Sports Picks & Predictions

Knicks @ Pacers 7:00 PM ET

Game# 501-502

Play On: Pacers -6.5

The Pacers are coming off a 130-121 loss in Game 2 at New York on Wednesday night. Indiana has gone 10-0 SU and 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 this season following a game in which they scored 130 points or more. Indiana is also 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 at home immediately following an away loss in their previous game. The average line for Indiana in those 4 games was -7.4 and they won by a substantial margin of 24.2 points per game.

Conversely, the Knicks are 0-3 SU&ATS this season following a game in which they allowed 130 points or more and they lost by an average of 10.0 points per game. We must also keep in mind; the Knicks will be a shorthanded team in this one with 3 key players out for the year and O.G Anunoby listed as questionable after suffering a hamstring in Wednesday’s 1st half. They also loss center Mitchell Robinson for the season after he suffered ankle injury in Game 1 of this series. Not to mention Bojan Bogdanovich who was injured during the Knicks opening round win over Philadelphia and is ruled out for the season. Not to mention Jalen Brunson missing the entire 2nd quarter in Wednesday’s win while receiving treatment for n injured food and NBA all-star Julius Randle was lost for the year during their last month of regular season action.

Any NBA Playoffs Game 3 home favorite -4.0 to -9.5 that’s coming off away SU&ATS underdog losses in the first 2 games of the series, and they allowed 112 points or more in their previous game, resulted in those Game 3 home favorites going 10-0 SU and 8-1-1 ATS since 2003. Give me Indiana minus points.

Mavericks @ Clippers 10:00 PM ET

Game# 505-506

Play On: Mavericks -2.5

The Mavericks are coming off a 116-11 Game 4 home favorite upset loss to the Clippers. The Clippers are 0-5 SU&ATS this season as an underdog of 6.5 or less following an away win and lost by an average of 13.0 points per game. They've also gone a dismal 1-5 SU&ATS this season following a SU underdog win in their previous game.

 Dallas has gone an extremely profitable 20-6 ATS this season as a road favorite, and it improves to 3-0 SU&ATS following a home loss with an average victory margin of 10.0 points per game. The Mavericks are 4-0 SU&ATS this season as a favorite following a SU favorite loss in their previous game.

This is a very rare NBA postseason betting situation that favors the road favorite in a very small sample size. Nonetheless, any NBA Playoffs away favorite in a Game 5 with the series tied 2-2 that's coming off a home loss has gone 3-0 SU&ATS since 2004. Those 3 road favorites won by an average of 11.4 points per game. Give me the Mavericks minus points.

Cavaliers @ Magic 7:00 PM ET

Game# 525-526

Play On: Magic -125 (ML)

The Cleveland Cavaliers force 13 turnovers per game this season and that’s significant. Orland is 17-2 SU at home this season when facing an opponent who forces 13 turnovers or fewer per contest and with a sizable point per game differential of +14.3. Orlando has also gone a perfect 9-0 SU&ATS in their last 9 conference home games and with an enormous average victory margin 17.7 points per contest. Conversely, Cleveland is an abysmal 0-5 SU&ATS this season as an away underdog of 3.5 or less and lost by an average of 14.6 points per contest.

Since the 2003 NBA Playoffs, any Game 3 home favorite of 1.5 or greater that’s coming off SU&ATS losses in the first 2 games of the series have gone 33-8 SU (80.5%). Give me the Magic as a money line favorite.

Pacers @ Bucks 8:30 PM ET

Game# 511-512

Play On: Over 222.0

Since the start of last season, Indiana has played 8-0 to the over when there’s a total of 234.5 or less and they scored 105 points or fewer in their previous game. Those 8 contests averaged a combined 245.0 points scored per game. Despite Game 1 having just a combined 203 points scored, the 6 meetings between these division rivals this season has produced an average of 245.5 points scored per game. Milwaukee has seen their last 4 go over the total after allowing 105 points or fewer in their previous contest and there was a combined average of 242.2 points scored per game.

Pelicans @ Kings 10:00 PM ET

Game# 551-552

Play On: Pelicans +1.5

The New Orleans Pelicans have dominated Sacramento this season while going 4-0 SU&ATS in their head-to-head meeting and with an enormous average victory margin of 21.3 points per game. The Pelicans have been better on the road than at home this season. New Orleans is currently 26-14 (.650) on the road and 21-18 (.538) on their home floor. The Kings enter tonight’s game having lost 3 of their last 4 and 5 of the previous 8 contests. Although Sacramento is averaging 116.5 points scored per game this season, they’ve recently struggled in that category of late. The Kings have scored 109 points or fewer in 10 of their last 11 games. Sacramento has gone a mediocre 7-6 SU in their last 13 at home. Give me the Pelicans.

Purdue vs. Connecticut 9:20 PM ET

Game# 675-676

Play On: Under 145.5

UConn has seen all 5 of their NCAA Tournament games go under the total with a combined average of 139.4 points scored per game. They were terrific defensively during those contests allowing a mere 57.2 points per contests and holding their opponents to 34.7% shooting. The Huskies also allowed just 14 free throw attempts per game during those 5 wins.

Purdue has played 4-1 to the under in the NCAA Tournament and with a combined average of 140.0 points scored per game. The Boilermakers held those 5 opponents to just 60.2 points per game, 39.4% shooting, and permitted them to get to the free throw line an average of only 10 times per game.

Neither one of these teams prefers a fast tempo game. UConn ranks 328th out of 362 Division 1 teams with regards to offensive tempo while Purdue is 211th in that same category. This will be the 4th time since the 2015 NCAA Tournament when two #1 seeds will square off against one another in the championship game. The previous 3 all went under the total and with a combined average of 141.0 points scored per game. Give me this game to go under the total.

 NC State vs. Purdue 6:09 PM ET

Game# 673-674

Play On: Purdue -9.0

The Cinderella NC State Wolfpack have been a nice story. They were just 17-14 during regular season action. However, once the postseason began, they went 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS which enabled them to reach this point. That includes 7-0 SU&ATS as an underdog. Yet, they find themselves as a 9.0-point underdog in this Final 4 matchup versus #1 seed Purdue. Here’s the caveat, since the 2017 NCAA Tournament, any #1 seed that was a favorite of between 7.0 to 14.0 in a Regional Final, National Semifinal, or Championship game have gone 5-0 SU&ATS with a substantial average victory margin of 18.8 points per contest. Although taking the red-hot sizable underdog is seemingly a very alluring option, recent history has shown that by doing so it’s been a losing proposition. Furthermore, from an analytical standpoint, Purdue has sizable advantages in rebounding, 3-point shooting percentage, and assist to field goal made percentage. Give me Purdue minus points.

Knicks @ Bulls 8:10 PM ET

Game# 545-546

Play On: Bulls -119 (ML)

Chicago is coming off a 1 13-101 loss to Atlanta in a game they closed as a 2.0-point home favorite. The Bulls are a perfect 7-0 this season when coming off a SU favorite loss by 10 or more and won by an average of 7.2 points per contest. Chicago is also 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 this season at home immediately following a home favorite SU loss and with an average victory margin of 10.2 points per contest. The Knicks are coming off yesterday’s home win over Sacramento. New York is 1-4 SU&ATS this season as a road underdog playing with no rest and were outscored by an average of 9.6 points per game. Give me the Bulls.

NC State vs. Duke 5:05 PM ET

Game# 657-658

Play On: NC State +7.5

Duke is coming off a physically and emotionally draining 54-51 win over #1 seed Houston on Friday night. I know it’s the NCAA Tournament and the sense of urgency rises to a whole other level. However, I find it hard to believe that the physical and emotional toll that Duke needed to pull off their upset over Houston has at the very least a small carryover into Sunday’s Regional Final. Besides the fact they’re playing a red-hot NC State team that’s gone 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS this postseason and includes 6-0 SU&ATS as an underdog. Give me NC State plus points.

Tennessee vs. Purdue 2:20 PM ET

Game# 655-656

Play On: Under 148.5

These teams met in the Maui Invitational earlier this season and Purdue walked away with a 71-67 win. That contest went over the total despite Purdue shooting 35% and Tennessee 33% from the floor. However, there was a unordinary 78 free throw attempts combined in that contests which resulted in 50 points scored. It’s highly improbable we will see anywhere near that volume in this contest.

Tennessee is ranked 3rd nationally in defensive efficiency and Purdue is 7th. Tennessee is coming off an 82-75 win over Creighton on Friday. The Volunteers have played 12-3 to the under in away or neutral site games since the start of last season after scoring 80 points or more in their previous contest. Those 15 contests averaged only a combined 132.1 points scored per game. Purdue has committed 10 turnovers or fewer in each of their 3 NCAA Tournament games. Since the start of last season, the Boilermakers have played 7-0 to the under after committing 11 turnovers or fewer in each of their previous 3 games and there was only a combined average of 131.7 points scored per contest. Purdue has allowed 12.0 free throw attempts per game thus far in the NCAA Tournament and Tennessee 14.7 per contest. Tennessee has shot less than 40% in 5 of their last 7 games. Give me this game to go under the total.

Clemson vs. Alabama 8:49 PM ET

Game# 653-654

Play On: Clemson +3.5

I’ve mentioned numerous times on camera and in text about not overlooking free throws as part of your process when handicapping a game. Alabama is #319 nationally in free throw attempts allowed because of their aggressive defensive nature in an attempt to speed up the pace of games to their liking. Conversely, Clemson is #9 nationally in free throw percentage while making a terrific 78.7% of their attempts this season. Alabama has allowed 27.3 free throw attempts per contest throughout their first 3 NCAA Tournament games.

Alabama is coming off an 89-87 win over #1 seed North Carolina in the Sweet 16. However, since the start of last season, the Crimson Tide has gone a dismal 0-5 SU when coming off a win by 6 points or fewer in an away or neutral site game and lost by 15.2 points per contest. On the other side of the ledger, Clemson has gone 5-0 SU this season in an away or neutral side game when facing opponents like Alabama who average 62 or more field goal attempts per game and with a sizable average victory margin of 19.4 points per outing. Clemson has also gone 7-0 SU this season when in non-conference games when facing teams that made the 2024 NCAA Tournament. Clemson has been outstanding defensively in their first 3 NCAA Tournament game while holding opponents to a mere 34.3% shooting.

Lastly, Alabama is a team that shoots a high volume of 3-point shots. Specifically speaking, the Crimson Tide has seen 46.3% of their field goal attempts this season come from 3-point territory. However, Clemson has held their 3 NCAA Tournament opponents to 14-75 (18.3%) from beyond the 3-point line. Give me Clemson plus points.

