Sports Picks & Predictions
NBA Archive | |||||||
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
06-16-22 | Warriors +4 v. Celtics | Top | 103-90 | Win | 100 | 61 h 48 m | Show |
I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE. The Celtics have had their chances. They could easily be leading this series. They haven't taken advantage though. Now, it's too late. The well-coached veteran Warrior team knows they have the Celtics on the ropes. They smell the blood in the water and they absolutely want to close the deal. They're 5-1 under Kerr when up 3-2 in a series. Curry couldn't hit anything last game and the Warriors still won by double-digits. Naturally, he's going to be better in this one. Former #1 pick Wiggins has come into his own in these playoffs and that's made a huge difference. Not only does he score but he dominates the boards. Green and Poole are both capable of making a difference. Meanwhile, Klay Thompson has started to find his groove. Speaking of Klay, he tends to dominate in Game 6 situations. In 12 career Game 6's, he's averaging 20.7 points per game while connecting on 49.5% of his 3-point shots. The Warriors are 11-5 SU when playing with two day's rest in between games and they're 29-13 SU when off a double-digit win. While I expect them to improve on those stats, I'm happy to grab the points. |
|||||||
06-13-22 | Celtics v. Warriors -3.5 | Top | 94-104 | Win | 100 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
I'm playing on GSW. The zig-zag theory has been alive and well in this series thus far; no team has won two in a row. However, I expect that to change in Monday's pivotal Game 5 matchup. Since relinquishing homecourt advantage with a Game 1 loss, the Warriors have done what they needed to do. They bounced back with a Game 2 win and they got the split in the two games in Boston. Homecourt advantage once again belongs to them and they're not about to let it slip away again. While the Celtics are 31-21 on the road, the Warriors are 41-11 at home. They score more points here than Boston does on the road and they also allow less. Last time on this floor, also playing with two day's rest in between games, the Warriors won 107-88. I'm expecting another win and cover. |
|||||||
06-05-22 | Celtics v. Warriors -4 | Top | 88-107 | Win | 100 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE. Impressive comeback win for the Celtcs in Game 1. I'm not writing off the Warriors yet though. Battle-tested, they've been here before. They know what needs to be done. They're 14-7 ATS over the years, when trailing in a series. Each of the Warriors' recent losses has seen them respond with a big win. They're still 40-11 on this floor. With the Celtics only 4-7-1 ATS the past dozen times that they were off an upset victory, I say the Warriors bounce back with the win and cover. |
|||||||
05-29-22 | Celtics v. Heat +2.5 | Top | 100-96 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
I'm playing on MIAMI. Needless to say, this has been a crazy series. The Celtics have arguably looked more impressive in their three wins than the Heat have in theirs. Largely as a result, we're getting the #1 seed as an underdog, on its home floor. I feel that's providing us with excellent value. Keep in mind that the Heat were favored by four points, for Game 1 here. That's a big difference. We saw the willpower of Butler and co. It would have been easy to roll over in Game 6. They didn't. The Heat are 20-8 ATS as underdogs and they're 11-5 ATS (12-4 SU) when coming off a SU win, after having been listed as underdogs. They're 36-14 at home, compared to Boston's 29-20 on the road. Grab the points but expect the "outright win." |
|||||||
05-27-22 | Heat +9 v. Celtics | Top | 111-103 | Win | 100 | 16 h 51 m | Show |
I'm playing on MIAMI. It's true that the Celtics have looked very good in their three victories. The #1 seed isn't going to down without a fight though. The Heat have already show that they can win here. They won Game 3 by a score of 109-103. They're still 20-11-1 ATS their last 32 in the revenge role and 12-6 ATS when off a double-digit loss. Boston's previous big wins have led to some extra line value. Keep in mind that we're working with more points now than at anytime in the series. Speaking of points, note that Miami is 19-8-1 ATS its last 28, in the underdog role. The last time that the Heat were off b2b losses, they responded by winning their next game by 35 points. I'm not expecting another 35-point blowout tonight but I AM expecting them to bounce back with their best effort, en route to AT LEAST the 'cover.' |
|||||||
05-26-22 | Mavs v. Warriors -6.5 | Top | 110-120 | Win | 100 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
I'm playing on GSW. The Warriors missed their chance to close things out in four games, at Dallas. Back home, don't expect them to let it happen again. Give the Mavs credit for fighting to avoid the sweep. They still know the series is over though. They won't have the will to fight back this time. It's hard to beat Golden State twice in a row. The well-coached Warriors are a dominant 23-11 ATS (28-6 SU) their last 34, when playing with 'revenge.' They responded to each of their previous three playoff losses with a victory. They won those three games by an average of 16 points. The Warriors have obviously been here before. Their experience factor can't be overlooked. Neither can homecourt. The Warriors won the two games here by 34 combined points. Look for the Warriors to improve to 31-19 ATS (40-10 SU) their last 50 games here. |
|||||||
05-25-22 | Celtics v. Heat +2.5 | Top | 93-80 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
I'm playing on MIAMI. As you've seen, this has been a funny kind of a series. The games haven't really been close. One game, Miami looks dominant and the next game, Boston does. While I do expect the Heat to win outright, I won't be surprised if we finally see a "close" one. That makes getting an extra bucket to work with a nice luxury. Again, I don't think we'll need those points though. The Celtics were great defensively last game. They're just 8-13 SU the past 21 times that they allowed 90 or fewer points in their previous game though. The Heat, 2-0 ATS when tied in a series, are 20-10 ATS the past 30 times that they were playing with 'revenge' and 12-5 ATS the past 17 times that they were off a double-digit loss. They're also 12-7 ATS (15-4 SU!) the past 19 times that they failed to score 100 or more points in their previous game. Expect them to bounce back and improve on those stats this evening. |
|||||||
05-22-22 | Warriors v. Mavs -2.5 | Top | 109-100 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 57 m | Show |
I'm playing on DALLAS. The Mavericks have shown that they should not be counted out. Down 0-2 to the Suns, they returned home and won Game 3 by a 103-94 score. They also won Game 3 in the Jazz series, winning by eight as +8.5 point underdogs. They're 6-3 SU/ATS the past nine times that they were trailing in a series. The Warriors aren't as tough on the road. They're 19-27 ATS (22-24 SU) in road games. Favored for the first time in the series, note that the Mavs are 30-19-2 ATS and 41-10 SU when listed as favorites. Expect them to bounce back and improve on those stats here. |
|||||||
05-18-22 | Mavs v. Warriors -4.5 | Top | 87-112 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
I'm playing on GSW. The Mavs were certainly impressive in disposing of Phoenix. I really like how this one sets up for the Warriors though. Not only are they playing at home but they've got the advantage of playing with extra rest. At this time of the year, for this team, I believe that will work in their favor. Note that the Warriors are 6-3 ATS (8-1 SU) when playing with three or more day's rest in between games. Last time in that situation, they won by 30. While the Mavs won the most recent meeting, the Warriors are a dominant 22-11 ATS (27-6 SU) their last 33 in the revenge role. Going back further finds the at 69-45 ATS when playing with revenge. During that span, the Mavs are 19-24 when coming off an upset victory. Warriors roll. |
|||||||
05-17-22 | Celtics v. Heat -1.5 | Top | 107-118 | Win | 100 | 24 h 38 m | Show |
I'm playing on MIAMI. Great job by the Celtics to knock off the defending champs. The Heat are a different beast though. They're more well rounded (not as one-dimensional) than the Bucks on offense and they're even stingier on defense. They allow just 103.9 ppg, 104.6 ppg overall. The Heat had the best homecourt record (and overall) in the East. Butler may not get the numbers that Giannis does but he continues to prove to be the ultimate competitor. While it still may not be enough time to get Lowry back, the extra rest between games also figures to favor Miami. The Heat are 4-0 SU/ATS the past four times that they played with three or more day's rest in between games, 11-4-1 ATS (13-3 SU) their last 16 in that situation. Fresher down the stretch, look for the Heat to grab Game 1, covering the small number along the way. |
|||||||
05-15-22 | Mavs v. Suns -6 | Top | 123-90 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 22 m | Show |
I'm playing on PHOENIX. While they failed to close things out in Dallas, this what the Suns worked so hard for during the regular season. The chance to play this game on their home floor. I like that the teams play with two day's rest in between game. Other than the first game, where they both had some rest before (Suns won and covered) each other game has had one day's worth of rest in between games. Therefore, it's worth noting that the Suns are 14-1 SU and 9-5-1 ATS the past 15 times that they played with two day's rest in between games. Even better, they're 17-4 ATS (18-3 SU) the past 21 times that they attempted to avenge an earlier loss. It's tough to beat this team twice in a row. Already 3-0 SU/ATS when tied in a series, expect the Suns to rise to the occasion with another big win and cover. |
|||||||
05-13-22 | Grizzlies v. Warriors -8 | Top | 96-110 | Win | 100 | 14 h 26 m | Show |
I'm playing on GSW. I lost with the Warriors last game but I'm coming right back with them tonight. Needless to say, the Warriors weren't happy with their play on Wednesday. They turned the ball over way too many times and just weren't themselves. They allowed 134 points, a whopping 77 in the first half. That was the most they allowed all season. The only previous time this season that they allowed more than 130 points was on Dec. 7th, when they gave up 131 at Denver. The next game, they returned home and bounced back with an efficient and dominant double-digit win over the Clippers. Angry with themselves and now more well aware than ever that they need to close the deal tonight, (and not risk going back to Memphis) I expect the Warriors to again bounce back with a huge effort. They're 21-11 ATS (26-6 SU) when playing with 'revenge' and I expect them to improve on those stats this evening. |
|||||||
05-12-22 | Suns -1.5 v. Mavs | Top | 86-113 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 11 m | Show |
I'm playing on PHOENIX. While everyone loves a Game 7, I don't see this series "going the distance." Rather, I believe the Suns will close things out tonight. As you're likely aware, the home team has won and covered every game in this series, thus far. So, it would be easy to make a case for the Mavs. Every game is unique though. I believe that the Suns "turned the corner" in the second half of the last game. That one was close at halftime but the Suns elevated their defense after the break. In fact, they would limit the Mavs to a mere 34 second half points. Remember, prior to losing Game 3 and 4, the Suns were a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS their last four visits here, 9-1 ATS (8-2 SU) their previous 10. So, they do indeed know how to win here. Booker, Paul and co. can smell the blood in the water. They know this is their chance. They know that if they get past here that every remaining potential opponent has shown vulnerabilities. Phoenix coach Monty Williams said this of the big Game 5 win: "It was the defense. When we get stops like that and are able to get out in transition, it gets us going ... And I firmly believe that defense travels. It's the one thing you can do in any gym." Expect that to be the case tonight. The Suns punch their ticket to the Western Conf. Finals, covering the small number along the way. |
|||||||
05-12-22 | Heat +2.5 v. 76ers | Top | 99-90 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
