a matter of time (and time is clearly running out) before South Korea shows some creativity in attack and ultimately pushes Portugal in that regard here. There's simply too much talent up front for the South Koreans to go away with a whimper. Take South Korea +0.5 goals (8*).

My selection is on the ‘over’ between Costa Rica and Germany at 2 pm et on Thursday.

I think we’re only going to realistically need one goal from Costa Rica to get ‘over’ this total of 3.5 on Thursday and considering Germany has conceded at least a goal in nine of its last 10 contests, I believe there’s a good chance of that happening here. Of course the Germans need to push at every opportunity as they sit in last-place in the group with plenty of work to do to advance. We know Costa Rica is vulnerable defensively as we saw it drop a 7-0 decision against Spain to open its tournament. We actually won with Costa Rica in its stunner against Japan but I feel there’s high-potential for it to concede three or more goals here, with its back-line continuing its tournament struggle. Take the over (8*).

Group Stage Game of the Year. My selection is on Germany -2.5 goals over Costa Rica at 2 pm et on Thursday.

We actually won with Costa Rica +1 goal against Japan in its most recent match so there is some level of respect for the CONCACAF side but I simply feel it's a 'wrong place, wrong time' situation against a vastly superior German squad on Thursday and will confidently lay the 2.5 goals with Die Mannschaft here. Despite the 1-0 victory last time out, I still have Costa Rica rating out poorly through two matches in this tournament to date. Keeper Keylor Navas might be the weakest link of all, which obviously spells trouble as he tries to keep a loaded German offense that's just bubbling under the surface and poised for a breakout performance here. Let's not lose sight of the fact that this is a Costa Rican side that is just one game removed from a 7-0 drubbing at the hands of Spain. Unlike yesterday's match between Mexico and Saudi Arabia, where the Mexicans needed to win by margin and couldn't quite close the deal, the Germans will undoubtedly be poised under the pressure and I look for them to do a much better job of capitalizing on their opportunities here. Costa Rica doesn't have that same level of talent or creativity up front as the Saudis possessed, even if it did take the latter until the final stages to finally secure a goal yesterday. German keeper Manuel Neuer hasn't been at his best through two matches in this tournament but this is a big spot for him to rise to the occasion and quite honestly, I don't expect him to be challenged much at all here. Take Germany -2.5 goals (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Saudi Arabia and Mexico at 2 pm et on Wednesday.

This has the potential to be the highest-scoring match on Wednesday's World Cup slate. Both lineups rate highly up front but poorly at the back-end (in this tournament to date). Al-Shehri ranks among the most dangerous strikers in World Cup play according to my ratings. The same goes for Hirving Lozano up front for Mexico. Both back-lines can be had. Mexican goalkeeper Guillermo Ochoa - one of the oldest players in the entire tournament - fared well in a 0-0 draw with Poland in the opener but struggled mightily against a tougher opponent in Argentina last time out. Saudi Arabia is capable of putting Ochoa under duress for extended stretches in this one and I'm confident it can deliver on at least one occasion. Meanwhile, the Mexicans need more than just a strong showing to advance - they need a fistful of goals and there is a path to that outcome with no one in the final-third of the field for Saudi Arabia capable of truly leaving their mark on this contest. Again, both sides are well-positioned to 'go for it' in this group stage finale and I'm confident we'll see at least three goals. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on Denmark over Australia at 10 am et on Wednesday.

I don't believe Denmark's World Cup journey ends here. Australia's stunning 1-0 victory over Tunisia puts the Danes on the back foot entering this contest on Wednesday, but I believe they're still well-positioned to advance from the group stage with a convincing win here. I haven't been overly impressed by anything Australia has done in this tournament to date. It was never really challenged the way we figured it would be against Tunisia last time out. The Aussie back-line still rates out quite poorly through two matches, largely due to the awful showing against France, admittedly. In stark contrast, Denmark gets stronger as you get into its final-third, with the trio of Christensen, Kjer and Andersen among the best defenders in the tournament and keeper Kasper Schmeichel also having performed well through two matches. I'm not going to let a late goal allowed against France lead me away from the Danes here as they more than likely advance with a victory. I do think it's worth paying the tariff to back them on the three-way line rather than laying the goal, however, simply due to the potential of them staking out a lead and then parking the bus. Take Denmark (8*).

My selection is on Tunisia +1.5 goals over France at 10 am et on Wednesday.

Short on time with kickoff fast approaching but we’ll take a shot with Tunisia now that +1.5 prices are more widely available. Tunisia the forgotten team in this group after a 1-0 loss to Australia. Still have a shot at advancing but need a win along with a DEN-AUS draw. Not outside the realm of possibility given how this tourney has proceeded. Tunisia can be a frustrating squad to break down and a positive result isn’t an absolute necessity for the French here. Take Tunisia +1.5 goals (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Senegal and Ecuador at 10 am et on Tuesday.

With kickoff fast approaching, I'll key my analysis brief. Ecuador knew it had to 'go for it' against the Netherlands last time out but I expect a much different story to play out here. Both teams are unlikely to give an inch here. I think the fact that Ecuador is so stout defensively was lost in the wash last time out as it was on the front foot in a big underdog role against the Dutch (that along with the fact that Holland got an early strike from Cody Gakpo). Senegal doesn't want to get involved in a fire-fight here and will keep its shape at any cost. A 0-0 or 1-0 result is certainly well within the realm of possibility. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on Uruguay +0.5 goals over Portugal at 2 pm et on Monday.

I can't help but feel Portugal will be hard-pressed to pick up a full six points in its first two matches of this tournament as it faces the prospect of a cagey affair against Uruguay on Monday. Portugal impressed in its opener and ultimately prevailed thanks in part to a somewhat questionable Cristiano Ronaldo penalty. If there was something negative to say about that overall performance, it was its form on the back line with Cancelo, Dias, Pereira and Guerreiro looking less than air-tight in defense. Keeper Diogo Costa rated out poorly in that 3-2 victory over Ghana as well. We won with the 'under' in Uruguay's tournament-opening 0-0 draw against South Korea. I do expect Uruguay to break the seal and find the back of the net for the first time in this tournament on Monday. However, this does project as a relatively low-scoring affair with the total set at 2.0. Depending on the earlier result between South Korea and Ghana, a draw should suit both Portugal and Uruguay just fine here. Noting that four of Uruguay's last five matches across all competitions have stayed 'under' 2.5 total goals, we'll confidently back it plus the half-goal here. Take Uruguay +0.5 goals (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Canada and Croatia at 11 am et on Sunday.

I really like the way this one sets up as a relatively high-scoring contest between two squads that appear to have 'no love lost' heading in. Both sides could certainly use the three points from this match with Canada off a 1-0 loss to Belgium and Croatia following up on an uninspiring draw with Morocco in their respective tournament openers. I'm confident the Croatians can put the Canadians on their back foot early on, noting that they've scored first in five of their last six matches. Canada couldn't break through against Belgium but certainly showed plenty of promise, taking the play to the much higher ranked squad in Wednesday's shutout loss. I'm confident we'll see the Canadians finally break through with their first World Cup goal in this match - I'm just not convinced it will be enough to come away with point(s), speaking to the potential of a 2-1 result. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on Morocco +0.5 goals over Belgium at 8 am et on Sunday.

I didn't come away one bit impressed by Belgium's tournament-opening 1-0 victory over Canada. That could have been a much different match were it not for a missed penalty from Alphonso Davies early on and the reality was, the Canadians took the play to the Belgians for the majority of the game's 90 minutes. Morocco may be considered an upstart off its draw with Croatia to open this tournament but I believe it is capable of going on a deep tournament run. Undefeated across its last seven matches in all competitions, look for Morocco to give Belgium all it can handle on Sunday, with a draw benefiting both teams in reality. Take Morocco +0.5 goals (8*).

My selection is on Costa Rica +1 goal over Japan at 5 am et on Sunday.

It doesn't get much worse than Costa Rica's 7-0 drilling at the hands of Spain in its World Cup opener earlier this week. That result should have bettors flocking to lay the goal with Japan - which pulled off a stunning 2-1 come-from-behind victory over Germany (we won with the 'over' in that match) - ahead of Sunday's match. I believe it's the wrong move, however. The Japanese took full advantage of an over-aggressive Germany attack, countering to perfection late in the second half to secure the match-winning goal. I fully expect to see Costa Rica settle into a frustrating defensive shell in this match, turning the tables on Japan as it looks to take advantage of the favored side's aggressiveness here. Despite what we saw from both sides earlier in the week, I believe the 'draw' is in play here. Take Costa Rica +1 goal (8*).

My selection is on Tunisia over Australia at 5 am et on Saturday.

As expected, Tunisia proved very difficult for Denmark to break down in its World Cup opener, in fact that task proved impossible as the two teams played to a 0-0 draw. Here, with a chance to take over top spot in the group, albeit short-lived perhaps depending on how France fares later on Saturday, I look for the Tunisians to take advantage. Australia entered the tournament in fine form, but that had a lot to do with the lukewarm competition it had faced recently. After a quick start against France in its opener, hope was quickly dashed. While Tunisia did look rather punchless offensively in its opener, I expect it to enjoy a breakthrough in short order here. Take Tunisia (8*).

My selection is on the Netherlands over Ecuador at 11 am et on Friday.

