Sports Picks & Predictions

Nuggets @ Timberwolves 8:00 PM ET

Game# 511-512

Play On: Nuggets +3.0

After being embarrassed in the first 2 games of this series at home, Denver responded with a convincing 117-90 win at Minnesota in Game and did so as a 3.5-point underdog. Denver has gone a perfect 8-0 SU this season after allowing 99 points or fewer in their previous contest. The Nuggets are also 3-0 SU&ATS this season on the road following a win in their previous contest and outscored those opponents by 14.7 points per game. Denver is also 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 as an underdog. Conversely, Minnesota has gone 1-6-1 ATS this season as a home favorite of between 3.0 and 6.0 points. The Timberwolves lost 5 of those 8 games straight up as well.

Since the 2012 NBA Playoffs away underdog of 5.0 or less that are playing after Game 3 of a series, and they’re coming off an away underdog SU win by 10 points or more, resulted in those away underdogs going 6-0 SU&ATS. Those away underdogs in that specific role outscored their opponents by an average of 14.7 points per game. Give me the Nuggets plus points.

Celtics @ Cavaliers 8:30 PM ET

Game# 507-508

Play On: Celtics -7.5

The Celtics were in a similar season in Game 3 of the 1st round at Miami. They had just come off a Game 2 home double-digit favorite 111-101 loss to Miami and were a 9.5-point road favorite in the following game. Boston won that contest with ease 104-84. Now they’re coming off an embarrassing 118-94 Game 2 loss to Cleveland as a 13.5-point home favorite. I expect them to bounce back in a big way similar to what they did against Miami. Additionally, Cleveland is 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 this postseason following a win and were outscored by an average of 23.3 points per game. Give me the Celtics minus points

Knicks @ Pacers 7:00 PM ET

Game# 501-502

Play On: Pacers -6.5

The Pacers are coming off a 130-121 loss in Game 2 at New York on Wednesday night. Indiana has gone 10-0 SU and 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 this season following a game in which they scored 130 points or more. Indiana is also 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 at home immediately following an away loss in their previous game. The average line for Indiana in those 4 games was -7.4 and they won by a substantial margin of 24.2 points per game.

Conversely, the Knicks are 0-3 SU&ATS this season following a game in which they allowed 130 points or more and they lost by an average of 10.0 points per game. We must also keep in mind; the Knicks will be a shorthanded team in this one with 3 key players out for the year and O.G Anunoby listed as questionable after suffering a hamstring in Wednesday’s 1st half. They also loss center Mitchell Robinson for the season after he suffered ankle injury in Game 1 of this series. Not to mention Bojan Bogdanovich who was injured during the Knicks opening round win over Philadelphia and is ruled out for the season. Not to mention Jalen Brunson missing the entire 2nd quarter in Wednesday’s win while receiving treatment for n injured food and NBA all-star Julius Randle was lost for the year during their last month of regular season action.

Any NBA Playoffs Game 3 home favorite -4.0 to -9.5 that’s coming off away SU&ATS underdog losses in the first 2 games of the series, and they allowed 112 points or more in their previous game, resulted in those Game 3 home favorites going 10-0 SU and 8-1-1 ATS since 2003. Give me Indiana minus points.

Pacers @ Knicks 8:00 PM ET

Game# 561-562

Play On: Knicks -4.5

The Knicks are coming off a 121-117 home win in Game 1. New York is 4-0 SU&ATS as a home favorite this season following a win in which they scored 120 or more and their average victory margin came by 18.2 points per game.

Since 2021, any NBA Playoffs Game 2 home favorite of between 3.5 to 9.5and scored 115 points or more in Game 1, resulted in those Game 2 home favorites going 15-0 SU and 13-2 ATS. The home favorites outscored their opponents by an average of 16.1 points per game. Give me the Knicks minus points.

Mavericks @ Thunder 9:30 PM ET

Game# 557-558

Play On: Thunder -3.5

Oklahoma City has been great at home all season. Specifically speaking, OKC has gone 34-5 SU and 26-13 ATS in their last 39 at home. That includes 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 at home. The Thunder won both regular season home games versus Dallas this season by scores of 126-119 and 135-86. The Thunder have been terric defensively of late while allowing 92 points or fewer in their last 5 and 6 of their previous 7 games.

Any NBA Favorite of 6.0 or less that’s coming off an away win and they allowed 99 points or fewer in each of their previous 2 contests, versus an opponent who won by 10 or more in their previous outing, resulted in those home favorites going 16-3 ATS since the 2015-2016 season began. That also includes 8-0 ATS since the 2018-2019 season with an average victory margin coming by 13.2 points per game. Give me the Thunder minus points.

Cavaliers @ Celtics 7:00 PM ET

Game# 559-560

Play On: Celtics -11.5

Cleveland is coming off a opening series 7-game win over Orlando. However, they went 0-3 SU&ATS on the road in that series and was outscored by an alarmingly high 26.0 points per game. Furthermore, the Cavaliers have now gone 0-9 SU and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 as an away underdog and were outscored by an average of 21.0 points per game. Additionally, Cleveland is 0-5 SU&ATS in their last 5 as an away underdog of 4.5 or greater and lost by an average of 17.8 points per game. The Cavaliers struggled offensively in the Orlando series while scoring 97 points or fewer in 6 of the 7 games, and that includes 96 or less in all 3 played on the road. That’s not good news for Cleveland backers when considering Boston allowed 94 points or fewer in 4 of their 5 games during their series win over Miami.

Any NBA Playoffs home favorite of -7.5 or more that’s playing in the opening game of round 2, and they’re facing an opponent off a Game 7 home win, resulted in those home favorites going 5-0 ATS. Those 5 home favorites outscored their opponents by an enormous average of 27.0 points per game. Give me the Celtics minus points.

Timberwolves @ Nuggets 10:00 PM ET

Game# 553-554

Play On: Nuggets -5.5

Denver is coming off a 106-99 home favorite loss in Game 1. The Nuggets are 7-1 SU&ATS this season following a home loss and outscored their opponents by an average of 13.8 points per game. Furthermore, the Nuggets are 3-0 SU&ATS this season as a home favorite of 4.0 or greater following a game in which they scored 99 or fewer and won by an enormous average of 22.4 points per game.

Since the 2019 NBA Playoffs, any Game 2 home favorite of between 3.0 to 9.5 that’s coming off a Game 1 home favorite SU loss by 9 points or fewer has gone 9-0 SU&ATS. The average line in those 9 contests was 7.2 and the home favorites won by 21.8 points per game. Give me the Denver Nuggets minus points.

Magic @ Cavaliers 1:00 PM ET

Game# 545-546

Play On: Magic +3.5

The home teams are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in this series. So, Cleveland must be a lock on Sunday as a home favorite, right? Hold your horses, the data shows otherwise albeit being a very small sample size.

Cleveland is coming off Friday’s 103-96 loss at Orlando that forced a Game 7. Since the 2007 NBA Playoffs, Game 7 home favorites of 4.0 or less that are coming off a Game 6 loss in which they scored less than 100 points have gone 0-5 SU&ATS and were outscored by an average of 5.2 points per game. Additionally, since the 2003 NBA Playoffs, Game 7 conference of 4.5 or less in a series that saw the home teams win each of the first 6 in the series, resulted in those Game 7 home favorites going 0-3 SU&ATS and they were outscored by 7.0 points per game. Give me Orlando plus points.

Clippers @ Mavericks 9:30 PM ET

Game# 527-528

Play On: Clippers +8.0

The Clippers roster has the most playoff experience of any team that was part of the 16-team postseason field. They’re coming off an embarrassing 30-point home loss and are now facing elimination on the road versus a Dallas team which has played extremely well over the past 2 months. However. the Clippers have gone 27-10 SU in their last 37 on the road which includes a Game 4 win at Dallas. Loss Angeles has also gone 9-1 SU in their last 10 away following a loss. The great equalizer for an NBA underdog is their ability to make 3-point shots at a high percentage. Throughout the first 5 games of this series the Clippers have made an impressive 39.6% of their 3-point shot attempts. Los Angeles has eld Dallas to just 105.6 points scored per game during this series which is 11.5 points below their season average.

The last 2 games of this series have gone over the total. Dallas is 1-8-1 ATS as a home favorite of 4.0 or great since the start of last season following back-to-back overs. That includes 0-5 ATS is they were favorite between 4.0 to 8.5-points and they lost 2 of those contests straight up.

Any NBA Playoffs Game 6 away underdog of between 5.5 to 9.5 that’s down 3-2 in the series and they’re coming off a home loss, resulted in those away underdogs going 4-0 SU&ATS since the 2016 postseason. The away underdogs not only covered those 4 contests but also won all 4 SU and by 9.4 points per game. Give me the Clippers plus points.

Cavaliers @ Magic 7:00 PM ET

Game# 523-524

Play On: Magic -3.5

Cleveland narrowly escaped with a 1-point home win in Game 5 to take a 3-2 series lead. However, they’re headed back to Orlando and the Cavaliers are 0-6 SU&ATS this season as a conference away underdog of 4.0 or less while being outscored by a substantial 20.4 points per game. They’re also 0-8 SU and 1-7 in their last 8 as an away underdog against all NBA teams with a terrible -22.7 point per game differential. During their 4 games at Orlando this season, Cleveland scored 94 points or fewer on 3 occasions.

Orlando has gone an incredible 18-2 SU and 17-3 ATS as a conference home favorite this season. That includes a perfect 12-0 SU&ATS during their last 12 in that specific role while outscoring opponents by 21.6 points per game. Throughout the last 3 games in this series the Magic have dominated the glass with a +12.3 rebound per game advantage. Give me the Magic minus points.

