Sports Picks & Predictions

All Sports Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
04-20-24	Magic v. Cavs OVER 207.5		83-97	Loss	-108	12 h 52 m	Show
Magic/Cavs 1:00: Defensive intensity picking up in playoffs. In addition, two defensive minded coaches who know each other well. Both teams are solid defensively. However, I'm not buying into the low total. Despite the defensive discipline, these teams managed to go "over" in 4 of the last 6 clashes, including 2-0 O/U in the last 2 in Cleveland. Based on the numbers, I was projecting a total of around 215 and this one comes in under 208. Both offenses are efficient and execute well. Orlando's Suggs, Banchero and Wagner can put up numbers. Cleveland's backcourt duo of Garland and Mitchell are very good at penetrating, scoring and kicking out to open perimeter shooters. "Over" the call.
04-16-24	Warriors v. Kings UNDER 223		94-118	Win	100	5 h 42 m	Show
Warriors/Kings 10:00: Both teams are well disciplined defensively. Both of these teams picked up defensive intensity down the stretch of the regular season. Both of these teams allowed approximately 115 PPG during the season. Over the last 10 games, Warriors allowed an average of 108 PPG while Kings yielded 104 PPG. This playoff series last year went "under" in 4 of 6. And both games in Sacramento combined to average 220. With a play on or go home mentality, "Under" is the smart call here.
03-31-24	NC State v. Duke UNDER 143.5		76-64	Win	100	14 h 19 m	Show

03-03-24	Indiana v. Maryland UNDER 136.5		83-78	Loss	-110	12 h 24 m	Show
Indiana/MD 2:00: Both of these teams struggle offensively - 12th and 13th in Big Ten offensive production. MD clunks from beyond the arc at 28.2%. Indiana has trouble scoring on the road. Terps do bring defensive intensity and that should be a constant here. Terps are 0-8 O/U at home vs teams with losing records on the road. And 5 of the last 6 in this series has gone "under". We'll stay "under" here.
02-28-24	Oklahoma v. Iowa State UNDER 137		45-58	Win	100	6 h 54 m	Show
Oklahoma/Iowa State 8:00: This is the second game in this season series. Oklahoma took the first one 71-63 in Norman. Iowa State tough to beat at home where they're undefeated this season. Otzelberger's defense allows a stingy 63 PPG. The Cyclones pack the paint often in a man to zone switch at any given instant. Teams that can kick out and hit threes have moderate success. Oklahoma is not a great 3-point shooting team at a 34% clip. On the other hand, Porter Moser is another defensive minded coach who will have his boys schooled to bring optimum intensity. And they guard the perimeter well at 29% - 10th nationally. The last 3 played at Iowa State in this series combined for 122, 129 and 111, respectively. We'll look for both teams to ratchet up the defensive intensity again to stay "under"
02-19-24	Iowa State v. Houston UNDER 132		65-73	Loss	-110	2 h 53 m	Show

02-15-24	Warriors v. Jazz OVER 240		140-137	Win	100	2 h 34 m	Show
Warriors/Jazz 9:10: Both of these teams are coming off losses last night. Utah defense was torched from the perimeter as the LeBron-less Lakers sank 14 of 31 from the perimeter at a 45.2% clip. Now they face the NBA's all-time perimeter scorer who has sunk at least 6 trey bombs in 8 of his last 11 games. And usually before All-Star break teams will dismiss defensive prep - lots of them already checked out for break. Going unrested, I see that magnified tonight. We'll grab the "over"
12-30-23	Lions v. Cowboys OVER 52		19-20	Loss	-105	17 h 23 m	Show
Lions/Cowboys 8:15: Cowboys have been offensively prolific at home this season posting 30 or more points in all 7 of their games in Arlington. Detroit's defense has been vulnerable on the road. Throw out the dominant 6 points they allowed at Tampa Bay October 15th, and they've allowed 28 PPG. The Lions' defense also is in the bottom tier in allowing explosive plays. Prescott sports a 20:2 TD:INT ratio at home on 74% completions. Cee Dee Lamb has been virtually unstoppable while Cooks adds to the fire. And TE Ferguson is that go-to 3rd down guy. On the other hand, the Lions sport the NFL's 3rd ranked offense and close with 27.5 PPG. Cowboys show vulnerability to the run lately and Parsons has been neutralized over his last 3 games. Cowboys are 7-0 O/U as a non-division home favorite of less than 6 points when the O/U is set below 56 points. We'll go "over" here.
12-30-23	Ole Miss v. Penn State UNDER 51.5		38-25	Loss	-110	11 h 26 m	Show
Ole Miss/Penn State Noon: Both of these teams surprisingly near full strength with limited opt outs. Penn State has a handful of 2024 future NFL draft picks questionable at this time. They'll either see limited time or not play. Nevertheless, the Lions' sport a deep defensive unit that is #1 in yards allowed (223 per game), #1 in sacks (4.1 per game), #3 in scoring (11.4 PPG). When Ole Miss played physical defenses as such, they were stalled out. Alabama limited them to 10 points and Georgia held them to 17. On the other hand, Penn State offense no juggernaut. Penn State OC Yurcich fired after Michigan game. Fortunately, Penn State relied on a strong run game and dominant defense in final two games. QB Drew Allar didn't play well against his two biggest foes - OSU and Michigan. And the receivers could not get separation. Ole Miss' defense respectable vs the run (3.9 YPC), have a ball hawking secondary, and allowed a respectable 22.3 PPG in the strong SEC. This early game we'll look to stay "under".
12-26-23	Texas State v. Rice OVER 59.5		45-21	Win	100	17 h 51 m	Show
Texas State/Rice 5:30: Should be an entertaining game. Two offenses that should flourish here. Texas State has a well-balanced offense under offensive minded HC Kinne. Kinne has Auburn transfer T.J. Finley directing a potent offense scoring 36 PPG. The 10th rank offense in the nation should be able to work a mediocre rice defense that doesn't rush the passer very well; consequently, back end is stressed throughout games. What Texas State doesn't have is a defense. They're in the bottom tier of the NCAA. They give up many an explosive play. Rice doesn't have much of a run game but that could change today vs the yielding Bobcats' run-stop-unit. QB Padgett showed he can run Bloomgren's offense after J.T. Daniels was forced to retire after multiple concussions. We'll go "over" here.
12-24-23	Patriots v. Broncos UNDER 37.5		26-23	Loss	-110	1 h 31 m	Show

