Sports Picks & Predictions

Monday January 8th, 2024

NCAA FB Top Side Play · [287] Washington Huskies   +4.5   -110

 Mr. East   Mon Jan 8th, 2024 7:30pm EST   Win/Loss Undecided
Expert Preview: MREAST NCAAF NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP 1/8
Expert Analysis: It is fitting that a pair of 14-0 teams will face each other for the NCAAF National Championship. It comes down to the best defense Washington will have faced all season vs, the best offense Michigan will have faced all-season. Looking back at 2022, Michigan brought a defense into their playoff game vs, an elite offense in TCU and was promptly torched for 51 points. That defense allowed just 13.4ppg. The PAC-12 is all about offense. The Big-10 conference games this season averaged just 45.5 total points per game. The Pac-12 at 57.8ppg. Clearly, these teams have faced different paths to get here. Washington gave up 32ppg against the top 5 offenses they faced this season, which had an average rank of #4 in the nation. The Michigan offense ranks at #12. The Washington offense vs. the top 4 defenses they faced put up no fewer than 34 points in any of the 4 games, and those defenses ranked on average #16. The Michigan defense did not face a top 10 offense all season, but against the top 4 offenses they did face they allowed 18ppg and those offenses ranked an average of #32. This looks a lot like the numbers from the TCU game a couple of years ago. Michigan didn`t beat Alabama the game was tied after 60 minutes due to Alabama miscues from the center position. Milroe was sacked 5 times which was an integral part of the Michigan win. Michigan ranks #20 in sacks per game at 2.7 per contest, but the Washington offensive line is very strong at pass blocking, and Penix is quick to make decisions and get the ball out, and was sacked just 10 times in 14 games. Like TCU a couple of years ago, Washington has weapons all over the field in the passing game. Polk and Odunze have combined for 2,675 receiving yards and 22 TDs on the season, and are generating 17.5 yards per catch. Washington has 5 different receivers who have caught passes good for 45 yards or more. Dillon Johnson was injured last game, but all indications are he is ready to go for this one. He has provided 1,162 yards on just 222 carries, and 16 TDs. He is a threat that will keep Michigan honest, and prevent a light box so they can`t commit extra players to slow down the passing attack. The Michigan offense has played 7 games vs. top 20 defenses, but that includes Nebraska who is rated #8, and the reason is the lack of quality offenses in the Big-10. Rutgers and Maryland are in that mix as well, and none of those teams would be seen with those rankings in the Pac-12. Nuetral site games with a line of -4.5 to -7 show the favorite at 145-169-8 ATS, and cover just 45% of the time. Specifically at -4.5 they are 21-33 ATS. both cases show an average line value of 2 points for the dog, so this one should be -2.5 based on historical numbers, and at 4.5 it crosses key numbers of 3, and 4. The 2 points here, because of where the line is has more value crossing a pair of key numbers. The line value on the dog when a pair of teams meet that are both 11-0 or better rises to 2.40 for the dog. McCarthy has been very efficient in his last 5 games, but Michigan has become a run oriented tea. He has attempted just 109 passes for 751 total yards. They have run 193 times and passed just 109 times. Washington may come out heavy in the box, and make McCarthy throw more, which he is capable of doing. Harbaugh has been out-coached facing unbeaten teams where he is 11-21-1 ATS. A team that beats Alabama by 7 or more points in their previous game is 10-20 ATS in their next game if posted as a favorite. (0-6 ATS if favored). I like Washington in this one.

Michigan -1.5

This game is going to come down to the Iowa ultra elite defense vs a Tennessee offense that averages 31.5ppg. Tennessee faced 4 elite defenses this season and it did not go well. They scored 20 vs. Texas A&M, 20 vs. Alabama, 7 vs. Missouri, and 10 vs. Georgia, or an average of 14.8ppg. Iowa has a better defense than all of those teams, as well as one of the best special teams units in college football. The issue in this game for Iowa is Superstar Cooper Dejean will not play for Iowa which is a huge loss, on special teams as well. Iowa's top 2 opponents Michigan (26), Penn St. (31), scored the most points, and that was with DeJean. Iowa is going to have to score some points to cover this game and it will take more than the 12ppg they have averaged in their las 7 games. Iowa did not score against Penn St, or Michigan. Make the play on Tennessee.

Oregon comes into this game with 2 losses, both to playoff team Washington by 3 points. This team is almost entirely in tact, and they are coming to play, so an "A" effort is likely. Liberty played one of the 5 easiest schedules in the country. Looking for a quality win? There are none. The Oregon speed, physicality, size, depth, and physicality are all much better than Liberty. My line on this game comes up at Oregon -21.5, and I will play the line value here. Make the play on Oregon.

Most of the talk regarding this Bowl is LSU QB Daniels opting out. He is certainly worth a lot, but otherwise the LSU team is mostly in tact. What most don`t realize is LSU has an elite running attack. They average 6.3 yards per attempt to a schedule of teams that allow 4.3. Wisconsin averaged just 16.8ppg over its last 7 games. LSU has deadly receivers with Malik Nabers (86 catches, 1,546 yards, 14 touchdowns), Brian Thomas Jr. (60-1,079-15) and Kyren Lacy (24-463-7) could give UWs secondary fits. They won`t afford to load up the box and allow these pass catches space. Lost in the Daniels opt out is Wisconsin will be missing their top RB, top 2 WRs, and center. A limited offense is going to be further limited. Make the play on LSU.

This game fits a Bowl situation that is 24-4 to the over. Make the play over the total.

Florida State's level of attrition ahead of its upcoming New Year's Six appearance is eye-opening. The No. 5 Seminoles are set to be without at least 15 players on both sides of the ball in Saturday's Orange Bowl showdown against No. 6 Georgia, including seven players who earned All-ACC honors. Florida St. is down to their 3rd string QB in Brock Glenn, and he was 8/21 for 55 yards vs Louisville, and this will be a much bigger challenge. Florida St. is without their top 3 receivers tht combined to account for 53% of all receiving yards and 15 of 25 TDs. Additionally, the Seminoles have just 1 RB remaining with at least 50 carries. They have suffered key losses on defense as well. What could have been a gret game is now an exhibition game. I look for Georgia to be taking a look at young players for next season as well, and the line has grown so high the game is untouchable but the total should be a great opportunity. Make the play under the total.