Bucks @ Pacers 6:30 PM ET

Game# 513-514

Play On: Indiana -7.5

There will be a definite overreaction by public bettors to side with Milwaukee as a sizable underdog after witnessing the Bucks 113-92 home win on Tuesday which kept their season alive. However, the series shifts back to Indiana for Game 6 where the Bucks are 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS this season.

Indiana was held to less than 100 points scored for only a 3rd time this season on Tuesday. Indiana is 2-0 SU&ATS this season following a game in which they were held to 99 points or fewer and won by an average of 18.0 points per contest. The Pacers have been extremely resilient over the last 8 weeks. That’s proven by them going 9-0 SU&ATS in their last 9 following a loss in their previous contest. They won those 9 contests by a decisive average of 20.0 points per game. Indiana has also gone a perfect 8-0 SU&ATS this season as a home favorite of 3.0 or greater after losing their previous contest and with an average victory margin of 25.0 points per contest.

Since the 2003 NBA Playoffs, Game 6 NBA home favorites of 4.5 or more that are coming off an away loss by 10.0 or more in which they scored 99 points or fewer, resulted in those home favorites going 11-1 SU&ATS. Additionally, if they were a favorite of 6.0 or greater they improved to 5-0 SU&ATS with an average line of -7.2 and victory margin of 18.0 points per game. Give me the Indiana Pacers minus points.

Mavericks @ Clippers 10:00 PM ET

Game# 505-506

Play On: Mavericks -2.5

The Mavericks are coming off a 116-11 Game 4 home favorite upset loss to the Clippers. The Clippers are 0-5 SU&ATS this season as an underdog of 6.5 or less following an away win and lost by an average of 13.0 points per game. They've also gone a dismal 1-5 SU&ATS this season following a SU underdog win in their previous game.

 Dallas has gone an extremely profitable 20-6 ATS this season as a road favorite, and it improves to 3-0 SU&ATS following a home loss with an average victory margin of 10.0 points per game. The Mavericks are 4-0 SU&ATS this season as a favorite following a SU favorite loss in their previous game.

This is a very rare NBA postseason betting situation that favors the road favorite in a very small sample size. Nonetheless, any NBA Playoffs away favorite in a Game 5 with the series tied 2-2 that's coming off a home loss has gone 3-0 SU&ATS since 2004. Those 3 road favorites won by an average of 11.4 points per game. Give me the Mavericks minus points.

Pacers @ Bucks 9:30 PM ET

Game# 567-568

Play On: Bucks +4.5

I may be in the minority, but I don’t see Milwaukee being eliminated at home tonight without the very least making it a competitive game that goes down to the wire. After the Bucks won the opening game of this series they lost 3 straight and find themselves on the brink of elimination. Even with their 2 stars not in the lineup tonight I look for this proud roster to play with a ton of urgency and desperation while also drawing from the energy of their loyal fans at home. Since the 2004 NBA Playoffs, Game 5 home teams down 3-1 in a series after losing each of the previous 3, resulted in those Game 5 home teams going 11-2 SU (84.6%). If those home teams were an underdog, then they went 2-0 SU&ATS with an average victory margin of 6.5 points per contest. Give me the Bucks plus points.

Magic @ Cavaliers 8:00 PM ET

Game# 569-570

Play On: Magic +5.0

Yes, I realize the home teams in this series are 4-0 SU&ATS with an average victory margin of 21.7 points per game. But what I’ve seen from Cleveland thus far is extremely concerning. The Cavaliers have been held to 97 points or fewer in all 4 games. They lost the last 2 in this series by 38 and 23 points while scoring just 86.0 per contest. On the other hand, the younf Orlando Magic team gained a ton of confidence offensively in their Games 3 and 4 home wins by averaging 116.5 points scored per game and shooting a combined 53.3% from the field. Orlando is 11-4 SU this season immediately following 2 consecutive games in which they shot 50% or better and outscored those 15 opponents by an average of 5.2 points per contest. The teams will be playing on 2 days rest tonight. Orlando is 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 when playing on 2 days rest and with an average victory margin of 22.7 points per game. Conversely, Cleveland is 0-3 ATS and just 1-2 SU this season as a favorite of 3.0 or greater when playing with 2 days rest and they were outscored by 2.7 points per contest.

Clippers @ Mavericks 8:00 PM ET

Game# 535-536

Play On: Mavericks -4.0

My professional opinion, Dallas has been the most improved defensive team in the NBA over the last quarter of the season. Specifically speaking, the Mavericks have allowed 107 points or fewer in 14 of their last 17 games. Dallas is coming off a 96-93 road win over the Clippers in Game 2 to even the series at 1-1. The Mavericks are a perfect 6-0 SU&ATS this season as a favorite of -10.0 or less and immediately following a game in which they allowed 100 points or less. They won those 6 contests by an average of 11.9 points per game. The Mavericks are also 3-0 SU&ATS this season as a home favorite after scoring 99 or less in their previous contest and won by an average of 20.0 points per game. The Clippers have been a very good road team this season but not as an underdog where they’re 4-10 SU and 5-9 ATS. Give me the Mavericks minus points.

Pelicans @ Thunder 9:30 PM ET

Game# 519-520

Play On: Thunder -7.5

I know how good New Orleans has been on the road this season. However, this will be their second straight home game without star power forward Zion Williamson (hamstring) and I firmly believe his absence will be sorely misses tonight.

The Thunder won the opening game of this series and was held to less than 100 points scored for only a 4th time this season. OKC is 3-0 SU&ATS this season immediately following a game in which they scored less than 100 and there was an average victory margin of 11.7 points per contest. We must also keep in mind; this is still an extremely young OKC team despite them being the #1 seed in the Western Conference. Their nervousness in Game 1 was very apparent while they made uncharacteristic careless errors and also shot poorly. They’ll be significantly better in Game 2. Especially so on their home court where they’ve gone 34-8 SU and 27-15 ATS this season with a huge point per game differential of +12.7. Furthermore, OKC is 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS this season as a favorite of between 6.0 and 13.0 immediately following a contest in which they allowed less than 100 points, and they outscored their opponents by an average of 16.5 points per game. Give me the Thunder minus points.

Pacers @ Bucks 8:30 PM ET

Game# 511-512

Play On: Indiana +1.5

The Pacers are coming off a 109-94 loss at Milwaukee in Game 1. However, Indiana is 8-0 SU&ATS in their last 8 following a loss with a substantial average victory margin of 20.4 points per game. Indiana is also 7-0 SU&ATS in their last 7 after scoring 112 or less in their previous contest and won by 16.4 points per game. The Pacers are 4-0 SU&ATS this season on the road when the line is between +6.0 to -6.0 and after a loss by 10 points or more with an average winning margin of 12.8 points per game. Give me the Pacers.

Lakers @ Nuggets 10:00 PM ET

Game# 505-506

Play On: Nuggets -7.0

The Denver Nuggets unequivocally have the Lakers number in recent meetings. Denver is 6-0 SU&ATS in their last 6 versus Los Angeles. As a matter of fact, dating back to last season, Denver is 9-0 SU in their last 9 overall versus the Lakers. Additionally, Denver is 78-16 SU at home since the start of last season. It’s also worth noting, the Nuggets are 11-1 SU and 7-4 ATS in their last 11 home playoff games.

Denver won Game 1 on Saturday 114-103 and covered as a 7.0-point home favorite. Since the 2021 NBA Playoffs, Game 2 home favorites of between 5.0 or greater that are coming off a home favorite of 5.0 or greater ATS cover have gone a perfect 8-0 SU&ATS with an average victory margin of 14.0 points per game. Give me Denver minus points.

76ers @ Knicks 7:30 PM ET

Game# 503-504

Play On: Knicks -5.0

The Knicks took Game 1 of this series 111-104 on Saturday and covered as a 3.0-point home favorite. They won despite only shooting 39.6% and that included a poor 8-26 (30.8%) shooting performance from their star point guard Jalen Brunson. The Knicks have now gone 4-1 SU&ATS versus Philadelphia this season and held them to a mere 90.0 points per game and outrebounded them by 12.6 per contest. Another reason for their win and cover in Game 1 was 23 offensive rebounds and being +22 on the glass. The Knicks are riding a current 6-game win streak in which they averaged 118.3 points scored per game. New York has also gone 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 as a home favorite of 7.5 or less and won by an average of 14.3 points per game.

Since the 2021 NBA Playoffs, Game 2 home favorites of between 3.5 to 9.5 have gone 24-5 ATS (82.8%). The average line in those 29 contests was 6.3 and the home favorites outscored their opponents by an average of 15.4 points per game. So much for the NBA Playoffs zig-zag theory. Give me the Knicks minus points.

Pelicans @ Thunder 9:30 PM ET

Game# 586-586

Play On: Pelicans +8.5

New Orleans star Zion Williamson will be out for 3 weeks after sustaining a hamstring injury in a Play-In Tournament home loss to the Lakers this past Tuesday. However, the Pelicans are 8-5 in their 13 games this season that Williamson was out and that includes 6-2 on the road. It’s worth noting that the Pelicans are an outstanding 28-14 on the road this season. Better yet, New Orleans has won their last 6, 10 of their previous 11, and 16 of the past 19 on the road. Oklahoma City has a terrific 33-8 home record. Nevertheless, they sustained 1 of those 8 losses to New Orleans and that was the Pelicans only game at OKC this season. 

Lakers @ Nuggets 8:30 PM ET

Game# 575-576

Play On: Nuggets -7.0

Denver is 3-0 SU&ATS versus the Lakers this season and won by 10.0 points per game. The Nuggets have gone an outstanding 33-8 at home this season and with a sizable +9.8 points per game differential. The Nuggets have average 123.8 points scored per game, shot 53.2% from the field, and made an excellent 41.7% of their 3-point shot attempts over the previous 5 contests. On the other hand, the Lakers have allowed 119.0 points per game while letting opponents shoot 48.1% from the field and an alarmingly high44.1% from 3-point range throughout their previous 5 contests.

