Sports Picks & Predictions

My selection is on San Francisco minus the points over Detroit at 6:30 pm et on Sunday.

The Lions have needed everything they had in the tank to get past the Rams and Buccaneers in the first two rounds of the playoffs. Now they hit the road for the first time in the postseason and I believe it's a case of being in the wrong place at the wrong time as they take on the 49ers in Santa Clara on Sunday. Detroit is dealing with a cluster of injuries on its offensive line with Jonah Jackson and Frank Ragnow both banged-up. Keep in mind, the Lions offense already takes a hit at the best of times on the road, QB Jared Goff in particular. The 49ers defense presents a nightmarish matchup for most opposing offenses and this is no different. Playing from behind isn't the Lions strength but that's a situation I expect them to be in for much of the evening on Sunday. That likely means more of standout rookie RB Jahmyr Gibbs, which doesn't seem like a negative on the face of it but veteran David Montgomery is the much better pass blocker and Goff will need all the help he can get against a ferocious 49ers defensive front. San Francisco QB Brock Purdy struggled mightily in the wet weather against the Packers last Saturday but should face no such difficulty with a flawless forecast in store this week. Purdy should be able to take the lid off the Lions leaky pass defense with WR Brandon Aiyuk. Whether or not WR Deebo Samuel can play isn't all that relevant as far as I'm concerned as the Niners can beat the Lions in several other ways, including with TE George Kittle who draws a smash spot against a defense that has had no success containing opposing TE's this season. RB Christian McCaffrey runs into a very tough matchup here but that's nothing new. He tends to exceed expectations on the regular in this type of contest. The Lions are just 14-20 ATS in their last 34 games following three straight wins. Meanwhile, the Niners are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a win but non-cover and 4-0 ATS in their last four contests after a victory by three points or less. Take San Francisco (8*).

Divisional Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Baltimore minus the points over Houston at 4:30 pm et on Saturday.

I don't think it can be understated just how well the Ravens were playing prior to resting their starters in Week 18 against Pittsburgh (they lost that game 17-10). They had won six straight games heading into that contest, going 5-1 ATS over that stretch. The wins were all impressive including a 37-31 victory over the Rams in a rainstorm in Baltimore, a 33-19 rout of the 49ers in Santa Clara and a 56-19 dismantling of the Dolphins at home. I love what the Texans have done this season. They're undoubtedly a team on the rise and C.J. Stroud is already being talked about as a top-five quarterback in the league (rightfully so). They're running into an extremely difficult matchup here, however. The Ravens aren't the type of team to take their foot off the gas and they have favorable matchups all over the field on offense. Not only has Houston struggled to defend the pass this season but it has had a miserable time containing running quarterbacks, having allowed a whopping seven rushing touchdowns to opposing signal-callers. Derek Stingley Jr. erased Amari Cooper in last week's blowout win over the Browns but he'll be hard-pressed to do so against anyone particular in the Ravens multi-pronged aerial attack on Saturday. With TE Mark Andrews trending toward playing trouble abounds for the second level of the Texans defense. Even if Andrews can't go, TE Isaiah Likely figures to go off. Note that Houston is 4-7 ATS in its last 11 games following an upset victory, as is the case here. In fact, the Texans are 7-16 ATS in their last 23 contests following an outright win as a home underdog. They're also 8-19 ATS in their last 27 games following three straight ATS victories. Meanwhile, the Ravens are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following a loss against a division opponent. They're also 35-27 ATS in their last 62 contests following a home loss. Take Baltimore (10*).

Wild Card Game of the Year. My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over Pittsburgh at 4:30 pm et on Monday.

UPDATE: This game has been moved to Monday. I’ll still be playing the Bills minus the points.

Weather can be the great equalizer at this time of year and with high winds projected for kickoff of this Wild Card matchup on Sunday afternoon in Orchard Park, there are those that believe that will favor the underdog Steelers who are essentially playing with house money at this point. I think it's going to be a real struggle for Pittsburgh to score points in this game, regardless how the weather turns out. Buffalo somewhat quietly enters this game riding a five-game winning streak including a 21-14 victory in Miami last Sunday night to secure the AFC East division title and the Wild Card home game that goes with it. Unlike previous years, the Bills have been forced to essentially play playoff football for weeks just to get into the postseason. I think that actually works in their favor this year and while the road to the Super Bowl runs through Baltimore in the AFC, I believe the argument can be made that the Bills are playing as well as any team in the conference right now. Pittsburgh is in this game thanks to a three-game stretch at the end of the regular season that saw it face the Bengals (without Joe Burrow among others), Seahawks (who got worse as the season went on) and the Ravens (resting the majority of their starters). Note that the Steelers are just 4-7 ATS in their last 11 games following a road win. Meanwhile, Buffalo is 20-14 ATS in its last 34 home contests as a favorite of between 7.5 and 14 points. Take Buffalo (10*).

NFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Detroit at 8:15 pm et on Sunday.

The Rams enter the playoffs playing as well as anyone over the last two months, winners of seven of their last eight games having gone 6-2 ATS over that stretch. They're in their sweet spot on Sunday as they've gone 25-18 ATS in their last 43 road games as an underdog of three points or less. Meanwhile, the Lions are just 12-19 ATS in their last 31 games following a double-digit victory over a division opponent, as is the case here. Detroit head coach Dan Campbell elected to play his starters in last Sunday's win over the Vikings and paid the price to a certain extent with standout rookie TE Sam LaPorta suffering an injury. He has actually been able to get in limited practice this week and is expected to play but it remains to be seen how effective he can actually be. Regardless, I don't believe this is a favorable matchup for the Lions. I don't think there's anything more dangerous than an experienced team that catches fire late in the season and goes on the road in the Wild Card round of the playoffs. The pressure rests squarely on the Lions shoulders in their first home playoff game in three decades. Keep in mind, Detroit played another seemingly massive home game back on Thanksgiving Day against the Packers and was stunned 29-22 as a near-double-digit favorite. Few teams can match Detroit's personnel at the skill positions on offense but Los Angeles is one of them with the emergence of rookie WR Puka Nacua and RB Kyren Williams this season. Note that the underdog has gone 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings in this series. Take Los Angeles (10*).

My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over Miami at 8:20 pm et on Sunday.

The Bills have been playing playoff football for the last month-plus as they desperately try to work their way into the postseason - a destination that was thought to be a sure thing earlier in the season. The Dolphins have already clinched a playoff spot but would certainly like to avoid tumbling down the AFC pecking order. Of course, their main focus right now is probably on avoiding any more injuries. I simply see two teams heading in opposite directions at this point. The Bills haven't been covering spreads but they haven't needed to to win games as double-digit favorites over the last two weeks. Note that those two ATS defeats do set up Buffalo well as it has gone a long-term 62-38 ATS following consecutive ATS losses. While the Dolphins may appear to be in a solid bounce-back spot off last week's drubbing in Baltimore, history says otherwise. Miami is just 13-23 ATS in its last 36 games following a loss by 21 points or more. Take Buffalo (8*).

NFC West Game of the Month. My selection is on Seattle minus the points over Arizona at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

The Seahawks are of course in a must-win situation in Arizona on Sunday and while I'll rarely look to back teams on that premise alone, I do like the way this spot sets up for Seattle (which needs a victory and some help to get into the playoffs). First we'll note that Seattle has owned this series recently, going 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. The road team is also a long-term 14-6-1 ATS in the last 21 matchups between these two teams. The Cardinals are in a big letdown spot here after upsetting the Eagles in Philadelphia last Sunday. Few expected them to be remotely competitive in that game. Of course, what worked last week may not work this week. The Cardinals ran wild on the Eagles. While the Seahawks haven't exactly played stout run defense, they do get back one of their best run stoppers in LB Jordyn Brooks from an ankle injury this week. Seattle is a long-term 121-100 ATS when coming off a loss and 62-45 ATS after giving up 30 points or more in their last game. The Cards are 7-11 ATS when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent and 15-19 ATS in their last 34 games after scoring 35 points or more in their previous contest. Take Seattle (10*).

AFC Game of the Week. My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over Cincinnati at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

This is a massive bounce-back spot for both of these teams with the Bengals coming off a stunning beatdown in Pittsburgh and the Chiefs fresh off a Christmas Day upset at home at the hands of the hated Raiders. The difference here is, Kansas City has the personnel in place to bounce back. Cincinnati, in its current form, does not. The Bengals defense has been a massive disappointment this season, unable to stop the run or the pass. Needless to say, despite its struggles against Las Vegas on Monday, Kansas City has the pieces in place to explode on offense. This is a smash spot for Chiefs TE Travis Kelce in particular. With all signs pointing to Chiefs RB Isaiah Pacheco being good to go as well, we'll give Kansas City the green light on offense on Sunday. It's a different story for the Bengals as they try to squeeze as much as they can out of QB Jake Browning. He has regressed considerably and has yet to truly riff with elite WR Ja'Marr Chase, who is expected back this week. Note that the Chiefs are a long-term 63-47 ATS in their last 110 games after losing two of their last three contests, as is the case here. The Bengals are just 8-14 ATS in their last 22 games following a loss by 21 points or more against a divisional opponent, which is the situation they're in on Sunday. Take Kansas City (10*).

My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Arizona at 1 pm et on Sunday.

This is a blowup spot for the Eagles offense as they face a weary Cardinals defense that just got tagged for 72 points in its last two games against the 49ers and Bears. Philadelphia is in line to feast offensively after hanging 33 points on the board without breaking a sweat against the Giants on Christmas Day. The Eagles defense is another story entirely. Philadelphia has been vulnerable at times defensively this season but I don't believe Arizona has the personnel in place to take advantage. TE Trey McBride is a bright spot to be sure and he's likely to get his in this particular matchup. Can anyone else pick up the rest of the slack though? I'm not convinced. You would be hard-pressed to find a weaker wide receiving corps than that of the Cards. QB Kyler Murray has made a respectable return but he's going to be in tough against the Eagles pass rush here. This is a game where Philadelphia should be able to jump ahead, much like they did against New York, but successfully salt away the win and cover on this occasion. Take Philadelphia (8*).

NFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Dallas minus the points over Detroit at 8:15 pm et on Saturday.

The Cowboys are in a prime bounce-back spot as they return home following consecutive losses in Buffalo and Miami. Detroit on the other hand finds itself in a letdown spot after clinching the NFC North division with last week's win (and cover) in Minnesota. While I fully expect Dallas to crash and burn at some point in the playoffs, I do think it has plenty of upside over the next 2-3 weeks. Note that the Lions are a miserable 12-30 ATS in their last 42 road games following consecutive wins. Meanwhile, Dallas is a perfect 6-0 in its last six home games as a favorite of a touchdown or less. The Cowboys are also 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS defeat, as is the case here. Take Dallas (10*).

My selection is on San Francisco minus the points over Baltimore at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

Fresh off a fourth straight win, this one coming on the road against Jacksonville in primetime last week, we'll fade the Ravens here as they face the 49ers in what is being billed as a potential Super Bowl preview. San Francisco is rolling right now. Even last week when it didn't bring its 'A' game defensively, it still laid waste to the Cardinals by 16 points. That marked the Niners sixth straight victory having gone 4-2 ATS over that stretch. San Francisco has been a terrific bet playing with positive momentum as it checks in 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games after scoring 25 points or more in consecutive games, as is the case here. The Niners are also 24-12 ATS in their last 36 games following a win. Take San Francisco (8*).

NFC North Game of the Year. My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday.

Easy call for us here as we'll back the underdog Vikings at home after they dropped a hard-fought 27-24 decision in Cincinnati last Saturday while the Lions rolled to a blowout in over the Broncos. Note that the home team has gone 6-1 SU in the last seven meetings in this series. Detroit is just one game removed from a 15-point loss in Chicago and checks in a miserable 17-32 ATS in its last 49 games as a road favorite. Minnesota on the other hand is 40-24 ATS in its last 64 games as a home underdog and 6-2 ATS in its last eight contests following a loss by six points or less. Take Minnesota (10*).

AFC North Game of the Month. My selection is on Pittsburgh plus the points over Cincinnati at 4:30 pm et on Saturday.

These teams are quite clearly heading in opposite directions right now but I like the Steelers chances of snapping their three-game losing streak as they stare down consecutive road games in Seattle and Baltimore to close out the season. Remember, on November 26th the Steelers went into Cincinnati as road favorites and delivered a 16-10 victory. No Kenny Pickett this time around but Pittsburgh will be essentially facing the same Bengals led by QB Jake Browning but with no WR Ja'Marr Chase or nose tackle D.J. Reader. The Steelers offense has fallen on hard times and will now turn to third-stringer Mason Rudolph at quarterback. While that's not all that encouraging, I don't believe he'll be asked to do too much as the Steelers should be able to run all over the Bengals front line. Note that Pittsburgh is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games after giving up 30 or more points in its most recent contest while it is also 33-18 ATS in its last 51 home games following a double-digit loss. Take Pittsburgh (10*).

My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over New Orleans at 8:15 pm et on Thursday.

The Rams nearly let the Commanders off the hook in Sunday's 28-20 win. They did hold on for the cover - their fourth straight ATS victory. Speaking of winning streaks, the Saints enter this game 'fat and happy' off consecutive blowout home wins over the Panthers and Giants. New York inexplicably elected to abandon its ground game against New Orleans' charmin-soft run defense and ultimately paid the price. I'm confident we'll see the Rams display a more balanced offensive attack here and wear down the New Orleans defense. There's little reason to have much faith in the Saints offense. They've run for 100+ yards just twice in their last six games and have topped 250 passing yards only once over that stretch (in a nine-point loss in Atlanta). Note that the home team is 8-1 in the last nine meetings in this series with none of those eight victories coming by fewer than six points. Take Los Angeles (8*).