12-21-23	Saints v. Rams OVER 45		22-30	Win	100	7 h 18 m	Show
Saints/Rams 8:15: Both of these teams' coaching staffs have emphasized closing in the red zone; particularly, New Orleans. Saints have scored TDs in 9 of its last 10 trips to the red zone. Rams' defense has been yielding this year and vulnerable in spots. And Derek Carr has main weapon Olave back for this one. On the other hand, Rams' well-balanced offense should give Saints' defense trouble. Saints have been able to stall out one dimensional offensive teams like NY and Carolina the last few weeks; however, Rams have too much weaponry to limit, especially with top corner Lattimore (IR) still out. Rams are 11-2 O/U in 2nd of back-to-back home games vs teams above .333. Over the call.
12-07-23	Patriots v. Steelers UNDER 30		21-18	Loss	-110	21 h 1 m	Show
Patriots/Steelers 8:15: Plummeting 'total' pretty much dictates the number of points expected here. Both offenses are abysmal. Defenses, however, are solid. Both veteran coaches know the value of maintaining drives, utilizing run game and burning clock without turnovers. We'll look for the punters to work overtime tonight. "Under" the call.
11-27-23	Bears v. Vikings UNDER 44		12-10	Win	100	19 h 26 m	Show
Bears/Vikings 8:15: I projected about 43 to 43' on this 'total' so we get some value. Limiting turnovers and ball control emphasized on both teams. Vikings playing with Dobbs who is 2-1 O/U. Vikings 3-8 O/U for the season. Defense of Vikings has improved dramatically under DC Flores this season. Fields and explosive WR Moore with versatile RB Herbert will be focal points. On the other hand, liked how the Bears' defense improved since that October 5th game at Washington. They've gone 2-4 O/U since. We'll look for a physical battle with limited explosive plays. "Under" the call.
11-26-23	Patriots v. Giants UNDER 34		7-10	Win	100	13 h 13 m	Show
Patriots/Giants 1:00: Patriots had an extra week to prepare and surely Belichick has devised a scheme to fluster rookie QB Devito after his stellar performance vs Washington. Belichick has made many rookie QBs miserable in his career. On the other hand, Belichick doesn't know who he's starting today. And that's no threat to the Giants' defensive coordinator Martindale. Add Jones, Zappe and Grier's QBR together and it barely equals Belichick's shoe size. With the turnover potential great here, conservative run oriented football with limited explosive play would be the consensus. Patriots 2-14 O/U as a non-conference favorite of more than a point. "Under" the call.
11-24-23	Dolphins v. Jets UNDER 40.5		34-13	Loss	-110	14 h 40 m	Show
Dolphins/Jets 3:00: Jets will rely on run game with Breece Hall (4.7 YPC) to ignite their pedestrian offense. Surely Saleh won't put the game in the hands of perennial backup QB Tim Boyle (3 TDs/9 INTs in career). Miami defense now showing late season signs of improvement now that Ramsey is in the fold and players in tune with DC Fangio system. On the other hand, Jets' defense keeps them in games. They'll have their hands full with the #1 offense in the NFL; however, Miami offensive line banged up across the board and the Jets can rush the passer. They also have the quality secondary personnel to limit explosive plays. Miami 1-3 O/U on road. Jets on an 0-5 O/U run. This series in New York is 1-4 O/U. "Under"
11-17-23	Colorado v. Washington State OVER 61		14-56	Win	100	9 h 31 m	Show
Colorado/Washington State 10:30: Both of these teams are similar in structure: Explosive, pass happy offense, no run game, and poor defense. Colorado's QB Sanders has lit up secondaries ranked in the bottom tier of FBS teams. Washington State has one of those secondaries (112th). What's more, they're not pressuring or sacking the QB, not opportunistic (bottom tier in interceptions and fumble recoveries) and in the bottom tier in defensive penalties. On the other hand, Colorado defense, which allows 31 PPG, has a secondary ranked 118th in the nation and have trouble sacking the QB (bottom tier). Cameron Ward is equally impressive lighting up defenses with his arm to his speedy receiving corps. This 'total' inexplicably dropped a few points (64) since its opening. Take the "over".
11-14-23	Akron v. Eastern Michigan UNDER 39		27-30	Loss	-110	18 h 53 m	Show
Akron/Eastern Michigan 7:00: Both of these offenses are brutal to watch. Ever since Akron lost their QB Irons - early in the season, they've been relying solely on RB Lingard. He can only do so much. QB Undercuffler Jr. has shown promise but limited help on the offensive line and from receivers Gathings and George. Akron does play a decent defense - allowing 28 PPG - good considering the limitations on offense (132nd in points produced). EM offense every bit as bad with Austin Smith. EM at the bottom of the FBS in offensive yards produced (132nd). And the Eagles' defense, which allows 25 PPG, keeps them in games against teams they can be competitive with. We'll look for a slugfest here in a low scoring game.
11-13-23	Broncos v. Bills UNDER 47.5		24-22	Win	100	19 h 30 m	Show
Broncos/Bills 8:15: Denver's defense improved dramatically since that 70-point debacle September 24th. Broncos have hit 3 straight "under". Buffalo's Allen has had trouble with turnovers; as a matter of fact, 14 interceptions last 13 games dating back to last season. Bills have gone "under" in 4 of the last 5 scoring 25 points or less. Finishing in the red zone has been a problem over that stretch. On the other hand, Bills defense has been hit with injuries across the board. Their defense is yielding but tight in red zone when it counts yielding just 17.8 PPG. Denver should be able to drive yet stall out inside 20 yard line. Broncos non-explosive play team with no vertical threats to speak of. Prime Time TV games at 7-25 O/U and NFL MNF 1-10 O/U. Stay "under".
11-12-23	Browns v. Ravens UNDER 38		33-31	Loss	-109	11 h 4 m	Show
Browns/Ravens 1:00: Two defenses that are tops in the NFL. Ravens' defense allows just 13.8 PPG while the Browns allow 17.4 PPG. Baltimore offense percolating under OC Monken; however, Ravens have just beaten teams senseless down field with limited explosive plays (20+ yards). Cleveland very tough to pound the course of the field on. In contrast, Browns a non-explosive offense themselves regardless of who is at the helm. Tough sledding against this Ravens' defense. Take the "Under" in limited scoring here.
10-29-23	Bears v. Chargers OVER 46.5		13-30	Loss	-110	18 h 38 m	Show
Bears/Chargers 8:20: Both defenses leave much to be desired - ranking in the bottom of the league in most categories. Bears' QB Bagent stepped in last week like he's been doing this for years. Great poise, pocket awareness, and a go-to target D.J. Moore who's been virtually uncoverable. Meanwhile, Herbert should shred a the fourth worst secondary in the NFL. Bears give up nearly 27 PPG. Chicago is 6-1 O/U this season. We'll look for a higher scoring game here.
10-22-23	Chargers v. Chiefs OVER 47.5		17-31	Win	100	15 h 52 m	Show
Chargers/Chiefs 4:25: When these teams go at it, they tend to put up points, especially in KC; as a matter of fact, the last 4 games in this series at KC averaged 54 with a range of 51 to 59. Both gunslingers - Mahomes and Herbert are equipped with most of their key weapons. Weather should be nice at game time (72 degrees and sunny). Chargers got swept in this series last year. When they're in a revenge mode off a SU loss, they're 8-1 O/U. Over the call.
10-18-23	Florida International v. Sam Houston State UNDER 42		33-27	Loss	-110	2 h 24 m	Show
FIU/SHS 7:00: Both of these teams have offenses stuck in the mud. Sam Houston has one of the worst offenses in college football with virtually no run game (2.4 YPC). Offensive line problems allow defenses to pin their ears back and tee off on them. FIU is not a defensive stalwart by no means. They hemorrhage yardage by the boatload but do tighten a bit in the red zone, which is a weakness of the Bearkats' offense. On the flip side, SHS has a defense that keeps them in games and FIU does not have explosive play arsenal. We'll stay "under" here.
10-08-23	Saints v. Patriots UNDER 39		34-0	Win	100	15 h 36 m	Show
Saints/Patriots 1:00 Both offenses struggling mightily. Saints have now scored 21 or fewer points in 10 straight games. Patriots, despite the injuries, will surely be schematically sound under Belichick after disastrous game last week. And New Orleans has been solid most of the year defensively. We'll stay "under" here. Patriots 2-14 O/U as a non-conference favorite. Under the call.
09-17-23	Jets v. Cowboys UNDER 38.5		10-30	Loss	-110	14 h 41 m	Show
Jets/Cowboys 4:25: With the exception of SF, these two teams arguably had the best defensive performances last week. Cowboys' pass rush was unstoppable and that doesn't bode well against Zach Wilson and his shaky offensive line. On the other hand, Jets' defense is in great hands under Ulbrich. They're deep in all areas. Cowboys have gone conservative under McCarthy as the new signal caller. Can't see McCarthy giving green light to Prescott to air it out repeatedly against this loaded secondary of the Jets. We'll look for a defensive battle here in a lower scoring game. "Under" the call.
09-16-23	TCU v. Houston OVER 64		36-13	Loss	-105	18 h 15 m	Show
TCU/Houston 8:00: Both teams are in the bottom tier of defensive yards allowed. The two offensive minded head coaches: Dykes and Holgorsen should guide the offenses to big numbers. We won't be afraid of the high and going higher posted 'total'. "Over" the call.
09-10-23	Dolphins v. Chargers UNDER 51		36-34	Loss	-110	14 h 44 m	Show
Dolphins/Chargers 4:25: This is a rematch from last year's 23-17 Chargers' win. A few changes on the coaching staffs should keep this score down under the surprising high total. Dolphins are now led by arguably the best defensive mind in the league - Vic Fangio. He'll have his secondary in the right places and dial up the needed blitzes, drops, etc. to limit explosive plays from a dangerous receiving corps and a great QB Herbert. On the other hand, Fangio's understudy - Staley - promoted defensive backs coach Ansley to DC. He did a solid job with coverage last year (4th vs the pass). And he has a serious set of edge rushers (Bosa, Mack, Tuipulotu) to force Tua into errant throws. "Under' the call.
08-21-23	Ravens v. Commanders UNDER 38		28-29	Loss	-110	17 h 54 m	Show
Baltimore/Washington 8:00: Defenses a bit ahead of the offenses for these teams. Washington is coming off a 17-15 win over Cleveland. Jack Del Rio, in his 4th season as Washington's DC, has some quality young talent to work with late. On the offensive side, Commanders have established Sam Howell as their starter and he most likely will sit. Jacoby Brissett is a solid veteran backup that can set up scoring drives but it will be difficult to deliver explosive plays on the Ravens' defense under Mike MacDonald. And why QB Jake Fromm is still in the league is one of life's mysteries. On the other hand, Ravens' OC Monken, in his first year engineering the offense, will go with veteran journeyman Josh Johnson and second-year man - Anthony Brown. Johnson nor versatile Brown will have the explosive unit of receivers/back: Flowers, Beckam, Andrews, Dobbins - at their disposal. Don't see a lot of scoring here. "Under" the call.
08-10-23	Texans v. Patriots UNDER 37		20-9	Win	100	18 h 35 m	Show
Texans/Patriots 7:00: Two teams with great defensive minds leading the charge on the sidelines. Belichick is equipped with some solid young talent through the draft while Houston's Demarco Ryans is set with an already great secondary and some extraordinary edge rushers in #1 draft choice Will Anderson Jr. and a steal at #4 in Dylan Horton from TCU add to a respectable line. Can't see a lot of points here as both teams break in new offensive systems with new OCs. We'll stay "under".
06-12-23	Heat v. Nuggets OVER 208.5		89-94	Loss	-110	20 h 49 m	Show

