Sports Picks & Predictions
NFLX Archive | |||||||
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
08-25-23 | Lions +5 v. Panthers | Top | 26-17 | Win | 100 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
NFC Game of the Week. My selection is on Detroit plus the points over Carolina at 8 pm et on Friday. The Lions were manhandled 25-7 at home against the Jaguars last week, spoiling the gains from the previous week when they rallied for a victory over the Giants. I look for Dan Campbell's squad to bounce back in Friday's preseason finale as they head to Carolina to take on the Panthers. Carolina is expected to give its starters a run in this game and that includes rookie quarterback Bryce Young. His results have been mixed in the early going. Carolina has yet to secure a win this preseason after getting shut out by the Jets in Week 1 and rallying but falling short in a 21-19 loss to the Giants last week. There's just nothing in this matchup that leads me to believe the Panthers are deserving of laying more than a field goal. While we've seen positive flashes from Carolina's second and third-string quarterbacks in Matt Corral and Jake Luton, we've also seen plenty of mistakes. After such a poor showing last week, I expect the Lions defense to take a step forward here, certainly as they look to rise to the occasion against the highly-touted rookie QB Young in the early going. Take Detroit (10*). |
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08-21-23 | Ravens -1 v. Commanders | 28-29 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Baltimore minus the points over Washington at 8 pm et on Monday. The Commanders are coming off a 17-15 win over the Browns last week and that's worth noting as they haven't won consecutive preseason contests since way back in 2017. The Ravens run of preseason success over the last eight years has been well-documented. I expect their run to last at least one more game, despite what the line movement seems to be indicating here. That line movement has a lot to do with an injury to Ravens backup QB Tyler Huntley. He tweaked his hamstring in last week's game and isn't expected to play on Monday. That still leaves a couple of experienced preseason quarterbacks in Josh Johnson and Anthony Brown to run the Ravens offense. The Commanders named Sam Howell their Week 1 starter at QB last week and while he is likely to play in this game, I'm not sure we'll see a lot of him, noting that the starters got plenty of run during joint practices between these two teams over the course of the week. Backup Jacoby Brissett is locked-in to the QB2 spot while Jake Fromm will likely get mop-up duty once again on Monday. There's a lot to like when it comes to the Ravens preseason approach. Their lone preseason winning streak is no fluke and you can be sure this year's edition doesn't want to be the one to spoil the exceptional run. Take Baltimore (8*). |
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08-20-23 | Saints -3.5 v. Chargers | Top | 22-17 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
My selection is on New Orleans minus the points over Los Angeles at 7:05 pm et on Sunday. While this will technically be the Chargers first home game of the preseason, they did play here last week as they delivered a 34-17 win over the Rams. That win had more to do with the Rams lacking depth than anything else (they were also trounced by the Raiders last night). New Orleans is coming off a wild 26-24 victory over Kansas City. I like the Saints quarterback rotation with Jameis Winston and rookie Jake Haener once again expected to handle the bulk of the snaps on Sunday. Haener had a shaky first couple of possessions but did end up settling in and orchestrating a 76-yard touchdown drive later on. The Chargers starters are unlikely see much (if any) playing time on Sunday after these two teams took part in joint practices this week. They didn't show much interest in turning rookie QB Max Duggan loose in the second half last Sunday as he attempted only three passes (that was largely game-script related but still worth noting). I don't anticipate Brandon Staley opening up the Chargers playbook too wide in this contest either as his number one goal this preseason seems to be figuring out who will win the backup running back job. Take New Orleans (8*). |
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08-19-23 | Patriots +3 v. Packers | Top | 21-17 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
NFLX Non-Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on New England plus the points over Green Bay at 8 pm et on Saturday. While Patriots head coach Bill Bellichick isn't exactly known for his preseason success I do think last week's ugly showing at home against the Texans mattered. Here, the Pats will head back to the field following a couple of days of joint practices with the Packers and by all accounts New England took it to Green Bay in those sessions - particularly on offense. It's worth noting that the Pats check in off a loss last week as they haven't dropped consecutive preseason games (in the same year) since way back in 2017. The Packers are 'fat and happy' off a 36-19 dismantling of the Bengals, on the road no less, last week. That result was more about the Bengals sloppy play than it was the Packers sharpness. Here, we're once again likely to see plenty of Penn State alum Sean Clifford under center for the Packers. The Patriots defense was actually flying around against the Texans last week but didn't end up with much to show for it. I expect them to feast on the Packers depth-shy offense here. Take New England (10*). |