My selection is on Dallas plus the points over Buffalo at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

This is undoubtedly a game the Cowboys have had circled on their calendars since the start of the season - a long-awaited rematch with the Bills after dropping a 26-15 decision at home against Buffalo back in 2019. That most recent meeting between these two teams four years ago also featured the quarterback matchup of Josh Allen vs. Dak Prescott. Prescott threw for 355 yards in a losing effort on that day. He's been MVP-worthy this season and while Dallas is likely to stumble at some point, I don't see it coming here. Buffalo is fresh off a massive road win over the Chiefs last Sunday. I expect the Bills success to be short-lived, however, noting they haven't strung together consecutive wins since a three-game winning streak from September 17th to October 1st. Note that Buffalo is a long-term 57-90 ATS when coming off two ATS wins in its last three games, as is the case here. Take Dallas (8*).

My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Cleveland at 1 pm et on Sunday.

I generally anticipate games getting tighter and tighter at this time of year in Cleveland, where the December weather can be unpredictable and the Browns tend to go conservative in nature on offense. The Bears are quietly one of the hottest teams in the league right now, winners of three games in a row ATS and an impressive 6-2-1 ATS over their last nine contests. That's in stark contrast to the Browns, who have dropped two of their last three games both SU and ATS and narrowly avoided coughing up a back-door cover against the Jags (in a game where Jacksonville didn't bring anything close to its 'A' game) last Sunday. Cleveland has inexplicably thrown the ball 89 times in the last two games with Joe Flacco at quarterback. I'm confident fading Flacco and the Browns offense here as the veteran QB is likely to be under duress all afternoon long against a much-improved Bears pass rush. Take Chicago (8*).

My selection is on Carolina plus the points over Atlanta at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The underdog has gone 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings in this series and they don't get much uglier than the 1-12 Panthers. As bad as things have gone for Carolina it has actually dropped the cash in consecutive games just once over its last seven contests. Note that the Panthers are 26-12 ATS in their last 38 games following a double-digit loss against a division opponent, as is the case here. Carolina is also 18-7 ATS in its last 25 contests after scoring six points or less in its previous game. The Falcons have won just one of five road games by more than a field goal this season. Take Carolina (8*).

AFC Game of the Year. My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over New England at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Chiefs are a screaming buy right now coming off consecutive losses, both SU and ATS, especially given the nature of last Sunday's home defeat against the Bills in which QB Patrick Mahomes in particular felt his team was shafted by the officials (even though it clearly wasn't). The SU winner has gone a perfect 13-0 ATS in the Patriots previous contests this season and I look for that trend to continue here. New England does have the rest advantage having not played since a week ago Thursday in Pittsburgh, when it staged a 21-18 upset victory. That win was about as ugly as it gets as the Pats gained just north of 300 total yards of offense and made an early lead stand up against Mitchell Trubisky and the Steelers. I don't need to tell you that there's an ocean between facing Trubisky and Mahomes, even with the Chiefs offense struggling at times this season. Note that Kansas City is a long-term 55-36 ATS when playing on the road following a loss. Meanwhile, New England is just 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games as an underdog. Take Kansas City (10*).

NFC Game of the Week. My selection is on New York plus the points over New Orleans at 1 pm et on Sunday.

This spot sets up beautifully for the Giants in the sense that they have the ground game to gash the Saints and effectively shorten proceedings as a considerable road underdog. QB Tommy DeVito has grabbed plenty of headlines for his surprisingly efficient play. I don't expect him to be asked to do too much in this spot. The Saints are coming off a blowout win over the hapless Panthers but that victory had more to do with Carolina's inability to finish drives than anything else. Note that New Orleans is just 2-8 ATS as a favorite this season and 4-13 ATS in its last 17 contests following an ATS victory. Meanwhile, the Giants are a long-term 113-83 ATS on the road against NFC foes and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 contests as an underdog of between 3.5 and 9.5 points. Take New York (10*).

Non-Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Detroit minus the points over Denver at 8:15 pm et on Saturday.

NFL teams don't often get a shot at a 'do-over' but this is about as close as it comes for the Lions as they host the Broncos in a pre-holiday primetime game after laying an egg on Thanksgiving Day against the Packers. Adding fuel to Detroit's fire is the fact that it's coming off another stunning defeat against a divisional opponent in Chicago last Sunday. Perhaps QB Jared Goff's struggles in that contest were predictable as he hasn't travelled well over the course of his career. Here, he and the Lions draw a smash spot against a Broncos team that's 'fat and happy' off a 24-7 rout of the Chargers (who lost QB Justin Herbert to injury in the game) in Los Angeles last Sunday. Denver has improved, that's for sure. The Broncos are in the playoff picture thanks to a 6-1 SU run. I think they're in the wrong place at the wrong time on Saturday, however. Note that Denver is 1-5 ATS in its last six games following an upset win and 2-5 ATS in its last seven road contests as an underdog of a touchdown or less. Detroit on the other hand is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games following a double-digit loss. The last time we saw it in that situation it delivered a 26-14 win over the Raiders in a primetime game on October 30th. Take Detroit (10*).

TNF Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points first half over Las Vegas at 8:15 pm et on Thursday.

In a battle of backup quarterbacks with both teams missing a number of key contributors on offense, I'll grab the points with the Chargers in the first half. My issue with Los Angeles for the full game is head coach Brandon Staley's track record closing out football games. That's not to mention the fact that Raiders QB Aidan O'Connell will likely be on a short leash here and his presence is one of the main reasons I'm interested in fading Las Vegas. Should Jimmy Garoppolo get another shot at running the offense, I could see the Raiders getting a spark. I do think the Raiders will need to make considerable halftime adjustments to support their offensive line, which is missing a pair of starters due to injury. The Chargers are set up well to feast on that Raiders o-line in the first half. On the flip side, we'll likely see Los Angeles lean heavily on swiss army knife RB Austin Ekeler against a Raiders run defense that has been torched for 4.4 yards per rush this season. QB Easton Stick won't have his top target on the field in WR Keenan Allen but I do like Stick's arm, not to mention his mobility, which he flashed during his years with North Dakota State. Keep in mind, Stick has been with the Chargers since 2019 and has the advantage of being familiar with the playbook, something that O'Connell has seemingly struggled to grasp in his first season as a Raider. Note that Los Angeles is 15-5 ATS in the first half in its last 20 games following a double-digit upset loss, as is the case here. Meanwhile, Las Vegas is 0-6 ATS in the first half in its last six games when seeking revenge for a loss by seven points or less against an opponent, which is also the situation here. Take Los Angeles first half (10*).

My selection is on New York plus the points over Green Bay at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

The Packers are coming off three straight wins including high-profile, high-visibility victories (and covers) over the Lions on Thanksgiving Day and the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football last week. We'll gladly step in and fade Green Bay as it plays on the road laying nearly a touchdown against the Giants on Monday. New York has quietly reeled off consecutive wins and enters this contest off its bye week. There's a path for success for the Giants here as the Packers can't stop the run and New York has a healthy Saquon Barkley capable of delivering a strong performance on Monday. Green Bay's offense has looked sharp over the last couple of weeks but will have to go on without WR Christian Watson. After committing at least one turnover in seven straight games, the Packers have turned in three straight clean performances. I'm thinking that changes here with the Giants defense having forced a whopping 11 turnovers over their last three contests. Take New York (8*).

My selection is on Las Vegas plus the points over Minnesota at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

The Vikings had their run. I think their season is all but done, even if their even 6-6 record indicates otherwise. They'll get a big boost with the return of WR Justin Jefferson this week but that's been more than factored into this line. Yes, Minnesota enters this game with a chip on its shoulder after consecutive losses but Las Vegas is in precisely the same position. There's no real shame in the Raiders last two losses as they came on the road against the Dolphins and at home against the Chiefs. Note that Las Vegas is 4-2 SU at home this season. The Vikings are an identical 4-2 on the road but just 1-1 with Josh Dobbs as their starting quarterback. I don't think there's much at all separating these two teams yet we're catching a field goal with the Raiders at home. Take Las Vegas (8*).

NFC West Game of the Year. My selection is on San Francisco minus the points over Seattle at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

The 49ers have won four straight meetings in this series by a combined score of 120-56. I don't envision the Seahawks closing the gap one bit on Sunday afternoon in Santa Clara. Seattle left it all on the field in last week's 41-35 loss in Dallas. I'm not sure how much Seattle has left in the tank following three straight losses that have dropped it to an even 6-6 on the campaign. QB Geno Smith is among those banged up heading into this matchup. There's a good chance we'll see backup QB Drew Lock at some point in this game. The 49ers have been a streaky team and I look for them to match their season-long three-game ATS winning streak here. This is a team that is still ascending offensively and essentially playing mistake-free football with just one turnover in its last four contests. Defensively, we've already seen the Niners absolutely wreck the Seahawks offense on Thanksgiving Night. Note that the Niners are a perfect 9-0 ATS in their last nine games against divisional opponents and 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games as a home favorite. Take San Francisco (10*).

My selection is on Cleveland minus the points over Jacksonville at 1 pm et on Sunday.

This game is set up on a platter for the Browns as they return home off consecutive blowout losses in Denver and Los Angeles, even if the latter featured a rather misleading final score. Jacksonville is playing on a short week after getting punched in the mouth by the Joe Burrow-less Bengals on Monday night. QB Trevor Lawrence is banged up. Whether he plays or not remains up in the air but regardless, this is a difficult matchup for the Bengals offense against a Browns defense that surely has a bad taste in its mouth. Cleveland may turn to QB Joe Flacco again on Sunday. He actually provided some stability to the offense last week against the Rams. I do think we'll see the Browns go back to the basics this Sunday, letting their ground game and defense do the heavy lifting. Jacksonville is dealing with key injuries in its secondary that just might open the door for Flacco and the Browns passing attack to produce just enough big plays to finish the job. Take Cleveland (8*).

My selection is on Carolina plus the points over New Orleans at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Panthers are playing with absolutely nothing to lose down the stretch. Frank Reich was already fired. Most have already given up on QB Bryce Young, at least in his rookie season. They're coming off five consecutive losses, having gone 1-3-1 ATS over that stretch. I think they rise to the occasion in this revenge spot, however, noting that the Panthers are a long-term 41-23 ATS when seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent, as is the case here. The Saints are a miserable 1-8 ATS as a favorite this season. I simply feel they're regressed into a team that simply isn't built for the fast track at the Superdome. Note that New Orleans is 6-16 ATS in its last 22 games played indoors, including an ugly 1-7 ATS mark this season. The Saints check in having allowed 100+ rushing yards in seven straight games and I think that opens the door for the Panthers to effectively shorten proceedings on Sunday, and stay inside the lofty pointspread. Take Carolina (8*).

My selection is on Pittsburgh minus the points over New England at 8:15 pm et on Thursday.

Talk about an ugly Thursday night matchup but we can only bet what's in front of us and I like the way this one sets up for the Steelers. Pittsburgh dropped a lopsided decision against the Cardinals at home last Sunday. Some were stunned by that defeat. I wasn't. The Cardinals actually have a lot going for them right now - the same can't be said for Bill Bellichick's Patriots. The Pats are essentially jockeying for draft positioning at this point and in pretty good shape in that regard. Rhamondre Stevenson's presence was one of the only things that would have led me to believe New England could stay competitive in this game but now he's sidelined as well. For the Steelers, we'll see Mitchell Trubisky under center. That's a drop-off from Kenny Pickett to be sure, but not an insurmountable one. The Steelers will once again lean on their ground game and defense to win this game anyway. Note that Pittsburgh has yet to lose consecutive games SU or ATS this season. They'll avoid that fate here as well. Take Pittsburgh (8*).

My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over Green Bay at 8:20 pm et on Sunday.

The Packers caught the Lions flat-footed on Thanksgiving Day. It almost seemed as if Detroit thought Green Bay would simply roll over but that was far from the case. Here, I expect the Chiefs to be business-like in their approach once again, noting they're a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last seven road games against non-conference opponents. As expected we heard plenty of 'what's wrong with the Chiefs?' whispers following their 21-17 home loss to the Eagles on MNF a couple of weeks ago. After a sluggish start in Las Vegas last Sunday, Kansas City eventually rolled to a two-touchdown victory. I expect plenty of carry-over from that flawless second half performance on Sunday night in Green Bay. This is another 'get right' spot against a Packers squad that just isn't as good as it looked in posting consecutive wins over the last two weeks. Take Kansas City (8*).

My selection is on Cleveland plus the points over Los Angeles at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

I'm not ready to write off the Browns just yet. Yes, they're coming off a disheartening loss to the Broncos in Denver last Sunday in a game that completely got away from them. I fully expect them to bounce back this week as they stay on the road to face the Rams, who are in a fairly obvious letdown spot off consecutive wins, including a blowout victory in Arizona last week. Are the Rams as good as they looked against the Cardinals? Probably not. Are the Browns as bad as they appeared against the Broncos? Certainly not. Keep in mind, prior to that loss in Denver, Cleveland had reeled off three consecutive wins SU and four in a row ATS. Yes, the Browns offense remains extremely limited but I think their defense can do a lot of the heavy lifting on Sunday, ultimately creating enough splash plays to give their offense some short fields to work with. Note that the Rams are a woeful 3-10 in their last 13 home games as a favorite of seven points or less. Meanwhile, Cleveland is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games against NFC opponents and 6-3 ATS in its last nine contests as an underdog priced between +3.5 and +9.5 points, as is the case at the time of writing. Take Cleveland (8*).