With DJ James and Nehemiah Pritchett both expected to opt out of Saturday’s game against Maryland, the Tigers will be without a lot of experience against the Terrapins on the back side of the defense.  Maryland will be without its starting tight end (Corey Dyches), its best linebacker (Jaishawn Barham) and two elite defensive backs (Tarheeb Still and Corey Coley Jr.). Tagovailoa certainly is the biggest loss, but the core of what has been a very good Maryland defense will not be taking part in the bowl game. Overall the balance of who is playing tends to strongly suggest a much higher scoring game. Make the play over the total.

Penn St. has still not been able to get over the top in the Big-10. Michigan and Ohio St. seem to fight it out every season, and Penn St. stands alone as the next best team. The Nitany Lions own the best defense in NCAAF this season and held 9 of 12 opponents to 15 or fewer points and even the elite offenses of Ohio St. (20 points, and Michigan 24), had lots of trouble moving the ball vs. this team. Their other 3 opponents averaged 9.3ppg. Coach Franklin's Penn St. team is 40-14 ATS off a conference win, and overall his team is 95-65-2 ATS. The Ole Miss Rebels have a very potent attack but it was stopped dead by elite defenses (10 points vs. Alabama, and 17 vs. Georgia), and they face a better defense in this one. Make the play on Penn St.

This game comes down to the best defense in the country that has already proven to stand up vs. better offenses than Ole Miss, while the Rebels were stopped cold by Alabama (10 points), and Georgia (17 points), and Penn St. has a better defense than both, but lacks an explosive offense. Stats and situations favor a low scoring game. Ole Miss is 89-56 to the under vs. a winning team since 1992! (16-6 lately). Make the play under the total.

This looks like a bad spot for Ohio St. but a Bowl team that was ranked in the top 7 to start the season and their Bowl opponent is currently in the top 10, and 1 other factor are 17-2 ATS in their Bowl game. Make the play on Ohio St.

A Bowl team that is no more than a 4 point dog (PK or favorite included), playing a December Bowl with a total greater than 45 but fewer than 66 points are 87-64-1 to the under. Make the play under the total.

A lot of action will be on Memphis as they are playing at home. The history books don't show it that way as a Bowl home team is 19-21 ATS. Iowas St. will lose RB's Eli Sanders and Cartevious Norton to the transfer portal, but replacement RB Abu Sama III ran for a very impressive 276 yards and 3 TDs vs, Kansas St. last game. Iowa St. has a gem in freshman QB Rocco Becht. Becht set freshman records at Iowa St. for completions, TDs, and passing yards. Remember Brock Purdy started full time at Iowa St. and had a great freshman season. Iowa St. has a strong defense that can limit the Memphis offense, while Iowa St. should have their way vs the lousy Memphis defense. I like Iowa St.

Both QB's have opted out for this game, and it is likely going to be a game with stacked boxes and short passes, and this game fits a Bowl situation that is 40-13 to the under. Make the play on the under.

NCAAF Bowl teams that are off 4 or more SU and ATS wins are 35-63 ATS (3-10 ATS since 2016, and 16-30 ATS as a favorite). Clemson has 4 situations for this game that are a combined 102-204 ATS. Make the play on Kentucky

Since the start of the 2014 season a Pac-12 Bowl team that is facing a team off a win and the total is greater than 52 is 3-26 ATS failing to cover by 9 points per game. Make the play on Oklahoma.

Once again we have a team allowing 40 or more points prior to their Bowl game, which in a December Bowl is 126-170-4 ATS, and plays against Kansas St. Make the play on NC St.

This game fits my best total which is 691-459 to the under including 23-13 in Bowl games. Make the play under the total.

Boston College lost their final 3 games of the season to finish 6-6. The Eagles sustained 3 losses this season by 25 or more points vs. the better teams on their schedule. SMU put together their best season since at least 1989, as the Mustangs won 11 games. SMU went 9-0 SU as a favorite and covered 6 of the 9, and had a scoring margin of 23.2ppg. They held 8 teams to 16 or fewer points on the season. December Bowl teams that allowed 40 or more points in their last game are 99-133-3 ATS. Make the play on SMU.

The Texas A&M Aggies have not been able to take top recruiting classes and make progress in the SEC. They finished the season at 7-5, and no doubt disappointed. They are feeling the push out the door as 11 starters and at least 7 others have opted out of the Bowl game. It is difficult to see this team making any noise in their game vs Oklahoma St. Not only that, but A&M has lost almost the entire coaching staff including the interim coach. Make the play on Oklahoma St.

The USC season had so much promise, and it went up in flames after starting off looking like a Championship team. I like counter-intuitive plays especially when history rides against the expected outcome here. A bowl team with 3 or more losses that lost their Conference Championship game their last time on the field are 3-19-1 ATS in their Bowl game, with a line from +1, PK, or favorite in a December Bowl. Make the play on USC.

West Virginia has suffered in Bowl games as the Mountaineers are 5-20 ATS since 1980, and 0-11 ATS as a one point dog, or less (favorite). They have an overall 8 game ATS losing streak to any line. North Carolina has 17 players in the portal, but West Virginia has 13. I think replacement freshman QB Conner Harrell is going to surprise. he has limited game experience this season but was good as a passer, and really good as a runner. W. Virginia has lost a lot too including their starting center, which is important. I think the line has moved too much. Hard to get behind a W. Virginia team that has been a no-show in Bowl games for 34 years! Make the play on North Carolina.

Bowl games featuring a team on a 3 game or more streak to the over and playing as a favorite of 3 points or more and a total of fewer than 66 points are 13-40-2 to the under. Make the play under the total.

This line has really changed with the Tulane QB opting out, and the loss of their head coach. I think Tulane will be handing the ball off a lot, and allowing their ball hawking defense ranked 6th in forcing turnovers, play a field position clock running type game. Virginia Tech finished 6-6 with not a single signature win. The 3 toughest defenses they played saw the offense get completely shutdown. They managed 17 vs. Florida St., 16 vs. Rutgers, and 3 vs. Louisville. Tulane has played under in 10 of its last 11 games. Make the play under the total.

This one has a great situation as December Bowl favorites of -8 or more points, that average fewer than 38.5ppg are 37-66-2 ATS and cover just 35.4%. If they are from a P5 Conference they are 14-36-2 ATS covering a woeful 28%. Make the play on UNLV.

