Sports Picks & Predictions

MLB Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
04-17-24	Cardinals v. A's UNDER 8		3-6	Loss	-110	13 h 51 m	Show
3 Star Play Under Paul Blackburn starts here for the Oakland A's. Blackburn has a history of starting the season very strong. He has done exactly that this season. Blackburn hasn't allowed an earned run so far this season in three starts. Blackburn has been slightly better in day games than night games in his career too. Steven Matz has drastic splits in his day/night starts. Matz has a 1.41 WHIP in his night starts, but an impressive 1.17 WHIP in his day starts. Matz has a 3.40 ERA in his career in day starts. The A's are bottom eight in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. The Cardinals are bottom ten in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching. Take the under.
04-16-24	Padres -119 v. Brewers		6-3	Win	100	8 h 38 m	Show
3 Star Play on Padres ML The San Diego Padres are one of the best lineups in baseball against left handed pitching. Both Tatis and Machado are elite against left handed pitching, and they have several other smaller names who are surprisingly good against lefties. Wade Miley isn't a bad pitcher, but he also isn't a really good one by any means. Miley had a 4.65 FIP last year, and he had a .091 BABIP allowed (very lucky) in his first start this year. Dylan Cease is a bit inconsistent, but he has far better stuff and a much higher upside than Miley. The Brewers lineup has an extremely high batting average on balls in play so far this year, and I think they are due for regression. With Devin Williams out, I see these two bullpens as pretty close to the same level. The Padres offense is great in this split and they have the better starter. Take San Diego.
04-14-24	Cubs v. Mariners UNDER 8		3-2	Win	100	15 h 37 m	Show
3 Star Play Under Luis Castillo is off to a slow start, but his advanced metrics suggest he is due for some major positive regression. Castillo has a 6.89 ERA, but he has a 3.38 FIP and 3.19 xFIP on the season thus far. Castillo has pitched tremendously against this Cubs lineup in his career too. The Cubs lineup here has a poor .244 average and .299 weighted on base average against him in 99 plate appearances. Javier Assad has a 1.64 ERA in his first two starts, and he's going up agianst a Seattle lineup that ranks dead last in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching. Bill Miller is the home plate umpire here. He's a strike caller and one of the best under umpires in the majors. He consistently has very high strikeout/walk rate. Take the under here.
04-13-24	Braves -1.5 v. Marlins		1-5	Loss	-115	14 h 3 m	Show
3 Star Play on Braves -1.5 The Atlanta Braves have what I believe is the second most talented roster in the majors. They have the best lineup in baseball. Atlanta has been absolutely crushing right handed pitching this year. Atlanta has a .414 wOBA against right handed pitching so far this year. Miami is 2-12 on the year. If you had taken the Marlins opponent on the run line this year you would be a staggering 10-4 despite a lot of plus money prices on those numbers. Miami is dead last by a mile in weighted on base average against lefties. The Marlins have a .216 wOBA against lefties. No other team in the majors is lower than .244. Chris Sale isn't what he once was, but he is still a solid lefty. The Marlins should struggle against him. Max Meyer has a high upside, but he hasn't consistently been able to get out MLB hitters yet. This is a tough assignment for him. Take Atlanta -1.5.
04-10-24	Diamondbacks -133 v. Rockies		5-3	Win	100	13 h 52 m	Show
3 Star Play on DBacks ML The Arizona Diamondbacks had a season win total of 84.5 wins or so for this year. The Colorado Rockies had a season win total of 59.5 wins or so heading into the season. Arizona has a really good lineup against left handed pitching. The Diamondbacks are fourth in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties this year. They are up against Austin Gomber here. Gomber has been smashed by this DBacks lineup in the past. They have a .504 weighted on base average against Gomber in 91 plate appearances. Gomber's worst month of the season historically has been the first month of the year, and it isn't very close. He has an ERA over 6 in the first month of the season. The Rockies are one of the worst teams in baseball, and the Dbacks are laying a short enough price here for me to take the road team. Take Arizona.
04-05-24	Rays -1.5 v. Rockies		7-10	Loss	-113	4 h 17 m	Show
3 Star Play on Rays -1.5 The Tampa Bay Rays are a significantly better team than the Colorado Rockies. The Rockies will have one of the worst records in all of baseball this year. Tampa Bay is a team who has playoff hopes. Austin Gomber had a 7.05 ERA last year in his outings at Coors Field. He had an atrocious 1.593 WHIP. The Rays should hit him hard here in a game where the wind is blowing out significantly toward center field. Zack Littell has potential and he is up against a weak lineup. He'll likely get hit around some, but the bullpen coming in after him is significantly stronger than the bullpen the Rockies bullpen. Take Tampa Bay -1.5.
04-03-24	Rangers +107 v. Rays		4-1	Win	107	12 h 35 m	Show
3 Star Play on Rangers ML The Texas Rangers have Nathan Eovaldi on the mound for this one. Eovaldi has been an underrated starter for much of his career. Eovaldi has a long great history against this Rays lineup too. Eovaldi has a sparkling .167 batting average and .212 weighted on base average allowed against the Rays. The sample size is solid too with 112 plate appearances. Eovaldi has a good history in the first month of the season in general also. Aaron Civale has a 5.83 ERA in six starts in Tampa Bay. This Rangers lineup is still very solid, and I expect them to be especially good against right handed pitching. At a plus money price, I like the Rangers here with a very good starting pitcher on the mound. Take Texas.
04-02-24	Guardians +106 v. Mariners		5-2	Win	106	10 h 26 m	Show
3 Star Play on Guardians ML The Cleveland Guardians start Shane Bieber tonight. Bieber's velocity has been up in spring training and in his opener. Bieber was still good last year, but if he keeps that velocity gain he could bounce back up toward his stats from 2 and 3 years ago which were top notch. In his career, Bieber has shut down the Mariners. The Mariners lineup has a terrible .238 weighted on base average and a 29.7% strikeout rate against Bieber in his career. Luis Castillo hasn't been great in the first couple months of the season in his career. He often takes some time to get into a rhythm. The Guardians have a .328 wOBA against Castillo. At plus money, I'll take Cleveland here.
03-30-24	Twins -118 v. Royals		5-1	Win	100	14 h 11 m	Show
3 Star Play on Twins ML Joe Ryan is clearly an above average starting pitcher. Ryan has consistently been a very fast starter too. Ryan has an 8-1 record and a sparkling 2.13 ERA and an amazing 0.764 WHIP in March/April in his career. Ryan has been great against this Kansas City lineup too. He has a .153 batting average allowed and a .223 wOBA allowed in 79 plate appearances against the Royals. I like this matchup for Ryan. Seth Lugo will go up against a Twins lineup that is deep. Minnesota is very good against right handed pitching. The Twins also have a big bullpen advantage against this Royals team. I'll lay the short price. Take Minnesota.
03-28-24	Twins -114 v. Royals		4-1	Win	100	15 h 55 m	Show
3 Star Play on Twins ML The Minnesota Twins have the best and deepest roster in the American League Central. Pablo Lopez has been fantastic in recent seasons, and he is known to get off to fast starts to the season. The Twins are better against right handed pitching which is why this number is as cheap as it is, but I think they are worth the small lay here. Cole Ragans is a good pitcher and I think he'll get quite a few strikeouts. Still, he does give up hard contact, and he is prone to a big inning occasionally. The Royals bullpen is several notches worse than the Twins bullpen (even with the Twins injuries). Favorites have done well on Opening Day in the past decade in Major League Baseball. Here's the best team in the AL Central laying a small price against a Royals team that still has plenty of holes. Take Minnesota.
10-20-23	Phillies v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5		5-6	Win	100	18 h 17 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Philadelphia Phillies offense has been on fire in the postseason. They were quieted for one game yesterday, but I think they'll get going again here. Mantiply is expected to start what is basically a bullpen game. Ryne Nelson or Slade Cecconi will likely see some innings here as well. The DBacks bullpen is one of their biggest weaknesses. Philadelphia should get traffic on the bases and take advantage of those opportunities here. Christopher Sanchez starts for the Phillies. Sanchez was good this year, but he hasn't pitched since September 30th. He is a young pitcher and pitchers are creatures of habit. This is a really tough spot to put him in. Arizona was much better offensively at home this season. Chase Field's roof is expected to be open for this game with the later start. The hot weather with the roof open here really helps the ball carry well. I think this will be a higher scoring contest. Take the over.
10-11-23	Dodgers v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5		2-4	Loss	-115	20 h 6 m	Show
3 Star Play Over Lance Lynn had a 5.73 ERA and a 5.53 FIP this season. Lynn is 36 years old and is far past his prime. He is allowing more than 2 home runs per nine innings this year. Lynn has a FIP of 6.16 since pitching as a Dodger. This year Lynn has a wOBA allowed of .368 in road starts. Brandon Pfaadt had a 5.72 ERA and a 5.18 FIP on the season. Pfaadt started the playoff opener in Milwaukee too and pitched just 2.2 innings and allowed 7 hits and 3 runs. Pfaadt has a 6.46 ERA and a .379 wOBA allowed at home this year. The Dodgers lineup has been quiet in the first two games of this series, but this Dodgers lineup is still stacked. They are a top three lineup in baseball. The Dodgers have a stellar .470 wOBA against Pfaadt. Chase Field is a good hitters park. The roof is likely to be open here based on the moderate weather in Arizona for this one. That is a positive for runs to be scored. Take the over.
10-10-23	Astros v. Twins UNDER 8		9-1	Loss	-105	15 h 43 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Minnesota Twins host the Houston Astros on Tuesday afternoon. This series is tied up at 1-1. Minnesota's Target Field was slightly below average in run scoring according to MLB Park Factors. Minnesota starts Sonny Gray in this game. Gray has been consistently very good this season. Gray has pitched 26.1 innings this year and has a 2.39 ERA in the postseason. Cristian Javier wasn't very good most of this season, but he pitched his best baseball of the season in the last three starts of the regular season. Javier has a great postseason history too. Javier has thrown 32.2 innings and has a 2.20 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP in the postseason. Bill Miller is the home plate umpire for this game. He is a pitcher's best friend. He had a strikeout/walk ratio of an extremely high 3.66 this season. Take the under here.