Illinois vs. Iowa State 10:10 PM ET

Game# 631-632

Play On: Illinois +1.5

Illinois is #1 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency and Iowa State is #1 defensively. So, something must be given. The overused cliche is defense wins championships and there’s data to back up that statement. However, this is an exception to the rule in my mind. The Cyclones are just 69% from the free throw line and that’s a concern when you get this far in the NCAA Tournament and are involved in what is seemingly an even matchup such as this one. Additionally, as good as Iowa State is defensively, they allow opponents to get to the free throw line frequently and rank #230 nationally in the category. Illinois is a solid free throw shooting team at 74.2% and is in the top 20% of college basketball teams when it comes to free throw attempts. Iowa State is one of the best teams in the country when it relates to forcing turnovers. Nevertheless, Illinois has committed turnovers on just 15% of their offensive possessions this season which is very good.

I very seldom refer to players when giving my handicapping analysis. However, Illinois guard Terrance Shannon will be unequivocally the best player on the floor tonight. He’s not only a deadly 3-point shooter but can beat defenders off the dribble and gets fouled quite frequently when doing so. Since the start of the Big Ten Tournament, Shannon is averaging 31.6 points per game, made 41.7% of his 3-point shot attempts, and has a excellent 87.9% conversion rate on free throws. Keep in mind, this is the same Terrance Shannon Jr. that was a key contributor as a freshman on a Texas Tech team that lost the 2020 national championship team in overtime. Give me Illinois.

Grand Canyon vs. Alabama 7:10 PM ET

Game# 839-840

Play On: Grand Canyon +6.0

If you watched Grand Canyon (30-4) upset nationally ranked St. Mary’s on Friday in Spokane, Washington then you know the Antelopes had overwhelming supports from their fanbase inside the building. That won’t change on Sunday and will serve as a huge emotional lift for the underdog. Grand Canyon was 28-36 (77.8%) from the free throw line in that win. Grand Canyon is #3 nationally in getting to the free throw line and has made 75.4% of those attempts. Conversely, Alabama is #320 nationally in free throw attempts allowed with much attributed to their aggressive defensive style. Grand Canyon’s interior defense was sensational versus St. Mary’s evidenced by 9 blocked shots. Alabama is #347 in the country in getting their shot attempts blocked. Another advantage Grand Canyon will have in on the offensive glass where they rank #32 nationally. On the other hand, Alabama is #236 in defensive rebounding. Give me Grand Canyon plus points.

Duquesne vs. Illinois 8:40 PM ET

Game# 797-798

Play On: Illinois -9.5

Duquesne is coming off a huge upset win as a 9.5-point underdog on Thursday versus #6 seed BYU of the vaunted Big 12 Conference. The #11 seed Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament champion is now 16-3 in their last 19 and that includes a current 9-game win streak. However, Illinois presents a whole different challenge than BYU. The Illini are #2 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency and are a very good offensive rebounding team. If Duquesne has a weakness defensively it’s their rebounding. Duquesne ranks #222 nationally in defensive rebounding while Illinois is #16 on the offensive glass. Illinois will also have the best player on the court in this matchup Terrance Shannon Jr. who is a huge difference maker. During his 3 games in the Big 10 Tournament and in the NCAA Round of 64 versus Morehead State during an 85-69 win, Shannon has averaged 30.5 points per contest. Lastly, Illinois has gone a perfect 6-0 SU&ATS in their last 6 following a win by 15 or more and as a favorite of 5.0 or greater.  The average margin of victory in those 6 wins and covers came by a substantial average of 28.3 points per game. Give me Illinois minus points.

Virginia Tech @ Ohio State 7:00 PM ET

Game# 805-806

Play On: Ohio State -3.5

Virginia Tech has gone an abysmal 2-9 SU&ATS in true road games this season, and that includes 1-8 SU&ATS as an underdog. The Hokies have played terrible defense down the season’s final stretch while allowing opponents to shoot 50% or better in 7 of their last 10 games. Conversely, during their previous 5 contests, Ohio State has averaged 81.8 points scored per game, shot 49.5% from the field and made an excellent 43.0% of their 3-point shot attempts. For whatever reason the Buckeyes have been playing great basketball since their head coach was fired while going 6-1 SU&ATS during those contests. The Buckeyes are also 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 at home while outscoring their opponents by 9.0 points per game. Give me Ohio State minus points.

New Mexico vs. San Diego State 6:00 PM ET

Game# 623-624

Play On: New Mexico +2.5

As we’ve witnessed throughout this year’s conference tournament action, teams on the bubble for the NCAA Tournament has succeeded win either winning or covering as an underdog more times than not. Such has been the case for New Mexico. The Lobos have played with a high degree of urgency and desperation during their 3 wins in the MWC Tournament. They’ve turned in superb performances on each occasion and surprisingly have been extremely good defensively, which hasn’t been their forte this season. The Lobos allowed 61.0 points per game while holding Air Force, Boise State, and Colorado State to just 34.0% shooting. Despite of that, Joe Lunardi has New Mexico as the last team in with Missouri Valley Conference regular season champ Indiana State and Virginia lurking behind. So, I fully expect their desperation and urgency to be at a high level in the championship game and not leave it up to the NCAA Tournament committee whether or not they’ll be dancing next week. Furthermore, the Lobos are 6-0 SU&ATS this season on a neutral court with an average victory margin of 18.3 points per game.

San Diego State needed overtime in the quarterfinal round to knock off UNLV and then won decisively over #1 seed Utah State by 16. However, the Aztecs are 0-4 SU&ATS in their last 4 immediately following 2 consecutive wins and were outscored by 7.7 points per game. San Diego State is projected to be a #5 seed in the NCAA Tournament, so they have no uncertainty in that regard. Give me New Mexico plus points.

Ohio State vs. Illinois 6:30 PM ET

Game# 811-812

Play On: Illinois -5.0

Yes, Ohio State has responded well since the firing of their head coach Chris Holtman. The Buckeyes are 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5. However, just 1 of those 5 teams had a winning record in league play and that was Nebraska at 12-8. The other 4 teams had a combined record of 30-50 in Nig 10 regular season action.

I truly believe that Illinois is a legitimate contender to reach the Final Four. They finished 14-6 in the Big 10 and was second only to #3 ranked Purdue (28-3). Illinois easily won their only regular season games against Ohio State this season 87-75 and easily covered as a 3.0-point road favorite. Give me Illinois for a top-rated wager.

Bucks @ Kings 10:10 PM ET

Game# 557-558

Play On: Over 235.0

These teams have gone over the total in their last 22 head-to-head meetings and did so by an average of 15.6 points per game. Since the start of the 2020-2021 season, they’ve met 7 times and produced a combined average of 257.4 points per game, and that includes a 143-142 Bucks win in Milwaukee on 1/14/2024.

After going through a 6-game win streak in which they allowed 106 points or fewer on each occasion, Milwaukee has dropped 2 of their last 3 while allowing 122.7 points per contest. During that recent 3-game stretch Milwaukee opponents have combined to shoot a combined 50.9%. The Bucks offensive play has very rarely been an issue this season based on them averaging 120.9 points per contest to this point.

Sacramento is coming off a 112-104 home loss to Houston that went under the total of 234.0. However, the Kings have played 5-0 to the over in their last 5 immediately following an under and there was a combined average of 245.8 points scored per game. The Kings shot 45.6% in that loss to Houston. Sacramento has shot 50% or better in 6 straight games immediately after a contest in which they shot less than 50%. Throughout their previous 6 contests, the Kings have averaged 95.3 field goal attempts per game which equates to an extremely fast pace even by NBA standards. Give me this game to go over the total.

Pacers @ Magic 6:10 PM ET

Game# 517-518

Play On: Magic -125

Orlando is coming off road loss at New York. However, the Magic have gone 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 following a loss and won by a decisive margin of 17.2 points per game. Orlando is also an extremely profitable 22-3 this season as a money line favorite. Orlando has shot 52.7% or better from the field in 5 of their last 6 games. The Magic have also allowed 109 points or fewer in 10 consecutive games. Conversely, Indiana has allowed 110 points or more in each of their previous 13 and their opponents have shot 50% or better during 17 of their last 26 games. As a matter of fact, Indiana is allowing 121.8 points per game this season. Conversely, Orlando is 15-2 SU this season versus opponents that allow an average of 220.0 points or more per game. Give me the Magic minus points.

Utah @ Oregon 7:00 PM ET

Game# 699-700

Play On: Over 151.0

This has all the earmarks of a high scoring affair. Utah has played 3-0 to the over in their last 3 away with a combined 156.7 points scored per game. During their last 3 games overall, Utah averaged a lofty 87.7 points scored per contest and shooting 50.5% from the floor. They also played at a very fast tempo during those 3 contests while averaging 65 field goal attempts per game. Utah defeated Oregon at home earlier this season 80-77 in a game that sailed over the total of 149.5.

Oregon has scored 75 points or more and shot 49% or better in 4 of their last 5 games. The Ducks have played 4-0 to the over in their last 4 when the total was 151.0 or greater and an average of 167.5 points were scored per game. Oregon has played 7-1 to the over in their last 8 this season when facing an opponent like Utah who averages 77.0 or more points per game with a combined 160.9 points scored a game. Give me this game to go over the total.

California @ Stanford 11:00 PM ET

Game# 769-770

Play On: Over 154.5

Stanford has played 13-2 to the over at home this season with a combined 160.1 points being scored per game. California is coming off an 88-59 loss at Utah which stayed under the total of 154.5. However, the Bears have played 3-0 to the over in their last 3 following an under during their previous contest with a combined average of 158.3 points scored per outing. Stanford is #2 in PAC-12 Conference play while making 38.9% of their 3-point shot attempts. On a negative note, the Cardinal have lost 6 in a row and allowed 81.8 points per game while doing so. Conversely, California has allowed 80 points or more in each of their previous 4 conference away games. Stanford is #3 and California #4 when it comes to offensive tempo during conference action. Give me this game to go over the total.

Spurs @ Rockets 8:10 PM ET

Game# 525-526

Play On: Rockets -7.5

Houston is 7-0 SU&ATS this season as a home favorite of between 3.5 to 9.5 and with an average victory margin of 178.6 points per game. San Antonio are coming off 2 consecutive wins for just the 4th time this season while defeating Oklahoma City 132-118 and Indiana 117-105. However, the Spurs are an abysmal 0-9 SU&ATS this season as an away underdog of between 3.5 to 9.5 and were outscored by a massive average of 23.0 points per game. San Antonio is 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS this season immediately following 2 wins in a row. Give me Houston minus points. Give me the Rockets minus points.

Gonzaga @ St. Mary’s 10:00 PM ET

Game# 801-802

Play On: Over 141.0

St. Mary’s has scored 70 points or more in their last 6 abd 12 of their previous 13 games. The Gaels have played 5-0 to the over in their last 5 at home with a combined average of 148.4 points scored per game. During their last 5 outings, St. Mary’s has scored 84.0 points per game while shooting a sizzling hot 53.0% and they made an exceptional 45.0% of their 3-point shot attempts.