The Netherlands appeared to get stronger as the match wore on against Senegal in its opener. That was a tough opponent to break down. I don't expect Ecuador to present the same level of difficulty on Friday, however. Credit Ecuador for overcoming host nation Qatar in its tournament-opener - the first time in World Cup history that the hosts lost their first match of the tourney. With that being said, Qatar didn't offer much of a challenge at all in that contest. Netherlands presents a 'shock to the system' of sorts for Ecuador here, and not helping matters is the fact that veteran striker Enner Valencia suffered a knee injury in the opener. While he is expected to play on Friday, it's unlikely he'll be 100% healthy. Speaking of injuries, Netherlands superstar Memphis Depay gave his country 30 solid minutes in the opener, easing his way into action but appearing no worse for wear. Look for an even more significant contribution from him in this one. Take the Netherlands (8*).

My selection is on Qatar +1 goal over Senegal at 8 am et on Friday.

Host Qatar looked lifeless in its tournament-opening loss to Ecuador - the team that many had picked to finish in last place in this group. Needless to say, a far more inspired effort will be required in order for the hosts to keep their slim hopes of advancement in this tournament alive as they face Senegal on Friday. Senegal put forth a valiant effort but ultimately fell on two late goals against Netherlands in its opener. I believe grabbing the insurance goal with host nation Qatar is the right decision here, especially considering both squads have seen four of their last five matches stay 'under' 2.5 total goals. Last Sunday's match marked the first time in five contests that Qatar didn't strike first. I do think we see it find the back of the net for the first time in the tournament on Friday, ultimately giving Senegal all it can handle in a cagey affair. Take Qatar +1 goal (8*).

World Cup Game of the Week. My selection is on Iran +0.5 goals over Wales at 5 am et on Friday.

Entering this tournament, I felt that Wales would be hard-pressed to come away with a victory in a sneaky-tough group that includes USA, England and Iran. It managed to earn a draw against the Americans (we won with the draw in that match) thanks to a late converted penalty by Gareth Bale but I expect it to be given all it can handle against Iran again on Friday. The Iranians fell in a blowout against England in their World Cup opener. They were never competitive in that affair but I'm confident we'll see them bounce right back in a far more favorable matchup here. Despite the setback, we did see flashes of brilliance from the Iran attack. Here, I'm confident it will have more freedom to operate as it's unlikely to be under constant siege at the hands of a far more manageable Wales offense. Noting that Wales has conceded the first goal and also gone winless across its last six matches in all competitions, I'm comfortable grabbing the half-goal with Iran here. Take Iran +0.5 goals (10*).

My selection is on Ghana +1.5 goals over Portugal at 11 am et on Thursday.

Despite still boasting plenty of star-power, Portugal has been a bit of an afterthought heading into this tournament. Rightfully so, in my opinion. Should Cristiano Ronaldo even be given the starting nod up front given his recent form? Probably not but he'll be right there nonetheless. The Portuguese will have their work cut out for them trying to break down a typically tough last line of defense for Ghana. In their last seven matches across all competitions, only Brazil has managed to find the back of the net against the African side. It's been a case of 'feast-or-famine' for the Portugal offense in recent months. I think we're talking about a side that would be absolutely thrilled to come away with three points from this opener but I don't believe the path to that result is going to be straight-forward at all. Noting that the 'under' 2.5 total goals has cashed in four of Ghana's last five matches overall while it has rippled the net first in five of its last six contests, grabbing that insurance goal, even with the juice, is the right decision here in my opinion. Take Ghana +1.5 goals (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between South Korea and Uruguay at 8 am et on Thursday.

This is another play where you'll want to look for an alternate total and pay the juice to get it at 2.5 rather than the standard 2.25 or even 2.0 being offered at some books. In a group where all four teams are capable of rising up and advancing, I'm expecting a very cagey affair between South Korea and Uruguay on Thursday. I'm just not sure where the goals are going to come from in this matchup. Even if one team is able to gain the upper hand early, there's no guarantee the other side will be able to find the equalizer. While Uruguay is fielding an aging roster led by 35-year old Luis Suarez up front, Korea was struck a blow with Son suffering an eye injury in the lead-up to this tournament - an injury that is expected to require surgery. Uruguay is always a tough side to break down defensively, noting that it enters this tourney having yielded just one goal across its last seven matches in all competitions. Korea has been a little more forgiving in that regard but again, I'm unsure whether Uruguay has the squad to take advantage. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Cameroon and Switzerland at 5 am et on Thursday.

Do your line shopping for this play as I recommend paying the tariff to go 'over' a 2.0 rather than the standard 2.25 or even 2.5 being offered at some books. My reasoning behind this play is fairly simple. We've seen a string of low-scoring affairs in this tournament, including a number of dreaded 0-0 results. I do think we're going to see totals continue to shade lower - too low in this particular matchup in my opinion. Note that both squads get stronger as you move up the field. By that I mean both have their issues defensively with a number of defenders, not to mention both goalkeepers, entering this tournament in relatively poor form. Up front, it's a much different story. I'm confident we'll see Switzerland get off to a fast start here on the heels of a very strong showing at the Euros in Summer 2021. I also think Cameroon ultimately finds the back of the net once to help this total along. Take the over (8*).

Group Stage Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Canada and Belgium at 2 pm et on Wednesday.

While few expect Canada to make much noise in its first World Cup appearance in what seems like an eternity, there are those that feel Belgium may be a little less explosive than we've been accustomed to seeing entering Wednesday's opener. The absence of striker Romelu Lukaku certainly casts a heavy shadow over the Belgian side, but I'm confident we'll still see it thrive offensively against a Canadian side that isn't without its warts defensively. Milan Borjan checks in as one of the weakest goalkeepers in the entire tournament according to my own ratings. Miller and Johnston are wildcards at the back-end as they've performed well at the club level but it's a big jump from MLS to the World Cup stage and they'll have a trial by fire against one of the best squads in the World on Wednesday. This is without a doubt one of the weakest defenses across the board in the entire tournament. The question becomes whether the Canadians can break through offensively to help this total along and I do think they're catching the Belgians at the right time in that regard. Surprisingly, world class keeper Thibaut Courtois enters in less than top form after a string of poor performances, including against Egypt in a friendly warm-up match. Toby Alderweireld has also struggled in recent club play with Royal Antwerp - his responsibility is defending the middle of the field on the back line, an area I'm confident Canada can exploit with table-setter Alphonso Davies and Jonathan David looking to write a new chapter in Canadian soccer history. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Japan and Germany at 8 am et on Wednesday.

Off an unappealing 0-0 draw against Oman in a World Cup warmup match earlier this month, a lot of bettors might be hesitant to back the 'over' in Germany's tournament opener against a cagey Japan squad on Wednesday. I'm not the least bit concerned about the Germans finding the back of the net in this particular contest. Regardless what we've seen from Japan in matches leading up to this tournament (it has yielded just two goals in its last six matches across all competitions), I have it rated as the weakest defensive squad of the 'big three' in Group E. The good news is, Japan can score and should be an absolute handful for Germany on Wednesday. With Maeda playing for Celtic, Minamino for Monaco and Kamada for Eintracht Frankfurt, all three engines up front are certainly accustomed to being involved in high-scoring environments. It's Japan's back-end that I'm concerned about, especially against a clinical and dare-I-say underrated German squad. Keeper Shuichi Gonda has struggled at the best of times in his home country and most recently allowed a pair of goals in a friendly against Canada. While Germany has no such issues at the back-end with veteran Manuel Neuer between the sticks, I do think it could be vulnerable in the middle of its defense with Sule and Rudiger not exactly in peak form. Watch for Jamal Musiala as he looks to make a real name for himself on the international stage in this tournament. He enters in terrific form off a string of fine performances for Bayern Munich in Bundesliga play. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on Morocco +0.5 goals over Croatia at 5 am et on Wednesday.

Just a straight fade of a veteran Croatian side after it delivered five consecutive outright victories in as many matches heading into this tournament, not to mention the fact that the Checkered Ones reached the World Cup final back in 2018. I believe Morocco can be that upstart squad in Group F as it looks to build off an encouraging, albeit fruitless appearance in the 2018 World Cup. Like Croatia, Morocco enters this tournament playing well also. It hasn't exactly been the year of the upset, even after yesterday's stunner from Saudi Arabia, but I believe Morocco is capable of pulling off the minor upset in this Group F opener on Wednesday. Take Morocco +0.5 goals (8*).

My selection is on Poland pk over Mexico at 11 am et on Tuesday.

With glaring weaknesses at the back-end, Mexico will be hard-pressed to make it out of the group stage in this tournament. My own ratings have Mexican keeper Guillermo Ochoa as one of the weakest netminders in the entire tourney. This is a tougher than it seems opening match against a Polish squad that has suffered nothing but disappointment on the world stage but brings plenty of optimism into this particular tournament. With Robert Lewandowski leading the charge up front, a quick strike is never far off (even though he’s yet to score at the World Cup in one previous appearance). In stark contrast to that of Mexico, Poland actually boasts some true defensive stalwarts at the back-end not to mention a quality keeper between the sticks. We’ll back Poland on the goal-line to avoid an outright loss should the match end in a draw but my hope is we won’t need that insurance. Take Poland pk (8*).

My selection is on the ‘under’ between Tunisia and Denmark at 8 am et on Tuesday.