10-03-23	Marlins v. Phillies UNDER 7.5		1-4	Win	100	20 h 33 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Philadelphia Phillies start Zack Wheeler in this Wild Card contest. Wheeler has a great 2.78 ERA and a 0.73 WHIP in six career postseason starts. He is a very consistent pitcher who has thrown his best late in the season on an annual basis. Miami's offense is much better against lefties than righties, and this is a tough matchup for them. Jesus Luzardo has electric stuff. He can occasionally give up a big inning, but he enters this game in good form. Luzardo has a 2.61 ERA and a 2.34 FIP in his last seven starts of the season. The Marlins lineup has a .246 average and .300 wOBA against Wheeler in 153 plate appearances. The Phillies lineup has only a .211 average and a ..271 wOBA against Luzardo in 83 plate appearances. Stu Scheurwater is the umpire here and the under is 112-89 in his career behind home plate. He had a strikeout/walk ratio of above 3 (very high) this season. He is a net positive for the under. Take the under.
09-29-23	Padres v. White Sox UNDER 8.5		3-2	Win	100	18 h 38 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Chicago White Sox offense has been terrible against right handed pitching all season. The White Sox are dead last in the majors in weighted on base average (.292) against right handed pitching this season. Chicago is trotting out a really weak lineup right now, and they are easily last in wOBA for the past 30 days overall as well (.281 wOBA). The San Diego Padres start Nick Martinez here. Martinez is at least an average right handed pitcher. He has been pitching well of late. I like his chances of slowing down the White Sox offense. Dylan Cease starts for the White Sox here. Cease still has elite stuff, but he has been inconsistent this year. Cease has been very good in his last three starts. He has a 1.96 ERA and a 2.00 FIP in his last three starts. Cease now faces a Padres team that won't make the playoffs and has been inconsistent all year offensively. The Padres have seen 7 of their last 8 games stay under this total. The White Sox have seen 8 of their last 10 games stay under this total. Take the under.
09-27-23	Pirates +125 v. Phillies		6-7	Loss	-100	7 h 45 m	Show
3 Star Play on Pirates ML The Pittsburgh Pirates are 8-5 in their last 13 games so they have been battling hard to the finish. They catch the Philadelphia Phillies in a bad spot here. Philadelphia clinched the top NL Wild Card spot last night They will host the first Wild Card game. The Phillies now have nothing to play for in the next few regular season games. The day after clinching we regularly see some very weak lineups put on the card. Some call it the hangover lineup in a spot like this. I think we'll see multiple big names out of the lineup. Johan Oviedo has a 2.23 ERA in his last six starts. He is pitching his best late in the season. I'll take the plus money price on the road team here. Take Pittsburgh.
09-20-23	Orioles +105 v. Astros		1-2	Loss	-100	12 h 41 m	Show
3 Star Play on Orioles ML The Baltimore Orioles start Kyle Bradish here. Bradish has been fantastic this year. He is pitching his best baseball late in the season too. Bradish has a 2.92 ERA and a 2.29 FIP in his last six starts. On the season, Bradish has a tremendous 0.98 WHIP. Cristian Javier has been a big disappointment this year, and he has been at his worst of late. Javier has a 6.99 ERA in his last 14 starts and his FIP is just 6.46 so it has been no fluke. He has just been bad. The Orioles are 41-21 since the All Star Break and they have the second best record in baseball. The Astros are clearly a very good team, but they have a big starting pitching disadvantage here. The Astros bullpen is also worn out and the Orioles have a great bullpen. Take Baltimore here.
09-18-23	Guardians -116 v. Royals		4-6	Loss	-116	13 h 46 m	Show
3 Star Play on Cleveland ML The Kansas City Royals have the second worst record in baseball. Kansas City is 48-102 on the season, and the Royals have been just 28-47 on their home field. Brady Singer has been an extremely streaky pitcher this year. He was terrible early in the year. Singer had a stretch for a while in the middle of the year where he was solid. He has been bad again of late. Singer has a 10.00 ERA and a 7.15 FIP in his last four starts. The Cleveland lineup has hit him hard in the past. He has allowed a very high .400 weighted on base average against this Guardians lineup. Cal Quantrill has come back from injury and thrown the ball very well. Quantrill has thrown 18 innings in three starts and he has allowed just three runs total in those starts since coming back from the injured list. Quantrill has held this Royals lineup to a .286 wOBA in his career. This is an early start time and I like the Guardians to pick up a win here. Take Cleveland.
09-14-23	Diamondbacks v. Mets UNDER 7.5		1-11	Loss	-105	16 h 36 m	Show
3 Star Play Under Kelly vs. Senga is a sneaky good pitching matchup here. Senga has a 2.52 ERA at home this year. Senga has a 2.72 ERA in his last 10 starts. He has allowed only 4 home runs in those 10 starts. Senga does a good job keeping traffic off the bases. Kelly has been fantastic in three of his last four starts. He has a 3.28 ERA and a 1.84 FIP in those four starts. Kelly's one poor start during that time was against the LA Dodgers. The Dodgers offense makes a lot of pitchers look bad. Bill Miller is the home plate umpire in this one. Miller is the most consistent under umpire in the majors. His strikes called percentage this year is at a ridiculously high 66.22%. His strikeout/walk ratio is at an almost unheard of 3.80. Take the under in this one.
09-12-23	Guardians +162 v. Giants		3-1	Win	162	10 h 44 m	Show
3 Star Play on Cleveland ML The Cleveland Guardians are too large of an underdog for me to pass up here. The San Francisco Giants have not played very well over the last couple months. The Giants still have a pretty weak lineup and rely on winning lower scoring close games often. Sean Manaea has a 4.21 ERA and a 4.17 FIP in the second half of the season. He's at best a mediocre left handed pitcher. Cal Quantrill has pitched great in his two games back from the injured list. Quantrill has allowed just 2 runs in 12 innings pitched in those last two contests. The price has gotten out of hand here. The Giants should be favored, but not by this much. Take Cleveland.
09-11-23	Cubs -1.5 v. Rockies		5-4	Loss	-117	8 h 56 m	Show
3 Star Play on Cubs -1.5 The Chicago Cubs have a lot to play for as they are in the thick of the playoff battle in the National League. The Cubs still have a chance to win the NL Central, and if they don't they still have a good shot at a Wild Card spot. Jordan Wicks is one of the Chicago Cubs top prospects. He has pitched like it in his first three starts too. Wicks has allowed just 4 runs total in 16 and 2/3 innings pitched. He has good control and several plus pitches. Kyle Freeland starts here for the Rockies. Freeland has a 5.83 ERA and a 6.07 FIP in his last 12 starts. The Cubs have crushed Freeland in the past too. This Cubs lineup has a .431 weighted on base average against Freeland in 73 plate appearances. The Rockies have the worst offensive numbers in the majors in the past 30 days. This inexperienced lineup is really struggling. Take Chicago -1.5.
09-08-23	White Sox v. Tigers -124		6-0	Loss	-124	17 h 14 m	Show
3 Star Play on Tigers ML Which team has the worst record in baseball since the MLB All Star Break? It's the Chicago White Sox. They are 16-36 since the break, and the White Sox have been awful on the road all year (26-46). This is a team that has struggled badly against right handed pitching all year too. Reese Olson has pitched great in a small sample size against the White Sox. In 39 plate appearances, the White Sox hitters have a very low .131 wOBA. Olson has good swing and miss stuff. Mike Clevinger has been torched by this Tigers lineup. He has allowed a .383 wOBA in 72 plate appearances. He's backed by a weak bullpen that has been used heavily of late. The Tigers haven't been great by any means, but they are 25-26 since the break, and they don't appear to have shut it down for the season. Take Detroit.
09-06-23	Astros v. Rangers OVER 8.5		12-3	Win	100	18 h 49 m	Show
3 Star Play Over Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer are still both good pitchers, but both of them are certainly past their prime. This isn't the pitching matchup that it would have been a few years ago. Justin Verlander has a 3.34 ERA and a 4.04 FIP on the season. Max Scherzer has a 3.55 ERA and a 4.14 FIP. These two offenses are both top five in the majors in all major categories for the year. Houston has been on fire offensively of late. They have scored 27 runs in the first two games of this series. Both bullpens have been shaky of late, and their depth isn't what it was earlier in the season. There is a very real chance for big innings late here even if the starters pitch well. Mark Wegner is the home plate umpire here. He is one of the best over umpires in baseball. Wegner consistently has a low strikes called percentage and a low strikeout/walk ratio. He can really frustrate pitchers and help the hitter. Take the over here.
09-04-23	Astros +101 v. Rangers		13-6	Win	101	14 h 17 m	Show
3 Star Play on Astros ML The Houston Astros rank 2nd in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching. Houston is much healthier than they were for much of the season, and the Astros offense is deep and dangerous. Houston is coming off a sweep at the hands of the Yankees in a disappointing series. They are tied with the Rangers at one game back of the Seattle Mariners in the AL West. Houston is a veteran team and I trust them to respond well to adversity. Andrew Heaney is an average or slightly below average left handed pitcher. In a large sample size of 174 plate appearances, the Astros lineup has a .355 wOBA against Heaney. They have hit him very well. J.P. France has been solid this year, and the Rangers offense has been inconsistent of late. France has a sparkling 2.04 ERA away from home this year. He has allowed 2 runs or fewer in seven of his last eight starts. Take Houston.
09-01-23	Braves v. Dodgers OVER 8		6-3	Win	100	9 h 11 m	Show
3 Star Play Over This is a meeting of the number one and number two offenses in baseball for the season based on weighted on base average (wOBA). This is a low total considering how good both of these offenses are and how consistently they have performed. Max Fried is a good pitcher, but he'll be up against a Dodgers lineup that has been crushing lefties in the last month. Fried has five starts back from injury and his ERA is 3.58. In four of those five games he has faced a weak offense. Julio Urias has a 4.41 ERA and a 4.43 FIP this season. The Braves are easily first in the majors against left handed pitching. Atlanta is very good against righties too, but they are even better against lefties. Both lineups are deep and these pitchers should have to work with a lot of runners on base here. Take the over.
08-30-23	Nationals v. Blue Jays OVER 8.5		0-7	Loss	-114	14 h 5 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Washington Nationals start Patrick Corbin here. Corbin isn't a good left handed pitcher anymore. He is prone to both the long ball and being quite wild. The Toronto Blue Jays are 7th in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. It is a tough matchup for Corbin. The Blue Jays scoring outputs have been relatively low in the last 14 days, but their batting average on balls in play has been an abysmal .244. That will regress positively toward the mean. Corbin is giving up a ton of hard contact too. Chris Bassitt is a middle of the road type pitcher. Bassitt has allowed 4 runs in three of his last five starts. The Nationals have been a feisty bunch here of late, and Abrams and Thomas are tough at the top of the order. This total is set quite low for a game with a poor lefty against a strong lineup. Washington's bullpen has the single worst FIP in all of baseball for the season too. Take the over.