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08-17-23 | Browns v. Eagles -3.5 | 18-18 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Cleveland at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. The Eagles fell by a 20-19 score, blowing a second half lead last week in Baltimore. I look for them to bounce back here as they host the Browns following a couple days of joint practices. Things got a little testy during those practices, with some Eagles defenders apparently taking 'cheap shots' at Browns QB Deshaun Watson. That was 'much ado about nothing' according to most reports. None of the starters are expected to take the field for the Browns on Thursday, nor do I expect to see many of the Eagles front-line players in prominent roles. I did feel that Philadelphia's loss against the Ravens was a little misleading. The Eagles moved the football with ease in the early stages of that contest - in fact, each of their five first half drives ended up in Ravens territory with three resulted in scores. QB Tanner McKee completed only 10-of-20 pass attempts but flashed at times and likely earned additional playing time this week. While the Eagles didn't play the majority of their regular starters in that game, they did give plenty of veterans a run and I would expect more of the same here. For the Browns, rookie QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson has all but earned a roster spot after consecutive impressive performances to open the preseason. He's expected to start and play the entire first half on Thursday. I do think this will be the toughest test he has faced so far as the Eagles defense was humming in last week's contest in Baltimore (they held Baltimore to fewer than 10 yards on three of five first half drives and their backups produced a pick-six in the second half). Apart from DTR, Browns backups at the skill positions on offense haven't shown a ton of upside through two preseason contests. Take Philadelphia (8*). |
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08-11-23 | Falcons -2 v. Dolphins | 19-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta minus the points over Miami at 7 pm et on Friday. All indications are that the Dolphins offense and more specifically their offensive line has struggled mightily in camp and during joint practices with the Falcons this week. Now Miami is also dealing with a cluster of injuries at the skill positions on offense. Even though guys like Jaylen Waddle and Jeff Wilson Jr. weren't going to see much playing time, if any at all, in this game anyway, it's likely that this is a contest where the Fins want to effectively shorten proceedings and come out of it as healthy as possible. The needle is pointed up for the Falcons as they look to fine-tune a run-heavy offensive attack after making positive strides last year. Their preseason quarterback rotation will include Desmond Ridder, Taylor Heinicke and Logan Woodside with the latter having gotten a year under his belt in this system in 2022. For Miami we're likely to see plenty of Skylar Thompson and Mike White under center. With a swinging-door offensive line I'm anticipating a rather vanilla offensive gameplan from it in Friday's opener. Take Atlanta (8*). |
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08-29-21 | Browns v. Falcons +6 | 19-10 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over Cleveland at 8 pm et on Sunday. The Falcons have looked awful in their first two preseason games. They'll have a shot at redeeming themselves on Sunday night as they host the 2-0 Browns in front of a national audience. Note that Cleveland head coach Kevin Stefanski has surprisingly announced that QB Baker Mayfield and a 'select group' of starters will play in this game - an about face after the majority of his starters hadn't played a single snap in the first two preseason games. I'm still not expecting much more than a cameo appearance from Browns starters here. Falcons first-year head coach Arthur Smith has also suggested that some of his starters will play on Sunday night. Again, don't expect much more than a cameo appearance. Atlanta essentially punted last week's game in Miami, attempting just 15 passes in a 37-17 loss. Smith will certainly want his team to go into the season feeling good about themselves. Note that while the Browns are 2-0 they've faced the Jaguars and Giants - two teams that enter Week 3 sporting a combined 0-4 record. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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08-28-21 | Chargers v. Seahawks -5 | 0-27 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle minus the points over Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Saturday. I said it last week and I'll say it again here, the Chargers don't care about the preseason. Or should I say they don't care about their preseason win-loss record anyway. Head coach Brandon Staley has made a point to not play his starters throughout the preseason schedule and his number one goal will simply be keeping everyone healthy and ready to go for the start of the regular season here tonight. The Seahawks don't really care about the preseason either - not this year anyway. With that being said, they are coming off a 30-3 drubbing at the hands of the Broncos here at home last week so I do think they'll at the very least want to put their best foot forward and turn in a cleaner performance here as they wrap things up against the Chargers. Seattle backup quarterbacks Sean Mannion and Alex McGough have shown the ability to move the football. They struggled against an aggressive (by preseason standards) Denver pass rush last week but should fare better against the Chargers less aggressive front here tonight. Take Seattle (8*). |
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08-22-21 | 49ers -5 v. Chargers | 15-10 | Push | 0 | 11 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco minus the points over Los Angeles at 7:30 pm et on Sunday. The Niners did a lot of good things but ultimately fell by a 19-16 score against Kansas City in their preseason opener. Meanwhile, the Chargers defeated the Rams despite scoring just 13 points last week. Los Angeles head coach Brandon Staley, along with the Chargers players, have made it clear that they don't care about the preseason (wins and losses anyway). Their starters will once again be on the sidelines for this one. Meanwhile, the 49ers should again give Jimmy Garropolo and Trey Lance extended looks in this one. All reports pointed to the fact that the Niners two quarterbacks looked sharp in 7-on-7 drills during joint practices with the Chargers this week and I expect to see some carry-over here. Take San Francisco (10*). |
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08-21-21 | Titans v. Bucs -1 | 34-3 | Loss | -108 | 59 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay minus the points over Tennessee at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. The Bucs laid an egg in their preseason opener. After jumping ahead with a first quarter touchdown, their offense failed to reach the end zone again in a 19-14 loss against the Bengals, at home no less, last Saturday. Here, I look for a strong bounce-back performance from Bruce Arians' squad. While preseason results mean very little in the grand scheme of things (at least from a win-loss perspective), after a performance where they allowed four sacks and threw two interceptions, I think Arians will want to see a much cleaner performance from his team this week. The Titans on the other hand, rolled to a blowout win in Atlanta last Friday night. Mike Vrabel has still only managed a 3-6 preseason record in 2+ years guiding Tennessee. It's not as if the Titans backup QB duo of Logan Woodside and Matt Barkley was all that impressive in last week's win, it was more of a case of Atlanta not offering much resistance whatsoever. I expect a different story to unfold here. We go from the Bucs laying nearly a touchdown against the Bengals last week to now being virtually a pk'em against the Titans. I simply feel it's an overreaction to last week's 'meaningless' Week 1 preseason results. Take Tampa Bay (9*). |
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08-20-21 | Chiefs -2 v. Cardinals | Top | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 37 h 8 m | Show |
NFLX TV Game of the Year. My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over Arizona at 8 pm et on Friday. I'll lay the short number with the Chiefs as they travel to Arizona to face the Cardinals in front of a national ESPN audience on Friday. Both of these teams were victorious by identical 19-16 scores last week as the Chiefs defeated the Niners in San Francisco and the Cardinals took down the Cowboys here at home. It's worth noting that Arizona's victory came thanks to a pair of Matt Prater field goals inside the game's final two minutes (foiling our play on the Cowboys plus the points). Kyler Murray is expected to see his first action of the preseason for the Cardinals. He has already stated that he 'hates the preseason' and puts virtually no stock in what happens on the field. With WRs DeAndre Hopkins and A.J. Green and RB James Conner on and off the field due to various ailments, he may not have his full compliment of weapons during what should be a brief appearance in the first half on Friday. Also note that depth WR Andy Isabella will miss this game due to Covid protocols. Behind Murray in the QB rotation is the capable but underwhelming duo of Colt McCoy and Chris Streveler. Note that the Cards went 1-3 in the preseason in their first year under head coach Kliff Kingsbury back in 2019. So they're in uncharted territory in a sense as they