06-09-23	Nuggets v. Heat OVER 211.5	Top	108-95	Loss	-110	2 h 51 m	Show

06-07-23	Nuggets v. Heat OVER 214.5		109-94	Loss	-110	45 h 33 m	Show

05-25-23	Heat v. Celtics OVER 215		97-110	Loss	-112	20 h 50 m	Show
Heat/Celtics 8:30: Heavy "over" trends for both teams in their respective situations. Heat have gone 'over' in 10 of their last 11 road games. They're also 17-5 O/U on 1 day of rest. Celtics 11-4 O/U last 15 overall, 4-0 O/U after a 10+ point win, and 12-3 O/U on 1 day of rest. This series is 5-0 O/U in Boston. "Over" it is!
05-21-23	Celtics v. Heat UNDER 214		102-128	Loss	-110	18 h 58 m	Show

05-20-23	Nuggets v. Lakers OVER 221.5		119-108	Win	100	19 h 18 m	Show
Nuggets/Lakers 8:30: Lakers should be a bit more comfortable back on their home court where they average 117 PPG. Anthony Davis roller coaster performance should continue after coming off a sluggish scoring game. And James most likely won't go 0 of 6 from downtown. Fortunately for the Lakers, Reeves and Hachimura have been fabulous in the playoffs. Walker IV, Schroder and Russell should play well. Denver's Jokic most likely won't be stopped and Murray is clearly back in top form. Lakers 15-5 O/U after scoring 100+ and 15-6 O/U after opponent scores 100+. Nuggets 5-1-1 O/U in last 7 road tilts. We'll look for a shootout here.
05-19-23	Heat v. Celtics OVER 215.5		111-105	Win	100	20 h 29 m	Show
Heat/Celtics 8:30: Good value with the "over" in what has been a 4-0 O/U series at TD Garden. Miami sports heavy "over" trends. They're 20-7 O/U in their last 27 games and 9-1 O/U in their last 10 road tilts and 17-4 O/U off a SU win. Boston, 9-3 O/U run, is 9-2 O/U after scoring 100+ and 7-2 O/U after allowing 100+. The Celtics have gone "over" in 9 of their last 12 Conference Finals games. Over the call.
05-05-23	Celtics v. 76ers UNDER 214.5		114-102	Loss	-110	19 h 60 m	Show
Celtics/76ers 7:30: These teams are a combined 7-23 O/U in Conference Semifinals games. Both are defensively stout and create turnovers and disciplined in taking away strength of opposition. The "under" is 1-4 O/U in the last 5 meetings. Still value with the "under".
04-30-23	Heat v. Knicks UNDER 208		108-101	Loss	-110	10 h 14 m	Show

