Sports Picks & Predictions

*3 Star play Under* The San Francisco 49ers have a very good offense. The Detroit Lions offense is good as well. I still think this total is set a little too high.

The 49ers will have Deebo Samuel in this game, but he isn't 100 percent. He's a game changer and him at less than 100 percent is a clear negative. The Lions defense has been top five in stopping the run all season. The 49ers run at the third highest rate of any team in the NFL. Hutchinson and the Lions defensive line should be able to get in the backfield some when the 49ers pass it as well.

The 49ers defense is really good. Jared Goff is a good quarterback, but his inconsistency away from home makes me wonder how good he can be in this spot. The 49ers are third in the NFL in points allowed. San Francisco's offense often gets talked about far more, but the defense has been fantastic consistently this season. 

A total in the low 50's with teams who don't play that fast and with so much on the line- I think it is a bit too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Detroit Lions have been a great over team at home throughout the course of the season. Detroit's Jared Goff has some tremendous weapons around him. St. Brown is one of the most underrated wide receivers in the NFL. LaPorta is trying to work back from an injury. If he plays it is a nice bonus. The Lions likely try to throw it quite a bit here, which I think helps the over.

Baker Mayfield has been good in this Tampa Bay offense. Mike Evans is a big play receiver, and the Lions will have trouble defending him. Detroit's defense was fortunate to not give up more points last week. I'm not convinced they will always be able to bend without breaking in the red zone. 

Overs in the playoffs in dome games have cashed at a 64.7% clip in the NFL in the past 15 years. The fast track should be great for these offenses.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Cowboys* The Dallas Cowboys were fantastic at home this year. Dallas has won 16 games in a row at home. Many of those games have been blowouts. 

Green Bay has some good things going on, but they are far behind Dallas. Green Bay is a really young team. The Packers are also very banged up. Jaire Alexander is a game time decision and Christian Watson is questionable too. AJ Dillon is expected out for this one. Alexander being banged up even if he does play is a huge negative against a great Dallas passing attack.

The Packers defense has been torched by some bad offenses this year. We can't just remember the past week (where they did play well against the Bears). This Green Bay defense is weak against the run and Alexander is their star in the secondary. 

Prescott and Lamb and company should be far too much for the Green Bay defense. Jordan Love and the Packers offense can likely move the ball and score some here, but Dallas should have way too many weapons for Green Bay to trade scores.

Take Dallas. 

*4 Star Play Under* I see the Kansas City Chiefs as a straight under team in their current form. Kansas City's offense has no longer been explosive at all. The wide receivers are just too big of a liability. Travis Kelce is still good, but he isn't quite as good as he was a few years ago. 

Miami's offense was amazing against the weaker teams this year, but they weren't consistently great against good defenses. The Chiefs defense is very solid.

The first matchup between these two in Germany was 21-14. This game will be played outdoors in some brutal weather conditions. A temperature of around zero degrees during the game with wind chills dropping to 20 or 25 degrees below zero. The key is the wind. In these conditions I think the play calling will be a bit more conservative. 

The Chiefs have played five straight games under this number. Three of Miami's last four games have stayed under this total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Giants* The New York Giants have been playing much better football of late. Tyrod Taylor isn't a star, but he is a quality quarterback who tends to make enough plays to keep his team in the game. The Giants played the Eagles tightly two weeks ago and then lost by just a point and covered against the Rams.

The Philadelphia Eagles are in a highly questionable motivation spot here. The Eagles need Dallas to lose to the Commanders in a game where Dallas is a massive favorite. If Dallas is winning in that game, I think there is a real chance the Eagles will start resting players in the second half of this game. The Eagles have really fallen off badly of late, and competing hard until the end of this one likely means less than staying healthy and getting ready for the playoffs.

I think the situational spot is a strong one for the Giants. This should be a tight game and I'm happy to take this many points.

Take New York. 

*3 Star Play on Patriots* The New England Patriots have been playing hard in these games late in the season. I expect them to put in effort again here.

This could be the final game in New England for Bill Belichick and I do think the players want to send him out with a win if it is. New England has two outright upsets in their last four games, and they won the box score against the Bills in a strong effort last week. They have covered four straight games.

The New York Jets defense is worn out and banged up. The Jets offense puts them in such bad situations, and we can expect more of those woes again this week. New York struggled badly against the Pats defense earlier this year. I expect the same here.

Bailey Zappe has shown he can help move the Patriots better here late in the season.

I like the spot situationally.

Take New England. 

*3 Star Play on Titans* The Tennessee Titans will start Ryan Tannehill at quarterback here. It is likely his last game as a Titan. Tannehill talked during the week about how special it would be for him to finish his time as a Titan with a win. The Titans have shown time and time again that they are able to get up for these games with Mike Vrabel as their coach. Vrabel is 24-14-2 ATS as an underdog of 3 points or more.

Yes, the Jaguars need to win this game. No, that doesn't mean that will necessarily happen. In fact, teams needing a win and facing an eliminated team in the final two weeks of the NFL season are just 39% ATS. 

Trevor Lawrence is far less than 100%, and the Jaguars have plenty of clear weaknesses. The Jags defense has been very inconsistent this year.

DeAndre Hopkins has some key incentives to try to reach here. Derrick Henry has a good history against Jacksonville.

I'll grab the points.

Take Tennessee. 

*3 Star NFL ATS Play of the Week* The Cincinnati Bengals play hard for Zac Taylor, and Jake Browning has done a good job overall as the backup quarterback, but they are up against it here.

Kansas City is coming off a rare horrible performance from this past weekend in their loss to Las Vegas. The Chiefs are in a great bounce back spot. Kansas City has a top six or eight defense in the NFL. 

The Bengals defense ranks bottom three in the NFL in most major categories. Cincinnati has been giving up far too many big plays in the passing game. I think Mahomes and the Chiefs offense will be able to right the ship in this spot. 

Cincinnati is still badly shorthanded. Chase will either play and be less than 100% or he will miss the game. DJ Reader is a huge loss for the Bengals defense. There is a lot more film on Browning now and I think he will continue to come back down to earth. 

Take Kansas City. 

*3 Star Play Over* 

The LA Rams offense has been on fire of late. The Rams are second in the NFL in yards per play in their last three games at 6.2 yards per play. Los Angeles has scored 28 points or more in five straight games. They have scored 30 points or more in four of those five games. 

The Giants defense is a below average unit. It is hard to see this Giants secondary slowing down Stafford and the Rams good receivers in the passing game.

New York's offense hasn't been great, but it has improved of late. They are averaging 4.9 yards per play in their last three games. The Rams defense has been giving up a lot of points late in recent games after they have a lead. New York should get chances to score later in the game even if they aren't efficient early on.

Five Rams games in a row have finished with 48 points or more. I think this total is set too low.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play on Cowboys* The Dallas Cowboys have been dominant at home. Dallas is 7-0 at home this season. The Detroit Lions have been questionable on the road, and they are coming off clinching the divisional crown. 

Dak Prescott and the Dallas offense are going against a Lions defense that simply isn't very good. Prescott has 20 TD's and 2 INT's at home. The Lions are a bottom six or eight pass defense in the NFL. The Cowboys have  the star receivers to take advantage of the secondary weakness for Detroit.

Dallas is coming off a close loss to Miami where they played pretty well. This is a circle the wagons spot for them and it is a sell high spot on Detroit.

Take Dallas. 

*3 Star Play on Browns* The Cleveland Browns will host the New York Jets on Thursday night. Cleveland is playing very good football right now. The Browns downfield passing game is much better with Joe Flacco than it was with any of the other quarterbacks they have had earlier in the season.

The Cleveland defense has been absolutely shut down material at home. Opponents are only averaging 3.5 yards per play against the Browns in Cleveland. No other team in the NFL is allowing less than 4.4 YPP at home. 

The Jets have turned to Trevor Siemian at quarterback. Even though they scored 30 points against Washington, the offense wasn't very good. They averaged only 4.5 YPP. The game before the Jets averaged a miserable 1.9 YPP with him at quarterback. I don't expect them to have success in Cleveland against the Browns elite defense.

Thursday night favorites from game 11 on through the end of the NFL season have hit 61% ATS (77-49-1 ATS). I like the home favorite here.

This line has shifted a bit during the week- I would play this as high as -8.

Take Cleveland. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Cleveland Browns defense has been amazing at home this year. The Browns defense has been mediocre on the road. Cleveland is allowing just 3.5 yards per play at home. They are giving up 5.9 yards per play on the road. 

Houston does have a backup quarterback here in Case Keenum, but with another week under his belt it should help at least some. Nico Collins is back at practice Thursday which is a positive development too.

The Cleveland offense has been much improved with Joe Flacco at quarterback. Their pass rate has gone up a bunch too. Cleveland's offense is taking more shots down the field, and that is a positive development for over bettors in my opinion. Cleveland has a solid 5.2 yards per play on offense in their last three games.

This game being played in a dome which is definitely a positive for the over. At a low number, I'll side with the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Seattle Seahawks take on the Tennessee Titans in Nashville on Sunday. Seattle is set to have Geno Smith back at quarterback in this one. Smith is still a better quarterback than Drew Lock, and Seattle has some good skill position talent around him. The Seahawks offense is healthier than they have been in quite a while. 

The Tennessee Titans are a below average defense. They are now even weaker with their significant injury issues. Simmons is a star lineman, and they miss him badly. The secondary is very shorthanded as well. Look for the Seattle receivers to get open a lot in this one.

