Sports Picks & Predictions

49ers vs. Chiefs :630 PM ET

Game# 101-102

Play On: Under 47.5

The Chiefs have played 5-1 to the under in their last 6 and 12-4 under during their previous 16 games. Kansas City hasn’t allowed more than 27 points all season long. Kansas City has played 11-1 to the under this season versus teams like San Francisco that complete 64% or better of their pass attempts and there was only a combined 37.0 points scored per game. The Chiefs have also played 6-0 to the under this season versus teams like San Francisco that average 4.5 or more yards per rush attempt and there was a combined 33.6 points scored per contest. Throughout their 3 postseason games, the Chiefs have run the ball on 46.6% of their offensive plays and that far exceeds their season average of 40.3%.

Since Andy Reid has taken over as head coach of the Kansas City Chiefs, his team have played 12-3 to the under immediately following a bye week. Reid’s Chiefs are also 7-0 to the under during his tenure when coming off back-to-back road wins that each came by 7 points or fewer.

San Francisco is coming off a 34-31 home win over Detroit in the NFC Championship Game. Kyle Shanahan has seen his 49ers teams play 16-7 to the under immediately following a game in which they allowed 30 points or more. During the previous 3 seasons, the 49ers have played 9-3 to the under in all games not played at home and where their point-spread was between -3.0 to +3.0 and there was a combined 40.5 points scored per game.

These teams rank 2nd and 3rd in scoring defense with the Chiefs allowing 17.3 points per gam and San Francisco 17.5. The Chiefs defense ranks 2nd in the NFL with 57 sacks and the 49ers are 7th with 48. Give me this game to go under the total.

49ers vs. Chiefs 6:30 PM ET

Pick: Chiefs +2.0 

Since the start of the 2021-2022 season, Kansas City is 10-1 SU&ATS in away games or at a neutral site when their point-spread was +3.0 to -3.0. During that exact time span, Kansas City was also a perfect 6-0 SU&ATS as an underdog in away or neutral site games. Andy Reid teams in both Philadelphia and Kansas City have been phenomenal when coming off a bye week. Give me Kansas City plus points.

Lions @ 49ers 6:30 PM ET

Game# 321-322

Play On: 49ers -7.0

The difference in this game will be the 49ers passing game against a Detroit defense which has allowed 319 yards or more through the air in each of their previous 5 games. Additionally, the 49ers defense is allowing just 17.7 points and 305.4 yards per game this season which ranks among the league’s best in both categories. Lastly, the 49ers are the more experienced team in big game situations such as these and Detroit takes to the road for a first time this postseason. Give me the 49ers plus points.

Props

·       Brock Purdy over 276.5 passing yards.

·       49ers over 30.5 points scored.

·       Chrisian McCaffery under 84.5 (-115) rushing yards.

·       Chrisian McCaffery over 36.5 (-115) receiving yards.

Chiefs @ Bills 6:30 PM ET

Game# 317-318

Play On: Bills -2.5 (10*)

Despite all the success that Patrick Mahomes has had in his career postseason career, this will be his first start on the road in the AFC Wildcard Round, AFC Divisional Round, and AFC Championship Game. Technically Mahomes does have 1 postseason road start and came versus Tampa Bay in the Super Bowl which the Chiefs lost.

Buffalo is 8-1 at home this season while outscoring their opponents by an average of 14.7 points per game. Under current head coach Sean McDermott, the Bills are 5-1 SU in their postseason home games. Additionally, this will be just the 3rd time in that stretch they’ll be a home favorite of 4.5 or less. The previous 2 time they beat Baltimore 17-3 in 2021 and New England 47-17 in 2022. The Bills enter this contest on a 6-game win streak while 4 of those 6 opponents finished with regular season action with a winning record. The Bills suffered 6 losses this season, and they all came by 6 points or fewer. So, a strong case can be made for them being an even better team than their current 12-6 record indicates. It’s been well documented how Buffalo will be shorthanded due to several injuries to starters and most notable on the defensive side of the board. However, they do have quality depth on the defensive side of the ball. Buffalo began their current win streak with a 20-17 win at Kansas City.

The Bills are coming off a 31-17 home win over Pittsburgh last week, and they covered as a 10.0-point favorite. The current total on today’s game is 45.5. This sets up a 100% betting angle that has remained unscathed since 2009. NFL postseason home favorites of 7.0 or less with a total that’s 51.0 or less and they’re coming off a home favorite ATS win in which they covered by 10.0 or less, resulted in those postseason home favorites going 6-0 ATS since 2009. The average line in those 6 contests was 4.9 and those home favorites won by an average of 13.7 points per game. Give me the Bills minus points.

Buccaneers @ Lions 3:00 PM ET

Game# 315-316

Play On: Buccaneers +6.0

The Lions escaped with a 24-23 home win over the Rams in the Wildcard Round last Saturday night but failed to cover as a 3.0-point favorite. You may be surprised to know, that marked their first win of the season at home versus an opponent that finished regular season action with a winning record. They were 0-2 SU&ATS in their previous 2 games in that role while losing to Seattle and Green Bay. Now they’re better than a touchdown favorite versus a Tampa Bay team which has gone 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 on the road which included an impressive 34-20 win at Green Bay. As a matter of fact, Tampa Bay is 6-1 SU in their last 7 games. The Buccaneer quarterback and former first overall draft pick Baker Mayfield is arguably enjoying the best season of his career. As a matter of fact, Mayfield has thrown for 283 yards or more in 4 of his last 5 games. Mayfield will be facing a Detroit defense which has allowed 323 yards or more passing in each of their previous 4 games. The Tampa Bay defense has allowed just 18.6 points per game this season.  Additionally, Tampa has allowed only 11.0 points and 272.5 yards per game throughout their previous 4 contests. Give me the Buccaneers plus points.

Packers @ 49ers 8:15 PM ET

Game# 303-304

Play On: 49ers -9.5

The public is certainly in love with Green Bay after watching them blow out Dallas as a 7.5-point road underdog in last week’s Wildcard Round. The question then becomes, if they beat the NFC #2 seed easily as a 7.5-point dog, then why are they 9.5-point dogs on Saturday night. The oddsmakers aren’t deterred by what they saw last week, and neither am I. Give me the 49ers minus points.

Texans @ Ravens 4:30 PM ET

Game# 301-302

Play On: Under 44.0

The Ravens have allowed 20 points or fewer in 12 of 17 games this season. Since John Harbaugh has taken over as head coach in Baltimore, his Ravens teams have played 5-0 to the under during postseason home games. The average total in those 5 contests was 42.0 and there were a combined 34.0 points scored per game.

Baltimore is a run heavy team by NFL standards. The Ravens have run the ball on 52.4% of their offensive plays. The Texans have allowed less than 100 yards rushing in 12 of their last 14 games. Texan’s rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud has enjoyed a stellar NFL debut season and stepped-up big time during last week’s Wildcard Round home win over Cleveland. However, on the road against an experienced defense that ranks #1 in both sacks and points allowed is a whole other animal. Give me this game to go under the total.

Eagles @ Buccaneers 8:15 PM ET

Game# 151-152

Play On: Over 43.0

The weather forecast is calling for a 60% chance of rain showers throughout the game. However, the win will be a non-factor. These teams met earlier this season at Tampa Bay and the Eagles won 26-11 while piling up 473 yards of total offense. Philadelphia’s point production was a bit deceiving since they settled for 4 field goals after driving inside the red zone on each occasion. The Eagle defense has been a mess over their last 7 contests while allowing 30.9 points and 401.1 yards per game. During their previous 7 this season versus fellow NFC teams the Tampa Bay Buccaneers averaged a healthy 24.7 points scored per game. Give me this game to go over the total.

Steelers @ Bills 4:30 PM ET

Game# 145-146

Play On: Bills -10.0

Since the 2011 NFL postseason, playoff home favorites of between -10.0 and -1.5 are 9-0 SU&ATS with an average victory margin of 16.1 points per game. Since the start of the 2021-2022 NFL regular season, the Steelers are 0-4 SU&ATS as an away underdog of 7.5 or greater and they were outscored by 26.0 points per game. Under current head coach Sean McDermott, Buffalo is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS as a conference favorite of between 8.0 to 13.5 and won by an average of 17.8 points per game. McDermott’s Bills are also 3-1 SU&ATS versus Mike Tomlin’s Steelers since 2019 and outscored them by an average of 11.4 points per game. Give me the Bills minus points.

Packers @ Cowboys 4:30 PM ET

Game# 147-148

Play On: Cowboys -7.0

Dallas is 8-0 at home this season while outscoring their opponents by an average of 23.5 points scored per game. The Packers enter the postseason on a 3-game win streak but none of those opponents they faced finished with a winning record. Their offense has steadily improved throughout the season to the point they were impressive down the final stretch of regular season action. Much of that success centered around quarterback Jordan Love who has quietly put together a stellar season which saw home throw for 32 touchdown passes against just 11 picks. However, this will be his first career postseason start and, on the road, no less against a Dallas defense that finished regular season action #5 in yards and points allowed per game. Furthermore, Dallas’ offense finished 1st in scoring at 29.9 points scored per game and #5 in total yards at 371.6 yards per game. Throughout the previous 3 seasons, Dallas has gone an outstanding 12-5 ATS as a home favorite of between 3.5 to 9.5 and outscored their opponents by a substantial margin of 15.4 points per game.

Dolphins @ Chiefs 8:15 PM ET

Game# 143-144

Play On: Chiefs -4.5

Miami enters the postseason mentally deflated. They lost their last 2 games of regular season action which included last Sunday night’s home loss to Buffalo that dropped them from a #2 to #6 seed. Putting things into perspective, they blew a 3.0 game lead over Buffalo in the last 5 games of the season and choked away a chance to end Buffalo’s 3-year reign as AFC East Division champions.  It’s also well documented the recent struggle that Miami has endured when playing teams with a winning record since early last season. To make matters worse, they’ll be facing a Kansas City team which is 8-1 SU & 6-3 ATS in their last 9 postseason home games and that includes 3-0 SU&ATS as a favorite of 6.5 or less.

NFL postseason home favorites of 5.0 or less with a win percentage of .625 or better versus an opponent coming off 2 consecutive losses, resulted in those home favorites going 7-0 SU&ATS since 1996. The average margin of victory in those 7 contests came by an average of 18.9 points per game. Give me the Chiefs minus points.

Browns @ Texans 4:30 PM ET

Game# 141-142

Play On: Texans +2.5

The Browns are getting a lot of love as a Super Bowl sleeper pick out of the AFC. However, getting by Houston on the road will be no easy task despite them currently being a small favorite in the contest. Here’s the thing, Houston has committed just 14 turnovers this season. Conversely, Cleveland has managed to go 11-6 this season despite an alarmingly high 37 turnovers committed. That 37-14 disparity is the largest ever for an NFL postseason game. Let alone, the team that’s -23 is a road favorite. Additionally, Houston is 6-1 SU in their last 7 at home when C.J. Stroud is their starting quarterback. Stroud is a stone-cold lock for NFL Rookie of the Year while throwing 23 touchdowns versus just 5 interceptions in his 15 starts. Compare that to his counterpart Joe Flacco who has thrown 8 picks in just 5 starts. Cleveland’s overall defensive numbers are extremely good. But they’re magnificent at home and average at best on the road where they’re allowing 29.6 points per game.

