Sports Picks & Predictions

College Football Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
01-01-24	Alabama v. Michigan UNDER 46.5		20-27	Loss	-110	665 h 57 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Michigan Wolverines and Alabama Crimson Tide meet in what should be an epic semifinal in the Rose Bowl. Michigan was the more consistent team through the year, but Alabama's talent is second to none. The Wolverines offense has struggled a bit to get going at times this year. The Wolverines defense has been solid as ever this year. Michigan defensively has no clear weakness. The Wolverines are 6th in YPC allowed and 6th in the country in opposing QBR allowed. While Alabama has been quite explosive on offense, Michigan has done a great job not giving up big plays this season. Alabama's offense has relied more on explosives than normal. Milroe is a fantastic play maker, but he does take too many big negative plays. I think the Michigan pass rush can give him a difficult time here. The Alabama defense is supremely talented. They are good against the run, and the secondary is elite. Michigan is 112th in explosiveness on offense. The Wolverines are just 75th in the country in yards per carry. Without Zinter, their best offensive lineman, I think Michigan will have a hard time just running it right at Alabama here. Michigan is dead last (133rd) in the country in pace of play. The Wolverines are going to be happy to move very slowly and take a lot of time on their drives. Alabama is 105th in tempo, so they play pretty slowly as well. I like the defenses to make it hard for the opposing offenses here. Take the under.
12-29-23	Memphis v. Iowa State OVER 57		36-26	Win	100	24 h 53 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Memphis Tigers have been able to make almost every game they play in a shootout this year. In fact, eight of their last nine games have gone over this total. The one that didn't go over was still at 52 points. The Memphis defense gives up loads of big plays. They have given up 71 plays of 20 yards or more on the season. Iowa State is first in the nation in explosiveness on offense. Becht has done a great job as quarterback for the Cyclones. Iowa State's secondary was pretty good during the year, but they are shorthanded here. TJ Tampa is a star in the secondary and he has opted out. Malik Verdell is injured and is questionable to play too. Seth Henigan and the Memphis offense should be able to do enough to get this game over the number. Memphis is averaging 39.6 points per game this year. This is a better defense than they usually face, but I think the Memphis team speed on offense can get them some scores. Iowa State has a huge advantage on offense, and I like Memphis to be able to score when playing from behind. Take the over.
12-28-23	SMU v. Boston College UNDER 50.5		14-23	Win	100	141 h 1 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The SMU Mustangs defense was underrated all season long. SMU ranked fourth in success rate allowed in the country. They were 12th in the nation in YPC allowed. The strong run defense of SMU is key here since Boston College runs it on 60% of their plays for the year as a whole. Boston College has been even more run heavy in recent weeks. Castellanos for Boston College has been banged up and the BC offense has been much more buttoned up of late. Boston College comes into this game very short handed at both running back and wide receiver based on the transfer portal. I don't trust the BC offense to get much done here. SMU is without Preston Stone at quarterback. They are more conservative with Jennings at quarterback. This Mustangs offense is solid, but not spectacular. Fenway Park is the venue here and this game has a history of a lot of windy games with poor weather in general. It's an 11 am eastern kickoff in Boston in winter. The long range forecast calls for rain showers and a decent amount of wind. I like the under even without weather, but this could be a nice bonus too. Take the under.
12-02-23	Louisville v. Florida State UNDER 48		6-16	Win	100	80 h 26 m	Show
3 Star Play Under FSU put up just 3.9 yards per play on a bad Florida defense last week. I know it is a rivalry game, but that is concerning. Florida had been getting torched weekly until last week. FSU 4th in explosiveness on offense for the year, but likely less explosive with Tate Rodemaker at QB. Louisville defense 40th in YPP allowed, but 21st at PFF in overall defense grade. 6th in defensive line yards. FSU is 111th in offensive line yards. I don’t think FSU can just run it down their throats. Louisville 91st in OFF Line yards. FSU 13th in DEF Line yards. I think the Cardinals ground game has trouble getting going too. The FSU defense has been underrated throughout the season. Louisville's Plummer has been inconsistent at quarterback this year. There is some rain and a little wind in the forecast as well. Take the under.
12-02-23	SMU v. Tulane UNDER 47.5		26-14	Win	100	76 h 23 m	Show
3 Star Play Under Preston Stone is a key loss for SMU at quarterback. Jennings has very little experience at quarterback. SMU gave up just 4.4 yards per play in the AAC. Amazing! The Mustangs held 4 of their last 7 opponents to 14 points or less. Tulane’s offense didn’t really work nearly as well as expected this year. Tulane was 108th in rushing play success rate on offense- very low for a Willie Fritz coached team. SMU 11th in rushing play success rate allowed. SMU has a great pass rush. 5th in the country in pass rush grade at PFF. 40 sacks!! Pratt is good but I think he’ll be under pressure more than normal here. Tulane plays at a slow pace. They run on 60% of offensive plays. SMU offense should be a bit more conservative with Jennings. If anything I would expect more running. The Tulane run defense has been elite. The way to beat the Tulane defense has been passing. Take the under.
12-02-23	Miami-OH v. Toledo UNDER 44		23-14	Win	100	22 h 56 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Toledo Rockets won 17-7 last year in the MAC Title game against an Ohio Bobcats team without their star quarterback. Toledo ran the ball over and over again in that game and grinded it out. Now, Toledo goes into the title game in the MAC against a Miami team without star quarterback Brett Gabbert. Aveon Smith has struggled badly for Miami. Miami is going to want to run the football as much as they can and move very slowly. They don't want a high scoring game, because their offense simply isn't good enough to win shootouts. Toledo does give up successful running plays, but they are excellent in the secondary and they don't give up explosive plays. Miami's drives should take a bunch of time off the clock. Toledo had just 4.3 yards per play in their 21-17 win over Miami in the regular season. The Rockets want to run the ball a lot, but Miami has the best run defense in the MAC. Miami has allowed 21 points or fewer in every MAC game they have played this year. I don't think we'll see many big plays here. Toledo likely wins, but Miami's defense won't make it easy. Take the under.
11-25-23	Maryland v. Rutgers UNDER 46		42-24	Loss	-110	134 h 3 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Rutgers defense ranks first in explosiveness allowed. The Maryland defense ranks 8th in explosiveness allowed. These two are very good at not giving up that huge play. Rutgers is 127th in the nation in tempo. The Scarlet Knights are going to play slowly, and they are going to run the football as often as possible. Rutgers is 10th in the nation in yards per play allowed. Schiano's defenses always play very hard and this one is no different. The strength of their defense is their secondary. Maryland likes to throw the ball and Rutgers should have the guys to slow them down. Maryland's defense is much improved this year. They are 25th in the nation in yards per play allowed. The Rutgers offense has scored 16 points total in the last two years against Maryland. They will likely struggle again here. Rutgers is much better defensively this year than the last two years. Take the under.
11-25-23	Virginia Tech v. Virginia OVER 52.5		55-17	Win	100	25 h 50 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Virginia Tech Hokies offense has hit a whole new gear in recent weeks. With Drones at quarterback instead of Wells, this is a much more explosive offense. Drones has been very good running and good enough in the passing game too. VA Tech put up 7.6 yards per play on a very good NC State defense last week. They put up 8.3 YPP two weeks ago on the Boston College defense. Virginia has a good young quarterback in Colandrea. He is a big play guy either way at this stage in his career. He throws too many picks and a pick six is always a possibility, but he is creating big plays for the Cavs on offense too. Virginia has 6.4 YPP on a good Louisville defense two weeks ago and an impressive 6.3 YPP against Duke last week too. Virginia has picked up their pace of late. These two teams are 114th and 120th in the country in explosiveness allowed. The weather calls for a nice day here. Expect some big plays. Take the over.
11-25-23	Middle Tennessee State v. Sam Houston State OVER 48.5		20-23	Loss	-110	117 h 32 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The MTSU Blue Raiders passing attack has been much better in the last few weeks. Quarterback Nicholas Vattiato has 12 touchdown passes compared to just 4 interceptions in MTSU's last four games. The offense has picked up their pace significantly too, and it has been working. Sam Houston State's offense was dreadul early in the season, but they have been much better in the last five games. Both teams are snapping the ball every 24.1 seconds which is far quicker than the national average. A total set this low for a game played at this pace is pretty rare unless there are elite defenses. The MTSU defense is 77th in the nation in YPP allowed and Sam Houston is 99th. MTSU is 11th in the nation in explosiveness on offense. It's the last game for both and I think the offenses will show up. Take the over.
11-25-23	Texas A&M v. LSU OVER 65		30-42	Win	100	21 h 21 m	Show
3 Star Play Over Jayden Daniels has impressed me the most of any player in the country this year. He was very good last year in Brian Kelly's system, but this year he has been elite. LSU is clearly putting up as many stats as possible for Daniels to try to get him the Heisman Trophy. Daniels is one of the two favorites (Bo Nix) for the award. Nix is likely to get more games to play while Daniels will not. This is LSU's last chance to feature Daniels and put up a big number. The Texas A&M secondary is banged up right now, and LSU should be able to hit some explosive plays on them. Texas A&M has a good defense overall, but Miami put up 48 points on them and Ole Miss scored 38. The LSU offense is the best one they have faced all seaosn. The LSU defense is one of the worst in the SEC. While we don't know if it will be Henderson or Johnson at quarterback for A&M here, I think they can score enough regardless. LSU has allowed 117 plays of 10 yards or more this year. LSU will score a lot here. I expect A&M to do enough too. Take the over.
11-21-23	Eastern Michigan v. Buffalo UNDER 41		24-11	Win	100	51 h 22 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Eastern Michigan Eagles take on the Buffalo Bulls in Buffalo on Tuesday night. Eastern Michigan and Buffalo are 9th and 10th in the MAC in yards per play on offense. Buffalo had high scoring games in the non conference, but in MAC contests they have had a bunch of low scoring games. Buffalo has seen 5 of their 7 games in the MAC finish at 38 total points or lower. Eastern Michigan has had five games finish at 36 points or lower. These two are the least explosive offenses in the MAC. They rarely get big plays and the defenses should have the edge. The weather should play a big role here. There is rain in the forecast with sustained winds 17 mph and gusts to 25 mph. That should make the play calling even more conservative. Take the under.
11-18-23	NC State v. Virginia Tech UNDER 45.5		35-28	Loss	-110	136 h 55 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The NC State Wolfpack have gone full out stall mode on offense of late. In their last three games they are the second slowest paced team in the country. NC State is a run heavy offense that doesn't have much explosiveness at all. NC State is 114th in explosiveness in the country. The VA Tech defense has given up some big plays, but on a down to down basis they have been good. I don't think NC State is the type of team who can break those big gainers. VA Tech's defense is 23rd in the country in havoc. They are 24th in success rate allowed. VA Tech's offense has been much better with Kyron Drones at quarterback. They are running about 60% of the time on offense. NC State's defense has been excellent of late. The Wolfpack are 17th defensive line yards and 22nd in rushing play success rate allowed. VA Tech ranks in the bottom ten in the country in terms of tempo in the last three games alone. Two running teams with very slow paced offenses. NC State's last four games have finished: 24-3, 24-17, 20-6, and 26-6. Four of their last six games have finished with a total of 32 points or fewer. Take the under here. This line has moved since I selected it early this week. I would still take this as long as it is at or above the key number of 41. Thanks and good luck.
11-18-23	Temple v. UAB OVER 62.5		24-34	Loss	-108	26 h 44 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The UAB Blazers had a rare very poor showing on offense last week. Navy slowed that game down and UAB didn't play to their potential on offense. UAB overall for the season though is 25th in success rate on offense and the Blazers have scored 35 points or more four times. On the other side, UAB has allowed 41 points or more six times. UAB's tempo is 19th quickest in the country and that often turns their games into shootouts. Temple's offensive stats are skewed because E.J. Warner missed time and the Owls offense could do nothing in his absence. With Warner in the fold, Temple's offense is very good throwing the football. The Owls are 17th in tempo in the country. Temple's defense is 110th in YPP allowed in the country. They are especially terrible against the pass. Jacob Zeno is a good quarterback for UAB and he should have success. Temple has allowed 36 points or more six times this year. I see a back and forth game. Take the over.
