Sports Picks & Predictions

*3 Star Play on Thunder* The Oklahoma City Thunder have been resting up and getting ready for game one. New Orleans had to play in the play in spot twice. They just played late Friday night against Sacramento.

A little less than 48 hours later, the Pelicans will travel to Oklahoma City to take on the #1 seeded Thunder in game one. There are loads of ATS angles that strongly support taking teams who are at home and rested in game one. That angle went 4-0 ATS yesterday as well. 

Zion Williamson is out for this one. Without Williamson, Oklahoma City blasted New Orleans by more than 20 on the road in the middle of the season. The Thunder are the top seed, but they have been doubted by a lot of people. I like their young collection of players. Even if the Pelicans give them some trouble in this series, I think this is a good spot for the Thunder.

Take Oklahoma City. 

*3 Star Play Over* These are two teams who have nothing to play for at this point. In the very late regular season contests between two teams with nothing to play for, the over has been a really good bet in the last 15 years in the NBA. 

In the last three games of the year, when the home team has a win percentage of 50% or less and the road team has a win percentage of 57% or less, the over is hitting at about 57% in the last 15 years.

The Rockets haven't played a game where the combined total fell below 219 in any of their last 7 games. Six of the seven have been 223 points or higher.

There will be a lot of guys sit out, but I expect the two defenses to put very little effort in here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* These teams played last night and the Clippers absolutely smashed the Suns. The final score wasn't indicative of how the game went at all. They coasted after getting a massive early lead.

The Suns have held 6 of their last 9 opponents to 106 points or fewer. The Clippers have scored 108 points or fewer in 6 of their last ten games. The Suns have scored 105 points or fewer in six of their last eight games.

Both teams are battling for position in the Western Conference playoff standings. The Suns really need wins to get up to sixth. The Clippers need to hold fourth.

These late season regular season games between two good teams have been great to under bettors in the last 15 years in the NBA.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Heat* The Miami Heat have always been a good road team ATS under Erik Spoelstra. I view him as one of the best coaches in the NBA. Miami goes on the road here with a lot to play for. The Heat actually have a favorable schedule down the stretch, and they absolutely still have a shot to get up to the 6th seed in the Eastern Conference if they get hot late. That would keep Miami out of the play in tournament. That is definitely a high priority for the team.

Atlanta is without Trae Young. The Hawks have been an inconsistent team. Atlanta though has far less to play for right now. They will finish in either the 9th or 10th spot in the Eastern Conference standings. They are heading for a play in position no matter what. 

Miami's upside is clearly higher than Atlanta, especially with the Hawks without Young. I trust Miami to show up with a good effort in a crucial game for them.

Take the Heat. 

*3 Star Play Under* The LA Clippers host the Cleveland Cavs in a rare early Sunday start in Los Angeles on Sunday afternoon. 

Both of these teams have had a good season up to this point. They are also both fighting for playoff positioning. 

This time of the year in the NBA, there can be some games that mean almost nothing to teams. There are also some games that mean a bunch to both teams. This is an example of a game that means a lot to both teams.

These two both prefer to play at a slow pace. There shouldn't many transition buckets in this contest. 

The Clippers have stepped up their defense in recent weeks, but their offense has been subpar. The Clippers have scored 108 points or fewer in five of their last eight games. They will be without Kawhi Leonard again in this one.

These late season regular season games between two good teams with plenty to play for have trended strongly toward the under in the long run.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Denver Nuggets and LA Clippers both have a lot to play for as far as positioning in the standings heading down the stretch of the regular season. The Western Conference standings are bunched tightly together. The Nuggets are tied with the Timberwolves at the top and they are both just one game ahead of the Thunder. The Clippers have been dropping and are still in danger of dropping out of the top four.

Late season games between two teams with this high of a win percentage have been great to under bettors. In fact, games with a total of 220 or higher with high win percentage teams late in the season are above 60% to the under.

Kawhi Leonard will miss this game and Jamal Murray is a game time decision. I expect both defenses to be highly motivated.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Cavs and Denver Nuggets are both bottom seven in the league in tempo for the season. They are also both top ten in the league in defensive efficiency for the season overall.

Jamal Murray is a big offensive catalyst for the Nuggets. Denver has been struggling on offense without him. In their last two games, Denver has scored 97 and 98 points against the Suns and the Timberwolves.

Murray is listed as questionable for this game, but Michael Malone made it sound like on Saturday that Murray isn't ready to play quite yet and the team wants to play it safe with him.

The Cavs have had some of the lower scoring games in the league this year. 

This is a late season game between two teams with a very good record. These games have been great to under bettors in the last 15 years in the NBA. This is also an early start on Sunday and those have been solid unders in the long run.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Denver Nuggets have consistently been one of the slowest paced teams in the NBA this year. They are also 10th in the NBA in defensive efficiency. They are a great offensive team too, but their games have been lower than many expected because of the improved defense and a slower tempo.

Phoenix plays at about the league average in tempo. They are 13th in defensive efficiency for the year. 

This is a very late season game that means a lot to both teams. There are very strong under angles in the NBA for games between two teams with win percentages above 55% late in the regular season. 

Denver is now in the top spot in the Western Conference standings. The Nuggets are just ahead of Oklahoma City and Minnesota. 

Phoenix is tied for the Kings in 7th/8th, but they are only one game behind the Pelicans in the 5th spot. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Indiana Pacers have been an under machine of late until last night. Indiana actually ranks top ten in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last ten games. The Pacers lost a wild shootout against the Lakers last night, and I think they will give a better defensive effort here. 

The LA Clippers are 26th in the NBA in tempo in the last ten games. They have made a concerted effort to slow the pace down in recent weeks. The Clippers are off a bad defensive performance in a 121-107 loss to the 76ers.

This is a late season game between two teams with a winning record and with a high total. This has been a very strong system to the under in the last decade in the NBA. This game means plenty to both teams.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Milwaukee Bucks have been a different team under Doc Rivers. Milwaukee has slowed the pace down. Overall, they have improved at least somewhat on defense as well. Milwaukee's offense is only 18th in efficiency in the last 5 games though.

Middleton is expected back for this game for the Bucks. Giannis is listed as questionable with a hamstring injury. Middleton back is a positive, but it might take him some time to get back in the swing of things.

Phoenix is playing at a slightly slower than league average pace. The Suns are a little above average for the year in defensive efficiency.

This is a very early Sunday game. It's a noon local start time. Early Sunday unders have done very well in the NBA in the past 15 years. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New Orleans Pelicans are much better on defense than most believe. They are a team that is middle of the pack in tempo in the NBA. 

Atlanta is without Trae Young here. Without Young, Atlanta is a completely different team without Young. They are better defensively, and they are far worse on offense. Additionally, Atlanta is playing at a much slower pace. In Atlanta's last seven games (the games without Young) they are 23rd in the NBA in tempo. In those seven games, Atlanta is third in the NBA in defensive efficiency too. 

I think this total is too high given the situation for Atlanta and the underrated nature of the Pelicans defense.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play on Warriors* To say that the Golden State Warriors were embarrassed in their last game is an understatement. They lost 140-88 at Boston in that last game. The Celtics are a great team, but Golden State had been playing well and this is a very proud veteran team. They didn't take losing in that fashion well.

Golden State is expected to have Andrew Wiggins back in the lineup for this one. Wiggins is an underrated piece for this team. He's an excellent defender and a solid scoring option to go along with the other elite shooters Golden State has around the floor. 

Giannis is questionable for this game. The Achilles injury is a really tricky one and if he does try to play here, he should be less than 100%. Middleton is also out for the Bucks, and he is a key part of the Bucks offense too. 

Golden State is the more rested team, and they are anxious to get back on track. I like this situational spot for the Warriors.

Take Golden State. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Milwaukee Bucks are clearly playing differently with Doc Rivers as their head coach. They have slowed the pace down and they have been playing much better defense.

Milwaukee ranks 26th in the NBA in pace in the last five contests. The LA Clippers rank just 21st, so they are pretty slow paced as well.