This will be a good set up in Texas between a pair of Texas schools and the crowd should be fully engaged for both teams. Rice will be without starting QB J.T. Daniels who has retired from football due to too many concussions.  The starter will be A.J. Padgett, who has not been as good as Daniels but has proven to be more than a serviceable replacement. I think getting 15 practices working with the first team will bridge that gap somewhat. Rice is 3-3 in Bowl games since 1980, and last won one in 2014, so they should be excited to be here. Texas St. comes into this game having allowed 121 total points in their last 2 games, which is more than any Bowl team in history. This will be the first Bowl game in Texas St. history, but a team that averages 35 or more are 225-272-3 ATS in a Bowl game so their opponents cover 55% of 500 gams played which is significant. A team that allowed 40 or more points in their last game entering their Bowl game is 126-170-4 ATS covering just 42.6%. Make the play on Rice, while Rice fits a 51-26 ATS Bowl situation. Make the play on Rice.

One would think that a team that became Bowl eligible because there wasn't enough teams to fill all the slots would probably be very unmotivated. History hasn't had much definitive to say about that, but 5-7 Bowl teams are 4-3 SU and 4-3 ATS. Minnesota is not only a poor offensive team they are going to be missing their starting QB for this game. Bowling Green finished the season at 7-5, but two of the losses came against unbeaten teams (Liberty, Michigan). The Falcons closed the season at 5-1 as the offense took a big leap forward scoring 203 points in their last 6 games compared to 113 in their first 6. This is the first winning season for Bowling Greensinc3 2015. I like Bowling Green in this one.

Bowl game situations can sometimes not have a lot of games in the sample set but this is a long term sample set of 282 games and I rely on it. a team that allowed their last opponent to score 40 or more points before their Bowl game is 123-169-4 ATS. Make the play on San Jose St.

Through 7 games Utah was 6-1 and looked to be in the fight for the Pac-12 Title. They finished a disappointing 2-3 to finish at 8-4. Northwestern finished 7-5 and closed the season 4-2 and 6-0 ATS, and they did not lose any of their last 7 games by 1 possession. This team showed steady improvement all season, while Utah showed steady decline. Utah is also without their QB and 4 starters overall and have lost 14 players to the transfer portal. It isn't bad enough they regressed but they are also missing several key players for this one, and I don't think they will be highly motivated here. Pac-12 teams playing in a Bowl against a team off a win are 6-29-1 ATS since 2014. (0-14 ATS vs.Big-10). Make the play on Northwestern.

When point spreads are this big, there is nothing I can write about that isn't known. Eastern Michigan is a horrible team and playing without their QB against a defense capable of shutting them out. I'm on South Alabama.

James Madison lost at home ending their shot at a perfect season. The Dukes would not be Bowl eligible if not for there being enough teams with 6 wins to qualify. All the Military teams recruit heavily in Texas and their record playing in Texas is off the charts. James Madison however will not be the same team that went 11-1 this season as they will be missing at least 10 starters, including their star QB Jordan McCloud. I have 8 situations that all favor Air Force. The 3 Military teams are a combined 30-14 ATS in Bowl games. Make the play on Air Force.

Another pair of 6-6 teams will meet in the famous Idaho Potato Bowl. Georgia St. looked to be on their way to a great season opening the season 6-1. That 6th win would turn out to be their last win. The Panthers also face the fact that they have 13 players in the portal, so this team that played horribly bad in the 2nd half of the season is even worse. Utah St. Utah St. has beaten every team on its schedule that is equivalent to Georgia St. or worse. They also have played in this Stadium many times vs. Boise St. Statistically the Panthers are by -62 yards a game and Utah St. is +79. Make the play on Utah St.

Troy concluded its regular season at 11-2. They were rewarded with a trip to Birmingham just over 2 hours from campus, so the crowd will decidedly favor Troy in this one. Duke is down to their 3rd string QB freshman Grayson Loftis. Loftis has thrown for 823 yards, but has completed just 53% of his passes. Troy has a big defensse that has sacked opposing QBs 45 times on the season, and that ranks 6th in NCAA Football. The offense is also elite and the Duke defense wasn't as good late in the season as they spent too much time on the field. Troy enters the game on a 10 game winning streak losing games this season to James Madison and Kansas St. Duke will be missing 6 starters for this game. I like Troy in this one.

This is one of 6 Bowl games this season that match a pair of 6-6 teams. Arkansas St. faced the tougher schedule this season. It will be the Northern Illinois running attack, vs. the Arkansas passing attack in this one, and both have an edge. I like the idea of playing the passing attack over a run oriented attack, because if a team falls behind and can't pass they are in trouble. I think this is a pick-em type game with a slight edge to the more successful passing team. Make the play on Arkansas St.

The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets finished the season at 6-6, but they showed the capacity to play with the better teams in the ACC. Georgia Tech Lost to Louisville by just 5, beat Miami, Fla. on the road and took down North Carolina at home. They also lost to SEC powerhouse Georgia by just 8 points. They certainly can hang with Central Florida as the Knights also finished at 6-6. The schedule also included Clemson, and Ole Miss so they have competed with a lot of better teams than they will face here. Central Florida also finished at 6-6, and 2 of their wins came vs. Kent St., and Villanova. This game looks more like a tossup to me, and I will make the play on Georgia Tech

This game fits a bowl total situation that is 33-7-1 to the over. Make the play over the total.Make the play over the total.

The UT San Antonio Roadrunners have become a highly respected mid-major as they are now 31-9 SU over the last 3 years. That reputation has pushed the line in this game to a point where the value comes in question. Marshall needed a win in their last game of the season to become Bowl eligible. Marshall was awful ATS this season at 4-8 ATS, but Bowl teams with a .333 ATS winning percentage are 42-25-2 ATS in their Bowl game. Despite playing games vs. Virginia Tech, which they won outright, James Madison who they lost to by just 11 and NC State who they lost to by just 7, they have not been a dog of more than 10.5 points in any of them and here we have UTSA giving more than any of those games. Huge Bowl favorites have never fared to the level of the line over the years as Bowl favorites of 10.5 or more points are 48-65 ATS. Make the play on Marshall.