Gonzaga has scored 86 points or more in each of their previous 7 contests. During their previous 5 contests, Gonzaga has scored 91.6 points per game, shot 58.6% from the field, and made an excellent 41.6% of their 3-point shots. Gonzaga is #4 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency and #1 during conference play. Give me this game to go over the total for a Top Play wager.

Trailblazers @ Heat 10:10 PM ET

Game# 571-572

Play On: Heat -7.0

Portland is coming off a 93-80 home loss to Charlotte. The Trailblazers have gone an abysmal 0-7 SU&ATS this season as an underdog of 13.5 or less and after game in which they scored 95 points or fewer. The lost those 7 contests by an enormous margin of 26.6 points per game. Portland is also 0-6 SU&ATS in their last 6 contests and lost by an average of 14.0 points per game.

Miami is coming off last night’s win at Sacramento. The Heat are 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 with all coming as a road underdog. Additionally, the heat have gone 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 as a favorite and won by 13.7 points per game. I have little concern about Miami playing with no rest this evening since they’re recently coming off the all-star break. Give me the Heat minus points.

Kentucky @ Mississippi State 7:00 PM ET

Game# 621-622

Play On: Mississippi State -3.5

I’m of the opinion they’re giving us the winner in this matchup with unranked Mississippi State being a favorite over 6th ranked Kentucky. The sportsbooks are begging you to take the ranked road underdog in this spot. The Bulldogs will be playing with revenge stemming from a 90-77 loss at Kentucky earlier this season. That was a contest in which Kentucky was awarded 17 more free throw attempts than Mississippi State and the Wildcats outscored the Bulldogs by 17 points from the charity stripe. That type of free throw shooting disparity is unlikely to occur again. Kentucky has gone just 2-4 SU in their last 6 conference away games. Conversely, Mississippi State enter this contest on a 5-game win streak and that includes going 4-0 ATS if they were favorite by 9.5 or less with an average victory margin of 17.3 points per game.  Give me Mississippi State minus points.

Minnesota @ Nebraska 6:30 PM ET

Game# 857-858

Play On: Nebraska -6.5

I know Minnesota has been playing very well in recent weeks. However, they’re still just 2-5 SU on the road.  I also can’t ignore the fact that Nebraska is a perfect 8-0 SU&ATS during conference home game this season. The Cornhuskers will also be out to revenge a 76-65 loss at Minnesota earlier this season while outscoring their opponents by an average of 13.2 points per game. Give me Nebraska minus points.

George Mason @ Loyola-Chicago 4:30 PM ET

Game# 701-702

Play On: Loyola-Chicago -3.0

George Mason is coming off their first ever win in program history over a Top 25 opponents when they knocked off #16 Daton 74-70 the last time out. This has all the potential for a letdown spot for George Mason given the emotional high carried away from and during that win. It’s only human nature that George Mason won’t come close to the intensity level and mental sharpness it had during that upset win. Additionally, George Mason is 1-4 in their last 5 conference away games. Although Dayton and Richmond have made plenty of headlines this season in the Atlantic 10 Conference, Loyola-Chicago is a sneaky good team. Loyola enters Saturday’s contest having won 6 in a row, 9 of their last 10, and 13 of their previous 15 contests. Furthermore, tjhey already won at George Mason 85-79 earlier this season. Give me Loyola-Chicago minus points for a Top Play wager.

Florida @ Alabama 7:00 PM ET

Game# 679-680

Play On: Alabama -9.0

Florida has gone 7-1 in their last 8 games which included wins over #14 Auburn and #17 Kentucky. Yet, they find themselves as a heavy underdog in this contest and for good reason in my opinion. Alabama is 13-1 SU &12-2 ATS at home this season and outscored their opponents by an enormous average of 26.6 points per game. Furthermore, they’ve gone 6-0 SU&ATS in conference home games this season with a substantial average victory margin of 21.1 points per game. Alabama is #1 in SEC play when it comes to adjusted offensive efficiency. Conversely, Florida has allowed 80.2 points per game in SEC action this season. Additionally, Alabama is a much better defensive team than they’re given credit for and especially when considering the torrid offensive pace they play at. Give me Alabama minus points.

Maryland @ Wisconsin 9:00 PM ET

Game# 635-636

Play On: Wisconsin -7.0

Maryland has gone 1-4 SY&ATS in their last 5 which includes 0-3 ATS as an underdog. The Terrapins are a very good defensive team but can’t put the ball in the ocean offensively. During conference action, Marland has shot 39.8% from the field and made a poor 28.3% of their 3-point shot attempts.

This can be perceived to be a heavy number to cover for a Wisconsin team which is 1-5 SU & 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games. However, the Badgers are 11-2 SU at home this season with their lone defeats coming against #5 Tennessee and #3 Purdue.  Additionally, Wisconsin is 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in conference home games and that includes 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS as a favorite. Give me Wisconsin minus points.

Youngstown State @ Clevland State 3:00 PM ET

Game# 669-670

Play On: Over 151.5

Since the start of last season, these Horizon League in-state rivals have played 3 times, and each went over the total with an average combined score of 159.3 points scored per game. That includes a 94-69 Youngstown State win earlier this season in a game that soared over the total of 146.0. YSU has played 4-0-1 to the over in their last 5 contests with a combined 167.6 points scored per game. The Penguins have allowed 81.0 points per game in their last 5 and opponents made 39.0% of their 3-point shots. Cleveland State has gone 11-2 at home this and averaged 80.2 points scored per game. Cleveland State allows the most free throw attempts of any Horizon League team during conference play. That will help us significantly since YSU is #1 in the Horizon League from the free throw line while connecting on an excellent 79.1% of their attempts.

Warriors @ Nets 7:40 PM ET

Game# 565-566

Play On: Nets +1.5

This is an attractive spot for the home team in this matchup as I see and diagnose it. This will be the Warriors 3rd road game in 4-days and they wasted a 62-point epic performance at Atlanta on Saturday while falling to the Hawks 141-131. Golden State is now 6-11 SU in their last 17 overall and 3-9 SU during their previous 12 road games. Since the start of last season, the Warriors are a dismal 5-18 SU on the road immediately following a road loss.

Contrary to their opponent tonight, Brooklyn is a well-rested team that will be playing just their 3rd game in 7 days. Additionally, Brooklyn isn’t road weary considering 5 of their last 6 have been played at home. The Nets have won 3 of their last 4. During their previous 3 outings Brooklyn has scored 134.3 points per game and shot a red-hot 51.0%. Brooklyn has also made a stellar 39.1% of their 3-point shot attempts over their previous 5 games. All that is good news for Nets backers when considering Golden State has allowed 125.6 points per game over their last 5 while opponents knocked down 37.1% of their 3-point shots against them. Give me the Nets on the money line.

Raptors @ Thunder 7:10 PM ET

Game# 553-554

Play On: Over 238.0

The Raptors have played 8-0 to the over in their last 8 on the road whenever the number was 230.0 or greater. Those 8 contests had an average total of 236.7 and there was a combined 253.9 points scored per game. Toronto has also played 6-0 to the over in their last 6 non-conference road contests and there was a combined 254.0 points scored per game.

This will be the finale of a 4-game homestand for the Thunder. Since the start of last season, Oklahoma City has played 10-1 to the over when playing 4 or more consecutive home games in a row and there was a combined 245.1 points scored per contest. The Thunder averages 122.3 points scored per game while shooting 50.7% and making 38.1% of their 3-point shots at home this season. They’ll be facing a Raptors team that has allowed 120.7 points per game while their opponents shot a combined 51.7% throughout their previous 6 games.

Kings @ Bulls 8:10 PM ET

Game# 533-534

Play On: Bulls -130

Sacramento will be playing their 6th road game in 10 days. That includes playing last night and 3 in the last 4 days. The Kings are coming off last night’s 133-122 win at Indiana which makes them 4-1 on this current trip. However, they’ll be facing a Bulls team playing on 2-days rest and coming off a 117-110 at Charlotte on Wednesday. The Bulls have gone 3-0 SU&ATS this season in non-conference games following a road win and with an average victory margin of 16.7 points per contest. Conversely, the Kings are 0-4 SU&ATS this season playing with no rest and when the point-spread is between +3.5 and -3.5 while being outscored by an enormous margin of 20.4 points per game. Give me the Bulls plus points.

Florida @ Kentucky 8:00 PM ET

Game# 709-710

Play On: Kentucky -5.5

Florida is an uninspiring 1-3 SU&ATS in true road games this season and allowed 84.3 points per contest while doing so. The Gators rank next to last in adjusted defensive efficiency during SEC play. That’s not good news when considering that Kentucky is #9 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency and #4 in 3-point shooting while converting on an impressive 40.2% of their long-distance attempts. Kentucky doesn’t beat themselves which is proven by them turning the ball over on just 13.1% of their offensive possessions. The Wildcats are 10-1 at home this season which includes winning their last 4 by 15.3 points per contest and they averaged 95.3 points scored per game. Give me Kentucky minus points.

76ers @ Warriors 10:10 PM ET

Game# 563-564

Play On: Over 235.5

Golden State has played 7-0 to the over in their last 7 whenever the total was 227.0 or greater and there was a combined average of 259.6 points scored per game. Philadelphia has gone 4-0 to the over in their last 4 when the total was 227.0 or greater and there was a combined 249.5 points scored per game. The 76ers have seen a combined 56 free throw attempts per contest throughout their previous 5 games, and that included 30 per outing by themselves. Golden State has allowed 29 free throw attempts per contest over their previous 5 games. That should provide us with a plethora of scoring opportunities with the clock stopped in this matchup. Give me this game to go over the total.

Lakers @ Rockets 8:10 PM ET

Game# 543-544

Play On: Over 232.5

Houston has played 7-1 to the over in their previous 8 when the total was 227.0 or greater and there was a combined average of 243.1 points scored per game. The Rockets are coming off a 106-104 loss at Brooklyn in a game that went under the total 222.0. Houston has played 4-0 to the over in their last 4 following an under in their previous contest and there was a combined average of 253.0 points scored per game. Houston has averaged an extremely high 98 field goal attempts per contest and scored 121.4 points per game throughout their previous 5 outings.

The Lakers have played 13-0 to the over in their last 13 on the road when the total was 227.0 or greater and there was a combined average of 247.9 points scored per game. Los Angeles has gone over the total in each of their last 5 games overall and with a combined 258.2 points scored per game. Give me this game to go over the total.

