Sports Picks & Predictions

Rating: 2 Units

Right-hander Seth Lugo (5-1, 1.74 ERA) will make his ninth start of the season for Kansas City. He is 0-0 with a 1.23 ERA in two career games (one start) versus Los Angeles. Left-hander Patrick Sandoval (2-5, 4.85) will make his ninth start of the year for the Angels. Sandoval, the Angels' Opening Day starter, has been a disappointment so far in 2024. 

Rating: 2 Units

The Phillies are sending out one of their best pitchers, and Miami is sending out a player who has yet to make an appearance in 2024. Wheeler starts here for Philly, he is third the the majors in strikeout and 4th in ERA. He is stringing together a strong season, and the Phils have helped him out at the plate recently as they won four of his last five starts. Miami only has ten wins on the season, and they have lost their last five. Braxton Garrett gets the start here, and taking on the Phillies in the first start of the season is a tall task for any pitcher. Whether or not Schwarber plays, the Phils still have plenty of offensive firepower in Harper, Bohm and company. Philadelphia won both of the first games by at least five runs.

Rating: 2 Units

Off to a great start, Yankees right-hander Luis Gil (3-1, 2.92 ERA) will try to win his third consecutive start today. In the previous two victories, the 25-year-old Dominican allowed just one run and three hits over 12 1/3 innings. He posted 10 strikeouts and five walks and surrendered a homer to Houston's Kyle Tucker on Tuesday. In his only career appearance against the Rays, on April 21, Gil earned his first win of the season and second of his career by yielding just one unearned run and two hits in 5 2/3 frames. The Rays today will turn to left-hander Tyler Alexander (1-1, 4.96 ERA), who is 0-1 with a 2.03 ERA in four career appearances (two starts) against the Yankees.

Rating: 2 Units

The Angels are in a tailspin, trying to figure out how to survive without Trout and avoid the basement of the AL West. Meanwhile, the Royals are competitive in the AL Central, only a game and a half off the division lead. Tyler Anderson gets the start here for the Angels, he has the best ERA on the team, but they have still been losing games in his appearances lately. They lost their last five games with Anderson on the mound, and it has not been due to a lack of run production from their offense, as the Angels' offense scored five runs in two of his last three games. Ragans is on the mound for KC, and he is in the top ten in the league in strikeouts, he has a powerful arm and should be able to dissect this lineup. The Royals have been strong offensively, they are 8th in the majors in run production and will be able to win on the road against this struggling LA team.

Rating: 2 Units

The Marlins are going nowhere fast this season as it seems another rebuild is on the horizon. Miami has been beset by injuries with both Eury Perez and Sandy Alcantara recovering from Tommy John surgery while Luzardo along with Edward Cabrera have dealt with injuries themselves. The team dealt Luis Arraez to San Diego earlier this month, taking arguably their best player out of the mix for the rest of this season. Philadelphia has been hot this year and after a couple of rough starts, this seems like a prime chance for Walker to settle in and lower his metrics against a weak Miami lineup. Look for the Phillies to slug their way to a win here as Luzardo likely is going to be limited to avoid a return to the IL, allowing the visitors to take their hacks against a mediocre bullpen.

Rating: 2 Units

The Orioles have won their last three series and three of their last four home games. They have played well offensively at home, scoring more than five runs per game. Expect them to play well offensively in this game because they have hit the ball well against right-handers and Nelson has struggled on the mound for the Diamondbacks, giving up 13 runs in five starts. With Arizona having the seventh-worst bullpen in the league, they will have a hard time slowing down the Orioles in this game.  The Diamondbacks have won four of their last five road games. They are also playing well offensively and scored 15 runs in their last three games. But, they will struggle offensively in this game because Means was dominant in his first start of the season and didn’t give up a run in that game. He is backed up by the 10th-best bullpen in the league and won’t have trouble keeping Arizona’s offense in check. Go with Baltimore to cover the money line.

Rating: 2 Units

On the mound, the Phillies will turn to left-hander Ranger Suarez (6-0, 1.77 ERA) to start today's game. Thanks to an elite curve and a fastball that produces a high volume of ground balls, Suarez is 35-21 with a 3.25 ERA in his career. He is 4-2 with a 3.24 ERA in 18 career games (seven starts) versus the Marlins.  Miami will turn to left-hander Trevor Rogers (0-5, 6.15) to start today's game. Rogers, 26, is 5-18 since the start of 2022. The Marlins are winless when he starts this season (0-7). In nine career starts against the Phillies, Rogers is 1-5 with a 6.70 ERA.

Rating: 2 Units

The Orioles will try to keep things going with Cole Irvin (3-1, 2.86 ERA) heading to the mound trying to extend his streak of scoreless outings to four games. The left-hander has thrown a combined 20 shutout innings over his past three starts, winning all three. Baltimore won each of the past five times Irvin started. The Diamondbacks will send Brandon Pfaadt (1-2, 4.61) to the mound. He has gone six starts without a victory since he was the winning pitcher in his season debut March 31 against the Colorado Rockies. He gave up a season-high 10 hits in six-plus innings during a loss to the San Diego Padres on Saturday.

Rating: 2 Units

For most of Chicago's games, picking them to lose in uncompetitive fashion is the smart option. Erick Fedde has been their best starter, but the Guardians have already tagged him for five runs. The White Sox have a bullpen that issues a ton of walks, a dangerous formula against this Guardians lineup. Then, Cleveland's Ben Lively has been holding every offense under three runs this season. Chicago is already the only team that doesn't score at least three runs per game. Expect a blowout win in Cleveland's favor.

Rating: 2 Units

Lynn has been modestly effective for the Cardinals this season and has generally kept them in games that he has started. The Cardinals are 3-3 in Lynn's starts this season overall. One key factor has been Lynn's ability to keep the ball in the yard. After giving up 44 home runs last season, he has only given up five thus far on the season and kept his strikeout rate up. The Brewers' Myers has struggled to keep the ball in the yard, giving up five home runs in just 13 innings of work. He has an inflated ERA of 6.23 thus far and the Brewers are 0-3 in games he has started. I like the Cardinals to get a measure of revenge from their previous sweep at the hands of the Brewers and pick up the win.

Rating: 2 Units

Hunter Greene has been solid on the mound for the Reds, but his record does not reflect this. Greene still has a strong 3.12 ERA, but in his last four losses the Reds only scored three total runs. He was getting less than one run of offense per game in his starts, no wonder why he has a losing record. The same will not happen here, as Arizona is sending out Slade Cecconi to start. Cecconi is only making his fourth start of the year, in just three games he has given up three home runs, and has not had a single outing where he held the other team scoreless. In his last performance, he gave up two home runs and six runs in just four innings to the Padres. Cincinnati will be able to get their offensive groove back in this one, as De La Cruz and Steer are both having strong seasons thus far at the plate. Cincinnati is in an offensive slump, but they are still 16th in the MLB in run production, they are far from the worst offense. Cincy grabs the win here in the series finale.

Rating: 2 Units

Arizona's pitching is 22nd in team ERA and is allowing opposing hitters to average .255, which is 24th in the majors. Arizona starting pitcher Jordan Montgomery has struggled in three starts, allowing 10 earned runs in 16 innings, including six runs in three innings last Wednesday when losing to the Los Angeles Dodgers 8-0. Montgomery has a 1.31 WHIP and a -0.2 WAR. Cincinnati starter Graham Ashcraft has a 3.63 ERA and the right-hander has had two consecutive strong outings, giving up just 12 hits and three runs in 12.1 innings. Ashcraft’s WHIP is 1.27 and his WAR is 0.2.

Rating: 2 Units

Milwaukee has sputtered a bit of late with three straight losses before last nights late inning heroics. The Brewers are trying to figure out their rotation as they have issues with Brandon Woodruff not pitching at all this year, Corbin Burnes gone, Freddy Peralta facing a suspension and the back of the rotation guys struggling. Kansas City has a solid lineup and they have gotten stellar work from Singer this season. The Royals have put up a solid 14-8 mark at home on the year. With the advantage on the mound and a better lineup right now, you have to give the edge to the Royals in this contest.

Rating: 2 Units

National League Rookie of the Month Shota Imanaga will look to continue his stellar debut season when he takes the mound today for the Chicago Cubs against the visiting San Diego Padres. Imanaga (5-0, 0.78 ERA) has sparkled for Chicago since the 30-year-old joined the Cubs after eight seasons in Japan's top league. The left-hander has racked up 35 strikeouts and walked only four in 34 2/3 innings across his six starts this season, all of which Chicago has won. Set to oppose Imanaga on the mound is Randy Vasquez (0-1, 5.87), who will make his third start this season for the Padres. The right-hander was recalled from Triple-A El Paso on Sunday after San Diego placed Joe Musgrove on the 15-day injured list with right elbow inflammation. Vasquez last pitched for the Padres against the Rockies in Colorado on April 25. He surrendered four runs on six hits in 2 2/3 innings and earned a no-decision in San Diego's 10-9 loss.