Since 1980, NFL Playoff home underdogs have gone 31-16 ATS including 10-0 ATS and 8-2 SU when they were a dog of 2.0 or less. Give me the Texans plus points.

Washington vs. Michigan 7:30 PM ET

Game# 287-288

Play On: Michigan -4.5

The Wolverines defense will be the difference in this contest and will be the best stop unit that Washington’s offense will have faced all season. The Huskies star quarterback Michael Pennix is adept when it comes to getting rid of the ball quickly and with pinpoint accuracy. Those traits have given opposing secondaries fits this season. However, the Wolverines defense is extremely good and will force Pennix to hang on to the ball a lot more than he’s been used to and in turn will make Michigan’s stellar front 7 a relevant factor. The Wolverines have allowed 24 points or fewer in all 14 games this season and 15 or less on 11 separate occasions. Additionally, Michigan has also allowed less than 200 yards passing in 12 of 14 games. Conversely, Washington has allowed 31 points or more 6 times this season. Here’s another thing that favors Michigan. They’re +16 in the turnover margin this season while Washington is only +1. This is the Wolverines year and they’ll be out to make an emphatic statement tonight. Give me Michigan minus points.

Bills @ Dolphins 8:20 PM ET

Game# 455-456

Play On: Bills -2.5

Buffalo has had Miami’s number in recent season while winning 10 of the last 11 meetings. Their lone loss in that sequence was 21-19 on the road in September of 2022. The Bills deserved a better fate in that defeat when considering they outgained Miami 497-212. Additionally, Josh Allen’s career passing and rushing statistics are far and away the best against Miami than any other NFL team. Buffalo has been as healthy as they’ve been in quite some time, while Miami has sustained many key injuries heading into this matchup. Give me Buffalo minus points.

Rams @ 46ers 4:25 PM ET

Game# 453-454

Play On: 49ers -4.0

The 49ers have clinched the NFC #1 seed and will rest starters Brock Purdy (QB) and Christian McCaffery (RB) just to name a couple. However, I like the 49ers chances much more with Sam Darnold at quarter than the Rams expected starter Carson Wentz. The Rams have clinched a wildcard berth and will be either a #6 or #7 seed. Hence Sean McVay has chosen to rest starters Mathew Stafford (QB), Aaron Donald (DT), Cooper Kupp (WR), and Kyren Williams (RB). I also like the quality depth on the 4ers roster much more than that of the Rams. Give me the 49ers minus points.

Eagles @ Giants 4:25 PM ET

Game# 459-460

Play On: Eagles -4.0

The Eagles have pretty much squandered what looked to be a commanding lead in the NFC East with their late season swoon that seen them go 1-4 over their last 5 games. The epitome of that collapse occurred last week when they blew and 15-point halftime lead in a 35-31 home loss versus the Arizona Cardinals (4-12) that allowed the Dallas Cowboys to surpass them in the standings. The bottom line is this, Philadelphia needs something to feel good about heading into the postseason especially where it’s likely they’ll require 3 road wins to get back to the Super Bowl for a 2nd straight season. The Giants (5-11) playoff hopes have long been gone and they enter their regular season finale on a 3-game losing streak. The Giants have lost 5 straight games to the Eagles and by a substantial average of 19.0 points per contest. The Eagle defense has been anything but playoff caliber over their previous 6 games while allowing 31.5 points and 398.8 points per contest. Nonetheless, they don’t figure to get exposed by a Giants offense which has averaged 12.3 points scored and 277.9 yards gained per contest over 7 home games. Give me the Eagles minus points.

Bears @ Packers 4:25 PM ET

Game# 463-464

Play On: Packers -2.5

The Bears have played terrific down the final stretch of regular season action with all being considered. Chicago has won 4 of their last 5 and is 6-1-1 ATS during their previous 8 contests. The Packers have been no slouches as well while winning 5 of their last 7 and averaged 31.2 points scored per game. The Packers are 9-0 SU&ATS in their last 9 versus Chicago including a 38-20 blowout win at Soldier Field in their regular season opener. Urgency and desperation will be on the side of the Packers since with a win earns them an NFL Wildcard spot. Give me the Packers minus points.

Texans @ Colts 8:15 PM ET

Game# 469-470

Play On: Over 47.5

Indianapolis has gone over the total in all 4 at home this season when the total was 44.0 or greated and there was a combined average of 54.0 points scored per game. Since the start of last season, all 3 meetings between these division rivals have gone over the total with a combined 51.0 points scored per game. The Colts are #9 in scoring offense but #24 in total defense and are the #27 NFL scoring defense. Houston is the #7 passing offense in the NFL and that’s despite having to play a short stretch without their starting quarterback C.J. Stroud who is an absolute lock for NFL Rookie of the Year. Since the beginning of the 2021-2022 season the Colts quarterback is 22-11 to the over during his 33 starts. Give me this game to go over the total.

Texas vs. Washington 8:45 PM ET

Game# 279-280

Play On: Texas -3.5

This is one of those situations where many bettors will be lured into taking the underdog Washington Huskies. After all, Washington enters this matchup 13-0 and is the higher ranked team versus the favorite Texas Longhorns (12-1). Nonetheless, I’m not taking the bait. Keep in mind, Washington’s last 9 wins have all come by 10 points or fewer. So, it’s not like they’ve been dominating the opposition. Both offenses will be able to move the ball. But I like Texas’ defense much better than that of Washington’s stop unit. Despite their undefeated record, the Washington defense allowed 500 yards or more on 3 separate occasions this season. Give me Texas minus points.

Alabama vs. Michigan 5:00 PM ET

Game# 277-278

Play On: Michigan -124

Alabama unequivocally faced a tougher slate playing in the SEC and facing #3 Texas in a non-conference game. But let’s keep things in perspective. The Crimson Tide needed a 4th and goal 27-yard miraculous touchdown pass to beat a very average at best Auburn (6-7) team in their regular season finale. They followed that up with a narrow 3-point win over Georgia in the SEC Title Game. Not to mention the previously mentioned early season matchup versus Texas where they lost by 10 at home. Michigan has received a ton of criticism this season for the weak schedule they faced. Nonetheless, the only close call they had was in their regular season finale 30-24 win over Ohio State who was 11-0  at the time on their way to a perfect 13-0 record. The Wolverines defense is #1 in scoring defense and will be a key element to us attaining the win. Give me Michigan as a money line favorite.

Liberty vs. Oregon 1:00 PM ET

Game# 277-278

Play On: Oregon -17.5

Liberty comes into this New Year’s Fiesta Bowl game undefeated at 13-0 and will take on a Power 5 Conference team for the first time this season. Although they look forward to the challenge and tough task at hand, it may be one of those be careful what you wish for scenarios. 6th year quarterback and Heisman Trophy finalist Bo Nix will play for Oregon. All Nix did this year was throw for 4145 yards and 40 touchdowns against only 3 picks. Nix also ran for 228 yards and 6 scores as well. Oregon will be without some key offensive skill position players who have opted out. But the Ducks annually bring in top recruiting classes and have high quality depth. Oregon is 11-2 and their only losses were a pair of 3-point defeats against #2 Washington (13-0). Additionally, Oregon is #10 nationally in scoring defense at 17.2 points per game. Oregon is also #2 in both scoring and total offense. Liberty is #1 nationally when it comes to rushing offense at 302.9 yards per game and #3 in total offense. However, Oregon is 12th nationally in rush defense while allowing just 97.9 yards per game. Give me Oregon minus the points.

Iowa vs. Tennessee 1:00 PM ET

Game#  275-276

Play On: Tennessee -5.5

Yes, Tennessee starting quarterback Joe Milton Jr. opted out of this bowl game. But, I’m not so sure that’s a bad thing. Tennessee will go with 5* true freshmen Nico Iamaleava who projected to be a star. Iowa’s offense is anemic and that might be kind. On the other hand, the Hawkeye defense is excellent and the main reason they went 10-2 during regular season action before losing to Michigan 26-0 in the Big 10 Championship Game. By, the way, the Tennessee defense is a pretty good unit as well and faced a lot more explosive offenses in the SEC than Iowa faced in the top heavy Big 10. Give me Tennessee minus points.

Wisconsin vs. LSU 12:00 PM ET

Game# 273-274

Play On: Over 56.5

LSU will be without Heisman Trophy winning quarterback Jayden Daniels who opted out of this bowl game. However, they’ll have every other starter on both sides of the ball. The LSU defense has been terrible all season. However, their offense was the top scoring unit in all of College Football and even without Daniels will be able to move the ball consistently with 4* backup quarterback Garrett Nussmeir. Wisconsin has a pretty good quarterback of their own in Tanner Mordecai in addition to a powerful running game at his disposal. Give me this game to go over the total.

Bengals @ Chiefs 4:25 PM ET

Game# 127-128

Play On: Bengals +6.5

The Chiefs are 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 as a favorite of 8.5 or less. Furthermore, Kansas City is 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 at home, and 0-3 SU&ATS at home this season versus opponents that currently own a winning record. The Chiefs are also a concerning -10 turnover margin throughout their previous 8 games.

Since taking over at starting quarterback for an injured Joe Burrow, Jale Browning has made 5 starts and averaged 303.0 yards passing per game, threw for 7 touchdowns, and ran for 2 scores. That’s a respectable job done from a backup quarterback. The Bengals are coming off last week’s extremely disappointing 34-11 loss at Pittsburgh which halted their 3-game win streak.  Cincinnati is 8-7 and still contending for a Wildcard berth. Here’s the odd thing about the Bengals record this season, they’re a dismal 0-5 versus division opponents, and an impressive 8-2 in their other 10 games. Since the start of the 2021-2022 season, Cincinnati is a very profitable 9-1 ATS as a road underdog of between 3.5 to 9.5-points, and they won 7 of those 10 contests SU. Give me the Bengals plus points.

Steelers @ Seahawks 4::05 PM ET

Game# 125-126

Play On: Seahawks -3.5

Pittsburgh is coming off a 34-11 home win over Cincinnatti that kept their AFC Wildvcard hopes alive. I’m extremely confident that we’ll see a gross overreaction from the sports betting public as a result. The fact of the matter is I’ve been calling the Steelers a fraud for the last 2 months and 1 dominating performance with a 3rd string quarterback playing over his head isn’t about to change my mind.

Although they haven’t attained the results they would have hoped for, Seattle has played very well down the stretch while going 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games. During that span, they faced San Francisco (11-4) twice, Dallas (10-5), Philadelphia (11-4), and the LA Rams (8-7). Furthermore, Seattle is 4-0 SU in non-division home games this season. Give me the Seahawks minus points.

Play on any NFL favorite versus an opponent coming off a SU underdog win by 14 points or more who has a win percentage of between .450 to .550, resulted in those NFL favorites going 52-23 ATS (69.3%) since 1983.

