Sports Picks & Predictions

Interleague Game of the Week. My selection is on Houston -1.5 runs over Cleveland at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday.

The Astros righted the ship with a pair of wins over the Rockies in Mexico and now return home to host the Guardians on Tuesday night. Houston has been one of baseball's biggest disappointments so far this season but it's still very early. I like their chances of teeing off on Guardians starter Carlos Carrasco on Tuesday. Note that Carrasco owns a lofty 5.04 FIP and 1.63 WHIP in five starts this season. Current Astros hitters have gone a combined 35-for-127 against him including seven home runs. Of note, Yordan Alvarez is 2-for-2 with two home runs off of Carrasco. With all of that experience there's plenty of knowledge to impart up and down the lineup. It's a much different story for Astros starter Hunter Brown against the Guardians. Only Ramon Laureano has seen him before and he's gone 0-for-5. Brown isn't having a banner sophomore campaign by any means but I'll take a flyer on him here noting that he has pitched better in his last two outings including a home start against the Braves in which he gave up just two earned runs over six innings. The Guardians bullpen has been superior to that of the Astros this season but over the last week or so, it's been more of a wash. Take Houston -1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on Cleveland -1.5 runs over Oakland at 6:10 pm et on Saturday.

We'll fade Alex Wood and the A's on Saturday as they challenge Logan Allen and the Guardians in Game 2 of their series in Cleveland. Wood's best days are obviously behind him. He's made four starts this season, logging a 5.54 FIP and 2.10 WHIP. Logan Allen hasn't exactly been at his best for the Guardians but the potential is there and I look for him to bounce back from consecutive rough outings here at home. Note that he has posted a 1.36 WHIP through 21 1/3 innings of work this season. The A's are off to a fine start this season - certainly better than most expected - but I'm going to be looking to fade them in the coming weeks. Take Cleveland -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Los Angeles -1.5 runs over New York at 4:05 pm et on Saturday.

I like the Dodgers to rebound from last night's loss to the Mets and two losses in a row overall. Jose Butto has been impressive for the Mets so far this season but I do think he's in for some considerable regression moving forward. The hits simply haven't been falling in against him as he has held the opposition to 3.8 hits per nine innings. Keep in mind, for his limited big league career, Butto has allowed 7.3 hits per nine frames. Dodgers starter Gavin Stone has also got off to a solid start this season with a 2.18 FIP and 1.57 WHIP despite allowing 11.0 hits per nine innings. The Mets bullpen didn't have to do a lot of heavy lifting in last night's game but I think we'll see a different story on Saturday as the Dodgers offense figures to erupt off a couple of subpar performances. Take Los Angeles -1.5 runs (8*).

A.L. East Game of the Week. My selection is on New York -1.5 runs over Toronto at 3:05 pm et on Wednesday.

Kevin Gausman has been awful in his last two starts. In fact, he's been pretty bad going all the way back to last August save for a few starts. When things have gone south for the veteran right-hander it's been in spectacular fashion. Note that in Gausman's last seven team losses, the opposition has plated a whopping 51 runs. After dropping the first two games of this series, I look for the Yankees to rebound on Wednesday afternoon. Marcus Stroman will get the nod for New York. He's coming off a rocky outing of his own but still owns a respectable 3.42 FIP and 1.06 WHIP on the campaign. He'll of course be up for this matchup against his former team. The Jays bullpen has held up well in this series so far but I think it's only a matter of time before it gets blown up. We'll bet that today is the day. Take New York -1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on Minnesota -1.5 runs over Baltimore at 1:05 pm et on Wednesday.

The Orioles have elected to give Bruce Zimmermann the start on Wednesday as they look to wrap up a series sweep of the Twins. This is a starting pitching mismatch as Minnesota will hand the ball to its ace Pablo Lopez. We'll lay the extra run in this spot as the Twins are well-positioned to avoid the sweep in convincing fashion, noting their bullpen continues to pitch well having recorded a collective 2.37 ERA and 1.09 WHIP on the season. Take Minnesota -1.5 runs (8*).

National League Game of the Month. My selection is on Arizona -1.5 runs over Chicago at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday.

The Cubs have now won three games in a row but I expect them to fall flat on Tuesday as they send Kyle Hendricks to the mound against Tommy Henry. This likely amounts to a bullpen game and in that case I'll favor the Diamondbacks based on the situation alone. Note that Chicago has been involved in four straight tightly-contested games in as many days, using many of its key bullpen arms. There's a good chance this one gets way from the Cubs, especially with Hendricks struggling (he's been one of the worst starters in baseball so far this season) in the early going. While I'm not overly high on Tommy Henry, I do think the attractive plus-money return laying the extra run with the D'Backs is too much to pass up, noting that seven of their eight wins this year have come by at least two runs including all six victories at home. Take Arizona -1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on Atlanta -1.5 runs over Houston at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday.

The Braves were high on Reynaldo Lopez when they brought him over from the White Sox and perhaps for good reason. He's proven to be a useful cog in their injury-depleted starting rotation and I look for him to step up and give them another quality outing on Tuesday. It's a much different story for Astros starter Hunter Brown. He has all the tools to succeed but hasn't been able to put it together in his first season-plus at the big league level. He's been rocked over his last two outings and now faces the daunting task of trying to keep the Braves loaded lineup at bay. Behind Brown is an Astros bullpen that has been among the worst in baseball so far this season. It was only a matter of time before the Braves pulled away last night and I expect a similar story to unfold on Tuesday. Take Atlanta -1.5 runs (8*).

National League Game of the Month. My selection is on San Francisco -1.5 runs over Miami at 6:40 pm et on Monday.

Marlins starter A.J. Puk has proven he's not ready for a rotation spot, issuing 14 walks while giving up 12 hits in barely 10 innings of work this season. The Giants should be in a foul mood after failing to secure a series win in St. Petersburg yesterday. Kyle Harrison looks like he has the stuff to succeed at the big league level and I'm confident he'll put San Francisco in good position to win by margin on Monday in Miami. Take San Francisco -1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on Chicago -1.5 runs over Seattle at 9:40 pm et on Saturday.

I think there's a certain feeling of confidence the Cubs have when Japanese import Shota Imanaga takes the hill, even if he is only two outings into his big league career. The Cubs have won his two previous starts by scores of 5-0 and 8-1 and I like their chances of posting another lopsided victory on Saturday in Seattle. The Mariners did take the opener of this series last night as the Cubs bats were silent against Bryce Miller and the Seattle bullpen. This is a fine bounce-back spot as they draw Mariners sophomore starter Emerson Hancock. He has yet to really fine-tune his stuff, as evidenced by a 7.52 FIP and 1.96 WHIP through two outings this season. He's now faced 93 batters at the major league level going back to last season and they've recorded a lofty .325 batting average against him. Take Chicago -1.5 runs (8*).

A.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on Texas -1.5 runs over Oakland at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday.

The A's have inexplicably reeled off three straight wins but I look for that streak to end on Wednesday. Ross Stripling will get the start for Oakland. He caught lightning in a bottle in his most recent outing, getting involved in a pitching duel with Nick Pivetta of the Red Sox in an eventual 1-0 loss. Those type of impressive outings are likely to be few and far between for the journeyman starter this season, however. After his line drive percentage rocketed last season it has held through two starts this year as well. I look for the Rangers bats to feast. Cody Bradford doesn't get much attention near the back of the Rangers starting rotation but he has the potential to be a quality arm for the defending champs again this year. Bradford won't overwhelm hitters with his pitch velocity but he makes the most of his pitch arsenal and has recorded a 2.91 FIP and 0.47 WHIP through two outings this season. The A's have been winning but have a small margin for error averaging only 3.0 runs per game on the season. Take Texas -1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on San Francisco -1.5 runs over Washington at 3:45 pm et on Wednesday.

The Giants are reeling right now having dropped the first two games of this series but I look for them to bounce back on Wednesday. Patrick Corbin will get the start for Washington. The beauty of fading Corbin is that as poorly as he's likely to pitch, the Nationals aren't going to lift him from the game early. He's quite simply an innings eater at this stage of his career with a FIP approaching six and a WHIP nearing two already this season. Jordan Hicks continues to get run out as a starter for the Giants and so far, so good. Hicks had a terrific spring and has recorded a sub-2.00 FIP and 0.75 WHIP in 12 regular season innings. We'll lay the extra run in this spot. Take San Francisco -1.5 runs (8*).

N.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on San Francisco -1.5 runs over San Diego at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

Padres starter Matt Waldron's stay at the big league level could prove to be short-lived but we want to fade him while we can as he makes his second start of the campaign in San Francisco on Sunday. Waldron actually looked pretty good in the Spring, earning a role in the starting rotation. His first regular season outing didn't go so well as he allowed nine hits and four earned runs in just four innings of work. The Giants will get their second look at the knuckle-baller after facing him in late September last year. Waldron recorded a 5.46 FIP in 41 1/3 big league innings last season. San Francisco will hand the ball to Logan Webb as he looks to shake off a rough outing in Los Angeles earlier this week. I'm not overly concerned by that shaky performance as Webb was terrific in his regular season debut (against these same Padres). The Giants ace owns a career 2.56 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 10 starts against San Diego. Take San Francisco -1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on Kansas City -1.5 runs over Chicago at 7:40 pm et on Thursday.

The Royals let the Orioles off the hook last night, blowing a late 3-0 lead in a 4-3 defeat. I don't expect them to suffer the same fate as they return home to host the White Sox on Thursday. Chicago is coming off a rain-out against the Braves yesterday. Mike Soroka is expected to get the start for the Sox. He was roughed up early in his season debut before settling down. So far so good on the injury front for the right-hander. I do think expectations should be tempered as he is by no means a number two starter for most teams in baseball. Seth Lugo is in his sweet spot as a home favorite, noting his teams have gone 16-5 (+7.6 net games) in his last 21 starts in that role. The White Sox check in a woeful 58-81 (-30.8 net games) in their last 139 contests following a victory, as is the case here. Take Kansas City -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Chicago -1.5 runs over Colorado at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday.

Kyle Freeland remains in the Rockies rotation for another year and if his season debut was any indication, it's likely to be another long one for the veteran left-hander. Freeland has had previous success in two career starts at Wrigley Field. Those came prior to 2019 though. We can expect the Cubs bats to tee off on the soft-tossing southpaw on Tuesday. Javier Assad is a typical back-of-the-rotation starter but not a bad one by any means. He'll give Chicago 5-6 effective innings against a stuttering Rockies offense on Tuesday. I'm not interested in paying near -200 prices this early in the season but will lay the extra run for a plus-money return with the Cubbies here. Take Chicago -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Atlanta -1.5 runs over Chicago at 2:10 pm et on Monday.

This is a smash spot for the Braves off Sunday's loss in Philadelphia. Atlanta sends Charlie Morton to the mound against Chris Flexen of the White Sox. Morton had a terrific Spring posting a sub-3.00 ERA after turning back the clock to the tune of a 3.64 ERA in 2023. Flexen will be pitching for his fourth big league club after stints with the Mets, Mariners and Rockies. Things haven't gone particularly well for the right-hander in any of his previous stops. For his career he owns a 4.97 FIP and 1.49 WHIP in just shy of 500 innings of work. Take Atlanta -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Los Angeles -1.5 runs over San Francisco at 9:10 pm et on Saturday.

I like the bounce-back spot for the Dodgers here as they send Clayton Kershaw to the hill against the Giants on Saturday. Kershaw will be happy to be facing rival San Francisco, noting that he owns a career 2.01 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in 55 outings against the Giants. His last four starts against them have resulted in Dodgers victories by scores of 7-4, 5-3, 7-3 and most recent 10-5 back on April 12th. Off a one-run performance last night, this is an ideal rebound spot for Los Angeles, noting that it still averages 5.3 runs per game at home this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.4 runs. Take Los Angeles -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Atlanta -1.5 runs over Washington at 7:05 pm et on Thursday.

The Nationals dropped the opener of their three-game series against the White Sox but bounced back by taking the final two games. Washington hasn't had a day off since September 7th and will be right back at it on Thursday as it opens a four-game set against the Braves. Atlanta checks in off another losing series, this one at the hands of the Phillies. Yesterday's defeat came in heart-breaking fashion as the Braves rallied from three runs down to tie the game but ultimately fell in extra innings. I'm confident we'll see left-hander Max Fried guide them out of their slump on Thursday. Fried had his start pushed back due to a blister. A couple of extra days off probably isn't the worst thing at this time of year. While Fried owns an ERA well north of four in 15 career starts against the Nationals, that doesn't tell the whole story. Current Washington hitters have gone a combined 11-for-64 (.172) off of Fried with a grand total of just two extra-base hits. Washington will hand the ball to Jake Irvin. Like a lot of rookie starters, he has labored down the stretch, allowing a whopping 13 walks and nine earned runs over his last four outings. He's never faced any of the current Braves hitters before but I'm willing to bet on Atlanta's loaded lineup inflicting plenty of damage. Atlanta checks in averaging 5.7 runs per game and outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.5 runs on the road this season. While the Braves bullpen has struggled lately, it does enter this series sporting a collective 3.83 ERA and 1.28 WHIP with 27 saves converted and only 10 blown on the road this season. Take Atlanta -1.5 runs (8*).

