Sports Picks & Predictions

Timberwolves @ Nuggets 10:30 PM ET

Game# 519-520

Play On: Nuggets -4.0

The home teams are 0-4 in this series which is a real rarity. However, I strongly believe that pattern ends tonight. Since last season, Denver has gone 8-0 SU at home following road wins in each of their last 2 and won by a decisive margin of 13.3 points per game. Denver is also 4-0 at home this season following back-to-back road wins and with an average victory margin of 14.6 points per game.

The Nuggets are coming off a115-107 win at Minnesota in Game 4. Since the 2016 NBA Playoffs, Game 5 home with a point-spread of 0.0 to -5.0 with the series tied at 2-2, and they’re coming off a road win in which they allowed 107 points or fewer, resulted in those home teams going 5-0 SU&ATS. The average line in those 5 contests was 4.1 and the margin of victory came by a substantial 17.4 points per game. Give me the Nuggets minus points.

Thunder @ Mavericks 9:30 PM ET

Game# 515-516

Play On: Under 215.5

Dallas has played 4-1 to the under this postseason when the total was between 210.0 to 219.5 and there were a combined average of only 205.4 points scored per game.You can make a strong case for Dallas being the most improved defensive team over their last quarter of regular season action. Oklahoma City has allowed 105 points or fewer in 6 of their 7 playoff games and allowed a mere average of 96.7 points per game. The Thunder have held 7 of their previous 11 opponents to less than 40% shooting. Give me this game to go under the total.

Nuggets @ Timberwolves 8:00 PM ET

Game# 511-512

Play On: Nuggets +3.0

After being embarrassed in the first 2 games of this series at home, Denver responded with a convincing 117-90 win at Minnesota in Game and did so as a 3.5-point underdog. Denver has gone a perfect 8-0 SU this season after allowing 99 points or fewer in their previous contest. The Nuggets are also 3-0 SU&ATS this season on the road following a win in their previous contest and outscored those opponents by 14.7 points per game. Denver is also 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 as an underdog. Conversely, Minnesota has gone 1-6-1 ATS this season as a home favorite of between 3.0 and 6.0 points. The Timberwolves lost 5 of those 8 games straight up as well.

Since the 2012 NBA Playoffs away underdog of 5.0 or less that are playing after Game 3 of a series, and they’re coming off an away underdog SU win by 10 points or more, resulted in those away underdogs going 6-0 SU&ATS. Those away underdogs in that specific role outscored their opponents by an average of 14.7 points per game. Give me the Nuggets plus points.

Royals (Ragans) @ Angels (Anderson) 9:38 PM ET

Game# 951-952

Play On: Under 8.0

The Royals Cole Ragans has been brilliant in 3 road starts this season with an 0.47 ERA while averaging 6.3 innings pitcher per start. The Angels Tyler Anderson has a shiny 2.50 ERA/1.11 WHIP during 3 home starts in 2024. The Los Angeles bullpen has an impressive 0.81 WHIP over their previous 7 games. The Halos have scored exactly 1 run in 5 of their last 9 games. Give me this game to go under the total.

Celtics @ Cavaliers 8:30 PM ET

Game# 507-508

Play On: Celtics -7.5

The Celtics were in a similar season in Game 3 of the 1st round at Miami. They had just come off a Game 2 home double-digit favorite 111-101 loss to Miami and were a 9.5-point road favorite in the following game. Boston won that contest with ease 104-84. Now they’re coming off an embarrassing 118-94 Game 2 loss to Cleveland as a 13.5-point home favorite. I expect them to bounce back in a big way similar to what they did against Miami. Additionally, Cleveland is 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 this postseason following a win and were outscored by an average of 23.3 points per game. Give me the Celtics minus points

Nationals (Irvin) @ Red Sox (Criswell) 4:10 PM ET

Game# 927-928

Play On: Under 8.5

The Red Sox Cooper Criswell has an impressive 1.47 ERA/0.98 WHIP during 4 starts this season. Boston’s bullpen has been terrific is 15 days games this season while compiling a staff 2.53 ERA/1.18 WHIP. The Red Sox has gone under in 7 consecutive games when the total has been 8.0 or greater. Boston has also played 7-0 to the under this season versus teams like Washington who average 2.75 or fewer extra base hits per game.

Jake Irvin of the Nationals has recorded a very good 2.25 ERA/0.91 WHIP during 4 road starts this season. He’s also been solid in 4-day game starts with a 2.86 ERA/1.18 WHIP. Give me this game to go under the total.

Knicks @ Pacers 7:00 PM ET

Game# 501-502

Play On: Pacers -6.5

The Pacers are coming off a 130-121 loss in Game 2 at New York on Wednesday night. Indiana has gone 10-0 SU and 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 this season following a game in which they scored 130 points or more. Indiana is also 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 at home immediately following an away loss in their previous game. The average line for Indiana in those 4 games was -7.4 and they won by a substantial margin of 24.2 points per game.

Conversely, the Knicks are 0-3 SU&ATS this season following a game in which they allowed 130 points or more and they lost by an average of 10.0 points per game. We must also keep in mind; the Knicks will be a shorthanded team in this one with 3 key players out for the year and O.G Anunoby listed as questionable after suffering a hamstring in Wednesday’s 1st half. They also loss center Mitchell Robinson for the season after he suffered ankle injury in Game 1 of this series. Not to mention Bojan Bogdanovich who was injured during the Knicks opening round win over Philadelphia and is ruled out for the season. Not to mention Jalen Brunson missing the entire 2nd quarter in Wednesday’s win while receiving treatment for n injured food and NBA all-star Julius Randle was lost for the year during their last month of regular season action.

Any NBA Playoffs Game 3 home favorite -4.0 to -9.5 that’s coming off away SU&ATS underdog losses in the first 2 games of the series, and they allowed 112 points or more in their previous game, resulted in those Game 3 home favorites going 10-0 SU and 8-1-1 ATS since 2003. Give me Indiana minus points.

Mavericks @ Clippers 9:30 PM ET

Game# 565-566

Play On: Under 218.5

Oklahoma City is a very underrated defensive team that’s allowed 95 points or fewer in each of their previous 6 games and held opponents to less than 40% shooting during 5 of those contests. The Thunder have gone 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 while allowing a mere 93.3 points per game and holding opponents to just 38.4 shooting which includes 28.5% from 3-point territory. The current total in this contest is 218.5. OKC has played 3 home games this season when there’s been a total of between 211.0 and 219.5 with all those staying under. The average total in those 3 contests was 218.2 and there was a combined 195.0 points scored per game. Dallas played 5 games this season when there’s been a total parameter of 210.0 to 219.5 and all went under the number with a combined average of just 198.2 points scored per game. Give me this game under the total.

Pacers @ Knicks 8:00 PM ET

Game# 561-562

Play On: Knicks -4.5

The Knicks are coming off a 121-117 home win in Game 1. New York is 4-0 SU&ATS as a home favorite this season following a win in which they scored 120 or more and their average victory margin came by 18.2 points per game.

Since 2021, any NBA Playoffs Game 2 home favorite of between 3.5 to 9.5and scored 115 points or more in Game 1, resulted in those Game 2 home favorites going 15-0 SU and 13-2 ATS. The home favorites outscored their opponents by an average of 16.1 points per game. Give me the Knicks minus points.

Mavericks @ Thunder 9:30 PM ET

Game# 557-558

Play On: Thunder -3.5

Oklahoma City has been great at home all season. Specifically speaking, OKC has gone 34-5 SU and 26-13 ATS in their last 39 at home. That includes 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 at home. The Thunder won both regular season home games versus Dallas this season by scores of 126-119 and 135-86. The Thunder have been terric defensively of late while allowing 92 points or fewer in their last 5 and 6 of their previous 7 games.

Any NBA Favorite of 6.0 or less that’s coming off an away win and they allowed 99 points or fewer in each of their previous 2 contests, versus an opponent who won by 10 or more in their previous outing, resulted in those home favorites going 16-3 ATS since the 2015-2016 season began. That also includes 8-0 ATS since the 2018-2019 season with an average victory margin coming by 13.2 points per game. Give me the Thunder minus points.

Cavaliers @ Celtics 7:00 PM ET

Game# 559-560

Play On: Celtics -11.5

Cleveland is coming off a opening series 7-game win over Orlando. However, they went 0-3 SU&ATS on the road in that series and was outscored by an alarmingly high 26.0 points per game. Furthermore, the Cavaliers have now gone 0-9 SU and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 as an away underdog and were outscored by an average of 21.0 points per game. Additionally, Cleveland is 0-5 SU&ATS in their last 5 as an away underdog of 4.5 or greater and lost by an average of 17.8 points per game. The Cavaliers struggled offensively in the Orlando series while scoring 97 points or fewer in 6 of the 7 games, and that includes 96 or less in all 3 played on the road. That’s not good news for Cleveland backers when considering Boston allowed 94 points or fewer in 4 of their 5 games during their series win over Miami.

Any NBA Playoffs home favorite of -7.5 or more that’s playing in the opening game of round 2, and they’re facing an opponent off a Game 7 home win, resulted in those home favorites going 5-0 ATS. Those 5 home favorites outscored their opponents by an enormous average of 27.0 points per game. Give me the Celtics minus points.

Timberwolves @ Nuggets 10:00 PM ET

Game# 553-554

Play On: Nuggets -5.5

Denver is coming off a 106-99 home favorite loss in Game 1. The Nuggets are 7-1 SU&ATS this season following a home loss and outscored their opponents by an average of 13.8 points per game. Furthermore, the Nuggets are 3-0 SU&ATS this season as a home favorite of 4.0 or greater following a game in which they scored 99 or fewer and won by an enormous average of 22.4 points per game.

Since the 2019 NBA Playoffs, any Game 2 home favorite of between 3.0 to 9.5 that’s coming off a Game 1 home favorite SU loss by 9 points or fewer has gone 9-0 SU&ATS. The average line in those 9 contests was 7.2 and the home favorites won by 21.8 points per game. Give me the Denver Nuggets minus points.

Hurricanes @ Rangers 4:05 PM ET

Game# 23-24

Play On: Hurricanes -110

The Rangers are the higher seed in this matchup and one of the favorites to win the Stanley Cup. Yet, here they are as a game 1 money line home underdog in a Conference Semifinal series. Think like an oddsmaker. Give me the Hurricanes.

