Sports Picks & Predictions

My selection is on Washington plus the points over Michigan at 7:30 pm et on Monday.

It shouldn't be difficult at all for the Huskies to play the 'nobody believes in us' card in Monday's National Championship showdown against Michigan. You'd be hard-pressed to find many willing to pick Washington to win this game outright, that's for sure. I simply feel it's going to be tough for Michigan to go from winning 'that' game against Alabama in last Monday's Rose Bowl, in overtime no less, to getting right back up for what many believe to be a lesser opponent in Washington. Just think about everything the Wolverines have been through this season. Yes, winning a national title would represent a storybook finish but things don't always go as planned. Washington is no pushover. This is a team that seems to have gotten stronger with each passing game, first upsetting Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship Game and then defeating Texas in a thriller in the Sugar Bowl last Monday. Note that Washington is 7-4 ATS in its last 11 games as an underdog. Michigan is just 10-13 ATS in its last 23 contests after three straight ATS victories as a favorite. The Wolverines are also a miserable 1-5 ATS in their last six neutral site games when priced as a favorite of between 3.5 and 7 points, as is the case here. Take Washington (8*).

Bowl Game of the Year. My selection is on Iowa plus the points over Tennessee at 1 pm et on Monday.

Talk about disrespect. Iowa enters the Citrus Bowl sporting a better record than Tennessee and is almost certainly bringing a more complete roster to the game than the Vols, yet here it is installed as a considerable underdog in a game that figures to be low-scoring (a situation that would certainly favor the Hawkeyes). Note that Iowa has reeled off four wins in its last five Bowl appearances (the lone loss came by just three points against Kentucky on this field two years ago to the day) and figures to be in a foul mood after a 26-0 drubbing at the hands of Michigan in the Big Ten Championship Game. The Hawkeyes won't have standout TE Erick All or QB Cade McNamara but we know they're not all about offense anyway. I'm confident the Iowa defense will be fired up about facing Vols highly-touted blue chip freshman QB recruit Nico Iamaleava rather than Joe Milton in this matchup. Note that Iowa is an incredible 66-33 ATS in its last 99 games after losing ATS in two of its last three contests, as is the case here. The Hawkeyes are also 9-5 ATS in their last 14 games a neutral field underdog of a touchdown or less. Meanwhile, Tennessee is a miserable 42-61 ATS in its last 103 games following a home victory by 17 points or more. Take Iowa (10*).

Bowl Game of the Week. My selection is on Toledo plus the points over Wyoming at 4:30 pm et on Saturday.

This line has shifted considerably with the news that Toledo QB Dequan Finn has entered the transfer portal and will miss this game. I still like Toledo's chances of giving Wyoming all it can handle on Saturday afternoon. Note that the Rockets will be out to erase the memory of a disappointing loss in the MAC Championship Game against Miami-Ohio. There's no reason for the disappointment to linger as you could argue the Rockets still ended up with a higher-profile Bowl game. Wyoming closed out the regular season with consecutive blowout wins over Hawaii and Nevada. The Cowboys inability to step up in class turned out to be their downfall in the Mountain West Conference this season as they fell short against the likes of Air Force, Boise State and UNLV. I expect them to similarly have their hands full with a very capable Rockets squad here. Note that Toledo is 24-8 ATS in its last 32 games after scoring 14 points or less in its previous contest, as is the case here. Wyoming is 0-4 ATS in its last four games after posting a road victory by 28 points or more. Take Toledo (10*).

My selection is on Ole Miss plus the points over Penn State at 12 noon et on Saturday.

Ole Miss has to feel pretty good at itself for reaching the Peach Bowl with a 10-2 record this season. The Rebels only two losses came against Alabama and Georgia. I like their chances of hanging tough against Penn State here. The Nittany Lions closed out the regular season with consecutive blowout wins over Rutgers and Michigan State. Note that Ole Miss is a long-term 63-46 ATS against non-conference opponents and 11-4 ATS in its last 15 Bowl games. Penn State checks in just 8-15 ATS in its last 23 games following a shutout victory, as is the case here. On the fast track at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, I look for the Rebels offense to thrive. Take Ole Miss (8*).

My selection is on Oregon State plus the points over Notre Dame at 2 pm et on Friday.

I can't imagine this game means a whole lot to Notre Dame as a program. This is a team that wants to be playing for national championships, not second-rate Bowl game victories. The Irish put the clamps on Wake Forest and Stanford in their final two regular season games, rolling to lopsided victories. Their roster on Friday will be a far cry from the one that delivered those knockout blows, however. Oregon State will be missing plenty of key contributors from the regular season as well. I do think the Beavers will be playing with a considerable chip on their shoulder, however, as they look to avoid a three-game losing streak to wrap up the campaign (the 31-7 loss to rival Oregon in their regular season finale certainly stung). Oregon State will be making its fourth straight Bowl appearance having gone 2-1 SU in the previous three. Note that the Beavers are 19-8 ATS in their last 27 road games played with extended rest. Take Oregon State (8*).

My selection is on Boston College plus the points over SMU at 11 am et on Thursday.

SMU rolled to a double-digit win in the AAC Championship Game against Tulane but I expect it to have a tougher time getting up for this early start Bowl game against a 6-6 Boston College team. The Eagles will of course have the advantage of playing this game in their own backyard at Fenway Park in Boston. We'll simply fade a Mustangs squad that has reeled off nine straight wins, noting that they're 2-11 ATS in their last 13 road games after winning four or more games in a row. The Eagles check in 18-12 ATS in their last 30 games after suffering consecutive losses against conference opponents. Take Boston College (8*).

My selection is on Tulane plus the points over Virginia Tech at 2 pm et on Wednesday.

Things didn't look all that promising for Virginia Tech after it got off to a 1-3 start this season. A lopsided win over Pittsburgh on the final day of September gave the Hokies some confidence and from there they scratched and clawed their way to six victories to gain Bowl eligibility. They're being favored by a considerable number of points on Wednesday as Tulane has a number of key contributors sitting out including do-it-all QB Michael Pratt. I like the spot for the Green Wave here, however, as they come in with a sour taste in their mouths after suffering a double-digit loss against SMU in the AAC Championship Game. Virginia Tech routed rival Virginia 55-17 back on November 25th. That's notable as the Hokies are a miserable 11-24 ATS in their last 35 games played away from home after a win by 21 points or more over a conference opponent, as is the case here. Tulane has reached six Bowl games since 2013, going 4-2 with the only double-digit loss coming by 11 points against Nevada in 2020. Take Tulane (8*).

My selection is on UNLV plus the points over Kansas at 9 pm et on Tuesday.

The thinking here is that UNLV isn't ready to hang with the big boys having ended the regular season with a thud in consecutive losses against San Jose State and Boise State (in the Mountain West Conference championship game). I actually think the Runnin' Rebels draw a favorable matchup here with Kansas having yet to win a Bowl game in program history (0-9). The Jayhawks aren't a good defensive team, even if they did close out the regular season with a blowout win over Cincinnati. The Rebels will certainly be comfortable playing indoors at Chase Field in Phoenix, a reasonable facsimile for their own home field at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. Note that Kansas is a long-term loser at 156-197 ATS while UNLV has gone a perfect 8-0 ATS in its last eight non-conference affairs. Take UNLV (8*).

My selection is on Coastal Carolina plus the points over San Jose State at 10:30 pm et on Saturday.

The Chanticleers will be missing a number of key players that are currently in the transfer portal. I think we’re seeing an overreaction from the betting markets, however. The players that will take the field for Coastal Carolina will be desperate to avoid a third straight loss to close out the season. For a winning program like CCU that’s simply unacceptable. San Jose State started the season 1-5 before going on a run. Off an upset win over UNLV on the road we’ll fade the Spartans as they shift into the role of big favorite here. Take Coastal Carolina (8*).

Bowl Game of the Week. My selection is on Duke plus the points over Troy at 12 noon et on Saturday.

It can be difficult enough to get up for a pre-Christmas Bowl game, especially in today's college football landscape. For Troy, it enters this matchup riding a 10-game winning streak, having been favored in each of its last nine contests (make it 10 straight including this one). Much of the story around this game will be who isn't playing for the Blue Devils. I'm confident we'll see Duke rise to the occasion, however, and salvage the finale of a season that started off so promising back in early September. Remember, the Blue Devils opened the campaign with four straight victories, including a thrilling opening week victory over Clemson. The wheels came off from mid-October to mid-November but Duke didn't quit, managing to split its final four games, losing by a combined five points in the two losses over that stretch. Note that Troy checks in 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games after scoring 31 or more points in four consecutive games, as is the case here. Duke is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 lined non-conference games and 6-1 ATS in its last seven December Bowl games. Take Duke (10*).

My selection is on Central Florida minus the points over Georgia Tech at 6:30 pm et on Friday.

It appeared all hope of reaching a Bowl game was lost for Central Florida following a five-game losing streak that stretched from late-September through the end of October. That slide came in advance of a difficult four-game season-ending stretch that included matchups with Cincinnati, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech and Houston. Instead of folding the tent, the Golden Knights turned their season around, winning three of those four contests to gain Bowl eligibility. While an appearance in the Gasparilla Bowl may not be all that enticing to some teams, I expect the Knights to relish the opportunity to play a once-unlikely December game. It was an interesting season for Georgia Tech as it staged upset wins over Miami (whether that victory was deserving or not is up for debate) and North Carolina and gave in-state rival Georgia all it could handle in the final week of the regular season. I didn't come away overly impressed by the Yellow Jackets as a whole, however, and believe they'll have a difficult time keeping pace with the Knights offense on Friday. Note that these two teams actually met last season with UCF cruising to a 27-10 win at home. Revenge is generally a dish best served at home and in this particular rematch, the Yellow Jackets will once again travel to Florida. Take Central Florida (8*).

Bowl Game of the Week. My selection is on Texas Tech minus the points over California at 9:15 pm et on Saturday.

California closed out the regular season with about as big of a win as you can get in Berkeley, defeating rival UCLA 33-7, securing Bowl eligibility in the process. The Bears needed to use everything they had in the tank to earn a Bowl spot, winning their final three games. Of course, they were favored in two of those contests so it's not as if it was a monumental accomplishment. Here, I think Cal is in the wrong place at the wrong time as it runs into a Texas Tech squad that will be eager to make amends for an embarrassing 57-7 loss against Texas in its regular season finale. The Red Raiders picked up some nice wins this season including on the road against Baylor and Kansas and at home against TCU. There were some bad losses in the mix as well but as a whole I was more encouraged by the Red Raiders consistency than I was with the Bears. Note that the loss against Texas sets Texas Tech up well here as it has gone a perfect 8-0 ATS in its last eight games following a road loss against a conference opponent. Meanwhile, Cal is a long-term 20-25 ATS in its last 45 games following an upset victory. Take Texas Tech (10*).

My selection is on Fresno State plus the points over New Mexico State at 5:45 pm et on Saturday.

Perhaps home field advantage is weighing heavily on this line with New Mexico State playing in its own backyard against reeling Fresno State on Saturday. If anything, I think it's the visiting Bulldogs that have a lot more to prove after their regular season ended with a thud with three straight losses to take it out of Mountain West Conference title contention. Fresno State had everything in front of it after a home win over Boise State on November 4th but it all unravelled from there. The Bulldogs are precisely the type of team I like to back come Bowl season. As much as it's thought that teams have a tendency to quit after a disappointing finish the campaign, once the ball is kicked off, they're often the teams that find their motivation and end up coming out on top. I would lump New Mexico State in the 'happy to be here' category as the Aggies were an afterthought at the start of the season but ended up winning 10 games including an eight-game SU and ATS winning streak from October 4th to November 25th and an upset win over rival New Mexico. Note that Fresno State checks in 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games after three straight losses against conference opponents, as is the case here. New Mexico State is a long-term 32-37 ATS in its last 69 games as a favorite. Take Fresno State (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Army and Navy at 3 pm et on Saturday.

The long 'under' streak in this storied rivalry came to an end in 2021 and last year's game found its way 'over' the total as well thanks to overtime (only 20 points were scored in regulation time). While we're dealing with an incredibly low posted total for the 2023 edition, I'm still willing to take a flyer on the 'under'. Between these two teams during the regular season we saw six shutouts pitched one way or another. Both teams actually opened up their offenses a little more this year, electing to sling it around the field a little bit rather than strictly operating option-based attacks. With that being said, Army comes into this game on a three-game winning streak and it essentially took passing out of its vocabulary in those three contests, connecting on just 8-of-17 throws for 119 yards. Last time out against Coastal Carolina, the Black Knights attempted just two passes (and didn't have a completion). This has all the makings of a chess match. Navy showed incredible patience over the course of the season, relying on its knack for turning over its opponents while methodically wearing down the opposition on offense. Even though the Midshipmen did throw it a lot more than we're accustomed to seeing, they still topped out at 163 passing yards and that came against an FCS opponent in Wagner. Take the under (8*).

Conference Championship Game of the Year. My selection is on Louisville plus the points over Florida State at 8 pm et on Saturday.

Really tough spot for Florida State here as it marches on without Jordan Travis and possibly its backup quarterback as well against a Louisville squad that will be looking to play spoiler on Saturday in Charlotte. The Seminoles survived their first test without Travis, defeating rival Florida 24-15 last Saturday. This is a much tougher matchup, however, as they go up against a Cardinals squad that dropped a 38-31 decision against Kentucky last week but checks in 10-2 on the season and a perfect 10-0 ATS in its last 10 games following an ATS loss. Florida State can only lean on its defense so much, noting that it mustered just 224 total yards on offense in last week's victory. Last year, Louisville let the Seminoles off the hook at home, blowing a 21-14 halftime lead in an eventual 35-31 defeat. Expect the Cardinals to get their revenge here. Take Louisville (10*).

My selection is on Oregon minus the points over Washington at 8 pm et on Friday.

The Ducks have to be happy to be afforded the opportunity to avenge their only loss suffered this season on Friday against Washington. Oregon actually dominated most of the way against the Huskies back on October 14th in Seattle, racking up over 500 yards of total offense, but Washington came up with the critical plays late and ultimately secured a wild 36-33 victory. I don't expect this game to be as tightly-contested. The Pac-12 Championship Game was introduced in 2011 and since then we've seen plenty of blowouts. In fact, eight of the 12 games have been decided by 18 or more points. While Oregon's offense kept humming down the stretch, we saw some regression from Michael Penix and the Huskies. Washington could only muster 22 and 24 points in its final two regular season games against Oregon State and Washington State, completing just 31-of-61 passes for 366 yards in those contests. That's not how you want to be playing leading up to a showdown with mighty Oregon, especially when the Ducks have been spotted an extra day of preparation (they last played on Black Friday in a glorified scrimmage against rival Oregon State). Take Oregon (8*).