08-28-23	Astros v. Red Sox OVER 9.5		13-5	Win	100	19 h 35 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Houston Astros and Boston Red Sox meet in Boston on Monday. These two teams just met in Houston this past week. The four game series saw games with combined totals of 13, 10, 12, and 18 runs. Houston and Boston both rank in the top nine in baseball in weighted on base average in the last 14 and last 30 days. These two offenses have been rolling of late. Houston is averaging 7 runs per game in their last 7 contests. The Red Sox have scored six runs or more in six of their last ten games, and they haven't scored less than three runs in any of those games. Cristian Javier has been terrible of late. Javier has a 6.25 ERA and a 6.12 FIP in his last eight starts. The team has provided him huge run support in many of these recent games. Chris Sale has come back from injury and been shaky. Sale isn't pitching deep into games, and I don't trust the Boston bullpen either. Both offenses should get plenty of scoring chances here. Take the over.
08-27-23	Yankees v. Rays -116		4-7	Win	100	11 h 58 m	Show
3 Star Play on Tampa Bay Rays ML The Tampa Bay Rays are 43-23 at home this year. The New York Yankees are 2-12 in their last 14 games. The Yankees are out of it and they are playing like they know this. New York starts Carlos Rodon in this one. While Rodon is coming off a 6 inning start giving up only one run, a deeper look at that start shows concerning signs still. He had just one strikeout. Rodon is normally a high strikeout guy. He has a 6.27 ERA and a 7.06 FIP this year. Rodon has dealt with a bunch of injuries. Earlier this month, Rodon allowed 4 runs in 4 innings against Tampa Bay. Zach Littell is a middle of the road pitcher. He is a right handed starter though, and the Yankees offense is bottom five in the majors in weighted on base average against right handers. They have been silenced by worse pitchers quite a few times recently. A short price on the much better overall team who has been very tough to beat at home. Take Tampa Bay.
08-25-23	Padres v. Brewers -115		3-7	Win	100	18 h 15 m	Show
3 Star Play on Brewers ML The Milwaukee Brewers have been playing good baseball. Milwaukee is 7-3 in their last 10 games. Their three losses during that period were against the LA Dodgers. Everyone has been losing to the Dodgers of late, so there is no shame in those three losses. San Diego is 5-5 in their last 10 games, and they have been on a long home stand. They now start a road trip in Milwaukee. Yu Darvish vs. Brandon Woodruff is a good starting pitcher matchup. Darvish has been good for the season overall, but he is capable of laying an egg at any point and has been less consistent than other top starting pitchers. Brandon Woodruff has a great history against this Padres lineup. In 70 plate appearances against him, the Padres hitters have just 3 extra base hits. The Brewers have the best defense in baseball, and they have a clear bullpen advantage here too. Take Milwaukee.
08-23-23	Nationals +124 v. Yankees		1-9	Loss	-100	18 h 42 m	Show
3 Star Play on Nationals ML The Washington Nationals have a 22-14 record since the All Star Break. This is a young team that is competing hard every game. The New York Yankees are 11-23 since the All Star Break. That is tied for the worst mark in the majors since the break (tied with the Oakland A's and Chicago White Sox). The Yankees have lost 9 straight games. They now start Luis Severino in this game. Severino is 2-8 on the year, and he has been throwing the ball terribly of late. Severino has an 11.08 ERA and a 7.97 FIP in his seven starts since July 1st. The Nationals start Mackenzie Gore. Gore is a young lefty who has had some hiccups along the way, but he is a decent starter. Gore goes up against a Yankees lineup that has scored 3 total runs or fewer in six of their last seven. They have scored 1 run or less in four of their last six. Given this nice plus money price, I have to fade Severino and the Yankees. Take Washington.
08-22-23	Reds +121 v. Angels		4-3	Win	121	21 h 52 m	Show
3 Star Play on Cincinnati Reds The Cincinnati Reds will start Graham Ashcraft in this game. Ashcraft started the season pitching terribly, but he has pitched well of late. In fact, Ashcraft has given up three runs or less in nine straight starts. He has been pitching deep into the games as well. Ashcraft has a 5.55 ERA in his career in the first half of the season, but a much better 3.95 ERA in the second half. He is also much better away from home. Lucas Giolito has been really bad of late. In his last nine starts, he has a 6.34 ERA and a 5.86 FIP. Giolito has allowed 16 runs in his last 15 and 2/3 innings pitched. He's backed an Angels bullpen that has the worst FIP of any bullpen in baseball since the All Star break. The Reds are 33-27 away from home. Cincinnati is very much still in the thick of the playoff race, but they need this one. I like their chances- and getting the plus money here is a nice bonus. This was the play I liked on Monday, and now I'm getting a bigger plus money price. I'll bet on the Reds again here after the Monday game was ppd. Take Cincinnati.
08-20-23	White Sox v. Rockies OVER 11.5		10-5	Win	100	12 h 47 m	Show
3 Star Play Over Chris Flexen is in terrible form this year. Flexen has a 7.74 ERA and a 7.01 FIP. He is walking 4.09 batters per nine innings. He is giving up a ridiculous 2.63 home runs per nine innings on the season thus far. Walking a bunch of guys and giving up hard contact and home runs is a bad combination at Coors Field. Dylan Cease is certainly capable of pitching very well. Cease has been up and down in a big way this year. The Rockies have scored 25 runs in the first two games of this series, and they hit pretty well at home. The weather in this one calls for 98 degrees and winds blowing out to left field at about 12 mph. Overs are 115-82 (58.4%) at Coors Field with the wind blowing out to left field. A temperature near 100 degrees is a positive for run scoring as well. Take the over.
08-19-23	Blue Jays v. Reds UNDER 10		4-3	Win	100	16 h 33 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Cincinnati Reds offense hasn't been what it was before the All Star break. Cincinnati was great offensively in June and early July. Since the All Star break, the Reds are 26th in the majors in weighted on base average. The Reds are striking out at the 4th highest rate in the majors during that time. Chris Bassitt is a decent pitcher who has a 3.63 ERA and a 3.91 FIP in his last ten starts. Brandon Williamson starts for the Reds here. Williamson has a 3.65 ERA and a 3.99 FIP in his last ten starts. He has actually been better at Great American Ballpark than he has away from home. This is a hitters park, but the temperatures here aren't as hot as normal for this time of the year. The temperature will be in the upper 70's with a slight breeze in from center field for much of the game. Phil Cuzzi is the home plate umpire. The under 16-5 in his 21 games behind home plate this year. His strikeout/walk rate over the last few years shows he is a great strike caller. Take the under.
08-18-23	Giants v. Braves -1.5		0-4	Win	100	18 h 32 m	Show
3 Star Play on Braves -1.5 The Atlanta Braves have the best record in baseball. The San Francisco Giants have overachieved for much of the season, but the Giants offense has been miserable in recent weeks. Atlanta has the best offense in baseball by a wide margin, and I think it will be tough for the Giants to keep up here. San Francisco ranks dead last in baseball in weighted on base average as an offense since the All Star break. The Giants are seriously lacking power. Alex Cobb starts here for the Giants, and Cobb has tailed off badly in recent starts. Cobb has a 6.58 ERA and a 6.46 FIP in his last five starts. Spencer Strider has been one of the best starters in the majors this year. He is coming off a shutout of the Mets in his last start. Take Atlanta -1.5.
08-16-23	Orioles +151 v. Padres		2-5	Loss	-100	20 h 42 m	Show
3 Star Play on Orioles ML The Baltimore Orioles have the second best record in baseball. Baltimore is coming off an ugly loss to San Diego on Tuesday night. Baltimore is 26-13 in their 39 games against a left handed pitcher. They face Blake Snell, a very good lefty, in this contest. Snell has 24 walks in his last five starts. Even for a guy who walks quite a few batters in general, 24 walks in 27 innings pitched is excessive. Baltimore ranks top five in the majors in walk percentage against lefties on the season. Dean Kremer starts for the Orioles. I'm not here to say he is great, but he has been better of late. The Orioles have arguably the best bullpen in baseball too backing him up. The Padres bullpen is a bottom ten bullpen. Should the Padres be favorites here? Yes. I don't think they should be this big of a favorite though. They are 11-13 in Snell's 24 starts this year. They are still a team with many issues. Of course San Diego could blow them out here, but at this very large plus money price- I'm backing the Orioles. They have found ways to win games this year. The Padres have often found ways to lose them. Take Baltimore.
08-15-23	Orioles +118 v. Padres		3-10	Loss	-100	21 h 56 m	Show
3 Star Play on Orioles ML This handicap is pretty simple for me. If you are going to give me a decent plus money price on the Baltimore Orioles against the San Diego Padres, I'm going to take it. San Diego is 2-8 in their last 10. They are 6.5 games back in the Wild Card race, and this team has been burning money all year long. The Baltimore Orioles have the second best record in baseball. They still aren't getting the respect they deserve. The Orioles have been road warriors this year. Baltimore is 38-22 on the road this year. The Orioles have a great bullpen and are a good defensive team. Jack Flaherty has pitched much better of late. In his last seven starts he has a 3.10 ERA and a 3.98 FIP. He goes against Michael Wacha for the Padres. Wacha is returning from the injured list for this start. Baltimore has far more to play for and they have the much more complete team. Take the Orioles.
08-15-23	Yankees v. Braves OVER 11		0-5	Loss	-100	19 h 34 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Atlanta Braves offense is setting records for the season, and they are absolutely on fire of late. Atlanta has scored six runs or more in five straight games. They have scored six runs or more in 11 of their last 13 games. In the other two games they scored 4 and 5 runs. The production has been absolutely amazing. This is a deep lineup that is a pitcher's nightmare. Luis Severino has an 8.06 ERA and a 6.64 FIP on the season. Severino has been even worse of late allowing 18 runs in his last 9 innings. Now, he goes to face the best offense in the majors. Bryce Elder started the season very well, but the wheels have been coming off of late. Elder has a 7.94 ERA and a 6.20 FIP in his last six starts. He has walked 12 and only struck out 17 during that time. The Yankees offense has warmed up quite a bit in recent weeks. The total here is very high, but I don't think it is quite high enough. Take the over.