Magic @ Cavaliers 1:00 PM ET

Game# 545-546

Play On: Magic +3.5

The home teams are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in this series. So, Cleveland must be a lock on Sunday as a home favorite, right? Hold your horses, the data shows otherwise albeit being a very small sample size.

Cleveland is coming off Friday’s 103-96 loss at Orlando that forced a Game 7. Since the 2007 NBA Playoffs, Game 7 home favorites of 4.0 or less that are coming off a Game 6 loss in which they scored less than 100 points have gone 0-5 SU&ATS and were outscored by an average of 5.2 points per game. Additionally, since the 2003 NBA Playoffs, Game 7 conference of 4.5 or less in a series that saw the home teams win each of the first 6 in the series, resulted in those Game 7 home favorites going 0-3 SU&ATS and they were outscored by 7.0 points per game. Give me Orlando plus points.

Braves (Elder) @ Dodgers (Glasnow) 9:10 PM ET

Game# 959-960

Play On: Under 8.5

Atlanta has played 10-0 to the under in their last 10 and there was a combined average of just 5.8 runs scored per game. Bryce Elder has pitched 2-0 to the under in his 2 starts this season with a stellar 1.50 ERA and went 6.0 innings on both occasions. Elder made 2 career starts versus the Dodgers while recording a 1.50 ERA and both occurred last season. He also went 6.0 innings on both those occasions as well. The Braves bullpen has a sparkling 2.42 ERA/1.15 WHIP on the road in 2024.

The Dodgers have played 5-0 to the under in their last 5 when the total was 9.5 or less. Tyler Glasnow has been very good in 7 starts this season with a 2.72 ERA/0.93 WHIP. The Dodgers bullpen has been excellent throughout their previous 7 games with a staff 1.33 ERA/0.96 WHIP. Give me this game to go under the total.

Giants (Winn) @ Phillies (Suarez) 6:05 PM ET

Game# 955-956

Play On: Under 7.0

The Giants have scored 3 runs or fewer in each of their last 8 and played 6-0-1 to the under in the previous 7 games. The Giants Keaton Winn has been terrific over his last 3 starts while posting a 1.50 ERAS/0.78 WHIP while averaging 6.0 innings pitched per start and all 3 of those games went under the total. The Giants bullpen has overall terrible numbers this season. But. throughout their previous 7 games they’ve really turned things around with a staff 2.76 ERA while recording 34 strikeouts in 29 1/3 innings pitched.

Ranger Suarez has been superb during his first 6 starts of the season with a brilliant 1.32 ERA/0.63 WHIP while averaging 6.8 innings pitched per outing. Believe it or not, he’s been even better than that throughout his last 4 starts with a 0.30 ERA and better than 7:1 strikeout to walk ration while averaging 7.5 innings pitched per start. Since the start of last season, Suarez has pitched 11-0 to the under after allowing 2 earned runs or less during each of his previous 2 starts. Give me this game to go under the total.

Rangers (Dunning) @ Royals (Wacha) 7:10 PM ET

Game# 967-968

Play On: Royals -102

Kansas City enters today on a 3-game win streak in which they allowed 1 run on each of those occasions. The Royals are 20-13 this season have an impressive +1.7 run per game differential. This sets up a terrific MLB money line betting angle supporting the Royals which is displayed below.

Any MLB team that’s outscoring their opponents by an average of 1.0 or more runs per game and they’ve allowed 1 run or fewer in each of their previous 3 games, resulted in those teams going 30-4 (88.2%) since 2020. Those 34 teams had an average money line of -112 and outscored the opposition by a sizable 2.9 runs per game. Give me the Royals on the money line.

Timberwolves @ Nuggets 7:00 PM ET

Game# 529-530

Play On: Under 208.5

Denver played 3-0 to the under at home in the 1st round versus the Lakers. Granted those totals were higher than the current number today. However, the Timberwolves are a much better defensive team than the Lakers. Minnesota is coming off a 1st round sweep of Phoenix. The Timberwolves have played 12-4 to the under in their last 16 on the road.

Any NBA Playoffs Game 1 away underdog of 9.0 or less that’s playing in Round 2 or beyond, and their coming off a series sweep in the previous round, resulted in those games playing 8-2 to the under since the 2003 postseason. The average total during those 10 contests was 204.4 and there was just 193.4 combined points scored per game.

Clippers @ Mavericks 9:30 PM ET

Game# 527-528

Play On: Clippers +8.0

The Clippers roster has the most playoff experience of any team that was part of the 16-team postseason field. They’re coming off an embarrassing 30-point home loss and are now facing elimination on the road versus a Dallas team which has played extremely well over the past 2 months. However. the Clippers have gone 27-10 SU in their last 37 on the road which includes a Game 4 win at Dallas. Loss Angeles has also gone 9-1 SU in their last 10 away following a loss. The great equalizer for an NBA underdog is their ability to make 3-point shots at a high percentage. Throughout the first 5 games of this series the Clippers have made an impressive 39.6% of their 3-point shot attempts. Los Angeles has eld Dallas to just 105.6 points scored per game during this series which is 11.5 points below their season average.

The last 2 games of this series have gone over the total. Dallas is 1-8-1 ATS as a home favorite of 4.0 or great since the start of last season following back-to-back overs. That includes 0-5 ATS is they were favorite between 4.0 to 8.5-points and they lost 2 of those contests straight up.

Any NBA Playoffs Game 6 away underdog of between 5.5 to 9.5 that’s down 3-2 in the series and they’re coming off a home loss, resulted in those away underdogs going 4-0 SU&ATS since the 2016 postseason. The away underdogs not only covered those 4 contests but also won all 4 SU and by 9.4 points per game. Give me the Clippers plus points.

Cavaliers @ Magic 7:00 PM ET

Game# 523-524

Play On: Magic -3.5

Cleveland narrowly escaped with a 1-point home win in Game 5 to take a 3-2 series lead. However, they’re headed back to Orlando and the Cavaliers are 0-6 SU&ATS this season as a conference away underdog of 4.0 or less while being outscored by a substantial 20.4 points per game. They’re also 0-8 SU and 1-7 in their last 8 as an away underdog against all NBA teams with a terrible -22.7 point per game differential. During their 4 games at Orlando this season, Cleveland scored 94 points or fewer on 3 occasions.

Orlando has gone an incredible 18-2 SU and 17-3 ATS as a conference home favorite this season. That includes a perfect 12-0 SU&ATS during their last 12 in that specific role while outscoring opponents by 21.6 points per game. Throughout the last 3 games in this series the Magic have dominated the glass with a +12.3 rebound per game advantage. Give me the Magic minus points.

Bucks @ Pacers 6:30 PM ET

Game# 513-514

Play On: Indiana -7.5

There will be a definite overreaction by public bettors to side with Milwaukee as a sizable underdog after witnessing the Bucks 113-92 home win on Tuesday which kept their season alive. However, the series shifts back to Indiana for Game 6 where the Bucks are 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS this season.

Indiana was held to less than 100 points scored for only a 3rd time this season on Tuesday. Indiana is 2-0 SU&ATS this season following a game in which they were held to 99 points or fewer and won by an average of 18.0 points per contest. The Pacers have been extremely resilient over the last 8 weeks. That’s proven by them going 9-0 SU&ATS in their last 9 following a loss in their previous contest. They won those 9 contests by a decisive average of 20.0 points per game. Indiana has also gone a perfect 8-0 SU&ATS this season as a home favorite of 3.0 or greater after losing their previous contest and with an average victory margin of 25.0 points per contest.

Since the 2003 NBA Playoffs, Game 6 NBA home favorites of 4.5 or more that are coming off an away loss by 10.0 or more in which they scored 99 points or fewer, resulted in those home favorites going 11-1 SU&ATS. Additionally, if they were a favorite of 6.0 or greater they improved to 5-0 SU&ATS with an average line of -7.2 and victory margin of 18.0 points per game. Give me the Indiana Pacers minus points.

Mavericks @ Clippers 10:00 PM ET

Game# 505-506

Play On: Mavericks -2.5

The Mavericks are coming off a 116-11 Game 4 home favorite upset loss to the Clippers. The Clippers are 0-5 SU&ATS this season as an underdog of 6.5 or less following an away win and lost by an average of 13.0 points per game. They've also gone a dismal 1-5 SU&ATS this season following a SU underdog win in their previous game.

 Dallas has gone an extremely profitable 20-6 ATS this season as a road favorite, and it improves to 3-0 SU&ATS following a home loss with an average victory margin of 10.0 points per game. The Mavericks are 4-0 SU&ATS this season as a favorite following a SU favorite loss in their previous game.

This is a very rare NBA postseason betting situation that favors the road favorite in a very small sample size. Nonetheless, any NBA Playoffs away favorite in a Game 5 with the series tied 2-2 that's coming off a home loss has gone 3-0 SU&ATS since 2004. Those 3 road favorites won by an average of 11.4 points per game. Give me the Mavericks minus points.

Pacers @ Bucks 9:30 PM ET

Game# 567-568

Play On: Bucks +4.5

I may be in the minority, but I don’t see Milwaukee being eliminated at home tonight without the very least making it a competitive game that goes down to the wire. After the Bucks won the opening game of this series they lost 3 straight and find themselves on the brink of elimination. Even with their 2 stars not in the lineup tonight I look for this proud roster to play with a ton of urgency and desperation while also drawing from the energy of their loyal fans at home. Since the 2004 NBA Playoffs, Game 5 home teams down 3-1 in a series after losing each of the previous 3, resulted in those Game 5 home teams going 11-2 SU (84.6%). If those home teams were an underdog, then they went 2-0 SU&ATS with an average victory margin of 6.5 points per contest. Give me the Bucks plus points.