A.L. Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Houston -1.5 runs over Oakland at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday.

The Astros have continued to scuffle along in this series, dropping the first two games while scoring a grand total of just two runs. I'm confident we see them explode at the plate on Wednesday while starter Hunter Brown bounces back from an ugly outing in his last turn in the starting rotation. Paul Blackburn will take the ball for Oakland. He has pitched well enough for the A's this season and they've actually won seven of his last nine trips to the hill. With that being said, this is a nightmarish matchup for the right-hander. Current Astros hitters have absolutely worn him out going 29-for-101 at the dish including seven home runs (Yordan Alvarez has an eye-popping three home runs in 12 at-bats against him). Blackburn has recorded a less than impressive 18:9 strikeout-to-walk ration against Houston. Also of note, Blackburn will be starting on short rest (four days) after laboring through three innings (six hits and three walks allowed) against the Rangers last time out. As I mentioned, Hunter Brown is in bounce-back mode after getting lit up for six earned runs over 4 1/3 innings against the Padres. He'll be happy to see the A's on Wednesday, noting that he owns a perfect 3-0 team record with a 2.37 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in 19 innings of work against them this season. Brent Rooker is one A's hitter than has gotten to him (3-for-6) but he hasn't had a multi-hit game since August 29th and was relegated to the bench last night. While the Astros bullpen remains in terrific shape having yet to eclipse the 500-inning mark on the season, it's a much different story for Oakland's relief corps. A's relievers have logged a whopping 608 1/3 innings (entering last night's action) this season, recording a 5.70 ERA and 1.62 WHIP away from home. Take Houston -1.5 runs (10*).

A.L. Game of the Month. My selection is on Texas -1.5 runs over Minnesota at 7:15 pm et on Saturday.

The Twins easily disposed of the Rangers by a 5-1 score last night. Max Scherzer was still able to eat six innings for Texas in the loss and the Rangers didn't use any of their best relief arms. That's a positive as it's been 'feast-or-famine' for the Texas bullpen this season, which is why I'm more comfortable backing it at a more reasonable price on the run-line on Saturday. The Rangers have either been able to nail down games, or blow them completely, their really hasn't been much middle ground. But I digress. The real story here is that Dallas Keuchel earned himself another turn in the Twins starting rotation thanks to a terrific performance against the Pirates last time out (6 1/3 innings with no earned runs allowed). That start came at home, where he's been just fine in two outings this season. The road has been another story entirely. Going back to last season, Keuchel has allowed 6, 7, 7, 6, 6, 2 and 8 earned runs in seven road starts. He lasted beyond the fifth inning in only one of those outings. With the Rangers feasting on left-handed starting pitching, to the tune of 6.1 runs per game this season, they're in line for a breakout performance at the plate following a brief slump. Jordan Montgomery will get the start for the Rangers. He's been sharp since coming over in a trade with the Cardinals. He did labor through his most recent outing against these same Twins but still gave up just three earned runs in 5 1/3 innings. I mentioned the inconsistent nature of the Rangers bullpen this season but it's not as if the Twins relief corps has been lights out either. They check in having closed out 15 saves while blowing 12 on the road this season. Take Texas -1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on Cincinnati -1.5 runs over Washington at 4:10 pm et on Saturday.

The Reds blew a late 3-1 lead and ended up dropping a 6-3 decision in extra innings last night. I look for them to bounce back behind impressive rookie Andrew Abbott on Saturday afternoon. Abbott did struggle in his most recent outing but prior to that had held his last three opponents to just two earned runs in 20 innings of work. On the season he owns a 3.90 FIP and 1.03 WHIP. His counterpart on Saturday will be Joan Adon. He's made just two big league appearances this season and they haven't gone well as he has allowed three earned runs on two home runs in only five innings of work. In 64 2/3 innings with Washington last year he logged a 5.11 FIP and 1.78 WHIP. While the Nationals bullpen has pitched better lately and certainly in last night's game, they entered this series sporting a lofty 6.23 ERA and 1.59 WHIP on the road this season. Take Cincinnati -1.5 runs (8*).

National League Game of the Month. My selection is on Cincinnati -1.5 runs over Washington at 6:40 pm et on Friday.

The Reds got their series in Chicago off to a fine start but proceeded to drop the next three games with none of those contests being particularly close. I do like their chances of bouncing back as they return home to host the Nationals on Friday. Washington is admittedly playing well right now and probably would have liked to have gotten right back on the field yesterday but had an off day instead. The starting pitching matchup favors Cincinnati here as it sends a steadily-improving Graham Ashcraft to the hill against Pat Corbin of the Nationals. Ashcraft has been pitching well, holding opponents to two earned runs or less in six straight starts. He owns a 2.08 ERA and 1.21 WHIP over his last three outings. Pat Corbin on the other hand has struggled, allowing 12 earned runs over his last 17 1/3 innings of work, covering a span of three starts. He's seen his FIP rise to 4.99 and his WHIP to 1.53. While the Nationals bullpen has pitched better than that of the Reds lately, there's no question Cincinnati's relief corps has been better this season, particularly at home where it has recorded a collective 3.43 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. Take Cincinnati -1.5 runs (10*).

Interleague Game of the Week. My selection is on Atlanta -1.5 runs over Boston at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday.

The Red Sox took the opener of this brief two-game set in lopsided fashion last night. I look for the Braves to answer back on Wednesday. Spencer Strider will take the ball for Atlanta. He was cruising before giving up a pair of home runs (and four runs) in the seventh inning against Arizona last time out. The Braves still ended up rallying from a 4-1 deficit to win 7-5 on that day. While Strider's last two starts haven't been flawless by any means, he does check in having lasted at least six innings in six consecutive outings, striking out nine or more batters in all six of those contests. He has posted Cy Young Award-caliber numbers this season, logging a 2.88 FIP and 1.09 WHIP. Here, he'll have the advantage of facing the Red Sox for the first time in his career. Note that the bullpen behind Strider should be in good shape after the Braves kept most of their key relief arms idle in last night's blowout defeat. It's a much different story for the Red Sox relief corps as they entered last night's action having worked a collective 36 innings over the last seven games and dealt with another heavy workload on Tuesday with John Schreiber working in an 'opener' role before Nick Pivetta gave them five innings. On the season, Boston has converted only 10 saves while blowing six here at home. Brayan Bello will get the start for the Red Sox on Wednesday. Like Strider, he's been bitten by the long ball recently, giving up six home runs in his last three starts. On the season, Bello owns a 4.36 FIP and 1.22 WHIP. The Braves will actually be getting their second look at the right-hander this season. They mustered only two earned runs on six hits over six innings against him back in May, but it's not as if they were completely baffled, striking out only five times. The Red Sox own a slight 6-5 edge in this series going back to 2021 and it's worth noting that all 11 matchups over that stretch were decided by two runs or more. Take Atlanta -1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on Miami -1.5 runs over Colorado at 1:40 pm et on Sunday.

The Rockies have taken the first two games in this series, adding to the Marlins woes as Miami has now dropped eight straight contests. I look for the Marlins to rebound on Sunday afternoon as they send one of the most underrated starters in baseball to the hill in Jesus Luzardo against Ty Blach of the Rockies. Luzardo didn't have his best stuff last time out against St. Louis but still owns a 3.28 FIP and 1.17 WHIP this season. Keep in mind, this is no one-off as Luzardo also logged a 3.12 FIP and 1.04 WHIP, albeit in only 18 starts, with the Marlins last season. Ty Blach is slated for his first start of the season for the Rockies. He has posted a 5.16 FIP and 1.95 WHIP in seven relief appearances. The Marlins own an advantage in terms of the two bullpens as well even if that hasn't been the case lately. Miami's relief corps did enter yesterday's action having worked 29 2/3 innings fewer collectively on the campaign and it's worth noting that the Rockies have used arguably their best reliever, Daniel Bard, in each of the last two games meaning he's likely unavailable on Sunday. Take Miami -1.5 runs (8*).

A.L. East Game of the Year. My selection is on Tampa Bay -1.5 runs over Baltimore at 4:10 pm et on Saturday.

The Rays got back on track with a low-scoring victory over the Orioles last night and I look for them to pick up right where they left off on Saturday afternoon as they send ace Shane McClanahan to the hill against Grayson Rodriguez of the Orioles. Rodriguez had a nice stretch at the minor league level before getting the call back up to the big club earlier this week. He struggled in his first outing back with the O's, however, allowing four earned runs over five innings in a 6-4 loss to the Dodgers. Rodriguez will be at a disadvantage here as the Rays have already seen him once this season, scoring two earned runs on seven hits against him over 5 2/3 innings back in May. Shane McClanahan will be happy to see Baltimore in the opposing dugout as he owns a career 2.14 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in eight career starts against them. McClanahan is of course enjoying another tremendous campaign having recorded a 3.84 FIP and 1.13 WHIP in 102 innings of work. Behind McClanahan is a Rays bullpen that entered last night's action sporting a collective 0.92 WHIP over the last seven games. While Tampa Bay has been struggling to find the win column it has had little to do with its relief corps. Take Tampa Bay -1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on Atlanta -1.5 runs over Arizona at 12:20 pm et on Thursday.

The Braves are reeling, losers of four games in a row and in danger of being swept by the Diamondbacks (who were just swept themselves in Toronto last weekend) on Thursday afternoon. I expect Atlanta to avoid that fate as they take their frustrations out on D'Backs ace Zac Gallen in this spot. Gallen has been a much different pitcher on the road compared to at home this season, logging a 5.11 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in 10 road outings. I can't help but think we might be seeing some fatigue out of the right-hander as he has topped out at five strikeouts or less in four of his last five starts, allowing 12 earned runs in 25 innings of work over that stretch. Since Gallen held the Braves to one hit over seven shutout innings in his first career start against them in 2021, he has been roughed up for 16 hits in just 11 2/3 innings in his last two outings in the series. Spencer Strider will counter for Atlanta. He wasn't sharp against the White Sox last weekend, allowing five earned runs in six innings in an eventual 6-5 loss. Keep in mind, he's just one start removed from shutting out the Rays over 6 1/3 innings. Atlanta's last eight wins with Strider on the hill have all come by at least two runs. That includes a 5-2 victory over these same D'Backs in Arizona back in the first week of June. While it hasn't mattered much so far in this series, the Braves bullpen does have an edge over that of the D'Backs, with Atlanta relievers logging a collective 3.58 ERA and 1.19 WHIP this season (entering last night's action). Take Atlanta -1.5 runs (8*).

American League Game of the Week. My selection is on Seattle -1.5 runs over Detroit at 4:10 pm et on Sunday.

The Mariners will be happy to have rookie starter Bryce Miller back earlier than expected from a blister as he takes the ball against Reese Olson of the Tigers on Sunday. Seattle will of course be looking to avoid the sweep as it has suffered through a bit of a post-All-Star break hangover. Olson has pitched well for the Tigers, logging a 3.46 FIP and 0.99 WHIP in 33 1/3 innings of work this season. I do wonder how long he can keep up the pace though, noting that he has held opponents to just 6.8 hits per nine innings. This coming after he yielded 10.3 hits per nine innings in 36 2/3 frames of work at the minor league (AAA) level earlier this year. At Toledo he had posted a 6.38 ERA and 1.75 WHIP. Bryce Miller has impressed for the Mariners, entering this start sporting a 3.45 FIP and 0.95 WHIP having allowed just 58-of-231 batters he has faced to reach base. Behind Miller is a Mariners bullpen that had recorded a collective 1.12 ERA and 0.81 WHIP over the last seven games entering last night's contest. The Tigers 'pen has posted a 4.14 ERA and 1.31 WHIP with only 10 saves converted and eight blown on the road this season (also entering last night's action). Take Seattle -1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on San Diego -1.5 runs over New York at 10:10 pm et on Saturday.

The Mets took the opener of this series last night - their sixth straight victory. That win snapped the Padres three-game winning streak. Here, I look for San Diego to bounce back as it sends Blake Snell to the hill against David Peterson in a matchup of left-handers. Peterson has actually pitched reasonably well since returning to the big club. He still owns a 4.60 FIP and 1.67 WHIP on the season and didn't fare much better in his minor league sting, posting a 4.86 ERA and 1.62 WHIP in 37 innings of work. Snell has really turned his season around after a shaky start to the campaign for the Padres. He enters this outing having allowed two earned runs or less in each of his last eight outings, lowering his FIP to 3.78 and his WHIP to 1.26. The two bullpens are virtually a wash on the season. While Mets relievers have pitched better over the last week or so, the Padres 'pen has still proven reliable here at home, boasting a 2.92 ERA and 1.15 WHIP on the season. Take San Diego -1.5 runs (8*).

Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Toronto -1.5 runs over Boston at 1:35 pm et on Sunday.

Kevin Gausman will once again be tasked with lifting the Blue Jays out of a losing streak as he takes the ball against Garrett Whitlock on Sunday afternoon in Toronto. I expect the Jays to bounce back here. Gausman has posted Cy Young Award-caliber numbers this season, logging a 2.55 FIP and 1.13 WHIP in 17 starts spanning 104 2/3 innings of work. His counterpart Whitlock has pitched reasonably well at times but owns a less than impressive 4.31 FIP and 1.32 WHIP. He'll be starting on short rest (four days) after laboring through an ugly 4 2/3 inning outing against the Marlins last time out (he allowed six earned runs on 11 hits). The Jays bullpen holds an advantage in terms of recent performance, noting that they entered yesterday's action sporting a collective 2.25 ERA and 0.96 WHIP over the last seven contests. In stark contrast, the Red Sox 'pen recorded a 5.33 ERA and 1.65 WHIP over the same stretch. Take Toronto -1.5 runs (10*).

American League Game of the Week. My selection is on Texas -1.5 runs over Detroit at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday.

After a red hot start to the season, the Rangers have cooled off considerably - certainly at the plate. I look for them to get the best of the Tigers pitching staff on Wednesday, however. Joey Wentz will get another turn in the Detroit starting rotation out of necessity only. The Tigers are missing a number of regular starters right now, leaving Wentz as one of the only options to hold down one of the five spots. He checks in sporting a 5.46 FIP and 1.58 WHIP on the campaign and will have to face a Rangers club that has feasted on left-handed starting pitching to the tune of a 14-9 record, averaging 6.6 runs per game. To make matters worse, Wentz will be starting on short rest (four days) after an exhausting five-inning effort that saw him allow five hits, two of them home runs, four walks and four runs (three of them earned) against the Twins. The Rangers will be getting their second look at Wentz in less than a month after frustratingly plating just one run on seven hits over 4 2/3 innings against him on May 31st. Dane Dunning will counter for Texas. He is quietly enjoying a fine season, logging a 3.93 FIP and 1.17 WHIP in 71 2/3 innings of work. Dunning has gone winless in his last three outings against the Tigers but all three of those starts came in Detroit. He's faced the Tigers twice in his career here in Texas with the Rangers winning both of those contests by multiple runs. If there's an advantage the Rangers have in the latter innings in this one it's the fact that their bullpen entered last night's contest having worked a collective 64 innings fewer than that of the Tigers this season. Over the last seven games alone Detroit's 'pen had logged 30 innings. With Wednesday's starter Wentz having lasted beyond the fifth inning just once in his last seven outings, it could be another busy night for the Tigers relief corps. Take Texas -1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on Texas -1.5 runs over Detroit at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday.

The Rangers dropped the opener of this series last night - their third straight defeat. I look for them to bounce back on Tuesday, however, as they hand the ball to Martin Perez against Matt Manning of the Tigers. Perez hasn't been able to match the terrific numbers he posted last season, logging a 4.97 FIP and 1.45 WHIP. With that said, he does check in having lasted at least six innings in five of his last seven starts and has given up just five earned runs on seven hits over his last two outings covering a span of 13 innings. Matt Manning will make just his third start of the season for the Tigers. In those two outings he recorded a 7.29 FIP and 1.29 WHIP. He has also pitched just 8 2/3 at the Triple-A level, allowing 16-of-39 batters to reach base while recording a 1.85 WHIP. The two bullpens are virtually a wash in this matchup although the Tigers relief corps has certainly been more taxed lately, logging a collective 30 innings over the last seven games, including 8 1/3 innings last night after starter Matt Boyd was forced to leave due to injury. Take Texas -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Texas -1.5 runs over Detroit at 8:05 pm et on Monday.

The Tigers have been playing reasonably well but I don't believe this is a good matchup at all for them as they head to Texas to face a Rangers club that's coming off back-to-back losses to the Yankees in the Bronx over the weekend. Matt Boyd will get the call for the visiting Tigers. He'll be starting on short rest (four day) which is notable as he has not fared well in that situation this season, allowing 16 earned runs in 22 1/3 innings. Boyd owns a pedestrian 4.25 FIP and 1.32 WHIP in 14 starts spanning 70 1/3 innings this season. While the Tigers bullpen has held up well this season, I do think regression is on the way, noting they've logged 30 innings over the last seven games alone and 303 1/3 innings on the season. That's a full 59 innings more than Texas' relief corps. Speaking of the Rangers 'pen, it has been terrific lately, posting a 2.82 ERA and 1.08 WHIP over the last seven games. Andrew Heaney will start for the Rangers on Monday. He's been good but certainly not great this season. With that being said, he has managed to hold eight straight opponents to three earned runs or less. For whatever reason, the Rangers bats seem to come alive for Heaney here at home, plating double-digit run totals in four of his seven home outings this season. Take Texas -1.5 runs (8*).

Non-Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Seattle -1.5 runs over Chicago at 4:10 pm et on Saturday.

These two teams have split the first two games of this series but I look for the Mariners to answer back in Sunday's series finale. Lance Lynn will get another turn in the starting rotation for the White Sox, despite his struggles. Lynn has been lit up in his last two outings and will now start on short rest (four days') for a third consecutive outing. Lynn has seen his FIP balloon to 5.43 and his WHIP to 1.57 on the campaign. Mariners rookie Bryce Miller got off to a terrific start this season before getting roughed up by the Yankees and Rangers in consecutive outings. He still owns a solid 3.36 FIP and 0.93 WHIP in eight starts this season, spanning 44 1/3 innings. The Mariners bullpen has logged a collective 2.28 ERA and 1.19 WHIP over the last seven contests. Meanwhile, the White Sox 'pen has posted a 4.55 ERA and 1.41 WHIP over the same stretch. In fact, Chicago has blown four saves over the last seven games alone. Take Seattle -1.5 runs (10*).

National League Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles -1.5 runs over Cincinnati at 12:35 pm et on Thursday.

Dodgers starter Clayton Kershaw will be pleased to see the Reds in the opposing dugout on Thursday as he has owned them for years, allowing just four earned runs over 34 innings in his last five starts against them with the Dodgers going a perfect 5-0 in those contests. The fact that Kershaw will be starting on just four days' rest might be somewhat concerning but Los Angeles has gone 3-1 with the veteran lefty starting on short rest this season, with all three of those victories coming by at least four runs. Kershaw has of course been the picture of consistency throughout his career and this season has been no different as he owns a 3.56 FIP and 1.10 WHIP. It's a much different story for his counterpart on Thursday, Graham Ashcraft of the Reds. The right-hander checks in sporting a 5.03 FIP and 1.60 WHIP in 62 1/3 innings of work. He's given up a staggering 27 earned runs over his last four outings. The Dodgers bullpen has been shockingly bad so far this season but I still consider their relief corps to be a positive regression candidate moving forward. The opposite could be said of the Reds, noting that Cincinnati's 'pen entered last night's action with a collective 3.91 ERA and 1.32 WHIP this season. Interestingly, four of the Reds eight blown saves this season have come in afternoon games. Take Los Angeles -1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on Atlanta -1.5 runs over Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Monday.

The Braves got stunned by the A's in the series-opener between these two teams yesterday, dropping a 7-2 decision. I look for them to bounce back on Monday, behind impressive starter Bryce Elder. Elder checks in sporting a 3.46 FIP and 1.17 WHIP in 10 starts, spanning 58 1/3 innings of work. Of the 237 batters he has faced, only 72 have reached base. He'll start on a full five days' rest after taking the ball on short rest in his last outing. While the Braves bullpen has struggled lately, it has held up well on the road this season, posting a collective 2.89 ERA and 1.10 WHIP on the road (entering yesterday's action). J.P. Sears will counter for Oakland. He has actually gone two starts without the A's dropping a decision by multiple runs but Oakland has lost each of his last six outings overall. Sears owns a 5.15 FIP and 1.10 WHIP on the season. He has displayed much better command than we've seen previously in his career, allowing just 1.7 walks per nine innings but will be tested by a Braves lineup that has drawn 178 walks this season (entering Monday's action). Sears hasn't worked beyond the sixth inning in any of his 10 starts this season, leaving the A's poor bullpen likely to make more than a cameo appearance here. Note that Oakland's relief corps has recorded a collective 6.50 ERA and 1.66 WHIP this season with only four saves converted and 10 blown (also entering yesterday's action). Take Atlanta -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Seattle -1.5 runs over Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Wednesday.

The Mariners got a bit of a scare, if you can call it that, from the A's last night as they trailed 2-0 before rallying in the bottom of the fifth inning and ultimately holding on for a 3-2 victory. Sitting in fourth place in the highly-competitive American League West and staring down a tough upcoming schedule that will feature consecutive series' against the Pirates, Yankees and Rangers, it's important that Seattle makes the most of this four-game home series against the lowly A's and so far, so good with two wins in as many tries. Ken Waldichuk will inexplicably get another turn in the A's starting rotation on Wednesday. The left-hander has been every bit as bad as his 6.85 ERA indicates, logging a 7.28 FIP and 1.85 WHIP through nine starts spanning 46 innings of work. Of the 220 batters he has faced, 88 have reached base including a whopping 13 home runs. Things don't figure to get any better here as the Mariners get their second look at him this season and he starts on short rest (four days) for just the third time this season (11 earned runs allowed on 13 hits in 9 1/3 innings in his previous two starts on short rest). Behind Waldichuk is an A's bullpen that continues to struggle, entering last night's action sporting a collective 6.62 ERA and 1.72 WHIP with only four saves converted and nine blown this season. Impressive rookie Bryce Miller will get the start for Seattle. While he will also be starting on just four days' rest, I'm not overly concerned as he did so back on May 7th as well (against a much tougher opponent in the Houston Astros) and allowed only two hits over six shutout innings. Miller's numbers are terrific. He has logged a 1.78 FIP and 0.51 WHIP through his first four big league starts, facing 88 batters and allowing only 13 of them to reach base. What I really like about Miller is that he's shown the ability to work deep into ball games, lasting at least six innings in all four starts to date. The Mariners bullpen behind him, while showing some regression lately, has recorded a collective 3.13 ERA and 1.27 WHIP with 12 saves converted and only six blown this season (entering last night's action). Take Seattle -1.5 runs (8*).

Interleague Game of the Month. My selection is on San Diego -1.5 runs over Kansas City at 9:40 pm et on Monday.

The Padres enter this game on a season-long five-game losing streak following a disheartening sweep at the hands of the division-rival Dodgers in Los Angeles. Their longest previous losing skid lasted only three games (that's happened twice previously this season). I'm confident we'll see them bounce back as they return home to host the Royals on Monday. Interestingly, tonight's starter for San Diego will be Michael Wacha who just happens to be the last starting pitcher to guide them to victory last week in Minnesota. Wacha has been handled well this season as he's yet to make a start on short rest (four days) and won't here either. He's pitched as well as the Padres could have hoped for in the early stages of the season as he has posted a 4.13 FIP and 1.34 WHIP. While he is putting a few too many batters on base for my liking, he's done a better job over his last two starts, yielding just five hits and five walks (and only one earned run) over 12 innings. Wacha's counterpart on Monday will be Brad Keller of the Royals. The other Keller, Mitch, was lights out for the Pirates yesterday and has arguably been one of the best starters in all of baseball over the last month. It's a much different story with Brad. He checks in sporting a 5.39 FIP and 1.77 WHIP having allowed a whopping 72-of-178 batters he has faced to reach base. Note that he'll be making his second straight start on short rest here. Of course, the Royals bullpen hasn't been much better, entering yesterday's action with a collective 5.10 ERA and 1.50 WHIP having converted five saves and blown six. The Padres bullpen hasn't been quite as good as most expected but hasn't been the biggest problem either, logging a collective 3.92 ERA and 1.26 WHIP entering yesterday's contest. Take San Diego -1.5 runs (10*).

American League Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Seattle -1.5 runs over Texas at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday.

