Sports Picks & Predictions

All Sports Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
01-20-24	Texans v. Ravens UNDER 43.5	Top	10-34	Loss	-110	31 h 58 m	Show
There are a lot of factors playing into this selection. First and foremost the weather, and its impact on each team. There is a snowstorm in Baltimore today, which won't impact the play tomorrow, but what lies in its wake will. Game time temperatures tomorrow will be in the 20s. Moreover, the wind will be sustained between 15-20 MPH and gusting into the 30s.The Houston offense does not run the ball well, and the Baltimore defense excels vs. the run. Houston predicates a lot of what they do on the deep threat, but the weather, and a strong Baltimore pass defense is going to negate that. Baltimore runs the ball as well as any team in the league, and going against a soft Houston run defense, their offense is made for games like this. An abstract study on NFL games proved that a wind of 13 MPH or more sustained has more of a negative impact on the visiting team, especially if they are a dome team. The actual total in these windy conditions drop by just 2.05 ppg from the same teams playing in a dome, but the actual impact is 6.15ppg, and thus the under converts 65% of all games. Not much more needs to be said. Make the play on the under.
01-15-24	Eagles v. Bucs UNDER 43.5	Top	9-32	Win	100	78 h 9 m	Show
This is going to be a tough physical game. I get the feeling the Eagles are hiding an injury to Jalen Hurts. If not then for some reason he just fell off a cliff. His stats are hard to hide. Last year he threw 25 TDs and 6 INTs. This season 23 TDs and 15 INTs. He is running the ball at fewer than 4 yards per carry. His numbers are ugly. Tampa Bay has problems of their own. Baker Mayfield sat out of practice Thursday. He has compound injuries. He is dealing with a bad ankle, as well as injured ribs. His status is still up in the air, but my best guess he will play at some form below what he has done on the season. I think this game is going to be ugly, and the best bet is under the total.
01-14-24	Rams v. Lions OVER 51.5	Top	23-24	Loss	-110	56 h 50 m	Show
The Detroit Lions have won just 1 playoff game in 66 years (1992). They are a tough team to play, but lost their TE last game to injury and he was an integral part of the offense. There are plenty of weapons left as the Lions still have 3 more receivers with 10 or more TDs. Will it be enough? The Rams arguably have been the best team in the NFL in the last 8 games at 7-1. The loss was in OT at Baltimore, the best team in the AFC. The Rams offense over their last 7 games is averaging 30ppg. It averaged 19.8ppg prior to that. The Lions put up 30+ points 9 times, and this game looks to me like the highest scoring game of the weekend. The Rams have played 6 of their last 7 to the over, with the only miss by 1/2 point. The Lions are 12-5 to the over at home with an average points scored in those games og 55.5ppg. Make the play over the total.
01-13-24	Browns v. Texans OVER 44.5	Top	14-45	Win	100	30 h 38 m	Show
The Houston Texans made a giant leap forward making the playoffs. Houston in their previous 3 seasons managed a total of 11 wins, while posting 10 this season. A lot of that had to do with rookie QB C.J. Stroud, who had one of the best rookie seasons ever. He will face a Cleveland defense that is one of the best in the league, but with that being said the Browns defense did allow 20+ points in 11 of their games. There is one huge thing that stands out with this Browns defense. The Browns played 12 games on grass this season and allowed just 17.6ppg. It was an entirely different story when they played on artificial turf, where in their 5 games they allowed 30.2ppg, and also scored 25.6ppg. All 5 games went well over the total by an average of 16.7ppg. Joe Flacco has elevated the Browns offense as in his 5 starts they have averaged 28.8ppg. Games tend to average more points played on turf and indoors, as the elements don't come into play, or a retractable roof is open when the elements don't come into play. Make the play over the total.
12-30-23	Toledo v. Wyoming OVER 44	Top	15-16	Loss	-110	78 h 54 m	Show
This game fits a Bowl situation that is 24-4 to the over. Make the play over the total.
12-30-23	Georgia v. Florida State UNDER 44.5	Top	63-3	Loss	-110	78 h 41 m	Show
Florida State's level of attrition ahead of its upcoming New Year's Six appearance is eye-opening. The No. 5 Seminoles are set to be without at least 15 players on both sides of the ball in Saturday's Orange Bowl showdown against No. 6 Georgia, including seven players who earned All-ACC honors. Florida St. is down to their 3rd string QB in Brock Glenn, and he was 8/21 for 55 yards vs Louisville, and this will be a much bigger challenge. Florida St. is without their top 3 receivers tht combined to account for 53% of all receiving yards and 15 of 25 TDs. Additionally, the Seminoles have just 1 RB remaining with at least 50 carries. They have suffered key losses on defense as well. What could have been a gret game is now an exhibition game. I look for Georgia to be taking a look at young players for next season as well, and the line has grown so high the game is untouchable but the total should be a great opportunity. Make the play under the total.