Magic @ Cavaliers 8:00 PM ET

Game# 569-570

Play On: Magic +5.0

Yes, I realize the home teams in this series are 4-0 SU&ATS with an average victory margin of 21.7 points per game. But what I’ve seen from Cleveland thus far is extremely concerning. The Cavaliers have been held to 97 points or fewer in all 4 games. They lost the last 2 in this series by 38 and 23 points while scoring just 86.0 per contest. On the other hand, the younf Orlando Magic team gained a ton of confidence offensively in their Games 3 and 4 home wins by averaging 116.5 points scored per game and shooting a combined 53.3% from the field. Orlando is 11-4 SU this season immediately following 2 consecutive games in which they shot 50% or better and outscored those 15 opponents by an average of 5.2 points per contest. The teams will be playing on 2 days rest tonight. Orlando is 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 when playing on 2 days rest and with an average victory margin of 22.7 points per game. Conversely, Cleveland is 0-3 ATS and just 1-2 SU this season as a favorite of 3.0 or greater when playing with 2 days rest and they were outscored by 2.7 points per contest.

Knicks @ 76ers 7:00 PM ET

Game# 567-568

Play On: Under 204.0

The 76ers have struggled offensively at time over the last few weeks. Specifically speaking, they’ve scored 96 points or fewer in 5 of their previous 8 games and that includes 104 or less on 7 of those occasions. The Knicks are coming a 97-92 win over Philadelphia in Game 4. Since the start of last season, New York has played 7-1 to the under following a game in which they scored 99 or less and allowed 99 points or fewer, and there was a combined average of 197.8 points scored per contest. The 76ers have been held to 96 points or fewer in 5 of 8 games versus New York this season. Give me this game to go under the total.

Lakers @ Nuggets 10:00 PM ET

Game# 561-562

Play On: Under 216.5

Denver has played 9-0 to the under this season when facing Pacific Division teams. Denver has also played 13-0 to the under in their last 13 immediately following 2 consecutive road games. Since Game #42 the Lakers have played 10-2 to the under when facing teams with a winning record. These teams have played 6-1 to the under when playing in Denver since the start of last season.

Any NBA Playoffs home team in Game 5 of 1st round series with a total of 210.0 to 219.5 has played 14-1 to the under since 2013. If that home team is coming off a Game 4 loss they played 8-0 to the under with an average total of 213.3 and there was a combined 199.1 points scored per game. Give me this game to go under the total.

Timberwolves @ Suns 9:30 PM ET

Game# 555-556

Play On: Timberwolves -113 (ML)

The Phoenix Suns have been overmatched in this series which is a shocker considering their star power of Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal. Minnesota has won the first 3 games of this series and all by double-digit margins while losing by 17.3 points per contest. The last of which was a 126-109 blowout at Phoenix. The Suns have shown very little in terms of heart and fight throughout this series.

Any NBA away team that’s up 3-0 in a playoff series and their previous win came by 10 or more while scoring 91 points or more, resulted in those road teams have gone 26-5 SU (83.9%) since the 2004 playoffs. Considering Minnesota is currently a pick or 1.0-points underdog in this contest, the SU betting angle takes on added significance. Give me the Timberwolves for a money line wager.

Twins (Paddack) @ Angels (Soriano) 9:38 PM ET

Game# 915-916

Play On: Twins +103

Twins have won 5 in a row and outscored the opposition by a cumulative 30-14. The Angels have gone 1-7 in their last 8 and averaged a tad over 3 runs per game during that stretch. The Twins bullpen has been solid over their previous 7 games with a solid staff 2.52 ERA/1.16 WHIP. The Angles bullpen has a terrible staff 5.55 ERA at home this season. Give me the Twins as a money line bet.

Boston @ Miami 6:00 PM ET

Game# 545-546

Play On: Under 204.5

Since last year, Miami home playoffs games with a total of 200.0 to 209.0 have played 4-0 to the under with the average number being 206.0. The Heat have allowed 105 points or fewer in 5 of their last 6 games. Miami is averaging a respectable 13 three-point makes per game this season. However, in Game 2 they made a season high 23 three-point shots and that also set a franchise record in postseason play. I will go out on a limb and say they will regress substantially in the area today with Boston putting a major emphasis on correcting themselves defensively in that area.

The first 2-games of this series were played at an extremely slow pace by NBA standards. Thos contests average just a combined 159.0 field goal attempts per game. We saw only a combined 61 free throw attempts in Games 1 and 2 which is also an abnormally low number. That indicates to me that both teams have been disciplined defensively. Give me this game to go under the total.

Clippers @ Mavericks 8:00 PM ET

Game# 535-536

Play On: Mavericks -4.0

My professional opinion, Dallas has been the most improved defensive team in the NBA over the last quarter of the season. Specifically speaking, the Mavericks have allowed 107 points or fewer in 14 of their last 17 games. Dallas is coming off a 96-93 road win over the Clippers in Game 2 to even the series at 1-1. The Mavericks are a perfect 6-0 SU&ATS this season as a favorite of -10.0 or less and immediately following a game in which they allowed 100 points or less. They won those 6 contests by an average of 11.9 points per game. The Mavericks are also 3-0 SU&ATS this season as a home favorite after scoring 99 or less in their previous contest and won by an average of 20.0 points per game. The Clippers have been a very good road team this season but not as an underdog where they’re 4-10 SU and 5-9 ATS. Give me the Mavericks minus points.

Cavaliers @ Magic 7:00 PM ET

Game# 525-526

Play On: Magic -125 (ML)

The Cleveland Cavaliers force 13 turnovers per game this season and that’s significant. Orland is 17-2 SU at home this season when facing an opponent who forces 13 turnovers or fewer per contest and with a sizable point per game differential of +14.3. Orlando has also gone a perfect 9-0 SU&ATS in their last 9 conference home games and with an enormous average victory margin 17.7 points per contest. Conversely, Cleveland is an abysmal 0-5 SU&ATS this season as an away underdog of 3.5 or less and lost by an average of 14.6 points per contest.

Since the 2003 NBA Playoffs, any Game 3 home favorite of 1.5 or greater that’s coming off SU&ATS losses in the first 2 games of the series have gone 33-8 SU (80.5%). Give me the Magic as a money line favorite.

Pelicans @ Thunder 9:30 PM ET

Game# 519-520

Play On: Thunder -7.5

I know how good New Orleans has been on the road this season. However, this will be their second straight home game without star power forward Zion Williamson (hamstring) and I firmly believe his absence will be sorely misses tonight.

The Thunder won the opening game of this series and was held to less than 100 points scored for only a 4th time this season. OKC is 3-0 SU&ATS this season immediately following a game in which they scored less than 100 and there was an average victory margin of 11.7 points per contest. We must also keep in mind; this is still an extremely young OKC team despite them being the #1 seed in the Western Conference. Their nervousness in Game 1 was very apparent while they made uncharacteristic careless errors and also shot poorly. They’ll be significantly better in Game 2. Especially so on their home court where they’ve gone 34-8 SU and 27-15 ATS this season with a huge point per game differential of +12.7. Furthermore, OKC is 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS this season as a favorite of between 6.0 and 13.0 immediately following a contest in which they allowed less than 100 points, and they outscored their opponents by an average of 16.5 points per game. Give me the Thunder minus points.

Pacers @ Bucks 8:30 PM ET

Game# 511-512

Play On: Over 222.0

Since the start of last season, Indiana has played 8-0 to the over when there’s a total of 234.5 or less and they scored 105 points or fewer in their previous game. Those 8 contests averaged a combined 245.0 points scored per game. Despite Game 1 having just a combined 203 points scored, the 6 meetings between these division rivals this season has produced an average of 245.5 points scored per game. Milwaukee has seen their last 4 go over the total after allowing 105 points or fewer in their previous contest and there was a combined average of 242.2 points scored per game.

Pacers @ Bucks 8:30 PM ET

Game# 511-512

Play On: Indiana +1.5

The Pacers are coming off a 109-94 loss at Milwaukee in Game 1. However, Indiana is 8-0 SU&ATS in their last 8 following a loss with a substantial average victory margin of 20.4 points per game. Indiana is also 7-0 SU&ATS in their last 7 after scoring 112 or less in their previous contest and won by 16.4 points per game. The Pacers are 4-0 SU&ATS this season on the road when the line is between +6.0 to -6.0 and after a loss by 10 points or more with an average winning margin of 12.8 points per game. Give me the Pacers.

Lakers @ Nuggets 10:00 PM ET

Game# 505-506

Play On: Nuggets -7.0

The Denver Nuggets unequivocally have the Lakers number in recent meetings. Denver is 6-0 SU&ATS in their last 6 versus Los Angeles. As a matter of fact, dating back to last season, Denver is 9-0 SU in their last 9 overall versus the Lakers. Additionally, Denver is 78-16 SU at home since the start of last season. It’s also worth noting, the Nuggets are 11-1 SU and 7-4 ATS in their last 11 home playoff games.

Denver won Game 1 on Saturday 114-103 and covered as a 7.0-point home favorite. Since the 2021 NBA Playoffs, Game 2 home favorites of between 5.0 or greater that are coming off a home favorite of 5.0 or greater ATS cover have gone a perfect 8-0 SU&ATS with an average victory margin of 14.0 points per game. Give me Denver minus points.

Mets (Quintana) @ Giants (Winn) 9:45 PM ET

Game# 961-962

Play On: Mets +102

Since starting the season 0-5, the Mets have gone a terrific 12-4. The Mets Jose Quintana is 3-0 in his last 3 team starts with a stellar 2.81 ERA. The Mets bullpen has been lights out over their previous 7 games with a staff 2.05 ERA/0.87 WHIP and they recorded an impressive 38 strikeouts in 26 1/3 innings pitched. Conversely, the Giants bullpen has a lousy 6.29 ERA/1.148 WHIP throughout their previous 7 games. The Mets are 6-2 in night games this season while San Francisco is a dismal 3-9 in that identical role. Give me the Mets on the money line.

76ers @ Knicks 7:30 PM ET

Game# 503-504

Play On: Knicks -5.0

The Knicks took Game 1 of this series 111-104 on Saturday and covered as a 3.0-point home favorite. They won despite only shooting 39.6% and that included a poor 8-26 (30.8%) shooting performance from their star point guard Jalen Brunson. The Knicks have now gone 4-1 SU&ATS versus Philadelphia this season and held them to a mere 90.0 points per game and outrebounded them by 12.6 per contest. Another reason for their win and cover in Game 1 was 23 offensive rebounds and being +22 on the glass. The Knicks are riding a current 6-game win streak in which they averaged 118.3 points scored per game. New York has also gone 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 as a home favorite of 7.5 or less and won by an average of 14.3 points per game.