Ohio State @ Northwestern 3:30 PM ET

Game# 811-812

Play On: Northwestern -2.5

Ohio State is 0-4 this season in true away games and all those games came against fellow Big 10 Conference teams. After starting the season 11-2, Ohio State has also dropped 4 of the last 5 overall which includes losses to 3 unranked teams. Northwestern has gone 10-1 at home this season which includes quality wins over #2 Purdue (18-2) and #10 Illinois (14-5). Furthermore, Northwestern is #2 in Big 10 play in 3-point accuracy while making 41.4% of those long-distance shot. Conversely, Ohio State ranks 13th during Big 10 conference play in 3-point defense while allowing opponents to convert an alarmingly high 40.6% of their attempts. Give me Northwestern minus points for a Top Play wager.

St. Joseph’s @ St. Bonaventure 8:30 PM ET

Game# 887-888

Play On: Over 144.0

St. Bonaventure has gone over the total in each of their last 5 at home with a combined average of 153.2 points scored per game. The Bonnies have scored 89 points or more and shot 55% or better in 4 of those last 5 at home. St. Joe’s has gone over the total in all 6 of their true road games this season with a combined 163.0 points scored per game. Give me this game to go over the total.

Suns @ Mavericks 7:30 PM ET

Game# 539-540

Play On: Suns -135

The Suns are coming off a narrow 115-113 home win over Chicago and they overcame a 15-point halftime deficit while doing so. That victory improved their current win streak to 6 games. That includes 3-0 SU&ATS on the road with an average margin of victory coming by 14.3 points per game. During their current win streak, the Suns have scored 121.3 points per game and shot a sizzling hot 53.5% from the field. Conversely, Dallas has allowed 121.3 points per game and opponents shot a combined 49.7% throughout their previous 6 contests. Give me the Suns as a money line favorite.

Xavier @ Creighton 8:30 PM ET

Game# 645-646

Play On: Over 148.0

Xavier has played 4-0 to the over in their last 4 and there was a combined average of 161.0 points scored per game. The Musketeers have been playing a an extremely fast office pace over their last 7 contests which is evidenced by them having 63 or more field goal attempts on each occasion. Xavier has scored 74 points or more in 8 of their last 10 games. Creighton is averaging an impressive 87.8 points scored per game while shooting 51.2% and includes going 36% from 3-point range at home this season. Give me this game to go over the total.

Bulls @ Raptors 7:30 PM ET

Game# 521-522

Play On: Bulls -125

Toronto is coming off last night’s 121-97 home blowout win over Miami. However, the Raptors are 3-12 SU this season following a win. Furthermore, Toronto has lost their last 3 at home following a win and were outscored by a sizable margin of 14.3 points per game.

Conversely, the Bulls are 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 when playing on 1 or more days rest and versus an opponent who played the day before. Chicago won those 3 contests by an average of 9.0 points per game. The Bulls are coming off a loss. Nonetheless, Chicago has gone 6-1 SU in their last 7 games immediately after a loss. Give me the Bulls as a money line favorite.

Kings @ Suns 9:10 PM ET

Game# 571-572

Play On: Kings +4.5

The Suns are a disappointing 21-18 this season and that includes an extremely uninspiring 11-11 at home. Phoenix will be facing an opponent tonight in the Sacramento Kings averaging 118.2 points scored per game. That’s a significant statistic since Phoenix has gone an abysmal 0-10 ATS this season when facing teams that average 116.0 or more points scored per game and were outscored by 10.8 points per contest. Phoenix is only forcing 12 turnovers per game this season. That’s also noteworthy since Sacramento is 9-1 ATS this season versus teams that force an average of 13 turnovers or less per game and they outscored those opponents by 6.0 points per contest. Lastly, dating back to last season, Sacramento is 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 versus Phoenix while outscoring them by an average of 10.0 points per game. Give me the Kings plus the points.

Temple @ North Texas 6:00 PM ET

Game# 739-740

Play On: North Texas -11.0

Temple started the season 3-0 and has gone 5-8 since. Those struggles have occurred despite playing against a strength of schedule that ranks #217 according to KenPom. The Owls have also suffered bad losses at the hands of #235 Columbia, #262 Old Domion, #176 East Carolina, and #147 South Florida.  On the other hand, North Texas is 7-0 at home this season with an average victory margin of 20.0 points per game. The Mean Green is a very frustrating team to play against since they plat at one of the slowest offensive paces in the country and are an excellent defensive team as well. Give me North Texas minus points.

Celtics @ Bucks 7:40 PM ET

Game# 571-572

Play On: Celtics +4.5

The Bucks are an impressive 16-3 at home this season. However, they lost their last 2 in Milwaukee to Utah 132-116 and Indiana 122-113. As a matter of fact, the Bucks are 1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last 5 overall.

The Celtics find themselves as an underdog for just the 2nd time all season. Since the start of last season, Boston is 9-1 ATS and 6-4 SU as an underdog. All 4 of those SU losses came by 6 points or fewer and by a combined 15 points. Their lone time as an underdog this season, they were +3.0 at Sacramento and won 144-119. Give me the Celtics plus points.

Connecticut @ Butler 6:30 PM ET

Game# 877-878

Play On: Butler +6.0

This will be just the 3rd true road game for UConn this season and they lost to Kansas by 4 and Seton Hall by 15 in the first 2. Butler is 10-4 but it’s worth noting that they’re 8-0 at home and considering their a sizable underdog in this spot that element can’t be ignored. Butler has also played the tougher schedule to this point compared to UConn which may not result in winning this game outright but certainly bodes well for them to be competitive throughout and stay inside the number. Give me Butler plus points.

Indiana @ Nebraska 9:00 PM ET

Game# 705-706

Play On: Nebraska -5.0

Nebraska is 11-2 and every good as their record indicates. The Cornhuskers have quality depth and are a very experienced team. Indiana is one of the youngest teams in the Big 10 Conference. It seems odd to see Nebraska as a favorite over Indiana in basketball. With that in mind, it most likely will produce a fair share of underdog bets just based on the perception of reach programs history on the hardwood. Give me Nebraska minus points.

Knicks @ Magic 7:10 PM ET

Game# 549-550

Play On: Knicks -119 (ML)

No analysis on today’s games due to time restrictions.

Nuggets @ Rockets 8:10 PM ET

Game# 567-568

Play On: Rockets +3.0

The defending NBA champion Denver Nuggets are just 3-4 SU and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games. Denver is a perfect 7-0 at home this season, but they’re an uninspiring 3-5 SU on the road and includes a dreadful 1-7 ATS in those contests.

Since losing their home opener, Houston has gone an unscathed 7-0 SU&ATS at home with 4 of those coming as an underdog. Their average margin of victory in those contests came by a decisive 16.0 points per game. Give me the Rockets plus points.

Nuggets @ Heat 8:30 ET

Game# 45-46

Play On: Denver -135 (10*)

Denver is coming off a disappointing 111-108 home loss in Game 2. However, the Nuggets are 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 on the road and when coming off a SU loss and outscored their opponents by 12.7 points per game. Furthermore, since the start of last season, Denver is 3-0 SU&ATS at Miami and won by an average of 13.4 points per game.

Since the 2017 NBA Postseason, any Game 3 away favorite of -1.5 or greater or less like Denver will be tonight, and they’re coming off a home favorite of 7.0 or greater upset loss, resulted in those Game 3 away favorites going 7-0 SU. The average margin of victory during those 7 games came by a decisive margin of 16.4 points per game.

Give me the Denver Nuggets as a money line wager.

Celtics @ Heat 8:30 PM ET

Game# 541-542

Play On: Celtics -150 (10*)

The Celtics have a strange home/away dichotomy during this year and last year’s Playoffs. Specifically speaking, they’ve gone 10-11 SU at home during that stretch and 12-6 SU during away games. Furthermore, if they were coming off a loss they improved to 7-1 SU&ATS on the road.

The Celtics are still a favorite after losing the first games of the series at home. Even despite the fact that Miami has won their last 6 at home this postseason. The sportsbooks are giving us the winner here with the road favorite. Especially when considering Miami is on a current 3-game win streak, and those previous 2 losses by the Celtics came as a point-spread favorite of 8.0 points or greater.

NBA money line favorites like Boston who are playing with revenge stemming from a SU loss as a favorite of 7.0 or more, versus an opponent like Miami who is coming off wins in their previous 2 games in which they were an underdog on each occasion, resulted in those teams going 32-4 (89%) since the 1996-1997 season.

Give me the Boston Celtics on the money line.

Warriors @ Lakers 10:00 PM ET

Game# 503-504

Play On: Lakers -2.5 (10*)

Golden State will try to stave off elimination for a 2nd time in 3 days. Nevertheless, that Game 5 win came at home. The Warriors are a miserable 11-34 on the road this season and that includes 5-21 when facing opponents with a winning record. Additionally, Golden State is a miserable 1-10 SU&ATS this season as a road underdog of 5.0 or less.

The Lakers are coming off a 121-106 loss at Golden State in Game 5 and they squandered an opportunity to close out the defending world champions. However, recent NBA Playoffs betting history shows that teams like the Lakers in this exact situation have been exceptional good. NBA Playoff home favorites of 8.0 or less that have a 3-2 series and are coming off a Game 5 loss by 11 points or more, resulted in in those home favorites going 7-0 SU&ATS since the 2008 NBA Playoffs. Furthermore, the average margin of victory during those 7 contests came by a substantial 17.2 points per game.

Give me the Lakers minus points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Nuggets @ Suns 10:00 PM ET

Game# 555-556

Play On: Nuggets +2.5 (10*)

Phoenix is coming off a 118-102 loss at Denver in Game 5 and failed to cover as a 6.5-point underdog. As a result, they’re facing elimination tonight as they’re down 3-2 in the series. The Suns are an impressive 32-14 at home this season. However, they’ve gone just 4-4 SU at home following an away underdog ATS loss in their previous game. Furthermore, Phoenix is a miserable 2-8 SU&ATS this season when their point-spread was +3.0 to -3.0 and they were coming off a SU loss in their previous game. That includes 0-5 SU&ATS in their last 5 in that exact scenario if they were coming off a loss by 10 points or more. The above numbers and results certainly don’t bode well for the Suns as a favorite in tonight’s game.

NBA Playoffs betting history supports #1 seed away underdogs like Denver who are attempting to close out a 7-game series. Any NBA Playoffs #1 seed like Denver that’s an away underdog of 5.0 or less while attempting to close out a 7-game series, and they’re coming off a SU win in their previous game, resulted in those top seeded away underdogs going 10-2 SU and 11-1 ATS since the 2005 postseason. Furthermore, that identical NBA Playoffs betting angle is a perfect 7-0 ATS and 6-1 SU since 2010.

Give me the Denver Nuggets plus points.