11-18-23	Michigan v. Maryland UNDER 50		31-24	Loss	-110	68 h 43 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Michigan Wolverines didn't throw a single pass in the second half against Penn State. Michigan just edged their way down the field and controlled things with the running game. One major reason Michigan running the football so much is important to a total is the Wolverines ranks 132nd (or second slowest) in tempo in the country. They move very methodically. Michigan is 103rd in the country in explosiveness. I have little doubt they'll move the ball well against Maryland, but it should take a lot of time off the clock. Maryland is 13th in the country in explosiveness allowed, so they don't give up big plays very often. The Michigan defense is 3rd in the country in success rate allowed. They are second in opposing QBR allowed. Michigan is 19th in YPC allowed, but Maryland is only 93rd in the nation in YPC. Michigan has Ohio State next week and the Wolverines would be well suited to get a lead and get out of here with a win playing conservatively. The weather here is a plus too. The blend of four forecasts calls for 16 mph winds with gusts of about 28 mph here. That tends to make teams both more conservative and helps the defenses. Take the under.
11-11-23	Arizona State v. UCLA UNDER 46		17-7	Win	100	124 h 20 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The UCLA Bruins saw Ethan Garbers and Dante Moore both get banged up in their loss to Arizona last Saturday. Neither of them practiced on Monday. Ethan Garbers wasn't even at the practice and Moore watched practice without his helmet on. That leaves UCLA thin at QB and would make them more predictable on offense. Trenton Bourguet was injured very early in the Arizona State blowout loss to Utah. Because of other injuries, Arizona State was down to Jacob Conover (4th string QB) and he went 5/22 and was a disaster against Utah last week. Conover might be the man again Saturday. Coach Dillingham said if the game were today Bourguet wouldn't be able to play. The UCLA defense has been fantastic all year. Arizona State's defense has been better than expected. After a poor effort last week, I think the Sun Devils defense will at least play better here. Take the under.
11-11-23	Washington State v. California OVER 59		39-42	Win	100	72 h 26 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The pace will help a lot here. Wash State 31st in tempo this year. Cal is 11th. Lots of pace and plenty of possessions here. The Cal defense is very bad. There are 123rd at PFF in defensive grade. They are also 130th in passing play success rate allowed. We know Washington St will throw it a bunch. 60% of their plays are a pass. Cam Ward is hot and cold, but I like his chances of having a good game against this secondary. Cal’s Dline 122nd in havoc rate. Wash State OLine poor in pass blocking, but they won’t get dominated here like they are some games. Cal’s strength on offense is clearly in the running game. Ott is a tremendous runner and they have some depth behind him and a fairly mobile QB. Wash St 100th in rush play success rate allowed. Wash State 11th in Pac 12 in YPC allowed. I think Cal gets the ground game going here. Washington State has had a couple lower scoring games of late which has kept this number down, but I think this sets up as a track meet type game with the offenses having a bunch of success. Take the over.
11-11-23	Auburn v. Arkansas OVER 48		48-10	Win	100	49 h 24 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Arkansas Razorbacks are playing much different under new offensive coordinator Kenny Guiton than they did under Dan Enos. That's a good thing for the team and for the over. Their offense was terrible and the play calling was bad earlier this year. Arkansas played nearly two seconds per play quicker last week than they did on average the rest of the season. Arkansas also has Rocket Sanders back and Coach Pittman said he's healthier coming into this game than he was going into last weekend. Sanders had his best game of the year last week against Florida. He makes this offense much better when he is at least pretty healthy. Auburn's running game should have some success against a mediocre Arkansas defense. The Razorbacks just allowed 36 points against Florida. Auburn's passing attack has been slightly better of late to give them some balance. I think this number makes sense for the season as a whole, but it is too low based on the changes for Arkansas. Take the over.
11-11-23	Utah v. Washington UNDER 53		28-35	Loss	-110	75 h 12 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The weather is key in this one. Right now the National Weather service says 85% chance of rain during this one. Sustained winds of about 20 mph and gusts as high as 30 mph. If that comes to fruition that absolutely is enough to make a big impact on the game. 6 of Utah’s 9 games have finished with 41 points or fewer total. Whittingham knows they don’t want a shootout against this Huskies team. Washington has played a lot of high scoring games this year, but the weather and an opponent with a weak offense and very strong defense is coming up in this one. Take the under.
11-11-23	UAB v. Navy OVER 52.5		6-31	Loss	-110	24 h 40 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The UAB Blazers have played eight games against FBS opponents. The lowest combined score has been 58 points. They have hit 70 points or higher in four of their eight games. They have only stayed in the 50's once. UAB's passing attack is very good with Jacob Zeno back in the fold. Zeno was 29/35 for 484 yards and 5 TD's passing last week. Navy has a passing defense that is ranked in the bottom ten in passing play success rate allowed. UAB's defense is atrocious against the run. They are 132nd out of 133 in the country in rushing play success rate allowed. They are 130th in YPC allowed. We know Navy will run the football a lot, and they should have success against this UAB defensive front. UAB will push the pace in a big way. Both defenses are weak. This total has moved down to the point I have to fire on an over. Take the over here.
11-11-23	Arizona v. Colorado UNDER 56		34-31	Loss	-110	134 h 44 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Colorado Buffaloes made a offensive coordinator change late last week. I didn't like the move at all. Sean Lewis is a really good offensive coordinator, but the move was made to Shurmur and Lewis was demoted. Shurmur was brought in likely to run the ball more and play at a slower pace. The Colorado offensive line has been so bad that Shedeur Sanders has gotten banged up badly. He clearly isn't himself right now. Colorado played 2.5 seconds per play slower last week than they have for the year overall. The Buffaloes were pass heavy, but they playing from pretty far behind and they were unable to get any offense going at all until very late in the game. Arizona's defense is flying under the radar. The Wildcats defense is much better of late. Arizona is 25th in explosiveness allowed. You aren't going to get big plays on them. They can get in the backfield often too with their talented linebackers. The Colorado OLine is going to be in trouble here. Colorado's defense has played somewhat better of late. They have at least slowed down UCLA and Oregon State in the last couple weeks. Arizona's offense is a good one, but they are playing at a pretty slow tempo. Take the under.
11-11-23	Temple v. South Florida OVER 68		23-27	Loss	-110	45 h 48 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Temple Owls offensive numbers are skewed. E.J. Warner is everything to this offense and he missed a couple games recently and they were absolutely hapless in those games. Temple is a good offense with Warner on the field though. He came back last week and was great against Navy. Now, Temple goes to take on a weaker defense in USF. USF is 132nd in the nation in explosive plays allowed. The Bulls are 1st in the nation in tempo though. Their games have been absolutely shootouts. They lost 59-50 last week against Memphis. In USF's last six games, five of them have finished at 70 total points or higher. Temple had games finish at 74 and 83 points total before Warner was hurt. Temple is a fast paced team as well. There should be a lot of possessions and I like this one to be a back and forth game. Take the over.
11-04-23	Missouri v. Georgia OVER 54.5		21-30	Loss	-110	72 h 60 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Georgia offense is better than people realize. Georgia's Carson Beck is playing good football right now. Even without Brock Bowers, Georgia has solid weapons in the passing game. Georgia put up 486 yards and 7.4 yards per play against Florida last week. The Bulldogs are capable of big things on offense. Missouri's offense has been much improved this year. The play caller here is doing a good job taking advantage of Missouri having one of the best WR rooms in the country this year. Brady Cook has been excellent and Burden and company are a tough cover for anyone. Georgia's defense is clearly very good, but what good offense have they faced this year? This is one of the weakest opposing offenses schedules you could find. Missouri will be the best offense they have seen this year. The Missouri defense allowed 21 points to Vandy. They gave up 27 points to Kansas State. LSU put up 8.1 yards per play and 49 points on them. The Tigers defense is worse than they were a year ago. Take the over here.
11-04-23	South Florida v. Memphis OVER 66.5		50-59	Win	100	134 h 30 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The Memphis Tigers won 45-42 over North Texas last weekend. Memphis gained 600 yards of total offense, but they allowed 591 total yards. Both teams averaged better than 8 yards per play. Memphis has 44 plays of 20 yards or more on the season. They are solid offensively and are pretty explosive. South Florida has 44 plays of 20 yards or more on the season as well. What about the defenses? Both defenses have given up loads of explosive plays this year. USF is 130th in explosiveness allowed (out of 133 teams). USF is second in the nation in tempo. The Bulls are absolutely flying on offense. Alex Golesh and this group want to turn every game into a track meet. USF has seen four of their last five games finish with 70 combined points or more. USF has allowed 56 points twice in their last three games. Memphis is allowing 5.47 yards per carry in AAC play. USF is 123rd in yards per play allowed on the season. The pace here will be very quick and I like this one to be high scoring. Take the over.
11-04-23	Kansas State v. Texas UNDER 51		30-33	Loss	-110	92 h 17 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Kansas State Wildcats are a run heavy offense. They are running the ball on 61% of their offensive plays in Big 12 play. Texas is first in the Big 12 in run defense, and the Longhorns big defensive front should slow down Kansas State much better than the Wildcats recent foes have. Kansas State's secondary was weak early in the season, but they have been amazing of late. In their last two games, Kansas State allowed 3 points against TCU and 0 points against Houston. Texas is without Quinn Ewers at quarterback. Maalik Murphy wasn't asked to do very much last week against BYU. I think Ewers will be missed especially because of his ability to throw the ball deep. Kansas State likely wants to run the ball and play slowly here. Both teams have looked excellent on defense lately. I expect a tight hard fought battle. Take the under.
10-28-23	Colorado v. UCLA UNDER 63.5		16-28	Win	100	72 h 40 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The new clock rules have really made a difference in the higher total games. There is only so much time to score with the clock moving even after first downs. There will certainly still be some very high scoring games, but they have become more rare. Totals of 62 points or higher are 34-20 to the under this season. Colorado has allowed 35 sacks. This Buffaloes offensive line is going to be beaten badly here. PFF rates the UCLA pass rush the e highest of anny in the country. Sanders is going to be under a lot of heat here. Colorado does play quickly but they aren’t always efficient. The Colorado run defense isn't good, but it has been less bad in recent weeks. They are allowing only 3.94 YPC in Pac 12 play. Only one of UCLA’s games against FBS competition has finished higher than 45 points. Ethan Garbers is a more conservative quarterback and I think that could lead to less pick sixes and short fields for the opposition which Moore had done all too often. Take the under here.
10-28-23	Vanderbilt v. Ole Miss OVER 62.5		7-33	Loss	-110	24 h 23 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Vanderbilt Commodores defense has been atrocious this year. They have given up 126 plays of 10 yards or more on the season thus far. In the SEC, they are allowing 6.85 yards per play. Vanderbilt gives up big plays in bunches, and Ole Miss is the definition of a big play offense. Ole Miss has 52 plays of 20 yards or more already this season (3rd best in the country). The Rebels can do it through the air or on the ground. I don't think they'll get to 4th down very often in this game at all. Vanderbilt's offense isn't great, but through the air they have some explosiveness. That is a good fit here since Ole Miss has been weakest in the secondary. Ole Miss is 84th in total QBR allowed. They are 90th in pass play success rate allowed. The two teams are 7th and 14th in the nation in explosiveness on offense. These two met last year and Ole Miss won 52-28. Ole Miss had 9.9 yards per play. Vanderbilt's defense is worse this year. Take the over.