The Bucks are first in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last five games. The Clippers are 13th. 

Milwaukee's games were totaled extremely high with Coach Griffin, but Rivers and the Bucks are playing differently. 

The Clippers are without Russell Westbrook and they could be fatigued here after playing on Sunday as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Pacers* The Indiana Pacers were absolutely blown away by the Pelicans in their last game. This Pacers team has been pretty solid this year, and they haven't been on the receiving end of blowouts often, especially when Tyrese Haliburton has been healthy. The crazy part about last game is Haliburton was held scoreless. 

San Antonio is coming off a stunning win over Oklahoma City. The Spurs have been consistently terrible and have the worst record in the Western Conference. This is a difficult spot for the Spurs. 

The Pacers beat the Spurs by 41 points in their first meeting. I would expect a focused Pacers team here to bounce back.

Take Indiana. 

*3 Star Play on Wizards* The Washington Wizards aren't a good team, but they have actually played better away from home. This isn't a bet I'm excited to make, but the situation and the systems say it is one that holds value.

The Thunder are coming off a big win over the Clippers last night. That was the huge game for them and they put out a huge effort. This is a letdown spot. 

Non-conference road underdogs getting 12 points or more and less than 45% of the bets are 101-60 ATS (60.5%) in the last 161 in the NBA. 

I'll grab the big amount of points here.

Take Washington. 

*3 Star Play on Bulls* The Atlanta Hawks are 17-36 ATS this season. The Hawks aren't trustworthy. They are laying four points here against a Chicago Bulls team that is a far better defense.

This game means a lot to both teams because they are battling for positioning in the playoff standings (9th and 10th spot). 

The Hawks have been particularly bad when laying points, and I don't think they should be laying this many points against a Chicago team that has played better basketball of late. 

I'll take the points. 

Take Chicago. 

*3 Star Play on Pelicans* The LA Clippers are in a difficult spot here. The Clippers had a long 11 day road trip that just ended. The best players on the Clippers roster played heavy minutes the last couple games as well. Now, they come home and play their 4th game in six days.

New Orleans has been playing really good basketball. The Pelicans are playing only their 2nd game in the last five days. They have won three straight games and all of their key players should be without minutes restrictions here.

The Pelicans are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings between these two teams. Grab the points here.

Take New Orleans. 

*3 Star Play Under* Both the Timberwolves and the Thunder rank in the top five in the NBA in defensive efficiency for the season and for the last ten games. These two teams are winning with their defenses. 

Both of these teams are coming off ugly losses. Detroit beat OKC in a stunner on Sunday. Minnesota lost to the Spurs on Saturday. 

These teams are tied at the top of the Northwest Division. This games means a lot to both teams. In the NBA, the long term trends strongly suggest that more important games where both teams are highly motivated leads to more unders.

In the last five times these two teams have played each other- four of those games have stayed under the total. 

The intensity should be high here, and I like this one to stay under the total. 

*3 Star Play on Orlando* The Memphis Grizzlies are coming off two wins and feeling good about themselves. This is still a very shorthanded and offensively challenged Memphis team though. The Grizzlies are dead last in the NBA in offensive efficiency on the season. They are without both Ja Morant and Desmond Bane. Those are their top two offensive players. 

Orlando is coming off a blowout at the hands of Cleveland. The Magic have had several days to think about that game.

Road teams who are good (above 50% win percentage) coming off a blowout loss have been fantastic bets in the NBA in the last 15 years. The Magic fit the spot here. 

Orlando is healthier now with Franz Wagner back in the lineup. Wagner can take over the game.

Take Orlando to bounce back here.

*3 Star Play on Cavs* The Cleveland Cavs have won 7 straight games. It has been their defense that has led the way through the streak. Cleveland is playing the best defense in the NBA of late. 

Miami's Cole Anthony tweaked his ankle on Sunday. They said he should be ok, but it wouldn't be a surprise if he misses this game or plays fewer minutes. Franz Wagner is the team leader and he came back from injury on Sunday. There's a chance he'll be sat out here on a back to back scheduling spot. If he does play, I think his minutes will be watched closely. 

Orlando is in a tough scheduling spot. The Magic have been playing a bunch lately, and the Cavs are clearly the more rested team here.

Take Cleveland. 

*3 Star Play Under* Even in today's NBA, this is a very high total. The Indiana Pacers are without star Tyrese Haliburton and they haven't looked like the same team without him. With Haliburton, the Pacers are first in the NBA in offensive efficiency on the season. In the last three games without him, they have been a bottom ten team in the NBA in efficiency on offense. 

The Pacers have also played a bit slower without their floor general leading the way. The Pacers backups have been solid on defense.

The Utah Jazz have shot the ball extremely well their last couple games. This is an average team offensively for the year, and regression is likely coming for them.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Both Orlando and Miami are in the bottom ten in tempo in their last five contests. Both Orlando and Miami are also in the bottom ten in the NBA in offensive efficiency in that time span.

This is a divisional contest where the two teams are fighting in the standings- right now they are even. 

Orlando is without Wagner, their leading scorer, in this contest. Jimmy Butler is expected to miss this game for the Heat too. Tyler Herro is doubtful as well. That is some serious scoring threats likely to be out for this one.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play on Minnesota* The Minnesota Timberwolves have lost two straight games. They haven't lost three straight this year, and I don't think they'll do it here either. 

Good teams bouncing back on the road has been a great angle in the NBA in the last 15 years. The Timberwolves fit that in every way. Minneosta has the best record in the Western Conference. They are first in the NBA in defensive efficiency. Minnesota is a deep team with several different guys who can take over a game.

Houston has been good at home this year. The Rockets are a decent team. Still, their very best is clearly quite a bit lower than the Timberwolves very best.

I think we'll see the Timberwolves respond here with a strong effort.

Take Minnesota. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Denver Nuggets are clear favorites here, and Denver is the second slowest paced team in the NBA. Golden State is just 13th in the league in tempo. The Warriors don't play as quickly as they did a few years ago.

This is a really high total for the projected pace here. Earlier this year these two teams met, and the total in that game was set at 228 points. The game finished 108-105. 

Christmas Day unders have done very well in the NBA in the long run. That has been especially the case in early day games. This one is a rare 12:30 pm local time tipoff in Denver.

Both of these two rank in the top ten in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last five games.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Portland Blazers and Utah Jazz have met three times already this year. Two of the games finished 226 and 214 points. The other game went into overtime, but at the end of regulation it was 212 points. 

Portland is last in the NBA in offensive efficiency when playing at home. The Utah Jazz are second to last in the NBA in offensive efficiency when playing on the road.

Utah plays at a league average pace and the Blazers play much slower than the league average.

The lead referee in this game is Brian Forte. The under is 530-438 in his games in his career. He's been one of the best under refs in the league.

Take the under in this divisional battle.

*3 Star Play on Heat* I like the spot here for Miami. The Heat are coming off a big loss to the Cavs at home. They have had three days to get ready for this game. Miami is in a good place injury wise compared to most teams. Erik Spoelstra is one of the best coaches in the NBA and I like this as a good spot for the Heat to get back on track.

Charlotte is just 7-13 on the season and they are only 8-12 ATS so far this year. The Hornets defense is a big weakness.

Miami was laying 6.5 last time these two met in Charlotte earlier this year. Miami coming off a poor game gives us some line value.

Take Miami. 

*3 Star Play Under* Do I really want to bet a Pacers/Bucks under? No. This number is so high though. It is the highest total in an NBA game this year. This is a strange mid afternoon start time in Las Vegas on a neutral court. It is a semifinal game in the NBA In Season Tournament. 

The players do seem to care at least a decent amount about the In Season Tournament. The Bucks defense has improved a bit in recent weeks and the team has been talking a lot about needing to step up defensively in a game like this. 

Indiana plays quickly and they are a good offense. The Pacers recent games being so high scoring has pushed this total up quite a bit.