Ryan Tannehill is set to be the starter for the Titans here. While Levis has shown some ability, I actually think Tannehill is at least slightly better than Levis right now. Tannehill has a lot to prove right now too, so I expect him to be aggressive. 

The Seattle defense is bottom five in the NFL in the last three games, and they are definitely a bottom ten unit for the year overall.

This is a low total for the shape of the two defenses here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The weather situations have gotten worse for this game. This is a late game on Sunday and the forecast calls for sustained winds of 16 mph with gusts in the 20's. There is expected to be rain showers at times during the game too.

Buffalo absolutely has to win this game. The Bills are definitely playing better of late, and it has been their defense that has improved the most. They are getting a bit healthier on defense. Buffalo is giving up just 4.8 yards per play in their last three games. The Bills have also allowed only 4.8 yards per play at home this year.

Dallas has been excellent on defense this year. They are giving up just 4.9 yards per play on the season. The Cowboys have done a good job limiting the big plays. 

Both of these teams are in the bottom ten in the NFL in pace of play.

In this year's NFL this is a fairly high total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Browns* The Cleveland Browns have played well at home this year, especially on the defensive end. Cleveland is giving up just 3.5 YPP at home on the season. Even in last Sunday's game against Jacksonville, the team only gave up 4.0 YPP. 

Chicago is coming in off a couple straight good performances, but I think this is a good sell high spot on Chicago. The Bears offense is still just averaging 4.8 YPP in their last three games and those have been against pretty weak defenses. 

Joe Flacco has been pretty solid for the Browns since joining the fold. He has clearly been an upgrade over the guys they were playing at quarterback in recent weeks. The Browns should be able to do enough on offense against a Bears defense that I still consider an average unit at best.

I'll lay the 3 here.

Take Cleveland. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Carolina Panthers offense is the worst offense in the NFL. It isn't even close. Carolina is averaging a dreadful 4.0 yards per play. The second worst offense in the NFL is at 4.3 yards per play. It has gotten worse in recent weeks too for Carolina, and I see no signs of improvement coming soon.

Atlanta is averaging just 4.4 yards per play on the road. Desmond Ridder has been pretty good at home and terrible on the road. 

These two defenses rank 10th (Atlanta) and 11th (Carolina) in yards per play allowed this year. These are defenses that have a clear advantage going into this game.

The weather here calls for rain and winds in the 15 to 25 mph range during this game. This is a field that has been a problem in the past with rain based on poor footing.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play on Broncos* The LA Chargers aren't a team that can lay many points. They play a close game in nearly every single game. The Chargers make strange decisions thanks to  Brandon Staley and they find ways to not score in spots where they should. The Chargers defense isn't good. They are 28th in the NFL in yards per play allowed.

The Broncos have played much better in recent weeks. I do believe the Broncos have a good coaching staff, and I like the trajectory of the team. The Broncos were 0/11 on third down last week and turned the ball over three times and they still nearly won at Houston. Denver is improving defensively, and I rate their offense as a pretty good one.

The Chargers have virtually no home field advantage. With them laying three points against a team that is playing good football, I have to take the points.

Take Denver. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Buffalo Bills offense is still a top five offense in the NFL. Without Ken Dorsey, this Bills offense has been more aggressive and they have looked to run Josh Allen more often.

The Bills defense is still a bit banged up and this unit is no better than an average NFL unit at best. 

Kansas City's offense has been less explosive in general, but the Chiefs are still top 8 in the NFL in yards per play. The Chiefs have to be aggressive here on offense coming off such a poor performance in Green Bay last week.

The Chiefs defense has quietly really fallen off of late. They have allowed 5.6 YPP in their last three games. 

I think both offenses should play well here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Browns offense is a mess right now. Regardless of who is the quarterback for this game, it will be a position where the Browns have a clear weakness. Cleveland's offense is third worst in the NFL in yards per play in the last three games. They are only ahead of the lowly Panthers and Jets.

The Cleveland defense is one of the best in the NFL and they are holding opponents to an average of just 3.4 yards per play when at home. Cleveland's defense had a subpar performance against the Rams, and I would expect a bounce back here.

The Jaguars offense is middle of the pack in the NFL. The defense is a little worse, but they are against a weak offense here.

The weather could play a major role in this game. The current forecast for this one calls for rain and winds of about 25 mph with gusts above 30 mph. Multiple sites are showing similar forecasts here. We know Cleveland is a place where the weather matters a lot with the stadium so close to the lake. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Detroit Lions have been scoring a lot of points, and their defense has shown to have major problems in recent weeks. In the Lions last four games, there has been an average combined total of 61.5 points. 

Detroit is allowing 5.6 yards per play in their last three games. This is looking like a bottom ten defense or so. The Lions are clearly a top five offense too. Detroit has good balance on offense and they have been able to cash in well in the red zone.

The Chicago Bears offense is improving. The Bears scored 26 points on Detroit a couple weeks ago and they probably should have won the game in Detroit. The Bears defense is still a below average unit.

The total here was pushed down earlier in the week due to potential weather concerns. The forecast here has changed though and the current weather calls for no precipitation and winds of just 12 mph. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on 49ers* The San Francisco 49ers are in a great situational spot here. San Francisco has had 10 days to prepare for this massive game. The 49ers should be extremely motivated after their loss to the Eagles in the NFC Championship Game last year. San Francisco essentially didn't have a quarterback for about 3/4 of that game. 

The Eagles have been skating by a lot of late. Philadelphia has had big game after big game and they've had to come back from fairly large margins week after week. The Eagles are a very good team, but they aren't in their best form right now and they have a lot of key injuries. Lane Johnson is banged up as is Fletcher Cox and those are two really key guys on each side of the ball.

San Francisco is 2nd in the NFL in yards per play margin. They are +1.6 YPP on the season. The Eagles are just +0.2 YPP. 

The 49ers had extra time to prepare and they are the healthier team. 

Take San Francisco. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Houston Texans are 5th in the NFL in yards per play this year. C.J. Stroud and the Texans offense has surprised the NFL in general. Tank Dell has been a great weapon on the outside. Houston would have had bigger numbers on offense last week against Jacksonville if it weren't for a couple questionable penalties called on big gainers. The Texans are unlikely to be slowed down too much by a Denver defense that is still clearly below average. Their recent numbers look better, but their last two games have been against backup quarterbacks. The defense of the Broncos gets a much tougher test here.

The Denver Broncos offense is at least an average unit now. The new coaching staff has really helped them a lot. Denver has scored 21 points or more in four straight games. They now go play in a dome against a Houston defense that is allowing 6.3 YPP in their last three games. 

The fast track here and two offenses with the capability of creating explosive plays at any time.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New England Patriots defense is still pretty good. The Patriots are 8th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. New England's defense is put in bad spots, but they are still a quality unit.

The LA Chargers have shown the ability to move the ball well, but find ways to not score touchdowns. I think the Patriots can slow them down and limit the explosive plays.

New England has a terrible quarterback problem, and they do lack skill position players in general on offense. The Pats offense has progressively gotten worse throughout the year.

The weather here calls for rain throughout the game with wind gusts of 20 mph. This should make for some more conservative play calls during the game.

Take the under.

*3 Star Play Under* The Kansas City Chiefs defense is still underrated. Kansas City fourth in the NFL in defensive DVOA. They have allowed just 4.7 yards per play in their last three games. 

Las Vegas has changed their style of play for their new coach. They are running the ball more and trying to keep games lower scoring and win with defense. The Raiders defense is 16th in DVOA and they have a strong pass rush.

These two teams are both top eight in the NFL in explosiveness allowed. They don't give up the big plays very often.

Both teams rank in the bottom half of the NFL in tempo. 

Las Vegas has had nine games in a row stay under this posted total. The Chiefs have had 3 straight games go under this posted total. A combined 12 straight games under this total. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Buffalo Bills are third in the NFL in yards per play and all the advanced stats still show this Buffalo offense as a top five offense. Josh Allen and this offense looked good against a good Jets defense last week in their first week without Dorsey as OC. Buffalo's passing attack has a nice edge over the Eagles secondary. Philadelphia's one weakness as a team is their secondary. I think Buffalo can take advantage of that weakness.

The Philadelphia Eagles offense has been a little inconsistent this year, but I think they can play well against a Buffalo defense that isn't good in its current state. The Bills defense has suffered a ton of key injuries. 

These two teams rank 16th and 17th in yards per play allowed. Both offenses have big play ability.

Rain is the in forecast, but there isn't any wind to speak of in the forecast and that is the big key.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Texans* The Houston Texans are trended in the right direction in a big way. I like the culture and chemistry this team has under DeMeco Ryans. They clearly want to play very hard for him. 

Houston's offense is first in the NFL in yards per play in the last three games. C.J. Stroud has been fantastic, and he has enough weapons to spread it around nicely. 

The Jacksonville defense is 26th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. I'm not convinced they can stop Stroud and the Texans. 

Jacksonville's offense is just 18th in the league in yards per play. 

Jacksonville has been outgained on average this year, but has managed to get to 7-3. I think the Jags are overvalued in the marketplace right now.

Take Houston. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kansas City Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce and company, but their defense has actually been their stronger unit this year. Kansas City is 5th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The Chiefs have played nine games this year, and six of the nine have stayed under this total. Their highest final total has been 51 points. 

