Sports Picks & Predictions

Eastern Conference Second Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Indiana minus the points over New York at 7 pm et on Friday.

The Pacers return home facing an 2-0 series deficit and while they'll be hard-pressed to win four of the next five games and take this series, I do expect them to at least make things interesting back at home as they check in as considerable favorites in Game 3 on Friday. Note that Indiana is 29-11 ATS when coming off an ATS loss this season and 8-3 ATS when following consecutive SU defeats. Meanwhile, the Knicks are 0-3 ATS after scoring 130 points or more in their previous game this season not to mention 22-25 ATS when coming off an ATS victory and 10-11 ATS when checking in off three straight wins. New York has quite simply shot the lights out in the first two games in this series. It's not as if they've been playing with a large margin for error having gotten off 82 and 86 field goal attempts compared to the Pacers' 88 and 93 through the first two games in this series. This is a matchup where the pointspread hasn't factored in much with the SU winner going 17-1 ATS in the last 18 meetings. With that in mind, we'll lay the points with the Pacers. Take Indiana (10*).

Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Dallas plus the points over Oklahoma City at 9:30 pm et on Thursday.

The Thunder have now won four straight home meetings against the Mavericks with the closest margin of victory being seven points after drilling Dallas by a 117-95 score in Game 1 of this series. Note that Oklahoma City has now won three straight games against Dallas going back to the regular season. Keep in mind, the Thunder haven't defeated in the Mavs in four straight matchups since back in 2016-17. Dallas checks in 44-39 ATS in its last 83 games when seeking revenge for a loss in which its opponent scored 110 points or more including a 23-14 ATS mark in that situation this season. The Mavs are also 9-2 ATS when seeking revenge for consecutive double-digit losses against an opponent over the last three seasons including a 3-1 ATS record this season. The Thunder have now reeled off four straight ATS wins - matching their longest such winning streak since February. The last time they posted four consecutive ATS victories they went on to win their next game by only two points (as 8.5-point favorites) in Game 1 against the Pelicans last round. Take Dallas (10*).

Second Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Denver minus the points over Minnesota at 10 pm et on Monday.

The Timberwolves have reeled off five straight wins both SU and ATS but I look for those streaks to end here. Note that Minnesota is a long-term 18-33 ATS in its last 51 games following five consecutive ATS victories including a 3-7 ATS mark in that spot over the last three seasons and a 1-2 ATS record this season. The Nuggets have thrived when seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent going 22-13 ATS in that situation over the last three seasons and 6-2 ATS this season. Additionally, Denver is a long-term 25-16 ATS when coming off an upset loss at home against a divisional opponent, as is the case here, including a 6-0 ATS mark in that spot over the last three seasons and 3-0 ATS this season. I certainly don't expect the defending champion Nuggets to go down 2-0 in this series and it's worth noting that the T'Wolves have failed to cover the spread in 14 of their last 15 straight-up losses. Take Denver (10*).

Game of the Week. My selection is on Cleveland minus the points over Orlando at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Magic rallied for a win (and cover) in Game 6 of this series on Friday. That's par for the course as the home team has won each and every game in this series so far. I look for that trend to continue in Game 7 on Sunday afternoon in Cleveland. Note that the Cavaliers are 58-51 ATS when seeking revenge for a loss in which their opponent scored 100 points or more over the last three seasons including an 18-14 ATS mark in that situation this season. They're 54-50 ATS when coming off a loss over the last three seasons including a 20-14 ATS record this season. The Magic have had a double-digit advantage in terms of free throw attempts in each of the last two games and that's ultimately proved to be the difference from a pointspread perspective. As is often the case, I expect the script to flip as the scene shifts to Cleveland for Game 7 on Sunday. Take Cleveland (10*).

Interleague Game of the Week. My selection is on Houston -1.5 runs over Cleveland at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday.

The Astros righted the ship with a pair of wins over the Rockies in Mexico and now return home to host the Guardians on Tuesday night. Houston has been one of baseball's biggest disappointments so far this season but it's still very early. I like their chances of teeing off on Guardians starter Carlos Carrasco on Tuesday. Note that Carrasco owns a lofty 5.04 FIP and 1.63 WHIP in five starts this season. Current Astros hitters have gone a combined 35-for-127 against him including seven home runs. Of note, Yordan Alvarez is 2-for-2 with two home runs off of Carrasco. With all of that experience there's plenty of knowledge to impart up and down the lineup. It's a much different story for Astros starter Hunter Brown against the Guardians. Only Ramon Laureano has seen him before and he's gone 0-for-5. Brown isn't having a banner sophomore campaign by any means but I'll take a flyer on him here noting that he has pitched better in his last two outings including a home start against the Braves in which he gave up just two earned runs over six innings. The Guardians bullpen has been superior to that of the Astros this season but over the last week or so, it's been more of a wash. Take Houston -1.5 runs (10*).

Eastern Conference First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over New York at 7:30 pm et on Thursday.

The Knicks held serve at home, winning each of the first two games in this series to head to Philadelphia ahead 2-0. I still think the potential is there for this to be a long series and look for the 76ers to bounce back in Game 3. With that being said, it's worth noting that the Knicks have gone 1-17 ATS in their 18 road losses this season. New York is a long-term 39-54 ATS when coming off a home win by three points or less including a 3-6 ATS mark in that situation over the last three seasons and 1-2 ATS this season. Meanwhile, Philadelphia is 62-49 ATS in its last 111 contests as a home favorite including a 21-12 ATS record this season. The 76ers are also 31-23 ATS in their last 54 games following a road loss including a 13-6 ATS mark this season. Take Philadelphia (10*).

Western Conference First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Dallas minus the points over Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Tuesday.

One record-setting poor shooting quarter effectively sunk the Mavericks in the opener of this series on Sunday. Dallas didn't get off to the start it had hoped for in that contest but still had hope after trailing by 12 points following the first quarter. From there it was a 22-8 second frame in favor of the Clippers and that was essentially that for Game 1. With that being said, the Mavs did show some fight, ultimately making the final score respectable thanks to a hot shooting second half. I do think we'll see them carry over some of the positive momentum from that strong second half in Game 2 on Tuesday. As indicated by the line, the Mavs are still the superior team in this matchup and check in 29-18 ATS in their last 47 games as a road favorite of six points or less including a 15-4 ATS mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the Clips are just 12-16 ATS in their last 28 contests as a home underdog including a 2-4 ATS record this season. Take Dallas (10*).

Pacific Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Calgary -1.5 goals over San Jose at 9:05 pm et on Thursday.

The Flames fell short in Vancouver two nights ago, snapping a two-game winning streak in the process. I look for them to bounce back on Thursday as they return home to wrap up what has been a disappointing season but in a smash spot against the lowly Sharks. San Jose looks like a team that has already packed it in for the season, coming off consecutive blowout losses by scores of 6-2 and 9-2 against the Wild and Oilers, respectively. Still a number of years away from even contending for a playoff spot, the Sharks are looking to the future. It's a different story for the Flames as they expect to compete for a playoff spot (and a division title) each and every year. There's plenty of roster moves to be made moving forward but I do think this team has continued to play hard down the stretch and finds itself in a prime bounce-back situation on Thursday. The Flames have plenty of young talent in the pipeline, led by goaltender Dustin Wolf, who figures to get the start between the pipes on Thursday. He backstopped the Flames to a 3-2 win in San Jose on April 9th, stopping 20 of 22 shots he faced. Take Calgary -1.5 goals (10*).

A.L. East Game of the Week. My selection is on New York -1.5 runs over Toronto at 3:05 pm et on Wednesday.

Kevin Gausman has been awful in his last two starts. In fact, he's been pretty bad going all the way back to last August save for a few starts. When things have gone south for the veteran right-hander it's been in spectacular fashion. Note that in Gausman's last seven team losses, the opposition has plated a whopping 51 runs. After dropping the first two games of this series, I look for the Yankees to rebound on Wednesday afternoon. Marcus Stroman will get the nod for New York. He's coming off a rocky outing of his own but still owns a respectable 3.42 FIP and 1.06 WHIP on the campaign. He'll of course be up for this matchup against his former team. The Jays bullpen has held up well in this series so far but I think it's only a matter of time before it gets blown up. We'll bet that today is the day. Take New York -1.5 runs (10*).

Play-in Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on New Orleans over Los Angeles at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday.

While the Pelicans were there in body they certainly weren't in spirit in Sunday's regular season ending 124-108 loss to these same Lakers. I expect a different story to unfold in Tuesday's 7 vs. 8 play-in tournament matchup. Neither team's back is against the wall, so to speak, in this contest as the one that loses will live to fight another day, against the winner of the 9 vs. 10 matchup between the Warriors and Kings. The Pelicans have enjoyed a terrific season and prior to Sunday's loss to the Lakers, had reeled off four straight wins - all coming on the road. I certainly anticipate them bouncing back here, noting they've gone 20-11 ATS in their last 31 games when seeking revenge for a double-digit home loss against an opponent, as is the case here, including a 9-3 ATS mark in that situation this season. The Lakers are 21-39 ATS in their last 60 contests following consecutive wins including a 9-15 ATS mark in that spot this season. Take New Orleans (10*).

National League Game of the Month. My selection is on San Francisco -1.5 runs over Miami at 6:40 pm et on Monday.

Marlins starter A.J. Puk has proven he's not ready for a rotation spot, issuing 14 walks while giving up 12 hits in barely 10 innings of work this season. The Giants should be in a foul mood after failing to secure a series win in St. Petersburg yesterday. Kyle Harrison looks like he has the stuff to succeed at the big league level and I'm confident he'll put San Francisco in good position to win by margin on Monday in Miami. Take San Francisco -1.5 runs (10*).

Central Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Nashville -1.5 goals over Chicago at 8:35 pm et on Friday.

I expect the Predators to be all business as they carry out this one-game trip to Chicago off a disappointing home loss against the Jets three nights ago. Note that Nashville is 12-5 (+7.9 net games) following a home loss this season while Chicago checks in a woeful 17-60 (-32.6 net games) in its last 77 contests against Central Division foes. After a brief surge, the wheels have come off for the Blackhawks over the last couple of games, falling by 4-0 and 5-2 scores against the Wild and Blues. They were down 4-0 before the ice was even dry two nights ago in St. Louis. Since the start of 2022 the Preds are 7-1 in this series with all but two of those victories coming by at least two goals. Take Nashville -1.5 goals (10*).

A.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on Texas -1.5 runs over Oakland at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday.

The A's have inexplicably reeled off three straight wins but I look for that streak to end on Wednesday. Ross Stripling will get the start for Oakland. He caught lightning in a bottle in his most recent outing, getting involved in a pitching duel with Nick Pivetta of the Red Sox in an eventual 1-0 loss. Those type of impressive outings are likely to be few and far between for the journeyman starter this season, however. After his line drive percentage rocketed last season it has held through two starts this year as well. I look for the Rangers bats to feast. Cody Bradford doesn't get much attention near the back of the Rangers starting rotation but he has the potential to be a quality arm for the defending champs again this year. Bradford won't overwhelm hitters with his pitch velocity but he makes the most of his pitch arsenal and has recorded a 2.91 FIP and 0.47 WHIP through two outings this season. The A's have been winning but have a small margin for error averaging only 3.0 runs per game on the season. Take Texas -1.5 runs (10*).

Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Phoenix at 6:10 pm et on Sunday.

New Orleans is reeling right now having lost four straight games both SU and ATS. I look for the Pelicans to give the Suns all they can handle on Sunday, however. Note that New Orleans is trending in the right direction offensively having knocked down 42 or more field goals in two of its last three games. It has also held five straight and 10 of its last 12 opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals. The Suns while coming off three straight victories both SU and ATS have been held to 44 or fewer made field goals in six straight games. It's not as if they're blowing the doors off the opposition. Note that the Pelicans are 19-11 ATS in their last 30 games when seeking revenge for a double-digit home loss against an opponent, as is the case here, including an 8-3 ATS record in that situation this season. The Suns are 18-34 ATS in their last 52 contests following a double-digit home win including a 4-8 ATS mark in that spot this season. Take New Orleans (10*).

N.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on San Francisco -1.5 runs over San Diego at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

Padres starter Matt Waldron's stay at the big league level could prove to be short-lived but we want to fade him while we can as he makes his second start of the campaign in San Francisco on Sunday. Waldron actually looked pretty good in the Spring, earning a role in the starting rotation. His first regular season outing didn't go so well as he allowed nine hits and four earned runs in just four innings of work. The Giants will get their second look at the knuckle-baller after facing him in late September last year. Waldron recorded a 5.46 FIP in 41 1/3 big league innings last season. San Francisco will hand the ball to Logan Webb as he looks to shake off a rough outing in Los Angeles earlier this week. I'm not overly concerned by that shaky performance as Webb was terrific in his regular season debut (against these same Padres). The Giants ace owns a career 2.56 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 10 starts against San Diego. Take San Francisco -1.5 runs (10*).

Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on New York minus the points over Sacramento at 7:40 pm et on Thursday.

I like the bounce-back spot for the Knicks after suffering a 109-99 setback in Miami two nights ago. New York couldn't get anything going offensively in that loss. Off three straight losses, the Knicks will catch a Kings squad that is probably feeling pretty good about itself following victories over the Jazz and Clippers. That latter win came by 14 points against Los Angeles. Note that Sacramento is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight games following a win by double-digits over a division opponent including a 1-4 ATS mark in that situation this season. The Kings are also 2-6 ATS in their last eight contests after allowing 95 points or less in their previous game including a 1-3 ATS record in that spot this season. Meanwhile, the Knicks are 28-23 ATS in their last 51 games as a home favorite of six points or less including a 7-5 ATS mark in that situation this season. They're also 16-10 ATS in their last 26 contests following a double-digit road loss including a 6-2 ATS record this season. Take New York (10*).

Elite Eight Game of the Year. My selection is on Clemson plus the points over Alabama at 8:45 pm et on Saturday.