Earlier this season these two met and the total was 239.5. This is a huge adjustment for a game being played a little less than a month later. The first game hit 250 points with good shooting numbers. 

I'll take the under here. 

*3 Star Play on Wizards* The Orlando Magic just beat the Washington Wizards 139-120 just a couple days ago. Orlando was 17 for 27 from 3 point range in that game. It's highly unlikely they can do that again. 

Orlando's stock has never been higher. The Magic are playing very well. Is this a game where Orlando is highly motivated to run up the score though? Orlando plays tomorrow in Brooklyn in what is a much bigger game and where the Magic will be underdogs. 

The spot here is great for Washington since they don't play again until December 6. A chance for revenge very soon and a chance to sell high on the Magic.

Take Washington. 

*3 Star Play on Heat* The Chicago Bulls haven't won back to back games all season. They are now being asked to do it tonight against a Heat team with quick revenge on their minds. 

Miami led much of their recent matchup against the Bulls. Chicago made a big late comeback and beat the Heat in the end.

Road teams with revenge has been a good angle in the NBA, especially when it is quick revenge. 

I trust the Heat more than the Bulls, and I like the spot.

Take Miami. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Charlotte Hornets have played a string of very high scoring teams in a row of late. The Hornets have taken on the Pacers, Mavericks, and then the Wizards twice in a row in their last four games. They now take on the New York Knicks who play a completely different style of basketball. 

New York is bottom five in the NBA in tempo. The Knicks are also top five in the NBA in defensive efficiency. The Knicks aren't likely to get intro a track meet with the Hornets here.

This is an extra early tipoff at Madison Square Garden. These Sunday early tip times have been good to under bettors in the long run in the NBA.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Blazers* The Portland Blazers are road underdogs in Sacramento tonight. Portland is coming off a loss to Memphis in their last game. Road underdogs off a loss has been a good angle in the NBA for the past decade. Portland is in that spot here. The Blazers have won in Toronto and in Detroit already this year.

Sacramento will be without De'Aaron Fox. He is one of the most important players to his team in the league. Fox is the facilitator of this offense. He's the guy they turn to in the biggest spots. The Kings deserve to be favored here, but this is too many points.

Take Portland. 

*3 Star Play on Indiana* The Indiana Pacers have looked like an elite offense early in the season. Indiana has scored 143, 125, and 106 points in their first three contests. The 125 point total was up against a very good Cleveland Cavaliers defense.

Boston is an excellent team, but they haven't been good at covering big spreads the last few seasons. If we go back to 2010, Boston is just 94-128 ATS (42.3% ATS) when laying 8 points or more. Since 2016, they are just 40.2% ATS when laying 8 points or more. 

Indiana has the offense to get a backdoor cover here even if the Celtics get out to a sizeable lead in the first three quarters. 

Boston is very good both offensively and defensively, but they are laying a huge number against an Indiana team that is far from a bottom feeder. I see the Pacers as a middle of the pack type team.

I'll grab the points. Take Indiana. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Dallas Mavericks and Memphis Grizzlies meet tonight. Dallas has had two high scoring games this year so far, but the Grizzlies are one of the best defensive teams in the league. Marcus Smart is a great defensive player, but his efficiency numbers on offense aren't likely to be very good especially with the Grizzlies shorthanded right now.

With Smart and Jackson the Grizzlies have two of the very best defensive players in the league. I do think they can matchup better defensively with Dallas than most teams. 

The Mavericks have played fast so far this season, but I think that is at least partially because of who they have played against in those two games. 

Divisional unders early in the season have been great in the past decade.

The referees in this one are a big plus for lower scoring. Two of the three refs here have a large sample size and are 54.4% and 55.7% to the under in their career.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New Orleans Pelicans and Memphis Grizzlies square off in a nice divisional contest in their first game of the new season for both teams. 

Early in the NBA season the under has typically cashed a bit more frequently than the over in the past 20 years. The angle is much stronger when it is a divisional game. The higher the posted total the stronger the angle has been. 

This is a high total because games between these two are typically pretty fast in pace. Both of these teams were top 6 in defensive efficiency last year. 

Marcus Smart is a good add for the Grizzlies team. Without Ja Morant, the Grizzlies are without their offensive star. Smart is an excellent defender though. Jaren Jackson Jr. is one of the best defenders in the NBA.

Herb Jones is a strong defender for the Pelicans. The Pelicans slowed their pace down last year on the whole to a league average. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Game two went over the total because both teams shot the ball lights out. It still only finished at 219 points. The Heat made 17 three pointers and the Nuggets shot 52% from the floor. Miami scored a ridiculous 1.291 points per possession and the Nuggets scored an above average 1.241 points per possession. 

The pace of the game was a very slow 86.5 possessions. Miami has clearly decided to try their best to slow the pace of this series down. It worked in game two. They'll likely do it again here, and I don't think we can assume the shots will keep falling at this rate either.

This is pivotal game for both teams. It was assumed the Nuggets were going to roll to a win after game one and the first half of game two. Denver did some sleepwalking on defense in the fourth quarter of Game 2. I wouldn't think that will happen again. The Heat are an above average defense and they have decided to let Jokic score and try to cut down on his assists.

I like this one to be a tighter lower scoring game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Boston Celtics have gotten back in this series with their defense. Boston has turned up the pressure defensively. Miami is an above average defensive team, and for the majority of the season they were a below average offense.

In Game 5, the game finished at just 207 points despite the two teams shooting the ball well. In fact, they averaged 1.25 and 1.115 points per possession in that game. The pace was just 87.5 possessions in that game. That was the slowest paced game in the series.

In the NBA playoffs, as the games get bigger the pace generally slows down. The stakes are massive for this game. Boston is in a win or go home spot, and yet you could argue the pressure has shifted back onto Miami. They don't want any part of this series getting evened up at 3 and going back to Boston. No NBA team has blown a 3-0 series lead. They certainly don't want to be the first.

This total has been adjusted down a bit, but I don't think it is enough. This should play out like a game where both teams feel their backs are up against the wall in a must win spot. 

Malcolm Brogdon is banged up for the Celtics and Gabe Vincent is injured for the Heat too. Those guys had been key offensive contributors down the stretch.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Miami* The Boston Celtics came into the Conference Finals round as a -110 favorite at many books to win the NBA Championship. How did this team get to be rated so highly? Their coach is clearly in above his head, and the team has multiple times just completely shut it down and quit in playoff games this season. 

Boston has more talent than Miami, but it hasn't been nearly a big enough edge. The Celtics are at a massive coaching disadvantage, and their team chemistry clearly isn't even close to level with Miami. 

Caleb Martin's emergence as a tremendous player for the Heat has taken them to the next level of late. Gabe Vincent has been excellent as well. Jimmy Butler is the best player on the court in this matchup.

Of course it is possible Boston could show some heart and rise up for a game. If they had a better coach or this game were at home I would lay off here. Given the situation, I have to bet Miami. The Heat should be ready to finish this one at home and get in plenty of rest.

Erik Spoelstra might be the best coach in the NBA. His teams are 39-20 ATS in the playoffs dating back to 2020. Going back to 2012, his teams are at 60% ATS in the postseason.

Take Miami. 

*3 Star Play on Miami* Erik Spoelstra is one of the best coaches in the NBA. Spoelstra has consistently helped his team peak at the right time. He is a playoffs coach. Jimmy Butler gets a lot of praise and it is well deserved regarding his playoff performances, but Spoelstra doesn't get enough credit for how he has his teams ready to play when the stage is bigger. 

Dating back to 2011, Spoelstra's teams are 59% ATS in the playoffs. He puts his team in a great position to win games. 

Boston clearly has the more talented team, but the Celtics just lost two games at home to the 76ers last round. They are an inconsistent team this season. The Heat went to Milwaukee and won two games in Round One. They also won at MSG last round. 

Miami is the more rested team here. The Celtics had to play a Game 7 on Sunday. Well rested teams have been good in Game One of an NBA playoff series over the last decade. 