10-28-23	Miami-OH v. Ohio UNDER 39		30-16	Loss	-108	21 h 58 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Ohio Bobcats are nothing like they were last year. Ohio is excellent defensively this year. They are bottom 10 in the country in tempo. The Bobcats are happy to win low scoring games with strong defense this season. 6 of Ohio’s 8 games have finished with a combined total of 37 points or fewer. The Miami OH defense has been tremendous especially in MAC play. They are allowing an average of 11.25 points per games in the MAC. Salopek is a star linebacker that leads the way for them. Miami OH will be without star quarterback Brett Gabbert who had season ending surgery after an injury in the second half of the Toledo game. Aveon Smith is a decent backup, but there is a significant drop off from Gabbert to Smith. Smith is a runner first and he makes the Miami OH offense much more predictable. Gabbert’s big play ability in the passing game is no longer there. Both teams rank in the bottom 25 in the country in terms of tempo. There shouldn't be many big plays here. It's a very low total, but I think it's low for a good reason. Take the under.
10-27-23	Florida Atlantic v. Charlotte UNDER 42		38-16	Loss	-110	115 h 32 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Charlotte 49ers have shown us their game plan pretty clearly at this point. Charlotte wants to play as slowly as possible and run the football and control the time of possession. Charlotte is using 31 seconds between plays in their conference games. The 49ers rank in the bottom 10 in tempo in the country. Charlotte is 126th in the nation in rushing play success rate, but they are running the ball on more than 60% of their offensive plays in the conference. Charlotte's defense is much improved under Biff Poggi who is a defensive minded coach. The 49ers are 32nd in success rate allowed. They are giving up just 4.52 yards per play in conference action so far. Florida Atlantic has been a big disappointment on offense so far this year. The Owls have been held to 187 points or fewer in four of their seven games. They gained just 2.9 yards per play against a mediocre UTSA defense last week. Charlotte has seen 4 of their 7 games (including 3 of their last 4) this year finish with a combined total of 29 points or fewer. This is the type of game Charlotte wants to play with their lack of big playmakers on offense. Take the under.
10-21-23	Georgia State v. UL-Lafayette OVER 58		20-17	Loss	-110	138 h 50 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns were off last weekend. Louisiana has played five FBS opponents this year. The final combined total points scored in those games were: 69, 62, 83. 59, and 64 points. Louisiana is 12th in the nation in yards per play. They are balanced team who can beat you through the air or on the ground. Georgia State is 41st in the nation in yards per play on offense. The Panthers play quickly (39th in the nation in tempo). Georgia State is 11th in the nation in explosive plays on offense. Defensively, Georgia State is 121st in explosiveness allowed. The Panthers allowed 35 points against Rhode Island and 25 points against a really bad Charlotte offense. Even in their win last week, Georgia State gave up 6.7 yards per play against Marshall. Take the over in this one.
10-21-23	Buffalo v. Kent State UNDER 46		24-6	Win	100	121 h 54 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Buffalo Bulls defense looked terrible in the non-conference slate. They have played better against MAC competition. Obviously the MAC is a weak conference, but this has been a common trend for Buffalo. The defense ends up being above average in MAC play. Buffalo has given up just 4.83 yards per play in three MAC games. Kent State's offense is averaging a miserable 3.89 yards per play in the MAC. For the season as a whole, Kent State is 132nd out of 133 teams in the country in yards per play. Buffalo's offense has very little big play ability. In fact, Buffalo has only five plays of 30 yards or more all season long. Kent State's biggest weakness as a defense has been giving up the big play, but I don't think Buffalo will take advantage of that. Buffalo is 127th in the nation in yards per play on offense. These are two really weak offenses. The weather forecast here calls for 16 mph winds with gusts above 20 mph and showers during the day on Saturday. This is a long range forecast, and the weather is just a bonus. Take the under. This line has been moving down some throughout the week. I would still play this as long as it is 42 points or higher. Thanks and good luck.
10-21-23	Tennessee v. Alabama UNDER 49.5		20-34	Loss	-110	95 h 50 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Tennessee Volunteers offense is extremely reliant on being able to run the ball this year. Joe Milton's efficiency has been very poor in games against good opponents. Tennessee scored just 20 points against Texas A&M. They scored only 16 points against Florida. Alabama will easily be the best defense the Volunteers have faced. Alabama ranks #1 in overall defense grade at PFF. Alabama held a very good Ole Miss offense to 10 points at home earlier this year. Alabama is very run heavy this year on offense. Jalen Milroe is inconsistent through the air. Alabama has run the ball on 63% of their plays so far this year. Tennessee's defense is much improved from a couple years ago. The Volunteers are 5th in the nation in success rate allowed. They are 7th in defensive line yards. I think they could give the Alabama offensive line a tough time here. This total looks low when you consider what these two teams did last year, but these teams are very different than a year ago. I think the low total is justified. Take the under.
10-14-23	UAB v. UTSA OVER 64.5		20-41	Loss	-110	125 h 57 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The UTSA Roadrunners got their star quarterback Frank Harris back last Saturday. Harris had been badly banged up earlier this year and tried to play through it. He then had to sit out for a period of time. UTSA's offense finally looked like what we expected last weekend. UTSA put up 49 points and 7.3 yards per play in their win over Temple last weekend. UTSA's defense has disappointed this year. The secondary in particular lost a lot of talent from a year ago, and the drop off has been significant. Temple put up 542 yards in that 49-34 loss to UTSA last weekend. UAB has been throwing the ball a lot. Zeno is a quality quarterback for the Blazers. UAB ranks 19th in success rate on offense. They are throwing the ball on 53.6% of their offensive plays. UAB hasn't had a game against an FBS opponent finish with less than 58 points total this year. Two of their four against FBS opponents finished with 81 and 84 points. The UAB defense is extremely weak. They are 130th in success rate allowed. They have allowed 35 points or more in every game against an FBS opponent this season. A fast track here for two offenses ranking in the top 20 in tempo. Take the over.
10-14-23	UCLA v. Oregon State UNDER 55.5		24-36	Loss	-110	80 h 41 m	Show
3 Star Play Under Oregon State is 105th in the nation in tempo. 56.5% of their plays on offense are a run. I think they want to establish the run in this one. Oregon State is a good run defense (3.21 ypc) on the year. Oregon State should at least hold its own against the run of UCLA. UCLA’s Dante Moore is capable of big things, but Chip Kelly doesn’t look like he fully trusts him yet.. He also has an OLine that isn’t pass protecting well. 110th in pass blocking grade. I knew the UCLA defensive front was good, but I didn’t expect them to shut down a great passing attack like Washington State last week. Washington State had a 19%!!! Success rate on passing downs last week. UCLA is 1st in the nation in yards per play allowed. They have a 93.2 PFF overall defense grade. 2nd best in the country. UCLA 6th in explosiveness allowed. An excellent defense so far this year. UCLA hasn’t played a game against an FBS opponent this year that finished with more than 45 total points. I’m on the under.
10-14-23	Wyoming v. Air Force UNDER 45		27-34	Loss	-110	139 h 21 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Air Force Falcons are 133rd in tempo out of 133 teams in the country. They are running the football on 94% of their offensive plays. With the new clock rules, the Air Force games are really going to move quickly. There aren't many possessions in their games. The Falcons have only faced one good run defense (Sam Houston) and that game was 13-3. Wyoming has played against some pretty good offenses this year, and I tend to think the Wyoming defense is a little better than their year to date stats look. Craig Bohl's teams have a history of being very good at defending the triple option as well. Andrew Peasley isn't a good quarterback. He just had a fantastic game against Fresno State, but I don't expect to see a repeat of that. Air Force is 4th in yards per play allowed this year. The Falcons are a veteran defense that does not give up big plays. The last three meetings between these two teams were 20-6, 24-14, and 17-14. I don't see any reason to expect this one to be a higher scoring game. Take the under.
10-14-23	Bowling Green v. Buffalo UNDER 45.5		24-14	Win	100	76 h 5 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The weather forecast in this one calls for rain throughout the day on Saturday and sustained winds of 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph. That is significant enough to change the way the game is played. Buffalo prefers to throw the football, but they are unlikely to be able to throw it downfield much in this weather. Buffalo is averaging just 3.51 ypc (111th in the country). Bowling Green should be able to cheat up in the box to stop the run more here. Bowling Green on offense is 118th in success rate so far this year. The Falcons are 99th in success rate in the running game. Buffalo's run defense is 51st in success rate allowed on the ground. PFF grades Buffalo as the 31st ranked run defense in the country. With the weather and game plans being changed by it, I'll take the under.
10-14-23	Troy v. Army UNDER 43.5		19-0	Win	100	73 h 56 m	Show
3 Star Play Under These two teams met last year and the final was Troy 10 Army 9. While I don't expect a game that low again, I do think this total is too high. Army is 131st in pace of play this year. They run the ball on 75% of their plays on offense. Army is going up a Troy defense that is ranked #7 in the country in run defense by PFF. Troy is 12th in the nation in yards per carry allowed. I think Army will find it hard to move the football here. Troy's offensive line is their biggest weakness. They get too many big negative plays and get behind the sticks. The weather is an extra help here too. The forecast calls for half an inch or more of rain during the day at West Point. Winds of 10-12 mph are expected as well. There should be even less of a downfield passing attack from these two teams based on the weather. Expect a lot of running and the clock to keep ticking here. Take the under.
10-14-23	Texas A&M v. Tennessee UNDER 55.5		13-20	Win	100	26 h 7 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Tennessee Volunteers offense hasn't been nearly as explosive or consistently good this year. Hendon Hooker was a perfect fit for the offense, and to this point Joe Milton really hasn't been. Milton can make a highlight play once in a while, but his passing efficiency numbers are very poor. He hasn't been able to stretch the field, and now without Bru McCoy the wide receivers aren't nearly as good. Tennessee will want to run the football here, but Texas A&M is 6th in YPC allowed. Tennessee and Texas A&M have both been excellent at getting into the backfield and creating big negative plays with their front seven. I think it will be tough for the offenses to stay ahead of schedule here. The Volunteers defense is much better than it was a couple years ago. Tennessee ranks 10th in the nation in success rate allowed. The weather should be a bit of a boost here for the under too. A chance of showers (not much rain) and winds of 17 mph with gusts to 28 mph is the average of four forecasts here. Those kinds of winds are the key. It should help keep the play calling a bit more conservative. Take the under.
10-14-23	Navy v. Charlotte UNDER 45		14-0	Win	100	24 h 18 m	Show
4 Star Play Under Charlotte’s biggest strength as a team is their defensive line. Biff Poggi is a unique guy and he knows defense. I think Charlotte is better suited to slow down the unique option that Navy is running than most teams. I know Navy isn’t just a triple option team now, but let’s be honest they are definitely still an option team.. They have run the ball on 79% of their offensive plays this year. Navy is 123rd out of 133 teams in tempo. With all those running plays and the new clock rules, the clock will keep moving a lot when they have the ball. Even if they score it should take a lot of time off the clock. Charlotte is running the ball on 58% of their offensive plays. I think they want it to be even higher than that, but they have been down big in some games and had to start throwing it more. Charlotte 115th in tempo. Conservative play calling from both teams and I don’t see many big plays from either side. A game that likely gets completed in 3 hours or less. I’ll take the under expecting a 21-17 type game.
10-14-23	Kent State v. Eastern Michigan UNDER 45.5		14-28	Win	100	132 h 13 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Eastern Michigan Eagles are 132nd out of 133 teams in the country in offensive explosiveness. Kent State's defense isn't good, but they have been burned by big plays quite a bit. Eastern Michigan hasn't proven capable of getting big gainers consistently even against weaker defenses. Eastern Michigan is 125th in tempo, and the Eagles run the ball a lot. They use up a bunch of time on their drives. Austin Smith isn't a good passer and the opposing defenses have started to figure out that Eastern Michigan is a weak downfield passing team. Kent State's offense is awful. The Golden Flashes are 132nd in the nation in yards per play. Kent State is running the ball on nearly 65% of their plays, but they are 131st in rushing play success rate. Eastern Michigan is 15th in explosiveness allowed. The Eagles aren't likely to give up big plays here. The long range weather forecast calls for showers and sustained winds during this game. I'm going to go ahead and bet the under as I expect a move down during the week. Take the under.