12-30-23	Auburn v. Maryland OVER 46.5	Top	13-31	Loss	-110	76 h 26 m	Show
With DJ James and Nehemiah Pritchett both expected to opt out of Saturday’s game against Maryland, the Tigers will be without a lot of experience against the Terrapins on the back side of the defense. Maryland will be without its starting tight end (Corey Dyches), its best linebacker (Jaishawn Barham) and two elite defensive backs (Tarheeb Still and Corey Coley Jr.). Tagovailoa certainly is the biggest loss, but the core of what has been a very good Maryland defense will not be taking part in the bowl game. Overall the balance of who is playing tends to strongly suggest a much higher scoring game. Make the play over the total.
12-30-23	Ole Miss v. Penn State UNDER 49	Top	38-25	Loss	-113	74 h 22 m	Show
This game comes down to the best defense in the country that has already proven to stand up vs. better offenses than Ole Miss, while the Rebels were stopped cold by Alabama (10 points), and Georgia (17 points), and Penn St. has a better defense than both, but lacks an explosive offense. Stats and situations favor a low scoring game. Ole Miss is 89-56 to the under vs. a winning team since 1992! (16-6 lately). Make the play under the total.
12-29-23	Missouri v. Ohio State UNDER 49.5	Top	14-3	Win	100	79 h 3 m	Show
A Bowl team that is no more than a 4 point dog (PK or favorite included), playing a December Bowl with a total greater than 45 but fewer than 66 points are 87-64-1 to the under. Make the play under the total.
12-29-23	Notre Dame v. Oregon State UNDER 42	Top	40-8	Loss	-110	74 h 18 m	Show
Both QB's have opted out for this game, and it is likely going to be a game with stacked boxes and short passes, and this game fits a Bowl situation that is 40-13 to the under. Make the play on the under.
12-28-23	Rutgers v. Miami-FL UNDER 40.5	Top	31-24	Loss	-110	52 h 26 m	Show
This game fits my best total which is 691-459 to the under including 23-13 in Bowl games. Make the play under the total.
12-27-23	North Carolina v. West Virginia UNDER 54.5	Top	10-30	Win	100	54 h 40 m	Show
Bowl games featuring a team on a 3 game or more streak to the over and playing as a favorite of 3 points or more and a total of fewer than 66 points are 13-40-2 to the under. Make the play under the total.
12-27-23	Virginia Tech v. Tulane UNDER 44.5	Top	41-20	Loss	-110	50 h 9 m	Show
This line has really changed with the Tulane QB opting out, and the loss of their head coach. I think Tulane will be handing the ball off a lot, and allowing their ball hawking defense ranked 6th in forcing turnovers, play a field position clock running type game. Virginia Tech finished 6-6 with not a single signature win. The 3 toughest defenses they played saw the offense get completely shutdown. They managed 17 vs. Florida St., 16 vs. Rutgers, and 3 vs. Louisville. Tulane has played under in 10 of its last 11 games. Make the play under the total.
12-22-23	Central Florida v. Georgia Tech OVER 66	Top	17-30	Loss	-110	3 h 32 m	Show
This game fits a bowl total situation that is 33-7-1 to the over. Make the play over the total.Make the play over the total.
12-17-23	Commanders v. Rams UNDER 51	Top	20-28	Win	100	7 h 46 m	Show
Washington is allowing better than 40ppg in their last 3, and that make the over appear very attractive. However, a team that has allowed 115 or more points in their last 3 games are 53-28 to the under. Coach McVay is also 48-32 to the under when his team is posted as a favorite, and Washington is 97-71 to the under as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Make the play under the total.
12-17-23	Chiefs v. Patriots UNDER 37.5	Top	27-17	Loss	-110	3 h 21 m	Show
This would normally be a trap game for Kansas City, but off of 2 losses they will show up today, and I think the Patriots will not find the end-zone in this game, and their defense will limit a Kansas City offense that is not nearly as good as we have seen in recent years. Backed by a situation that is 109-76 I will make the play under the total.
12-16-23	Vikings v. Bengals UNDER 41	Top	24-27	Loss	-110	3 h 24 m	Show
I wrote a lot about the advantages in this game, and it also fits a total situation that is 40-9-3 to the under. Make the play under the total.
12-02-23	Louisville v. Florida State UNDER 48.5	Top	6-16	Win	100	84 h 26 m	Show
I am sorry that there are no write ups this week, as I am traveling. The play is on the UNDER
12-02-23	Michigan v. Iowa UNDER 35.5	Top	26-0	Win	100	84 h 13 m	Show
I am sorry that there are no write ups this week, as I am traveling. The play is on the UNDER
11-26-23	Bills v. Eagles OVER 48	Top	34-37	Win	100	9 h 15 m	Show
The Philadelphia Eagles are in a great situation for this game to go over the total. The Eagles are 41-9 ATS to the over following a game where they scored fewer than 23 points as a dog. Make the play over the total.
11-26-23	Browns v. Broncos UNDER 36.5	Top	12-29	Loss	-110	9 h 35 m	Show
One thing that history shows is when an NFL team has played at least 4 straight games that have gone under the total, the odds-makers compensate the total, and quite often the adjustment ahead of the anticipated public jumping on the bandwagon, turns the line in favor of the other direction which is over the total, especially when it is a below average total. A team off 4 straight games playing under the total that has a season long scoring margin of -4 points or more (Denver), and playing to a low total from 34 to 41 are 71-39-2 ATS to the over. Make the play over the total.