My selection is on UCLA minus the points over California at 10:30 pm et on Saturday.

While many will consider this to be a big-time letdown spot for UCLA coming off last week's 'upset' win over rival USC, I don't necessarily see it that way. A little bit of the shine was taken off that win thanks to the Trojans recent swoon. While it was a much-needed victory for the Bruins given they entered riding a two-game losing streak, I don't expect it to knock them off course or cloud their focus entering Saturday's regular season finale against Cal. The Bears need a win to gain Bowl eligibility but given they've won just once in the last six meetings in this series - that coming when the Bruins were mired in a down year in 2019 - I don't think it's in the cards for them this season. The Bruins have all but stamped out opposing ground attacks this season, allowing a minuscule 2.2 yards per rush, and that's precisely the area Cal needs to excel at in order to find success. Note that the Bears have thrown for 300+ yards just twice this season and not since Week 4 in a 27-point rout at the hands of Washington. UCLA hasn't thrown for 300 or more yards at all this season but the Bruins figure to feast on the ground against a Cal defense that 125 or more rushing yards in five of its last six contests. Note that the Bears are a long-term loser at 32-40 ATS in their last 72 lined games following consecutive ATS wins, as is the case here. Meanwhile, UCLA checks in a profitable 60-47 ATS in its last 107 lined contests after losing two of its last three games ATS. Take UCLA (8*).

Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Georgia minus the points over Georgia Tech at 7:30 pm et on Friday.

I'm not a big believer in 'look-ahead' spots. That's the thinking behind some backing the underdog Yellow Jackets here with Georgia headed for an SEC Championship Game showdown with Alabama next week. I do think there's some merit in the 'letdown' angle, however, and that's precisely the situation Georgia Tech is in here after it gained Bowl eligibility with last week's win over hapless Syracuse. The Yellow Jackets can't stop the run - they've been torched for a ridiculous 160+ rushing yards in all but one of their 11 games this season and have given up 200+ on seven different occasions. There's reason to believe the top-ranked Bulldogs can get whatever they want offensively in this game while their defense is more than capable of taking care of the rest against a mistake-prone Yellow Jackets offense. Last year's meeting between these in-state rivals was closer than expected. I don't believe this one will be. Take Georgia (10*).

My selection is on Utah State minus the points over New Mexico at 3:30 pm et on Friday.

It may be Senior Day but New Mexico finds itself in a massive letdown spot at home against Utah State on Friday. The Lobos put forth arguably their best performance of the season in a big upset win at Fresno State last week. Keep in mind, they're just one game removed from dropping a 42-14 decision at Boise State and the last time we saw them play here at University Stadium they were wrecked 56-14 by UNLV. Utah State needs a victory here to become Bowl eligible and I think it's important not to knock the Aggies down too many notches after last week's blown opportunity in a 45-10 loss on the blue turf in Boise. Prior to that, Utah State had been playing some of its best football, reeling off consecutive wins at San Diego State and at home against Nevada. While it's been an up-and-down year to be sure, I've seen enough growth from this Utah State squad (since a 39-21 beatdown at Air Force in mid-September) to believe it's deserving of going Bowling. Take Utah State (8*).

SEC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Ole Miss and Mississippi State at 7:30 pm et on Thursday.

This matchup produced only 46 total points last season in a game that had a closing total of 63 points. So that potential shootout fizzled but I don't believe this one will. Ole Miss has been involved in its share of high-scoring affairs this season but its most recent contest reached only 38 points in a blowout win over Louisiana-Monroe. In general, most of the Rebels games have either involved them lighting it up or the opposition doing so. There's really been no in-between. Here, Ole Miss should break off its share of big plays on the ground against a Mississippi State defense that has been matador-like against the run when it's mattered most - for example it is just one game removed from getting ripped for 246 yards on 45 rush attempts against Texas A&M. The Bulldogs offense hasn't been all that electric this season. It's largely been a disappointment, in fact. However, Mississippi State has also run up against a pretty brutal schedule since Week 4, facing the gauntlet of Alabama at home, Arkansas and Auburn on the road, Kentucky at home and Texas A&M on the road with a couple of gimme non-conference matchups mixed in (the Bulldogs scored 41 points in wins over Western Michigan and Southern Miss). Note that the 'over' is 11-3 in Mississippi State's last 14 lined home contests, leading to an average total of 59.4 points. Take the over (10*).

MAC Game of the Year. My selection is on Bowling Green minus the points over Western Michigan at 7 pm et on Tuesday.

I like the way this situation sets up for visiting Bowling Green as it looks to head into Bowl season on a high note with a win in Kalamazoo on Tuesday. The Falcons gained Bowl eligibility thanks to a four-game winning streak from October 14th to November 8th. They saw that streak snapped at the hands of Toledo last week, albeit by the slimmest of margins (one point). I don't expect any sort of letdown, even as they've fallen out of contention for the MAC Championship. This is an experienced, well-coached team under Scott Loeffler and I like their chances of bouncing back against a Western Michigan squad that is simply playing out the string. While the motivation should certainly be there for the Broncos on Senior Night, not to mention the fact that they're coming off an ugly shutout defeat against Northern Illinois that ended their hopes of reaching a Bowl game, that doesn't mean the execution will be. The Broncos have been wildly inconsistent in their first year under head coach Lance Taylor. Western Michigan's offense has shown flashes of brilliance but will need to be extremely careful against a turnover and sack-happy Falcons defense on Tuesday. Last year, Bowling Green held Western Michigan to just nine points in a four-point victory. This time around, I think we see a lot more production out of the Falcons offense on their way to a seventh victory on the campaign. Take Bowling Green (10*).

Pac-12 Game of the Week. My selection is on Oregon State minus the points over Washington at 7:30 pm et on Saturday.

It's been an incredible 10-0 start to the season for Washington and it deserves all the credit for that flawless record. I do expect it to fall for the first time on Saturday, however, as it heads to Corvallis to face a revenge-minded Oregon State squad. The Beavers dropped last year's matchup against the Huskies 24-21. That was in Seattle. Oregon State sports a perfect 5-0 record at home this season, most recently crushing Stanford by a 62-17 score last Saturday. I don't think the Beavers defense gets enough credit, overshadowed by that explosive offensive that showed up against the Cardinal last week. The Huskies have been in close game after close game lately and have certainly shown signs of wear defensively, allowing 108 points over their last three contests. Take Oregon State (10*).

My selection is on Air Force minus the points over UNLV at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

UNLV has enjoyed a tremendous season and would appear to be catching Air Force at the right time as the Falcons have lost each of their last two games SU and ATS. With that being said, I don't believe this is a favorable matchup for the Runnin' Rebels stylistically-speaking, and look for the Falcons to prevail. Air Force's defense continues to play well but the offense has been stuck in the mud over the last couple of games. I'm confident the Falcons can bounce back against a beatable UNLV defense here, noting that the Rebels have allowed 120+ rushing yards in four of their last five games, despite game script favoring them in most contests. It hasn't mattered what UNLV has thrown at Air Force defensively in the last couple of seasons, with the Falcons racking up nearly 1,000 total yards while scoring 90 points in two meetings. Take Air Force (8*).

Pac-12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and Arizona at 2:30 pm et on Saturday.

Both of these teams are coming off high-scoring games last week but I expect a different story to unfold as they match up in Tucson on Saturday. Utah is a better defensive team than it has shown in recent weeks but keep in mind it has run into USC, Oregon and Washington - three of the top offensive teams not just in the Pac-12 but in the country - in the last four games. Here, it draws a more manageable matchup in Arizona. The Wildcats have been rolling offensively but aren't likely to overwhelm the Utes talented defense. On the flip side, Utah has yet to complete 20 or more passes in a game this season, clearly missing QB Cam Rising. The Utes figure to lean on their ground attack again this week, although they'll be facing a Wildcats defense that has been stout against the run, holding opponents to just 3.2 yards per rush on the campaign. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on Washington State minus the points over Colorado at 10:30 pm et on Friday.

Washington State's current slide has really come out of nowhere. The Cougars got off to a terrific start this season before dropping six straight games and now even Bowl eligibility is in doubt as they need to win out, knowing that a very difficult matchup against in-state rival Washington lies ahead next week. Nevertheless, I do look for Washington State to finally turn in a complete performance and right the ship against a similarly sliding foe in Colorado on Friday. The Buffaloes have actually managed to win each of their last three games ATS but that's of little consolation as they've lost four in a row SU and will also need to win out to go 'Bowling' with a tough road tilt against Utah on deck next week. I simply like the Cougars advantages on defense here. They can't stop the run but that's by no means Colorado's m.o. on offense. Washington State did shine offensively last week against California, nearly pulling off a furious fourth quarter rally. It should be able to get loose again versus a Buffaloes squad that appears to be running out of gas having been licked for 124, 218, 195 and 211 rushing yards over their last four games. Take Washington State (8*).

My selection is on Florida plus the points over LSU at 7:30 pm et on Saturday.

The Gators are running out of real estate if they want to gain Bowl eligibility this season as they have this game followed by a difficult road test against Missouri and a home date with rival Florida State left on the schedule. I look for them to give the Tigers all they can handle on Saturday in the Bayou. Florida was routed against Georgia two weeks ago and then fell just short as a favorite against Arkansas last Saturday. It's been a rough ride for the Gators and while they're by no means an elite team, they do have enough talent to hang with most teams in the SEC on a good night. The Tigers had reeled off three straight wins, both SU and ATS before it all came crashing down against rival Alabama last Saturday. As a whole, LSU has been a disappointment this season, losing three games and going a modest 5-4 ATS along the way. The Tigers have had their hands full with the Gators essentially every year since 2011, when they crushed Florida by a 41-11 score. This doesn't look like the LSU team that suddenly regains complete control in this series. Take Florida (8*).

Pac-12 Game of the Week. My selection is on Washington State plus the points over California at 4 pm et on Saturday.

I'm not out on Washington State just yet. The Cougars have lost five games in a row, going 1-4 ATS over that stretch but I think they're in a smash spot against Cal on Saturday. The Golden Bears have dropped four games in a row and are a woeful 3-6 ATS on the campaign including 1-6 over their last seven contests. Washington State's recent slide has really come out of nowhere as it started the campaign with four straight wins and also gave UCLA and Oregon all it could handle in a couple of October road games. That's why I'm not ready to give up on the Cougars. Cal has employed a matador-like defense, yielding 203, 317, 128 and 153 rushing yards over its last four games. The Bears have been torched for 369 and 444 passing yards over the last two contests. Enough said. Take Washington State (10*).

Big Ten Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Northwestern and Wisconsin at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

While Iowa is getting all the attention for its extremely low-scoring games in the Big Ten this season, Wisconsin isn't far behind - or shouldn't be moving forward anyway. The Badgers have scored 14 points or less in three of their last four games as they deal with a cluster of key injuries on the offensive side of the football. Their defense has been less impacted and checks in having held eight of nine opponents to 24 points or less this season. Northwestern has shown flashes on offense but has stagnated as usual for the most part. The Wildcats are coming off a 10-7 loss to Iowa last week. In four road games this season Northwestern has produced 7, 14, 9 and 7 points. Wisconsin has scored 35 and 42 points in the last two meetings in this series but I don't expect it to come close to that level of production on Saturday. Take the under (10*).

Mountain West Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on UNLV minus the points over Wyoming at 10:45 pm et on Friday.

While few are paying much attention, the Runnin' Rebels have a special thing going in Las Vegas this season. They're off to a 7-2 start to the campaign and still have more runway in front of them with three games left on the schedule, including this matchup with Wyoming on Friday night. UNLV demolished New Mexico State by a 56-14 score last Saturday, on the road no less. It's been a case of no Doug Brumfield, no problem for the Runnin' Rebels offense as backup QB Jayden Maiava has stepped in and performed admirably. UNLV boasts a multi-pronged offensive attack that is a handful for the best of defenses and I certainly wouldn't put Wyoming in that category. Yes, the Cowboys have come up big at times this season, most recently last Friday as they secured Bowl eligibility with a 24-15 home win over Colorado State. This isn't a team that travels well, however, noting that Wyoming has gone 0-3 away from home this season, albeit against tough opposition in Texas, Air Force and Boise State, losing those three games by a combined 53 points. Cowboys QB Andrew Peasley continues to struggle, noting that as a team, they've completed more than 18 passes in a game just once this season and that came in a contest where they threw for just 199 yards against Fresno State. Last Friday, the ground attack exploded led by RB Harrison Waylee but again, those performances have been few and far between this season. Wyoming has owned this series for the most part, taking the most recent two meetings by 36 and 31 points. Those came back in 2019 and 2020, however. The Runnin' Rebels are a much different team right now and I look for them to prove it again in front of a national audience on Friday night. Take UNLV (10*).

My selection is on Louisville minus the points over Virginia at 7:30 pm et on Thursday.

Ordinarily I wouldn't want any part of backing a team coming off consecutive blowout wins, playing at home against an opponent that doesn't exactly draw a great deal of motivation. Here, I'm willing to make an exception, however. Virginia reeled off five straight ATS wins from late September through October but that streak ended with a thud in a 45-17 home loss against Georgia Tech on Saturday, ending the Cavaliers faint hopes of becoming Bowl eligible. There was no way the Yellow Jackets were going to be caught sleep-walking in that matchup after Virginia upset North Carolina and nearly did the same against Miami, both on the road. I'm not about to chalk the Cavaliers up as road warriors, however, and I see this as a complete mismatch against Louisville. The Cardinals have quietly been one of the best defensive teams in the country this season, all but snuffing out opposing ground attacks entirely, which really puts a wrench in what the Cavaliers want to do on Thursday. Louisville also knows how to take the air out of the football and put games away after building a lead here at home, notching victories by 28 points over Boston College, 13 points over Notre Dame, 23 points over Duke and most recently 31 points over Virginia Tech last Saturday. The schedule will get much tougher for the Cardinals over the final two weeks of the regular season as they travel to Miami before hosting in-state rival Kentucky. Look for Louisville to make the most of this ramp-up game on Thursday, noting that it is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 lined home contests while Virginia is a woeful 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games after winning five or six of its last seven contests ATS, as is the case here. Take Louisville (8*).