Lakers @ Warriors 10:00 PM ET

Game# 551-552

Play On: Warriors -7.0 (10*)

The Lakers have seized control of this series after winning Game 3 and 4 on their home floor to take a commanding 3-1 lead. However, look for an inspired effort from the defending world champion Warriors on their home floor. Since the 2014 NBA Playoffs, Golden State is 5-1 SU&ATS when facing elimination and coming off a loss in the previous game. The Warriors have also gone 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite following losses in each of their last 2 contests and won by an average of 12.5 points per game.

Give me the Golden State Warriors minus points for a highest rated 10* Top Play.

Knicks @ Cavaliers 7:00 PM ET

Game# 529-530

Play On: Cavaliers -5.5 (10*)

We have a sizable home favorite that trails this playoff series 3-1 and has lost the last 2 games. Must be awfully tempting for many bettors to take the underdog in that spot. However, I’m going with a contrarian approach in this spot. We saw the teams down 3-1 in their series go 2-1 ATS as underdogs last night. Additionally, Atlanta won their game SU as a +13.5 underdog at Boston and Minnesota lost by just 2 as a 10.0-point dog at #1 seed Denver. Both those teams were on the road while the Cavaliers will be at home this evening where they’ve gone 32-11 SU and 26-17 ATS this season. Furthermore, Cleveland is 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 as a home favorite of 12.0 or less immediately following 2 consecutive losses, and they won by a substantial average of 16.7 points per contest. The Cavaliers are just 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games played. Nevertheless, Cleveland is 9-1 ATS this season after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their previous 6 and outscored those 10 opponents by 16.6 points per game.

Give me the Cleveland Cavaliers minus the points.

Bucks @ Heat 3:30 PM ET

Game# 567-568

Play On: Heat +5.0 (10*)

Since the start of last season, Miami has gone 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS at home versus Milwaukee, and the average victory margin came by a whopping 18.3 points per contest. Additionally, they held the Bucks to 97 points or fewer in all 4 of those wins. So, there’s no denying they won’t be lacking for confidence in this pivotal game of series that’s tied up at 1-1. Furthermore, they knocked off the Bucks in the series opener 130-117 at Milwaukee. The logic being this isn’t your typical #8 vs. #1 seed first round matchup where the underdog looks overwhelmed and passive.

The Bucks did make 25 three-point shots in their Game 2 home win. However, that was on the heels of going 11-45 (24.4%) during the series opener. Speaking of 3-point shooting, Miami has shot a red-hot 31-61 (51.4%) from 3-point territory in the first 2 games of this series. The Heat have shot 51.2% or better from the field in 6 of their last 9 games. Conversely, the Bucks have allowed opponents to shoot 50% or better in their last 4 and 8 of their previous 11 games.

Give me the Miami Heat plus points.

Clippers @ Suns 10:00 PM ET

Game# 535-536

Play On: Suns -8.0 (10*)

Since the 1996 NBA Playoffs, the Clippers have gone a dismal 4-16 ATS on the road when leading a series. Additionally, this current line speaks volumes. Phoenix is a sizable favorite despite losing 3 in a row and they’re facing an opponent like the Clippers who have won 4 straight. The sportsbooks are begging you to take the underdog in this spot. Furthermore, the Clippers are 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS this season as an away underdog immediately following a game in which they won SU as an away underdog, and they were outscored by a substantial margin of 14.0 points per contest.

Phoenix is coming off a 115-110 home loss as a favorite of -7.5 in Game 1 of this series. NBA favorites like Phoenix who are playing with revenge stemming from a SU loss as a home favorite of 7.0 or greater, and they’re coming off a home favorite SU loss in their previous game, resulted in those teams going 39-10 ATS (79.6%) since the 2018-2019 season began. The average point-spread for those favorites was -6.8 and they outscored the underdogs by 13.8 points per game.

Give me the Phoenix Suns minus the points.

Chicago @ Miami 7:00 PM ET

Game# 569-570

Play On: Miami -5.5 (5*)

The good news for Bulls fans is they’re team has won 3 straight games. The bad news is Chicago hasn’t won 4 straight games all season. As a matter of fact, Chicago is 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS this season immediately following 3 consecutive wins and they were outscored by a decisive 13.8 points per game.

Miami is coming off a disappointing home loss to Atlanta on Tuesday.  The Heat are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 at home following a loss in their previous contest. That includes 3-0 SU&ATS during their previous 3 in that exact role and with an average victory margin of 10.7 points per game.

Public bettors will be leaning heavily on the underdog in this matchup based on what they just witnessed earlier this week from both teams. Additionally, Chicago is 3-0 in their last 3 versus Miami this season, and that will sway them toward the underdog even further. Yet, the odds-makers remain undeterred on those recent results and opened Miami as a sizable favorite with all being considered.

Give me the Miami Heat as a point-spread favorite.

San Diego State vs. Connecticut 9:20 PM ET

Game# 711-712

Play On: Under 132.5 (10*)

The only flaw that UConn has displayed defensively during their 5 NCAA Tournament games is allowing opponents to have an average of 19 free throw attempts per game. If you even want to label that as a flaw. However, San Diego State has been terrible from the free throw line during their 5 NCAA Tournament game while converting on just 63.4% of their free throw attempts. Otherwise, the Huskies have held all 5 of their opponents to 38.8% or worse while giving up a mere 59.2 points per contest. UConn has covered all 5 games in the big Dance. The Huskies have played 8-1 to the under this season when not playing at home and coming off covering each of their previous 3 games.

San Diego State is a 7.5-point underdog at the time of this writing. The Aztecs have played 8-0 to the under since 12/17/2021 and there were a combined 125.1 points scored per game. San Diego State is coming off a thrilling 72-71 buzzer beating win over FAU in a game that went over the total of 132.0. That snapped a string of 12 consecutive games going under the total for the Aztecs. As a matter of fact, they haven’t gone over the total in 2 straight games since January 10th. Furthermore, The Aztecs have played 5-0 to the under in their last 5 contests following an over in their previous outing and there was a combined average of 121.6 points scored per game. The Aztecs have also gone under in their last 5 after allowing 70 points or more during its previous contest and there was a combined 118.2 points scored per game.

According to Ken Pomeroy, San Diego State is #4 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency and UConn is #8. Additionally, UConn is #214 in adjust offensive temp and San Diego State is #270.

Give me this game to go under the total.

Miami vs. Connecticut 8:49 PM ET

Game# 703-704

Play On: Miami +5.5 (10*)

I really like this UConn team. Nevertheless, I believe this is a contest that will go down to the wire, and the Huskies will be hard pressed to cover a relatively high number with all considered. As a matter of fact, Miami has gone 9-1 ATS including 7-3 SU as an underdog this season. Additionally, if the Hurricanes were +3.5 or greater, they improved to 5-0 ATS and 4-1 SU for the season. Furthermore, their last 3 wins in the NCAA Tournament all came as an underdog versus #21 Indiana, #2 Houston, and #5 Texas. Those 3 teams finished with a cumulative record of 84-24 (.778). So, it’s not like the Canes had an easy path to reach the Final Four. On the other hand, UConn has yet to be challenged in their 4 NCAA Tournament wins with all of them coming by 15 points or more. Miami is a very difficult team to blow out with 6 of their 7 losses coming by 7 points or fewer, and 4 of those defeats were by narrow margins of 3 points or less.

Give me Miami plus the points.

San Diego State vs. Creighton 2:20 PM ET

Game# 657-658

Play On: San Diego State +2.5 (10*)

San Diego State is an elite defensive team with size, length, and athleticism. That will be the difference in the outcome of this game. During their 3 NCAA Tournament wins over Charleston, Furman, and Alabama, San Diego State allowed just 57.7 points per game while those 3 opponents shot a terrible 32.2% from the field. The Aztecs will also be playing with big time revenge stemming from a 3-point loss to Creighton in last year’s NCAA Tournament.

Creighton is coming off an 11-point win versus #15 seed Princeton and barely covered as a 10.0-point favorite despite shooting 58%. It will be a huge adjustment for them going from going up against the Ivy League champion to playing stingy defensive team like San Diego State. The Bluejays are averaging 9 three-point makes per game. However, San Diego State has gone 13-1 SU this season versus opponents who were averaging 8 or more 3-point shots made per game.

Give me San Diego State.

Farleigh-Dickinson vs. FAU 7:45 PM ET

Game# 843-844

Play On: FAU -15.0 (10*)

The oddsmakers are begging you to take the sentimental underdog and #16 seed Farleigh-Dickinson in this matchup. I believe we’ll see a similar type of result on Sunday that we saw on Saturday when San Diego State blew out Furman. San Diego State wasn’t going to take the underdog Paladins who upset Virginia in Round 1 lightly, and especially so with a Sweet 16 berth on the line. FAU finds itself in a similar position on Sunday versus a #16 seed who pulled off the massive upset over #1 seed Purdue in Round 1. The upstart FAU Owls is in no position to take any game for granted in the NCAA Tournament with being on the cusp of a first ever Sweet 16 appearance. Ken Pomeroy has FDU ranked #275 in the country, #353 in adjusted offensive efficiency, and #361 regarding strength of schedule.

Give me FAU minus the points.

Maryland vs. Alabama 9:40 PM ET

Game# 805-806

Play On: Alabama -8.5 (10*)

These teams met in the NCAA Tournament last season and Alabama walked away with a 96-77 win. I expect a similar type of result today. For starters, the game will be played in Birmingham which is about as close a home game for Alabama as you can possibly get, and I’m handicapping it as such. Alabama was a perfect 15-0 at home this season with an average victory margin of 24.5 points per game. Conversely, Maryland has gone 1-9 SU and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 on the road. Their only win came over Big 10 cellar dweller Minnesota.

Alabama has been locked in defensively over their previous 5 contests while holding their opponents to a combined 32.7% shooting from the field. On the other hand, Maryland has averaged just 64.6 points scored per game while shooting an uninspiring 42.5% throughout its previous 5 games.

Give me Alabama minus the points.

Northwestern vs. UCLA 8:40 PM ET

Game# 815-816

Play On: Northwestern +7.5 (10*)

I’m not going to poke holes in in the #7 UCLA Bruins (30-5) season resume because quite frankly there would be little to talk about. However, I do feel this will be a difficult number to cover. Northwestern possesses a veteran 3-guard veteran backcourt that’s very good and will be vital in us covering this contest. Furthermore, Northwestern has gone an extremely profitable 11-3 ATS this season as an underdog of 2.5 or greater and won 9 of those contests straight up. When tightening those numbers up even more, Northwestern improves to 7-1 ATS and 5-3 SU as an underdog of 2.5 or greater immediately following a SU win. The Wildcats are coming off Thursday NCAA Tournament 75-67 win over Boise State in a game they shot an impressive 49.1%. UCLA is #1 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. Nonetheless, Northwestern is pretty good as well with a #18 national ranking in that identical category.