I'll grab the points. 

Take Miami. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Miami Heat host the New York Knicks in Game 6. The Heat have a chance to finish off this series and go to the Eastern Conference Finals. I think there is a good chance they will do so, but I'm going to back the under here.

Game 6 and Game 7 in the NBA playoffs have been good to under bettors. The game typically slows down a bit and the defensive intensity increases even more. These are two above average defensive teams. Both coaches are well known for being good defensive minds. 

The Knicks have been a team that is prone to scoring droughts. Jalen Brunson has been consistent, but the rest of the team has been streaky shooting the basketball. The Heat have been very good offensively in the playoffs, but I still doubt that in the long run they can continue to shoot the basketball this well against good defenses.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The stats from the 76ers overtime one point win over the Celtics in Game Four are really something else. The game played to a snail's pace at 86 possessions. That's the slowest pace of any game in the NBA playoffs so far this postseason. 

Both teams shot the lights out in that game. Philly had 1.22 points per possession and Boston had 1.21 points per possession. Despite shooting the ball tremendously, the game had 214 points before overtime. Even if we assume the pace will be a bit quicker in this one (it likely will be) the teams have to shoot the ball well to get past this posted total. 

If there are 91 possessions in the game and the teams average 1.15 points per possession, that would be between 209 and 210 points. These are two top eight defenses in the league. At times Boston has shown the ability to shut the opposition completely down. I don't expect James Harden to continue to shoot the percentage he shot last game.

At 2-2 this is clearly a huge game for both teams. I expect the intensity to be there in this one.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play on Warriors* The spot here is a very good one for Golden State. The Warriors cannot afford to go down 0-2 with two losses at home. 

The Lakers had the rest advantage in game one of this series, but they no longer have that advantage. Anthony Davis played 44 minutes in game one. LeBron James played 40 minutes as well. The Warriors sat their stars quite a bit more. 

Don't be surprised if the Golden State key players play more minutes in this one. Golden State dug a hole and came back to tie it in game one only to come up a bit short.

Anthony Davis is a really talented player, but he has the tendency to be inconsistent. He's had one great game and one mediocre game in a pattern for a good while in the playoffs. He will be pretty good here, but I'm not sure he can replicate his game one performance. 

The Lakers lost by 10 and 17 in two of the three road games in Memphis. Golden State has been fantastic at home this year at 35-10. The Warriors are 40-19 ATS in their last 59 home games. 

I expect a strong performance from the home team here.

Take Golden State. 

*3 Star Play Under* Game One in this series saw the 76ers pull off a big upset in Boston 119-115. The Celtics defense in that game was very weak. I would expect a much stronger effort from Boston here. Boston is a top three defense in the NBA. They should be able to come up with a much better plan to slow down James Harden in Game two. 

Joel Embiid is doubtful to play in game two. The Sixers offense clicked beautifully in game one, but in game two I expect them to see much tougher resistance.

The pace of game one was just 91 possessions. The offensive efficiency numbers were off the charts in game one. The 76ers averaged 1.293 points per possession and the Celtics averaged 1.278 points per possession. 

Even if we assume the pace will be two possessions quicker than last game and then normalize the offensive efficiency to about 1.16 points per possession (still good numbers offensively) the total would be slightly under 216 points. 

I think the three point adjustment up in this totals number gives us some value to take the under in the second game. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* It's game seven of what has been the most exciting first round series in the NBA playoffs. Golden State shockingly was blown away at home in Game 6, so we are back to Sacramento for Game 7.

It is win or go home time for both teams. There is a bunch on the line in this one, and that usually means the defensive intensity picks up a bit more. The tempo is usually a bit slower. It will still be pretty fast in this matchup, but I think it will be a tick slower than the other games in the series. Many times in the past the refs will let them play a bit more in a game 7 as well, so hopefully we don't run into a ref crew that wants to make this all about them. 

Three of the six games in this series have stayed under this total even before they reached this critical game seven contest.

Game 7's in the NBA playoffs are 35-22 to the under in the last 57 with an average overall winning margin of about 5 points per game. 

It isn't easy to take an under between these two, but the long term systems have me on this under at a high number.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play on Warriors* The Sacramento Kings have had a great season, but I think it ends here. The Golden State Warriors have been dominant at home this year. Golden State is 40-17-1 ATS in their last 58 home games. The Warriors are now the healthier team too. De'Aaron Fox didn't score in the last quarter of Game 5, and he is at least somewhat bothered by his broken finger on his shooting hand. 

Golden State has so many different options on offense. I continue to think Andrew Wiggins is very underrated in this offense as the third scoring option. Draymond Green is a very good facilitator as well. Golden State's defense has been much better on their home floor, and they should give the Kings enough problems here.

Sacramento has to be discouraged given starting the series 2-0 only to be trailing 3-2 now. The Kings are a team on the rise for the long run, but I think they lose and fail to cover in this one. 

Take Golden State. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Milwaukee Bucks had the 4th best defense in the NBA in terms of defensive efficiency in the regular season. Miami was an average offensive team in the regular season. 

The Miami Heat have been absolutely shooting the lights out so far in this series. Miami has been torching the nets from 3 point range. Duncan Robinson is shooting 76.5% from 3 point range in this series. Jimmy Butler is shooting 53% from 3 point range in the series. Gabe Vincent is shooting 47.6% from 3 point range. Butler is fantastic and the Heat's offense has been very good, but I don't think they can keep up this ridiculous shooting. 

Milwaukee is in a win or go home situation here. The Bucks should bring the intensity in a big way here. 

Milwaukee's offense has been inconsistent and the Heat do have a strong defense. Spoelstra is a really good defensive mind.

These closeout games have been solid for under bettors in the long run, and I think the pace should slow down a bit in a game of this magnitude. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Milwaukee Bucks and Miami Heat are averaging an insane 1.244 and 1.235 points per possession in the first two games of this series. It's extremely hard to continue to shoot the ball that well, especially in the playoffs when the intensity is very high.

The Bucks and Heat are both above average defenses. Erik Spoelstra is an excellent coach, and I would expect him to have a good defensive game plan to slow down the Bucks after the Heat were awful on defense in Game Two. 

Giannis is questionable here. I do like the play whether he plays in this one or not. The Bucks have the guys to make life difficult for Jimmy Butler. 

The regular season meetings between these two teams were far lower than these two playoff games have been. I think we see some regression to the mean.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Golden State* The Golden State Warriors come home down 2-0 to the upstart Sacramento Kings. The spot screams Golden State. The price isn't cheap, but I'm going to lay it and trust the defending champs to rise up here. 

Golden State is without Draymond Green, but Green isn't the player he was a few years ago. The Warriors also have better depth than they had in some past years. I expect guys like Jordan Poole and Andrew Wiggins to have bigger games at home here. 

Golden State is 39-16-1 ATS in their home games this year. They have only lost 8 games at home this year. While this is a fairly big number to lay, the total is 240.5 and with a total that high laying 6 isn't as tough as it would be with a low totaled game.

The Kings are still a young team and the Warriors have to win this one. 

Take Golden State. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Philadelphia 76ers made 21 three pointers in Game One of this series. Brooklyn shot better than 60% for the majority of the game and still lost by a large margin. 

The pace of the game was an extremely slow 90.5 possessions. Set to a normalized points per possession figure for these two, a game at that pace should finish with about 206 or 207 points total. The first game was abnormally high because of the white hot shooting in the first half.

I'm going to bet that the shooting here cools off. These are both above average defenses and I think there will be some good adjustments made. 

I think this total is a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Phoenix Suns have a very good team, and they are good at dictating the pace with Chris Paul running the show. Paul's teams have tended to like to play in the halfcourt more than not. The Suns this year are the same way. They are an above average defensive team too.

Paul George is out for the Clippers, and he is primarily an offensive star. Kawhi Leonard is a defensive superstar and he should be able to make the Suns stars take some difficult shots here. Tyronn Lue is a good defensive minded coach too.