Since the 2021 NBA Playoffs, Game 2 home favorites of between 3.5 to 9.5 have gone 24-5 ATS (82.8%). The average line in those 29 contests was 6.3 and the home favorites outscored their opponents by an average of 15.4 points per game. So much for the NBA Playoffs zig-zag theory. Give me the Knicks minus points.

Pelicans @ Thunder 9:30 PM ET

Game# 586-586

Play On: Pelicans +8.5

New Orleans star Zion Williamson will be out for 3 weeks after sustaining a hamstring injury in a Play-In Tournament home loss to the Lakers this past Tuesday. However, the Pelicans are 8-5 in their 13 games this season that Williamson was out and that includes 6-2 on the road. It’s worth noting that the Pelicans are an outstanding 28-14 on the road this season. Better yet, New Orleans has won their last 6, 10 of their previous 11, and 16 of the past 19 on the road. Oklahoma City has a terrific 33-8 home record. Nevertheless, they sustained 1 of those 8 losses to New Orleans and that was the Pelicans only game at OKC this season. 

Heat @ Celtics 1:00 PM ET

Game# 581-582

Play On: Under 210.0

Miami has allowed 105 points or fewer in each of their previous 4 games. Boston has scored 130 points or more in each of their last 2 contests. Any NBA road team like Miami is that allowed 105 points or fewer in each of their previous 4 contest, and they’re facing an opponent like Boston who scored 130 points or more in their previous game, and there’s a total of 200.0 or greater has seen those contest play 27-4 to the under since the 1996-1997 season. The average total in those 31 contests was 210.9 and there were just 201.5 points scored per game. Give me this game to go under the total.

Lakers @ Nuggets 8:30 PM ET

Game# 575-576

Play On: Nuggets -7.0

Denver is 3-0 SU&ATS versus the Lakers this season and won by 10.0 points per game. The Nuggets have gone an outstanding 33-8 at home this season and with a sizable +9.8 points per game differential. The Nuggets have average 123.8 points scored per game, shot 53.2% from the field, and made an excellent 41.7% of their 3-point shot attempts over the previous 5 contests. On the other hand, the Lakers have allowed 119.0 points per game while letting opponents shoot 48.1% from the field and an alarmingly high44.1% from 3-point range throughout their previous 5 contests.

Since the 2013 NBA Playoffs, Western Conference #2 seeds that are favorite by 7.0 or more and it the opening game of Round 1 have gone 5-0 SU&ATS with an average victory margin of 21.6 points per game. Give me the Nuggets minue points.

76ers @ Knicks 6:00 PM ET

Game#571-572

Play On: Knicks -3.0

The Knicks were 3-1 SU&ATS versus Philadelphia this season and held them to 96 points or fewer on each occasion. The 76ers scored a mere 86.5 points per game and shot a miserable 40.3% during those 4 meetings. Philadelphia narrowly escaped with a 105-104 home win over Miami in the Play-In Tournament to capture the #7 seed. New York finished the regular season on a 5-game win streak in which they scored 119.8 points per contest, shot 50.0% from the field, and a terrific 43.6% from 3-point territory. The 76ers are on an 8-game win streak but 5 of those win came versus teams with a losing record. The 76ers have shot the ball poorly in each of their previous 2 contest going 77-182 (42.3%) from the field. Philadelphia is a dismal 1-5 SU&ATS as an away underdog this season and on a 2-game win streak. Conversely, the Knicks are 6-0 SU&ATS this season as a favorite of between 2.5 to 4.5-points with an average margin of victory coming by 12.8 points per game. Give me the Knicks minus points.

Suns @ Timberwolves 3:30 PM ET

Game# 577-578

Play On: Suns +1.5

The Suns finished 7.0 games behind Minnesota in the regular season standings and are the lower seeded team. Yet, they’re the favorite in this series and only a short underdog in Game 1 versus a Timberwolves that went 30-11 at home during regular season action. If it looks to good to be true when it comes to sports betting, more times than not it is.

Phoenix enters the playoffs having won 7 of their last 9 which includes going 4-0 SU&ATS on the road with an average margin of victory coming by 12.3 points per game. The Suns are 3-0 SU&ATS versus Minnesota this season while winning by 15.7 points per game. Give me the Suns plus points.

Bulls @ Heat 7:00 PM ET

Game# 559-560

Play On: Heat -128 (ML)

There will be much ado about Miami star Jimmy Butler being out of the lineup tonight and rightfully so. However, the Heat are a respectable 13-9 SU this season when playing without Butler and that includes 12-6 during their previous 18 games in that role. Miami is coming off a 105-104 loss at Philadelphia in Tuesday’s Play-In Tournament Game. Nevertheless, Miami is 7-0 SU&ATS in their last 7 following a loss in their previous contest with a substantial average victory margin of 22.3 points per game.

Chicago is coming off a home blowout win on Tuesday over a hapless Atlanta team which finished their season with 7 consecutive losses. Chicago is a dismal 13-26 SU this season immediately following a win in their previous game. Additionally, the Bulls are 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 on the road following a home win and lost by an average of 14.0 points per game. Give me the Heat on the money line.

Hawks @ Bulls 9:30 PM ET

Game# 549-550

Play On: Bulls -3.0

The Atlanta Hawks are a textbook example of why some question the validity of the Play-In Tournament. The Hawks enter this contest on a 6-game losing streak, failed to cover on 5 of those occasions, and finished with a 36-46 regular season record. The Hawks are coming off Sunday’s regular season finale in which they were embarrassed in 157-115 loss at Indiana. Atlanta is 0-7 SU&ATS their last 7 this season after a loss by 15 points or more and were outscored by an average of 10.7 points per game. During their previous 5 games Atlanta has allowed their opponents to shoot an alarmingly high 54.8% from the field.

Chicago finished the regular season by winning 2 of their last 3 games. However, I was more impressed in their loss at Madison Square Garden in their regular season finale than the 2 wins over Lowly Washington and Detroit. During that contest, the Bulls lost to the Knicks 120-119 in overtime as a 13.0-points dog. Furthermore, the Bulls were already locked into the #9 seed and really had nothing to play for. Conversely, the Knicks needed to win to attain the Eastern Conference #2 seed. Chicago played with playoff intensity and now being at home against a more inferior opponent than New York it will serve them well. Give me the Bulls minus the points.

Heat @ 76ers 7:00 PM ET

Game# 551-552

Play On: Over 207.5

Miami has played 9-1 to the over in their last 10 and there was a combined average of 220.7 points per game. The Heat have averaged 113.4 points scored per game and shot 48.1% from the floor during their last 5 contests. Miami has played 17-4 to the over in April since last season with a combined 226.3 points scored per game.

Philadelphia has played 7-3 to the over in their last 10 and there was a combined 225.3 points scored per game. The 76ers are averaging 120.2 points scored per game and shot 37.2% from beyond the 3-point line over their previous 5 contests. Give me this game to go over the total.

Warriors @ Kings 10:00 PM ET

Game# 543-544

Play On: Warriors -135

I don’t like what I saw from Sacramento during the final stretch of regular season action. The Kings last 5 of their last 7 games and were just 3-4 in their last 7 at home. Sacramento has also gone 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 at home when the poinmt-spread was between +2.5 to -2.5 and were outscored by an alarming 17.3 points per game.

This is one of the rare occasions where I’m going to agree with public betting trends that overwhelming back Golden State in the spot. The Warriors have gone 7-1 in their last 8 and 17-4 during their previous 21 road games. They’re also a perfect 15-0 in their last 15 road games as a money line favorite. Additionally, Golden State is 11-0 SU&ATS in their last 11 this season as an away favorite of 9.5 or less and with a sizable average victory margin of 15.7 points per game. Give me the Warriors on the money line.

Pistons @ Spurs 3:40 PM ET

Game# 525-526

Play On: Over 214.5

If you are ever going to catch me playing on an NBA game over the last 2 weeks of regular season action involving teams eliminated from the playoffs, this is the type of situation it would be. We have the Spurs who are tied for the worst record in the Western Conference and the team with the worst record in the NBA being the Detroit Pistons squaring off.these teams have a combined record of 35-127 (.216) heading into the final day of regular season play. It’s games such as these where defensive intensity goes out the window and just short of playground type up and down playground style basketball is played. San Antonio has played 4-0 to the over in their last 4 at home with a combined 246.5 points scored per game. Detroit has played 4-1 to the over in their last 5 versus teams with a losing record and there was a combined 219.6 points scored per game. San Antonio contests at home have seen an average of 233.1 points scored per game. Conversely, Detroit has seen their road tilts average a combined 221.2 points scored per game. Give me this game to go over the total.

Hawks @ Pacers 1:10 PM ET

Game# 513-514

Play On: Pacers -13.0

The Hawks really have nothing to play for. They’re locked into the Eastern Conference #10 seed and will face Chicago on the road in a Play-In Tournament win or go home game. Indiana has plenty to play for. They need a win or a loss by Philadelphia or Orlando to avoid the Play-In Tournament. Furthermore, Indiana is coming off Friday night’s loss at Cleveland. The Pacers have gone a perfect 7-0 SU&ATS in their last 7 following a loss and with an average victory margin of 17.2 points per game. During those 7 games, they held their opponents to 105.4 points per game, 44.8% shooting, and a paltry 27.6% from 3-point territory. Conversely, Atlanta is 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in their last 5. Indiana has gone 3-0 SU&ATS versus Atlanta this season, shot 60.6% or better in all those contests, and that includes 48.4% or better on their 3 point shot attempts on each occasion. Give me the Pacers minus points.

Hawks @ Pacers 1:10 PM ET

Game# 513-514

Play On: Over 236.5

Atlanta is coming off a 109-106 loss at Minnesota on Friday. That game easily stayed under the total of 227.0. However, they’ve gone over in their last 4 immediately following a game that went under and there was a combined average of 243.3 points scored per game. Indiana has gone over the total in 4 consecutive contests while shooting 51.2% or better on each occasion and there was a combined average of 245.5 points scored per game. During the previous 3 times these teams faced each other this eason, there was an average total of 253.5 and a combined 269.7 points scored per game. Give me this game to go over the total.