Give me Northwestern plus the points.

Kent State vs. Indiana 9:55 PM ET

Game# 771-772

Play On: Kent State +4.5 (10*)

This line jumped right off the page at me. We have #21 Indiana as just a 4.0-point favorite versus unranked Kent State winners of the MAC Tournament. However, Kent State has proven it can play with the big boys this season. They lost at #2 Houston (31-3) by 5, #9 Gonzaga (28-5) by 7, and at CAA champion Charleston (31-3) by only 2. The Golden Flashes are 22-3 in their last 25 and includes a current 6-game win streak. Indiana went just 5-4 in their last 9 games. The Hoosiers did most of their damage at home this season where they went 15-2. Conversely, they were just 7-9 in away and neutral site games.

Give me Kent State plus the points.

Charleston vs. San Diego State 3:10 PM ET

Game# 737-738

Play On: San Diego State -5.0 (10*)

Charleston seems to be a popular pick when it comes to upsets on March Madness brackets being filled out by the public. After all, they’re 31-3 which includes 16-2 in conference play. However, as opposed to San Diego State, Charleston ranks #304 national in terms of strength of schedule and #232 with regards to its non-conference slate.

San Diego State (27-6) is the Mountain West Conference Tournament regular season and conference tournament champion. That’s nothing to make light off since the conference will be represented by 4 teams in the NCAA Tournament. The Aztecs have traditionally been an excellent defensive team. This season is no different since they rank #10 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Aztecs also played the 16th toughest non-conference schedule in the country. The Aztecs will also have a decided advantage when it comes to experience which should always be factored in when handicapping NCAA Tournament games.

Give me San Diego State minus the points.

Tulane vs. Wichita State 9:30 PM ET

Game# 827-828

Play On: Over 151.0 (10*)

Wichita State has seen 15 of their last 16 games go over the total. The Shockers have shot 50% or better in their last 4 and 7 of its previous 9 games.

Tulane has played 14-4-1 to the over in their last 19 games. The Green Wave have scored 78 points or more in each of their last 5 and 7 of its previous 8 games.

These teams played twice during regular season action with each contest going over the total and there were 185 and 163 combined points scored in those contests.

Give me this game to go over the total.

UNLV @ Nevada 5:00 PM ET

Game# 667-668

Play On: Nevada -8.5 (5*)

UNLV is coming off a terrible 25-point home blowout loss to Utah State in their previous game. The Rebels have now lost 4 of its last 5 while shooting a terrible 38.7% throughout that stretch.

Nevada is coming off an 80-71 upset loss at Wyoming. However, the Wolfpack is 7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS following a loss this season. Nevada is also 14-0 at home and that includes 8-0 SU and 6-1-1 ATS when facing conference opponents. The Wolfpack will be also out to atone for a 68-62 loss at UNLV earlier this season.

Give me Nevada minus the points.

New York @ Miami 8:10 PM ET

Game# 553-554

Play On: New York -2.5 (5*)

Miami has been slumping which is evidenced by them going 1-5 SU&ATS in their last 6 games. The Heat have scored 108 points or fewer in each of its previous 8 games. It’s very difficult to win in this NBA modern era with that kind of poor offensive scoring numbers.

New York enters today a red-hot 7-0 SU&ATS in their last 7 and won by a decisive margin of 16.0 points per game. During this sizzling hot run they’ve averaged 123.7 points scored per game and shot a combined 51.5% from the field. The Knicks most latest win came at home over Brooklyn 142-118. New York is 4-0 SU&ATS this season on the road immediately following a road double-digit win and they won by an average of 13.0 points per game.

Give me New York minus the points.

Virginia @ North Carolina 6:00 PM ET

Game# 713-714

Play On: North Carolina -3.0 (10*)

This line jumped right off the page at me. We have an unranked North Carolina team which has lost 5 of its last 7 games as a favorite over the #6 ranked team in the country. They’re begging you to take the underdog in this spot. I’m not falling for the bait. 

Give me North Carolina minus the points.

Michigan State @ Michigan 8:00 PM ET

Game# 777-778

Play On: Michigan -130 (10*)

Michigan State has gone 1-3 SU&ATS in their last 4 conference away games. Their lone win that sequence came over a struggling Ohio State team that has lost its last 7 and 12 of their previous 13 games.

Michigan lost their last 2 games by 1 to Indiana and by versus Wisconsin. However, the Wolverines haven’t lost 3 consecutive games in a row all season. Michigan is a perfect 4-0 SU&ATS this season following losses in each of its previous 2 contests and won by an average of 18.5 points per game and all were versus Big 10 opponents. Michigan is 6-2 SU in conference home games this season with their only losses coming by 5 versus #3 Purdue (23-4) and against #14 Indiana (18-8) by 1. Today’s opponent Michigan State is unranked. The Wolverines are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS this season in conference home games when facing unranked opponents and won by an average of 14.2 points per game.

Give me Michigan on the money line.

UCF @ Memphis 8:00 PM ET

Game# 799-800

Play On: Over 149.0 (10*)

Earlier this season there would be no possible chance I would bet a UCF game to go over a number that neared or surpassed 150.0. Nevertheless, much has changed between then and now. These teams played a 2-overtime thriller earlier this season which saw UCF pull out a 107-104 win. However, that game was 78-78 at the end of regulation time which still would have sailed over that total of just 135.5.

During their previous 5 contests, Memphis has averaged 90.6 points scored per game, shot 50.2% from the field, and made 38.7% of its 3-point shot attempts. Conversely, UCF has averaged 74.6 points scored per game, made 40.9% of its 3-point shot attempts, and made an average of 11 three-point shots per outing throughout their previous 5 contests. Memphis averages 24 free throw attempts and allows 24 free throw attempts per game this season. UCF is #1 in American Athletic Conference action in free throw percentage at 80.7%. Memphis is pretty good themselves in converting on 75.3% of its free throws in conference games.

UCF has played 8-0 to the over this season immediately following playing in 3 straight conference games and there was a combined 156.9 points scored per contest. The Golden Knights have also played 7-0-2 to the over in their last 9 games overall. Memphis has gone over in their last 3 and there was a combined 174.0 points scored per game.

Give me this game to go over the total.

Texas @ Kansas State 4:00 ET

Game# 666-700

Play On: Over 149.0 (10*)

These teams met earlier this season in Austin and Kansas State walked away with a 116-103 win, and no there wasn’t any overtime. There were a combined 59 free throw attempts in that contest and the team went and made 53 of them for an excellent 89.8% conversion rate. Not to mention, combining to go 24-51 (47.1%) on 3-point shot attempts. I am not predicting those gaudy numbers will repeat themselves in this one, but I do think will see a similar volume of attempts in each category. By the way, these teams have now gone over the total in each of the last 6 times they’ve met.

Texas has played 11-3 to the over in their last 14 games. The Longhorns are coming off a 76-71 home win versus Baylor and that contest barely went under the total of 148.5. Texas has played 6-0 to the over off a conference win this season and there was a combined 162.9 points scored per game. Texas has also played over in their last 4 immediately after an under and there was a combined 162.3 points scored per game.

Kansas State has played 5-0 to the over this season whenever there was a total of 143.5 or greater and it produced a combined 165.4 points scored per game. Throughout their previous 5 games, the Wildcats averaged an enormous 28 free throw attempts per game and made an outstanding 76.1% of those tries. That’s good news considering Texas allows 24 free throw attempts per game in conference play. Kansas State has also made a very good 38% of their 3-point shot attempts in conference play.

Give me this game to go over the total.

Indiana @ Maryland 9:00 PM ET

Game# 643-644

Play On: Maryland -2.5 (10*)

Indiana is coming off a home blowout win over Ohio State. However, it must be noted that Indiana is currently a money line underdog of +130 in this matchup. Since the start of the 2020-2021 season, Indiana is 0-10 SU as a money line road underdog of +200 or less and lost by an average of 11.0 points per game. They were in that situation twice this season and lost at Penn State by 19 and at Kansas by 22.

Maryland is 11-1 SU at home this season with their lone defeat coming against an extremely good UCLA team. Nevertheless, the Terrapins are a perfect 5-0 SU&ATS in conference home games this season with an average victory margin of 11.2 points per game.

Give me Maryland minus the points.

Iowa State @ Kansas 4:00 PM ET

Game# 709-710

Play On: Iowa State +8.5 (10*)

There’s no denying how good the defending national champion Kansas Jayhawks are. The Jayhawks are 15-1 with their lone defeat coming versus a Tennessee who is a serious national title contender. However, since the 2020-2021 season, Kansas is 1-8 ATS in January home games with just a +1.3 point per game differential. Kansas is 2-0 at home in conference thus far but those victories over Oklahoma and Oklahoma State came by just a combined 6 points.

Iowa State can be extremely frustrating to play against. They play at a snail’s pace offensively, are #6 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, and #1 in forcing turnovers. This is also a very experienced Cyclones team that won’t be rattled by a hostile environment. Iowa State is coming off an 84-50 home blowout win over a solid Texas Tech team. That win improved their season record to 13-2 and includes 4-0 during Big 12 Conference games.

Give me Iowa State plus the points.

Duke @ Xavier 3:30 PM ET

Game# 911-912

Play On: Duke -4.5 (10*)

Xavier enters this Phil Knight Invitational Semifinal having in Portland. Oregon having scored an average of 85.8 points scored per game this season. The Musketeers have also allowed 81 points or more in each of their previous 2 games. College Basketball neutral site favorites versus an opponent that averages 84.0 or more points scored per game who also allowed 80 points or greater in each of their last 2 games, resulted in those favorites going 39-13 ATS (75%) since 1997. The average line for those favorites during those 37 contests was 5.8 and they outscored their opponents by an average of 10.2 points per game.

Give me Duke minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Kent State @ Charleston 6:00 PM ET

Game# 693-694

Play On: Charleston -2.0 (10*)

Kent State is 5-0 but they have played a substantially weaker schedule than 4-1 Charleston has faced. Charleston’s lone loss came at #1 North Carolina by 16 and they led that contest by 8 points at the half. Charleston has recorded quality wins over Davidson, Colorado State, and Virginia Tech. They’re battle tested and are a perfect 5-0 at home while covering 4 of those contests.

Give me Charleston minus the small number.

Warriors @ Celtics 9:00 PM ET

Game# 527-528

Play On: Celtics -3.5 (10*)

Boston is coming off a disappointing 104-94 loss in Game 5 at Golden State. The Celtics have now lost 2 straight and find themselves on the brink of elimination with a 3-2 series deficit. However, the Celtics haven’t lost 3 consecutive games since 12/29/2021. As a matter of fact they’re 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in their last 4 following 2 consecutive losses and won by an average of 18.3 points per contest. Golden State enters tonight’s game with a season record of 68-35 (.660).