Tunisia will do everything in its power to fight to a 0-0 draw in its World Cup opener against Denmark. The Danes might just oblige them as they’re lacking the punch to break through offensively right out of the gates in this tourney, relatively-speaking of course. Note that Tunisia has held seven of its last eight opponents scoreless, with the exception being Brazil. On the flip side, you would have to go back seven contests to find the last time Denmark tallied more than two goals, which might just be asked of it to get this one 'over' the total. Even if one of these teams is able to find the back of the net, as the Danes are likely to do, the equalizer might just be a bridge too far. I’m surprised there are still 2.5’s to be found at the time of posting and we’ll pay the tariff to get that number here. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'draw' between USA and Wales at 2 pm et on Monday.

There's not a lot to choose from between these two squads and as such I believe we're being offered solid value to back the 'draw' in the respective World Cup opener for both. These two sides have stumbled lately with the Americans entering winless over their last three contests and Wales having failed to secure a victory in five straight matches. In a group that includes England, the expected front-runner and Iran, the side projected to pull up the rear, earning at least a point is imperative for both of these teams on Monday. The match projects to be low-scoring with the total set at 2.0 and I certainly agree with that notion. I simply feel that the go-ahead marker will be difficult for either side to come by should this one be level, as I expect it to be, in the second half. Take the draw (8*).

My selection is on the 'draw' between Qatar and Ecuador at 11 am et on Sunday.

I actually feel there's a good chance we'll have to wait another day until the first goal of World Cup 2022 is recorded. With that being said, rather than play the 'under' in a game where the value has been all but lost in that regard, I'll go for the more significant payout with the 'draw' in this tournament opener featuring host Qatar and Ecuador. The Maroon went undefeated across their four friendly warm-up matches but will face a tough test against a seasoned Ecuadorian squad here. Ecuador has seemed bent on making its matches as uneventful as possible and that has yielded some success. Here, I believe both sides would be comfortable coming away with a point before the Group Stage toughens up with dates against Senegal and the Netherlands. In fact, not gaining a point in this match would likely bring hopes of advancing in the tournament to an immediate halt for either side. I do think both squads offer just enough scoring punch to ultimately find the equalizer should they fall behind in this one. While the 'draw' may seem like the obvious choice here, that doesn't mean it's the wrong one. Take the draw (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Sevilla and Manchester City at 4 pm et on Wednesday.

Sevilla was embarrassed by Manchester City when these two squads met back in September, dropping a 4-0 decision, on it's home soil no less. Here, in the return match at Etihad Stadium, I look for the Spanish side to take a much more controlled approach and ultimately help keep this one 'under' the lofty total. Note that four of Manchester City's last five matches have stayed 'under' 2.5 total goals. Meanwhile, Sevilla has seen five of its last seven contests go 'under' that same total. With the English side having taken each of the last three meetings between these two squads, and Sevilla scoring only two goals across those three battles, the latter has a slim margin for error here. With that in mind, I do think we see Sevilla lean on its capable defense and also note that keeper Marko Dmitrovic is coming off consecutive tremendous showings against FC Kobenhavn in Champions League action and Rayo Vallecano in La Liga play. I'm not anticipating any sort of breakout performance from the Spanish side offensively as it has been limited to one goal or less in 10 of its last 11 matches across all competitions. Take the under (8*).

Champions League Game of the Month. My selection is on Celtic +2 goals over Real Madrid at 1:45 pm et on Wednesday.

Real Madrid blanked Celtic 3-0 when these two squads met in early September. While the Scottish side's hopes of advancing to the final 16 have been dashed, I do expect it to still put up a better fight as these two take part in a return match in Madrid on Wednesday. Celtic enters this contest having gone undefeated in its last five matches across all competitions. To illustrate its fine form, it has struck first in each of those five contests while carrying a lead into halftime in four of them. This will obviously be a stiff challenge for Celtic as Real Madrid searches for a victory to wrap up first place in Group F. With that being said, the Spanish side will be without Karim Benzema and might not have its usual fresh legs here in Champions League action, noting that it just wrapped up a month of October that featured nine fixtures. While Celtic have nothing to play for in this particular tournament, there is the matter of pride and after being shut out at the hands of Real Madrid on home soil two months ago, I'm confident we'll see it rise to the occasion here. It's worth noting that to find the last time Celtic lost a match by 3+ goals, you would have to go all the way back to that previous date with Madrid. Take Celtic +2 goals (10*).

My selection is on Napoli +0.5 goals over Liverpool at 4 pm et on Tuesday.

We previously won with Napoli in this same matchup back in early September and while we're not being offered such a generous price this time around - rightfully so - I still won't hesitate to go back to the well with the Italian side catching a half-goal. Napoli has incredibly gone undefeated across its last 28 matches in all competitions. It sits atop the Group A table in Champions League play, three points clear of today's opponent, Liverpool. Note also that Napoli has gone undefeated in its last four contests against the Reds, finding the back of the net at least once in all four matches. While some figure Liverpool is 'due' in this spot, that's not a word that belongs in our handicapping arsenal. Take Napoli +0.5 goals (8*).

Europa League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between HJK Helsinki and Ludogorets Razgrad at 12:45 pm et on Thursday.

With these two teams occupying the bottom two spots in the Group C table, we can anticipate both 'going for it' on Thursday in Helsinki. I like the way this one sets up as a relatively high-scoring affair. Note that Ludogorets Razgrad enters having gone winless in its last three matches, failing to record a clean sheet in any of those contests. Not surprisingly, its defensive deficiencies have led to the 'over' 2.5 goals going 7-2 in its last nine matches across all competitions. It's been a similar story for HJK Helsinki. It has seen each of its last five contests go 'over' 2.5 total goals. Neither side appears set on its back line - Helsinki's only saving grace has been keeper Conor Hazard but he's been relegated to bench duty on many occasions. Razgrad can be exploited on the right side of its defense and is likely to have little-used Simon Sluga between the sticks. While this isn't the most attractive matchup on paper, I do expect some offensive fireworks on Thursday. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Chelsea and AC Milan at 3 pm et on Wednesday.

Injuries are the story ahead of this Group E showdown on Wednesday. Both teams are missing a number of key contributors with Milan decidedly worse off. With that being said, I'm still confident the visiting Italian side can find a goal in this contest, noting you would have to go back nine matches to find the last time Chelsea recorded a clean sheet. Over that stretch, the English side has seen six of eight contests go 'over' 2.5 total goals. As for Milan, it checks in with five of its last six matches going 'over' that number, with both sides finding the back of the net in all six of those contests. Milan enters this match particularly vulnerable at the back-end due to injury-related absences and I'm confident we'll see the Blues take full advantage. Take the over (8*).

Champions League Total of the Month. My selection is on the first half 'over' between Ajax and Napoli at 3 pm et on Tuesday.

I expect plenty of fireworks in this showdown between Group A's top two teams in Amsterdam on Tuesday. Napoli sits atop the group having recorded two victories in as many tries in this stage. It will be in tough trying to hold off a terrific Ajax side here, however. Note that both teams check in having seen five of their last six matches go 'over' 2.5 total goals. More importantly for our purposes, both sides have shown the ability to strike first. Ajax has scored first in eight of its last nine matches while you would have to go back six contests to find the last time Napoli didn't find the back of the net first. In that vein, we've also seen Dutch side Ajax lead at halftime in seven of its last nine matches. However, it has gone winless in its last three contests across all competitions while Napoli brings an incredible 21-match undefeated streak into this one. Both sides are explosive up front. Mohammed Kudus has gone scoreless in his last three matches, including a pair of games for his national team, Ghana. I expect him to make amends with Ajax here. Napoli has the firepower to answer, however, noting that it just tallied three first half markers in its Serie A victory over Torino this past Saturday. Take the first half over (10*).

My selection is on Sporting CP +0.5 goals first half over Olympique Marseille at 12:45 pm et on Tuesday.

Sporting has been the class of Group D with convincing clean sheet victories over both Tottenham and Eintracht Frankfurt. It will need to avoid letting its guard down on Tuesday as it travels to France to challenge winless Marseille. I like its chances of at least getting off to a strong start in this one. Note that Lisbon has scored first in five of its last six matches across all competitions while Marseille has conceded the first goal in four of its last five contests. Noting that Sporting is just one match removed from a disappointing 3-1 defeat at the hands of Boavista in Primeria Liga play I don't envision it coming out flat here. There are advantages all over the field for Lisbon but particularly up front as Marcus Edwards and Francisco Trincao have been excellent while Marseille defenders Mbemba and Gigot have looked vulnerable. Marseille keeper Pau Lopez has been strong in his last few matches but not as sharp in Champions League play. Meanwhile, Sporting keeper Antonio Adan has recorded three consecutive clean sheets in Champions League action. Here, we're only asking for Sporting to keep it level through 45 minutes. Take Sporting CP +0.5 goals first half (8*).

My selection is on Iceland +0.5 goals over Albania at 2:45 pm et on Tuesday.

You have to go back seven matches to find the last time Albania posted a victory while Iceland has gone undefeated in its last five matches across all competitions. In fact, Albania hasn't found the back of the net more than once in any of its last 10 matches and when you consider it hasn't recorded a clean sheet in any of its last five meetings with Iceland, you can understand why it faces a tough hill to climb laying a half-goal here. There's nothing left to play for in Group 2 as Israel has already wrapped up top spot and the promotion that goes along with it. I don't expect Iceland to simply roll over, however, as it looks to take something away from this trip. Albania did deliver a 4-2 victory over Iceland on home soil back in 2019 but that was with a much different side that boasted plenty of firepower up front. Here, Albania is shorthanded at the midfield position with Endri Cekici and Keidi Bare sidelined due to injury. Take Iceland +0.5 goals (8*).