The Philadelphia Eagles are just 11th in the NFL in yards per play this year. They haven't been as explosive on offense this year as expected. The Eagles defense should be able to get pressure against a mediocre KC offensive line.

The weather here could play a role. The forecast is calling for winds of 15 mph with gusts of 25 mph during this game. There is also a chance of showers. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play on Dolphins* The Miami Dolphins have shown the ability and the willingness to beat up on weaker team this year. Yes, I know the Raiders have a 5-5 record. I still think the Raiders are a weak team.

The Raiders beat up on the Tommy Devito led Giants who are the worst team in the NFL right now. They then edged out Wilson and the Jets despite being outgained pretty badly. Las Vegas still has a bunch of problems as a team. They have averaged 4.4 YPP or less in three of their last four games.

Miami is going to score here. Tua and the cast around him are really dangerous. The Raiders defense is mediocre at best. They do give up big plays in the passing attack. They haven't been playing teams who can take advantage of that recently, but that changes here. The Dolphins are off a bye week and are much healthier now.

I'll lay the points here.

Take Miami. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Arizona Cardinals should be a different offense now that Kyler Murray is back. We saw it already last week with Arizona putting up 5.9 YPP and 25 points against a pretty good Atlanta Falcons defense. Murray just gives them far more big play ability than anyone else they had all season. Conner being back is very helpful as well.

C.J. Stroud has been amazing in his rookie season. Stroud has done a remarkable job of hitting a bunch of explosive plays while still not turning the ball over much. He is playing like a top 8 or 10 quarterback already. 

These are both below average defenses. They aren't very good in the secondary, and I think that will be exploited here. 

This is on a fast track in the dome which is helpful.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Cincinnati Bengals offense has really improved a lot of late with Joe Burrow getting healthy and the unit coming into its own. The Bengals are averaging 26.6 points per game in their last five games. The early season poor results from the offense means little at this point.

On the other side though, the Bengals defense is looking far worse than it did a year ago. Cincinnati is now second to last in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The Texans offense torched them on Sunday for 544 yards. This defense has been a problem spot this year for Cincinnati. 

Baltimore is averaging 32.2 points per game in their last five games. They have scored 31 points or more in four straight contests. 

The Ravens defense is very good, but Burrow and the Bengals have scored 24, 24, and 27 points on them in the last three head to head meetings. 

The total earlier this year was 45.5 and it finished 27-24. Since then both offenses have improved quite a bit.

Take the over. 

*This line has moved up some since early in the week, but I still rate this 4 star up to 47 and a 3 star play above that. Thanks and good luck* 

*3 Star Play on Seattle* The Seattle Seahawks are coming off a blowout loss at Baltimore last week. The Ravens have made a habit of blowing out some pretty good teams at home this year. Seattle is a quality team and in the NFL good teams off of blowouts have bounced back well in the last decade. That is especially true when they are playing at home. 

Washington didn't have a good defense to start with and now they got rid of their star pass rushers. It didn't hurt them too badly against New England this week, but I expect Washington's defense to be very weak against solid opponents. The Seattle offense has a lot of weapons. 

The Washington offense is inconsistent with Sam Howell at quarterback. Seattle's defense is an improved unit on the whole.

Seattle is +0.97 yards per play margin at home this year. Washington is -0.74 YPP margin on the road. 

I like the bounce back spot for the home team.

Take Seattle. 

*3 Star Play on Cowboys* The Dallas Cowboys are favored by 17 here, and I almost never lay this many points in the NFL. In this case I think it is warranted. 

The New York Giants offensive line ranks last by a mile in PFF pass blocking grade. This unit is just atrocious. Daniel Jones and Tyrod Taylor are hurt so it is Tommy Devito starting for the Giants here. Devito is not an NFL quarterback. He struggled to keep his job at Syracuse in college. 

Dallas has an elite pass rush and they should make things miserable for Devito.

Dallas has already won four games by more than this point spread this year. Dak Prescott is 27-11 ATS as a favorite of six points or more.

Take Dallas. 

*3 Star Play on Falcons* The Atlanta Falcons have underachieved a bit of late. They are coming off an embarrassing loss to the Vikings who were shorthanded in a big way. They now travel to take on the Cardinals. Arizona is arguably the worst team in the NFL. Kyler Murray will start this game for Arizona, but it has been a really long time since he has played and I am keeping my expectations lower for him here. The Falcons do have a pretty good defense.

Drake London is back for the Falcons here and he gives them a really good WR on the outside. I do like Taylor Heinecke at quarterback as the better option than Ridder for the Falcons. 

If the Falcons want any chance at a playoff spot this year- this is a must win.

Take Atlanta. 

*3 Star Play on Jets* The LA Chargers picked up an easy win over the Chicago Bears. I think they are getting too much love from that performance. The Bears a bottom three team in the NFL and they were on their backup quarterback in that one. 

Justin Herbert played better last game, but that was against the Bears defense which I rank as second worst in the NFL. Now, he goes up against a top 5 defense in the NFL in the New York Jets. Herbert has been more inconsistent this year, and I think he'll be under a lot of pressure in this game.

The Jets have played the second toughest strength of schedule in the league according to Sagarin this year. The Chargers are 12th. 

The Chargers defense is a bottom five defense in the NFL. The Jets are certainly limited on offense, but they should be able to move the ball fairly well here.

The Jets have played very well at home, and I'll grab the points here.

Take the Jets. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Indianapolis Colts are an over team. Gardner Minshew is a gunslinger. He can move the team up and down the field, but he can also give the other team a pick six with his questionable decision making at times. The Colts defense is bottom five in the NFL. Indianapolis has been playing quicker of late as well.

The Colts last three games have finished 37-20, 39-38, and 38-27. The last two of those were against the Browns and Saints. Both of those teams have suspect offenses and great defenses. If you are able to get very high scoring games against them, I have to look toward the over in your games when they are set this low.

Carolina hasn't been a good offense,  but I think Bryce Young and company can have some success offensively against a weak secondary and a subpar pass rush in Indianapolis. The Panthers have had 3 of their last 5 games get over 60 points total, so they are capable of being in shootouts. 

The weather looks good for this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Washington Commanders have had one strength on defense in the last couple years- they had a good pass rush because of a strong defensive line. They traded away that big strength. Chase Young and Montez Sweat both were traded away this week. Washington has been a bottom five defense in the NFL in yards per play even before these trades, and now they are worse.

The New England Patriots have been slowed by quite a few injuries on the defensive side of the football this year. They are still a decent defense, but they are far from the dominant defense we've seen in past seasons. 

Washington's Sam Howell is willing to take chances and I think he can hit on some deep passes against the Patriots secondary. The Patriots offense should look much better without a pass rush on them.

This total is set very low for a game involving a very weak defense and no weather issues. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Carolina* Is it fun to bet on the Panthers here? No, but this is a situational spot that has been very good in the past. It is a fade of a Texans team that has wildly overachieved expectations and has been covering spreads at a high rate and margin so far this year. Things usually even out in the NFL and I think the Texans will come back to earth a bit.

Also, the Panthers are winless, but they are coming off a bye week. Carolina should show up with a better effort in a game like this. It's one of their better chances to win a game, and the team is healthier now than it has been of late.

Carolina changing the play caller for their offense should help as well. I'll go with the buy low/sell high here.

The Texans are +6 in turnover margin on the season. That should regress to the mean over time. 

Take Carolina. 

*3 Star Play on Jets* The New York Giants have the worst offensive line in the NFL. The Jets have an elite defense. The Jets are a top 3 defense with a good pass rush and elite cornerbacks. The Jets had a bye week last week and come into this game in good shape health wise. 

Tyrod Taylor is a pretty good game manager, but he is playing behind a terrible offensive line and there aren't many talented wide receivers on the Giants roster. 

Zach Wilson is still not a good quarterback, but he is playing much better than he did in past seasons. The Jets offensive line is improved and the Jets skill position talent is much better than the Giants.

There is no home field advantage here for the Giants.

I'll take the team that is much stronger in the trenches.

Take the Jets. 

*3 Star Play Over* The NFL has had a lot of low scoring games this year. The under has been cashing at a really high rate. That usually tends to regress at least somewhat toward the mean after extremes. This game is being played on the fast track in Dallas. Both of these quarterbacks have shown to be very good when in these conditions.

The Rams offense is very good now with two great receivers on the outside. Diggs being out for Dallas definitely hurts them against this kind of passing attack. 

The Cowboys offense underachieved the last couple games before their bye week. They put a lot of time and focus into turning things around this week. I expect a sharper performance from their offense.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Eagles* The Miami Dolphins are a good team. I'm not ready to say they are almost equal to the Philadelphia Eagles overall though. Miami has a ton of speed on the outside. Tua is playing playing very well at quarterback. The Dolphins still have more weaknesses as a team than do the Eagles.

Miami has played three road games this year. They won by two at the LA Chargers (no HFA for the Chargers here), at New England (7 point win), and at Buffalo (28 point loss). The Dolphins have also played the Giants and Panthers the last couple weeks. The schedule hasn't been difficult on the whole.

Philadelphia has a fantastic offensive line. The Eagles should be able to run the ball on a mediocre Dolphins run defense. The Eagles should be in a bad mood after a -4 TO margin game cost them and they lost 20-14 to the Jets last week. 