Since the 2013 NBA Playoffs, Western Conference #2 seeds that are favorite by 7.0 or more and it the opening game of Round 1 have gone 5-0 SU&ATS with an average victory margin of 21.6 points per game. Give me the Nuggets minue points.

76ers @ Knicks 6:00 PM ET

Game#571-572

Play On: Knicks -3.0

The Knicks were 3-1 SU&ATS versus Philadelphia this season and held them to 96 points or fewer on each occasion. The 76ers scored a mere 86.5 points per game and shot a miserable 40.3% during those 4 meetings. Philadelphia narrowly escaped with a 105-104 home win over Miami in the Play-In Tournament to capture the #7 seed. New York finished the regular season on a 5-game win streak in which they scored 119.8 points per contest, shot 50.0% from the field, and a terrific 43.6% from 3-point territory. The 76ers are on an 8-game win streak but 5 of those win came versus teams with a losing record. The 76ers have shot the ball poorly in each of their previous 2 contest going 77-182 (42.3%) from the field. Philadelphia is a dismal 1-5 SU&ATS as an away underdog this season and on a 2-game win streak. Conversely, the Knicks are 6-0 SU&ATS this season as a favorite of between 2.5 to 4.5-points with an average margin of victory coming by 12.8 points per game. Give me the Knicks minus points.

Suns @ Timberwolves 3:30 PM ET

Game# 577-578

Play On: Suns +1.5

The Suns finished 7.0 games behind Minnesota in the regular season standings and are the lower seeded team. Yet, they’re the favorite in this series and only a short underdog in Game 1 versus a Timberwolves that went 30-11 at home during regular season action. If it looks to good to be true when it comes to sports betting, more times than not it is.

Phoenix enters the playoffs having won 7 of their last 9 which includes going 4-0 SU&ATS on the road with an average margin of victory coming by 12.3 points per game. The Suns are 3-0 SU&ATS versus Minnesota this season while winning by 15.7 points per game. Give me the Suns plus points.

Hawks @ Bulls 9:30 PM ET

Game# 549-550

Play On: Bulls -3.0

The Atlanta Hawks are a textbook example of why some question the validity of the Play-In Tournament. The Hawks enter this contest on a 6-game losing streak, failed to cover on 5 of those occasions, and finished with a 36-46 regular season record. The Hawks are coming off Sunday’s regular season finale in which they were embarrassed in 157-115 loss at Indiana. Atlanta is 0-7 SU&ATS their last 7 this season after a loss by 15 points or more and were outscored by an average of 10.7 points per game. During their previous 5 games Atlanta has allowed their opponents to shoot an alarmingly high 54.8% from the field.

Chicago finished the regular season by winning 2 of their last 3 games. However, I was more impressed in their loss at Madison Square Garden in their regular season finale than the 2 wins over Lowly Washington and Detroit. During that contest, the Bulls lost to the Knicks 120-119 in overtime as a 13.0-points dog. Furthermore, the Bulls were already locked into the #9 seed and really had nothing to play for. Conversely, the Knicks needed to win to attain the Eastern Conference #2 seed. Chicago played with playoff intensity and now being at home against a more inferior opponent than New York it will serve them well. Give me the Bulls minus the points.

Hawks @ Pacers 1:10 PM ET

Game# 513-514

Play On: Pacers -13.0

The Hawks really have nothing to play for. They’re locked into the Eastern Conference #10 seed and will face Chicago on the road in a Play-In Tournament win or go home game. Indiana has plenty to play for. They need a win or a loss by Philadelphia or Orlando to avoid the Play-In Tournament. Furthermore, Indiana is coming off Friday night’s loss at Cleveland. The Pacers have gone a perfect 7-0 SU&ATS in their last 7 following a loss and with an average victory margin of 17.2 points per game. During those 7 games, they held their opponents to 105.4 points per game, 44.8% shooting, and a paltry 27.6% from 3-point territory. Conversely, Atlanta is 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in their last 5. Indiana has gone 3-0 SU&ATS versus Atlanta this season, shot 60.6% or better in all those contests, and that includes 48.4% or better on their 3 point shot attempts on each occasion. Give me the Pacers minus points.

Pelicans @ Kings 10:00 PM ET

Game# 551-552

Play On: Pelicans +1.5

The New Orleans Pelicans have dominated Sacramento this season while going 4-0 SU&ATS in their head-to-head meeting and with an enormous average victory margin of 21.3 points per game. The Pelicans have been better on the road than at home this season. New Orleans is currently 26-14 (.650) on the road and 21-18 (.538) on their home floor. The Kings enter tonight’s game having lost 3 of their last 4 and 5 of the previous 8 contests. Although Sacramento is averaging 116.5 points scored per game this season, they’ve recently struggled in that category of late. The Kings have scored 109 points or fewer in 10 of their last 11 games. Sacramento has gone a mediocre 7-6 SU in their last 13 at home. Give me the Pelicans.

Magic @ Rockets 8:10 PM ET

Game# 517-518

Play On: Magic -2.5

After going on an 11-game win streak which catulpated them into playoff contention, Houston preceded to go 0-5 SU&ATS in their last 5 contests while being outscored by an average of 14.8 points per game. During this current 5-game losing streak they’ve allowed opponents to score 127.4 points per contest, shoot 53.3% from the field, and 43.7% of their 3-point shot attempts.

Orlando has gone an extremely profitable 26-9 ATS as a favorite this season. The Magic have won 4 of their last 5 overall and they allowed 106 points or fewer in 10 of their previous 13 games. Give me the Magic minus points. Give me the Magic minus points.

Pelicans @ Suns 6:10 ET

Game# 571-572

Play On: Suns -6.0

These are 2 playoff bound teams but are currently headed down opposite paths. New Orleans has gone 0-4 SU&ATS in their last 4 while losing by 9.0 points per game and all those occurred at home. The Suns are 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 at home with an average victory margin of 14.3 points per game. The Suns are 2-0 SU&ATS versus the Pelicans this season with both coming on the road by 13 and 14 points. Phoenix is coming off a 97-87 home win over Minnesota. The Suns are 3-0 SU&ATS this season immediately following a game in which they scored less than 100 points and won by an average of 17.7 points per contest. Give me the Suns minus points.

Mavericks @ Rockets 7:10 PM ET

Game# 543-544

Play On: Rockets +2.5

Dallas is coming off a win at Sacramento and did so as a 1.5-point underdog.  The Mavericks are an abysmal 1-9 ATS this season following a SU underdog win and were outscored by an average of 8.9 points per contest. Houston enters today on a season high 11-game win streak. Their most recent win was 101-100 at Utah. The Rockets are a perfect 10-0 SU at home this season immediately following a contest in which they scored 105 points or fewer and they did so by 10.4 points per occurrence. Give me the Rockets plus points.

Warriors @ Heat 7:40 ET

Game# 535-536

Play On: Warriors -2.5

Miami has been a tad better on the road than at home this season. As a matter of fact, the Heat have lost 3 of their last 4 at home. Conversely, Golden State has gone 11-4 SU in their last 15 on the road. The Warriors are coming off losses in each of their previous 2. However, Golden State has gone 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 immediately following back-to-back losses and with an average victory margin of 11.0 points per game. The Warriors haven’t lost 3 straight games since 12/30/2023. Give me the Warriors minus points.

Spurs @ Rockets 8:10 PM ET

Game# 525-526

Play On: Rockets -7.5

Houston is 7-0 SU&ATS this season as a home favorite of between 3.5 to 9.5 and with an average victory margin of 178.6 points per game. San Antonio are coming off 2 consecutive wins for just the 4th time this season while defeating Oklahoma City 132-118 and Indiana 117-105. However, the Spurs are an abysmal 0-9 SU&ATS this season as an away underdog of between 3.5 to 9.5 and were outscored by a massive average of 23.0 points per game. San Antonio is 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS this season immediately following 2 wins in a row. Give me Houston minus points. Give me the Rockets minus points.

Clippers @ Timberwolves 3:40 PM ET

Game# 581-582

Play On: Clippers +1.5

Minnesota started the season by going 22-2 SU in their first 24 at home. Nevertheless, sinced then they’re only 5-5 SU on their home floor. The Clippers are 30-10 SU in their last 40 games and that includes 17-6 SU on the road. Los Angeles is coming off home games in each of their previous 3 outings. The Clippers are a perfect 7-0 SU&ATS this season immediately following playing their previous 3 on the road and won by an average of 15.9 points per game. Give me the Clippers plus points.

Warriors @ Celtics 3:40 PM ET

Game# 583-584

Play On: Celtics -10.5

The oddsmakers are begging you to take the red-hot Golden State Warriors as an 11.0-point underdog. After all, the Warriors have gone 8-0 SU&ATS in their last 8 on the road. However, please keep in mind that their star point guard Stephen Curry is listed as questionable as he’s nursing bursitis in his right knee.

Boston has won 10 in a row and covered each of their previous 5. During that 5-0 SU&ATS stretch, Boston outscored their opponents by an enormous 25.4 points per game. Boston has shot 50% or better in each of their last 9 and 12 of its previous 15 games. Give me the Celtics minus points.