Dolphins @ Ravens 1:00 PM ET

Game# 105-106

Play On: Ravens -3.0

The Dolphins have played an extremely soft schedule this season that has seen them face 11 teams that currently have a losing record in their first 15 games. Miami finally defeated a team with a winning record for the first time in 29 contests last Sunday in a 2-point home win over Dallas. The previous time they accomplished that feat was in September of 2022 and a 21-19 home win over Buffalo. It’s been quite a while since Miami defeated a team with a winning record on the road. Additionally, Miami has gone 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 not played at home versus teams with a winning record and allowed 33.3 points per game.

The Baltimore defense has played extremely well this season and they’ll be challenged on Sunday by a Miami team which averages 30.9 points scored per game. However, the Ravens are 6-0 SU&ATS this season when they faced a team that was averaging 24.0 or more points scored per contest and with an average victory margin of 21.8 points scored per game. Baltimore also will enter this extremely important AFC matchup on a 5-game win streak in which they outscored those opponents by an average of 12.0 points scored per game. The Ravens have also scored 31 points or more in 7 of their last 9 games played. Give me the Ravens minus points.

Falcons @ Bears 1:00 PM ET

Game# 109-110

Play On: Bears -140 (ML)

Atlanta has gone 1-3 versus non-division opponents with their lone win coming over the Jets 13-8. The Falcons have played 7 away/neutral site games and averaged a mere 13.6 points scored and 266.4 yards gained per game.

The Bears are finishing the year strong. That been especially the cast at home where they’ve won 4 straight and outscored their opponents by an average of 11.7 points per game. Throughout their 7 at Soldier Field this season, Chicago has allowed just 268.7 yards per contest and outgained their opponents by 78.6 yards per game. Chicago is coming off last week’s 27-16 home win over Arizona which saw them pile up 420 yards of total offense and improve their season record to 6-9/.400.

Any NFL home team playing after Game 8 and is coming off a home win by 10 points or more, and they possess a win percentage of between .400 to .490, resulted in those home teams going 43-13 (76.8%) against the money line since 1983. Give me the Bears as a money line favorite.

Raiders @ Colts 1:00 PM ET

Game# 113-114

Play On: Colts -4.0

The Raiders are coming off a emotional 20-14 win at Kansas City as a double-digit underdog. Nevertheless, let’s keep things in perspective because both Raiders touchdowns were scored by their defense, and they faced a Kansas City offense which had been struggling offensively of late and turning the ball over way too much.  Truth be told, the Raiders offense produced just an atrocious 205 yards of total offense in that win at Kansas City. They’ve been anemic offensively on the road this season while averaging a scant 14.7 points scored and 236.9 yards gained per game while also being outscored by an average of 9.3 points per contest.

The Colts started the season by losing 4 of their first 5 games at home. But they won their last 2 in Indianapolis with victories over Pittsburgh 30-14 and Tampa Bay 27-20 both of which currently have 8-7 records with each still alive for a playoff berth. Unlike the Raiders offensive struggles on the road, the Colts are averaging 27.0 points scored and 375.9 yards gained per game at home. The Colts are engulfed in a 3-way tie for first place in the AFC South standings with Houston and Jacksonville. Urgency, desperation, and playing at home will be instrumental to the Colts getting the win and cover. Give me the Colts minus points.

Saints @ Buccaneers 1:00 PM ET

Game# 121-122

Play On: Buccaneers -136 (ML)

NFL money line favorites like Tampa Bay that are playing after Game 8 which also scored 30 points or more in their previous game, and both teams in the matchup average between 18 to 23 points scored per game, resulted in those money line favorite going 34-4 (89.5%) since 2014. The favorites average money line in those contests was -145 and they outscored those 38 opponents by 10.2 points per game. Give me the Bucs minus points.

49ers @ Commanders 1:00 PM ET

Game# 123-124

Play On: Over 49.5

The Commanders figure to get a much-needed spark with veteran quarterback Jacoby Brissett replacing struggling Sam Howell. Even with Howell, Washington has gone over the total in their last 4 at home with a combined average of 59.7 points scored per contest. On a negative note, the Commanders have allowed 34.7 points and 407.3 yards per game throughout their previous 6 contests.

The 49ers are one of if not the best NFL offenses when healthy like they are right now. Throughout their previous 4 on the road, the 49ers averaged 38.0 points scored and 419.0 yards gained per game. They’ve also gone over the total in their last 3 on the road with a combined average of 59.7 points scored per game. The 49ers have a very talented group, but over their previous 3 contests they’re allowing an uninspiring 26.0 points and 367.7 yards per game. Give me this game to go over the total.

Lions @ Cowboys 8:15 PM ET

Game# 103-104

Play On: Over 52.0

Dallas is 7-0 at home this season while averaging a robust 39.9 points per game. The once thought of dominant Dallas defense has been anything but over their previous 4 contests while allowing 25.3 points and 364.0 yards per game. Detroit has gone over the total in their last 6 when the total was 45.0 or greater and there was a combined average of 60.2 points scored per game. The Lions have scored 30 points or more in 5 of their last 7 and 8 of 15 games this season. Since the start of the 2019-2020 season, Dallas has played 27-12 to the over as a home favorite and with Dak Prescott was their starting quarterback. During those 39 contests Dallas averaged a lofty 33.5 points scored per game. Give me this game to go over the total.

Maryland vs. Auburn 2:00 PM ET

Game# 267-268

Play On: Auburn -4.5

Auburn is an excellent running team that’s rushed for 144 yards or more in all 7 games versus SEC opponents. That includes running for 244 yards vs. #4 Alabama (12-1) and 219 yards against #6 Georgia (12-1) in near upsets of both those highly ranked foes. Maryland will be without their starting quarterback who opted out to prepare himself for the NFL draft. That’s an issue when considering Marland averages only 109 yards rushing per game and 56.7% of their offensive plays have been pass attempts. Last, the Terrapins defense allowed their last 4 opponents to rush for 152 yards or more (170.8 YPG). Give me Auburn minus points.

Missouri vs. Ohio State 8:00 PM ET

Game# 263-264

Play On: Under 50.5

No analysis today due to time constraints.

Oregon State vs. Notre Dame 2:00 PM ET

Game# 259-260

Play On: Over 39.5

No analysis today due to time constraints.

Rutgers vs. Miami Fla. 2:15 PM ET

Game# 251-252

Play On: Miami Fla. +2.5

Despite going 3-5 in their last 8 regular season games, Miami still finished at 7-5. Since the start of last season, Rutgers has gone 1-9 ATS when facing a team with a winning record and were outscored by a substantial margin of 26.6 points per game. The Rutgers offense relies heavily on their running game. The Scarlett Knights have run the ball on 62.9% of their offense plays and 54% of their total yards have come on the ground. However, Miami ranks 16th nationally in rush defense while allowing just 96 yards per game and a mere 3.1 yards per rush attempt. Miami will go with 3rd string quarterback Jacurri Brown against Rutgers. Brown will be seeing his first action of the season in the Pinstripe Bowl. Nevertheless, he played in 8 games a season ago which included 2 starts. Brown is a big 240-pound quarterback with agility as evidence by his 223 yards rushing in limited playing time. He also threw for 3 touchdowns and was intercepted just once in those 2 starts. Give me Miami plus points.

Texas A& M vs. Oklahoma State 9:00 PM ET

Game# 247-248

Play On: Oklahoma State -3.5

Texas A&M will be playing with an interim coaching staff while Mike Elko waits in the wings to take over as head coach. The A&M roster has been decimated by opt outs and players entering the transfer portal. Notably starting quarterback Max Johnson and 5 defensive starters that logged 365 plays or more this season. That’s not good news when facing an Oklahoma State team that made it to the Big 12 Conference Championship game and scored 39 points or more in 5 of their last 8 games. Additionally, the Cowboys roster was hardly dented by the transfer portal and opt outs in comparison to the rest of this season’s bowl teams.

West Virginia vs. North Carolina 5:30 PM ET

Game# 243-244

Play On: West Virginia -5.0

North Carolina will be without their 3 top players in quarterback Drake Maye, wide receiver Tez Walker, and linebacker Cedric Gray. If there’s a reason to call an 8-4 team disappointing, then North Carolina fits the bill. The Tar Heels began the season 6-0 but finished the regular season by going 1-4 versus Division 1 teams. The elephant in the room for North Carolina has been their porous defense and that’s especially been the case during the final stretch of regular season action. North Carolina has allowed 31 points or more in their last 6 games versus Division 1 competition. Conversely, West Virginia has scored 34 points or more in 6 of their last 7 games and surpassed 500 yards of total offense on 4 of those occasions. The Mountaineers have overachieved this season by going 8-4 when considering there wasn’t much expected this season. Furthermore, the Mountaineers roster remains virtually intact in comparison to most of this season's bowl participants when it comes to losing players to the transfer portal or opt outs. Give me West Virginia minus points.

Texas State vs. Rice 5:30 PM ET

Game# 237-238

Play On: Over 59.0

This is a Texas State team that’s #17 nationally in scoring offense at 36 points per game. The Bobcats have scored 30 points or more in 8 of 12 games but also allowed 31 points or greater on 8 occasions as well. As a matter of fact, over their final 3 regular season contests Texas State allowed 50.7 points and 438.7 yards per game.

Rice has played 4-1 to the over throughout their previous 5 when the total was 55.0 or greater and there was a combined average of 62.8 points scored per game. The Owls have also allowed 30 points or more 7 times this season. The Owls also average 30 points scored per game this season. Rice began the season with J.T. Daniels, but he was forced to retire from football due to multiple concussions. We’ll most likely see redshirt freshmen A.J. Padgett under center who has thrown for 636 yards and 7 touchdowns versus 3 interceptions in limited playing time. Give me this game to go over the total.

Ravens @ 49ers 8:15 PM ET

Game# 481-482

Play On: 49ers -6.0

The 49ers are 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 as a favorite of 13.0 or less while outscoring those opponents by 22.0 points per game and with an average line of -6.3. As a matter of fact, San Francisco will enter tonight’s matchup on a 6-game win streak. Since the 2021-2022 season began, San Francisco is 8-0 SU & 7-1 ATS at home after winning 4 or more games in a row and with an average victory margin of 19.3 points per game. Baltimore and Lamar Jackson have put together an excellent winning track record against NFC teams. Buth this 49ers squad is a whole different animal. Give me the 49ers minus points.

Cowboys @ Dolphins 4:25 PM ET

Game# 471-472

Play On: Cowboys +1.5

Miami is 0-3 SU&ATS this season versus teams that currently have a winning record and they were outscored by an average of 16.3 points per game. As a matter of fact, the Dolphins are 0-7 SU in their last 7 versus an opponent with a winning record. They haven’t accomplished the feat since beating Buffalo 21-19 during Week 3 of last season. Putting that into perspective, Miami has played 29 consecutive games without beating a team with a winning record.

Dallas is coming off a humbling 31-10 loss at Buffalo in a game they were physically manhandled. I look forward to them coming back this week with a superlative effort. Dallas has gone a perfect 3-0 SU&ATS this season following a loss and won by a substantial margin of 23.3 points per game. Since the start of the 2021-2022 season, Dallas has gone 8-0 SU&ATS immediately following a game in which they allowed 30 points or more with an average victory margin of 16.7 points per game. During that same time span, they’re also 6-0 SU&ATS on the road following a SU loss and won by 15.8 points per game. Give me the Cowboys.