11-26-23	Patriots v. Giants UNDER 34	Top	7-10	Win	100	5 h 14 m	Show
The New England Patriots certainly have offensive issues as they have averaged 14.1ppg on the season. The Patriots have scored 17 or fewer points in 8 of their last 9 games, so they have been consistently bad. The Giants put up 31 points last week, and that number is very deceiving. The Giants were held to 292 total yards and did their scoring because the Washington Commanders turned the ball over 6 times. The Giants in their previous 8 games averaged fewer than 11ppg. Coach Belichick has seen his team play 10-0 ATS to the under when failing to cover in 6 or 7 of their last 8 games. The Giants over the past 3 seasons are 12-1 ATS to the under as a home dog. The Giants have a long history of playing under vs. a team with a losing record as they are 106-78 ATS to the under. I like the under in this one.
11-25-23	Virginia Tech v. Virginia OVER 52.5	Top	55-17	Win	100	10 h 33 m	Show
Virginia Tech has not fared well offensively vs. the opponents on their schedule with a strong defense (Louisville 3, and Rutgers 16). They have however scored well when facing most other defenses. The Hokies otherwise average around 30ppg. Virginia is giving up 32ppg so I see the Hokies moving the ball well here. Virginia has an improved offense. The Cavs averaged just 21.4ppg through their first 5 games, but over their last 6 have averaged 26ppg. This game looks like it should be in the high 50s, and the game applies to a 177-108 ATS situation to the over as well. Make the play over the total.
11-25-23	Miami-OH v. Ball State UNDER 35.5	Top	17-15	Win	100	6 h 54 m	Show
Miami, O. is a very strong defense for a MAC team as they have allowed just 16.5ppg on the season. The Red Hawks are allowing just 10ppg in MAC games. Ball St. allowed 40 points or more in 4 of their first 5 games but in their last 5 games they have allowed less than 15ppg. Neither of these teams have much of an offense and they tend to just run the ball and play field position. Make the play under the total.
11-23-23	Ole Miss v. Mississippi State UNDER 55.5	Top	17-7	Win	100	53 h 31 m	Show
This Egg Bowl rivalry goes back a long way. Ole Miss comes into this game t 9-2 on the season and the 2 losses were to top 10 teams in Georgia, and Alabama. The defense looks worse than it actually is because they have faced Alabama,LSU, and Georgia. They allowed 1,605 yards in those 3 games. Otherwise the defense has been slightly above average. Miss St. has a brutal offense, and before facing a cupcake last week in Southern Miss, the Bulldogs scored just 33 points in 4 SEC games. Overall they have averaged 14.8ppg in 7 SEC contests, and against a high powered offense in Ole Miss, that is not going to get it done. This series is tied 17-17 over the last 34 years. I don't like a double-digit road favorite in a big rivalry match up. I'm more robust on the total, which is currently in the mid-50s. The last 34 meetings these teams have combined to score over 55 total points just 7 times!The last 27 meetings has produced 20 games under the total. Ole Miss is also 18-5 ATS to the under if they allowed 3 or fewer points in first half of their last game. Make the play under the total.
11-11-23	Florida v. LSU OVER 67	Top	35-52	Win	100	12 h 0 m	Show
LSU has the best offense in NCAA Football this season by a significant margin. The Tigers are averaging 45.2ppg on the season and should have no trouble reaching or exceeding that number vs a Florida defense that has allowed better than 40ppg in their last 3 contests, and this is the best offense they will see all season. Florida has an above average offense that will put up a lot of points vs an LSU defense that is significantly below average. The LSU schedule shows they have hung up huge numbers to a schedule of teams with above average defenses, so there is no limit on what their offense can do vs Florida. This game also fits a situation that is 136-77 ATS to the over as well. Make the play OVER the total, my NCAAF Total of the year.
11-11-23	Tulsa v. Tulane UNDER 53.5	Top	22-24	Win	100	4 h 8 m	Show
Tulane has a few games left, but the 20 wins they have achieved since the start of last season are the most in Tulane football history over a 2 consecutive year period. Last year the Green Wave averaged 36ppg, but the offense is not as good this season, as they average just 28.7ppg. Moreover, the defense is improved from allowing 22.2ppg a year ago to 19.3ppg this season. The Tulsa offense is very bad, and in their 3 games vs the top 3 defenses on their schedule they produced an average of 12.3ppg. I expect they get less than that in this game. Tulane has been 7-1 to the under in its last 8 games and has not exceeded 37 points in any game all season. There is plenty of margin for this game to come up shy of the total, and the play is on the UNDER.
11-08-23	Akron v. Miami-OH UNDER 40.5	Top	0-19	Win	100	10 h 13 m	Show
The Akron football program has really struggled, especially over the last 5 years where they are a woeful 7-44 SU. Any chance they had at moving the needle this season ended when QB D.J. Irons went down with an ACL injury.They are left with left with Jeff Undercuffler. This team could run the ball pretty good because of Irons, but now they don't even have a running game, let alone being down to a 2nd string QB. The defense has held its own as the Zips allow just 344 yards per game. Miami, Ohio lost star Jeff Gabbert, and his backup Aveon Smith has been dreadful. Miami is going to put the ball on the ground, and let their strong defense take the game over. I don't see a lot of points here, and will make the play under the total.