08-14-23	Mariners v. Royals UNDER 9		6-7	Loss	-117	20 h 8 m	Show
3 Star Play Under Seattle goes to Kansas City to take on the Royals on Monday night. Brady Singer started the year out pitching very poorly, but the young right hander has really turned it around of late for the Royals. Singer has a 5.05 ERA for the year and 4.00 FIP. In his last five starts since the All Star break, Singer has a 2.94 ERA and a 3.29 FIP. He has just 5 walks and 31 strikeouts in those five starts. Logan Gilbert is a really solid starter. Gilbert has a 2.58 ERA in his last seven starts. He has only five walks during that time. He is allowing less than one home run per nine innings as well. Two underrated starting pitchers and a total at the key number of nine here. I like this one to stay under the posted total. Take the under.
08-13-23	Rangers v. Giants UNDER 8		2-3	Win	100	13 h 47 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The San Francisco Giants offense ranks 29th out of 30 in baseball in weighted on base average in the last 14 days. The Giants are a bit banged up right now, and the offense is really struggling badly. Dane Dunning is a decent starting pitcher who flies under the radar often. Dunning has a 3.21 ERA and a 4.06 FIP on the season. Logan Webb is a good starter who has great splits when pitching at home in his pitcher friendly home park. Webb has a 2.23 ERA at home this year and a .262 wOBA allowed. Webb has a 2.81 career ERA when pitching in San Francisco. Doug Eddings is the home plate umpire here. He has a very long history of being an under umpire. His strikes called percentages are consistently among the highest in the league. He's a top three under umpire. Take the under.
08-12-23	Angels v. Astros OVER 9		3-11	Win	100	16 h 53 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Houston Astros offense is heating up as they have gotten healthy. Houston is averaging 7 runs per game in their last five contests. The Angels pitching staff has been really bad of late, and their already weak bullpen has been overused. Houston should be able to take advantage in this one with Tyler Anderson pitching. In 69 plate appearances, the Houston lineup has an amazing .480 weighted on base average against Anderson. JP France starts here for the Astros. France has been very fortunate so far this season. He has a 2.75 ERA but a 4.40 xERA and a 4.15 FIP. France is carrying an ultra high strand rate which can't be sustainable in the long run. The Angels still have a pretty good offense with a lot of pop. These two bullpens rank second and third worst in the majors in FIP in the last 30 days. The Angels have been very weak all year, and the Astros have been worse in the bullpen in recent weeks. Take the over here.
08-11-23	Braves v. Mets OVER 9.5		7-0	Loss	-115	7 h 11 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Atlanta Braves offense is in a different class from the rest of baseball. They have been extremely consistent on offense throughout the season. Atlanta has the perfect mixture of guys who get on base and big sluggers to knock them in. The Braves have seen 7 of their last 8 games get past this posted total. The New York Mets have seen five of their last nine games go above this posted total. Tylor Megill starts for the Mets here and he has a 5.45 ERA and a 6.27 xERA. Megill is a subpar pitcher who the Braves should get to quickly here. Charlie Morton has a 3.86 ERA and a 4.09 FIP. He clearly isn't the same pitcher he was a few years ago. Morton also has been bad against this Mets lineup. They have a .347 weighted on base average against him in 147 plate appearances. Take the over in this one.
08-09-23	Marlins v. Reds UNDER 10		5-4	Win	100	11 h 8 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Miami Marlins haven't been good against right handed pitching all year. Miami is 20th in weighted on base average against right handed pitching for the season. The Marlins have tailed off offensively in general over the last month. They sit at 23rd in the league in wOBA in the last 30 days. The Cincinnati Reds offense is 25th in wOBA in the last 30 days. The team is striking out at a very high rate. The youngsters of this team have been more inconsistent of late. The team is missing both Jake Fraley and Jonathan India who are injured. Johnny Cueto starts against his former team here. Graham Ashcraft starts for the Reds. Ashcraft has been pitching much better over his last six starts. For an August afternoon in Cincinnati, the weather isn't too hot. A temperature of 82 degrees for this one. Bill Miller is the home plate umpire here. He has the highest called strikes percentage of any umpire in the majors in the last 3 years (average). Miller is a big help to an under. Take the under.
08-08-23	Braves -1.5 v. Pirates		8-6	Win	100	16 h 22 m	Show
3 Star Play on Braves -1.5 The Atlanta Braves have lost three games in a row. I still believe this is the most well rounded team in baseball. Atlanta has a good chance for a bounce back here. Mitch Keller was great early in the season, but he has been terrible the last couple months. Keller has a 5.63 ERA and a 5.12 FIP in his last 11 starts. He is now up against the best and deepest lineup in baseball. I'm not optimistic about his chances of slowing them down. Keller has walked 14 batters in his last five starts. He has allowed 7 home runs in his last four starts as well. Chirinos isn't a great pitcher, but he's backed by a good bullpen and a great offense here. The motivation level should be high for the most complete team in baseball here. Take Atlanta -1.5.
08-07-23	Twins v. Tigers UNDER 8.5		9-3	Loss	-110	18 h 16 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Detroit Tigers offense is a bottom six or eight offense in baseball. Pablo Lopez is a far better than average right handed pitcher. Lopez has a great .196 weighted on base average allowed against the Tigers lineup. Lopez has been in good form coming into this one and the advanced metrics suggest he is due for positive regression as we move forward. Joey Wentz hasn't been very good this year, but the Minnesota Twins have been terrible against left handed pitching. In fact, Minnesota is second to last in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching. Wentz has a solid .264 wOBA allowed in 49 plate appearances against the Twins. Both offenses in an unfavorable split here and there will be chances for the starters to take care of business. Seven of the last ten games between these two teams have stayed under this total. Take the under.
08-06-23	Braves -112 v. Cubs		4-6	Loss	-112	11 h 57 m	Show
3 Star Play on Braves ML The Atlanta Braves aren't going to be priced in this range very many times. The Braves are playing better than anyone else in baseball right now, and it isn't very close. The Braves are excellent against right handed pitching, and they are even better against left handed pitching. The Braves have a .371 weighted on base average against left handed pitching. The second best team in the majors sits at .355. Charlie Morton isn't the dominant pitcher he was a few years ago, but he is still a decent pitcher with a 3.62 ERA and a 4.07 FIP. Justin Steele's form hasn't been quite as good of late. Steele has a FIP of 4.03 in his last five starts after being stellar earlier this year. Now, he gets his toughest test of the season. The Braves lost on Saturday, and I like their chances of bouncing back on Sunday. Take Atlanta.
08-05-23	Rays v. Tigers UNDER 8		2-4	Win	100	11 h 18 m	Show
3 Star Play Under Tarik Skubal starts for the Tigers in this one. Skubal has a 4.57 ERA and a 2.22 xERA and a 1.33 FIP in five starts this year. Skubal has an extremely low left on base rate of just 50% and opponents have a .340 batting average on balls in play against him. Skubal is a talented starter who is due for positive regression. Skubal hasn't allowed a run at home this year, and he has a .126 wOBA allowed in 13 innings pitched at home on the season. Aaron Civale has faced this Tigers lineup a bunch of times. In the past, it has been as a member of the Cleveland Guardians. Civale now starts for the Tampa Bay Rays, and his past history against the Tigers is strong. Civale has allowed a wOBA of only .275 against the Tigers lineup in his career. In the last 30 days, Tampa Bay ranks 24th in the league in overall wOBA. The offense has been relatively cold. The Tigers offense ranks 27th in wOBA during that time. Take the under.
08-04-23	Diamondbacks +119 v. Twins		2-3	Loss	-100	18 h 57 m	Show
3 Star Play on Arizona ML The Arizona Diamondbacks start Merrill Kelly in this game. Kelly has a 3.23 ERA on the season and his road ERA is 2.74. Kelly has elite control and his fastball has a little bit more velocity on it than it did a couple years ago. The Minnesota Twins have been without Byron Buxton the last couple days due to a hamstring injury. He is questionable in this one. Minnesota starts Bailey Ober on the mound here. Ober has allowed five home runs in his last three starts. He has a 4.13 FIP in his last five starts overall, and he has trended downward quickly in his recent outings. The Diamondbacks are 9th in weighted on base average against right handed pitching, and Arizona has been good on the road this year. Getting the plus money here in what I think is a tossup at worst for Arizona, I'll side with the road team. Take Arizona.
08-03-23	Pirates v. Brewers -127		1-14	Win	100	19 h 7 m	Show
3 Star Play on Brewers ML The Milwaukee Brewers are coming off a big missed opportunity having lost a series to the Washington Nationals in Washington. Milwaukee is only half a game back of the Reds in the NL Central. The Cubs are also closing fast. Milwaukee needs to get back on track. They go home now to play host the Pittsburgh Pirates. Mitch Keller started the season throwing the ball very well, but he has been bad of late. Keller has a 4.88 ERA and a 5.04 FIP in his last ten starts overall. He has been worse on the road this year and in his career he has been worse in the second half of the season. Keller has a bad track record against this Brewers lineup too. Milwaukee hitters have a whopping .359 weighted on base average against Keller. Adrian Houser is a middle of the road pitcher, but the Pirates lineup is a weak one that was made a bit worse when they traded away Carlos Santana. Take Milwaukee.
08-02-23	Rays v. Yankees -105		2-7	Win	100	17 h 32 m	Show
3 Star Play on Yankees ML Shane McClanahan started the season out as well as any pitcher in the majors. McClanahan is still a good pitcher, but he hasn't been in great form of late. He has a 4.40 ERA and a 4.40 FIP in his last ten starts. His strikeout rate is down a bit and his home runs allowed rate is up quite a bit. McClanahan in his career has showed that the second half is his much weaker half of the season (3.76 ERA in 2nd half in his career compared to 2.53 ERA in first half). Gerrit Cole has been going the other way. Cole started the season slower than expected, but he has come on of late. Cole has a 2.30 ERA in his last ten starts with a 2.75 FIP. He is walking only 1.44 batters per nine innings and allowing just 0.72 homers per nine innings. The Yankees need this game to avoid the sweep at home. They are very much still in the AL Wild Card picture and this is a crucial game for them. The Rays have been far better at home than on the road, and I like the Yankees to bounce back in this one. Take New York.
07-31-23	Padres -1.5 v. Rockies		3-4	Loss	-125	21 h 31 m	Show
3 Star Play on Padres -1.5 The San Diego Padres swept the Texas Rangers and now they are just five games back in the NL Wild Card. San Diego has underachieved all year and this is a team that is definitely capable of getting hot and making the playoffs. Will the team stay put ahead of the trade deadline? It seems far more likely now than it did a week or so ago. San Diego has had drastic splits all season. The Padres mash left handed pitching. They struggle against right handed pitching. Austin Gomber is a below average left handed starter for the Rockies. Gomber has an ERA above 7 at home this year, and in 110 plate appearances the Padres lineup has a stellar .382 weighted on base average against Gomber. San Diego should be able to put up a good number here at Coors Field. Colorado just got rid of their #3 and #4 hitters in the lineup from Sunday. Both Grichuk and Cron are now traded away. The Rockies will sell anything they can, and they have nothing to play for right now. Seth Lugo has a 2.97 ERA in his last five starts. He is a quality right handed starter. The Rockies are 6-19 against the NL West. The Padres are 21-16 against a left handed starter. I like San Diego to keep the momentum going. Take San Diego -1.5.