The Mariners wasted another terrific outing from Logan Gilbert in a 2-1 loss to the Rangers to open this series last night. Now 4.5 games back of division-leading Texas and looking up at three teams in the American League West standings, I look for Seattle to answer back on Tuesday. Andrew Heaney will get the start for the visiting Rangers. He had an outlier of a season with the Dodgers last year, an injury-shortened one at that, posting a 3.75 FIP and 1.09 WHIP in 72 2/3 innings of work and that earned him a $12 million contract in the offseason. Not surprisingly, he hasn't been able to reach the same heights back in the American League this year, logging a 6.18 FIP and 1.30 WHIP through six starts spanning 29 1/3 innings. The Mariners will likely be happy to see their old friend (Heaney spent the majority of his career with the division-rival Angels), noting that they're 8-7 all time against him as he has recorded a lofty 4.52 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. George Kirby will counter for Seattle. After finishing sixth in American League Rookie of the Year voting last season he's picked up right where he left off here in 2023. Kirby checks in sporting a 3.05 FIP and 0.98 WHIP, allowing just 39-of-148 batters he has faced to reach base so far this season. Note that he's faced the Rangers four times previously with Seattle going a perfect 4-0 with three of those wins coming by two runs or more. While it didn't play out that way last night, the two bullpens in this matchup entered the series heading in opposite directions with the Rangers 'pen having logged a collective 5.40 ERA and 1.57 WHIP over its last seven games and the Mariners relief corps' having posted a 1.87 ERA and 1.13 WHIP over the same stretch. Rather than lay the considerable chalk with the Mariners here, we'll sacrifice a run and back them on the run-line, noting that 13 of their 17 victories this season have come by two runs or more. Take Seattle -1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on Kansas City -1.5 runs over Oakland at 7:10 pm et on Saturday.

The A's took a wild one in the series-opener between these basement-dwelling clubs last night. I expect the Royals to answer back on Saturday. Ken Waldichuk will take the ball for Oakland, giving the Royals the opportunity to face a southpaw starter for the second straight game after seeing Kyle Muller last night. Note that Kansas City is averaging 4.7 runs per game against left-handed starting pitching this season, nearly a full run higher than its season scoring average. Waldichuk has been every bit as bad as his 7.26 ERA indicates, sporting a 7.40 FIP and 1.65 WHIP in six starts spanning 31 innings of work this season. Behind him is a majors-worst bullpen that has logged a collective 6.80 ERA and 1.74 WHIP with only three saves converted and nine blown. Brady Singer will counter for Kansas City. He's had an up-and-down start to the 2023 campaign after pitching well for the Royals last season (3.58 FIP and 1.14 WHIP in 153 1/3 innings pitched in 2022). Singer has been marginally better than his inflated 8.49 ERA indicates this season, posting a 5.05 FIP and 1.52 WHIP (still ugly numbers, I know). After turning in arguably his best start of the young season in Arizona two outings back, he made his next appearance on short (four days) rest in Minnesota and proceeded to get shelled for eight earned runs in just 2 2/3 innings. He's back on schedule here, pitching on full (five days) rest and facing an A's lineup that has just one hitter that has seen him before (Tony Kemp - 0-for-9 career against Singer). Two other A's, Seth Brown and Aledmys Diaz, have worn Singer out in the past but both are currently sidelined due to injury. The Royals bullpen has been almost as bad as that of the A's so far this season. However, on a positive note, they kept a number of their key relievers idle in last night's defeat. I mentioned Oakland's penchant for collapsing late with nine blown saves already this season. In stark contrast, the Royals have converted five saves while blowing only four. While Kansas City has just two home victories to its credit this season, both came by multiple runs. On the flip side, nine of the A's 11 road defeats have come by at least two runs with seven of those coming by four runs or more. Take Kansas City -1.5 runs (8*).

A.L. Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Seattle -1.5 runs over Oakland at 3:35 pm et on Thursday.

Mariners starter George Kirby was a hard-luck loser in his most recent outing, working eight dominant innings against the Phillies but ultimately falling short in a 1-0 defeat. His 2-2 record through five starts overshadows just how effective he's been in his second big league season. Kirby checks in sporting a terrific 2.93 ERA but he's arguably been even better than that, logging a 2.61 FIP and 0.95 WHIP in 30 2/3 innings of work. Of the 120 batters he has faced, only 31 have reached base, including just a single home run allowed and a ridiculous two walks issued. While Kirby's results against the A's were a mixed bag in four starts last season (ERA north of four), most of the damage was done by players no longer on the A's roster (Sean Murphy and Stephen Vogt in particular). His counterpart on Thursday will be Drew Rucinski. The right-hander likely wouldn't be starting in most other big league rotations but such is the state of the A's pitching staff. Rucinski checks in sporting a 5.83 FIP and 2.12 WHIP in just 5 2/3 innings of work. I realize we're talking about a small sample size but the fact that 12 of the 28 batters he has faced have reached base is alarming. Also note that prior to getting called up, Rucinski had posted a 6.52 ERA and 1.76 WHIP in 9 2/3 innings at the minor league level this season. Prior to that, he hadn't pitched with any major league organization since he was a member of the Marlins back in 2018. Of course, it's the A's bullpen that is even more concerning. Oakland relievers have combined to post a 7.07 ERA and 1.79 WHIP this season with only three saves converted and a whopping nine blown. Contrast that with the Mariners 'pen, which has logged a collective 2.81 ERA and 1.26 WHIP with those numbers lowering to 1.21 and 1.12, respectively, over the last seven games. Seattle relievers have combined to close out 10 saves while blowing just four. Take Seattle -1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on Cleveland -1.5 runs over Colorado at 6:10 pm et on Tuesday.

The Rockies took the opener of this series last night and it wasn't particularly close as they jumped ahead 6-0 before the end of the fifth inning and never looked back. The Guardians have admittedly been stumbling lately but I do see this as an ideal bounce-back spot on Tuesday. Ryan Feltner will take the ball for Colorado. He hasn't been quite as bad as his six-plus ERA would indicate but he hasn't been good either. Feltner checks in sporting a 4.69 FIP and 1.68 WHIP, allowing 32-of-88 batters to reach base. As I've noted on multiple occasions this season, the Guardians have the type of lineup that puts a ton of pressure on opposing pitchers - especially those that tend to play with fire and put men on base consistently. Note that Cleveland boasts an incredible five players ranked in the top-15 in baseball (including ties) in stolen bases this season. The Rockies bullpen held up well late night but didn't face much pressure either. Entering this series, Colorado's 'pen had logged a 4.50 ERA and 1.47 WHIP while being forced to work a whopping 90 innings collectively. Rookie Peyton Battenfield will get his third start of the campaign for the Guardians. More has been asked of him due to injuries in Cleveland's starting rotation and the rookie starter has taken advantage. He enters Tuesday's outing sporting a 3.88 FIP and 0.94 WHIP in 10 2/3 innings of work. Of the 41 batters Battenfield has faced, only 10 have reached base. A closer look into Battenfield's background shows that he posted a solid 3.63 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 28 starts at the Triple-A level last season. It's been a steady ascension through the Guardians' minor league system for the right-hander and he certainly appears ready for the opportunity to pitch at this level. Of course, Cleveland owns one of the best bullpens in baseball, even if its numbers have been rather pedestrian so far this season. The Guardians relief corps' has posted a collective 3.47 ERA and 1.16 WHIP with nine saves converted and four blown here in 2023 (entering last night's action). They kept most of their key arms idle thanks to the lopsided result last night, including setup man James Karinchak and closer Emmanuel Clase. Take Cleveland -1.5 runs (8*).

Interleague Game of the Month. My selection is on Minnesota -1.5 runs over Washington at 2:10 pm et on Sunday.

We resisted the temptation to back the Twins on the run-line yesterday after they dropped the opener of this series on Friday night, thankfully so as they got drilled in the second game of this series. They'll look to avoid the unlikely series sweep at the hands of the Nationals on Sunday afternoon and I'm confident they can do just that in convincing fashion. Patrick Corbin will get another turn in the Washington rotation, despite his struggles continuing in the early going this season. Corbin has been just about as bad as his 6.30 ERA indicates, recording a 4.91 FIP and 1.75 WHIP while allowing 35-of-96 batters to reach base. I do think the Twins have a similar lineup to the Guardians in terms of their speed and aggressiveness on the basepaths and that particular order gave him plenty of trouble in his most recent start. The presence of Bailey Ober on the mound for the Twins may give some bettors pause but I'm not sure that it should. Ober quietly recorded a 2.92 FIP and 1.05 WHIP in 11 starts spanning 56 innings of work last season but was the odd man out in terms of the Twins rotation to start this season after the acquisition of Pablo Lopez. Due to injuries, there is an opportunity for Ober to perhaps stick at the big league level for a bit should he perform well here. Note that the right-hander had been pitching well at Triple-A, posting a 2.55 ERA and 1.08 WHIP, not to mention a 22:6 strikeout-to-walk ratio through 17 2/3 innings this season. The Nationals bullpen has actually outperformed that of the Twins so far this season, but similar to what I alluded to in my Dodgers-Cubs writeup yesterday, I would anticipate that script flipping as the season goes on. Note that the Minnesota 'pen is still one of the fresher relief corps' in baseball having only logged a collective 69 innings this season. Thanks to the lopsided nature of yesterday's game, the Twins were able to keep their key relievers off the mound with recent call-up Simeon Woods Richardson logging a key 4 2/3 innings in relief in Saturday's contest. Take Minnesota -1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on New York -1.5 runs over Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Friday.

The A's actually had a bit of an offensive explosion over the final three games of their series in Baltimore but managed just one victory. Here, I look for the Oakland offense to go back in the tank as it returns home to cavernous O.co Coliseum to host the Mets. Kodai Senga will get his third big league start for the Mets. While his command hasn't necessarily been there just yet (six walks through 11 1/3 innings, there's no question he has been impressive, posting a 3.66 FIP and 1.06 WHIP, striking out 11.1 batters per nine innings. His counterpart on Friday will be James Kaprielian. I question whether the A's right-hander is long for a big league rotation at this point. He's been in the majors full-time since 2021 and has logged a 4.72 FIP and 1.32 WHIP. The book is effectively out on Kaprielian and I look for the Mets to be next in line to take advantage on Friday. Behind Kaprielian is an A's bullpen that doesn't even get a chance to catch its breath after another wild, high-scoring game in Baltimore yesterday. The A's have already logged 55 innings in relief, posting a collective 5.24 ERA and 1.47 WHIP and lost an arm to injury in Domingo Acevedo during the series in Baltimore. New York's 'pen is still missing closer Edwin Diaz but has been impressive nonetheless, recording a 3.72 ERA and 1.04 WHIP with three saves converted and none blown. Take New York -1.5 runs (8*).

N.L. Non-Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Milwaukee -1.5 runs over Arizona at 7:40 pm et on Monday.

I understand the hesitation to lay an extra run with a Brewers team that has had a tough enough time simply winning games lately, let alone by margin. With that being said, I like the spot on Monday as the Brew Crew look to bounce back from consecutive one-run losses against the Marlins as they host a D'Backs club simply playing out the string on the final stop of this road trip that has already taken them to Houston and San Francisco. Brewers starter Brandon Woodruff has supplanted Corbin Burnes as the team's 'ace', reeling off a stretch of four consecutive incredible outings. Over that stretch, Woodruff has allowed just four earned runs on 18 hits while striking out 42 and walking only five in 26 innings of work. Arizona will counter with rookie left-hander Tommy Henry. He got off to a reasonably solid start this season but the wheels have since come off as he's been tagged for 17 earned runs on 20 hits over his last three starts, covering a span of just 13 innings. Behind Henry is a D'Backs bullpen that has posted a 5.96 ERA and 1.54 WHIP over the last seven games. Noting that the Brewers have won each of Woodruff's last three starts by 3+ runs, I'm comfortable backing them on the run-line here. Take Milwaukee -1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on Seattle -1.5 runs over Kansas City at 7:10 pm et on Saturday.

The Royals took the opener of this series last night, their fourth consecutive win. The Mariners have been stumbling lately but we've picked our spots wisely backing them and we'll do so again here with Logan Gilbert on the mound against Kris Bubic. Gilbert is in terrific form, having allowed just two earned runs over his last four starts, covering a span of 23 innings. The Mariners last three victories with Gilbert starting have come by seven, three and eight-run margins. It's been a much different story for Kris Bubic of the Royals. He has allowed 10 earned runs over his last two outings. He checks in with an 8.36 ERA and 2.00 WHIP over his last three starts. The Royals have dropped his last seven starts with all seven of those losses coming by 2+ runs and the last three by three runs or more. Take Seattle -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Los Angeles -1.5 runs over Arizona at 10:10 pm et on Thursday.

The D'Backs have surprisingly come back with consecutive wins over the Dodgers after opening the series with two straight losses. Here, I look for Los Angeles to answer back in the finale of an extended five-game set. To say that Dodgers starter Julio Urias has owned the D'Backs over the course of his career would be an understatement. He has posted a sparkling 1.59 ERA and 0.78 WHIP in seven outings against them with the Dodgers going 6-1 in those games. All six of those victories have come by 2+ runs. D'Backs starter Zac Gallen actually outdueled Urias in a previous matchup back in late April this season. Gallen didn't allow a run over six innings while Urias gave up a solo home run in an eventual 3-1 Arizona win. I look for Urias and the Dodgers to get an ounce of revenge here, noting that Gallen will be starting on four days' rest after allowing five earned runs over his last two starts, covering a span of 11 1/3 innings. While the D'Backs bullpen has held up reasonably well over the last couple of nights, it still entered last night's contest having converted just 17 saves while blowing 13 on the road this season, posting a collective 4.79 ERA and 1.40 WHIP along the way. The Los Angeles relief corps entered last night's game having logged a 3.39 ERA and 1.11 WHIP while making good on 23 saves and blowing only nine at home this season. Take Los Angeles -1.5 runs (8*).