look for their second consecutive preseason win here. Chiefs head coach Andy Reid has said that he will play his starters for most, if not all of the first half on Friday. While it remains to be seen whether that means we'll see a full half from QB Pat Mahomes (probably not), I still think we're going to see Kansas City put forth a fairly serious effort (by preseason standards) as they look to go 2-0 on the road. The Chiefs offense will be facing a Cardinals defense that won't have the services of J.J. Watt or Chandler Jones. Kansas City doesn't have a top-flight QB rotation by any means but I do like the veteran presence of Chad Henne and Shane Buechele did show he can move the ball down the field with his arm and his legs in last week's victory (8-of-11 passing and three runs for 13 yards). I simply feel we'll see a little better execution from the Chiefs for four quarters than we will from the Cardinals as Kansas City is a road favorite for a reason. Take Kansas City (10*). |
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08-19-21 | Patriots v. Eagles +1.5 | 35-0 | Loss | -109 | 33 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over New England at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. I'll make the case that the wrong team is being favored in this NFLX Week 2 kickoff matchup between the Patriots and Eagles. Yes, New England is 1-0 while Philadelphia checks in 0-1. You can be sure the Eagles are putting some emphasis on winning this game, which is their final home preseason game before wrapping up their exhibition schedule with a trip to New York to face the Jets next Friday. They actually got off to a terrific start in their opener against the Steelers last week jumping ahead 13-0 before the Steelers left them in the dust in the second half. That was a Pittsburgh squad that had a leg up having already played a preseason game. Here, the Eagles will have a more level playing field against New England with both teams having played just once. Mac Jones was the story for the Patriots last week as he impressed in a 22-13 win over the Washington Football Team. He could very well impress again this week but he's going to once again have to concede some playing time to projected starter Cam Newton, who hasn't looked particularly sharp this summer. RB Rhamondre Stevenson was also a big story for the Pats last week, putting the game away with a late 91-yard touchdown run. Keep in mind, outside of that big run he was held to just 4.0 yards per rush. As I mentioned, the Eagles did do a lot of good things in head coach Nick Sirianni's debut last week. We can expect QB Jalen Hurts to see more extensive playing time on Thursday night as Sirianni looks to give him some confidence running the offense after he made only a cameo appearance last week. Of course, Philadelphia boasts one of the stronger preseason quarterback rotations you'll find with Hurts followed by two experienced QB's in Joe Flacco and Nick Mullens. I like their depth at all of the skill positions on offense with impressive rookies WR Quez Watkins and RB Kenneth Gainwell likely to see plenty of action on Thursday as well. It's worth noting that while New England did manage to win by nine points last week, Washington did find some success passing the football, racking up 245 yards through the air - nearly doubling the Patriots production in that category. Washington also held a 22-16 first down edge. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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08-14-21 | Dolphins v. Bears -3.5 | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 126 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago minus the points over Miami at 1 pm et on Saturday. The Bears are one of the biggest favorites on the NFL preseason Week 1 board and they're favored for a reason in my opinion. Chicago is in desperate need of a spark right out of the gate following another disappointing campaign. The Bears boast arguably the best QB rotation in the preseason with veterans Andy Dalton and Nick Foles book-ending potential standout rookie Justin Fields. Any or all of the three are capable of guiding the offense on touchdown drives against the Dolphins on Saturday. Meanwhile, Miami has already been dealing with a number of key injuries at training camp and I see it as a team that is simply looking to come out of this game unscathed injury-wise, with perhaps a few positive moments from QB Tua Tagovailoa to take away as well. The Dolphins may give veteran backup QB Jacoby Brissett the bulk of the snaps in this one but he's learning a new offense with unfamiliar faces after coming over from the Colts. The Dolphins are reportedly active in the trade market right now as they look for help on the offensive line. That's obviously not a good sign - again, they'll simply be looking to turn in a clean performance and avoid any more injuries and certainly won't look to put their quarterbacks under too much duress in this one. Expect a rather 'safe' offensive gameplan from the 'Fins in this one. |