I'm playing on MIAMI. While everyone loves a Game 7, I don't see this series "going the distance." Rather, I believe the Heat will close things out tonight. As you're likely aware, the home team has won and covered every game in this series, thus far. So, it would be easy to make a case for the Mavs. Every game is unique though. I believe that the Heat "turned the corner" last game. The 35-point blowout was never close. They took the fight right out of Philadelphia. Embiid deserves credit for an excellent season but he's not quite himself right now. Already dealing with other issues, he may have tweaked his back last game, too. The following statement by him gives an idea where his head is at: "This is a ‘lose-lose' situation for me. If I don't play, I probably get called soft and if I play and I play bad, they probably come up with a bunch of stuff that I guess he's just not good enough ... " While what he's saying may be partly true, it's still not a good thing for Philadelphia to hear Embid talking like that. Even without Lowry, the Heat are extremely deep. They've also got a real 'leader' in Jimmy Butler, something the 76'ers arguably don't have. Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said this of Butler: "He's a great competitor at his core. When you get into a competition, he understands the full deal -- that you have to do it on both ends. And he's able to compete with a ferocity and an incredibly stable mind. That is really unique ..." The Heat are a dominant 17-6-1 ATS as underdogs. Expect them to improve on those stats here. |
|||||||
05-11-22 | Warriors -2 v. Grizzlies | Top | 95-134 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 38 m | Show |
I'm playing on GSW. Even if Morant was 100% healthy and expected to play, (he's not) I'd be backing the Warriors in this game. While I respect what they've done to get this far, I feel that the Grizzlies are outmatched and that they've missed their opportunity. Indeed, the Grizzlies had their chances to steal the last game which would have made everything different. To come so close, only to fall short, will be tough to recover from. It's a tough one. As Tyus: "It's a tough pill to swallow. It felt like we were leading the whole game. It felt like we were in a good position. It felt like we put ourselves in a good position to win a ballgame and things didn't go our way down the stretch." The battle tested and well-coached Warriors (with or without Kerr) have been here before. They know the importance of taking care of business now and not having to play another game. They'll smell the blood in the water and they'll seal the deal, covering the small number along the way. |
|||||||
05-10-22 | Mavs v. Suns -5.5 | Top | 80-110 | Win | 100 | 34 h 58 m | Show |
I'm playing on PHOENIX. Give the Mavs credit for holding serve at home. The home team is now 4-0 (SU and ATS) in the series. The series shifts back to Phoenix for Game 5 though; I expect homecourt to again prove significant. The Suns have been very tough to beat here all season. They won the first two games of the series here by seven and 20 points. They're 36-10 here overall and they've outscored visiting teams to an average of 115.7 to 106.8. By comparison, the Mavs are a modest 25-21 on the road and they've actually been outscored (108-107.8) in their road games overall. The Suns are still 16-4 ATS their last 20 their last 20 in the revenge role and 65-35 ATS, excluding pushes, their last 100 in that situation. They're 2-0 ATS when tied in a playoff series in these playoffs. In this situation, tied 2-2, in the first round, they won 112-97. The last time that they were off b2b losses, they responded with a double-digit win. I'm expecting more of the same on Tuesday. |
|||||||
05-10-22 | 76ers v. Heat -3 | Top | 85-120 | Win | 100 | 38 h 54 m | Show |
I'm playing on MIAMI. Give the 76'ers credit for holding serve at home. The home team is now 4-0 (SU and ATS) in the series. The series shifts back to Miami for Game 5 though; I expect homecourt to again prove significant. The Heat have been very tough to beat here all season. They won the first two games of the series here by 14 and 16 points. They're 34-12 here overall and they've limited visiting teams to an average of only 104.3 points. They're still averaging only 99.7 points against for the playoffs. Back on their home flloor, look for the Heat to bounce back and improve to 19-10-1 ATS (21-9 SU) the past 30 times that they played with 'revenge.' |
|||||||
05-07-22 | Grizzlies v. Warriors -6.5 | Top | 112-142 | Win | 100 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
I'm playing on GSW. I love how this one sets up for the Warriors. They haven't covered for awhile and are off a loss. That's helped to keep the line lower than it could have been. While the Warriors may have dropped Game 2 and may have failed to cover the two games at Memphis, they did, in fact, accomplish what they needed to. They earned a split and are now back home. Remember, this is a highly (playoff) experienced and very well-coached team which knows how to get it done, in this very situation. It also favors the Warriors that there has been a few days off in between games. They're 7-1 SU and 5-3 ATS the past eight times that they played with three or more day's rest in between games. During the same span, the Grizzlies are 0-2-1 ATS (0-3 SU) when playing with three or more day's rest in between games. They're just 2-7 SU their last nine in that situation. These teams have met four straight times at Memphis now. The Warriors won the last meeting here by nine points though. They're 25-6 SU and 20-11 ATS the past 31 times that they played with 'revenge.' I'm expecting a double-digit win. |
|||||||
05-03-22 | Bucks v. Celtics -4.5 | Top | 86-109 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
I'm playing on BOSTON. After dropping Game 1, needless to say, the Celtics can't afford to lose this one. I expect them to respond with their very best effort. While they didn't fare well in Game 1, the Celtics have typically bounced back from bad losses all season long. They're 7-2 SU/ATS off a double-digit loss and 11-5 ATS (12-4 SU) off a SU loss, when listed as a favorite. Going back further finds them at 21-10 SU/ATS when off a double-digit loss. On the other hand, the Bucks are just 3-9 ATS the past 12 times that they were off an upset win, 1-4 ATS their past five in that situation. Al Horford said this, after the Game 1 loss: "This one should hurt a little bit. We have an opportunity now to learn from this game, see how we can be better as a group and come out and do that Tuesday." Jaylen Brown added: "They hit us in the mouth so we gotta be ready for the next one." Expect the Boston stars, Tatum and Brown, to be better as the Celtics level the series, covering the relatively small number along the way. |
|||||||
05-02-22 | 76ers v. Heat -4 | Top | 92-106 | Win | 100 | 84 h 31 m | Show |
I'm playing on MIAMI. While I won with the 76'ers in their last game, this is a whole different deal. Philadelphia was fortunate to draw Toronto in the first round and still struggled. This year's Miami team is loaded. Expect them to start the series with a convincing double-digit victory. |
|||||||
05-01-22 | Bucks v. Celtics -4.5 | Top | 101-89 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 19 m | Show |
I'm playing on BOSTON. The home team won and covered all four regular season meetings between these teams. I expect homecourt to again prove significant on Sunday. The Celtics had arguably a tougher first round opponent than the Bucks. Yet, their series wasn't even close. They swept the Nets in four games. They're playing at a very high level. They're also healthy, rested and playing at home. The Bucks were able to survive, and even thrive, without Middleton against the Bulls. However, he's a big piece of this Milwaukee team and his absence will be felt now that the champs are stepping up in class and playing at the far more difficult venue. While both teams are well-rested, the Celtics are 10-5-1 ATS the past 16 times that they played with three or more day's rest in between games while the Bucks are 5-11 ATS the last 16 times that they played with three or more day's rest. The Bucks are 6-9 ATS the last 15 times that they faced a team with a winning record. During the same span, the Celtics are 16-5-1 ATS (17-5 SU) when facing a team with a winning record. I'm laying the small number. |
|||||||
04-28-22 | Mavs v. Jazz | Top | 98-96 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
I'm playing on UTAH. While they haven't played well, the Jazz aren't done yet. They've had the past two days off to "regroup" and I expect them to be at their very best tonight. Note that the Jazz are 18-10-2 ATS (24-6 SU) the past 30 times that they played with two day's rest in between games. Remember, the Jazz are still 30-13 at home; the Mavs are 24-19 on the road. Dallas gives up 107.4 on the road, while Utah gives up 107.2 at home. However, while the Mavs average only 107.9 on the road, the Jazz average 116.4 here at home. With the exception of Game 3, the Jazz have had their way with the Mavs here. Expect them to extend the series for another day. |
|||||||
04-28-22 | 76ers -1 v. Raptors | Top | 132-97 | Win | 100 | 34 h 16 m | Show |
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The Raptors defied the odds to get this far. Down 3-0, they've rallied with b2b wins to force a Game 6, on their home floor. Many will now be sure that this series will go the distance. While I respect what the Raptors have done, I'm not among those who think there will be a Game 7. Ultimately, I feel that Embiid and Harden, with help from the likes of Harris, Maxey and Currey will prove to be too much. I expect that to finally happen here. The Raptors held Philadelphia to 88 points last game. However, they're just 1-5 SU/ATS when allowing 90 or fewer points in their previous game, 7-14 ATS after allowing 100 or less. The 76'ers, on the other hand, are 12-7 ATS (15-4 SU) after scoring 100 or less. The series ends here. |
|||||||
04-25-22 | Raptors v. 76ers -7.5 | Top | 103-88 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The Raptors deserve a lot of credit. It would have been easier to just fold and give up. They didn't though. Their Game 4 victory prevented the 4-0 sweep. While the well-coached Raptors clearly have pride, this series is still over. The 76'ers will make sure of that tonight. Even if they weren't banged-up, the Raptors are simply outmatched. Neither of the first two games here were close. The 76'ers won by 20 and by 15. The last time that the 76'ers were off a loss, they bounced back with a 13-point win. Off their previous loss, they bounced back with a 30-point win. Also very well-coached, the 76'ers know they can't afford to mess around. They won't. Expect them to be "all business," en route to another convincing double-digit victory. |
|||||||
04-24-22 | Suns v. Pelicans +2.5 | Top | 103-118 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
I'm playing on NO. The Pelicans couldn't take advantage of the Booker-less Suns in Game 3. However, I expect them to do so this evening. I've pointed out that I really believe the Pelicans are better than many realize. The "three-headed monster" of Igram, Valanciunas and CJ McCollum is indeed formidable. The last time that they were trailing in a playoff series, after their Game 1 loss, they responded with a double-digit win in their next game. Overall, they're a respectable 28-22 ATS in the revenge role. Keep in mind that this team is far better now than it was earlier in the season; adding McCollum made a huge difference. The Suns, meanwhile, are a modest 4-5 SU/ATS in April. Bookier isn't just any player and they'll miss him in this one. I'll grab the points but I expect NO to win outright and even the series. |
|||||||
04-23-22 | Mavs v. Jazz -4.5 | Top | 99-100 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 14 m | Show |
I'm playing on UTAH. Much of the talk before each game has revolved around the status of Doncic. So far, the Mavs haven't needed him. He's expected to return for Game 4. With or without Doncic, it's going to be difficult for the Mavs to shoot as well as they did in Game 3. Keep in mind that other players tend to let down a little when a star returns. Yes, the Mavs were 2-1 in the games that Doncic played against the Jazz this season. However, both those wins were at Dallas. Doncic had a double-double here in February and the Jazz still won. In fact, prior to Thursday night, the Jazz had beaten the Mavs 11 straight times here. The Mavs last win here had been in April of 2016. Note that the Mavs are 1-3 SU/ATS the past four times that they were leading in a playoff series. Backs against the wall, I expect the best from the Jazz. Look for them to resume their homecourt dominance in this series and for them to improve to 7-3 SU/ATS the last 10 times that they attempted to avenge a home loss. |