The Eagles defensive line should be in the backfield a lot here too. The Eagles are the much stronger team in the trenches. I think they can win this game on the lines here. 

The home field advantage should be great at night in front of the raucous Philly crowd. 

Take the Eagles. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Baltimore Ravens defense is second in the NFL in yards per play allowed at 4.0. The Detroit Lions defense is fifth in the NFL in yards per play allowed at just 4.7. Everyone knew the Ravens would have a solid defense and they do, but the Lions defense has improved so much from the past couple years.

Baltimore's offense has been inconsistent this year. The Ravens gained just 5.1 YPP against a mediocre Titans defense last week. The Ravens sit at just 5.2 yards per play on average for the season overall. 

The Detroit offense hasn't had to face many good defenses yet. They put up just 20 against a pretty good Atlanta defense. They scored only 20 on Tampa Bay last weekend.

The weather in this one should be a factor. All of the longer range forecasts are calling for a very windy game here. There are expected to be sustained winds of about 20 mph with gusts of around 35 mph. That is enough to really change the game and make things much more conservative.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The New England Patriots offense is an absolute mess right now. New England couldn't score a point against New Orleans a couple weeks ago, and the offense was still very weak with only 259 total yards of offense against a mediocre Raiders defense last week.

Buffalo's offense has been very inconsistent this year. The Bills struggled badly to score last week against the Giants. The Bills defense has held 3 of their last 5 opponents to 10 points or fewer. 

I consider New England a bottom three offense in the the NFL, but the Pats also have a top five or so defense in the NFL.

The weather should be a nice bonus here too. The forecast calls for sustained winds of around 18 mph with gusts of 35 mph during this game. That should help cut down on the downfield passing game and make both teams more conservative.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New Orleans Saints have a top five defense in the NFL. Dennis Allen is a fantastic defensive minded coach. The Saints defense is strong on all levels. There is no clear weakness. 

New Orleans is also a very questionable offensive team. The Saints play calling on offense leaves a lot to be desired. They play slowly and don't hit many big plays.

The Jacksonville Jaguars scored 37 points against the Colts so you would think they were great on offense in that one. They were not even good offensively. It was the Colts turnovers that led to the points. In fact, the Jaguars offense put up just 233 total yards and 3.8 yards per play.

The Jaguars defense now ranks in the top 10 in the NFL in most categories. They held the Colts to 4.8 yards per play. 

Trevor Lawrence is banged up and is getting tests on his knee. He is likely to be less than 100 percent here (assuming he will play). This is a short week.

The Saints have now played 12 straight games that have stayed under this total. Their highest combined total this year is 37 points. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Lions* The Detroit Lions are a well coached team that doesn't have a glaring weakness anywhere. Detroit has had a weak defense in past years, but they are sitting at 6th in the NFL in yards per play allowed so far this year. The Lions are 5th in the NFL in yards per play on offense. 

Detroit picked up a win at Kansas City in game one. They picked up a win at Green Bay in a key divisional game as well. They have been ready to play on the road under Dan Campbell.

Tampa Bay is better than people thought they might be, but I think Baker Mayfield and this Bucs offense is a bit overvalued now. The Bucs still have their offensive limitations. The offensive line isn't that strong, and Mayfield is still a questionable decision maker at times. 

Take Detroit. 

*3 Star Play on Patriots* The New England Patriots have been blasted in two games in a row. The average NFL bettor isn't going to want to take them. The Raiders are coming off a win on Monday night. Las Vegas only averaged 4.4 yards per play in that win. The Raiders won that game in tight fashion thanks to Jordan Love's interceptions (3). 

New England is still well coached. The Patriots have played a tough schedule to this point. In fact, you could make an argument that this is the worst team they have played so far. New England played Philly and Miami very tough. 

The Raiders playing the Monday night game means they had less time to prepare for this game. 

Buying low and selling high in the NFL is very important. I'm buying the Patriots at a very low point. I'll grab the points.

Take New England. 

*4 Star Play Under* The New Orleans Saints defense has been tremendous all season. New Orleans is also a very cautious offense compared to most in the NFL. They don't take many shots down the field. New Orleans scored 34 points against New England last game, but that is pretty misleading. They averaged just 4.3 YPP. They got a pick six and had multiple short fields due to bad turnovers and the Pats going for it from their own side. 

Houston was beaten right as the clock hit zero by Atlanta 21-19 last game. C.J. Stroud has been fantastic this year. I still think he will find it tougher going in this one than in most games because this Saints secondary is the real deal. The Texans defense is scrappy and they are limiting big plays.

Both teams are coached by defensive minded head coaches. 

The Saints have played a stunning 11 straight games that have finished at a combined 40 points or lower. This year, they have had all 5 of their games finish at 37 points or lower. 

I like this one to stay a defensive battle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Rams* The Philadelphia Eagles haven't played all that well this year. They are unbeaten, but they have had a lot of close call. The Eagles needed overtime to beat the Commanders at home last week. Philadelphia is 10th in the NFL in yards per play. The LA Rams are 11th. 

The Eagles are 27th in the NFL in passing defense this year. What can the Rams do well? They can throw it around. We know the Rams have a great coaching staff on the offensive side, and they should put their playmakers in good spots to succeed in this game. Cooper Kupp is questionable for this game, but even if he doesn't play Nacua to have a big game here. The Eagles secondary has been bitten by the big play all year.

The Rams are one spot in front of the Eagles on defense in yards per play allowed (16th and 17th). The overall stats for these two don't look all that different so far this year. Getting this many points in a home game, I'll back the Rams.

Take Los Angeles. 

*4 Star Play Under* The New Orleans Saints defense is solid in all areas. They are coached by a defensive minded coach, and they do a good job of minimizing big plays allowed. On the other side, New Orleans has a weak offense. The Saints are averaging just 4.4 yards per play (29th in the NFL). 

If you took under 40 (a very low total in today's NFL) in the last 10 games involving the New Orleans, you would be a perfect 10-0. The Saints have yet to have a game finish with a combined score higher than 37 this year. They have scored 17 points or fewer in three of their four contests.

The New England Patriots are clearly a bottom eight offense in the NFL. They don't have the game breakers to threaten strong defenses. New England is still a well coached defense, and I would expect the Pats to be far more ready to play after being embarrassed last weekend by Dallas.

The weather here is a factor too. Sustained winds of about 17 mph with gusts to 27 mph during this game are a help for the defenses.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Chicago Bears defense is awful. They aren't good even when they have a healthy secondary, and now they have a banged up secondary and have the worst pass defense in the NFL. The Bears are 31st in the NFL in yards per play allowed. 

Chicago has looked better on offense the last couple weeks. The Bears are a middle of the road offense and the worst or second worst defense in the NFL. I see Chicago as an over team right now. 

Washington has topped 30 points in two of their four games. The Commanders do have enough skill position talent to break some big gainers, especially against a very weak Chicago defense.

Chicago's games have finished with 51, 44, 51, and 59 points. 

I think this total is a little too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Kansas City* The Kansas City Chiefs defense is a really underrated unit right now. Chris Jones makes a huge difference back in the fold. He was able to sit a lot of last week's game because the score got out of control right away against the Bears. He was limited in practice this week, but is expected to be ready to go here. Kansas City has an above average pass rush, and the Jets pass blocking is very weak. 

Zach Wilson is one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the NFL (maybe the worst). He is playing behind a bad offensive line, and he's going to have a lot of pressure in this one.

The Kansas City Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce and company ready to go against a solid Jets defense. Andy Reid has lots of great offensive weapons at his disposal, and I don't think the Jets have an answer for stopping Kelce in the middle of the field. 

Wilson is 10-14 ATS as a starter in the NFL, and he has failed to cover in five straight games. The Chiefs are really tough to shut down. How many can we expect the Jets to score here? Not very many in my opinion.

Take Kansas City. 

*3 Star Play on Bills* The Miami Dolphins put up 70 points last week, and the Miami offense is tremendous. I think this is a good spot to go against them though. 

Miami's defense is still the weakest unit in this game. The Dolphins gave up 34 points in the only game they played a good offense so far this year. Buffalo's offense will test them in a big way. 

Buffalo played a poor first game, but they have bounced back very nicely since. Buffalo is still one of the teams in the NFL that has the highest upside. The Bills know they need this game with their strong home field advantage.

The Dolphins are a good team, but I'm selling high on them in this spot. 

It sounds like Damar Hamlin might take the field in this one, and that is a big emotional boost for the home team.

Take Buffalo. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Bengals and Titans have played twice in the last couple seasons. The final scores of those two games were 19-16 (in overtime) and 20-16. This total is set low for a reason. 

Joe Burrow is a great quarterback when healthy. He is clearly not healthy right now. He's a battler and he'll do his best to help his team win, but it is tough for him to throw the ball down the field right now. The Bengals offense has a much harder time breaking big gainers in its current state. 

Cincinnati's offensive line isn't very good still, and the Titans have been shutting down the run game all year. Joe Mixon isn't likely to be very efficient here. 

The Bengals defensive line dominated the Rams offensive line on Monday night. The Titans offensive line is a major weakness. I think Cincinnati will get in the backfield early and often here. 

Tennessee wants to turn every game into a low scoring rock right. The Bengals are far more prone to that kind of game with Burrow playing severely hampered. Both teams have played at a slower than average pace this year as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kansas City Chiefs defense is much improved. Many still think of KC as a team that has to win shootouts, but that is no longer true. The Chiefs are 10th in yards per play allowed so far this year. They have faced a good Detroit offense and that was without star Chris Jones. They then took on a talented Jacksonville offense and did a great job holding them to 271 yards and 9 points. 