Clemson will try to accomplish what another ACC squad was unable to do two nights ago and that's topple Alabama on its way to a Final Four appearance on Saturday night. The ACC has exceeded expectations in this tournament, even if the Tar Heels did fall short against the Crimson Tide on Thursday. Clemson enters riding a red hot 21-11 ATS tear in an underdog role including a 9-1 ATS mark in that situation this season. Note that Alabama falls into a rather poor situation here as it has gone 17-28 ATS in its last 45 contests after scoring 85 points or more in its previous game, as is the case here, including an 11-11 ATS record in that situation this season. Clemson has climbed all the way inside KenPom's top-20 rankings nationally, closing the gap on 14th-ranked Alabama as this tournament has gone on. Clearly the Tigers were underrated entering this tournament but they come off their best offensive showing (29-of-59 shooting against Arizona) and have held four straight opponents to 25 or fewer made field goals (Alabama has held just one of its last six foes to fewer than 29). Take Clemson (10*).

Sweet 16 Game of the Year. My selection is on Connecticut minus the points over San Diego State at 7:35 pm et on Thursday.

This is of course a rematch of last year's championship game that Connecticut won in a rout, 76-59. I don't expect this game to be any closer - in fact, I think the Huskies hold an even greater advantage in this year's matchup. San Diego State checks in off wins over UAB and Yale with the latter victory coming in blowout fashion. Keep in mind, the Aztecs haven't covered the spread in consecutive games since February 13th and 16th. Connecticut on the other hand is on an ATS tear, grabbing the cash in three straight and 11 of its last 13 games. The Huskies rank inside the country's top-10 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency according to KenPom. Note that San Diego State is just 8-10 ATS in its last 18 games as an underdog including a 2-5 ATS mark in that situation this season. The Aztecs are also just 26-29 ATS in their last 55 contests following consecutive wins including a 4-10 ATS record in that spot this season. Meanwhile, UConn is 61-39 ATS in its last 100 games as a favorite including 24-11 ATS this season. The Huskies are quite simply built for postseason basketball, riding a long-term 36-23 ATS run in NCAA Tournament action including an 8-1 ATS mark in their last nine contests in the Big Dance. Take Connecticut (10*).

Second Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Grand Canyon plus the points over Alabama at 7:10 pm et on Sunday.

I think most are still sleeping on Grand Canyon, even after its upset win over St. Mary's in the opening round of this tournament. The Antelopes aren't some upstart - they actually check in 50th in the country according to KenPom's overall rankings. They do everything reasonably well and play at a fast enough pace to not get overwhelmed by Alabama in this particular matchup. The Crimson Tide prevailed by double-digits against Charleston in the opening round. They continue to thrive offensively but can be had defensively, ranking just 117th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season according to KenPom. Note that Grand Canyon is 12-7 ATS in its last 19 games as an underdog including a 3-0 ATS mark in that situation this season. Alabama did cover the spread in its tournament opener but remains just 8-12 ATS in its last 20 NCAA Tournament contests including a 2-3 ATS record over the last three seasons. Take Grand Canyon (10*).

First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on UAB plus the points over San Diego State at 1:45 pm et on Friday.

I don't think UAB is getting enough respect after beating three quality opponents in three days on its way to an AAC Tournament title last week. The Blazers have quietly put together a 20-12 ATS record in lined games this season. While few were paying attention back in November, they opened the campaign with an extremely tough three-game slate, at home against Bradley followed by neutral site contests against Clemson and Maryland. UAB went 2-1 ATS in those three contests with the lone defeat coming by two points against Bradley. Going back to January 14th the Blazers have rattled off an incredible 15 ATS victories in 19 games. San Diego State certainly took the Mountain West Conference Tournament seriously, reaching the final against New Mexico (it lost that game 68-61). I see this as a tough opening round draw for the Aztecs as the Blazers figure to push the pace and make them uncomfortable. UAB is efficient enough to back it up, ranking inside the country's top-60 in adjusted offensive efficiency this season (according to KenPom). A big reason why San Diego State has only managed to go 13-19 ATS this season is that it is good enough to be favored in most contests but doesn't generate enough scoring opportunities to cover those spreads. The Aztecs rank 266th in the country in adjusted tempo. UAB has connected on 30 or more field goals in five of its last eight games while San Diego State has reached that number just once since the end of January and six times all season. The Blazers have been a solid positive momentum play in recent years going 28-26 ATS in their last 54 games following an ATS win including a 13-6 ATS mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, San Diego State is just 22-27 ATS in its last 49 contests following an ATS loss including a 7-11 ATS record in that spot this season. Take UAB (10*).

NIT Game of the Week. My selection is on Cal-Irvine plus the points over Utah at 11 pm et on Tuesday.

Utah probably feels like it deserved a better fate but the wins and losses simply didn't add up for the Utes to reach the NCAA Tournament. Here they are in the NIT and while Cal-Irvine won't catch a lot of attention by name recognition only, the Anteaters have the pedigree and the personnel to give Utah all it can handle on Tuesday night. Cal-Irvine enters the NIT on an offensive tear. The Anteaters have knocked down 30, 30, 31, 31, 28 and 32 field goals over their last six contests. That's to go along with a defense that ranks 40th in the country (in terms of KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency metric) - one spot above tonight's opponent, Utah. The Utes have quite simply been an unreliable bet since New Year's Eve, going 8-13 ATS over their last 21 games. While the Anteaters failed to deliver the cash in their most recent game against NCAA Tournament-bound Long Beach State, they've never lost more than two games in a row ATS this season and that happened only three times previously. In fact, the Anteaters are 23-16 ATS in their last 39 games following an ATS loss including a 9-3 ATS mark in that situation this season. Utah, meanwhile, has gone 57-69 ATS in its last 126 tournament games (in-season or postseason) including a 4-8 ATS record over the last three seasons. I simply feel the Utes are laying too many points on Tuesday. Take Cal-Irvine (10*).

Northwest Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Utah plus the points over Minnesota at 9:10 pm et on Monday.

The Timberwolves easily brushed aside the Jazz in the first half of this two-game set in Utah on Saturday. I expect Utah to provide a lot more resistance in Monday's rematch. Note that the T'Wolves have now won back-to-back road games. They're just 29-43 ATS in their last 72 contests following consecutive road wins including a 6-9 ATS record in that situation over the last three seasons. Minnesota is also just 3-9 ATS this season after holding consecutive opponents to 105 points or less. Meanwhile, Utah is 25-11 ATS in its last 36 games as a home underdog including a 13-7 ATS mark this season. Additionally, the Jazz are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games played with triple-revenge, as is the case here. Take Utah (10*).

My selection is on Duquesne plus the points over VCU at 1 pm et on Sunday.

We'll grab all the points we can get with Duquesne on Sunday as I think the Dukes might just be the better team in this matchup. It's not as if VCU is having all that memorable of a campaign. The Rams have gone 22-12 and their current three-game winning streak is their longest since a four-gamer from February 3rd to 16th. Duquesne checks in 23-11 on the season and riding a seven-game winning streak. The Dukes have turned incredibly stingy at the defensive end of the floor, rising all the way to 34th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season (according to KenPom). They've won consecutive matchups with VCU including a double-digit road win just 12 days ago. The Rams have the pedigree but the Dukes have the better team in my opinion. Take Duquesne (8*).

Conference Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on North Carolina minus the points over N.C. State at 8:30 pm et on Saturday.

N.C. State has gone on an incredible run to keep its NCAA Tournament hopes alive this week in D.C. but I expect its run to end here. There's obviously no love lost between these in-state rivals. The last meeting between the Wolfpack and Tar Heels was decided by only nine points but North Carolina was the better team by perhaps an even wider margin as it absolutely dominated the second half. Here, the Tar Heels come off a scare against Pittsburgh yesterday as they once again needed a big second half to pull away for a seven-point win. I expect a sharper performance from North Carolina here and it catches N.C. State off a late rally that saw it force overtime before prevailing against Virginia last night. Now the Wolfpack will play their fifth game in as many days and while they're hungry to earn that NCAA Tourney berth, I expect talent to win out on this occasion. North Carolina hasn't lost a game since February 13th at Syracuse and while it will be playing its third game in three days, the first of those contests was a glorified scrimmage in a 92-67 rout of Florida State on Thursday. Take North Carolina (10*).

Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Oklahoma City minus the points over Dallas at 10 pm et on Thursday.

Tough spot for the Mavericks here as they hit the road in the second of back-to-backs off a double-digit home win over the Warriors last night and on the heels of four straight victories. While Golden State wasn't able to take advantage last night, Dallas does continue to give up too many scoring opportunities on a nightly basis. The Mavs have allowed five of their last eight opponents to get off at least 92 field goal attempts. Oklahoma City figures to take advantage having knocked down 42 or more field goals in four straight and 15 of its last 17 games. The runway is cleared for takeoff for the Thunder here as they're rested having not played a back-to-back since March 3rd and 4th and with this being the finale of a four-game homestand. Note that Dallas is just 33-34 ATS in its last 67 games as a road underdog including a 10-14 ATS mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City is 32-18 ATS in its last 50 contests as a home favorite including an 18-9 ATS record this season. Take Oklahoma City (10*).

Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Sacramento plus the points over Milwaukee at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday.

The Bucks picked up a much-needed win over the Clippers on Sunday, snapping their brief two-game losing streak to open their current four-game road trip. I look for them to stumble on Tuesday, however, as they head to Sacramento to face the revenge-minded Kings. Sacramento has undoubtedly had this rematch circled on its calendar after dropping a heart-breaking 143-142 decision in Milwaukee on January 14th. The Kings enter this contest off a home loss against the Rockets which marked their second straight ATS defeat. Note that Sacramento is still 17-12 on its home floor this season. The Kings continue to do an excellent job of limiting their opponents scoring opportunities, holding an incredible 16 of their last 19 foes to fewer than 90 field goal attempts and three of their last four to 84 or fewer. Despite the poor showing against Houston last time out, Sacramento has still knocked down 52 or more field goals in two of its last three contests. Milwaukee on the other hand has allowed all three opponents on its current trip to get off at least 90 field goal attempts. In fact, the Clippers hoisted up 104 field goal attempts against the Bucks on Sunday. Note that Milwaukee is a long-term 73-80 ATS when coming off a win including an 18-22 ATS mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the Kings are 19-9 ATS in their last 28 contests following an upset loss at home including a 7-3 ATS record in that spot this season. Better still, they're 34-12 ATS in their last 46 games following consecutive ATS losses including 9-1 ATS this season. Take Sacramento (10*).

America East Game of the Year. My selection is on Vermont minus the points over New Hampshire at 5 pm et on Tuesday.

Vermont escaped with a four-point win the last time these two teams squared off in New Hampshire just last week, failing to sniff out a cover as a nine-point favorite. I don't expect the Catamounts to face nearly as much resistance in this quick rematch in America East Tournament semi-final action on Tuesday. Note that New Hampshire is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games following a double-digit victory in-conference, as is the case here, including an 0-1 ATS mark in that situation this season. The Wildcats are also just 6-8 ATS in their last 14 games when seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent. Meanwhile, Vermont is 24-19 ATS in its last 43 contests following consecutive ATS losses including a 12-7 ATS mark in that spot over the last three seasons. Better still, the Catamounts are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games when coming off consecutive straight-up wins but ATS defeats, which is the situation here. Take Vermont (10*).

West Coast Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on St. Mary's minus the points over Santa Clara at 9 pm et on Monday.

St. Mary's nearly let Santa Clara off the hook the last time these two teams met in late January. In that game, the Gaels built a seemingly insurmountable 22-point halftime lead before escaping with an 82-77 home victory. Keep in mind, the first matchup this season was no contest as St. Mary's rolled to a 73-49 road win. The Broncos will have the Gaels full attention for this WCC Tournament semi-final matchup on Monday. The last time we saw St. Mary's it fell by a 70-57 score in its regular season finale against Gonzaga. It has had over a week to chew on that double-digit defeat and as a result I expect to see a bit of a sling-shot effect from the Gaels on Monday. While St. Mary's does play at an extremely slow pace (it ranks 358th out of 362 Division I teams in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom), it is also very efficient, ranking inside the nation's top-50 in adjusted offensive efficiency (also according to KenPom). For its part, Santa Clara ranks 114th in the same category. The Broncos play fast but I think it works against them in this semi-final showdown. Take St. Mary's (10*).

Big Sky Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Weber State minus the points over Montana State at 7:30 pm et on Monday.

The door is wide open for the likes of Weber State and Montana after Sacramento State and Idaho State pulled off stunning upsets in Big Sky Tournament action over the weekend. I like Weber State in particular as it draws a quick revenge matchup against Montana State on Monday. Just one week ago, Montana State delivered a 76-64 win over Weber State as it quite simply shot the lights out on its home floor (29 made field goals including 13 from three-point range on just 55 field goal attempts). Keep in mind, earlier in the season the Wildcats rolled to an 86-64 win over the Bobcats. That victory over Weber State last week marked just a third win over its last nine contests for Montana State. Meanwhile, the Wildcats suffered just their second defeat in their last 10 games. KenPom has Weber State ranked a respectable 144th in the country while Montana State checks in 241st (out of 362 Division I teams). The Bobcats play at a reasonably fast pace but aren't generally all that efficient offensively - their last game notwithstanding - and I think that will play into this one getting away from them in short order. Weber State appeared in nine postseason tournaments in 11 years from 06-07 to 16-17 including three NCAA Tournaments but has gone through a dry spell since. With two of the Wildcats biggest roadblocks going down, the opportunity presents itself to go dancing this year and I look for them to take a step in that direction on Monday. Take Weber State (10*).

Sun Belt Conference Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on Appalachian State minus the points over Arkansas State at 6 pm et on Sunday.