04-23-23	Cavs v. Knicks UNDER 206.5		93-102	Win	100	10 h 15 m	Show

04-21-23	Cavs v. Knicks UNDER 211.5		79-99	Win	100	20 h 37 m	Show

04-19-23	Wolves v. Nuggets OVER 222		113-122	Win	100	4 h 60 m	Show

03-09-23	Villanova v. Creighton UNDER 134.5	Top	74-87	Loss	-110	6 h 45 m	Show

03-02-23	Michigan v. Illinois UNDER 144.5		87-91	Loss	-110	4 h 55 m	Show
Michigan/Illinois 7:00: Heavy "under" trends on both sides. Illinois ranks 334th in the nation from 3-point range at a paltry 31%; moreover, over their last 3 games, they've shot a measly 25.8% from downtown. Michigan is defensively solid, including guarding the perimeter - allowing 32.1%. On the other hand, Illinois is a strong defensive team and has held opponents to just 60.5 PPG on this floor this season. Illinois may be a #9 NCAA Tournament seed heading into this game while Michigan is on the bubble. Both teams need a win here to solidify an at large bid. Look for the defensive intensity to increase. We'll give the edge to Michigan in a lower scoring game. "Under" the call.
02-16-23	Wizards v. Wolves OVER 235		114-106	Loss	-110	20 h 14 m	Show
Wizards/Wolves 8:10: Heavy "over" trends on this one and it being the last game before the All-Star break gives us extra value. These teams are checking out defensively and we'll look for the "over" to hit.
02-15-23	Jazz v. Grizzlies OVER 238.5		111-117	Loss	-110	7 h 5 m	Show