It has been a strange season for Old Dominion. The Monarchs completed the regular season 6-6 by winning their last 2 games. They had 2 difficult games vs. Virginia Tech (a 36-17 loss), and Liberty (a 38-10 loss to Liberty). The other 10 games were all decided by 7 or fewer points. That leaves very little margin for error as they are a 4.5 point favorite as of this writing. Taking it a step further, 7 of heir games were decided by 4 or fewer points. This team has been beaten by opt outs, injuries, or the transfer portal as 4 starters will not play and they have 13 players in the transfer portal. Western Kentucky is 7-5 but 3 of the 5 losses have come to Ohio St., Liberty, and Troy. They are 7-2 outside those games. Make the play on Western Kentucky.

This is not the game either team was hoping they would be playing in to start the season. Texas Tech has been hit hard by players in the transfer portal as they have 14, and as of this writing that is the 8th most of any Bowl team. There are 4 starters among the 14 defectors. California comes into this game in good shape from that perspective. All the Bowl situations favor the Bears as well. Make the play on California.

I`m not sure if a team is going to be less motivated than Fresno St. entering its Bowl game. Fresno St. opened the season at 8-1 and looked like a strong candidate for a New Years-6 Bowl. They proceeded to drop their last 3 games of the season to finish 8-4. It was a total collapse on both sides of the ball. I don`t think New Mexico St. presents an exciting opponent, but the Aggies have had a special year. New Mexico St. lost 4 games, and 2 were to unbeaten Liberty, and another was 3 point loss to Hawaii. This is the first time this team has made consecutive Bowl appearances, and they also fit a 58-38 ATS Bowl situation. Make the play on New Mexico St.

The Miami,O. RedHawks will head to the Myrtle Beach Bowl in S.C. with a 9-3 record on the season, and will take on Appalachian St. One of the most revealing stats coming into a Bowl game is points scored in a teams last game. When that number tops 39 in their last game prior to the Bowl game they proceed to go 122-166-4 ATS in their Bowl game. This goes against Appalachian St. in this game, and the play is on Miami, O.

The Jacksonville St. Gamecocks had a very good season at 8-4, and they will take on the Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns in the New Orleans Bowl. Louisiana will have the home crowd advantage playing this game in-state. It took a 52-21 win over UL Monroe for the Ragin' Cajuns to get here. This game comes down to a long standing Bowl outcome when one team has an ATS winning percentage and the other is .500 or better, but not better than .800. These Bowl games have gone 125-81-5 ATS. Make the play on Louisiana.

The Ohio, U. Bobcats finished the season at 9-3, and will take on Georgia Southern who started the season at 6-2, but folded late in the season to lose their final 4 games. A team that enters their Bowl game that doesn't run the ball often tends to struggle in their Bowl game. If a team averages fewer than 31 rushes per contest and are playing in a December Bowl to a line that does not have them as a 3 point dog or more is 11-27 ATS in their Bowl game. I also have a statistical situation where the qualify

I am sorry that there are no write ups this week, as I am traveling.

The play is on the UNDER

I am sorry that there are no write ups this week, as I am traveling.

The play is on Iowa.

I am sorry that there are no write ups this week, as I am traveling.

The play is on the UNDER

I am sorry that there are no write ups this week, as I am traveling.

The play is on SMU

I am sorry that there are no write ups this week, as I am traveling.

The play is on Boise St.

Virginia Tech has not fared well offensively vs. the opponents on their schedule with a strong defense (Louisville 3, and Rutgers 16). They have however scored well when facing most other defenses. The Hokies otherwise average around 30ppg. Virginia is giving up 32ppg so I see the Hokies moving the ball well here. Virginia has an improved offense. The Cavs averaged just 21.4ppg through their first 5 games, but over their last 6 have averaged 26ppg. This game looks like it should be in the high 50s, and the game applies to a 177-108 ATS situation to the over as well. Make the play over the total.

Miami, O. is a very strong defense for a MAC team as they have allowed just 16.5ppg on the season. The Red Hawks are allowing just 10ppg in MAC games. Ball St. allowed 40 points or more in 4 of their first 5 games but in their last 5 games they have allowed less than 15ppg. Neither of these teams have much of an offense and they tend to just run the ball and play field position. Make the play under the total.

These teams are about dead even from the line of scrimmage and have played a very similar strength of schedule. I am leaning on the fact that Ohio St. is 17-4 ATS since 2008 as a dog, and they are also 12-9 SU in those games. The Buckeyes have played great on the road for over 3 decades where they are 87-59 ATS. I am backing Ohio St. in this one.

The Oregon Ducks in my estimation are a playoff team, and many agree as the line is this game has shot up all week. They have struggled against the 2 best offenses they have faced as they lost by 3 to Washington, and beat USC by just 9 points. Oregon St. has a very good offense and should have beaten Washington last week but a 2 turnover deficit did them in. Oregon St. is 34-14 ATS off a 7 or fewer point conference loss in their last 48 tries, as well as 46-22 ATS if they have held their last 2 opponents to 125 or fewer rushing yards. I like Oregon St. in this one.

Penn St. and Michigan St. will clash tonight at Ford Field in Detroit. Penn St. still can't get over the top as losses to Michigan and Ohio St. by fewer thn 10 points each, has them on the outside looking in again for any Big-10 Championship aspirations. Penn St. has a highly rated defense, but the offense has not been able to deliver when needed and is below average. I can't imagine this will be a highly motivational spot for Michigan St. as the game really doesn't mean a whole lot. Michigan St. has a chance to make their season with a win, and I expect them to show up. Too many points. Make the play on Michigan St.

Boise St. has been a 2 QB team this season, but the best of the two, Maddox Madsen is out for the season. That means Taylen Green who has thrown for almost 2 full yards per attempt on the season gets the start. Green has thrown for fewer TDs despite throwing 48 more passes than Madsen, as well as twice as many picks. Zac Larrier is out at QB for Air Force as well. That doesn't matter a whole lot as Air Force has thrown the ball just 82 times all season and Jensen Jones has run the ball better at 5 yards a carry at QB out of the triple-option. I think the fact that Air Force started the season at 8-0 and has lost 3 straight games has really changed the line here, and the value is on Air Force. The Falcons had 10 turnovers in 2 of the 3 losses, which is not going to translate forward. Make the play on Air Force.

The Central Michigan Chippewa's have their work cut out for them as they host the 10-1 Toledo Rockets. Central Michigan is 5-6 and need a win to gain Bowl eligibility. Home dogs looking to become bowl eligible in their final game cover just 45% of the time. Toledo is 10-1 on the season and to come from way behind vs. Bowling Green last week in a thrilling 32-31 win. A team that is better than .900 winning percentage off a 1 point win is 99-79-1 ATS covering 55.6% of all games. The Toledo offense should dominate this game vs the very leaky Central Michigan defense. Make the play on Toledo.