Arkansas State just missed my card on Sunday and it was a mistake leaving the Red Wolves off as they rolled to a 27-point rout of Louisiana-Lafayette to advance to the semi-final round of the Sun Belt Conference Tournament. I expect the shoe to be on the other foot on Sunday, however, as the Red Wolves are likely to be overmatched by the Mountaineers. Appalachian State needed overtime to get past Georgia Southern yesterday. The Mountaineers got a little ahead of themselves in that game thinking the Eagles were going to roll over down by double-digits at halftime. That wasn't the case and Appalachian State needed a late push in overtime to secure the victory. After that scare, I expect the Mountaineers to turn in a complete effort on Sunday. They're a much better defensive team than they showed in the second half of yesterday's game, checking in ranked 29th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom. Arkansas State does boast the 67th ranked offense in the country (according to KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency rankings) but I question whether it used up everything it had in the tank yesterday, knocking down 34-of-68 field goal attempts in the victory over Louisiana-Lafayette. The Ragin' Cajuns didn't pose any sort of offensive threat in that contest, notably making good on just 3-of-15 three-point attempts. Appalachian State elected not to involve the three-point game yesterday, attempting just 10 shots from beyond the arc. Keep in mind, the Mountaineers made good on 8-of-17 three-point attempts in an 80-57 rout of the Red Wolves just last week. Take Appalachian State (10*).

Northwest Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Utah plus the points over Denver at 9:10 pm et on Saturday.

The Nuggets are coming off a key bounce-back win over the Celtics at home two nights ago. That came on the heels of an overtime loss at home against the Suns two nights earlier. Utah is reeling having lost nine of its last 11 games but has played competitive basketball lately, recording three straight ATS wins entering Saturday's contest. On a positive note, the Jazz have held seven straight opponents to 46 or fewer made field goals. That may not seem like much of an accomplishment but given how they had been playing previously it's a step in the right direction. They're missing some key contributors offensively but have managed to knock down 42, 49 and 44 field goals over their last three games and should get Keyonte George back from a one-game absence on Saturday. I don't think Denver is well-positioned to cover too many big spreads like this given it has connected on 45 or fewer field goals in three of its last four and seven of its last 11 contests. Note that the Jazz are 14-7 ATS in their last 21 games following a SU loss but ATS victory, as is the case here, including a 5-2 ATS mark in that situation this season. Utah is also 19-15 ATS in its last 34 contests following three straight ATS wins, including a 7-3 ATS record in that spot this season. Meanwhile, Denver is a middling 15-16 ATS in its last 31 games as a double-digit favorite including 5-6 ATS this season. The Nuggets are just 11-14 ATS in their last 25 games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent in which they were a road favorite, which is the situation here, going 4-6 ATS in that spot this season. Finally, Denver is a long-term 73-82 ATS following a win including 18-22 ATS this season. Take Utah (10*).

Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Boston minus the points over Phoenix at 8:40 pm et on Saturday.

The Celtics are off to an 0-2 start on their current road trip with consecutive close losses coming at the hands of the Cavaliers and Nuggets. I look for them to 'get right' on Saturday as they continue their trip in Phoenix. The Suns are just 2-6 ATS over their last eight games. Their offense remains a bit of a mess with Devin Booker still sounding like he's a game or two away from returning. Note that Phoenix has been held to 44 or fewer made field goals in 11 straight games. On the flip side, the Suns continue to give up way too many scoring opportunities. They've allowed 90 or more field goal attempts in an incredible 16 straight games. The Celtics figure to take advantage. Despite being held to just 39 and 41 made field goals in the first two games of their current road trip, they've averaged 43 made field goals on 90 field goal attempts per game on the road this season. Note that Boston is a long-term 54-28 ATS in its last 82 games following consecutive losses by six points or less, as is the case here, including a 4-2 ATS mark in that situation over the last three seasons. Meanwhile, Phoenix is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games as a home underdog of six points or less including an 0-4 ATS record in that spot this season. Take Boston (10*).

ACC Game of the Month. My selection is on Georgia Tech plus the points over Virginia at 8 pm et on Saturday.

This is quite simply a case of two teams heading in opposite directions as Georgia Tech comes in having won four of its last five games SU and five of its last six ATS while Virginia has dropped the cash in five of its last six contests, winning outright only twice over that stretch. The Yellow Jackets faced the Cavaliers at their best back in mid-January as Virginia was in the midst of an eight-game winning streak. Meanwhile, that loss against Virginia marked the first of three straight defeats and part of a 2-12 stretch overall. Note that Georgia Tech is 52-47 ATS in its last 99 games as a road underdog of between 6.5 and 12 points including a 3-2 ATS mark in that situation this season. The Yellow Jackets are also a long-term 97-80 ATS when seeking revenge for a loss in which their opponent scored 75 points or more, as is the case here, including a 5-1 ATS record in that spot this season. Virginia is a woeful 8-25 ATS in its last 33 contests following a loss by 20 points or more in-conference. Take Georgia Tech (10*).

Ohio Valley Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Arkansas-Little Rock minus the points over Western Illinois at 8 pm et on Friday.

Western Illinois enters this game on the heels of four straight wins but I think it's going to be in tough against Little Rock, which has reeled off nine straight victories and checks in 9-1 ATS over its last 10 contests. The problem Western Illinois is facing here is that it has allowed five straight opponents to get off at least 63 field goal attempts. Little Rock couldn't be any hotter offensively having connected on 28 or more field goals in five straight games and should welcome the up-tempo nature of this contest, ranking inside the top-100 in the country in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. Defensively, Little Rock has been locked in lately, holding four of its last five opponents to 22 or fewer made field goals. In fact, the Trojans have limited an incredible 13 of their last 14 opponents to 25 or fewer successful field goal attempts. The Bulldogs are just 6-11 ATS in their last 17 games following a win by three points or less over a conference opponent, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the Trojans are 15-11 ATS in their last 26 contests following consecutive ATS wins as a favorite. Take Arkansas-Little Rock (10*).

Eastern Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on New York plus the points over Orlando at 7:40 pm et on Friday.

Everyone is down on the Knicks right now. Perhaps rightfully so as they've lost eight of their last 11 games and could be without Jalen Brunson again on Friday as he nurses a knee injury. The Magic have to feel pretty good about themselves as they ride a five-game winning streak and are already off to a perfect 2-0 start on their current road trip. They're playing with a rather small margin for error, however, noting that they've gotten off 81 or fewer field goal attempts in five straight games and 88 or fewer in 16 of their last 17 contests. The Knicks can apply some defensive pressure here, noting they've held 14 of their last 16 opponents to 87 or fewer field goal attempts. Offensively, New York is struggling, however it did get off a whopping 99 field goal attempts against Atlanta two nights ago. The shots simply weren't falling. Note that the Knicks have lost four straight meetings in this series and that's notable as the Magic haven't defeated them in five straight matchups since recording a six-game winning streak from 2009-2011. Orlando is just 6-10 ATS in its last 16 road games with the line set between +3 and -3, which is likely to be the case here, including a 2-5 ATS mark in that situation this season. The Magic are 5-10 ATS in their last 15 contests following a win over a division opponent. Following consecutive wins over divisional foes they've gone 0-2 ATS over the last three campaigns. Additionally, they're 13-26 ATS in their last 39 games following three consecutive double-digit victories including an 0-1 ATS record in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the Knicks are 21-17 ATS in their last 38 home games with the line set between +3 and -3 including a 5-2 ATS mark this season. They're also 27-20 ATS in their last 47 contests when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent including a 5-3 ATS record this season. Take New York (10*).

MAAC Game of the Month. My selection is on Niagara minus the points over Siena at 7 pm et on Thursday.

This is undoubtedly a game Niagara has had circled on its calendar since dropping a wild 93-88 decision at home against Siena back on January 15th. That was about as strange of a game as they come as the Saints connected on just four three-pointers but shot 62.5% from the field and knocked down a whopping 31 free throws. I wouldn't count on a repeat performance here, or anything close. Note that Siena has been held to 24 or fewer made field goals in an incredible 12 straight games. On the flip side, the Saints have allowed four straight opponents to connect on at least 27 field goals. Niagara has been struggling, dropping three straight games all in a favorite role. Note that the Purple Eagles are 21-11 ATS in their last 32 games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent. They're also 35-24 ATS in their last 59 contests following three straight ATS losses including a perfect 5-0 ATS mark in that situation over the last three seasons. Meanwhile, Siena is just 9-10 ATS in its last 19 games following consecutive ATS victories including an 0-2 ATS record in that spot this season. The Saints are also 5-8 ATS in their last 13 games following a road defeat in which they scored fewer than 60 points. Take Niagara (10*).

Pacific Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Sacramento plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Wednesday.

The Kings are coming off a 113-109 loss at home against the surging Bulls on Monday. I look for them to bounce back against the Lakers on Wednesday. Los Angeles delivered an impressive 116-104 victory over the Thunder on Monday. Keep in mind, the Lakers caught the Thunder on the second night of a back-to-back. What I like about the Kings is their ability to limit their opponents' scoring opportunities. Sacramento has held five straight opponents to 87 or fewer field goal attempts and 14 of its last 16 foes to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. On the season it has held opponents to an average of 87 field goal attempts per contest on the road. The Lakers have quite simply been shooting the lights out lately but I don't believe that is sustainable. On the flip side, Los Angeles continues to give up a boatload of scoring chances, yielding 92 or more field goal attempts in eight of their last nine and 15 of their last 17 contests. Note that the Kings are 36-18 ATS in their last 54 games following a home loss and 25-16 ATS in their last 41 contests following an upset loss. Meanwhile, the Lakers are 24-29 ATS in their last 53 games when seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent, as is the case here, and 25-28 ATS in their last 53 contests as a home favorite of six points or less. Take Sacramento (10*).

Big 12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Baylor minus the points over Texas at 9 pm et on Monday.

Baylor continues to fly under the radar as a true national title contender perhaps overshadowed in a year where an expanded Big 12 boasts so many elite teams. The Bears enter this game off a dominant victory over Kansas on Saturday. They check in ranked 14th in the country according to KenPom with a unique mix of efficient but slow offense, ranking top-five in adjusted offensive efficiency but 301st in adjusted tempo. I expect that mix to frustrate Texas on Monday as the Bears look to avenge an earlier 75-73 loss against the Longhorns. Texas is in a log-jam in the middle of the Big 12 standings but it comes in satisfied following consecutive blowout wins over Texas Tech and Oklahoma State. Note that the Longhorns are just 10-16 ATS in their last 26 games as an underdog. They're 6-10 ATS in their last 16 contests following a double-digit win in-conference including a 1-3 ATS mark in that situation this season. Additionally, Texas is 13-29 ATS in its last 42 contests following consecutive victories including a 1-8 ATS record in that spot this season. Meanwhile, Baylor checks in 27-20 ATS in its last 47 games when seeking revenge for a loss by three points or less against an opponent including a perfect 2-0 ATS mark in that situation this season. The Bears are a solid positive momentum play having gone 20-16 ATS in their last 36 contests after scoring 80 points or more and 28-23 ATS in their last 51 games after an ATS victory (15-12 ATS in their last 27 after consecutive ATS wins, as is the case here). Take Baylor (10*).

Mountain West Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Colorado State minus the points over Wyoming at 4 pm et on Saturday.

To illustrate just how tough the Mountain West Conference is this season look no further than the fact that a team as good as Colorado State (ranked 33rd in the country according to KenPom) sits in seventh place with an even 8-8 record. The Rams enter this contest on the heels of three straight losses but I look for them to 'get right' against the Cowboys. This is a revenge game for Colorado State after it dropped a 79-76 decision on the road back on January 27th. That game saw a wide disparity at the free throw line in favor of Wyoming as it knocked down twice as many free throws as Colorado State (20-10). The script should flip in Saturday's rematch, noting that the Rams have permitted an average of just 15 trips to the charity stripe at home this season. Colorado State ranks 34th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency (according to KenPom) and checks in having held eight straight opponents to 24 or fewer made field goals, limiting half of those foes to 22 or less. Offensively, the Rams haven't been setting the world on fire and part of that is by design as they sit 271st in adjusted tempo (also according to KenPom). With that said, I see this as a breakout spot against a bad Wyoming defense that has allowed 26 or more made field goals in five of its last six and 14 of its last 16 games overall. The Cowboys rank 248th in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency. The Cowboys are just 18-27 ATS in their last 45 games following an ATS loss including a 5-10 ATS mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the Rams are 12-6 ATS in their last 18 contests when seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent including a 5-2 ATS record in that spot this season. Take Colorado State (10*).

Non-Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Washington at 10:40 pm et on Friday.

This sets up as a smash spot for the reeling Clippers who enter this game losers of two straight and five of their last seven games overall. Los Angeles has faced a brutal stretch of opponents lately, going up against the Timberwolves, Warriors, Thunder, Grizzlies, Kings and Lakers over its last six contests. Only the date with Memphis offered any sort of reprieve and the Clippers did take advantage and win that game (albeit failing to cover the spread). Here, the Clips catch the Wizards off an 'empty the tank' overtime loss against the Lakers last night. Yes, last night's numbers were helped along by overtime but the Wizards have now allowed four of their last six opponents to make good on at least 50 field goals. They've yielded at least 47 made field goals in seven of their last nine contests. For the Clips, I believe their problems are fixable, at least in the short-term. They suffered a major collapse in the fourth quarter against the rival Lakers two nights ago, blowing a 21-point lead. They have now held each of their last four opponents to 91 or fewer field goal attempts which is a stride in the right direction after the way they had been playing previously. The Lakers quite simply went off offensively in the fourth quarter two nights ago. I don't expect the Wizards to replicate that performance here, noting that they average just 43 made field goals per contest on the road this season while the Clippers have held the opposition to an average of 41 successful field goal attempts per game at home. The Wiz are just 46-53 ATS in their last 109 games following an ATS victory including a 12-16 ATS mark in that situation this season. The Clips are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 contests following consecutive upset losses at home, as is the case here. That situation has come up just once in the last three seasons and Los Angeles did cover the spread in its next game on that occasion as well. Take Los Angeles (10*).

Sun Belt Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Louisiana-Lafayette minus the points over Southern Miss at 8:30 pm et on Friday.