A.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on Seattle -1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 4:05 pm et on Monday.

The Mariners have inexplicably dropped the first three games of this series and while the Angels would like nothing better than to play spoiler against their division rivals in Monday afternoon's series-finale, I expect Seattle to have other ideas. The Mariners have the right pitcher on the mound to stem the tide in Logan Gilbert. He's arguably been their best starter all season, checking in with a 3.46 FIP and 1.21 WHIP while holding opponents to just under 3.5 runs per nine innings. Note that the Mariners are 4-1 in Gilbert's five career outings against the Angels with three of those wins coming by at least two runs. Jose Suarez will counter for Los Angeles. He owns a 4.02 FIP and 1.28 WHIP while yielding north of 3.9 runs per nine innings. The Mariners chased him after 5 1/3 innings in an 8-2 win here in Anaheim back on August 16th. While things have gone well for the Angels in this series, their bullpen still entered yesterday's action sporting a 6.29 ERA and 1.60 WHIP over the last seven games. The Mariners 'pen went into Sunday's contest with a 3.56 ERA and 1.17 WHIP with 20 saves converted and only six blown on the road this season. Take Seattle -1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on Chicago -1.5 runs over Detroit at 6:10 pm et on Saturday.

The Tigers had arguably their most favorable starting pitching matchup of this series last night and took advantage in a 3-2 victory. As much as they'd like to play spoiler again on Saturday, I expect the White Sox to answer back. Johnny Cueto will take the ball for Chicago. He's enjoyed a 'turn back the clock' season of sorts but certainly didn't have his best stuff in a blowout loss against the A's in Oakland last time out. This is the type of big game the Sox brought the veteran in for and I expect him to pitch well, noting he owns a 2.30 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 11 previous road starts this season. The last time he faced Detroit back in early July he tossed eight shutout innings in one of his best outings of the season. Left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez will counter for the Tigers. He has labored through 13 starts this season, posting a 4.50 ERA and 1.57 WHIP. Over his last three outings he has been tagged for 13 earned runs in 16 innings, yielding five home runs over that stretch. He was ineffective in his lone previous start against Chicago this season, giving up three earned runs while lasting only four innings. Noting that each of the White Sox last six victories has come by 2+ runs, I'm comfortable laying the extra run here. Take Chicago -1.5 runs (8*).

N.L. East Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta -1.5 runs over Philadelphia at 7:20 pm et on Friday.

The Braves have lost four of their last five games but they had the benefit of an off-day following a long road trip yesterday and I expect them to right the ship on Friday against division-rival Philadelphia. N.L. Cy Young candidate Max Fried would seem to be the right guy to have on the mound to start the turn-around. Fried checks in with a 2.42 ERA and 1.13 WHIP with the Braves winning 11 of his 16 home starts this season. The last time he pitched against Philadelphia, the Braves fell by a 6-4 score on the road. It was still a fine outing for Fried as he allowed just three earned runs while striking out eight and not walking a single batter over six innings. His counterpart on Friday will be fellow left-hander Ranger Suarez of the Phillies. He's had an up-and-down season and should be in tough here as the Braves get their fourth look at him, having already plated 12 runs in 16 innings against him this season. Note that of Suarez's nine team losses this season, eight of them have come by multiple runs. The only one that didn't was a game where Philadelphia didn't score a run in a 1-0 defeat against Cincinnati. The Braves two previous victories against Suarez this season came by scores of 8-4 and 4-1. Take Atlanta -1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on New York -1.5 runs over Chicago at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday.

The Mets have inexplicably dropped the first two games against a Cubs team that is simply playing out the string at this point. I'm confident we'll see them answer back on Wednesday. Drew Smyly will take the ball for Chicago. He's coming off one of his best starts of the season, tossing seven innings of one-run ball against the Giants. Consistency hasn't been his calling card, however, noting that he was tagged for seven earned runs in just 2 1/3 innings against the Cardinals in the start previous to that. In 12 nighttime starts this season, the Cubs have won just twice and Smyly has recorded a 4.71 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. David Peterson will counter for New York. He's coming off a shaky outing against the Mets, allowing three earned runs in only 3 2/3 innings. There's still a lot to like about Peterson as he's allowed just one home run in his last six starts. In his lone previous outing against the Cubs this season he didn't allow an earned run over five innings, striking out eight along the way. Noting that the Mets last five wins have come by 4, 4, 10, 8 and 6 runs, I'm comfortable laying the extra run with the Mets here. Take New York -1.5 runs (8*).

N.L. Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta -1.5 runs over San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Tuesday.

The Giants got past the Braves by a 3-2 score last night, taking advantage of an off night from the Atlanta offense. Here, I look for the visiting Braves to answer back and bring an end to their three-game slide. As I've talked about all season long, Braves starter Kyle Wright is one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball. With that being said, he's coming off his worst outing of the season last week against the A's. He also struggled in his lone previous start against the Giants this season. Noting that he has posted a 3.69 FIP and 1.15 WHIP while allowing only 3.4 runs per nine innings this season, I'm confident he'll make the necessary adjustments and bounce back here. Jakob Junis will counter for the Giants. He's labored through his last two starts, lasting just 4 1/3 innings in each outing. He checks in with a 3.82 FIP and 1.18 WHIP while allowing just shy of 4.1 runs per nine innings this season. The Giants bullpen held up well last night but still owns a less than impressive 4.12 ERA and 1.36 WHIP at home this season. The Braves 'pen on the other hand has posted a 3.27 ERA and 1.18 WHIP while converting 26 saves and blowing only nine on the road. Take Atlanta -1.5 runs (10*).

Interleague Game of the Week. My selection is on Chicago -1.5 runs over Colorado at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday.

The hard-charging White Sox still believe they have a shot at the postseason but this is precisely the type of matchup they'll need to take advantage of if they're to play their way into October. The Rockies are coming off a 4-2 homestand but the road hasn't been kind to them this season (that's nothing new). Colorado checks in a woeful 21-46 away from home this season where it has been outscored by 2.1 runs per game. Chad Kuhl will get the start for the visiting Rockies. He had a solid start to his Rockies tenure earlier this season but the wheels have since fallen off. Kuhl owns an ugly 6.29 ERA and 1.65 WHIP in 13 road starts, averaging fewer than five innings per outing. That spells trouble when you consider Colorado's bullpen has posted a collective 5.27 ERA and 1.54 WHIP over the last seven games. Michael Kopech hasn't been much better for Chicago but at least he's pitched well here at home where he owns a 2.97 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in 12 starts. Behind him is a White Sox bullpen that has posted a collective 1.20 WHIP over the last seven contests. Take Chicago -1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on Atlanta -1.5 runs over Colorado at 7:20 pm et on Wednesday.

We’ll continue to fade Rockies starter Ryan Feltner, despite the fact that the Rockies have managed to split his last four outings.

Feltner checks in with a 4.92 FIP and 1.42 WHIP while allowing 6.16 runs per nine innings on the season.

His counterpart on Wednesday will be Kyle Wright, who I consider to be one of the most underrated starters in baseball this year. Wright owns a 3.56 FIP and 1.13 WHIP while holding the opposition to just 3.17 runs per nine innings.

The bullpen matchup goes to the Braves in this one as well as their relief corps has been terrific at home this season while the Rockies ‘pen has been a disaster (as usual) on the road. Take Atlanta -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on St. Louis -1.5 runs over Cincinnati at 6:40 pm et on Wednesday.

We’ll back the Cardinals on Wednesday as they hand the ball to Jose Quintana against Mike Minor of the Reds.

Quintana has enjoyed a ‘turn back the clock’ type of season, posting a 3.28 FIP and 1.32 WHIP while allowing just shy of 4.0 runs per nine innings.

It’s been a much different story for Minor as he has labored through the 2022 campaign, recording a 5.89 FIP and 1.54 WHIP while getting tagged for 6.55 runs per nine frames.

As far as recent form goes, the bullpen matchup is fairly even. With that being said, the Cards certainly have the superior stable of relief arms and I’m confident they can put this one away. Take St. Louis -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Milwaukee -0.5 runs first five innings over Pittsburgh at 2:10 pm et on Wednesday.

The Brewers own a considerable starting pitching edge in this matchup.

Pirates starter Zach Thompson has been awful this season, logging a 5.33 FIP and 1.54 WHIP while allowing 5.85 runs per nine innings.

Meanwhile, Freddy Peralta has battled through injuries and as a result has only pitched 63 1/3 innings for the Brewers, but he’s fared well when he’s been out there, posting a 2.97 FIP and 1.07 WHIP while yielding only 3.69 runs per nine frames.

The Pirates actually have the stronger bullpen, in terms of recent form anyway, so there’s no real edge for the Brew Crew in the later innings. We’ll back them in the first five innings only as a result. Take Milwaukee -0.5 runs first five innings (8*).

A.L. Central Game of the Month. My selection is on Kansas City +0.5 runs first five innings over Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday.

You could certainly make the argument that the Royals are the superior team in this matchup based on recent form. It's not an argument at all as to who the better starting pitcher is in this matchup, at least this season, as Brady Singer has been a pleasant surprise for Kansas City while Lucas Giolito has fallen flat on his face for the White Sox.

Singer enters this start sporting a 3.55 FIP and 1.11 WHIP while allowing just north of 3.3 runs per nine innings this season. He just faced the White Sox on August 9th, giving up only one earned run over 7 1/3 innings of work. For his career, he has posted a 3.05 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in seven outings against Chicago.

We'll back the Royals in the first five innings only here as their bullpen continues to struggle and is quite simply among the worst in the league in most categories.

Lucas Giolito owns a 4.09 FIP and 1.50 WHIP while yielding north of 5.4 runs per nine innings for the White Sox this season. While he is coming off one of his best outings of the season, that's not saying much as he gave up one earned run on four hits while striking out only three and walking two in 6 1/3 innings against the Orioles last time out. In two previous starts against Kansas City this season, Giolito has allowed four earned runs in 10 innings. Take Kansas City +0.5 runs first five innings (10*).

My selection is on Atlanta -1.5 runs over Colorado at 7:20 pm et on Tuesday.

With the Braves coming off consecutive losses and favorites getting roasted across the board last night, I can understand the hesitancy to back Atlanta here. I won't shy away, however, as the Braves have a considerable starting pitching edge that should contribute to a comfortable, bounce-back victory.

Jose Urena will get the start for the visiting Rockies. To say that his 2022 campaign hasn't gone well would be an understatement. Urena checks in with a 5.65 FIP and 1.67 WHIP while allowing 6.9 runs per nine innings. The Braves actually got two looks at Urena two seasons ago, plating seven earned runs in only 11 innings.

Atlanta will turn to its ace, Max Fried, on Tuesday. He's posted Cy Young Award-caliber numbers this season, a 2.55 FIP and 1.02 WHIP while giving up only 2.7 runs per nine innings. Note that he faced the Rockies once previously this year and went eight shutout innings, on the road no less.

While the Braves bullpen has struggled a bit lately, a return home should help matters, noting that Atlanta's relief corps owns a collective 3.35 ERA and 1.18 WHIP here at Truist Park this season. Meanwhile, the Rockies 'pen checks in with a 5.41 ERA and 1.59 WHIP away from home. Take Atlanta -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on St. Louis -0.5 runs first five innings over Cincinnati at 6:40 pm et on Monday.

We settled for a push with the Cardinals in the first five innings against Atlanta last night. Here, I won't hesitate to go back to the well, this time laying the half-run as St. Louis travels to Cincinnati to open a series against the Reds.

Miles Mikolas will be looking for revenge after struggling in his most recent start against Cincinnati. On the season, he's been terrific, posting a 3.72 FIP and 1.02 WHIP while allowing just shy of 3.7 runs per nine innings.

My concern with the Cardinals is their bullpen as it entered last night's action sporting a collective ERA north of six and a WHIP approaching 1.50 over the last seven games. The Reds 'pen had recorded a 3.04 ERA and 1.31 WHIP over the same stretch.

Cincinnati will give newly-signed Chase Anderson the start on Monday. He's struggled in the minors with Tigers and Rays affiliates, posting a 4.50 ERA and 1.33 WHIP while allowing 1.8 home runs per nine innings. Keep in mind, in 48 innings with the Phillies last season, Anderson posted a 5.86 FIP and 1.48 WHIP. He draws a tough matchup in the hot-hitting Cardinals on Monday. Take St. Louis -0.5 runs first five innings (8*).

My selection is on Houston -0.5 runs first five innings over Baltimore at 2:10 pm et on Sunday.