Cardinals (Gibson) @ Diamondbacks (Nelson) 8:10 ET

Game# 905-906

Play On: Cardinals -104

Ryne Nelson has made 2 starts for Arizona so far and had a horrible 8.21 ERA/1.83 WHIP while lasting only a combined 7 2/3 innings. That’s even more alarming when you consider the Arizona bullpen has a shaky staff 5.64 ERA/1.79 WHIP over their previous 7 games. Nelson has 1 career start versus St. Louis and that took place last season. It was certainly an uninspiring performance as he allowed 5 earned runs, 8 hits, and walked 3 in 6.0 innings. Despite having a subpar 6-8 record. Arizona is a +1.0 run per game differential. However, that’s a bit deceiving when considering they’re 5-2 versus Colorado (4-10) with a +2.0 run per game differential and 1-6 against everyone else.

Kyle Gibson has gone 6-0 in his teams starts on the road since last season when facing teams like Arizona who have a +0.5 or greater run per game differential. Gibson has made 4 starts versus the Diamondbacks since 2020 and posted a stellar 2.35 ERA/1.17 WHIP during those outings. The St. Louis bullpen has been solid over their last 7 games with a staff 3.33 ERA/1.26 WHIP. Give me the Cardinals on the money line.

Bruins @ Penguins 8:07 PM ET

Game# 17-18

Play On: Under 6.0

The Bruins have played 6-0 to the under in their last 6 with a combined 4.5 goals scored per outing. The Bruins are expected to start red-hot Linus Ullmark in goal tonight and he has a brilliant .942 save percentage in his last 4 starts. The Bruins power play has gone an anemic 1-16 (6.2%) throughout their previous 5 games. Pittsburgh has been almost as anemic on the power play over the previous 5 games while going 1-14 (7.1%). Pittsburgh has allowed 3 goals or more in each of their previous 3 games. Nevertheless, the Penguins have played 9-2 to the under this season immediately after allowing 3 goals or more in each of their last 3 games. The Penguins are clinging to the Eastern Conference wildcard spot with a narrow 1-point lead over Washington, Philadelphia, and Detroit I fully expect them to be very attentive to their defensive responsibilities this evening. Give me this game to go under the total.

Red Wings @ Maple Leafs 7:07 PM ET

Game# 15-16

Play On: Red Wings +156

The Detroit Red Wings are playing for the playoff lives right now. They trail Pittsburgh by 1 point for the final Eastern Conference wild card spot and are tied with Washington with each team having 3 games left to play. Toronto can’t finish no higher or lower than 3rd place in the Atlantic Division in addition to the 5th seed in the Eastern Conference Playoffs. Desperation and urgency clearly favor Detroit and makes them an extremely live money line underdog betting value.

Devils @ Flyers 5:07 PM ET

Game# 7-8

Play On: Over 6.5

New Jersey has played 7-1 to the over in their last 8 and that includes 5-0 on the road with an average of 8.2 goals scored per game. The Devils have been eliminated from the playoff race so playing a tight-checking game is highly unlikely. The Flyers return home after a 4-game road trip which saw them allow 5.0 goals per contest. Philadelphia has allowed 4 goals or more in 8 of their last 9 games. New Jersey has scored 3 goals or more in 8 of their last 12. These teams met 3 times this season and there was a combined average of 7.0 goals scored and 74.0 shots on goal per game. Give me this game to go over the total.

Rangers (Dunning) @ Astros (France) 8:10 PM ET

Game# 965-966

Play On: Astros -121

The oddsmakers are begging you to take the defending world champion Texas Rangers as an underdog versus a Houston team that’s started the season 4-10. Additionally, Houston is coming off being swept in a 3-game series at Kansas City  with the last 2 losses coming by embarrassing score of 13-3 and 11-2. Yet here they are as the favorite in this matchup. When it looks to good in sports betting more times than not it is.

Since 2022, Dan Dunning has gone a miserable 8-22 during his road teams starts and an even worse 3-12 if facing a club with a losing record. Sice last season, Dunning is an atrocious 3-18 during his team starts throughout the first 81 games of the season. Texas enters this series having lost 4 of their last 5. Give me the Astros as a money line favorite.

Royals (Wacha) @ Mets (Severino) 7:10 PM ET

Game# 973-974

Play On: Royals +123

The Mets return home after coming off a successful 5-2 road trip. However, they’re just 1-5 at Citi Field this season. Luis Severino has gone an abysmal 2-13 in his team starts since 2022 when the money line was +125 to -125.

Don’t look now but the Kansas City Royals have won 7 in a row and outscored their opponents by a cumulative score of 48-13 while doing so. Michael Wacha has made 3 starts this season and posted a stellar 2.25 ERA/0.58 WHIP. Wacha is 17-7 in his team starts since last season when the money line is +125 to -125. The Royals bullpen has a brilliant 0.77 ERA as a staff throughout their previous 7 games. Give me the Royals on the money line.

Pelicans @ Kings 10:00 PM ET

Game# 551-552

Play On: Pelicans +1.5

The New Orleans Pelicans have dominated Sacramento this season while going 4-0 SU&ATS in their head-to-head meeting and with an enormous average victory margin of 21.3 points per game. The Pelicans have been better on the road than at home this season. New Orleans is currently 26-14 (.650) on the road and 21-18 (.538) on their home floor. The Kings enter tonight’s game having lost 3 of their last 4 and 5 of the previous 8 contests. Although Sacramento is averaging 116.5 points scored per game this season, they’ve recently struggled in that category of late. The Kings have scored 109 points or fewer in 10 of their last 11 games. Sacramento has gone a mediocre 7-6 SU in their last 13 at home. Give me the Pelicans.

Orioles (Irvin) @ Red Sox (Crawford) 7:10 PM ET

Game# 969-970

Play On: Red Sox -110

Baltimore’s Cole Irvin was shaky in 4 spring starts while posting a 6.23 ERA/1.85 WHIP. He walked an alarmingly high 13 batters in 17.0 innings pitched during those appearances. Those struggles carried ove to his regular season debut and lone 2024 start when he allowed 4 earned runs on 7 hits while walking 2 versus Kansas City. Irvin has made 1 career start at Fenway Park and it came last year when he allowed 6 earned runs on 4 hits during just 4.0 innings pitched.

Kutter Crawford has been excellent in his first 2 starts of the season while posting a 0.84 ERA. The Red Sox bullpen is coming off a bad day in yesterday’s 7-1 loss to Baltimore. However, they still have a terrific staff 1.95 ERA over their previous 7 games.

The Red Sox finished last season with a disappointing 78-84 (.481) record. They finished last season by going a dismal 6-14 over their final 20 games. Any MLB money line favorite of -110 or greater that’s playing in their first 12 games of the season, and they finished the season before with a win percentage of .450 to .550 while losing 14 or more of their last 20 games, resulted in those money line favorites going 38-6 (96.4%) since the 2020 season began. Give me the Red Sox on the money line.

Magic @ Rockets 8:10 PM ET

Game# 517-518

Play On: Magic -2.5

After going on an 11-game win streak which catulpated them into playoff contention, Houston preceded to go 0-5 SU&ATS in their last 5 contests while being outscored by an average of 14.8 points per game. During this current 5-game losing streak they’ve allowed opponents to score 127.4 points per contest, shoot 53.3% from the field, and 43.7% of their 3-point shot attempts.

Orlando has gone an extremely profitable 26-9 ATS as a favorite this season. The Magic have won 4 of their last 5 overall and they allowed 106 points or fewer in 10 of their previous 13 games. Give me the Magic minus points. Give me the Magic minus points.

Wizards @ Timberwolves 8:10 PM ET

Game# 513-514

Play On: Over 222.5

Washington has played 7-0 to the over in their last 7 non-conference away games and with a combined average of 252.5 points scored per game. Minnesota has shot 48.4% from the field and 38.5% from 3-point territory over their previous 5 games. The Timberwolves will be facing a Washington team that’s allowing 122.8 points per game this season. Give me this game to go over the total.

Mavericks @ Hornets 7:10 PM ET

Game# 503-504

Play On: Over 222.5

Charlotte has played 4-1 to the over in their last 5 and 8-2 to the over during the previous 10 games. The Hornets have also played 7-1 to the over in their last 8 versus opponents that possessed a winning record. Both these teams have shot the ball extremely well over each of their previous 5 games. Give me this game to go over the total.

Purdue vs. Connecticut 9:20 PM ET

Game# 675-676

Play On: Under 145.5

UConn has seen all 5 of their NCAA Tournament games go under the total with a combined average of 139.4 points scored per game. They were terrific defensively during those contests allowing a mere 57.2 points per contests and holding their opponents to 34.7% shooting. The Huskies also allowed just 14 free throw attempts per game during those 5 wins.

Purdue has played 4-1 to the under in the NCAA Tournament and with a combined average of 140.0 points scored per game. The Boilermakers held those 5 opponents to just 60.2 points per game, 39.4% shooting, and permitted them to get to the free throw line an average of only 10 times per game.

Neither one of these teams prefers a fast tempo game. UConn ranks 328th out of 362 Division 1 teams with regards to offensive tempo while Purdue is 211th in that same category. This will be the 4th time since the 2015 NCAA Tournament when two #1 seeds will square off against one another in the championship game. The previous 3 all went under the total and with a combined average of 141.0 points scored per game. Give me this game to go under the total.

Diamondbacks (Gallen) @ Rockies (Freeland) 8:40 PM ET

Game# 957-958

Play On: Diamondbacks -1.5 (-115)

Since 7/9/2022, Kyle Freeland has made 5 starts versus Arizona and compiled a terrible 8.89 ERA during those outings. That includes a start at Arizona last week in which he allowed a whopping 10 earned runs on 10 hits over just 2 1/3 innings pitched.  The Rockes bullpen has been awful to start the season with a staff 7.28 ERA/1.93 WHIP.

Arizona began the season by taking 3 of 4 at home versus Colorado and outscored them 32-14. Since 2020, Zac Gallen has made 5 starts at Coors Field in Denver and posted a terrific 2.18 ERA/0.73 WHIP. The Arizona bullpen has been solid thus far with a staff 3.55 ERA/1.08 WHIP. Give me Arizona on the run line.

Mariners (Castillo) @ Blue Jays (Berrios) 7:07 PM ET

Game# 965-966

Play On: Blue Jays -112

Luis Castillo has been shaky in 2 starts this season with a 6.75 ERA/1.78 WHIP. The Mariners are coming off a 3-game series at Milwaukee in which their bullpen had a miserable 8.67 ERA/2.03 WHIP as a staff.