11-05-23	Commanders v. Patriots OVER 40.5	Top	20-17	Loss	-110	68 h 44 m	Show
The Washington Commanders turned sellers and traded their bookend defensive ends Chase Young, and Montez Sweat. They also lost safety Darrick Forrest in week 5. This defense is already suspect having allowed 33 or more points 5 times this season already. New England scored 52 points over a 5 week period, but has scored 46 in their last 2. I think Washington lost most of their talent on the defensive end, and I can see significant points here. Rivera's teams have played over to a 30-16 ATS mark on turf, and Washington is 46-28 ATS to the over after scoring 30 or more points their last game. Make the play on the OVER.
10-28-23	East Carolina v. UTSA UNDER 48.5	Top	27-41	Loss	-110	22 h 14 m	Show
East Carolina has one of the worst offenses in all of the FBS. The Pirates have averaged just 13ppg vs FBS teams. UTSA has been a solid under team all season, and both teams have combined for a 10-4 mark to the under on the season. That just supports my best total system that generally wins a lot of games. Make the play under the total.
10-22-23	Cardinals v. Seahawks UNDER 44.5	Top	10-20	Win	100	8 h 10 m	Show
This game fits a long term situation that has resulted in a 217-143-4 ATS situation, and the play is on the under.
10-22-23	Raiders v. Bears UNDER 37.5	Top	12-30	Loss	-106	6 h 18 m	Show
The Chicago Bears are just 1-5 on the season, and about the only good part of that is if the draft was today they would have the first and second picks in the draft. That won't help their offense today. The Bears lost QB Justin Fields and Tyson Bagent will get the start. Chicago has another problem. They are going to want to run more, but Justin Fields was the reason they ran the ball above average, which won't be the case today. The Vegas offense has struggled along with QB Jimmy Garoppolo. Garoppolo has thrown just 7 TD passes with 8 INT's on the season. Las Vegas has averaged just 16ppg in his 5 starts. The Raiders offense is full of check downs and have trouble getting the ball downfield leaving behind a frustrated Davante Adams. This game is supported by a 79-41 ATS. Make the play on the UNDER.
10-21-23	Penn State v. Ohio State UNDER 46	Top	12-20	Win	100	19 h 47 m	Show
This game fits one of my 2 best total situations that has been off the charts good. It has been 104-33-12 ATS to the under. I play this one blind when it comes up because it is very strong. Make the play UNDER the total.
10-15-23	Giants v. Bills UNDER 44	Top	9-14	Win	100	12 h 10 m	Show
The New York Giants had a really good season last year, but everything seemed to work out in their favor. The opposite has been true this season. The Giants enter Sunday Night vs. the Bills with an offense that has scored 16 or fewer points in all 4 losses. The Giants have 18 players on the injury report including QB Daniel Jones who has been ruled out. Jones has been the offense for the Giants scrambling for his life. Tyrod Taylor will get the start for New York. The Buffalo offense is going to have to do all the heavy lifting on the scoreboard, but I doubt the motivation will be there in a lopsided game. The Giants have surrendered 30 sacks already which is the most by any team in the NFL through 5 games ever! This game fits a total situation that is 107-62 ATS, and I agree. Make the play under the total.
10-14-23	Ohio v. Northern Illinois UNDER 45	Top	13-23	Win	100	22 h 48 m	Show
The Ohio, U. Bobcats lost their opener at San Diego St. 20-13. They have since beaten Iowa St. holding them to 7 points, and has not allowed any team to score more than 17 points in any of their last 5. This game is capping significantly under, and there is also bad weather for this game, and heavy winds and rains are going to limit kicking and the passing game. Both teams are good against the run and neither runs the ball that well. Make the play under the total.
10-01-23	Broncos v. Bears OVER 46.5	Top	31-28	Win	100	5 h 28 m	Show
As you can see from my side write up I am high on both offenses match ups in this game as well as a 189-122 ATS total situation. Make the play over the total.
09-30-23	Kansas v. Texas UNDER 61.5	Top	14-40	Win	100	69 h 20 m	Show
The Texas Longhorns have started 4-0 and they have been good on both sides of the ball. The Longhorns however are averaging just 35ppg, and the defense has been top shelf. Texas is allowing 12.5ppg on the season. overall their games have averaged just 47.5 total points per game. Kansas is also off to a 4-0 start. Kansas has been pretty good defensively allowing 24ppg. Kansas will limit the number of Texas possessions as the Jayhawks run a very slow offense that while they have possession yields 2 plays per minute. Kansas has had 3 games vs FBS opponents and the only game where more than 60 points were scored was their last game, but that game had 2 defensive TDs, so it actually would have been the lowest scoring game of the 3, so I think there is a spike in the total that does not belong. This game also fits a total situation that is 99-48 ATS. Make the play UNDER the total.
09-30-23	Georgia v. Auburn UNDER 45.5	Top	27-20	Loss	-110	21 h 21 m	Show
This game fits one of my strongest total situations that is 169-91 ATS. Make the play on the UNDER.