|||||||
04-22-22 | Bucks -2 v. Bulls | Top | 111-81 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. The Bulls got their split in the two games at Milwaukee. Now, they catch the Bucks without a key player in Middleton. However, the champs have been here before. I expect them to bounce back with their best effort. The Bucks are 5-1 SU/ATS the past six times that they were tied in a playoff series. During that span, the Bulls were 0-0 when tied in a playoff series. I expect that difference in recent playoff experience to prove important this evening. The Bulls are doing some trash-talking about Giannis but he's still the best player on the floor. Even with those ATS wins at Milwaukee, the Bulls remain a poor 14-21 ATS (10-25 SU) in the underdog role. In fact, they're 0-5 ATS the past five times that they were home underdogs. The Bucks have dominated the Bulls here over the years, too. This has been like a home-away-from-home. Behind a huge game from Giannis, expect them to regain control of the series. |
|||||||
04-20-22 | Nets v. Celtics -3.5 | Top | 107-114 | Win | 100 | 37 h 43 m | Show |
I'm playing on BOSTON. You probably saw the exciting ending to Game 1. (In case you missed it, Tatum won it at the buzzer for Boston.) The Nets had their chance to steal that game but couldn't take advantage. I see that as a missed opportunity for the Nets, as I don't see the Celtics providing them a similar chance this evening. That Game 1 victory is the type that a team can build momentum from. Marcus Smart commented: "It was fulfilling for us, especially because of the way we started this year off, those types of games we lost ... But the resilience that we have, the approach we have, and the work we put in to make sure that doesn't happen ..." I backed the Dallas Mavericks in Game 2 of their series and noted that this is still a "team game." In this case, I believe that the Celtics are the more complete "team." Clearly, Durant and Irving are extremely dangerous. The Celtics arguably have the superior depth though. They're more well-rounded and generally play more as a "team." Durant and Irving were the only Net players to reach 20 points in Game 1. The Celtics, on the other hand, had four players score at least 20 points. It should also be mentioned that Boston outscored Brooklyn by a 56-32 margin "in the paint" in Game 1 and that the Celtics should enjoy the edge inside once again. The Celtics are a perfect 5-0 ATS the past five times that they played with two day's worth or rest in between games. They were 11-2 SU when playing a home game with an O/U line of 220 or more. Look for them to take a 2-0 series lead, improving to 17-7-1 ATS (19-6 SU) their last 25 games with an O/U line of 220 or greater. |
|||||||
04-18-22 | Jazz v. Mavs +5.5 | Top | 104-110 | Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
I'm playing on DALLAS. The Mavs aren't being given much respect. I feel that they're providing us excellent value here though. Doncic may be the superstar but this is still a team game. He wasn't the only one that got them this far. Obviously, this is must win territory for the Mavs. They can't afford to drop both games at home. They'll face a Utah team which is just 1-7 ATS the past eight times that it played with one day's rest in between games. The Jazz are also 18-24 ATS (21-21 SU) on the road. Really, the Mavs would have covered Game 1, if they were better at the free throw line. Spencer Dinwiddie noted: "Personally, I've been thinking about the fact we lost by six and I missed six free throws, right? So if anything, this should be encouraging for the fan base, in my opinion. Give them credit. They won the game. ... But we had our chances to win it. And we just didn't do it. Myself, first and foremost: It's inexcusable in a playoff game to miss six free throws." Despite coming up short Saturday, the Mavs are still 10-4-1 ATS the past 15 meetings here. Even better, they're an outstanding 16-3 ATS the past 19 times that they failed to exceed 100 points in their previous game, a highly profitable 26-8 SU/ATS their last 34 in that situation. I'm grabbing the points. |
|||||||
04-17-22 | Hawks v. Heat -6.5 | Top | 91-115 | Win | 100 | 6 h 54 m | Show |
I'm playing on MIAMI. Give the Hawks credit for getting here. They're a tough team and they've shown that they can win in the playoffs. That said, I expect those play-in games, particularly the last one against Cleveland, to catch up with them here. Remember, Miami was the best team in the East. Already loaded, the Heat added Lowry. This is their time. Unlike their guests, the Heat have had time to get healthy. Abebayo has been cleared to play. On the other hand, Capela went down for Atlanta in the last game. That's a huge blow. Keep in mind that the Hawks are just 47-74 ATS on the road the past few seasons, 15-27 ATS this year. The Heat are 9-4-1 ATS (11-3 SU) the past 13 times that they played with three or more day's rest in between games. They're also 10-4 SU/ATS off a double-digit loss. Expect the Heat to make a statement, pulling away for a convincing double-digit win. |
|||||||
04-16-22 | Raptors v. 76ers -4 | Top | 111-131 | Win | 100 | 72 h 28 m | Show |
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The 76'ers aren't being given much respect here. I feel that they could easily be bigger favorites. The 76'ers are more efficient at home than Toronto is on the road. The 76'ers connect on 46.6% of their shots here. The Raptors, on the other hand, hit 43.7% of their shots on the road. The 76'ers allow opposing teams to hit 45.9% of their shots. Toronto allows host teams to connect on 48.6% of their shots. Both teams last played on 4/10. That break figures to favor Philly. Consider that the 76'ers are 3-0 SU/ATS the past three times that they played with three or more day's rest in between games. Going back further finds them at 6-2-1 ATS (8-1 SU) the past nine times that they played with three or more day's rest. During the same span, the Raptors are just 3-6 SU/ATS when playing with three day's rest in between games. Expect the 76'ers to draw first blood, covering the small number along the way. |
|||||||
04-15-22 | Pelicans +4.5 v. Clippers | Top | 105-101 | Win | 100 | 15 h 31 m | Show |
I'm playing on NO. I absolutely respect the Clippers. They started playing their best basketball down the stretch, including a big win over these same Pelicans to start the month. That said, I expect them to have their hands full tonight. As you probably saw, the Clippers lost to the T-Wolves on Tuesday. The next day, the Pelicans took care of business against the Spurs. So, they're the team which comes in with some positive momentum. The Pelicans arguably also have less pressure on them. I believe that makes them very dangerous. While Zion remains out, the trio of Valanciunus, McCollum and Ingram is very formidable and coming in full of confidence. Valanciunus is an absolute load under the net. He's off a 22/14 game. McCollum, a playoff veteran and calming presence, came through for 32 points. Ingram sealed the deal with 27 points of his own. San Antonio coach Greg Popovich had this to say: "The three best players for New Orleans all played great, and if that happens, you're going to lose." Momemtum on their side, facing a Clipper team which is 1-10 ATS the last 11 times it played with two day's rest in between games, I'm grabbing the points with the Pelicans. |
|||||||
04-08-22 | Suns v. Jazz -2.5 | Top | 111-105 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 8 m | Show |
I'm playing on UTAH. While the Suns, who have already locked up the #1 seed, are expected to play their starters, they're unlikely to log really heavy minutes. Even if they do, I expect this game to mean more to the Jazz. After largely struggling for the second half of March, the Jazz have finally put it together their past couple of games. Playing their regular season home finale, against a possible future playoff opponent, they really need to keep that positive momentum going. The Suns outscore teams by an impressive 114.3 to 108.1 average score on the road. However, the Jazz are 29-11 here, outscoring visiting teams by an average score of 117.1 to 106.8. Look for a motivated Jazz team to improve to 50-17 SU their last 67 games here, when the O/U line was 220 or more, picking up the cover along the way. |
|||||||
04-07-22 | Grizzlies v. Nuggets -2.5 | Top | 109-122 | Win | 100 | 15 h 5 m | Show |
I'm playing on DENVER. The Nuggets need this one more than the Grizzlies. A lot more. The Nuggets lost an important one last time out, prompting Aaron Gordon to remark: "It's a bad loss for us. We just didn't take advantage of the opportunity that was presented to us and it's frustrating, but we know we have two games left. Our focus is on that just now." With a win tonight (or one in their final game) the Nuggets can avoid the play-in tournament. The Grizzlies, on the other hand, are locked into their spot. The Grizzlies are likely to be without Morant, Brooks, and/or others. The Nuggets, 4-1 ATS their last five when coming off a double-digit loss, are playing with triple-revenge against a team they may well face in the playoffs. The Nuggets are 26-14-2 ATS (27-15 SU) the past 42 times that they were attempting to avenge an earlier home loss. Expect their best effort to lead to a critical win and cover. |
|||||||
04-06-22 | Celtics v. Bulls +7.5 | Top | 117-94 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
I'm playing on CHICAGO. I really like how this one sets up for the Bulls. The fact that Chicago played last night is providing us with some extra line value. Keep in mind that Chicago had the previous two days off. So, the Bulls came in "rested." The last time that they played the second of b2b games, they won by double-digits. That was on the road. This will be just the fourth time, since __ that the Bulls have played a home game, after having played the previous day. The previous three instances resulted in one outright win and very close games against a pair of top tier teams, Phoenix and Milwaukee. The Bulls lost those games, but only by three and six points. So, they've been "just fine" when playing the second of b2b games, including against in games here against tough competition. (Overall, they're 23-19 SU/ATS the past 2+ seasons, in b2b games.) They've also played the Celtics tough in both games this season. In fact, they blew out the Celtics in the first meeting and lost by only two in the second. Those games were both at Boston, too. The last time that the teams played here, Chicago won by 22 points, as a 4-point underdog. It should also be mentioned that the Celtics face the defending champs, at Milwaukee on TNT, tomorrow. So, it could be easy to have that game already on the back of their minds. With the Celtics just 3-5 SU/ATS their last eight, after scoring 130 or more, grab the generous points with Chicago. |
|||||||
04-05-22 | Grizzlies v. Jazz -5.5 | Top | 115-121 | Win | 100 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
I'm playing on UTAH. While the Grizzlies would surely like to do some damage to their opponent's playoff chances, this game should mean considerably more to the Jazz. Seriously short-handed, the Grizzlies have already locked up the second spot. The Jazz, on the other hand, are fighting for playoff positioning. They're in sixth, at the moment and enter off a tough loss. However, they have a chance to move up to fifth OR they could fall to the seventh. The latter scenario would involve a play-in game. In other words, they really need this game. Added motivation stems from the fact that the Grizzlies have already beaten them twice this season. Mitchell had this to say: "We have a group of guys -- including myself -- where it's gonna feel good when we figure it out. So, we can sit here and feel sorry for ourselves or we can use it as fuel. And I think we have a group of guys who want to do that. Yeah, we messed up. We've messed up fourth quarters 14 times, 15 times. How do we respond? How do we adjust? That's really where I'm at, that's where we're at. We'll figure it out." The Jazz are 4-2-1 ATS (7-0 SU!) when playing with two day's rest and they're 18-9-1 ATS (23-5 SU) their last 28 in that situation. Well rested and highly motivated, expect Mitchell and co. to "figure it out" in blowout fashion. |