07-30-23	Mariners v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5		4-0	Win	100	13 h 7 m	Show
3 Star Play Under Luis Castillo and Merrill Kelly have been very solid all year long. These are two right handed starting pitchers who often go deep into the game. Neither of these guys give opponents free passes very often. Castillo has been quite a bit better in the second half of the season in his career. Kelly has been very good in day games during his career. These two offenses have been very inconsistent this year. Both of them are prone to going through cold stretches. I see this as a tough matchup for both of them. It's a Sunday get away day game where sometimes we see a key bat or two out of the lineup. Take the under here.
07-29-23	Cubs +105 v. Cardinals		5-1	Win	105	17 h 19 m	Show
3 Star Play on Cubs ML The Chicago Cubs have gotten hot of late. The Cubs have a pretty good lineup, and their defense has been making some huge plays for them. St. Louis is going to be a seller at the trade deadline this year. The Cardinals are having a really disappointing season. They were the favorite in the NL Central. Adam Wainwright starts here, and he was once a very good pitcher, but he isn't that pitcher anymore. He has a 7.31 ERA on the season and his ERA at home is north of 8. He just isn't missing bats. Wainwright is striking out only 4.92 batters per nine innings. Jameson Taillon has pitched better in his last few starts after a bad start to the season. Taillon has good control and he has decent numbers against the Cardinals. The Cubs lineup is a good one, and they have great numbers against Wainwright. The Cubs lineup overall has a .371 weighted on base average against Wainwright. Take Chicago here.
07-28-23	Twins v. Royals OVER 9.5		5-8	Win	100	18 h 12 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The Minnesota Twins offense has broke out of late. Minnesota Twins are third in the majors in weighted on base average in the last 14 days. The Twins have had several underachievers break out in the last couple weeks. The Kansas City Royals offense hasn't been very good, but the Royals bullpen has been the single worst bullpen in the majors in terms of SIERA in the last 30 days. This bullpen is overworked and they are struggling badly of late. Brady Singer has had a very disappointing season this year. He is giving up too much hard contact and has allowed too many big innings. The weather here is drastic too. A game time temperature of 98 degrees with winds of about 14 mph and gusts to 28 mph blowing out toward center field. In Kansas City, games with a temperature of 90 degrees or higher and winds blowing out at 6 mph or more are 32-14 in the last 46 contests. Take the over.
07-28-23	Phillies -1.5 v. Pirates		2-1	Loss	-100	17 h 59 m	Show
3 Star Play on Phillies -1.5 Mitch Keller was great early in the season, but things have been very different of late. Keller has a 5.06 ERA and a 5.12 FIP in his last nine starts. Keller has allowed 14 runs in his last two starts. He is in very bad form. The Philadelphia Phillies have heated up a lot of late. Zack Wheeler is a very strong second half pitcher in his career. He has a career ERA that is more than half a run better in the second half than the first half. He faces a Pirates lineup that has struggled in a big way to score runs of late. Keller has awful numbers in his career against this Phillies lineup. In 66 plate appearances, the Phillies hitters have a eye popping .572 weighted on base average against Keller and their average exit velocity is a whopping 94.8 mph. He isn't fooling them at all. Take Philadelphia -1.5.
07-26-23	Cubs -114 v. White Sox		10-7	Win	100	18 h 51 m	Show
3 Star Play on Cubs ML The Chicago Cubs start Marcus Stroman here. Stroman has a 3.80 ERA in his career in the first half of the season and a 3.27 ERA in the second half of the season. He has allowed a .342 batting average on balls in play in his last five starts and has a left on base rate of just 51%. Positive regression should be on the way. The White Sox are 27th out of 30 teams in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching. Chicago has been really weak against right handers. Stroman is an above average righty. Lance Lynn has been bad all season. Lynn has a 6.18 ERA and a 5.28 FIP. Lynn has a very high .426 wOBA allowed against this Cubs lineup. The Cubs are still capable of making a run for a playoff spot if they get hot. The White Sox are completely out of it. Take the Cubs here.
07-26-23	Orioles +102 v. Phillies		4-6	Loss	-100	16 h 1 m	Show
3 Star Play on Orioles ML The Baltimore Orioles are 23-10 against left handed starting pitchers so far this year. Baltimore is much better against lefties than righties. The Orioles are also 32-19 in their road games so far this year. This isn't a team that is afraid to go on the road. Kyle Bradish has been superb over his last ten starts. He has a 2.25 ERA and a 2.90 FIP in that ten game span. He is allowing only 1.8 walks per nine innings. Bradish has allowed two runs or fewer in seven straight starts. Ranger Suarez has allowed four runs or more in three of his last four starts. He has much worse stats at home this year than on the road. Baltimore is still a bit underrated by the oddsmakers. Take the Orioles ML.
07-25-23	Mariners v. Twins UNDER 8		9-7	Loss	-105	18 h 39 m	Show
4 Star Play Under George Kirby has a 3.32 ERA at home in his career. Kirby has a 3.31 ERA on the road in his career. Kirby is averaging less than one walk per nine innings. No one in the majors has better control than Kirby. He also averages less than one home run per nine innings. He is a very solid young pitcher. Pablo Lopez has a 4.22 ERA and a 3.22 xERA and a 3.40 FIP. He is due for positive regression. Lopez is averaging 11.24 strikeouts per nine innings. He is a better pitcher than he has shown so far this season. Bill Miller is the home plate umpire here. He is my single favorite under umpire in the majors. He has a ridiculous 3.98 strikeout/walk ratio this year. The under is 8-2 in his games with a total of 8 or higher. He has a very good long term track record of a high called strike percentage. Take the under here.
07-23-23	Diamondbacks v. Reds OVER 11		3-7	Loss	-107	10 h 20 m	Show
3 Star Play on Over The Cincinnati Reds start Luke Weaver here. Weaver has been terrible all season long. Weaver has an ERA above 7 and his FIP is nearly 6. He has an ERA just north of 8 when pitching at Great American Ballpark. Here he is pitching at Great American Ballpark on a warm summer day where the ball should be flying well. Arizona is a very good lineup against right handed pitching, and I would expect them to get to Weaver early and often here. Jose Ruiz is expected to be the opener for a bullpen game for Arizona here. The DBacks bullpen isn't particularly deep either. Cincinnati's offense has woke up again in the last few games after a temporary slump. The Reds young lineup is a strong one and this is the second best hitters ballpark in the majors. Take the over here.
07-22-23	Blue Jays v. Mariners UNDER 7.5		8-9	Loss	-120	14 h 38 m	Show
3 Star Play Under Kevin Gausman has a 3.13 ERA and a stellar 1.29 FIP in his last four starts. He has 5 walks and 32 strikeouts in that four game span. Gausman has really pitched well this year, and he is throwing the best he has all year in his recent starts. Gausman has a 3.60 career ERA in day games vs. a 4.01 ERA in night games. Logan Gilbert has a 2.33 ERA and a 2.58 FIP in his last four starts overall. Gilbert has a 3.39 day games ERA compared to a 4.02 ERA in night games. This is a day game in Seattle, and it is a battle between two pitchers with elite stuff who have been putting it all together of late. Toronto has seen 5 of their last 9 games stay under this total. Seattle has seen 6 of their last 10 games stay under this low total. Take the under.
07-21-23	Orioles v. Rays UNDER 8		0-3	Win	100	17 h 15 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Tampa Bay Rays offense has cooled off drastically of late. Tampa Bay has only scored more than 4 runs twice in their last ten games. Tampa Bay ranks 23rd in weighted on base average in the majors in the last 30 days. They are up against a good young pitcher in Kyle Bradish. He has a 2.28 ERA and a 2.79 FIP in his last eight starts. Bradish has a 1.41 ERA in his last six starts. Zach Eflin has been really good this year for Tampa Bay. Eflin has been superb at home. He has a 2.34 ERA at home, and he has held opponents to a .240 wOBA at home as well. Eflin has zero walks in his last four starts compared to 21 strikeouts. The Orioles are a good offense, but they are better against lefties than righties. These are two good bullpens who have a good chance of pitching well late in the game too. Take the under.
07-19-23	Guardians -128 v. Pirates		5-7	Loss	-128	14 h 57 m	Show
3 Star Play on Cleveland ML The Cleveland Guardians have been hitting the ball much better of late. They have 26 runs in their last 3 games. Cleveland’s offense has tremendous numbers against Rich Hill throughout his career. Jose Remirez is 6-11 with two doubles and a home run in his career against Hill. The Pirates are 1-9 in their last 10 games. Pittsburgh is in free fall of late, and they will once again be sellers at the trade deadline. Aaron Civale has a 1.69 ERA on the road this season. I think he will quiet the Pirates bats in this one as well. Take Cleveland.
07-18-23	Twins v. Mariners UNDER 7.5		10-3	Loss	-110	20 h 14 m	Show
3 Star Play Under Bailey Ober has been tremendous all season. He has been at his best when pitching on the road. Ober has a stellar .216 wOBA allowed and a 2.01 ERA on the road thus far this season. Even at this low total, 11 of his 14 games have stayed under this total (one went over solely because of extra innings too). Bryan Woo has been really good for the Mariners. Woo has an extremely high 11.16 strikeouts per nine innings rate. He has multiple put away pitches, and the Twins have been striking out at a pretty high clip. Both teams have deep and solid bullpens and they should be ready to go in this one. Muchlinski is a pretty good under umpire and Seattle is still a top five pitchers park in the majors. Take the under.
07-18-23	Rays v. Rangers -129		3-5	Win	100	18 h 38 m	Show
3 Star Play on Rangers ML The Tampa Bay Rays offense was elite early in the season, but the Rangers offense has been much better in the last month. In fact, the Rangers have the second best weighted on base average in the majors in the last month. Tampa Bay's wOBA as a team is in the bottom ten in the majors. Nate Eovaldi has been rock solid all year. Eovaldi is a very consistent pitcher, and he has great numbers against this Rays lineup. Eovaldi has held this lineup to a .290 wOBA in 115 plate appearances. Taj Bradley has pitched very poorly in his last three starts. He's been a streaky pitcher in his young career, and this is a tough ask for him to bounce back against this tremendous offense. Take Texas.