The Akron football program has never been able to get any traction and this season is no different. Since the start of the 2019 season the Zips are 7-46 SU and 20-33 ATS, and that includes 7-17 ATS at home where they clearly have no advantage losing by better than 16ppg on their own field. Thing gets worse for the Zips when playing at home to a spread of 13 or more where they are a woeful 1-9 SU and 0-10 ATS. Ohio, U. is 8-3 and is a below average offense, but better than average on defense, and they should limit Akron to very few points in this contest. Ohio, U. has a long history of beating up on awful teams. They are 38-22 ATS since 1992 when taking on a team with a winning percentage of .250 or less. Make the play on Ohio, U.

This Egg Bowl rivalry goes back a long way. Ole Miss comes into this game t 9-2 on the season and the 2 losses were to top 10 teams in Georgia, and Alabama. The defense looks worse than it actually is because they have faced Alabama,LSU, and Georgia. They allowed 1,605 yards in those 3 games. Otherwise the defense has been slightly above average. Miss St. has a brutal offense, and before facing a cupcake last week in Southern Miss, the Bulldogs scored just 33 points in 4 SEC games. Overall they have averaged 14.8ppg in 7 SEC contests, and against a high powered offense in Ole Miss, that is not going to get it done. This series is tied 17-17 over the last 34 years. I don't like a double-digit road favorite in a big rivalry match up. I'm more robust on the total, which is currently in the mid-50s. The last 34 meetings these teams have combined to score over 55 total points just 7 times!The last 27 meetings has produced 20 games under the total. Ole Miss is also 18-5 ATS to the under if they allowed 3 or fewer points in first half of their last game. Make the play under the total.

Eastern Michigan can secure a bowl bid as they enter this game at 5-6 for the season. The weather tonight in Buffalo will be a factor in this game, as rain is forecast and wind will be gusting into the 30+ MPH range. Road dogs tend to play well when there is a very low total. That is even better when it is a conference game. Conference road dogs are 49-26-3 ATS when the total is 40 or fewer points and the road dog line is less than a TD (Less than +7). The worst part of the Buffalo defense is stopping the run where they allow 5.2 yards per attempt to a schedule of teams that average 4.4. I expect a lot of running in this game due to the high winds, and Eastern Michigan has an advantage in that metric. Make the play on Eastern Michigan.

The Oregon Ducks are 8-2 on the season after winning 10 games last season. They have a chance to be the only Oregon St. team since at least 1989 to win 20 games over 2 consecutive seasons. They have a chance at home tonight (more on them at home later), to make some noise and shaking things up Nationally as well as the Pac-12 standings. This is a huge game for the Beavers and their fan base, and there will be a lot of life at this game in favor of the home team. Washington is the best offense in NCAAF, but the Beavers are a lot closer than it may look. Washington through 4 games this season averaged 50ppg and was allowing 17. Their last 6 they have averaged 35.2ppg and have allowed 28ppg. Those are not good numbers going against a very capable Oregon St. tea,. The Beavers have been unstoppable at home. They are 16-1 SU and 16-1 ATS over the last 3 years at home, and have out-scored opponents by 20ppg. Their only loss was last season to USC and by just 3 points. I like Oregon St.

I think you can make a strong argument that Notre Dame is the best 3 loss team in NCAA Football. The Irish have had a top shelf schedule. Wake Forest has totally collapsed as the Demon Deacons started the season at 3-0, they have since gone 1-6. Statistically, there is line value here, and when you add in a very strong situation that applies to Notre Dame, it is a very solid play. A home favorite of -20 or more points, that is coming off 13 days rest (bye week), are an amazing 114-62-7 ATS and covering 65% of all games in a significant sample size. Make the play on Notre Dame

A lot of sports outcomes have a lot to do with mach ups, and this is a horrible match up for Temple. Temple has one of the worst pass defenses in the country as they allow 9 yards per attempt to a schedule of teams that have averaged just 7.1. The strength of the UAB team is their passing attack. The Blazers average 7.9 yards per attempt vs. a schedule of teams allowing 7.3. There is no other huge mismatch on either side of the ball, so I think UAB has a big edge here. Make the play on UAB.

Memphis and SMU are both 8-2 on the season, so this is a huge game for both teams. The records may be the same, but not the teams. SMU is better offensively, and significantly better defensively. SMU to a similar schedule strength as Memphis has out-gained their opponents by 2.1 yards per play, while Memphis has out-gained their opponents by just 0.3 yards a play. There is a significant edge to SMU in a key element of handicapping. Memphis is 22-44 ATS after scoring 42 or more points last game, and just 5-14 ATS vs. teams that complete better than 58% of their passes over the last 3 years. I'm on SMU in this one.

LSU has the best offense in NCAA Football this season by a significant margin. The Tigers are averaging 45.2ppg on the season and should have no trouble reaching or exceeding that number vs a Florida defense that has allowed better than 40ppg in their last 3 contests, and this is the best offense they will see all season. Florida has an above average offense that will put up a lot of points vs an LSU defense that is significantly below average. The LSU schedule shows they have hung up huge numbers to a schedule of teams with above average defenses, so there is no limit on what their offense can do vs Florida. This game also fits a situation that is 136-77 ATS to the over as well. Make the play OVER the total, my NCAAF Total of the year.

Oregon St. has won more than 7 games just 1 time since 2012, and the Beavers are taking on Stanford at home. Oregon St. is 7-2 on the season, and this team ranks right up there with one of their better teams. The Beavers offense has produced 35.2ppg this season. They will be hosting a Stanford team that is allowing over 34ppg and there should be plenty of opportunities to score. Stanford is 2-7 on the season and is coming off a 10-7 win vs Washington St. as a 14 point road dog. A team that wins their last game as a double-digit road dog, and are playing on the road again as a 20 point or more dog have covered just 37.5% of all games. Oregon St. has the offense and defense to turn this into a blowout. Make the play on Oregon St.

Troy has won 10 or more games in 4 of the past 7 seasons, and at 7-2 they are heading in that direction again. This team has lost only to Kansas st., and came withing 2 points of unbeaten James Madison. The defense has been their anchor over the last 5 games where they have won and covered all of them on the strength of a defense that has allowed 6.6ppg in the 5 games. This team has a lot of mojo going right now. LA Monroe has not had a winning season since 2012. The Warhawks have allowed 37ppg in their last 7. Everything lines up for a big blowout win by the Trojans, including a 228-154 ATS situation based on momentum. Make the play on Troy.