Cardinals @ Bears 4:25 PM ET

Game# 473-474

Play On: Bears -4.0

The Bears are coming off a tough 20-17 loss at Cleveland last Sunday. However, Chicago is 4-1 SU & 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 following a loss. The Chicago defense has forced an impressive 14 turnovers during their previous 4 games. Chicago is 3-3 at home but probably deserves better when considering that they were a +72.7 yards per game in those contests. On the other hand, they’ll be facing an Arizona team that 1-6 SU on the road with a -9.7 point per game differential and were outgained by 83.6 yards per contest. Give me the Bears minus points.

Jaguars @ Buccaneers4:05 PM ET

Game# 469-470

Play On: Buccaneers -130 (ML)

Despite their 8-6 record, this is a Jacksonville team which has committed 24 turnovers this season. Compare that to the 7-7 Bucs who have turned the ball over just 14 times all year and it adds up to this being a key ingredient of us a win. Additionally, during their current 3-game winless streak, Jacksonville allowed 29.3 points and 425.3 yards per game which surely isn’t a recipe for winning.

Jacksonville enters this game on a 3-game losing streak while Tampa Bays has won 3 in a row. Since 1989, NFL home teams that have won their last 3 games versus opponents who lost their previous 3 have gone 104-27 (79.4%) on the money line. The teams on the 3-game win streak outscored their opponents by an average of 10.8 points per game during those 131 contests. Give me the Buccaneers as a money line favorite.

Lions @ Vikings 1:00 PM ET

Game# 467-468

Play On: Over 47.0

Both teams are coming off very good offensive performances. The Vikings racked up 424 yards of total offense in last week’s overtime loss at Cincinnati. The Lions had a sizable 448 yards of total in last Sunday’s 42-17 home win over Denver. Detroit has now gone over the total in their last 5 when the number was 45.0 or greater and there was a combined average of 61.6 points scored per game. The last 3 meetings between these NFC North rivals have gone over the total and with a combined average of 55.0 points scored per game.  Furthermore, since the start of the 2021-2022 season the Vikings have played 5-0 to the over at home in December and with a combined average of 58.4 points scored per game. Giver me this game to go over the total.

Bills @ Chargers 8:00 PM ET

Game# 455-456

Play On: Bills -12.5

The Chargers are a team in disarray and are playing with an interim head coach after the firing of Brandon Staley this past week. The Chargers were embarrassed before a Monday night national televion audience during a 63-21 loss at Las Vegas in a game they trailed 49-0 at halftime. Los Angeles has now lost their last 2, 5 of the last 6, and are now 5-9 (.357) on the season. Furthermore, the Chargers are 0-5 ATS this season as an underdog while being outscored by 14.4 points per game. During their current 1-5 funk in their last 6 they own an atrocious turnover margin of -11. Their only win in that span came at New England (3-11).

Any NFL favorite of 10.5 or greater that has a winning record, versus an opponent that possesses a win percentage of .250 to .400 and has lost 2 or more games in a row, resulted in those favorites going 28-3 ATS (90.3%) since 2014. Give me the Bills minus points.

Duke vs. Troy 12:00 PM ET

Game# 221-222.

Play On: Troy -6.5

This line speaks volumes to me when considering we have a Sun Belt team that’s a touchdown favorite over a Power 5 Conference opponent. Duke started the season 4-0 which included quality wins over Clemson and Northwestern. Then they went 3-5 the rest of the way. Following that 4-0 start they lost a heartbreaker to Notre Dame in which their starting quarterback Riley Leonard was injured. Leonard was never fully healthy the rest of the season and sat out several games. Ironically Leonard has since transferred to Notre Dame. The quality of depth at quarterback behind Leonard leaves plenty to be desired.

Troy started the season 1-2 with their losses coming at Kansas State and versus James Madison (11-1) by a narrow 2-point margin. Since that time, they’ve reeled off 10 wins in a row. Their most recent of those wins came in a 49-23 blowout over Appalachian State in the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game. The Trojan’s defense has been stout all season while allowing a mere 17.2 points and 308.3 yards per game. Troy is +14.0 points and +117.9 yards per game on their way to a stellar 11-2 record. Give me Troy minus points.

Arkansas State vs. Northern Illinois 12:00 PM ET

Game# 223-224

Play On: Over 54.5

Northern Illinois has seen all 6 of their games played away from home go over the total. The last 4 of which averaged a combined 67.3 points scored per game. Arkansas State has amassed 422 yards or more of total offense in 7 of their last 10 games while also scoring 31 points or greater 6 times. Give me this game to go over the total.

Georgia Tech vs. UCF 6:30 PM ET

Game# 219-220

Play On: Georgia Tech +5.5

UCF started the season 3-0 and then proceeded to go 3-6 during their last 9 games. The Golden Knights are 0-5 ATS this season as a favorite of 8.0 or less and were outscored by an average of 7.8 points per game.

Georgia Tech is coming off a 31-23 loss to #6 Georgia in their regular season finale which dropped their record to 6-6. However, the Yellowjackets have gone a perfect 5-0 SU this season immediately following a loss with an average victory margin of 13.0 points per contest, and they were an underdog on 3 of those occasions. Georgia Tech will be facing a UCF team which is averaging 32.3 points scored per game this season. Nonetheless, since the start of last season, Georgia Tech has gone an unscathed 9-0 ATS versus opponents who average 31.0 or more points scored per game. Give me Georgia Tech plus points.

Marshall vs. UTSA 9:00 PM ET

Game# 215-216

Play On: UTSA -10.5

The Roadrunners were the far better team even before the multitude os Marshall players going into the transfer portal. Now they’re the far superior side and the only team that will be UTSA in this matchup is UTSA. Marshall not only has on the field issues but the off the field problems have been equally as troubling. Their current head coach isn’t liked by not only the players but the Thundering Herd’s loyakl fan base as well. There are also no viable sources for NIL money. Hence the inordinate number of players jumping ship once the regular season concluded. Speaking of the regular season, Marshall began the 2023 campaign 4-0 and has gone a dismal 2-6 since. The Thundering Herd are 0-5 SU&ATS this season as an underdog of 2.0 or greater and were outscored by an average of 17.0 points per game.

UTSA began the season 1-3 and then proceeded to win 7 of their last 8 contests with their lone defeat coming against eventual AAC champion Tulane 29-16 on the road. The key to UTSA winning and covering in this spot is 7th year senior quarterback Frank Harris Jr. who when healthy like he is now makes the Roadrunners a very difficult offense to defend. UTSA is 8-2 this season with Harris as their starting quarterback. UTSA has gone 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 14.0 or less while outscoring those opponents by an average of 22.0 points per game. Give me UTSA minus points.

Eagles @ Seahawks 8:15 PM ET

Game# 327-328

Play On: Seahawks +3.5

Philadelphia star quarterback Jalen Hurs is listed as questionable as he’s been battling an illness the last few days. The Eagles are 1-2 in their last 3. They’re lucky not to be 0-3 in those previous 3 if not for a 61-yard field goal by Jake Elliott on the last play of regulation time which sent the game to overtime and enabled them to escape with 37-34 win over Buffalo. The Eagles defense is a major concern of late. During those previously mentioned 3 contests they allowed 33 points or more on each occasion and an alarmingly high 451.7 yards per game.

The Seahawks have lost 4 straight and are now 6-7 but still very march alive for a possible NFC Wild Card spot. It must be noted, those previous 4 losses were to San Francisco (11-3) twice, Dallas (10-4), and a Rams (7-7) team that’s won 4 of their last 5. Additionally, Seattle was an underdog in all 4 of those losses and covered on 3 of those occasions.

Any NFL team like Seattle that’s facing an opponent like Philadelphia that’s allowing 24 or more points per game and gave up 30 points or greater in each of their previous 4 games, resulted in those teams like Seattle going 39-9 SU (81.3%) since the start of the 2019-2020 season. Since this money line betting angle supports the underdog in this matchup it takes on added significance. Give me the Seahawks plus points.

Old Dominion vs. Western Kentucky 2:30 PM ET

Game# 201-202

Play On: Old Dominion -6.0

Western Kentucky will be without senior starting quarterback Austin Reed and several of their starting offensive linemen. Old Dominion has faced 8 bowl teams during regular season action and that doesn’t even include James Madison (11-1) that was ineligible to play in postseason action. They went 4-5 in those contests. The monarchs finished regular season play with wins over Georgia Southern and Georgia State to become bowl eligible and will surely be motivated to play the Famous Toastery Bowl at Jerry Richardson Stadium in Charlotte which is the home of the NFL Carolina Panthers. Give me Old Dominion minus points.

Ravens @ Jaguars 8:20 PM ET

Game# 329-330

Play On: Over 41.5

The weather conditions won’t be ideal, but it won’t automatically make this a low scoring affair. The Ravens offense has been humming which is evidenced by them scoring 31 points or more in 6 of their last 7 games. The Ravens are the #1 running team in the NFL so far this season and are averaging 157.1 yards per game. Baltimore is also #4 in scoring offense at 27.2 points per game. The Ravens have played 5-2 to the over during their previous 7 contests and with a combined average of 52.1 points scored per game.

Jacksonville enters this week #11 in total offense, #9 in passing offense, and #9 in scoring offense. Additionally, throughout their previous 4 contests the Jags have averaged 29.0 points scored and 375.8 yards gained per game. Jacksonville has also allowed 26.8 yards and 380.8 yards per contest throughout their previous 5 games. Jacksonville has played 4-0 to the over at home this season when the number was 44.0 or less and there was a combined average of 54.8 points scored per game. Give me this game to go over the total.

Cowboys @ Bills 4:25 PM ET

Game# 325-326

Play On: Bills -124

Dallas enters this contest on a red-hot 5-game win streak which has improved their season record to 10-3. However, their home/away splits are worth noting. The Cowboys are 7-0 at home but a mediocre 3-3 on the road. Furthermore, their 3 road wins have come over the Chargers, Jets, and Carolina who have a current combined record of 11-29 (.275). They also lost at Arizona (3-10) as a double-digit favorite when the Cardinals starting quarterback was out due to injury. The Bills are coming off a win at Kansas City last week to improve to 7-6 which improved their postseason chances. Nevertheless, they’re still on the outside looking in while being imperative they continue to play with the urgency and desperation exhibited last week at Arrowhead Stadium. Buffalo has vastly underachieved this season but their 6 losses have come by just a combined 26 points and none of those was greater than 6 points. That further clarifies why a 7-6 team is favorite over an opponent who’s 10-3. The weather conditions on Sunday will call on both teams to run the ball more than they’re accustomed to. The Bills have run the ball very well over their last 4 contests while averaging 153.3 yards per game and 4.7 yards per rushing attempt.

The Bills have also limited their opponents to less than 100 yards rushing in 5 of their last 7 games. Throughout the previous 3 seasons, Buffalo is 19-6 (76%) as a money line home favorite. Buffalo has averaged 408.3 yards of total offense per game over their previous 3 contests. Buffalo is a perfect 5-0 SU at home since the start of the 2021-2022 season after averaging 400 yards or more of total offense during their previous 3 games and outscored their opponents by a substantial 20.8 points per outing. Give me Buffalo for a money line wager.