Nations League Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Bosnia & Herzegovina and Montenegro at 2:45 pm et on Friday.

I really like the way this one sets up as a tightly-contested, relatively low-scoring affair as the top two teams in League B, Group 3 do battle in Zenica on Friday. Through four matches, these are the only two squads in the group to have posted positive goal differentials. Note that we saw Bosnia and Montenegro match up back in early June, resulting in a 1-1 draw. Note that Bosnia enters this match having gone undefeated across its last five contests and will of course have the benefit of hosting this one. More importantly, it has seen seven of its last eight matches stay 'under' 2.5 total goals. It's a similar story for Montenegro as four of its last five contests have totalled two goals or less. Dzeko is certainly a big-time scoring threat up front for Bosnia but I like the setup of the Montenegro defense with Vucacic and Vesovic in excellent form and goalkeeper Milan Mijatovic having recorded a clean sheet in his most recent international match, a 3-0 win in earlier Nations League play against Romania. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on Latvia -1 goal over Moldova at 12 noon et on Thursday.

Latvia sits atop the Group 1 standings, five points ahead of second-place Moldova, which happens to be its opponent today. Credit Moldova for taking care of business against the group's weaker teams, Liechtenstein and Andorra but there's little to glean from its 2-0-1 mark in those three contests. Latvia enters this contest having reeled off victories in each of its last five games, going undefeated across its last eight overall. It has also recorded three straight wins in this series against Moldova. While the Latvians are particularly stout at the back-end with wing defenders Roberts Savalnieks and Raivis Jurkovskis in terrific form, the Moldovans have issues in that department. Goalkeeper Dorian Railean has been less than impressive, particularly in the squad's last two matches, including a 4-2 home defeat against Latvia. Defenders Bolohan and Craciun are exploitable as well. In a match that projects to be relatively high-scoring, I'm confident laying a goal with the tougher defensive side with home field being an added bonus. Take Latvia -1 goal (8*).

Nations League Game of the Month. My selection is on Ukraine pk over Scotland at 2:45 pm et on Wednesday.

While things are anything but normal back home, many Ukrainian players have at least gained some return to 'normalcy' with the return of league play and now they have the opportunity to once again play for their country in another key Nations League fixture on Wednesday in Glasgow. Ukraine has gone undefeated across its last three matches since suffering a bitter 1-0 defeat against Wales to miss out on World Cup qualification. Note that it has managed to strike first in seven of its last nine matches across all competitions and now faces a Scottish side that has played far too loose with four of its last five matches going 'over' 2.5 total goals. I say it has played too loose as it simply doesn't have the offensive firepower to consistently prevail in relatively high-scoring affairs. I like Ukraine's move to Andriy Lunin between the sticks. He is a Real Madrid man even if he hasn't had much opportunity with the Spanish side to this point. No Zinchenko for Ukraine on Wednesday but it still boasts a first class side with Yaremchuk, Yarmolenko and Mudryk, who has performed well for Shakhtar Donetsk recently. While Scotland is always a tough out in Glasgow, I do expect Ukraine to rise to the occasion here, noting that it currently sits just a single point ahead of the Scots atop the Group 1 standings with a return match on deck in Krakow. Take Ukraine pk (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Qarabag FK and FC Nantes at 12:45 pm et on Thursday.

The home side in this match, Qarabag FK, is in desperate need of a spark as it sits winless at the bottom of the Group G standings. I do expect it to find some success in Thursday's showdown with first-place squad FC Nantes. The French side has played precisely the type of style that should have Qarabag feeling confident heading into the match, noting that Nantes has seen both teams find the back of the net in six of its last seven contests. You would have to go back eight matches to find the last time Nantes recorded a clean sheet and I feel it will be hard-pressed to do so here as well. Qarabag has impressive struck first in four of its last five matches with four of those contests totalling more than 2.5 goals as well. Take the over (8*).

Europa League Game of the Month. My selection is on Sheriff Tiraspol +2 goals over Manchester United at 12:45 pm et on Thursday.

We won with Sheriff Tiraspol plus a half-goal in an away match against Omonia in Europa League action last week. Here, we get Tiraspol playing on its home soil in Moldova, knowing it has a monumental opportunity to stage an upset against mighty Manchester United. Sheriff checks in having reeled off three consecutive shutout victories, undefeated across its last eight matches. Manchester United dropped a 1-0 decision against Real Sociedad last week and now faces an uphill battle to climb the Group E standings. While the Red Devils are being priced as a massive favorite here, I believe Tiraspol is well-positioned due to its stingy nature. Note that Sheriff has seen four of its last five matches total less than 2.5 goals. Here, we're being given a massive head start with a two-goal cushion with the home side. Take Sheriff Tiraspol +2 goals (10*).

My selection is on Red Bull Salzburg +1.5 goals over Chelsea at 3 pm et on Wednesday.

We're getting excellent value backing Salzburg with an insurance goal at a near pk'em price on Wednesday. The upstart Austrian side, which boast a roster with an average age of less than 24 years, has gone undefeated across its last eight matches, scoring first in all eight of those contests. Salzburg has carried a lead into halftime in four of its last five contests. Meanwhile, you would have to go back seven matches to find the last time Chelsea recorded a clean sheet. I believe they'll be hard-pressed to accomplish that feat here as well, which would mean the Blues would need at least three goals to cover the standard goal-line being offered here. We've seen Chelsea play fairly loose lately with five of its last six matches going 'over' 2.5 total goals and I believe that plays into the hands of Salzburg in an underdog role on Wednesday. Take Red Bull Salzburg +1.5 goals (8*).

My selection is on Benfica +0.5 goals over Juventus at 3 pm et on Wednesday.

I have to take a flyer with Benfica plus the half-goal here, noting that the Portuguese side has incredibly reeled off 17 consecutive victories heading in. Juventus hasn't been its usual defensively sound self lately, failing to record a clean sheet in its last three matches, going winless over that stretch. Keep in mind, the Italian side has an average age north of 29 years. It will have its hands full with a Benfica squad that has struck first in eight of its last 10 matches across all competitions. Juventus desperately needs to at least come away with a point in this match noting that Benfica and PSG sit atop the Group H table following their respective victories last week. In a match that figures to be of the low-scoring variety, I'm comfortable grabbing the half-goal insurance with the visitors. Take Benfica +0.5 goals (8*).

Champions League Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between FC Kobenhavn and Sevilla at 3 pm et on Wednesday.

Both of these teams enter Wednesday's Champions League clash with deficiencies at the back end and I'm confident we'll see plenty of offensive fireworks in Copenhagen. Sevilla, despite playing in often goal-starved La Liga, has gone its last six matches without recording a single clean sheet. Of those six contests, five found their way 'over' 2.5 total goals. It's a similar story for Kobenhavn as it has seen eight of its last 10 contests sail 'over' 2.5 total goals. With that being said, both sides were actually shut out in their most recent Champions League matches. Sitting pointless at the bottom of the Group G standings, looking up at the likes of Manchester City and Borussia Dortmund (who also square off on Wednesday) you can understand why both sides would 'go for it' in this contest. A 2-1 result is the most likely outcome in my opinion and that's enough to push this one 'over' the total. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on Sheriff Tiraspol +0.5 goals over Omonia Nicosia at 3 pm et on Thursday.

I expect goals to come at a premium in this match (as indicated by the low posted total), for a couple of different reasons. The trends support such a call as Omonia Nicosia has seen seven of its last eight contests feature two goals or less while it's the same story for Sheriff Tiraspol in five of its last six matches. But more than that, these two teams will be desperate to come away with at least a point given the difficult nature of this group, which also features Manchester United and Real Sociedad. Neither team can afford to come away empty-handed here so I can't help but feel a draw is in the best interest of both. Also note that Sheriff enters this match having gone undefeated across its last six matches. While Omonia does have the benefit of playing this one at home, I'm not sure its enough to warrant the favorite tag. Take Sheriff Tiraspol +0.5 goals (8*).

Europa League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between FC Zurich and Arsenal at 12:45 pm et on Thursday.

This has the potential to be one of the highest-scoring matches on Thursday's Europa League board. Zurich brings a streak of seven consecutive matches finding the back of the net and I'm confident that run will remain intact here. Note that Arsenal has conceded in three consecutive matches. The Gunners have also seen each of their last five matches total 3+ goals. The same goes for Zurich in four of its last five contests. The Swiss side will obviously have its hands full here as Arsenal has shown that quick-strike ability, scoring first in eight of its last 10 matches. I feel that Zurich will be able to answer on its home soil, helping send this one 'over' the total. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on Club Brugge +0.5 goals over Bayer Leverkusen at 3 pm et on Wednesday.

There's not a lot to choose between these two sides but it is worth noting that Club Brugge has gone undefeated across its last five matches, winning four in a row entering Wednesday's clash with Bayer Leverkusen. I like the aggressiveness we've seen from Club Brugge early in recent matches as it has found the back of the net first in eight of its last 10 contests. Leverkusen has played a fairly wide-open style with six of its last seven matches reaching more than 2.5 total goals. Both teams are young and relatively inexperienced in Champions League play but Leverkusen is actually slightly younger with an average age just slightly over 25 years. I'm not convinced the German side is ever able to put this one away in Belgium. Take Club Brugge +0.5 goals (8*).