This total is the same it was earlier this month when these two played in the regular season. This game means much more.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This is technically the first game of the playoffs with the play in tournament now complete. 

The Brooklyn Nets and Philadelphia 76ers square off here. The Nets have slowed their pace down drastically late in the season. They rank 27th out of 30 teams in the NBA in tempo in their last 15 games. Philadelphia ranks 30th in tempo in that time frame. This game should be played in the halfcourt. 

Game one in the NBA playoffs tends to be a bit of tighter game with slower tempos to begin with. Early start times have been positive for under bettors through the playoffs and even more so in round one of the NBA playoffs.

The intensity should be up in this one, and I think the open shots will be tougher to come by than normal.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Thunder* The Oklahoma City Thunder have been proving people wrong all year long. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a superstar leading the Thunder all the way. In my opinion, SGA is the best player on the floor in this game. That is especially the case with Anthony Edwards banged up right now.

Minnesota gets Rudy Gobert back in this one, but there are clearly major chemistry problems with Gobert and the rest of the team. Minnesota isn't likely to get the amazing three point shooting from Mike Conley and company that they did in the Lakers game (at least in the first 3 quarters). The Timberwolves are an inconsistent team that actually enters this game not playing particularly well late in the season. 

The Thunder have covered the spread in 57% of their games this year. I think this game goes right down to the wire, so I'll take the points.

Take Oklahoma City. 

*3 Star Play on Jazz* The Boston Celtics have been one of the worst teams in the NBA the last few years when they are laying a big number. Boston is 50-73 ATS (40.7% ATS) as a favorite of 8 points or larger since the 2016-2017 season. When it has been against a team with a losing record straight up, Boston is just 39-67 (36.8% ATS) when laying 8 points or more.

Utah still can make the Western Conference playoffs with a good stretch here at the end of the season. They have plenty to play for in a spot like this. 

Boston is coming off a 140-99 epic blowout win over the Bucks in Milwaukee last night. It's a quick turnaround here, and no one could blame the Celtics for just wanting to get out with a win in this one. This isn't a good spot for Boston.

I'll grab the points here.

Take Utah. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Phoenix Suns are expected to get Kevin Durant back in the lineup tonight. Durant is a fantastic scorer, but he hasn't played in a long time. Often these stars are a little rusty when they first come back, and Durant won't play his normal amount of minutes.

The Minnesota Timberwolves have been playing some very good defenses. They held a high flying Sacramento Kings offense to 115 points. The game before that they had allowed only 96 points to Golden State. Minnesota's tempo has been slower in recent games than it was in the earlier part of the season.

This game matters to both teams. They are battling for position in the standings. The Western Conference playoff race is tight as can be for seeding, and we are coming down to the wire. The effort should be here in a game like this.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Denver Nuggets host the Philadelphia 76ers in a game between two teams who have had a great season, but should continue to try to keep winning to help with the seeding in the playoffs. 

These late season games between two good teams have been very good under angles in the past 15 years in the NBA. In fact, two teams over 60% in win percentage late in the year squaring off has been a 56% plus angle to the under during that game. 

In this one, Philadelphia now narrowly has the slowest pace of any team in the NBA over the last ten games. The Nuggets are 26th in tempo so they don't like to push the tempo either. The 76ers are third best in the NBA in defensive efficiency.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Los Angeles Lakers host the Chicago Bulls in a game that means a lot to both teams when it comes to the playoff standings. 

The Lakers have been playing better basketball of late. LeBron James is questionable for this game. If he does return it would likely be on a minutes restriction and he isn't likely to be in top form right away. The Lakers defense has been very good of late. Los Angeles is 5th in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last ten games. They have also drastically slowed their pace down from early in the year. They are now playing at a league average tempo.

The Bulls are dead last in the NBA in tempo in their last ten games, and it isn't very close. Chicago is averaging just 94.8 possessions per game in their last ten games. They are also a solid 10th in defensive efficiency.

This is an early game in Los Angeles on a Sunday. The Sunday early games in the NBA have been very good under wagers for the last decade.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play on Rockets* The Memphis Grizzlies get Ja Morant back for this one. They will not have Dillon Brooks, Steven Adams, or Brandon Clarke. Morant is a great player, but after a long break and major off the court issues this could be a bit strange from a team chemistry standpoint. Memphis is a very talented team, but they are far from 100 percent and it could take some time for Morant to get back into the flow.

The Houston Rockets have actually been much more competitive of late as they have gotten healthier as a team.

In game 67 or later of the season- A team with an ATS win percentage of 43% or lower (Houston) against a team with a ATS win percentage of 45% or higher (Memphis) is 265-200 ATS (57% Wins) dating back to 2006. This one fits the system.

Take Houston. 

*3 Star Play on 76ers* The Chicago Bulls have typically played pretty well against subpar teams, but they haven't been good when they step up in class. Chicago is 9-19 ATS in their last 28 games vs. a team with a win percentage of 60% or higher. They are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.

The Philadelphia 76ers are really playing some good basketball of late. Philadelphia is 22-9 ATS in their last 31 home games. They are playing excellent defense of late. Joel Embiid is playing some of the best basketball of his career.

The 76ers lost the last time these two played. Philadelphia is 8-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings against the Bulls. I like them to bounce back from this rare SU and ATS loss the last time these two played.

Take Philadelphia. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Denver Nuggets are coming off back to back losses to the Bulls at home and then at the Spurs. Denver really needs a bounce back here. 

The Brooklyn Nets have a completely new look. They do play pretty fast, but they have been playing good defense. Brooklyn is first in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last five games. Brooklyn is also 27th in the NBA in offensive efficiency in their last five games. 

Denver is 30-5 at home, and I would expect an improved defensive effort from this team after giving up 128 to the Spurs in their last game.

This is an early start in the Western Conference. It is also a Sunday early game and those have been good under wagers in the last 15 years in the NBA.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Denver* The Toronto Raptors have been bad on the road all year. Who is an elite home team? The Denver Nuggets. Denver is 29-4 at home this year. They are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 home games. 

Denver has an excellent home court advantage with a good fan base and the excellent elevation advantage. Toronto went to overtime in their last game on Saturday. The Raptors aren't a particularly deep team anymore.

Denver is healthier than they have been in quite a while, and this Nuggets team is in great form. It's a good spot for them.

Take Denver. 

*3 Star Play Under* I like the addition of Mitchell Robinson back into the lineup for the Knicks. Robinson ranks second in defensive efficiency rating on the Knicks team of the players who average 25 minutes of more per game. Robinson is both a very good shot blocker and a good defensive rebounder.

The Knicks already play at a pace as slow as any team in the NBA. New York has had trouble with this Boston defense in their recent meetings.

Boston ranks bottom ten in the league in pace in their last ten games as well. The Celtics are expected to be without Jaylen Brown in this game. Brown is one of the keys to the offense.

This divisional contest is a big game for both teams and I like the defenses to show up strong here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Minnesota* The Dallas Mavericks are coming off a road trip and they have been very busy. They just played on February 10th and 11th in Sacramento. The game on the 11th went into overtime as well. The first game back home can be a tough spot.

Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving together is a dangerous combo for the NBA, but it could take some time for them to get everything figured out.

Minnesota has a lot of talent, and the Timberwolves are coming off an embarrassing loss last game. The Wolves are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 following an ATS loss. 

Dallas is 2-10-1 ATS laying 5.5 points or more against a non-division opponent. The Mavericks haven't been good laying points in general. The oddsmakers have set a pretty big number here against a Timberwolves team that should be pretty good with Mike Conley in the fold.

Take Minnesota. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New York Knicks travel to Philadelphia to take on the 76ers tonight. Philadelphia has a solid history of playing lower scoring games against good teams. The under is 15-3 in the last 18 games the Sixers have played against a team with a winning record.

The ref crew in this game is a combined under record of a very solid 54.03% to the under in more than 1,100 games. This is about the best ref crew you could hope for if betting an under.