The Astros have inexplicably dropped the first two games of this series but I look for them to answer back, at least early on in Sunday's series-finale. We'll back them in the first five innings only as they have a considerable starting pitching advantage but there's not much of a disparity between the two bullpens, so no real edge in the later innings.

Austin Voth will get the start for Baltimore. He checks in having posted a 4.04 FIP and 1.44 WHIP while allowing 5.1 runs per nine innings. Note that he's lasted six innings just once in his 11 starts this season.

Houston will counter with its ace, Justin Verlander. He sports a 2.77 FIP and 0.85 WHIP while allowing only 2.36 runs per nine innings. Verlander barely broke a sweat in his most recent outing, tossing six innings of no-hit ball against the Twins. Take Houston -0.5 runs first five innings (8*).

A.L. Game of the Week. My selection is on Toronto -1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 1:35 pm et on Sunday.

The Blue Jays have been blanked in the first two games of this series bringing an end to what was a terrific run over the previous week. Here, I do look for Toronto to salvage the series-finale, and do so in convincing fashion.

Tucker Davidson will get another turn in the rotation for the Angels. Things haven't gone particularly well for him this season as he sports a 5.63 FIP and 1.75 WHIP while allowing 6.23 runs per nine innings. He's not really fooling any opposing hitters, having topped out at three strikeouts in his six previous starts this season.

Ross Stripling will counter for Toronto. He's been their most reliable starter this season, entering Sunday's start with a 2.80 FIP and 1.04 WHIP while allowing only 3.22 runs per nine innings. The Jays have been bitten by the long ball in this series but Stripling has done an excellent job of keeping the ball in the park, yielding just 0.6 home runs per nine innings.

The bullpens are virtually a wash based on recent form. I feel Toronto has enough of a starting pitching edge to warrant backing them on the run-line here. Take Toronto -1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on New York -1.5 runs over Colorado at 7:10 pm et on Friday.

The Mets will once again have a significant edge on the mound on Friday as they send Chris Bassitt against Chad Kuhl, who makes his return from the I.L. for the Rockies.

Bassitt enters with a 3.53 FIP and 1.13 WHIP while holding opponents to just shy of 3.4 runs per nine innings. Over his last four starts, Bassitt has yielded only two earned runs in 26 innings of work. Behind Bassitt is a Mets bullpen that came into this series sporting a 2.46 ERA and 1.18 WHIP over the last seven games.

Kuhl gave up four walks and three hits over five innings (while striking out six) in a minor league rehab stint. In the bigs this season he has recorded a 5.22 FIP and 1.52 WHIP while giving up 5.5 runs per nine innings.

The Rockies bullpen continues to struggle, logging a 6.30 ERA and 1.43 WHIP over the last seven contests (entering this series). Take New York -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on New York -1.5 runs over Colorado at 7:10 pm et on Thursday.

This is a mismatch from all angles as the Mets send Jacob deGrom to the hill against Ryan Feltner of the Rockies.

deGrom has had electric stuff since returning to the Mets starting rotation, posting a 0.63 FIP and 0.51 WHIP in four starts, spanning 23 1/3 innings of work. He’s giving up just north of 2.3 runs per nine innings.

Behind deGrom is a Mets bullpen that has been in fine form recently, recording a collective 2.46 ERA and 1.18 WHIP over the last seven games.

Feltner has had plenty of ups and downs for the Rockies this season, with more downs than ups. He sports a 4.79 FIP and 1.39 WHIP while yielding just shy of 6.2 runs per nine frames.

The Rockies bullpen is among the worst in the league seemingly every year and 2022 has been no different. The Colorado relief corps checks in with a collective 5.92 ERA and 1.52 WHIP over the last seven contests, entering yesterday’s action. Take New York -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Philadelphia -0.5 runs first five innings over Cincinnati at 7:05 pm et on Thursday.

I’ll gladly back the Phillies laying the half-run in the first five innings only on Thursday as they send Aaron Nola to the mound against Justin Dunn of the Reds.

Dunn has yet to figure it out at the big league level, recording an 8.52 FIP and 1.73 WHIP in limited action (13 1/3 innings) with the Reds this season. This is his fourth big league season after spending three years with the Mariners and his career FIP and WHIP are 5.94 and 1.40, respectively.

It’s a different story for Phillies starter Aaron Nola, who is often overshadowed by Zack Wheeler at the top of the rotation. Nola has posted a 2.76 FIP and 0.96 WHIP this season, yielding just 3.31 runs per nine innings.

We’ll avoid backing the Phillies in the full game as their bullpen continues to struggle, entering yesterday’s action sporting a collective 5.64 ERA and 1.70 WHIP over the last seven games. Take Philadelphia -0.5 runs first five innings (8*).

My selection is on Seattle -0.5 runs first five innings over Washington at 4:10 pm et on Wednesday.

The early stages of this game should be no contest based on the Mariners starting pitching advantage with impressive rookie George Kirby taking the ball against veteran Anibal Sanchez of the Nationals.

Kirby has posted a 3.38 FIP and 1.20 WHIP while allowing just shy of 3.9 runs per nine innings for the Mariners this season. The reason we’ll back the Mariners in the first five innings only here is their considerable starting pitching advantage, whereas the Nats bullpen has been terrific lately and could hold its own late.

Sanchez is having a brutal campaign, recording a 7.17 FIP and 1.46 WHIP while yielding just under 6.7 runs per nine innings. He's allowing a whopping 2.8 home runs per nine innings. Take Seattle -0.5 runs first five innings (8*).

My selection is on Detroit +0.5 runs first five innings over San Francisco at 1:10 pm et on Wednesday.

This starting pitching matchup is closer to even than most bettors likely believe as the Giants hand the ball to Logan Webb against Matt Manning of the Tigers. With Detroit’s bullpen struggling, we’ll back it in the first five innings only here.

Webb owns a 3.28 FIP and 1.18 WHIP while allowing 3.43 runs per nine innings this season. His counterpart, Matt Manning, checks in with a 3.74 FIP and 1.16 WHIP while giving up just 2.81 runs per nine innings, albeit with a smaller sample size. I will point out that Manning has posted a sub-3.00 ERA at the AAA level this season.

Note that the Giants average just 4.3 runs per game against right-handed starting pitching this season (entering last night’s action) compared to their season scoring average of 4.5 rpg. Take Detroit +0.5 runs first five innings (8*).

My selection is on Houston -0.5 runs first five innings over Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday.

The Twins inexplicably dropped three games in a row against the Rangers over the last three days and now face the unenviable task of heading to Houston to face Justin Verlander and the Astros on Tuesday.

Aaron Sanchez will get the start for the visiting Twins. He was effective in his lone outing since joining Minnesota, that coming back on August 1st against the light-hitting Tigers. Note that in a minor league stint with the Twins AAA affiliate, St. Paul, Sanchez recorded an unimpressive 3.80 ERA and 1.23 WHIP, striking out just over 6.0 batters per nine innings. In the majors this year, Sanchez owns a 4.93 FIP and 1.68 WHIP while allowing a whopping 7.93 runs per nine innings.

Verlander hasn't had his best stuff over his last two outings but he certainly wasn't awful, yielding six earned runs in 13 innings. Note that he'll be starting on six days' rest on Tuesday which should be beneficial considering he's logged 143 innings this season. Verlander owns a 2.88 FIP and 0.88 WHIP on the season, allowing just 2.45 runs per nine innings.

We'll lay the half-run with the Astros in the first five innings only here as their bullpen has been awful lately, posting a collective 7.16 ERA and 2.14 WHIP over the last seven games. In stark contrast, the Twins 'pen owns a 1.95 ERA and 1.26 WHIP over that stretch. Take Houston -0.5 runs first five innings (8*).

My selection is on Atlanta -1.5 runs over Pittsburgh at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday.

I really like the way this one sets up for the Braves as they send their ace Max Fried to the hill against JT Brubaker of the Pirates.

Fried is having a Cy Young Award-caliber season having posted a 2.49 FIP and 1.05 WHIP while allowing just 2.79 runs per nine innings. He can get a leg up on another leading Cy Young candidate in Max Scherzer after the Mets right-hander suffered a loss against the Yankees last night. Interestingly, Fried has opposed Brubaker twice before in his career, including earlier this season, with the Braves winning both of those games by a combined 10-2 margin.

Brubaker checks in with a 3.67 FIP and 1.43 WHIP on the campaign. He has allowed just shy of 4.9 runs per nine innings. Note that Brubaker gives up 1.5 more hits, 0.5 more home runs and 1.9 more walks per nine innings compared to Fried this season.

The bullpens are 'no contest' based on recent form as the Atlanta 'pen has posted a collective 2.70 ERA and 1.11 WHIP over the last seven games while the Pittsburgh relief corps has recorded a 6.59 ERA and 1.54 WHIP over the same stretch, entering last night's action. Take Atlanta -1.5 runs (8*).

N.L. Non-Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Philadelphia -0.5 runs first five innings over Cincinnati at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday.

We actually missed with the Phillies in this same starting pitching matchup last week in Cincinnati but I won't hesitate to go back to the well again here, albeit backing Philadelphia laying a half-run in the first five innings only this time around.

Nick Lodolo will look to build off of his seven shutout innings he tossed against the Phillies last time out. That start came at home. The road hasn't been so kind to the rookie left-hander as he checks in with an 8.48 ERA and 2.06 WHIP in three outings away from home this season. On the campaign, Lodolo owns a pedestrian 4.12 FIP and 1.57 WHIP while giving up 4.45 runs per nine innings.

Ranger Suarez is having another fine season for the Phillies. He sports a 3.68 FIP and 1.29 WHIP while allowing 3.86 runs per nine innings. Note that the Reds average 4.1 runs per game against left-handed starting pitching this season (compared to their season scoring average of 4.3 rpg) and just 3.6 runs per game on the road, entering last night's action.

We'll play the first five innings only as the Phillies bullpen has admittedly struggled lately, entering this series with a 5.72 ERA and 1.64 WHIP over the last seven games. Contrast that with the Reds 'pen which posted a collective 2.49 ERA and 1.26 WHIP over the same stretch. Take Philadelphia -0.5 runs first five innings (10*).

A.L. Non-Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Tampa Bay -1.5 runs over Kansas City at 4:10 pm et on Saturday.

I really like the way this one sets up for the Rays off last night's tough extra innings loss.

Kris Bubic will take the ball for Kansas City. He checks in sporting a 4.62 FIP and 1.60 WHIP while allowing just shy of 5.8 runs per nine innings. The Rays will be seeing the left-hander for the second time this season and I expect them to improve on the numbers they posted back in late July (two earned runs in seven innings).

The Kansas City bullpen has posted a 5.64 ERA and 1.70 WHIP over the last seven contests.

Drew Rasmussen will counter for Tampa Bay. We won with the Rays in his most recent start and I won't hesitate to go back to the well here. Rasmussen owns a 3.36 FIP and 1.08 WHIP this season, yielding just 3.25 runs per nine innings.

The Rays bullpen, despite coughing up last night's game in extras, has posted a solid 2.25 ERA and 0.96 WHIP over the last seven games. Take Tampa Bay -1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on Oakland +1.5 runs over Seattle at 9:40 pm et on Friday.

We can make the case that the bullpens are a wash based on recent form and with that in mind, I’m comfortable backing the A’s with an insurance run as they open this divisional showdown against the Mariners on Friday.

Marco Gonzales will get the nod for Seattle. He owns a 5.10 FIP and 1.41 WHIP while giving up just shy of 4.9 runs per nine innings this season. The A’s will be seeing him for the fourth time this season having racked up nine earned runs in 18 1/3 innings so far.

Cole Irvin gets the start for the A’s. He’s turned it around lately, lowering his FIP to 3.91 and WHIP to 1.05 while yielding only 3.41 runs per nine innings. Interestingly, Irvin will be making his first start against the Mariners this season. He’s actually struggled in his career against Seattle but I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt here, noting that he has posted a 1.66 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in 11 home starts this season. Take Oakland +1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on San Diego -0.5 runs first five innings over Washington at 9:40 pm et on Friday.

The Padres dropped the opener of this series 3-1 last night, turning in a lifeless performance in their first game back home off a road trip. We missed with San Diego on the run-line in that game but will come right back with it on Friday, laying the half-run in the first five innings only.

San Diego's bullpen has been disappointing as a whole this season and after last night's game, the case can be made for the Nationals 'pen inexplicably being in better current form.

Here, we'll get behind Padres starter Blake Snell who has turned things around, lowering his FIP to 2.85 and his WHIP to 1.27. Walks are always going to be an issue but Snell has done a good job of minimizing the damage by allowing just 0.7 home runs and striking out 12.0 batters per nine innings.

The Nats have had a tough time against left-handed starting pitching this season, going 11-29 and averaging only 3.6 runs per game, compared to their season scoring average of 3.8 runs per contest.