02-15-23	Pistons v. Celtics OVER 223.5		109-127	Win	100	7 h 45 m	Show

02-09-23	Iowa v. Purdue OVER 149		73-87	Win	100	4 h 5 m	Show

01-30-23	Virginia v. Syracuse UNDER 132.5		67-62	Win	100	17 h 37 m	Show

01-14-23	Chargers v. Jaguars OVER 47		30-31	Win	100	18 h 23 m	Show
Chargers/Jaguars 8:15: Jaguars' offense is cooking under Lawrence and don't believe the Chargers' defense can slow them down here. At the same time, Herbert may be without matchup nightmare WR Williams (back) but he's an elite QB who makes good receivers even better. Palmer, Carter and TE Everett have elevated their game this season. And Ekeler and Keenan Allen are outstanding go-to weapons. Don't see Jaguars shutting them down like in Game 3. Staley 5-1 O/U w/ revenge. "Over" the call.
01-05-23	Maryland v. Rutgers UNDER 131.5		50-64	Win	100	19 h 30 m	Show
Maryland/Rutgers 6:30: Both of these teams are offensively challenged in the bottom tier of the NCAA in shooting. What separates these teams is Rutgers' strength on the offensive glass and their +4.7-turnover margin. Maryland is not a great rebounding team but not that opportunistic at -1 turnover margin. But both of these teams can flat out play defense. Rutgers a top tier defensive team that's even more stifling at home - allowing just 50.2 PPG. MD, which averages a paltry 61.3 PPG, is 11 points worse on the road. MD, which got pummeled in Michigan on January 1st, is 0-4 O/U off a SU loss of 20+. They're 0-4 O/U last 4 on road. Rutgers is 1-4 O/U vs a winning team above .600. This series has gone under three straight times. "Under" the call.
12-31-22	Iowa v. Kentucky UNDER 31		21-0	Win	100	11 h 43 m	Show
Iowa/Kentucky Noon: Two sluggish offenses but rock-solid defenses collide early. These offenses were pedestrian with their starting QBs Petras and Will Levis. Today, Iowa will have third stringer Joe Labas run the offense. Petras (shoulder surgery) is out and 2nd stringer Padilla went into the transfer portal. Kentucky's overrated QB Will Levis is opting out to prep for NFL. And the Wildcats' lead back - Chris Rodriquez (904 yards) also opted out for the NFL draft prep. These teams met January 1st, 2022 at full strength and slothed to a 20-17 Kentucky win. They ran the ball a combined 75 times! Today, more of the same with less athleticism offensively. Iowa's defense allows just 14.4 PPG. Kentucky's defense is a Top 20 unit. We won't fear the low set total. Points will be at a premium here with the lack of explosive plays. We'll stay under in a defensive battle.
12-30-22	Pittsburgh v. UCLA OVER 54		37-35	Win	100	13 h 11 m	Show
Analysis to follow...
12-27-22	East Carolina v. Coastal Carolina OVER 65		53-29	Win	100	16 h 15 m	Show
Coastal Carolina/ECU 6:45: Both of these teams have similar explosive offenses and similar yielding defenses. Both record setting QBs - McCall for CC and Ahlers for ECU - are playing. McCall is essentially showcasing his ability as he enters the transfer portal. Both defenses allow 412 YPG and around 30 PPG. CC will have their DC Staggs as their interim HC as Chadwell is off to Liberty. CC has one of their best players - LB Josiah Stewart - out. He's opted to go to Michigan. Look for a shootout here. These teams are a combined 9-1 O/U in December. CC is 10-4 O/U vs non-conference foes and ECU is 5-0 O/U after producing 450+ yards. "Over" it is.
12-25-22	Packers v. Dolphins OVER 49.5		26-20	Loss	-110	13 h 51 m	Show
Packers/Dolphins 1:00: Both teams still alive for a playoff spot. Look for fireworks on the offensive side. QB Rodgers is getting in rhythm with his young receivers, including Christian Watson. Miami defense has given up lots of yards through the air (lower tier of NFL) and points (nearly 25 ppg - 27th in NFL). On the other hand, Dolphins got their run game going last week with Mostert leading the way (136 yards). And GB defense has been vulnerable to the run (149 YPG - 29th in NFL). Effective running game will surely open the lanes for Waddle and Hill. GB has heavy "over" trends while Miami is on a 5-2 O/U run. "Over" the call.
12-24-22	Eagles v. Cowboys OVER 47	Top	34-40	Win	100	13 h 47 m	Show
Philadelphia/Dallas 4:25: This series has gone 'over' 4 straight and 5 of the last 7 in Dallas. Philadelphia offense shouldn't slow down with Minshew at the helm. He would most likely be a starting QB on at least 3 NFL teams this season. And he's got a lot of skill weaponry at his disposal, including TE Goedert back for this one. Cowboys have injuries on the back end of their defense, and with Dallas LB Vander Esch out, Eagles run game won't miss a beat with arguably the best offensive line in the league leading the way. Cowboys' run stop unit 24th in the league vulnerable. On the other hand, Eagles only soft spot is their run stop unit. They're in the lower echelon of the league stopping the run (19th). And Dallas can run the football when they're devoted to it. With heavy "over" trends for these teams in December, we'll go "over" here.
12-22-22	Jaguars v. Jets OVER 36.5		19-3	Loss	-110	8 h 31 m	Show
Jaguars/Jets 8:15: This series has gone "over" 5 straight and "over" in 5 of the last 6 overall. I projected about a 39 or 40 'total' for tonight based on the inclement weather, defensive prowess of the Jets, and lack of offense by the Jets. Therefore, a few points of value with the "over" here. Both teams have had turnover issues - which leads to sudden change points. Jaguars have cleaned their turnovers up over their winning streak as Lawrence has been razor sharp as the offense is humming. Jets' offense stuck in neutral with Wilson at QB but did gut the Jaguars last year on the ground with 273 yards rushing en route to 26-21 win on this field. Jax is 8-1 O/U in their last 9 road games and 4-0 O/U in their last 4 overall. They're also 5-0 O/U in December. We'll go "over".
12-11-22	Panthers v. Seahawks OVER 44.5		30-24	Win	100	17 h 55 m	Show
Panthers/Seahawks 4:25: Going into this season, Seahawks' Carroll was 2-10 O/U as a favorite vs a less than .500 foe. That trend has flipped this year as the Seahawks are 3-0 O/U as chalk vs losing teams. Seahawks' defense in mid-October through mid-November actually did well keeping teams out of the end zone. Over the last few weeks, however, they're giving up chunks of yards on the ground resulting in scoring drives. Carolina has a good one in D'Onta Foreman (4.5 YPC). Good possibility he'll help open the pass game for resurging QB Darnold who showed promise last week vs a very good Denver defense. On the other hand, Seahawks' #9 ranked offense is finding the end zone this season. RB depth is questionable Geno Smith still has the explosive receiving weaponry to torch secondaries and Carolina's is a middle of the road one, if that. This series has gone 6-0 O/U in its last 6 meetings and 6-0 O/U in Seattle. Panthers are 5-0 O/U last 5 road vs teams with winning home records. "Over" it is.
12-11-22	Vikings v. Lions OVER 51	Top	23-34	Win	100	13 h 33 m	Show
Minnesota/Detroit 1:00: Both of these teams have heavy "over" trends. And this series has gone 4-1 O/U in its last 5 meetings and 4-1 O/U in Detroit. Lions on a 10-4 O/U overall run. Not a surprise considering their defense allows 27 PPG (last in the league). But Goff and company have been machine-like this season averaging 26.3 PPG. OC Ben Johnson has done an outstanding job working with Goff and the offense. They should be able to frequent the end zone against the worst pass defense in the NFL that allows 283.6 YPG. We'll go "over" here.
12-09-22	Kings v. Cavs UNDER 222.5		106-95	Win	100	5 h 39 m	Show
Sacramento/Cleveland 7:40: This series is 1-5 O/U in its last 5, including 0-2 O/U at Cleveland. Surely, Donovan Mitchell adds a new offensive dimension to the Cavaliers this season, but he fits in schematically defensively. Cavaliers the #1 defensive team in the NBA allowing 104.9 PPG. Sacramento, on the other hand, is the #2 offensive team in the NBA led by De'aaron Fox. Kings lose ground defensively (allow 116 PPG), however, but defensive minded Brown constantly reinforces defensive technique. Kings are 1-5 O/U on the road vs teams with winning records. Cavs on an 0-6 O/U run and 0-6 O/U after opponent scores 100+. We'll stay under here.
12-08-22	Raiders v. Rams UNDER 43.5		16-17	Win	100	18 h 2 m	Show
Raiders/Rams 8:15: This series is 1-4 O/U. Rams are 8-17 O/U in last 25 home games. McVay 2-9 O/U at home off SU/ATS loss. We'll stay "under".
11-27-22	Bengals v. Titans OVER 42		20-16	Loss	-110	12 h 40 m	Show
Bengals/Titans 1:00: Both of these offenses have gotten into rhythm. Joe Burrow has been on fire over the last few games as the Bengals dropped 42 and 37 on the Panthers and the Steelers, respectively. Meanwhile, Tannehill has been sharp over the last few games as well. Bengals' defense is yielding. Titans are 12-5-1 O/U after accumulating 250+ passing yards previously, and they're 11-5 O/U in November; moreover. Titans are 10-0 O/U at home vs .600 or less non division opponent. Bengals 7-1-1 O/U after scoring 30+. "Over" the call.
11-24-22	Patriots v. Vikings UNDER 42.5		26-33	Loss	-110	18 h 29 m	Show
Patriots/Vikings 8:20: Both of these teams have had their share of problems converting in the red zone. For the Patriots, with Josh McDaniels no longer coordinating the offense, they're reaching the goal line a poor 42.86% of the time - 31st in NFL just below the Broncos. And over the last 3 weeks, Vikings converting in the red zone just 33.3% of the time. Patriots' defense remains solid against non-running QBs and we're most likely seeing more FG attempts instead of end zone dancing. Pats 3-14 O/U after scoring less than 15 points and 2-7 O/U in November. This series has gone 1-5 O/U in its last 6 meetings, and we'll stay "under" here.
11-13-22	Lions v. Bears OVER 48.5		31-30	Win	100	13 h 53 m	Show
Analysis to follow...
11-06-22	Panthers v. Bengals OVER 42.5	Top	21-42	Win	100	13 h 56 m	Show
Panthers/Bengals 1:00: Both secondaries have thinned out with injuries. Carolina has S Burris (concussion) out and C Donte Jackson laboring with a sprained ankle. Bengals' QB Burrow should bounce back strong today despite the loss of Chase (hip). He still has Boyd, Higgins, TE Hurst and RB Mixon to go to. Bengals' ground game not good but could start cooking today vs the mediocre run-stop-unit of Panthers (23rd). On the other hand, Carolina will stay with P.J. Walker as their QB. And they should! He's in rhythm with receivers and putting points on the board; moreover, RB D'onta Foreman filling the RB void for McCaffrey (SF). He's running the rock hard and opening up the passing game. Bengals' secondary thinning with Awuzie (knee), Flowers (hamstring), Hilton (finger) all laboring. And the run stop unit of Cincy leaves much to be desired (21st). We got about 3 points of value with this total and I'm going "over".
10-30-22	Broncos v. Jaguars UNDER 40.5		21-17	Win	100	1 h 56 m	Show