Mavericks @ Celtics 7:40 PM ET

Game# 555-556

Play On: Celtics -9.5

This line has moved from 7.5 to 9.5 due to the availability status of star point guard Luka Doncic who has both a sprained ankle and broken nose. Considering this will be the Mavs 3rd road game in 4 days and the finale of a 4-game in 6-day road trip, I would be surprised if Dallas doesn’t air on the side of caution and opt not to play Doncic. Conversely, Boston will be playing on 2 days rest, and this will be only their 2nd game in 6 days. The Celtics enter today riding an 8-game win streak. That includes covering each of their previous 4 while winning by a substantial margin of 24.7 points per game. During this current win streak, Boston has shot 51.8% or better on each occasion and also allowed 105 points or fewer on 5 of those occasions. They’ll be facing a Dallas team that allows 117.6 points per game and opponents have shot 48.2% against them this season. Boston is 27-3 SU at home this season while outscoring opponents by an average of 13.8 points per game. Saying they’ve been dominant on their own floor would be the vastest of understatements. Give me the Celtics minus points.

Lakers @ Clippers 10:10 PM ET

Game# 533-534

Play On: Lakers +3.5

The Lakers are coming off a 123-113 loss at Phoenix. However, they’ve gone 3-0 SU in their last 3 following a loss and with an average victory margin of 10.3 points per game, and 2 of those wins came as an underdog. The Clippers are an uninspiring 3-4 and money-draining 1-6 ATS over their previous 7 games. That includes 2-3 SU and 0-5 ATS as a favorite. Give me the Lakers plus points.

Mavericks @ Raptors 7:40 PM ET

Game# 527-528

Play On: Raptors +3.5

Dallas will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days and is coming off last night’s disheartening 121-119 loss at Cleveland. I described that as disheartening because the Cavaliers his a 59-foot 3-point shot at the buzzer to steal that win. That usually will take an emotional toll on a team after sustaining such a brutal loss and I strongly believe that will be the case in this matchup. Toronto will be playing only their 2nd game in 5 days and has a decided advantage regarding rest. Toronto also enters tonight having gone 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 games. Give me Toronto plus points.

Trailblazers @ Heat 10:10 PM ET

Game# 571-572

Play On: Heat -7.0

Portland is coming off a 93-80 home loss to Charlotte. The Trailblazers have gone an abysmal 0-7 SU&ATS this season as an underdog of 13.5 or less and after game in which they scored 95 points or fewer. The lost those 7 contests by an enormous margin of 26.6 points per game. Portland is also 0-6 SU&ATS in their last 6 contests and lost by an average of 14.0 points per game.

Miami is coming off last night’s win at Sacramento. The Heat are 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 with all coming as a road underdog. Additionally, the heat have gone 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 as a favorite and won by 13.7 points per game. I have little concern about Miami playing with no rest this evening since they’re recently coming off the all-star break. Give me the Heat minus points.

Bucks @ Timberwolves 10:10 PM ET

Game# 535-536

Play On: Bucks +4.5

This line makes little sense to me with Minnesota being just a short home favorite against a struggling Bucks team. Especially when considering, Minnesota walloped the Bucks 129-105 at Milwaukee just 2 weeks ago. When these types of situations occur, I am apt to having a contrarian mind set. Milwaukee is coming off back-to-back losses. However, the Bucks are 5-1 SU this season following losses in each of their previous 2 games. Minnesota is 4-0 SU&ATS in their previous 4 games played. The Timberwolves started the season 17-2 SU in their first 19 at home but have gone just 2-3 since.

Milwaukee is coming off a disheartening loss to Memphis in their previous game as a massive 12.0-point home favorite. This will be just the 3rd game in the last 11 days for Milwaukee. Any NBA team that’s coming off a double-digit favorite SU loss and is playing in their 3rd game or less over the previous 10 days, has seen those teams go 28-6 SU (82.4%) since the start of the 1996-1997 season. The SU betting angle is significant since it backs the underdog in this specific matchup. Give me the Bucks plus points.

Heat @ Pelicans 10:10 PM ET

Game# 539-540

Play On: Pelicans-3.5

New Orleans is 6-0 SU&ATS this season as a non-conference home favorite of between 2.5 to 13.0 and won by a convincing average margin of 18.9 points per game. The Pelicans are coming off last night’s 127-105 blowout win over Houston. They’ve now won 4 in a row and 8 of their last 9. They’ve also won their previous 3 at home by a decisive margin of 22.3 points per game.

Miami returns from the all-star break coming off road wins at Milwaukee and Philadelphia with both coming as an underdog. Those wins improved Miami’s season record to 30-25 (.545). Any NBA team like the Pelicans that is facing an opponent coming off back-to-back SU wins as an underdog, and that opponent has a win percentage of between .510 to .600, resulted in those teams like New Orleans going 63-26 ATS (70.8%) since the 19969-1997 season began. Give me the Pelicans minus points.

Thunder @ Magic 7:30 PM ET

Game# 501-502

Play On: Orlando +3.0

Orlando is 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 at home with an average margin of victory of 12.3 points per game. Orlando will be playing on 2 days rest and each of their previous 2 were at home. Since the start of last season, Orlando is 7-1 SU at home after playing each of their previous 2 at home, and they outscored their opponents in those 8 contests by 10.4 points per game. Conversely, Oklahoma City is 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 on the road and all came as a favorite while they were outscored by 19.7 points per contest. Give me the Magic plus points.

Bucks @ Suns 10:10 PM ET

Game# 583-584

Play On: Suns -3.5

Despite the head coaching change for the Bucks, something still feels off with them. Milwaukee is 0-3 ATS in their last 3 as an underdog and lost by an enormous 20.3 points per game. As a matter of fact, since the start of last season, the Bucks are an abysmal 4-15 ATS as an underdog of 6.0 or less and were outscored by an average of 12.0 points per game. The Suns are coming off a successful 4-3 road trip and they’re now 11-3 over their previous 14 contests. The Suns have shot 49% or better in 14 consecutive games in addition to 18 of their previous 20 contests. During their previous 4 the Bucks are allowing 118.0 points per game and permitted their opponents to shoot a combined 49.9%. Give me the Suns minus points.

Thunder @ Jazz 9:10 PM ET

Game# 581-582

Play On: Thunder -3.0

Oklahoma City has gone a profitable 4-1 SU&ATS in their last 5 on the road. The Thunder are 2-0 SU&ATS versus Utah this season while averaging 134.0 points scored per contest and shot 53.5% from the field. Utah is 3-6 in their last 9 and allowed 124.4 points scored per game while opponents shot 49.3% and make 41.3% of their 3-point shot attempts. The Thunder has shot 49.6% throughout their previous 5 while making 39.9% of their 3-point shot attempts. Give me the Thunder minus points.

Magic @ Heat 7:40 PM ET

Game# 577-578

Play On: Magic +3.5

Orlando has gone 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS during their previous 5 outings. Conversely, Miami is 2-8 SU&ATS over their previous 10 and that includes 1-5 SU&ATS during their last 6 at home. Give me the Magic plus points.

Warriors @ Nets 7:40 PM ET

Game# 565-566

Play On: Nets +1.5

This is an attractive spot for the home team in this matchup as I see and diagnose it. This will be the Warriors 3rd road game in 4-days and they wasted a 62-point epic performance at Atlanta on Saturday while falling to the Hawks 141-131. Golden State is now 6-11 SU in their last 17 overall and 3-9 SU during their previous 12 road games. Since the start of last season, the Warriors are a dismal 5-18 SU on the road immediately following a road loss.

Contrary to their opponent tonight, Brooklyn is a well-rested team that will be playing just their 3rd game in 7 days. Additionally, Brooklyn isn’t road weary considering 5 of their last 6 have been played at home. The Nets have won 3 of their last 4. During their previous 3 outings Brooklyn has scored 134.3 points per game and shot a red-hot 51.0%. Brooklyn has also made a stellar 39.1% of their 3-point shot attempts over their previous 5 games. All that is good news for Nets backers when considering Golden State has allowed 125.6 points per game over their last 5 while opponents knocked down 37.1% of their 3-point shots against them. Give me the Nets on the money line.

Magic @ Pistons 3:10 PM ET

Game# 541-542

Play On: Pistons +7.0

Orlando will be playing in their 4th of a 5-game 9-day road trip. They’re coming off a 108-106 win at Minnesota who’s arguably the best team in the Western Conference. Up next is the finale of their road trip at division rival Miami on Tuesday. Sandwiched in between is the lowly Detroit Pistons who have an atrocious 6-42 season record. However, Detroit has gone 8-0 ATS in their last 8 as an underdog and won 2 of those games outright. The Pistons are coming off a 1369-125 home loss to the red-hot Los Angeles Clippers but still managed to cover as a 12.0-point underdog. Detroit is a perfect 5-0 ATS this season as an underdog after allowing 135 points or more in their previous game. Give me the Pistons plus points.

Suns @ Nets 8:40 PM ET

Game# 581-582

Play On: Nets +3.6

The Suns are unequivocally the better team in this matchup. However, I like the home underdog betting value in this specific spot. Phoenix will be playing their 5th of a 7-game 12-day road tripp that has saw them go 2-2 thus far. The Nets will be playing in their 3rd consecutive game at home, and they won the previous 2. The latest of which was a 147-114 thrashing of Uta on Monday night. Brooklyn has also gone a profitable 14-8 ATS (63.6%) at home this season. Give me the Nets plus points.

Kings @ Heat 7:40 PM ET

Game# 571-572

Play On: Kings +1.5

Miami has hit a brick wall recently while going 0-7 SU&ATS in their last 7 games and they were outscored in those outings by a substantial 16.3 points per outing. That includes 4 of those games taking pace at home. The Kings enter today on a 4-game win streak with the last 3 coming on the road. Sacramento has averaged a robust 120.6 points scored per game over their previous 10 contests and shot 50% or better 8 times. On the other hand, Miami has allowed 128.7 points per game and opponents have shot 54% over their previous 3 contests. The Heat have also averaged just a mere 101.1 points scored per game over their previous 10 contests. Give me the Kings plus points.