Champions League Game of the Month. My selection is on Napoli +0.5 goals over Liverpool at 3 pm et on Wednesday.

We're being offered excellent value with Napoli catching half a goal in the first leg of this Champions League matchup on Wednesday. Keep in mind, this match will take place in Naples, where Napoli took down Liverpool on two previous occasions in Champions League action in 2018 and 2019. Napoli enters Wednesday's match riding an incredible 16-match undefeated streak. Also note that Liverpool has conceded first in five of its last seven matches overall. Give me the younger Italian side with a chip on its shoulder as an underdog on its home pitch on Wednesday. Take Napoli +0.5 goals (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Columbus and Charlotte at 7:30 pm et on Saturday.

Charlotte has managed to find the back of the net in four straight and seven of its last eight matches across all competitions. Here, it finds itself in an underdog role away against Columbus, rightfully so given it has had a miserable time preventing goals away from home, giving up 13 in just seven road contests this season. Columbus hasn't exactly been explosive offensively, managing nine goals in six home matches, however it should have little trouble breaking through here, noting that you would have to go back five matches to find the last time Charlotte posted a clean sheet. With the Crew sitting in the bottom half of the MLS Eastern Conference standings it can make a serious move here as it sits just three points back of Charlotte - which finds itself in seventh place in the conference, three spots north of Columbus. Expect goals on Saturday night. Take the over (8*).

MLS Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between New England and Orlando City SC at 7:30 pm et on Wednesday.

You would have to go back eight meetings in this series to find the last time a match totalled 'under' 2.5 goals. Orlando City enters Wednesday's contest having seen seven of its last nine matches go 'over' 2.5 total goals while New England has had five of its last seven contests go 'over' that total. Not since April 30th, in a match where its opponent Inter Miami CF was handed two red cards, has New England posted a clean sheet - that's eight matches back. Orlando recorded a clean sheet against Toronto FC four matches back but that's been its only shutout posted in its last nine contests. With this match being played in Foxborough, with the Revolution looking to leapfrog Orlando - which currently holds down fifth place in the Eastern Conference - and jump into the playoff picture by grabbing all three points, I expect an aggressive gameplan from the home side here. That does leave it somewhat vulnerable, however, with Orlando having found the back of the net in seven consecutive trips to the pitch. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on Latvia -1.5 goals over Liechtenstein at 2:45 pm et on Tuesday.

It's difficult enough for teams in the higher Nations League divisions to get up for these last matches prior to a much-needed summer break, let alone a bottom-feeding minnow such as Liechtenstein. While Latvia paces the D division, Liechtenstein sits at the bottom, having managed just one goal in three Nations League matches - that coming against fellow minnow Andorra. Latvia only managed to defeat today's opponent by a 1-0 score in their previous meeting on June 6th. It wasn't for lack of trying, however, as the Latvians pressed for 90 minutes, possessing the ball at a 62% clip while firing an incredible 20 shots from inside the box. They made a whopping 376 accurate passes in the match compared to 196 by Liechtenstein. While Liechtenstein does have the benefit of home field advantage for this rematch, I expect Latvia to be all-business as it looks to wrap up a perfect group stage in convincing fashion. Take Latvia -1.5 goals (9*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Iceland and Israel at 2:45 pm et on Monday.

I'll keep it simple with this play. These two countries just met on the pitch back on June 2nd and the result was a 2-2 draw. Israel has now gone 10 consecutive matches without recording a clean sheet and I expect that streak to remain intact as it travels to face Iceland for a rematch on Monday. It's a similar story for Iceland as it had conceded at least a goal in seven consecutive contests prior to posting a 1-0 victory over minnow San Marino in an international friendly on June 9th. Both sides are vulnerable at the back-end and both have what I would consider second-rate keepers between the sticks. I also feel that both offensive attacks are very underrated - Israel in particular. Note that the 'over' 2.5 has now come through in nine of Israel's last 10 matches while Iceland has conceded first in five of its last six contests, with both sides scoring in six of its last eight. We'll take a flyer with the 'over' at a generous return again here. Take the over (6*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Switzerland and Portugal at 2:45 pm et on Sunday.

No Cristiano Ronaldo, among others, for Portugal on Sunday but I still expect it to find the back of the net without much resistance from a Swiss side that has had a miserable time dealing with numerous key defensive absences and ailments in Nations League play. Switzerland is now winless in its last five matches, failing to post a clean sheet in any of those contests and I would anticipate a similar story unfolding here. I do, however, expect the Swiss to find some offensive success here after getting shut out by Spain last time out. Of course, that was their second straight match failing to score after a 4-0 drubbing at the hands of the same Portugal side they'll face on Sunday back on June 5th. They're likely to face a slightly weaker version this time around, however, opening the door for them to perhaps close the gap. With Portugal having struck first in five of its last six matches, Switzerland will undoubtedly come out with an attacking mindset here as it looks to finally break the seal again having not scored since a 2-1 loss to the Czech Republic on June 2nd. Take the over (10*).

Nations League Game of the Month. My selection is on France over Austria at 2:45 pm et on Friday.

France has been rather unimpressive through its first two matches in Nations League action, coming away with just a single point thanks to a draw with Croatia last time out. We didn't see France's 'A' squad in that match but we're likely to here. Austria is off to an up-and-down start, delivering a 3-0 knockout punch against Croatia before falling to Denmark last time out. While it would certainly relish the opportunity to come away with at least a point here to improve its standing in the group, I expect it to be in tough. The Austrian starting XI is filled with Bundesliga talent, particularly at the back-end. I don't necessarily look at that as a positive - at least not as it prepares to go against a team like France. Note that the Austrians have found the back of the net in six consecutive matches across all competitions (since getting shut out by Denmark in World Cup Qualifying last October). I believe that streak could be in jeopardy here with France likely to go back to the experienced Hugo Lloris between the sticks on Friday. Note that the French have been first to score in five of their last six matches. This time I look for them to make it stand up for 90 minutes. Take France (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Switzerland and Spain at 2:45 pm et on Thursday.

The Swiss are in tough right now, missing a number of key cogs at the back-end and things certainly won't get any easier against a Spanish side still hungry for its first victory in Nations League play on Thursday. With Fabian Schar, Nico Elvedi and Manuel Akanji all in line to miss Thursday's match, it's going to be awfully difficult for Switzerland to contend with Spain's offensive attack. While Spain is known for possessing the ball but not always fruitful in attack in recent years, it would be wise to apply all the pressure it can on Switzerland's leaky, undermanned defense. On the flip side, Switzerland was held off the scoreboard entirely in a 4-0 drubbing at the hands of Portugal last time out. I do think we see it respond with a favorable performance here in Geneva on Thursday. Note that it has managed to find the back of the net in three of its last four matches with Spain, despite receiving red cards in each of the last two meetings. Spain has allowed at least a goal in three of its last four matches going back to March, only managing to keep Iceland off the scoreboard in a friendly. I don't have a lot of confidence in underwhelming Spain keeper Unai Simon posting a clean sheet here. Take the over (10*).

Nations League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Belgium and Poland at 2:45 pm et on Wednesday.

We won with the 'over' in Belgium's 4-1 drubbing at the hands of the Netherlands in its Nations League opener last week and I won't hesitate to come right back with the same play here as it hosts Poland in Brussels on Wednesday. We certainly didn't see Belgium's 'A' game against Holland as it fielded a makeshift squad and lost Romelu Lukaku just 27 minutes into the match due to injury. It isn't expected to have standout goalkeeper Thibault Courtois for this contest and I'm confident in predicting another shaky performance from Club Brugge keeper Simon Mignolet in Courtois' absence. Poland didn't get a goal from Robert Lewandowksi but still managed to come away victorious by a 2-1 score against Wales last time out. I'm confident we'll see the all-world striker find the back of the net in this contest. Note that both teams have scored in six of Belgium's last seven matches across all competitions and not surprisingly, six of those seven contests went 'over' 2.5 total goals as well. After such a dismal showing against the Netherlands we can anticipate a positive response from Belgium here, particularly at home, but I'm not convinced it keeps a clean sheet against a confident Polish side that is undefeated in its last three matches. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Germany and England at 2:45 pm et on Tuesday.

Both of these teams are coming off rather uninspiring Nations League openers with England falling 1-0 to Hungary in a stunner in Budapest and Germany settling for a 1-1 draw against an Italy squad that is a shell of its former self. I expect a different story to unfold on Tuesday as these two soccer powerhouses put on a show at Allianz Arena in Munich. Germany was fortunate to give up just a single goal against the Italians last time out. Its defense has appeared leaky at times while goalkeeper Manuel Neuer, while boasting an excellent track record, has struggled not only for his home country, but also for Bayern Munich in recent months. On the flip side, England didn't field its best squad against Hungary but we can anticipate changes to its lineup as it looks to avoid falling deeper into potential Nations League relegation on Tuesday. While I do feel England is rock solid at the back-end, it will be a difficult task trying to keep the German offense at bay for 90 minutes on Tuesday. Note that Germany remains undefeated in its last 10 matches across all competitions and has been first to score in five of its last six contests. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Iceland and Albania at 2:45 pm et on Monday.