|||||||
04-03-22 | Pelicans v. Clippers -1.5 | Top | 100-119 | Win | 100 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
I'm playing on LA. The Pelicans have won all three of this season's meetings. All three wins came by double-digits. This evening, I expect the revenge-minded Clippers to get some payback. The Clippers have quietly started to play well. In their last home game, they beat Utah. They followed that up with an OT loss, at Chicago. Last time out, they scored 153 points in a blowout win, at Milwaukee. While the champs may not have had their stars in the lineup, that's still the type of victory that the Clippers can build momentum and confidence from. (LA is 3-0 SU the past 2+ seasons, after scoring 145 or more.) The Pelicans are off three straight wins. However, those wins were against struggling teams and the Pelicans are just 5-8-1 ATS (5-9 SU) their last 14, when off three or more consec. victories. The Clippers are 8-4 ATS (9-3 SU) when playing a home game with an O/U line of 220 or more. Expect them to improve on those stats this evening. |
|||||||
04-01-22 | Mavs v. Wizards +9 | Top | 103-135 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
I'm playing on WASHINGTON. The Wizards may not have Beal (and Kuzma) but they're still playing hard. Off a double-digit win on Wednesday, I believe that they're offering excellent value as substantital home underdogs on Friday. While the Mavs have won three in a row overall, they've still dropped three of their last four on the road. They're 6-8 ATS when off three or more consec. wins and they're 2-5 ATS when playing a road game with an O/U line of 220 or more. With a game against the defending champs on deck, it should be easy to look past the lowly Wizards. The Wizards, 12-4 ATS their last 16 in the month of April, aren't going to roll over though. They're 5-3 ATS when off a double-digit win (22-12-1 ATS L35 in that situation) and their home record is nearly as good as Dallas' road record. With their next three on the road, the Wizards are going to want to take care of business this evening on homecourt. Expect them to give their guests all that they can handle. |
|||||||
03-31-22 | Bucks v. Nets -1.5 | Top | 120-119 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
I'm playing on BROOKLYN. The Bucks won big in this season's first two meetings. However, the Nets took the most recent. Playing at home, I expect them to salvage the reg. season series split. While the Bucks are 26-12 at home, they're a mediocre 21-16 on the road. A closer look shows that they're only 2-7 ATS their last nine as road underdogs. Even off their win over the 76'ers, the Bucks are still only 12-21 ATS against winning teams. True, the Nets' defense was a bit shaky last game, a 130-124 win over the Pistons. That didn't really surprise me (I had the over) that they got into a fast paced game with the Pistons. When it mattered, they locked it down. Having had more time with Irving in the lineup, the Nets, 8-3 their last 11, are starting to round into form. Speaking of Irving, he had 38 in the most recent meeting with Milwaukee. They won that game without Durant even playing. Now, they'll have both those stars in the lineup; Durant is coming off a 41-point game, one of six Brooklyn players to score in double-digits. Note that the Nets are 3-1 ATS after scoring 130 or more in their previous game. Look for them to improve to 29-11 (SU) their last 40, when playing a home game with an O/U line of 230 or more, picking up the cover along the way. |
|||||||
03-30-22 | Mavs v. Cavs +4.5 | Top | 120-112 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
I'm playing on CLEVELAND. I'm happy to grab the points with the Cavaliers, as I expect them to win outright. Though they failed to cover the big number, the Cavs came through in the fourth quarter for an important win on Monday. They already blew out the Mavs at Dallas and they're 24-14 here at home. Yes, the Cavs are banged up at center, as Allen and Mobley are out. Howver, they've still got options and I feel they'll be fine this evening. While the Cavs rested, the Mavs (20-17 on the road) are off a game last night. They're just 5-6 ATS when playing the second of b2b games. The last time that they played the second of b2b games, the Mavs got hammered 129-108, by Charlotte. Including that 21-point loss, in addition to playing the second of b2b games, the Mavs will be playing their 8th game in the past 13 days. Last night's game may not have been particularly taxing but eight games in less than two weeks is. The Mavs are 0-4 ATS their last four on the road, too. They lost their last three road games outright and their previous two resulted in wins of two and three points. Don't be surprised when the Cavs dig deep and score the upset. |
|||||||
03-29-22 | Bucks v. 76ers -1.5 | Top | 118-116 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 6 m | Show |
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. While the road team won both this season's earlier meetings, I'm expecting homecourt to prove significant this evening. In this season's first meeting here, the 76'ers didn't have Embiid or Harris in the lineup. No Harden either, of course. The stars will be out for the home team tonight though. I expect them to treat this game very seriously, a little more so than their guests. Off a loss last time out, Harris said this: "We have to be a lot sharper with that as we close out these last few games and get ready for playoffs for sure. We're gonna need it to win in the playoffs." On the other hand, Giannis said this for the Bucks: "Obviously, you've got to start taking care of your body because ... there's a bunch of injuries like lingering, you know?" Like somebody's knee, ankle, back, hips. You've got to start taking care of your body. You don't want to go into the playoffs having all these things lingering. You want to be 100 percent healthy because once you go into the playoffs ... stuff is going to happen there." While the Bucks have had a couple of days off, they're only 3-6 ATS when playing with two day's rest in between games. It should also be noted that the champs are just 11-21 ATS against winning teams. The 76'ers are 6-4 ATS (8-2 SU) the past 10 times that they were off a double-digit loss. Expect them to dig deep and improve on those stats this evening. |
|||||||
03-28-22 | Kings v. Heat -12.5 | Top | 100-123 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
I'm playing on MIAMI. The Kings are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. The Kings will be playing without Sabonis and Fox and they'll be facing an angry Miami team. Not only have the Heat lost four straight but the Kings also (narrowly) beat them at Sacramento. With three big road games (Boston, Chicago, Toronto) following this one, the Heat know the importance of taking care of business tonight. They also know that they will benefit from a "confidence building blowout." The Kings just faced Orlando and they've got b2b games against Houston on deck. Those are winnable games for them. This one isn't. While the Kings allow more than 117 ppg on the road, the Heat only allow 105 ppg at home. Expect the Heat to bounce back big, improving to 10-4 ATS when coming off a double-digit loss. |
|||||||
03-25-22 | Knicks v. Heat -5.5 | Top | 111-103 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 59 m | Show |
I'm playing on MIAMI. The Knicks are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. The Heat are off b2b losses and they're going to be angry. They're 9-3 ATS their last 12, when off a double-digit loss, a perfect 5-0 ATS the past five times that they were off a double-digit home loss. They're also 28-19-1 ATS (33-15 SU) their past 48, when off an upset loss. While the Knicks are 16-21 on the road, the Heat are a dominant 26-10 at home. The Heat already handled the Knicks in both this season's meetings. More of the same this evening. |
|||||||
03-24-22 | Cavs v. Raptors -3.5 | Top | 104-117 | Win | 100 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
I'm playing on TORONTO. I successfully played against the Raptors in their last game. However, that was on the road, at Chicago. The Raptors are back home now though and they've had the past couple of days off. Note that they're 5-1 ATS the past six times that they played with two day's rest in between games. While the Raptors have had trouble at Cleveland, including losses in December and earlier this month, they're 4-1 ATS the past five times that they hosted the Cavs. The Raptors have been at their best against winning teams. They're 25-13-1 ATS against teams with a winning record, 12-5 ATS (13-4 SU) their last 17. With the Raptors also 8-4 ATS when off a double-digit loss, look for them to bounce back and get some payback in this one. |
|||||||
03-21-22 | Wolves v. Mavs -3.5 | Top | 108-110 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
I'm playing on DALLAS. The T-Wolves have certainly been playing well. Off their win over the defending champs, I see them stumbling this evening. These teams met twice back in December. The T-Wolves won by six at Minnesota. The Mavs won by 12, here at Dallas. I expect homecourt to prove significant again this evening. The Mavs closed out their road trip with b2b losses. They'll be in an angry mood, as a result. Note that they're still a healthy 8-3 ATS (9-2 SU) when coming off a double-digit loss. Towns is a bit banged up. His replacement (Reid) is, too. Both appear likely to play. However, if Towns wasn't at quite 100%, it would hurd the Wolves greatly. Even if he's playing well, this will be a tough matchup. The Mavs allow 102 ppg at home while the Wolves allow more than 117 ppg on the road. Lay the small number and expect the Mavs to bounce back with a big win. |
|||||||
03-20-22 | Thunder v. Magic -4.5 | Top | 85-90 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
I'm playing on ORLANDO. I like how this one sets up for the Magic. Obviously, neither team is very good. They're both dealing with some injury issues, too. That said, the Magic are playing at home and their current injury issues aren't nearly as bad as OKC's current injuries. Also, the Magic know that they'll face these same Thunder, at OKC, on Wednesday. Not only will they be playing on the road but the Magic will be playing the second of b2b games fo that one. That makes "holding serve" at home today, that much more important. The Magic began their current 6-game road trip with a win over Minnesota. However, they've lost each game since that time and they close the homestand with a far more difficult game against the Warriors on Tuesday. They get tomorrow off though; their full focus is on taking advantage of this winnable game. The Thunder host Boston tomorow and are probably already looking forward to getting home. The Magic have quietly gone 6-2 ATS (5-3 SU) against teams from the Northwest. Expect them to improve on those stats. |
|||||||
03-19-22 | Lakers v. Wizards -1.5 | Top | 119-127 | Win | 100 | 14 h 26 m | Show |
I'm playing on WASHINGTON. I won with the Lakers when these teams faced each other on 3/11. That was at LA though. While both teams had the previous night off, the Wizards had a game (at Portland) the next night. Tonight's rematch sets up differently. Both teams played last night. The Wizards lost to the Knicks. The Lakers left it all on the floor at Toronto, beating the Raptors in OT. Both teams will be playing their third game in four days. However, the Lakers will also be playing their fifth game in the past seven days, which is not the case for Washington. (The Wizards will be playing their fourth, in the past seven days.) The Lakers are 0-5 SU/ATS when playing a road game with an O/U line of 230 or more. Expect the Wizards to bounce back and avenge the recent loss at LA. |
|||||||
03-18-22 | Grizzlies v. Hawks +6 | Top | 105-120 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
I'm playing on ATLANTA. The Hawks haven't covered for some time. That recent skid has helped in providing us with a generous line. As of this writing, Young is questionable (as is Morant). Of course, we want the Hawks' superstar guard to play. That likely won't be decided until closer to tipoff. However, he hasn't missed any time from it yet and has played 36 or more mins in each of the past three games. Also, the Hawks had yesterday off and they get tomorrow off. While they're saying Morant is likely to play, he did miss Tuesday's game. Regardless of who suits up, the Hawks are going to be bringing their best. Keep in mind that, though they may not have covered, they've still won their last three games here. They're 21-12 ATS the past 2+ seasons, when playing a home game with an O/U line of 230 or more. Expect them to improve on those stats this evening. |