10-07-23	Oregon State v. California UNDER 52		52-40	Loss	-110	76 h 38 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Oregon State Beavers rank 4th in yards per carry allowed on the season. Cal's offense is heavily reliant on the running game. Jadyn Ott is a good running back, but the Cal offensive line is 120th at PFF in run blocking grade. I think Cal will find it difficult to get things going on the ground in this one. Oregon State is 90th in tempo, and the Beavers want to run the football. Cal is 35th in YPC allowed. Oregon State's passing attack has not been explosive. Musgrave was a big loss for the Oregon State offense. The main guys Oregon State can lean on is Fenwick and Martinez at running back. DJU has been pretty good at QB, but the offense appears designed to play it relatively safe with him in the passing game. Oregon State's battle with SD State finished with 35 points total. Oregon State and Utah finished with 28 points total. Cal played a 14-10 game against Auburn. They also just finished with only 4.2 yards per play in a 24-21 win over Arizona State. Take the under here.
10-07-23	San Jose State v. Boise State OVER 57		27-35	Win	100	32 h 55 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Boise State Broncos are going to give both Taylen Green and Maddux Madsen playing time at quarterback in this one. Boise State has put up 42, 34, and 32 points in their last three games. The Broncos have a star running back in Jeanty, and both of the quarterbacks are playing well. Boise State ranks 14th in the nation in rushing play success rate. San Jose State's defense ranks 121st in rushing play success rate allowed. San Jose State has a pretty good offense led by Cordeiro at quarterback. The Spartans should have the ability to throw it fairly well against a Boise State secondary that is way down from a year ago. The Spartans put up 6.8 YPP against a solid Air Force defense in their last game. Boise State ranks 129th in the nation in YPP allowed on the season. The total has come down a bit here, and I will side with the over. The weather here looks perfect for this contest. Take the over.
10-07-23	Notre Dame v. Louisville UNDER 54.5		20-33	Win	100	68 h 53 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Louisville Cardinals offense has been feast or famine so far this year. Louisville is all about breaking explosive plays. Louisville has broken 22 plays of 30 yards or more on the season. They are 20th in explosiveness on offense this year. Their defenses faced are: GA Tech, Murray State, Indiana, Boston College, NC State. Of those five defenses, not a single one of them is ranked in the top 65 in the country in yards per play allowed. Notre Dame is 10th in yards per play allowed. Notre Dame's defense is designed to not give up big plays. The Fighting Irish have allowed only 52 plays of 10 yards ore more in five games. The Notre Dame secondary is the best Louisville has played, and the the Fighting Irish run defense is very strong. Louisville's Jack Plummer has looked bad when under pressure and I think he'll get heat in this one. Louisville's defense is 20th in success rate allowed this season. The Notre Dame offense is at their best when running the football and taking time off the clock. Notre Dame's wide receivers are the weakness of the team and they are shorthanded right now too. Notre Dame has been in two low scoring contests in the last two weeks. This one should be higher than those two, but I like to stay lower than this posted total. Take the under here.
10-07-23	Old Dominion v. Southern Miss OVER 55		17-13	Loss	-110	115 h 12 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Old Dominion Monarchs offense is a completely new system this year under new OC Kevin Decker. Decker's teams at Fordham set all kinds of records for scoring. His innovative sets were constantly applauded by other FCS teams. Decker is doing a nice job with Old Dominion's offense too. Old Dominion is flying up and down the field with their new uptempo system. Old Dominion is 11th in tempo in the country (out of 133). Old Dominion just put up 41 points and 8.0 yards per play on a good Marshall defense last week. They have only had one low scoring game this year and that was their game against FCS Texas A&M Commerce. That game was played in very poor weather conditions. Southern Miss previously had a very good defense, but the Golden Eagles defense is a clear weakness now. They are 130th out of 133 in the country in yards per play allowed at 6.99. They have managed to give up 17 plays of 30 yards or more already this season. Old Dominion is going to get some explosive plays here. Southern Miss is better on offense than they have been in recent years. Old Dominion has played a weak schedule of opposing offenses, and I believe the Monarchs defense is still fairly weak. This one has dropped to a key number here and I'll side with the over. Take the over. This line has moved up some during the week. I would play this up to 59, but not higher than that. Thanks and good luck
10-07-23	South Florida v. UAB OVER 65.5		35-56	Win	100	136 h 20 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The USF Bulls brought in Alex Golesh in the offseason as their new head coach. In the offseason he said an extremely high priority for the team was pushing the pace to the extreme this year. USF ranks 5th in the nation in tempo so far this year. The USF offense wasn't firing on all cylinders right away, but there are great signs the last couple weeks. USF put up 42 points and 8.5 yards per play two weeks ago on Rice. This past weekend they put up 435 yards and 44 points on Navy. They now go against a UAB defense that grades out as worse than Rice or Navy on defense. UAB is playing very fast under Trent Dilfer too. UAB ranks 13th in the nation in tempo. The Blazers have played two really good defenses the last two weeks in Georgia and Tulane. They put up a solid 21 on Georgia and 23 on Tulane. UAB is throwing the ball on 57% of pass plays, and the USF secondary is a clear weakness. The pace will be there and I think both teams will put up a big number. Take the over. This line has moved up some since earlier in the week. I would play this for a 4 star rating up to 69 points and for 3 stars at anything higher than that. Thanks and good luck.
10-07-23	Kent State v. Ohio UNDER 47		17-42	Loss	-110	134 h 13 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Ohio Bobcats defense has really impressed me this season. Ohio is 12th in the nation in yards per play allowed. In their last three games against Florida Atlantic, Iowa State, and Bowling Green they have allowed a total of 24 points. Against FAU, the defense gave up no touchdowns. The FAU touchdown was a pick six. Holding a Big 12 team to 7 points is excellent. Bowling Green just went to GA Tech and won too. Kent State's offense is 132nd in the nation in yards per play. The Golden Flashes have very little chance of having any true success on offense in this game. Ohio's defense is too good. The question is- how many points will Ohio score? Ohio's offense is just 121st in yards per play so far this year. I do think they'll have success against Kent State's weak defense in general. However, Ohio has shown a strong tendency to slow the pace and not run up the score when they have a big lead. Ohio has won two games by 17 or more. They haven't scored a single point in the fourth quarter of either of those games. Ohio is 122nd in the nation in tempo. In the Bowling Green game where they had a big lead, they played one of the slowest tempos of any team in a game this season. Kent State likely struggles to get to 10. Ohio has bigger fish to fry and I'm not convinced they'll try to run up the score. The long range forecast shows some winds in the 15 or 20 mph range here too. Take the under. This one has moved down a bit during the week with the news of the weather being windy. I would play this for 4 stars down to 45, and for 3 stars lower than that. Thanks and good luck.
10-07-23	North Texas v. Navy OVER 59		24-27	Loss	-110	134 h 13 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The North Texas Mean Green have played four games so far this year. The total scores in those four games finished at: 79 points, 75 points, 77 points, and 76 points. North Texas is 16th in the nation in tempo. The Mean Green will push the pace all through the season. North Texas is 17th in the nation in explosiveness on offense. North Texas is averaging a nice 6.41 yards per play on offense. They are up against a Navy defense that ranks 118th in the nation in success rate allowed. The North Texas defense is arguably the worst in the nation. North Texas allowed 46 points against a brutal FIU offense. They are 127th in the nation in yards per play allowed at 6.75. Navy's offense is 44th in the nation in yards per carry. North Texas is dead last in the nation in yards per carry allowed at 5.88 ypc allowed. The Mean Green are likely to get burned by the option quite a few times here. Navy's Horvath has shown the capability to throw a few decent deep passes the last couple games too. With the two weak defenses, I have to go over this number. Take the over.
09-30-23	Texas State v. Southern Miss OVER 59		50-36	Win	100	28 h 52 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Texas State Bobcats are a team I circled in the preseason that I wanted to bet a lot of overs on. GJ Kinne has completely changed the way this team plays. They brought in multiple good QB transfers. Texas State is 15th in tempo in the country. They will continually play as fast as possible. The Bobcats are very explosive on offense too. They already have 31 plays of 20 yards or more which is sixth most in the country. The Southern Miss defense was good in the past, but they are no longer good. Southern Miss lost star defensive coordinator Austin Armstrong to Florida, and they definitely miss him. The Golden Eagles just gave up 44 points to lowly Arkansas State. Southern Miss is 131st out of 133 teams in the country in explosiveness allowed. I think they'll give up big gainers here. The Southern Miss offense is 42nd in explosiveness and Texas State's defense is 116th in explosiveness allowed. Southern Miss does have 7 plays of 30 yards or more this year. Their passing game is a bit better than it has been. This number has been knocked down to a point where I have to bet this one to go over the total. Take the over.
09-30-23	Miami-OH v. Kent State OVER 47.5		23-3	Loss	-109	86 h 11 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Miami Redhawks have a really good quarterback in Brett Gabbert. Gabbert is being very aggressive with throwing the ball downfield this year. Gabbert has one of the highest average of depth of targets in the country at 13.2 yards per pass attempt. Gabbert is a good decision maker and he gets rid of the ball pretty quickly. Rashad Amos has been a pretty good running back for the Redhawks this year as well. This team has been able to have more balance so far this year. Miami is 9th in explosiveness on offense, and I think they'll bust several big gainers in this game. Kent State is a really bad team. The Golden Flashes defense has already allowed 12 plays of 30 yards or more on the season. The Kent State offense has looked a little better in recent weeks. They are up against a Miami defense that isn't as good as they have been in recent years. The Redhawks are 108th in YPP allowed. I don't think Kent State will score a lot here, but I think they can score enough. Miami's offense should have their way and this total has dropped to a number far below average in college football. Take the over.
09-30-23	Virginia v. Boston College OVER 54.5		24-27	Loss	-110	109 h 6 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Boston College Eagles offense is definitely better than I expected with Thomas Castellanos doing a good job making some big plays from the quarterback position. Castellanos can sometimes come up with some miracle plays that are big hitters. Boston College has 16 plays of 20 yards or more in two games in the ACC (FSU and Louisville). The Boston College defense is worse than anyone could have expected. They are 127th in yards per play allowed this year. They are 132nd in opposing QBR allowed. They have already allowed 14 plays of 30 yards or more on the season. This secondary is really bad. Virginia's Anthony Colandrea is quite the experience. He's a youngster who can make some things happen and takes chances. He also is more than capable of throwing a pick six at any point because he tries to throw into spots that just aren't there. The Cavs are 20th in explosiveness on offense, and it is primarily thanks to him going downfield as often as possible. The Virginia defense is far worse than a year ago. The Cavs are 128th in success rate allowed on defense. Boston College is 13th in tempo on the season. I think this total is a few points too low. Take the over.
09-30-23	Florida v. Kentucky UNDER 45.5		14-33	Loss	-110	32 h 19 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Florida Gators travel to Lexington to take on the Kentucky Wildcats on Saturday. This has the makings of a game with very few possessions because of the pace both teams play at this season. Florida is 128th in tempo and Kentucky is 115th in tempo. Both teams are taking more than 30 seconds between snaps. With the new rules in college football this year, teams like these two are going to be able to eat up quite a bit of clock in each drive. Austin Armstrong is a fantastic defensive coordinator. The Florida Gators defense is much improved this year. Florida is second in the nation in success rate allowed. They are creating pressure on the quarterback and Devin Leary isn't particularly mobile. Kentucky's defense has been solid for several years in a row. The Wildcats offense looks better on paper than it is because they really haven't been tested by a single good defense yet. Last year when these two teams met the two offenses struggled badly. They put up 4.4 and 4.3 yards per play in that game. Florida is definitely better on defense this year, and the Gators are playing slower on offense. A hard fought low scoring game. Take the under.
09-30-23	UL-Lafayette v. Minnesota OVER 48.5		24-35	Win	100	21 h 23 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Minnesota Golden Gophers aren't the same team they were a year ago. Minnesota had a top 10 defense in the country last year. Minnesota has only played one good offense so far this year (N Carolina) and yet they are 86th in the nation in yards per play allowed. Minnesota is 128th in third down defense. The Golden Gophers defensive front is far weaker than it has been in recent years. Louisiana has a good offensive line and a mobile quarterback who can make some big plays. The Ragin' Cajuns are averaging 6.26 ypc on the season. They have scored 31 points or more in each of their games so far this season. The Louisiana defense has allowed 38 points to Buffalo and 38 points to Old Dominion. I think Minnesota's games are being totaled too low right now based on their past history. This Minnesota team has a new OC who is playing somewhat faster and the Golden Gophers defense is far weaker. Take the over.