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08-13-21 | Cowboys +1.5 v. Cardinals | 16-19 | Loss | -110 | 111 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas plus the points over Arizona at 10 pm et on Friday. The Cowboys failed to reach the end zone in their preseason opener against the Steelers last week and that ugly loss in front of a national audience is a big reason why they're catching points against NFC West sleeper squad Arizona on Friday night. I do expect to see progression from Dallas in this one. The Cowboys offense struggled last week but that was expected as we rarely see sharp performances in the Hall of Fame Game and they were up against a Steelers defense that erased big plays by loading up the secondary as they looked to evaluate corners in that contest. The Cardinals obviously have plenty of starpower but their starters will likely see just a cameo appearance in this one. After Kyler Murray, we're likely to see journeyman QB Colt McCoy and former CFL standout Chris Streveler see the bulk of the snaps with the rest of the backups (and beyond) in this one. Neither instill a great deal of confidence against a Cowboys defense that has already seen game action, and also benefited from the opportunity to take part in joint practices with the Rams this past weekend. Take Dallas (10*). |
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08-13-21 | Titans v. Falcons | 23-3 | Loss | -120 | 6 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta over Tennessee at 7 pm et on Friday. Everyone is high on the Titans entering the 2021 season and for good reason. They added Julio Jones to an already dynamic offense and should be poised to go on another playoff run. That of course means little in the preseason, however. We're only likely to see cameo appearances from the Titans starters here. Note that Tennessee has only managed to win two of eight preseason games under the guidance of head coach Mike Vrabel going back to 2018. The Falcons have a new head coach in Arthur Smith and the former Titans offensive coordinator could certainly put a little extra stock in beating his former team here. I like the Falcons QB rotation a little more than that of the Titans with Feleipe Franks likely to see the bulk of the action in the second half. I like Franks mobility here as he should be able to extend plays against the Titans defensive backups. Keep in mind, Tennessee doesn't have an elite defense to begin with so when you get into the second and third level on the depth chart, there's reason for optimism when it comes to the Falcons offense. Take Atlanta (5*). |
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08-12-21 | Washington Football Team -2 v. Patriots | Top | 13-22 | Loss | -108 | 85 h 31 m | Show |
NFLX Game of the Week. My selection is on Washington minus the points over New England at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. If a road team is favored in Week 1 of the NFL preseason, there's usually a valid reason for it. I believe that statement holds true in this matchup as the Washington Football Team travels to Foxborough to take on the New England Patriots. Washington head coach Ron Rivera sounds like he's taking the preseason seriously right out of the gate this season, indicating his starters are likely to see extended playing time on Thursday night. Whether or not that will actually be the case remains to be seen but regardless, I like the mentality he's building in his team that these preseason games are important. Here's a telling quote from Rivera from the weekend, “I think we have to grow and mature as a football team. I don’t think we can show up and automatically assume we’re gonna pick up where we left off last year.'' Washington boasts a very capable QB rotation with Ryan Fitzpatrick, Taylor Heinecke, Kyle Allen and Colorado U standout Steven Montez. The Patriots have been dealing with a number of injuries over the past week and will simply look to come out of this preseason opener healthy. Yes, rookie QB Mac Jones pushing veteran Cam Newton is a popular storyline at Patriots camp but the reality is Newton will more than likely begin the season as the starter, even though he has reportedly struggled in the early stages of training camp. He'll likely see only a cameo appearance on Thursday while Jones is still learning the offense and has spent more of his time working with the 'ones' at camp, and might struggle should he be on the field with backups on Thursday. Behind Newton and Jones will be veteran Brian Hoyer and Jake Dolegala. That duo inspires little confidence in the Pats ability to find much second half offensive success in this one. Take Washington (10*). |