|||||||
03-17-22 | Pistons v. Magic -3.5 | Top | 134-120 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
I'm playing on ORLANDO. The home team is 3-0 SU/ATS in three meetings between these teams so far. The Pistons won the first two meetings, both at Detroit. The Magic hammered them in the game here at Orlando though. Playing at home, I expect them to have the edge again this evening. The Magic played Houston and Indiana (and beat both) at the end of February. However, their March schedule has been tough. Their last seven games have included road games at Toronto, Memphis and New Orleans (They actually won two of those.) and home games against the Suns, T-Wolves, 76'ers and Nets. Up until the game against the Nets, they'd been doing really well. They beat red hot Minnesota and they only lost by two against the 76'ers and by three to Phoenix. Off the blowout loss to the Nets, note that they're 4-1 ATS after allowing 130 or more points. Taking a big step down in class, look for the Magic to bounce back. |
|||||||
03-16-22 | Suns v. Rockets +11 | Top | 129-112 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
I'm playing on HOUSTON. I successfully played against the Rockets in their last game; they got blown out by the Pelicans. That was at New Orleans though. Now, the Rockets are back home and they've had a couple of days off in between games. Houston is a respectable 14-11 ATS its past 25, when playing with two day's rest in between games, a much better percentage than when playing with other amounts of rest, during the same span. On the other hand, the Suns are off a game at New Orleans last night. In addition to playing the second of b2b games, they'll be playing their third game in the past four days and their fifth in the past seven. Having logged all those minutes over the past week, the Suns could easily take the Rockets, a team which they've already defeated three times, lightly. The Rockets gave the Suns all that they could handle in the last meeting. They lost by only three, as 16.5 point road underdogs. Schedule and venue in their favor, expect them to again provide the Suns a much tougher test than many will be expecting. |
|||||||
03-15-22 | Pistons v. Heat -13 | Top | 98-105 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
I'm playing on MIAMI.The Pistons are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Off a loss to the T-Wolves on Saturday, the Heat are going to be in an angry mood this evening. They take care of business against teams like the Pistons, too. They're a perfect 6-0 ATS their past six vs. teams with a winning percentage below .400. Saturday's loss was Miami's second game in two days. The Heat have now had two days off in between games though, so they're well rested. Note that they're 21-9 ATS (23-7 SU) the past 30 times that they played with two day's rest in between games, 7-3 ATS (9-1 SU) their past 10. They get the next two days off, too. Their full focus is on the task at hand. The Heat are also 10-5 ATS when off an upset loss. Additionally, they're 4-1 ATS (5-0 SU) the past five times that they were listed as home favorites of -12.5 or more. Lay the points and expect a blowout. |
|||||||
03-14-22 | Wolves v. Spurs +4 | Top | 149-139 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
I'm playing on SAN ANTONIO. I successfully played against the Spurs last game. That was a tough spot for them though. Popovich had broken the record the previous night, so the Spurs were playing the second of b2b games. They were also laying points, to boot. Now, however, they're rested, after having yesterday off. They also have tomorrow off. Their full focus is on the task at hand. Note that Murry, previously questionable, has been upgraded to probable, as of this writing. Now, they're even getting points, instead of laying them. No question that the T-Wolves have been plahying well. This has long been a house of horrors for them though. The Spurs are 39-10 SU the past 49 meetings here. The Spurs are 12-7-1 ATS the past 20 times that they were off a double-digit loss. Going back further finds them at 30-19-3 ATS in that situation. Expect them to bounce back and improve on those stats tonight. |
|||||||
03-12-22 | Pacers +5.5 v. Spurs | Top | 119-108 | Win | 100 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
I'm playing on INDIANA. While the Pacers come in well-rested, the Spurs are a off a hard-fought win over the Jazz. This will be the Spurs' third game in four days. The last time that they played the second of b2b games, they allowed 133 points in a loss at Miami. Now, they're being asked to lay a handful of points. The Pacers have struggled a bit lately but its not for lack of effort. They lost by three points last time out, falling 127-124. The Pacers won outright as 7-point underdogs here last season and they already beat the Spurs, at Indiana. Including that result, they're 15-8 ATS against teams from the Western Conference. They're also 10-2-1 ATS their last 13, after allowing 125 or more points in their previous game. Schedule in their favor, look for the Pacers to bounce back and give their hosts all that they can handle. |
|||||||
03-11-22 | Wizards v. Lakers -3.5 | Top | 109-122 | Win | 100 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
I'm playing on LA. Off a loss to the lowly Houston Rockets, I expect the Lakers to bounce back with a huge effort tonight. A game against the Wizards figures to be just what the doctor ordered. Off a loss against the Clippers on Wednesday, Washington is 0-6 SU/ATS against teams from the Pacific, 9-16 ATS its past 25. Overall, the Wizards are a dismal 5-16 ATS against teams from the West. Washington figures to have trouble keeping up in this one. While the Wizards average 104.6 ppg on the road, the Lakers average 111.8 here at home. They're averaging 115.8 ppg their past five. The Wizards beat the Lakers here, in OT, last season. Beal had 33 points and Westbrook had 32 points, along with 14 rebounds and nine assists. No other Wizard scored more than 15. Beal is out and now Westbrook plays for the Lakers. Expect Westbrook to have a big game against his former team, the Lakers responding with a much needed win and cover. |
|||||||
03-09-22 | Celtics v. Hornets +7.5 | Top | 115-101 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
I'm playing on CHARLOTTE. While the Celtics check in as the hotter team, I expect the Hornets to be the hungrier one. The Hornets fell behind early last night and couldn't recover. They kept battling though and I expect them to get off to a better start this evening. As coach Borrego commented: "We just have to get off to a better start ..." Note that the Hornets had the previous two days off, before playing last night. So, they're aren't playing their third game in four nights here. As for Boston coming in rested, note that the Celtics are only 2-5-2 ATS (4-5 SU), when playing with two day's rest in between games. The Celtics are also only 8-15-1 ATS (9-15 SU) the past 2+ seasons, after playing their previous three games at home. The Hornets have played the Celtics tough in all three meetings. They split the two meetings at Boston, winning one by nine and losing the other by six. They lost the game here at Charlotte. However, they took the Celtics to OT. (They won the previous game here by 20+.) Expect them to give their hosts all they can handle again tonight, improving to 10-3 ATS when facing teams from the Atlantic. |
|||||||
03-07-22 | Bulls +7 v. 76ers | Top | 106-121 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 33 m | Show |
I'm playing on CHICAGO. The Bulls are coming in extremely hungry. Not only are they desperate to snap their 4-game losing streak but they're also playing with "triple revenge," having lost all three of this season's meetings. The game here at Philadelphia was a close one, the 76'ers winning by five. With this game also being played at Philadelphia, we're getting a few extra points to work with. (Note that three of Chicago's four losses, on the current skid, were by fewer than seven points.) Yet, the 76'ers are a team which actually has a better road record. (They're 18-13 at home but 21-11 on the road.) The Bulls have had a tough stretch of games but they've finally had a chance to catch their breath. They had the weekend off. They also get tomorrow off. They should be refreshed and fully focused on the task at hand. The 76'ers are off a 17-point loss and they won their previous game by six. Grab the points and don't be surprised if the revenge-minded visitors score the outright upset. |
|||||||
03-04-22 | Wolves v. Thunder +8.5 | Top | 138-101 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
I'm playing on OKC. I believe that the value lies with the revenge-minded home underdog in this one. The Thunder have treated me well and I already won my Div. "GOY" on them. This is a team which has been at its best in divisional play. The Thunder beat Denver outright last game and are now 7-2 ATS against teams from within their division. One of the losses came in the last meeting against Minnesota. I won with the 'over' in that one; the T-Wolves came here and scored 135 points. (That game had a much lower O/U line than this one!) The Thunder haven't forgotten and they're coming in with a score to settle. Note that they're 30-15-1 ATS their past 46 in the 'revenge' role, 71-45-4 ATS their past 120. I like that the Thunder have tomorrow night off. On the other hand, the Wolves, who upset the Warriors last time out, have a game vs. Portland on deck tomorrow. With Minnesota just 11-25 ATS (10-26 SU) the past 36 times that it was off an upset win, I'm grabbing the points. |
|||||||
03-03-22 | Bulls v. Hawks +5 | Top | 124-130 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
I'm playing on ATLANTA. The Hawks recently lost to the Bulls, at Chicago. Playing with "triple revenge," they're going to be extremely motivated. I believe that the Hawks are catching Chicago at the right time. Since beating the Hawks by four, the Bulls have dropped b2b games. Chicago coach Donavan acknowledged his team is a bit inexperienced and doesn't seem to mind bringing out the best in the other team: "The biggest thing for me is we have to get battle-tested in some of these games, and we just don't have a lot of guys who have gone into these kind of experiences. I think it's really good for us." Expect him to get his wish tonight as the Hawks are going to give them all that they can handle. The Hawks are 10-2 ATS their last 12 at home and 5-0 ATS their last five home games against teams with a winning road record. Grab the points. |
|||||||
03-02-22 | Kings v. Pelicans -5.5 | Top | 95-125 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
I'm playing on NEW ORLEANS. Both teams have covered the spread in b2b games. The Pelicans victories have arguably been more impressive though. They won outright, by 15 points, at Phoenix. That's no easy task. (Even with that result, the Suns have the best record in the NBA and are tied for the best home record.) Then, the Pelicans followed it up with a 28 point blowout win, at LA. They return home flying high and full of confidence. The Kings also won big in their last game. However, that was against the Thunder, the team with the second worst record in the West. Prior to that, they'd lost four straight. Having lost each of this season's first two meetings, the Pelicans have a score to settle. While the Kings are 1-5 ATS their last six on road games vs. teams with losing home records, the Pelicans are 5-1-1 ATS (or 6-1 ATS) their last seven games vs. teams with losing records, overall. Note that NO has had two days off and also gets tomorrow off. Sacraemento, on the other hand, has had one day off and has a game against San Antonio tomorrow night. With the Kings just 2-8 SU/ATS the past 10 times that they scored 130 or more in their previous game, lay the points with the revenge-minded Pelicans. |
|||||||
03-01-22 | Warriors +1 v. Wolves | Top | 114-129 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 35 m | Show |