Any NBA Playoff home favorite of 7.0 or less (Celtics) that’s playing in a Game 6, and is coming off a loss in which they scored less than 100 points, versus an opponent (Warriors) with a season record of .636 to .736, resulted in those home favorites going 10-0 SU&ATS since 2004. Those home teams won those 10 contests by a decisive margin of 14.9 points per game. Give me the Celtics minus the points for a Top Play.

Celtics @ Warriors 9:00 PM ET

Game# 525-526

Play On: Celtics +4.0 (10*)

The Celtics missed a golden opportunity to give themselves a commanding 3-1 series lead following their 107-97 home loss to Golden State in Game 4. Nevertheless, Boston has gone a perfect 7-0 SU&ATS during these playoffs following a loss and outscored their opponents by a decisive margin of 15.6 points per game. The Celtics are also a very successful 7-3 SU and 7-2-1 ATS on the road during these 2022 NBA Playoffs. Furthermore, the Celtics are 10-2 ATS this season following a loss by 10 points or more with a sizable +11.1 points per game differential. Give me the Celtics plus the points for a 10* Top Play.

Golden State @ Boston 9:00 PM ET

Game# 523-524

Play On: Boston -3.5 (10*)

Boston is coming off a 116-100 win over Golden State in Game 3 on Wednesday night an easily covered as a 3.5-point home favorite. This sets up a terrific NBA Playoff betting angle which is displayed below.

Any NBA Playoffs home favorite of 5.0 or less that’s playing in Game 4 of a series and is coming off a home favorite ATS win in which they covered by 6.0 to 24.0 points, resulted in those Game 4 home favorites going 14-1 SU&ATS since 2010. If that point-spread was 2.5 to 5.0 points the home favorite improves to 10-0 ATS with an average victory margin of 11.8 points per game. Give me Boston minus the points for a Top Play wager.

Golden State @ Boston 9:00 PM ET

Game# 521-522

Play On: Boston -3.5 (10*)

Golden State has been terrific at home during these 2022 NBA Playoffs with a 10-1 record. Nonetheless, they’ve gone a concerning 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS during their last 6 on the road. The Warriors enter today with a season record of 66-34 (.660).

Boston is coming off a 107-88 loss in Game 2 at Golden State which evened this NBA Finals series at 1-1. However, the Celtics have been a resilient bunch during the postseason following a loss while going 6-0 SU&ATS and winning by a decisive average of 15.5 points per game. As a matter of fact, Boston hasn’t lost 2 consecutive games since 3/30. This will be the 1st NBA Finals home game for the Celtics faithful since 2010 and the atmosphere at TD Garden tonight promises to be electric thus giving an additional energy boost to their beloved team.

Any NBA Playoff Game 3 home favorite of 2.5 to 4.5 points (Boston) that’s coming off an away SU&ATS loss in which they failed to cover by 15.0 or less, and it evened the series at 1-1, and is facing an opponent (Golden State) with a win percentage of .690 or less, resulted in those Game 3 home teams going 10-0 SU&ATS since 1996. The home teams won those 10 contests by an average of 10.7 points per game. Give me the Celtics minus the points for my NBA Playoff Game of the Year.

Celtics @ Warriors 8:00 PM ET

Game# 519-52

Play On: Boston +4.5 (10*)

The early betting on this game has heavily sided with the home favorite Golden State Warriors. Yet, this line opened at 4.0 and is currently still at 4.0 at most betting parlors. The sportsbooks have been unfazed by the onslaught of action wagered on the home side while refusing to move off the opening line. Since the Celtics are coming off a 120-108 win in Game 1 on Thursday night, their remains many NBA bettors that still subscribe to the zig-zag theory as being a no brainer concept at playoff time. There is also a consensus opinion out there giving little if any chance the Golden State will lose 2 straight at home, especially after starting the postseason 9-0 in San Francisco, and going 40-11 this season on their home floor all year. Hence, the predictable heavy action on the Warriors. Much ado has been given to the Warriors home court prowess during these playoffs, and rightfully so. Nevertheless, we must not forget that Boston is 8-2 SU and 8-1-1 ATS on the road during the postseason while facing very good opponents in Brooklyn, Milwaukee, and Miami.

These teams are being lauded as being elite defensively. Boston has certainly earned that reputation for their play during regular season action in which they were #1 in many defensive categories. Despite giving up 108 to Golden State in Game 1, the Celtics have held their last 5 playoff opponents to 95.3 points scored per game. Furthermore, Boston has allowed 96 points or fewer in 5 of their previous 10 contests. Conversely, Golden State has allowed 110 points or more in 4 of their previous 5 games.

Boston is coming off a 120-108 win at Golden State on Thursday and did so as a 3.5-point underdog. That defeat dropped the Warriors season record to 65-34 (.657). Any NBA Finals away underdog of 6.0 or less (Boston) that’s coming off an away underdog SU win in which they allowed 110 points or fewer, versus an opponent (Golden State) with a win percentage of .707 or less, resulted in those away underdogs going 4-0 SU&ATS since 1991. The away underdogs not only won all 4 of those contests straight up, but they did so by a decisive margin of 14.5 points per game. The average line in those 4 games was 4.7. Give me the Celtics plus the points for a Top Play wager.

Celtics @ Golden State 9:00 PM ET

Game# 517-518

Play On: Celtics +3.5 (10*)

Golden State is a perfect 9-0 SU at home during these 2022 NBA Playoffs. However, Boston is 7-2 SU and 7-1-1 ATS on the road in this postseason. Golden State has been a heavily wagered on side thus far according to public betting patterns. Afterall, they have a huge edge in NBA Finals experience and will be facing a Celtics team coming off back-to-back series that have gone an entire 7 games. Additionally, Golden State will be playing on an extra 3 days of rest compared to Boston in Game 1. Thus, public perception and betting trends being lopsided toward Golden State.

However, Boston has gone 19-9 ATS as an underdog this season including 5-2 SU and 5-1-1 ATS in the playoffs. The Celtics have also won their last 4 and 6 of its previous 7 played at Golden State. That includes a 22-point win at Golden State on 3/16. The Celtics were tremendous defensively against Miami in the Eastern Conference Finals, and especially so during the last 5 in that series when they held the Heat to 95.6 points scored per game and an atrocious 39.6% shooting. Granted Golden State will present more challenges offensively than Miami. Nonetheless, the Heat are more committed defensively than Golden State. Boston has defeated Brooklyn with Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, defending world champion Milwaukee, and #1 Eastern Conference seed Miami to reach the Finals. A far tougher path than Golden State has taken. Give me Boston plus the points for a Top Play wager.

Celtics @ Heat 8:30 PM ET

Game# 953-954

Play On: Celtics -2.5 (10*)

This will be just the 3rd time since 1991 NBA Playoffs that we have a Game 7 road favorite. That speaks volumes to me. Not only are the Celtics a Game 7 road favorite, but it comes after a Game 6 home loss and them squandering a chance to advance to the NBA Finals. The sportsbooks are dangling the carrot to take the home underdog in this win or go home matchup. I am not taking the bait.

Any NBA Game 7 away team with a point-spread of +3.0 to -3.0 and there was a total of 203.0 or less, resulted in those road teams going 5-0 SU&ATS since 1991. The average margin of victory was 7.0-points per game. Give me Boston minus the points for a Top Play wager.

Heat @ Celtics 8:30 PM ET

Game# 505-506

Play On: Over 201.5 (10*)

Miami just can’t possibly play any worse offensively than they did in their Games 4 and 5 losses. They were just a combined 60-184 (32.6%) shooting and scored 80 and 82 points. The Heat were embarrassed in a 93-80 home loss to Boston in Game 5 and were outscored 57-39 during 2nd half action. However, Miami has played 11-2 to the over on the road this season following a loss by 10 or more and there was a combined 222.4 points scored per game. Each of the last 2 games in this series went under. Boston has played 5-1 to the over at home this season following 2 consecutive games going under. Play on this game to go over the total for a Top Play wager.

Celtics @ Heat 8:30 PM ET

Game# 501-502

Play On: Miami +2.5 (10*)

Miami is coming off a terrible performance in Game 4 at Boston on Monday which resulted in a 102-82 blowout loss. However, the Heat have gone 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 at home following a loss and won by a massive average of 27.3 points per game. Despite that lopsided loss, Miami still held Boston to just 39% shooting. Miami is 7-0 SU&ATS in their last 7 following a game in which they held their opponent to less than 40% shooting and won by an average of 15.0 points per game. Furthermore, the Heat have gone 20-1 SU this season following a game in which there was a combined 205 points or less scored. Lastly, Boston has gone a dismal 1-5 SU&ATS in their last 6 following a win and all those contests took place in the playoffs. Give me the Heat plus the small number for a Top Play wager.

Golden State @ Dallas 9:00 PM ET

Game# 567-568

Play On: Over 215.5 (10*)

Golden State holds a commanding 3-0 series lead following a 109-100 win at Dallas on Sunday.  That contest went under the total of 216.5. Golden State has played 6-1 to the over in their last 7 following a game which went under the total and there was a combined 233.3 points scored per game. Additionally, Golden State scored 121.1 points per game throughout those 7 contests. Conversely, Dallas has averaged 114.0 points scored per contest in their last 15 this season following an outing in which they scored 100 points or fewer.

Since the 1991 NBA Playoffs, visiting teams that hold a 3-0 series lead and there’s a total of 214.0 or greater, resulted in those games playing 8-1 (88.9%) to the over. The average total in those 9 postseason contests was 220.8 and there were a combined 234.3 points scored per game. Play on this game to go over the total for a Top Play.

Heat @ Celtics 8:30 PM ET

Game# 565-566

Play On: Under 206.5 (10*)

These teams have a combined 8 players that are listing as questionable for tonight’s game. There’s a good chance that most will play and be less than 100% which is typical at this time of year. More times than not, teams in this situation lose more offensively than defensively.

The first 3 games of this series have all gone over the total. Miami has played 3-0 to the under in their last 3 games following 3 straight overs. Miami is coming off an upset win in Game 3 at Boston. However, Boston has allowed just an average of 97.5 points per game this season immediately following 1 of their 17 straight up favorite losses. Furthermore, the Celtics have allowed only 97.8 points scored per game in their last 4 games immediately following a loss. Give me this game to go under the total for a Top Play.

Mavericks @ Warriors 9:00 PM ET

Game# 563-564

Play On: Dallas -125 (10*)

Dallas lost the first 2 games of this series and allowed Golden State to shoot exactly 56.1% on both occasions. However, the Mavericks haven’t lost 3 straight games since 12/7/2021. Additionally, they’ve gone 7-2 SU this season immediately following 2 consecutive losses and that includes 5-0 SU in their last 5. It’s also worth noting that Dallas is 5-0 SU&ATS following 2 straight games in which they allowed opponents to shoot 50% or better and they won by an average of 16.0 points per game. Dallas is currently a money line home favorite of -125. The Mavericks have gone an unblemished 16-0 this season as a money line home favorite of -250 or less. Give me Dallas on the money line for a Top Play wager.