Tulane has a few games left, but the 20 wins they have achieved since the start of last season are the most in Tulane football history over a 2 consecutive year period. Last year the Green Wave averaged 36ppg, but the offense is not as good this season, as they average just 28.7ppg. Moreover, the defense is improved from allowing 22.2ppg a year ago to 19.3ppg this season. The Tulsa offense is very bad, and in their 3 games vs the top 3 defenses on their schedule they produced an average of 12.3ppg. I expect they get less than that in this game. Tulane has been 7-1 to the under in its last 8 games and has not exceeded 37 points in any game all season. There is plenty of margin for this game to come up shy of the total, and the play is on the UNDER.

Michigan brings a perfect record into this contest at Penn St., but an imperfect ugly situation that continues to haunt them and Coach Harbough is suspended through the regular season, and won't be on the sidelines for this one. Michigan has faced a rather soft schedule. Penn St.has an average offense, but the defense gives them field position, and they are still averaging 40.2ppg. Michigan has not faced a top 25 team all season, and playing at Happy Valley in front of over 100,000 fans is never easy. Coach Franklin has some stunning numbers as Coach at Penn St. His team off a conference win is 38-13-2 ATS. A home dog from game 10 on that allows fewer than 9 points per game is 15-6 ATS. There are many more situations in the Nitany Lion's camp for this one, and a win would greatly improve their chances of making the 4 team playoff. Make the play on Penn St.

The Akron football program has really struggled, especially over the last 5 years where they are a woeful 7-44 SU. Any chance they had at moving the needle this season ended when QB D.J. Irons went down with an ACL injury.They are left with left with Jeff Undercuffler. This team could run the ball pretty good because of Irons, but now they don't even have a running game, let alone being down to a 2nd string QB. The defense has held its own as the Zips allow just 344 yards per game. Miami, Ohio lost star Jeff Gabbert, and his backup  Aveon Smith has been dreadful. Miami is going to put the ball on the ground, and let their strong defense take the game over. I don't see a lot of points here, and will make the play under the total.

Rice has coughed up some weird games as they lost to UConn at home. It is the Huskies only win this season. They also lost to South Florida by 13. Then there is the good Rice that lost to Tulane by just 2 points, and beat Houston by 2 points. This looks like such an ugly game after SMU has dominated their last 2 opponents by a combined score of 124-10. Rice has walked this road many times over the years, and they have been one of the best home dogs in the country. Rice is 55-37-2 ATS in their last 94 as a home dog, including 47-22-2 ATS if the line is fewer than 13 points. Rice is a perfect 19-0-1 ATS when they are a conference home dog, after covering their previous game by more than 6 points since 1991! Mke the play on Rice.

Looking at some of the numbers for this game tells a big story. New Mexico has the worst or second worst defense in the FBS. When you place that defense against a UNLV offense that has scored 40 points in the 5 games vs bad defenses, and New Mexico is worse than those teams in terms of defense. I expect New Mexico to move the ball on offense, but without getting stops they can`t keep up here. I`m playing on UNLV.

Hawaii has not been good all season but lately they look like there is a disconnect somewhere. Hawaii has allowed over 40ppg in their last 4 contests, all losses. They haven't covered a game since September 9, and that was vs. FCS Albany. Nevada is no bargain, but this team is showing signs of life and still being connected. Nevada shut-out San Diego on the road as an 11.5 point dog. They followed that up with a big win vs. New Mexico. Nevada is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games. It is never easy for Hawaii to come to the mainland. They are 154-106 SU at home and 51-121 SU on the road. Hawaii is a good play against on the road vs. any team as they cover just 44% of the time. Make the play on Nevada.

This may be the last game between Oklahoma and Oklahoma St. in a long time. Oklahoma suffered a stunning loss at Kansas last week. The Sooners over their past 3 games have combined to out-score them by a total of 1 point. One of the hardest things in college football is being an unbeaten team of 5-0 or better and lose that first game. These teams blindly bet cover 55% of all bets. Statistically, Oklahoma is the better team, but that was the case in Oklahoma's last 3 games, and all 3 went down to the wire. I expect nothing less in this one. Oklahoma St. is 7-1 SU and 7-1 ATS as a home dog in their last 8. I like Oklahoma St.

This game looked like it may be bigger that it actually is coming into the season. There is one big reason I like this game. Everyone is basing Clemson as if they are 8-0 right now or 7-1 like they have been for a long time. That isn't Clemson anymore. They are 4-4, and they are good, but only on the defensive side of the ball. They are slightly negative on the season. The Notre Dame offense is as good as the Clemson defense, but the Clemson offense is far worse than the Notre Dame defense. I feel Notre Dame caps out as a favorite here, as reluctant as the books are posting Clemson as a home dog. This isn't the same caliber team's we have seen before, and Notre Dame is. Make the play on Notre Dame.

The Toledo Rockets will determine their own fate as the Rockets are 7-1 on the season, with the only loss coming to Illinois by 2 points on the road. The Rockets have out-gained the last 7 opponents they have faced. They have out-gained their schedule of opponents by well over 100 yards per game. Buffalo has one of the worst offenses in the country, and in addition to that the match ups are all in favor of Toledo. I would not be surprised to see Toledo run for 300+ yards in this oneThink this line is considerably shy of what it should be. Toledo has finished all but 1 of their seasons at ,500 or above since 2010, a traditionally strong MAC team, and cover 55% of their home games. Make the play on Toledo.

Both these teams enter this contest at 4-4, but there are a lot of differences. Central Michigan is awful on offense and averages a woeful 6.4 yards per play while allowing 8.1. These teams are pretty much on par regarding strength of schedule. Northern Illinois and their plus running game should move the ball rather easily, and they out-gain their schedule of opponents by 0.5 yards per play. Northern Illinois has been about as good as it gets on the road where ther are 49-22 ATS since 2012, including 19-8 ats if it is a conference game.

The James Madison Dukes had an extended period in the FCS where they put out a Championship contender just about every year. So far that has translated well to the FBS as the Dukes are 7-0. James Madison is allowing 1.2 yards per carry on the season, and also has an above average pass defense. When it comes to throwing the ball JMU is elite as they average 8.6 yards per attempt to a schedule of teams allowing just 7. A team that is 7-0 and a home favorite of fewer than 37.5 points are 63-43-4 ATS with a subset that is 51-18-1 ATS. Make the play on James Madison.