I'm playing on GSW. While the Warriors had last night off, the T-Wolves are off a hard-fought win at Minnesota. The Cavs battled back hard in the fourth quarter, forcing Minnesota to give extra effort. The last time that the Wolves played the second of b2b games was less than a week ago. They lost by 31 points. In fact, they're 0-3 ATS when playing the second of b2b games this month (all three losses were by double-digits) and they're now 0-5 ATS their last five in that situation. While they're still less than 100% healthy, having just lost to Dallas, the Warriors are going to be extremely hungry. They're 8-3 SU when off an upset loss. Last time that they were off a loss, they bounced back with a 37-point win. Schedule in their favor, I expect them to bounce back, once again. |
|||||||
02-26-22 | Wizards v. Cavs -7.5 | Top | 86-92 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
I'm playing on CLEVELAND. The Wizards are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Off three straight losses, the Cavs are going to be an angry team. Note that all of those losses came on the road. Here at home, the Cavs are 18-9 SU and 17-9-1 ATS, holding visiting teams to only 99.7 points, per game. That's the best mark in the entire NBA. Note that the Cavs are 7-1-1 ATS after playing their previous three or more games on the road. Not only do the Cavs have the venue in their favor but they've also got the schedule working in their favor. They had last night off while the Wizards are off a 2-OT loss against the Spurs. Indeed, this isn't a "typical" b2b spot, as last night's game was extra taxing. Having lost two of this season's three h2h meetings, the Cavs have a score to settle. Expect a double-digit win. |
|||||||
02-25-22 | Raptors v. Hornets +2.5 | Top | 93-125 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
I'm playing on CHARLOTTE. I believe that the break came at the right time for the Hornets. They'd been struggling and the time off will have provided a chance to get healthy, regroup, and recharge. The Raptors may not have appreciated the break so much, as they'd been playing well. Toronto is 3-5 SU/ATS the past eight times it played with three or more day's rest in between games. Note that the Hornets were off b2b OT losses, prior to the break. So, it wasn't like they weren't fighting. Tonight, they play with 'double-revenge,' as the Raptors have taken both this season's meetings. The most recent of those came earlier this month, when the Hornets were really struggling. They'll be looking for some payback here. Note that prior to this season's two games, the Hornets were a perfect 5-0 ATS their previous five against Toronto. The Hornets returned from their Christmas break and promptly won their next game by 24 points. I look for their best effort again this evening, as they move to 3-1 ATS their past four, when playing with three or more day's rest in between games. |
|||||||
02-16-22 | Nuggets v. Warriors -5 | Top | 117-116 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 6 m | Show |
I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE. The Nuggets are at the wrong place, at the wrong time. Off a loss last time out and having dropped three of four, the Warriors are going to be all business tonight. Added motivation stems from the fact that the Nuggets beat them here, just after Christmas. The Warriors have long had their number here though, winning 34 of the past 50 meetings here. Tonight, they'll return to their winning ways in the series. Note that the Warriors are an outstanding 59-39 ATS in the 'revenge' role the past 2+ seasons, 12-5 ATS (15-2 SU) their last 17. Also, note that GSW didn't have Klay Thompson for the first meeting. The Nuggets are off a 10-point win. However, that game was played at Denver and it came against lowly Orlando. Big difference from what they'll encounter here. Also, note that the Nuggets are 6-8-1 ATS their last 15, when off a double-digit win and 27-38-2 ATS in that situation the past 2+ seasons. While the Nuggets did manage the upset here earlier, they're only mediocre (16-15) on the road while the Warriors are dominant (26-5) at home. The Nuggets get outscored (slightly) on the road while the Warriors outscore visiting teams by an average of 113.5 to 101.3. Obviously, Jokic is a load. He'll put up big numbers, as per usual. Tonight, however, that won't be enough. Curry and co. resume their dominance in the series with a double-digit victory. |
|||||||
02-15-22 | Hornets +6.5 v. Wolves | Top | 120-126 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
I'm playing on CHARLOTTE. The Hornets won big in this season's earlier meeting, at Charlotte. I expect them to give their hosts all that they can handle again this evening. The Wolves were fortunate to eke out a cover at Indiana on Sunday. This will be their first game back home from a road trip. Note that they play tomorrow, too. The Hornets, who have tomorrow off, have had the past couple of days off. They last played on 2/12. That's noteworthy as they're 5-1 ATS the past six times that they played with two day's rest in between games, 10-4-1 ATS their last 15 in that situation. The Hornets, who hammered the Wolves here last season, won by 22 the last time that they played on the road. In fact, they're 3-0 ATS on the road since 1/26, two big wins and a cover at Boston. They score 115.4 ppg on the road compared to Minnesota's 109.2 at home. Grab the points. |
|||||||
02-13-22 | Wolves v. Pacers +6.5 | Top | 129-120 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 21 m | Show |
I'm playing on INDIANA. The Pacers painfully blew the cover in Friday's loss to the Cavs. Despite the fact that they ultimately lost by seven, I liked what I saw from the new lineup. Now, they've got a game under their belt, I'm expecting their best effort this afternoon. The T-Wolves have been a bit of a streaky team. Currently, they're at the end of a road trip and off b2b double-digit losses. They allowed 132 and 134 points in those games. That's noteworthy as the Wolves are only 10-20-1 ATS (10-21 SU) the past 31 times that they allowed 130 or more points in their previous game. Going back further finds them at a money-burning 21-39-1 ATS in that situation. This season's earlier meeting, played at Minnesota, came down to the wire. The Wolves won by two. The previous meeting, which was the most recent here at Indiana, was also very close. The Pacers won by four. They're 4-1 SU/ATS the past five in the series. Though they've struggled against teams from the East, the Pacers are a profitable 15-6 ATS against Western Conference teams. Grab the points. |
|||||||
02-12-22 | Cavs v. 76ers -3.5 | Top | 93-103 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. While both clubs are playing their second game in two days, not all b2b spots are equal. The Cavs had to fight really hard to come back to win at Indiana last night. Stepping up in class to face the 76'ers, I expect last night's game to take a toll on them today. The 76'ers also played last night. However, they had an easier win than Cleveland. Also, they didn't have to travel at all, as their game was here. Additionally and importantly, the 76'ers had two nights off, prior to the b2b situation. That's not the case for the Cavs, as they played Wednesday. So, this makes it three games in four days for Cleveland but not for Philadelphia. The 76'ers won by 20 the last time that these teams met. Schedule in their favor, I see them also winning this one by double-digits. |
|||||||
02-11-22 | Cavs v. Pacers +6.5 | Top | 120-113 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
I'm playing on INDIANA. The Pacers will look a lot different tonight. I expect the new additions to provide an immediate spark. These teams just met at Cleveland, on 2/6. Playing at home, the Cavs got the win and cover. The Cavs also beat the Pacers (by only four) when the teams played at Cleveland, on 1/2. The revenge-minded Pacers have finally have homecourt in their favor tonight though; they've had their way with the Cavs here over the years. They've had the past couple of days off and they also get tomorrow off. On the other hand, the Cavs played Wednesday and they've got a big showdown with the 76'ers on the deck tomorrow night. With the Pacers a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS after allowing 130 or more points in their previous game, I'm grabbing the points |
|||||||
02-08-22 | Wolves v. Kings +4.5 | Top | 134-114 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 18 m | Show |
I'm playing on SACRAMENTO. The T-Wolves just faced the Pistons in b2b games. To their credit, they won and covered both. However, both games were a lot closer than the scores indicated; the Wolves were arguably fortunate to cover in both. Either way, games against the Pistons tend to make teams look a little better than they actually are. I feel that the Wolves are a little over-valued in this one and I expect the Kings to give them all that they can handle. The Kings are quietly playing well themselves. They're 3-0 ATS in February, 2-0 SU their last two home games. They've got more home wins than Minnesota has road wins. They're also 5-2 ATS when playing with two day's rest in between games. They beat the Wolves the last time that the teams met here and I see them scoring the upset again this evening. |
|||||||
02-07-22 | Raptors v. Hornets +2.5 | Top | 116-101 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
I'm playing on CHARLOTTE. These teams met on 1/25, at Toronto. Playing at home, the Raptors won and covered. With this evening's rematch being played at Charlotte, I expect the revenge-minded Hornets to return the favor. Yes, the Raptors have played well since the earlier meeting and they're off a big win. Those results have been factored in to the line though as we're now able to get Charlotte as an underdog, as a result. Also, note that Toronto is just 3-8 ATS when off a double-digit win. The Hornets were -2.5 point favorites the last time that they hosted the Raptors. They won by 10. On the season, the Hornets are 14-10 (15-9 ATS) at home, the Raptors are 12-11 on the road. A few recent losses notwithstanding, the Hornets are 17-7 ATS their last 24 against teams with a winning record. The Hornets are also 9-5 ATS off a double-digit loss and 8-4-1 ATS (9-4 SU) after having allowed 105 or fewer points, in their previous game. Expect them to bounce back and cool off the Raptors. |
|||||||
02-06-22 | Pelicans v. Rockets +5 | Top | 120-107 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
I'm playing on HOUSTON. Knowing that they'll face these same Pelicans again on Monday, at New Orleans, the Rockets are going to go all out to "hold serve" at home this evening. They already hammered the Pelicans in this season's earlier meeting here and they won their last game here (Cleveland) by double-digits. I backed them in that one and feel that this is another strong spot to do so. The Pelicans are at the end of a road trip. Even with a couple of recent wins, they're still 9-19 on the road, getting outscored by an average of 109.3 to 103. I noted the following before the win over the Cavs: "Admittedly, the Rockets have been inconsistent. However, they've had their moments. Recall the earlier 7-game winning streak. They've beaten teams like the Bulls, Nets and Jazz. When they're fully motivated and at their best, they can actually be pretty good. I expect that to be the case this evening ..." In the front end of a home-and-home set, I feel the same way here. The Pelicans are only 6-10 ATS against teams with a losing record and they're just 5-10 ATS (3-12 SU!) when playing a game with an O/U line above 220. Grab the points but expect the outright win. |
|||||||
02-05-22 | Thunder v. Kings -6 | Top | 103-113 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
I'm playing on SACRAMENTO. The home team has taken both meetings so far this season. The Thunder won by two at OKC. That was followed by a 16-point win by the Kings, here at Sacramento. The previous two games in the series, here at Sacramento, also resulted in big wins for the Kings. Sacramento won by 16 and 28 points. Tonight, in addition to having the venue in their favor, the Kings also have the schedule working for them. They had last night off while the Thunder are off a win up in Portland. In addition to playing the second of b2b games, the Thunder will also be playing their third game in the past four days. It's this type of tough scheduling spot where the injury to Gilgeous-Alexander (and others) will catch up to them. Playing the second of b2b games, the Kings lost (but covered) at Golden State last time out. No shame in that. Prior to that, in their last home game, they beat Brooklyn by double-digits. Schedule in their favor, I'm expecting another double-digit win tonight. |