Clippers @ Celtics 7:10 PM ET

Game# 511-512

Play On: Celtics -7.5

The Clippers are coming off an impressive 127-107 road win over Toronto last night. The Clippers are 0-3 SU&ATS on the road this season when playing with no rest and they were an underdog on each occasion. Conversely, Boston is -0 SU this season when playing at home versus an opponent playing with no rest and with an average victory margin of 14.4 points per game. The Celtics are coming off a dominating performance during a 143-110 win at Miami on Thursday. Boston is 4-0 SU at home this season following a road win and outscored their opponents by a decisive 21.0 points per game. Furthermore, we need to think like an oddsmaker in this matchup. We have a Clippers team that’s been red-hot while going 12-2 SU and 11-3 ATS over their previous 15 contests. That includes a current 4-0 SU&ATS run in their last 4 with an average victory margin of 13.3 points per contest. Yet, here they are as a 7.5-point underdog. They’re giving us the winner. Give me Boston minus points.

Cavaliers @ Bucks 8:10 PM ET

Game# 569-570

Play On: Cavaliers +6.0

The Cavaliers will be looking to atone for a 126-116 loss at Milwaukee on Wednesday that snapped their red-hot 8-game win streak.  I love their chances of being able to do so and especially betting on them as a point-spread underdog in this spot. Cleveland has shot 50% or better in each of their previous 4 games. During their previous 3 meetings with Milwaukee this season, Cleveland averaged 120.3 points scored per game and shot a combined 52.2% from the field. Furthermore, the Bucks have allowed an average of 126.5 points per game throughout their previous 6 contests. Milwaukee has also allowed opponents to shoot 50% or better in 5 of their last 7 games. Give me the Cavaliers plus the points.

Bulls @ Lakers 10:40 PM ET

Game# 555-556

Play On: Bulls +4.5

Since winning the NBA In-Season Tournament, the Lakers have gone a dismal 8-14 SU which includes an uninspiring 6-6 at home. The Bulls aree coming off a gut-wrenching 115-113 loss at Phoenix in which they blew a 23-point 2nd half lead but still managed to cover as a 5.0-point underdog.  Chicago is 3-0 SU in their last 3 and 7-1 during the previous 8 immediately following a loss. The Bulls are also 5-1 SU in their last 6 away games following a loss. Give me the Bulls plus the points.

Nuggets @ Knicks 7:40 PM ET

Game# 549-550

Play On: Knicks +2.5

The Knicks will be catching the Nuggets in the right time. Today will be Denver’s finale of a 5-game 10-day road trip. New York enters today riding a 4-game win streak and has also gone a red-hot 10-2 SU in their last 12. The Knicks defense has been superb over their previous 6 contests while allowing only 99.7 points per game. Additionally, the Knicks are 10-1 SU and 10-0-1 ATS at home this season when there’s a total of between 220.0 to 229.5 like it will be today. The Knicks are also 7-1 in their last 8 at home. This is an excellent betting value on the home underdog. Give me the Knicks plus points.

Jazz @ Pelicans 8:10 PM ET

Game# 521-522

Play On: Jazz +7.0

New Orleans has gone just 4-5 SU and 36-6 ATS in their last 9 at home. Despite Utah losing their last 2, they’re still 12-4 SU and 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games. That includes 7-1 ATS in their last 8 away games. Throughout their previous 5 contests Utah has averaged an impressive 132.8 points scored per game while shooting 49.9% and 38.9% from 3-point territory. During that same 5-game span they posted a +8 rebound per game differential and shot a blistering hot 84.4% from the free throw line with an alarmingly high average of 34 attempts per contest. Conversely, New Orleans has allowed 118.6 points per contest while permitting opponents to shoot 48.0% and make 39.9% of their 3-point shot attempts. Give me Utah plus the points.

Trailblazers @ Thunder 8:10 PM ET

Game# 523-524

Play On: Thunder -13.0

When it comes to NBA double-digit point-spreads I usually steer clear of handicapping those contests, and if I do it’s because I’m looking to take the underdog. However, this specific matchup is an exception. Portland is 0-5 SU&ATS in their last 5 as a road double-digit underdog and they were outscored by an enormous average of 33.2 points per game. On the other hand, we have an Oklahoma City team which has gone 6-0 SU&ATS in their last 6 at home with an average margin of victory coming by 21.0 points per game. Give me the Thunder minus points. Additionally, Oklahoma City will be playing on 2 days of rest. The Thunder are 5-0 SU&ATS this season as a home favorite when playing on 2 or more days rest and won by an average of 15.8 points per contest. Give me the Thunder minus points.

Bulls @ Suns 9:10 PM ET

Game# 513-514

Play On: Bulls +5.5

The Suns are coming off last night’s 117-110 home win iver Indiana which improved their current unbeaten streak to 5 games in a row. However, NBA teams which have won 5 or more in a row are playing with no rest are a poor 37-56 SU since the start of the 2019-2020 season. Furthermore, if those teams were playing at home they were just 13-21 SU and that includes 1-8 this season.

Chicago enters tonight having gone 6-2 SU in their last 8 games. Chicago is also a respectable 6-5 SU and 7-4 ATS in their previous 11 played on the road. Additionally, Chicago is 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 this season when playing on 1 or more days rest and when facing an opponent with no rest with a +8.3 point per game differential. Give me the Bulls plus points.

Hawks @ Heat 8:10 PM ET

Game# 539-540

Play On: Heat -6.5

Atlanta is coming off home wins in their last 2 games. Nonetheless, the Hawks are 0-4 SU&ATS in their last 4 after recording wins in their previous 2 contests and they lost by an average of 15.5 points per game. Atlanta has also gone 0-7 SU&ATS in their last 7 this season as an underdog of 3.0 or greater and they were outscored by 14.8 points per contest.

Miami is coming off an embarrassing 121-97 loss at Toronto in their previous outing and they allowed the Raptors to shoot 51.1%. The Heat is 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 following a game in which they allowed an opponent to shoot 50% or better. Furthermore, Miami han’t allowed opponents to shoot 50% or better in 2 straight for 21 consecutive games. Miami is 9-0 SU and 6-3 ATS versus fellow Southeast Division teams this season. The Heat are also 8-1 SU and 6-3 ATS in their last 9 following a loss. Give me the Heat minus points.

Kings @ Suns 9:10 PM ET

Game# 571-572

Play On: Kings +4.5

The Suns are a disappointing 21-18 this season and that includes an extremely uninspiring 11-11 at home. Phoenix will be facing an opponent tonight in the Sacramento Kings averaging 118.2 points scored per game. That’s a significant statistic since Phoenix has gone an abysmal 0-10 ATS this season when facing teams that average 116.0 or more points scored per game and were outscored by 10.8 points per contest. Phoenix is only forcing 12 turnovers per game this season. That’s also noteworthy since Sacramento is 9-1 ATS this season versus teams that force an average of 13 turnovers or less per game and they outscored those opponents by 6.0 points per contest. Lastly, dating back to last season, Sacramento is 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 versus Phoenix while outscoring them by an average of 10.0 points per game. Give me the Kings plus the points.

Pelicans @ Nuggets 10:10 PM ET

Game# 515-516

Play On: Nuggets -8.0

This line jumped right off the board at me. Granted the Nuggets are the defeding world champions. However, New Orleans has gone 7-0 SU&ATS in their last 7 road games. They’re begging to take the underdog in this spot but I’m not taking the bait and will go the opposite way. It must be noted, New Orleans has listed 4 of their top 5 scorers as questionable in this contest and those 4 players average a combined 77.2 points scored per game. Denver is coming off a disappointing 124-111 loss at Utah. Nevertheless, Denver is 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 immediately after a loss and they won by an average of 17.0 points per game. Give me Denver minus the points.

Celtics @ Bucks 7:40 PM ET

Game# 571-572

Play On: Celtics +4.5

The Bucks are an impressive 16-3 at home this season. However, they lost their last 2 in Milwaukee to Utah 132-116 and Indiana 122-113. As a matter of fact, the Bucks are 1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last 5 overall.

The Celtics find themselves as an underdog for just the 2nd time all season. Since the start of last season, Boston is 9-1 ATS and 6-4 SU as an underdog. All 4 of those SU losses came by 6 points or fewer and by a combined 15 points. Their lone time as an underdog this season, they were +3.0 at Sacramento and won 144-119. Give me the Celtics plus points.

Heat @ Warriors 10:10 PM ET

Game# 545-546

Play On: Warriors -3.5

This pick is more about positives for the Warriors than negatives applied to Miami. Golden State began this season by losing 6 of their first 7 at home. The Warriors have since rebounded to win 8 consecutive home games. Additionally, since the start of the 2021-2022 season, Golden State is 40-21 ATS at home when facing an opponent like Miami that possesses a winning record and with a respectable +8.0 per game point differential. Lastly, Golden State has averaged 123.8 points scored per game and shot a red-hot 49.9% over their previous 5 contests. Give me the Warriors minus points.

Pacers @ Bulls 8:10 PM ET

Game# 537-538

Play On: Bulls +1.5

These are teams that are headed down opposite paths right now. Indiana has gone 2-6 SU&ATS in their last 8 games with 1 of those wins coming over Detroit (2-28) who’s currently on a 27-game losing streak. The Pacers have allowed opponents to shoot 51% or better in 8 of their last 10 contests. Indiana is coming off a road win over Houston. However, the Pacers are 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 following a win. Conversely, Chicago is 9-4 SU and 11-2 ATS over their last 11 games. The Bulls are also 5-0 ATS and 4-1 SU in their previous 5 games as an underdog. Chicago comes off a 118-113 win over Atlanta in a game they closed as a 1.0-point home underdog. The Bulls are 9-2 SU since the start of last season following a game in which they won SU as a home underdog, and that includes 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 this season when cast into that identical role. Give me the Bulls.