Rating: 2 Units

Milwaukee's Colin Rea (3-0, 2.67 ERA) and Kansas City's Seth Lugo (5-1, 1.60) will take the mound today in a matchup of right-handers. Both pitchers have made one previous start against their Tuesday opponent, both going 3 2/3 innings in a no-decision last year. Rea allowed four runs on six hits, including a home run to Salvador Perez, with two walks with three strikeouts on May 14, 2023. He has a 7.71 ERA in two career appearances against the Royals. Seven of the eight runs Rea surrendered over his past four starts came via five long balls.  Lugo faced the Brewers on April 15, 2023, and he allowed three runs on eight hits and a walk with five strikeouts. For his career, he is 1-0 with a 2.16 ERA with nine appearances against the Brewers.

Rating: 2 Units

Nationals are coming off a series win over the Toronto Blue Jays and will look to surpass the .500 mark for the first time since July 1, 2021. Baltimore right-hander Corbin Burnes (3-1, 2.61 ERA) opposes Washington righty Trevor Williams (3-0, 2.27) in the opener. Williams has given up two earned runs or less in five of his six starts. He survived five hits and four walks against the World Series champion Texas Rangers on May 1, tossing five shutout innings in a 1-0 win. He escaped bases-loaded, no-out jams in the second and fifth innings.  He won his only career start against Baltimore, allowing a run in six innings.

Rating: 2 Units

The Mariners send their ace to the hill on Monday night against the Twins. Castillo has won three straight starts and has not allowed a run in two of those three starts. He was particularly sharp in his last start, holding the Atlanta Braves' powerful lineup to just three hits and no runs while striking out seven batters in a 3-2 Mariners win. While the Twins have hit the ball better during this hot streak, they do not have a murderer's row of a lineup. Castillo will keep his team in the game and get into the backend of the bullpen today. He has pitched six or more innings in each of his last four starts. The Twins starter, Woods-Richardson, is relatively inexperienced and has had things go in his favor thus far despite giving up more hits than innings pitched this season. His luck will run out in the opener of this series today and the Mariners will open the series with a win.

Rating: 2 Units

Cleveland sports a .417 slugging percentage and .739 OPS at home, with 20 of its 33 long balls coming at Progressive Field. That's despite playing five more road games this season. The Guardians don't strike out too much (seventh-fewest per game) and were only fanned four times by Flaherty in seven innings last year. He may be coming off a stellar performance, but I doubt he'll command the strike zone like he did versus the Cardinals. I expect McKenzie to pitch well against a Tigers club that didn't perform up to expectations over the weekend. Detroit slashes .223/.298/.339/.637 on the road and .220/.301/.356/.656 vs. right-handers this season, as well. He hasn't allowed more than two runs in any of seven career outings versus Detroit and has tallied eight-plus Ks in four appearances. Once he exits, Cleveland's bullpen (2nd in ERA with the fewest HR allowed) will close the door on the visitors!

Rating: 2 Units

The San Francisco Giants are struggling to win games due to the slumping offense. They have dropped five of their last six games. The Phillies have won nine of their last eleven games.  The Giants will have Mason Black make his MLB debut. While he has great numbers in the minor leagues this is not ideal against a potent offense. Philly starter, Zack Wheeler is a Cy Young candidate. The ace has been incredible, conceding only one run in his last three performances spanning 18.1 innings.

Rating: 2 Units

Offensively, these teams are about the same. That is to say, they're unreliable. As with Friday's matchup, whoever executes their pitches better will come out on top. Which is why the A's are the team to side with. Joe Boyle has pitched 10.0 innings and allowed two runs in his past two home starts. Miami's Sixto Sanchez has given up eight runs across his 6.2 innings pitched as a starter this season. Oakland may have MLB's most dangerous bullpen. Roll with the home team, who has a five-game winning streak, to come out on top in today's clash.

Rating: 2 Units

Right-hander Bryce Miller (3-2, 2.04 ERA) is the scheduled starter for Seattle today. He matched his career highs for innings (seven) and strikeouts (10) in his previous start, allowing one run on two hits and one walk in the Mariners' 2-1 win over the visiting Atlanta Braves on April 28. Miller ranks third among qualified pitchers with a .156 opponent batting average. Miller is 2-1 with a 2.20 ERA over three career starts against the Astros. He was the pitcher of record in the Mariners' 8-3 loss last Sept. 27 after allowing four runs on six hits and one walk with four strikeouts over four innings. Right-hander Hunter Brown (0-4, 9.78) has the starting assignment for the Astros. He allowed six runs on five hits and two walks with a season-high seven strikeouts over 5 1/3 innings but did not factor into the decision of the Astros' 10-9 win over the Cleveland Guardians on Tuesday. Brown threw 97 pitches against Cleveland, his most since a 97-pitch outing against the Baltimore Orioles on Aug. 10, when he absorbed a 5-4 road loss. Brown is 0-2 with a 17.47 ERA over two career starts against the Mariners. In his previous outing against Seattle, Brown allowed six runs on eight hits and two walks with five strikeouts over 2 2/3 innings in a 7-6 home loss on Aug. 20.

Rating: 2 Units

The Tigers have the better pitcher on the mound and have held a lead in both games of this series, they will finally be able to close one out here. Tarik Skubal has been strong on the mound for Detroit, he has a 4-0 record and is beating the Yankees' Cortes in all categories. Skubal has a lower ERA, has allowed fewer hits and home runs, and has more strikeouts. The Tigers have gone 4-1 in his last five starts, while the Yankees are 1-4 in Cortes' last five starts. The New York offense is very reliant on hitting home runs, and Skubal has only allowed two home runs all year. Detroit won four of their last five before starting this series, they are a strong team sending out one of their best starters, they won't get swept here.

Rating: 2 Units

Remember how the Reds' relievers are the worst at inducing grounders? That will bite them in the butt against a Baltimore batting order that has bashed more home runs than any other team. Great American Ball Park is the easiest venue to homer in so that matchup is a nightmare. John Means is an unknown for Baltimore when it comes to effectiveness, but his first start since last September won't last long. That just means more innings for a bullpen that's ninth in FIP. The Orioles can slow down Cincinnati enough to let the late comeback happen. Take the Orioles to win on the road.

Rating: 2 Units

The most reliable group in this game is Oakland's pitching staff. Paul Blackburn has a 1.42 ERA at home this season. The Athletics' bullpen is leading the majors in ERA. Against an offense that's 25th in scoring, the A's should silence Miami's bats. So, it's up to the A's to score enough runs to win. They're facing a pitcher who has allowed at least three runs in four of his six starts this season. The Marlins have a subpar bullpen. Using their surprising power, which has led to a top-10 homer total, Oakland will score enough to win.

Rating: 2 Units

The Blue Jays have struggled on the road where they are 1-4 in their last five games. They have also lost eight of their last ten games after the defeat on Friday night. The Nationals are looking good, winning five of their last seven bouts. While Kevin Gausman has been solid, the squad has not been winning games when he is on the mound, losing in four of his last five starts. The veteran has issued a poor 4.83 ERA against the Nationals in his career. Nats starter Jake Irvin has been outstanding, conceding two or fewer runs in three of his last four starts.

Rating: 2 Units

Red Sox right-hander Tanner Houck (3-2, 1.60 ERA) will look to continue his breakout season when he takes the mound in the series opener. Houck, 27, has walked five batters and struck out 41 in 39 1/3 innings this season. In three career starts against the Twins, Houck is 2-0 with a 3.12 ERA. He has walked five and struck out 17 in 17 1/3 innings. Minnesota will counter with right-hander Chris Paddack (2-1, 5.88), who is set to make his sixth start of the season. He has earned the victory in each of his past two starts, although he allowed four runs on eight hits in five innings in his most recent outing against the Angels. Paddack has faced Boston only once in his career, and it did not go well. He gave up six runs on seven hits in 2 1/3 innings, leaving him with an 0-1 record and a 23.14 ERA against the Red Sox.

Rating: 2 Units

Everything about this game screams Guardians victory. They're at home, with an offense that's fifth in scoring, against a pitching staff that gives up more than five runs per contest. Offensively, Cleveland shouldn't have any issues. Nor should their pitchers, starting with Tanner Bibee and his 2.96 April ERA. Cleveland is perfect in his outings this season. With a late lead, the Guardians will only turn to a bullpen that has been better than every other in 2024. 