Tough turnaround for Iceland here as it returns home from a trip to Israel that ended in a thrilling 2-2 draw. Things won't get any easier here as Iceland hosts Albania, which did not play its opening match which had been previously scheduled against Russia (for obvious reasons). Albania is the very definition of a 'tough out'. The difficulty for Albania here, however, is that it will be missing its two best attackers in Chelsea striker Armando Broja and Rey Manaj due to Covid protocols and injury, respectively. The Albanians are strong at the back-end, however, and will hope to scratch and claw their way to at least a point in this match. That would likely also be a favorable result in the eyes of Iceland. It certainly came away disappointed by the 2-2 draw in Israel if only because it led by a goal in the closing minutes before allowing the equalizer. With a rather punchless Albanian starting XI, Iceland may not find the same difficulty in keeping its opponent under wraps on Monday. Note that Iceland has gone winless across its last seven matches and has conceded first in five of its last six contests so it will certainly be focused on keeping its defensive shape in this one. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on Serbia over Slovenia at 2:45 pm et on Sunday.

I understand bettors' hesitance to back Serbia at this price after it was held off the scoreboard entirely in a 1-0 loss against Norway in its Nations League opener. It probably deserved a better fate in that match, seemingly waking up a little too late to mount a comeback. Here, I look for the Serbians to make amends in a more favorable matchup against Slovenia. The Slovenians fell by a 2-0 score against Sweden. The Swedes had been slumbering so that was certainly a discouraging result for Slovenia, which did have the potential to come away with a point in that match but ultimately squandered it. Here, it travels to Belgrade where Serbia should be in a foul mood and eager to pick up all three points. Note that Slovenia has now gone consecutive matches without finding the back of the net and won't find the going any easier here. Take Serbia (6*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Hungary and England at 12 noon et on Saturday.

While many of the early Nations League affairs have featured goals aplenty (and we've taken full advantage), I don't expect anything of that sort as England challenges Hungary on Saturday. The Three Lions have a number of injury doubts heading into this one. It does come in riding a nine-match undefeated streak, however, a run that has a good chance of remaining intact here. England's main focus at this point is on rounding into form ahead of November's World Cup in Qatar. While England has scored a whopping 20 goals across its last three matches, 10 of those came in a rout of San Marino last November. It obviously faces a much different challenge here. Hungary has seen four of its last six contests stay 'under' 2.5 total goals including a 1-1 draw against England last October. You would have to go back three matches to find the last time the Hungarians scored more than once in a match as it mustered just one goal across two contests against Serbia and Northern Ireland back in March. Noting that Hungary has gone the last four meetings with England without recording a clean sheet, I would anticipate it focusing on keeping its shape defensively in this one and waiting for an opportunity for veteran striker Adam Szalai to counter. I'm just not sure there will be a wealth of those chances here. Take the under (6*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Belgium and the Netherlands at 2:45 pm et on Friday.

With goalkeeper Thibault Courtois officially ruled out due to a groin issue after leading Real Madrid to a Champions League title last Saturday, Belgium could prove vulnerable at the back-end (key defender Jason Denayer is also expected to miss). The Netherlands obviously boasts no shortage of attacking prowess and I'm confident both sides will be eager to push the pace here (these Nations League matches have a tendency to feature more offense than defense with far less on the line compared to World Cup and Euro tournaments for example). Note that Belgium has seen five of its last six matches go 'over' 2.5 goals while the Netherlands is undefeated across its last nine contests and has been 'first to score' in seven of its last eight (the same goes for Belgium). Take the over (8*).

Soccer Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between France and Denmark at 2:45 pm et on Friday.

When these two squads last met in 2018 they played to a 0-0 draw. I expect nothing of the sort on Friday, however, as they tangle in their Nations League opener. Of course, the stakes aren't nearly as high in this tournament as they are in the Euros or World Cup - not even close. So perhaps it's not surprising that yesterday's opening day slate of Nations League contests was fairly high-scoring. I expect more of the same here. France comes in riding a seven-match winning streak across all competitions. You would have to go back 10 matches to find its last defeat. Five of its last six contests have found their way 'over' 2.5 total goals. Likewise, Denmark has seen five of its last seven matches go 'over' 2.5 goals. Denmark is certainly no pushover - it sits 11th in the FIFA rankings and enters this contest having scored first in eight of its last 10 trips to the pitch. With key defender Simon Kjaer expected to miss this contest, the Danes may be a little think at the back and France is certainly capable of exposing any sort of weakness in that area of the field with Mbappe and Benzema capable of striking at any given moment. France can be vulnerable at the back-end as well, noting that just going back to last September you'll find the likes of Ivory Coast and Bosnia & Herzegovina have managed to find the back of the net against Les Bleus. We'll count on some offensive fireworks here. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Serbia and Norway at 2:45 pm et on Thursday.

Norway is coming off the tremendous disappointment of missing out on the World Cup, failing to qualify for November's tournament in Qatar. Not only did it not qualify but it stunningly failed to find the back of the net even once in its final two qualification matches. I look for the Norwegians to make amends on Thursday as they open Nations League play against Serbia. Of course, Serbia won't be easy to tame here at home, where it hasn't lost a single match since 2020. The Serbians should benefit from facing a Norwegian back-line that will be missing two key cogs in Omar Elabdellaoui and Kristoffer Ajer. While striker Duhan Vlahovic will not be on the pitch for Serbia it does have depth up front with Aleksandar Mitrovic and Luka Jovic more than capable of filling the void. While this match may feature some dry periods, both sides do possess that quick-strike ability that we're looking for when playing an 'over'. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Slovenia and Sweden at 2:45 pm et on Thursday.

On paper, Sweden should have its way with Slovenia. After all, the Swedes check in ranked 19th in the world by FIFA while Slovenia is 65th. However, Sweden has managed to score just one goal in its last four matches across all competitions. That lone goal came in extra time against the Czechs in World Cup qualifying. Each of Sweden's last five matches have totalled two goals or less. With Slovenia being the expected bottom-feeder in this Nations League group we can anticipate it simply looking to take something, anything from this match - perhaps one where the potential is there to at least gain a point. Interestingly, Slovenia is actually undefeated across its last four contests. A tentative start to the Nations League can be expected here and I envision both sides struggling to find more than a single goal. Take the under (6*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Liverpool and Real Madrid at 3 pm et on Saturday.

Last year's Champions League Final was a bit of a snoozer unless you're a real student of the game. Chelsea won that match by a 1-0 score over Manchester City. Oddly enough, I'm actually expecting another relatively low-scoring affair here but with that being said, I simply feel this total has been set too low. 'Low-scoring' is a relative term considering how these two squads have performed, particularly in Champions League play. Gone are the days of Real Madrid putting on routine defensive clinics in big matches such as this. Los Blancos have been pushing hard, often out of necessity after digging deep holes for themselves. You'd be hard-pressed to find a striker in better form than Karim Benzema right now. He possesses the ability to tilt the scales in Los Blancos' favor at any given moment. Of course, Liverpool plays an extremely aggressive, attacking brand of football. The Reds will look to pressure Real Madrid's oft-leaky defense early and often on Saturday. Regardless which team strikes first, an equalizer should never be far off. If there's an area to be exploited on Liverpool's side in might just be in goal where keeper Alisson is beatable in my opinion. Benzema and Vinicius Jr. have been clinical and should pose a major threat to the Reds last line of defense here. Take the over (8*).

Champions League Game of the Year. My selection is on Real Madrid +0.5 goals over Liverpool at 3 pm et on Saturday.

There's something special about this Real Madrid squad. It hasn't faced an easy road to reach this Champions League Final - not by any stretch of the imagination. Los Blancos have had to outlast the likes of Paris Saint-Germain, Chelsea and Manchester City, erasing second half deficits in a number of matches thanks in large part to the heroics of one of the world's best players in Karim Benzema. Now comes arguably the toughest test of all as Liverpool has gone undefeated across its last 18 matches. I'm confident Real Madrid will be up for the challenge. I understand the overwhelming support for Liverpool in this match. After all, Real Madrid could certainly be considered 'lucky' to be here given the nature of its recent Champions League victories. Liverpool on the other hand hasn't left much doubt. There's also the matter of this match being played in France, rather than Madrid where Los Blancos delivered their unthinkable comeback victories. Note that while Los Blancos last two matches resulted in rather uninspiring draws against Cadiz and Real Betis, those lackluster performances weren't unexpected as they had already wrapped up the La Liga crown and were already preparing for this showdown with Liverpool. There's really nothing negative I can say about the Reds here. They field a tremendous level of talent across the board. If there is perhaps one advantage Real Madrid might have it is in the last line of defense as keeper Thibault Courtois has been outstanding and can tilt the scales in a match such as this. Liverpool keeper Alisson is elite in his own right but doesn't bring the same form as Courtois. While most are anticipating plenty of offensive fireworks in this one, I'm counting on a tight, low-scoring affair and that should favor underdog Real Madrid. We'll grab the half-goal as insurance as we should be in for another 'instant classic'. Take Real Madrid +0.5 goals (10*).

Soccer Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Rayo Vallecano and Levante at 3 pm et on Friday.

With their places already assured ahead of Friday's La Liga finale, I'm not anticipating much in the way of offensive fireworks in this one. Levante would be well-advised to play cautiously here, noting that it has failed to record a clean sheet in any of its last seven matches, giving up the first goal in six of those contests. The good news is, Rayo Vallecano isn't all that imposing offensively and enters this match having gone winless across its last four contests. Note also that Vallecano has seen six of its last eight contests stay 'under' 2.5 goals. It has enjoyed a successful campaign here at home this season, where it actually sits 10th in the La Liga table when only considering home matches. There, we've seen it yield just 18 goals in 18 matches - an impressive accomplishment in its own right. Take the under (10*).