Mavericks @ Warriors 9:00 PM ET

Game# 647-648

Play On: Mavericks +6.5 (10*)

Dallas is coming off a terrible 112-87 loss in the series opener on Wednesday. The Mavericks were held to 36% shooting and were dominated on the boards 51-35. However, this is a very resilient Dallas team that’s gone 10-0 SU this season following a loss by 20 points or more and outscored opponents by 13.2 points per game. Dallas is also 7-0 SU&ATS in their last 7 this season after shooting worse than 40% during its previous game and won by 14.9 points per contest. Lastly, the Mavericks are 12-1 SU during their last 13 following a game they scored less than 100 points. Give me the Mavericks plus the points for a Top Play wager.

Celtics @ Heat 8:30 PM ET

Game# 543-544

Play On: Boston +3.5 (10*)

Boston is coming off an opening game 118-107 loss at Miami and failed to cover as a 4.0-point underdog. Boston has gone a terrific 10-1 SU in their last 11 following a loss in their previous game, and that includes 3-0 SU&ATS in the playoffs with an average victory margin 14.7 points per contest. The Celtics will also welcome NBA Defensive Player of the Year Marcus Smart back to the lineup after he missed Game 1 due to a foot injury.

Since the 2011 NBA Playoffs, any away underdog of 4.5 or less that’s playing in a Game 2 and is coming off an away underdog ATS loss in which they failed to cover by 20.0-points or less, resulted in those away underdogs going 9-0 ATS. Furthermore, those away underdogs won 8 of those 9 games straight up. Give me Boston plus the points for a Top Play wager.

Mavericks @ Warriors 9:00 PM ET

Game# 539-540

Play On: Mavericks +5.0 (10*)

Dallas has gone 3-1 SU&ATS versus Golden State this season. The Mavericks recently concluded a huge upset win over #1 seed Phoenix in their previous series which was culminated with a decisive 123-90 road win in Game 7. Dallas is 8-0 ATS this season after allowing 90 points or fewer in their previous contest and outscored their opponents by an average of 16.4 points per game. The Mavericks are also 15-3 SU this season following a game in which they allowed 95 points or fewer. During their last 3 games in the Conference Semifinals versus Memphis, Golden State only averaged 102.0 points scored per contest while shooting a poor 41.2% from the field. Give me the Mavericks plus the points for a Top Play wager.

Celtics @ Heat 8:45 PM ET

Game# 535-536

Play On: Celtics +2.0 (10*)

The Celtics are 4-1 SU and 4-0-1 ATS on the road thus far in the 2022 NBA Playoffs. Their only blemish came in Game 3 at Milwaukee when they fell by just 2 points after Al Horford’s potential last second game tying tip was waved off and deemed to be just after time had expired. The Celtics have also gone a noteworthy 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 games played in Miami. Boston has an impressive +7.4 point per game differential on the road this season. During their 3 regular season meetings versus Miami, Boston held the Heat to a mere 92.0 points scored per game and 40.5% shooting. During their 7-game series win over Milwaukee, Boston held a potent offensive team like the Bucks to just 97.7 points per contest. Lastly, it’s really odd to seed a #1 seed as just a 2.0-point home favorite in Game 1 of a Conference Finals, not to mention that the Heat are a money line underdog of +150 to win the series. Give me Boston plus the small number for a Top Play wager.

Bucks @ Celtics 3:30 PM ET

Game# 523-524

Play On: Celtics -4.5 (10*)

Boston has exhibited exactly why they were #1 in overall defensive efficiency during regular season action. Throughout the first 6 games of this series versus Milwaukee they held the Bucks to 110.5 points scored per game and 42.2% shooting. They will carry the momentum carried over from a convincing 108-95 win in Game 6 at Milwaukee. Boston has already lost twice at home in this series. I deem it to be highly improbable that a team that played so well during the 2nd half of the season will lose 3 at home in a single playoff series and is even more likely to win by a comfortable margin.

The Celtics forced a Game 7 with an impressive 108-95 win at Milwaukee on Thursday night. That win improved the Celtics season record to 58-34 (.630). Any NBA Playoff team that’s a home favorite of 4.0 to 6.5-points in a Game 7, and they possess a win percentage of .626 or better, and they allowed 98 points or fewer in their previous game, resulted in those Game 7 home favorites going 7-0 SU&ATS. The home teams also outscored their 7 opponents by a decisive average of 15.6 points per game. The home team only allowed an average of 88.3 points per game during those 7 contests. Give me the Celtics minus the points for a Top Play wager.

Celtics @ Bucks 7:30 PM ET

Game# 516-517

Play On: Celtics +1.5 (10*)

The defending world champion Milwaukee Bucks are coming off a thrilling 110-107 comeback win at Boston on Wednesday. The Bucks overcame a 14-point early 4th quarter deficit and trailed by 6 with less than 2 minutes left. Yet, they’re just a 1.5-point favorite with a chance to close the series at home and prevent going back to Boston for a Game 7. As I have stated on too many times to remember, “think like a bookmaker”. If it looks too easy, then most times it is when it’s regarding sports betting. This is a textbook example of such.

Any away team (Celtics) with a win percentage of .700 or less that’s playing in a Game 6 during the first 2 rounds of the NBA Playoffs and is coming off a home favorite SU loss in Game 5, resulted in those away teams going 20-2 ATS (91%) since 2000. Those away teams also went 21-3 SU (.875) in those contests as well. Give me Boston plus the small number for a Top Play wager.

Phoenix @ Dallas 9:30 PM ET

Game# 909-910

Play On: Dallas +2.0 (10*)

Dallas is coming off a brutal performance during Tuesday night’s 110-80 loss at Phoenix and now finds itself down 3-2 in this series, and on the brink of elimination. However, this is a Mavericks team that’s shown excellent recuperative powers following a lopsided loss. Specifically speaking, Dallas is a perfect 8-0 SU this season following a road loss by 20 points or more and they won by an average of 11.5 points per game. The Mavericks are also 14-1 SU since the start of last season following any loss by 20 points or greater. This is also a Mavericks team which is 33-13 SU (.715) at home this season. Phoenix is just 2-3 on the road in the playoffs after going a terrific 32-9 during regular season away games. Give me Dallas plus the small number for a Top Play.

Bucks @ Celtics 7:00 PM ET

Game# 507-508

Play On: Celtics -5.0 (10*)

The Celtics have held one of the better offensive teams in the NBA to 99.5 points scored per game and 42.1% shooting throughout the first 4 games of this series. Furthermore, during the previous 3 games of the series, Milwaukee is a terrible 21-79 (26.6%) from beyond the 3-point line. Additionally, during those 3 contests Boston has outscored Milwaukee in the 4th quarters by a combined score of 103-71. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to draw the conclusion that Milwaukee is obviously wearing down late in game while the Celtics keep getting stronger. 

Any NBA home favorite of 6.0 or less (Celtics) that’s play in a Round 2 Game 5 of a playoff series and is coming off an away underdog SU win by 5 points or more, resulted in those reasonably sized home favorites going 8-0 SU&ATS since 1991. Those 8 home favorites won those contests by a decisive average of 20.0 points per game. Give me the Celtics minus the points for a Top Play wager.

76ers @ Heat 7:30 PM ET

Game# 501-502

Play On: 76ers +3.0 (10*)

The 76ers are obviously a different team when Joel Embiid is healthy and able to play. They lost the first 2 games of this series by sizable margins. However, Embiid returned in Game 3 and Philadelphia went 2-0 SU&ATS since. Additionally, Jimmy Butler of Miami accounted for 73 of Miami’s 187 points (39%) in those 2 losses, and the 76ers prevented any other Heat players from putting up any big numbers. That recent defensive strategy has worked, and l look for it to be continued in Game 5. Give me the 76ers plus the points for a Top Play wager.

Celtics @ Bucks 7:30 PM ET

Game# 581-582

Play On: Boston +1.5 (10*)

Down 2-1 in the series, I look for Boston to be playing with an extremely high degree of desperation and urgency. Boston is coming off a 103-10 loss at Milwaukee in Game 3. Nonetheless, the Celtics are 7-1 SU&ATS in their last 8 following a loss. Their only blemish to that recent team trend was a loss at Miami in a game that Boston was without its 2 top scorers Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum. Furthermore, Boston shot a miserable 36% in that Game 3 loss on Saturday. The Celtics are an unscathed 6-0 SU&ATS during their last 6 following a game in which they shot less than 40% and won by a decisive margin of 14.8 points per contest. Give me the Celtics on the money line.

Memphis @ Golden State 8:30 PM ET

Game 573-574

Play On: Over 225.0 (10*)

Just as I expected, the public has overreacted to Game 2 easily going under the total of 227.5 during a Memphis 106-101 win. However, the oddsmakers were undeterred by that result and made just a slight adjust to an opening total of 226.5 for Game 3. Let’s not forget, Golden State won the series opener 117-116 in a game that was extremely entertaining to watch. Furthermore, the pace of the first 2 games of the series was lightning fast with a combined 188 and 186 field goal attempts which is extremely high by even NBA standards. Lastly, Memphis has played 16-5 to the over this season whenever there was a total of 220.0 to 229.5. Give me this game to go over the total for a Top Play wager.

Bucks @ Celtics 7:05 PM ET

Game# 531-532

Play On: Celtics -4.5 (10*)

The Celtics are coming off an embarrassing 101-89 loss in Game 1. There was a lot of rarities that occurred for that to happen which are highly improbable to occur again in Game 2.

It was just the 5th time that Boston had scored 95 points or less since 12/10/21. The good news for Celtics backers is their team has gone 4-0 SU&ATS since that time immediately after scoring 95 or less and won by an average of 15.3 points per contest. Despite that low scoring output, Boston still was a respectable 18-50 (36%) on their 3-point shot attempts. Unfortunately, they went a horrendous 10-34 from inside the 3-point line. That’s an extremely rare occurrence for an NBA team to not only make just 10 two-point field goal attempts in a game, but also nearly doubling that output from 3-point territory, and especially so for a quality group like the Celtics.

Lastly, the Celtics shot a miserable 33.3% from the field overall. Boston has gone 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 this season following a contest in which they shot less than 40% and outscored those opponents by an average of 15.2 points per game. Conversely, since the start of last season, Milwaukee is 0-4 SU&ATS after holding their opponent to 35% or worse shooting in their previous contest, and they were outscored by an average of 11.5 points per game. Give me Boston minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.