Rating: 2 Units

Let's check the advantages for the Mets in this game. They average more runs. New York's starting pitcher has a better ERA and FIP. In the bullpen, Tampa hasn't been in the same league this season. Even their records at home (8-9 for the Rays) and on the road (7-5 for the Mets) favor the visiting team. New York is coming off a win, while the Rays have dropped five of six (eight of 10 to stretch it further). Take the Mets to win this one. 

Rating: 2 Units

There is a common bet trend to fade teams when it appears they will go for a bullpen game, with several different pitchers heading out to the mound for limited innings. The belief is that they do not have one of their powerful starting pitchers on the mound, and the backup team will get hammered by the opposing offense. It is not a bad thought, but it will not work here. Having a bullpen game is not a scary thought when your team literally has the best ERA in baseball. The Red Sox have the best ERA in the majors by a wide margin, as they have a 2.59 ERA and the next best is the Mariners at 3.03. Winckowski has started the past two bullpen games, only pitching in three innings, but both games were wins as they went 17-0 over the Cubs and 6-1 over the Pirates. On top of this, the Giants have been struggling to score lately, as they have scored three or less runs in five straight games. The best bullpen in baseball will flex its muscles here.

Rating: 2 Units

Chicago is right in the thick of the NL Central race as they get ready to open up their series with the Brewers Friday afternoon. The Cubs are missing several key pieces with Justin Steele, Kyle Hendricks, Drew Smyly and Jordan Wicks missing from the pitching staff while Cody Bellinger along with Seiya Suzuki are out of the lineup. Still, the Cubs still keep putting runs on the board and finding ways to hang in games. New York has struggled at putting runs on the board and Houser has had major issues when it comes to his control. Until we see him turn in a couple solid outings, you have to fade him accordingly. Give the Cubs the advantage here on getaway day.

Rating: 2 Units

Minnesota will continue its dominance of Chicago today. Soroka has been home-run prone in the past two seasons, allowing 16 home runs in 13 appearances. He will have a tough time keeping the Twins (30 HR) in the ballpark on a warm and breezy evening at Guaranteed Rate Field today. Minnesota scored 32 runs in its three-game set versus the Angels and averaged 8.1 runs during its seven-game winning streak. Soroka will face the Twins in consecutive starts, a tall task for any pitcher. I have more faith in Woods Richardson to get through five innings. The Twins have a much more reliable bullpen (third in ERA) than the White Sox (4.40 ERA and 16 HR allowed), as well. With a significant pitching advantage and a hot lineup, the visitors will will win tonight!

Rating: 2 Units

Right-hander Javier Assad (2-0, 2.00 ERA) is scheduled to start for the Cubs against left-hander Sean Manaea (1-1, 3.33). Assad didn't factor into the decision in his latest start, when he gave up one run over 5 2/3 innings in the Cubs' 3-1 win over the Houston Astros on Thursday. He is 1-0 with a 1.42 ERA in two career games (one start) against the Mets. Manaea also got a no-decision the last time he took the mound. He tossed 4 2/3 scoreless innings -- but gave up four hits and four walks -- in the Mets' 8-2 win over the San Francisco Giants on Wednesday. He is 0-1 with a 4.67 ERA in four games (two starts) against the Cubs.

Rating: 2 Units

I like the Blue Jays to get some good swings against Ragans in their second meeting with the lefthander in a week. Last year, the Blue Jays batted .272 as a team against lefties and they still have a lineup of solid right-handed bats such as Vlad Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Justin Turner, and Alejandro Kirk to battle the lefty. Ragans has not been as sharp this season as he was in his 12-start stint with the Royals last year. He has given up 33 hits in 30 innings of work already and his WHIP has jumped up to 1.43 compared to 1.07 last year. Berrios took the hard-luck loss against the Royals in that rain-shortened game last week. He has been outstanding thus far with five quality starts in his six starts this season. Berrios has allowed just 26 hits in over 36 innings of work and his WHIP is a tidy 1.04. I'm going with the Jays to avenge last week's rain-shortened loss against Ragans.

Rating: 2 Units

The Phillies have won four of their last six games. They are playing very well offensively and scored 30 runs in their last four road games. Expect them to play well offensively in this game because they have hit the ball well against right-handers and Canning has struggled on the mound for the Angels, giving up 12 runs in his last three starts. He gave up seven runs in his last two home starts and with Los Angeles having the second-worst bullpen in the league, they will have a hard time slowing down the Phillies in this game. The Angels have lost nine of their last 10 games and four of their last five home games. They have struggled offensively and scored only eight runs in their last three home games. Their offensive struggles will continue in this game because Sanchez has done a good job on the mound for the Phillies, giving up eight runs in his last three starts. He gave up five runs in two starts against the Angels and won’t have trouble keeping their offense in check.

Rating: 2 Units

Both teams come into this series playing better but the Twins are clearly the hotter of the two teams. White Sox starter Crochet is not hot coming in with the ChiSox losing each of his last five starts and Crochet not looking nearly as formidable as he did in his first couple of starts this season. He hasn't been able to get out of the fifth inning in any of his last three starts, including in Minnesota last week. Twins starter Ryan hasn't been dominant but he has been efficient and owns a 3-0 record against the White Sox in his last three starts against them. The Twins offense seems to have come alive and more help may be on the way as SS Correa appears close to return after spending time on the IL. The Twins offense will carry the day today and make it five straight wins over the White Sox.

Rating: 2 Units

The Yankees come into this series with a bit more momentum than the Orioles and could pounce on the opportunity to attack Rodriguez, who is coming off a poor performance. He was much better in his previous four starts, but his control of the strike zone has been lacking all season (nine walks). The Yankees get on base and have the power to drive in runners in bunches (30 runs in their last two games). If Rodriguez isn't locating his pitches well enough, the Bronx Bombers will make him pay dearly! While Schmidt isn't as hyped as G-Rod, he's been quietly solid for NY this season. He has racked up 20 Ks in his last three starts (15.1 IP) and held three of his last four opponents to two or fewer runs. The Orioles' lineup is formidable, but if he can last five or so innings, the rested Yankees' bullpen (2.74 ERA and 1.13 WHIP) will come through.

Rating: 2 Units

The Red Sox have won four of their last seven games. They have hit the ball well against left-handers and Wicks has struggled on the mound for the Cubs, giving up eight runs in his last three starts. He gave up 11 runs in his last three road starts and will have a hard time slowing down the Red Sox in this game. The Cubs will struggle offensively in this game because Houck has done a good job on the mound for the Red Sox, giving up only nine runs in five starts. He gave up one run in two career starts against the Cubs and will keep their offense in check once again. Go with Boston to cover the money line.

Rating: 2 Units

Taijuan Walker's first start of the season comes at the right time, as the Phillies are red-hot. The offense is consistently scoring 5+ runs, so he'll have run support. This bullpen is top 10 in FIP and WAR, so they can shut the door behind him. This is why Walker's initial outing of 2024 will be a multi-run win. Michael King has been walking batters at one of the league's highest clips all season, which is why two of his past three opponents have scored more than five runs against him. San Diego's bullpen is mediocre. Roll with the Phillies to win.

Rating: 2 Units

I will take the Bombers running up against a rookie righty in the series finale. Yankees starter Stroman has a good track record against the Brewers and has been effective in his brief tenure with the Yankees thus far. The Yankees have been road warriors thus far with Friday's loss just their fifth on the road this season. The veteran middle of the order, particularly Soto and Judge, should get good swings against Myers on Sunday and help power the Yankees to victory. The two teams are nearly even in the bullpen, each ranked in the top five in bullpen ERA. Runs will be tough to come by in the final few innings so I'm leaning on the Yankees with the edge of Stroman facing the rookie righty.

Rating: 2 Units

Jordan Hicks has not allowed more than two runs in a start this season. After three home starts, he has a 1.80 ERA. He is the most reliable force in this game and the reason that the Giants will have a lead after six innings. Pittsburgh's Martin Perez has been getting tagged lately (seven runs allowed in his last two starts), and the Giants have a .257 team batting average against lefties. Expect this offense to score a few runs early. San Francisco will hold on late against a slumping offense. 