This will be a good match up as both these teams come into this contest at 5-2. A Bowl invite awaits the winner. Looking at this game Troy has been a significantly better team from the line of scrimmage than Texas St. They are even from the line of scrimmage on offense and slightly negative on defense. Troy caps out as an elite mid-major as they are 1.5 yards better from the line of scrimmage, which sets up a large mismatch. The Troy defense has allowed a combined 10 points in their last 3 games, and should be able to turn back Texas St. Troy has also played a significantly stronger schedule. Make the play on Troy.

East Carolina has one of the worst offenses in all of the FBS. The Pirates have averaged just 13ppg vs FBS teams. UTSA has been a solid under team all season, and both teams have combined for a 10-4 mark to the under on the season. That just supports my best total system that generally wins a lot of games. Make the play under the total.

I think Chris Creighton has done a good job at Eastern Michigan. He took over the program that was on the edge of existing with bad season after bad seasons. He has led Eastern Michigan to bowl games, and they are much more competitive. This was not supposed to be a good season, but he has his team 4-4. The issue here is his team has been out-gained in all 8 games despite a very easy schedule. Their not as good as their record. Western Michigan is much better than their 2-6 record. The Bronco's have 6 losses to Syracuse, Iowa, Toledo, Miss St., Miami, O., and Ohio U. They have been on average in those 6 losses a +20 point dog. They were favored by a combined 15.5 points in their 2 wins and won both by 18. I think the records are misleading and this is a good spot for Western Michigan.

SMU is 5-2 on the season, but I think they are better than that. The 2 losses came against Oklahoma, who they out-gained, and TCU who out-gained them by 50 Yards. They are 5-0 vs everyone else and have the defense has been huge. SMU has not allowed any of those 5 opponents to gain 300 yards, and the Mustangs are allowing just 8ppg in the 5 games. Tulsa is off a 32 point home loss to Rice. SMU is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite of -17 or more points and winning by 35ppg. Make the play on SMU.

The Nevada Wolfpack has started the season 0-6. Nevada despite being 0-6 has out-played their stats which adds further value on this game. This is a team with a significantly low offensive efficiency, and has been out-gained on the season by almost 200 yards per game. Nevada now has a 16 game losing streak, and has covered just 5 times in the 16 games. San Diego St. does one thing above average as they can throw the ball some, and against one of the worst pass defenses in the country, they will have success moving the chains, and ripping off big plays. San Diego St. is 70-47 ATS against a losing team over the past 30 years. Make the play on San Diego St.

It looks like there is some line bias in this game. Toledo seems to be good most years, and the Rockets head to Miami, Ohio at 6-1 to take on the upstart Miami, Ohio Red Hawks who is also 6-1. Miami, Ohio should get a boost on offense as their star WR in Gage Larvadain make his return today. Toledo owns 3 wins by 7 or fewer points, and on average they were a -16 point favorite in the 3 games. Toledo is in several bad situations for this game. Since the start of the 2014 season a team posted as a home dog that comes into the game having won 4 or more straight games is 60-34-2 ATS. Make the play on Miami, Ohio.

This is the biggest game of the day as Penn St. heads to Ohio St. with both teams at 6-0 on the season. Both defenses are extremely good, and Penn St. has been brilliant on the defensive side of the ball as the Nittany Lions are allowing just 194 yards per game and just 8ppg. This game looks like a very good match up, but there is a lot in play here for Penn St. from a situational aspect. Penn St. brings the momentum of winning and covering 2 straight games, and after doing so they are 16-0-1 ATS. Games played between a pair of teams that are both 5-0 or better has seen the dog prevail 18-7 SU and 19-5-1 ATS. Penn St. has run an average of 21 more plays a game than their opponent, while Ohio St. is at -2. I like Penn St. in this one.

This game fits one of my 2 best total situations that has been off the charts good. It has been 104-33-12 ATS to the under. I play this one blind when it comes up because it is very strong. Make the play UNDER the total.

Greg Schiano had success at Rutgers his first time around, and he is starting to move the needle in his 2nd stint at Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights have a very good defense that should shut down the Hoosier mediocre offense. Rutgers is allowing jut 16ppg on the season. Indiana has had trouble scoring against the better defenses on its schedule and I don't think that is going to change today.  and could become bowl-eligible with a win. Indiana has only beaten Akron by 2 points this season and were out-gained by over 200 yards. The other win is vs. FCS Indiana St. an easy win. A team that over its last 7 games is +49 or more points better than their opponent and has a winning record vs. a losing team is 79-49 ATS as a road favorite. Make the play on Rutgers.

Most will shy away to making a play on Iowa. It is well known they don't move the ball well, but it seems like that has been a problem most years. The one good thing is Iowa has a rock solid defense as usual. Iowa is down to a backup QB that is worse. The Hawkeyes however have the best special teams in the country, and when you are playing in an anticipated low scoring game, special teams are far more important. Wisconsin is average offensively and slightly better than average defensively. Make the play on Iowa.

Most will shy away to making a play on Iowa. It is well known they don't move the ball well, but it seems like that has been a problem most years. The one good thing is Iowa has a rock solid defense as usual. Iowa is down to a backup QB that is worse. The Hawkeyes however have the best special teams in the country, and when you are playing in an anticipated low scoring game, special teams are far more important. Wisconsin is average offensively and slightly better than average defensively. Make the play on Iowa.

The Ohio, U. Bobcats lost their opener at San Diego St. 20-13. They have since beaten Iowa St. holding them to 7 points, and has not allowed any team to score more than 17 points in any of their last 5. This game is capping significantly under, and there is also bad weather for this game, and heavy winds and rains are going to limit kicking and the passing game. Both teams are good against the run and neither runs the ball that well. Make the play under the total.

The Western Michigan Broncos went to Mississippi St. and came home with a loss, but they did cover the game. The Broncos are 2-4 on the season. Miami, O.is likely getting their best player back from injury in Gage Larvadain. The Red Birds are 5-1 on the season, despite Larvadain missing 3 games. Miami, O. fits a strong 108-53 ATS situation. Make the play on Miami, O.