09-23-23	Akron v. Indiana UNDER 46		27-29	Loss	-110	126 h 6 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Indiana Hoosiers have wisely chosen to play a completely different way this season. Indiana is no longer playing as fast as possible. They are trying to run the football and play at a slower tempo. Tom Allen knows his team needs lower scoring games. Indiana ranks 109th out of 133 teams in the country in pace of play this season. Akron is 119th in tempo so far this year. They have been behind in every game too, so they have been unwilling to pick up the tempo even when they are playing from behind. Irons has been very bad at quarterback for Akron, and Undercuffler has been getting most of the snaps. He isn't good either. Akron has absolutely no ground game. They are averaging 1.63 yards per carry on the season. The Zips defense has been better than expected. Akron is allowing only 3.09 ypc on the season thus far. These two teams are 101st and 126th in explosiveness on offense. With a slow pace and the lack of explosive plays, I think this will be a lower scoring game. Take the under.
09-23-23	Duke v. Connecticut UNDER 45.5		41-7	Loss	-114	69 h 34 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The UConn Huskies were excited about Joe Fagnano starting as their quarterback for this season. He didn't get to play for long before he was injured. Fagnano is now out for the season. Roberson is back as the Huskies signal caller, and we have a lot of history on him. Roberson isn't very good and the team doesn't take many deep shots with him under center. UConn becomes very one dimensional on offense. The Huskies offense has been really weak this year. They are 124th in offensive success rate. Duke's defense ranks 4th in explosiveness allowed. The Blue Devils are built to not allow big plays. It is hard to imagine UConn putting together long scoring drives against anyone, and Duke is better defensively than most of UConn's opponents. The UConn Huskies defense is 23rd in explosiveness allowed. Duke is good on offense, but they are run heavy and do play at a slow pace. The weather here should be an issue. The average of four forecasts now calls for winds of about 15-18 mph and 1.5 to 2 inches of rain during the day. This should make both teams even more conservative on offense. Take the under.
09-23-23	Miami-FL v. Temple UNDER 49.5		41-7	Win	100	68 h 46 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The primary reason for this selection is the weather. Through the years college football games that are windy and rainy have been great to under bettors. Of course there can be a wide range of results, but on the whole it is a clear net positive for lower scoring games. Wind is the most important, but adding in rain to the wind makes it that much harder for the offenses. The average of four forecasts here calls for winds of about 21 or 22 mph. There should be sustained rain throughout this game as well. There are gusts of 30 or 35 in the forecast too. In this game, we have a Miami team that ranks 127th in the nation in pace. The Hurricanes have shown they are more than willing to slow the game down and let the clock run with the new rules implemented this year in college football. Temple is a very poor rushing team. If they can't have Warner throwing it around this offense just isn't very good at all. Both of these defenses have been pretty good this season. They should have an advantage in these conditions. Take the under.
09-23-23	Boston College v. Louisville OVER 54		28-56	Win	100	50 h 32 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Boston College defense has been awful this year. The Eagles allowed 7.3 YPP against Holy Cross a couple weeks ago. Last week Florida State put up 31 points on them with Jordan Travis banged up. It was also very windy in last week's contest. Boston College is playing very quickly. They rank 25th in the nation in tempo. The Eagles seem to have found a pretty good quarterback option in Castellanos. He has big play ability but can also turn it over. The Eagles putting up 29 points in the wind against FSU last week was a big step forward for the offense. Louisville's offense should be good with Jeff Brohm leading the way and Plummer at quarterback. The Cardinals are 10th in the nation at 7.44 YPP on offense thus far. Louisville wants to play quickly too. Louisville has quick strike ability in the passing game, and the BC secondary is a major weakness. The weather report for this one looks good. Take the over.
09-22-23	Wisconsin v. Purdue OVER 53		38-17	Win	100	67 h 47 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Purdue Boilermakers defense has disappointed so far this year. Their secondary isn't very good, and Purdue has been torched by the big play. The Boilermakers have allowed 22 plays of 20 yards or more. They have played Fresno State, Va Tech (terrible offensively), and Syracuse. Wisconsin has the most offensive talent of the teams Purdue has faced this year. The Badgers offense hasn't been great this year, but I expect improvement under Longo. Mordecai is an above average quarterback. With two star running backs who are also good pass catchers, Wisconsin has too many weapons for this Purdue defense. The Wisconsin defense is way down from a year ago. Wisconsin is 88th in success rate allowed so far this year. The Badgers secondary is down the most. Hudson Card and OC Graham Harrell should be able to move the ball and score on this Badgers defense. Wisconsin gave up 455 yards to GA Southern last week. If Davis Brin hadn't thrown all kinds of red zone interceptions, GA Southern would have scored a bunch of points in that one. These two are 40th and 42nd in tempo in the country. I think this total is a few points too low. Take the over.
09-16-23	Akron v. Kentucky UNDER 50		3-35	Win	100	41 h 45 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Akron Zips offense is in really bad shape. DJ Irons has played terribly and the team has no rushing attack. Akron just ran for a grand total of 4 yards against Morgan State last weekend! Akron needed a fluke defensive touchdown in the final seconds to win 24-21 over Morgan State last week. The Zips have had 279 and 270 yards of offense against Temple and Morgan State. Now, they go against a good SEC defense. I don't know if Akron can top 10 points here. Kentucky's offense hasn't been nearly as good as expected so far this year. Devin Leary has struggled and the offense has lacked explosive plays. The Wildcats only put up 28 points against Eastern Kentucky last weekend. These two teams both play very slowly. Two bottom 25 tempo teams with the new clock rules and Kentucky should have a large lead they are looking to sit on late in the game here. I think this total is a few points too high. Take the under.
09-16-23	UL-Lafayette v. UAB OVER 57.5		41-21	Win	100	124 h 42 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The UAB Blazers are a completely different team this year under Trent Dilfer. He has sped the team up drastically, and they are airing it out a lot on early downs. Overall, UAB has passed on 59% of their offensive plays, which is the 10th highest rate in the nation. UAB's offensive line isn't very good, but the Louisiana pass rush is weak. The Ragin' Cajuns secondary has allowed too many big plays as well. I think Jacob Zeno and company could hit several big plays on them throughout this game. Louisiana put up 38 on Northwestern State and 31 points on Old Dominion. The Ragin' Cajuns have veteran quarterbacks and a solid offensive line. Louisiana would have even more points this year were it not for poor red zone offense. They have two turnovers inside the 20 yard line already and have TD's on just 3 of 7 trips into the red zone. That should regress positively over time. The UAB defense was once a big strength, but they just allowed 49 points to GA Southern last week. This total is a few points lower than I made. Both of these teams are quite a bit different from last year and the oddsmakers often have a hard time adjusting on these teams. Take the over.
09-16-23	Tulane v. Southern Miss UNDER 50.5		21-3	Win	100	100 h 6 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Tulane Green Wave were not the same offense without Michael Pratt last week. Pratt has a knee injury and missed their 37-20 loss against Ole Miss. Pratt is still listed as questionable for this coming weekend, but there are signs he would either miss this coming weekend or be playing at far less than 100%. Pratt is key to the team without Tyjae Spears at running back like they had last year. Tulane only averaged 4.2 YPP against Ole Miss last weekend. Southern Miss was crushed by Florida State, but the Seminoles offense is going to make a lot of defenses look bad this year. Southern Miss is an above average defense. The Golden Eagles offensively are extremely reliant on Frank Gore Jr. in the running game. They simply cannot throw it well enough to keep defenses honest. Tulane's defense is led by new DC Shiel Wood who is a defensive mastermind. The front seven on defense has been stuffing the run extremely well for Tulane. I think they'll make Southern Miss throw it on them, and the Golden Eagles likely can't do that. Take the under here.
09-16-23	Wake Forest v. Old Dominion OVER 59.5		27-24	Loss	-110	132 h 20 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The Old Dominion Monarchs got a new offensive coordinator in the offseason. The former Fordham OC had record setting offenses that played lightning fast in FCS. Old Dominion is already moving very quickly so far this season. The Monarchs are 20th in tempo out of 133 teams. Old Dominion is also getting pretty good quarterback play from Wilson, the QB who was formerly at Fordham and is playing in the same offensive system now. The Monarchs put up 38 points against Louisiana last weekend. Old Dominion's defense is still very weak. They allowed 31 points against Louisiana, and they allowed 36 against a weak Virginia Tech Hokies offense too. Wake Forest always prefers to play fast on offense. They have scored 37 and 36 points in their first two games. The Demon Deacons have too much talent at the wide receiver spot for the ODU secondary to handle. The Demon Deacons defense gave up 6.7 yards per play against Vanderbilt. Two fast paced teams and I believe this one gets past the total. Take the over.
09-09-23	Auburn v. California OVER 54		14-10	Loss	-110	71 h 53 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Auburn Tigers offense is clearly going to be better this year. Peyton Thorne is at least a decent quarterback (not great) and Hugh Freeze is a terrific offensive mind. Auburn has very good running back depth, and the talent in the backfield is excellent. Cal's offense looks completely different this year. Jake Spavital is the new OC and he has this team running at a very fast tempo. Cal was top 35 in the country in tempo in week one and that is even with them winning 58-21 and slowing things down late in the game. This is a new look offense that will take some shots downfield, but they will also run the ball very well. Cal's Jaydn Ott is a star running back. Auburn allowed more than 5 yards per carry in the SEC last year. They allowed 5.15 ypc last week against UMass in their win. Ott is coming off a game where he averaged 9.4 ypc. He should break some big ones here. The Cal defense is much weaker on the defensive line than they have been in past years. They generate very little pass rush. They aren't very good at stuffing things in the middle. Auburn's run game should have success here. Auburn will want to play relatively quickly with Freeze. Cal is going to play fast. The number here has gotten too low. This isn't the same Cal team from the last few years. Take the over.
09-09-23	Texas v. Alabama UNDER 56.5		34-24	Loss	-110	124 h 15 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Alabama Crimson Tide should play quite a bit differently this year than they did a year ago. They no longer have star quarterback Bryce Young who is now an NFL starter. The Crimson Tide should run the football a lot more than they did in the past. I also expect them to play at a slower pace. A team that runs the ball a lot and plays at a slow pace is a team that could have quite a few less possessions under the new rule with the clock running after first downs other than the last two minutes of the half. I think Alabama is one of those teams. The Crimson Tide defense is excellent. In fact, I think the Alabama defense will be quite a bit better than a year ago. Texas is a really good team overall. I see very few weaknesses on the Longhorns team. I do think they will load up the box and do a solid job limiting explosive runs by Alabama here. Quinn Ewers has still been inaccurate on deeper throws, and the Alabama secondary is a strong unit led by McKinstry. I expect both defenses to be well prepared for this huge game in Tuscaloosa. I'll take the under here.
09-09-23	Middle Tennessee State v. Missouri UNDER 51.5		19-23	Win	100	124 h 20 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The MTSU Blue Raiders lost a ton on offense from last year. The Blue Raiders have a new quarterback who isn't very good, and an offensive line that will struggle against quality defensive fronts all season. MTSU was able to gain only 3.5 yards per play against Alabama. I'm not suggesting Missouri has a defense as good as Alabama, but the Tigers are very solid defensively. Missouri has some very good run stuffing defensive tackles. The Tigers should be able to do a great job against the MTSU run game. Missouri's offense isn't a big play offense, and they don't play at a very quick tempo. Missouri had only 3 plays of 20 yards or more against FCS team South Dakota in week one. The MTSU defense is good led by a strong defensive line. MTSU played at an extremely slow tempo against Alabama even though they were down big the entire game. I expect the Blue Raiders to keep that tempo slow in this one. Missouri put up 28 points in the first half against S Dakota, but only scored 7 in the second. The Tigers have been a team that has let up when up big in the second half in the past. Take the under here.