10-24-22	Bears v. Patriots UNDER 40.5		33-14	Loss	-110	19 h 3 m	Show
Bears/Patriots 8:15: Both of these teams have been turnover laden this season (combined 21 turnovers between them). And defensively, they are both opportunistic with a combined 17. The sloppy and cold Foxborough should dictate a ball control offensive attack with few, if any, explosive plays. And Fields has Mooney as his only vertical threat. Surely, Belichick will see to it that he's locked down. Patriots an amazing 1-13 O/U as a non-conference favorite of more than 1 point. Bears 1-10 O/U vs non-conference opponent with line >40 points. "Under" the call.
10-23-22	Jets v. Broncos UNDER 37		16-9	Win	100	15 h 9 m	Show
Jets/Broncos 4:05: Both teams bring top tier defenses to the field that play hard and create turnovers. It just so happens that the Jets' offense is turnover prone (9) and the Broncos' offense is stuck in neutral (32nd in scoring points). QB Brett Rypien will start in place of the injured Russell Wilson; consequently, Saleh and the Jets are salivating. Jets are 1-8 O/U off a SU win of 14+, and they're 5-11 O/U after allowing less than 15 points. Broncos on a 1-5 O/U run and 3-7 O/U off a SU loss. This series has gone 1-4 O/U in Denver including the last 3. "Under" the call.
10-07-22	Houston v. Memphis OVER 57		33-32	Win	100	25 h 59 m	Show
Houston/Memphis 7:30: Both of these teams showing signs of regression. For Memphis, they've gradually leveled off in the win column since Mike Norvell left after the 2019 season. Silverfield stepped in the defense went south along with the wins. Houston, which was a pre-season pick to win the American Athletic, has played in 3 straight OT games, losing two. Penalties and sloppy plays late have been led to major sideline blowups by HC Holgorsen. Fortunately for both teams, their offenses are productive. Defensively, however, has been ugly. Memphis allows 288 ypg through the air, which is 133rd in the nation. Last year, Houston ran all over them controlling the clock by +9 minutes. Sure, Temple was held to 3 points last week; however, Owls are 122nd in offensive production and average a paltry 15 PPG this season. As for Houston, their defense leaves a lot to be desired. They allow a whopping 34 PPG (117th nationally). Memphis QB Henigan can sling it and should have a big day. Tigers are 4-1 O/U in last 5 home games. This series is 4-1 O/U in its last 5. "Over" the call.
10-02-22	Browns v. Falcons OVER 47.5		20-23	Loss	-110	11 h 57 m	Show
Browns/Falcons 1:00: These teams are a combined 6-0 O/U this season. We won't fear the higher than normal 'total' for this series and go "over". Falcons' defense most likely won't have an answer to stop the #1 rush offense in the NFL. And Atlanta's secondary leaves a lot to be desired; consequently, efficient pass Brissett should be able to guide the Browns' offense in the end zone often. The Falcons have given up a generous 27 PPG but they have 7 takeaways - which translate into points. On the other hand, Browns' defense missing key bookends - Garrett and Clowney. That's significant for giving Mariota a second more in the pocket to hook up with his array of weapons including Drake London, Patterson and Pitts. Browns' defense has been yielding - allowing 24 PPG. These teams are collectively 13-5 O/U in Week 4. "Over" it is!
09-22-22	West Virginia v. Virginia Tech UNDER 50.5		33-10	Win	100	5 h 20 m	Show
West Virginia/Virginia Tech 7:30: Blacksburg is a tough place to play for a visiting team. Hokies' defensive minded HC Brent Pry wants to win with tough defense, establishing an effective run game and limiting turnovers. His defense has been solid thus far but not opportunistic (1 takeaway). And Pry will take a conservative approach with his QB Wells (22 INTs/22 TDs in career) to carry out his game plan. On the other hand, WV QB J.T. Daniels is a more accomplished QB with great poise in the pocket. But WV at their best when run game is cooking. So far, Tech run stop unit is outstanding - allowing 40.7 YPG (5th nationally). Hokies 0-7 O/U in September football and this series is 1-5-1 O/U in its last 7 meetings. We'll stay "under".
08-27-22	Northwestern v. Nebraska UNDER 52		31-28	Loss	-110	10 h 30 m	Show
Northwestern/Nebraska 12:30 pm: Both of these teams' offenses I expect to be stuck in neutral in the early going. Northwestern was one of the lowest scoring teams in the nation last season and 3rd worst Red Zone offense behind U Mass. This year, still uncertainty at QB but it looks like former South Carolina QB Hilinski will get the nod. Look for NW to rely on run game behind a few dudes, including possible NFL first rounder - OT Skowronski. NW has scored 30+ in just 2 games vs Power 5 conference teams under OC Bajackian. Nebraska, on the other hand, parted ways with QB Martinez and will look for Texas transfer Casey Thompson to guide the offense. We'll look for growing pains early with new OC Mark Whipple who was with Pittsburgh last year. Of course, he had QB Pickett and WR Jordan Allison to light up the scoreboard. He doesn't quite have that kind of talent to work with yet. These teams are playing on a grass field in Ireland for the first time ever. They're a combined 1-8 O/U in their last 9 on grass. "Under" the call.
08-26-22	Patriots v. Raiders UNDER 37.5		6-23	Win	100	19 h 5 m	Show
Patriots/Raiders 8:15: Patriots' offense stuck in neutral without McDaniels on their sideline calling the shots. On the other hand, Belichick knows his former OC and what he runs like the back of his hand, And the Patriots' defensive front getting it done - winning battles on the line-of-scrimmage. We'll look for a slugfest here in a low scoring game with limited, if any, explosive plays.
08-14-22	Vikings v. Raiders OVER 36.5		20-26	Win	100	14 h 45 m	Show
Vikings/Raiders 4:25: Two offensive minded head coaches in O'Connell and McDaniels seem to have their offenses a bit further along than their defenses. Minnesota will use more 11 personnel (one RB, one TE, 4 receivers) under O'Connell. Raiders' defense under new DC Graham is more complex than it was under Gus Bradley. There are multiple different packages to install and the Raiders currently are a bit banged up on that side of the ball early. Sure, Cousins (Covid 19) won't play, but Kellen Mond and veteran Sean Mannion have multiple skill weapons at their disposal. As for the Vikings, they too have a new defensive philosophy with a bunch of talented but young secondary personnel. These guys only been together for 3 weeks and there could easily be confusion. This series is 3-0-2 O/U. We'll give the offenses the green light here and see this one go "over".
08-06-22	Yankees v. Cardinals OVER 8.5		0-1	Loss	-114	4 h 6 m	Show
German/Montgomery 7:15: Maybe a pitcher-friendly park but both teams set for blast off tonight. Cardinals will put newly acquired Montgomery on the mound to face his former team. Montgomery struggled in his last 2 starts for the Yankees. He allowed 8 runs in 6 1/3 innings. Yankees are 3-0-1 O/U in last 4 vs lefty starters. Aaron Judge is on fire (.404 BA, 10 HRs, 23 RBI) since All-Star break. Yankees counter with struggling Domingo German (6.39 ERA/1.82 WHIP) and NY should go to bullpen early; after all, German averages about 4.1 IPG in limited action as a starter. He's facing a formidable Cardinals' lineup currently led by Goldschmidt and Arenado. Cardinals are 7-1 O/U in last 8 at home vs teams with winning records. And they're 20-8 O/U in their last 28 vs AL East. "Over" the call.
07-30-22	Twins v. Padres OVER 7.5		7-4	Win	100	5 h 22 m	Show
Twins/Padres 7:15: Padres finally broke out of their power slump last night by launching 5 HRs off respectable Joe Ryan. Padres on a 5-4-1 O/U run. We'll look for the momentum to carry over against Sonny Gray who doesn't do his best work at night (4.70 ERA). Padres counter with fan favorite Joe Musgrove. Musgrove started the season virtually unhittable but has given up 9 ER on 14 hits over his last 10 1/3 innings. And he's 0-2 with a lofty 9.72 ERA vs Minnesota. Twins are 6-0 O/U in interleague road vs teams above .500. Padres now 4-0-1 O/U in last 5 when 'total' set between 7 to 8'. Shift in run momentum gives us an "over" play here.
07-24-22	Padres v. Mets UNDER 8		5-8	Loss	-114	7 h 16 m	Show
Padres/Mets 7:08: Analysis to follow...
07-21-22	Giants v. Dodgers UNDER 8		6-9	Loss	-120	7 h 22 m	Show
Giants/Dodgers 10:09: Heavy "under" trends coupled with two solid pitchers in their respective roles while in a pitchers' park gives us an "under" play. Dodgers on a 6-13-3 O/U run and 14-33-4 O/U in Game 1 of a series. Giants 1-7-1 O/U in Game 1 of a series. Carolos Rodon is 1-5 O/U vs teams above .500. This series is 1-4-1 O/U in its last 6 matchups. Rodon and All-Star and consistent in allowing 2 runs or less. Mitch White, on the other hand, a pretty good righty when at home. Won't last long but has the backing of a solid bullpen. And the shuffling of the Giants lineup without SS Crawford (IL) and 3B Longoria (IL) gives way for inconsistency at plate for SF. "Under" the call.
06-16-22	Warriors v. Celtics OVER 210		103-90	Loss	-110	20 h 46 m	Show
Warriors/Celtics 9:00: Two well-disciplined top 3 defenses been clamping down and the refs have been letting them play; as a result, the 'under' is popping. Tonight, got a line (210) that's dropped in our range and we're going "over". This is the lowest total in this series over the past decade! We'll look for better shooting by Boston and Curry, who rarely has back-to-back bad games, should significantly add to the total. Interesting side bit: Warriors and the Celtics on Thursday are a combined 15-1-1 O/U. "Over" it is.
06-10-22	Warriors v. Celtics UNDER 214.5		107-97	Win	100	20 h 41 m	Show
Warriors/Celtics 9:00: This series has been softly called by the referees relative to other playoff series. The refs are letting them play. Both teams are defensively stout and make good adjustments. Warriors are 2-6 O/U off a SU loss, 1-4 O/U in their last 5 dog roles, and 1-4 O/U off a SU loss of 10+. This series is 4-12 O/U and 3-7 O/U in Boston. "Under" the call.
06-05-22	Celtics v. Warriors UNDER 215.5		88-107	Win	100	18 h 38 m	Show