Toronto will be playing their home opener today after beginning the season on a 10-game road trip. Jose Berrios has been very good in 2 starts with a 2.25 ERA and averaged 6.0 innings pitched per outing. Give me the Blue jays on the money line.

Knicks @ Bucks 7:10 PM ET

Game# 579-580

Play On: Over 218.5

The Knicks have played 6-1 to the over in their last 7 and 8-2 during their previous 10. During their 3 meetings versus New York this season the Bucks have averaged 132.7 points scored per game, shot 53% from the field, and made an average of 17.3 of their shots from 3-point territory. The Knicks averaged 120.7 points scored per contest and shot 49.3% in those 3 contests versus Milwaukee. The usually stout defensive play has been anything but over their previous 5 contests when they allowed opponents to shoot 50.5% and make 40.1% of their 3-point shots. The Bucks are averaging 122.1 points scored per game at home this season. Give me this game to go over the total.

Pelicans @ Suns 6:10 ET

Game# 571-572

Play On: Suns -6.0

These are 2 playoff bound teams but are currently headed down opposite paths. New Orleans has gone 0-4 SU&ATS in their last 4 while losing by 9.0 points per game and all those occurred at home. The Suns are 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 at home with an average victory margin of 14.3 points per game. The Suns are 2-0 SU&ATS versus the Pelicans this season with both coming on the road by 13 and 14 points. Phoenix is coming off a 97-87 home win over Minnesota. The Suns are 3-0 SU&ATS this season immediately following a game in which they scored less than 100 points and won by an average of 17.7 points per contest. Give me the Suns minus points.

Alabama vs. Connecticut 8:49 PM ET

Game# 671-672

Play On: Connecticut -11.5

Analytically speaking, this is a horrible matchup for Alabama. The won’t be able to contend with UConn on the boards for one. Secondly, 46.9% of Alabama’s field goal attempts are 3-point shots, and over their previous 5 games UConn has held their opponents to a combined 24.5% shooting from 3-point territory. Additionally, Alabama loves to play at a frenetic offense pace while UConn doesn’t. However, the Huskies are flexible enough to play that style and be extremely effective while doing so. Keep in mind, Connecticut ranks #1 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency with 126.7 points scored per 100 offensive possessions. The Huskies are also #4 in adjusted defensive efficiency while allowing 0.915 points per opponent’s offensive possessions. On the other hand, Alabama has allowed 82 points or more in 6 of their last 7 games. Connecticut has held opponents to less than 40% shooting in 25 of their 38 games (65.8%) this season. Alabama has shot less than 40% 5 times this season and went 1-4 SU&ATS during those contests. Their only win in that sequence came in the NCAA Tournament versus Grand Canyon who’s a far cry from what they’re about to face tonight. Give me Connecticut minus points.

Since the 2017 NCAA Tournament, any #1 seed like UConn that was a favorite of between 7.0 to 14.0 in a Regional Final, National Semifinal, or Championship game have gone 5-0 SU&ATS with an average victory margin of 18.8 points per contest.  Give me Connecticut minus points.

 NC State vs. Purdue 6:09 PM ET

Game# 673-674

Play On: Purdue -9.0

The Cinderella NC State Wolfpack have been a nice story. They were just 17-14 during regular season action. However, once the postseason began, they went 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS which enabled them to reach this point. That includes 7-0 SU&ATS as an underdog. Yet, they find themselves as a 9.0-point underdog in this Final 4 matchup versus #1 seed Purdue. Here’s the caveat, since the 2017 NCAA Tournament, any #1 seed that was a favorite of between 7.0 to 14.0 in a Regional Final, National Semifinal, or Championship game have gone 5-0 SU&ATS with a substantial average victory margin of 18.8 points per contest. Although taking the red-hot sizable underdog is seemingly a very alluring option, recent history has shown that by doing so it’s been a losing proposition. Furthermore, from an analytical standpoint, Purdue has sizable advantages in rebounding, 3-point shooting percentage, and assist to field goal made percentage. Give me Purdue minus points.

Orioles (Wells) @ Pirates (Falter) 4:05 PM ET

Game# 973-974

Play On: Orioles -133

The Pirates Bailey Falter was terrible in 3 spring starts in addition to a shaky 2024 regular season debut. The Orioles Tyler Wells has 1 career start versus Pittsburgh and that came last season. During that outing, Wells was brilliant while allowing 0 earned runs on 1 hit and striking out 8 over 7.0 innings pitched. The Baltimore bullpen has been rock-solid thus far in 2024 with a staff 2.38 ERA/0.93 WHIP while also amassing better than a strikeout per inning pitched. Since the start of the 2021 season, the Orioles are an excellent 17-2 as a money line road favorite of -125 or greater and they outscored their opponents by an average of 2.7 runs per game. Give me the Orioles as a money line favorite.

Knicks @ Bulls 8:10 PM ET

Game# 545-546

Play On: Bulls -119 (ML)

Chicago is coming off a 1 13-101 loss to Atlanta in a game they closed as a 2.0-point home favorite. The Bulls are a perfect 7-0 this season when coming off a SU favorite loss by 10 or more and won by an average of 7.2 points per contest. Chicago is also 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 this season at home immediately following a home favorite SU loss and with an average victory margin of 10.2 points per contest. The Knicks are coming off yesterday’s home win over Sacramento. New York is 1-4 SU&ATS this season as a road underdog playing with no rest and were outscored by an average of 9.6 points per game. Give me the Bulls.

Astros @ Rangers 8:05 PM ET

Game# 917-918

Play On: Rangers +120

These teams played in the ALCS last season which was won by Texas in 7 games. The real oddity to that series was the road team winning on each occasion. I look for the home team Texas Rangers to put that trend to rest tonight. This will be the Astros first road game of the season and they’re currently a disappointing 2-5. The Houston bullpen has not performed well thus far while posting a staff 6.00 ERA/1.67 WHIP and they allowed 6 homers in just 21.0 innings pitched.

Any American League home team like Texas that’s averaging 5.4 runs or more scored per game, and they allowed 1 run or less in their previous game, resulted in those home teams going 30-6 (83.3%) since the start of the 2020 season. The home teams average outscoring those road clubs by an average of 2.7 runs per game. Give me the Rangers on the money line.

Seton Hall vs. Indiana State 7:00 PM ET

Game# 681-682

Play On: Indiana State -3.0

This NIT Championship Game will technically be played on a neutral floor. But, for all intents and purposes it might as well be an Indiana State home game based on the huge throng of Sycamore fans at their team’s NIT semifinal game at Hinkle Field House in Indianapolis, Indiana. The drive from their campus in Terre Haute to Indianapolis is just 76 miles and 75 minutes. That must be considered when handicapping this contest.

Regarding the level of competition that each team has faced in the NIT thus far. Indiana State has far and away played a more difficult level of opponents. Both teams were 1 of the last 4 teams left out of the NCAA Tournament by the committee. However, with all things being equal I firmly believe that a mid-major team like Indiana State will be the one with a bigger chip on their shoulder versus their power conference opponent. The oddsmakers seemingly agree with my stance as evidenced by them making Indiana State a favorite in this contest. Give me Indiana State minus points.

Georgia vs. Seton Hall 9:30 PM ET

Game# 663-664

Play On: Georgia +4.5

These teams have taken different paths to get to this point. Seton Hall has won 3 consecutive home games in the NIT to reach the semifinals. All 3 of their opponents were ranked #78 or worse by Ken Pom and they barely escaped with an overtime win over St. Joseph’s in a 1st round game. Conversely, Georgia has won their last 2 on the road at Wake Forest and Ohio State. All 3 of their NIT wins have come over teams that Ken Pom has ranked #58 or better. So not only has Georgia faced the tougher competition to reach this point but they did so with a pair of road wins. Lastly, they say the great equalizer for a College Basketball underdog is their ability to make 3-point shots at a high percentage. Well, Georgia has done exactly that in the 3 NIT contests while making a red-hot 44.1% of their 3-point shot attempts while averaging 10 makes per contest. Give me Georgia plus points.

Angels (Anderson) @ Marlins (Luzardo) 6:40 PM ET

Game# 971-972

Play On: Over 8.5

Both bullpens have been shaky to start the season and is a major reason for each team being involved in large percentage of high scoring games. The Marlins have witnessed all 5 of their games going over the total with a combined average of 11.8 runs scored per outing. The Angel have played 3-1 to the over thus far with a combined 11.7 runs being scored per game. The Halos smacked 6 homers in those 4 games. The Angels Tyler Anderson has pitched 31-11 (73.8%) to the over in his career road starts when there’s been a total of between 8.5 to 10.0. Anderson has also posted a lofty 5.67 ERA/1.50 in his career regular season appearances during the months of March and April. Give me this game to go over the total. The Angels will be facing Marlin’s lefty Jesus Luzardo. Dating back to last season, the Angeles have played 7-1 to the over in their last 8 on the road when facing a lefthanded starting pitcher with a combined average of 12.6 runs scored per outing. Give me this game to go over the total.

Giants (Keaton) @ Dodgers (Paxton) 10:10 PM ET

Game# 909-910

Play On: Over 8.5

San Francisco went over the total in each of their first 4 games of the season and there was a combined average of 11.7 runs scored per outing. During that stretch they averaged 6.2 runs scored per game and hit 6 homers. The Giants starter Keaton made 1 career start versus the Dodgers, and it came last season. He allowed 6 earned run and included 3 homers in just 5 1/3 innings pitched. The Dodgers have scored 5 or more runs in each of their first 6 games and have smacked 10 homers. Give me this game to go over the total.

Yankees (Gil) @ Diamondbacks (Nelson) 9:40 PM ET

Game# 927-928

Play On: Yankees -114

Diamondbacks starter Ryne Nelson has terrible numbers in his career team starts at home and all appearances during the month of April. Aince the art of last season, Arizona is 10-22 versus American League teams like the Yankees who are allowing an average of 4.4 runs or less per game.