09-28-23	Jacksonville State v. Sam Houston State UNDER 36.5	Top	35-28	Loss	-110	2 h 30 m	Show
This could be a very sleepy game, without a lot of action at least beyond the goal line. Jacksonville St. is a healthy 3-1 to start the season, but in their 3 games vs FBS opponents they have scored 18ppg. Outside of the best offense they have seen in Coastal Carolina, they have held their other 3 opponents to just 5.7ppg. Those numbers may turn out to go down after this game as Sam Houston St. has scored 10 total points in 3 games. They are averaging 148 yards per game of total offense. Both offenses are significantly below average while both defenses are significantly above average. I don't see a lot of ball movement here. Make the play under the total.
09-24-23	Bears v. Chiefs UNDER 48	Top	10-41	Loss	-110	22 h 51 m	Show
This is strictly a turnover play that works against the Bears. The situation is exclusive to the Bears and is a total situation that is 33-2 ATS. Make the play UNDER the total.
09-23-23	Oklahoma v. Cincinnati OVER 56	Top	20-6	Loss	-110	18 h 13 m	Show
The Cincinnati defense has a reputation and while they are allowing fewer than 22ppg, the number show a different story. The defense allows more yards per ply that the average of their schedule of opponents so far. Oklahoma once again has a huge offense that is averaging nearly 56ppg, and they will move the ball effectively against Cincinnati. The offense is above average and they will move the ball vs. Oklahoma as well. This total has dropped 3/3.5 points from the opener and I think the value is building with the mover for a higher scoring games. This game also fits a total situation that is 138-87 ATS. Make the play over the total.
09-17-23	Giants v. Cardinals UNDER 40	Top	31-28	Loss	-113	20 h 25 m	Show
This game fits a situation that is 41-100 ATS but there are double posting in some stances. Overall when a home team is in this situation the total has gone 25-55-5 O/U. Make the play on the under.
09-17-23	Colts v. Texans UNDER 39.5	Top	31-20	Loss	-110	17 h 21 m	Show
This game fits a situation that is 41-100 ATS but there are double posting in some stances. Overall when a home team is in this situation the total has gone 25-55-5 O/U. Make the play on the under.
09-16-23	Hawaii v. Oregon UNDER 68.5	Top	10-55	Win	100	26 h 20 m	Show
In addition to a 5.2 difference I get on this total for line value, this game also fits a total situation which is 109-68 ATS. Make the play under the total.
09-16-23	San Diego State v. Oregon State UNDER 48.5	Top	9-26	Win	100	45 h 9 m	Show
Oregon St. has opened the season at 2-0 with the scoring margin in the 2 games at 73. This gives bettors a false impression of their level of play as they played a pair of horrible teams. I think there will be a big difference against San Diego St. The Aztecs since the start of the 2015 season has allowed fewer than 20 points per game. That cover 105 games. I don't think we will see big numbers from Oregon St. here. San Diego QB Jalen Mayden has not been the same this season. He is working in a new offense, and his numbers are much worse than a year ago. I think there is a good chance the San Diego St. defense holds down the Beavers as they continue to struggle to score themselves. Make the play under the total.
09-10-23	Dolphins v. Chargers OVER 51	Top	36-34	Win	100	21 h 23 m	Show
This game fits a situation that has gone over the total to a record of 126-85 ATS and the play is on the OVER.
09-10-23	Jaguars v. Colts OVER 45.5	Top	31-21	Win	100	18 h 7 m	Show
This game total fits a situation that has gone 74-41 ATS and the play is on the OVER.
09-09-23	Cincinnati v. Pittsburgh UNDER 45.5	Top	27-21	Loss	-110	24 h 21 m	Show
This is mostly predicated on my 2nd strongest totals situation for college football. It is 46-8 ATS to the under. Make the play under the total.
09-09-23	Texas A&M v. Miami-FL UNDER 51	Top	33-48	Loss	-110	22 h 52 m	Show
This is mostly predicated on my 2nd strongest totals situation for college football. It is 46-8 ATS to the under. Make the play under the total.
09-02-23	Middle Tennessee State v. Alabama UNDER 52	Top	7-56	Loss	-109	35 h 9 m	Show
G.J. Kinne will take over the program at Texas St. this season. He favors an uptempo offense but does he have the tools to run it? Transfer quarterbacks Malik Hornsby (Arkansas) and TJ Finley (Auburn), are going to both probably get some time, but neither has a track record of success when they have been on the field, and I don`t see this offense clicking, at least early. Baylor doesn`t have more than an average offense. Baylor has a better running game than a passing attack and I think they put the ball on the ground a lot here, but it will be challenging early with an offensive line that has little experience. I don`t see a lot of explosiveness on either side, and the defenses will both be better than the offenses they are facing. When that is the case and the total is on the high side in a season opener a lower-scoring game is probable. Make the play under the total.
09-02-23	Texas State v. Baylor UNDER 60.5	Top	42-31	Loss	-110	35 h 40 m	Show
G.J. Kinne will take over the program at Texas St. this season. He favors an uptempo offense but does he have the tools to run it? Transfer quarterbacks Malik Hornsby (Arkansas) and TJ Finley (Auburn), are going to both probably get some time, but neither has a track record of success when they have been on the field, and I don`t see this offense clicking, at least early. Baylor doesn`t have more than an average offense. Baylor has a better running game than a passing attack and I think they put the ball on the ground a lot here, but it will be challenging early with an offensive line that has little experience. I don`t see a lot of explosiveness on either side, and the defenses will both be better than the offenses they are facing. When that is the case and the total is on the high side in a season opener a lower-scoring game is probable. Make the play under the total.