05-29-22	Celtics v. Heat OVER 195.5		100-96	Win	100	19 h 20 m	Show
Celtics/Heat 8:30: These teams are very good defensively, but series sports an 11-5 O/U ledger. This total has been dropped down sharply and we're going "over". Celtics 8-3-1 O/U as road chalk. And Heat 8-2 O/U in Conference Finals. "Over" the call.
05-21-22	Heat v. Celtics OVER 207.5		109-103	Win	100	19 h 33 m	Show

05-17-22	Celtics v. Heat OVER 203.5		107-118	Win	100	19 h 22 m	Show
Celtics/Heat 8:45: The total for this series is set at its lowest in years. This series has gone 7-3 O/U in its last 10 meetings. Miami had just two poor playoff shooting performances in its last 10 post-season games. They've eclipsed 100 in 8 of last 10. As for Boston, they just had 1 poor playoff scoring performance - May 1st at home vs Milwaukee - in their last 10 playoff outings. Both teams are shooting well and have electric big game players - Tatum for Boston and Butler for Miami - who are stepping up their game and getting the needed bench help. Their defenses are solid but their offensive execution a bit better. These teams are a combined 8-0 O/U in Conference Final games and we're staying "over".
05-11-22	Bucks v. Celtics UNDER 214.5		110-107	Loss	-110	18 h 58 m	Show
Bucks/Celtics 7:00: In this playoff series at Boston, both games did not reach 200 points; as a matter of fact, 5 of the last 7 in this series at Boston went "under". Both coaching staffs are well versed on defense and know their roles despite the lineup changes. "Under' the call.
05-10-22	Mavs v. Suns OVER 213		80-110	Loss	-110	21 h 18 m	Show
Mavericks/Suns 10:00: Both home games for the Suns in this series went "over". In Dallas, both went "under". We'll go back to the "over" here. Lines-makers adjusted the total down after those two lower scoring games in Dallas. Look for the Suns to turn it up a notch or two tonight. Unlikely Chris Paul will foul out with just 5 points like Game 4. Suns are 11-3 O/U as playoff chalk. Mavs should match the pace. Mavericks 7-2 O/U road and 4-1 O/U as a road dog. "Over" the call.
05-03-22	Warriors v. Grizzlies UNDER 227.5		101-106	Win	100	20 h 54 m	Show
Analysis to follow...
03-26-22	Houston v. Villanova UNDER 128.5		44-50	Win	100	15 h 46 m	Show
Houston/Villanova 6:09: Cougars showed why they're the #1 FG% defense in the nation vs Arizona. And Villanova is not as good of a shooting team as Arizona. Cougars now 1-4 O/U in their last 5 as an NCAA Tournament favorite. And they're 2-7 O/U overall. 'Cats 1-5 O/U in their last 6 and 1-7 O/U on a neutral floor. Both teams well-orchestrated defensively and we'll stay "under".
03-18-22	TCU v. Seton Hall UNDER 129		69-42	Win	100	20 h 29 m	Show
TCU/Seton Hall 9:57: Both teams are defensively stout but offensively challenged. TCU 4-10 O/U on a neutral floor while Pirates 1-5 O/U neutral. Value with the "under" here.
02-15-22	Hornets v. Wolves UNDER 244.5		120-126	Loss	-110	1 h 60 m	Show