07-17-23	Marlins +106 v. Cardinals		4-6	Loss	-100	17 h 30 m	Show
3 Star Play on Marlins ML Jesus Luzardo has been in terrific form of late. Luzardo has a 0.70 ERA and a 1.88 FIP in his last four starts. That includes a six inning shutout performance against St. Louis on July 4th. Luzardo has improved his control in a big way this year. He is striking out nearly 11 batters per nine innings too. The Cardinals are just middle of the pack against left handers. Miles Mikolas is starting on odd rest since he pitched just 3 innings before a weather delay in his last start on Friday. The Cardinals are only 19-26 at home this year. St. Louis has been a big disappointment. The Cardinals bullpen has worse advanced metrics than the Marlins bullpen. I like Miami to get a good performance from their ace and stop their losing streak at three. Take Miami.
07-16-23	Dodgers +112 v. Mets		1-2	Loss	-100	15 h 21 m	Show
3 Star Play on Dodgers ML The LA Dodgers have a great offense. They rank 4th in the majors in weighted on base average (wOBA) against right handed pitching. Max Scherzer is dealing with neck stiffness, but is still expected to start. Scherzer is coming off back to back poor outings. He has allowed nine runs in 11 innings in those two starts. He is up against the second best lineup in the National League here. Bobby Miller has electric stuff, and he is able to lean on several plus pitches. The Mets offense is extremely inconsistent. I rate the Dodgers bullpen as better than the Mets bullpen. The bullpens could matter more than normal here with rain being a possibility which can shorten the day for the starter. Take the Dodgers.
07-15-23	Astros v. Angels UNDER 8		12-13	Loss	-100	19 h 38 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Houston Astros are without both Jose Altuve and Michael Brantley. That's a significant hit to the lineup. The Los Angeles Angels are without Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon. That's also a huge hit to the lineup. Framber Valdez has been the best starter for the Astros this year. He's a very good lefty who can mix up his pitches well. Valdez has a stellar .267 wOBA against the Angels lineup. Reid Detmers had a bad outing in his last start, but that was against the LA Dodgers. The Dodgers make a lot of pitchers look bad. Before that game, Detmers had five straight starts with two runs or less allowed. Detmers has a very solid 3.78 FIP on the season. Detmers has pretty good numbers against most of the Astros hitters. Corey Blaser is the home plate umpire here, and he is a solid under umpire. The under is 42-26 in his last 68 games behind the plate. He has a strikes called percentage clearly high than the league average too. Take the under.
07-14-23	Brewers -108 v. Reds		1-0	Win	100	9 h 30 m	Show
3 Star Play on Brewers ML The Milwaukee Brewers start Corbin Burnes here. Burnes historically has much better numbers on the road than at home (1.024 WHIP compared to a 1.10 WHIP). Even though Great American Ballpark is clearly a hitters park, Burnes has a 1.80 ERA in Cincinnati in 25 innings pitched. The current Reds lineup has only a .213 wOBA against him. Graham Ashcraft starts for the Reds, and he has been terrible at Great American Ballpark. In his career, Ashcraft has a 6.10 ERA at Great American Ballpark (100 innings). He has an ERA north of 7 at home this year. The Brewers have hit him hard in the past too. The Reds are a solid team, but the pitching mismatch here is significant. The price here is too cheap on the Brewers for me to pass it up. Take Milwaukee.
07-09-23	Mets v. Padres UNDER 8		2-6	Push	0	16 h 33 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The New York Mets dropped a 3-1 game to the Padres on Saturday night. On this final contest of the first half of the season, I like this game to stay low scoring as well. It's a pitching matchup of Max Scherzer vs. Joe Musgrove. Both of these guys have fantastic numbers in their respective careers against the opposing offense. Scherzer has allowed a very low weighted on base average (wOBA) of .242 in 204 plate appearances for this Padres lineup. Musgrove has a very good .282 wOBA allowed against this Mets lineup. Scherzer isn't what he was several years ago, but he still has great strikeout stuff and he has a history of pitching better in day games. Musgrove has been fantastic in his last eight starts. He has a 2.01 ERA and a 2.52 FIP in those games. Both offenses have been inconsistent and this is a tough matchup for them. Take the under.
07-08-23	Reds v. Brewers OVER 9.5		8-5	Win	100	14 h 0 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Cincinnati Reds are second in the majors in weighted on base average in the last month. This is an offense that is very hard to quiet on a consistent basis. Joey Votto has started producing nicely again of late. The youngsters are fantastic with De La Cruz, Steer, Friedl, and McClain really shining. Cincinnati is aggressive on the bases, and it has paid off most of the time. The Reds were quieted by Corbin Burnes last night, but Colin Rea doesn't have nearly the stuff Burnes does. Luke Weaver has been very weak this year. He's gotten great run support, but Weaver has been hit around hard. Weaver is in the 10th percentile in expected batting average allowed out of all pitchers in the majors. He is in the 18th percentile in strikeout percentage. He has an ERA above 12 in the first inning. The Reds bullpen has been overworked of late as well. Milwaukee has scored six runs or more in 7 of their last 8 games. Take the over here.
07-07-23	Phillies -119 v. Marlins		4-3	Win	100	16 h 31 m	Show
3 Star Play on Phillies ML The Philadelphia Phillies have been better than I expected this season. Their defense is much improved and the pitching staff has been very solid. Zack Wheeler is a guy we all know is solid, and his numbers don't show good he has been on the year. Wheeler has a 4.03 ERA, but a 3.39 xERA and a 2.92 FIP. Wheeler has a very low 67.4% left on base percentage so far this year. That should improve through the year. Sandy Alcantara had a breakout season last year, but he has fallen off badly this year. Alcantara had a 2.28 ERA last year. He has a 4.93 ERA this season thus far. He has a 4.39 SIERA, so he has struggled in general. Alcantara is giving up more hard contact, and his strikeout percentage has fallen a lot. Alcantara has a very poor .355 wOBA against this Phillies lineup. Philadelphia is 12-0 in their last 12 road games. The Phillies are 11th in wOBA against right handed pitching. Miami is 21st in that same statistic. Take the Phillies.
07-06-23	Cardinals v. Marlins -115		3-0	Loss	-115	6 h 23 m	Show
3 Star Play on Miami ML Eury Perez has been the #1 ranked prospect in the Miami Marlins organization for quite some time. Perez had been superb until last game when the Atlanta Braves hit him hard. The Atlanta Braves have hit everyone hard though. Atlanta is easily the best offense in the majors over the last month. The market has come in against Perez and backed St. Louis, which has pushed the price down to a level where I'm going to back Miami here. The Marlins are 18-5 in their last 23 home games. The Cardinals have been finding ways to lose of late. St. Louis is set to be a seller at the deadline when they were expected to win the NL Central. Jack Flaherty hasn't been very good this year. Flaherty has been very inconsistent. He has allowed six runs in two of his last three starts. Take Miami here.
07-06-23	Reds v. Nationals OVER 9.5		5-4	Loss	-115	11 h 22 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The weather forecast calls for 91 degrees and a very slight breeze blowing out at Nationals Park on Thursday afternoon. The heat has really helped the over at this park. Nationals Park has seen 102 overs and 73 unders with temperatures of 85 degrees or higher. This one certainly fits that bill. Brandon Williamson has an ERA over 5 and an xERA over 6. He has had issues throwing strikes in the minors and he has given up the home run ball far too often in the majors. Mackenzie Gore has been sidelined with a finger injury. Gore is back for this game, and he faces a Reds offense that has been on fire. In the last 30 days, only one offense has been better than the Reds in weighted on base average (the Braves). Cincinnati's youngsters are hitting the ball really well. This has suddenly become a deep lineup that excels against lefties. Both pitchers have been very shaky and the conditions are prime for scoring. Manny Gonzalez is behind home plate and he is a solid over umpire. Take the over.
07-05-23	Mets v. Diamondbacks +104		2-1	Loss	-100	20 h 41 m	Show
3 Star Play on DBacks ML The New York Mets have won three straight games, but this is still a flawed team. The Mets have a bottom five bullpen in baseball. Senga is a pretty good starter, but he struggles badly with walks. The DBacks have the 10th highest walk rate in the majors against right handed pitching. The DBacks are a top five team in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching overall. Tommy Henry has only allowed four runs in his last three starts. Henry appears to be improving as he goes this season. The Mets offense ranks 20th in wOBA against left handed pitching. The DBacks are still a very good team, and I see this as a good price to take them against the Mets while the market gets a bit higher on the Mets during their win streak. Take Arizona.
07-04-23	Rockies v. Astros OVER 9.5		1-4	Loss	-105	15 h 30 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Houston Astros offense has come alive in a big way of late. Houston has 63 runs in their last nine games (7 runs per game on average). They have scored 10 runs or more in three of their last six games. Houston is better against lefties and they face a lefty in Kyle Freeland in this game. Freeland has to go through several red hot right handed hitters who are at their best against southpaws. Brandon Bielak starts for the Astros here, and he hasn't been good. Bielak has a 4.37 ERA and a 5.67 FIP. He has allowed 10 runs in his last 9 and 2/3 innings pitched. The Astros bullpen is gassed right now, and Bielak isn't very likely to pitch deep into the game. The Rockies offense is bad against lefties, but they have been a top 12 offense against right handers. I expect both teams to get plenty of scoring chances. Take the over.
07-03-23	Orioles -110 v. Yankees		3-6	Loss	-110	8 h 47 m	Show
3 Star Play on Orioles ML The New York Yankees return home from a long road trip for this one. They didn't receive a day off, and they had to play a doubleheader on Saturday. The Yankees bullpen has been used heavily of late. Domingo German pitched a perfect game in his last start, but in the two previous starts he allowed 17 runs in 5 and 1/3 innings pitched. German has a 4.54 ERA and a 4.87 FIP on the season. Tyler Wells has been solid for the Orioles. In his career, he actually has better numbers on the road than at home. Wells has allowed two runs or fewer in six straight starts. The Orioles bullpen is healthier than the Yankees bullpen and they haven't been overused of late. Baltimore has slumped lately, but they still have the more complete team here. Aaron Judge is out and a lot of key bullpen pieces are out for New York. I like Baltimore to get back on track here. Take the Orioles.