Bears @ Browns 1:00 PM ET

Game# 309-310

Play On: Browns -2.5

The Bears are getting a lot of love from bettors this week after going 3-1 in their last 4 and covering on each occasion. However, let’s not get carried away. Cleveland is 6-1 at home this season with their only loss coming to Baltimore in a game that starting quarterback Deshaun Watson was a late scratch and was replaced by rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson who was brutal. With Watson gone for the year due to injury, the Browns signed veteran Joe Flacco off the couch and in 3 has played more than respectable. Additionally, the Browns defense has been sensational in their 7 contests at home while allowing a mere 12.6 points and 192.4 yards per game. Give me the Browns minus points.

Buccaneers @ Packers 1:00 PM ET

Game# 313-314

Play On: Buccaneers +3.5

It will be unseasonably warm in Green Bay with little chance of rain and winds below 10 MPH. That’s good news and a pleasant surprise for a warm weather team like Tampa Bay playing at Green Bay in December. The key to the Bucs covering and giving them a strong possibility of winning this game outright will be their ability to run the ball effectively. Hence, opening up plenty of favorable play action pass opportunities for Baker Mayfield and company. Green Bay’s run defense has been brutal despite them making a midseason postseason push. During their previous 5 contests, the Green Bay defense has allowed 170.4 yards per game on the ground and an alarmingly high 6.1 yards per rushing attempt. The Bucs running game was anemic for most of this season. However, during their last 3 outings they’ve rushed for 133.7 yards per game and averaged a healthy 4.7 yards per attempt. Tampa Bay enters this week in a 3-way tie atop the NFC South Division. The Bucs have been very profitable on the road this season while going 6-1 ATS. Green Bay had their bubble burst and 3-game win streak halted in last Monday’s 24-22 road loss to the New York Giants. Give me the Buccaneers plus points.

Texans @ Titans 1:00 PM ET

Game# 315-316

Play On: Texans +3.5

Yes, C.J. Stroud will not play for Houston this week after suffering a concussion during last Sunday’s 30-6 road loss to the Jets. However, his backup Davis Mills was the Texans starter the previous 2 seasons and is more than capable of giving them an reasonable opportunity to win and especially so against a below average team like Tennessee. You may be surprised to know that Houston has gone an extremely profitable 6-1 SU&ATS in division road game since the start of the 2021-2022 season. That includes a 37-17 blowout win over Jacksonville in their only division road game this season. Keep in mind, that means Davis Mills was 5-1 SU&ATS as a starter in division road games the past 2 seasons. Since Week 3, Houston is 4-0 SU following a loss. Tennessee is coming off last Monday’s huge 28-27 upset win over Miami in a game they were a 13.0-point underdog. Nonetheless, the Titans haven’t won 2 in a row all season and are 0-4 SU&ATS following a win. Lastly, the visiting teams are 5-0 SU in the last 5 games between these division rivals. Give me the Texans plus points.

California vs. Texas Tech 9:15 PM ET

Game# 211-212

Play On: California +3.0

When it comes to minor bowl games such as this, it’s just a matter of what team is more motivated. I firmly believe that the team will be California in this matchup. There were high expectations for Texas Tech heading into the season being that they had 17 returning starters including all 11 on offense from a team that went 8-5 the year before. But they finished regular season action with a very uninspiring 6-6 record to barely qualify for postseason action. On the other hand, not much was expected from California heading into the year and it came as no surprise that they were 3-6 through their first 9 games. However, the finished their regular season slate by going 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 including a pair of road wins to close out the campaign over Stanford and UCLA which made them bowl eligible. I look for an inspired effort from the Golden Bears in this one. They key to victory will be California being able to run the ball with a high degree of success. Throughout their last 3 contests, Texas Tech allowed 207 yards or more on the ground during each occasion, and opponents averaged an alarmingly high 5.9 yards per rushing attempt. Cal averaged an impressive 182.7 yards per game on the ground this season and a healthy 4.7 yards per rushing attempt. Give me California plus points.

Boise State @ UCLA 7:30 PM ET

Game# 209-210

Play On: UCLA -5.5

This game will almost be like a home game for UCLA with it being played at So-Fi Stadium in Los Angeles. Boise State’s starting quarterback Taylen Green entered the transfer portal following the Broncos MWC Championship Game win over UNLV. The Broncos are set to start freshmen C.J. Tiller at quarterback who hasn’t thrown a pass this season. Boise State will rely on their ground attack and star running back Ashton Jeanty who ran for 1262 yards this season. However, he’ll be facing a UCLA defense that was 5th nationally in rushing defense at 68.6 yards per game. The Bruins starting cornerbacks entered the transfer portal, but I would be more concerned if Boise State had a more experienced signal caller than C.J. Tiller. Give me UCLA minus points.

Steelers @ Colts 4:30 PM ET

Game# 305-306

Play On: Steelers +2.0

The Pittsburgh quarterback situation leaves a lot to be desired with backup Mitchell Trubisky under center. However, the Steelers running game will be the difference in this matchup. During their previous 7 contests the Colts have allowed an alarmingly high 147.0 yards rushing per game in addition to 4.6 yards per attempt. Conversely, throughout their previous 6 contests the Steelers have rushed for 151.3 yards per game and 4.9 yards per attempt. The Steelers ability to run the ball effectively will set up some favorable play action passing opportunities for Trubisky and take a huge load off his shoulders.

Furthermore, the Steelers are 2-0 SU&ATS this season as a non-division away underdog. Additionally, the Colts are 5-2 this season in neutral site and away games but a poor 2-4 at home. Since the 2021-2022 NFL season began, Pittsburgh is 7-2 SU&ATS on the road when the point-spread is between +3.0 and -3.0. On the other hand, during that identical time span, the Colts are 4-8 SU&ATS at home when the point-spread is +3.0 to -3.0. Once again since the 2021-2022 season consummated, Pittsburgh is 5-1 SU&ATS as a road underdog of 3.0 or less. Give me the Steelers plus points.

Miami-Ohio vs. Appalachian State 3:30 PM ET

Game# 205-206

Play On: Appalachian State -6.5

This opening line and the ensuing movement speak volumes to me. We have an Appalachian State team who was blown out in the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game by Troy as currently better than a touchdown favorite the MAC champion Miami-Ohio Red Hawks. Truth be told, the Sun Belt was far and away better than the MAC this season from top to bottom. There were 10 of 12 Sun Belt teams that were bowl eligible and the MAC was extremely top heavy and with a lot of bad teams. Despite that loss to Troy, the Mountaineers enter the bowl season 8-5 and with their other 4 losses coming by 7 points or fewer. Miami was terrific defensively during conference play while allowing just 12.0 points per game. However, in 3 non-conference games versus FBS opponents the Red Hawks surrendered 30.0 points and 445.7 yards per game. The Redhawk’s offense leaves much to be desired. Throughout their previous 6 contests they averaged only 21.5 points scored and 281.0 yards gained per game. They’re going to be facing a Mountaineers offense that averages 34.8 points scored and 452.2 yards gained per game. Give me Appalachian State minus points.

Vikings @ Bengals 1:00 PM ET

Game# 303-304

Play On: Bengals -3.0

Both teams have lost their starting quarterbacks for the season due to injury. However, I give a huge edge to Cincinnati when it comes to the backup quarterback situation. Jake Browning will be making his 4th start since taking over for Joe Burrow. During his first 3 starts he’s been nothing short of superb with all be considered while completing 79.3% for 856 yards and 4 touchdowns and ran for 2 scores. The Bengals are coming off a pair of wins over the Colts 34-14 and 34-31 at Jacksonville as a 10.0-point underdog. Conversely, the Vikings escaped with a 3-0 win at Las Vegas last Sunday. It was the 2nd straight listless offensive performance for Minnesota who 2 weeks ago lost 12-10 at home to Chicago. Cincinnati is 4-1 in non-division home game this season. Cincinnati has also been very good at protecting the football this season while committing just 11 turnovers through 13 games. That hasn’t been the case for Minnesota who has committed 24 turnovers this season. Finally, under current head coach Zack Taylor, Cincinnati has gone an extremely profitable 8-1 SU&ATS in regular season games 13 through 17. Give me the Bengals minus points.

Eagles @ Cowboys 8:20 PM ET

Game# 127-128

Play On: Cowboys -3.5

Let’s start with this. The Cowboys are averaging 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS at home while averaging a massive 4141.0 points scored and 438.0 yards gained per game. Conversely, the Eagles have allowed 29.4 points and 433.0 yards per game throughout their previous 4 contests. The stout Dallas defense had an uncharacteristically bad game during last week’s 41-35 home win over Seattle in which they allowed the Seahawks to rack up 406 yards of total offense. Since the start of the 2021-2022 season Dallas has gone 10-0 SU&ATS after a contest in which they allowed 400 yards or more and won by an average of 17.5 points per game. During that identical time span, Dallas went 7-0 SU&ATS following a game in which they allowed 30 points or more and won by an average of 15.1 points per contest and held their opponents to a mere 14.9 points scored per outing. The Cowboys will also be playing with revenge stemming from a 28-23 loss at Philadelphia earlier this season. Dallas deserved a better fate in that contest when considering they outgained the Eagles in total yards by a margin of 406-292. Give me the Cowboys minus points.

Broncos @ Chargers 4:25 PM ET

Game# 123-124

Play On: Chargers -140

Denver is coming off a 21-16 loss at Houston which ended their 5-game win streak and dropped their season record to 6-6. Keeping that 5-game win streak into perspective, the Broncos had an abnormal turnover margin of +13 during those contests. During their other 7 games in which they went 2-5 and had a turnover margin of -7. The Chargers have only committed 2 turnovers or more in a game just twice this season. Despite having a win percentage of .500, Denver has been outscored by an average of 4.3 points and outgained by 86.3 yards per game. The Broncos are also 2-3 on the road and have been outscored by 12.2 points and outgained by 171.0 yards per game. The Chargers are much better than their current 5-7 record indicates when considering they’re outscoring opponents by 1.4 points per game.

Any NFL money line home favorite that’s playing after Game 8 that averages between 95 to 125 yards rushing per game, and they were outgained by 100 rushing yards or more in their previous game, versus an opponent like Denver that allows between 125 to 150 rushing yards per game, resulted in those money line home favorites going 38-7 (84.4%) since 1983. The average money line for those 45 favorites was -143.6 and they outscored the underdogs by 8.9 points per game. Give me the Chargers as a money line favorite.

Bills @ Chiefs 4:25 PM ET

Game# 125-126

Play On: Bills +1.0

This point-spread jumped off the screen when I first looked with the Chiefs only opening as a 3.0-point home favorite. My eyes opened even wider this morning when I saw this line drop to 1.0 or a pick depending on the sportsbook. After all, Buffalo is 6-6 and the defending world champion Chiefs are 8-4. Especially since Kansas City has been so good at home and extremely tough to beat following a loss under Andy Reid. The Chiefs are 20-4 SU in their last 24 at home. However, 2 of those 4 losses came versus Buffalo. Additionally, the Chiefs are 10-0 SU in their last 10 and 15-1 SU during their previous 16 immediately following a loss. The flip side to that equation is that Buffalo is 5-1 SU under head coach Sean McDermott following a scheduled bye week. The Bills are also much better than their 6-6 record with all those 6 defeats coming by a combined 26 points and each loss came by 6 points or fewer. Not to mention, 2 of those setbacks came in overtime. Buffalo will be in desperation and urgency mode knowing they have virtually no more room for error when it comes to making the playoffs. Give me the Bills in this one.