NFC South Game of the Year. My selection is on Carolina plus the points over Tampa Bay at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

I really like the way this spot sets up for the visiting Panthers as they look to come away with something positive after firing head coach Frank Reich. Carolina has appeared lifeless this season, winning just once in 11 games. Needless to say, when a head coach gets fired, the players tend to take it upon themselves to show up and show out the next week. Tampa Bay had its four-game ATS winning streak snapped with a 27-20 loss at Indianapolis last Sunday. The once-stout Bucs defense has now allowed 24 points or more in four of its last five contests. Note that Tampa Bay is a miserable 7-20 ATS in its last 27 games following consecutive road defeats while Carolina is a long-term 142-117 ATS in an underdog role. We've seen an incredible 12 straight meetings in this series decided by more than a field goal but I think there's a good chance that this one goes down to the wire on Sunday. Take Carolina (10*).

My selection is on Arizona plus the points over Pittsburgh at 1 pm et on Sunday.

I'm just not ready to buy in to the Steelers being installed as considerable favorites against any opponent, let alone a Cardinals squad that's fresh off an embarrassing 37-14 rout at the hands of the division rival Rams last week. Arizona has now dropped back-to-back games but is still 3-2 ATS over its last five contests. The Steelers picked up a massive come-from-behind win in Cincinnati last Sunday but let's not start planning the parade just yet. That came against a Joe Burrow-less Bengals squad. Note that Arizona is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games when priced as a road underdog of between 3.5 and 7 points, actually outscoring opponents by an average margin of 3.6 points in that situation. I think the pacific time zone team playing an early game in the east angle is overblown and will grab all the points I can get with the Cards on Sunday. Take Arizona (8*).

NFC Game of the Week. My selection is on Seattle plus the points over Dallas at 8:15 pm et on Thursday.

The Cowboys have rattled off three straight wins, both SU and ATS, but those came against three of football's worst teams in the Giants, Panthers and Commanders. While the Seahawks are reeling off back-to-back losses, they're still 6-5 on the season and I expect them to give the Cowboys all they can handle on Thursday night. Seattle ran into an incredibly difficult matchup last week, playing with a number of key contributors banged-up on a short week against the red hot 49ers. I do think the extra couple of days off will help the Seahawks here. Note that Dallas is a long-term 17-38 ATS when coming off five or six ATS wins in its last seven games, as is the case here. It is also 7-19 ATS in its last 26 games following a win by 28 points or more and 14-28 ATS in its last 42 contests following a home victory by 21 points or more. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are a long-term 59-35 ATS when coming off consecutive losses and 43-22 ATS in their last 65 games after scoring 17 points or less in back-to-back games. Regardless what has separated these two NFC foes over the years, the Seahawks have stayed competitive. You would have to go back eight meetings, all the way to 2011, to find the last time Dallas defeated Seattle by more than seven points. The underdog has gone 5-2 ATS in the last seven matchups in this series. Take Seattle (10*).

My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over Las Vegas at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

With whispers of 'what's wrong with the Chiefs' swirling following Monday's loss to the Eagles - their second defeat in their last three games - we'll confidently back Kansas City to rebound against the division rival Raiders on Sunday afternoon. The Chiefs ran into an elite opponent on Monday and paid the price for their mistakes in a 21-17 defeat. Yes, Kansas City's offense has sputtered but I see this as a 'get right' spot against the Raiders on Sunday. The Chiefs should be happy to see the black and silver on the other side of the field as they've scored 40, 32, 35, 41, 48, 30 and 31 points in the last seven meetings in this series. Las Vegas has performed admirably for rookie head coach Antonio Pierce but I'm also not sure that they've taken any opponent's best punch. They're likely to get just that here as Kansas City aims to rebound. Note that the Raiders are a woeful 8-23 ATS in their last 31 games following three straight ATS victories, as is the case here. Take Kansas City (8*).

My selection is on Houston plus the points over Jacksonville at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Jaguars rarely beat the Texans. They did blow out an awful Houston team last January but that marked their only victory in the last 11 meetings in this series. Earlier this season, the Texans went into Jacksonville and pounded the Jags 37-17. I see little reason why this ascending Texans squad can't deliver another win on Sunday. Despite failing to cover the spread in last week's 21-16 win over the Cardinals, I came away impressed by Houston once again. The Texans were in a prime letdown spot in that contest, fresh off a big upset win over the Bengals in Cincinnati the week previous. If it weren't for them shooting themselves in the foot with turnovers deep in Cardinals territory that result would have been far more lopsided. Jacksonville predictably rebounded from an embarrassing 34-3 rout at the hands of the 49ers the week previous by shredding the reeling Titans last Sunday. Note that the Jags are a long-term 10-27 ATS when coming off a game in which they outgained the opposition by 150 or more total yards, as is the case here. Take Houston (8*).

Game of the Week. My selection is on Pittsburgh minus the points over Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Steelers dropped a heart-breaker in Cleveland last week and proceeded to fire offensive coordinator Matt Canada in a move that was a long-time coming in the eyes of most. Here, I look for Pittsburgh to take full advantage of a Joe Burrow-less Bengals squad that enters this game reeling off back-to-back losses. It's been a lost season for Cincinnati by most accounts. It started the campaign with consecutive losses (and went 0-3-1 ATS in its first four games) with Joe Burrow hobbled with a calf injury. There was a brief resurgence once Burrow got healthy but now he's out for the season, leaving undrafted backup QB Jake Browning to run the offense. That spells trouble against a ferocious Steelers defense that has proven it can win games all on its own this season. Pittsburgh has a new offensive coordinator but won't put too much on the offense in this particular game as it is well-positioned to win ugly. Notably, the Steelers have owned this series in Cincinnati over the years and even when they've fielded weaker teams, they've still managed to split the last four meetings in this stadium. Take Pittsburgh (10*).

NFC East Game of the Year. My selection is on Washington plus the points over Dallas at 4:30 pm et on Thursday.

The Cowboys enter this Thanksgiving Day divisional matchup with the Commanders riding a season-long two-game SU and ATS winning streak - that's right, season-long. As well as Dallas has played, consistency hasn't really been its calling card. The same goes for Washington and QB Sam Howell in particular. Howell is coming off a dreadful performance against the lowly Giants last Sunday, at home no less. The Commanders were upstaged by New York third-string QB Tommy DeVito, turning the football over a whopping six times in a 31-19 defeat. I do look for Washington to bounce back with a much sharper performance here, noting that it is a long-term 35-19 ATS when playing on the road after losing five or six of its last seven games, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of just 2.3 points in that situation. The Cowboys are a woeful 16-38 ATS in their last 54 contests after winning five or six of their last seven games ATS, which is also the situation here, outscoring foes by only 2.6 points on average in that spot. Take Washington (10*).

My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over Kansas City at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

This is a rematch of last February's Super Bowl - a game where the Eagles were favored but ultimately fell by a score of 38-35. Revenge is of course a factor on Monday, but it's not really what this play is all about. I simply feel the Eagles are the superior team and suspect we'll be hearing whispers of 'what's wrong with the Chiefs?' throughout the week before they almost certainly 'get right' with a two-game road jaunt to Las Vegas and Green Bay. The bye week came at the right time for the Eagles as it gave QB Jalen Hurts a chance to rest his ailing knee. The Philadelphia defense also comes out of the bye arguably as healthy as it has been all season. The Eagles have been a curious study on defense this year as they've dared teams to beat them through the air, all but stamping out opposing ground games entirely. Here, the Chiefs will likely get their yardage through the air but I question how many drives they can end with 7's rather than 3's. It's worth noting that Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes has thrown just 17 touchdown passes through nine games this season - a far cry from the 41 he amassed last season. While Chiefs head coach Andy Reid's post-bye week success has been well-documented, I expect his spectacular record in that situation to be put to the test here. Take Philadelphia (8*).

My selection is on Seattle plus the points over Los Angeles at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

The revenge-minded Seahawks will look to clean things up after a shaky but victorious performance at home against the Commanders last week. You may remember the Rams dominated the Seahawks in Seattle back in Week 1. They're unlikely to catch Seattle flat-footed again here, however. The Rams have appeared in complete disarray during their current three-game SU and ATS slide and I'm not convinced their bye week will help them out in any way. The Seahawks would be well-advised to take advantage of this winnable matchup as their schedule is about to get a whole lot tougher with their next four games coming at home against the 49ers (on Thanksgiving), at the Cowboys, at the 49ers and at home against the Eagles. Take Seattle (8*).

My selection is on Carolina plus the points over Dallas at 1 pm et on Sunday.

As difficult as it is to do, we'll fade the Cowboys off their 49-point explosion against the hapless Giants last week. The Panthers have just one victory both SU and ATS this season, that coming on October 29th against the upstart Texans. Note that while they're 1-3 at home this season, only one of those losses came by more than eight points. Meanwhile, the Cowboys check in 2-3 SU on the road this season with their lone win by more than three points coming way back in their Week 1 rout of the Giants. Note that Dallas is 2-13 ATS in its last 15 road games following an ATS win as a double-digit favorite, as is the case here. The Panthers are 23-10 ATS in their last 33 home games after scoring 17 points or less in consecutive games, which is also the situation on Sunday. Take Carolina (8*).

Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Arizona plus the points over Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday.

I really like the setup for the underdog Cardinals here as they look rejuvenated with QB Kyler Murray back at the helm and catch the Texans in a massive letdown spot off last Sunday's stunning road win in Cincinnati. Arizona has proven to be a 'tough out' under rookie head coach Jonathan Gannon this season and last week's offensive breakout led by Murray and fast-emerging TE Trey McBride has it brimming with confidence heading into this 'spoiler' spot against the upstart Texans. Houston has been involved in three straight barn-burners - all decided by three points or less. While this team may never' hit the wall in their first season under the guidance of head coach DeMeco Ryans, I do think they get tripped up at some point during this three-game homestand, noting they've yet to notch more than two victories in a row this season. Arizona checks in 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games as a road underdog of seven points or less while Houston is 21-38 ATS in its last 59 contests following an upset victory. Take Arizona (10*).

AFC North Game of the Month. My selection is on Cleveland minus the points over Pittsburgh at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Browns have undoubtedly had this game circled on their calendar since the Steelers stunned them in a 26-22 victory in Pittsburgh on September 18th. The Steelers gained only 255 total yards in that game but turnovers were the story. The Browns have now lost QB Deshaun Watson to a season-ending injury but I don't expect them to fold the tent as a result. Everything is still in front of Cleveland after last week's upset win in Baltimore as it sits at 6-3 on the season in a crowded AFC North. This is a key spot with a sneaky-difficult two-game road jaunt to Denver and Los Angeles (vs. the Rams) on deck. Take Cleveland (10*).

TNF Game of the Month. My selection is on Cincinnati plus the points over Baltimore at 8:15 pm et on Thursday.

I can't help but feel the Bengals got caught overlooking the upstart Texans last Sunday, as many other teams have, or almost have this season. That loss snapped Cincinnati's four-game winning streak and put it in tough position here as it needs a win to avoid following three wins behind Baltimore in the AFC North standings. I do think the Bengals are one of those teams where the 'revenge' angle matters. We saw it in play to a certain extent a few weeks ago as Cincinnati went on the road and defeated San Francisco (after dropping a heartbreaker against the Niners at home in Joe Burrow's rookie season two years ago). Here, the Bengals will be looking to avenge an earlier 27-24 home loss against the Ravens, when Joe Burrow clearly wasn't right dealing with a calf injury earlier in the campaign. Baltimore also got caught overlooking its opponent last Sunday as it dropped a last-second decision against the division-rival Browns. While I don't believe the Ravens are as bad as they looked in the second half of that game, I also don't think they're as invincible as they appeared during their recent four-game winning streak. Home team has meant plenty in this series with the hosts winning four of the last five matchups. With that being said, you would have to go back three meetings here in Baltimore to find the last time the Ravens defeated the Bengals by more than two points. Take Cincinnati (10*).

My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over Denver at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

The Bills have now dropped the cash in five straight games after last week's 24-18 setback in Cincinnati. While their offense bogged down in that game, their banged-up defense actually held up well against an elite offense. If there's one thing the Broncos have done well lately it's run the football but Buffalo has actually done a tremendous job of snuffing out opposing ground attacks over its last three contests, yielding just 3.6 yards per rush. Denver, on the other hand, has been torched on the ground, allowing a ridiculous 6.1 yards per rush on the road this season. If the Bills can get their ground game going early on Monday, it could be lights out in a hurry as Josh Allen draws a smash spot against the Broncos 'one-trick pony' pass defense here. Buffalo desperately needs to take advantage of this two-game homestand that also includes a date with the Jets next week before a brutal stretch that includes road games against the Eagles, Chiefs and Chargers and a home contest against the Cowboys. Take Buffalo (8*).

NFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Seattle minus the points over Washington at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

I generally look to fade the Commanders off a win at the best of times but here we have their opponent in a smash spot as well as the Seahawks return home following a lifeless performance in Baltimore last week. Washington has relied heavily on dual-threat QB Sam Howell to keep its offense afloat without a ground game to speak of this season. That spells trouble in situations such as this, however, where the Commanders are likely to be playing from behind. Seattle has struggled to lift the lid off its offense in recent weeks after showing so much promise early in the campaign (it scored exactly 37 points in consecutive games against Detroit and Carolina in September). This looks like a potential breakout spot against a Washington squad that has already allowed 30+ points on five different occasions this season and certainly didn't get any better defensively but cutting ties with pass-rush specialists Montez Sweat and Chase Young. Note that Washington is averaging a woeful 14.5 points per game the last six times it has come off an upset win on the road, as is the case here. Take Seattle (10*).