04-23-23	Nuggets v. Wolves OVER 224.5	Top	108-114	Loss	-110	13 h 13 m	Show
This game fits a total situation that is 114-60-4 ATS and the play is on the over.
04-12-23	Thunder v. Pelicans UNDER 227	Top	123-118	Loss	-110	12 h 11 m	Show
NBA games where there is a team that is a 2 or more point dog and is off a win in a game that went under the total are 202-158-4 ATS. When the last game was not a playoff game, but this one is the under is 21-4-1 ATS since April 17 of 2010! Make the play under the total.
04-12-23	Bulls v. Raptors UNDER 213.5	Top	109-105	Loss	-110	10 h 50 m	Show
NBA games where there is a team that is a 2 or more point dog and is off a win in a game that went under the total are 202-158-4 ATS. When the last game was not a playoff game, but this one is the under is 21-4-1 ATS since April 17 of 2010! Make the play under the total.
03-05-23	McNeese State v. Tex A&M Commerce UNDER 137	Top	79-78	Loss	-110	9 h 16 m	Show
This game fits a situation that is 114-77 ATS and the play is under the total
03-05-23	Campbell v. North Carolina-Asheville UNDER 135	Top	73-77	Loss	-110	4 h 17 m	Show
This gam fits a situation that is 166-97 ATS to the under. Make the play under the total.
01-29-23	Bengals v. Chiefs UNDER 48.5	Top	20-23	Win	100	24 h 8 m	Show
Cincinnati heads to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs. The weather is not going to be ideal for passing downfield. The temperature will be in the low 20s to start the game and down to 15-18 by the end of the game, and the windchill will be hovering around 0, with wind gusts in the 20s. The big question will be the mobility of Patrick Mahomes as he deals with a high ankle sprain sustained last week. That is the type of injury that takes more than a week to heal, so I will assume Mahomes is less than 100%. The Bengals offensive line is in shambles but did hold up against Buffalo, and I think Kansas City is going to try and test it with pressure. This has the look of more running than one would think and the Chiefs have run for 138 yards or more in each of the last 3 vs Kansas City, and with a less than healthy Mahomes, they may run even more. Almost all bets I see from questionable handicappers are on the over. I am in the other camp and will make the play on the under.
01-29-23	49ers v. Eagles UNDER 46	Top	7-31	Win	100	20 h 29 m	Show
The San Francisco 49ers will head to Philadelphia to take on the Eagles. It should be ideal weather conditions with a high of 51 degrees and light winds, and just a slight chance for a shower or two. San Francisco QB Brock Purdy has played just a couple games on the road, and both opponents were rather weak. He will be facing the best defense he has in his brief career, one that has sacked the QB 70 times on the season. Jalen Hurts is going to be facing a tough defense in San Francisco, and both defenses will have the advantage when they are on the field. I think this is going to be a game of field position, and TD's are going to hard to come by. This game also fits a total situation that is 38-16 ATS. I will make the play under the total.
01-28-23	Lakers v. Celtics UNDER 234.5	Top	121-125	Loss	-110	11 h 32 m	Show
The scoring in the NBA has sky rocketed. The issue has been at the top of this increased line pressure by the books that have now priced games way too high. When an NBA team is at home to a posted total of 235 or higher the under has been 50-29-1 ATS this year. Make the play under the total.
01-28-23	Suns v. Spurs OVER 231	Top	128-118	Win	100	10 h 53 m	Show
The San Antonio Spurs have played to a higher percentage of games that have topped the total in the NBA this season. They are currently 29-19-1 ATS to the over this season. They have increased the pace over their last 24 games where they are 19-5 ATS to the over. (19-3 ATS if they have been posted at +2 or higher). Make the play over the total.
01-28-23	Nuggets v. 76ers UNDER 232	Top	119-126	Loss	-110	5 h 4 m	Show
The scoring in the NBA has sky rocketed. The issue has been at the top of this increased line pressure by the books that have now priced games way too high. When an NBA team is at home to a posted total of 235 or higher the under has been 50-29-1 ATS this year. Make the play under the total.
01-27-23	Grizzlies v. Wolves UNDER 239	Top	100-111	Win	100	11 h 56 m	Show
This game fits a total situation that is 71-31-6 ATS and the play is under the total.
01-27-23	Bucks v. Pacers UNDER 239	Top	141-131	Loss	-110	10 h 27 m	Show
A team that has been well rested and has played just 4 games in their last 10 days to a high total of 230 or more tend to be fresh and play defense. These teams are 111-49 ATS to the under, and applies to the Bucks tonight. Make the play on the under.
01-26-23	Montana v. CS Sacramento OVER 127	Top	48-67	Loss	-110	13 h 42 m	Show
This game fits a total situation that is 40-9 ATS and the play is on the over.
01-26-23	Pistons v. Nets UNDER 233	Top	130-122	Loss	-110	11 h 40 m	Show
This game fits a total situation that is 55-29 ATS and the play is on the under.