Pac-12 Game of the Week. My selection is on Washington State minus the points over Stanford at 9 pm et on Saturday.

The Cougars have fallen on hard times after a terrific start to the season, dropping four games in a row while going 1-3 ATS over that stretch. They looked like they simply ran out of gas in their second straight road game last week as they lost outright as four-point favorites in Tempe. I like the bounce-back spot for Washington State here as it hosts Stanford, which gave mighty Washington all it could handle as a big underdog in Seattle last Saturday. The Cardinal are still just one game removed from a 42-7 home loss against UCLA. There was also a 42-6 beatdown at the hands of Oregon in late September. In other words, the Cardinal are extremely inconsistent. I was high on Washington State at the start of the season and despite its rough ride recently, I still believe this team has the potential to make some noise down the stretch, culminating with a big opportunity to play spoiler against rival Washington in the Apple Cup on November 25th. Note that the Cougars are a long-term 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games when coming off a contest where they didn't force a single turnover, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 13.4 points in that situation. Take Washington State (10*).

ACC Game of the Month. My selection is on Pittsburgh plus the points over Florida State at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

Florida State is rolling right now having won eight straight games to open the campaign including each of its last three ATS. I look for its ATS winning streak to come to an end on Saturday, however, as it faces a bit of a tough spot to get up for against a 2-6 Pittsburgh squad. We know the Panthers will be up for this one after nothing went right for them in last week's 58-7 drubbing in South Bend. Keep in mind, Pitt had been playing competitive football - the last time we saw it on this field it laid waste to a good Louisville team by a 38-21 score. Of its six losses this season, last week's was the first to come by more than 17 points. There's a level of unfamiliarity between these two conference foes, noting they've met only twice all-time with the most recent coming in 2020 (Pitt won that game 41-17 in Tallahassee). Take Pittsburgh (10*).

My selection is on Utah minus the points over Arizona State at 2 pm et on Saturday.

The Utes were crushed 35-6 at home against Oregon last week. They're not a team built for coming back from big deficits, not with QB Cam Rising sidelined, and it showed as that contest got away from them in a hurry. Here, I expect a much different game script to unfold as Utah looks to bounce back at home against Arizona State. The Sun Devils are in a certain letdown spot after snapping their six-game losing streak with an upset win at home against Washington State last week. Arizona State is still going nowhere this season and will be hard-pressed to find another win on its remaining schedule. I look for the Utes to clamp down defensively while their offense rebounds following last week's putrid performance (they had scored exactly 34 points in consecutive games entering that contest). Take Utah (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Boston College and Syracuse at 7:30 pm et on Friday.

I think everyone wants to believe in this Syracuse offense but it's just not there this season. The Orange have been held to 34 points in their last four games combined. That's no fluke. They're quite simply playing awful football right now. I do have faith in the Syracuse defense, led by its back-end, here at home, however. The Orange have allowed 38+ points in three straight games. This is a matchup they can handle though. Boston College mustered only 21 points in last week's win over lowly Connecticut. The Eagles have found their ground game and they're willing to hang their hat on it right now having rushed for 200+ yards in four straight games and 300+ in two of those contests. Defensively, the Eagles have incredibly held all but one of their eight opponents to 18 pass completions or fewer. Take the under (8*).

Big 12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between TCU and Texas Tech at 7 pm et on Thursday.

We're working with a considerably lower posted total than we saw in last year's matchup between these two teams. After all, that game reached 'only' 58 total points and both teams are coming off dismal offensive showings in their most recent game. I do think we'll see plenty of points on the board on Thursday, however, as this game has shootout potential. Few opponents have bombed away on the TCU defense this season. But we know it's possible as Colorado ripped the Horned Frogs for 38-of-47 passing for over 500 yards back in Week 1. While it has been somewhat game-script dependent, Texas Tech is coming off a pair of games in which it aired it out 49 and 37 times. Meanwhile, the Red Raiders ground attack has churned out 153 or more rushing yards in seven straight games. TCU won't shy away from slinging it all over the field either, noting that it has completed at least 21 passes in all eight games so far this season with three 300+ passing yard games. The Horned Frogs have racked up over 100 rushing yards in all eight games this season. Neither team has had a tendency to hold onto the football for long stretches with both averaging right around 27 minutes per game in terms of time of possession. I think that quick-strike potential will be there all night long in Lubbock. Take the over (10*).

Mountain West Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on UNLV plus the points over Fresno State at 10:30 pm et on Saturday.

UNLV has a good thing going this season even if few are paying much attention. The Runnin' Rebels have already gained Bowl eligibility with their sixth win of the season coming last week against Colorado State. They've got their sights set on much bigger goals, however, as they go after an elusive Mountain West Conference title. Taking down Fresno State, which checks in with an identical 6-1 record this season, would certainly be a step in the right direction. Note that while the Rebels have lost five straight matchups in this series, they've been right there in each of the last two seasons, losing by just eight and seven points. This year's UNLV squad is arguably much better than both of those teams, yet it isn't being offered much respect in the betting marketplace. Fresno State has beaten up on some awful teams this season and also lost a game as a five-point favorite on the road against Wyoming. The Bulldogs marquee win came back in Week 1 on the road against Purdue as QB Mikey Keene balled out with nearly 400 yards passing and four touchdowns. His status remains up in the air for this game as he continues to recover from injury. Backup Logan Fife has performed admirably in his absence but he's not the same playmaker Keene is. Regardless who is under center for Fresno State on Saturday, I believe UNLV has the personnel to keep pace. Put the Bulldogs on 'upset alert' as we grab all the points we can get with the Rebels. Take UNLV (10*).

My selection is on Georgia minus the points over Florida at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

The injury to Georgia TE Brock Bowers seems to have a lot of bettors a little spooked as we head into this pre-Halloween rivalry tilt between the Bulldogs and Gators in Jacksonville. The Bulldogs have been a massive disappointment from a betting perspective this season, going 1-5-1 ATS to date but I look for them to shake loose for a convincing victory on Saturday. Florida is coming off back-to-back SU and ATS wins - those were much-needed following a modest 3-2 start to the campaign. But the Gators bye week probably came at the worst time and now they need to get rolling from a standing start against arguably the best team in the country. Note that Georgia has dominated Florida lately, taking the last three meetings by 16, 27 and 22 points. I don't think there's any reason to believe this edition of the Gators can keep things any closer, even if the oddsmakers anticipate otherwise. Note that only two of Georgia's seven games to date have been decided by fewer than 17 points. Take Georgia (8*).

Pac-12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Oregon and Utah at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

Both of these teams are coming off high-scoring 'over' results last week - in the last two weeks, in fact. I expect a reversal of course here on Saturday as the Ducks travel to face the Utes. Oregon has looked downright unstoppable at times this season but Washington State actually managed to lay out a pretty good blueprint for slowing the Ducks high-powered offense for the better part of the first half last week. I expect the Utes, who own one of the best defenses in the nation, to turn in a strong performance here at home, where they've allowed just 39 points in four games this season. Note that last year the Utes travelled to Autzen Stadium and limited the Ducks to just 20 points in a three-point defeat. On the flip side, the Ducks defense doesn't get nearly the credit or attention it deserves, largely due to the team's electric offense. Favored on the road, there's nothing for Oregon's defense to fear with the Utes still dealing with inconsistent play at the quarterback position. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on Syracuse plus the points over Virginia Tech at 7:30 pm et on Thursday.

The Orange have gone into a tailspin since their 4-0 start, dropping each of their last three games. Of course, they've run the gauntlet lately going up against Clemson, North Carolina and Florida State and won't get any sort of a breather travelling to Blacksburg to face the Hokies on Thursday. I do like their chances of rebounding here, however, with many of their key parts still on board from the 2021 team that prevailed by a 41-36 score in Blacksburg almost two years to the day. If there was one positive for Syracuse to take away from its ugly 41-3 rout at the hands of Florida State last time out it was that it kept Seminoles QB Jordan Travis' running under wraps. That at least gave the Orange a good sense of the speed they'll be facing at quarterback this week in the form of Hokies dual-threat QB Kyron Drones. Virginia Tech is coming off a 30-13 win over Wake Forest - a game in which Drones threw for over 300 yards. That's certainly not his game, noting that it was the first time this season he threw for more than 228 yards. If Drones tries to attack the Orange too often through the air in this one he's likely to be punished for any mistakes by the outstanding DB duo of Alijah Clark and Justin Barron who have inexplicably produced just two interceptions so far this season. Syracuse QB Garrett Shrader has been sacked a whopping nine times during the team's current three-game losing streak. I do think the extra week of practice should work in his favor here as the Orange offensive line certainly had some issues that needed to be worked out. I would anticipate the Orange getting Shrader on the move more than we've seen in recent weeks after he got bogged down by tough North Carolina and Florida State defenses over the last couple of games. The Hokies defensive front poses a difficult challenge as well but at least Shrader has played (and succeeded) in this environment before - he threw for 236 yards and two touchdowns and ran for 174 yards and three scores in that 2021 matchup on this field. Take Syracuse (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between UTEP and Sam Houston State at 8 pm et on Wednesday.

I think UTEP 'under' bettors have been lulled into a false sense of security after they reeled off three consecutive 'under' results. Tonight's opponent, winless Sam Houston State, has found a little something offensively in recent games with QB Keegan Shoemaker showing signs of progress, throwing for six touchdowns and just two interceptions while running for 124 yards over the last three games. The Bearkats haven't stuck with the run at all this season but figure to feast on a UTEP defense that has hemorrhaged 5.1 yards per rush this season if they so choose. Sam Houston State's defense hasn't lived up to expectations this season, part of that has been due to simply being on the field way too much thanks to an inefficient offense. Miners RB Deion Hankins has gotten better as the season has gone on, rushing for 265 yards over the last three games and I expect him to be the focal point of the offense here as well. While run plays are generally an 'under' bettors best friend, I think there's a good chance UTEP runs all over the Sam Houston State defense on Wednesday. Sitting at 0-7 on the campaign, the Bearkats certainly haven't learned how to 'take the air out of the football' playing with a lead at this level (it's their first year in FBS) and I feel that lends itself to a back-and-forth affair that creeps 'over' the low posted total on Wednesday. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on UCLA minus the points over Stanford at 10:30 pm et on Saturday.

Stanford pulled off a stunning come-from-behind victory over Colorado last week, taking full advantage of a young Buffaloes squad that is still learning how to take the air out of the football and close out a game. The Cardinal won't be so fortunate here as they host a UCLA squad that will surely be in a foul mood following a turnover-fuelled loss at Oregon State last week. In that contest, the Bruins approached 500 total yards of offense for a second straight game but coughed up the football three times. That's something you simply can't do against a team as good as Oregon State. I'm confident we'll see Chip Kelly's Bruins get right back on track this week as they face a Cardinal squad that doesn't do anything particularly well. Stanford did catch a spark with its passing game last week, throwing for a season-high 399 yards. Note that UCLA has allowed just 6.3 yards per pass attempt this season and has been even better against the run, yielding only 2.3 yards per rush. Take UCLA (8*).

Pac-12 Game of the Week. My selection is on Washington State plus the points over Oregon at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

Washington State limps into this matchup on the heels of consecutive losses but I look for the Cougars to give the Ducks all they can handle on Saturday. Last year, Washington State let Oregon off the hook at home, leading 17-9 at halftime but ultimately fell in a 44-41 thriller. You would have to go back five meetings in this series to find the last time the Cougars managed to secure a victory and while they'll be hard-pressed to do so in Eugene on Saturday, I do think they can give the Ducks a run. Oregon came out on the wrong end of a 36-33 decision on the road against Washington last Saturday. Note that the Ducks are a long-term 20-37 ATS when coming off a road defeat, outscoring opponents by just 1.1 point on average in that situation. The Cougars have turned the football over seven times during their two-game losing streak but they should be happy to face the Ducks, noting that they've forced a single turnover or less in five of six games so far this season. Take Washington State (10*).

My selection is on Boston College plus the points over Georgia Tech at 12 noon et on Saturday.

Boston College has found something over its last couple of games, both victories over Virginia and Army, rushing for a total of 504 yards while continuing its incredibly consistent scoring pace. The Eagles have put up at least 24 points in all six games this season - a welcome change for a program that seemed to be stuck in the mud offensively in recent years. That's more than can be said for Georgia Tech, which is coming off a thrilling 23-20 win over Miami (the Hurricanes let the Yellow Jackets off the hook in that game by electing not to take a knee in the final minute). Were it not for that gaffe by Miami we would be talking about a Georgia Tech squad that is 2-4 this season. Also note that the Yellow Jackets are yielding 5.1 yards per rush this season, opening the door for the underdog Eagles to effectively shorten proceedings on Saturday. You would have to go back four matchups in this series - all the way to 2012 - to find the last time the Yellow Jackets defeated the Eagles by more than a field goal. I can't help but feel this one will be nip-and-tuck all the way. Take Boston College (8*).

Sun Belt Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Marshall plus the points over James Madison at 7 pm et on Thursday.

Marshall got off to a red hot 4-0 start to the season but has since lost consecutive road games to fall to 4-2, dropping all the way back to fifth place in the Sun Belt Conference standings. I like the bounce-back spot for the Thundering Herd on Thursday as they host undefeated James Madison. The Dukes will be looking for their fourth road win of the season, a feat they didn't accomplish all of last year. Marshall has proven tough on the opposition here at home where it checks in a perfect 3-0. This will be a 'revenge game' for James Madison after it dropped a 26-12 decision as a 9.5-point home favorite against Marshall. Of course, revenge is generally a dish best served at home and I like the Thundering Herd's chances of holding serve behind a big game from QB Cam Fancher and RB Rasheen Ali. James Madison has seen many of its opponents abandon the run but I don't believe that will be the case with Marshall, noting that it has ripped off more than 100 rushing yards in all six games this season. Take Marshall (10*).

Pac-12 Game of the Week. My selection is on Washington minus the points over Oregon at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

The road team has won three straight meetings in this series but I look for that streak to come to an end on Saturday in Seattle. Oregon has turned in three straight near-perfect performances, crushing Hawaii 55-10 before dismantling Colorado and Stanford by identical 42-6 scores. The Ducks figure to get a wake-up call on Saturday, however, as they take on fellow undefeated Pac-12 squad Washington. The Huskies boast one of the most innovative offensive attacks in college football this season, perhaps taking a page out of the Ducks book. Washington was involved in more of a fight than expected last Saturday as it outlasted Arizona by a touchdown in Tucson. Here, I look for the Huskies defense to pave the way as they should be able to get home against Ducks QB Bo Nix on numerous occasions. We know what to expect from the Washington offense but I believe it's defense remains underrated, even as we approach the midpoint of October. Take Washington (10*).