Rating: 2 Units

Suarez (4-0, 1.36 ERA) has been the best pitcher on arguably the best starting staff in the majors. He shut down the Reds Monday night over seven innings of a 7-0 win in Cincinnati, allowing only two hits with a walk and five strikeouts. Suarez's current scoreless streak is the longest for a Phillies pitchers since another lefty, Cliff Lee, authored one that lasted 30 2/3 innings from Aug. 17-Sept. 10, 2011. Like Lee, Suarez succeeds more by mixing pitches instead of overpowering hitters. Suarez enters this game with a 2-0 record in five career outings against the Padres, two of them starts. He owns a 2.65 ERA in 17 innings, which doesn't include a win and save in the 2022 National League Championship Series.

Rating: 2 Units

St Louis has won 10 of its last 15 games played at Citi Field in the Big Apple against New York. St Louis has struggled a bit at the plate but on the mound has a 4.11 team ERA, which is not the best, but its ace on the staff will be on the mound Saturday. St Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Sonny Gray has had a strong beginning to his season, allowing 14 hits and just two runs in 16.1 innings pitched, with the Cardinals winning two of his three starts. The only loss St. Louis has suffered with Gray on the mound was 2-0 to Milwaukee. New York starting pitcher Adrian Houser has been inconsistent in four starts. The right-hander allowed a combined three runs in two starts but in the other two starts, allowed a combined 13 runs in 9 Innings pitched. New York has lost three of the four games that Houser has started this season.

Rating; 2 Units

The Phillies have won eight of their last 10 games and three of their last five road games. They are playing well offensively and scored 17 runs in their last three road games. They will play well offensively in this game because they’ve hit the ball well against right-handers and Musgrove has been shaky on the mound in recent starts, giving up 10 runs in his last three starts. He gave up six runs in his last start against the Phillies and will have a hard time slowing them down in this game. The Padres have lost two of their last three home games. They struggled offensively during that stretch, scoring only six runs. Their offensive struggles will continue in this game because Nola has been dominant on the mound in recent starts, giving up five runs in his last four starts. He gave up four runs in his last two starts against the Padres and will keep their offense in check once again. 

Rating: 2 Units

The Tampa Bay Rays have not been at their best but this is a great spot to gain some confidence against the worst squad in baseball. The Chicago White Sox are rarely winning games, dropping nine of their last ten games. They could be on the way to 110 defeats this season. The Rays have Zach Eflin on the mound. The veteran has been dominant, posting 12.1 scoreless innings in his last two performances including a gem against the Yankees. He has conceded zero or one run in three of his last four outings. Chris Flexen has been shaky. He has been solid out of the 'pen but has surrendered 13 runs in 13.1 innings in his three starts this season.

Rating: 2 Units

Lugo has been outstanding thus far with four quality starts of his five starts. He's kept the ball on the ground, thus avoiding big innings despite giving up 30 hits in 31 innings of work. He will benefit from a Tigers team that has not hit the ball well at home and keep them in the park thanks to the daunting dimensions at Comerica Park as well as the ability to keep the ball on the ground. The Royals have shown surprising pop despite a relatively no-name lineup this season. They have 28 home runs but, more importantly, they can generate runs with a lineup that has some speed to complement the power. Olson has yet to win a game this season, has a WHIP of 1.45, and has given up more hits than innings pitched thus far. Look for the Royals to generate runs with speed and execution and Lugo to once again stay out of the big inning.

Rating: 2 Units

Colorado's downfall is on the mound as the Rockies are 30th or last in each of the following: ERA, WHIP and batting average allowed. The Rockies cannot offset that poor pitching with hitting as Colorado is just 14th in batting average and 20th in slugging percentage, while producing 88 runs which is only 23rd. San Diego on the other hand has the eighth best team batting average and has scored the seventh most runs, while carrying the 10th best slugging percentage. On the mound, San Diego holds its own with the 10th best team ERA and 14th best batting average allowed at just .234. San Diego starting pitcher Randy Vasquez is just 0-1, but has a 1.80 ERA after allowing just one earned run in five innings last Saturday versus Toronto but the Padres played poorly in the field as San Diego gave up three unearned runs while Vasquez was on the mound. Colorado starting pitcher Dakota Hudson has been hit hard in each of the last three starts allowing a combined 12 runs in just 14 innings and needless to say Colorado lost each of the three games.

Rating: 2 Units

Berrios (4-0, 0.85 ERA) hasn't allowed a run in his last three outings covering 19 2/3 innings. His overall scoreless-innings streak stands at 21 2/3 innings. After posting three consecutive wins, Berrios is off to the best start of his career. In 21 career starts against the Royals, Berrios is 7-5 with a 4.72 ERA, most recently going seven innings and allowing two runs on five hits with seven strikeouts in a 5-2 win on Sept. 10, 2023. Berrios has held Salvador Perez to a .200 average with just three extra-base hits -- all doubles -- in 40 at-bats. Cole Ragans (0-2, 4.32 ERA) will take the ball for Kansas City today. The left-hander recorded just five outs while matching a career high with seven runs allowed on nine hits in a 9-7 loss to the Baltimore Orioles on Saturday.

Rating: 2 Units

Peralta (2-0, 1.90 ERA) will hope to limit the bullpen's workload on Thursday. He is 2-1 with a 3.18 ERA in 20 career appearances, 11 starts, against Pittsburgh. In his past two outings combined, Peralta has allowed just one run on nine hits in 12 innings, with two walks and 18 strikeouts. Right-handed pitcher Mitch Keller (2-2, 4.80 ERA) is expected to get the nod on the mound for the Pirates. Keller is 0-4 with a 6.23 ERA in six career starts against the Brewers.

Rating: 2 Units

The Twins have won three of their last five home games. They are playing well offensively and scored 12 runs in their last three home games. They will play well offensively in this game because Crochet has struggled on the mound in recent starts, giving up 14 runs in his last three starts. He gave up nine runs in his two road starts and will have a hard time slowing down the Twins in this game. The White Sox have lost five of their last six road games. They aren’t playing well offensively and scored only seven runs in their last four games. Their offensive struggles will continue in this game because they are batting under .200 against right-handers and Ryan has done a good job on the mound for the Twins, giving up 11 runs in four starts. He gave up six runs in three starts against the White Sox, and with Minnesota having the fourth-best bullpen in the league, they won’t have trouble keeping Chicago’s offense in check. 

Rating: 2 Units

Sox need a bullpen game and could be without Casas and possibly Devers. Carrasco fared well enough in his last start and while pitching against the same club in consecutive outings can be challenging, the Sox haven't had enough continuity in their lineup to expect an improved performance this time around. Besides, the veteran righty has looked much better since returning in 2024 and has an elite bullpen backing him up. Cleveland's pen sports a 2.11 ERA and 1.03 WHIP with the most Ks and fewest HR allowed. The Guardians will string together enough hits against Boston's group of relievers to outlast them at home. They rank fifth in hits, sixth in total bases, and ninth in stolen bases per game this year. They're crushing lefty pitchers (.304/.365/.469/.834) and have performed well under the lights (.267/.333/.434/.767), as well. 16-6 both straight-up and against the spread.

Rating: 2 Units

Montgomery (1-0, 1.50 ERA) won his first start for Arizona over the San Francisco Giants on Friday. He will make his second today as the Diamondbacks face the St. Louis Cardinals to close their three-game road series. The Cardinals won the series opener 5-3 on Monday and the Diamondbacks rolled to a 14-1 victory Tuesday. Montgomery, who spent the bulk of last season with the Cardinals before his trade to the Texas Rangers, went six innings in his first start for the Diamondbacks. He held the Giants to one run on four hits while striking out three and walking nobody. The Cardinals will start Kyle Gibson (1-2, 5.04), who delivered a quality start in his last outing, a 2-1, 10-inning loss to the Milwaukee Brewers on Friday. Gibson allowed one run on three hits and four walks over six innings while getting in sync with catcher Willson Contreras. He is 3-3 with a 2.75 ERA in six career starts against the Diamondbacks.

Rating: 2 Units

These teams are trending in opposite directions, and the same could be said for the starting pitchers. The Orioles are hot, they have won six of their last seven games, and lead the major leagues in home runs with 33 home runs. They have four more home runs than the team in second place, the Red Sox. The Orioles generate runs at a high level, they rank 5th in the majors in run production. The Angels have not fared so well, they have lost four straight, including getting swept by the Reds. The Angels are only 20th in run production, and have not been putting up the same numbers as Baltimore. The Orioles will start Rodriguez here, they are 4-0 in his starts. In the other dugout, the Angels are starting Canning, and they are 0-4 in his starts. There pitching stats gives a big edge to the Orioles, as Rodriguez has 11 more strikeouts, has given up two fewer home runs, and has a much better ERA at 2.64, while Cannings is 8.05.