Timberwolves @ Thunder 8:10 PM ET

Game# 505-506

Play On: Timberwolves +2.5

Oklahoma City averages just 23 free throw attempts per game this season and that’s a significant note as it applies to this matchup. Conversely, Minnesota has gone a perfect 17-0 SU this season versus opponents that average 24 or fewer free throw attempts per game and with an average victory margin of 13.6 points per contest. Another worthwhile fact as it applies to today’s game. The Timberwolves have made a red-hot 40.5% of their 3-point shot attempts over their previous 5 while the Thunder has allowed team to make 39.8% of their 3-point shot attempts throughout their previous 5 contests. Additionally, Minnesota enters today having gone 21-4 during their previous 5 games. Give me the Timberwolves plus points.

Lakers @ Bulls 8:10 PM ET

Game# 545-546

Play On: Bulls +4.5

The Lakers have dropped 3 of their last 4 and failed to cover on each occasion. Conversely, Chicago is 6-3 SU and 8-1 ATS during their previous 9 games. The Bulls have shot an impressive 39.5% from 3-point territory over their last 5 contests. That’s good news as it applies to this matchup considering the Lakers 3-points defense has left much to be desired over their last 5 while opponents have made 38.9% of those long-distance attempts against them. The great equalizer for an underdog is their ability to make 3-point shots at a high percentage. This will be a textbook example of such. Give me the Bulls plus points.

The Celtics are a perfect 14-0 at home this season. However, on the road they've gone just 6-5 SU and 2-7-2 ATS. As a matter of fact, Boston is 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 away games and was a favorite on each occasion. Golden State began the season by losing 6 of their first 7 at home. Since that time, they've captured 5 home wins in a row. Give me the Warriors plus points.

I used Boston on Friday night as a home favorite over Orlando and they easily won and covered. I'm coming right back with them today. The Celtics are 13-0 SU and 8-3-2 ATS at home this season while outscoring opponents by 15.5 points per game. The Celtics have shot 50% or better in 8 of their last 10 at home. Conversely, Orlando is 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 away and allowed opponents to score 121 points or more and shoot 50% or better on each occasion. Orlando is a terrific 11-1 at home this season but just 5-7 on the road. Give me the Celtics minus points.

Knicks @ Suns 10:10 PM ET

Game# 547-548

Play On: Suns -4.5

I faded the Suns on Wednesday against Brooklyn and cashed that winning ticket. Nonetheless, I am betting on them tonight and without the least bit of hesitancy. This will be just the 2nd time this season that Phoenix will have their terrific trio of Bradley Beal, Devin Booker, and Kevin Durant all available at the same time. I look for that to be a more telling factor than the debut in Wednesday’s home loss. Besides, the Knicks are 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 on the road and were outcored by an average of 12.7 points per game. New York’s defensive play has been horrible throughout their previous 5 contests as they allowed 126.4 points per game and opponents shot a combined 49.4% which includes 39.4% from 3-point territory. Give me the Suns minus points.

Magic @ Celtics 7:40 PM ET

Game# 541-542

Play On: Celtics -5.5

Despite Orlando beating Boston 4 consecutive times dating back to last season and being a vastly improved team this season with a current record of 16-7, they still find themselves as a sizable road underdog in this spot. I find this current point-spread to be justified and am not swayed by the Magic’s recent success versus Boston. Keeping Orlando’s fast start to this 2023-2024 campaign into perspective, they’ve done much of their damage at home where they’re 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS. On the road they’re a mediocre 5-6 SU. Conversely, Boston is 12-0 SU at home with a dominating average victory margin of 15.3 points per game. Give me the Celtics minus points.

Pacers @ Wizards 7:10 PM ET

Game# 535-536

Play On: Wizards +9.0

To be a successful sports bettor there are times it requires making an uncomfortable wager. This is a textbook example of such. The Wizards are a terrible team that comes into this Eastern Conference matchup with an abysmal 3-20 record. However, this sets up to be a favorable situation to get inside this sizable number as a home underdog. One thing that’s been respectable for Washington has been their play on the offensive side of the floor. The Wizards have averaged 115.2 points scored per game and shot 48.2% from the field this season. The major weakness of an otherwise impressive young Pacers team is their shoddy defensive play. That’s especially evident when Indiana is on the road where they’re allowing 132.6 points per game while allowing opponents to shoot a blistering 52.6% from the field. Furthermore, over their last 5 road games, Indiana has allowed 137.2 points per outing and all those opponents shot 53% or better from the field. Lastly, Indiana is coming off a 140-126 divisional loss at Milwaukee, and they’re 0-7 ATS following a divisional game this season. It’s also worth noting, they were outscored in those 7 contests by a substantial margin of 14.5 points per game. Give me the Wizards plus points.

Nets @ Suns 9:10 PM ET

Game# 517-518

Play On: Nets +2.5

The Suns are an uninspiring 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games.  Phoenix will be facing a Brooklyn team that has shot 47.3% from the field this season. The Suns are an atrocious 1-11 ATS and 3-9 SU this season when facing opponents with a season offensive field goal percentage of 46.0% or better. The Nets have been an extremely profitable 16-5-1 ATS this season which includes 6-3 ATS on the road. Additionally, Brooklyn is coming off Monday’s 131-118 at Sacramento and that is significant. The Nets are 8-1 ATS this season following a SU loss and with a +4.1 point per game differential. Lastly, since the beginning of last season, Brooklyn is 15-2 SU in December and Phoenix is 7-14 SU. Give me the Nets plus points.

Timberwolves @ Pelicans 8:10 PM ET

Game# 555-556

Play On: Pelicans -3.5

This is another fishy line with all being considered and even with star guard Anthony Edwards listed as questionable to play. Minnesota is coming off a 127-103 blowout win at Memphis which extended their win streak to 6-games and they’re also on a red-hot 16-2 winning run. Yet, they’re an underdog against a New Orleans team which is coming off an embarrassing 133-89 loss to the Lakers in the NBA In-Season Tournament Semifinal. However, New Orleans is 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 at home following a loss in their previous contest and won by a substantial margin of 22.3 points per game. Give me the Pelicans minus points.

Nuggets @ Hawks 7:40 PM ET

Game# 545-546

Play On: Hawks +2.5

Like many reigning NBA championship teams before them, the Denver Nuggets have a bullseye on their head. Teams have used that emotional advantage quite well when hosting the Nuggets this season. Denver is 9-1 SU at home but a below average 5-8 on the road. This current line showing Denver has a small favorite versus an Atlanta team which is 0-3 in their last 3 and 3-8 during their previous 11 games speaks loudly to me. I am listening. Give me the Hawks plus points.

Cavaliers @ Magic 7:10 PM ET

Game# 539-540

Play On: Cavaliers +1.5

This point-spread jumped right off the screen at me. We have an Orlando team which is 10-1 at home this season and outscoring those visiting opponents by a decisive margin of 14.5 points per game, and here they are as just a short favorite. Not to mention, Orlando is on a current 8-game home win streak. However, the Cavaliers are 7-3 on the road this season and that includes 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road tilts. These teams met last Wednesday in Cleveland and the Cavaliers walked away with a 121-111 win despite Orlando being awarded 37 free throw attempts. The Cavaliers are a much better defensive team than Orlando and they’ve allowed 105 points or fewer in 5 of their last 6 games. Give me the Cavaliers plus points.

Lakers vs. Pacers 8:30 PM ET

Game# 535-536

Play On: Lakers -4.0

The Lakers have gone 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 as a favorite and won by a decisive margin of 23.0 points per game. Los Angeles is also 8-1 ATS in their last 9 as a favorite of 2.0 or greater. The difference in this matchup is the Lakers are far superior on the defensive side of the floor than Indiana. The Pacers have allowed 111 points or more in every game this season. Conversely, the Lakers have allowed 110 points or fewer in 13 of their 23 games. As a matter of fact, the Pacers are allowing 124.9 points per game but have been able to get away with it on many occasions during a 12-8 start because they also average 128.4 points per contest. When it comes to big games in any sport my tendency is to lean toward the team that’s better defensively. This is a textbook example of such. For those unaware, this is the Finals of the NBA In-Season Tournament with the winning team awarded $500,000 being awarded to each player. Furthermore, the Lakers are the more experienced team and have players who have been in big games such as these much more than those of the Pacers. Give me the Lakers minus points.

Rockets @ Nuggets 9:10 PM ET

Game# 521-522

Play On: Nuggets -8.5

Considering the Rockets have shown to be a much-improved team in the early going of this season, this appears as a very heavy line which makes it alluring to take the underdog. Nonetheless, I just can’t ignore the home/away dichotomies in this matchup. Houton is an outstanding 9-1 SU at home but an abysmal 0-8 SU on the road. On the other hand, Denver is an uninspiring 5-8 SU on the road but an unbeaten 9-0 SU at home where they’ve outscored opponents by an average of 11.0 points per game. The Nuggets are coming off 2 losses in a row with both coming on the road versus the Kings and Clippers. However, the defending world champions haven’t lost 3 straight games all season and are 2-0 SU&ATS immediately following back-to-back losses. Give me the Nuggets minus points.