My selection is on Detroit minus the points over Los Angeles at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

The Chargers have taken full advantage of back-to-back favorable primetime matchups against the Bears and Jets but now take a big step up in class as they host the rested Lions on Sunday afternoon. Detroit is coming off its bye week which gave it the opportunity to get healthy on offense with RB David Montgomery, LG Jonah Jackson and C Frank Ragnow set to return. That's positive news for QB Jared Goff, especially when you consider Montgomery can not only produce yards on the ground and through the air but is also one of the league's best blocking backs. The Chargers offense is predicated on balance which doesn't bode particularly well here with the Lions allowing just 3.7 yards per rush this season. Only one of Detroit's eight opponents has managed to rush for 100 or more yards this season. With eight of the Lions last nine games coming indoors, they're well-positioned to take flight and I think it all starts with this road tilt on Sunday. Take Detroit (8*).

My selection is on New York plus the points over Los Angeles at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

I'll take my chances grabbing the points with the Jets in what projects as a relatively low-scoring affair on Monday night in New Jersey. Note that these two teams were involved in a high-scoring shootout the last time they met in 2020. On that day, the Jets nearly staged a massive upset (as 10-point underdogs) on the road, with Joe Flacco starting at quarterback, despite Chargers QB Justin Herbert completing 37-of-49 passes for 347 yards (Los Angeles won by only six points). We've already seen the Jets employ smart strategies in similarly tough home matchups this season, holding the likes of Buffalo and Philadelphia to just 16 and 14 points in a pair of upset victories. Jets QB Zach Wilson is likely to be under duress all night long but I have confidence in RB Breece Hall and WR Garrett Wilson's ability to come up with enough big plays to keep the Chargers defense honest. Los Angeles hasn't been able to find a consistent ground attack this season, making it unlikely it will be able to 'take the air out of the football' should it build a lead in this contest. The Jets have done a tremendous job of stamping out opposing passing games, allowing 268 passing yards or less in all seven games to date. Take New York (8*).

My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Dallas at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

The Cowboys seem to generally have a small margin for error when they step up in class for games such as this one, particularly on the road. They turned in a near-perfect performance at home against the Rams last Sunday, particularly on the defensive side of the football, yet still only forced one turnover. The 'well has run dry' so to speak in that department as they've failed to force more than a single turnover in any of their last three games - something I do think they'll need to do in order to reach the win column on Sunday. While something like turnovers isn't really predictable, I do think we can count on the Eagles to put a supreme focus on taking care of the football on Sunday after they coughed it up a whopping eight times over the last three games (they still won two of those three contests). The Cowboys check in a woeful 13-27 ATS in their last 40 games after recording a home win by 21 points or more. Worse still, they're a long-term 16-37 ATS after delivering five or six ATS wins in their last seven games, which is also the situation here (5-2 ATS this season). The Eagles are 8-1 ATS in their last nine contests as a home favorite of a touchdown or less, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 11.1 points. Meanwhile, the home team has gone 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings in this series with the lone road cover over that stretch coming by way of Dallas in a regular season finale where it was favored by 6.5 points in 2022 (Gardner Minshew started that game for Philadelphia). Take Philadelphia (8*).

My selection is on Seattle minus the points over Cleveland at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

Really tough spot for the Browns here after they 'left it all on the field' in last week's wild, high-scoring win in Indianapolis. The Seahawks had what amounted to a scrimmage at home against the Cardinals and should be no worse for wear entering this game. In fact, Seattle is expected to be stronger with WR D.K. Metcalf likely to return. The Browns lost key backup RB Jerome Ford last week so it's the Kareem Hunt show this Sunday. That's not to mention the fact that QB P.J. Walker with his pop-gun arm will remain under center against a ball-hawking Seahawks secondary. Take Seattle (8*).

My selection is on Dallas minus the points over Los Angeles at 1 pm et on Sunday.

I think the Cowboys are in a smash spot here at home on Sunday as they host a Rams squad that feels it was wronged in last week's home defeat against the Steelers. Dallas checks in off its bye week following an uplifting 20-17 road win over the Chargers. While the Cowboys are dealing with some key injuries on the defensive side of the football, I'm confident we'll see their offense feast on Sunday. One of the Rams bright spots this season was RB Kyren Williams but he's now sidelined. While the Los Angeles aerial attack does boast a terrific 1-2 punch in Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, I'm willing to bet on the Cowboys secondary (and pass rush) to neutralize the Rams offense this week. Dallas allowed a season-high 22 pass completions in its most recent game against the Chargers but still gave up only 219 passing yards. It's all systems go for the Cowboys offense this Sunday and the Rams defense is no longer a unit to fear. Last year, Dallas took this same matchup by 12 points with Cooper Rush at quarterback. While the Cowboys are in a look-ahead spot with the Eagles on deck, that's not an angle I generally put much stock in. Take Dallas (8*).

My selection is on Carolina plus the points over Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Panthers bye week couldn't have come at a better time as they were 0-6 to start the season and have had a chance to regroup ahead of this matchup with the upstart Texans. I don't think there's much at all separating these two teams but here we are catching north of a field goal with the Panthers, at home no less. Houston has reeled off three wins in its last four games, going a perfect 4-0 ATS along the way. Like the Panthers, the Texans are also coming off their bye week but the difference is it came at a bad time as they were rolling heading in. It's not often you see a team deliver consecutive ATS wins in games where it scored 20 points or less but that's the case with Houston entering this contest. Carolina has faced a brutal schedule since Week 3, travelling to Seattle before hosting winless (at the time) Minnesota and then hitting the road to face the Lions and Dolphins, two teams that are likely to reach the postseason. Noting that Houston is a long-term 21-37 ATS off an outright underdog victory, look for Carolina to prevail on Sunday. Take Carolina (8*).

My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Miami at 8:20 pm et on Sunday.

The Eagles bandwagon was effectively cleared following last Sunday's upset loss against the Jets. Here, I'm confident we'll see Philadelphia bounce back against the red hot Dolphins. Miami looks unstoppable on offense but its defense remains vulnerable. The Fins were fortunate to face two punch-drunk offenses in the Giants and Panthers over the last two weeks. They'll face a much different animal this week as the Eagles return home in a foul mood after being perplexed by the Jets defense last Sunday. Philadelphia still has an elite offense while its defense can hold serve just enough to ultimately extend the margin against Miami. Note that the Eagles are 45-24 ATS in their last 69 home games after losing two of their last three contests ATS, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 5.0 points in that situation. Take Philadelphia (8*).

AFC West Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Kansas City at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

With the Chargers low-scoring defeat at home against the Cowboys on Monday night fresh in our mind, we'll back Los Angeles as it heads out on the road on a short week to face the mighty Chiefs. Kansas City rode three turnovers to a 19-8 victory over the Broncos a week ago Thursday night. Note that the Chargers have only turned the football three times all season. While Los Angeles has lost three straight matchups in this series, all three defeats came by less than one score. The Chargers have long been successful in road games, going 145-107 ATS in their last 252 games played away from home. Meanwhile, the Chiefs are a miserable 0-8 ATS in their last eight games following a double-digit victory, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of only 2.5 points in that situation. Despite their 2-3 record, the Chargers do a lot of things well and I expect them to give the Chiefs all they can handle on Sunday afternoon. Take Los Angeles (10*).

My selection is on Baltimore minus the points over Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Lions are rolling off four straight wins but I look for that streak to grind to a halt on Sunday in Baltimore. Detroit will be without RB David Montgomery for this game and that's a key development as he's one of the best blocking backs in football in addition to his production on the ground. Head coach Dan Campbell has indicated that rookie RB Jahmyr Gibbs will have a full workload but I expect him to struggle in multiple facets here. Detroit has had a difficult time defending opposing tight ends which sets this up as a smash spot for Ravens TE Mark Andrews. Note that the home team has gone 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in this series. The Lions are a woeful 7-24 ATS in their last 31 road games after covering the spread in four or five of their last six contests, as is the case here. Take Baltimore (8*).

My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Las Vegas at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The betting market seems spooked by the presence of former Division-II quarterback Tyson Bagent making his first career start for the Bears. Keep in mind, Bagent turned in an impressive preseason campaign, winning the backup QB job. We'll gladly fade the Raiders as a road favorite as they look to string together a third straight victory. Neither of their last two wins were particularly impressive as they slipped past the Packers and Patriots at home. Those wins had more to do with the ineffectiveness of their opposition than their own sharp play. Note that Las Vegas has yet to score more than 21 points in a game this season, nor has it rushed for 100 or more yards. The only other time we saw it travel for an early kickoff it fell by a 38-10 score in Buffalo. The Bears are not the Bills but I expect them to give the Raiders plenty of trouble in the Windy City on Sunday. Las Vegas has dropped the cash in six straight games as a road favorite. Take Chicago (8*).

NFC East Game of the Month. My selection is on New York plus the points over Washington at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Giants let the Bills off the hook last Sunday night, plain and simple. A massive upset win was there for the taking and New York let it slip away. With that being said, the G-Men have to be feeling as good about themselves as they have all season entering this division matchup against the Commanders. Washington picked up a road win in Atlanta last Sunday despite gaining fewer than 200 total yards. The Commanders will have three two-game road swings this season and I don't expect them to sweep any of them. Whether it's Tyrod Taylor or Daniel Jones under center for the Giants, I expect solid production from the quarterback position on Sunday. RB Saquon Barkley looked no worse for wear following his high ankle sprain last week as he returned and turned in a productive performance against the Bills. The Giants will be taking a step down in class in all facets against Washington and I expect them to take advantage of this rare opportunity to pick up a victory. Take New York (10*).

Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over New York at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

The Eagles are cruising along a little bit, dare I say, beneath the radar at 5-0 on the season. Philadelphia will again try to string together an ATS winning streak for the first time this season as it heads to the Meadowlands to face the Jets on Sunday. I like the way this matchup sets up for Philadelphia. Yes, the Jets possess a talented defense. Yet the reality is they're still giving up plenty to opposing passing games, as we saw in last week's relatively high-scoring affair in Denver, and are sorely missing Sauce Gardner's running mate at corner in D.J. Reed. The Eagles offense hasn't always looked dominant this season but I think this matchup favors them immensely. While Philadelphia will be forced to go without CB Darius Slay and DT Jalen Carter among others, it is also expected to get back LB Nakobe Dean. The Jets offense isn't all that difficult to gameplan for. The Eagles will need to key on RB Breece Hall and WR Garrett Wilson. There's no question QB Zach Wilson's presence continues to keep New York's offensive ceiling relatively low. I certainly don't expect Breece Hall to slice and dice through the Eagles defense the way he did against the Broncos sieve-like defensive front last Sunday. Take Philadelphia (10*).

My selection is on Carolina plus the points over Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Panthers check into this road tilt sporting an 0-4 record with QB Bryce Young struggling in his rookie campaign. I think Carolina's offense can get going a little bit in favorable conditions indoors in Detroit on Sunday while we'll gladly fade the Lions coming off consecutive double-digit victories. The Packers didn't look ready for the Lions at all in last week's matchup and Detroit ultimately rolled to a 14-point victory. While Detroit is now 3-1 on the season, it's worth noting that it has gone a long-term 22-42 ATS when coming off three victories in its last four games, outscored by an average margin of 3.7 points in that situation. The Panthers on the other hand have been outscored by a minuscule average margin of 0.8 points the last 66 times they've come off three ATS defeats in their last four contests, as is the case here. These two teams just met last Christmas Eve with the Panthers prevailing by a decisive 37-23 margin. For whatever reason, Carolina seems to match up well with Detroit, taking three of four matchups since 2017 with its lone loss over that stretch coming by a single point here in the Motor City in 2018. Take Carolina (8*).

Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta minus the points over Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Falcons have to be disappointed with their 2-2 start after starting the season by reeling off consecutive victories. They were hampered by more mistakes from QB Desmond Ridder last Sunday in London, dropping a lopsided decision against Jacksonville. I do expect them to 'get right' back at home on Sunday as they host the upstart Texans. Houston started the campaign with back-to-back losses but has since evened its record at 2-2 thanks to upset wins over the Jaguars and Steelers. I simply feel it is going to have a difficult time moving the football, let alone scoring against an underrated Falcons defense this week. Consider this Texans QB C.J. Stroud's 'welcome to the NFL' moment as he gets checked by Atlanta after turning heads over the last two games. Falcons fans have been calling for backup QB Taylor Heinicke to take over under center but I expect him to be stuck warming the bench for at least one more week. Too much Bijan Robinson and too much Atlanta defense in this spot. Take Atlanta (10*).

AFC South Game of the Month. My selection is on Tennessee minus the points over Indianapolis at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Titans have owned the Colts lately taking five straight meetings in this series and I don't think that winning streak will be in jeopardy on Sunday afternoon in Indianapolis. While the case can be made that Tennessee is ripe for a letdown off last week's dismantling of Cincinnati at home, I think it's more likely we finally see some consistency from Mike Vrable's squad. The Colts defensive warts finally showed in last week's 29-23 overtime loss against the Rams. That game wasn't close for the first half before Indianapolis staged a furious second half rally. Colts QB Anthony Richardson is the real deal but he doesn't have many weapons at his disposal just yet. RB Jonathan Taylor is expected to make his season debut on Sunday but he'll likely be on a 'pitch count'. Yeah, this is a team with a lot of 'but's' at this point. The Titans run defense has been incredibly stingy, limiting opponents to just 2.9 yards per rush this season. On the flip side, Tennessee's vaunted ground attack should feast with help on the way on the offensive line in the form of Peter Skoronski and Nicholas Petit-Frere. Take Tennessee (10*).