|||||||
02-02-22 | Cavs v. Rockets +3.5 | Top | 104-115 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
I'm playing on HOUSTON. Admittedly, the Rockets have been inconsistent. However, they've had their moments. Recall the earlier 7-game winning streak. They've beaten teams like the Bulls, Nets and Jazz. When they're fully motivated and at their best, they can actually be pretty good. I expect that to be the case this evening. This is the final leg of a 4-game homestand. The first three games were against tough Western Conf. opponents and the Rockets stumbled. They don't want to go winless in the four games. They also have a score to settle as the Cavs hammered them, at Cleveland. That was the front end of a b2b for the Rockets; they had a revenge game against the Knicks on deck the next day. That's not the case here. They had yesterday off and they get tomorrow off. Their full attention and focus is on the task at hand. Only two of the Cavs' past seven games have come on the road. They lost both those games; they're just 1-5 ATS their past six overall. Rubio and Sexton are out for the season but the Cavs are also expected to be without Markkanen and Garland. While the Cavs eked out a 93-90 home win last time out, they're just 15-39-2 ATS (14-42 SU) the past 56 times that they scored 100 or less in their previous game. I'll happily grab the points but I look for the revenge-minded Rockets to score the upset. |
|||||||
01-31-22 | Heat v. Celtics -3.5 | Top | 92-122 | Win | 100 | 14 h 43 m | Show |
I'm playing on BOSTON. The Celtics handled the Heat early in the season, a 95-78 blowout at Miami. While it may be tempting to back the revenge-minded Heat, I feel that Miami will have to wait for its chance to get some payback. It took awhile but I really like what I'm seeing from the Celtics right now. They won their last game, at New Orleans, by 10. They also won their last game on this floor by 53 points. They're 3-1 SU/ATS their past four, the lone loss coming at Atlanta, against the red hot Hawks. Note that the Celtics have tomorrow off; they're going to leave it all on the floor this evening. The Heat are generally tough (18-6) at home but they're only mediocre (14-12 SU) on the road. It should be noted that the Heat were just upset by Toronto in their last game and they face those same Raptors again tomorrow. Though they had yesterday off, the Heat will still be playing their fourth game in the past six days. The Celtics are 12-8 ATS their last 20, when off a game where they held their opponent to 105 or fewer points. While I obviously respect the Heat, homecourt in their favor, I say the Celtics build off their strong defensive performance with another win and cover this evening. |
|||||||
01-28-22 | Pistons v. Magic -2.5 | Top | 103-119 | Win | 100 | 20 h 28 m | Show |
I'm playing on ORLANDO. It doesn't happen often but the Magic find themselves listed as (small) favorites. I expect them to make the most of the opportunity. These teams have already met twice. The Pistons won both games. Both those games were at Detroit though. Playing with "double-revenge" will provide the Magic with some added motivation. While the Magic defense has admittedly been poor at home, the Pistons defense is even worse on the road. They allow 115 ppg, when playing away from Detroit. Host teams make 48.8% of their field goals against the Pistons. (That's the worst road defense, in terms of opponents field goal percentage) in the entire NBA. While they stumbled against the Clippers last time out, the Magic hammered the Bulls 114-95 in their previous game. That's arguably more impressive than anything that the Pistons have recently accomplished. They're 1-5 their last six, 0-3 their last three. The lone win came by two against Sacramento. The Magic are actually a solid 27-18-1 ATS (33-13 SU) as favorites the past 2+ seasons. Expect them to improve on that 60% record on Friday evening. |
|||||||
01-25-22 | Mavs v. Warriors -3 | Top | 92-130 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
I'm playing on GSW. The Warriors won't have all hands on deck but they're still going to have enough to take care of business at home tonight. While the Mavs are a mediocre 12-11 away from Dallas, the Warriors are a dominant 21-4 at home. Having been embarrassed at Dallas earlier this month, the night that Dirk's number got retired, and also the last time that the Mavs visited here, the Warriors will be all business tonight. The Warriors are 9-5 ATS (12-2 SU) their last 14, when playing with revenge. The Mavs, meanwhile, are just 7-11 ATS after allowing 100 or fewer points in their previous game. Curry played poorly in the earlier meeting but he'll be better tonight. Payback time. |
|||||||
01-23-22 | Pistons v. Nuggets -11.5 | Top | 111-117 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
I'm playing on DENVER. The Nuggets are off a loss. After this game, they've got a long road trip. It starts at Detroit, with a rematch against the Pistons. That makes taking care of business on their home floor absolutely mandatory. Catching the Pistons at the end of a road trip, I expect the motivated Nuggets to deliver a blowout. The Nuggets were laying -11.5 when they hosted the Pistons last year. They jumped out to a 20-point lead by halftime and cruised to a 15-point win. Tonight, off the Memphis loss, I don't expect them to take their foot off the gas. The Pistons are 4-20 away from Detroit and get outscored by a 115-101 avg score. Host teams hit 48.7% of their field goals against Detroit; terrible defense. This remains one of the tougher venues in the league. Expect a one-sided affair. |
|||||||
01-22-22 | Thunder +12.5 v. Cavs | Top | 87-94 | Win | 100 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
I'm playing on OKC. Off a sub-par showing last night, the Thunder will be hungry to bounce back with a better performance. Additional motivation stems from the fact that the Cavs narrowly beat them, at OKC, only a week ago. Even with last night's loss, the Thunder have still quietly gone an outstanding 55-33-2 ATS their last 90 road games. They're 9-6 ATS off a double-digit loss and 9-4 ATS after having lost their previous three. The Cavs are also off a blowout loss. They're only 25-44-3 ATS (17-55 SU) their past 72, off a double-digit loss though. While the Cavs may be the fresher team, OKC is the healthier one. The Thunder won here last season and I expect them to bring their best effort again tonight. Grab the points. |
|||||||
01-21-22 | Pistons v. Jazz -13 | Top | 101-111 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
I'm playing on UTAH. The Pistons are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. On a rare slide, 0-2 their last two and 1-6 SU/ATS their last six, the Jazz are going to be angry. Make that "really angry," when considering that one of those losses came by double-digits, at Detroit. Utah was laying -11 for that game, too. So, that was a game they were absolutely expected to win, which will make getting some "proper payback" mandatory for them tonight. Yes, the Jazz will be without Mitchell. That's helped keep the line a little lower than it otherwise could have been though. He's a strong player but the Jazz have plenty of backcourt depth. The Pistons, on the other hand, are less equipped to deal with their missing players. The Pistons eked out a 133-131 win at Sacramento last game, helping to win our 'over' play. They're just 1-7 SU/ATS their last eight off an 'upset' win though, 10-23-2 ATS (5-30 SU) their last 35 in that situation. The Jazz have dominated the Pistons for years. They're 5-0 SU and 3-1-1 ATS the past five meetings here, three of those victories coming by more than 20 points. Look for the revenge-minded Jazz to deliver another one-sided blowout. |
|||||||
01-19-22 | Wolves v. Hawks -2.5 | Top | 122-134 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
I'm playing on ATLANTA. The T-Wolves have been playing well for some time now while the Hawks have been struggling. This one sets up nicely for Atlanta though. The Hawks finally turned the corner last game, as they beat the Bucks. I backed them in that game and stated that a visit from the defending champs, a playoff rematch, was just what they needed to get going. Off that much-needed win, the Hawks had yesterday off. I expect Young and co. to carry the positive momentum into this evening's game. While the Hawks were resting yesterday, the Wolves played an emotional (2-point win) game at MSG. I like that they had to really fight hard and I also like that they won. The last time that they played the second of b2b games, after having won the previous night, the Wolves scored only 88 points. This will mark their third game in the past four days. Minnesota is just 66-101 ATS over the years, against teams from the Southeast, 1-4 ATS this season. The Hawks already won big at Minnesota and they swept the Wolves last season. Schedule in their favor, expect them to continue their recent success in the series this evening. |
|||||||
01-17-22 | Jazz v. Lakers +5 | Top | 95-101 | Win | 100 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
I'm playing on LA. The Jazz certainly looked dominant at Denver last night. However, they were catching the Nuggets playing the second of b2b games. The shoe is on the other foot this evening though. The Jazz played in the altitude of Denver last night while the Lakers rested. They've been mediocre, at best, when playing the second of b2b games. They're 3-4 SU/ATS in that situation this season, 14-16 ATS their past 30. Last time that the Jazz played the second of b2b games, they got pounded by the Pacers. The Lakers are going to be desperate. They've still won four of their past five games here. They're also 6-2 ATS their last eight against the Jazz. Grab the points. |
|||||||
01-12-22 | Heat v. Hawks -3.5 | Top | 115-91 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
I'm playing on ATLANTA. This is the first of three meetings between these teams, over the next nine days. They'll meet again, at Miami, on Friday. Knowing that the Heat are much better on their home floor (12-4 compared to 13-11) than on the road, the Hawks know that they need to take care of business on their home floor. While the Hawks have really struggled over the past month or so, they're better than those results suggest and they're finally, slowly, getting healthy. Tonight, it's the Heat which will arguably be impacted more by missing players. While they didn't get the result that they wanted, I liked the improved defensive effort from the Hawks last game. Interim coach Jent noted: "I thought overall our defense was good. The transition defense, when can keep people out of transition, we give ourselves a chance. We didn't give the Clippers a fast-break basket in the first half ..." The Hawks won by 15 the last time that the teams played here. I see them digging deep and coming away with a much needed victory, picking up the cover along the way. |
|||||||
01-10-22 | Spurs v. Knicks -6.5 | Top | 96-111 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
I'm playing on NY. After playing at Brooklyn yesterday afternoon, at the end of a long road trip, one which began "last year," I don't expect the Spurs to have much left in the tank this evening. While they recently beat Boston, when playing the second of b2b games, this one sets up differently. Prior to that Boston game, the Spurs had been blown out by Toronto the previous day. They'd also had two days off, prior to that Toronto game. On the other hand, yesterday saw the Spurs lose a heartbreaker. They left it all on the floor and nearly scored the upset. In the end, however, they lost by two points, in OT. So, the first game of the b2b set was far more grueling (and gut-wrenching) this time. Also, unlike the setup for the previous b2b situation, this time, the Spurs are also playing their third game in four days. In fact, this will mark their fifth game in the past seven days. The Knicks, on the other hand, had yesterday off. They're going to be in an angry mood, after getting hammered by Boston on Saturday. The Knicks already won, at SA, by a dozen points. While the Spurs would love to avenge that loss, they're just 4-7 ATS (2-9 SU) their last 11, when attempting to avenge an earlier home loss. Look for the Knicks to have fresher legs and for them to pull away for another double-digit win, improving to 15-8 ATS their last 23, against teams from the Southwest. |
|||||||
01-09-22 | Nuggets v. Thunder +7.5 | Top | 99-95 | Win | 100 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