The Knicks rank dead last in pace in their last ten games. The 76ers are 24th out of 30 as well. This game should be played in the halfcourt.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Nuggets* The Denver Nuggets are 25-4 at home this year. You could argue they have the best home court advantage in the NBA. They play at a high altitude in Denver which makes tired teams really struggle. The Timberwolves are playing their third game in five days. Minnesota has seen two of their last four games go to overtime as well.

Denver was blasted by Minnesota Sunday by a score of 128-98. That should motivate them here in a very quick revenge spot. Last time around Denver sat all of their stars. Now it is expected that Jokic, Murray, and Gordon will be back on the floor for the Nuggets.

Long-term one of the better ATS angles has been to back very good teams coming off an embarrassing blowout loss. That is especially the case when they are at home. 

Take Denver. 

*3 Star Play on Pacers* Indiana is coming off a tough loss to the Lakers, but the Pacers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games. 

Sacramento is expected to be without De'Aaron Fox in this game. Fox is one of the most important players on their roster. I think they will really miss his passing ability and his ability to lead the transition opportunities they count on.

The Pacers are 16-11 straight up at home and with them catching more than a full possession against a team without an All Star caliber player, I have to back the home team here.

Take Indiana. 

*3 Star Play on Magic* The Orlando Magic aren't a good team, but they have been good at covering the spread. Orlando is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 following an ATS loss. They are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games. They are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home win percentage of 60% or higher. 

The 76ers are a really good team. They aren't in a good spot here though. Philadelphia poured a lot into that win over Denver on Saturday. That was the Embiid vs. Jokic huge game. Philly did take care of business there in a 7 point win. Embiid has been a bit hobbled of late, and his minutes may be reduced here.

Orlando should be able to at least stay competitive here.

Take the Magic. 

*3 Star Play Over* Jimmy Butler is expected to be back in the lineup tonight for the Heat. Miami has had some very low scoring games of late, but those were against teams who are very good on defense. 

Orlando is a bottom six or eight defense in the NBA. The Magic have played 17 of their last 23 games above this posted total. I think the Heat will have more success offensively against this Magic defense that is especially bad at defending the paint. 

Miami's defense is a good one, but the Magic are averaging 1.211 points per possession in their last five games.  Orlando's youngsters are starting to get much more efficient on offense.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* These two teams have met twice this year. The posted total in each of the first two games was 235.5. That's about where this one should be again. We're getting several points of line value. This one is inflated due to recent results.

Atlanta's defense is league average in the last ten games. The Bulls are 10th in defensive efficiency in the last ten games. These two teams both play near the league average in tempo as well. 

These two teams both come into this game with a high fatigue factor. I think the pace will stay slower than expected here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Pelicans* The New Orleans Pelicans were embarrassed 124-98 by the Miami Heat in their last game. New Orleans is without Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram, but C.J. McCollum and Jonas Valanciunas are having very good seasons. This is a proud team that should be part of the playoffs again this season. 

The Orlando Magic are coming off a tough five game road trip. Orlando isn't good offensively, and Franz Wagner and Markelle Fultz are both questionable in this one.

Buying NBA teams off a blowout loss has been a good strategy in the long run. The Pelicans certainly fit that system, and I like them laying the very short number here.

Take New Orleans. 

*3 Star Play Under* This is a rare early game in the week for both these teams. It is Martin Luther King Jr. Day and these teams will meet in the afternoon. 

New Orleans is on a long road trip, and they are without Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson. The Pelicans frontcourt will likely have trouble with Evan Mobley and company down low on defense for the Cavs.

Cleveland still ranks as the slowest paced team in the NBA for the season overall. The Cavs are home and are the better team in this situation (injuries accounted for). Cleveland should be able to control the pace here.

Cleveland is coming off a road trip where they were worn down as well.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New York Knicks rank dead last in the NBA in tempo in the last ten games. New York is 11th out of 30 teams in defensive efficiency during that period. They are very good on the defensive glass. This is a team that typically doesn't want to get in track meet type games.

Detroit plays fast, but they are bottom ten in the NBA in offensive efficiency. The Pistons don't have that many consistent scoring options on offense.

Both of these teams rank lowly in assist percentage.

This is an early game where we could see some scoring droughts in an odd start time.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The first time Golden State and San Antonio played earlier this year the posted total was 234 points. Now it has jumped by double digits. 

Though the Warriors have had a lot of high scoring games lately, 10 of their last 12 games have gone below this total. The Spurs have had 5 of their last 6 go under this number.

This game will be played in the Alamodome with 60,000 people or so expected to be in attendance. This is a massive venue with a unique shooting backdrop. These two teams both have good shooters, but a total this high on a neutral site that is a football stadium is too high for me.

The adjustment from the first game has been too big too.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play on Bucks* The Milwaukee Bucks were embarrassed by the Hornets in their last game. In the NBA, a great long term strategy has been to back good teams coming off big losses. The Bucks certainly qualify.

Let's see the specific angle. A team with a winning percentage of 51% or higher coming off a loss of 15 points or larger.. if they are the road team in their next game they are hitting 55.3% ATS in the past 15 years. Laying 4 points or fewer (up through the underdog role) it is 56.4%. This is a large sample size.

Milwaukee is a really good team even without Middleton on the floor. The Knicks have been really inconsistent of late, and RJ Barrett is listed as doubtful for this game. 

Take Milwaukee. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Cavaliers will be without Donovan Mitchell in this game. To say that Mitchell has been a large part of the Cavs offense is a massive understatement. Mitchell has been on fire of late, and everything has been running through him. Darius Garland is also listed as questionable for this game. Raul Neto will get more minutes here, and he is a liability on offense. 

The Nuggets are 19th in the NBA in tempo. The Cavs are dead last in tempo. The Cavs are also first in the NBA in defensive efficiency. Donovan Mitchell grades out as one of the Cavs weaker defenders, but he is a top offensive performer. 

I think the Cavs offense will be inefficient here. This total is pretty high given the circumstances.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Christmas Day has become a big showcase day for the NBA. The Knicks won the early Christmas game 101-87 last year in the noon eastern start time. 

Christmas Day unders in general have done well, and the earlier starts have been excellent for under bettors. 

These guys still try their best to have a Christmas with family and friends and this is a tough spot to come in here and play a very early tipoff at Madison Square Garden after most of them likely had their family time on Christmas Eve. 

We've seen these games trend to a slower pace and less fouls. 

These two teams are 2nd and 9th in the NBA in defensive efficiency. They are 10th and 17th in offensive efficiency. 

This is a divisional rivalry game and I expect the defenses to have the upper hand.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Dallas Mavericks and Houston Rockets meet in a divisional matchup tonight before their break for Christmas Eve. The Mavericks must play again on Christmas afternoon. 

The final day before break at Christmas has been good to under bettors in the long run. These players do want to get home and have some time with family as much as they can.

Even in normal situations, I like the under in this game. Divisional unders with a total of 218 or higher in the first 70 games of the season are 54.5% since 2006. 

All three referees in this game have been good under referees. That is especially the case for Brian Forte who has seen 54.5% of his games in his career stay under. 

These two both rank in the bottom six in tempo in the NBA. Houston is 27th in offensive efficiency in the last ten games too.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Cavaliers have played 14 straight games that have finished under this posted total. Cleveland has played 16 straight games that have stayed under this total in regulation. 

Cleveland is playing at the slowest pace in the NBA by a wide margin in their last 15 games. In fact, they are playing 2.5 possessions per game on average slower than the second slowest team in the league during this last 15 game span. They also have been the best defense in the NBA during that time. Cleveland is giving up just 1.043 points per possession. Mobley is a defensive beast, and the Cavs have really bought into their defensive style this season. 

Indiana is a higher scoring team, but they are middle of the pack in the NBA in defensive efficiency. The Pacers are actually only 25th in offensive efficiency. They play quickly though and have scored points largely because of volume. I don't think the Cavs will get into a track meet with them. 