09-09-23	Marshall v. East Carolina UNDER 46		31-13	Win	100	98 h 35 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Marshall Thundering Herd defense has been excellent the last few seasons, and I expect it to continue to be that way with Huff as their head coach. Marshall has a really good defensive line that is especially good at stuffing the run. East Carolina is without Holton Ahlers who started at QB for four years for the Pirates, and there is a significant drop off to anyone they put under center this season. I expect East Carolina to play it safe with their offensive game plan. The single biggest strength of the entire East Carolina team is their run defense. Marshall wants to run the ball with Rasheen Ali, but I expect East Carolina to make it more difficult for them than most teams will be able to. Marshall's Cam Fancher isn't a guy I trust to make big plays. Fancher can scramble a bit, but he doesn't take many shots downfield. He is a dink and dunk type of quarterback. The new clock rules should matter more in a game like this where both teams lack big playmakers on offense, and they want to run the football a lot. Take the under here.
09-03-23	Oregon State v. San Jose State OVER 55		42-17	Win	100	97 h 3 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The San Jose State Spartans played a quick tempo last week against USC, and they put up 6.0 yards per play. While USC isn't a great defensive team, for the Spartans to put up those kind of numbers and have success offensively even in a neutral game state in the first half was impressive. Oregon State's offensive line is one of the best in the nation. Both Fenwick and Martinez are excellent running backs who are going to put up some big numbers this year. San Jose State's defensive line lost a ton of talent from last year. The Spartans are going to be much weaker on defense this season. DJ Uuiagalelei adds a dimension to the Oregon State offense too. Brian Lindgren is a great offensive coordinator and I like him to have a good plan set for this game. Oregon State's defense lost a lot from the secondary, and Speights is a big loss at linebacker as well. The Beavers are still decent defensively, but there is a clear drop off. San Jose State will push pace and hit some big plays here. Oregon State should consistently move the ball and put up a pretty big number here. Take the over in this one.
09-02-23	West Virginia v. Penn State UNDER 51.5		15-38	Loss	-105	150 h 27 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Penn State Nittany Lions have a fantastic defense. I think Penn State has the most talented defense in the Big Ten, and that is saying a lot with the talent Michigan and Ohio State have on defense. Penn State has the best secondary in the nation. The Nittany Lions have great linebackers as always, and their defensive line is elite at stopping the run. West Virginia has a new offensive coordinator in Chad Scott. It has been made clear in the offseason that the goal of this West Virginia new offense is to run the football and play with a much slower tempo. They will be helped in that regard by a pretty good offensive line and the new clock rules which will help them hold onto the football for longer. I am skeptical that they'll be able to score very many points here though against this excellent Nittany Lions defense. The Penn State offense has a new quarterback in Allar. I think he will be good in time, but the first game it wouldn't surprise me if they are a bit more cautious than normal. Penn State has good running backs and I think they'll run it plenty here. West Virginia's defense is better against the run than against the pass. Take the under here.
09-02-23	Texas State v. Baylor OVER 57.5		42-31	Win	100	341 h 15 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The Texas State Bobcats are going to have a whole new look this year. G.J. Kinne is their new head coach this season. He comes over from Incarnate Word where his teams were prolific offensively. Incarnate Word scored 55 points or more in seven of their games last year. Kinne is terrific at working with quarterbacks, and Texas State has an improved quarterback room this year with Hornsby and Finley. Kinne has been talking about ever since getting hired how much he wants the team to push the tempo of the game. All of their practices have emphasized playing as fast as they can. I expect them to be moving at a very quick pace here in game one. Baylor's offense should be too much for a weak Texas State defense. The defensive line and linebackers are both badly outmanned here. Texas State is going to struggle on defense even in the Sun Belt, and Baylor should be able to put up a big number on them in this one. The Baylor defense wasn't elite last year, and on paper they are less talented this year. Baylor is weak in the secondary and Texas State will look to go vertical quite a bit this year. I won't be surprised if Texas State hits some big gainers on Baylor here. This number has been pulled down because of the new rules, but I think the pace will be very quick here and I like the value on this one. Take the over.
09-02-23	California v. North Texas OVER 55.5		58-21	Win	100	280 h 16 m	Show
3 Star Play Over Both of these teams have new offensive coordinators. Both coordinators are expected to push the pace. Cal has the same head coach, but Justin Wilcox is on the hot seat and he decided he needed to switch things up and get rid of the antiquated offense. Jake Spavital was brought in to completely change things up on offense. Cal will play much quicker and look to take more shots down the field. The team upgraded at both wide receiver and tight end in the offseason. We don't know who will be the starting quarterback, but I think they have three pretty decent options. North Texas got Chandler Rogers to transfer in from UL Monroe. He may start or it could be Jace Ruder or possibly even Stone Earle. The Mean Green have three guys who are capable. Eric Morris was hired as the new head coach this year, and Morris will call the plays here. In the scrimmages this team has played significantly faster and they have thrown the ball much more. The Mean Green defense switched to a 3-3-5, but I don't like their secondary. Running a 3-3-5 with a weak secondary can lead to a lot of big plays given up. Cal's defense has good linebackers, but overall they aren't nearly as strong on defense as they were a few years ago. This one has been bet down below the key number of 56, and I'm going to side with the over. I expect the tempo to stay very quick in this one. Take the over.
09-01-23	Central Michigan v. Michigan State UNDER 47		7-31	Win	100	101 h 51 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Michigan State Spartans host the Central Michigan Chippewas on Friday night. Michigan State's defense is unique because they are very strong against the run, but terrible in the secondary. That makes this a good matchup for the defense. Central Michigan has one of the worst passing attacks in the country. The Chippewas will want to run it, but I think the Spartans defensive front will be too strong. Central Michigan's offense should be one of the worst in the MAC this year, but their defense is above average. They have a lot of veteran in the front seven on defense. Michigan State also has very little passing game, and the Spartans are going to want to run the football a lot. With the new clock rules- a game between two teams looking to run the football a lot will really move much quicker. Take the under here.
08-26-23	Florida International v. Louisiana Tech OVER 57		17-22	Loss	-110	31 h 46 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs have a very talented offense. Hank Bachmeier transferred in from Boise State, and he gives this team a big upgrade at quarterback. Last year, FIU beat LA Tech in double overtime 42-34. LA Tech had a third and fourth string quarterback under center for that game. This time around LA Tech has a very solid quarterback under center. He is also surrounded by very good skill position weapons. Smoke Harris is a star on the outside and on kick returns. The offensive line returns intact and should be improved. FIU's defense is overmatched in this one. The LA Tech defense allowed 6.12 yards per carry last year. That is just insane. FIU isn't that good offensively, but they do return their quarterback in James. The other thing that helps in a game like this for the over is FIU's willingness to take shots down the field and to go for it on 4th down. That is a clear positive for the over. The weather here is interesting. It is going to be very hot and humid on Saturday in Ruston. This game starting at night makes it a bit cooler, but gametime temperature is set to be in the upper 80's with high humidity as well. All trends show that heat has been a clear net positive for more scoring in college football in the last decade. Take the over.
01-02-23	Tulane v. USC OVER 64		46-45	Win	100	10 h 17 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Tulane Green Wave are led by star running back Tyjae Spears. Spears is averaging 8.9 yards per carry over his last seven games. Tulane's Michael Pratt has a 25/5 touchdown to interception ratio. The Green Wave are far more dynamic on offense than most believe. The USC defense has been bad all year. USC is 128th in success rate allowed against the run. The Trojans are 113th against the pass. If they aren't forcing loads of turnovers, they are giving up a bunch of yards and points. Tulane's defense has been hurt by the best offenses they have played. They are up against the most talented offense they have played all season here. Tulane's run defense is a particular concern here. USC's offensive line ranks 8th in offensive line yards. Tulane's defense ranks 100th in stuff rate and 118th in havoc. Caleb Williams is said to have healed up pretty well during the team's long break between games. USC should be able to put together quick scoring drives against a Tulane defense that is outmanned. Take the over.
12-31-22	Ohio State v. Georgia OVER 60.5		41-42	Win	100	558 h 54 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Georgia Bulldogs offense is far better than most give it credit for being. Georgia is 4th in the nation in offensive success rate. The Bulldogs are 7th in yards per play. They have 69 red zone scores in 71 trips into the red zone. In those 71 trips into the red zone, an impressive 48 possessions have ended in a touchdown. Ohio State's offense is 9th in the nation in success rate, but they are 2nd in the nation in yards per play. The Buckeyes have 40 plays of 30 yards or more on the season thus far. Ohio State's passing game should do some damage in this game. Georgia is 11th in QBR allowed, but the Bulldogs didn't face many really good passing attacks. LSU put up 505 passing yards on them in the SEC Championship game. The Buckeyes wide receivers are the best in the country, and C.J. Stroud should be able to hit some big gainers here. Ohio State gave up all kinds of explosive plays against Michigan, and the Buckeyes secondary is vulnerable. Stetson Bennett has improved a lot as a passer, and his ability to keep plays alive with his legs will bother Ohio State here too. Georgia's Brock Bowers is going to have a huge game here. I think both offenses will have success here. Take the over.
12-30-22	Maryland v. NC State UNDER 46		16-12	Win	100	21 h 50 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The NC State Wolfpack defense has been great all year. NC State does have a couple opt outs on defense, but the majority of their star studded defense decided to play here. I think NC State is motivated here, and I expect to see a good performance from this defense. Maryland's offense was good during the season, but the single biggest strength of the Terrapins was their deep group of talented receivers. Three of their top four receivers opted out of this game. The wide receivers are now unproven and that will make life tougher on Taulia Tagovailoa. The Maryland running game wasn't very good during the season, and NC State has a top ten defense against the run. The NC State offense hasn't gotten more than 5.0 YPP in a game since their win over UConn way back at the beginning of the season. They were the worst offense in the ACC. I don't expect them to come out and have a lot of success either. This should be a sloppy game throughout. Take the under.
12-20-22	Toledo v. Liberty UNDER 54.5		21-19	Win	100	77 h 12 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Toledo Rockets have the best defense in the MAC. The MAC is a league where there are loads of high scoring shootouts between a lot of teams who have virtually no defense. Toledo is by far and away the best defensive team in the league. They rank 12th in yards per play allowed on defense. They are 8th in the nation in success rate allowed. Liberty was a solid team defensively for much of the year as well. The Flames are 27th in YPP allowed and 10th in success rate allowed. Liberty's defense played poorly late in the season, but I think the players knew Freeze was out the door and now that he is actually gone it is more likely we see a more motivated Liberty team again. The two offenses have been very inconsistent. Both offensive lines have given up quite a few tackles for loss. The weather in Boca Raton calls for 15 mph winds and gusts of 25-30 mph during this game. The current forecast also calls for an 80% chance of rain during this game. I like the under some even with a normal weather setup, but if this weather comes to fruition it is a huge positive for the under. Take the under.
12-17-22	Louisville v. Cincinnati UNDER 43		24-7	Win	100	116 h 3 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Louisville Cardinals defense was underrated through the year this year. Louisville finished 40th in YPP allowed. The Cardinals sacked opponents a whopping 42 times on the season. They are an aggressive defense, but they still were a solid 52nd in explosiveness allowed. Malik Cunningham and Tiyon Evans have both opted out of this game. Cunningham was the guy that made things go for this Cardinals offense. He created big plays out of nothing. Evans was very efficient as well. Tyler Hudson is also not expected to play here. Louisville is without their head coach from the season as Satterfield goes over to Cincinnati. What a weird spot here in this bowl game. Cincinnati is also without their coach after Luke Fickell left for Wisconsin. The Bearcats are expected to be without Josh Whyte (TE) and Tre Tucker (WR). Their center also entered the transfer portal. Cincinnati's offense didn't end the season playing well. The Bearcats had just 4.9 YPP against Tulane and 5.0 YPP against Temple. Fenway Park is the site for this bowl game. The weather here calls for 10-20 mph winds through the game with even a small chance of rain/snow. Take the under here.