NFC Game of the Week. My selection is on Seattle minus the points over New York at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

I know the case can be made to back a desperate Giants squad as they return home licking their wounds following a dismantling at the hands of the mighty 49ers last week. After all, New York has had a couple of extra days of preparation and also has the 'revenge' angle working its favor after dropping a 27-13 decision in Seattle last year. I'm not ready to buy in, however. New York will be without RB Saquon Barkley. He obviously means a lot to the Giants offense but not just for his running and catching ability but also as a pass blocker. In fact, Barkley ranked tops among all running backs in pass-blocking grade according to Pro Football Focus last season. Without Barkley, the Giants will have a tough time staying ahead of the chains and ultimately chewing clock in an effort to effectively shorten proceedings on Monday. The Seahawks got off to a tough start this season with a blowout loss at home against the Rams. Of course, the Rams have turned out to be a more competitive team than most expected. Since then, Seattle has reeled off consecutive wins over the Lions and Panthers. Now it will look to keep it rolling as Geno Smith sets up in a 'revenge' spot of his own in his old stomping grounds at Met Life Stadium. There's a lot to like about the Seahawks on both sides of the football, and it sounds like they'll be getting some key pieces back healthy on the defensive side of the football this week. Take Seattle (10*).

My selection is on San Francisco minus the points over Arizona at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

The Cardinals have been front-running throughout the majority of their first three games this season, unbelievably so. We haven't really seen how they operate when playing from behind but we're likely to see that on Sunday in Santa Clara and the results likely won't be pretty. We haven't seen the 49ers as healthy as they've been this season in a long time. The results have been staggering as they've outscored the opposition by a combined 90-42 margin through their first three contests. While this pointspread may seem lofty at first glance, keep in mind, the Niners have gone an incredible 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 16.6 points in that situation. Last year this matchup was no contest with San Francisco winning by 28 and 25 points. Take San Francisco (8*).

My selection is on Las Vegas plus the points over Los Angeles at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

Everyone is down on the Raiders right now. Perhaps for good reason. With that being said, I'm not ready to buy in to the Chargers, not after they earned just their first win in three tries this season last week in Minnesota. Las Vegas won't have the services of QB Jimmy Garoppolo for this game. Are Brian Hoyer or Aidan O'Connell really a considerable downgrade? This game should be all about pounding away with RB Josh Jacobs anyway (the Chargers are giving up 4.4 yards per rush), perhaps with some splash plays mixed in to WR Davante Adams. The Chargers lost WR Mike Williams in last week's victory in Minnesota and will likely be without RB Austin Ekeler once again here as well. Of course those injuries have been factored into this line. However, I think the Raiders are being knocked for being away from home, yet they have little to no home field advantage to begin with (nor do the Chargers). Note that Los Angeles has averaged a woeful 18.6 points and has been outscored by an average margin of 3.8 points when coming off a win by six points or less over the last 2+ seasons (that situation has come up 12 times over that stretch). The Chargers will be looking for revenge here after dropping the most recent meeting between these two teams last December but I think that angle is overplayed in this particular matchup. The last seven times Los Angeles has sought revenge in this series it has lost by three, lost by three, lost by three, won by one, lost by seven, lost by five and won by five. Take Las Vegas (8*).

AFC North Game of the Year. My selection is on Baltimore plus the points over Cleveland at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Ravens are coming off an embarrassing showing at home against the Colts last Sunday. The sky is not falling in Baltimore though as the Ravens remain 2-1 to start the season, good enough for a tie for top spot in the AFC North. Here, Baltimore has an opportunity to make a statement on the road against a Browns squad that is off to a perfect 2-0 start at home. The Ravens last played here last December and were unable to complete the season sweep, dropping an ugly 13-3 decision. It's worth noting that Cleveland hasn't won consecutive matchups in this series since way back in 2007. I like the notion of Todd Monken drawing up a far more effective offensive gameplan for Lamar Jackson and the Ravens after last week's debacle against the Colts. He'll certainly need to do that given how stout the Browns have been on defense so far this season. I'm not particularly high on Cleveland's offense, certainly without RB Nick Chubb. Chubb's absence wasn't really felt last Sunday as the Browns were able to control proceedings from the get-go against the Titans. This week, Chubb will be missed. Note that the Ravens have held up tremendously well in pass defense this season, allowing just 4.7 yards per pass attempt. Needless to say, Deshaun Watson doesn't instill a great deal of confidence as a passer right now. The Ravens check in a long-term 36-18 ATS as a road underdog of a field goal or less, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 2.9 points along the way while the Browns are a miserable 12-28 ATS in their last 40 games after a win by 14+ points, outscored by 6.5 points on average in that spot. Take Baltimore (10*).

My selection is on Jacksonville minus the points over Atlanta at 9:30 am et on Sunday.

The Jaguars got stomped at home against the Texans last Sunday. I'm not sure that result was as unexpected as most believe as Houston has owned that series and the Jags have traditionally struggled in the role of home favorite. Here, I look for Jacksonville to bounce back as it faces Atlanta in London. The Falcons stumbled to their first loss of the young season in Detroit last Sunday as they couldn't get anything going offensively. I'm not convinced Atlanta QB Desmond Ridder is long for the starting job and the Lions laid out a pretty good blueprint for shutting down the Falcons offense - one that the Jags are capable of replicating on Sunday. Jacksonville's offense is far better than it showed last Sunday. Keep in mind, even on a bad day it still racked up over 400 total yards with two turnovers playing a factor. The game has come easy for Falcons rookie RB Bijan Robinson so far but he'll run into a Jags defense that has yielded just 3.4 yards per rush this season. While motivation rarely plays a quantifiable role in the end result when it comes to the NFL, the Jags can ill afford to drop another game here, noting that they'll face the Bills next. Atlanta gets three straight winnable games next, hosting Houston and Washington before travelling to face Tampa Bay. Take Jacksonville (8*).

TNF Game of the Month. My selection is on Green Bay plus the points over Detroit at 8:15 pm et on Thursday.

Both of these teams are off to solid 2-1 starts to the season. That was expected of the Lions, even if their path to get there has been a little surprising. Few gave the Packers much of a chance as they began the post-Aaron Rodgers era. However, Green Bay has proven to be the very definition of a 'tough out' and I think that will prove to be the case again on Thursday. The Packers find themselves in a rare 'triple revenge' spot in this series having dropped the last three matchups going back to early 2022. They actually did a tremendous job of containing a terrific Lions offense in last season's two meetings, allowing a grand total of 35 points and holding WR Amon-Ra St-Brown to just 104 scoreless yards. While most consider Jordan Love a considerable downgrade from Aaron Rodgers, he won't have too high of expectations thrown his way after Rodgers threw just two touchdown passes and four interceptions against Detroit last season. Love is expected to get some help this week with the return of RB Aaron Jones and the season debut of WR Christian Watson. I expect both to make an impact. Defensively, the Packers have some work to do at the back-end, especially if Jaire Alexander is forced to miss his second straight game. The good news is, the Lions offense hasn't been quite the same on the road, with Jared Goff looking like a completely different quarterback away from the friendly confines of Ford Field. Green Bay pass rush specialist Rashan Gary has looked like a man on a mission after last year's devastating ACL injury and is a true game-wrecker on the line. Here, we'll note that the Lions are a long-term 12-30 ATS when priced as a road favorite of less than a touchdown, outscored by an average margin of 2.3 points in that situation. Meanwhile, the Packers are a long-term 108-79 when playing at home on six days or less rest, outscoring the opposition by 8.2 points on average and a terrific 11-2 ATS in an underdog role over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.3 points in that spot. Take Green Bay (10*).

My selection is on Cincinnati minus the points over Los Angeles at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

Everyone is ready to write off the Bengals following an ugly 0-2 start and now with QB Joe Burrow likely to miss Monday's showdown with the Rams. I actually think this is an excellent opportunity for Cincinnati to silence its critics and get its season turned around against a very beatable opponent. The Rams have been cooked by opposing ground attacks through the first two games this season, allowing north of 5.0 yards per rush. The Bengals are well-positioned to attack Los Angeles on the ground with RB Joe Mixon, especially if Burrow can't suit up. Backup QB Jake Browning has flashed at times in the preseason, particularly with his mobility. The Rams have Aaron Donald on defense much not much else. While WR Puka Nacua has stole the show through two games, I don't think we're seeing much more than the ghost of Matthew Stafford at quarterback. Expect the Bengals to make a statement. Take Cincinnati (8*).

My selection is on Dallas minus the points over Arizona at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

This is an absolute walk for the Cowboys as they look to build off of consecutive blowout wins over the Giants and Jets with another lopsided victory over the Cardinals on Sunday. Dallas did lose standout CB Trevon Diggs to a season-ending ACL earlier this week but that's of little consequence in this particular matchup. The Cowboys figure to do whatever they want offensively in this game against a depleted Cardinals defense that folded the tent in the second half against the Giants lukewarm offense last Sunday. Meanwhile, even without Diggs, the Dallas defense figures to make life miserable for the Arizona offense here. The Cowboys have absolutely stymied opposing ground attacks in the early going this season and that should leave Cards QB Joshua Dobbs on an island for much of the afternoon on Sunday. This a 'name your score' type of game for Dallas and the end result shouldn't be pretty for Arizona. Take Dallas (8*).

My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Kansas City at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

The Chiefs 'got right' with a win on the road against Jacksonville last week. Here, most are expecting them to run away and hide against the lowly Bears but I think we're in for a more competitive affair than anticipated. Chicago has so many issues right now, not only on the field but when it comes to the coaching staff as well. QB Justin Fields called out his coaches earlier this week and then an FBI raid led to the resignation of defensive coordinator Alan Williams. With all of that being said, I think getting on the field will be a welcome distraction on Sunday afternoon. I actually have high hopes for Bears QB Justin Fields in this matchup. The Chiefs defense got a big boost from the return of DT Chris Jones last week. That same emotional spark won't be there this week. Jones still figures to disrupt the Bears offensive gameplan but I do think that Fields has the mobility to be a little more elusive than Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence was last Sunday. Offensively, I still think the Chiefs are a bit in disarray. TE Travis Kelce returned last week and he figures to play a prominent role in the offense this week. The Bears know what's coming, however, and I do think they can do enough to slow the Kansas City attack on Sunday. Note that Chicago has held AFC West opponents to just 17 points on average in their last 33 matchups, outscored by an average margin of only 0.2 points along the way. Take Chicago (8*).

My selection is on Carolina plus the points over Seattle at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

Long a house of horrors for opposing teams, the Seahawks are in a bit of a nightmare spot of their own on Sunday, primed for a letdown off last week's 'upset' victory in Detroit. Carolina is off to an unsurprising 0-2 start and now travels on a short week after dropping a three-point decision at home against the Saints on Monday. Bryce Young won't play this week. That means the offense is left in the capable (?) hands of veteran QB Andy Dalton. I like the matchup for the Panthers offense here as they take on a depleted Seahawks defense that will be without a number of key contributors in the secondary. Seattle's defense isn't all that good at the best of times so without multiple key pieces it figures to be in tough. I actually feel Panthers RB Miles Sanders could be the x-factor here against a Seahawks defense that has proven vulnerable through the first two games of the season. Seattle is dealing with a cluster of injuries to its offensive line while QB Geno Smith has looked very much like a guy that is shouldering the weight of the offense thanks to an ineffective backfield. With DK Metcalf and Will Dissly banged-up there's just not a whole lot to get excited about with this Seahawks offense. Take Carolina (8*).

Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington plus the points over Buffalo at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Bills had little trouble shaking off a season-opening loss to the Jets, rebounding to crush the Raiders at home as a big favorite last Sunday. With that being said, I do expect them to be in for a fight in Washington this week. The Commanders are off to a surprising 2-0 start (to some). A win was certainly expected in their opener against the lowly Cardinals while last week's 'upset' victory in Denver was of the mild variety to be sure. Regardless, I do feel Washington matches up reasonably well with Buffalo this week and we're being offered a generous helping of points. The Commanders always seem to boast a fierce pass rush and this year has been no different. While few have paid much attention to their first two contests, they've racked up a whopping 10 sacks while applying heaps of pressure on opposing quarterbacks Joshua Dobbs and Russell Wilson. They'll be facing a much tougher opposing quarterback here, but also one that tends to get turnover-happy when under duress (as we saw in Week 1 against the Jets). Buffalo continues to employ a three-man rotation in the backfield and I think that has more to do with no one stepping up and taking the RB1 job than anything else. Washington hasn't given opposing running backs much room to run, allowing only 3.4 yards per rush so far this season. On the flip side, I think this Bills defense is beatable. I was fairly high on the Buffalo defense out of the gates this season, especially with the trio of Tre'Davious White, Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde finally all healthy at the same time in the secondary. In watching their first two games, however, I've seen a defense that looks vulnerable, particularly in the back-end. Neither the Jets or Raiders had the personnel to really stretch the field (due to Aaron Rodgers' injury and Jimmy Garoppolo's ineptness) but both teams still came up with some splash plays through the air (the Raiders game-opening touchdown drive last Sunday comes to mind). Here, Commanders QB Sam Howell should be able to test Buffalo's pass defense, working behind an offensive line that is one of the more underrated in the entire league. Washington has speed to burn at the receiver position with Terry McLaurin leading the way. TE Logan Thomas is questionable to play this week but his possible absence would only mean more touches for the likes of McLaurin and Jahan Dotson. Take Washington (10*).