The Chicago Bears are 26th in the NFL in yards per play. Justin Fields hasn't looked good at all, and the KC defensive line is likely to be far too much for this Bears offensive line.

The Kansas City offense isn't quite clicking on all cylinders yet and they do still have some injuries.  

There is a very strong system that backs the under here. Andy Reid at home as a big favorite has been a great under bet. Why? Reid is well known for when his team gets the lead by margin he takes his foot off the gas and doesn't use his best plays. 

Reid's teams at home favored by 7.5 points or more- the under is a whopping 39-16-3 since 2004. The average margin of is nearly 6 points to the under. In this situation when it is a non-divisional game the under is 28-9 in the last 37.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Miami Dolphins have been the best offense in the NFL so far, and it hasn't been close. Miami is averaging a whopping 7.3 yards per play on the season. They put up 6.4 YPP on a strong New England defense. 

The Denver defense has regressed in a big way this year. Denver also will be without safety Justin Simmons who is a key loss against Tua and this Miami passing attack.

Jaylen Waddle is questionable here. He did practice on Friday which is a good sign. It's a big bonus if he can play in this one.

The Denver offense has been tremendous early in games with their scripted drives. Payton is clearly a big help to Russell Wilson and this offense in general. Denver has more big play ability, and they have picked up their tempo.

I don't think the books have adjusted Denver enough based on their improvement on offense and decline on defense.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Detroit Lions have been a tremendous over team on their home turf of late. Jared Goff is a quarterback who is hurt by poor weather conditions more than most in the NFL. Goff has no concerns to worry about on the fast track at Ford Field. Goff also has a really nice cast around him now in Detroit. St. Brown is expected to play in this one and he is an elite WR. I like Gibbs getting most of the carries in the backfield here, because I view him as the more dynamic running back for the Lions. Laporta is fitting in nicely at tight end too.

The Atlanta Falcons have a superstar in the backfield now in Bijan Robinson. He is a game breaker and I expect him to have a big game against a Lions defense that is below average against the run. The Falcons have enough play makers on offense now to be a problem. Ridder is slowly getting better at QB. 

A low total considering the Lions on the fast track. Neither defense is elite and I'll side with the over.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play on Cowboys* The Dallas Cowboys should be power rated as a top two or three team in the NFL right now. Dallas has upgraded on defense in the offseason. Gilmore is a big boost to a team who didn't have depth in the secondary. Dallas has one of the very best players in the NFL in Micah Parsons, and now they have no clear weakness on the defense.

The New York Jets are coming off one of the most emotional wins you will ever see in the NFL. Aaron Rodgers was hurt immediately in their Monday night contest against the Bills. It looked like they were done. Instead, the defense delivered a great performance and Zach Wilson did just enough for them to win in overtime. 

I don't think Dak Prescott will make as many mistakes as Josh Allen did in this one. The Dallas offense has all kinds of weapons, and Pollard getting more touches now is a good thing. 

The Jets defense is good, but I don't think they are good enough to hold down Dallas all game. The Jets are on short rest and off an emotional win. It's a tough spot for them.

Dallas is 11-5 ATS in their last 16 laying 7.5 points or more. 

Take Dallas. 

*3 Star Play on Giants* The Arizona Cardinals were able to stay within the spread against the Washington Commanders last week. Arizona did benefit from 3 Washington turnovers in that game. The Arizona offense led by Josh Dobbs at quarterback had just 3.6 yards per play. Dobbs threw the ball 30 times and had only 132 yards passing. This Arizona offense isn't good at all.

The New York Giants had things spiral out of control against a very good Dallas Cowboys team. The Giants have a lot more talent than the Cardinals, and I think the Giants have a coaching edge here too. The Giants are in a good bounce back spot. After being embarrassed in game one, they now play arguably the worst team in the NFL. 

The Giants appear to me to be a team that will struggle against the best teams in the league, but look good against the worst teams in the league. 

I think perception is too high on the Cardinals after their close loss in week one. I think perception is too low on the Giants after their big loss in week one.

Take New York. 

*3 Star Play on Bengals* The Baltimore Ravens are the most banged up team in the NFL at this point. Baltimore is without five starters for this game. J.K. Dobbins, Marlon Humphrey, Tyler Linderbaum, Ronnie Stanley, and Marcus Williams are all expected to miss this game. The two spots that are the biggest concern are the secondary and the offensive line. 

The Bengals have a team that can absolutely expose any secondary weaknesses to begin with, and the Ravens are missing two stars in the secondary. It will be hard to keep Chase, Higgins, and the rest of the Bengals pass catchers down in this one.

Cincinnati played terribly in week one. The Bengals were embarrassed by the Cleveland Browns. The Browns have had their number of late. Cleveland's elite defensive line really bothers the Bengals and Joe Burrow. Also, the weather wasn't a help for what the Bengals like to do. Burrow once again missed the preseason and a bunch of practice time leading up to the season.

The Bengals are absolutely one of the most talented teams in the NFL. They are far healthier than the Ravens. They are laying a field goal at home against a Baltimore team that is trying to run a new offense and is without two good offensive linemen. The Bengals defensive line (especially DJ Reader) could cause a lot of trouble in this game. 

It's a get right spot for Burrow and the Bengals. 

Take Cincinnati. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Philadelphia Eagles travel to New England to take on the Patriots on Sunday. Philadelphia is coming off a heartbreaking loss in the Super Bowl. New England's defense was still excellent last year, but their offense wasn't good. 

I don't see much to make me think the Patriots offense has gotten much better this year either. New England still doesn't have a good quarterback, and they are still short on weapons on the outside as well. 

Philadelphia is loaded defensively, and the Eagles defensive line is going to cause major problems for the Patriots in this one.

Bill Belichick is a defensive minded coach, and his defenses have been very ready for the start of the season the last few years. The under is a perfect 5-0 in the Patriots last 5 season openers. The average margin of those unders is a whopping 11 points. I think they'll have a good game plan for this one too.

There is a little rain in the forecast here with a slight wind too. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Steelers* The Pittsburgh Steelers played extremely well in the preseason. I fully understand the preseason is a different animal, but Mike Tomlin's team developed some great habits in the preseason. 

Pittsburgh has made a habit of covering as an underdog under Mike Tomlin. The Steelers are 51-27 ATS in their last 78 games as an underdog with Mike Tomlin as their coach. They are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 as a home underdog. Pittsburgh has an average ATS margin of +6.04 points in those 19 games as a home underdog. They are in that role here in week one, and I like the spot for them.

The Steelers have an elite defensive line when healthy, and to start this season they are healthy. The 49ers have several key players banged up heading into this one.  George Kittle and Nick Bosa are both banged up. One or both of them might play here but they are both less than 100% healthy.

Kyle Shanahan's teams are 1-5 ATS in Week One of the season. The 49ers are a good team, but they haven't been ready in week one. I think the Steelers will be in this situation.

Take Pittsburgh. 

*3 Star Play on Tampa Bay* The Minnesota Vikings were 11-0 in one score games last year. Minnesota finished 27th in DVOA and had a negative point differential last year, but they won 13 games. Obviously, the Vikings weren't as good as their record would indicate. 

Minnesota has too many weaknesses on defense. The Vikings linebackers and secondary are definitely below average. Though Tom Brady is gone, the Bucs do have plenty of weapons in the passing attack to make Minnesota pay for these weaknesses. Baker Mayfield played well in the preseason. The trio of Evans, Godwin, and Gage is a very solid one for Tampa Bay. 

Tampa Bay clearly has the defensive edge in this one. The Bucs have Vita Vea, Lavonte David, and Shaq Barrett in the front seven. Antoine Winfield Jr. and Carlton Davis are strong in the secondary too. 

Minnesota has a good passing attack, but the run game is weak. I think the Vikings will get too one dimensional here.

Underdogs have cashed in at a high rate in week one in the last decade. 

Take Tampa Bay. 

*2 Star Play on Eagles ML* The Philadelphia Eagles have been a very complete team all year. They lead the league in sacks with 77. It is the best pass rush in the NFL. The Eagles also have the best offensive line in the NFL. If you are this good in the trenches, you are a very tough out. 

Philadelphia should be able to run the football in a way that the Jaguars and Bengals weren't able to against this Chiefs defensive front. Kansas City is a below average run defense, and I think that will really hurt them in this game. The Eagles have a great runner in Jalen Hurts and three great options at running back as well. 

Kansas City is a very good team, but they come into this game pretty banged up. Mahomes is the best quarterback in the league, but his weapons aren't nearly as good now as they were in previous years or even at the start of the season. The Chiefs running backs are poor in pass protection and that could come back to bite them in this one. 

I think the Eagles are the more complete team.

Take Philadelphia on the moneyline at the short price. 

*3 Star Play Under* The San Francisco 49ers have made it to the NFC Championship Game with rookie quarterback Brock Purdy leading the way. It certainly doesn't hurt to have the weapons he has around him, but Purdy has done a good job. My concern with Purdy is he has played some very weak defenses up until last week against Dallas. The Cowboys made him look very shaky. The Eagles have 70 sacks this year, and they are going to bring a lot of pressure. Can Purdy handle it here? I would expect Kyle Shanahan to have a fairly conservative game plan on offense here. We've seen the 49ers run the football a bunch in the past, and they may well do it again here. 