Warriors @ Thunder 8:10 PM ET

Game# 517-518

Play On: Warriors +3.0

These teams have already met 3 times this season and the visitors are unscathed 3-0 during those matchups. The Warriors are certainly off to a disappointing start to the season. Nevertheless, they’re a money-making 7-3 ATS on the road. The upstart Thunder are just 2-3 in their last 5 games. During that stretch, they’re allowing opponents to attempt 33 free throw attempts per games and make an alarmingly high 38% of their 3-point shot attempts. Conversely, throughout their last 5 contests Golden State is averaging 28 free throws per contest while making a stellar 81% of those attempts. During that identical 5-game span, the Warriors have made an impressive 39.6% of their 3-point shot attempts. During their first 3 meetings against Oklahoma City, Golden State averaged an extremely high 15.7 offensive rebounds per game which equates to a better than average amount of multiple offensive possessions. Give me the Warriors plus points.

Nuggets @ Kings 10:10 PM ET

Game# 551-552

Play On: Kings -4.5

The defending NBA champion Denver Nuggets have seeming got back into a groover of late after going into a short tailspin. The Nuggets are 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 and with an average victory margin of 9.7 points per game. Yet they find themselves as an underdog against a Kings team that’s coming off a 14-point home loss. Here’s the catch. Denver played last night in Phoenix and this will be their 3rd game in 4 days and 6th in 9 days. The Kings will be playing on 2 days of rest and this will only be their 4th game in 9 days. Additionally, that previously mentioned home loss to the Clippers snapped a 5-game home win streak for Sacramento. I look for them to get back on track tonight especially with a sizable rest advantage on their side. Give me the Kings minus points.

Pacers @ Heat 7:40 PM ET

Game# 503-504

Play On: Pacers +2.5

Indiana is coming off a stunning 114-110 home loss to Portland in a game they closed as a 12.0-point favorite. However, the Pacers have only dropped back-to-back games once this season and the last time it occurred was way back on 11/1. As a matter of fact, Indiana has gone a perfect 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 immediately following a loss and won by an average of 16.0 points per game. The Pacers have been a dynamic offensive team thus far and have averaged 127.6 points scored per game while also shooting a red-hot 50.3% from the field. Conversely, Miami is 0-3 SU in their last 3 and during those contests they allowed opponents to shoot 50.6%. Five me the Pacers plus points.

Raptors @ Cavaliers 7:00 PM ET

Game# 525-526

Play On: Raptors +1.5

The Raptors have shot the ball extremely well of late and Cleveland has been porous defensively over their last 2 games. Toronto has averaged 121.4 points scored per contest and shot 51.9% throughout their previous 2 games. Conversely, Toronto is coming off 2 consecutive home losses in which they allowed 125.0 points per contest, permitted their opponents to shoot 52.3%, and was -7 rebounds per game. Give me the Raptors plus points.

Heat @ Nets 6:10 PM ET

Game# 503-504

Play On: Nets -3.5

Miami (10-6) has won 9 of their last 11, and Brooklyn (6-8) is on a current 3-game losing streak. Yet, it’s the Nets that come up favorite in this spot which jumped off the page at me. However, after careful examination I can see precisely why the line is set where it is and a compelling case can be made for the home favorite. Miami will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days. The Heat suffered a 2-point loss to New York at Madison Square Garden last night in which they mounted a furious rally from a 21-point deficit and just fell short. In doing so, Miami expended a lot of energy and now will play today on less than 24 hours of rest. Conversely, Brooklyn will be playing on 2 days of rest. This marks just the 4th time this season that the Nets are installed as a favorite. That’s significant because Brooklyn is 3-0 SU&ATS as a favorite this season with an average victory margin of 13.3 points per game. Give me the Nets minus points.

Nuggets @ Rockets 8:10 PM ET

Game# 567-568

Play On: Rockets +3.0

The defending NBA champion Denver Nuggets are just 3-4 SU and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games. Denver is a perfect 7-0 at home this season, but they’re an uninspiring 3-5 SU on the road and includes a dreadful 1-7 ATS in those contests.

Since losing their home opener, Houston has gone an unscathed 7-0 SU&ATS at home with 4 of those coming as an underdog. Their average margin of victory in those contests came by a decisive 16.0 points per game. Give me the Rockets plus points.

Grizzlies @ Rockets 8:10 PM ET

Game# 545-546

Play On: Rockets -4.5

Memphis is off to a horrible 3-10 start to the season. Additionally, 2 of their 3 wins came over Portland and San Antonio who are currently a combined 6-22. Houston comes off a recently completed 0-3 road trip. However, those defeats came by a combined 8 points, and they covered on each occasion as an underdog. This will be just the 3rd time this season that Houston is installed as a favorite and they covered each of those situations. The Rockets are also 6-1 SU&ATS at home this season with a decisive +11.6 point per game differential. Give me the Rockets minus points.

Trailblazers @ Suns 9:10 PM ET

Game# 523-524

Play On: Suns -12.5

This is one of those rare instances that I’m willing to side with an NBA double-digit favorite. Portland has lost 7 straight which includes failing to cover their last 4 and losing being outscored by an average of 21.3 points per game. Throughout that 4-game stretch they averaged a mere 95.0 points scored per contest and shot a miserable 39.9%. During the past 3 seasons, Portland is 1-10 ATS after scoring 95 points or fewer in their previous contest and they were outscored by an average of 23.0 points per game. The Suns will enter this Pacific Division contest on a 3-game win streak while averaging 134.7 points scored per game and they shot a combined 53.5%. Phoenix has also made a sizzling hot 44% of their 3-point shot attempts throughout their last 5 games. Give me the Suns minus points.

Cavaliers @ 76ers 7:30 PM ET

Game# 519-520

Play On: Cavaliers +8.0

After a disappointing start to the season, Cleveland has begun to right the ship while having won their last 3. The latest of which was a 121-109 win over defending NBA champion Denver. During this current win streak, they shot 51.2% or better on all 3 occasions. Philly is coming off 2 straight road win over Atlanta 126-116 and Brooklyn 121-99. However, they’ve lost their last 2 at home.

Any NBA underdog of between 3.5 to 9.0 that scored 120 points or more in their previous game, and they’re facing an opponent that scored 120 points or greater in each of their previous 2 contests, resulted in those underdogs going 31-11 ATS (73.8%) during the previous 3 seasons. Give me the Cavaliers plus points.

Rockets @ Clippers 10:40 PM ET

Game# 541-542

Play On: Clippers -7.5

Taking the red-hot sizable road underdog Rockets who’s won 6 in a row versus an ice-cold Clippers team that’s on a 6-game losing streak qualifies as my designated sucker play of the day. Houston has played 7 of their first 9 games at home. During their current 6-0 SU&ATS run all have been played at home. The Rockets are 0-2 SU&ATS on the road and lost by an average of 17.0 points per game. The Clippers played 5 of 6 on the road during their current winless streak. However, at home, Los Angeles has gone 3-1 SU&ATS with an average +16.0 points per game differential. This line opened at 6.0 and at the time of this writing is 7.5 or 8.0 depending on what sportsbook you are looking at. If it looks too good to be true when it pertains to sports betting, it usually is. Give me the Clippers minus points.

Nets @ Heat 7:40 PM ET

Game# 519-520

Play On: Nets +3.5

Yes, Miami is on a 6-game win streak. However, all 6 of those wins have come by 8 points or fewer. So, it’s not like they’ve been winning decisively during this current hot run. The Heat are 3-1 SU at home but failed to cover on each of those 4 occasions. Additionally, in their only game versus Brooklyn this season they lost 109-105 as a 6.5-point home favorite.

Brooklyn is a mediocre 6-5 to start the season. Nevertheless, they’ve gone an extremely profitable 9-1-1 ATS during those 11 contests. Brooklyn has held all 11 of their opponents to less than 50% shooting. They’ve been especially stout defensively over their previous 4 contests while holding teams to 103.0 points scored per game and just 41.1% shooting. Give me the Nets plus points.

Timberwolves @ Suns 9:10 PM ET

Game# 511-512

Play On: Suns -6.0

This is an extremely fishy line with all being considered. Minnesota is on an 7-game win streak including coming off back-to-back wins at Golden State. Keep in mind, their win over the Warriors last night saw a brawl break out in the first 2 minutes of the game which resulted in 3 players being ejected and may cause a possible suspension or 2 which has yet to be determined. Then we have the Suns who have lost 4 in a row at home. Yet, it’s Phoenix that’s a sizable home favorite tonight. The sportsbooks are begging you to take the red-hot underdog in this spot. I’m going to reject that temptation. Give me the Suns minus points.

Celtics @ 76ers 7:40 PM ET

Game# 503-504

Play On: Celtics -4.5

These teams have played once this season and it occurred at Philadelphia last Wednesday with Philadelphia winning 106-103 as a 2.5-point home underdog. Well, the oddsmakers seem undeterred by that result based on the Celtics opening as a 3.5-point road favorite and they quickly moved to 4.5. Since that loss, Boston has gone 3-0 SU&ATS with an  average victory margin of 17.7 points per game. The 76ers will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days with the previous 2 at home versus Indiana in which they went 1-1. The 76ers expended a ton of energy in those 2 contests against a Pacers team that pushes the pedal to the metal regarding pace. Give me the Celtics minus points.

Pacers @ 76ers 7:10 ET

Game# 563-564

Play On: Pacers +5.5

These team played in Philadelphia on Tuesday and the 76ers walked away with a 137-26 win while also covering as a 7.0-point favorite. Yet, the 76ers opened as a 6.5-point favorite for today’s game and now they’re down to 5.0 despite them going 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 outings. The Pacers are very good offensively and to steal a boxing adage they give us a puncher’s chance as a result. Throughout their previous 6 contests, Indiana has averaged a robust 130.5 points scored per game and shot 51.7% from the field. Give me the Pacers plus points.