AFC Division Game of the Year. My selection is on New England minus the points over New York at 1 pm et on Sunday.

This is a smash spot for the Patriots defense as they line up against a Jets offense that is completely out of sorts after losing QB Aaron Rodgers to a season-ending injury in Week 1. Compounding matters is the fact that New York is also without LT Duane Brown, meaning it's all systems go for the New England pass rush on Sunday. Bill Bellichick has owned Jets QB Zach Wilson and given the fact that New England enters this game sporting an 0-2 record, I don't expect the Pats to hold anything back gameplan-wise on Sunday. I've actually come away encouraged by the Pats offensive play-calling through two games under coordinator Bill O'Brien. There's not a lot New England can do schematically to circumvent an outstanding Jets secondary in this matchup, but I do think the Pats can move the football well enough to let their defense take care of the rest on Sunday. The Jets are obviously in desperate need of a spark offensively but they're unlikely to get it until Zach Wilson is sent to the bench, perhaps in favor of another veteran quarterback. Dalvin Cook certainly hasn't been the answer out of the backfield. All he's doing is eating into the workload of RB Breece Hall. Try as they might, I don't expect the Jets to break through offensively on Sunday. Take New England (10*).

NFC South Game of the Month. My selection is on New Orleans minus the points over Carolina at 7:15 pm et on Monday.

The Saints may not be an elite NFC team but I do think they'll be in the playoff conversation all season. Here, they'll look to keep pace with the division-leading Buccaneers and Falcons, who both secured their second straight wins to open the season yesterday afternoon. I think New Orleans is in excellent position to move to 2-0 as well with this favorable Monday night draw in Carolina. The Saints only eked out a one-point victory over Tennessee in what was a defensive slugfest last Sunday. There were lots of positives to take away from that low-scoring affair, however. QB Derek Carr looked very comfortable in the Saints pocket - this has the potential to be a terrific fit for the 32-year old quarterback. He won't be asked to do too much but does have the tools to distribute the football to a sneaky-good group of receivers and tight ends led by super sophomore Chris Olave. This is a potential blow-up spot for RB Jamaal Williams as well as he once again handles the lead back role. The Panthers were not good against the run in last Sunday's lopsided loss in Atlanta. Offensively, the Panthers have the potential to be one of the league's worst teams. While it's important not to overreact to Week 1 results, Carolina's 'O' looked lukewarm at best, relying heavily on Bryce Young's athleticism at quarterback to elevate a rag-tag cast of weapons (I use the term 'weapons' lightly in this case). The Saints defense put the clamps on the Titans offense last week and this is a similarly favorable matchup. Note that while the Panthers have won consecutive meetings in this series, their offensive ceiling remains low, producing 26 points or fewer in seven straight matchups with the Saints. In a similar vein, New Orleans has produced 18 points or less in each of the last four meetings but again, it brought in veteran QB Carr to give the offense a lift and I think we'll see it produce on Monday. Take New Orleans (10*).

My selection is on New York minus the points over Arizona at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

The Giants laid an egg at home against Dallas last Sunday night. That wasn't all that unexpected as the Cowboys have quite simply owned the G-Men in recent years. Here, New York draws a favorable bounce-back matchup in Arizona. The Cardinals kept things closer than expected on the road against Washington last Sunday, in what turned out to be an incredibly sloppy affair. Their offense looked lukewarm with Joshua Dobbs at quarterback. I can't imagine Dobbs is long for the job but Arizona's options are limited with an inexperienced rookie in Clayton Tune behind him. This is a matchup where the Giants defensive front should feast against a leaky Cardinals offensive line. On the flip side, Arizona was ripped for just shy of 100 yards by Commanders running backs last Sunday and should get similarly exposed by Saquon Barkley here. I think it's important not to overreact to the Giants Week 1 result as I do still believe this is an upgraded offensive team in their second season the guidance of head coach Brian Daboll. Offseason acquisition Darren Waller wasn't much of a factor against the Cowboys but should rebound along with Giants QB Daniel Jones in this far more forgiving matchup on Sunday. Here, we'll note that New York is a long-term 13-3 ATS when coming off a home loss by 21 points or more, as is the case here. Take New York (8*).

NFC Division Game of the Month. My selection is on San Francisco minus the points over Los Angeles at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

The Rams turned in one of the most impressive performances in Week 1 as they routed the division rival Seahawks, on the road no less. I expect them to suffer considerable regression here in Week 2, however, as they host the 49ers. Los Angeles is between a rock and a hard place defensively in this matchup. Last week, the Rams were able to play a very conservative style against the Seahawks, keeping everything in front of them and frustrating QB Geno Smith and his receiving corps all afternoon long. The 49ers are capable of taking full advantage of that type of gameplan though with RB Christian McCaffrey fresh off an efficient performance against the Steelers last week. It seemed as though the jury was still out on QB Brock Purdy over the course of the offseason but he looked incredible in a game managing role last Sunday and should be able to repeat that performance here. The Rams offense is still missing WR Cooper Kupp and QB Matt Stafford, while impressive in last week's win, is likely to be under duress for much of the afternoon on Sunday. The Steelers offense was arguably better positioned to move the football on this San Francisco defense last Sunday and couldn't get anything going. Pittsburgh managed only 62 rushing yards against the Niners defensive front and you could make the case that Los Angeles boasts a weaker backfield tandem in Cam Akers and Kyren Williams, even though the latter did impress against a swinging gate Seahawks defense last Sunday. Take San Francisco (10*).

My selection is on Las Vegas plus the points over Denver at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

Bettors certainly seem high on the Broncos as they look to turn the page following a dreadful 2022 campaign. Nathaniel Hackett took the fall and now it's Sean Payton's turn to try his hand at turning around Denver's fortunes. While the Broncos can't be much worse than they were a year ago, I don't see this as the Week 1 slam dunk that most do. This will be a revenge game of sorts for Raiders QB Jimmy Garoppolo after his 49ers dropped an ugly 11-10 decision in a Sunday night game here in Denver early last season. I'm actually higher on Jimmy G. than some as he gets a fresh start following an up and down career with the Niners. The Raiders certainly aren't without weapons on offense with RB Josh Jacobs back in the fold and WR Davante Adams getting up there in age but still able to ball with the best of them. I think Las Vegas has sneaky-good depth at the wide receiver position with Hunter Renfrow and Jakobi Meyers in the mix as well. While the Broncos have a few studs on defense, they also have some weaknesses and not a great deal of depth. It's a similar story for the Raiders defense. They upgraded their pass rush by drafting Tyree Wilson in the first round to pair with the electric Maxx Crosby. Their secondary is vulnerable but can Broncos QB Russell Wilson take advantage? Injuries throughout training camp and the preseason mean Wilson won't have his full arsenal of weapons at his disposal. While Sean Payton can scheme with the best of them and would certainly appear to have a considerable edge against Raiders head coach Josh McDaniels, I believe the Broncos are simply laying too many points in this Week 1 divisional matchup. Take Las Vegas (8*).

My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Kansas City at 6:30 pm et on Sunday.

As impressive as the Eagles have been from wire-to-wire this season I'm not sure the casual NFL viewer/follower realizes just how good this team is from top-to-bottom. There's been a lot of talk about how the Eagles have got off easy this season, facing a lighter schedule than most, even if the truth is they've gone against a very comparable slate of opponents to that of the Chiefs, for example. With QB Jalen Hurts healthy, the Eagles have been virtually unstoppable on offense and the same goes for the defense from a health perspective. When at full strength, as is the case right now, there's no more talented defense in the NFL even going position-by-position. Yes, the Chiefs legacy continues to grow with the trio of Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce the true faces of the franchise through it all. I'm concerned about just how banged-up they are, even with the bye week, heading into this contest. On so many occasions, Kansas City has been forced to rely upon Patrick Mahomes heroics (and the exploits of his supporting cast). Yes, the defense has come up big at times as well, most notably late in the Divisional Round win over the Jaguars, but I don't put that unit on nearly the same plane as that of the Eagles. Offensively, the Eagles have an incredibly versatile attack that can beat you in a number of different ways. The emergence of second-year WR DeVonta Smith has made them that much more explosive, and I think the production of TE Dallas Goedert gets overshadowed as well. The same goes for RB Miles Sanders, who is often afforded gaping holes to run through thanks to an all-world offensive line. I could go on, but the fact is, the Eagles have been the best team in the NFL all season long, and as difficult as it is to fade Reid, Mahomes and company, I'm willing to do it at what I consider to be a short number here. Take Philadelphia (10*).

My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over Cincinnati at 6:30 pm et on Sunday.

The Bengals have enjoyed tremendous success over the course of the last two seasons and will look to punch their ticket to the Super Bowl for the second straight year on Sunday at Arrowhead Stadium. I expect them to fall short. The Chiefs got a scare last Saturday when Patrick Mahomes suffered what appeared to be a devastating ankle injury early in the game against the Jaguars. Mahomes would ultimately return and Kansas City gutted out a tough 27-20 win over a game Jacksonville squad. I actually think the Chiefs are better for it after going through their share of adversity in that game. To say that this Kansas City squad is seasoned for this type of environment would be an understatement. The core of this team has seen it all and been here before (multiple times), most notably the trio of Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce. I'm confident that all three will play a significant role in booking a ticket back to the Super Bowl on Sunday. Last week, Cincinnati was able to overcome its significant absences on its offensive line. Here, I'm not sure it will be so fortunate, at least not when a big play is needed late. The Chiefs defense certainly doesn't get enough credit in the shadow of Mahomes and the team's explosive offense. While it will undoubtedly have its hands full with an elite Bengals offense here, I believe this is a group that expects to come up with that big play late, just as we saw last Saturday when it secured a critical interception in the latter stages of the fourth quarter against Jacksonville. Even on a bad ankle, Mahomes is capable of contributing his share of big plays on the offensive side of the football. Unlike last week when the Bengals benefited from facing a mistake-prone Bills offense, this time around they'll likely need to make their own breaks as Kansas City takes care of the football (only two turnovers in its last four games - both in Week 17 against Denver). I simply feel the Chiefs are the superior team and the fact that we're being asked to lay less than a field goal with them at home, in this rematch of last year's AFC Championship Game (which they lost) is a bargain. Take Kansas City (8*).

My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over San Francisco at 3 pm et on Sunday.

We backed the 49ers as our top side play of the entire season last week so I obviously have plenty of respect for the Kyle Shanahan-led squad. With that being said, I feel this is the week to jump off as the Niners enter riding a 12-game winning streak but prepare to face what I feel has been and is the most complete team in the NFL this season. The calf injury to Niners RB Christian McCaffrey is certainly a concern, even if they do have plenty of depth at the position, not to mention other ways to attack the Eagles defense. My concern for San Francisco here is that Philadelphia has the type of pass defense that can all but erase a guy like WR Brandon Aiyuk and even TE George Kittle. Deebo Samuel is still going to get his, especially if McCaffrey is less than 100% healthy but I'm not convinced that will be enough. Offensively, the Eagles are well-positioned to eat with QB Jalen Hurts looking prolific-as-always in last Saturday's rout of the Giants and the WR duo of A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith well-positioned to go off against a middle-of-the-road Niners pass defense. The injury to RB Tony Pollard absolutely derailed the Cowboys hopes of staging an upset of the Niners last Sunday. Here, I'm confident we'll see Eagles RB Miles Sanders have a productive afternoon to keep the San Francisco pass rush honest, noting also that Philadelphia possesses a truly elite offensive line, both in pass and run-blocking. This is a battle of two ultra-talented teams, both coming in playing their best football. I simply feel that the Eagles have a little more on both sides of the football and will ultimately book their ticket for Arizona on Sunday afternoon in the City of Brotherly Love. Take Philadelphia (10*).

NFL Game of the Year. My selection is on San Francisco minus the points over Dallas at 6:30 pm et on Sunday.

While the 49ers have been on an incredible run, not to mention the fact they've been the best bet in the NFL since mid-November, I can't help but feel they're just scratching the surface and dare I say still undervalued as they head into the Divisional Round of the playoffs on Sunday.

Yes, the Cowboys impressed in Monday's complete dismantling of Tom Brady and the Buccaneers in Tampa. However, that lopsided result had a lot to do with the inept nature of the Bucs, who by all accounts were nothing more than a middle-of-the-road team all season, benefiting from residing in a weak NFC South division. Tampa Bay didn't exactly throw a haymaker against what was admittedly a well-prepared Dallas squad that looked like a team on a mission after suffering an embarrassing loss on the road against Washington in the final week of the regular season. The Cowboys are in line for a 'shock to the system' here, however, as they stay on the road for a fourth straight game to face a 49ers team that is quite simply 'firing on all cylinders'.

San Francisco took a punch in the first half against the Seahawks last Saturday and I'm glad they did. The fact is, the Niners have faced a fairly breezy schedule going all the way back to mid-November. A little bit of adversity wasn't the worst thing for them to face in the Wild Card round and I believe they're better for it.

To say that the Niners are a difficult team to defend is putting it mildly. They have a multi-pronged attack that is unlikely anything we've seen in recent years and they've been taken to the next level by rookie QB Brock Purdy who continues to prove he is indeed the 'real deal'. The Cowboys have only really faced 'dink-and-dunk' type offenses over the last three games, so again I believe they're in for a bit of a reality check here.

While I have a lot of respect for the Cowboys offense, I'm still not convinced they'll lean as heavily on RB Tony Pollard as they should, still bent on giving Ezekiel Elliott his share of the pie in an offense where he should realistically only play a bit part (in my opinion).