Both teams are off to a great start with the Yankees at 4-0 and Arizona 3-1. However, the Yankees bullpen didn’t allow an earned run in their 4-game sweep at Houston. Yankee starter Luis Gill was sharp in 3 spring training starts with a 2.87 ERA, 0.83 WHIP and struck out 23 batters in 15 2/3 innings pitched. The Yankees allowed 4 runs or fewer in each of their 4 wins at Houston to start the season. Since the start of last season, the Yankees are an extremely profitable 11-2 on the road after allowing 4 runs or less in each of their previous 4 games. Give me the Yankees on the money line.

Reds (Abbott) @ Phillies (Sanchez) 6:40 PM ET

Game# 905-906

Play On: Reds +132

One thing that’s been consistent for the Phillies over the last 2 years as they’ve been an underachieving bunch in the 1st half of the season and terrific during the remainder of both seasons. The Phillies started the season 1-2 and their bullpen has been horrible. Cincinnati has won 2 of their first 3 while averaging 6.7 runs scored per game and hit 6 homers while doing so. Reds starter Andrew Abbott went 9-3 in his team starts as a money line road underdog of +100 or greater last season. Abbot was also 6-0 in his team starts since last season whenever there was a total of 8.5 to 10.0 like it currently is for this matchup. Give me the Reds as a money line underdog.

Jazz @ Kings 9:10 PM ET

Game# 549-550

Play On: Under 223.0

Sacramento has played 10-1 to the under in their last 11 and 6-0 under in their previous 6 games. The Kings scored 109 points or fewer in each of their last 5 while shooting only 42.6% from the field and averaged just 20 free throw attempts per contest. Utah is averaging only 106.4 points per game in the last 5 while making a mere 28.5% of their 3-point shot attempts. The Jazz played 6-2 to the under during their previous 8 games. Give me this game to go under the total.

Mavericks @ Rockets 7:10 PM ET

Game# 543-544

Play On: Rockets +2.5

Dallas is coming off a win at Sacramento and did so as a 1.5-point underdog.  The Mavericks are an abysmal 1-9 ATS this season following a SU underdog win and were outscored by an average of 8.9 points per contest. Houston enters today on a season high 11-game win streak. Their most recent win was 101-100 at Utah. The Rockets are a perfect 10-0 SU at home this season immediately following a contest in which they scored 105 points or fewer and they did so by 10.4 points per occurrence. Give me the Rockets plus points.

NC State vs. Duke 5:05 PM ET

Game# 657-658

Play On: NC State +7.5

Duke is coming off a physically and emotionally draining 54-51 win over #1 seed Houston on Friday night. I know it’s the NCAA Tournament and the sense of urgency rises to a whole other level. However, I find it hard to believe that the physical and emotional toll that Duke needed to pull off their upset over Houston has at the very least a small carryover into Sunday’s Regional Final. Besides the fact they’re playing a red-hot NC State team that’s gone 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS this postseason and includes 6-0 SU&ATS as an underdog. Give me NC State plus points.

Cavaliers @ Nuggets 3:40 PM ET

Game# 531-532

Play On: Over 215.5

Since the start of last season these teams have played 3 times and each went over the total with a combined average of 227.7 points scored per game. Cleveland has seen each of their last 4 go over the total by an average of 11.4 points per game. Denver is coming off a 111-98 loss to Minnesota in a game they shot a dismal 39.8% from the field. The Nuggets have played 4-1 to the over this season following a game in which they shot worse than 40% and there was 231.8 points score per contest. Give me this game to go over the total.

Tennessee vs. Purdue 2:20 PM ET

Game# 655-656

Play On: Under 148.5

These teams met in the Maui Invitational earlier this season and Purdue walked away with a 71-67 win. That contest went over the total despite Purdue shooting 35% and Tennessee 33% from the floor. However, there was a unordinary 78 free throw attempts combined in that contests which resulted in 50 points scored. It’s highly improbable we will see anywhere near that volume in this contest.

Tennessee is ranked 3rd nationally in defensive efficiency and Purdue is 7th. Tennessee is coming off an 82-75 win over Creighton on Friday. The Volunteers have played 12-3 to the under in away or neutral site games since the start of last season after scoring 80 points or more in their previous contest. Those 15 contests averaged only a combined 132.1 points scored per game. Purdue has committed 10 turnovers or fewer in each of their 3 NCAA Tournament games. Since the start of last season, the Boilermakers have played 7-0 to the under after committing 11 turnovers or fewer in each of their previous 3 games and there was only a combined average of 131.7 points scored per contest. Purdue has allowed 12.0 free throw attempts per game thus far in the NCAA Tournament and Tennessee 14.7 per contest. Tennessee has shot less than 40% in 5 of their last 7 games. Give me this game to go under the total.

Clemson vs. Alabama 8:49 PM ET

Game# 653-654

Play On: Clemson +3.5

I’ve mentioned numerous times on camera and in text about not overlooking free throws as part of your process when handicapping a game. Alabama is #319 nationally in free throw attempts allowed because of their aggressive defensive nature in an attempt to speed up the pace of games to their liking. Conversely, Clemson is #9 nationally in free throw percentage while making a terrific 78.7% of their attempts this season. Alabama has allowed 27.3 free throw attempts per contest throughout their first 3 NCAA Tournament games.

Alabama is coming off an 89-87 win over #1 seed North Carolina in the Sweet 16. However, since the start of last season, the Crimson Tide has gone a dismal 0-5 SU when coming off a win by 6 points or fewer in an away or neutral site game and lost by 15.2 points per contest. On the other side of the ledger, Clemson has gone 5-0 SU this season in an away or neutral side game when facing opponents like Alabama who average 62 or more field goal attempts per game and with a sizable average victory margin of 19.4 points per outing. Clemson has also gone 7-0 SU this season when in non-conference games when facing teams that made the 2024 NCAA Tournament. Clemson has been outstanding defensively in their first 3 NCAA Tournament game while holding opponents to a mere 34.3% shooting.

Lastly, Alabama is a team that shoots a high volume of 3-point shots. Specifically speaking, the Crimson Tide has seen 46.3% of their field goal attempts this season come from 3-point territory. However, Clemson has held their 3 NCAA Tournament opponents to 14-75 (18.3%) from beyond the 3-point line. Give me Clemson plus points.

Illinois vs. Connecticut 6:09 PM ET

Game# 651-652

Play On: Illinois +9.0

I am not going to waste my time nor yours attempting to poke holes into a UConn team that has few if any to dive into. I have contended from the start that Illinois was the most serious threat to UConn in the East Region. I am just 1 more monumental effort by the Illini from being prophetic with that statement. Nevertheless, we aren’t taking about an NCAA Tournament bracket prediction and more importantly picking a point-spread winner. Illinois is an extremely profitable 6-1 ATS as an underdog this season and won 4 of those 7 contests outright. They also have a superstar player in Terrance Shannon Jr. Who is averaging 30.4 points scored per contest during Illinois current 7-game unbeaten streak. But, the Illini also possess an outstanding supporting cast beyond Shannon. Give me Illinois plus points.

Creighton vs. Tennessee 10:10 PM ET

Game# 641-642

Play On: Tennessee -3.0

After starting the season 4-3, Tennessee went 22-5 in their next 27 games. All 8 of the Vols losses this year came against opponents in the 2024 NCAA Tournament field. Conversely, Creighton (25-9) has sustained 6 losses this season versus teams that weren’t in this year’s NCAA Tournament. Tennessee hangs their hat on their stifling defensive play that analytically ranks #3 nationally. I am very confident that Tennessee’s defensive prowess and them being a more athletic side in this matchup will push them to a win and cover. Give me Tennessee minus points.

Purdue vs. Gonzaga 7:39 PM ET

Game# 639-640

Play On: Over 154.5

These are 2 very good offensive teams. Purdue is #3 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency while Gonzaga is #3. Purdue is #1 nationally in 3-point shooting while making 40.1% of their attempts this season. The Boilermakers are also #9 nationally when it comes to free throw attempts. During their previous 5 contests Gonzaga has averaged 78.8 points scored per game, shot 51.9% from the field, and made an excellent 47.4% of their 3-point shot attempts. Throughout their previous 5 outings, Purdue average s80.8 points scored per game, shot 48.8%, and made a superb 41.1% of their 3-point shot attempts. Give me this game to go over the total.

NC State vs. Marquette 7:09 PM ET

Game# 643-644

Play On: Marquette -6.5

NC State is 7-0 SU in their last 7 and that includes winning 5 times as an underdog. Yet here they are as a sizable underdog in the Sweet 16. Truth be told, the Wolfpack caught a luck break in the Round of 32 while facing #14 seed Oakland who upset Kentucky in 1st round action. Even then, they barely escaped with a 6-point win in overtime. However, I firmly believe their Cinderella run ends right here and in a decisive manner. Tyler Kolek returned to the lineup for the NCAA Tournament and teaks what is a very good team without him to a great team with him. During the first 2 rounds of the NCAA Tournament Kolek has averaged 19.5 points scored, 11.0 assists, and 5.5 rebound per game in wins over Western Kentucky and Colorado. Give me Marquette minus points.

Illinois vs. Iowa State 10:10 PM ET

Game# 631-632

Play On: Illinois +1.5

Illinois is #1 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency and Iowa State is #1 defensively. So, something must be given. The overused cliche is defense wins championships and there’s data to back up that statement. However, this is an exception to the rule in my mind. The Cyclones are just 69% from the free throw line and that’s a concern when you get this far in the NCAA Tournament and are involved in what is seemingly an even matchup such as this one. Additionally, as good as Iowa State is defensively, they allow opponents to get to the free throw line frequently and rank #230 nationally in the category. Illinois is a solid free throw shooting team at 74.2% and is in the top 20% of college basketball teams when it comes to free throw attempts. Iowa State is one of the best teams in the country when it relates to forcing turnovers. Nevertheless, Illinois has committed turnovers on just 15% of their offensive possessions this season which is very good.

I very seldom refer to players when giving my handicapping analysis. However, Illinois guard Terrance Shannon will be unequivocally the best player on the floor tonight. He’s not only a deadly 3-point shooter but can beat defenders off the dribble and gets fouled quite frequently when doing so. Since the start of the Big Ten Tournament, Shannon is averaging 31.6 points per game, made 41.7% of his 3-point shot attempts, and has a excellent 87.9% conversion rate on free throws. Keep in mind, this is the same Terrance Shannon Jr. that was a key contributor as a freshman on a Texas Tech team that lost the 2020 national championship team in overtime. Give me Illinois.