12-03-22	Kansas State v. TCU OVER 61.5		31-28	Loss	-110	44 h 43 m	Show
3 Star Play Over It's Kansas State vs. TCU in the Big 12 Conference Championship on Saturday afternoon at AT&T Stadium. The first game between these two was a wild one. Kansas State led 28-10 before TCU came storming back and won 38-28. At one point in that game, Kansas State was down to their third string QB (and that didn't go well). Will Howard is expected to get the majority of the playing time here. Howard has been playing great. He has 11 TD's and just 1 interception since the first meeting between these two. Howard threw for 225 yards on only 20 pass attempts in the first meeting with TCU. Kansas State is averaging 40.2 points per game in their last five games overall. The Wildcats have a big play guy in the backfield in Vaughn and he should have a big game here. On the other side, TCU is loaded and balanced on offense. Max Duggan is in the Heisman Trophy talk because he has been so consistently tremendous. TCU has been without their star wide receiver (Johnston) of late, but he is expected back and at 100% for this game. TCU is 9th in the country in yards per play on offense. They are 5th in the nation in explosiveness. On a fast track here I think both offenses will have a lot of success, and there should be big gainers coming from both sides. This should be a tight game, and overtime is a possibility as well. Take the over here.
11-26-22	Iowa State v. TCU UNDER 47.5		14-62	Loss	-110	25 h 13 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The TCU Horned Frogs are trying to keep their dream season going. TCU has been winning a bunch of close games of late. While their records wouldn't indicate this would be particularly close, Iowa State has an excellent defense. Iowa State is the best defense in the Big 12. The Cyclones are 12th in the nation in yards per play allowed. Iowa State has played seven straight games that have finished at 45 points total or fewer. Four of those seven games have finished at 34 points total or fewer. TCU's defense has improved a lot, and this is a well coached unit. Iowa State has the best defense in the Big 12 and the worst offense in the Big 12. Iowa State is 121st in the nation in ypc on the year. If TCU does get a decent lead here there isn't much incentive for them to run up the score. They'll have a very tough game next week in the Big 12 title game. There is 14 mph winds in the forecast here and a slight chance of rain during the game. Take the under.
11-26-22	Oregon v. Oregon State UNDER 59		34-38	Loss	-110	24 h 44 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Oregon State Beavers rank 126th in tempo in the country. They are running the football on nearly 62% of their offensive plays in Pac 12 contests. Oregon State has been far less explosive on offense with Gulbranson at quarterback, but he also doesn't make the big mistakes that Nolan was making. That has made this Oregon State team more of an under team than they were earlier in the year. Oregon's Bo Nix is banged up with an ankle injury. He only attempted one run last week against Utah. The Utes defense did a great job slowing down Oregon in that game. Oregon State's defense has been much better than Utah's on the whole this season. The Beavers are #1 in the Pac 12 in total defense. Though both offenses are solid, they are 97th and 115th in explosiveness on offense. Even the scoring drives should take some time here, and I think both defenses can get some holds in the red zone. Take the under in this rivalry game.
11-26-22	Troy v. Arkansas State UNDER 45.5		48-19	Loss	-110	25 h 9 m	Show
3 Star Play Under Troy has the best defense in the Sun Belt. The Trojans excel in not giving up big plays which I think is really key to a lower under. Troy is 10th in yards per play allowed on the season and they are 12th in preventing explosive plays. Arkansas State's offense is far less potent than it has been in recent years. The Red Wolves have also drastically slowed down their pace of play. Arkansas State is 79th out of 131 in tempo this year. Troy is even slower at 101st. The weather here should be a factor too. The forecast calls for 90 percent chance of rain and winds of about 15 mph with gusts to 20 mph. Both defenses are much better than the offenses in the run game. Expect more running than normal here thanks to the weather. Take the under.
11-26-22	Georgia State v. Marshall UNDER 50		23-28	Loss	-110	132 h 48 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Marshall Thundering Herd have seen no more than 49 total points scored in their last eight games. In 7 of their last 8, the combined total in the game has finished at 37 points or less. Their game that hit 49 points had two special teams touchdowns. Marshall is fantastic on the defensive side of the ball. The Thundering Herd rank second in the nation in success rate allowed. They are sixth in yards per play allowed. Georgia State runs the ball on 67% of their offensive plays. Marshall is allowing only 2.96 ypc on the season. Georgia State hasn't shown the ability to throw the ball around very often at all this year. Marshall's offense is very weak. Cam Fancher is a below average quarterback who doesn't take many shots down the field. The Thundering Herd will try to lean on their running game as well. Marshall ranks 130th out of 131 teams in the nation in offensive explosiveness. They'll run the ball a lot and their drives will take quite a bit of time. While Georgia State isn't great on defense, they do get in the backfield a lot. They are 42nd in defensive havoc caused by the front seven. Marshall's offensive line is 126th in the country in havoc allowed. Marshall should get behind the sticks quite a bit too. Take the under.
11-25-22	Baylor v. Texas UNDER 56		27-38	Loss	-110	42 h 60 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Texas Longhorns host the Baylor Bears on Friday in an early game in Austin the day after Thanksgiving. Texas has made some big strides on defense this year. The Longhorns are 26th in the nation in yards per play allowed. They are 27th in success rate allowed. Texas has occasionally given up big plays, but Baylor isn't a team that gets a lot of big plays this year with Blake Shapen at quarterback. Baylor is coached by a defensive mind in Dave Aranda. The Bears have only allowed 41 plays of 20 yards or more so far this year. They should be able to limit Texas' big plays better than most teams have. The weather should play a role in this game too. The current weather forecast calls for half an inch of rain during the game and winds of about 14 mph with gusts above 20 mph. That should make both teams more conservative and those conditions clearly benefit the under in the long run. Take the under here.
11-19-22	Georgia v. Kentucky UNDER 48.5		16-6	Win	100	25 h 21 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Kentucky Wildcats offense is really weak this year. The offensive line has been a major problem. Kentucky has allowed 39 sacks despite having far fewer plays than most teams in the country because of their slow pace. The Wildcats are averaging only 3.29 ypc on the year. They are up against the best run defense in the SEC here. Kentucky is 131st (slowest in the country) in tempo this year. The Wildcats are trying to run the ball and win with defense. Georgia is 108th in tempo, so the Bulldogs are fine with a slower paced game as well. Georgia's offense is very good, but the Bulldogs have shown to be willing to slow the game down and be conservative with a lead. I expect them to be playing from ahead by a solid margin here. I think Georgia slows things down even more and runs the football a lot in the second half. The weather here is a bit of a help for the under too. Sustained winds of 15 mph and gusts to 24 mph are in the forecast during this game. Take the under.
11-19-22	Illinois v. Michigan UNDER 44		17-19	Win	100	131 h 24 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Michigan Wolverines and Illinois Fighting Illini will square off in Ann Arbor on Saturday afternoon. Illinois star running back Chase Brown suffered a fairly major injury late in their loss to Purdue. Brown is the leading rusher in the nation so far this year, and to say an injury to him hurts the Illini is a big understatement. There isn't really an update on his status yet, but I would be surprised if he plays. If he does play here, Brown will be less than 100% and he will be up against an elite rushing defense. Michigan is 126th out of 131 teams in the country in tempo. The Wolverines are an excellent team, but they are content to run the football and slowly move the ball down the field. Michigan ranks 127th in explosiveness on offense in the country. The Illinois defense is second in the nation in rushing play success rate allowed. Michigan's defense is second in the nation in YPC allowed. The Wolverines defense is getting better as the season goes along. In Big Ten play, they are allowing only 2.33 ypc. The early forecast for this one calls for 20 mph sustained winds with a temperature in the 20's. That could make these teams even more conservative with the play calling. Take the under. As the weather conditions have become more clear that wind will be fairly significant the under has taken money. I would bet this for 4 stars down to 42 and a 3 star rating down to 40. Thank you
11-12-22	Alabama v. Ole Miss OVER 64.5		30-24	Loss	-110	25 h 51 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Alabama run defense has been much weaker in recent weeks. Alabama has shown some weakness especially against mobile quarterbacks and run games that use tempo. Jaxson Dart is mobile enough to do some damage, and we know Ole Miss plays quickly. Ole Miss is third in the nation in tempo this year. They are playing faster than Tennessee. The Rebels have two star running backs in Judkins and Evans. I think both of them can have some success here. Dart is inconsistent at quarterback, but he has an average depth of target of about 11 yards so he takes a lot of shots down the field. Dart is capable of hitting some big gainers against this Alabama secondary that has been prone to giving up the long ball. The Alabama offense should be able to move the ball all over this weak Ole Miss defense. Early in the year they looked much improved, but this defense has completely fallen apart against any kind of decent competition. Look at their recent performances against Vanderbilt, Auburn, LSU, and Texas A&M for examples. They gave up 500 yards to LSU. They allowed 34 points against a very questionable Auburn offense. They let a terrible A&M offense score 28 points and roll up 480 yards. Bryce Young should have a huge day here. Take the over.
11-12-22	Appalachian State v. Marshall UNDER 48		21-28	Loss	-110	24 h 22 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Marshall Thundering Herd are a great under team. Marshall's defense ranks first in the entire country in success rate allowed. This is a really good group of defenders that has no clear weakness. Marshall is second in havoc created by the front seven. The Thundering Herd are allowing only 2.57 ypc on the season. Appalachian State prefers to run the ball. The Mountaineers have good running backs, but I think they will have more trouble running it in this game against this great front seven. App State has run the ball on 55.4% of their plays overall this year. Marshall's offense is a hot mess. Cam Fancher doesn't look downfield much at all. The Thundering Herd are running the ball on 63% of their plays in Sun Belt action. Though the Marshall run game is decent, opponents are now game planning for the run and loading up the box since Marshall isn't stretching the field. Marshall has played six straight games that have finished with a total of 37 points or fewer. Take the under.
11-12-22	Purdue v. Illinois UNDER 45.5		31-24	Loss	-110	116 h 34 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Illinois Fighting Illini haven't played a game that went over 44 total points all year. They probably will at some point, but I think this will be another low scoring contest. Purdue has had much lower scoring games on the road under Jeff Brohm than they have when playing at Ross Ade Stadium. The Boilermakers rely heavily on the passing game, and Illinois is first in the nation in opposing QBR allowed. Illinois wants to run the football and use up the clock. The Fighting Illini should be able to dictate a slow pace in this one as well. Early forecasts call for winds of 15-20 mph in this game. Take the under.
11-12-22	Vanderbilt v. Kentucky UNDER 49.5		24-21	Win	100	93 h 26 m	Show
3 Star Play Under I had been leaning strongly toward an under in this game to begin with, but now the news of AJ Swann being out for Vanderbilt has pushed me to bet the under in this one. Vanderbilt's offense was helped a lot by Swann's play making ability. Kentucky's defense has been fantastic all year. The Wildcats are 9th in the nation in defensive success rate allowed. In SEC play, only game for Kentucky has gone over this total and that was their loss to Tennessee. It only finished at a total of 50 points. The rest of the games have finished with: 42 points, 41 points, 38 points, 44 points, and 38 points. The Kentucky offense plays at the slowest tempo of any team in the country. Look for them to run the football a lot here and use up the clock. The weather could be a bit of a factor here as well. Winds of 15 mph with gusts to 22 mph are in the early forecast. Take the under.
11-05-22	Troy v. UL-Lafayette UNDER 43		23-17	Win	100	39 h 47 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Troy Trojans have the best defensive line in the Sun Belt. Troy is 13th in the nation in YPC allowed. They are also 18th in explosiveness allowed on defense, so they don't give up big plays very often. Louisiana has relied on big plays to score this year. The Ragin' Cajuns are just 112th in the nation in success rate on offense. They don't have the strong running game they have had in recent years. The Troy offense isn't good at all. They have been running the ball more lately, but they are averaging only 2.75 ypc. The Louisiana secondary is top 15 in PFF coverage grade rankings. Troy's pace of play has slowed down drastically in conference play. They are using more than 30 seconds between snaps and they have slowed their pace down more than 2 seconds compared to their average pace in the non-conference. Louisiana has seen 4 of its 8 games finish with 38 total points or fewer. Troy has seen 4 of its last 5 games finish at 37 points or fewer. Take the under here.