01-25-23	Spurs v. Lakers UNDER 244.5	Top	104-113	Win	100	13 h 15 m	Show
This game fits a total situation that is 54-29 ATS. The play is under the total.
01-25-23	Indiana v. Minnesota OVER 136.5	Top	61-57	Loss	-110	11 h 15 m	Show
This game fits a situation that is 51-15 ATS and the play is on over the total.
01-25-23	Houston v. UCF OVER 127.5	Top	82-71	Win	100	9 h 17 m	Show
This game fits a situation that is 73-28 ATS and the play is on over the total.
01-24-23	Wizards v. Mavs OVER 224.5	Top	127-126	Win	100	12 h 50 m	Show
Since the scoring explosion hit the NBA, it has generated a new situation for game totals. This has been 91-46-4 ATS and the play in this game is over the total.
01-22-23	Cowboys v. 49ers OVER 46.5	Top	12-19	Loss	-110	29 h 6 m	Show
The 49ers played one team this season that has the offensive weapons that Dallas does, and that was against Kansas City. They proceeded to allow 44 points in that game. The Niners have averaged over 30ppg since Brock Purdy became the QB. I can see this game getting into the 50s. A team playing to a total of 42 to 49.5 and off of 2 consecutive games played under the total, and both teams have a season to date scoring margin of 7 points or more in the playoffs are 11-0 ATS to the over since 2007! Make the play on the over.
01-21-23	Jaguars v. Chiefs OVER 52.5	Top	20-27	Loss	-110	8 h 12 m	Show
Since the start of the 2019 season the Chiefs have played 7 home playoff games, where they have averaged 36ppg. These games have averaged 62ppg by both teams. The 2 games they were favored by more than 8 points they averaged 46.5ppg. More importantly, the Chiefs fit a strong situation that has been 22-2 ATS in the playoffs. The play is over the total.
01-17-23	76ers v. Clippers OVER 223	Top	120-110	Win	100	13 h 37 m	Show
This game fits a total situation that is 150-85-13 ATS, and the play is over the total.
01-17-23	Blazers v. Nuggets OVER 237	Top	113-122	Loss	-110	12 h 48 m	Show
This game fits a total situation that is 150-85-13 ATS, and the play is over the total.
01-15-23	Ravens v. Bengals UNDER 40.5	Top	17-24	Loss	-110	12 h 35 m	Show
The Baltimore Ravens will once again give it a go without Lamar Jackson. The decision on QB for Baltimore is still a mystery. Tyler Huntley is said to be a game time decision, and he hasn't exactly moved the offense even when he was healthy. If he can't go then Anthony Brown will make his second straight start. Baltimore is averaging 12.5ppg in their last 5 games. The Ravens do have their defensive swagger on. Through 8 weeks the Ravens were allowing 22.9ppg but since then have allowed 14.7ppg from week 9 out. They have held the Bengal offense to 22ppg in the 2 meetings. The Ravens only true chance of winning this game is going to play their best defensive game of the season because the offense is just horrible without Jackson. Make the play under the total.
01-14-23	Hawks v. Raptors OVER 232.5	Top	114-103	Loss	-113	10 h 38 m	Show
This game fits a very strong total situation that is 150-84-13 ATS. Make the play on over the total.
01-14-23	Celtics v. Hornets OVER 231.5	Top	122-106	Loss	-115	9 h 12 m	Show
This game fits a very strong total situation that is 73-28-2 ATS. Make the play over the total.
01-14-23	Seahawks v. 49ers UNDER 42.5	Top	23-41	Loss	-110	8 h 43 m	Show
It has been raining all week in the Bay Area. The field has likely been covered, but heavy rain is forecast during the game. Additionally a sustained wind of 20MPH with gusts over 30 are going to make passing and kicking a challenge. I like the under in this one.
01-13-23	Rockets v. Kings OVER 237.5	Top	114-139	Win	100	9 h 5 m	Show
This is a blind situation play that is backed by a 72-28-2 ATS situation that is active tonight. Make the play on the over.
01-13-23	Warriors v. Spurs UNDER 244.5	Top	144-113	Loss	-110	7 h 35 m	Show
This is a blind situation play that is backed by a 53-25 ATS situation that is active tonight. Make the play on the under.
01-11-23	Bucks v. Hawks OVER 236	Top	114-105	Loss	-110	10 h 28 m	Show
Somewhere along the way the Milwaukee Bucks have stopped playing defense. The Bucks head to Atlanta at 26-14, but jut 7-7 in their last 14 games where they have allowed 118ppg. They have become an over the total team with 6 of their last 8 to a total of 227.5 or more have eclipsed the total. The Hawks like to play fast and their last 15 games have seen them top the total in 10 of them. They are allowing 116.5ppg. (5-1 ATS to the over when the total is 229.5 or more). This game also fits a very strong over situation that is 174-101-6 ATS. Make the play over the total.
01-10-23	Cavs v. Jazz OVER 226.5	Top	114-116	Win	100	13 h 21 m	Show
This game fits a situation that has 2 long-term winning probabilities. One is 109-57-4 ATS and the other is 126-70-4 ATS. Make the play over the total.