Serie A Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Sampdoria and Fiorentina at 12:30 pm et on Monday.

We cashed an 'under' play in a match involving Fiorentina last week and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. I like the setup in this one as Fiorentina sits in seventh place in the Serie A table, currently in line to qualify for Conference League play, but tied point-wise with eighth-place Atlanta. This is Fiorentina's match in hand. It will certainly want to come away with at least a point here but Sampdoria has proven to be a 'tough out' at home, with just a -6 goal differential. Fiorentina has been rather punchless away from home, sitting just 12th in the table when factoring in only those 'away' matches, where it owns a -7 goal differential. Note that Sampdoria is just four points clear of relegation in the Serie A table and could certainly use at least a point from this contest. It has seen six of its last seven matches stay 'under' 2.5 goals. Fiorentina will need to be careful here noting that it has conceded the first goal in four of its last five matches. This has generally been a high-scoring series with both sides finding the back of the net in each of the last 10 meetings. I believe that is only serving to provide us value with the 'under' here with that I consider to be distinctly different circumstances than we've seen in recent clashes. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Fiorentina and Roma at 2:45 pm et on Monday.

With very little separating these two teams in the Seria A table and both on either side of the coveted top-seven places, I'm anticipating a cagey affair on Monday in Florence. Note that Fiorentina enters this match having lost four consecutive matches so it is in desperate need of taking something, anything away from this clash on Monday. Roma on the other hand will be looking to keep its three-match undefeated streak intact. I do feel that Fiorentina is a much better defensive squad that it has shown over its last four contests, noting that it has allowed a grand total of 20 goals in 17 home matches this season. Having conceded the first goal in four of its last five matches, I fully expect Fiorentina to take a fairly cautious approach for much of this one, especially when you consider it has dropped five straight meetings with Roma. This has been a relatively high-scoring series with six of the last seven meetings going 'over' 2.5 total goals but I think we have a different set of circumstances here, noting as I did earlier that there's much at stake here with Roma sitting in a tie for 6th/7th in the Serie A table and Fiorentina just three points back in eighth. Fiorentina actually ranks fourth in Serie A when only factoring in 'home' matches with an impressive +14 goal differential. Take the under (6*).

La Liga Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Levante and Real Sociedad at 3 pm et on Friday.

I'm expecting a rather cagey affair between these two La Liga sides on Friday in Valencia. Real Sociedad comes in having failed to record a victory in its last three matches. It still sits sixth in the La Liga table, with a four-point cushion over seventh-place Villarreal and a seven-point advantage on Athletic, which sits in eighth. There's no question Sociedad would like to claim all three points in this match but I don't believe it will come easy. Levante sits last in the La Liga table. It will undoubtedly take on a defensive form here noting that it has gone four matches without recording a clean sheet and eight contests without doing so in this particular series. The last two matches between these two squads have gone 1-0 to Sociedad. With Levante giving up the first goal in five of the last six meetings, I would anticipate it throwing everything it has at Sociedad early in this one in an effort to stem the tide. Note that as bad as Levante has been this season, it actually has a goal differential of just -5 at home, where it has conceded just over 1.6 goals per contest. Noting that Sociedad has seen less than 2.5 goals in six of its last seven matches, I believe both sides will be comfortable in a low-scoring affair here. Take the under (10*).

Bundesliga Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Vfl Bochum and Arminia Bielefeld at 2:30 pm et on Friday.

Bielefeld could desperately use the three points from this 'away' match on Friday as it currently sits six points back of 15th-place Hertha Berlin - a spot that would mean avoiding relegation. It has to feel it at least has a puncher's chance in this one, noting that Bochum is a middling Bundesliga side that has failed to deliver a victory in the last five meetings in this series. While eight of the last 10 matches between these two squads have stayed 'under' 2.5 total goals, I believe that's only serving to provide us with some value on the 'over' in this one. Keep in mind, Bochum has gone three matches without recording a clean sheet. Bielefeld has had a miserable time keeping the ball out of its own net, allowing the first goal in nine consecutive matches while going winless over that stretch. Bielefeld has managed to find a goal in three of its last five matches - in the only two contests where it didn't over that stretch, it allowed four. Take the over (10*).

Serie A Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Salernitana and Venezia at 12 noon et on Thursday.

In principle, I'm not convinced we should see totals set south of 3.0 goals in matches involving Venezia. It continues to bring up the rear in the Seria A table and has now conceded at least a goal in an incredible 23 consecutive matches. It has also gone winless in its last 10 Serie A tilts, carrying a streak of nine straight outright defeats. You have to think that this could potentially be the spot to break that skid, however, noting that Salernitana sits just four points ahead in the Serie A table, with an even worse goal margin of -42. It does check in undefeated across its last four contests but has also seen both teams find the back of the net in four of its last five overall. It's not as if this hasn't been a competitive series as each of the last three matches have been decided by a single goal with both teams scoring in all three of those contests. When they last met in October 2021, Venezia fell by a 2-1 score, thanks in large part to playing shorthanded following a red card in the 67th minute. With both sides extremely vulnerable at the back-end and with little reason to hold anything back up front, I'm confident we'll see some offensive fireworks here. Take the over (10*).

Champions League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Real Madrid and Manchester City at 3 pm et on Wednesday.

I believe we're in for a real treat in the second leg of this epic Champions League semi-final showdown between Real Madrid and Manchester City on Wednesday. Keep in mind, the first leg met expectations and then some as Man City prevailed by a 4-3 score on home soil. Here, I expect City and its oft-vulnerable back-end to have an extremely difficult time containing a Real Madrid offense that has absolutely rounded into form in recent months. Both of these teams are no strangers to high-scoring affairs. They both enter this match having seen each of their last five contests total at least three goals. I like the fact that Real Madrid needs to erase a one-goal deficit here at home while Man City will also be striving for goals having allowed a whopping three 'away' goals in the first leg. While Man City has won four consecutive meetings between these European powerhouses, you would have to go back six matches to find the last time it recorded a clean sheet against Real Madrid. For its part, Real Madrid hasn't held Man City off the scoresheet in any of the last four meetings between the two and in current form isn't the impenetrable defensive squad it once was. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Hoffenheim and Freiburg at 12:30 pm et on Saturday.

I'm expecting some offensive fireworks in this match and so are the oddsmakers with the total approaching three at most books. While I would still consider playing the 'over' at '3', I prefer to pay the extra juice to get it at 2.5 or at worst 2 3/4 here to ensure a 2-1 result cashes our ticket. Hoffenheim has incredibly gone 18 matches in this particular series without posting a clean sheet. With Freiburg currently scoring at will, the hosts will be hard-pressed to do so here as well. We've seen six of the last eight matches between these two squads go 'over' 2.5 goals. Freiburg has been somewhat forgiving defensively, noting that both teams have scored in four of its last five contests with all five of those matches going 'over' 2.5 goals. I'm confident we'll see Hoffenheim force the issue here as it sits six points clear of ninth-place Frankfurt and six points back of today's opponent, Freiburg, which sits three places ahead of it in the Bundesliga table - currently occupying one of the coveted top six spots. Of course, should Hoffenheim come out aggressively, that should only open the door for Freiburg to take advantage in transition. Take the over (6*).

Soccer Game of the Week. My selection is on Bologna +1.5 goals over Inter Milan at 2:15 pm et on Wednesday.

Inter Milan enters Wednesday's match in Bologna just two points back of AC Milan, which sits tops in the Serie A table. There's undoubtedly some pressure on Inter to collect all three points in this match and leapfrog Milan. It won't be easy, however. Bologna has gone undefeated across its last four matches and should be well aware of the path to success in this particular contest, having seen seven of its last eight matches stay 'under' 2.5 goals. Bologna also knows that it can find success against Inter. The most recent meeting came last September, with Inter winning by a lopsided 6-1 score. Prior to that, however, four of the last five matches between these two squads were decided by a single goal. Note that despite being decided underdogs, Bologna has failed to find the back of the net just once in the last five meetings. I'm anticipating a competitive affair on Wednesday. Take Bologna +1.5 goals (10*).

Soccer Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Sassuolo and Juventus at 2:45 pm et on Monday.

I can't help but feel that both sides would be satisfied with a low-scoring draw in this Monday Serie A matchup. Juventus sits fairly comfortable inside the top four in the Serie A table, five points ahead of fifth-place Roma with this being its match-in-hand. Sassuolo is in no man's land in some sense, sitting 10th in the table, a whopping 21 points north of relegation but 10 points outside the coveted top six spots. We're dealing with a relatively high posted total here due largely to the fact that each of the last 10 meetings in this series has gone 'over' 2.5 goals. With that being said, Juventus has seen four of its last five matches overall stay 'under' 2.5 goals. Sassuolo will likely take on a rather defensive shape here as it looks to break a streak of seven consecutive matches allowing at least one goal. However, I also expect Juventus to take a rather cautious approach as it has yielded at least a goal in six consecutive matches against Sassuolo and will be looking to keep its three match undefeated streak intact. While a 'push' is always a fairly probable outcome when dealing with 'on the nose' totals such as this one (the standard total is set at 3.0 at the time of writing), I believe there's a good chance we see a 1-0, 1-1 or 2-0 outcome here. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'draw' between Wolfsburg and Mainz at 2:30 pm et on Friday.