I'm not sure if Jalen Hurts is 100 percent healthy yet. He is very good even at less than 100 percent, but the 49ers have the front seven to make him uncomfortable in the backfield. Nick Bosa is an absolute beast, and the rest of the defensive line is great as well. The Eagles did allow 44 sacks this year.

The 49ers have the slowest tempo of any team in the NFL. If they are running the ball a lot here the drives could take up a bunch of time. Both of these defenses have been pretty good at not giving up the big play.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play on Bengals* The Cincinnati Bengals are 36-17 ATS in their last 53 road games. Cincinnati is 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning record. The Bengals have been underrated by the oddsmakers for a good while.

The Bengals have a superstar quarterback in Joe Burrow. He's a fantastic leader who stays calm at all times. He throws such an accurate football. He has elite weapons in Chase, Higgins, Boyd, and Hurst. The Bills secondary is their biggest weakness. I expect the Bengals to hit some big plays in the passing game here. 

Buffalo is a really good team, but they have struggled with turnovers. Josh Allen has fumbled a bunch and thrown some key interceptions through the year. This Bengals defense is underrated by many. They have a lot of ballhawks on the unit. DJ Reader is an elite run stuffer. Logan Wilson is an excellent linebacker. The pass rush led by Hendrickson and Hubbard should do some damage too.

The concern is certainly the Bengals offensive line, which is badly shorthanded here. I do expect the Bills pass rush to get to Burrow through this game. Still, this line has gone from -3.5 to -6. The Bengals were playing very well against the Bills in the first game when it was stopped. I think this is too many points for a very solid Bengals team.

Take Cincinnati. 

*3 Star Play Under* The San Francisco 49ers host the Seattle Seahawks in Santa Clara on Saturday afternoon. You don't often think of weather issues in games in California, but the weather is very weird in the San Francisco area right now.

There are major rainstorms in the area and that has caused massive flooding already. The weather for Saturday calls for rain and winds of 13 mph with gusts of 25-28 mph. This field surfae is considered a slow field (a plus for unders) and now it should be very wet. The wind is a big boost as well.

Seattle's offense hasn't been very good down the stretch. As good as Geno Smith was early in the year, he really struggled late in the season.

San Francisco's defense is one of the top three defenses in the NFL. The 49ers offense has been good under Purdy, but their point totals have been inflated due to great field position and defensive touchdowns.

Both of the regular season meetings finished with a total of 34 points.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on LA Rams* The Seattle Seahawks haven't been playing very well at the end of the season. The Seattle offense has slowed down a lot in recent weeks. Geno Smith started the year on fire, but Smith has been struggling a lot in recent weeks. 

Seattle had a lot of trouble with Los Angeles a few weeks when Wolford started for the Rams. Baker Mayfield isn't good, but he is better than Wolford. Also, Mayfield hits his running backs and tight ends a lot and that is an area where the Seattle defense has struggled a lot this year. 

Cam Akers is running the ball much better of late. The Seahawks are a bottom ten run defense in the NFL. The weather in this game looks questionable, and I think Akers could have a solid game here. 

The Seahawks are a flawed team, and I think they are laying too many points here against an NFC West foe.

Take the Rams. 

*3 Star Play on Steelers* The Pittsburgh Steelers are fighting hard to finish above .500. Mike Tomlin has never had a record worse than .500, and they need to win the last two games to keep that amazing streak going. Pittsburgh has been fighting hard, and playing much better football of late.

The first meeting between these two Pittsburgh clearly outplayed Baltimore, but lost by 2 because of three turnovers. That was Mitch Trubisky, but it will be Kenny Pickett in this one. 

Tyler Huntley should be the starter for the Ravens here. Huntley isn't a dynamic quarterback, and the Ravens are really lacking big playmakers on offense. 

Mike Tomlin is a stunning 50-27 ATS in his last 77 games as an underdog. He is 20-8 ATS as an underdog vs. AFC North competition. 

The games between these two teams have come right down to the wire in low scoring games consistently. This should be the same, but I like the Steelers chances of pulling the small upset here.

Take Pittsburgh. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Detroit Lions defense ranks dead last in the NFL in yards per play allowed this year. Detroit has allowed 6.3 yards per play on the season. For a while many people thought the Lions defense was improving a lot, but now in their last three games they have allowed 7.0 yards per play. The Lions are a very weak defense.

The Chicago Bears traded away some of their best defenders earlier in the year. Chicago's defense actually ranks dead last in Total EPA on the season now. They rank third worst in yards per play allowed for the season as well as in their last three games. 

This might be the two worst defenses in the NFL up against each other.

The Lions have been an offensive juggernaut at home this year, and this Bears defense is the worst defense they have played at home. 

Chicago's Justin Fields has been playing well. He has the ability to extend plays and be a major force with his legs. 

This game is played in a dome on a fast track. I like the offenses to have a big day.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Malik Willis gets the start here for the Tennessee Titans. He started the first matchup between these two. That game finished 17-10. The Titans ran the ball 45 times that game. Malik Willis threw the ball only 10 times for a total of 55 yards.

The Titans play at the single slowest tempo of any team in the league. With Willis under center the Titans play calling will be ultra conservative. Derrick Henry has had success against the Texans, and he likely will here again. Still, these should be long drives that take a lot of time off the clock.

The Texans offense had a measly 161 yards of offense in the first meeting between these two. Houston has been really bad on offense away from home. 

This game has 13 mph winds with gusts of 21 mph in the forecast. That could be a small bonus too.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* It is Desmond Ridder against Tyler Huntley in this matchup. The Falcons play calling has been really conservative all year, and that isn't going to change with Ridder at quarterback. 

Atlanta wants to run the football, but Baltimore has a top five run defense in the NFL. The Falcons are 26th out of 32 teams in the NFL in tempo as well. 

The Ravens coaching staff took a lot of heat for how many times they threw the ball last week. I would expect a lot more running int his one. Huntley is only mediocre as a quarterback, and this Ravens offense is not explosive right now.

The weather is a bonus here too. The forecast calls for sustained winds of 16 mph and gusts of 25 mph throughout the game. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Minnesota Vikings defense ranks 31st in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The New York Giants defense ranks 28th in yards per play allowed. These two bad defenses square off in a game played in a dome this weekend. 

The Giants certainly aren't a great offense, but the Vikings have had a way of making bad offenses look good. The Vikings have allowed 26 against the Patriots, 36 against the Colts, and 26 against the Cardinals. 

The Vikings offense is dangerous. Kirk Cousins is surrounded by great skill position talent. I don't think the Giants have anyone to slow Jefferson here. 

Look for this game to be back and forth at least for a while.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Tennessee Titans want to run the football. There are a lot of really good rushing defenses in the NFL. The LA Chargers are not one of those. LA is in fact the worst rushing defense in the NFL. Derrick Henry and company should have success on the ground against the Chargers.

The LA Chargers offense is completely different with Mike Williams on the outside to help Justin Herbert stretch the field. The Chargers play at the second fastest tempo in the league, and they should get plenty of scoring chances here. The Titans defense is badly banged up, and Tennessee is second last in the NFL in yards per play at 6.2 YPP allowed in their last three games. The Titans have allowed 71 points in their last two games.

This is a fairly low total where both teams have clear offensive advantages. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Dallas Cowboys are 4th in the NFL in tempo. The Jacksonville Jaguars are 9th in the NFL in tempo. There should be more possessions in this game than an average NFL game.

The Dallas Cowboys offense is no question a top ten offense in the NFL now that they are much healthier. Dallas has a good balanced attack, so they can beat you in many different ways. Dallas has put up an average of 37.25 points per game in their last four games. 

Jacksonville's offense has been much better of late. Trevor Lawrence is playing really well right now. The Jaguars offensive line has improved, and the Jaguars have some solid weapons around Lawrence. 

The Jacksonville defense is a bottom ten defense in the NFL. While the Jags offense has improved of late, the defense really hasn't.

The Dallas Cowboys secondary has cluster injuries right now and Jacksonville should be able to attack them through the air.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Buffalo Bills defense ranks second in the NFL in yards per play allowed in their last three games. Overall for the season, they rank eighth in yards per play allowed. This is a very solid unit, which is playing its best football of the season of late. 

The Miami Dolphins offense is looking very shaky right now. Miami was very fortunate to even put up 17 points on the Chargers last week. The one touchdown was just a busted play turned into a touchdown by Tyreek Hill and his wheels. Hill is questionable for this game though. 

Buffalo's Josh Allen hasn't played nearly as well since his arm injury. I think it is bothering him more than he is admitting at this point. His numbers have been ordinary in the last few weeks. The Bills offense is still good, but they aren't the dominant offense they looked like early in the season.

The conditions for this game favor an under. There is snow in the forecast for throughout the game and winds of about 15 mph with gusts above 20 mph. That is a clear positive for the under. Tua doesn't have a strong arm and the Dolphins aren't a good running team. Buffalo will likely be more conservative on offense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The number here has already moved down a few points, and I think it should move more to the downside. First, Tyler Huntley got a concussion in the Steelers contest on Sunday. Huntley is an above average backup. He is unlikely to be cleared by Saturday for this Browns contest. If not, John Harbaugh made it sound like it would be Anthony Brown starting this game. It seems like Lamar Jackson will be out for this game as well.