Louisiana-Lafayette has inexplicably gone in the tank dropping four straight games both SU and ATS entering Friday's regular season finale against Southern Miss. Included in that four-game slide was a stunning 82-71 loss at Southern Miss last Saturday. I look for the Ragin' Cajuns to break out of their funk and exact some swift revenge on their home floor on Friday. The Golden Eagles have done well to hang onto sixth place in the Sun Belt Conference standings - tied with the Ragin' Cajuns, in fact. They've certainly had some good fortune along the way. Note that KenPom has them ranked 224th nationally but 47th in terms of its 'luck rating' metric. I simply feel we'll see Southern Miss' defense get overwhelmed in this particular spot. Note that the Eagles have allowed 25 or more made field goals in nine of their last 11 games with six of their last nine foes hoisting up more than 60 field goal attempts. That should be music to the ears of the Ragin' Cajuns shooters, noting that Louisiana-Lafayette is desperate for a breakout and plays fast having gotten off 64 or more field goal attempts in four of its last five contests. Defensively, the Ragin' Cajuns have admittedly been inconsistent lately but have limited four of their last six opponents to 24 or fewer made field goals. They rank a respectable 140th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom despite playing fast, checking in 118th in the nation in adjusted tempo. Note that Southern Miss is 0-9 ATS as a road underdog of between 6.5 and 9.0 points over the last three seasons including an 0-2 ATS mark in that situation this season. Louisiana-Lafayette is 18-13 ATS in its last 31 contests as a home favorite including a 6-4 ATS record this season. Take Louisiana-Lafayette (10*).

Atlantic Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over Boston at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday.

The 76ers got crushed by the Bucks in front of a national audience on Sunday afternoon as their struggles without Joel Embiid continued. I do think there's a path for Philadelphia to stay competitive in Boston on Tuesday, however. The 76ers do have the ability to effectively shorten proceedings having held three straight opponents to 80 or fewer field goal attempts and 10 of their last 14 foes to 87 or less. The Celtics may actually be willing partners here noting that they've limited three of their last four opponents to 82 or fewer field goal attempts. Despite Philadelphia's recent struggles it has held six of its last seven opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals. There's certainly plenty of room for improvement for the Sixers offense after they connected on just 36-of-97 field goal attempts in a failed comeback against Milwaukee on Sunday. Note that Philadelphia has hoisted up 90 or more field goal attempts in eight of its last 11 contests so it is at least finding a way to generate plenty of scoring opportunities. Note that Philadelphia has dropped the last two matchups in this series but has gone 22-12 ATS in its last 34 games playing with double-revenge. The Sixers are also 21-17 ATS in their last 38 contests after being held to 100 points or less in their previous game including a 3-2 ATS mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, Boston is just 3-7 ATS in its last 10 contests following three straight ATS wins as a favorite, as is the case here, including a 1-2 ATS record in that spot this season. The Celtics are also just 26-28 ATS in their last 54 games following eight straight victories including a 2-4 ATS mark in that situation over the last three seasons. Take Philadelphia (10*).

ACC Game of the Week. My selection is on Miami plus the points over North Carolina at 7 pm et on Monday.

Miami has now lost six straight games to fall all the way to 12th in the ACC standings. With games left against Boston College and Florida State, the Hurricanes can still move up two or three spots in advance of the ACC Tournament but they need to turn things around now. This is undoubtedly a game the Canes have had circled on their schedule as they let the Tar Heels off the hook in a narrow three-point loss against them back on February 10th. Miami connected on just six three-point attempts in that game and got to the free throw line only 13 times (making good on 10 of those attempts) in the loss. Since then it's been all downhill but I do think we'll see Miami rise to the occasion here. North Carolina checks in off a 54-44 victory over Virginia on Saturday. The Cavaliers quite simply couldn't take advantage of their scoring opportunities in that game, making good on only 16-of-58 field goal attempts. Keep in mind, the Tar Heels had allowed at least 27 made field goals in five straight games prior to that contest. While North Carolina has yielded 30 or more made field goals twice in its last six games, Miami has done so just once in its last 12 contests (that happened on Saturday against Georgia Tech). Currently pacing the ACC by a game, the Tar Heels undoubtedly have their sights set on their regular season finale - a showdown with Duke on March 9th that might just decide who goes into the ACC Tournament as the number one seed. Note that the underdog has won four straight games ATS in this series. Despite their struggles this season, the Canes remain a long-term 123-79 ATS as a road underdog including a 12-9 ATS mark in that situation over the last three seasons. They're also 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games when seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent. Meanwhile, North Carolina is just 5-13 ATS in its last 18 games as a home favorite of 12.5 points or more. The Tar Heels are also just 5-8 ATS in their last 13 contests following consecutive ATS wins as a favorite including a 3-4 ATS mark in that situation this season. Take Miami (10*).

Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over Milwaukee at 1:10 pm et on Sunday.

The Bucks are coming off a much-needed upset win in Minnesota on Friday as they snapped their two-game losing streak. Milwaukee is still just 4-7 SU and ATS over its last 11 games. It figures to be hard-pressed to cover many spreads as a favorite when it has been held to 42 or fewer made field goals in a staggering eight straight games. Over that stretch, the Bucks were held to 87 or fewer field goal attempts on five different occasions. On the flip side, they've allowed six of their last eight foes to connect on at least 43 field goals. They were fortunate that the Timberwolves didn't take advantage of their opportunities on Friday as they did hoist up 98 field goal attempts. Philadelphia brought its two-game losing streak to a halt with a 104-97 win over the Cavaliers on Friday. The 76ers have now delivered the cash in three of their last five games ATS. They haven't exactly been setting the world on fire offensively either, but they're not the ones laying points in this spot. Note that Philadelphia has connected on 40 or more field goals in nine of its last 10 contests. Defensively, the 76ers have shown improvement lately, limiting three straight and six of their last eight opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals including just 38 and 34 over their last two contests. The Bucks check in just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following an upset win. Meanwhile, the 76ers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 contests when seeking revenge for a loss by three points or less against an opponent, as is the case here. Take Philadelphia (10*).

Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Minnesota minus the points over Brooklyn at 9:10 pm et on Saturday.

The Timberwolves dropped a 112-107 home loss against the Bucks last night. I look for them to bounce back on Saturday as they host the reeling Nets. Brooklyn has had a tough enough time just getting shots off let alone knocking them down. The Nets check in having made good on fewer than 40 field goals in four of their last five games. They've mustered up just 79, 81 and 80 field goal attempts over their last three contests. Despite the loss last night, the T'Wolves continued to play well defensively. They've limited five straight and nine of their last 10 foes to 41 or fewer made field goals. In fact, only one of their last 19 opponents has gotten off 90 or more field goal attempts. Offensively, Minnesota has been far more consistent than Brooklyn, knocking down 46 or more field goals in three of its last five games and 40 or more in 18 of its last 23 contests. Brooklyn hasn't proven to be a good bounce-back team this season, going just 11-16 ATS in 27 games following an ATS loss including a 6-9 ATS mark following consecutive ATS defeats. The Nets are also just 23-29 ATS in their last 52 contests when seeking revenge for home loss against an opponent, as is the case here, including a 5-9 ATS mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, Minnesota is 17-12 ATS in its last 29 games following a loss by six points or less including a 5-2 ATS mark in that situation this season. Take Minnesota (10*).

Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Memphis plus the points over Los Angeles at 8:10 pm et on Friday.

The Grizzlies have to feel pretty good about their chances as they catch the Clippers in the second of back-to-backs on Friday night in Memphis. Los Angeles is struggling defensively right now having allowed six straight and eight of its last nine opponents to make good on at least 45 field goals. The Clippers have had no success slowing the opposition, allowing 90 or more field goal attempts in five of their last seven contests. The Grizzlies, despite being undermanned, did show some signs of life offensively prior to the All-Star break, knocking down more than 40 field goals in four of their last six games. On the flip side they also held each of their last three opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals. The Clippers have covered the spread in consecutive matchups in this series but haven't won three games in a row ATS over the Grizzlies since back in 2018. Note that Los Angeles is a long-term 40-54 ATS in its last 94 games as a road favorite of between 6.5 and 12 points including a 6-8 ATS mark in that situation over the last three seasons. The Clips are also just 2-6 ATS in their last eight contests following a road loss by 20 points or more, as is the case here. Memphis on the other hand is 23-15 ATS in its last 38 games as a home underdog and 29-14 ATS in its last 43 contests when playing with double-revenge. Take Memphis (10*).

Mountain West Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on UNLV minus the points over Air Force at 11 pm et on Wednesday.

UNLV is flashing in this revenge spot against Air Force. The Runnin' Rebels turned in their worst performance of the entire season in a 90-58 home loss against the Falcons back in January. Note that UNLV is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent as a favorite and a perfect 4-0 ATS when seeking revenge for a home loss by 20 points or more against an opponent going all the way back to 1997 (only once over that stretch have they sought revenge for a home loss by 30 points or more). The Rebels enter this game locked-in defensively having held five straight opponents to 23 or fewer made field goals. Meanwhile, Air Force has connected on 21 or fewer field goals in three of its last four games. In fact, the Falcons have had a tough enough time getting shots off let alone knocking them down, attempting 52 or fewer field goals in four of their last five games. While Air Force has done a tremendous job of slowing the pace and effectively shortening proceedings it has still allowed six straight and nine of its last 10 opponents to connect on at least 24 field goals despite six straight foes only managing to get off 51 or fewer field goal attempts. The problem here is that UNLV is comfortable playing at that slow pace as it ranks 299th in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom. The Rebels were held to just 22 made field goals in a narrow three-point loss to Nevada last time out but they have proven consistent offensively, making good on 24 or more field goals in nine of their last 11 contests, despite playing at that slow tempo. Note that UNLV is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games following a home loss in-conference and 6-1 ATS in its last seven contests following an upset loss at home, as is the case here. Meanwhile, Air Force is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games after losing six straight contests ATS and 6-11 ATS in its last 17 games off a road loss against a conference foe. Take UNLV (10*).

Big East Game of the Week. My selection is on St. John's minus the points over Georgetown at 7 pm et on Wednesday.

I think we'll see St. John's go off on Wednesday as it looks to snap its three-game losing streak with a road date against Georgetown. The Red Storm continue to afford themselves plenty of scoring opportunities as they've hoisted up 69, 71, 69 and 68 field goal attempts over their last four games. Sunday's loss against Seton Hall snapped a streak of three straight games in which they connected on at least 28 field goals. Note that St. John's will be facing a Georgetown squad that ranks 307th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency (according to KenPom) on Wednesday. The Hoyas have allowed eight straight opponents to knock down at least 25 field goals with five of those foes connecting on 32 or more. On the flip side, the Red Storm have held four of their last five opponents to 54 or fewer field goal attempts. Note that Georgetown has made good on 27 or fewer field goals in seven straight games and that's despite getting off more than 60 field goal attempts in five of those contests. St. John's checks in 5-2 ATS in its last seven games as a road favorite and 4-1 ATS in its last five contests following three straight losses against conference foes. Meanwhile, Georgetown is 8-21 ATS in its last 29 games as a home underdog and 6-9 ATS in its last 15 contests following consecutive double-digit losses against conference opponents. Take St. John's (10*).

MAC Game of the Month. My selection is on Bowling Green plus the points over Central Michigan at 7 pm et on Tuesday.

This is a true 'get right' game for Bowling Green after it was blasted by Louisiana and Eastern Michigan in its last two contests. Here, the Falcons will have revenge on their minds after suffering a 77-76 home loss against Central Michigan earlier this month. The Chippewas have benefited from some good fortune this season as they rank second in the country in luck rating according to KenPom's metrics. It shows as the Chips have held six of their last eight opponents to 24 made field goals or less despite six of those foes getting off at least 60 field goal attempts. In fact, Central Michigan has allowed its last five opponents to hoist up 66, 73, 70, 60 and 69 field goal attempts. It also checks in 324th in the country (out of 362 Division I teams) in adjusted offensive rating. Bowling Green prefers to play at a fast pace - it simply hasn't been able to cash in on its opportunities over the last couple of games. I'm confident it can flip the script in this matchup. There's a fairly well-defined offensive ceiling in play when it comes to CMU as it has connected on 26 or fewer field goals in eight of its last nine games. The lone outlier over that stretch actually came against Bowling Green as the Chips made good on 31-of-61 field goal attempts in that game. I don't think there's any question the Falcons got caught looking past CMU on that occasion as they were fresh off an upset road win over Ball State. Note that Bowling Green is 3-1 ATS when coming off a loss in-conference this season and a perfect 2-0 ATS when that loss came on the road. Central Michigan is a long-term 67-84 ATS in its last 151 games after consecutive ATS wins including an 8-11 ATS mark in that situation over the last three seasons. Take Bowling Green (10*).

ACC Game of the Month. My selection is on Virginia Tech minus the points over Virginia at 7 pm et on Monday.

This is undoubtedly a game the Hokies have had circled on their calendar since dropping a 65-57 loss against the Cavaliers back on January 17th. Virginia Tech turned the basketball over 15 times in that game, allowing Virginia to play its game and effectively shorten proceedings. Note that the home team is a perfect 6-0 SU and ATS in the last six meetings in this series. The straight-up winner has covered the spread in 16 straight matchups between these in-state rivals. The Cavaliers have expended plenty of energy during their 9-1 run to climb to third place in the ACC. Meanwhile, the Hokies have a lot of work to do as they sit 6-8 in conference play with six games left on the schedule. The good news is the schedule is fairly forgiving down the stretch but the Hokies need to turn it around here following Saturday's blowout loss at North Carolina. Note that Virginia is just 5-10 ATS in its last 15 games as a road underdog of six points or less and 23-30 ATS in its last 53 contests following a win by three points or less against a conference opponent. Virginia Tech checks in 25-17 ATS in its last 42 games as a home favorite and 5-1 ATS in its last six contests when seeking revenge for a loss in which it scored 60 points or less. Take Virginia Tech (10*).