11-05-22	Marshall v. Old Dominion UNDER 47		12-0	Win	100	18 h 17 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Marshall Thundering Herd are a really good under team. Marshall is a really poor offensive team. They rank 128th out of 131 teams in the country in terms of explosiveness. They also are just 113th in success rate. Marshall has been held to 13 points or fewer in three of their last five contests. On the other side, the Marshall defense is tremendous. The Thundering Herd defense is allowing only 4.48 yards per play this year (7th in the country). They rank third in the nation in success rate allowed. Marshall has allowed 16 points or fewer in three of their last five contests. The Thundering Herd rank second in defensive havoc created by the front seven. Old Dominion's offense has looked good in the Sun Belt action so far, but they have played weak defenses. Arkansas State, Georgia Southern, Coastal Carolina, and Georgia State are all much worse than average defenses. Now, they take on the best overall defense in the Sun Belt. Old Dominion played a couple low scoring games earlier against quality defenses with a poor offense. Their games against Virginia and Virginia Tech stayed well below the number. Take the under here.
11-05-22	Kentucky v. Missouri UNDER 43.5		21-17	Win	100	119 h 52 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Missouri Tigers defense has been better than anyone could have possibly expected. Missouri ranks 14th in success rate allowed on defense so far this year. Missouri is 12th in success rate allowed against the run. Kentucky will want to run the ball as much as possible. In SEC play, Kentucky is running it on nearly 61% of their offensive plays. The Wildcats are also dead last in the nation in tempo (131st out of 131). Kentucky is only averaging 3.31 ypc in SEC action. Their offensive line is much weaker than it was a year ago. Kentucky's defense has been excellent this year. The Wildcats rank 12th in success rate allowed. Missouri's offense has slowed their tempo drastically in conference play. The Tigers rank only 101st in explosiveness on offense as well. The long range weather forecast calls for 15 mph winds and a chance of rain here. I like the under even without any help from the weather, but this would be a bonus for the under as well. I think this one stays low scoring. Take the under.
11-05-22	Iowa v. Purdue UNDER 42		24-3	Win	100	92 h 44 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The weather forecast in West Lafayette is pretty wild for this one. A blend of three different forecasts calls for 25 mph sustained winds with gusts of about 30-32 mph during this one. There is also a good chance of rain during the game. The wind is the big deal here, but any rain added in is also a plus. Iowa is an under team through and through. This Hawkeyes defense is elite. The Hawkeyes offense is awful. Iowa plays at an extremely slow tempo. How good is the defense? Iowa is YPC allowed on the season. They are 13th in opponent QBR. Purdue is 29th in YPC allowed this year. The secondary is a little weak, but Iowa isn't a team that can take advantage of that. Both teams should be playing far more conservatively if the weather forecast is even close to correct here. Purdue is a great passing team, but their run game averages only 3.45 ypc in Big Ten play. Iowa averages just 2.9 yards per carry. Two good run defenses and a lot of running clock here. Take the under.
11-05-22	Maryland v. Wisconsin UNDER 49.5		10-23	Win	100	34 h 56 m	Show
3 Star Play Under I have kept an eye on this game and the weather report throughout the week. I didn't want to fire on this one too early since I wouldn't want to bet under this number without the help of weather conditions to keep the scoring down. Checking from 8 different weather sources, there is a solid consensus now that the winds during this game will be very intense. The National Weather Service, which I consider one of the best weather resources out there, has upped their wind forecast for this game as the week has gone along. They are calling for sustained winds of about 25-28 mph throughout this game with gusts of 45 or even 50 mph. That kind of weather changes a game in a big way. Maryland has an explosive passing attack, but if this weather forecast is even close to right it will make Maryland more conservative in their play calling. The Terrapins aren't great at running the football. Wisconsin's passing attack has occasionally worked of late in the play action passes. Expect less of that here with Maryland loading up the box. Does the wind matter? The answer is absolutely yes. I ran a query and found the following: Games with an average wind speed of 20 mph and an average temperature lower than 60 degrees have gone a whopping 52-13 to the under in the last 15 years. That's an 80% win rate. Take the under here.
10-29-22	Coastal Carolina v. Marshall UNDER 56.5		24-13	Win	100	39 h 49 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Marshall Thundering Herd have one of the best defenses in the country. Marshall is 9th in YPP Allowed and 3rd in success rate allowed. The Thundering Herd are third in the country in defensive havoc created by the front seven. They should be in the Coastal Carolina backfield quite a bit in this one. Coastal Carolina has been a high scoring team much of the season, but this is the best defense they have faced on the season. Coastal Carolina moves at a very slow pace. They rank 107th in the nation in tempo. The Chanticleers run on 57.5% of their plays on the season. Marshall's offense is a mess. The Thundering Herd are 128th in the nation in explosiveness. They are 126th in passing play success rate. They will try to run it early and often. They are running the ball on 65% of their plays in Sun Belt action. This number has been bumped up enough that I have to back the under here. Coastal Carolina carries some risk to unders, but Marshall has been an under machine. I'll count on Marshall to keep this one down. Take the under.
10-29-22	Illinois v. Nebraska UNDER 51.5		26-9	Win	100	120 h 33 m	Show
3 Star Play Under Illinois is a far better defense than many people have given them credit for being. Ryan Walters is an excellent defensive coordinator, and he has really taken this Illinois team upward with his great defensive schemes. Illinois hasn't had a game this year above 44 total points. The Fighting Illini are playing a faster paced opponent here, so I understand the total being set higher, but I still like the value on the under in this one. Nebraska's offense hasn't played a defense even close to this good so far this year. The Cornhuskers will likely have a hard time getting into rhythm and I don't think we'll see many explosive plays. Illinois is primarily about the running game. Chase Brown is really good and he'll get his yards here, but the Nebraska defense has improved quite a bit in run defense in the conference. Take the under here.
10-29-22	Oregon v. California OVER 57		42-24	Win	100	22 h 23 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Oregon Ducks offense has outperformed all expectations so far this year. Kenny Dillingham is doing a tremendous job with this unit. Bo Nix is having a better season than anyone could possibly predict. Oregon ranks 2nd in the nation in success rate. The Ducks are averaging 7.09 yards per play. They are averaging 6.14 ypc (2nd in the country). The Cal defense that is usually very strong is much weaker than normal this year. Cal is 117th in the nation in rushing play success rate allowed. Oregon should have a bunch of success running the ball. In Pac 12 play, Cal is allowing 6.08 yards per play. The Oregon defense isn't as good as it was expected to be. The Ducks are 97th in yards per play allowed. They are 100th in defensive success rate allowed. They are worst against the pass (115th in success rate allowed). Cal should be in passing situations quite a bit in a big underdog role in this game. Look for Oregon to move the ball easily here and Cal will get enough to put it over. Take the over in this one.
10-29-22	Rutgers v. Minnesota UNDER 41		0-31	Win	100	34 h 20 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Rutgers Scarlet Knights defense has been very good this year. Rutgers has seen 4 of its last 5 games finish at 41 points or lower. The only game to go over this total was their meeting with Ohio State. Minnesota is clearly nothing like Ohio State. Rutgers is 10th in YPP allowed on the season. As good as the Rutgers defense is, the offense is that bad. Rutgers is 110th in YPP on offense. They have scored 16 points or fewer in four of their last five games. Rutgers has been held to 10, 10, and 13 against Ohio State, Iowa, and Nebraska. The Minnesota offense is extremely run heavy. Minnesota is running it on 65% of their offensive plays on the season. Rutgers has been especially strong against the run this year. Tanner Morgan is questionable for Minnesota here as well. Rutgers is 114th in tempo and Minnesota is 128th. The clock should be rolling here and I don't expect to see many possessions. Take the under.
10-29-22	Arkansas v. Auburn OVER 61		41-27	Win	100	92 h 24 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Arkansas Razorbacks offense is very explosive. They just put up 52 points at BYU. Arkansas is elite in the running game, and that will be a big problem. The Auburn run defense is 97th out of 131 teams in the country in rushing play success rate allowed. Auburn is allowing 5.4 yards per carry in SEC action. KJ Jefferson is good enough in the passing game to keep Auburn honest in the secondary as well. Auburn's offense has been far more explosive than most would expect. The Tigers rank 4th in the country in explosiveness. The Tigers have a great weapon in Tank Bigsby. Arkansas has virtually no shot at stopping him. The Razorbacks run defense is 122nd in the country in rushing defense success rate allowed. Ashford has been decent at quarterback for Auburn. He is capable of big plays either way. He could throw a pick six or he could hit a deep pass. Arkansas is 128th in explosiveness allowed. Arkansas pushes the pace in a big way. The Razorbacks are 16th in pace of play in the country. I expect a lot of big plays in a tight high scoring contest. Take the over.
10-22-22	Southern Miss v. Texas State UNDER 45.5		20-14	Win	100	134 h 0 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Southern Miss Golden Eagles defense is a very good unit. Southern Miss is 19th in success rate allowed on defense this year. Southern Miss has given up only 8 plays of 30 yards or more as well, so they are also very good at preventing big plays. Texas State has slowed their pace of play down drastically this year. The Bobcats have usually been a top 25 tempo team under Spavital, but they are 83rd on the season. Their tempo they have played at in their three Sun Belt games is two seconds slower than they were playing in the non-conference slate as well so they have really shifted things down. Texas State is much improved on defense. The Bobcats are 30th at preventing big plays. They are allowing just 3.31 ypc in Sun Belt action. Texas State is a bit weaker in the secondary, but Southern Miss does have a weak passing attack. Both teams like to play slowly and I think they'll be several long drives that end in field goals here as well. Take the under.
10-22-22	Vanderbilt v. Missouri UNDER 53		14-17	Win	100	86 h 45 m	Show
3 Star Play Under I've really been impressed by the Missouri defense in their last few games. In their 3 SEC games they have allowed just 5.21 ypp. Those games were at Auburn, home against Georgia, and at Florida. Vanderbilt and Missouri have both slowed their tempo drastically in SEC play. Vanderbilt is using 30.51 seconds between plays on average (more than 2 seconds slower than in non-con action). Missouri is using 28.29 seconds between plays (about 1.5 seconds slower than in non-con action). The tempo should stay very slow in this contest. The weather here calls for 12 mph winds with gusts of 23 mph during the game. That should encourage a more conservative game plan. Vanderbilt has given up a lot of big plays through the air this year, but the weather and the conservative nature of the Missouri offense should help. The Missouri defense has really been much better against the run in recent games. A slower pace and some weather helping as well. Take the under.
10-22-22	Marshall v. James Madison UNDER 54.5		26-12	Win	100	133 h 31 m	Show
4 Star Play Under There is a lot working in the favor of delivering value on the under in this matchup. James Madison just played a 45-38 shootout against Georgia Southern. GA Southern is an extremely fast paced team who makes every game high scoring. James Madison is having a really good season. The Dukes have a good offense, but they haven't had to play a defense as good as Marshall yet. The Thundering Herd are second in the nation in ypc allowed. James Madison will move it through the air here, but they don't play terribly quickly. If they are playing from the lead late (they probably will be), they have shown to be very conservative and run the ball a lot. Marshall's offense has been absolutely awful, especially in their last few games. Marshall put up 2.5 YPP against Troy a couple games ago. They then put up just 276 yards and 4.2 YPP against Louisiana last week. They only found the end zone very late in the game when Louisiana had backed off into a prevent defense. James Madison is #1 in the nation in YPC allowed. Marshall is all about the run. The Thundering Herd are running the ball on 68.5% of their plays in Sun Belt action so far. I don't expect them to have much success at all. These two defenses are #2 and #4 in success rate allowed. This total is set too high. Take the under.

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