Rating: 2 Units

The Colorado offense has stalled out, and will have a tough time keeping up with San Diego's offense in this one. The Rockies have only generated four runs over the past three games combined, and are taking on the Padres who are in the top ten in runs scored, home runs and batting average as a team. It is a landslide in almost all statistical categories, the Padres have outscored the Rockies 118-80 this season, with ten more home runs, and a much lower ERA. The Rockies have the worst ERA in all of baseball at 5.88, as the thin Denver air is hurting them more than it helps. Colorado's starter Feltner has an ERA over 5, and will struggle to get out of innings against Tatis, Machado and company. Michael King has been far better on the mound, even in his only loss he struck out ten batters and only allowed two hits. San Diego will cruise an an easy victory here.

Rating: 2 Units

Oakland has been playing much better since its 1-7 start to the season. It gutted out a clutch win on Monday with just four hits, holding New York scoreless with zero extra-base hits. Now, it turns to Blackburn, who has been rock solid in 2024 and has fared well against the Yankees in the past. Plus, the Yankees are slashing just .227/.335/.351/.686 at home and really need Aaron Judge (.174 BA and 31 Ks in 86 ABs) to break out of his slump soon. With Stroman on the bump, I like Oakland's odds of at least keeping the final score close. The Yankees' starter got off to a solid start but wasn't as sharp in his last two appearances, putting eight runners on base in each outing. He gave up a home run in each of these starts and fanned just two Blue Jays in his last appearance. The A's may not be the most intimidating offense, but they're playing with some confidence. As long as Blackburn can give his team six innings of quality pitching, I like the value of a bet on the A's.

Rating: 2 Units

Grayson Rodriguez bullied the Angels in his season debut on March 30. He punched out nine across six frames while giving up just an earned run on four hits and a walk. Since then, Rodriguez has allowed two earned runs in each of his next three starts. On the other side, Reid Detmers met the O’s on the last day of March and fanned seven across five innings. He emerged victorious, allowing one earned run on two hits and three walks. Detmers has been outstanding so far this season, and Rodriguez has been nothing short of spectacular, too. I’m backing the Orioles to come out on top because of their offense. Baltimore has been killing the southpaws over the last ten days, posting a ridiculous 259 wRC+ in 76 plate appearances (.444/.474/.750 triple-slash).

Rating: 2 Units

The Rockies have not been winning many games this season, and they are not going to win games in back to back days, especially while taking on San Diego. The Padres have far more offensive firepower, they have big name stars in Tatis and Machado, as well as up and comers who have been producing in Profar and Merrill. The pitching edge goes to San Diego here, Cease has 27 strikeouts to just 11 walks while giving up only one home run, while Gomber only has 18 strikeouts and has given up four home runs in the same amount of starts. Even with their recent struggles, the Padres are still sixth in the majors in home runs. and the Rockies are dead last in team ERA at 6.06. San Diego gets back on track and opens up this series with a big win.

Rating: 2 Units

Toronto left-hander Yusei Kikuchi (1-1, 2.08 ERA) will take the mound to open the series. In seven career starts against the Royals, Kikuchi is 1-2 with a 6.37 ERA, earning the lone win on April 4, 2023, while allowing a run on three hits over five innings. Hunter Renfroe has a home run among three hits in five at-bats against Kikuchi. Right-hander Brady Singer (2-0, 1.54 ERA) will start for Kansas City today. Singer is 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA in three career starts against the Blue Jays, having won the most recent outing on April 3, 2023, while allowing a run on two hits in five innings. Varsho has a home run in five at-bats against Singer. The Royals have won all four of Singer's 2024 starts as he has allowed no more than two runs in any outing. All four runs allowed over 23 1/3 innings scored on homers. Singer's .163 opponent batting average ranks third in the American League. The development of a split-change has helped him induce more weak contact.

Rating: 2 Units

The Tigers have won two of their last three road games. They are playing well offensively and scored 16 runs in their last three games. They will play well offensively in this game because Varland hasn’t looked good on the mound for the Twins, giving up 15 runs in three starts. He gave up six runs in his last start against the Tigers and will have a hard time slowing them down in this game. The Twins have lost six of their last eight games. They have struggled offensively and scored nine runs in their last three games. Their offensive struggles will continue in this game because they are batting under .200 against right-handers and Mize has been solid on the mound, giving up seven runs in three starts. He gave up five runs in two road starts and with Detroit having the best bullpen in the league, they will keep Minnesota’s offense in check. Go with Detroit to cover the money line.

Rating: 2 Units

Stripling hasn’t earned a win in the majors since the 2022 campaign as he was 0-5 with the Giants last season ahead of being 0-4 this year. The A’s have hung tough early on this season and have been better than expected in the early going. Cleveland got the win in the opening game of this series as they were solid with runners in scoring position, going four of seven in those situations. The Guardians have had a lot of success in the early going this season and if Bibee can throw more strikes than he has in the early going, Cleveland should be in good shape here. Look for the Guardians to earn the victory in this contest.

MLB Free Pick - Tampa Bay at NYY

Although they are 14-7 in their first 21 games, the Yankees are 2-4 in their past six games. During that span, New York had a four-run ninth in Wednesday's 6-4 victory at Toronto, then put together a five-run seventh on Friday. Right-hander Aaron Civale (2-1, 2.74 ERA), who has completed six innings in three of his first four starts of the season, concludes the series for the Rays. Civale last pitched on Tuesday, when he took a no-decision after allowing three runs on five hits in six innings of Tampa Bay's 7-6 win over the Los Angeles Angels. Civale was acquired from the Cleveland Guardians ahead of last season's trade deadline. Yankee starter, Right-hander Luis Gil (0-1, 3.86) hopes he can display better command of the strike zone when he makes his 11th career start on Sunday. Gil has walked 14 in 14 innings across his first three outings. He issued seven free passes in five innings on Monday, also allowing three runs and three hits while taking a loss against the Toronto Blue Jays.

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Rating: 2 Units

In four starts, Texas pitcher Nathan Eovaldi has allowed eight runs in 24 ⅔ innings but five of those eight were in just one start, while holding three opponents to just three runs across 18 ⅔ innings. Atlanta starter Charlie Morgan has been roughed up in each of the last two outings, allowing 10 runs in 10 ⅔ innings while striking out 12 but walking six. Atlanta will play without second baseman Ozzie Albies, who thus far this season has five doubles, two home runs and 14 RBIs. Albies production at the plate will be missed in this series with Texas. Texas has won 16 of its last 20 played on the road and the Rangers have won four of the last six played on the road against Atlanta. The Braves have struggled a bit on the mound with a team ERA of 4.41 and WHIP of 1.33. Saturday's starting pitcher for Atlanta, Morton has an ERA that is even higher than the team average at 5.29.

Rating: 2 Units

Diamondbacks’ starter Zac Gallen has been dominant, allowing zero or one run in three of his four outings this season. He issued six scoreless innings against the Cardinals in his previous outing. The Diamondbacks have won in three of his four starts. Giants’ starter Kyle Harrison is an inexperienced pitcher. He has given up 10 runs in his last 17 innings pitched.

Rating: 2 Units

Chicago will turn to right-hander Javier Assad (2-0, 2.16 ERA) for the opener of the twin bill. Assad's latest start was also against Seattle, and he came away with a victory after allowing two runs on four hits in 5 2/3 innings on Sunday. Assad has never faced Miami in his career. Going up against a pair of pitchers with sub-2.20 ERAs could pose a challenge for the Marlins, who fell to 4-16 on the season with an 8-3 loss to the Cubs on Friday. Miami totaled six hits in the setback, with three of them coming in the ninth inning. Southpaw Jesus Luzardo (0-2, 7.65 ERA) will attempt to keep Chicago at bay in Game 1 of the Saturday doubleheader. Luzardo escaped with a no-decision against the Atlanta Braves on Sunday despite surrendering five runs and seven hits in five innings.

Rating: 2 Units

With former Brewers ace Corbin Burnes pitching for the Baltimore Orioles and Brandon Woodruff recovering from shoulder surgery, Freddy Peralta has emerged as Milwaukee's staff ace. Peralta (2-0, 2.55 ERA) has been up to the task while striking out 26 batters and walking two in 17 2/3 innings in three starts. He will face a Cardinals lineup that is failing to generate much offense. The Cardinals have scored three runs or fewer in five straight games and in 10 of their past 11. While Peralta has been on point for the Brewers, Kyle Gibson (1-2, 6.16 ERA) has struggled for the Cardinals since signing as a free agent. He has allowed five homers in 19 innings over his three starts. Gibson took the loss in his last start on Saturday. He allowed four runs on six hits -- including Lourdes Gurriel Jr.'s three-run homer -- and three walks in six innings against the Diamondbacks. Gibson is 1-2 with a 5.44 ERA in eight career starts against the Brewers.