My selection is on Maryland minus the points over Illinois at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

Maryland predictably dropped its first game of the season last week in Columbus, falling by 20 points after getting off to a fast start against the Buckeyes. The Terrapins needed to turn in a perfectly clean performance to contend with mighty Ohio State but ended up giving the Buckeyes a pair of extra possessions by way of turnovers. That left enough daylight for Ohio State to run away with the game late. Here, I look for Maryland to bounce back as it hosts a listless Illinois squad that is 2-4 SU and 0-6 ATS this season, most recently failing to show up in a big primetime home game against Nebraska. That was a win the Illini needed but didn't come close to getting. I don't see them picking themselves up off the mat here. This will be the Terps fifth home game already this season and they've blasted away on this field, averaging 5.2 yards per rush and 8.8 yards per pass attempt. Any progress the Illini have made on the road has come in garbage time for the most part in lopsided losses at Kansas and Purdue. Take Maryland (8*).

My selection is on Utah minus the points over California at 3 pm et on Saturday.

Utah has had two weeks to figure things out following an ugly 21-7 loss to Oregon State. The Utes still have everything in front of them, sitting at 4-1 on the season. With that being said, they've looked punch-drunk on offense with QB Cam Rising sidelined. He's unlikely to play again this week but I look for a much sharper performance from the Utes against a Cal defense that has taken a pounding to this point, most recently allowing 52 points against aforementioned Oregon State last week. Speaking of taking a pounding, the Bears ground attack has been relied upon heavily and is starting to show some signs of wear with Jaydn Ott forced to leave last week's game but likely to return in time for Saturday's contest. I'm not sure it matters who the Bears have out there on Saturday, the Utes defense should feast. Utah checks in having allowed just 59 points through five games this season. Even if the Utes offense sputters again, the defense should be up to the task against a Cal offense that has committed multiple turnovers in four of six games this season. Take Utah (8*).

My selection is on Fresno State minus the points over Utah State at 8 pm et on Friday.

Fresno State fell out of the top-25 rankings following last week's upset loss at Wyoming. The Bulldogs lost QB Mikey Keene to an ankle injury in that game and with word coming out that he's unlikely to play on Friday, this line has shifted toward Utah State. I don't agree with the move, noting that Keene's backup, Logan Fife, was arguably the front-runner for the starting job heading into fall camp and he should relish the opportunity to take over the reins in a big bounce-back game for the team on Friday. Fife knows the playbook having seen action in each of the last two seasons. While he has by no means thrived, turnovers have been the biggest issue. The good news is, he'll be facing a sieve-like Utah State defense on Friday. The Aggies rallied from an early 17-0 deficit to blast Colorado State by 20 points last week. I expect them to find the going much tougher against a terrific Fresno State defense on Friday. The strength in the Bulldogs defense lies in the second and third levels, and that's precisely where Aggies QB Cooper Legas likes to attack. I would worry about Legas getting a little over-zealous after he successfully bombed away on a bad Colorado State defense last week. Legas, like Fife, has been turnover-prone throughout his college career but the difference here is that Fresno State has the ball-hawkers on defense to take advantage of any mistakes. I think we can forgive the Bulldogs for a flat performance in Laramie last week. Keep in mind this is a team used to playing in front of 40,000+ in Fresno, nearly double what Wyoming (or Utah State) draws. Look for them to get their season back on track in this primetime affair. Take Fresno State (8*).

My selection is on Houston plus the points over West Virginia at 7 pm et on Thursday.

The bye week couldn't have come at a better time for Dana Holgorsen's Houston Cougars. They're off to a disappointing 2-3 start to the season, most recently blown out by Texas Tech in Lubbock on September 30th. It's not too late to turn things around but bagging a victory over Holgorsen's former team is paramount with a home date with Texas on deck before back-to-back sneaky-tough road tilts at Kansas State and Baylor. With only two victories to date, the Cougars could run out of real estate in a hurry in terms of Bowl eligibility if they can't hold serve on Thursday. You could argue that the bye week came at an awful time for West Virginia as it was rolling after four straight wins including a 24-21 upset victory at TCU. The Mountaineers lost one of their best defenders in LB Trey Lathan to a scary knee injury in that contest. That's bad news for a West Virginia team that has been fuelled by its defense in the early going this season. These two offenses are almost mirror images of one another, led by mobile quarterbacks in Garrett Greene of the Mountaineers and Donovan Smith of the Cougars. I like Houston's advantage with former West Virginia standouts RB Tony Mathis and WR Samuel Brown poised to ball out. For my money, Brown is the best offensive player on the field in this matchup. Take Houston (8*).

My selection is on Sam Houston State plus the points over New Mexico State at 9 pm et on Wednesday.

Sam Houston State checks into this game sporting an 0-5 record on the season. Even if it could get just a little something out of its offense it might be in a much different situation right now. I think it's only a matter of time before the Bearkats pick up that first victory in FBS play and New Mexico State could very well be ripe for the picking. It's not as if the Aggies are setting the world on fire offensively. They hung 34 points on a bad Florida International team last week but 17 of those came in the fourth quarter. They're just one game removed from scoring only 17 points in a loss at Hawaii. While I do like New Mexico State QB Diego Pavia, Sam Houston State has the talent on defense to keep him under wraps all night long. The Bearkats offense did make some progress last week as QB Keegan Shoemaker threw for 255 yards and a pair of touchdowns and also added 52 yards on the ground. I don't expect this team to be discouraged by its 0-5 start noting that it isn't eligible for a Bowl game in its first year in the FBS anyway. Take Sam Houston State (8*).

My selection is on Georgia minus the points over Kentucky at 7 pm et on Saturday.

This game will get top billing thanks to the fact that both teams enter with flawless records. I expect it to be no contest, however, as Georgia proves why it is the 'Big Dawg' so to speak in SEC play. Kentucky threw a knockout punch early against Florida last week, ultimately sending the Gators spiralling down the drain in what turned out to be a rather lifeless performance. The Wildcats aren't likely to catch the Bulldogs off guard here though, not after giving them all they could handle in a 16-6 loss last season. Georgia is off to a disappointing 0-4-1 ATS start but it's worth noting that it was favored by 40 or more points in three of those games. This is the part of the schedule where I expect the Dawgs to really get rolling as they play three of their next five games in Athens with a showdown with the rival Gators in Jacksonville mixed in. Kentucky can get right back on track next week as it hosts Missouri, but here I look for it to come away looking rather ordinary. Note that Georgia is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games as a favorite priced between 10.5 and 21 points, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 29.8 points along the way. Take Georgia (8*).

My selection is on Florida State minus the points over Virginia Tech at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

The Hokies are coming off a blowout win over a disappointing Pittsburgh squad last week so it may appear to be a bargain catching 3+ touchdowns as they go up against Florida State on Saturday. The Seminoles, however, are coming off their bye week and one of the best teams in the entire nation. I expect Florida State to make yet another statement here. Keep in mind, Virginia Tech has lost its two previous road games by 19 points at Rutgers and seven points at Marshall. The Hokies are in a bit of a state of flux right now with QB Grant Wells nursing an injury and ineffective at the best of times. Virginia Tech has completed fewer than 20 passes in all five games so far this season and that's telling when you consider it has been playing from behind most of the way. Look for the 'Noles to get whatever they want on offense en route to a lopsided victory. Take Florida State (8*).

Pac-12 Game of the Month. My selection is on UCLA minus the points over Washington State at 3 pm et on Saturday.

Both of these teams enter this game off their bye week. I think it came at precisely the right time for Chip Kelly's Bruins as they had plenty to sort out following an ugly 14-7 road loss against Utah. Meanwhile, Washington State probably wanted to keep its foot on the gas after a red hot 4-0 start that included a thrilling 38-35 home win over Oregon State on September 23rd. It's tough for the betting marketplace to glean much from UCLA's 3-1 start. The wins were of the lukewarm variety over Coastal Carolina and San Diego State before a predictable blowout victory over FCS opponent N.C. Central. This is obviously a key spot for the Bruins before heading out on the road for consecutive games against Oregon State and Stanford where a split is likely the best they can hope for. For Washington State, it gets a winnable home date with Arizona next before travelling to face Oregon in a tough matchup. I think UCLA has an offense that will rip off plenty of big plays against a beatable Washington State defense on Saturday. While I do like the Cougars pass rush, we can anticipate the Bruins offensive line turning in a strong bounce-back showing off the poor performance against Utah. Take UCLA (10*).

My selection is on Ohio State minus the points over Maryland at 12 noon et on Saturday.

While Maryland enters this contest sporting a perfect 5-0 record, I think this is the game where its offensive line woes come home to roost, so to speak. The Terrapins have reeled off three straight ATS victories but will be taking a step up in class after lining up against Virginia, Michigan State and Indiana over the last three weeks. Meanwhile, Ohio State comes in fresh off its bye week, which came on the heels of a war against Notre Dame in South Bend - a game which the Buckeyes won by a score of 17-14. This game figures to be of the higher-scoring variety and that should favor Ohio State as Maryland simply doesn't have the horses to keep up in a potential shootout. I am high on Terps QB Taulia Tagovailoa, even going so far as to say he's one of, if not the most underrated quarterback in the country this year. With that said, I expect him to be under duress for most of the game on Saturday. The Terps have benefited from a whopping 12 turnovers by the opposition already this season. The shoe will be on the other foot on Saturday. Note that Maryland is a long-term 19-34 ATS when coming off a home win over a conference opponent, as is the case here. Take Ohio State (8*).

Big Ten Game of the Year. My selection is on Illinois minus the points over Nebraska at 8 pm et on Friday.

The Illinois bandwagon cleared following its 34-23 road loss against Kansas back in Week 2 (also on a Friday night). Since then, the Illini have done nothing to win bettors back, sandwiching lopsided defeats against Penn State and Purdue around a narrow home win over Florida Atlantic. I do see this as a 'get right' game for the Illini off last week's beatdown at the hands of Purdue. Illinois has a lot more going for it than Nebraska right now in my opinion. We've seen the Illini turn the tables on the Cornhuskers over the last few seasons, reeling off three straight wins in this series after dropping four in a row previously. I don't believe this is the Huskers squad to turn the tide in this series. Nebraska gave QB Heinrich Haarberg the start against Michigan last Saturday after he turned in an eye-popping performance against Louisiana Tech. The problem is, much of his success has come on the ground, not through the air. Michigan laid out a pretty good blueprint for stopping Haarberg last Saturday, as he was sacked four times and gained -2 yards on nine rush attempts. He has now completed just 38-of-72 passes this season. The Illini have a true dual-threat quarterback in Luke Altmyer. He was lifted for backup John Paddock late in last week's game at Purdue after the Boilermakers raced out to an insurmountable lead in the third quarter. I like the bounce-back spot for Altmyer and the Illini as a whole on Friday. WR Isaiah Williams has gotten going over the last couple of games, racking up 233 receiving yards on 14 catches. He's capable of laying waste to a Huskers defense that was dusted for 170 yards by Colorado WR Xavier Weaver earlier this season. Take Illinois (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Western Kentucky and Louisiana Tech at 8 pm et on Thursday.

Last week's potential shootout involving Western Kentucky fizzled as Middle Tennessee State couldn't get anything going offensively in what turned out to be a lopsided affair. Here, I do expect that shootout to develop as the Hilltoppers head out on the road to face Louisiana Tech in Ruston on Thursday. While the Bulldogs allowed just 10 points in last week's victory, that came against one of the weakest offenses in the country in UTEP. They'll be facing a much different animal this week as Western Kentucky has displayed a sky-high scoring ceiling this season, putting up 41, 52, 10 (against Ohio State), 24 and 31 points. Note that Louisiana Tech allowed three touchdowns over a 14-minute stretch against a lukewarm Nebraska offense just two weeks ago. The Bulldogs also gave up 40 points against North Texas and 38 against SMU earlier this season. The question is whether Louisiana Tech can ramp up its own offense to keep pace. It remains up in the air whether QB Hank Bachmeier can return from injury for Louisiana Tech this week. Even if he can't go, I think Jack Turner can get the offense going in his third consecutive start. We saw positive flashes in that aforementioned game against Nebraska as he threw for 292 yards and a score while also gaining positive yardage on the ground. The Bulldogs do have gamebreakers around Turner in RB Tyre Shelton (104 rush yards on 16 carries last week) and Ole Miss transfer WR Smoke Harris. (returned a punt for a touchdown last week). Take the over (8*).

Conference-USA Game of the Month. My selection is on Middle Tennessee State minus the points over Jacksonville State at 8 pm et on Wednesday.

Middle Tennessee State got punched in the mouth on the road against Western Kentucky last week and ultimately couldn't overcome an off night from QB Nicholas Vattiato in a 31-10 defeat. The Blue Raiders are now just 1-4 on the season making this virtually a must-win game if they want to sniff out Bowl eligibility with seven games remaining on the schedule. Jacksonville State is well on its way in its first year of FBS play, reeling off four wins in its first five contests including an overtime victory at Sam Houston State last week. You know what you're going to get from the Gamecocks. They're going to run the football and look to create chaos on defense. The good news for the Blue Raiders is that stopping the run has been their calling card under long-time head coach Rick Stockstill (they've yielded a mediocre 4.1 yards per rush this season). This was always going to be a critical two-game road stretch for Jacksonville State and it has already earned at least a split. It's an equally critical two-game homestand for Middle Tennessee State with a matchup against a sneaky-good Louisiana Tech squad on deck next week. I think the Blue Raiders have a lot more upside on offense than they showed against a good Western Kentucky team last week. Their ground game has just gotten going recently, ripping off 217, 151 and 127 rushing yards over their last three games. Jacksonville State is up-and-coming but Middle Tennessee State has been doing it at this level for years, reaching eight Bowl games in the last 13 years including each of the last two (it defeated San Diego State in the Hawaii Bowl last year). This may be a bit of a rebuilding year for the Blue Raiders but I expect them to rise to the occasion at home on Wednesday. Take Middle Tennessee State (10*).

My selection is on TCU minus the points over West Virginia at 8 pm et on Saturday.