QB Dak Prescott avoided the mistakes that had previously plagued him against the Bucs on Monday, but he was rarely under much duress in that contest. He's sure to face a lot more pressure against the 49ers elite defense here.

The Niners have absolutely stamped out opposing running games this season and likely puts a whole lot more on Dak's plate - similar to what we saw in recent road games against the Titans and Commanders in which the Cowboys ultimately turned the football over five times (they didn't commit a single turnover in Monday's win in Tampa). The 49ers have forced at least one turnover in 10 consecutive games and two or more in eight of those contests.

This is a rematch of last year's Wild Card game between these two teams in Dallas - a game the 49ers won by a 23-17 score. That final score was actually flattering to the Cowboys in my opinion. I expect San Francisco to ultimately pull away for a convincing victory and advance to the NFC Championship Game on Sunday. Take San Francisco (10*).

My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over New York at 8:15 pm et on Saturday.

We won with the Giants (and the 'over') in last Sunday's 'upset' win in Minnesota. While a lot of bettors are confident going back to the well with the G-Men in an underdog role again here, I think they're looking for something that's quite simply not there.

The Eagles are an elite team this season, in all facets. The bye week certainly helped their cause with QB Jalen Hurts and RB Miles Sanders among those looking to get back to 100% health, or as close to it as possible.

Last week's matchup with the Vikings was a dream scenario for the Giants as Minnesota featured a listless defense that couldn't pressure the quarterback, couldn't stop the run and couldn't stop the pass. The Giants were effectively able to do whatever they wanted offensively - everything worked. I expect a much different story to unfold here.

The one time the Eagles saw Giants RB Saquon Barkley this season, they held him to just 48 yards.

Last week's big performance through the air from New York QB Daniel Jones was largely matchup-related. He's going to find the going a lot tougher against the Eagles shutdown secondary led by Darius Slay and James Bradberry.

On the flip side, the Giants figure to have an extremely difficult time slowing the Eagles offense, particularly on the ground. Sanders absolutely torched the Giants in their regular season matchup in New York, finding the end zone twice on 155 yards.

The presence of Giants CB Adoree' Jackson (he missed the two regular season meetings) certainly helps their cause, but the emergence of Eagles WR Devonta Smith to compliment A.J. Brown figures to present New York with a 'pick-your-poison' situation here.

As is often the case, look for the superior, not to mention rested team to roll in this Divisional Round matchup. Take Philadelphia (8*).

My selection is on Tampa Bay plus the points first half over Dallas at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

I see this as a 'shock to the system' spot for the Cowboys after closing out the regular season with games against Josh Dobbs and the Titans and Sam Howell and the Commanders. Neither of those quarterbacks instilled much fear in the Cowboys defense but this is a much different situation on Monday as they go against Tom Brady and an 'as healthy as its been all season' supporting cast of weapons. To be honest, I'm not all that confident in putting this game into the hands of head coaches Mike McCarthy and Raheem Morris and their decision-making in the second half. Instead, we'll back the Bucs with a one-point cushion in the game's first 30 minutes, noting that Tampa Bay has led 21-16 and 12-3 in the two previous meetings between these two teams going back to the start of last season and was also tied or leading in three of its final four regular season contests. Take Tampa Bay first half (8*).

Wild Card Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points first half over Jacksonville at 8:15 pm et on Saturday.

I'm far more interested in backing the Chargers minus the short number in the first half rather than the full game in this one as head coach Brandon Staley's crunch-time coaching decisions have rightfully been called to question ever since he took over the gig. Here, I do think the Bolts have enough early advantages to take a lead into the locker room at halftime.

Note that Los Angeles is 10-1 against the first half line when seeking revenge against an opponent over the last three seasons, as is the case here after the Jaguars boat-raced the Chargers at SoFi Stadium earlier this season. Better still, the Chargers are a perfect 6-0 ATS in the first half when seeking revenge for a same-season loss against an opponent over the same stretch. In that situation, they've outscored opponents by an impressive average margin of 10.8 points in the first half.

Meanwhile, the Jags are a woeful 0-7 ATS against the first half line when playing at home after a division game over the last three seasons, outscored by 10.0 points on average in that spot.

I like the way this matchup sets up on paper for the Chargers as the Jags haven't been particularly stout against the pass this season and have struggled in particular defending opposing running backs that can catch the football. Of course the Bolts have one of the best in that department in Austin Ekeler, who enters the playoffs on a red hot tear. The same goes for QB Justin Herbert, who had a fantastic final two regular season games, tossing four touchdown passes.

It's a different story for Jags sophomore QB Trevor Lawrence. He struggled down the stretch, even in last Saturday's must-win game against the Titans, which the Jags did manage to pull out by the skin of their teeth. Take Los Angeles first half (10*).

My selection is on Denver minus the points over Los Angeles at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

The coaching change seemed to provide the Broncos with a spark last week as they fell just short in a near-upset in Kansas City. Here, I look for them to snap their two-game skid, while also wrecking Los Angeles' four-game winning streak in the process. This is a game Denver has almost certainly had circled on its calendar since dropping a tough 19-16 decision in a Thursday night game in Los Angeles back in mid-October. While it remains to be seen how much or if Chargers starters will play in this game, the Broncos do have most of their offensive weapons at their disposal. Of course, I use that term 'weapons' somewhat lightly given how they've performed with QB Russell Wilson running the show this season. Nevertheless, I like this spot fading the Chargers after they clinched a playoff berth last week. Take Denver (8*).

AFC West Game of the Month. My selection is on Las Vegas plus the points over Kansas City at 4:30 pm et on Saturday.

I simply feel the Raiders are a dangerous team with nothing to lose here in Week 18 of the regular season. We certainly saw plenty of fight from Las Vegas last Sunday as it gave San Francisco all it could handle but ultimately lost by a field goal for the second straight week. QB Jarrett Stidham gave the Raiders offense some life and I think we'll see some carry-over effect from last week's performance here. The Chiefs are just 6-10 ATS on the season, including 3-5 ATS away from home. Meanwhile, the Raiders check in an impressive 5-2 ATS here at Allegiant Stadium. While Kansas City has won four straight games, three of those contests could have gone either way. Who knows what the future holds for the Raiders franchise on many fronts, but here I look for them to give the division-rival Chiefs all they can handle in the regular season finale for both teams. Take Las Vegas (10*).

Non-Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on New York minus the points over Indianapolis at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Colts are going to be in tough playing on the road on a short week with a seemingly lame duck head coach in Jeff Saturday not to mention a journeyman quarterback nearing the end of his career in Nick Foles. Nothing worked for the Colts in Monday's loss to the Chargers - on either side of the football. Things aren't likely to get any better here as they hit the road to face the playoff-hungry Giants who are coming off a disappointing last-second loss against the Vikings last Sunday. Credit New York for hanging in there despite the red hot Minnesota offense racking up 270 yards through the air on 34 Kirk Cousins pass completions. While it never feels all that comfortable laying more than a field goal with an offensively-limited team such as the Giants, the fact is they've been winning by margin. Since opening the season with consecutive wins by a field goal or less, their last six victories have come by 8, 5, 4, 6, 8 and 8 points. That's four out of six victories by more than the spread we're dealing with this week (at the time of writing) with the other two coming against potential playoff-bound teams in the Packers and Ravens. I like the fact that Giants RB Saquon Barkley should be fresh for this one after a limited workload last Sunday in Minnesota (the Giants ran the football 21 times - their lowest rush attempt total since Thanksgiving in Dallas). Also helping New York's cause is the absence of one of Indianapolis' best defenders in slot corner Kenny Moore. Take New York (10*).

My selection is on Denver minus the points over Los Angeles at 4:30 pm et on Sunday.

We'll take this opportunity to fade the injury-riddled Rams one more time on Sunday as they return home on a short week to host the Broncos. Denver's defense should feast on a depleted Rams offense that is now without WR Ben Skowronek in addition to all of the key contributors they were previously missing, particularly on the offensive line. While I'm by no means high on the Broncos offense, I do believe they can find plenty of open field against Los Angeles here. The Rams seemingly gave their backers some false hope with that come-from-behind home win over the Raiders two-plus weeks ago. I think we saw something closer to the real Rams in their current state in Monday's ugly road loss against the Packers. Returning home where there might be as many Broncos fans as Rams fans in the stands, we'll back the visitors here. Take Denver (8*).

AFC Game of the Year. My selection is on New York minus the points over Jacksonville at 8:15 pm et on Thursday.

While the presence of Zach Wilson under center will keep a lot of bettors off the Jets on Thursday night, I'm not in that group as I expect them to take full advantage of this winnable in-conference matchup in primetime. Last Sunday's game had a dream setup for the Jets as they hosted the Lions who happened to be in a prime letdown spot. New York had every opportunity to win that game but ultimately fell apart late, allowing Detroit to sneak through the back door with a late touchdown. Here, I don't believe Jacksonville will be so fortunate. The Jags of course pulled off a stunning home upset over the Cowboys last Sunday, rallying from down big early to steal a victory in overtime. That win didn't come without a price, however, as the Jags lost key offensive lineman Cam Robinson and now go against a fierce Jets defense that I'm still not sure gets enough praise or credit for all it has accomplished this season. The Jags offense is undoubtedly on the rise but here, on a short week, off that massive performance last Sunday, I can't help but feel a letdown is in order. I mentioned the presence of Jets QB Zach Wilson earlier. He's starting out of necessity only as Mike White remains sidelined. I actually thought Wilson had one of his better games against the Lions last Sunday, even if he did make a couple of boneheaded mistakes. Here, I don't think we'll see the Jets heap too much on Wilson's plate. The Jags don't defend the pass particularly well, nor do they do a great job of containing opposing running backs, both on the ground and in the short passing game. Note that Jacksonville will be without one of its best pass rushers in first overall draft pick Travon Walker for this one. I believe this line will prove too short in favor of the home side. Take New York (10*).

MNF Game of the Month. My selection is on Green Bay minus the points over Los Angeles at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

Credit the Rams for rallying, led by QB Baker Mayfield, a week ago Thursday, stunning the Raiders with a pair of late touchdowns to steal a victory at home. That win had more to do with Las Vegas taking its foot off the gas than anything else - something I don't expect the Packers to do in front of their home faithful at Lambeau Field on Monday. It's easy to forget Green Bay actually won (and covered) in its most recent game two weeks ago in Chicago. That solid performance against a 'tough out' in the Bears proved that the Pack haven't given up on the season. In fact, I believe their trajectory is pointed up with their offense finally coming around and well-positioned to feast against an Aaron Donald-less Rams defense on Monday. RB Aaron Jones has been dealing with a multitude of injuries but coming off the bye week should be as healthy as he's been in quite some time, and he stands to benefit more than anyone on the Packers offense from the absence of Donald and key run-stopper A'Shawn Robinson. All of the talk last week was about Baker Mayfield somehow absorbing enough of the Rams offensive playbook in just two days (he had signed with the team earlier in the week). Now he's had a little more time to digest the Rams offensive scheme so many expect him to come out firing on Monday. I expect precisely the opposite, noting that Mayfield is still operating behind a poor run and pass blocking offensive line (mostly due to injuries) and with a limited group of weapons around him. Green Bay, despite its overall struggles this season, has remained stout against the pass and should be able to snuff out any thought of Mayfield stringing together a second straight solid performance. Take Green Bay (10*).

My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Chiefs almost let one get away after building a big early lead in Denver last Sunday. I don't expect them to let their foot off the gas again this week, however, and they catch the lowly Texans in a prime letdown spot off last week's near-upset win in Dallas. While Kansas City did allow 28 points against a seemingly punchless Broncos squad last Sunday, that poor performance can't really be pinned entirely on the defense as the offense turned the football over three times. You can be sure head coach Andy Reid has been preaching about playing a 'clean' football game in response this Sunday. The Texans were already down-trodden defensively and now they'll have to deal with the absence of both corners, standout rookie Derek Stingley and Steven Nelson. This is a 'name your score' type of game for the Chiefs offense. While Kansas City enters this game off consecutive ATS losses, it has yet to drop the cash in three straight games this season, responding by scoring 41 and 44 points in two previous contests following consecutive ATS defeats here in 2022. The Texans ultimately covered the spread in Dallas last Sunday but haven't delivered back-to-back ATS victories since way back in Weeks 1 and 2 this season. Take Kansas City (8*).

My selection is on Cleveland minus the points over Baltimore at 4:30 pm et on Saturday.

We won with the Ravens last Sunday in Pittsburgh but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Browns as they host Baltimore on Saturday afternoon. It wasn't pretty, but the Ravens got the job done against the Steelers last week. QB Tyler Huntley turned in a gutsy performance but now has to play on a short week after suffering a head injury in last Sunday's game. Baltimore will certainly look to lean on its defense again here, but I don't like the spot as Browns QB Deshaun Watson has now had two games under his belt - both on the road no less - and can lean heavily on his backfield, which is line line for a sharp bounce-back performance here. Baltimore has been excellent against the run lately, but has faced a rather straight-forward slate of opponents going all the way back to late October when it travelled to Tampa. The Ravens last six games have come against teh Bucs, Saints, Panthers, Jaguars, Broncos and Steelers - none of which boast a ground attack as dynamic as Cleveland's in my opinion. I saw enough good things from Watson last Sunday and enough improvement from the Browns lagging defense (noting that they catch a favorable matchup against a banged-up Ravens offense here) to warrant a shot with the revenge-minded home side here. Take Cleveland (8*).