Rating: 2 Units

The surprising A's begin a three-game series and 10-game road trip when they face the Cleveland Guardians on Friday. Oakland begins the series on a hot streak after winning seven of its past 11 games, including a 6-3 victory over the St. Louis Cardinals on Wednesday. The Athletics will send rookie right-hander Joe Boyle (1-2, 5.68 ERA) to the mound in the series opener. He allowed one run on five hits and one walk over five innings in a 3-1 loss to the Washington Nationals last Saturday. Boyle, 24, went 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA in three starts with the A's last season. He is making his first appearance against the Guardians. Cleveland will counter with right-hander Triston McKenzie (1-2, 6.23), who is looking to bounce back after giving up six runs (five earned) on four hits and six walks over four innings in an 8-2 loss to the New York Yankees last Saturday. The 26-year-old McKenzie has struck out five batters and issued 12 walks in his first three outings covering 13 innings.

Rating: 2 Units

Right-hander Jameson Taillon will finally make his season debut today when the host Chicago Cubs open a four-game set with the Miami Marlins. After a strong season with the New York Yankees in 2022, Taillon took a step back with Chicago in 2023, going 8-10 with a 4.84 ERA. He went 4-6 with a 4.62 ERA at home, and only one of those wins came before the All-Star break. Activated from the 15-day injured list on Thursday, Taillon (back) is 2-0 with a glistening 0.54 ERA in three career starts against Miami. Left-hander A.J. Puk (0-3, 5.91 ERA) will try to slow down Busch and the Cubs when he makes his fourth start of the campaign today. Puk had never started a game prior to this season, and he hasn't had a smooth transition into his new role. In each of his first three outings this year, Puk has lasted no longer than 4 2/3 innings, a mark he reached on April 9 in a loss to the New York Yankees. Puk yielded two runs (one earned) on four hits and five walks against New York. Puk is 1-1 with a 6.00 ERA in four career relief appearances against Chicago.

Rating: 2 Units

I like the value of a bet on the Diamondbacks ML at roughly +150 odds. Webb hasn't been terrible, but he's put too many runners on base this season (17 in his last two starts combined). He isn't striking out a lot of batters, either (five or fewer Ks in all four starts). Arizona has plenty of offensive weapons and is averaging 5.7 runs per game. Given the Giants' struggles on offense, I don't expect Nelson to struggle much. San Francisco has scored three or fewer runs in eight of its last twelve games and is slashing .233/.307/.370/.677 vs. right-handed pitchers this season. Webb may be the bigger name, but I believe Nelson will hold his own. With early run support, he should last long enough to give his tired bullpen a rest. Besides, I'm not confident the Giants will have better luck against the D-Backs' pen. If anything, bettors should be wary of the home team's relief group (5.05 ERA).

Rating: 2 Units

Toronto is scheduled to start struggling Kevin Gausman (0-2, 11.57 ERA) today against fellow right-hander and former Blue Jay Marcus Stroman (1-1, 2.12). Stroman is 0-0 with an 0.82 ERA in two career starts vs. Toronto. This will be the second time Stroman has pitched in Toronto since he was traded to the New York Mets during the 2019 season. He held the Blue Jays to one run over five innings with the Chicago Cubs on Aug. 30, 2022. Gausman is 10-8 with a 3.27 ERA in 32 career outings (26 starts) against the Yankees. He allowed six runs (five earned) over 1 1/3 innings in a 9-8 loss in New York on April 6. He followed that last Friday by permitting six runs on 10 hits over 3 2/3 frames to the Colorado Rockies in a 12-4 loss.

Rating: 2 Units

The Royals are off to a great start this season and part of that success is due to the return to form of starting pitcher Singer. Singer has found his strikeout pitch again after struggling in 2023 with just 133 strikeouts. He is well ahead of that pace this year and looks like a top-two starter in the rotation. The Royals are hitting home runs at a fast pace already with 20 on the season and that doesn't bode well for White Sox starter Fedde. Fedde has already given up five home runs in just three starts this season. The White Sox, as a team, are hitting just .200 as team this season and have struck out 132 times as a team.

Rating: 2 Units

Atlanta has won seven of the last 10 and 10 of the first 15 to start the season. Houston has lost five of the last seven and dating back to last season have lost 15 in the last 20 at home. At the plate, Atlanta is first in team batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage, while third in runs scored. Houston is next to last in team ERA at 5.35 and 28th in batting average allowed (.265). Atlanta starting pitcher Max Fried is coming off a solid outing in which the left-hander gave up four hits and one run in 6 plus innings last Friday with Atlanta defeating Miami 8-1.  Houston starting pitcher J.P. France is off to a slow start. Across three outings, the right-hander has allowed 14 runs in 15 plus innings while striking out 12 but walking seven. Houston has lost each of France’s three starts.  As mentioned twice previously, Houston is playing without four starting pitchers from last season's starting rotation, due to injuries, which puts more pressure on both the starting rotation and bullpen.

Rating: 2 Units

Oakland’s lineup is one of the worst in baseball. The current Athletics are only 10-for-43 with three home runs and four RBI against Lance Lynn. The A’s own an 85 wRC+ against the right-handed pitchers in April, so it’s hard to trust them in this matchup. I cannot take the A’s even though their bullpen has been terrific so far this month. The Cardinals have a 98 wRC+ against the southpaws in April and are 4-for-11 with a home run and two RBI versus JP Sears. Their bullpen has registered a strong 2.23 ERA and 2.63 FIP so far this month (40.1 innings pitched), so I’m backing the Cards to come out on top.  

Rating: 2 Units

The Giants split their last four games. They are playing well offensively and scored 16 runs in their last three road games. Expect them to pay well offensively in this game because they have crushed left-handed pitching this season and Weathers has been shaky on the mound, giving up six runs in three starts. He gave up three runs in his lone home start, and with Miami having the third-worst bullpen in the league, they will have a hard time slowing down the Giants in this game. The Marlins have lost nine of their last 10 home games. They are playing well offensively and scored 13 runs in their last three home games. But, they will struggle offensively in this game because they haven’t hit the ball well against right-handers and Hicks has been brilliant on the mound this season, giving up three runs in three starts. He gave up one run in his lone start against the Marlins and will keep their offense in check. Go with San Francisco to cover the money line.

Rating: 2 Units

Sonny Gray's first start as a Cardinal was strong, and he'll return home as a pitcher that limits damage consistently. Behind him is a solid bullpen. Against an Athletics offense that is still among MLB's worst, expect St. Louis' pitching to keep Oakland in check. Meanwhile, the Cardinals will get hits off Ross Stripling, as his H/9 (13.0) is the reason that Oakland keeps losing his starts. St. Louis will get runs early and often. They should parlay that into a multi-run victory on the road.

Rating: 2 Units

The Milwaukee Brewers will look to bounce back behind resurrected right-hander Joe Ross when they host the San Diego Padres today in the opener of a short three-game homestand. Ross (1-0, 1.80 ERA), who missed most of the last two seasons after a second Tommy John surgery, makes his third start for Milwaukee. Right-hander Joe Musgrove (1-2, 6.87), who gave up one hit over eight innings the last time he faced the Brewers, gets the nod for the Padres. Musgrove was charged with four runs on five hits in four innings in his most recent start, a 5-1 loss to the Chicago Cubs on Tuesday. He allowed a leadoff homer in the fifth then left three batters later with the bases loaded. Reliever Stephen Kolek then surrendered a grand slam to the first batter he faced. Musgrove is 1-3 with a 4.04 ERA in eight career starts vs. Milwaukee.

Rating: 2 Units

The White Sox will send right-hander Nick Nastrini to make his major league debut today. Nastrini, 24, was acquired from the Los Angeles Dodgers ahead of last year's trade deadline for right-handers Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly. Nastrini has made two starts at Triple-A Charlotte, going 0-1 with a 7.71 ERA. He made five appearances (three starts) in spring training this year, going 0-1 with a 3.77 ERA. The Royals will send right-hander Seth Lugo (2-0, 1.45 ERA), who will be making his fourth start of the season. In his most recent start last Wednesday night against the Houston Astros, Lugo earned his second win of the year, allowing two runs on seven hits in six innings, striking out two. Lugo, who is 1-0 with a 1.23 ERA in his career against Chicago, will be making his second career start (third appearance) against the White Sox. Lugo allowed one run on eight hits over 6 2/3 innings, striking out three and walking two against the White Sox on April 4 to earn his first win with Kansas City.