Paolo Espino will counter for Washington. Unlike Snell, he's had a tough time keeping the ball in the park, allowing 1.7 home runs per nine innings. He sports a 4.80 FIP and 1.29 WHIP on the campaign. Also note that he gives up 2.7 more hits per nine innings compared to Snell. Take San Diego -0.5 runs first five innings (8*).

My selection is on San Diego -1.5 runs over Washington at 9:40 pm et on Thursday.

I like betting on good starting pitchers to bounce back from poor outings and that's precisely what we'll do with Padres starter Yu Darvish on Thursday.

Darvish has actually been on the mound for losses in each of his last two starts with the most recent coming against the same Nationals club he'll face on Thursday. He certainly didn't have his best stuff against the Nats last time out but I'm confident we'll see him bounce back here, noting he owns a 3.36 FIP and 1.01 WHIP while allowing only 3.4 runs per nine innings this season. Darvish has been at his best at home, posting a 2.17 ERA and 0.81 WHIP in 10 starts.

Washington will hand the ball to journeyman starter Anibal Sanchez on Thursday. He actually opposed Darvish in that 4-3 Nats victory last week. Let's not get too excited though as Sanchez still owns an ugly 7.48 FIP and 1.60 WHIP while yielding 7.5 runs per nine innings in 30 innings of work this season.

The Nats bullpen has been awful on the road this season, recording a collective 5.56 ERA and 1.49 WHIP while converting 12 saves and blowing seven. The Padres 'pen has gone through a rough stretch recently but seems to be working its way out of it having entered yesterday's game with a collective 3.86 ERA over the last seven games before tossing 4 2/3 shutout innings against the Marlins. Here at home this season, the San Diego 'pen owns a 3.29 ERA and 1.05 WHIP with 14 saves converted and seven blown. Take San Diego -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Arizona +1.5 runs over San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Tuesday.

This one falls just on the edge of our play range in terms of price. With that being said, a strong case can certainly be made for the D'Backs to be favored in this game and I think we're fortunate to have the opportunity to grab an insurance run (which we often like to have when backing Arizona - note that nine of its last 16 losses have come by a single run).

Merill Kelly gets the start for the D'Backs on Tuesday. He's actually been one of the best starting pitchers in baseball for an extended stretch this season. Kelly sports a 3.16 FIP and 1.14 WHIP while allowing just 3.08 runs per nine innings.

The Giants will give the ball to Jake Junis. It's been a mixed bag for him since returning from injury last month. Junis owns a 3.63 FIP and 1.20 WHIP while giving up just shy of 3.8 runs per nine innings this season. Note that he allows 1.0 more hit and 0.5 more home runs per nine innings compared to Kelly.

Entering last night's action, the D'Backs bullpen had recorded a collective 3.20 ERA and 1.07 WHIP over the last seven games while the Giants 'pen continued to struggled, posting a 5.66 ERA and 1.84 WHIP over that same stretch. Take Arizona +1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Oakland +1.5 runs over Texas at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday.

With the bullpens virtually a wash in this matchup and the A's holding what I consider to be a significant starting pitching advantage, we'll back the visitors with an insurance run here.

JP Sears was a key piece coming over to the A's from the Yankees in the Frankie Montas trade. He didn't disappoint in his A's debut last week, allowing just two earned runs over 5 1/3 innings of work against the Angels. In 27 1/3 big league innings pitched this season, Sears has posted a 2.93 FIP and 0.81 WHIP while allowing just 2.3 runs per nine innings.

The Rangers will send Kohei Arihara to the mound for his first start of the season. He's struggled to the tune of a 4.88 ERA and 1.32 WHIP at the AAA level this season and that's after recording an ugly 6.76 FIP and 1.43 WHIP while yielding just shy of 6.9 runs per nine innings with the Rangers last season. Take Oakland +1.5 runs (8*).

N.L. East Game of the Year. My selection is on New York +1.5 runs over Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Tuesday.

We won with the Braves in the first five innings in the opener of this series last night but I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the Mets on the run-line on Tuesday.

New York will hand the ball to Taijuan Walker, who will be out for revenge after giving up a whopping eight earned runs over just one inning against these same Braves two starts back. He bounced back nicely with a quality outing against the Reds last time out and I'm confident he can do a much better job against Atlanta this time around. Note that the last time he pitched here at Truist Park, he guided New York to a 3-1 victory last season. Walker enters this outing sporting a 3.61 FIP and 1.20 WHIP this season, yielding only 3.51 runs per nine innings.

Entering last night's contest, the Mets bullpen hadn't allowed a single earned run over its last seven games, posting a 0.92 WHIP over that stretch. New York's relief corps owns a collective 3.72 ERA and 1.22 WHIP while converting 16 saves and blowing only six on the road this season (also entering last night's action).

Charlie Morton will counter for Atlanta. He checks in with a 4.14 FIP and 1.21 WHIP, allowing 4.4 runs per nine innings this season. The Mets will be getting their third look at Morton this season having already plated nine earned runs in 10 2/3 innings in their previous two games against him.

Atlanta's bullpen has been terrific lately but has blown 11 saves (while converting 18) at home this season. Also note that the Braves relief corps has been a little more overworked than the Mets' lately, logging 27 1/3 innings over the last seven games, while New York's 'pen has been pressed into duty for less than 20 innings over the same stretch (entering this series). Take New York +1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on Los Angeles +1.5 runs over Minnesota at 9:05 pm et on Saturday.

The Twins snapped a three-game skid, taking the opener of this series with relative ease last night. I look for the Angels to give them all they can handle on Saturday, however.

Dylan Bundy will take the ball for Minnesota. He's struggled lately and let's face it, he's struggled for the majority of his big league career. Bundy checks in with a 4.30 FIP and 1.30 WHIP this season, allowing just north of 5.2 runs per nine innings.

Also note that the Twins bullpen entered this series sporting a collective 5.72 ERA and 1.59 WHIP over the last seven games, having converted just eight saves while also blowing eight on the road this season.

Reid Detmers will counter for Los Angeles. He owns a 4.24 FIP and 1.05 WHIP while holding the opposition to only 3.54 runs per nine innings this season. Note that the Twins are just 17-15 against left-handed starting pitching this season, averaging 4.2 runs per game (compared to their 4.5 runs per game season scoring average).

The Angels bullpen entered last night's action having posted a collective 2.42 ERA and 0.85 WHIP over the last seven contests. Take Los Angeles +1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Detroit +0.5 runs first five innings over Chicago at 7:10 pm et on Saturday.

We'll grab the half-run of insurance with the Tigers in the first five innings on Saturday as I do feel they have an advantage in terms of the starting pitching matchup.

Matt Manning will get the start for Detroit. He's logged only 20 innings so far this season but has made the most of them, recording a 4.27 FIP and 1.10 WHIP while allowing only 2.25 runs per nine innings. Last time out he tossed seven shutout innings against the Rays but the Tigers bullpen couldn't hold up in an eventual loss. That's been the story a lot lately as the Detroit 'pen has been downright awful and we'll look to avoid that relief corps by playing the first five innings only here.

Lucas Giolito has been high on our fade list all season long and we won't reverse course here. Giolito checks in with a 4.28 FIP and 1.51 WHIP, allowing 5.25 runs per nine innings. The Tigers have already seen him twice this season, winning both of those games. They most recently plated five earned runs over 6 2/3 innings against Giolito right here in Chicago back on July 8th. Take Detroit +0.5 runs first five innings (8*).

My selection is on Los Angeles -1.5 runs over Kansas City at 7:10 pm et on Saturday.

I'm anticipating a lopsided result in favor of the Dodgers on Saturday in Kansas City as they send Andrew Heaney to the hill against Brad Keller of the Royals.

Heaney has been solid since returning from injury, posting a 2.34 FIP and 1.00 WHIP while holding the opposition to just 2.25 runs per nine innings this season. Behind Heaney is an elite Dodgers bullpen that brought terrific form into this series having recorded a collective 1.80 ERA and 0.72 WHIP over the last seven games.

Brad Keller has endured another trying season for the Royals, recording a 4.35 FIP and 1.37 WHIP while giving up 4.9 runs per nine innings. Note that the Dodgers are 53-21 and average 5.4 runs per game against right-handed starting pitching this season.

The Kansas City bullpen has struggled for much of the season and entered last night's action sporting a collective 4.57 ERA and 1.29 WHIP over the last seven contests. Take Los Angeles -1.5 runs (10*).

N.L. Non-Division Game of the Week. My selection is on San Francisco -0.5 runs first five innings over Pittsburgh at 10:15 pm et on Friday.

As we still don’t trust the Giants bullpen, we’ll back them in the first five innings only on Friday as they have a considerable starting pitching edge with All-Star Carlos Rodon taking the hill against Bryse Wilson of the Pirates.

Rodon enters Friday’s start sporting a terrific 2.28 FIP and 1.07 WHIP while allowing only 3.02 runs per nine innings this season. He absolutely baffled the Pirates in a start against them earlier this season, tossing eight shutout innings of two-hit ball.

Bryse Wilson is one of the weakest links in the Pirates rotation and that’s saying something. He has recorded a 5.06 FIP and 1.52 WHIP this season, yielding a whopping 6.82 runs per nine innings.

There’s no real advantage for the Giants in the later innings of this one as their bullpen continues to under-achieve, having posted a collective 4.62 ERA and 1.42 WHIP over the last seven games, not to mention converting only 10 saves at home this season (four blown). Take San Francisco -0.5 runs first five innings (10*).

My selection is on Houston -1.5 runs over Oakland at 8:10 pm et on Friday.

There’s quite simply no comparison between these two teams which lie at opposite ends of the A.L. West spectrum this season.

The A’s will hand the ball to struggling rookie Adam Oller on Friday. He checks in with a 7.15 FIP and 1.79 WHIP while allowing just north of 8.2 runs per nine innings.

His counterpart on Friday will be Luis Garcia of the Astros. While not an elite starter by any stretch, he’s been more than serviceable in the Astros starting rotation, posting a 4.03 FIP and 1.10 WHIP while allowing 4.33 runs per nine innings this season.

Houston’s bullpen has been lights out at home all season, recording a collective 2.01 ERA and 0.94 WHIP while converting 15 saves and blowing only five (entering yesterday’s action). Take Houston -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is Los Angeles -1.5 runs over Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Friday.

While the Royals are coming off a stunning series sweep of the division rival White Sox, I expect Friday’s result to be much more straightforward as they host the Dodgers.

Los Angeles will send All-Star Tony Gonsolin to the mound for the series opener. He checks in with a 3.47 FIP and 0.89 WHIP this season, yielding only 2.38 runs per nine innings. Behind Gonsolin is a Dodgers bullpen that has posted a collective 1.80 ERA and 0.72 WHIP over the last seven games.

The Royals will hand the ball to left-hander Daniel Lynch. He owns a 4.08 FIP and 1.52 WHIP while giving up just over 5.0 runs per nine innings on the campaign.

The Kansas City bullpen did its best to cough up yesterday’s game against the White Sox but ultimately held on to finish the series sweep. Note that the Royals ‘pen owned a 4.50 ERA and 1.50 WHIP at home this season, entering yesterday’s contest. Take Los Angeles -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on San Diego -1.5 runs over Washington at 7:05 pm et on Friday.

This one sets up exceptionally well for the Padres as they head to Washington to face the lowly Nationals on Friday.

Mike Clevinger will take the ball for San Diego. He’s having a fine season having posted a 3.98 FIP and 1.12 WHIP while allowing just 3.74 runs per nine innings. Behind Clevinger is a Padres bullpen that has recorded a collective 3.52 ERA and 1.39 WHIP over the last seven games.

Cory Abbott was awful in limited work for the Cubs last season and has been equally bad in 12 2/3 innings with the Nationals this year. Abbott checks in with an 8.88 FIP and 1.50 WHIP while allowing 5.68 runs per nine innings.

The Nationals bullpen has struggled for much of the campaign and has certainly had a tough time lately, posting a collective 6.29 ERA and 1.64 WHIP over its last seven contests. Take San Diego -1.5 runs (8*).

A.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on Houston -1.5 runs over Texas at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday.

The Astros added to the Rangers misery with a 7-5 victory last night and I anticipate more of the same on Wednesday.

Texas will hand the ball to Glenn Otto. To say he's struggled this season would be an understatement. Otto checks in with a 5.19 FIP and 1.41 WHIP while allowing north of 5.5 runs per nine innings. He's given up 2.1 more hits, 0.5 more home runs and 2.9 more walks per nine innings compared to his counterpart on this night, Astros ace Justin Verlander.

Verlander is having another terrific campaign, having posted a 2.98 FIP and 0.85 WHIP while holding the opposition to just shy of 2.3 runs per nine innings. He's an A.L. Cy Young Award candidate once again to be sure.

Behind Verlander is an Astros bullpen that has been lights out lately and for much of the season, particularly at home. Over the last seven games, the Astros 'pen has recorded a collective 0.48 ERA and 0.75 WHIP. Take Houston -1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on Miami +1.5 runs over Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday.