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08-25-19 | Steelers v. Titans -3 | 18-6 | Loss | -110 | 108 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tennessee minus the points over Pittsburgh at 8 pm et on Sunday. Titans head coach Mike Vrabel certainly doesn’t boast a positive preseason track record at 1-5 ATS but we’re obviously dealing with a very small sample size. Last week there were plenty of positives for Vrabel to take away, even in a 22-17 loss to the Patriots. Keep in mind, the Pats have put a strong emphasis on preparing the right way and winning on the road this August after going 3-5 away from home last regular season. I’m not really going to fault the Titans for that hard-fought loss that really could have gone either way last week. The Steelers check in a perfect 2-0 this August but under the guidance of Mike Tomlin, they’re still a losing preseason bet long-term having gone 25-26-1 ATS. We’re not likely going to see the traditional ‘Week 3 dress rehearsal’ gameplan from the Steelers as they’ve generally treated Ben Roethlisberger with kit gloves in the month of August. I simply feel this one means a little more to the Titans at home, and they’re being favored for a reason. Take Tennessee (10*). |
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08-24-19 | Cardinals v. Vikings -7 | 9-20 | Win | 100 | 77 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota minus the points over Arizona at 1 pm et on Saturday. While I do expect the Cardinals offense and rookie QB Kyler Murray in particular to perform better than they did in last week’s loss to the Raiders, I’m not convinced their defense can do anything to slow down the Vikings on Saturday afternoon in Minnesota. The Vikings have a tremendous preseason track record under head coach Mike Zimmer, having gone a perfect 2-0 SU and ATS this August and 16-7 ATS since he took over the job. As I’ve mentioned in my analysis of ‘over’ plays on the Vikings first two preseason affairs, they have a sneaky-good preseason QB rotation with Kyle Sloter and Sean Mannion following Kirk Cousins. Both Sloter and Mannion have excelled through two games and in Sloter’s case he’s been a bonafide preseason stud going back to last year as well. I don’t believe there’s any reason to expect a letdown from the Vikings here as they stay home for a second straight game before closing things out in Buffalo next week. This is a lofty pointspread by preseason standards, but it’s warranted in my opinion. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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08-22-19 | Packers -3 v. Raiders | 21-22 | Loss | -107 | 36 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on Green Bay minus the points over Oakland at 8 pm et on Thursday. Note that this game will be played north of the border in Winnipeg, Manitoba. If anything that should give the Packers a bit of a home field advantage in terms of fan support (even if this game isn’t well-attended as has been speculated). Green Bay’s gameplan got shifted somewhat last-minute with QB Aaron Rodgers sitting due to a minor injury against the Ravens last week. The Packers ultimately lost that game so come into this one sporting an even 1-1 mark. Rodgers isn’t likely to see a great deal of action in this game either but that’s ok for our purposes as QB Tim Boyle has plenty of preseason upside and has thrown for three touchdowns and 147 yards on just 15 completions through two games. The Raiders took advantage of a depleted Cardinals defense last week to improve to a perfect 2-0 in the preseason. I expect Oakland to face a tougher challenge here, noting that its other victory came over a Rams squad that has looked generally disinterested in winning in the month of August this year. The Raiders have got terrific quarterback play from veteran Mike Glennon in particular so far, but I see his run ending here (Derek Carr and the rest of the Raiders regular starters should see extended action). Take Green Bay (10*). |
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08-22-19 | Panthers +3.5 v. Patriots | Top | 3-10 | Loss | -105 | 35 h 27 m | Show |
NFLX Game of the Year. My selection is on Carolina plus the points over New England at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. We’ve won with the Patriots in each of the last two weeks, taking full advantage of the fact that they’ve placed a strong emphasis on preparing the right way and winning on the road in this year’s preseason after going a disappointing 3-5 on the road last regular season. Now New England returns home as a favorite against the Panthers, but I simply don’t believe that Bill Bellichick is going to put a lot of stock in whether it picks up a win or suffers its first loss of the exhibition campaign – even if it is the traditional ‘Week 3 dress rehearsal’ game. The Panthers are coming off an ugly 27-14 home loss to the Bills last week, which came on the heels of a 23-13 win in Chicago to open the preseason. We didn’t see many of the Panthers regular starters in last week’s contest but that should change this week. Note that even after last week’s loss, the Panthers have posted a respectable 18-15-1 ATS record in the preseason under head coach Ron Rivera. Take Carolina (10*). |
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08-17-19 | Lions v. Texans -4 | Top | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 107 h 31 m | Show |