Bucks @ Pacers 7:10 PM ET

Game# 501-502

Play On: Pacers +3.0

Milwaukee is 5-2 to start the season. However, 4 of those 5 wins have come by 5 points or fewer and with the line exception being a 122-114 home victory over Miami. As a matter of fact, despite their 5-2 record, the Bucks are a -2.3 points per game differential and a -7.1 rebound per game differential. Additionally, throughout their previous 4 contests they’re an abysmal -12.3 rebound per game differential. The Bucks offense has been as explosive as it’s been in recent years. However, their play at the defensive end of the floor has been terrible.

Indiana will be playing the finale of a 5-game homestand today. The Pacers have been victorious in their last 2 with blowout wins over Utah 134-118 and San Antonio 152-111. The Pacers are 5-3 and 0.5 games behind Milwaukee in the standings, yet they have a superior point per game differential of +4.8 compared to the Bucks -2.3.

Any NBA home team like Indiana that’s coming off 2 or more home wins in a row, versus an opponent like Milwaukee that’s coming off a home win in which they scored 110 points or greater, resulted in those home teams going 55-19 SU since the 2019-2020 season. The SU betting angle takes on added significance because it backs the underdog in this spot. Give me the +Pacers plus points.

Raptors @ Mavericks 8:40 PM ET

Game# 573-574

Play On: Toronto +4.5

Despite being 6-1 to starts this season which includes 3-0 at home, Dallas finds itself as just a 4.5-point favorite versus a 3-4 Toronto team. Furthermore, this line opened at 6.0 and has come down to 4.5 even with most individual bets and money going the way of Dallas. This will only the 3rd game in 7 days for Toronto. Conversely, Dallas will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days. The Mavericks are a very talented team, but their defensive play leaves much to be desired and should rear its ugly head even more so when playing against an opponent with a clear advantage in terms of rest. Give me the Raptors plus points.

Raptors @ 76ers 7:10 PM ET

Game# 555-556

Play On: 76ers -8.0

I had Toronto last night and that result was never in doubt from the start has they blew out Milwaukee 130-11 as a 5.0-point home underdog. However, I don’t like this sport at all for them tonight. Toronto will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days. Additionally, they’ll be facing an opponent in Philadelphia which will be playing with 3 days rest since their last game. These teams met in Toronto last week and Philadelphia walked away with a 114-107 win despite Toronto making 53.1% of their 3-point shot attempts. I will go out on a limb and say the Raptors won’t come anywhere close to that in this one. Give me the 76ers minus points.

Kings @ Warriors 10:10 PM ET

Game# 551-552

Play On: Warriors -7.0

No analysis on NBA picks today due to time constraints.

Bucks @ Raptors 7:10 PM ET

Game# 531-532

Play On: Raptors +5.5

No analysis on NBA picks today due to time constraints.

Nuggets @ Heat 8:30 PM ET

Game# 519-520

Play On: Heat +3.5 (10*)

Miami is coming off Wednesday’s 109-94 home loss in Game 3. As expected, there’s been a ton of bets and money placed on Denver in today’s Game 4 based on what the public just witnessed 2 days ago. We have seen this act before where bettors kick Miami right in the teeth when they’re down and presumably on life support. On most occasions the Heat have responded in a big way to those situations and especially so when playing at home. Specifically speaking, Miami is 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 at home immediately following a loss in their previous game. That includes 3-0 ATS and 2-1 SU if they were a home underdog.

NBA Playoffs home underdogs of 4.0 or less that are playing in Round 2 or beyond like Miami that are coming off a home SU&ATS loss, and they’re down 2-1 in a series, resulted in those home underdogs of 4.0 or less going 5-0 SU&ATS since the 2003 postseason. Those underdogs not only covered on each occasion, and but won all 5 contests SU and by an average of 8.4 points per game.

Give me the Miami Heat plus points.

Heat @ Nuggets 8:00 PM ET

Game# 515-516

Play On: Heat +8.5 (5*)

The Heat barely missed covering in Game 1 despite attempting only 2 free throws and shooting a miserable 40.6% from the field. Miami amassed 96 field goal attempts in that opening game loss and that’s significant. The Heat are 11-1 SU this season after attempting 93 or more field goal attempts during regulation time in their previous game. That improves to 6-0 SU if they lost that previous game, and they outscored those 6 opponents by an average of 8.5 points per contest. Those SU results take on added betting value when considering Miami is currently an 8.5-point underdog in Game 2. Furthermore, Miami has gone 4-0 SU in their last 4 this postseason following a game in which they shot 45.7% or worse. As a matter of fact, they shot a red-hot 52.7% in those 4 wins. Miami was just 13-39 from 3-point territory in Game 1. Nevertheless, they finished that contest 7-15 from beyond the 3-point line after starting the contest 6-24.

Give me the Miami Heat plus points.

Heat @ Nuggets 8:30 PM ET

Game# 513-514

Play On: Denver -8.5 (5*)

Since the start of the 2021-2022 NBA season, Denver has gone an unscathed 6-0 SU&ATS versus Miami. The Nuggets are also 8-0 SU at home during these 2023 NBA Playoffs with an average victory margin of 12.0 points per game. Additionally, Miami is coming off a grueling and emotional 7 game series win over Boston that just ended on Monday night in which they nearly squandered a commanding 3-0 series lead. Conversely, Denver will be playing on 9 days rest after completing a 4-game sweep of the Los Angeles Lakers in the Western Conference Finals. The Nuggets will obviously have a huge advantage in terms of rest and preparation heading into Game 1 of the 2023 NBA Finals.

Since 2004, NBA Finals Game 1 home favorites like Denver have gone an extremely profitable 16-2 SU and 15-3 ATS (83%). Furthermore, if those favorites were -5.5 to -11.5 like Denver will be in Game 1 on Thursday night, then they improve to a perfect 8-0 SU&ATS with a substantial average victory margin of 15.0 points per contest.

Give me the Denver Nuggets minus the points.

Heat @ Celtics 8:30 PM ET

Game# 549-550

Play On: Celtics -8.0 (5*)

The Celtics staved off elimination with an impressive blowout win at Miami in Game 4. NBA Playoffs home favorites of -6.0 to -12.5 like Boston that are down 3-1 in their current series, resulted in those home favorites going 8-1 ATS and 9-0 SU since the 2009 postseason. The average margin of victory in those 8 contests came by an average of 13.1 points per game. The only non-cover came on 4/30/2013 when Denver was a 7.5-point home favorite and they won by 7 versus Golden State.

Give me the Boston Celtics minus the points.

Celtics @ Heat 8:30 PM ET

Game# 545-546

Play On: Celtics +2.0 (5*)

Boston has lost the first 3 games of this Eastern Conference Finals. Since the start of the 2020-2021 NBA season, Boston has gone 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS immediately following 3 straight losses. Putting those results into perspective, the Celtics have lost 4 games in a row just once over the previous 3 seasons. Furthermore, since 11/28/2021, Boston is an unscathed 6-0 SU&ATS on the road in contests like today in which they scored 105 points or fewer in each of their previous 2 games. Boston had an average point-spread of -1.1 in those 6 contests and won by an average of 14.8 points per game.

Miami is 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS this season immediately following 2 straight wins in which they allowed 105 points or fewer. That includes 0-4 SU&ATS in their last 4 in that identical situation.

Give me the Boston Celtics plus the small number.

Nuggets @ Lakers 8:30 PM ET

Game# 539-540

Play On:  Lakers -5.5 (5*)

The Nuggets are a perfect 8-0 at home in these Playoffs, but they’ve lost 3 of their last 4 on the road.

The Lakers will be playing with plenty of desperation and urgency at home tonight after losing the first 2 games of this Western Conference Final at Denver. It’s worth noting, the Lakers are 6-0 at home during the 2023 NBA Playoffs and with a substantial average victory margin of 18.3 points per game. As a matter of fact, dating back to the regular season, the Lakers will enter today on a 9-game home win streak.

Since the 2003 NBA Playoffs, any home favorite of 4.5 to 8.5-points that’s down 2-0 in the series, and they’re facing an opponent that’s anywhere from a #1 through #4 seed, resulted in those home favorites withing that specific point-spread parameter going 22-5 ATS (81.5%). If those home teams were facing a #1 seed, they were a perfect 6-0 SU&ATS during that exact time span, and they won by an average of 17.0 points per game.

Give me the Lakers minus the points.

Heat @ Celtics 8:30 PM ET

Game# 537-538

Play On: Celtics -8.5 (5*)

Boston is coming off a disappointing 123-116 home loss to Miami in game they closed as a 8.5-point favorite. Recent NBA Playoff betting history shows that teams like Boston coming off a Game 1 loss as a sizable home favorite doing very well as a similar sized chalk in Game 2. Additionally, the Celtics are an extremely profitable 9-1 SU&ATS in their last 10 games following a loss in their previous contest.

Any NBA Playoffs Game 2 home favorite of 3.5 to 9.5-points that’s coming off an upset loss as a home favorite in which they scored 105 points or more, resulted in those home teams going a perfect 8-0 SU&ATS since the 2019 NBA Postseason. The average line for those home favorites was -6.8 and they won by an enormous 23.5 points per game.

Give me the Boston Celtics minus points.

Lakers @ Nuggets 8:30 PM ET

Game# 535-536

Play On: Lakers +5.5 (5*)

The Lakers have been terrific in recent times while going 6-0 SU&ATS in their last 6 immediately following a loss. As a matter of fact, they’re 4-0 SU&ATS during these 2023 NBA Postseason following a loss and won by a massive 25.3 points per game. Furthermore, the Lakers are 6-0 SU&ATS in their last 6 as an away underdog of 8.5 or less following a loss with an average victory margin of 10.1 points per game.

Give me the Lakers plus the points.