07-02-23	Diamondbacks v. Angels UNDER 8.5		2-5	Win	100	16 h 37 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Arizona Diamondbacks and LA Angels meet in LA on Sunday afternoon. Zac Gallen is clearly one of the best right handed starting pitchers in the majors. Gallen has been a bit inconsistent at times, but he has been really good in two of his last three starts. Gallen has a 3.02 ERA and a 2.74 FIP on the year. Reid Detmers is the guy who most people don't realize is coming a very solid starting pitcher. Detmers has a 1.05 ERA and a 2.58 FIP in his last four starts. Detmers is up against an Arizona lineup that has been far better against right handed pitching than lefties. Detmers is an up and coming good lefty. Doug Eddings is behind the plate for this one. Eddings is clearly a top two or three under umpire in baseball. He consistently has some of the very highest strikeout/walk ratios and strikes called percentages. He has those again this year and the under is 9-4 in his games behind the plate. Take the under.
07-01-23	Padres v. Reds +1.5		12-5	Loss	-105	11 h 7 m	Show
3 Star Play on Cincinnati +1.5 The San Diego Padres have lost 9 of their last 11 games. The Padres have been finding ways to lose games of late. Their bullpen is a weak spot, and Michael Wacha is coming back from an injury in this one. Wacha isn't likely to pitch as deep into the game as normal. The Cincinnati Reds have won 15 of their last 18 games overall. Cincinnati on the +1.5 runline is 17-1 in their last 18 games. The Cincinnati youngsters have been fantastic in the lineup. Elly De La Cruz, Spencer Steer, Matt McClain and company are coming up clutch and this team never stops battling. Cincinnati does still have some flaws as a team, but this Reds team isn't getting enough love from the oddsmakers. The Reds are fast and their speed has been making a difference on the bases. The defense of the Reds is good as well. The Padres have underachieved in a big way. Take Cincinnati +1.5.
06-30-23	Padres v. Reds OVER 11		5-7	Win	100	6 h 19 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Cincinnati Reds have the third highest weighted on base average in Major League Baseball in the last 14 days. They have been putting up some big numbers. Elly De La Cruz, Matt McClain, Spencer Steer and all the youngsters in this lineup have been contributing in a big way. Now, the Reds come home to the second most hitter friendly ballpark in the majors. Graham Ashcraft has been terrible of late for the Reds. Ashcraft has a 12.62 ERA in his last six games. He has been much worse at home throughout his career. San Diego's lineup has been inconsistent, but they should get a lot of scoring chances here. Seth Lugo is a mediocre pitcher, and I expect him to have a lot of traffic on the bases here too. A game time temperature of 91 degrees with a very slight breeze blowing out means the conditions here are great for runs. Take the over.
06-29-23	Marlins v. Red Sox UNDER 9.5		2-0	Win	100	15 h 18 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Boston Red Sox have gotten a bit banged up, and their offense has really struggled of late. Yoshida has missed the last two games, and he is questionable for this one. Boston has scored two runs or fewer in four of their last six games. Jesus Luzardo is a young pitcher with great stuff. He has a 3.77 ERA and a 3.42 FIP on the season. Luzardo has just 7 walks and 55 strikeouts in his last eight starts. Brayan Bello starts for the Red Sox. He has really rounded into form of late. In his last five starts, he has a 2.35 ERA and a 2.60 FIP. Bello was a very highly touted prospect, and he seems to be figuring it out. While both teams have been slightly above average on offense in the last 14 days, they are 1st and 3rd in the majors in batting average on balls in play. Miami is at .355 and Boston at .339 during that time. Those numbers will regress toward the mean. Stu Scheurwater is the home plate umpire in this one, and he has a very high strikeout/walk ratio which suggests he is helpful to the pitcher. Take the under.
06-28-23	Marlins -120 v. Red Sox		6-2	Win	100	7 h 47 m	Show
3 Star Play on Marlins ML The Miami Marlins are 21-8 in their last 29 games. The Marlins are 5-0 in their last 5 road games. Miami is playing great baseball of late. They have their hottest starting pitcher on the hill in this one. Braxton Garrett has a 2.00 ERA and a 2.03 FIP in his last eight starts. He has 8 walks and 62 strikeouts in that time span. Garrett is coming off a 0 walk and 13 strikeout performance in his last game. The Red Sox are expected to go with Ort to start the game here, but it will be a bit of a bullpen game. Ort has good numbers on the season thus far, but it is a very small sample size. He struggled badly in the minors the last couple years and I would expect him to regress toward that performance in the majors as well. Miami as a team and Braxton Garrett as the starting pitcher are being underrated here. Take Miami.
06-27-23	Astros -104 v. Cardinals		2-4	Loss	-104	8 h 5 m	Show
3 Star Play on Astros ML The St. Louis Cardinals haven't been nearly as good as expected. They might be the most disappointing team in the majors. The Cardinals were awesome against left handed pitching last year, but they are 17th in weighted on base average against lefties this year. The Astros are 13th. Houston's Jose Altuve is questionable for this one with a sore heel. I think that is more than accounted for in the line for this game. If Altuve plays, it is a big bonus. The Astros do still have a pretty good lineup without Altuve. Houston's Framber Valdez gives them a pitching advantage. He has a sparkling 2.27 ERA and a 2.71 FIP. Valdez has a great combination of swing and miss stuff and very good control. The Astros are 42-17 in their last 59 following a day off. The Cardinals are 2-6 in their last 8 following a day off. The Cardinals are also 1-8 in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning record. Take Houston.
06-26-23	Reds v. Orioles OVER 9.5		3-10	Win	100	17 h 42 m	Show
3 Star Play Over Both the Cincinnati Reds and the Baltimore Orioles are above average for the season when it comes to weighted on base average against left handed pitching. Both of these teams have been red hot offensively of late in general too. Cincinnati has scored 5 runs or more in 11 of their last 12 games. The Reds young nucleus of hitters has turned this into a really deep lineup with a rare combination of speed and power. Elly De La Cruz gets much of the attention and it is well deserved, but Matt McClain and Spencer Steer are stars as well. Joey Votto has looked good in his first week back in the majors too. The Reds pitching staff is badly shorthanded now with injuries. Brandon Williamson has an ERA above 5 and has been allowing far too many baserunners. The Orioles start Cole Irvin here. Irvin has a 7.71 ERA and his xERA is even higher at 8.91. His FIP is 5.41. He is clearly a below average left hander. Take the over.
06-25-23	Royals v. Rays OVER 8.5		1-3	Loss	-104	12 h 32 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Tampa Bay Rays are first in the majors in weighted on base average. The Rays have worked the count consistently on starters and gotten to the bullpen in early. Kansas City starts Daniel Lynch and then the bullpen behind him is very weak. Lynch is a lefty who has had quite a bit of trouble keeping the ball in the park. The Rays should get to him. Tyler Glasnow starts for the Rays. He's clearly not himself and he has been working from behind in the count too often. Mark Wegner is the home plate umpire here. He has the lowest strike/walk ratio of any umpire in the majors in the last five years. He's a clear help to the over. Take the over.
06-24-23	Braves v. Reds OVER 11.5		7-6	Win	100	15 h 36 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Cincinnati Reds have won 12 straight games. It's thanks in large part to their offensive explosions of late led by a bunch of great youngsters. De La Cruz, McClain, Steer, and company have been fantastic. They are now getting a big boost from Joey Votto now that he is back in the lineup. This is clearly an above average lineup now. The Atlanta Braves have the best lineup in baseball in my opinion. This is a deep lineup that is excellent against both right handers and left handers. They hit for both power and average. Atlanta has scored 8 runs or more in six of their last nine games. They have scored 10 runs or more in three of their last five. The Reds have scored 8 runs or more in four of their last six games. Cincinnati is up against a mediocre lefty in Shuster in this one. Ashcraft has been the Reds worst pitcher of late. He has ugly splits at home in his career. A high temperature of 87 degrees and winds blowing out at 6 mph are a help too. Take the over.
06-23-23	Nationals v. Padres -1.5		3-13	Win	100	20 h 12 m	Show
3 Star Play on Padres -1.5 The San Diego Padres are 8th in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching. San Diego is much better against left handed pitching. They are up against a subpar lefty here in Patrick Corbin of the Washington Nationals. Corbin has a 4.89 ERA, 4.92 FIP, and a 6.32 xERA on the season. The Nationals lefty has a drastically lower swinging strike rate of 9.0% on the season. He still gives up a lot of hard contact. The Padres have plenty of power, and Corbin gives up a lot of home runs. Joe Musgrove has been rounding into form with an ERA of 2.15 ERA and a 2.97 FIP in his last five starts. His season to date stats don't mean that much to me at this point. I think Musgrove is still a very solid starter. It's a good spot for the Padres to keep pouring on the runs after winning 10-0 over the Giants on Thursday. Take San Diego -1.5.
06-22-23	Diamondbacks v. Nationals OVER 9.5		5-3	Loss	-115	12 h 40 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Washington Nationals have a .310 OBP against right handed pitching. They have a .335 OBP against left handed pitching. They are up against a mediocre left hander in Tommy Henry here. In limited action against him, the Nationals have hit him well. Jake Irvin starts here for the Nationals. Irvin is one of my lowest rated starting pitchers in the majors. Irvin ranks in the bottom 6% of all pitchers in walk rate. He also ranks in the bottom 1% of all pitchers in whiff rate. That's a really bad combination. The Nationals are 7th in wOBA at home this year. The DBacks are 3rd in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching. I think both teams will see plenty of scoring chances here. Take the over.
06-20-23	Blue Jays v. Marlins -108		2-0	Loss	-108	16 h 16 m	Show
3 Star Play on Marlins ML The Toronto Blue Jays start Yusei Kikuchi in this one. Kikuchi has consistently throughout his career pitched worse as the season has gone along. His two best months of the year have been the first two months of the season in his career, and it isn't close. Kikuchi has been tailing off of late. He has a 4.91 ERA and a 6.24 FIP on the season. The Miami Marlins aren't very good against right handed pitching, but they smash left handed pitching. Miami is 4th in weighted on base average against lefties. The Marlins have been on fire of late in general. They are 17-5 in their last 22 games. They are 12-2 in their last 14 contests. The Blue Jays have a good offense, but they have been inconsistent this year. Eury Perez is the Marlins #1 rated prospect, and he has been tremendous in his first seven big league starts with a 1.80 ERA. The Blue Jays have a losing record on the road this year, and I think this is a good price on the home team. Take Miami.