The second key reason the total is dropping here is the weather report in Cleveland on Saturday. The forecast calls for sustained winds of 20 mph with gusts to 35 mph or so. That is enough to impact the game in a big way. 

Deshaun Watson doesn't look very sure of himself in his first two games. He looks uncomfortable and like he needs more time to get reps in this offense. 

The Ravens defense has gotten much better through the year. The Browns defense played pretty well against the Bengals as well. 

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Giants defense has been keeping them in games even when the offense has been really weak. The Eagles defense now ranks first in the NFL for the season in yards per play allowed. 

This is a late season divisional matchup. Those have been great for under bettors through the years. Between games 10 and 16 of the season, divisional totals set at 43 points or higher have gone under at a 58.1% clip since 2004. The sample size there is more than 550 games. 

The weather here could play a role as well. The weather calls for 10 mph winds and rain that could even mix with a little bit of snow during this game. Those are positives for the under.

I expect both teams to run the ball quite a bit here and I think the defenses will do a solid job not giving up the big plays.

The under is a perfect 14-0 in the Giants last 14 as a home underdog.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Detroit Lions have been an over machine at home. Detroit's home games have gone over this total six times, while only one game has gone under this total. The Lions have scored 35 points or more in four of their home games this year. They are back at home against a Minnesota defense that ranks bottom five in the NFL in many categories. 

Minnesota still has the most dominant receiver in the NFL. Detroit is really weak in the secondary. Good passing teams have taken advantage of the Lions on a consistent basis. Kirk Cousins is at least an average quarterback, and in these conditions he has been good through the years.

These two teams rank 7th and 8th in pace of play in the NFL.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Baltimore Ravens are clearly a different team on offense with Tyler Huntley at quarterback than Lamar Jackson. The loss of the big play ability is a big hindrance to the offense. Huntley is a decent backup, but the Ravens lack star power at the rest of the skill positions and I would expect their offensive game plan to be fairly conservative here.

Baltimore's defense has gotten quite a bit better of late. The Ravens picked up Roquan Smith, and he has been their best defensive player. Combining him with Patrick Queen is a dangerous tandem. 

Two of the Ravens last three games have finished at 16 and 19 total points.

Pittsburgh has seen two of their last four games finish under this very low posted total. This is a divisional rivalry where points have been at a premium in the long term. Pittsburgh is healthier on defense now, and the Steelers lack big play ability on offense too. Their run game is very inefficient and that puts too much pressure on Pickett.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Seattle* The Seattle Seahawks have all kinds of reasons to need to win this game. Seattle is 6-5 and still in the thick of the playoff race, but their losses to the Bucs and Raiders in their last two games have really hurt them. Seattle is in major need of a bounce back win.

The LA Rams won the Super Bowl last year, but this team has been a dumpster fire this year. Injuries are certainly one of the main reasons. They will be without Matt Stafford, Cooper Kupp, and Aaron Donald for this game. Their offensive line is in shambles as well. John Wolford will start for the Rams here, and Bryce Perkins may play as well. 

Seattle's defense can be beaten, but this Rams offense hasn't been able to do anything against anyone of late. 

Seattle's offense has plenty of healthy weapons for Geno Smith. Smith has been fantastic this year, and without Donald on the line Smith should get a lot more time to throw in this one.

Take Seattle. 

*4 Star Play on Titans* The Tennessee Titans should be a tough matchup for the Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles have a bottom ten run defense in the league. The Titans are going to run the football early and often with Derrick Henry and their strong offensive line.

Tennessee is coming off a tough loss to the Cincinnati Bengals last week. I really like Mike Vrabel's team as both a road underdog and coming off a loss. Vrabel is one of the best coaches in the NFL. He gets his team to play hard at all times.

The Titans are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games. They are also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 coming off a loss.

The Philadelphia Eagles are a good team, but they haven't been playing as well lately as they did earlier in the year. Philadelphia is a run heavy team, and the Titans run defense is top five in the NFL.

I expect this to be a tight game all the way down to the wire, so I'll grab the points.

Take Tennessee. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Detroit Lions have the worst defense in the NFL. They also have a very good offense when Jared Goff and company are in a dome on a fast track, like they are on their home field. 

Detroit's home games have finished with this many total points: 73, 63, 93, 58, 24, and 53. That's an average of 60.67 points scored per game in the Lions home games this year. 

Jared Goff has plenty of weapons around him to start with, and now Jameson Williams makes his debut. Williams is a supremely talented guy who will help this offense a lot. 

Jacksonville's offense has started clicking of late. Trevor Lawrence is playing his best football as a pro right now. He'll go up against that worst defense in the NFL in perfect conditions. I don't see any reason to expect Detroit's defense to have much success here.

Jerome Boger's crew is the ref crew for this game. Boger is a great over ref. His crew is well known for a lot of defensive holding and pass interference penalties. The over is 124-94 in Boger's games. That's a 57% over rate.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Bryce Perkins gets the start here for the LA Rams. Perkins is the third string quarterback for the Rams and he is in a really tough spot here. Without Cooper Kupp on the outside, Perkins isn't exactly surrounded by great weapons. The Rams will want to run the football here, but the Chiefs have quietly been solid against the run this year.

Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs could probably score quite a few points here, but I'm not sure they will keep their foot on the gas here. Andy Reid's teams have historically constantly been quick to let up and run the clock when they are a big favorite. They are more than a 2 TD favorite here. Kansas City will run the ball more than normal here too. That helps the Rams who do have a top ten run defense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* I think Jimmy G is an underrated quarterback on the whole, and he is surrounded by some of the best weapons in the NFL. When you have guys like Samuel, Kittle, Aiyuk, and McCaffrey around you it is going to be a lot of fun. The Saints defense has had a couple good games, but overall they have been a big disappointment. The Saints aren't the same without Lattimore in the secondary either. They'll miss him badly in this one. 

The Saints have been moving the ball well, and the Saints are more than capable of pick 6's with Dalton at quarterback against a defense that takes chances. At the same time, the Saints receivers are good and I think they can create some big plays here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The LA Chargers offense has been badly shorthanded most of the year. Justin Herbert now has his weapons back at wide receiver and that should make this passing attack be much better the rest of the way. Herbert is still a really good quarterback, and the Chargers play at a quick pace. They are up against a very weak Cardinals secondary. I expect the Chargers to get a lot of big plays here. The Cardinals defense didn't look interested late against the 49ers in their most recent game.

Kyler Murray comes back for the Cardinals here, and that is a clear help to the over. With DeAndre Hopkins this Cardinals offense and Murray this offense has big play potential. The Chargers are allowing nearly 26 points per game.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Bills* The Buffalo Bills have looked like the best team in the NFL when they are focused and playing at their best. They have had several games in a row where they played weaker games than normal. Now, the Bills are in a prime spot here with all eyes on them for the Thanksgiving spotlight game against the Lions.

Detroit comes into this game winners of its last three games. The Lions really aren't a good team though. Detroit has the worst defense in the NFL on a yards per play allowed basis. The Bills have too many weapons for the Lions to slow them down. 

Detroit has consistently been very weak in these Thanksgiving contests. Buffalo played in Detroit last weekend which might be a small positive as well.

Take the Bills. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Minnesota Vikings and Dallas Cowboys will square off in a big game in Minnesota on Sunday. 

Minnesota's offense has big play potential with Justin Jefferson. Kirk Cousins on the whole is a pretty solid quarterback too. Dalvin Cook just ran for 8.5 ypc against the Bills who are a solid defense. Cook has game breaking speed and is capable of busting a big one at any time.

The Dallas offense has put up well north of 400 yards in back to back games. With Dak Prescott back, this becomes one of the better offenses in the NFL again. Tony Pollard is a big play running back too. 

This one should be tight all the way and overtime is a possibility as well. Being played in the dome the conditions are ripe for scoring.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Chicago Bears have become a great over team of late. The Bears have scored 29 points or more in four straight games. They have also allowed 119 points in those four games. That is 29.75 points per game allowed. 

This isn't the Chicago Bears from a few years ago. The Bears had previously been one of the better defenses in the NFL and one of the worst offenses in the NFL. That no longer is the case. The Bears defense is much weaker now. They traded away top talent and some of the other guys are past their prime. 

The Bears coaching staff has found a way to game plan to Justin Fields' strengths and that has made a huge difference. Fields is looking like a dangerous weapon especially with his legs.

Atlanta's defense is second worst in the NFL in yards per play. A.J. Terrell might be back for this one, but even he hasn't been good this year. The Falcons secondary is still very shorthanded. On offense, the Atlanta running attack is likely to work better against the Bears than it has against recent opponents. 

This one being played on a fast track in a dome is helpful for points too.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The weather forecast for this game has gotten increasingly bad. The sustained winds now are expected to be at about 20 mph in this game. The wind gusts are expected to reach 35-40 mph. 

The Patriots have an argument for the best defense in the NFL. New England doesn't give up big plays, and I trust them to slow down the Jets offense especially now that Breece Hall is injured. Wilson is one of the worst QB's in the NFL right now.

The Jets defense has been sneaky good this year. This is a tough group that doesn't let opponents get anything easily. The run defense is very underrated. 