Rating: 2 Units

Chicago isn't going anywhere, but Cincinnati could be on the verge of a breakout season. The Reds have power, potential, and pitching — the White Sox have none of those things. The visitors will jump on Soroka early, giving Ashcraft the run support necessary to turn in a quality start. The Reds' SP hasn't been lights out, but he has fanned 11 batters in 11.1 IP and held the Phillies to two earned runs in his season debut. After facing Philadelphia and Milwaukee, he should find it much easier to work through the Sox lineup.

Rating; 2 Units

This Marlins squad has been miserable at home. Not only are they winless, but all but one of those defeats came by multiple runs. Matching up a struggling Jesus Luzardo, who has started three losses, against an Atlanta offense that's arguably MLB's best, is a nightmare matchup. Charlie Morton's lone road start of 2024 was what every team wants, scoreless. The Braves' bullpen has had issues, but Miami's offense is among MLB's weakest. This is another game where they can succeed. 

Rating: 2 Units

The Brewers have been road warriors this season. They have won three straight road games and six of their last seven overall. They are playing well offensively and scored 27 runs in their last three road games. Expect them to play well offensively in this game because they feasted on right-handed pitching this season and they’re batting over .290 against righties. Even though Corbin has pitched well this season, he hasn't been as sharp at home, and with Baltimore’s bullpen struggling in recent games, they will have a hard time slowing down the Brewers in this game. The Orioles have lost two of their last three home games. They are struggling offensively, scoring only six runs in their last three home games. Their offensive struggles will continue in this game because Rea has done a good job on the mound for the Brewers, giving up three runs in two starts. He didn’t give up a run in his lone start against the Orioles last season and will keep their offense in check. Go with Milwaukee to cover the money line.

Rating: 2 Units

Arizona starter Ryne Nelson has an 8.33 ERA. The Diamondbacks have lost five of the last seven, five of the last six at home versus St Louis and Arizona is 2-4 in its last six against an opponent from the National League. St Louis is 14-6 in the last 20 versus Arizona and 5-1 in the last six on the road against the Diamondbacks. St. Louis is a solid 3.99 in team ERA. Arizona is allowing opponents to hit .246 and before winning two straight had lost five straight, allowing five runs or more in each of the five losses. Arizona is 25th in errors per game, committing an average of 0.85.

Rating: 2 Units

Tampa Bay is 4-1 in the last five games, while San Francisco is 3-7 in the last 10 games, and 2-4 in the last six in the six versus Tampa Bay. San Francisco has lost nine of the last 12 in April. Tampa Bay starter Ryan Pepiot was hit hard in his first outing, but bounced back strong last time out when holding Colorado, at Coors Field, to three hits and no runs in six innings. Logan Webb has allowed nine runs in 19 ⅔ innings for an ERA of nearly 5.00. San Francisco’s team ERA is 27th at 5.06 and is allowing teams to average .262 at the plate. Tampa Bay’s Isaac Paredes is off to a strong start with four home runs and 10 RBIs.

Rating: 2 Units

Philadelphia has fared much better against left-handed pitchers (.277 BA/.358 OBP/.361 SLG/.719 OPS) than right-handers this season (.208/.283/.350/.633), and while Gonzales has pitched well in his first two outings, his track record isn't reliable. He has been home run-prone during his career, allowing 29 long balls in 2021 and 30 in 2022. The home team's powerful lineup will inflict damage on the lefty hurler's ERA early in tomorrow's game, building a lead for Turnbull. Philly's pen has performed poorly this season, but with a comfortable lead, Turnbull should last long enough to take pressure off of it.

Rating: 2 Units

Cincinnati is not off to the best start but it's playing one of the weakest teams in baseball, as the White Sox have been decimated by injuries. Chicago is without Eloy Jimenez, Yoan Moncada, Luis Robert and Max Stassi, who all contribute considerably at the plate. The loss of several players for Chicago has resulted in the White Sox being 25th in slugging percentage, 26th in team batting average and 29th in runs scored, averaging 2.42 runs per game. Chicago has lost 12 of its last 14. Cincinnati starting pitcher Andrew Abboitt has had two solid outings allowing 10 hits and five runs in 10 ⅓ innings. In contrast, Chicago starting pitcher Chris Flexen has allowed seven earned runs in 10 ⅔ innings resulting in losses to Atlanta and Kansas City. Flexen has a 5.91 ERA.

Rating: 2 Units

The Royals have won seven straight games. They’ve been on a roll offensively and scored 28 runs in their last three games. Expect them to play well offensively in this game because they’ve hit the ball well against right-handers this season and Severino struggled in his first home start, giving up six runs in the loss to Milwaukee. Even though he is 3-1 against the Royals, he didn’t pitch well in recent starts against them, giving up 13 runs in his last three starts against Kansas City, so expect him to have a hard time slowing them down in this game. The Mets have won five of their last seven games. They have also played well offensively, scoring 29 runs in their last three games. But, they will struggle offensively in this game because they’re batting under .200 against right-handers and Wacha has looked good on the mound for the Royals, giving up only three runs in two starts. He is 5-3 against the Mets and gave up 10 runs in his last four starts against them. With Kansas City’s bullpen playing well at the moment, they won’t have a hard time keeping New York’s offense in check. Go with Kansas City to cover the money line.

Rating: 2 Units

This is a tough scheduling spot for the Orioles, as they were on the road and playing well into the night against Boston before having to travel home to take on the well rested Brewer team. On top of that, Milwaukee has the best power hitter, and the better pitcher in the matchup. Christian Yelich has more home runs that the top two Orioles combined, he has been excellent lately and is fueling this Milwaukee attack. This will be bad news for Tyler Wells, as he lost both of his starts this season, allowing at least three runs and a home run in each of his two starts. Peralta has been much better for the Brewers, and has struck out 15 while only walking two, with the Brewers winning each of his two starts. The Brewers will steal the first game here on the road.

Rating: 2 Units

The Orioles jumped all over Boston's pitching yesterday, scoring seven runs on 13 hits. They were 8-for-15 with runners in scoring position. The Red Sox scored one run in the bottom of the first but were held scoreless the rest of the afternoon, managing just two hits against SP Corbin Burnes and the O's bullpen. I'm anticipating a better performance by the home team today against Irvin, who didn't fare well against Boston last season, as 1B Triston Casas hit a three-run homer and 3B Rafael Devers went 2-for-4. The Orioles starter put nine runners on base in his 2024 debut versus the Royals, and I expect Boston to take advantage of these opportunities after yesterday's dud. Crawford is expected to go for Boston, which should be good news for Sox fans. He has allowed just five hits with 12 Ks in 10.2 combined innings this season and held Baltimore scoreless in his lone appearance against them last year (one hit with seven Ks in 6.0 IP on Sept. 30). He and the Red Sox bullpen (fourth in ERA and fifth in strikeouts) should perform well enough to quiet the Orioles' bats. 

Rating: 2 Units

Nola (1-1, 5.40 ERA) allowed seven runs, six earned, in 4 1/3 innings during a 12-4 loss to the Atlanta Braves on March 30. He rebounded as the Phillies blanked the host Washington Nationals 4-0 on Friday. Nola walked four batters in the blustery conditions but gave up only two hits over 5 2/3 innings. Nola went 1-0 with a 1.54 ERA in two starts against the Cardinals last season. In his career, he is 6-3 with a 2.50 ERA in 11 starts vs. St. Louis. Lance Lynn (0-0, 4.15 ERA) will make his third start of the season for the Cardinals. He threw four scoreless innings against the Los Angeles Dodgers before a Southern California rainstorm cut short his March 30 start. In his second outing, Lynn served up three home runs to the Miami Marlins in 4 2/3 innings on Thursday, though the Cardinals won 8-5. He allowed four runs on eight hits in that contest.

Rating: 2 Units

Philadelphia has won seven of the last eight head-to-head versus St Louis and the Phillies have won four of the last five played on the road at Busch Stadium against the Cardinals. Although Philadelphia starter Zack Wheeler is 0-1, the right-hander has pitched very well in two outings allowing just one run in 12 innings pitched with 15 strikeouts and one walk. St Louis starting pitcher Sonny Gray will be making his season debut and will likely not pitch more than three to four innings. St Louis has struggled at the plate thus far with a team batting average of .222 and a .343 slugging percentage. The Cardinals OPS is just .643. Philadelphia is not that much better at this point, but the Phillies are higher in each of the three previous categories with a .229 team batting average, .358 slugging percentage and .675 OPS.