06-18-23	Pirates v. Brewers UNDER 8.5		2-5	Win	105	13 h 48 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Milwaukee Brewers start Freddy Peralta here. Peralta has drastic home/road splits in his career. Peralta has a career WHIP of 1.024 at home and a WHIP of 1.329 on the road. His ERA is 3.50 in day games in his career as well. He faces a Pirates team that has been much stronger especially of late against left handed pitching. The Pirates have scored three runs or fewer in five of their last seven games. Luis Ortiz is an inconsistent starter. He is certainly capable of getting hit hard, but the upside is very real too. Ortiz has been wild so far this year and that has hurt him quite a bit. He should be helped a lot by home plate umpire Doug Eddings. Eddings has consistently been a top two or three under umpire in baseball for many years. In Eddings last 68 Sunday games behind home plate (get away type games in many cases with early starts) the under is 46-22. His strikes called percentage is very high annually. He should help both pitchers here. Take the under.
06-17-23	Cardinals v. Mets UNDER 9		5-3	Win	100	13 h 18 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The weather in this game calls for wind blowing in about 12-15 mph from left center field. That should be a nice boost at Citi Field, which is already ranking in the top 5 pitcher's parks in the majors this year according to park factors. Kodai Senga has a 1.93 ERA and a .250 weighted on base average allowed at home on the year. The Cardinals offense has scored three runs or fewer in four of their last five. The bottom of their order has really been holding them back in a big way. Adam Wainwright is far from the pitcher he once was, but the Mets offense is definitely a level worse without Pete Alonso in the middle of the order. Home plate umpire Shane Livensparger's games are 30-18 to the under in the last couple seasons. He has a high strikeout/walk ratio of 3.03 so far this year. Take the under.
06-16-23	White Sox v. Mariners UNDER 8		2-3	Win	100	20 h 22 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Chicago White Sox are 29th out of 30 teams in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. The Seattle Mariners are 22nd out of 30 teams in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching. Michael Kopech started the year pitching poorly, but he has really coming into his own of late. In his last five starts, Kopech has 5 walks and 44 strikeouts. He has a 1.72 ERA and a 2.57 FIP in those five starts. Bryan Woo was very good in the minors and he is coming off a good start against the Angels. Woo is backed by a good bullpen for Seattle. This is a top three or four pitcher's park in the majors. Take the under.
06-14-23	Yankees v. Mets UNDER 7.5		3-4	Win	100	20 h 47 m	Show
3 Star Play Under Gerrit Cole is one of the best pitchers in baseball. Cole has a 2.64 ERA and a 3.69 FIP. Cole has fantastic numbers against the Mets lineup. How good? Cole has a .242 weighted on base average against the current Mets players in 107 plate appearances. Justin Verlander has been really inconsistent this season. He has either been great or terrible. Verlander is coming off a really poor start against the Braves. I think this is a good bounce back spot for him. Both Aaron Judge and Pete Alonso are out with injuries right now. Those are the two best offensive players in this matchup. Bill Miller is the home plate umpire. He has the highest strikeout/walk ratio of any umpire in the majors over the last five years. Miller is calling more than 66% of pitches a strike this year. Take the under.
06-13-23	Reds +105 v. Royals		5-4	Win	105	20 h 5 m	Show
4 Star Play on Reds ML I have to bet the Reds in this one at this price. Jordan Lyles is 0-10 with an awful 6.84 ERA and a 6.01 FIP on the season thus far. Lyles is giving up a ton of hard hit batted balls this year. His strikeout percentage is bottom 15 percent in the majors. He has an extremely high home run rate allowed on the season. Lyles often doesn't pitch very deep into the game, and then the Royals bullpen is in for a long while. The Royals have the second worst bullpen in the majors ahead of only the Oakland A's. Brandon Williamson was hit hard by the Dodgers, but the Royals are certainly a big step down as a lineup from the Dodgers lineup. Williamson has pretty good stuff and I think this is a bounce back opportunity for him. The Reds bullpen rested their best guys last night and they should be available in this game too. This is a very solid bullpen. Cincinnati is much better now with their young stars in the lineup. Elly De La Cruz, Matt McClain, and Spencer Steer are all really solid players who are leading the offense to much brighter things. Take Cincinnati.
06-12-23	Reds +105 v. Royals		5-4	Win	105	20 h 18 m	Show
3 Star Play on Reds ML The Cincinnati Reds do start a weak pitcher here in Luke Weaver, but everything else in this game points in their direction. The Reds have a very underrated bullpen. The Reds are a top six or eight bullpen in baseball right now. Cincinnati's offense with Matt McClain and Elly De La Cruz in the lineup has been producing in a big way of late. Cincinnati still has plenty to play for knowing they are in the NL Central where no one is running away with anything. Zack Greinke gets more respect in the betting markets than he should at this point. He was once a great pitcher, but he hasn't been at that level for several years. He's backed by the second worst bullpen in the majors. The Kansas City offense has been terrible against right handed pitching. Given this price, I have to side with the Reds on the road. Kansas City is 9-23 in their last 32 home games. The Reds are 7-2 in their last 9 road games. Take Cincinnati.
06-11-23	A's v. Brewers UNDER 8.5		8-6	Loss	-115	13 h 5 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Milwaukee Brewers are dead last in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching. While JP Sears isn't an excellent lefty by any means, he is a a young lefty with good stuff and high potential. The Brewers could find it tough going against him on Sunday. Freddy Peralta has drastic home/road splits. Peralta has 3.41 ERA at home and an ERA over 6 on the road this year. He's also against an Oakland A's offense that is dreadful against right handed pitching. I like Peralta's chances of getting back on track in this one. The Brewers bullpen is still an above average one too. Take the under here.
06-10-23	Mariners v. Angels UNDER 9.5		6-2	Win	100	19 h 26 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The LA Angels start Patrick Sandoval in this one. Sandoval can be dominant at times, but he does have some poor games as well. In this one, I do like the matchup for him. Sandoval has a good history against the Seattle batters he has faced through his career thus far. Importantly, Seattle is 27th in wOBA against left handed pitching on the season. The Mariners have the fourth worst strikeout percentage against lefties too, and Sandoval is a high strikeout type lefty starter. Woo starts for the Mariners. There isn't a long history on him and he appears to be an average prospect for the Mariners. The Angels are a bit shorthanded in the lineup right now. LA is a much better team against lefties than righties as well. Phil Cuzzi is a top five under umpire in the majors. He consistently has had extremely high strikeout/walk ratios of 3 or higher. So far this year 9 of his 11 games behind the plate have stayed under the total. Take the under.
06-10-23	A's v. Brewers -1.5		2-1	Loss	-100	13 h 30 m	Show
3 Star Play on Brewers -1.5 The Oakland A's have been playing a bit better of late. I don't think it will continue for long. Oakland is easily the worst offense in the majors against right handed pitching. Julio Teheran isn't a great right handed pitcher, but he doesn't usually put many people on base for free. Paul Blackburn is an average or a little below right hander for the A's. The Brewers are much better against right handed pitching than lefties. Milwaukee has a massive bullpen advantage in this game as well. Oakland is the worst bullpen in the majors by a wide margin. The Brewers bullpen is still a pretty good one. Take Milwaukee -1.5.
06-09-23	Astros v. Guardians UNDER 8		9-10	Loss	-100	18 h 43 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Cleveland Guardians have one of the worst offenses in baseball. Cleveland is second worst in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. Cristian Javier is one of the better right handed pitchers in the American League. Javier has great control and his curveball is a major weapon. Logan Allen is a highly rated youngster for Cleveland. The left handed Allen has a 2.76 ERA and a solid 3.22 FIP. The Astros are a talented lineup, but they are likely to be without Yordan Alvarez here after he was injured early in last night's game. Houston has scored two runs or fewer in four of their last five games. These two of the top eight bullpens in baseball. It should be tough to get a lot of scoring chances in this game. Take the under.
06-08-23	Astros -109 v. Blue Jays		2-3	Loss	-109	8 h 2 m	Show
3 Star Play on Astros ML The Houston Astros start Framber Valdez in this one. Valdez has a stellar 2.16 ERA and a 2.87 FIP. He is one of the top pitchers in baseball now. There aren't going to be very many times you can lay this short of a price on Valdez. Toronto is an inconsistent team, and Jose Berrios is an extremely inconsistent pitcher. There is always a chance that Berrios could dominate and the Jays win, but I think the odds implied by the oddsmakers here are too high on the Blue Jays. Berrios has a 3.66 ERA and a 3.72 FIP on the season. The Astros also clearly have the better and deeper bullpen. Houston has gotten healthier in the last few weeks. The Astros are 8-0 in Valdez's last 8 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. Take Houston.
06-07-23	Mariners +104 v. Padres		3-10	Loss	-100	14 h 36 m	Show
3 Star Play on Mariners ML The Seattle Mariners start George Kirby in this one. Kirby is a really good young pitcher. He is one of the most underrated young pitchers in the game today. Kirby has elite control (0.76 walks per nine innings) and has a 3.04 ERA on the season. With a FIP of 3.22 and an xERA of 3.27 it's clear it hasn't been a fluke that he has had success. This is a day game, and in his short career Kirby has thrown 75 innings in day games and has a stellar WHIP of just 1.04 and an ERA of 2.88 in those day games. Michael Wacha is an inconsistent pitcher. He is capable of looking good, but he is also capable of a clunker. Wacha has a terrible history against this current Seattle Mariners lineup. He has allowed this lineup to hit for a .502 weighted on base average in a fairly large sample size of 109 plate appearances. The Padres have been without Boegarts for the last three games and he is questionable here. Grisham is also injured and may miss this game. Seattle is the healthier team and with the better starting pitcher. The Mariners bullpen also has better advanced metrics. Take Seattle.
06-06-23	Diamondbacks v. Nationals OVER 9.5		10-5	Win	100	17 h 25 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Washington Nationals offense has been really good against left handed pitching this year. Washington is 4th in the majors in OBP at .356 against lefties. Tommy Henry has a 3.73 ERA, but a 5.21 FIP on the season. Henry has allowed just a .244 BABIP so far this year. He isn't likely to be able to keep that up. Henry ranks in the bottom ten percent of all pitchers in the majors in strikeout rate too. Washington starts Jake Irvin here, and I believe he is one of the worst starting pitchers in the majors. Irvin has a 5.67 ERA and a 5.80 FIP on the season. He ranks in the bottom one percent of all pitchers in the majors in whiff rate. His xERA is 5.99. The Diamondbacks have had a top eight offense against right handed pitching all year. Washington's bullpen is bottom three in the majors. Arizona's bullpen is worse than an average bullpen as well. Take the over here.

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