NFLX Game of the Week. My selection is on Houston minus the points over Detroit at 8 pm et on Saturday. I really like the way this one sets up for the favored Texans as they try to bounce back from last week’s ‘not as close as it looked’ 28-26 loss in Green Bay. First of all, the Lions are now 1-4 ATS in the preseason since Matt Patricia took over last year. They were a complete no-show in last week’s blowout loss to the Patriots. I don’t see this as an ideal bounce-back spot against an equally hungry Texans squad coming off a loss. Detroit will likely give plenty of time to Tom Savage and David Fales under center again this week, which doesn’t bode well for its offense after they combined to complete 7-of-17 passes for only 102 yards and an interception last week. The Texans have a proven preseason performer at quarterback in Joe Webb. He threw for 286 yards and a touchdown to go along with a pair of interceptions and also ran for 47 yards on six carries last week. Credit Houston for not folding the tent after falling behind 28-10 entering the fourth quarter last week, putting up 16 unanswered points in the game’s final 14 minutes. Note that the Texans are 12-7-1 ATS under Bill O’Brien in the preseason. Take Houston (10*). |
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08-17-19 | Patriots -3 v. Titans | 22-17 | Win | 100 | 105 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on New England minus the points over Tennessee at 7 pm et on Saturday. I'll lay the points again with the Patriots this week as they once again put an emphasis on winning on the road after going 3-5 away from home during the regular season last year. Last week's blowout win over the Lions was never in doubt and while this one isn't likely to be as lopsided, I still believe we'll see New England win and cover. Even without Tom Brady on the field, the Pats suddenly have a solid QB rotation by preseason standards with veteran Brian Hoyer and rookie Jarrett Stidham. Stidham in particular stood out last week, throw for 179 yards on 14 pass completions while also adding a touchdown. Even with the Titans win in Philadelphia last week, they're still just 1-4 ATS in the preseason under the guidance of former Patriot Mike Vrabel. Bill Bellichick's excellent preseason track record with the Pats is well-known. Look for him to school another former subject here. Take New England (10*). |
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08-10-19 | Cowboys v. 49ers -4.5 | Top | 9-17 | Win | 100 | 24 h 14 m | Show |
NFLX Game of the Week. My selection is on San Francisco minus the points over Dallas at 9 pm et on Saturday. The 49ers are laying more than the standard field goal here in their home preseason opener on Saturday night, largely due to the fact that two experienced quarterbacks in Nick Mullens and C.J. Beathard are expected to split time and play the majority of the game. I believe the line is warranted and look for the Niners to ultimately pull away for the win and cover. Keep in mind, last year the Niners needed a 14-point fourth quarter rally to defeat the Cowboys by a 24-21 score in this same matchup in Week 1 of the preseason. Beathard and Mullens each threw an interception in that game. The fact is, the Cowboys offense didn't do much, and I don't expect much different of a story to play out here. The difference is the 49ers QB duo are more experienced and should be able to take care of the football. While I'm not necessarily on board with the thinking that the Niners will be much improved this season (I have a lot of questions about their defense), I do expect them to prevail here. Take San Francisco (10*). |
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08-08-19 | Patriots -1 v. Lions | 31-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on New England minus the points over Detroit at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. All indications are that the Patriots are putting an emphasis on winning this week's preseason opener in Detroit, or as much of an emphasis as you can expect for an exhibition game anyway. After going 3-5 away from home last season, New England is focused on preparing the right way and delivering a complete performance against the Lions. I don't expect Bill Bellichick to make anything easy on his former defensive coordinator - now Lions head coach Matt Patricia. There's never a whole lot to go on this early in the preseason, but here I do expect to see the Pats put their best foot forward. Take New England (10*). |
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08-25-18 | Saints +2.5 v. Chargers | Top | 36-7 | Win | 100 | 23 h 56 m | Show |
NFLX Preseason Game of the Year. My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Los Angeles at 8 pm et on Saturday. The Saints couldn't follow up on their preseason-opening 24-20 road win over the Jaguars, falling by a 20-15 score at home against the Cardinals last week. I do expect to see Sean Payton's squad bounce back this Saturday, however, as they hit the road to face the Chargers. Los Angeles dropped its opener in Arizona but responded with a 24-14 win over the Seahawks last week. Keep in mind, Drew Brees has yet to play for the Saints this preseason, but he is expected to be on the field on Saturday night. I do expect to see Brees make more than just a cameo appearance here. Note that the Saints have gone a perfect 7-0 SU and ATS when on the road for their second to last preseason game - the so-called 'dress rehearsal' game - since 2004. Take New Orleans (10*). |