Pacific Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Sacramento plus the points over Phoenix at 10 pm et on Tuesday.

The Kings suffered a heart-breaking loss the last time they played in Phoenix back on January 16th as they let the Suns off the hook in a 119-117 defeat (they still covered the spread). I say they let them off the hook because they led that game by 17 points at halftime and 12 points entering the fourth quarter. I like the spot for Sacramento here as it looks to get on track following a 127-113 loss in Oklahoma City on Sunday - its third defeat in its last four games. Sacramento continues to play well offensively. It has made good on at least 42 field goals in an incredible 15 of its last 17 games, connecting on 45, 51 and 44 field goals over its last three contests. The Suns have become rather forgiving defensively, allowing at least 90 field goal attempts in six straight and 12 of their last 14 games overall. Of course, Phoenix has been red hot offensively but I do think the Kings are capable of at least limiting the Suns scoring opportunities, noting that Sacramento has held three straight and six of its last eight opponents to 85 or fewer field goal attempts (it allows an average of 42-of-87 shooting on the road this season). Note that the Kings are 33-23 ATS in their last 56 games following a double-digit loss, including 8-5 ATS in that situation this season. They're also a long-term 52-43 ATS in their last 95 contests when seeking revenge for a loss in which their opponent scored 110 points or more. Meanwhile, Phoenix is just 17-22 ATS in its last 39 games played on two days' rest (note that this is the first time it has had two days between games since January 16th-19th). The Suns are also just 15-17 ATS in their last 32 home games with the total set at 230 points or higher. Take Sacramento (10*).

Big 12 Game of the Week. My selection is on Kansas plus the points over Texas Tech at 9 pm et on Monday.

I think the knee-jerk reaction is to fade Kansas here after it was stunned in overtime on the road against in-state rival Kansas State in front of a national audience one week ago tonight. We'll go the other way and back the Jayhawks as they look to snap a three-game road losing streak in Big 12 play. Note that you would have to go back five meetings to find the last time the Red Raiders defeated the Jayhawks and that marks their only victory in the last nine meetings in this series going back to the start of 2020. While Texas Tech did snap a three-game losing streak with a 66-59 win over Central Florida last time out it still failed to cover the spread for a fourth straight game. The Red Raiders continue to play too loose defensively for my liking, allowing five of their last seven opponents to get off more than 60 field goal attempts. Give a team as talented as the Jayhawks enough scoring opportunities and they're going to break through, noting Kansas has connected on more than 30 field goals in four of its last eight contests. The Jayhawks have certainly shown signs of life defensively in recent games, holding eight of their last 10 opponents to 25 or fewer made field goals and that includes last Monday's overtime game at Kansas State. Kansas ranks 14th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom and should be able to contend with a Texas Tech squad that sits 273rd in adjusted tempo (also according to KenPom). Note that Kansas is 15-11 ATS in its last 26 games following consecutive ATS losses and 18-13 ATS in its last 31 contests following a home win by three points or less, as is the case here. Texas Tech is 11-19 ATS in its last 30 games after holding its previous opponent to 60 points or less and 15-21 ATS in its last 36 contests as a home favorite of three points or less. Take Kansas (10*).

Pacific Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Golden State plus the points over Phoenix at 8:40 pm et on Saturday.

The Warriors are playing their best basketball of the season right now but so are the Suns. I do think Golden State is well-positioned to keep it rolling as it returns home on Saturday. Note that the Warriors have been red hot offensively, connecting on 43 or more field goals in 12 straight games including 47 or more in eight of those contests. They'll be facing a rather forgiving Suns defense on Saturday, noting that Phoenix has allowed 90 or more field goal attempts in seven of its last eight games. Golden State on the other hand has limited four of its last six foes to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. More impressively, the Warriors have held five of their last six opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals. The Suns are on a tear offensively but their shots have also been falling at an unsustainable rate as they've gotten off fewer than 90 field goal attempts in five straight and 12 of their last 14 contests. Phoenix is a long-term 15-31 ATS in its last 46 games and 1-5 ATS this season off a home win by 10 points or more, as is the case here. The Suns are also 12-16 ATS in their last 28 contests following three straight ATS victories. Golden State is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games as a home underdog and 9-2 ATS in its last 11 contests playing with triple-revenge (off three straight losses against an opponent). Take Golden State (10*).

Pac-12 Game of the Month. My selection is on UCLA plus the points over California at 5:30 pm et on Saturday.

This is undoubtedly a game the Bruins have had circled on their calendar since a stunning 66-57 home loss against the Bears back on January 6th. UCLA has certainly turned things around since that loss, going 6-2 over its last eight games. It holds the rest advantage here having not played since Wednesday’s win at Stanford. Cal was involved in an overtime barn-burner - a game that it won on Thursday against USC. The Bears continue to give up too many scoring opportunities for my liking, even if aided by overtime last time out. They’ve allowed seven of their last 11 opponents to hoist up at least 62 field goal attempts. While the Bears have knocked down at least 25 field goals themselves in eight straight contests they’ve needed more than 60 field goal attempts to get there in six of those games. UCLA figures to put the clamps on the Cal offense, noting that the Bruins have limited seven straight opponents to 54 or fewer field goal attempts. Note that UCLA is 18-12 ATS in its last 30 road games and a perfect 4-0 ATS when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent in which it scored 60 points or less. Meanwhile, Cal is 10-15 ATS in its last 25 games as a home favorite and 0-6 ATS in its last six contests after scoring 75 points or more in consecutive games, as is the case here. Take UCLA (10*).

MAAC Game of the Month. My selection is on Iona minus the points over Niagara at 7 pm et on Thursday.

This is a rematch of a game played between these two teams back on January 7th in which Niagara staged a 75-73 upset victory as a 9.5-point underdog. Since then, Iona has gone on a tear, winning five of its last six games while playing as well offensively as any team in the MAAC. I look for the Gaels to answer back against the Purple Eagles in this spot. Note that Iona has hoisted up more than 60 field goal attempts in each of its last seven games, putting a ton of pressure on opposing defenses. The Gaels haven't just been chucking it up though, they've also made good on 29 or more field goals in six of their last seven contests. Here, they draw a mouth-watering matchup against a Niagara team that ranks 320th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency (according to KenPom). The Purple Eagles did hold up reasonably well defensively in their last two games but those came against a slow-paced St. Peter's team on the road and a struggling Canisius squad at home. Note that Niagara is just two games removed from allowing a miserable Manhattan team to knock down 32-of-71 field goal attempts here at home. While the Purple Eagles did take the most recent meeting in this series, they haven't won consecutive matchups against the Gaels since 2020. Iona is a long-term 34-27 ATS in its last 61 games when seeking revenge for a loss by three points or less against an opponent. The Gaels are also 21-18 ATS in their last 39 contests following an ATS loss, as is the case here. Meanwhile, Niagara is 6-8 ATS in its last 14 games following consecutive wins in-conference and 5-7 ATS in its last 12 contests after holding its last two opponents to 65 points or less. Take Iona (10*).

West Coast Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Gonzaga minus the points over Portland at 8 pm et on Wednesday.

Portland used up everything it had in the tank in Saturday's 93-89 upset win over Pepperdine - its second straight victory. This has still been a trying campaign for the Pilots as they check in 9-15 including 2-11 on the road. They're in the wrong place at the wrong time on Wednesday as Gonzaga comes off a tough 64-62 loss at home against St. Mary's. The Bulldogs were held down by a good Gaels defense in that game but that isn't like to be the case on Wednesday. Portland has allowed seven of its last eight opponents to get off at least 62 field goal attempts with five of those foes knocking down at least 34. In fact, KenPom rates Portland 335th out of 362 Division-I teams in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency. Gonzaga has made good on 32 or more field goals in six of its last nine contests and ranks 28th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs have been steady if not spectacular defensively, limiting six consecutive opponents to 25 or fewer made field goals. Note that Portland is just 3-6 ATS in its last nine games as a road underdog of between 24.5 and 30 points and 26-44 ATS in its last 70 contests following a home win over a conference opponent. Gonzaga is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games following a home loss in-conference and 14-9 ATS in its last 23 contests following an upset loss at home. Take Gonzaga (10*).

Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over Golden State at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday.

The 76ers have lost two games in a row and six of their last seven overall as they struggled to adapt to life without Joel Embiid. I don't think Philadelphia is as bad as it has looked lately, however, and do think it will get things straightened out sooner rather than later. Note that the 76ers opponents have been shooting the lights out during their current slide. The good news is, the Sixers have continued to limit the opposition's scoring opportunities, allowing 87 or fewer field goal attempts in five of their last six games. On the flip side, it's only a matter of time before the Sixers start cashing in on their own opportunities, noting that they've hoisted up 94, 96 and 93 field goal attempts in their last three contests. The Warriors have gotten a little too loose for my liking defensively, allowing nine of their last 14 opponents to get off at least 89 field goal attempts. While it looks like Golden State has been lighting it up offensively during its current 3-1 run, it has actually been fairly muted, connecting on 44, 46, 46 and 43 field goals in regulation time over that stretch (still impressive numbers but not overwhelmingly so). For Golden State this will be its fifth game in five different cities in the last nine nights. Philadelphia on the other hand has the advantage of staying home for a third straight contest. Note that the Warriors are just 12-26 ATS in their last 38 games as a road favorite of six points or less and 10-13 ATS in their last 23 contests following a double-digit road win. Meanwhile, the 76ers are 29-14 ATS in their last 43 games when seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent, as is the case here. Philadelphia is also 21-17 ATS in its last 38 contests following a double-digit loss. Finally, we'll note that the favorite has covered the spread in three straight meetings in this series. It hasn't done so in four consecutive matchups between these two teams since 2010-12. Take Philadelphia (10*).

Big East Game of the Year. My selection is on St. John's minus the points over DePaul at 6:30 pm et on Tuesday.

The Blue Demons are mired in a miserable season and they're in the wrong place at the wrong time on Tuesday as they take on St. John's at UBS Arena. The Red Storm are coming off consecutive losses but those came on the road against Xavier and at home against Connecticut. They draw a smash spot here as the Blue Demons are as bad as they've been in quite some time and enter on the heels of 10 straight losses. DePaul has managed to knock down just 30 field goals over its last two games combined. The Blue Demons check in 289th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency this season according to KenPom. They haven't been much better defensively, allowing seven of their last eight opponents to make good on at least 30 field goals. St. John's figures to punish the DePaul defense here, noting the Red Storm rank 44th in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency and 94th in adjusted tempo. Keep in mind, St. John's has knocked down 32, 33, 37, 37 and 33 field goals in the last five meetings in this series and those came against much tougher Blue Demon squads. DePaul is just 9-14 ATS in its last 23 games as a double-digit underdog and 4-6 in its last 10 contests following a loss by 20 or more points in-conference. Meanwhile, St. John's is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 games after losing consecutive games in-conference and a long-term 24-18 ATS when those two losses came by double-digit margins, as is the case here. Take St. John's (10*).

Big 12 Game of the Year. My selection is on Kansas State minus the points over Oklahoma State at 2 pm et on Saturday.

Kansas State has fallen on hard times over its last three games and in particular in its last two contests, scoring only 52 and 53 points in losses against Houston and Oklahoma, respectively. I expect the Wildcats to bounce back on Saturday as they draw a manageable matchup at Oklahoma State. Kansas State still boasts a terrific defense. It has held eight of its last nine opponents to 23 or fewer made field goals. It should thrive in this matchup, noting that Oklahoma State has knocked down 22 or fewer field goals in six straight games. On the flip side, the Cowboys have sagged defensively, allowing nine of their last 11 opponents to connect on at least 25 field goals. In fact, five of their last eight foes have connected on 30 or more field goals. Note that Kansas State is 16-11 ATS in its last 27 lined road games. The Wildcats are also 5-1 ATS in their last six contests following an upset loss, as is the case here. Oklahoma State is a miserable 12-26 ATS in its last 38 games as an underdog and 10-16 ATS in its last 26 contests when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent. Take Kansas State (10*).

Revenge Game of the Year. My selection is on USC plus the points over Oregon at 10:30 pm et on Thursday.

This will be the second meeting between these Pac-12 opponents this season after Oregon posted an 82-74 win in Eugene back on December 28th. Note that the Ducks held a major advantage at the free throw line in that contest, getting there 32 times compared to the Trojans' 15. Oregon outscored USC 26-10 from the charity stripe, making up more than the difference in the game. The Trojans enter this contest riding a five-game losing streak. They connected on just 17 field goals in a dismal showing at home against UCLA last time out. Note that the only previous time they were held to fewer than 20 made field goals this season they rebounded with a double-digit win in their next contest (albeit against Brown). I like USC's chances of rebounding offensively here as well, noting that Oregon has allowed 27 or more made field goals in six of its last seven games. The Ducks have been ultra-consistent offensively but they're in uncharted territory right now having scored 70+ points in a season-high seven straight games. Oregon has won consecutive meetings in this series but hasn't delivered three straight victories over USC since owning the series from 2010-17. Note that Oregon is just 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games as a road favorite including an 0-1 ATS mark this season. USC checks in 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games following an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite and 12-7 in its last 19 contests when the line is set between +3 and -3. Take USC (10*).

Eastern Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Indiana plus the points over Boston at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday.

There's nothing to fear when it comes to facing the Celtics right now as they've clearly been off their game in recent weeks, going 8-10 ATS over their last 18 games. They're in a tough back-to-back spot on Tuesday after staging a massive fourth quarter rally against the Pelicans to avoid a second straight defeat. Note that Boston has been held to 43 or fewer made field goals in nine of its last 11 games. On the flip side, it has allowed more than 40 made field goals in six straight contests with its last four opponents connecting on 43, 42, 45 and 46 field goals. The Pacers on the other hand have reeled off three straight wins and are heating up again offensively, knocking down 43, 53, 58 and 44 field goals over their last four games. They've also held five of their last seven foes to 44 or fewer made field goals - that's progress for this team defensively. The Celtics will be looking to avenge a 133-131 loss in Indiana back on January 8th but they check in just 10-16 ATS in their last 26 games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent as a road favorite. Meanwhile, the Pacers are 44-38 ATS in their last 82 games as a road underdog. Take Indiana (10*).

Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Cleveland plus the points over Los Angeles at 7:10 pm et on Monday.

The Clippers roll into this game on the heels of five straight wins, including a stunning rout of the Celtics in Boston on Saturday. The Cavaliers are also red hot, however, having won nine of their last 10 games and I look for them to give the Clips all they can handle on Monday. Note that Los Angeles, while known for its stout defense, has played a little looser lately, allowing 90 or more field goal attempts in four straight games. Of Los Angeles' last eight opponents, six have managed to knock down more than 40 field goals. The Cavs don't generally play at a fast pace but have appeared comfortable doing so during their current run, hoisting up more than 90 field goal attempts in four of their last six contests. They remain as locked-in defensively as any team in the league right now having held six of their last seven opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals. Note that the Clips are just 10-13 ATS in their last 23 games following an upset win and 5-10 ATS in their last 15 contests when that upset win came on the road. They're also a long-term 15-23 ATS in their last 38 games following five straight ATS wins. Cleveland is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 contests following a double-digit upset win on the road, as is the case here. The Cavs are also a long-term 41-26 ATS in their last 67 games following a double-digit victory. Take Cleveland (10*).

MAC Game of the Year. My selection is on Ohio plus the points over Kent State at 6:30 pm et on Friday.

I really like the way this one sets up for the underdog Bobcats as they look to bounce back following a home loss to Akron last time out. Kent State is fresh off a minor upset win at Bowling Green earlier this week but checks in having lost consecutive games at home. Note that the Golden Flashes have won four straight meetings in this series. That's worth mentioning as they haven't won five in a row against the Bobcats since 2009-11. The last time they managed to win four straight games in this series was back in 2014-16 and they went on to lose the next two meetings. While Ohio doesn't rate out all that highly in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency this season it has played better in that regard lately. The Bobcats have held four straight and nine of their last 11 opponents to 26 or fewer made field goals. Kent State on the other hand has given up 28 or more made field goals in five of its last six contests. Offensively, the two teams have been almost mirror images however you could argue that Ohio has been the more consistent team lately in that regard, connecting on 26 or more field goals in six of its last seven games (Kent State made good on 21, 32, 21 and 31 field goals over its last four contests). Ohio is 7-5 ATS in its last 12 games following a road loss against a conference opponent. The Bobcats are also 5-2 ATS in their last seven contests after being held to 60 points or less in their previous game. Meanwhile, Kent State is 4-6 ATS in its last 10 games following a road win in which it scored 85 points or more, as is the case here. The Golden Flashes are also just 1-5 ATS following an ATS victory this season. Take Ohio (10*).

Pacific Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Sacramento minus the points over Golden State at 10 pm et on Thursday.

Tough spot for the Warriors here as they play the second of back-to-backs following an emotional return to the floor (following the death of their assistant coach last week) in a rout of the Hawks last night. Sacramento comes in rested following consecutive off days, which came on the heels of a much-needed 122-107 win over those same Hawks on Monday. That victory snapped a four-game losing skid. Note that Sacramento is still 5-2 ATS over its last seven contests as the schedule has certainly gotten tougher lately. This marks the start of a key seven-game road trip for the Kings. Note that they check in 26-17 ATS in their last 43 games as a road favorite and 18-10 ATS in their last 28 contests after losing four of their last five games. Meanwhile, the Warriors are 4-15 ATS in their last 19 games after scoring 130 points or more in their previous contest, as is the case here. They're also just 11-14 ATS in their last 25 contests following a win by 20 points or more. Take Sacramento (10*).

SEC Game of the Week. My selection is on Mississippi State plus the points over Florida at 8:30 pm et on Wednesday.

Mississippi State checks in 0-2-1 ATS over its last three games but I look for it to break out of that slump as it travels to Gainesville to face the Gators on Wednesday. The Bulldogs are an underdog we like to back as they have the ability to consistently erase opponents' possessions and effectively shorten proceedings. Note that they've limited the opposition to 22-of-56 shooting on average on the road this season. They've held seven of their last eight opponents to 27 or fewer made field goals and that's notable as Florida is just 1-5 ATS when knocking down 27 or fewer field goals this season. The Gators check in off a double-digit win at Missouri last time out, successfully rebounding from a blowout loss in Tennessee four nights earlier. Florida has been as Jekyll-and-Hyde as it gets, particularly on defense as it has given up more than 30 made field goals in three of its last five contests. It has had no desire to slow the pace, certainly not at home where it has yielded an average of 65 field goal attempts per game to the opposition. Noting the Bulldogs have knocked down 25 or more field goals in six straight and nine of their last 10 games overall, I look for them to take full advantage here. The underdog has gone 6-3 ATS in the last nine meetings in this series. The Bulldogs are 20-15 ATS in their last 35 road games as an underdog of 3.5 to 6 points. Meanwhile, the Gators are just 13-17 ATS in their last 30 contests following a double-digit victory. Take Mississippi State (10*).

Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Charlotte plus the points over Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday.

It may seem a little strange to be throwing around a term like 'revenge' when it comes to two teams that have combined for only four wins this season. I believe it works in this particular situation, however. Charlotte actually opened the campaign with an upset win at home against Atlanta. It couldn't build on that victory though as it fell as a 4.5-point favorite at home against the lowly Pistons two nights later. Note that the road team is 5-2 SU and ATS in the last seven meetings in this series. Charlotte dealt Terry Rozier to the Heat in exchange for Kyle Lowry and a first round draft pick yesterday. It was the right move. Rozier certainly adds a lot offensively, particularly as a facilitator but he has become a liability defensively this season. Consider it a case of addition by subtraction at that end of the floor. Note that the Hornets have actually held up reasonably well defensively in recent weeks. They've limited seven straight opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. They also enter this contest having held four of their last five foes to 44 or fewer made field goals. It's been a much different story for the Pistons. They've allowed six of their last seven opponents to get off at least 90 field goal attempts. You would have to go back nine games to find the last time they limited an opponent to fewer than 41 made field goals. Note that Charlotte is 12-6 ATS in its last 18 games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent as a favorite. This season, the Hornets are 6-4 ATS when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent, which is also the situation here. Detroit on the other hand is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games as a home favorite including an 0-3 ATS mark this season. It is also a long-term 8-18 ATS in its last 26 contests when playing at home with the total set at 230 points or higher, as is the case here. Take Charlotte (10*).

ACC Game of the Year. My selection is on Boston College plus the points over Virginia Tech at 9 pm et on Tuesday.

Like clockwork, Boston College has delivered five straight outright victories as an underdog in this series, going a perfect 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings. While I'm not calling for an outright win on Tuesday, I do expect the Eagles to once again hang tough against the Hokies in Blacksburg. Note that Boston College has dropped the cash in four straight games, going 1-3 ATS over that stretch. Meanwhile, Virginia Tech is fresh off an 84-78 upset win at N.C. State on Saturday. We have seen the Hokies offense sag at times since the beginning of ACC play, knocking down 26 or fewer field goals in four of six games. Also note that Virginia Tech plays at a rather methodical pace, hoisting up 58 or fewer field goal attempts in each of its last 11 and 16 of 18 games overall this season. That leaves little margin for error when you're laying a considerable number of points as the Hokies are on Tuesday. On the flip side, we've seen Virginia Tech's opposition get some good looks, connecting on 30, 28, 28, 27, 25 and 26 field goals in its last six contests. Boston College has run into a bit of a shooting slump, knocking down only 21 and 19 field goals in its last two games. Note that prior to that, the Eagles had made good on an impressive 30 or more field goals in six of their previous eight contests. Defensively, we've actually seen some improvement from Boston College lately as it has limited three of its last four opponents to 25 of fewer made field goals. Note that the Eagles are 17-12 ATS in their last 29 games following a loss against a conference opponent. They're also 13-7 ATS in their last 20 contests after losing four games in a row ATS. Meanwhile, Virginia Tech is 15-23 ATS in its last 38 games following an upset win away from home and 23-26 ATS in its last 49 contests as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. Take Boston College (10*).

Big 12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Kansas minus the points over Cincinnati at 9 pm et on Monday.

Kansas was stunned as a double-digit road favorite against West Virginia on Saturday but I look for the Jayhawks to bounce back on as they return home to face Cincinnati on Monday. That loss to the Mountaineers doesn't change the fact that Kansas is an offensive juggernaut having knocked down 31, 32, 24, 29, 36 and 32 field goals over its last six games. The Jayhawks have held four straight opponents to 60 or fewer field goal attempts. West Virginia quite simply shot the lights out against them on Saturday. It happens. Cincinnati is finding the Big 12 about as difficult as expected having dropped three of its last four games. Since the start of conference play, the Bearcats have been held to 24 or fewer made field goals in three of five games. Note that Cincinnati is just 33-40 ATS in its last 73 games following an upset loss in-conference, as is the case here. Kansas checks in a long-term 41-29 ATS off a road loss in Big 12 play. It's easy to think the sky is falling in Lawrence following a loss like the Jayhawks suffered on Saturday. That's simply not the case, however, as Kansas is 15-3 on the campaign despite facing the 26th most difficult schedule in the country according to KenPom. Take Kansas (10*).

Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Cleveland minus the points over Orlando at 7:10 pm et on Monday.

The Cavaliers got off to a difficult start this season but they've since turned it around, going 12-3 SU and 11-4 ATS over their last 15 games. Perhaps no team is as locked-in defensively as Cleveland right now as it has held four straight opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals and an incredible 11 straight foes to 42 or fewer made field goals. Orlando delivered a blowout win over Miami last night. The Magic aren't exactly setting the world on fire offensively right now as they've knocked down fewer than 40 field goals in seven straight games. In fact, they've been held to 44 or fewer made field goals in 14 straight contests. Meanwhile, the Cavs have connected on 43 or more field goals in six of their last nine games including 49 or more three times over that stretch. Note that Cleveland is 40-25 ATS in its last 65 games following a double-digit win, as is the case here. The Cavs are also a long-term 48-43 ATS when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent in which they allowed 100 or more points. Orlando is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 contests following a win over a division opponent and 13-17 ATS in its last 30 contests after a double-digit victory. Take Cleveland (10*).

MAAC Game of the Week. My selection is on Manhattan plus the points over Fairfield at 2 pm et on Sunday.

While Fairfield is coming off a hard-fought nine-point home win over St. Peter's on Friday, Manhattan has been idle since last Sunday, when it suffered its eighth straight defeat. I look for the Jaspers to give the Stags all they can handle in this spot, noting Manhattan has gone 30-24 ATS in its last 54 games as an underdog and 25-22 ATS in its last 47 contests following a double-digit home loss. While Fairfield's offense has been humming it has been vulnerable defensively, allowing 30, 28, 26, 23, 34, 26 and 26 field goals over its last seven contests. Manhattan has employed a similar matador-like defense but it isn't the team laying all the points in this spot. Fairfield is 9-13 ATS in its last 22 games played on one day or less of rest and 2-7 ATS in its last nine contests following a home win over a conference opponent. Additionally, the Stags are a long-term 22-29 ATS after scoring 75 points or more in consecutive games. Also note that the underdog is 5-0-1 ATS in the last six meetings in this series. Take Manhattan (10*).

Divisional Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Baltimore minus the points over Houston at 4:30 pm et on Saturday.

I don't think it can be understated just how well the Ravens were playing prior to resting their starters in Week 18 against Pittsburgh (they lost that game 17-10). They had won six straight games heading into that contest, going 5-1 ATS over that stretch. The wins were all impressive including a 37-31 victory over the Rams in a rainstorm in Baltimore, a 33-19 rout of the 49ers in Santa Clara and a 56-19 dismantling of the Dolphins at home. I love what the Texans have done this season. They're undoubtedly a team on the rise and C.J. Stroud is already being talked about as a top-five quarterback in the league (rightfully so). They're running into an extremely difficult matchup here, however. The Ravens aren't the type of team to take their foot off the gas and they have favorable matchups all over the field on offense. Not only has Houston struggled to defend the pass this season but it has had a miserable time containing running quarterbacks, having allowed a whopping seven rushing touchdowns to opposing signal-callers. Derek Stingley Jr. erased Amari Cooper in last week's blowout win over the Browns but he'll be hard-pressed to do so against anyone particular in the Ravens multi-pronged aerial attack on Saturday. With TE Mark Andrews trending toward playing trouble abounds for the second level of the Texans defense. Even if Andrews can't go, TE Isaiah Likely figures to go off. Note that Houston is 4-7 ATS in its last 11 games following an upset victory, as is the case here. In fact, the Texans are 7-16 ATS in their last 23 contests following an outright win as a home underdog. They're also 8-19 ATS in their last 27 games following three straight ATS victories. Meanwhile, the Ravens are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following a loss against a division opponent. They're also 35-27 ATS in their last 62 contests following a home loss. Take Baltimore (10*).

Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Denver plus the points over Boston at 7:40 pm et on Friday.

The Celtics are an incredible 20-0 at home this season but I do think the Nuggets are poised to give them a run on Friday at TD Garden. Boston is coming off three straight wins, both SU and ATS. Note that the Celtics are just 12-23 ATS in their last 35 games following consecutive ATS victories in a favorite role and 3-6 ATS in their last nine contests when coming off three straight covers as a fave, as is the case here. Boston is also 6-11 ATS in its last 17 games after holding consecutive opponents to 100 points or less, which is also the situation here. Denver had virtually all hands on deck for Tuesday's game in Philadelphia but ultimately fell by a 126-121 score. Having had a couple of days off to chew on that loss, I look for the Nuggets to bounce back on Friday. Note that Denver is 24-15 ATS in its last 39 contests after losing five or six of its last seven games ATS, as is the case here. The Nuggets check in red hot offensively having knocked down 45 or more field goals in five of their last six games. They figure to be afforded plenty of scoring opportunities against a Celtics squad that has allowed more than 90 field goal attempts in 12 straight games. Take Denver (10*).