Everyone was quick to point out that TCU was in line for a down year following its season-opening loss to Prime's Colorado Buffaloes. Of course, it was always going to be extremely difficult for the Horned Frogs to match last season's success but that doesn't mean it has to be a 'down year'. I like how TCU has responded since that setback, reeling off three straight wins in blowout fashion (with little fanfare). The fact that few are paying much attention to the Horned Frogs right now gives us the opportunity to back them at a reasonable price at home against West Virginia on Saturday. The Mountaineers have also responded to a season-opening loss with three straight victories. All three of those came at home, however. I suspect they're in for a rude awakening here as they run into a TCU team that has found its rhythm on offense and appears to be locked-in defensively, allowing just 2.5 yards per rush this season. Given the way the Horned Frogs have snuffed out opposing ground attacks, if West Virginia can't get its passing game going early it's likely to be a long night. Note that the Mountaineers have only thrown for 636 yards in total through four games. Take TCU (8*).

Big 12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Texas minus the points over Kansas at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

I'm just as high on Kansas as most but I think it's in the wrong place at the wrong time on Saturday as it travels to Austin to face the Longhorns. Both teams check in a perfect 4-0 on the season but as you know, all records aren't created equal. The Jayhawks best win arguably came last week at home against BYU but the Cougars are a much easier opponent to handle when you get them away from Lavell-Edwards Stadium. Texas has a 10-point win over Alabama in Tuscaloosa to its credit and absolutely lambasted Baylor in Waco last week, rolling to a 38-6 victory. The Longhorns took a wild 57-56 home loss to Kansas in 2021 personally, responding with a 55-14 demolition in this matchup last year. That was on the road. Things certainly won't get easier for the Jayhawks in enemy territory this time around. Call me crazy but I actually like Kansas' offense a little more with QB Jason Bean at the helm. That's not a knock on Jalon Daniels. I simply think Bean should be more involved in the offseason, even with Daniels QB1. Here, we'll note that Kansas is a long-term 2-11 ATS when priced as a road underdog between 14 and 17.5 points, as is the case at the time of writing, outscored by an average margin of 27.0 points in that situation. Take Texas (10*).

My selection is on Boston College minus the points over Virginia at 2 pm et on Saturday.

It's been a tough stretch for Virginia both as a football program and a school community in general following the events of last Fall. The Cavaliers are off to a predictable 0-4 start this season (they were priced as underdogs in all four games) and I'm not convinced this is the spot where they'll earn their first win of the campaign (that likely comes next week at home against FCS opponent William & Mary). Still searching for answers at the skill positions on offense, they'll have their hands full against a Boston College defense that will undoubtedly be in a foul mood after getting wrecked for 56 points on the road against Louisville last Saturday. That was an awful spot for the Eagles. This is a favorable one as they return home where we last saw them give potential national title contender Florida State all it could handle in an eventual 31-29 defeat. Here, we'll note that Boston College is a perfect 7-0 ATS the last seven times it has played at home after trailing its previous game by 24 points or more at halftime, which is the situation it is in on Saturday, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 13.3 points in that spot. Take Boston College (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Utah State and Connecticut at 12 noon et on Saturday.

Everyone is waiting for Utah State to repeat its 78-point explosion earlier this season against Idaho State but it's just not going to happen. The Aggies did put up 38 points (in a losing effort) on the road against James Madison last week but that was thanks in large part to five Dukes turnovers. I expect Connecticut to take care of the football at the very least on Saturday (turnovers aren't really something we can accurately predict) as it looks to salvage something from this three-game homestand. The Huskies are 0-4 to start the season, topping out at 17 points in a game. While Utah State has given up its share of points this season, this is no gimme matchup for a sputtering UConn offense. Remember, the Aggies did hold Iowa to 24 points on fewer than 300 total yards of offense in its season-opener on the road, so they're capable of rising to the occasion defensively here. The Huskies gave up 31 points in last year's matchup with Utah State but that was on the road against a more talented Aggies offense than the one they'll face on Saturday. Utah State's top two contributors on that day were RB Calvin Tyler Jr. and WR Brian Cobbs. Both have since moved on and were late cuts at NFL training camps in August. Take the under (8*).

SEC Game of the Year. My selection is on Kentucky over Florida at 12 noon et on Saturday.

Kentucky has defeated Florida in each of the last two seasons and there's little reason to believe that this is the Gators squad to rise up and end that streak. Florida has turned things around with three straight victories but I haven't forgotten its toothless performance on the road against Utah in its season-opener. The Wildcats have predictably dismantled all four of their opponents to date (they were favored by double-digits in all four games). I think we'll see Kentucky keep it rolling here, knowing it is likely headed for its first loss of the campaign by way of a trip to Athens to face the number-one ranked Georgia Bulldogs next week. For the Gators, they can likely pick back up on their winning ways over the next two weeks as they host Vanderbilt before travelling to face South Carolina (those two games precede their own annual showdown with mighty Georgia). Kentucky has had a tendency to start fast in recent years, going 14-4 ATS in the first half of the season going back to 2021. In those games, it has outscored the opposition by an impressive average margin of 12.5 points. Florida falls into a tough spot here, noting that it has gone a miserable 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games following a home victory. Take Kentucky (10*).

Pac-12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Oregon State minus the points over Utah at 9 pm et on Friday.

This is a massive revenge game for Oregon State after it dropped a lopsided 42-16 decision on the road against Utah last October. Not only that but the Beavers will be looking to bounce back from last week's debacle on the road against Washington State, in which they gave up a whopping 38 points and lost by a field goal. I do think Oregon State is a much better defensive team than it showed in that contest. Meanwhile, Utah was bailed out by its defense in last week's 14-7 snoozefest victory over UCLA. The Utes offense managed just north of 2.0 yards per rush and 117 yards through the air in that game. Clearly, Utah is missing QB Cam Rising and TE Brant Kuithe. Their injury situations remain veiled in a cloud of mystery on a weekly basis. This is a game where I expect the Beavers to go to work with their ground attack and rely on their defense to come up with just enough splash plays to secure the victory by margin. Note that Oregon State is on a perfect 9-0 ATS run at home against Pac-12 opponents and those games haven't been particularly close as the Beavers have outscored the opposition by an average margin of 13.6 points along the way. The last time these two teams met in Corvallis two years ago the Beavers rallied from a 10-point halftime deficit to win by a score of 42-34. I expect this one to be a little more straight-forward. Take Oregon State (10*).

My selection is on Temple plus the points over Tulsa at 7:30 pm et on Thursday.

There's not much separating these two teams as they kick off AAC play on Thursday night in Tulsa. The Temple football program hasn't provided much excitement at all in recent years and 2023 has been no different so far. A number of key Owls sat out last Saturday's blowout loss to Miami. While those players were certainly banged-up, the thinking from head coach Stan Drayton was probably to sit them in what set up as a likely defeat and have them ready for this conference play opener on Thursday. Last year, Tulsa got by Temple by a 27-16 score. Keep in mind, the Golden Hurricane were led by QB Davis Brin, RB Deneric Prince and WR J.C. Santana in that game. None of those players are back this year. Temple needs sharper play from QB E.J. Warner - that's right, Kurt's son - and I think it will get that against a manageable defensive opponent here. The Tulsa offense was built around dual-threat QB Braylon Braxton but he's been hampered by an ankle injury since Week 1. Even if he can play on Thursday, he likely won't be 100% healthy. The Owls will hope to have standout LB Yvandy Rigby back on the field after he missed last week's game. He had 11 tackles and a sack in last year's matchup with Tulsa. Layton Jordan remains in the fold as well - he was outstanding, chipping in with two sacks and an interception against the Golden Hurricane last year. Take Temple (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Middle Tennessee State and Western Kentucky at 7:30 pm et on Thursday.

Western Kentucky enters this game as a considerable favorite but I don't have a lot of confidence in the Hilltoppers 'taking the air out of the football' at any point in this game. WKU ranks 104th in the country in time of possession. The Hilltoppers play fast but are coming off a poor offensive showing in last week's 27-24 loss at Troy. I don't expect them to have any trouble bouncing back in that department here at home, where they've put up a whopping 93 points in two games this season. The one thing Middle Tennessee State does have going for it here is the 'revenge' factor as it has lost four straight meetings in this series. The Blue Raiders have a quarterback worthy of our support in Nicholas Vattiato. He's proven more than capable of moving the football through the air and on the ground. We've yet to see them hit full stride this season but I do think the Blue Raiders have the right personnel around Vattiato to have a breakout performance here. Watch for WR's D.J. Chisolm and Elijah Metcalf along with RB Frank Peasant. All three are potential gamebreakers. Last year's matchup between these two teams totalled 52 points. That was a sloppy contest that featured five turnovers between the two teams. I like the fact that both teams are coming off a loss this time around as I believe that leads to aggressive play-calling here. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between New Mexico State and Hawaii at 11:59 pm et on Saturday.

Both of these teams enter this game riding two-game 'under' streaks. I look for a different story to unfold as they match up on Saturday. New Mexico State certainly isn't known for its offense but it has come around with dual-threat QB Diego Pavia running the show. The Rainbow Warriors defense entered the season with some optimism thanks to plenty of returning talent. A season-ending injury to LB Logan Taylor set them back after getting off to a rough start. The good news for Hawaii is that it does have a pulse on offense this year. You wouldn't know if based on their lukewarm performance on the road against Oregon last Saturday but this group is capable of balling out, especially against a beatable defense like the Aggies. Both teams have shown sky-high ceilings in terms of offensive production in this matchup with New Mexico State putting up 45 points despite possessing the football for just over 27 minutes in last year's meeting. Hawaii is just one year removed from hanging 48 points on the Aggies and has scored 26 points or more in five straight meetings in this series. Take the over (8*).

Game of the Week. My selection is on Memphis plus the points over Missouri at 7:30 pm et on Saturday.

While both of these teams enter this matchup sporting identical 3-0 records, I think Memphis is the real deal while the jury is still out on Missouri. One thing I do know is the Tigers would likely prefer to be playing at their home stadium rather than at the cavernous Dome at America's Center in St. Louis (the former home of the Rams) after a raucous upset win over Kansas State in front of 62,000 Mizzou faithful last Saturday. The Tigers have the built-in advantage of having had a couple extra days of preparation after playing a week ago Thursday against Navy. The fact that Memphis 'only' won that game by four points certainly plays into our favor here as I think the Tigers are being overlooked by most. In watching that victory over Navy, it was clear that Memphis was the better team. It simply got caught flat-footed at times against the Midshipmen's triple-option. Missouri is hoping to have QB Brady Cook under center after he suffered a knee injury in last week's win. Regardless, I do expect the Mizzou Tigers to lean heavily on their ground attack here. In fact, I think both teams have a vested interest in churning out long, clock-eating drives in an effort to shorten proceedings on Saturday. Remember, Mizzou is just one game removed from a narrow 23-19 home win over Middle Tennessee State. That game certainly could have gone either way. Were it not for the Tigers falling on a fumble in their own end zone over halfway through the fourth quarter, they just as easily could have lost that contest by the narrowest of margins. That's the same Middle Tennessee State team that is just 1-2 on the season and got drilled by 49 points by Alabama in Week 1. Memphis likely welcomed the test at the hands of Navy last week after cruising to wins by 42 and 34 points in its first two games this season. Take Memphis (10*).

Pac-12 Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Oregon State and Washington State at 7 pm et on Saturday.

Beavers QB D.J. Uiagalelei has looked like the right fit since transferring from Clemson, where he never lived up to sky-high expectations. With that said, he's been able to ease into proceedings with Oregon State by facing San Jose State, UC Davis and San Diego State in the first three games with the latter two contests coming at home. I do think the Beavers are in for a challenge on Saturday as they travel to Pullman to take on fellow undefeated Washington State. While the Cougars are coming off a 64-point explosion last Saturday, expectations should be tempered noting that came against an FCS opponent in Northern Colorado. This will be their toughest test to date - certainly from a defensive standpoint, with Oregon State having allowed a grand total of 33 points through three games. Back to Uiagalelei for a moment, he is coming off a two-interception game against San Diego State and I do expect the Beavers to scale things back a little here against an opportunistic Washington State defense. The Cougars boast one of the best pass rushes in the country led by ends Ron Stone Jr. and Brennan Jackson. I would anticipate plenty of dinking and dunking from the Beavers on Saturday as they look to get the football out of Uiagalelei's hands quickly and into the hands of their playmakers. The story isn't all that different for the Cougars. QB Cam Ward is one of the more underrated quarterbacks in the country in my opinion. Yet, in a similar matchup two weeks ago at home against Wisconsin he completed just 20-of-32 passes for 212 yards and two touchdowns - an efficient if not explosive performance. Ward was sacked seven times in the Cougars first two games against FBS foes this season so like the Beavers, I think we'll see the Cougars lean heavily on their short passing attack (and ground game) in an attempt to control proceedings at home on Saturday. This was an extremely high-scoring series from 2013 to 2020 but since then we've seen each of the last two matchups between these two teams stay 'under' the total, including last year's 24-10 Oregon State victory in Corvallis. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on Oregon minus the points over Colorado at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

Colorado was riding a wave last week and that surge carried it to a tougher-than-expected overtime win over Colorado State. I don't think the wheels are about to come off for Prime's Buffaloes but I do think the schedule is going to play a factor in the short-term with this trip to Autzen Stadium followed by next week's showdown with USC in Boulder. The Ducks already have an 80+ point performance on their resume this season, albeit against an FCS opponent in Portland State. They easily could have broken 70 points last Saturday were it not for easing off the gas up huge in the second half against Hawaii. Oregon got whatever it wanted in that game and I'm not convinced this Saturday's affair will be all that different. Colorado QB Shedeur Sanders has been able to pick apart opposing defenses with pinpoint accuracy through three games. He hasn't shown the ability to pick up yardage with his legs and has already absorbed a whopping 15 sacks. I would anticipate the Ducks attacking him from all angles on Saturday. While Oregon is known for its offensive prowess, it has it's share of ballers on the defensive side as well. Speaking of that Ducks offense, it is quite simply one of the most difficult attacks to defend in all of college football. QB Bo Nix looks completely in control of the offense in his second year at the helm. Oregon's schedule is going to get a lot tougher with road tests at Washington and Utah in the not so far-off distance. For now, we can expect another party in Eugene on Saturday afternoon. Take Oregon (8*).