The play calling here should get even more run heavy with this kind of weather. I expect a lot of moving clock.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Matt Stafford is likely to be out with a concussion here. It was said that it will take a stunning turn for him to start in this one. John Wolford would get the start. The Rams offense gets ultra conservative with Wolford at quarterback. With Stafford in the lineup, the Rams are dead last in yards per play in the NFL. Wolford isn't an upgrade. 

Kyler Murray is considered doubtful by many here. He might play, but he is less than 100%- and he would likely take quite a few shots from this strong Rams defensive line if he plays. Colt McCoy is a solid backup, but the Cardinals do have a different and slightly more conservative game plan with him in the lineup too.

The Cardinals defense has given up some big plays this year, but the Rams aren't the team to expose that right now. The Rams are a top 10 defense and their defensive line should get in the backfield here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Steelers* The Pittsburgh Steelers have won five straight games coming out of a bye week. They had a bye week and got healthier for this game. TJ Watt is back in the lineup, and that completely changes their defense. The Saints offensive line is weaker than an average lineup, and Dalton hasn't been good under pressure.

Mike Tomlin has been fantastic as an underdog in his career. He is 9-0 ATS in his last 9 games as a home underdog. The Steelers come in off extra rest and I think this is a good spot to buy low on them. 

The Steelers are 39-16-1 ATS as an underdog from week five onward under Tomlin 

New Orleans has had turnover problems with Dalton in recent games. The Saints are also badly banged up right now. They are without Marson Lattimore (their best corner), Pete Werner, and two starting offensive linemen in this one.

Take Pittsburgh. 

*3 Star Play Over* Don't look now, but the Chicago Bears offense has been absolutely on fire of late. Chicago has put up 33, 29, and 32 points in their last three games. The Bears are starting to utilize Justin Fields in a much better way. Fields has amazing ability to keep plays alive and use his legs to create. 

The Bears traded away their best defensive player, and they have been banged up on defense with the guys who are left also. In their last two games they have given 49 and 35 points. The Lions aren't likely to score that many, but I think Detroit will get plenty of yards and points here.

The Lions defense is a bottom three defense in the NFL. Detroit even allowed nearly 400 yards against the Packers offense last week. Green Bay struggled badly in the red zone, and Rodgers had some bad turnovers. 

Jared Goff has enough weapons around him now with Swift, Williams, and St. Brown being back on the field. Look for them to be able to pick up some chunk plays on this Bears defense.

Both teams are playing at a faster than league average pace.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The LA Chargers have played at the fastest pace of any team in the NFL so far this year. The Chargers are also dead last in run defense allowing 5.7 yards per carry on the season. That's important here since Atlanta runs the ball so often and is a team with explosiveness in the run game.

Atlanta's secondary is a mess right now. Heyward on injured reserve is crucial since he is their best corner. Terrell might come back here, but he has graded out very poorly this season. The team is extremely thin in the secondary. The Chargers are starting to get slightly healthier in the passing game too.

The Chargers have had 3 of their last 4 games finish at 58 points or higher. Atlanta has had their last two games go to 52 points (45 in the first half against the Bengals) and 71 points (against the Panthers who are weak offensively).

I think this total is several points too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Buffalo Bills defense has been underrated by nearly everyone. Buffalo of course has a strong offense, but the defense has been the better unit so far this year. Buffalo hasn't allowed more than 21 points in a game this year. Buffalo is giving up an average of just 14.0 points per game. 

Wilson and the Jets aren't an offense I trust against anyone right now. Wilson is one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL, and he doesn't even have his security blanket in Breece Hall anymore. Hall going down with an injury was a massive loss for this Jets offense. The Jets have scored just 16 and 17 points in their last two games. 

The weather calls for a little wind here (10-15 mph). Divisional unders with wind of 10 mph or more have gone 57% to the under in the last 15 years. This one fits the system.

I don't see the Jets scoring much here, but the Jets defense has played pretty well this year. Gardner is a tremendous addition in the secondary.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Cincinnati Bengals have cluster injuries in the secondary. Awuzie is the leader of the secondary and him being out for the year is a massive loss for this Bengals team. Now Mike Hilton is also out with an injury. Backup cornerback Tre Flowers is doubtful since he missed all week of practice (he could still play). The Bengals are even activating a practice squad cornerback for this game. 

PJ Walker has looked much better the last couple games. DJ Moore is an elite receiver and I expect him to get open deep multiple times against this Bengals secondary. The Bengals pass rush is also subpar, so I think Walker has some time to throw here.

Joe Burrow and the Bengals offense should look much better than it did last game in Cleveland. Even without Chase, the Bengals have plenty of weapons on offense to be solid. The Panthers pass rush isn't as good as the Browns either. Look for Burrow to have a bounce back game here and hit some big gainers. I still view Burrow as one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. If he is given some time here, he can get it done.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Patriots* The New England Patriots are coming off an embarrassing loss to the Chicago Bears. New England has a lot of weaknesses, but they still have a superb head coach steering the ship. I expect a bounce back performance from New England here. This is still the same team that blanked the Lions and blew out the Browns on the road.

The New York Jets are having a nice season, but they are starting to become overvalued. Zach Wilson is arguably the worst starting quarterback in the NFL. He makes far too many mistakes and he isn't always going to get away with those. The Jets have pieces to be dangerous, but they also have glaring weaknesses. 

This is a great spot to back the Patriots coming off a bad loss, and fade the Jets after they are feeling awfully good about themselves.

Take New England. 

*3 Star Play on Cardinals* The Minnesota Vikings have made nearly every single game come right down to the wire both last year and this year. 

Minnesota has a great record, but taking a closer look at the team you can see that the Vikings have clear weaknesses. Kirk Cousins hasn't played very well this year. He is really bothered by pressure up the middle. The Cardinals have a great pass rush and they aren't afraid to blitz. I think Cousins will struggle throwing into the blitz here. 

Arizona's offense is completely different with Hopkins on the outside. Kyler Murray doesn't even look like the same quarterback with Hopkins off the field, but he is back now and this Minnesota defense is a bottom three or four secondary. I think this is a good shot for Murray to have a nice game.

The Vikings needed a miracle comeback at home against the Lions. They had a very misleading win in Miami against a third string QB. 

I see this one staying very close and I'll grab the points.

Take Arizona. 

*3 Star Play Over* The New Orleans Saints defense was supposed to be a high quality defense this year. That hasn't turned out to be the case. Marshon Lattimore's absence badly hurts a thin secondary, and many teams have taken advantage of this weakness. The Raiders have the guys to take advantage too. Davante Adams is expected to play here after missing some time this week due to an illness. Waller is questionable, but the Raiders do have good secondary options and I think Carr is a bit underrated by many people.

The Saints offense has been clicking very nicely of late. New Orleans has scored 25 points or more in four straight games. The Raiders rank 22nd in defensive grade at PFF (the Saints are 21st). Andy Dalton has been slinging it around nicely. Dalton is capable of big plays both ways.

This game is played on a fast track.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Los Angeles Chargers offense struggled badly against the Denver Broncos last game, but the Broncos defense is excellent. The Chargers have a lot of injuries and that has led to them being weaker than expected. Still, this is a team with good skill position talent and they play very quickly. In neutral play situations, the Chargers are first in the NFL in tempo.

The Seattle Seahawks defense looked good last weekend against Arizona. I'm still not convinced they are a good defense though. For the season overall, Seattle is 30th out of 32 teams in yards per play allowed. The Seahawks have given up 27 points or more in 4 of their last 5 games. 

The LA Chargers defense is just 26th out of 32 teams in YPP allowed. Seattle's offense has been much better than expected with Geno Smith playing some excellent football at quarterback. He has good wide receivers and the Chargers secondary is below average. 

I think both teams do their fair share of scoring here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Denver Broncos might have the best defense in the NFL. It is certainly a top three defense in the NFL. Denver is giving up only 4.5 yards per play this season (2nd in the NFL). The Broncos are well balanced with a strong defensive line and a great secondary as well.

The New York Jets have a star rookie in Sauce Gardner. The Jets are a top 10 run defense in the NFL again this year too. 

Denver's offense has been an absolute mess. I don't see them fixing it right away. The Broncos have only seen one of their games so far this year go higher than 35 points total. Two of their games have gone into overtime too.

The weather forecast is key here as well. The forecast for Sunday afternoon calls for sustained winds of 20 mph with gusts to 38 mph during the game. There is a 30 percent chance of showers as well. This kind of weather makes both teams far more conservative. I expect a lot more running and less deep passes. That is a boost for the under.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Cincinnati Bengals offense finally got rolling last weekend in New Orleans. Joe Burrow threw for 300 yards and easily had his best game of the season thus far. Chase caught two touchdowns. Higgins practiced in full on Friday and probably will be back for the Bengals here.

The Atlanta Falcons already have a weak secondary, and now they are badly banged up in the secondary. Casey Hayward, their best corner, is on the injured list and will miss this game. Dee Alford was expected to step in and get playing time at corner, but he is now out with an injury too. AJ Terrell is playing through an injury as well, and his numbers this year have been very poor. The Bengals passing attack should have a lot of success in this game.

The Bengals defense started the season playing great, but injuries are really slowing them down of late. DJ Reader is a fantastic run stuffer and he is out. Logan Wilson is easily their best linebacker and he will miss this game too. Josh Toupou is out at DT as well. 

Atlanta is a very good running team and I think they will break some big gainers on the ground as New Orleans did last weekend against Cincinnati. 

This total has edged up, but it hasn't gone up enough.

Take the over.