01-08-23	Cowboys v. Commanders UNDER 40	Top	6-26	Win	100	8 h 2 m	Show
This game fits a last game of the season total situation which is 78-31 ATS. Make the play on the under.
01-08-23	Cardinals v. 49ers UNDER 39.5	Top	13-38	Loss	-110	8 h 0 m	Show
This game fits a last game of the season total situation which is 78-31 ATS. Make the play on the under.
01-08-23	Jets v. Dolphins UNDER 37	Top	6-11	Win	100	5 h 38 m	Show
This game fits a last game of the season total situation which is 78-31 ATS. Make the play on the under.
01-04-23	Nets v. Bulls OVER 236	Top	112-121	Loss	-110	11 h 43 m	Show
This game fits a total situation which is 57-26 ATS and the play is on the over
01-04-23	Spurs v. Knicks OVER 226.5	Top	114-117	Win	100	10 h 15 m	Show
This game fits a total situation which is 57-26 ATS and the play is on the over
01-02-23	Purdue v. LSU UNDER 55	Top	7-63	Loss	-110	4 h 25 m	Show
Purdue has taken a lot of opt-out hits. They will be without their QB, TE, and a WR, as well as a couple more starters. This game is more about a strong January Bowl total situation that is 17-2 ATS. Make the play under the total.
01-02-23	Mississippi State v. Illinois UNDER 46	Top	19-10	Win	100	3 h 15 m	Show
Both of these teams were better defensively than they are offensively, and the balance of the opt outs seem to enhance that. The bigger reason is a bowl total situation that is 56-19 ATS. Make the play under the total.
01-01-23	49ers v. Raiders UNDER 42.5	Top	37-34	Loss	-108	8 h 36 m	Show
The Raiders have given up on Derek Carr, and apparently will replace a lot of starters in this game and looking ahead to 2023-24. Can't see them moving the ball much here, and these teams fit into a strong 166-108 ATS situation. Make the play under the total.
12-31-22	Kansas State v. Alabama UNDER 57	Top	20-45	Loss	-110	4 h 52 m	Show
This game fits a Bowl situation that plays under on certain teams that are averaging over 40 points per game, and it is 26-5 ATS. Make the play under the total.
12-30-22	Clemson v. Tennessee UNDER 63.5	Top	14-31	Win	100	32 h 13 m	Show
My top Bowl total situation which is 36-7 ATS is active for this game, and the play is under the total.
12-30-22	Wyoming v. Ohio UNDER 42	Top	27-30	Loss	-110	29 h 38 m	Show
These teams both have significant opt outs on offense, and when you combine that with a Bowl total situation that is a rather potent 47-16 ATS, my play in this one is on the under.
12-30-22	Maryland v. NC State UNDER 46.5	Top	16-12	Win	100	26 h 31 m	Show
Maryland is down a lot of offensive players in this game, and have 3 significant WR's out, as well as their TE. These players have combined for 118 catches and over 1,400 yards, with 9 TDs. NC State is down to a 4th string QB, mising a WR, their starting center, and offensive coordinator. NC Sate has top defenders in tack, as does Maryland. This game will likely feature a lot of running. This game also fits a bowl total situation that is 74-49 ATS. Make the play under the total.
12-28-22	Ole Miss v. Texas Tech OVER 71.5	Top	25-42	Loss	-110	12 h 39 m	Show
December favorites with a total of 66.5 points or higher and not favored by 12 or more points are 33-16 ATS to the over. Make the play over the total.
12-28-22	Magic v. Pistons OVER 229.5	Top	101-121	Loss	-110	9 h 13 m	Show
This game fits a situation that is 217-164-16 ATS including a 20-5 ATS run in the last 25 occurrences. Make the play over the total.
12-27-22	Oklahoma State v. Wisconsin UNDER 45	Top	17-24	Win	100	14 h 39 m	Show
Oklahoma St. has averaged 13.6ppg in their last 5 games, while Wisconsin is averaging 16ppg in their last 4. Both teams have backup QB's starting, and this game fits a bowl situation that is 66-43 ATS to the under. Mke the play on the under.
12-27-22	76ers v. Wizards OVER 224.5	Top	111-116	Win	100	10 h 47 m	Show
This game fits a pair of very strong total situations. One is 129-64- ATS, and the other is 269-180-21 ATS. Make the play on the over.
12-26-22	Nets v. Cavs OVER 221	Top	125-117	Win	100	10 h 7 m	Show
When an NBA team is off of 2 straight wins by 15 or more points and facing a team off a 10 or more point loss the over is 55-26 ATS (19-3 ATS lately). Make the play over the total.
12-25-22	Broncos v. Rams UNDER 37	Top	14-51	Loss	-110	32 h 0 m	Show
This game fits my strongest total situation which is 113-48 ATS. Make the play on the under.
12-24-22	Bills v. Bears UNDER 40.5	Top	35-13	Loss	-110	4 h 21 m	Show
This game will be determined in large part on the weather. The game time temperature will be around 5 degrees, with a forecast high of 10. The wins will be gusting upward to 35 MPH, and the wind chill will be -20 or lower at times. This will likely be a top 10 worst weather game in NFL history in terms of wind and cold that both alter scoring negatively. Make the play on the under.

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