My selection is on Louisville minus the points over Boston College at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

I like the way this one sets up as a revenge spot for Louisville after it was stunned 34-33 as nearly a two-touchdown road favorite in this matchup last season. The Cardinals looked rather punchless in last week's 21-14 win at Indiana. Keep in mind, they had scored a whopping 95 points in two games prior to that. I look for them to get back on track here as they catch the Eagles in a letdown spot after giving Florida State all they could handle last week. It's worth noting that while Boston College did end up scoring 29 points in that contest, it was held out of the end zone from 10 minutes remaining in the first quarter until just over one minute was left in the third quarter. There was a point late in the third quarter where Florida State was up by three touchdowns before it let down its guard. Here, I'm confident we'll see the undefeated Cardinals pour it on, noting that they also let off the gas and it nearly cost them last week as they carried a 21-0 lead into halftime before giving up two unanswered touchdowns in the third quarter (that was it for scoring in that one). Take Louisville (8*).

My selection is on Boise State minus the points over San Diego State at 10:30 pm et on Friday.

Neither of these teams has set the world on fire in the early going this season. Boise State got off to a miserable start with a blowout loss at Washington before dropping its home opener against Central Florida. It did have a true 'get right' performance in last week's rout of FCS squad North Dakota. I'm not sure how much bettors know about the Broncos just yet but I still think this team has the potential to have a positive year. San Diego State is off to a 2-2 start. It held up reasonably well defensively but couldn't produce enough offense in last week's loss at Oregon State. Here, I'm not convinced we'll see the Aztecs bounce back offensively against what I feel is a much better Boise State defense than most give it credit for (largely due to that awful performance against Washington in Week 1). I can't help but feel the book is out on Aztecs QB Jaylen Mayden. He stepped in and performed well last season but is off to a shaky start this year, especially as a passer (he did have a breakout rushing performance against FCS opponent Idaho State). The Aztecs don't have the same number of offensive weapons as the Broncos in my opinion. Boise State QB Taylen Green has been almost a mirror image to Mayden. I do like his upside as a passer and he also has a terrific backfield to lean on, even if George Holani can't go again here. Ashton Jeanty fumbled twice last week but did manage to score three touchdowns. He had a big performance against UCF two weeks ago, running for 115 yards while also adding 97 yards receiving. Again, it's the Broncos defense that I expect to fuel this performance on Friday. Boise State boasts a number of playmakers on that side of the football, led by star-in-the-making CB Rodney Robinson, and draws what I feel is a favorable matchup against an Aztecs offense that might be that bad. Take Boise State (8*).

Big Ten Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Wisconsin and Purdue at 7 pm et on Friday.

Wisconsin entered this season with a new look on offense, aiming to ratchet up the pace and sling the football around the field a lot more than we're accustomed to seeing. So far, it's been a mixed bag. The Badgers opened the season with a dominant performance against Buffalo, rolling to a 38-17 victory. From there they travelled to face Washington State and dropped a 31-22 decision. Last week they forced six turnovers in a 35-14 home win over Georgia Southern. Wisconsin is in for a tough test on Friday as it faces a Purdue squad that will be in a foul mood following a 35-20 home loss to Syracuse last Saturday. Don't sleep on the Boilermakers defense. They were hung out to dry by the offense last week as Purdue turned the football over four times in that setback against the Orange. Keep in mind, the Boilers are just one game removed from holding Virginia Tech to 17 points on fewer than 300 total yards in Blacksburg. I do think we see a rather conservative offensive gameplan from Purdue here after last week's turnover-happy performance. The Boilers know they can ill afford to give a good Wisconsin offense any short fields to work with on Friday. For the most part, Purdue hasn't shown much big play potential on offense in the early going this season. I would anticipate plenty of dinking and dunking down the field on Friday, noting that they did control the time of possession in last year's matchup with the Badgers, holding onto the football for 32+ minutes, albeit in a 35-24 defeat. Enough about Purdue, Wisconsin couldn't have been pleased with its defensive performance against Georgia Southern last week, allowing the Eagles to complete 33-of-52 passes for 383 yards. Were it not for all of the GSU turnovers, the end result might have been much different. In the Badgers toughest test so far this season they did hold an ascending Washington State offense to 'only' 31 points in enemy territory. In that contest, there was a stretch where the Badgers didn't allow an offensive touchdown for just shy of 39 minutes from early in the second quarter until the fourth quarter. All told, Wisconsin has given up seven offensive touchdowns in 12 quarters of action this season. Offensively, the Badgers would like to shift to a more pass-happy attack but so far they've topped out at 278 passing yards through three games. The Badgers ground attack is as good as any in the nation but I do think the Boilers can limit the big home run plays here. I'm very high on Purdue's defense in the second and third level in particular. Take the under (10*).

Sun Belt Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Georgia State and Coastal Carolina at 7:30 pm et on Thursday.

This total has been climbing since opening, and for good reason. Coastal Carolina cruised to a 41-24 victory in this matchup last year but I'm anticipating a more competitive affair this time around and that should lend itself to a high-scoring contest. Georgia State actually brought in former Coastal Carolina defensive coordinator Chad Staggs to turn things around on that side of the football. The jury is still out as to whether that will be the case, however. The Panthers have performed well against a pair of bad offenses in Connecticut and Charlotte over the last two games but keep in mind, they gave up 35 points including four touchdowns over a 22-minute stretch against FCS squad Rhode Island in their season-opener. This is a Georgia State defense that has lost a ton of key parts from last year's squad - keeping in mind, last year's defense wasn't very good to begin with. It's a similar story with Coastal Carolina. The Chanticleers lost two of their best defenders from a year ago in Jerrod Clark and Josaiah Stewart and again, that was a defense that wasn't very good. Offensively, both teams are loaded and led by experienced quarterbacks in Darren Grainger and Grayson McCall. Not household names by any means but two of the better leaders in the country. While many teams are already dealing with injuries to key players at the skill positions on offense, that's not the case with the Panthers and Chanticleers as they both enter with clean injury reports. In last year's meeting between these teams, Coastal Carolina held onto the football for more than 40 minutes. Yet that contest still produced 65 total points. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Hawaii and Oregon at 8 pm et on Saturday.

This matchup has all the makings of a shootout, even if it does turn out to be a lopsided affair. Hawaii got its feet under it in a 31-20 win over FCS squad Albany last week - its first victory in three tries this season. There's a lot to like about the Hawaii offense. QB Brayden Schager is purely a pocket-passer - a little different than we're used to seeing from the Rainbow Warriors in recent years. Despite being sacked a ridiculous 14 times through three games, he's still managed to throw for nearly 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns which says a lot about the explosiveness of this aerial attack. With WR Steven McBride emerging as a touchdown machine and Pofele Ashlock a big play waiting to happen, Oregon can't afford to sleepwalk through this game. On the flip side, we know what the Ducks are capable of offensively. They're just one game removed from an 81-point outburst, even if it did come against an FCS opponent in Portland State. Last week, Oregon pulled out a hard-fought overtime win at Texas Tech. Nothing came easy for it in that contest but I expect the Ducks to get loose again offensively here. Note that Hawaii lost the heart-and-soul of its defense, captain Logan Taylor to a season-ending knee injury last week. He's a tackling machine and his absence will be felt right away against Oregon. There was a 32-minute stretch in Oregon's season-opener in which it scored nine, yes nine touchdowns. The Ducks didn't have to keep their foot on the gas for four quarters in that rout but still tacked on two more touchdown's the game's final 12 minutes. That tells you all you need to know about this year's Oregon team. I believe this total will prove too low. Take the over (8*).

Game of the Week. My selection is on Washington minus the points over Michigan State at 5 pm et on Saturday.

This will be a 'revenge game' for Michigan State after it dropped a 39-28 decision in Seattle last September. Instead of earning an ounce of revenge, however, I expect things to go even worse for the Spartans this time around. Washington is loaded on both sides of the football. The Huskies have already padded their stats with lopsided home wins over Boise State and Tulsa. This is arguably their first real test of the campaign although I use the term 'test' loosely. I think Washington will relish the opportunity to go to East Lansing and prove its worth here. Relatively green in the secondary, the Spartans will be hard-pressed to contain the Huskies dynamic WR duo of Jalen McMillan and Rome Odunze. The fact that do-it-all WR Ja'Lynn Polk is only the Huskies third best option is staggering. He's already racked up 182 receiving yards to go along with a score through the air and another on the ground. Michael Penix still isn't a household name in the college streets but it should be. Despite the lopsided nature of the first two games, Washington has kept its foot on the gas for four quarters in both contests and Penix has racked up 859 passing yards and a ridiculous eight touchdowns. And we haven't even talked about the Huskies defense yet. They arguably have NFL-caliber talent at all three levels. All indications are that elite pass-rusher Zion Tupuola-Fetui sat out last Saturday's game as a precaution only and should be back on the field for this one. Even if he isn't able to go, the Huskies have tremendous depth. I'm confident we'll see Washington lock down what I feel is a lukewarm Michigan State offense on saturday and create plenty of 'chaos' plays. Michigan State is a perfect 2-0 SU and ATS but who has it played? Central Michigan and FCS squad Richmond. The Spartans have played well but certainly not at the same level as the Huskies. Keep in mind, in their opener they didn't even reach the end zone until less than a minute was left in the first half against CMU. They do have some nice pieces in place on offense but will take some time to grow. QB Noah Kim is the starter for now but I think it's only a matter of time before highly-touted Katin Houser takes over. The backfield job likely belongs to UConn transfer Nathan Carter with Jalen Berger dealing with an injury and questionable to play. At wide receiver Michigan State has lost a ton of talent from last year's team. Remember, WR Keon Coleman went off for nine catches, 116 yards and two touchdowns in last year's matchup against Washington. He's now tearing it up for Florida State. Take Washington (10*).

Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Virginia Tech and Rutgers at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

I expect both of these teams to employ a 'hide the quarterback' style of offense on Saturday afternoon in Piscataway. Virginia Tech QB Grant Wells was fine in a favorable Week 1 matchup against a rebuilding Old Dominion defense but he suffered considerable regression last Saturday against Purdue and was ultimately lifted from the game due to an ankle injury (he's questionable to play this week). Backup Kyron Drones entered and completed only 2-of-7 passes. Regardless who is under center against Rutgers on Saturday, this is an extremely difficult draw and one where I fully expect the Hokies to lean toward the run in an effort to effectively shorten this game. The good news for the Hokies is that their defense is fine. Last week against Purdue, Virginia Tech allowed two touchdowns in the game's first 18 minutes but then held the Boilermakers out of the end zone until nearly midway through the fourth quarter. This is a manageable matchup against the Scarlet Knights. Rutgers is off to a perfect 2-0 start, scoring 60 points in the process. With that said, QB Gavin Wimsatt has completed just 27-of-50 passes, throwing for 163 and 198 yards in the first two contests. A lot of that has had to do with game script with the Scarlet Knights controlling proceedings. Here, I do think we see a more competitive affair and like the Hokies, the Scarlet Knights have a vested interest in running the football with Kyle Monangai (he's coming off a 165-yard outburst against Temple) and leaning heavily on their tremendous defense. While Rutgers did score 36 points last week, after reaching the end zone with less than four minutes remaining in the first quarter it didn't record another touchdown until over three minutes into the fourth quarter. Temple came unglued late, allowing two more touchdowns in the game's final six minutes. I do expect Virginia Tech to show a lot more poise and composure than the Owls. With that said, Rutgers has played eight quarters of football so far this season, pitching shutouts in six of those. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on Maryland minus the points over Virginia at 7 pm et on Friday.

Don't be fooled by the lopsided final score - Maryland got a scare from Charlotte last Saturday. The Terrapins actually didn't score a touchdown until nearly six minutes into the third quarter in that contest. The good news is, their offense got rolling from there, ultimately producing four touchdowns in a 21-minute stretch from the third to fourth quarter. They even sniffed out an ATS cover (as 24.5-point favorites) before Charlotte produced a touchdown drive in the final two minutes. Nevertheless, there were positives for Maryland to take away. After allowing a touchdown just three minutes into the first quarter it held the 49ers out of the end zone until that final score with under two minutes left in the game. The Terps have allowed just two offensive touchdowns through their first two games. There's plenty to clean up offensively although the offensive line, which was thought to be the biggest concern entering the season, turned in a reasonably clean performance against Charlotte. QB Taulia Tagovailoa remains one of the more underrated players in college football in my opinion although he tossed an uncharacteristic two interceptions last week. I'm willing to give the Terps a mulligan given it was easy to overlook a Charlotte squad they routed last season. Virginia is 0-2 and essentially in a rebuilding year. The Cavaliers did predictably play with a lot of juice last Saturday at home against a sneaky-good James Madison squad. QB Anthony Colandrea wasn't even in the conversation for the starting job earlier in the Spring/Summer but he has taken over the reins. I just wonder whether he's long for the job, undersized and playing behind a leaky offensive line with few offensive weapons around him (he was sacked four times and also threw an interception against JMU). There was a stretch where Virginia scored three touchdowns in six minutes from the second to third quarter on Saturday but it only reached the end zone one more time from there and was completely stymied when the game was hanging in the balance on three fourth quarter drives. Now the Cavaliers take a step up in class against Maryland. I'm simply not convinced Virginia has the personnel in place to hang with the Terps for four quarters. I'm confident we'll see the Terps defense in particular feast on Friday night. Take Maryland (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Army and UTSA at 7 pm et on Friday.

I really like the way this one sets up as a relatively low-scoring affair at the Alomodome on Friday. It's not often that both teams have a vested interest in eating clock and effectively shortening proceedings but I believe that will be the case here. For Army, it will be looking for revenge after a whild 41-38 loss against the Roadrunners in West Point last year. The Black Knights know the straightest path to victory in this game is by churning out long, clock-consuming drives that serve to keep the dangerous UTSA offense off the field. While they're certainly capable of doing that, they're up against a fierce Roadrunners defense that returns plenty of talent and experience and already appears to be in midseason form. I'm anticipating a rather conservative gameplan from Army in the role of considerable road underdog here. On the flip side, UTSA is hoping to have the services of do-it-all QB Frank Harris after he suffered a toe injury in last week's win over rival Texas State. Even if Harris can start this game, it's uncertain whether he'll be at 100% or how the injury will effect his performance. It does seem that something hasn't been quite right with Harris through the first two games this season and compounding matters is the fact that the Roadrunners offensive line has been struggling in pass protection. UTSA has the type of offense that can hold onto the football for long stretches with an effective ground game led by RB Kevorian Barnes. Note, however, that the big plays haven't necessarily been there so far this season. Last week against Texas State, UTSA's longest run was a 23-yard scamper from Barnes while its longest pass completion went for 30 yards - its only completion over 30 yards in the contest. Army does boast a capable defense that is built to prevent big plays thanks to a terrific second level with particular strength in the secondary. Last year's matchup between these two teams was a wild, high-scoring shootout but I expect nothing of the sort in this rematch. Take the under (8*).