Vikings @ Raiders 4:05 PM ET

Game# 121-122

Play On: Vikings -2.5

After going through a stretch in which they went 5-0 SU&ATS, the Viking have lost their last 2 contests and by just a combined 3 points. They shot themselves in the foot in both losses by committing 7 turnover which were mostly the fault of starting quarterback Joshua Dobs. After much speculation earlier this week, Dobbs will remain the starter and will gladly welcome back star wide receiver Justin Jefferson back from an injury that forced him to miss 7 games. The Raiders (4-8) are a mess, and their offense has been anemic while scoring 17 points or fewer in 10 of 12 games. The Vikings are 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS on the road this season when facing teams like the Raiders who currently have a win percentage of .500 or worse. Their lone SU loss in that sequence was 21-20 at Denver in which they led for much of the game. The Vikings defense is a very underrated unit which has allowed only 20.2 points and 320.3 yards per game. Give me the Vikings minus points.

Lions @ Bears 1:00 PM ET

Game# 109-110

Play On: Lions -3.0

The Bears have received a lot of love this week with regards to public betting. I am not one of those individuals. Yes, the Lions needed a late 26-14 deficit in their first meeting against Chicago by scoring 17 unanswered points in the last 3:05 to win 31-26. Let’s keep things in proper perspective, the Lions turned the ball over 4 times in that contest and had a -3 turnover margin and were still able to win. The Lions are 4-0 SU&ATS as a road favorite this season and with an average victory margin of 9.0 points per game. Conversely, the Bears are a miserable 0-7 ATS in their last 7 and 1-10 SU&ATS during their previous 11 as a division home underdog.

The Lions are coming off last Sunday’s 33-28 win at New Orleans in which they covered as a 5.0-point favorite. The Bears are coming off a 12-10 win at Minnesota in a game they closed as a 3.0-point underdog. NFL division road favorites that are coming off a non-division road ATS favorite cover, versus an opponent that’s playing with revenge and is coming off a game in which they allowed 20 points or fewer, resulted in those road favorites going 11-0 ATS since 1984. Those road favorites won those 11 contests by a decisive margin of 17.5 points per game. Give me the Lions minus points.

Patriots @ Steelers 8:15 PM ET

Game# 101-102

Play On: Steelers -5.5

The Steelers are coming off a 24-10 loss to Arizona in a game they closed as a 6.5-point home favorite. However, Pittsburgh has yet to lose 2 straight games this season. As a matter of fact, the Steelers are 4-0 SU&ATS this season following a loss. New England is coming off a 6-0 home loss to the Los Angeles Chargers. The Patriots have now gone 0-5 SU&ATS in their last 5 games. Since winning their road season opener versus the Jets, New England is 0-4 SU&ATS in true away games and lost by an average of 14.0 points per contest.

Pittsburgh is at a +10-turnover margin for the season while New England is -9 in that category. Since the start of the 2021-2022 NFL season, Pittsburgh is 7-0 SU&ATS at home following a game in which they scored 14 points or fewer. During that identical time span, New England is 4-10 ATS as an underdog and 2-8 SU/1-9 ATS following 2 straight games in which they scored 17 points or fewer.

Any NFL favorite of 8.0 or less with a winning record, versus an opponent like New England that’s coming off 3 losses in a row in which they scored 7 points or fewer on each occasion, resulted in those favorites going 8-0 ATS since 1980, and with an average victory margin of 13.9 points per game. Give me the Steelers minus points.

Chiefs @ Packers 8:20 PM ET

Game# 471-472

Play On: Over 42.5

For starters, the weather in Green Bay shouldn’t be a factor with game time temperatures predicted to be about 34 degrees with light wins of 5 to 7 MPH and a very low probability of any precipitation.  The Packers offense has shown dramatic signs of improvement over their last 3 contests while averaging 23.7 points scored and 391.0 yards gained per game. During that same 3-game stretch, the Packers defense allowed a worrisome 165.0 yards per outing. The Chiefs will be able to run the ball effectively on Sunday night which sets up the best play action passer in the NFL Patrick Mahome for a huge day. Since the start of the 2021-2022 NFL season, Kansas City has played 6-1 to the over on the road when the total was between 42.0 to 49.0 and there was a combined average of 55.4 points scored per game. Additionally, the Chies went over the number in both games this season when the total was 43.0 or less. Give me this game to go over the total.

Browns @ Rams 4:25 PM ET

Game# 469-470

Play On: Over 40.5

The Browns have played 5-0-1 to the under at home this season but 5-0 to the over on the road. Those 5 road contests had a combined average of 54.8 points scored per game. Statistically the Browns are extremely good defensively. But those numbers are askew when comparing their home and away splits. The same can be said for their offense production on the road which has been far better than compared to that on the road. The Rams offense is coming off a confidence building performance during last Sunday’s 37-14 blowout win at Arizona. They massed 457 yards of total offense in that contest with a very balanced attach which sw them gain 228 rushing and 229 passing. Give me this game to go over the total.

Panthers @ Buccaneers 4:05 PM ET

Game# 461-462

Play On: Buccaneers -3.5

Carolina is an awful 1-10 and has been an underdog in all 11 games this season but still is a money-draining 1-8-2 ATS. Furthermore, they’re 0-7 SU and 0-5-2 ATS when facing fellow NFC teams. Carolina has scored 15 points or fewer and gained 275 yards or less during each of their previous 5 games. The Panthers have failed to force a turnover in each of their last 3 games. They have a -7-turnover margin for the season while Tampa Bay is +5 in that category. The Bucs are a more than respectable 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS this season when facing a team that currently has a win percentage of .500 or worse. Despite their 4-7 season record, Tampa Bay is just 1.0 game behind New Orleans and Atlanta for the NFC South Division lead. This will only be the 4th time the Bucs are a favorite this season and they covered 2 of the previous 3 in that role. Give me the Buccaneers minus points.

Lions @ Saints 1:00 PM ET

Game# 453-454

Play On: Saints +4.0

The Lions have committed 7 turnovers in their last 2 games. During those contests they needed a miracle comeback to beat Chicago 31-26 and lost to Green Bay 29-22 as an 8.5-point favorite with both played at home. The Saints are coming off a disappointing 24-15 road loss as a 1.0-point favorite at Atlanta that dropped their season record to 5-6. However, New Orleans is in a tie for 1st place with Atlanta in a weak NFC South Division and has plenty of incentive heading into this match against an 8-3 Lions tea.

Any NFL home underdog of 5.5 or less with a losing record that’s coming off an away favorite SU loss and they’re playing after Game 7, versus an opponent coming off a SU&ATS loss, resulted in those home underdogs going 9-0 SU&ATS since 1998. The home underdogs won those 8 contests by an average of 8.4 points per game.

Falcons @ Jets 1:00 PM ET

Game# 455-456

Play On: Atlanta -130 (ML)

The Jets have gone an abysmal 0-4 SU&ATS in their last 4 and were outscored by a decisive margin of 18.0 points per game. New York has been anemic offensively over their previous 5 games while scoring 13 points or fewer on each occasion. Conversely, Atlanta has scored 23 points or more in each of their last 4 games and amassed 396 yards or more of total offense in 4 of the previous 7 contests.

Atlanta is coming off a 24-15 division win as a 1.0-point home underdog versus New Orleans. NFL non-conference money line home favorites coming off a SU underdog win versus a division opponent resulted in those money line favorites going 31-3 (91.2%). Those money line favorites outscored those 34 opponents by an average of 12.1 points per game. Give me the Falcons as a money line favorite.

Colts @ Titans 1:00 PM ET

Game# 461-462

Play On: Colts -117 (ML)

Tennessee is coming off last week’s 17-10 home win over a 1-10 Carolina Panthers team. The bad news is that the Titans are 0-3 SU&ATS this season following a win. The Titans offense has struggled mightily this season while scoring 17 points or fewer in each of the last 4, 6 of the previous 7, and 8 of 11 games this season. The Colts are 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 games and allowed just 13.0 points and 304.3 yards per contest. Indianapolis has also gone 4-1 SU&ATS this season in neutral site and away games. It’s also worth noting, the Colts Gardner Minshew is 5-0 SU&ATS in his career team starts as a road favorite with his teams winning by an average of 20.6 points per game. Give me the Colts as a money line favorite.

Dolphins @ Commanders 1:00 PM ET

Game# 463-464

Play On: Over 49.5

Even the casual NFL fan is aware of how explosive the Miami Dolphins can be. This appears to be a prime spot for them to shine against a porous Washington defense which has allowed 29 points sor more in 8 of their 11 games this season. The Commanders offense has averaged an impressive 407.8 yards gained per game over their previous 5 contests. The only reason they scored just an average of 21.2 points per contest during that stretch is they committed 11 turnovers. They’ll be facing a Dolphins defense that allowed 27.3 points per game in contests played on the road or at a neutral site. Give me this game to go over the total.

Iowa @ Michigan 8:00 PM ET

Game# 323-324

Play On: Iowa +22.5

Let me start by stating the obvious, Michigan is unequivocally the far superior team in this matchup as this current point-spread indicates. I just think this sets up for a potential flat spot for the undefeated Wolverines as it applies to covering this big a number. Michigan comes off a huge emotional when over bitter rival and then undefeated Ohio State this past Saturday. Awaiting them is a semifinal game in the College Football 4-team Playoffs. Sandwiched between is the formalityof playing in the Big 10 Championship game in which they’re installed as a better than 3-touchdown favorite against an offensively inept Iowa (10-2) team that averages a mere 18.0 points scored per contest. However, the Hawkeyes defense has been nothing short of excellent while holding opponents to 16 points or fewer in 11 of 12 games. Iowa’s defense will keep them in this contest for a long period of time and play a big part in staying inside of this huge number. Give me Iowa plus points.

Alabama vs. Georgia 4:00 PM ET

Game# 317-318

Play On: Alabama +5.5

Stop the press, Alabama is an underdog for just the 8th time since 2008 and they went a very profitable 5-2 SU&ATS in their previous 7 and all with Nick Saban as their head coach. Ironically enough 4 of those 7 games were against Georgia and they 3-1 SU&ATS in those contests. If the Crimson Tide has any chance of reaching the College Football Playoffs they absolutely must beat Georgia on Saturday. One of those wins came in the 2021 SEC Championship Game when they knocked off Georgia 41-34 as a 6.0-point underdog then only lose to the Bulldogs 5 weeks later in the National Championship Game 5 weeks later. That defeat put a halt to Alabama winning 7 straight over Georgia. This game goes right down to the wire. Give me Alabama plus points.