SEC Game of the Year. My selection is on Mississippi State plus the points over Kentucky at 7 pm et on Wednesday.

Both of these teams are coming off narrow defeats in conference play with Mississippi State dropping an 82-74 decision at home against Alabama and Kentucky falling by a 97-92 score at Texas A&M. I don't believe there's as much separating these two squads as the line would seem to indicate. The Bulldogs are an elite defensive team, currently ranked inside the top-10 in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom. Incredibly, they've held all 16 opponents they've faced to 28 or fewer made field goals this season with 12 of those knocking down 24 or less. Kentucky does play at a considerably faster pace than Mississippi State but there's no denying its opponents have been 'filling it up' as it has allowed 26 or more made field goals in 10 of its last 11 contests. On the flip side, the Wildcats have regularly been connecting on 30+ field goals but they've also gotten off 63 or more field goal attempts in six of their last seven contests. Only six of Mississippi State's 16 opponents have hoisted up more than 60 field goal attempts this season with a high water mark of only 64. This is a game the Bulldogs have undoubtedly had circled on their calendar having lost two straight meetings in this series. Note that while Kentucky has controlled this series for the most part, the games have been close with six straight matchups having been decided by eight points or less. Mississippi State is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games when coming off an upset loss as a favorite in-conference, as is the case here. Meanwhile, Kentucky is just 10-16 ATS in its last 26 contests after winning two of its last three games ATS. Take Mississippi State (10*).

Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Memphis plus the points over Golden State at 6 pm et on Monday.

The Warriors opened their current road trip with a win in Chicago as they rallied for a wild 140-131 victory. They couldn't keep it going the next night as they dropped a double-digit decision in Milwaukee (Steph Curry was given the night off). While this looks like a prime bounce-back spot given the current state of the Grizzlies roster, I'm not so easily convinced. Memphis lost by 'only' 11 points against a red hot Knicks squad with a lineup that looked like what you would expect in the preseason on Saturday. Note that the Grizzlies have held five of their last seven opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. Regardless who is able to suit up for Memphis on Monday, it should thrive offensively. Note that the opposition has been 'filling it up' against the Warriors lately, knocking down 50 or more field goals in four straight games against them and 48 or more in six of the last eight contests. Note that the underdog has gone 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings in this series. The Grizzlies check in 17-10 ATS in their last 27 games after scoring 100 points or less in their previous contest, as is the case here. They're also 27-17 ATS in their lat 44 games following consecutive ATS losses. Take Memphis (10*).

Wild Card Game of the Year. My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over Pittsburgh at 4:30 pm et on Monday.

UPDATE: This game has been moved to Monday. I’ll still be playing the Bills minus the points.

Weather can be the great equalizer at this time of year and with high winds projected for kickoff of this Wild Card matchup on Sunday afternoon in Orchard Park, there are those that believe that will favor the underdog Steelers who are essentially playing with house money at this point. I think it's going to be a real struggle for Pittsburgh to score points in this game, regardless how the weather turns out. Buffalo somewhat quietly enters this game riding a five-game winning streak including a 21-14 victory in Miami last Sunday night to secure the AFC East division title and the Wild Card home game that goes with it. Unlike previous years, the Bills have been forced to essentially play playoff football for weeks just to get into the postseason. I think that actually works in their favor this year and while the road to the Super Bowl runs through Baltimore in the AFC, I believe the argument can be made that the Bills are playing as well as any team in the conference right now. Pittsburgh is in this game thanks to a three-game stretch at the end of the regular season that saw it face the Bengals (without Joe Burrow among others), Seahawks (who got worse as the season went on) and the Ravens (resting the majority of their starters). Note that the Steelers are just 4-7 ATS in their last 11 games following a road win. Meanwhile, Buffalo is 20-14 ATS in its last 34 home contests as a favorite of between 7.5 and 14 points. Take Buffalo (10*).

NFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Detroit at 8:15 pm et on Sunday.

The Rams enter the playoffs playing as well as anyone over the last two months, winners of seven of their last eight games having gone 6-2 ATS over that stretch. They're in their sweet spot on Sunday as they've gone 25-18 ATS in their last 43 road games as an underdog of three points or less. Meanwhile, the Lions are just 12-19 ATS in their last 31 games following a double-digit victory over a division opponent, as is the case here. Detroit head coach Dan Campbell elected to play his starters in last Sunday's win over the Vikings and paid the price to a certain extent with standout rookie TE Sam LaPorta suffering an injury. He has actually been able to get in limited practice this week and is expected to play but it remains to be seen how effective he can actually be. Regardless, I don't believe this is a favorable matchup for the Lions. I don't think there's anything more dangerous than an experienced team that catches fire late in the season and goes on the road in the Wild Card round of the playoffs. The pressure rests squarely on the Lions shoulders in their first home playoff game in three decades. Keep in mind, Detroit played another seemingly massive home game back on Thanksgiving Day against the Packers and was stunned 29-22 as a near-double-digit favorite. Few teams can match Detroit's personnel at the skill positions on offense but Los Angeles is one of them with the emergence of rookie WR Puka Nacua and RB Kyren Williams this season. Note that the underdog has gone 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings in this series. Take Los Angeles (10*).

Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Sacramento plus the points over Milwaukee at 7:10 pm et on Sunday.

The Kings got their current road trip off to a perfect 2-0 start before running into the 76ers in Philadelphia on Friday. The road won't get any easier with a stop in Milwaukee on deck on Sunday but I look for Sacramento to hang tough. This is undoubtedly a matchup the Kings have had circled on their calendar having lost an incredible 14 straight meetings in this series going back to 2016. There have been plenty of close games over that stretch and I certainly feel that the Kings have closed the talent gap somewhat in recent years. Note that the Kings enter this contest sporting a 10-8 road record (11-7 ATS) while the Bucks are 18-3 SU at home but a money-burning 8-13 ATS. Sacramento has quietly held three straight opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals. Going back farther, the Kings have limited 15 of their last 19 foes to 44 or fewer made field goals. On the flip side, Sacramento has hoisted up more than 90 field goal attempts in seven of its last eight contests. The Bucks have shown on interest or ability to slow down the opposition, yielding at least 90 field goal attempts in 16 of their last 18 contests. The Kings are a long-term 60-42 ATS when playing on the road and 34-26 ATS in their last 60 road games as an underdog. Meanwhile, the Bucks are just 37-41 ATS in their last 78 games following a home win and a long-term 80-103 ATS when coming off consecutive home victories. Take Sacramento (10*).

Pac-12 Game of the Week. My selection is on Oregon minus the points over California at 8 pm et on Saturday.

I can't help but think California is walking into a hornet's nest in Eugene on Saturday. The Golden Bears trailed big early but staged a furious rally in the second half to upset Colorado two nights ago in Berkeley. Now they have to hit the road to face a red hot Oregon squad that has won five straight and eight of its last nine games, going 7-2 ATS over that stretch. The Ducks have been idle since last Saturday's five-point win as an underdog at Washington State. Cal has been thriving offensively but here it runs into an Oregon squad that has held seven of its last eight opponents to 56 field goal attempts or less. Note that Cal is just 3-5 ATS in its last eight games following consecutive wins. Meanwhile, Oregon is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games after allowing 80 points or more in its previous contest, as is the case here. Take Oregon (10*).

Big Ten Game of the Month. My selection is on Maryland minus the points over Michigan at 7 pm et on Thursday.

Both of these Big Ten squads enter on a downturn with the Wolverines having dropped four in a row SU and five straight games ATS and the Terrapins fresh off three straight losses, including two in a row ATS. I think it's Maryland that's much better-positioned to rebound on Thursday. The Wolverines matador-like defense just isn't cutting it. Michigan has allowed a boatload of scoring opportunities on a seemingly every game basis and its opposition has made the most of those opportunities, knocking down 26 or more field goals in eight straight games. The Terps offense went cold over the last couple of games but that was to be expected against the likes of Purdue and Minnesota. Here, taking a step down in class should benefit the Terps. Maryland does possess a defense as well, having held five straight opponents to fewer than 26 made field goals and an impressive eight straight foes to 26 or less. The home team has owned this series lately, taking five straight meetings both SU and ATS. Take Maryland (10*).

NFC West Game of the Month. My selection is on Seattle minus the points over Arizona at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

The Seahawks are of course in a must-win situation in Arizona on Sunday and while I'll rarely look to back teams on that premise alone, I do like the way this spot sets up for Seattle (which needs a victory and some help to get into the playoffs). First we'll note that Seattle has owned this series recently, going 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. The road team is also a long-term 14-6-1 ATS in the last 21 matchups between these two teams. The Cardinals are in a big letdown spot here after upsetting the Eagles in Philadelphia last Sunday. Few expected them to be remotely competitive in that game. Of course, what worked last week may not work this week. The Cardinals ran wild on the Eagles. While the Seahawks haven't exactly played stout run defense, they do get back one of their best run stoppers in LB Jordyn Brooks from an ankle injury this week. Seattle is a long-term 121-100 ATS when coming off a loss and 62-45 ATS after giving up 30 points or more in their last game. The Cards are 7-11 ATS when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent and 15-19 ATS in their last 34 games after scoring 35 points or more in their previous contest. Take Seattle (10*).

Pac-12 Game of the Year. My selection is on Washington minus the points over Oregon State at 6 pm et on Saturday.

The Huskies are surprisingly at the bottom of the Pac-12 standings sporting an 0-3 record in early conference action. Keep in mind, this is a team that upset Gonzaga earlier this season and ranks just outside the top-50 in the country according to KenPom. Not only that but the Huskies are battle-tested having faced the 17th most difficult schedule in the country so far this season (also according to KenPom). They let Oregon off the hook two nights ago, jumping out in front by a wide margin early before settling for a halftime lead but then folding in the final 20 minutes. Of course, Oregon is no pushover. Here, Washington should benefit from facing an Oregon State squad that figures to eventually reside near the bottom of the Pac-12 standings. The Beavers currently rank 159th in KenPom's national rankings and have only faced the 146th toughest slate of opponents. The home team has gone 5-1 SU and ATS in the last six meetings in this series. Note that Oregon State is just 9-17 ATS in its last 26 games following an ATS victory, as is the case here. Meanwhile, Washington is an exceptional 18-5 ATS in its last 23 contests following a loss against a conference foe. Take Washington (10*).

MAAC Game of the Year. My selection is on Niagara minus the points over Manhattan at 7 pm et on Friday.

The Purple Eagles are off to an 0-2 start in MAAC play but they draw a favorable matchup on the road against Manhattan on Friday. Note that Niagara is coming off an upset win at Buffalo last time out. It should be able to take advantage of a Jaspers squad that has seen the opposition 'fill it up' this season and particularly of late. Manhattan has given up 36, 34, 31, 25, 28, 29 and 26 made field goals over its last seven games. Even in the game where it allowed just 25 made field goals it still suffered a double-digit loss on the road against MAAC foe Marist. Niagara is 21-18 ATS in its last 39 road games as a favorite of three points or less, as is the case here at the time of writing. Meanwhile, Manhattan is just 12-15 ATS in its last 27 lined home contests. Take Niagara (10*).

Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Boston at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday.

It seems as though the Thunder still aren't being treated like an elite team in the betting marketplace. Here, they're installed as a home underdog against the Celtics, despite playing some of their best basketball of the season - a red hot 7-1 SU and ATS over their last eight games. While Oklahoma City is gaining a reputation for being an outstanding offensive team, and for good reason, I've been even more impressed by its defensive play. Note that the Thunder have allowed just three of their last seven opponents to knock down 40+ field goals. In stark contrast, the Celtics have allowed 40+ made field goals in seven straight and 13 of their last 14 contests. Both teams come in following an off day on Monday. The difference I see here is that Boston will be playing in its sixth different city since December 19th while Oklahoma City has only had to leave home for a single game (in Denver) over that same period. Finally, we'll note that the Celtics are a long-term 95-126 ATS when coming off a double-digit road win, as is the case here. Take Oklahoma City (10*).

Bowl Game of the Year. My selection is on Iowa plus the points over Tennessee at 1 pm et on Monday.

Talk about disrespect. Iowa enters the Citrus Bowl sporting a better record than Tennessee and is almost certainly bringing a more complete roster to the game than the Vols, yet here it is installed as a considerable underdog in a game that figures to be low-scoring (a situation that would certainly favor the Hawkeyes). Note that Iowa has reeled off four wins in its last five Bowl appearances (the lone loss came by just three points against Kentucky on this field two years ago to the day) and figures to be in a foul mood after a 26-0 drubbing at the hands of Michigan in the Big Ten Championship Game. The Hawkeyes won't have standout TE Erick All or QB Cade McNamara but we know they're not all about offense anyway. I'm confident the Iowa defense will be fired up about facing Vols highly-touted blue chip freshman QB recruit Nico Iamaleava rather than Joe Milton in this matchup. Note that Iowa is an incredible 66-33 ATS in its last 99 games after losing ATS in two of its last three contests, as is the case here. The Hawkeyes are also 9-5 ATS in their last 14 games a neutral field underdog of a touchdown or less. Meanwhile, Tennessee is a miserable 42-61 ATS in its last 103 games following a home victory by 17 points or more. Take Iowa (10*).

AFC Game of the Week. My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over Cincinnati at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

This is a massive bounce-back spot for both of these teams with the Bengals coming off a stunning beatdown in Pittsburgh and the Chiefs fresh off a Christmas Day upset at home at the hands of the hated Raiders. The difference here is, Kansas City has the personnel in place to bounce back. Cincinnati, in its current form, does not. The Bengals defense has been a massive disappointment this season, unable to stop the run or the pass. Needless to say, despite its struggles against Las Vegas on Monday, Kansas City has the pieces in place to explode on offense. This is a smash spot for Chiefs TE Travis Kelce in particular. With all signs pointing to Chiefs RB Isaiah Pacheco being good to go as well, we'll give Kansas City the green light on offense on Sunday. It's a different story for the Bengals as they try to squeeze as much as they can out of QB Jake Browning. He has regressed considerably and has yet to truly riff with elite WR Ja'Marr Chase, who is expected back this week. Note that the Chiefs are a long-term 63-47 ATS in their last 110 games after losing two of their last three contests, as is the case here. The Bengals are just 8-14 ATS in their last 22 games following a loss by 21 points or more against a divisional opponent, which is the situation they're in on Sunday. Take Kansas City (10*).

NFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Dallas minus the points over Detroit at 8:15 pm et on Saturday.

The Cowboys are in a prime bounce-back spot as they return home following consecutive losses in Buffalo and Miami. Detroit on the other hand finds itself in a letdown spot after clinching the NFC North division with last week's win (and cover) in Minnesota. While I fully expect Dallas to crash and burn at some point in the playoffs, I do think it has plenty of upside over the next 2-3 weeks. Note that the Lions are a miserable 12-30 ATS in their last 42 road games following consecutive wins. Meanwhile, Dallas is a perfect 6-0 in its last six home games as a favorite of a touchdown or less. The Cowboys are also 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS defeat, as is the case here. Take Dallas (10*).

Bowl Game of the Week. My selection is on Toledo plus the points over Wyoming at 4:30 pm et on Saturday.

This line has shifted considerably with the news that Toledo QB Dequan Finn has entered the transfer portal and will miss this game. I still like Toledo's chances of giving Wyoming all it can handle on Saturday afternoon. Note that the Rockets will be out to erase the memory of a disappointing loss in the MAC Championship Game against Miami-Ohio. There's no reason for the disappointment to linger as you could argue the Rockets still ended up with a higher-profile Bowl game. Wyoming closed out the regular season with consecutive blowout wins over Hawaii and Nevada. The Cowboys inability to step up in class turned out to be their downfall in the Mountain West Conference this season as they fell short against the likes of Air Force, Boise State and UNLV. I expect them to similarly have their hands full with a very capable Rockets squad here. Note that Toledo is 24-8 ATS in its last 32 games after scoring 14 points or less in its previous contest, as is the case here. Wyoming is 0-4 ATS in its last four games after posting a road victory by 28 points or more. Take Toledo (10*).

Pac-12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Oregon minus the points over USC at 9 pm et on Thursday.

USC snapped a three-game losing streak with a 20-point rout of Alabama State last time out but it should find the going much tougher on Thursday as it opens Pac-12 play with a showdown against Oregon in Eugene. The Ducks rebounded from a 20-point beatdown at the hands of Syracuse by defeating Kent State 84-70 prior to the break. Oregon is now 4-1 SU and ATS over its last five contests. I like the Ducks chances of going off offensively in this one as USC's opponents have been stuffing the boxscores, knocking down 24 or more field goals in nine of 11 games to date. Oregon doesn't mind pushing the pace having hoisted up 60 or more field goal attempts in eight of its 11 contests so far this season. Take Oregon (10*).

NFC North Game of the Year. My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday.

Easy call for us here as we'll back the underdog Vikings at home after they dropped a hard-fought 27-24 decision in Cincinnati last Saturday while the Lions rolled to a blowout in over the Broncos. Note that the home team has gone 6-1 SU in the last seven meetings in this series. Detroit is just one game removed from a 15-point loss in Chicago and checks in a miserable 17-32 ATS in its last 49 games as a road favorite. Minnesota on the other hand is 40-24 ATS in its last 64 games as a home underdog and 6-2 ATS in its last eight contests following a loss by six points or less. Take Minnesota (10*).

AFC North Game of the Month. My selection is on Pittsburgh plus the points over Cincinnati at 4:30 pm et on Saturday.

These teams are quite clearly heading in opposite directions right now but I like the Steelers chances of snapping their three-game losing streak as they stare down consecutive road games in Seattle and Baltimore to close out the season. Remember, on November 26th the Steelers went into Cincinnati as road favorites and delivered a 16-10 victory. No Kenny Pickett this time around but Pittsburgh will be essentially facing the same Bengals led by QB Jake Browning but with no WR Ja'Marr Chase or nose tackle D.J. Reader. The Steelers offense has fallen on hard times and will now turn to third-stringer Mason Rudolph at quarterback. While that's not all that encouraging, I don't believe he'll be asked to do too much as the Steelers should be able to run all over the Bengals front line. Note that Pittsburgh is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games after giving up 30 or more points in its most recent contest while it is also 33-18 ATS in its last 51 home games following a double-digit loss. Take Pittsburgh (10*).

Bowl Game of the Week. My selection is on Duke plus the points over Troy at 12 noon et on Saturday.

It can be difficult enough to get up for a pre-Christmas Bowl game, especially in today's college football landscape. For Troy, it enters this matchup riding a 10-game winning streak, having been favored in each of its last nine contests (make it 10 straight including this one). Much of the story around this game will be who isn't playing for the Blue Devils. I'm confident we'll see Duke rise to the occasion, however, and salvage the finale of a season that started off so promising back in early September. Remember, the Blue Devils opened the campaign with four straight victories, including a thrilling opening week victory over Clemson. The wheels came off from mid-October to mid-November but Duke didn't quit, managing to split its final four games, losing by a combined five points in the two losses over that stretch. Note that Troy checks in 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games after scoring 31 or more points in four consecutive games, as is the case here. Duke is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 lined non-conference games and 6-1 ATS in its last seven December Bowl games. Take Duke (10*).

Non-Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Oklahoma City minus the points over Los Angeles at 8:10 pm et on Thursday.

Tough spot for the Clippers here as they play the second of back-to-backs after reeling off consecutive wins to open their three-game road trip. In fact, they've won nine straight games overall and five in a row ATS. They played on consecutive nights only once over that stretch and that was at home against Sacramento. The Thunder have been home and cool since Monday, when they rolled to a 19-point win over the Grizzlies. They won't take the floor again until they host the Lakers on Saturday. You could argue that no team is healthier than the Thunder right now and only the Timberwolves own a better record in the Western Conference. The Clippers could understandably be caught looking ahead to a four-game homestand that will begin on Saturday against Boston and take them all the way into the New Year. Note that the home team has gone 10-1 in the last 11 meetings in this series. While we are being asked to lay a considerable number of points with Oklahoma City on this occasion, I believe the line is warranted. Take Oklahoma City (10*).

Revenge Game of the Year. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Minnesota at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday.

The Timberwolves used up a lot of what they had in the tank rallying for Monday's come-from-behind win in Miami - their third straight victory. I look for them to come up short on Wednesday as they stay on the road to face the 76ers. Philadelphia dropped a 108-104 decision against the Bulls on Monday, falling as a double-digit favorite. The 76ers are in a revenge spot here after losing 112-99 in Minnesota back in November. That's notable as they're an impressive 29-11 ATS in their last 40 games played when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent. They're also 34-19 ATS in their last 53 games as a home favorite. Meanwhile, Minnesota checks in 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games after winning five or six of its last seven games ATS, as is the case here. Take Philadelphia (10*).

AFC Game of the Year. My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over New England at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Chiefs are a screaming buy right now coming off consecutive losses, both SU and ATS, especially given the nature of last Sunday's home defeat against the Bills in which QB Patrick Mahomes in particular felt his team was shafted by the officials (even though it clearly wasn't). The SU winner has gone a perfect 13-0 ATS in the Patriots previous contests this season and I look for that trend to continue here. New England does have the rest advantage having not played since a week ago Thursday in Pittsburgh, when it staged a 21-18 upset victory. That win was about as ugly as it gets as the Pats gained just north of 300 total yards of offense and made an early lead stand up against Mitchell Trubisky and the Steelers. I don't need to tell you that there's an ocean between facing Trubisky and Mahomes, even with the Chiefs offense struggling at times this season. Note that Kansas City is a long-term 55-36 ATS when playing on the road following a loss. Meanwhile, New England is just 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games as an underdog. Take Kansas City (10*).

NFC Game of the Week. My selection is on New York plus the points over New Orleans at 1 pm et on Sunday.

This spot sets up beautifully for the Giants in the sense that they have the ground game to gash the Saints and effectively shorten proceedings as a considerable road underdog. QB Tommy DeVito has grabbed plenty of headlines for his surprisingly efficient play. I don't expect him to be asked to do too much in this spot. The Saints are coming off a blowout win over the hapless Panthers but that victory had more to do with Carolina's inability to finish drives than anything else. Note that New Orleans is just 2-8 ATS as a favorite this season and 4-13 ATS in its last 17 contests following an ATS victory. Meanwhile, the Giants are a long-term 113-83 ATS on the road against NFC foes and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 contests as an underdog of between 3.5 and 9.5 points. Take New York (10*).

Bowl Game of the Week. My selection is on Texas Tech minus the points over California at 9:15 pm et on Saturday.

California closed out the regular season with about as big of a win as you can get in Berkeley, defeating rival UCLA 33-7, securing Bowl eligibility in the process. The Bears needed to use everything they had in the tank to earn a Bowl spot, winning their final three games. Of course, they were favored in two of those contests so it's not as if it was a monumental accomplishment. Here, I think Cal is in the wrong place at the wrong time as it runs into a Texas Tech squad that will be eager to make amends for an embarrassing 57-7 loss against Texas in its regular season finale. The Red Raiders picked up some nice wins this season including on the road against Baylor and Kansas and at home against TCU. There were some bad losses in the mix as well but as a whole I was more encouraged by the Red Raiders consistency than I was with the Bears. Note that the loss against Texas sets Texas Tech up well here as it has gone a perfect 8-0 ATS in its last eight games following a road loss against a conference opponent. Meanwhile, Cal is a long-term 20-25 ATS in its last 45 games following an upset victory. Take Texas Tech (10*).

Non-Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Detroit minus the points over Denver at 8:15 pm et on Saturday.

NFL teams don't often get a shot at a 'do-over' but this is about as close as it comes for the Lions as they host the Broncos in a pre-holiday primetime game after laying an egg on Thanksgiving Day against the Packers. Adding fuel to Detroit's fire is the fact that it's coming off another stunning defeat against a divisional opponent in Chicago last Sunday. Perhaps QB Jared Goff's struggles in that contest were predictable as he hasn't travelled well over the course of his career. Here, he and the Lions draw a smash spot against a Broncos team that's 'fat and happy' off a 24-7 rout of the Chargers (who lost QB Justin Herbert to injury in the game) in Los Angeles last Sunday. Denver has improved, that's for sure. The Broncos are in the playoff picture thanks to a 6-1 SU run. I think they're in the wrong place at the wrong time on Saturday, however. Note that Denver is 1-5 ATS in its last six games following an upset win and 2-5 ATS in its last seven road contests as an underdog of a touchdown or less. Detroit on the other hand is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games following a double-digit loss. The last time we saw it in that situation it delivered a 26-14 win over the Raiders in a primetime game on October 30th. Take Detroit (10*).

Game of the Month. My selection is on Gonzaga plus the points over Connecticut at 10 pm et on Friday.

Needless to say, Gonzaga has had this rematch circled on its calendar after falling by an 82-54 score against Connecticut last March. The Bulldogs get this game in their own backyard at Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle and with an upset loss against in-state rival Washington last Saturday fresh in their minds, I look for them to make a statement here. While Connecticut does rank an impressive fourth in the country according to KenPom, it has also faced only the 321st most difficult schedule (also according to KenPom). Gonzaga ranks 11th in the country, taking a hit following last week's defeat against Washington. Note that the Bulldogs have gone up against the 86th toughest slate of opponents this season. Gonzaga is an impressive 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games following a home win but non-cover, as is the case here. UConn on the other hand is just 30-34 ATS in its last 64 contests following a victory by 30 or more points, which is also the situation on Friday. Take Gonzaga (10*).

TNF Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points first half over Las Vegas at 8:15 pm et on Thursday.

In a battle of backup quarterbacks with both teams missing a number of key contributors on offense, I'll grab the points with the Chargers in the first half. My issue with Los Angeles for the full game is head coach Brandon Staley's track record closing out football games. That's not to mention the fact that Raiders QB Aidan O'Connell will likely be on a short leash here and his presence is one of the main reasons I'm interested in fading Las Vegas. Should Jimmy Garoppolo get another shot at running the offense, I could see the Raiders getting a spark. I do think the Raiders will need to make considerable halftime adjustments to support their offensive line, which is missing a pair of starters due to injury. The Chargers are set up well to feast on that Raiders o-line in the first half. On the flip side, we'll likely see Los Angeles lean heavily on swiss army knife RB Austin Ekeler against a Raiders run defense that has been torched for 4.4 yards per rush this season. QB Easton Stick won't have his top target on the field in WR Keenan Allen but I do like Stick's arm, not to mention his mobility, which he flashed during his years with North Dakota State. Keep in mind, Stick has been with the Chargers since 2019 and has the advantage of being familiar with the playbook, something that O'Connell has seemingly struggled to grasp in his first season as a Raider. Note that Los Angeles is 15-5 ATS in the first half in its last 20 games following a double-digit upset loss, as is the case here. Meanwhile, Las Vegas is 0-6 ATS in the first half in its last six games when seeking revenge for a loss by seven points or less against an opponent, which is also the situation here. Take Los Angeles first half (10*).

Central Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Milwaukee minus the points over Indiana at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday.

The Bucks have obviously had this game circled since dropping an ugly one against the Pacers in the in-season tournament semi-final round last week. In fact, Indiana has taken both previous matchups between these two teams this season. Neither of those games were played in Milwaukee, however. The Bucks are 11-1 at home this season while the Pacers have given up just shy of 132 points per game on the road. Note that the Bucks are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 home games as a favorite of six points or less. Meanwhile, Indiana is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games following a victory over a division opponent, as is the case here. Milwaukee is a long-term 27-20 ATS when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent as a favorite and 24-19 ATS in its last 43 games following consecutive ATS defeats, which is also the situation here. Take Milwaukee (10*).