I think a 'draw' serves both of these squads well on Friday with Wolfsburg coming off an ugly 6-1 loss to Borussia Dortmund and Mainz having not delivered an 'away' victory in Bundesliga play since last December. Wolfsburg could certainly use the point here as it sits just six points ahead of Stuttgart, which currently resides in the first of three relegation spots. Meanwhile, Mainz still has faint hope of clawing its way into one of the coveted top-six positions, currently sitting eight points back of Union Berlin. Both of these squads are missing some key pieces on the back line and with that in mind, I don't think an equalizer will ever be far away should either side grab a lead in this match. The line speaks to the high probability of a 'draw' here and we'll go precisely that way on Friday. Take the draw (8*).

Bundesliga Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Wolfsburg and Mainz at 2:30 pm et on Friday.

Both of these squads are dealing with a number of key injuries and absences on the back line with multiple defenders slated to miss another match on Friday. While Mainz is coming off a less-than-thrilling 0-0 draw, I believe we're set up for a relatively high-scoring affair on Friday. Note that Wolfsburg has seen 'over' 2.5 goals in four of its last five contests, conceding the first goal in four of those five matches as well. While Mainz has had little success on 'away' soil this Bundesliga campaign (it checks in 17th in the table when only factoring in 'away' matches) it should feel confident here as it has notched three goals in each of its last two dates with Wolfsburg, most recently securing a 3-0 victory last December. Wolfsburg is fresh off a 6-1 drubbing at the hands of Borussia Dortmund. It has been wildly inconsistent in recent weeks but you have to figure we'll see it come out aggressively here after such a poor showing last time out. Noting that Mainz has gone winless in its last four matches, Wolfsburg will be keen to put it on its back foot early in this one. Note that Mainz has allowed just shy of two goals per contest away from home in Bundesliga action this season. On the flip side, while it is coming off a shotless performance in that nil-nil draw against Stuttgart, it hasn't been held off the scoresheet entirely in an 'away' Bundesliga match since December. Take the over (10*).

Serie A Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Napoli and Roma at 1 pm et on Monday.

Napoli enters this match undefeated in the last four matches in this series having not allowed a single goal in the last three. So it's understandable that we're dealing with a reasonably low total in Monday's contest. However, both teams have seen plenty of goals in their recent matches. Napoli has seen six of its last seven contests go 'over' 2.5 goals. The same can be said for Roma in four of its last five matches. Given Napoli has seen both teams score in nine of its last 10 matches, I'm confident Roma can find at least a goal here. Note also that Roma has managed to find the back of the net first in four of its last five contests overall. As much as neither side will want to give an inch as they both sit in the coveted top-six in Serie A play, I'm anticipating some fireworks on Monday. Take the over (10*).

Ligue 1 Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Stade Rennes and AS Monaco at 3 pm et on Friday.

I'm not sure any Ligue 1 team has played as entertaining of a brand of football as Stade Rennes lately, perhaps not even mighty PSG. It enters Friday's showdown with Monaco having gone undefeated over its last five matches but also not recording a single clean sheet over its last six contests. We've seen goals and scoring opportunities aplenty over that stretch and I'm anticipating more of the same on Friday. Monaco comes in playing some of its best football, having reeled off three straight wins, scoring at least two goals in each contest. It sits just a point back of Nice for one of the coveted top-five spots in the Ligue 1 table. Here, we'll note that each of the last five matches between these two squads has totalled 'over' 2.5 goals. We've seen both teams score in each of the last 10 meetings in the series. You would have to go all the way back to March 6th, when it faced bottom-half Ligue 1 squad Angers, to find the last time Stade Rennes didn't concede a goal - seven matches back. Just three matches back Monaco held PSG off the scoresheet in a 3-0 victory, however, it has yielded goals against both Metz and Troyes over its last two contests. I simply like the form that both sides bring to the pitch on Friday and fully expect a 2-1 or better result. Take the over (10*).

Serie A Game of the Month. My selection is on Spezia +1.5 goals over Inter Milan at 1 pm et on Friday.

Inter Milan rolls into Friday's 'away' match against Spezia off consecutive clean sheet victories. In fact, Inter is undefeated in its last eight matches overall. With that being said, I see this as a tricky contest, noting that both teams have been involved in their share of low-scoring affairs lately. Inter has seen each of its last five contests stay 'under' 2.5 goals while the same can be said for Spezia in five of its last six matches. With this match being played at Stadio Alberto Picco in La Spezia we'll note that the home side has recorded a goal differential of just -1 goal in the role of host this season. Contrast that with its -21 goal differential in enemy territory. Inter Milan, meanwhile, is tops in the Serie A table when factoring in only 'home' affairs but drops to fifth when only considering 'away' matches. This has been a relatively tight series lately with Inter winning two of the last three matches between the two but with just a +3 goal differential over that stretch. Take Spezia +1.5 goals (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Rayo Vallecano and Valencia at 3 pm et on Monday.

Both of these squads continue to sit in the middle-third of the La Liga table although home side Rayo Vallecano is by no means out of the woods, sitting just five points ahead of Cadiz, which sits in the first relegation spot. It has gone winless over its last 10 matches and will likely need to turn this into a rather cagey affair to come away with anything positive, noting that Valencia has been incredibly stingy, not allowing a single goal over its last three contests. In fact, both sides enter this match having seen five of their last six contests stay 'under' 2.5 total goals. While Rayo Vallecano has gone 10 matches without posting a clean sheet, this is a matchup it can handle, noting that Valencia has found only 20 goals in 15 'away' matches in La Liga play this season. You would have to go back three meetings in this series to find the last time these two teams combined to score more than two goals. We're just four matches removed from the last 0-0 draw in the series. Take the under (6*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund at 2:30 pm et on Friday.

We've seen 15 consecutive matches between these two teams go 'over' 2.5 total goals and that would be the way I suggest playing this clash on Friday as well (even with the juice). Stuttgart has gone undefeated in its last four matches to improve its chances of avoiding relegation but it certainly isn't out of the woods yet. Concerning is the fact that it has yielded at least a goal in 11 consecutive matches and it figures to be tested here against a powerful Dortmund attack. Note that both teams have found the back of the net in each of Stuttgart's last nine matches overall and it has failed to hold Dortmund off the scoresheet in 15 straight meetings between the two squads. Dortmund will undoubtedly be looking to put Stuttgart on its back foot early in this one, noting that the former enters this match off a disappointing 4-1 loss to RB Leipzig last weekend. Dortmund has come away victorious in its last two meetings with Stuttgart but has certainly had its hands full in this series, allowing nine goals in the last four matchups in the series. Take the over (6*).

My selection is on the 'over' between RB Leipzig and Atalanta at 12:45 pm et on Thursday.

While Atalanta doesn't necessarily bring the best offensive form into the first leg of this Europa League clash, I believe RB Leipzig is just vulnerable enough at the back and aggressive enough moving forward to allow the Italian side to find at least one goal in this contest - and that should be enough to carry this one 'over' the relatively low posted total. Leipzig of course enters this match undefeated in its last 10 contests across all competitions. I expect the German side to find continued success against an Atalanta side that is still missing its captain and anchor at the back in Rafael Toloi due to a groin injury. Leipzig forward Christopher Nkunku has been showing off his all-world scoring touch with consistency and will prove to be a handful once again on Thursday. If there is a weakness on this Leipzig side I do feel its at the back, particularly in goal where Peter Gulacsi has appeared to be fighting the ball at times. Were it not for Atalanta's recent offensive struggles we would be working with a higher total here. However, the Italian side has found much of its success away from home soil and particularly in Europa League action and I'm confident it can do enough to help this total along on Thursday. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on FC Augsburg +0.5 goals over Mainz at 12:30 pm et on Wednesday.

While Mainz sits four places and nine points ahead of Augsburg in the Bundesliga table, I don't believe there's all that much separating these two clubs. Much of Mainz' success has been built on its play at home - in fact, factoring in only home matches it would sit in third place in the Bundesliga. However, considering only away matches, Mainz would rank 16th, just two places above the league basement. Note that Mainz has managed only 12 goals in 13 away matches this season, while conceding 23. Contrast that with Augsburg's home tally of 20 goals for and 19 against in the same number of contests. This particular series hasn't been all that favorable for Mainz either as it has conceded at least a goal against Augsburg in 10 consecutive meetings. Augsburg enters this match having lost just once in its last four matches, that coming by a 3-2 score away against Stuttgart. Mainz, meanwhile, will be playing its second away match in the last three days after a hard-fought draw against Monchengladbach on Sunday. Take Augsburg +0.5 goals (8*).

My selection is on Atletico Madrid +1.5 goals over Manchester City at 3 pm et on Tuesday.

Most are expecting Manchester City to cruise in the home leg of its clash with Atletico Madrid on Tuesday. I'm not so easily convinced. Atletico Madrid enters this match playing its best football, having won six consecutive matches (undefeated in its last eight). In fact, it has scored first in each of its last eight contests. It's not as if goals have been all that plentiful in Manchester City matches lately with five of its last seven contests staying 'under' 2.5 total goals. That sort of low-scoring affair would of course be favorable to us with an insurance goal in our back pocket. While Atletico Madrid will certainly have its hands full with a potent Man City attack, it has held up well in 'away' matches in Champions League play, allowing just four goals in as many contests. Take Atletico Madrid +1.5 goals (8*).