The Cavs are the much better team, and I like their defense to control this one. Divisional unders have fared much better than non-divisional unders long term in the NBA.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Cavs have the best defense in the NBA so far this year. They are giving up just 1.066 points per possession. In their last ten contests, Cleveland is allowing only 1.024 points per possession. Cleveland is also playing at the slowest pace of any team in the NBA. The Cavs are averaging just 94.7 possessions per game in their last ten games.

Donovan Mitchell is questionable and he missed the shoot around for this game. He's obviously a huge part of the Cleveland offense. Kevin Love is out for this game. 

Sacramento is a high scoring team, and that's why the total is this high. The Kings have been even higher at home though, and the Cavs have been good at dictating the tempo. 

Cleveland's last 11 games have stayed under this total in regulation. Only one game went over this number and that was an overtime contest.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play on Suns* Chris Paul is expected back in the lineup for this one. The Phoenix Suns have been playing great basketball overall, but they are coming off one bad performance against the Dallas Mavericks, and I think this is a good spot for them to bounce back.

Boston is an excellent team, but the Celtics are due for some regression on offense. Boston is averaging 1.20 points per possession this year. That is insanely high, and on a spot here where they are playing their third road game in four days, I think some regression could come here.

Phoenix is 12-2 at home so far this year. That includes wins over Golden State twice. The Suns are getting healthy and would love nothing more than to trip up Boston in what is a bad situational spot for the Celtics.

Take Phoenix. 

*3 Star Play on Milwaukee* The Milwaukee Bucks rested Giannis and Jrue Holiday on Saturday. They should be back in this game. In fact, Jim Owczarski who covers the Bucks tweeted that Holiday and Giannis are both off the Bucks injury report as of Sunday night. This appears to be the first game where Khris Middleton, Giannis, and Jrue Holiday will all start together. The Bucks are finally getting healthier.

Orlando doesn't have much depth at all. The Magic are also without Suggs, Carter, Harris, and Bamba right now due to injury. The Magic have been terrible of late. Orlando has won just one of their last ten games. They have lost five of those games by 13 points or more. That includes a 17 point home loss to the Hawks and a 30 point home loss to the 76ers.

The Bucks are still the best team in the East. I like them to cruise to a big win here.

Take Milwaukee. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Philadelphia 76ers are 27th in the NBA in tempo. The Cleveland Cavs are 29th in the NBA in tempo. This should be one of the slower paced games you'll see in the NBA regular season. 

Cleveland is first in defensive efficiency in the league when playing at home. The Cavs are 4th in defensive efficiency overall and the 76ers are third. A contest between two teams who work hard on the defensive end. 

The referee crew here is a big positive for the under. Two of the best under refs in the NBA are in this game tonight. Both Davis and Twardowski are nearly 54% to the under in their careers.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play on Bulls* The Bulls have had two days of rest coming into this game. The Pelicans have zero days of rest. New Orleans is also playing its 5th game in 7 days. 

Zion Williamson will miss this game with an injury. Williamson is such a key to the upside for this New Orleans team. 

New Orleans just went to Chicago and won last week. The Bulls are now the healthier team and much better rested team. The script is flipped from last week. Situationally, this is a really good spot for the Bulls.

Take Chicago. 

*3 Star Play on Bucks* The Milwaukee Bucks have been playing like the best team in the NBA so far this year. This is a team led by arguably the best player in the NBA in Giannis. They have some great pieces around him too. I like their identity as a defensive minded team that takes care of the basketball.

Milwaukee is coming off their first loss of the season. They were thumped by the Hawks in Atlanta on Monday. They had a day off and now look to bounce back against a Thunder team that plays hard, but they are badly outmanned here. 

This has been a good angle in the NBA in the past- taking good teams off blowout losses. The Bucks have been great in this spot in the past.

Take Milwaukee. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Charlotte Hornets aren't the same offense without LaMelo Ball and Gordon Hayward. Those guys really bump up the efficiency numbers on offense. Terry Rozier is doubtful here too, and he and Ball are the two who really push the pace. 

Memphis has played poor defense overall this year, and that has led to some disappointing outcomes. They were much better defensively last game, and their coaching staff is really working on improving the defensive end.

I think this total would be appropriate if Rozier, Ball, and Hayward were all healthy, but they aren't. With these guys out, I believe this total is a few points high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Celtics* The Cleveland Cavaliers are a good team. Cleveland should have a nice season. They are still at a talent disadvantage when they take on the Boston Celtics. Cleveland is expected to be without Darius Garland again in this game. Garland is a key loss for this group.

Boston led most of the way, but blew it and lost in overtime at home to Cleveland just a few days ago. The Celtics are back and looking for some road revenge here. Grant Williams is back in the lineup for the Celtics and his presence will help.

The Celtics have been road warriors in recent seasons, and we should get full effort from Boston in this situational spot.

Take Boston. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Milwaukee Bucks are first in the NBA in defensive efficiency so far this year. Milwaukee has a ton of length all over the floor, and I would expect them to be a major problem for opposing offenses throughout the season. 

Milwaukee has been playing slower so far this year as well. In their first three games, Milwaukee is playing at a tempo slower than NBA league average. If that continues, I think the Bucks could have some much lower scoring games than expected. Their defense against the Nets last game was excellent.

The Knicks have been good so far this year, but this is a completely different matchup that should trouble them. New York is no faster than league average in tempo either.

This number is a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Bucks* The Milwaukee Bucks are my pick to win the NBA Championship this year. The Bucks come into this game extremely well rested with their last game being on Saturday. Milwaukee's roster is put together in a way where I really don't see any significant weaknesses. The Bucks have the best player in the NBA now in Giannis. They also have great outside shooters to surround him. Milwaukee has great individual defenders too. 

The Brooklyn Nets have star power, but that is all. Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant both scored 37 points in their last game against Memphis, and the Nets still lost by 10 points! Brooklyn's defense will be one of the worst in the NBA. Milwaukee moves the ball very well, and I expect them to have very little trouble putting up a big number on the Nets.

I'm going to lay the short number on the better team at home.

Take Milwaukee. 

*3 Star Play on Nuggets* The Portland Blazers are coming off a win over the Los Angeles Lakers in LA on Sunday. They return home on no rest to take on the Denver Nuggets. Denver had the day off Sunday after winning over Oklahoma City on Saturday.

The Blazers don't have nearly as much talent as the Nuggets. Damian Lillard and company are 3-0 straight up and ATS coming into this one, but I think now is a good time to sell high. Lillard is excellent, but he doesn't have enough scoring help on this team in the long run.

Portland is in a bad spot after beating the Lakers yesterday as well.

Denver is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings with Portland. 

Take Denver. 

*3 Star Play on Nuggets* The Utah Jazz went out of their way to get worse in the offseason. They got rid of Rudy Gobert, Donovan Mitchell, and even Bojan Bogdonavic. Mike Conley is the only big name left on the roster, and he isn't really a "scorer" by nature. He doesn't have many guys to set up anymore.

The Denver Nuggets are set to have a big season with Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. back healthy once again. Nikola Jokic is a superstar, and now he has help once again. Bruce Brown was a really solid add for Denver in the offseason. Jeff Green still provides some good minutes and is very versatile.

There is a huge talent gap in this one and I think the Nuggets will be anxious to get things tipped off the right way here.

Take Denver. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Boston Celtics and Philadelphia 76ers are two very talented defensive teams. Boston was the best defense in the NBA last year. I see no reason to expect them to be worse on defense this year. The Celtics have length and athleticism all over the floor.

The 76ers have an elite shot blocker down low in Embiid. P.J. Tucker is a difference maker on the defensive end as well. I expect the 76ers to do a much better than average time keeping opponents out of the lane. If the Celtics are nailing a ton of 3's here it could hurt a lot, but overall I see Boston as an inconsistent long range shooting team.

The pace should be about average in this one. The last five meetings between these two teams have seen 4 of those games finish at 211 points or lower. 