While we're being asked to lay a steep price to grab the insurance run with the Marlins here, the fact that we're able to get the +1.5 at all is a steal in my opinion. The case can certainly be made for the Marlins to be favored in this matchup but I will grab that insurance run as they've had a knack for finding ways to lose games lately.

Sandy Alcantara will take the ball for Miami. He is of course one of the top contenders for the N.L. Cy Young Award this season having posted a 2.86 FIP and 0.94 WHIP while allowing just 2.27 runs per nine innings. After a shaky outing in Pittsburgh, Alcantara bounced back in a big way last time out, tossing a complete game shutout against the Reds (we won with the Marlins in that game).

Noah Syndergaard will counter for the Phillies. He's having a fine season but certainly doesn't boast the same sort of numbers as Alcantara. The veteran right-hander sports a 3.85 FIP and 1.27 WHIP while giving up 4.24 runs per nine innings.

Behind Syndergaard is a struggling Phillies bullpen that has recorded a collective 6.75 ERA and 1.71 WHIP over the last seven games. In stark contrast, the Marlins 'pen has posted a 1.45 ERA and 1.07 WHIP over the same stretch. Take Miami +1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on New York -0.5 runs first five innings over Cincinnati at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday.

While I realize the Reds don't have a wealth of starting pitching talent that's ready for the big league level right now, it's still hard to believe that they continue to trot out veteran left-hander Mike Minor every five days.

To say that Minor has struggled this season would be an understatement. He checks in sporting a 6.57 FIP and 1.57 WHIP while yielding north of 6.8 runs per nine innings. We can no longer blame it on a small sample size either as he's logged 11 starts covering a span of 56 2/3 innings.

The Mets will counter with Carlos Carrasco on Tuesday. He's pitched well lately, lowering his FIP to 3.44 and his WHIP to 1.28 and has given up just north of 3.8 runs per nine innings this season. Carrasco allows 1.0 fewer hits, 1.6 fewer walks and perhaps most importantly 1.6 fewer home runs per nine innings when compared to Minor this season.

The reason we're laying the half-run with the Mets in the first five innings only again tonight (we won with the same play last night) is the fact that their bullpen has been unsteady lately, recording a collective 5.48 ERA and 1.52 WHIP over the last seven games. Over that same stretch, the Reds 'pen has posted a terrific 2.42 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. Take New York -0.5 runs first five innings (8*).

My selection is on Arizona -0.5 runs first five innings over Pittsburgh at 9:40 pm et on Monday.

We have enough of a starting pitching advantage to support the D'Backs at an admittedly steep price point in the first five innings in Monday's series-opener against the Pirates.

Pittsburgh will hand the ball to Tyler Beede. He's logged 41 2/3 innings this season and hasn't fared particularly well, recording a 4.36 FIP and 1.49 WHIP while giving up 4.1 runs per nine innings. In comparison with his counterpart on Monday, Zac Gallen, he has allowed 2.5 more hits and 1.5 more walks per nine innings.

Gallen is having a fine season having posted a 3.68 FIP and 1.04 WHIP while allowing only 3.64 runs per nine innings.

The only reason I hesitate to back the D'Backs for the full game here is the fact that the Pirates bullpen has been lights out lately, recording a collective 1.99 ERA and 1.23 WHIP over the last seven games. The D'Backs meanwhile have converted just 10 saves while blowing eight at home this season. Take Arizona -0.5 runs first five innings (8*).

My selection is on New York -0.5 runs first five innings over Cincinnati at 7:10 pm et on Monday.

The Mets are rolling right now and there's little reason to expect the Reds to serve as anything more than a speedbump on Monday. With that being said, New York's bullpen has struggled to the tune of an ERA north of 6.00 and a 1.56 WHIP over the last seven games and I like the way the starting pitching matchup sets up so we'll back it in the first five innings only here.

Cincinnati will give Justin Dunn his first big league start of the season. He's struggled at the minor league level here in 2022, posting a 6.75 ERA and 1.82 WHIP in 28 innings of work. Of course, he hasn't found much success at the big league level in his career either, most recently posting a 4.74 FIP and 1.31 WHIP with the Mariners last season.

Chris Bassitt will counter for New York. He was terrific in his most recent start, tossing seven shutout innings against Washington. On the season he has recorded a 3.71 FIP and 1.12 WHIP while giving up just shy of 3.7 runs per nine innings. Take New York -0.5 runs first five innings (8*).

My selection is on San Francisco -0.5 runs over Oakland at 7:05 pm et on Saturday.

While Giants starter Carlos Rodon has struggled since the All-Star break, I’m anticipating a return to form against the A’s on Saturday.

Rodon still owns a terrific 2.28 FIP and 1.07 WHIP on the season, giving up just 3.07 runs per nine innings. Here, he’ll face an A’s offense that averages only 3.2 runs per game against left-handed starting pitching this season.

Adam Oller will take the ball for Oakland. He’s generally been awful this season, recording a 7.15 FIP and 1.73 WHIP while giving up a whopping 8.38 runs per nine innings.

With the Giants bullpen struggling over an extended period (not to mention just 11 saves converted and eight blown on the road this season - entering last night’s action), we’ll look to back them in the first five innings only on Saturday. Take San Francisco -0.5 runs first five innings (8*).

My selection is on Tampa Bay -0.5 runs first five innings over Detroit at 6:10 pm et on Saturday.

The Rays own a considerable starting pitching advantage in this matchup as they hand the ball to their ace Shane McClanahan against Tigers rookie Garrett Hill. With the bullpens virtually a wash, we’ll lay the half-run with Tampa Bay in the first five innings only here.

McClanahan is actually coming off one of his worst outings of the season, allowing five earned runs in just 4 1/3 innings of work against Cleveland. I’m confident he’ll bounce back against the light-hitting Tigers on Saturday, noting that the left-hander owns a terrific 2.63 FIP and 0.83 WHIP while allowing only 2.43 runs per nine innings this season.

Hill on the other hand has faded after a solid start, with his FIP rising to 5.65 and his WHIP to 1.35 while giving up an average of 5.88 runs per nine innings. Take Tampa Bay -0.5 runs first five innings (8*).

My selection is on Philadelphia -0.5 runs first five innings over Washington at 6:05 pm et on Saturday.

It’s not often we give the Phillies a decisive starting pitching advantage with Ranger Suarez on the mound but we will do so tonight as the left-hander takes the ball against fellow southpaw Patrick Corbin of the Nationals.

Suarez checks in with a 3.83 FIP and 1.35 WHIP while allowing 4.26 runs per nine innings this season. Not great numbers by any means but certainly superior to those of Corbin who sports an ugly 4.66 FIP and 1.77 WHIP while yielding just shy of 7.5 runs per nine innings.

Note that the Nationals have gone a woeful 11-24 against left-handed starting pitching this season.

Given the fact that the Phillies bullpen has been struggling, posting a collective 7.71 ERA and 1.57 WHIP over the last seven games (entering last night’s action), we’ll back them in the first five innings only on Saturday. Take Philadelphia -0.5 runs first five innings (8*).

My selection is on Houston -0.5 runs first five innings over Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Thursday.

We'll back the Astros in the first five innings only on Thursday as their edge lies in the starting pitching matchup rather than in the later innings as the Guardians bullpen has been outstanding lately.

Justin Verlander will get the start for Houston. He owns a 3.04 FIP and an even more impressive 0.87 WHIP while holding opponents to just 2.4 runs per nine innings this season.

Zach Plesac, meanwhile, checks in with a 4.30 FIP and 1.29 WHIP on the campaign while giving up just north of 5.0 runs per nine frames. Take Houston -0.5 runs first five innings (8*).

N.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on San Diego -1.5 runs over Colorado at 4:10 pm et on Thursday.

I'm comfortable laying the extra run with the Padres as they host the Rockies on Thursday afternoon in San Diego.

Kyle Freeland will get the start for the Rockies. Interestingly, this will be his fourth start against the Padres this season and the Rockies have won each of the first three. I look for that streak to end here. Note that Freeland has posted a less than impressive 4.28 FIP and 1.34 WHIP this season while allowing north of 5.0 runs per nine innings.

Behind Freeland is a Rockies bullpen that has hit the skids again, recording a collective 5.47 ERA and 1.64 WHIP over the last seven games, entering yesterday's action.

Newly-signed Joe Musgrove will be looking to prove he's worth the monster contract the Padres just gave him. He's well-positioned to do just that having posted a 3.26 FIP and 0.99 WHIP while holding opponents to only 2.97 runs per nine innings this season.

The Padres bullpen went through a recent rough stretch but has since turned it around again, recording a collective 3.86 ERA and 1.00 WHIP over the last seven games. Here at home this season, the Padres have converted 14 saves while blowing only five (entering yesterday's action). Take San Diego -1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on Milwaukee -0.5 runs first five innings over Pittsburgh at 12:35 pm et on Thursday.

This is one of the biggest starting pitching mismatches you'll find on Thursday's MLB board.

Brandon Woodruff will get the call for the visiting Brewers. He has lowered his FIP to 2.73 and his WHIP to 1.14 while allowing just under 3.9 runs per nine innings this season. The issue with the Brewers is their bullpen which has labored lately and certainly didn't get any better dealing closer Josh Hader to the Padres prior to the trade deadline.

Zach Thompson will counter for the Pirates. He has posted a 5.22 FIP and 1.48 WHIP, yielding 5.64 runs per nine innings on the season. The Brewers have had little trouble against Thompson this season, already seeing him three times previously and plating 10 earned runs while chasing him before the end of the fifth inning in each of those three contests.

By playing the first five innings only we'll look to avoid a Pirates bullpen that has admittedly pitched well, recording a 2.25 ERA and 1.29 WHIP over the last seven games (entering yesterday's action). Take Milwaukee -0.5 runs first five innings (8*).

MLB Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Miami -0.5 runs first five innings over Cincinnati at 6:40 pm et on Wednesday.

The Reds have taken the first two games of this series but I look for the Marlins to bounce back with their ace on the hill on Wednesday.

Veteran left-hander Mike Minor gets another turn in the Reds rotation out of necessity only. He owns a 6.74 FIP and 1.58 WHIP while giving up north of 7.0 runs per nine innings this season. While the Marlins have struggled to put runs on the board against left-handed starting pitching, I'm confident they can get to Minor in this one.

Sandy Alcantara hasn't necessarily had his best stuff in his last couple of outings but his overall numbers tell the story as he has recorded a 2.87 FIP and 0.94 WHIP while holding opponents to just 2.41 runs per nine innings.

After dealing a pair of key bullpen arms to Toronto, I'm only interested in backing the Marlins in the first five innings in this one. We have a decisive enough edge in terms of the starting pitching matchup to lay the half-run with Miami in the first half here. Take Miami -0.5 runs first five innings (10*).

My selection is on New York -0.5 runs first five innings over Washington at 4:05 pm et on Wednesday.

The Mets have a considerable starting pitching advantage in Wednesday's series finale in Washington as they hand the ball to Chris Bassitt against journeyman right-hander Anibal Sanchez of the Nationals.

Bassitt is having another fine campaign having posted a 3.79 FIP and 1.13 WHIP while giving up only 3.91 runs per nine innings. He faced the Nats once back in April and tossed six shutout innings.

Sanchez owns a 6.75 FIP and 1.40 WHIP while yielding a whopping 7.47 runs per nine innings. Here, he'll be starting on just four days' rest after getting tagged for six earned runs over 5 2/3 innings against the Cardinals last time out.

There's no real edge in terms of the bullpens in this matchup, surprisingly enough. With that in mind, we'll lay the half-run with the Mets in the first five innings only. Take New York -0.5 runs first five innings (8*).

My selection is on Philadelphia +1.5 runs over Atlanta at 12:20 pm et on Wednesday.

I'll gladly grab the insurance run with the Phillies in the finale of this brief two-game series in Atlanta on Wednesday.

Zack Wheeler will get the start for Philadelphia. He checks in sporting a 2.84 FIP and 1.03 WHIP while giving up only 3.09 runs per nine innings this season. In 23 career outings against Atlanta, Wheeler owns a solid 3.19 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. 

Behind Wheeler is a Phillies bullpen that entered last night's action with a 3.52 ERA and 1.13 WHIP over its last seven games. On the road this season, the Phillies have converted 16 saves while blowing eight.

Charlie Morton will counter for Atlanta. He has recorded a 4.07 FIP and 1.25 WHIP while giving up 4.5 runs per nine innings. The Phillies have already seen Morton three times previously this season, reaching him for 10 earned runs in 15 innings. 

The Atlanta bullpen has posted a collective 4.22 ERA and 1.22 WHIP over the last seven contests and has blown 10 saves (while making good on 18) at home this season, again entering last night's action. Take Philadelphia +1.5 runs (8*).