NFC Division Game of the Month. My selection is on San Francisco minus the points over Seattle at 8:15 pm et on Thursday.

I think a lot of bettors are talking themselves into backing the home divisional underdog in Seattle on Thursday but I feel it's the wrong move. I don't believe 49ers QB Brock Purdy is going to be a 'one-and-done' story. Yes, he is probably getting too much hype off last Sunday's monster first half against the Buccaneers. That doesn't mean that he can't enjoy continued success, however. The fact is, the Niners gameplan should be focused around getting RB Christian McCaffrey the ball here anyway as the Seahawks have been dismal against the run and could be without one of their best run-stoppers in DT Al Woods after he suffered an achilles injury in last Sunday's loss to the Panthers. The Niners have injury issues of their own, of course, most notably to do-it-all WR Deebo Samuel. This is a deep offense, however, and I'm confident we'll see guys like George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk and even Jauan Jennings step up in Samuel's absence. While San Francisco has yielded plenty of yardage to opposing wide receivers this season, that's really only because it has been playing from ahead so much and opponents have bailed on their ground attacks after gaining little headway. How about this - the Niners last six opponents have run for 56, 51, 67, 63, 33 and 69 yards. While I am high on Seahawks rookie RB Kenneth Walker, who is expected to return from injury here, I'm not convinced he'll do anything other than run into the Niners line over and over again on Thursday. Seattle allowed a whopping 30 points to the lowly Panthers last week. That's notable when you consider the Niners haven't allowed 30 points over their last three-and-a-half games. In fact, the Seahawks have yielded 93 points over their last three contests while San Francisco hasn't given up that many points over its last six games combined. I did consider playing the Niners on the moneyline here given the fact that we have seen a number of games decided by a field goal or less between these division rivals over the years. However, noting that the straight-up winner has gone a perfect 10-0 ATS in games where the line closed at a field goal or less involving these teams this season, I'll confidently lay the points with the visitors here. Take San Francisco (10*).

My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over New York at 1 pm et on Sunday.

We won with the Giants plus the points last week against the Commanders but it certainly wasn't easy as they coughed up a late 20-13 lead and ultimately settled for a 20-20 tie. Here, I won't hesitate to switch gears and fade New York as it stays home to host the juggernaut Philadelphia Eagles. This is another smash spot for Eagles QB Jalen Hurts as he continues his march to an MVP trophy. The difference this week compared to last Sunday against Tennessee is that Philadelphia should also be able to run the football at will on a G-Men defense that has acted as little more than a swinging-gate against opposing ground games this season. With Philadelphia having shored up its own run defense in recent weeks, it should have little trouble keeping a regressing Giants offense at bay on Sunday afternoon. New York had a few good moments in last week's tie against Washington, but ultimately struggled to put the game away and could do virtually nothing with its overtime drives. Whether RB Saquon Barkley is wearing down or if it's just poor run-blocking on the part of the Giants o-line, there's no question he has regressed considerably. Still technically not out of the woods atop the NFC East, look for the Eagles to lay the hammer down here. Take Philadelphia (8*).

My selection is on Baltimore plus the points over Pittsburgh at 1 pm et on Sunday.

I'm not buying the line move here as I'm not convinced it's a monumental downgrade from Lamar Jackson to Tyler Huntley at quarterback for the Ravens. Jackson has shown flashes of brilliance this season but as a whole, I don't feel he has been as unstoppable or dominant as we've come to expect. He's struggled to connect with his receivers and tight ends on deep passes in particular and while his presence certainly forces the hand of opposing defensive coordinators, I do think Huntley in the starting role bring a different set of challenges as well. Pittsburgh is riding high off consecutive wins but those came against the Colts and Falcons, two opponents that quite simply didn't match up well. It's a different story with the Ravens, and I think we're getting a bargain-basement price to back them in an underdog role here, thanks in large part to the fact they've dropped the cash in three consecutive games heading in. It's hard not to forget that the Ravens went into Pittsburgh without Jackson (RGIII started in his place) in December of 2020, were listed as an 11-point underdog and ultimately gave Pittsburgh all it could handle in a 19-14 loss. Here, I expect John Harbaugh to employ a similar gameplan with the Ravens leaning on their ground attack and defense to effectively shorten proceedings and give themselves a chance. Take Baltimore (8*).

TNF Game of the Year. My selection is on Las Vegas minus the points over Los Angeles at 8:15 pm et on Thursday.

We actually backed the injury-riddled Rams in Kansas City two weeks ago - a game in which they did sniff out an ATS and ultimately delivered a 'push' for most bettors. They followed that up with a loss but cover against the Seahawks last Sunday in a game that featured a misleading final score in my opinion. Were it not for Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker going down to injury early in that contest, I do think Seattle would have run up the score. Note that it scored touchdowns on two of its first three offensive drives before Walker was forced to exit the game and the Seahawks balance disappeared. This Rams defense is a mess without DTs Aaron Donald and A'Shawn Robinson, unable to generate much push or clog up the middle. The Raiders have precisely the type of offense that can expose the L.A. defense with RB Josh Jacobs running as well as anyone in the league, even if he is a little nicked-up (few players are 100% healthy at this stage of the season). With corner Jalen Ramsey having a miserable time on an island on this Rams defense, Raiders WR Davante Adams figures to smash in this spot. In last Sunday's game, Seahawks WRs Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf went off, hauling in a combined 17 catches for 255 yards and two scores. The sky is the limit for Adams here. On the flip side, the Raiders defense is rounding into form at the right time with the duo of Chandler Jones and Maxx Crosby terrorizing opposing offensive lines. Of course, the Rams boast one of the league's worst o-lines with QB John Wolford absorbing four sacks last week and now dealing with a neck injury, potentially leaving this game in the hands of newly-signed QB Baker Mayfield, who is with his third different team since last season and has had about two days to learn the playbook. While I don't love backing a team that has reeled off three consecutive ATS wins at this stage of the season, I feel we can confidently back the Raiders against a Rams squad that is already looking ahead to next year. Take Las Vegas (10*).

My selection is on Indianapolis plus the points over Dallas at 8:20 pm et on Sunday.

The Colts just got upset at home against the Steelers on Monday Night Football and I think the knee-jerk reaction from most is to fade them again on a short week on the road against the mighty Cowboys in Dallas. Dallas bettors certainly felt wronged thanks to the Giants 'meaningless' touchdown in the final seconds on Thanksgiving, ultimately giving New York the ATS cover. Keep in mind, Indianapolis had gone a perfect 2-0 ATS in controversial coaching hire's first two games prior to Monday's setback. It's not as if the Colts are bereft of talent and I believe they have the personnel in place to effectively shorten this game - precisely what you want from an underdog side catching double-digits on the road. For the Cowboys, I can't help but feel they've reached a lull in their schedule with this game followed by a home date with the lowly Texans and a trip to Jacksonville to face the Jaguars. Prior to this, the 'Boys had gone up against the Packers and Vikings on the road and the division-rival Giants on Thanksgiving over a three-game stretch. Noting that Dallas is just 9-12 ATS in its last 21 games after scoring 25 points or more in four consecutive games while the Colts are 6-2 ATS in their last eight contests off an outright loss as a favorite, we'll confidently back Indy here. Take Indianapolis (8*).

My selection is on Green Bay minus the points over Chicago at 1 pm et on Sunday.

As bad as things have gone for the Packers this season, they can take solace in the fact that they're still better than the Bears, and by a wide margin in my opinion. Green Bay draws Chicago in a smash spot here. The Bears might have QB Justin Fields back but how effective he can be remains to be seen. His supporting cast should be downgraded with WR Darnell Mooney now sidelined. The Packers figure to control proceedings from the get-go with an emerging offense led by WR Christian Watson, who is finally evolving into a downfield threat. RB Aaron Jones is in line for a massive bounce-back performance here against a Bears defense that can't stop, or even slow opposing ground attacks since dealing away much of its talent prior to the trade deadline. There haven't been a lot of feel-good moments for Packers fans this season but this will be one of them. Take Green Bay (8*).

AFC Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Houston plus the points over Cleveland at 1 pm et on Sunday.

This is a game that the Texans have likely been waiting for just as long as the Browns have as Cleveland gives former-Texan Deshaun Watson his long-awaited first start with his new team following a long suspension. This is a prime letdown spot for Cleveland after it pulled out an improbable 23-17 overtime win over Tom Brady and the Buccaneers last Sunday. I'm not ready to start believing in this 4-7 team just yet, however, noting they had lost consecutive games by a combined margin of 30 points prior to that upset victory. Cleveland has won just once on the road this season and that victory came by only two points in Carolina way back in Week 1. Here, the Browns are laying more than a touchdown. Houston is riding a season-high six-game losing streak and has dropped the cash in a season-high three consecutive games as well. I do feel that QB Kyle Allen gives them a better chance to win than Davis Mills at this point. The reality is the offense should run through RB Dameon Pierce and he figures to eat against a Browns defense that has struggled mightily against the run this season. Note that this is also a 'revenge game' for Houston after it dropped a 31-21 decision in Cleveland last year. There are very few spots where I would recommend backing the Texans the rest of the way, but this just happens to be one of them. Take Houston (10*).

NFC East Game of the Month. My selection is on New York plus the points over Washington at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Commanders have won three games in a row to climb into the playoff conversation in the NFC. I expect a letdown here, however, as they hit the road to face the Giants on Sunday. Washington has benefited from a 7-3 turnover margin in its favor over its last three contests. Here, I can't help but feel we'll see the Giants wreak havoc defensively against Commanders QB Taylor Heinicke, who I do feel has been walking the thin line between success and failure over the last few games. Getting back Evan Neal on the offensive line should pay immediate dividends for Giants RB Saquon Barkley, who has admittedly struggled in recent weeks. Once again, not much will be asked of QB Daniel Jones. The hope here is that he's tasked with playing with a lead rather than from behind as we saw last week against Dallas. Note that Washington is a long-term loser in the role of favorite, going 70-103 ATS. Meanwhile, New York has delivered the cash 11 of the last 13 times it has come off a Thursday game, as is the case here. Take New York (10*).

NFC Game of the Week. My selection is on Green Bay plus the points over Philadelphia at 8:20 pm et on Sunday.

I don't know how you can be all that high on the Eagles right now as they enter Sunday's contest off three consecutive ATS losses after narrowly escaping with a 17-16 win in Indianapolis last Sunday. The time to fade the Packers was last Thursday - fresh off a huge come-from-behind upset win over the Cowboys - which we did with the Titans in that game. Now everyone has once again written off Aaron Rodgers and company in a spot where I believe they can give the Eagles all they can handle. Note that Green Bay laid waste to Philadelphia by a 30-16 score the last time they met less than two years ago. In that contest, Eagles QB Jalen Hurts completed 5-of-12 passes for 109 yards, one touchdown and one interception while running five times for 29 yards. Interestingly, TE Dallas Goedert led the Eagles in catches and receiving yards in that game. He's now sidelined, leaving the tight end position to a duo that includes Jack Stoll and Grant Calcaterra. Obviously Hurts is a much better quarterback now than he was two years ago. With that being said, I don't believe there's any sort of intimidation factor at play, certainly not after the Commanders and Colts bottled up this Eagles offense over the last two weeks. The Packers are an interesting study in many regards, still boasting plenty of talent on both sides of the football, and perhaps a chip on their shoulder in the 'spoiler' role down the stretch. Take Green Bay (10*).

Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Kansas City at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

Yeah, the Rams are going nowhere this season. Everyone knows that. They're also missing most of their key contributors on offense - a unit that is almost unrecognizable at this point. The Chiefs know that as well and off a hard-fought, come-from-behind, last minute victory over the Chargers last week, I can't help but feel they're in for a letdown here. Kansas City doesn't run away and hide on the opposition this season. You could say only two of their games have been true blowouts - a 44-21 win in Arizona way back in Week 1 and a 44-23 rout of the 49ers on October 23rd. Here, they'll be facing a Rams team that has allowed more than 27 points just once all season, and they'll do so with their own injury issues. Already thin at the wide receiver position, they're still without Mecole Hardman and now Kadarius Toney is banged-up as well. Note that Kansas City has allowed 17 or more points in all 10 games so far this season so there's little reason to expect it to completely shut down the Rams offense here. I do like Los Angeles' chances of churning out some long, clock-eating drives in an effort to effectively shorten this game on Sunday and that certainly works in our favor catching north of two touchdowns. Take Los Angeles (10*).

My selection is on New York minus the points over Chicago at 1 pm et on Sunday.

While I would prefer to be in on this one at the opener, I still expect the Jets to come away with a double-digit victory, so I'll lay the touchdown on Sunday afternoon in New Jersey. Should Justin Fields end up playing, we'll see this line come down in which case I would elevate this to a 9* play. The potential is there for a 'slingshot effect' when it comes to the Jets offense in this one as they make the switch to Mike White at quarterback in place of an ineffective and mistake-prone Zach Wilson. There are too many gamebreakers on this offense for it to be held back by its quarterback. White isn't going to set the world on fire, but he will do a better job of limiting mistakes and getting the ball into the hands of his playmakers. Keep in mind, New York is coming off a brutal four-game stretch that saw it face the Broncos, Patriots (twice) and Bills defenses so lining up against the Bears down-trodden unit should offer a breath of fresh air. Already struggling in pass defense, Chicago is now down two of its best (relatively-speaking) young corners in Jaquan Brisker and Kyler Gordon. While it may be counter-intuitive to lay this type of number with the Jets, they've actually won a pair of games by 17 and 23 points and half of their six victories have come by at least a touchdown. Take New York (8*).