Kent St. did not bring an offensive player back from last season, and just 4 defenders. This is a brand new team, and the Golden Flashes are still looking for a win vs. an FBS opponent where they are 0-5. They have played a tough schedule. Kent St. in their 5 games vs. FBS opponents was on average a 28 point dog. They now get a game vs Eastern Michigan who has started 3-3, but to a very soft schedule. Eastern Michigan may be 3-3 but they are averaging just over 14ppg in their 5 games vs. FBS opponents. Eastern Michigan is being out-gained by 137 yards per game, and I think the number here is too big. Make the play on Kent St.

The Jacksonville Gamecocks are 5-1 on the season, but have had the magical turnover luck on their side all season. The Gamecocks have had 4 of their games where the opponent turned the ball over 3 or more times, and in their 5 wins they have averaged 3 turnovers, and are +10 on the season through 6 games. They have been out-gained by their opponent in 4 of their 6 games. Liberty is 5-0 and has out-gained their opponents by over 160 yards per game. Liberty has also had a higher strength of opponent average. Liberty is 51-27-2 ATS all-time, and 13-5 ATS when they are unbeaten on the season. Make the play on Liberty.

The Texas Longhorns have started 4-0 and they have been good on both sides of the ball. The Longhorns however are averaging just 35ppg, and the defense has been top shelf. Texas is allowing 12.5ppg on the season. overall their games have averaged just 47.5 total points per game. Kansas is also off to a 4-0 start. Kansas has been pretty good defensively allowing 24ppg. Kansas will limit the number of Texas possessions as the Jayhawks run a very slow offense that while they have possession yields 2 plays per minute. Kansas has had 3 games vs FBS opponents and the only game where more than 60 points were scored was their last game, but that game had 2 defensive TDs, so it actually would have been the lowest scoring game of the 3, so I think there is a spike in the total that does not belong. This game also fits a total situation that is 99-48 ATS. Make the play UNDER the total.

Ball St. has really struggled trying to move the chains. The Cardinals are averaging just 16ppg. They did have 2 very tough opponents against Kentucky, and Georgia. The problem is in their last game vs. Georgia Southern, they were beaten all around 40-3. W. Michigan had 2 powerhouse games themselves against Iowa and unbeaten Syracuse. I think Ball St. was exposed to being the bad team they are, and Western Michigan should be by better than a FG in this one. I like Western Michigan.

This game fits one of my strongest total situations that is 169-91 ATS. Make the play on the UNDER.

This is a big game for both teams. Clemson is 2-2 on the season, and can't take another loss or their season, by their own standards, is over. Syracuse has an opportunity to go 5-0 with a good win under their belt. Clemson has not been the same since their top QB's that won them two Championships. Clemson is grading out average on offense. Clemson is strong defensively, but not the same way this team used to be built. I think Clemson might be a bit over-rated because they earned the right to be, but it doesn't apply here. I like Syracuse.

Minnesota is off to a 2-2 start with an expected loss vs. North Carolina, and a bad loss last week vs. Northwestern. Minnesota has a very good running game and they should be able to have a lot of success on the ground. The passing game has been poor, but LA Lafayette has doesn't defend it well either. LA Lafayette has faced 4 teams that have yet to win a game vs. an FBS school. The offensive numbers they have put up against cupcakes will not translate to this game. The 3-1 record is quite deceptive, and Minnesota fits a situation that is 76-41 ATS. Make the play on Minnesota.

This could be a very sleepy game, without a lot of action at least beyond the goal line. Jacksonville St. is a healthy 3-1 to start the season, but in their 3 games vs FBS opponents they have scored 18ppg. Outside of the best offense they have seen in Coastal Carolina, they have held their other 3 opponents to just 5.7ppg. Those numbers may turn out to go down after this game as Sam Houston St. has scored 10 total points in 3 games. They are averaging 148 yards per game of total offense. Both offenses are significantly below average while both defenses are significantly above average. I don't see a lot of ball movement here. Make the play under the total.

Louisiana is going to be significantly under-valued in this game, because they have lost starting QB Ben Woolridge to a foot injury. That may not turn out as most think. Backup QB Zeon Chriss is more than capable. Chris has thrown just 20 passes on the season but completed 14 of them at 8.7 yards per attempt, which in a small sample size is hard to measure. Chriss is also a very good runner as he has 7 carries for 116 yards, so the running game will be upgraded substantially with him calling signals. Buffalo is 0-3 on the season, with a loss to Wisconsin as expected, but also a loss to Fordham. The Bulls allow over 44ppg. while their offense is also significantly below average. Louisiana is averaging almost 37ppg and may be a better offense with the backup. I like Louisiana.

The Texas St. Bobcats have not won more than 4 games in any of their last 8 seasons.They took a chance on bringing in head coach G.J. Kinne and his OC Mack Leftwich from Incarnate Word. Incarnate Word finished 12-2 and averaged 51ppg. Those numbers have translated even better at the FBS level. The Bobcats have the biggest upset of the season so far as they trounced Baylor as a 26.5 point dog. They put up 42 on Baylor. Going back to week 9 of 2018 this Baylor team had allowed an opponent to score 40 or more points just 2 other times. Texas St. is averaging 44ppg, and will host a Nevada team that I have ranked in the bottom 5 of all FBS teams. This game is a complete mismatch on both sides of the ball, and fits a momentum situation for the Bobcats that is 77-34 ATS. Make the play on Texas St.

This line has been growing in favor of LSU, and I think the influence of Arkansas' loss to BYU 38-31 has many down on this Arkansas team. That loss wasn't as bad as it looked. The Razorbacks out-gained the Cougars 414-281. They had 2 costly turnovers, so they controlled the line of scrimmage, and lost a game they should have won. LSU is also in a look ahead spot with a big game coming up next week at Ole Miss. Most of the game will be decided by the LSU offense vs. the Arkansas defense. LSU has moved the ball well on everyone, but was slowed down by Florida St. Arkansas has stopped everyone and out-gained all 3 opponents, but this will be the toughest offense they have faced all season. These teams have scored a combined 52 points the last 2 years, and Arkansas has been good in Baton Rouge where they are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 trips here. Since Sam Pittman took over at Arkansas his team is 23-15-1 ATS and always seem to be under-valued. (15-10-1 ATS in conference games. His teams is also 12-7 ATS as a dog. I think this is closer than it looks, and LSU is always considered to be an impossible place to win, so the lines tend to be skewed as they are 76-98-4 ATS at home. Make the play on Arkansas.