Rating; 2 Units

The Yankees destroyed Jesus Luzardo, as both Juan Soto and Anthony Volpe took the Marlins’ lefty deep. The Yankees should be fired up to stay hot against another southpaw in A.J. Puk. It’s hard to trust Puk, who served as Miami’s closer for most of the 2023 season. He’s been pretty bad over his first two showings in 2024. Furthermore, the Marlins bullpen holds an ugly 6.11 ERA, whereas the Yankees’ relievers have recorded a 2.88 ERA so far this season.

Rating: 2 Units

James Paxton is 4-1 with a 2.61 ERA in seven career starts against the Twins. Last season, he met the Twins once as a member of the Red Sox and threw 6.1 frames of a three-run ball in a winning effort. On the other side, Bailey Ober emerged victorious in his lone career start against the Dodgers. Last year, he held the Blue Crew to one earned run on six hits. I’m backing the Dodgers because of their scary lineup. The Dodgers lead the majors in home runs (15) and are third in OPS (.816). They are hitting a strong .298/.373/.477 against the right-handed pitchers, and it’s hard to trust Bailey Ober in this matchup. The Dodgers are 12-1 in their last 13 meetings with the Twins. 

Rating: 2 Units

The Yankees have won seven of their last nine games. They are playing well offensively, scoring at least five runs in three of their last four games. They will play well offensively in this game because they have hit the ball well against left-handers and they’ve had a lot of success against Luzardo, who gave up five runs in his first two starts. He is 0-2 in two starts against the Yankees, giving up 10 runs in those starts. With Miami also having the sixth-worst bullpen in the league, they will have a hard time slowing down the Yankees in this game. The Marlins have lost nine of their last 10 games. Even though they played well offensively in their last game, they haven’t looked good on that end so far and scored only 11 runs in their previous four games. Even though Cortez has been shaky on the mound so far, giving up seven runs in two starts, expect the Marlins to struggle offensively in this game because they are batting under .200 against left-handers and Cortez is backed up by one of the best bullpens in the league, so even if they get to him, the damage will be minimized. Go with New York to cover the money line. 

Rating: 2 Units

Miami is 27th in team ERA, 28th in WHIP and 25th in batting average allowed. The Marlins are not much better at the plate, sitting 25th in team batting average, 26th in on base percentage and 27th in slugging percentage. St Louis is slightly better on the mound with the 18th-best ERA. Miami starter Max Meyer had a solid outing in his season debut allowing two runs in five innings including serving up one home run but the Marlins lost nonetheless.  Kyle Gibson had a strong debut with St Louis on the mound. Gibson gave up two runs in seven innings to beat the San Diego Padres 6-2 last Monday. Miami has lost eight straight to open the season and the Marlins are 1-9 over the last 10 games played on the road versus St Louis. St Louis has won four of its last six.

Rating; 2 Units

The Brewers have won five of their last six games. They are playing well offensively and scored 12 runs in their last three games. They will play well offensively in this game because they’re batting over .270 against right-handers and Hancock didn’t look good on the mound in his first start, giving up three runs in five innings. With Seattle’s bullpen also struggling during their slump, they will have a hard time slowing down the Brewers in this game. The Mariners have lost three straight games. They are struggling offensively, scoring seven runs in their last three games. Their offensive struggles will continue in this game because they’re barely batting over .200 against right-handers and Rea looked good on the mound in his first start, giving up only one run. With Milwaukee’s bullpen also playing well, they won’t have trouble keeping Seattle’s offense in check. Go with Milwaukee to cover the money line.

Rating: 2 Units

This Marlins team is in absolute shambles right now, so there’s just no way that I can back them in this spot. Steven Matz gets the nod, and the southpaw has owned this Miami roster throughout his career. It’s a slim 31-at-bat sample size, but he’s limited them to a slash line of .194/.219/.258. Furthermore, Matz looked really solid in his season debut against the Dodgers, so I think he may parlay that performance into another respectable start against the floundering Fish. I believe the Red Birds have the edge in starting pitching, the bullpen, and offensively. Let’s not overthink this one, let’s lock in St. Louis at home.

Rating: 2 Units

Both teams come into this game with momentum as they each earned road sweeps in their early week series. Neither team beat a juggernaut as the Red Sox swept the A’s while the Angels swept the winless Marlins but you take your wins where you can get them. Boston has been solid so far this season and they have the advantage on the bump in this contest with Crawford looking sharp in his debut. Meanwhile, Canning was roughed up by the Orioles in his season debut and the Red Sox are hitting the ball well right now. Look for the Red Sox to ding Canning and put this one in the win column.

Rating: 2 Units

The Mets will send left-hander Jose Quintana (0-1, 3.86 ERA) to the mound in the series opener at Cincinnati. Quintana allowed six hits and two runs over 4 2/3 innings and took a 3-1 loss against the Milwaukee Brewers on March 29 in the season opener. In his career against the Reds, Quintana is 5-4 with a 3.03 ERA in 14 games (13 starts). The Reds will counter with Hunter Greene (0-0, 3.86), also making his second start of the season. The right-hander was the victim of some shoddy fielding behind him in the Washington Nationals' 7-6 comeback win on Saturday. Greene allowed five hits and just two runs over 4 2/3 innings, striking out seven and walking four in a no-decision.

Rating: 2 Units

The Yankees will attempt to keep Toronto's offense quiet by starting former Blue Jays right-hander Marcus Stroman (1-0, 0.00 ERA). He made his Yankee debut Saturday and allowed three unearned runs on four hits in six innings of a 5-3 win at Houston. Stroman is making his second start against the Blue Jays since they traded him to the New York Mets in 2019. He faced them on Aug. 30, 2022 for the Chicago Cubs and allowed one run in five innings of a no-decision. Left-hander Yusei Kikuchi (0-1, 6.23), who allowed three runs in 4 1/3 innings Saturday against the Rays, starts for Toronto. He is 4-3 with a 3.57 ERA in 12 career appearances (10 starts) against the Yankees.

Rating: 2 Units

While the Cardinals began their season by going 3-4 in California against the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres, the reeling Marlins lost all seven games of their opening homestand against the Pittsburgh Pirates and Los Angeles Angels. St. Louis starter, Lynn (0-0, 0.00 ERA) threw four scoreless innings against the Los Angeles Dodgers in his first start of the season on Saturday. He allowed four hits, walked one and struck out five before a rain delay cut short his outing. The Marlins will counter Lynn with left-hander Ryan Weathers (0-1, 6.75 ERA). He is part of a Miami rotation that is missing injured starting pitchers Sandy Alcantara, Braxton Garrett, Eury Perez and Edward Cabrera. Weathers allowed three runs on seven hits and two walks in four innings during a 9-3 loss to the Pirates during his season debut on Saturday. He needed 94 pitches to get 12 outs.  I love betting on teams in their home openers when it makes sense.  This one makes sense.

Rating: 2 Units

Red Sox starters were stunning through the first five games of the season, combining to allow just five runs (four earned) across 28 innings, good for an ERA of 1.29. Of the five pitchers who started, Pivetta (0-1, 1.50 ERA) was among three who worked six innings, while the other two lasted five. Opponents mustered 17 hits against the starting rotation, which racked up 37 strikeouts against just one walk. Pivetta is 5-0 with a glistening 0.82 ERA in five career appearances (three starts) against Oakland. Fellow right-hander Ross Stripling (0-1, 7.20 ERA) will oppose Pivetta today after allowing five runs (four earned) and seven hits in five innings against the Cleveland Guardians on Friday. Stripling was tagged with the loss, and he hasn't picked up a win since Oct. 1, 2022, while pitching for the Toronto Blue Jays.

Rating: 2 Units

Alex Wood's first start was horrible, and in this start (in the same building), he has an offense that should be even tougher. Oakland's bullpen can't be trusted to stop any bleeding. Expect Boston's offense to have a great night. Bello is facing an offense that was MLB's worst a year ago and didn't make any significant moves that project to change that for 2024. Through four games, the Athletics have drawn walks at a decent rate, and that's about it. Bello didn't issue a single walk in his first start, a strong winning effort.

Rating: 2 Units

Baltimore looked excellent in their first two games of the season, scoring at least 11 runs in each game, and now they will be playing a pitcher who was only 3-9 last season. Alec Marsh is starting for the Royals, he struggled last year and only had a 5.69 ERA. The Baltimore bats will get hot in this one, as Henderson and Santander are both off to a quick start to the 2024 season. Baltimore has 25 runs through their first three games, while KC only had 13, and 11 of them came in one game. The Royals hit five homers in their only win, but have shown very little offensive production outside that. The Baltimore pitching staff has five more strikeouts than the Royals, and are beating them in virtually every category.