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08-25-18 | Chiefs +2.5 v. Bears | 20-27 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kansas City plus the points over Chicago at 1 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams have high hopes entering the 2018 season and both have looked impressive, at least at times, during preseason action. I simply feel that the Chiefs are a little further along in their progression at this point and I’m confident they’ll come away with their second consecutive victory on Saturday afternoon in Chicago. We saw the best of Chiefs QB Pat Mahomes in last week’s game in Atlanta as he threw for 138 yards and a score (to go along with an interception) and also ran the ball for a couple of nice gains. Defensively, the Chiefs have done a pretty nice job through their first two games and will face a Bears offense that is still very much a work in progress. Chicago did pick up its first win of the preseason in Denver last Saturday night as it rallied late for a 24-23 victory. Expect a different story to unfold on Saturday afternoon at Soldier Field in what should be a fairly entertaining affair by NFL Preseason standards. Take Kansas City (10*). |
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08-24-18 | Broncos +3 v. Redskins | 29-17 | Win | 100 | 23 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection will be on Denver plus the points over Washington at 7:30 pm et on Friday. All eyes will be on Redskins newly-signed RB Adrian Peterson on Friday night but I expect him to have little impact on the outcome of this game. The Broncos have yet to taste victory here in the preseason after giving up a couple of late touchdowns in a 24-23 home loss to the Bears last week. I do feel they’ll put some relevance in grabbing a win here in Landover, even if it is still just preseason football. Meanwhile, the Redskins picked up their first victory in August last week against the Jets. It was a fairly ugly contest with both offenses struggling to punch the football into the end zone. There are still plenty of kinks to be worked out on offense for QB Alex Smith and the Redskins. I look for the Broncos to prove to be the sharper squad on Friday night. Take Denver (10*). |
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08-23-18 | Eagles v. Browns -3 | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 24 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland minus the points over Philadelphia at 8 pm et on Thursday. It’s fairly evident through two preseason games that the Eagles are putting virtually no weight on August victories. Philadelphia’s main concern right now is getting its QB tandem of Carson Wentz and Nick Foles healthy before its regular season opener on September 6th. Foles is expected to see some action on Thursday but how much he plays and how vanilla the offense he is running is remains to be seen. Meanwhile, the Browns have drummed up plenty of preseason hype despite only splitting their first two games. Both Tyrod Taylor and Baker Mayfield should get extended playing time on Thursday night and while there’s no true QB controversy in Cleveland right now – at least according to head coach Hue Jackson – both Taylor and Mayfield are playing like there is. I believe the oddsmakers have got it right installing the Browns as the favorite in this matchup and feel the line could be even higher were it not for the two teams’ reputations. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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08-16-18 | Jets v. Redskins -1.5 | 13-15 | Win | 100 | 71 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington minus the points over New York at 8 pm et on Thursday. These two teams had much different experiences in Week 1 of NFL Preseason action. The Jets cruised to a shutout victory over the Falcons at home while the Redskins blew a 17-10 fourth quarter lead in New England - ultimately falling by a 26-17 score. I fully expect Washington to play with more purpose here as it tries to notch its first victory of the preseason. I like the fact that the Redskins employ a solid QB rotation with Colt McCoy and Kevin Hogan seeing the bulk of the action. Even Hogan has had plenty of experience playing in the preseason over the last couple of years. The Jets have a nice QB rotation of their own with rookie Sam Darnold and Teddy Bridgewater following veteran Josh McCown. With that being said, I'm not sure that trio can perform much better than it did last week, completing 21-of-27 passes for 185 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions. Even with that near perfect preseason performance they still only managed to score 17 points in the victory. After losing rookie RB Derrius Guice to a season-ending injury last week, the Redskins are in desperate need of a positive in the form of a victory this Thursday. Take Washington (10*). |