01-30-22	49ers v. Rams UNDER 46		17-20	Win	100	16 h 5 m	Show
49ers/Rams 6:40: Defense should take precedence today with relatively healthy defensive bodies across the board. 49ers' defense and special teams playing at an elite level while the Rams' defense finally living up to its potential. SF 1-7 O/U last 8 playoff games and 0-4 O/U as a playoff dog. Rams 4-17 O/U as a home favorite. "Under" the call.
01-21-22	Toledo v. Ohio OVER 146.5		87-69	Win	100	19 h 7 m	Show
Toledo/Ohio 6:00: Both of these teams can light up the scoreboard and this game should continue to be high scoring in the series; after all, the last 3 sported totals of 157, 173 and 167, respectively. Rockets are 10-3 O/U on the road vs a team with a home winning % above .600. Bobcats 19-7 O/U in their last 26 at home vs teams with a road wining % above .600. We'll go "over"
01-15-22	Patriots v. Bills UNDER 44		17-47	Loss	-107	17 h 42 m	Show
Patriots/Bills 8:15: Frigid temperatures (2 degrees/14 MPH winds) should turn this game into a ball control defensive battle similar to the December 6th slugfest. Patriots 2-8 O/U as a dog and 1-4 O/U on road as a dog. This series has gone 1-4 O/U in Buffalo. Buffalo 2-5 O/U as a home favorite. We'll look for this one to stay "under".
01-08-22	Chiefs v. Broncos UNDER 45		28-24	Loss	-108	20 h 30 m	Show
Chiefs/Broncos 4:30: I hit with the "under" on December 5th in this series at KC. Today, we'll stay "under" again. Line value added to "under" with both teams coming off poor defensive performances. For the Broncos, they gave up a rare 101-yard kickoff return and a 45 yard TD pass to Mike Williams. That's rare for a Vic Fangio coached program against a division rival. Meanwhile, KC got smoked by the speedy receivers of Cincinnati despite tight coverage. Today, KC secondary matches much better against the Denver receiving corps and surely Drew Lock is no Joe Burrow. Denver defense will have some tough sledding without CB Patrick Surtain II (out); nevertheless, Denver defense gives but is tough to break (#3 scoring defense). Fangio most likely will sit in a Cover 2 shell and force KC to run the football with Edwards-Helaire still out. Broncos are 0-6 O/U after allowing 30+ points and 1-5 O/U in their last 6 dog roles. Moreover, they're 5-20 O/U when the O/U line is set at 45 or over. With Fangio at 0-6 O/U w/ revenge vs division, "Under" is the call.
01-02-22	Giants v. Bears UNDER 36.5		3-29	Win	100	11 h 60 m	Show
Giants/Bears 1:00: Two offenses ranking in the bottom tier of the league with backup QBs. Dalton should get the start for the Bears. While the Giants will share time with either Fromm or Glennon. If that's not ugly enough, Toney and Slayton are out, their starting center (Price) is out, and Freddie Kitchens is once again calling the plays. No wonder RB Barkley (ankle) may want to sit this one out. With both defenses respectable and keeping them in games, scoring will be at a premium. And throw in the 28 degree weather with high winds and the low set total doesn't look that low after all. Bears 1-6 O/U in their last 7 home favorite roles and the Giants are 6-19 O/U run. "Under" the call.
01-01-22	Kentucky v. Iowa UNDER 44		20-17	Win	100	9 h 20 m	Show
Iowa/Kentucky 1:00: Expect old school football with teams that like to pound the football and play great defense. Iowa offense not potent (123rd in the nation) and should be even less potent today without their 1100+ rusher Tyler Goodson who opted out (NFL prep). Iowa's QBs' Petras or Padilla don't strike fear in defenses. And Kentucky is solid defensively. Iowa counts on their defense to set them up in field position; after all, they're #1 in forcing turnovers and Kentucky is prone to turnovers. The Wildcats do, however, run the ball well. They have a 1200+ rusher in Rodriguez and an 1100+ receiver in Wan' Dale Robinson. Their other two receivers opted out. Iowa is 14th in the nation in scoring defense and rarely gives up explosive plays. We'll look for a ground and pound clock eating game with limited scoring. "Under" the call.
12-31-21	Central Michigan v. Washington State OVER 57		24-21	Loss	-110	13 h 39 m	Show
Central Michigan/Washington State Noon: Both teams present explosive offenses. Now Washington State will not have its top 2 running backs (Borghi and McIntosh) and their starting tackles; however, they've shuffled their line throughout the season and managed to put points on the board. In this instance, they face a poor secondary of Central Michigan. The Chippewas are aggressive in their blitz schemes (3.1 sacks per game) but give up explosive plays. Washington State has skill players Jordan (801 yards/9 TDs) and Harris (955 yards/7 TDs) that can torch the CM secondary. QB De Laura can sling it (23 TD/9 INTs/ 64%). And RB Nakia Watson gets his opportunity to showcase his running skills. On the other hand, CM has an explosive offense that Washington State will have trouble with. RB Lew Nicholls III ran for 1710 yards and 15 TDs and can catch the ball out of the backfield. QB Richardson has a wealth of athletes including vertical threat Pimpleton. And Washington State won't have its starting corners including Jaylen Watson (opted out NFL). Washington State 4-0 O/U as chalk, CM 10-3 O/U as a dog and 7-3 O/U vs non-conference. "Over" the call.
12-29-21	Iowa State v. Clemson UNDER 44.5		13-20	Win	100	16 h 16 m	Show
Iowa State/Clemson 5:45: A matchup that looks to be lower scoring. Clemson, which never got its offense in rhythm under QB Uiagalelei (9 TD/8 INT 54.7% completions), most likely will struggle vs a the Top 10 Iowa State defense. Cyclones play 3-3-5 presents problems to most teams. They limit explosive plays and can create havoc on QBs with DE Will McDonald IV (11' sacks) leading the way. Moreover, Clemson limited in vertical threats now that E.J. Williams (Covid) and Ross (foot) are out. They do have RB Shipley (true freshman) who came on strong to establish a run game for the Tigers mid-season. They look to lean on him tonight. On the other hand, Iowa State's All-American RB Breece Hall opted out to prepare for the NFL draft and that's a big loss. He was the fuel to the Iowa State offense and QB Brock Purdy leaned on him heavily. Now Clemson's ball hawking secondary can keep their focus on TE Kolar and WR Hutchinson. Technically, Clemson is 1-7 O/U in December, 0-6 O/U vs the Big12 while Iowa State is 0-8 O/U in bowls. "Under" the call.
12-28-21	Louisville v. Air Force OVER 54.5		28-31	Win	100	20 h 53 m	Show
Air Force/Louisville 3:15: Thought this 'total' would be a bit higher considering the contrasting offenses that are explosive and difficult to prepare for. Cardinals possess one of the most versatile QBs in the game in Malik Cunningham who has multiple weapons to go to. Air Force defense is very good but this is surely the best they've faced all season. On the other hand, Cardinals will face the vaunted Air Force triple option which is difficult to prepare for. Louisville hasn't been a good run stopping unit this season and just got pounded by a Kentucky team in their last game of the season. Louisville is 5-2 O/U after allowing 200+ yards rushing, and they're 6-2 O/U in non-conference play. AF is 4-1 O/U as a bowl dog. "Over" the call.
12-27-21	Dolphins v. Saints UNDER 37		20-3	Win	100	20 h 22 m	Show
Dolphins/Saints 8:15: This 'total' opened at 40 but whittled down to 37. Still value with the "under". Saints hit hard by Covid and down to their 4th team QB Ian Book. This will be his first appearance, let alone start, in an NFL regular season game. Sean Payton will surely not put him in a role to air it out regularly, especially without his starting T Ramczyk (covid) out; instead, Payton will have him lean on his supporting skill cast including versatile Kamara as a key check down option. Should be tough to get the vertical pass game going with limited vertical weapons, thin offensive line and the ball hawking secondary of Miami. On the other hand, New Orleans' defense (#4 in points allowed) will again need to step up their game like they did vs TB and Brady. Despite some thinning in the secondary, they can get it done vs a mediocre Miami offense (24th total yards). Dolphins 2-5 O/U as road favorite while the Saints are 4-12 O/U off back-to-back SU wins, and they're 2-9 O/U after allowing less than 15 points. "Under" the call.
12-19-21	Bengals v. Broncos UNDER 45	Top	15-10	Win	100	13 h 19 m	Show
Bengals/Broncos 4:05: This series has gone 1-3 O/U in its last 4 meetings. Denver is a team with a middle of the road offense (#20 scoring) with a well-disciplined defense (#2 scoring defense). Consequently, Denver on a 1-6 O/U run. We'll ride that here. Bengals' offensive line has issues which don't allow Burrow and Mixon to do what they're capable of doing. The Bengals' defense, however, capable of holding their own here. Bengals are 1-4 O/U off a SU loss and 5-14-2 O/U as a road dog. Denver is 4-20 O/U when the OU line is 45 or more. "Under" the call.

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