Clemson vs. Arizona 9:40 PM ET

Game# 635-636

Play On: Under 152.5

Arizona has seen each of their last 5 go under the total. The average total in those 5 contests was 156.7 and there was just a combined 136.8 points scored per game. Throughout those previous 5 contests Arizona allowed 65.4 points per game, oppoents shot 39.9% from the field, and made only 27.9% of their 3-point shot attempts. The Wildcats have allowed 65 points or fewer in their last 4 and 6 of the previous 8 games.

Clemson faced 2 formidable offensive opponents in Baylor and New Mexico during the first 2 games of the NCAA Tournament. They held them to an average of 60.0 points scored per game and a mere 33.8% shooting from the field.  Clemson has seen their last 3 go under with an average total of 148.2 and there was just a combined 133.3 points scored per game. Give me this game to go under the total.

UNLV @ Seton Hall 7:00 PM ET

Game# 621-622

Play On: UNLV +6.5

Seton Hall needed overtime at home to knock off St. Joseph’s in NIT 1st round action. They were much better in their 2nd round 72-58 home win over North Texas. Prior to the NIT, Seton Hall had gone just 6-7 SU in their last 13 games.

UNLV finished the year strong and has carried that over to the NIT with wins vs Princeton and Boston College. The Rebels are 12-3 SU&ATS over their last 15 contests. UNLV has also gone 9-1 ATS in their last 10 as an underdog and won 6 of those 10 games SU. Furthermore, UNLV has gone 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS during their previous 9 games versus teams not making the NCAA Tournament. Give me UNLV plus points.

UNLV @ Seton Hall 7:00 PM ET

Game# 621-622

Play On: Over 143.0

Both teams prefer to play at a slower than average pace by this season’s college basketball standards. However, with that being side this total went from an opener of 140.5 to 142.0 despite a high percentage of betting tickets and money being wagered on the under. UNLV has gone 16-34 (47.1%) from 3-point territory in their first 2 NIT games. Conversely, Seton Hall has made a more than respectful 36% of their 3-point shot attempts in their first 2 NIT games. The Pirates are also #17 nationally in making free throws at an excellent 77.1% and that includes 80% over their previous 5 games. UNLV has played 4-0 to the over in their last 4 with a combined 148.8 points scored per game and with an average total of 139.0. Seton Hallas has played 4-0 to the over in their previous 4 when the number was between 135.0 and 144.5 with a combined 153.0 points scored per game. Give me this game to go over the total.

IPFW @ Norfolk State 7:00 PM ET

Game# 627-628

Play On: Norfolk State +1.5

Norfolk State is a beneficiary of playing in the CIT where the higher seeded teams play at home. That’s especially significant considering their 14-0 at home this season. When eliminating their 4 games played at home versus non-Division 1 opponents, Norfolk still outscored their 10 opponents by 12.5 points per game. This will also be the first time all season that Norfolk State is a home underdog. The current total in this contest is 145.5. Norfolk State is 10-1 SU this season when the total was between 140.0 to 149.5 and they outscored those opponents by an average of 7.8 points per game. Norfolk State is also 13th nationally in free throw attempts and they’ve converted a respectable 72.3% of those opportunities. Conversely, IPFW has averaged just 12 free throw attempts per game during their previous 5 contests. Give me Norfolk State.

Mavericks @ Kings 10:10 PM ET

Game# 541-542

Play On: Under 233.5

Dallas has played 4-0 to the under in their last 4 with an average total of 235.8 and only a combined 215.5 points being scored per game. The Mavericks have allowed 107 points or fewer in 6 of their last 7 games. Sacramento has played 8-0 to the under in their last 8 when the total was 218.0 or greater and with a combined average of just 212.3 points scored per game. The Kings have allowed 109 points or fwer in each of their previous 9 games. Give me this game to go under the total.

Warriors @ Heat 7:40 ET

Game# 535-536

Play On: Warriors -2.5

Miami has been a tad better on the road than at home this season. As a matter of fact, the Heat have lost 3 of their last 4 at home. Conversely, Golden State has gone 11-4 SU in their last 15 on the road. The Warriors are coming off losses in each of their previous 2. However, Golden State has gone 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 immediately following back-to-back losses and with an average victory margin of 11.0 points per game. The Warriors haven’t lost 3 straight games since 12/30/2023. Give me the Warriors minus points.

Texas A&M @ Houston 8:40 PM ET

Game# 835-836

Play On: Texas A&M +10.5

Houston is coming off an impressive 86-46 blowout win over #16 seed Longwood. However, as crazy as this may sound, I thought Texas A&M was even more impressive in Friday’s 98-83 win over Nebraska. The Aggies are one of just a handful of teams in college basketball that’s capable of dealing with Houston’s athleticism and rebounding prowess. The Aggies have now scored 80 points or more in each of their previous 5. Houston has developed the reputation in recent seasons of being an elite offensive rebounding team and they still are. But Texas A&M ranks #1 nationally this season in offensive rebounding and they retrieved 14 of those in their opening round win over Nebraska despite shooting an exceptional 57.4% from the field and 56.5% from 3-point range. The Aggies had 5 players score in double figures and includes 3 that tallied 20 or more. These teams played on a neutral floor earlier this season and Houston won 70-66 but failed to cover as a 7.0-point favorite. Give me Texas A&M plus points.

Northwestern vs. Connecticut 7:45 PM ET

Game# 825-826

Play On: Connecticut -14.0

Connecticut has more size, speed, and athleticism than Northwestern is capable of competing with over an entire 40-minute game which will wear them down in the 2nd half. Northwestern is coming off an overtime win over an FAU team that faltered a bit during the 2nd half of the season and ultimately led to a premature exit from the tournament. They won’t be as fortunate in this matchup as UConn is peaking at the right time. Give me UConn minus points.

Grand Canyon vs. Alabama 7:10 PM ET

Game# 839-840

Play On: Grand Canyon +6.0

If you watched Grand Canyon (30-4) upset nationally ranked St. Mary’s on Friday in Spokane, Washington then you know the Antelopes had overwhelming supports from their fanbase inside the building. That won’t change on Sunday and will serve as a huge emotional lift for the underdog. Grand Canyon was 28-36 (77.8%) from the free throw line in that win. Grand Canyon is #3 nationally in getting to the free throw line and has made 75.4% of those attempts. Conversely, Alabama is #320 nationally in free throw attempts allowed with much attributed to their aggressive defensive style. Grand Canyon’s interior defense was sensational versus St. Mary’s evidenced by 9 blocked shots. Alabama is #347 in the country in getting their shot attempts blocked. Another advantage Grand Canyon will have in on the offensive glass where they rank #32 nationally. On the other hand, Alabama is #236 in defensive rebounding. Give me Grand Canyon plus points.

Clemson vs. Baylor 6:10 PM ET

Game# 833-834

Play On: Over 144.5

Clemson is coming off a surprisingly easy 77-56 win over New Mexico on Friday. The Tigers have played 7-1 to the over this season immediately following a win by 15 or more and there was a combined average of 156.4 points scored per game. From an analytical standpoint, these are 2 of the best offensive teams in the country. Baylor ranks 5th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency while Clemson is #23. Baylor is also the 4th best 3-point shooting team nationally while making 39.4% of their attempts. The Bears are also 25th best in getting to the free throw line while going 74.8% on those attempts. Clemson is 8th nationally in free throw percentage while making 78.8% of their tries. Give me this game to go over the total.

Marquette vs. Colorado 12:10 PM ET

Game# 829-830

Play On: Marquette -3.5

Marquette reached the Big East Conference Tournament Final where they fell to the defending national champion Connecticut. They played in that tournament without star point guard Tyler Kolek who was nursing an abdominal injury. Kolek returned for Marquette’s 87-69 win over Morehead State on Friday and contributed 18 points, 11 assists, and 6 turnovers. With Kolek in the lineup, Marquette is capable of beating anybody. Colorado is coming off a 102-100 win versus Florida on Friday in a game they tried to give away in the last 2 minutes. They’ll have trouble with Marquette’s relentless defensive pressure and will be prone to a plethora of turnovers leading to easy transitions baskets for Marquette. The Golden Eagles have played a much more gueling schedule than Colorado this season and it will pay dividends in this matchup. Give me Marquette minus points. Give me Marquette minus points.

Duquesne vs. Illinois 8:40 PM ET

Game# 797-798

Play On: Illinois -9.5

Duquesne is coming off a huge upset win as a 9.5-point underdog on Thursday versus #6 seed BYU of the vaunted Big 12 Conference. The #11 seed Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament champion is now 16-3 in their last 19 and that includes a current 9-game win streak. However, Illinois presents a whole different challenge than BYU. The Illini are #2 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency and are a very good offensive rebounding team. If Duquesne has a weakness defensively it’s their rebounding. Duquesne ranks #222 nationally in defensive rebounding while Illinois is #16 on the offensive glass. Illinois will also have the best player on the court in this matchup Terrance Shannon Jr. who is a huge difference maker. During his 3 games in the Big 10 Tournament and in the NCAA Round of 64 versus Morehead State during an 85-69 win, Shannon has averaged 30.5 points per contest. Lastly, Illinois has gone a perfect 6-0 SU&ATS in their last 6 following a win by 15 or more and as a favorite of 5.0 or greater.  The average margin of victory in those 6 wins and covers came by a substantial average of 28.3 points per game. Give me Illinois minus points.

Virginia Tech @ Ohio State 7:00 PM ET

Game# 805-806

Play On: Ohio State -3.5

Virginia Tech has gone an abysmal 2-9 SU&ATS in true road games this season, and that includes 1-8 SU&ATS as an underdog. The Hokies have played terrible defense down the season’s final stretch while allowing opponents to shoot 50% or better in 7 of their last 10 games. Conversely, during their previous 5 contests, Ohio State has averaged 81.8 points scored per game, shot 49.5% from the field and made an excellent 43.0% of their 3-point shot attempts. For whatever reason the Buckeyes have been playing great basketball since their head coach was fired while going 6-1 SU&ATS during those contests. The Buckeyes are also 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 at home while outscoring their opponents by 9.0 points per game. Give me Ohio State minus points.