Oklahoma State @ Texas 12:00 PM ET

Game# 309-310

Play On: Texas -14.5

Texas’ chances to reach the College Football 4-Team Playoffs are very real. Their first order of business is taking care of Oklahoma State, or every other scenario is moot without that transpiring. It wouldn’t hurt to have some style points while doing so which is namely winning by a large margin. A narrow victory will likely not be good enough to sway the committee. The Longhorns will also be playing with revenge stemming from a 41-34 loss at Oklahoma State last October. Oklahoma State had an impressive 5-0 SU&ATS streak earlier this season which included upsets of Kansas, Kansas State, and Oklahoma. Since then, they’ve gone 2-1 with an inexplicable 45-3 blowout loss to UCF, allowed Houston (4-8) to give them all they can handle in a 43-30 win, and then last week needed overtime to beat BYU (5-7) at home. They also were blown out at home by South Alabama earlier this season. Give me Texas minus points.

Any College Football favorite of 3.0 or greater that’s playing with revenge in a conference championship game like Texas will be doing, resulted in those favorites going 7-0 ATS and with an average victory margin of 18.9 points per game. Give me Texas minus points.

Oregon vs. Washington 8:00 PM ET

Game# 305-306

Play On: Oregon -9.5

This line jumped right off the screen at me last Sunday night. Oregon opened as a 7.5-point favorite, and it was quickly moved to 9.5 with the game being played on a neutral field in Las Vegas. Keep in mind, the Ducks sustained their only loss of the year earlier this season in a 36-33 heartbreaking setback at Washington. The Ducks missed a 38-yard field goal with no time left in that contest and deserved a better fate when considering they outgained Washington is that contest by a wide margin of 126 yards while also not committing a turnover. The Huskies are 12-0 but have won their last 8 games by just 10 points or fewer. Washington’s defense and received acclaim for being so good in the 4th quarter of games down the stretch. However, the Huskies stop unit has allowed 500 yards or more on 3 occasions this season which included 545 versus Oregon. Oregon is a terrific 9-2 ATS as a favorite this season. Oregon has amassed 500 yards or more of total offense in 9 of their 12 games. Furthermore, over their previous 4 contests the Ducks are averaging 44.7 points scored and 562.0 yards gained per game.

Since 1993, favorites of 3.0 or more in conference championship games that are playing with revenge went 7-0 SU&ATS. The favorites average line in those contests was -9.1 and their margin of victory came by 18.9 points per game. All 7 wins came by 14 points or greater. Give me Oregon minus points as my College Football Conference Championship Game of the Year.

Seahawks @ Cowboys 8:15 PM ET

Game# 303-304

Play On: Over 47.00

Dallas is 5-0 at home and averaging a massive 41.0 points scored per game. Since the start of the 2021-2022 NFL season. Dallas has played 8-1 to the over at home when the total was between 42.5 to 49.0 with a combined average of 61.3 points scored per game. The Cowboys have scored 33 points or more in each of their previous 3 games. Dallas has played 6-0 to the over throughout the past 3 season following 2 consecutive contests in which they scored 25 points or more and there was a combined average of 60.7 points scored per occurrence.

Any NFL away team like Seattle with a total of 42.5 to 49.0 that has a winning record, versus an opponent like Dallas with a win percentage of between .600 to .750 that’s coming off 3 straight covers as a favorite, resulted in those games playing 13-1 to the over since 2014. Give me this game to go over the total.

Bears @ Vikings 8:15 PM ET

Game# 273-274

Play On: Over 43.5

Let’s start with tonight’s quarterbacks. During the past 5 seasons, Joshua Dobbs has made 9 home starts and those games played 7-1-1 to the over with an averaged combined points score of 53.4 per contest. Justin Fields has made 7 starts this season and Chicago played 6-1 to the over in those contests and there was a combined average of 51.6 points scored per game. Both quarterbacks have the ability to extend plays with their mobility and are a legitimate threat to take off and run with positive results.

Since the 2021-2022 NFL season began, Minnesota has played 8-0 to the over at home when it’s after Game 8 and there was a combined average of 56.1 points scored per game. The Bears have seen each of their last 4 played in Minnesota go over the total and with a combined average of 49.7 points scored per game. Give me this game to go over the total.

Ravens @ Chargers 8:20 PM ET

Game# 271-272

Play On: Chargers +3.0

The Ravens are coming off a 34-20 home win over the Bengals. However, that win came at a heavy expense as they lost star tight end Mark Andrews to an injury that will keep him out for an indefinite period. Additionally, the Ravens are 0-4 SU&ATS over the past 3 seasons following a division win.

The Chargers are coming off a 23-20 loss at Green Bay as a 3.0-point favorite. That dropped their season record to an extremely disappointing 4-6. Nonetheless, it’s a deceiving 4-6 when considering they’ve now suffered 5 losses by 3 points or fewer. Throughout the past 3 seasons, the Chargers are 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS after Game 2 and following a SU favorite loss.

Since the start of the 2018-2019 NFL season, underdogs of 5.5 or less who are playing after Game 8 that possess a losing record and are coming off a SU favorite loss, and they’re facing an opponent with a win percentage of .333 or better, resulted in those underdogs going a spotless 11-0 ATS. Those underdogs of 5.5 or less also won 10 of those 11 contests SU. Give me the Chargers plus points as my Sunday NFL Top Play.

Bills @ Eagles 4:25 PM ET

Game# 267-268

Play On: Bills +3.0

When you look at the raw data on this game, you have to question how Philadelphia is only a small favorite. After all, the Eagles are the defending NFC champion and are currently 9-1. On the other hand, Buffalo has vastly underachieved this season thus far on the way to a 6-5 record. However, the Bills 5 losses came by just a combined 23 points. Buffalo is coming off a 32-6 blowout home win over the Jets.

 The Eagles are 4-0 at home but with only a +7.0 point per game differential. As a matter of fact, 3 of those 4 wins came by 6 points or fewer. The Eagle defense has been a bit of concern over their last 3 contests while allowing 23.7 points and 404.6 yards per game. Over the past 3 seasons, the Bills are 5-0 SU on the road in Games 10 through 13 and with an average victory margin of 15.2 points per game.

Any NFL non-division away team playing in Games 10 through 13 who are coming off a division win by 10 points or more, and they’ve won 14 or more of their last 32 away games, resulted in those away teams going a perfect 9-0 SU&ATS since 2019. The average victory margin in those 9 wins came by an average of 16.6 points per game. Give me Buffalo plus points.

Jaguars @ Texans 1:00 PM ET

Game# 251-252

Play On: Jaguars -125

Jacksonville will be out to revenge a 37-20 upset loss to Houston in Week 2. They outgained the Texans 404-366 in that loss but were -2 in the turnover department. This time around they’ll be facing a Texans team which has committed 3 turnovers in each of their previous 2 games. The Jaguars are a perfect 5-0 SU&ATS on the road or a neutral field this season with an average victory margin of 9.6 points per game.

Any NFL away team that has a point-spread of between +3.0 to -11.0 who’s playing between Game 5 through 15, and they’re coming off a division home win in which they scored 31 points or more and covered by 10.0-points or greater., resulted in those away teams going 11-0 SU&ATS since 2019. The average victory margin during those 11 wins came by 12.3 points per game. Give me the Jaguars as a money line favorite.

Buccaneers @ Colts 1:00 PM ET

Game# 253-254

Play On: Colts -135

The Colts are coming off 2 straight wins over New England 10-6 and Carolina 27-13. They’re also coming off their bye week and will be well rested. The Colts have gone a perfect 4-0 SU&ATS during the past 3 seasons after allowing 14 points or fewer in each of their previous 2 game and won by 8.3 points per contest. Tampa Bay has lost their last 3 road games.

Any regular season money line home favorite that won each of their previous 2 games and are playing after Game 9, versus an opponent that has a win percentage of .818 or worse, resulted in those home favorites going 22-1 SU (95.6%) since 1993 and 18-0 SU since 2002. Give me the Colts as a money line favorite.

Saints @ Falcons 1:00 PM ET

Game# 261-262

Play On: Saints -123

The Atlanta Falcons are 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 games and were a favorite on each occasion. Those defeats dropped their season record to 4-6 (.400). The latest of which was a 25-23 setback at Arizona. Since 2018 the Falcons are an abysmal 1-12 SU immediately following a loss by 3 points or fewer and includes 0-4 SU if they were playing at home. New Orleans has gone 6-1 SU in their last 7 and 9-2 SU during their previous 9 games versus Atlanta. They’re also 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 at Atlanta. The Saints are just 5-5 but possess a very good turnover margin of +6 for the season.

Any NFL money line favorite like the Saints who possess a win percentage of .285 or better, versus an opponent like the Falcons who are coming off 2 consecutive SU favorite losses, and they possess a win percentage of between .400 to .490, resulted in those money line favorites going 21-1 (95.4%) since 1994. Give me the Saints as a money line favorite.

Florida State @ Florida 7:00 PM ET

Game# 153-154

Play On: Florida State -6.5

Both teams lost their starting quarterbacks to injury last season and will go with backups under center on Saturday. However, the Florida State defense is far superior to Florida’s stop unit. The Gators have allowed 41.5 points and 537.2 yards per game during their previous 5 contests. Additionally, Florida has lost 4 straight since starting the season 5-2. Florida State is allowing just 13.7 points and 278.7 yards per contest throughout their previous 7 games. I look for the Seminoles to have a high degree of success running the ball in this game when considering Florida has allowed 214.0 yards per game rushing over their previous 5. Give me Florida State minus points.

BYU @ Oklahoma State 3:30 PM ET

Game# 215-216

Play On: Oklahoma State -16.0

BYU started the season. However, since that time they’ve lost 4 straight and by an average of 24.5 points per game. Additionally, the Cougars are 0-4 SU&ATS in conference road games this season and with another sizable loss margin of 25.7 points per contest. Oklahoma State has won 6 of their last 7, including quality home underdog upset wins over Kansas (7-4), #19 Kansas State (8-3), and #13 Oklahoma (10-2). During those conference home wins the Cowboys averaged 35.0 points scored and 512.3 yards gained per game. Give me Oklahoma State minus points.

Ohio State @ Michigan 12:00 PM ET

Game# 141-142

Play On: Michigan -3.0

Since the start of the 2021 season, Michigan has gone a perfect 21-0 SU at home. That includes 3-0 SU&ATS as an underdog or favorite of 7.0 or less with an average victory margin of 19.7 points per game. Michigan has beaten Ohio State in emphatic fashion during the last 2 meetings by scores of 45-23 and 42-27. Michigan went without a turnover committed in 7 of 11 games this season and are a +11 turnover margin for the year. Ohio State has forced only 10 turnovers in their first 11 games. So, there’s very little chance that Michigan will be themselves on Saturday. The total in this contest is currently 46.5. Since the start of last season, Michigan is 6-0 SU&ATS whenever the total was 42.5 to 49.0 and with an average victory margin of 32.6 points per game. Give me Michigan minus points.

Dolphins @ Jets 3:00 PM ET

Game# 113-114

Play On: Jets +10.0

The Jets are coming off a 32-6 blowout loss at Buffalo and didn’t come close to covering as a 10.0-point away underdog. That defeat dropped their season record to 4-6 (.400). They’ll be playing the AFC East Division leading Miami Dolphins who are 7-3.

NFL division home underdogs of between 1.5 to 13.0 with a win percentage of .636 or worse that are playing after Game 3, and they’re coming off an away underdog ATS loss in which they scored 6 points or fewer, versus an opponent with a win percentage of .600 or better, resulted in those division home underdogs going 18-0 ATS since 1999. Those division home underdogs also went 10-8 SU during those contests. Give me the Jets plus points.