AAC Game of the Month. My selection is on Navy plus the points over Memphis at 7:30 pm et on Thursday.

Navy got off to an ugly start to the campaign in Week 0 as it was predictably routed by Notre Dame in Dublin. The Midshipmen got an early season bye after that and rebounded with a clean 24-0 victory over FCS squad Wagner last week. Here, they'll be bent on revenge after dropping blowout decisions against Memphis in each of the last two seasons. I believe Navy is better positioned to keep this matchup competitive even if its chances of staging the outright upset are slim. The Midshipmen have a bit of a different approach under the guidance of new offensive coordinator Grant Chesnut. Gone are the days of this being strictly a triple-option attack. Even in last week's rout of Wagner, the Middies threw the football 18 times, and found moderate success doing so. QB Tai Lavatai is the right guy in place to run the offense. There's a good mix of talent and experience at the other skill positions as well. If there's a weakness on the Memphis defense it's in the middle and that's an area where I believe Navy can take advantage with a rather unpredictable offensive gameplan on Thursday. Back to Memphis in a moment but it's worth noting the Navy defense found its footing last Saturday after getting smashed in the mouth against Notre Dame. This is a better defense than most are probably going to give it credit for, solid from the secondary in with enough reliable pieces in place to limit the Tigers aerial attack and put pressure on QB Seth Henigan. Guys like Jacob Busic and Mbiti Williams are anything but household names but they're capable of wreaking havoc in this particular matchup. Memphis' offense has ripped through a pair of outmatched opponents to open the season. I do think there are still growing pains ahead for this offense with question marks on the offensive line and an unproven receiving corps. The experience of Henigan and the tremendous running back depth can help make up for that but I feel this one is more about the Tigers trying to effectively shorten this game and get to 3-0 unscathed. I also think the relatively low posted total speaks volumes here. Last year Memphis closed as a 4.5-point favorite against Navy and won in a walk by 24 points. Keep in mind, the Midshipmen turned the football over three times in that game and completed only 3-of-11 passes. I'm confident Navy can close the gap in this rematch, noting that Memphis is a long-term 10-24 ATS when coming off a double-digit road victory, outscoring opponents by just 2.7 points on average in that situation. Meanwhile, Navy is a long-term 69-30 ATS as a road underdog, outscored by 7.1 points on average along the way. Take Navy (10*).

My selection is on Auburn minus the points over California at 10:30 pm et on Saturday.

Both of these teams exploded offensively in blowout victories last Saturday. I believe Auburn is better positioned to keep it rolling this week, however. The Tigers rested a number of players in their opener against UMass (some were nursing minor injuries). While they did allow the Minutemen to move the football a little easier than you would have expected at times, they ultimately stiffened up when it mattered and went a stretch from seven minutes remaining in the first quarter until just over six minutes into the fourth quarter without allowing a single score. Auburn is loaded in the secondary where it boasts NFL-caliber talent led by Nehemiah Pritchett, who sat out last week's game but should return here. Offensively, the Tigers ran wild and ripped off a ton of big plays. That's not to say there's not room for improvement, however, as the quarterback duo of Payton Thorne and Robby Ashford completed just 12-of-23 passes. I expect a much sharper performance as the offense works out the kinks under offensive coordinator Philip Montgomery. Cal managed only two sacks against North Texas last week and will be up against an Auburn offensive line that has a number of new parts via the transfer portal but quickly came together, turning in a clean performance against UMass. The Bears defense is led by one of the better linebackers in the country in Jackson Sirmon but I suspect he'll be doing a lot of chasing on Saturday. Cal hopes to have dual-threat QB Sam Jackson (he transferred in from TCU) after he was forced to leave last week's game due to injury. While Ben Finley performed admirably in relief, there's no question this new-look offense is built around Jackson's mobility. RB Jaydn Ott turned in a monster performance against North Texas but it remains to be seen whether he can follow it up with a similar performance here. He had a couple of breakout games last year but didn't show a great deal of consistency. What he has been doing is giving Auburn bulletin board material in media availability this week; "It would be very encouraging when we do get this win. but I feel like our focus is going to be not letting it get to our head and getting too big-headed after we do get the dub." I believe Auburn is a Top-25 team and will boost its resume on Saturday night in Berkeley. Take Auburn (8*).

My selection is on Maryland minus the points over Charlotte at 7:30 pm et on Saturday.

Maryland certainly did itself a favor with its early season schedule this year, opening with three straight home games against Towson, Charlotte and Virginia. It already checked the first box with a 38-6 rout of Towson last week and I'm anticipating a similar result as it hosts Charlotte on Saturday. The Terrapins offense did have some question marks entering the campaign, namely on the offensive line and at wide receiver where it lost some key pieces to the NFL. With that said, it got off to a tremendous start thanks to a terrific performance from underrated QB Taulia Tagovailoa last week and I'm confident we'll see it show continued progression against a Charlotte defense that was absolutely awful last year and didn't do a whole lot to improve things heading into this season. The 49ers weren't really tested in their opener against South Carolina State. Note that they didn't reach the end zone until over five minutes into the second quarter and then went a stretch from four minutes remaining in the second quarter until over midway through the fourth quarter without scoring a touchdown. They'll look to effectively shorten this game with their ground attack and the new clock rules may help them in that regard. With that said, I don't think they can keep this one competitive without QB Jalon Jones being asked to do a whole lot more than he was last week. That likely only gets them into trouble against a Maryland defense that is loaded with potential breakout stars and picked up a game-changer in CB Ja'Quan Sheppard from Cincinnati. Take Maryland (8*).

Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Marshall minus the points over East Carolina at 4 pm et on Saturday.

These two teams experienced different results from a pointspread perspective last week with Marshall barely eking out a 21-17 win over FCS squad Albany, at home no less, while East Carolina stayed inside the number in a 30-3 loss to Michigan at the Big House. It certainly took longer than expected to get going, but the Thundering Herd eventually scored a touchdown just over midway through the third quarter in last week's eventual narrow victory. It wasn't all doom-and-gloom though as Marshall ended up scoring three touchdowns over a 10-minute stretch in that contest. QB Cam Fancher looked pretty good to me, completing 28-of-35 passes for 268 yards while also gaining positive yardage on the ground. It was a tremendous comeback game for RB Rasheen Ali as he ran for 137 yards and two touchdowns on 18 carries. I expect that to be a sign of things to come for this Thundering Herd offense. This is a mouth-watering matchup for Marshall offensively as it catches East Carolina with a relatively inexperienced defense early in the season, before it is able to really mesh. While the Pirates did hold Michigan to 'only' 30 points in last week's loss, that was really a product of the Wolverines taking their foot off the gas after jumping ahead with three touchdowns over a 16-minute stretch in the first half. Michigan put up all 30 of its points in the game's first 36 minutes before calling off the dogs. On the flip side, the East Carolina offense is going to be a work-in-progress as it figures out life after long-time starting QB Holton Ahlers. The Pirates didn't manage a single score against the Wolverines until a field goal with five seconds remaining in the contest. Neither QB they used was able to take hold of the job. I also see it as a negative that QB Mason Garcia led the team in rushing with just 36 yards. Yes, this will be a far less challenging defensive opponent in Marshall but I'm not convinced we'll see the Pirates offense explode. Note that Marshall didn't allow a touchdown until nearly six minutes into the third quarter and no score of any kind in the game's final 18 minutes plus against Albany, which possesses a good offense by FCS standards based on early returns this year. The Thundering Herd lost a lot of talent from last year's elite defense but there are just enough key pieces back in place at all three levels, particularly in the secondary, to come together in short order. Take Marshall (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Iowa and Iowa State at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

While it's certainly not Army-Navy, we have seen a trend of low-scoring contests emerge in this rivalry series between Iowa and Iowa State. The 'under' has cashed in four straight meetings going back to 2018 with only one of those contests topping 35 total points. Last year, Iowa State pulled out a 10-7 victory in enemy territory and the road team has now won eight of the last 10 matchups. I expect a similarly low-scoring contest this year with both offenses in a state of transition early in the campaign. Iowa got the Cade McNamara era off to a red hot start last week, scoring two touchdowns in the game's first eight minutes against Utah State. From there, the Hawkeyes didn't reach the end zone again until nearly five minutes into the fourth quarter. On the flip side, the Iowa defense was a rock as usual, holding Utah State out of the end zone until the game was all but decided (ahead 24-7 at the time) in the final two minutes of the fourth quarter. With QB Hunter Dekkers sidelined due to a gambling probe, it's up to the duo of J.J. Kohl and Rocco Becht to lead teh Cyclones offense. Last week against FCS opponent Northern Iowa it was Becht who got the start and led the team to a 30-point outburst. Led the team might be a bit of a stretch. Iowa State got the ball rolling with a pick-six less than two minutes into the contest and the offense went on to put together three touchdown drives, as it should against an FCS foe. Iowa State is hoping that Jayden Higgins can take over from Xavier Hutchinson as WR1 but he had just one catch for 15 yards against the Panthers. Lost in the 30-point performance was the fact that the Iowa State was terrific, holding UNI out of the end zone until nearly four minutes into the fourth quarter. The Cyclones essentially gave up just one big play in the entire game, that coming on a 36-yard pass completion on that lone Panthers touchdown drive. They racked up five sacks and two interceptions in the victory. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on Kansas minus the points over Illinois at 7:30 pm et on Friday.

Both of these teams enter this Week 2 showdown sporting 1-0 records with Illinois pulling out a last second 30-28 win over Toledo and Kansas crushing Missouri State 48-17. We've seen this line shift slightly toward Illinois in the early part of the week. I can't help but think bettors are a little too high on Bret Bielema's Illini right now and probably not quite high enough on the Jayhawks. There is uncertainty around Kansas' quarterback situation. Jason Bean started last week's game but there's a chance Jalon Daniels will get the start on Friday. It's a nice situation to be in having two quarterbacks comfortable and capable of running the offense as intended. Speaking of that offense, the Jayhawks are loaded with talent and experience at all of the skill positions. I don't believe Kansas' receiving corps or backfield get nearly the attention they deserve - it's not all about the quarterbacks. While it was 'only' against an FCS opponent in Missouri State, there was a stretch where the Jayhawks scored three touchdowns in a six-minute span last Saturday. It took a little while for the offense to get rolling but once it did, it looked unstoppable - just as it did much of last season. Defense is where there remain question marks but I believe Kansas has just enough standout players at all three levels to find success and ultimately take a step forward this season. This is a manageable Week 2 matchup against an Illinois offense that has a number of big shoes to fill, even if the cupboard is far from empty. Illini QB Luke Altmyer showed what he's capable of in last week's come-from-behind win over Toledo, moving the chains with both his arm and his legs. I don't think his ceiling is nearly as high as that of Bean or Daniels for the Jayhawks, however. Of course, Altmyer likely won't be asked to do too much as we all know Bret Bielema-coached teams are run-first. That's an area where Kansas' defense really struggled last year but again, I do think it can take a leap forward this season with the transfer portal helping out, not to mention a number of key contributors gaining a year of experience. The Kansas defense gets stronger at the back-end, notably loaded in the secondary and that's an area of the field where I expect Illinois to run into some trouble, when it tries to stretch the defense. Corners Cobee Bryant and Kwinton Lassiter each picked off a pass in last week's victory. As much as the Illini would like to avoid a track meet, I do think they're going to be forced to play an uncomfortable game of 'catch-up' on Friday night, something they're simply not built for. Take Kansas (8*).

ACC Game of the Month. My selection is on Duke plus the points over Clemson at 8 pm et on Monday.

There's a lot of hype around Dabo Swinney's Clemson Tigers entering the 2023 campaign - of course, what else is new. After a brief lull (by Clemson standards anyway) they're expected back in the National Title picture led by a loaded defense that has NFL-caliber talent at all three levels. I will say that a number of the players they're counting on to lead that defense will need to make a leap forward after perhaps not quite living up to potential thus far. The same goes for the offense. Duke will field arguably its best team in years - on both sides of the football. There's returning talent and experience everywhere and I believe the potential is there for the Blue Devils to build off of last year's strong finish that included a rout of UCF in the Military Bowl. Most are high on Duke QB Riley Leonard and while he's coming off a big 2022 campaign that saw him lead the Blue Devils in passing and rushing, I think there's still a lot of room for him to grow, especially as a passer, in 2023. The common line of thinking here is that Duke simply doesn't have the same level of talent across the board to match up with Clemson and that Dabo Swinney will coach circles around Mike Elko. The Tigers have certainly owned this series, taking five straight meetings going all the way back to 2005, outscoring the Blue Devils by 24 points or more in all five of those contests. It's been five years since their last matchup though and I'm confident Duke has narrowed the gap considerably. Take Duke (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between LSU and Florida State at 7:30 pm et on Sunday.

We saw a relatively low-scoring matchup between these same two teams last Labor Day weekend as Florida State pulled out a 24-23 victory. Keep in mind, there was a 20-minute stretch in the third and fourth quarters where the two teams combined to score a whopping five touchdowns. The explosiveness is there with these two offenses. Of course, the defenses are loaded as well. I simply feel that the talent on defense can effectively work to fuel each team's offense in this particular matchup. We're likely to see plenty of 'chaos' plays that have the potential to flip the field (and lead to quick-score potential from the two offenses). Both teams boast ground attacks led by relative unknowns from a year ago but guys that essentially took over the reins down the stretch last season and should come out blasting here in Week 1. I'm referring to the duo of Josh Williams and Noah Cain for the Tigers and Trey Benson for the Seminoles. The receiving corps' both lose considerable talent but the cupboards are still well-stocked. Malik Nabers of LSU and Johnny Wilson of Florida State are two players that have the potential to go off in this matchup. That's not to mention the fact that both teams have tight ends that could potentially be playing on Sundays in the next couple of years. I expect both offenses to play fast in this one, not wanting to let the opposing defenses settle in and the experienced quarterbacks are certainly in place for that in Jayden Daniels and Jordan Travis. Take the over (8*).

Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Virginia Tech minus the points over Old Dominion at 8 pm et on Saturday.

Opening night in Blacksburg is always special - you could argue any football night in Blacksburg is special - but this year's home opener takes on added importance after the Hokies were upset by Old Dominion in Week 1 last season. The Monarchs stole that game by a 20-17 score and I say 'stole' because their offense didn't even reach the end zone until the final minute of the fourth quarter. While Old Dominion won't roll over in this rematch, it is certainly going to be in tough to open the campaign after being ravaged by the transfer portal. Gone are two of the Monarchs key pieces from last year's upset win - QB Hayden Wolff and WR Ali Jennings (the Richmond native bolted to Virginia Tech). Defensively, Old Dominion retains the services of tackling-machine LB Jason Henderson but little else, particularly up front. Virginia Tech will once again pin its hopes on QB Grant Wells. It's essentially put up or shut up time for the veteran signal-caller as the Hokies have surrounded him with a ton of talent at the wide receiver position. Wells has always had the arm but has a tendency to turn the football over. The good news here is I expect Virginia Tech to jump ahead early and take the air out of the football the rest of the way. ODU was one of the worst time of possession teams in the entire country last year and won't get any better with so many key pieces gone. Take Virginia Tech (10*).

Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Washington State and Colorado State at 7 pm et on Saturday.

I believe this rematch of last year's 38-7 Washington State rout has shootout potential. The Cougars are one of the more underrated teams in the country entering the 2023 campaign in my opinion. And it all starts with their offense, led by the talented trio of QB Cameron Ward, RB Nakia Watson and WR Lincoln Victor. The Rams didn't have any answers for the Cougars offense in last year's matchup as Washington State raced ahead 28-0 before halftime. A big part of that blowout result was the ineptness of the Colorado State offensive line. Almost in direct response to the brutal showing against Wazzu (the Rams gave up seven sacks in that game), Colorado State re-tooled its offensive line and now boasts an entirely different looking group. I don't expect a Jay Norvell-coached team to stay down for long offensively. The Rams do have some nice pieces in place on offense, including QB Clay Millen who took his lumps as a freshman last year but should be better for it in 2023. I like the way this matchup sets up for the Rams ground attack in particular as they've made improvements in that department as well and can take advantage of a smallish Cougars defensive interior. Noting that the Rams turned the football over twice, managed just 14 first downs and 37 rush yards on 31 attempts, it's incredible that they even managed to score a touchdown in last year's meeting. Expect them to at the very least come up with a response here, while the Cougars should be able to once again name their score against a very beatable Rams defense. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Utah State and Iowa at 12 noon et on Saturday.

We know what we're going to get with Iowa. In comes Michigan transfer Cade McNamara at quarterback but he's dealing with a leg injury and questionable to play on Saturday. Even if he does, I still expect to see a dialed-back Hawkeyes offense as they settle in to their preferred style of controlling the football (and the clock) in a matchup they should win going away against Utah State. The Aggies will turn to familiar face Cooper Legas under center. He had an up-and-down 2022 campaign, ultimately throwing just 11 touchdowns compared to 11 interceptions. It seems that the more they let him cut it loose, the more mistakes he makes and in this difficult opening week matchup against what is expected to be an elite Iowa defense once again, I don't anticipate the Aggies putting too much on Legas' shoulders. Instead, we can anticipate Utah State running the football and doing all it can to win the battle of field position with a not-so-secret weapon at punter in super senior Stephen Kotsanlee. Note that the 'under' is a perfect 6-0 in Iowa's September home games over the last two seasons with those contests totalling an average of just 28.2 points. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Miami-Ohio and Miami at 7 pm et on Friday.

This should be an intriguing battle between two talented and experienced defenses in Week 1. The Redhawks had one of the lowest offensive ceilings of all Bowl-eligible teams last season - of course that had a lot to do with losing QB Brett Gabbert early in the campaign. While Gabbert is back healthy to start the 2023 season, he doesn't have the same receiver room to work with. That's not to mention the fact the Redhawks offensive line remains a patchwork unit. Gabbert's decision-making will be the biggest factor here as the opposing Hurricanes defense figure to take advantage of any missteps. The other Miami's offense remains a work-in-progress as well. Last year we saw the Hurricanes explode for 70 points in their season-opener against Bethune Cookman but that wasn't a sign of things to come as the offense sputtered for much of the campaign. They'll start this season with a question mark as well with QB Tyler Van Dyke nursing a thumb injury. While he's likely to play, I don't expect this offense to operate all that fast or efficiently against an underrated Redhawks defense that boasts All-MAC caliber talent at all three levels. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between N.C. State and Connecticut at 7:30 pm et on Thursday.

This total has dropped considerably since opening and it's the right move in my opinion. N.C. State is ushering in a new era offensively with QB Brennan Armstrong coming over from Virginia. Armstrong had a tremendous 2021 campaign before fizzling with the Cavaliers last year. The thinking here is that reuniting Armstrong with offensive coordinator Robert Anae will work wonders. Perhaps that will be the case, but I believe this is a sneaky-tough opening week matchup against a Connecticut defense that made positive strides last season and brings back plenty of talent from that unit. Keep in mind, the Huskies were throttled 41-10 in this matchup last year (in Raleigh). Wolfpack QB Devin Leary went off in that game, completing 32-of-44 passes for 320 yards and four touchdowns. That includes a 75-yard touchdown pass on the first play from scrimmage that put the Huskies being the eight-ball early and ultimately took them away from their gameplan entirely. I don't believe UConn's plan of attack will change all that much this year, even with QB Joe Fagnano entering the fold after a productive career with Maine. Unfortunately for Fagnano, he doesn't have a loaded receiver room to work with. In the opener, he'll be facing a Wolfpack defense that recorded a whopping 19 interceptions last season and returns the outstanding 1-2 punch of Shyheim Battle and Aidan White in the secondary. With that said, the Huskies will want to lean heavily on their outstanding running back duo of Victor Rosa and Devontae Houston. While I do think UConn can make enough headway with its ground attack to keep the chains (and the clock) moving at times in this game, I'm not convinced we're going to see them break many big runs against a Wolfpack defense that despite losing a number of key parts, is still in excellent shape at linebacker and in the secondary. Note that in last year's meeting, the Huskies didn't score until the final play of the first half (field goal) and didn't reach the end zone until there were less than three minutes remaining in the game (and the final result was already decided with N.C. State leading 41-3). Take the under (8*).

Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Hawaii and Vanderbilt at 7:30 pm et on Saturday.

This matchup was no contest last year as Vanderbilt exploded in the third quarter on its way to a 63-10 rout in Hawaii. I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair this year. Given the Rainbow Warriors are guided by head coach and former standout quarterback Timmy Chang, the expectation would be that the Hawaii offense will be high-octane. I simply feel there are too many question marks on that side of the football, including at quarterback and wide receiver to heap on high expectations out of the gate. This is a sneaky-tough matchup against an SEC defense on the rise and I think the Rainbow Warriors main goal will be to possess the football for extended stretches and ultimately keep their defense off the field as much as possible. Speaking of that defense, it was awful last season. I expect this to be a bounce-back year in that department, however, as Hawaii bolstered its secondary by bringing over cornerback Cam Stone from Wyoming and safety Peter Manuma is a budding star after making a splash in his freshman year. The needle is certainly pointing up for Vanderbilt after making positive strides and coming up with a couple of particularly big wins in SEC play last season. While there's talk the experienced but ineffective Ken Seals could still see some action, this is undoubtedly quarterback A.J. Swann's offense. With last year's top running back Ray Davis bolting to Kentucky, the Commodores ground game could be a work-in-progress in the early going. I do think they lean more on Swann's arm (he's not much of a runner) in this particular matchup and then worry about pounding away after building a substantial lead. Again, that's where the Rainbow Warriors improved secondary needs to come in. Defense is where Vandy needs to have the biggest improvement and I believe it will. Vandy brought in Aeneas DiCosmo from Stanford and Prince Kollie from Notre Dame to bolster the pass rush that simply didn't create enough splash plays last season. Losing last year's top tackle Anfernee Orji certainly isn't ideal but I do think there are enough good pieces in place to make this Commodores defense anything but a swinging gate this season. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between TCU and Georgia at 7:30 pm et on Monday.

Both CFP semi-final matchups ended up being high-scoring affairs and that's helping this total hold strong approaching the mid-60's. I believe it will prove too high. Lost in TCU's 51-point explosion against Michigan was the fact that it completed just 14-of-29 passes for 225 yards - the second straight games in which the Horned Frogs completed 18 or fewer passes. Their ground game has of course been dominant, led by RB Kendre Miller. It is worth noting that Miller suffered a minor MCL injury in that semi-final against Michigan and now goes against a Georgia defense that has held opponents to just 3.0 yards per rush this season. The Bulldogs check in having allowed more than 94 rushing yards just once in their last six games - that coming in the scare against Ohio State in the CFP semi-final (we won with the Buckeyes in that game). Note that TCU earned itself three extra offensive possessions against Michigan, turning the Wolverines over three times in that contest. They're unlikely to enjoy the same good fortune here, noting that Georgia has turned it over just once in each of its last four games. While the Bulldogs offense has enjoyed tremendous success over their last two games going back to the SEC Championship Game, here we'll note that the 'under' is 9-1 the last 10 times Georgia has played away from home off three straight 'over' results, as is the case here, leading to an average total of only 45.8 points. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on USC minus the points over Tulane at 1 pm et on Monday.

We successfully faded USC in the Pac-12 Championship Game as it got its doors blown off in the second half against Utah. In fact, the Trojans only two losses this season have come by way of the Utes. Here, we'll back the Trojans and fade Tulane as it enters this New Year's Bowl game off three consecutive wins, both SU and ATS. I simply feel that Lincoln Riley's USC squad poses similar problems that the Green Wave faced against Central Florida and its high-powered offense back in mid-November - a game Tulane lost by a touchdown at home (it did get its revenge in the AAC Championship Game). Noting that USC is 34-19 ATS in its last 53 lined games off a straight-up defeat, we'll confidently back it here. Take USC (8*).

My selection is on Ohio State plus the points over Georgia at 8 pm et on Saturday.

I believe this game has 'instant classic' potential as one-loss Ohio State challenges undefeated Georgia in the Peach Bowl on Saturday night. Ohio State checks in off consecutive ATS losses to end the regular season, including a stunning blowout defeat at the hands of rival Michigan, at home no less, in its finale. It's a much different story for Georgia as it rolled to a 50-30 win over LSU in the SEC Championship Game the last time it took the field earlier this month. Sure, the defending National Champion Bulldogs are undefeated, but they went largely untested over the course of the regular season and SEC Championship Game. This is only the second time all season they've been less than a double-digit favorite. The other occasion came against Tennessee in early November, when the Vols began a late season swoon. Ohio State only managed to cover the spread in one of its last four games from November on but it's worth noting that it forced only one turnover over that stretch. Georgia, for all of its strengths, does check in having turned the football over at least once in six straight and nine of its last 10 games overall. Here, we'll note that the Buckeyes are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games when playing away from home off a home loss and 12-3 ATS in their last 15 contests following a home defeat against a conference opponent. Take Ohio State (8*).

My selection is on Iowa minus the points over Kentucky at 12 noon et on Saturday.

While the Hawkeyes quarterback situation is a bit of a mess heading into this Bowl rematch against Kentucky, I can't be convinced that anyone in Iowa's QB room represents much of a downgrade from incumbent Spencer Petras. Iowa has completed more than 18 passes in a game only twice this season, to mixed results. While the Hawkeyes will be missing Petras amongst a laundry list of players sitting out, the argument could still be made that they're in better shape than the Wildcats in that regard. Here, we'll fade Kentucky off consecutive ATS wins to close out the regular season as it hung tough against mighty Georgia before laying waste to Louisville. Iowa had been rolling, winning four games in a row both SU and ATS before being stunned by Nebraska as a double-digit favorite on Black Friday. Give me the better defense and perhaps the offense that's better-suited to effectively shorten what shapes up as an ugly one with the total set in the low-30's. Take Iowa (8*).

My selection is on Ohio minus the points over Wyoming at 4:30 pm et on Friday.

Wyoming was already going to be one of the weakest teams to take the field during Bowl season and now with a number of key injuries, transfers and opt-outs the Cowboys are in even rougher shape heading into this matchup with Ohio. While the Bobcats will be without QB Kurtis Rourke, I still like them to rebound following a disappointing loss in the MAC Championship Game against Toledo. It's easy to forget that Ohio had been rolling prior to that setback and I'm confident we'll see it bounce back and end its campaign on a winning note in Arizona on Friday. Take Ohio (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between South Carolina and Notre Dame at 3:30 pm et on Friday.

This total has dropped considerably since the opener and rightfully so with both teams announcing a number of key offensive contributors will be opting-out, or transferring. The Gamecocks wrapped up the regular season with consecutive wild, high-scoring affairs - both going 'over' the total. Meanwhile, the Irish saw each of their last six contests go 'over' the total. With both teams missing the focal point of their offenses at the tight end position, I don't doubt we'll see a more run-centric attack from both squads, effectively shortening this game and keeping proceedings 'under' the still-lofty total. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on Notre Dame minus the points over South Carolina at 3:30 pm et on Friday.

I'll lay the points with Notre Dame as I'm not buying what South Carolina is selling off consecutive outright underdog wins over Tennessee and Clemson to close out the regular season. While much of the talk surrounds who won't be playing in this contest, the Irish still have a talent-laden squad looking to put a positive cap on an up and down season that most recently saw them fall by double-digits against USC. In a game where I expect both teams to employ a run-centric offensive gameplan, I'll gladly fade a Gamecocks squad that didn't travel well defensively, particularly against the run as they were torched for 5.4 yards per rush away from home. Look for Notre Dame to end Marcus Freeman's first season at the helm on a high note here. Take Notre Dame (8*).

My selection is on UCLA minus the points over Pittsburgh at 2 pm et on Friday.

The Bruins fell out of favor with many bettors thanks to an 0-3 ATS slide to close out the regular season. After starting the campaign 8-1, UCLA dropped two of its last three games SU to drop from what likely would have been a more prestigious Bowl game as well. I don't expect the Bruins to be short on motivation, however. Both teams are going to be missing a number of key contributors due to transfers and opt-outs, although the argument could be made that the Bruins are in slightly better shape in that regard, as indicated by the pointspread we're dealing with here. We'll lay the points. Take UCLA (8*).