Early season unders have done very well in the NBA in the long run. That has been especially true in conference and divisional matchups.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Warriors* The Golden State Warriors are extremely well rested coming into this game. Boston has had a few days to rest now too, but they are coming off two straight very hard fought 7 game series against the Bucks and then the Heat. 

Boston is a really good team and I expect this to be a highly competitive series, but I think this is a tough spot for them. Well rested home teams in the NBA playoffs (4 days or more of rest between games) are 112-68 ATS since 2006. Golden State is in that spot here.

Boston played a very poor game in game one against Miami after their 7 game series with Milwaukee. 

Golden State is the veteran team here and while Boston's defense gets a lot of credit (they are great), this Golden State defense is excellent as well.

I'll lay the points here with the Warriors.

Take Golden State. 

*3 Star Play Under* Game 7 in Miami- it all comes down to this. The winner of this game goes to the NBA Finals. The loser of this game heads home thinking about what could have been. 

The Boston Celtics are the best defensive team in the NBA. Boston wasn't good enough defensively against Jimmy Butler in Game 6, but I expect them to make things a lot tougher on him in Game 7. Overall, Miami has really had to work very hard to get open shots in this series, and their backcourt of Lowry and Strus hasn't been good enough on offense.

The Celtics offense is inconsistent. The Miami Heat are capable of playing excellent defense with guys like PJ Tucker locking down on the perimeter. Butler is a good defensive player as well. 

The pace of the game should slow quite a bit with everything on the line. We've seen strong trends toward unders in game 7's in recent decades in the NBA. Look for the two defenses to come with max effort. 

The Celtics were just involved in a very low scoring game 7 against Milwaukee. I'll back the under again here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Dallas Mavericks and Golden State Warriors both shot the ball extremely well in Game Two. Golden State averaged 1.286 points per possession in that game. Dallas averaged 1.182 points per possession.

Last game being so high scoring has led to this total being moved up by a few points. In fact, the Warriors and Mavericks have faced off six times this year. This is the second highest posted total of the season in their matchups.

Remember, this is a playoff game that is an absolute must win for the Dallas Mavericks. For a posted total to be the second highest of six matchups between these two- that stands out to me. 

In the playoffs- Dallas has played much slower and played much better defense in their home games. The Mavericks are 5-1 to the under at home in the playoffs. 

At home in the playoffs their games are averaging just 91.42 possessions and they are allowing only 1.024 points per possession. On the road their games have averaged 94.33 possessions and they are allowing 1.184 points per possession.

Look for Dallas to slow things down some here. The Mavericks should be giving max effort on defense. 

Both of these teams do shoot the ball well and there is potential for them to light it up for 3, but with this being a must win for Dallas and the oddsmakers setting the line several points higher I like the value here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Milwaukee Bucks travel to Boston to take on the Boston Celtics in Game 7 of the hotly contested Eastern Conference Semifinals series. This has been a fantastic series with great drama and some high levels of play by each team.

It's win or go home time for both teams. These win or go home games have consistently been played at a slower pace. Why? This game means everything and teams are far more likely to slow things down and try to avoid the ridiculous turnovers. These games also bring max effort on the defensive end.

Boston and Milwaukee are arguably the two best defensive teams in the NBA. They are at least both top five defenses in the NBA. There is a ton of length on the floor in this game, and I would expect a lot of contested shots.

Could they be hitting tough jumpers? Of course it is possible, but I like the chances of the under hitting in this situation.

Four of the six games in this series so far have finished at 204 points or lower. This one is the most important game yet.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Dallas trails 3-2 in this series, so the Mavericks have to win this one to extend the series to a 7th game. The Mavericks won the first two meetings at home partially by slowing the tempo down. I expect Dallas to slow the pace down again here. The Mavericks have been better late in the season on the defensive end on their home court as well.

The pace in the last three games of this series has been an average of 92.5 possessions per game. If the teams average 1.14 points per possession (above average offensive efficiency), the game would finish at 211 points. 

Later in the series these games usually slow down. It is win or go home time and that usually brings about a slower pace and stronger defense. 

Dallas has the blueprint for winning against Phoenix. Can they do it again here? I don't know, but I do think they can set the pace enough to keep this below the total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Dallas Mavericks come home to take on the Phoenix Suns in game of this series. Phoenix leads 2-0 after they destroyed Dallas in the fourth quarter of game two. 

While Luka Doncic has been great on offense his defense has been exposed here. I do think Jason Kidd is a good coach, and I expect Dallas to have a better defensive game plan for game three. They'll try to hide Doncic on defense when they can. 

Phoenix is a very good offensive team, but they aren't this good. The Suns are averaging an insane 1.35 points per possession in this series. They shot a little over 64% from the floor in game two. The first two games of this series have gone over the total easily. 

In the regular season, all three meetings between these two teams stayed under this total. Dallas is likely to want to slow the tempo down more in this game (the Mavericks had a bottom five tempo rating this year). 

This game now has a higher posted total than any of the regular season games between these two teams. Playoff games mean more and they are usually totaled much lower than regular season games. I think there is some recency bias in this number.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play on Warriors* The Memphis Grizzlies are a good team. Memphis is still coming off a very hard fought series where they won their first playoff series in nine years though. 

The Minnesota Timberwolves played hard and were a tricky matchup for Memphis, but the Golden State Warriors are on a whole different level. Minnesota blew double digit leads in all but one of Memphis' wins in the first round series. I wouldn't expect that type of thing to happen with Golden State.

Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, and Jordan Poole form a great nucleus for the Warriors. Golden State is willing to win games with three point shooting or with their strong defense.

Memphis has less than 48 hours between games here, while Golden State had a lot of time to rest up and prepare for this one. 

I like the veteran Warriors to come out ready to go in game one.

Take Golden State. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Toronto Raptors have a really good head coach in Nick Nurse. Nurse is known for two things- 1. His adjustments throughout a series and even in a game- 2. His defensive mindset and the unique defenses he puts together. Toronto has played much better defense in games 3-5 against the 76ers. 

Joel Embiid is hurting and that overall should hurt his offense more than his defense as well. The 76ers have been slowed down quite a bit of late too with Tyrese Maxey being shut down by the Raptors in recent games. 

Toronto has been much better at home on defense in general, and they will look to dictate the tempo and slow the game down here. 

As we get deeper into the series throughout the NBA in the playoffs, we typically see a slowdown in tempo and high intensity on defense. This is an elimination game and if Toronto wins this could be all the way back to 3-3. I think both teams show up with quality defense here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This series is all tied up at 2-2. Game five in Memphis is a huge game. The Timberwolves have played the Grizzlies tough all season. 

Last game the final was 119-118. In that game, the two teams combined to shoot 33/68 (48.5%) from 3 point range. There were also 65 free throws in the game. Even with those numbers, the game edged over this total. 

As the games get more important the totals tend to on average get a little lower. If both teams shoot lights out here then this selection will lose, but if we see shooting numbers like their season averages I like this game to stay under. 

The pace of the game has been slower the last couple games in this series. As the series gets even more important the game is likely to slow down a little more.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play on Bucks* The Chicago Bulls deserve credit for going on the road and winning game two. Still, I think Milwaukee was ill prepared for that game. The Bucks seemed to be going through the motions for much of that game. Milwaukee isn't likely to do the same in this one.

Middleton is a key loss for the Bucks, but Milwaukee is still one of the deepest teams in the NBA. The Bucks bench played terribly in game two, but on the whole this is an excellent bench. The Bucks are likely to have a much better intensity on defense for this game. 

This is still the same Chicago Bulls team that has been getting beaten up on by the good teams late in the season. In fact, Chicago is now 23-49 ATS in their last 72 as a home underdog. The Bulls have regularly been blown out by the best teams in the league. They will up against a highly motivated Milwaukee Bucks team here. 

Brook Lopez has played well lately, and I think he will serve as a solid second option to Giannis. Jrue Holiday has shot the ball poorly, but he is likely to improve through the rest of the series too.

Milwaukee is 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games in Chicago.

Take Milwaukee.