Iowa @ Nebraska 12:00 PM ET

Game# 121-122

Play On: Nebraska -140

This point-spread goes against logical thinking and when that occurs I more times than not go with the nonsensical option. Iowa is 9-2 and ranked #20. Yet, they’re an underdog against a 5-6 Nebraska team which has lost 3 in a row. This certainly sets up as a flat spot for the Hawkeyes. Iowa is coming off a 15-13 home win over unranked Illinois which clinched a spot in the Big 10 Championship Game next week in which they’ll either take on undefeated Michigan or Ohio State. On the other hand, Nebraska needs a win to become bowl eligible which would be a huge boost for the program under first year head coach Jeff Ruhle. Yes, the Cornhuskers are on a 3-game losing streak, but all those defeats cam by 7, 3, and 3 points. Give me Nebraska as a money line favorite.

49ers @ Seahawks 8:20 PM ET

Game# 109-110

Play On: Over 42.5

Seattle is coming off an away 17-16 division loss to the Rams which dropped their season record to 6-4 (.600). The 49ers enter this NFL West battle with a record of 7-3 (.700). This sets up a high percentage NFL totals betting angle which is displayed below.

NFL teams like Seattle with a win percentage of .727 or worse that are coming off a division loss by 3 points or fewer, and they’re playing after Game 7, versus an opponent with a win percentage of between .153 to .769, and the current total in this identical situation is between 39.0 to 46.5, resulted in those contests playing 34-3 (91.9%) to the over since 2014. Give me this game to go over the total.

Commanders @ Cowboys 4:30 PM ET

Game# 107-108

Play On: Over 48.5

Washington has played 4-0 to the over this season when the number is 42.5 or greater and there was a combined 62.3 points scored per game. During their previous 3 games, Washington has averaged 24.0 points scored and 415.8 yards gained per contest. They’ll be facing a Cowboys team which has averaged 40.0 points scored and 446.5 yards gained per game at home this season. Both teams have played 3-1 to the over in their last 4 games with averaged combined scores of 55.8 points scored in contests involving Dallas and 52.3 in those Washington outings.

Dallas is coming off a 33-10 win at Carolina and covered as an 11.0-point favorite. Washington is coming off a 31-19 home loss to the New York Giants. Any NFL home favorite of -10.0 or greater that’s coming off an away favorite of 10.0 or more ATS cover, versus an opponent that allowed 19 points or more in their previous contest, and the total in this current identical situation is 45.0 or greater, resulted in those games playing 7-0 to the over since 1998. There was a combined average of 65.7 points scored per gane during those 7 contests. Give me this game to go over the total.

Packers @ Lions 12:30 PM ET

Game# 105-106

Play On: Lions -7.5

The Lions are 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 games versus Green Bay. Under current head coach Dan Campbell, Detroit has gone a perfect 7-0 SU&ATS as a favorite of 7.5 or less when facing an opponent coming off a SU win with an average victory margin of 13.0 points per game. Green Bay is coming off last week’s home upset 23-20 win over the Chargers. The Packers are 0-3 SU following a win this season and failed to cover on 2 of those occasions.

Any NFL division home favorite of between 7.0 to 14.0 that playing in Game 3 through 12, and they scored 34 points or fewer in their previous contest, versus an opponent coming off a home underdog SU win, resulted in those home favorites going 9-0 ATS since 2002. Their average margin of victory during those 13 contests came by a decisive margin of 19.0 points per game. Give me the Lions minus points.

Packers @ Lions 12:30 PM ET

Game# 105-106

Play On: Over 47.0

The Packers offense has shown substantial signs of improvement of late. Throughout their previous 3 contests Green Bay has 395.7 yards per game. Although their point per game total of 20.7 per game average during that stretch is indicative of failing to cash in on scoring opportunities more than mediocre at best points scored production.

The Lions are averaging a robust 30.0 points scored and 395.4 yards gained per game at home. During their previous 3 contests, the Lions are averaging 32.7 points scored and 452.3 yards gained per game. Since head coach Dan Campbell was hired, Detroit has played 10-4 to the over as a favorite. Give me this game to go over the total.

Eagles @ Chiefs 8:15 ET

Game# 475-476

Play On: Chiefs -2.5

No head coach in NFL history has his teams more prepared when coming off a regular season bye week than Andy Reid. He was the head coach for the Eagles for 14 years and followed that up with his current tenure in Kansas City which began in 2013. During that time, Reid’s teams have gone 23-3 SU in regular season games when coming off a bye week. Those SU results take on added significance in tonight’s game considering the Chiefs are laying such a small number. This year’s version of the the Chiefs isn’t nearly as explosive offensively as what we’ve become accustomed to in recent years. However, this may be the best defense they’ve had since Reid arrived in town. Kansas City has allowed 21 points or fewer in 8 of 9 games this season while holding opponents to less than 300 yards or total offense 5 times. Since the 2020-2021 season began, Kansas City is 4-1 SU&ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 or less. Additionally, the Chiefs are 7-0 SU&ATS in their last 7 as a home favorite of 12.0 or less when the total was between 42.5 and 49.0. They won those 7 contests by a decisive margin of 18.1 points per game. Since losing their home opener to Detroit 21-20, the Chiefs have gone 3-0 SU&ATS at Arrowhead Stadium with an average victory margin of 18.7 points per game. Give me the Chiefs minus points.

Vikings @ Broncos 8:20 PM ET

Game# 473-474

Play On: Vikings +3.0

The Broncos are 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3. But it comes with an asterisk since they has a massive +8 turnover differential in those contests that were instrumental in them prevailing. During that stretch, the Broncos offense has only averaged 293.0 yards of total offense per game. Additionally, Denver has been outgained in 8 of 9 games this season with the line exception being +8 in total yards versus Green Bay. The Viking are a red-hot 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 games in which 4 of those came as a pick or underdog. Minnesota is also 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 on the road. Granted those 4 wins all came over teams that currently have a losing record. However, despite their recent win streak, Denver is still only 4-5 this season. The Vikings defense has been a very formidable unit since Game 4 of their season. During their last 7 contests they’ve allowed just 18.1 points and 297.9 yards per game. Give me the Vikings plus points.

Rams @ Seahawks 4:25 PM ET

Game# 469-470

Play On: Over 46.0

Mathew Stafford returns to the line after missing the last game at Green Bay due to injury. Stafford has accounted for a trio of 300-yard plus passing games this season which included Week 1 at Seattle. The Seahawks pass defense has been extremely vulnerable in recent seasons and especially when facing upper end quarterbacks like Stafford. This year has been no different which has been proven by them allowing 288 yards or more passing on 4 separate occasions this season. The Seahawks are coming off last Sunday’s 29-26 win over Washington in which they amassed a substantial 489 yards of offense. Quarterback Gino Smith threw for 369 yards and 2 touchdowns in that win. Give me this game to go over the total.

Cardinals @ Texans 1:00 PM ET

Game# 453-454

Play On: Texans -5.5

Arizona got a much-needed spark last Sunday with the season debut of star quarterback Kyler Murray and pulled out a 25-23 home win over Tampa Bay. However, this still isn’t a very good Cardinals team even with Murrays’ return. The Cardinals are 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS on the road this season while losing by an average of 15.4 points per game.

After losing their first 2 games of the season Houston proceeded to win 5 of their next 7. The only losses in that sequence both took place on the road and came by exactly 2-points on each occasion. With a little bit of luck we could be talking about team on a 7-game win streak. Houston quarterback C.J. Stroud is the prohibitive favorite to win NFL Rookie of the Year. The former Ohio State Buckeye has thrown for 15 touchdowns and has only been intercepted twice. He’s been especially exceptional over the last 2 games while throwing for 826 yards, 6 touchdowns, and was picked off just 1 time. Both those efforts were catalysts in Houston’s 39-37 win over Tampa Bay and 30-27 victory at Cincinnati. Furthermore, the Texans rushed for a season high 188 yards in last Sunday’s win over the Bengals.

Any NFL non-division favorite of 3.5 or greater like Houston that’s playing after Game 8, and they’re coming off 2 consecutive wins in which they scored 30 points or more, versus an opponent like Arizona who’s coming off a SU underdog win resulted in those home favorites going 13-0 ATS since 1995, and with an average victory margin of 17.3 points per game. Give ne the Texans minus points.

Chargers @ Packers 1:00 PM ET

Game# 455-456

Play On: Over 44.0

Los Angeles Chargers games have averaged a combined 50.5 points scored per game this season. On a negative note, the Chargers defense surrendered 533 yard in last Sunday’s 451-38 home loss to Detroit. Most notable, they allowed the Lions to rush for 200 yards in that contest and marked the 3rd time this season that they allowed 200 or more yards on the ground. Conversely, the Packers have run for 137 yards or more in 3 of their last 4 games. The Chargers have averaged 31.7 points scored per game in their last 3 contests. The Packers have played 3-0 to the over this season when they’ve been an underdog of 2.0 or more and there was a combined average of 48.3 points scored per game. The weather prediction in Green Bay is pleasant for this time of year and won’t hinder either offense. Give me this game to go over the total.

Giants @ Commanders 1:00 PM ET

Game# 457-458

Play On: Commanders -8.5

Just when you thought it couldn’t get any worse for the Giants, they were crushed at Dallas last Sunday 49-17 and even failed to cover as a mammoth 17.0-points underdog. That came on the heels of a 30-6 blowout loss at Las Vegas the week before. The Giants defense allowed Dallas to rack up a massive 650 yards of total offense which included 472 yards through the air. Now they’ll be facing a young quarterback in Washington’s Sam Howell who’s truly come into his own during recent performances. Throughout his previous 3 games, Howell has gone 97-141 (68.8%) passing for 934 yards and 8 touchdowns versus 2 interceptions. The Commanders will be out to atone for an embarrassing 14-7 road loss to the Giants earlier this season. The Commanders defense will be facing a Giants offense which has scored 17 points or fewer in each of their previous 8 games. Now they’re down to 3rd string undrafted rookie quarterback Tommy DeVito. DeVito was an average at best quarterback in college at Syracuse and Illinois where he underperformed as a 4-Star recruit coming out of high school. DeVito was 14-27 passing for 86 yards in his NFL starting debut at Dallas last week. When you have a 4-6 team like Washington that’s better than a touchdown favorite, it speaks to the ineptitude of the opponent they’re about to go up against. Give me the Commanders minus points.

Washington @ Oregon State 7:30 PM ET

Game# 379-380

Play On: Oregon State -120

We have the #5 team in the country that’s 10-0 like Washington who’s vying for a national championship in a virtual even game against a 2-loss team. It just looks way too good to be true doesn’t it? However, in my professional opinion this current point-spread is justified. Oregon State is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS at home this season with an average victory margin of 27.2 points per game. Which includes a 21-7 win over #16 Utah and a 36-24 victory versus UCLA (6-4) who was 4-1 and nationally ranked at that time. Conversely, Washington’s last 6 wins have all come by 10 points or fewer. Furthermore, throughout their previous 3 contests the Huskies have allowed an average of 34.3 points and 465.3 yards per game. That’s hardly national championship caliber defense.