I'm playing on OKC. The Thunder are off a defensive dud last time out, as they allowed 135 points to the T-Wolves. That suited me just fine, as I had a play on the 'over.' Those types of games have been rare though, particularly at home. Despite failing to cover in that game, the Thunder are still 9-3 ATS their last 12 games. The Nuggets are 3-5 ATS their last eight. The last time they were on the road, they lost by 14. I had a big play on the Thunder when they upset the Nuggets here on 12/22. Including a 108-94 loss in that game, the Nuggets are 3-2 their last five on the road. However, two of the three victories were by three points. So, only one of their last five road games has been a big win. That came against a terrible Houston team, which was playing the second of b2b games and the Nuggets still won by only 11. The Nuggets score 106 ppg and the Thunder are 13-4 ATS their last 17 against teams which average 108 or fewer points, per game. Grab the points. |
|||||||
01-05-22 | Heat v. Blazers +1.5 | Top | 115-109 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
I'm playing on PORTLAND. The Blazers got back on track last game. This should be a 'sweet spot' for them to make it two in a row. Portland is missing a couple of big guns. However, the Heat figure to be missing a lot more. Miami has fought hard, despite being short-handed, in recent games. Jimmy Butler has now been added to the (lengthy) list of missing players though, as he has an ankle injury. Playing the fourth leg of a West Coast road trip, Butler's absence figures to take a lot of fight out of the Heat. The Blazers had four different players score more than 20 points last game, five players scoring in double-figures. They'll be too much for their short-handed guests to handle. |
|||||||
01-02-22 | Heat v. Kings +4 | Top | 113-115 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show |
I'm playing on SACRAMENTO. The Kings are playing at home and they've got the much healthier team. Yet, they're still getting points. That shows how bad things have been in Sacramento lately. That said, the Kings did just earn a split with the Mavs and they're 2-1 their last three. This is an excellent spot for them to pick up a victory and I expect them to rise to the occasion. The Heat still have Butler, Lowry and Herro. They're missing nearly everyone else though. To their credit, they beat Houston last time out. Still, their previous game was cancelled, due to not even having enough players. They're still without the likes of Oladipo, Adebayo, Morris, Dedmon, Okpala etc. Its also worth mentioning that the Heat have a "big game" against the Warriors tomorrow night. (The Kings have tomorrow off.) The Heat are just 23-35-1 ATS the past 2+ seasons, when off a double-digit win. The Kings already had their turn dealing with Covid-issues. They won't show their short-handed guests any sympathy tonight. |
|||||||
12-31-21 | Knicks v. Thunder +5.5 | Top | 80-95 | Win | 100 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
I'm playing on OKC. Off b2b road losses, the Thunder will be happy to return home. They've played three games here since 12/18 and they won all three of them. Wins came against the Pelicans, Nuggets and Clippers. Catching a NY team without Randle and others provides an excellent shot at another win. I've mentioned recently that the second unit of the Thunder has been playing very well lately. The Thunder are 11-5 ATS against losing team and 20-12 ATS when listed as underdogs. Look for them to give their guests all they can handle with a great shot at the outright win. Grab the points. |
|||||||
12-29-21 | Hornets v. Pacers -2.5 | Top | 116-108 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
I'm playing on INDIANA. The Pacers narrowly missed covering at Chicago, last time out. Now, they're back home and they've had a couple of days off between games. Having already lost both this season's meetings with the Hornets, they're going to be extremely hungry this evening. Note that both those games were at Charlotte and that Indiana lost by one point and three points. While the Hornets are off an impressive blowout against Houston, they're just 9-16 ATS the past 25 times that they were coming off a double-digit loss. The Pacers were slight favorites for the last meeting here at Indiana. Playing with revenge from an earlier loss against the Hornets, they won by 27. Expect them to get some payback again this evening. |
|||||||
12-27-21 | Jazz -6.5 v. Spurs | Top | 110-104 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
I'm playing on UTAH. The Spurs have performed pretty well when playing the second of b2b games recently. However, those games haven't come against the revenge-minded Jazz. Even without Mitchell, the Jazz are loaded. They haven't forgotten that the Spurs upset them, at Utah. Note that the Jazz are 3-0 SU/ATS the past three times that they attempted to avenge an earlier home loss. The last time that the Jazz played here was almost exactly one year ago. Laying six points, they won by 21. The Spurs may have won three straight but they're just 4-7 ATS (1-10 SU!) the past 11 times that they were on a 3-game winning streak. The Jazz outscore teams by a 114.5 to 102.5 margin on the road, best in the NBA. Expect them to avenge the earlier loss, picking up the cover along the way. |
|||||||
12-26-21 | Pacers v. Bulls -6 | Top | 105-113 | Win | 100 | 6 h 48 m | Show |
I'm playing on CHICAGO. The Pacers are just 1-5 ATS (2-4 SU) in divisional games. The lone ATS victory came against these same Bulls, last month. It was a 109-77 blowout. Considering that was their worst of the season, it's safe to say that the Bulls haven't forgotten. The Bulls have had some time off. In this case, its a good thing, as it has allowed them to get a number of players back. While last month's 109-77 blowout was here at Chicago, the Pacers are still 6-9 ATS (3-12 SU) on the road. The Bulls are still 9-5 ATS (10-4 SU) at home. Look for a highly motivated effort from the revenge-minded Bulls, as they improve to 5-3 ATS their last eight in the revenge role. |
|||||||
12-25-21 | Mavs v. Jazz -5 | Top | 116-120 | Loss | -110 | 256 h 42 m | Show |
I'm playing on UTAH. *This play was released on Dec. 15th. Since that time, with Doncic (and others) out, the line has climbed. I still like the Jazz at the current, much higher pointspread. Dallas is in the wrong place, at the wrong time. As of this writing, on Dec 15th, Doncic has missed a few games in a row for the Mavericks. It appears that he'll miss at least a few more. Whether or not, he's back for Christmas Day, remains to be seen. Either way, the Mavs are going to struggle. Utah has been outstanding but is still arguably flying under the radar. The Jazz sit on top of their division and (as of this writing) have outscored teams by an average of 11.1 points per game. That's right there with the Warriors (11.6) but no other team in the entire NBA is even close to that mark. Brooklyn is best in the East at only +3.5. As for the Mavs, they're at -0.1. They score 104.4 and allow 104.5. The Jazz lost their last visit to Dallas. However, they've beaten the Mavs by double-digits, each of the past two meetings here at Utah. Scores were 120-101 and 116-104. More of the same on Christmas ... Good luck and wishing everyone a safe and happy holiday season! |
|||||||
12-23-21 | Wolves v. Jazz -10.5 | Top | 116-128 | Win | 100 | 15 h 4 m | Show |
I'm playing on UTAH. This is a mismatch, at the best of times. The Jazz already won this season's earlier meeting by 32 points. These aren't normal times though and this "situation" is far from ideal, for the visitors. The T-Wolves are off a double-digit loss and they'll be without Anthony Edwards, Patrick Beverley, Josh Okogie, Taurean Prince, and Jarred Vanderbilt. Playing without those important players, at one of the toughest venues in the league, in their final game before Christmas, is going to be tough. The Jazz won't take them lightly though. They haven't forgotten that the Wolves beat them in both meetings here last season. They also recently lost two in a row, before bouncing back to win last game. So, they don't want to let down at all, prior to Saturday's showdown with the Mavericks. Note that Utah is 2-0 SU/ATS when playing with two day's rest in between games, 16-7 ATS (18-5 SU) it's last 23. The Jazz already outscore visiting teams by an average of 116.2 to 106.9. Again, this isn't a normal situation though. I see this one getting ugly. Jazz in a rout. |
|||||||
12-22-21 | Nuggets v. Thunder +6 | Top | 94-108 | Win | 100 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
I'm playing on OKC. In the current NBA environment, it's tough to know which players are going to be available. While things seemingly change by the hour, one team which has currently managed to stay pretty healthy is OKC. I won with the Thunder in their last game and I've been really impressed with their recent effort. They're quietly playing their best basketball of the season. Often overlooked, the second unit has been strong. The defense has been stingy. They've allowed 103 or fewer points in three of their last four games. Note that they're 11-3 ATS their last 14, after allowing 105 or fewer points. They're 36-23 ATS in that situation the past 2+ seasons. The Thunder's outright win, at Memphis, was preceded by a victory over the Clippers. They're 3-0 ATS their last three and 5-2 ATS their last seven. The Nuggets are well-rested. They haven't played since 12/17. However, that's not necessarily a good thing. In fact, they're 1-6 ATS (2-5 SU) the past seven times that they played with three or more day's rest. While Jokic is one of the best players in the world, his supporting cast is banged-up. The backcourt is particularly depleted. Last game, the Thunder were playing with 'revenge' from a beating that the Grizzlies had given them. They also haven't forgotten that the Nuggets beat them by 30, the last game here. The previous meeting between these teams had been decided by only two points. With the Thunder off three straight games decided by three or less, I'm expecting another close one tonight. Grab the points.
|
|||||||
12-20-21 | Thunder +8.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 102-99 | Win | 100 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
I'm playing on OKC. These teams faced each other on 12/2 and the Grizzlies absolutely embarrassed the Thunder. The final score was 152-79! That's the type of loss you don't forget and this is a great spot for OKC to get some revenge. That humbling blowout got the Thunder going, as they've been better ever since. They're off b2b wins and are 4-2 ATS their last six games. Last time out, they held the Clippers to just 103 points. Note that they're 12-8 ATS their last 20 in the 'revenge' role and 10-3 ATS the past 13 times that they held their previous opponent to 105 or fewer points. That win over the Clippers came on Saturday and the Thunder had yesterday off. They had two days off before the Clipper game, too. That's not the case for the Grizzlies. They're off a hard-fought loss against Portland. In addition to playing the second of b2b games, the Grizzlies will also be playing their third game in the past four days. Schedule in their favor, look for the revenge-minded Thunder to give their hosts all that they can handle. |
|||||||
12-18-21 | Warriors v. Raptors -8.5 | Top | 100-119 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
I'm playing on TORONTO. This line could easily be higher. Not only are the Warriors playing the second of b2b games, but they're reportedly only sending nine players to this game. That list of nine players doesn't include Curry, Wiggins, Green, Poole, Porter or Iguodala. While I'm sure that the remaining players will fight hard, they're going to be outmatched. The well-coached Raptors will know better than to take their short-handed guests lightly. The Raptors are playing well right now, as they're 5-1 ATS in December. Last time on this floor, they won by 23 points. Look for them to take advantage of this favorable situation, ultimately pulling away for another double-digit win. |
|||||||
12-17-21 | Hornets v. Blazers -2 | Top | 116-125 | Win | 100 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
I'm playing on PORTLAND. The Blazers are desperate to snap their skid. I expect their very best effort. I also believe that Charlotte is the perfect opponent for them to snap their skid against, as they've long dominated the Hornets here. The Hornets beat Portland in this season's earlier meeting. However, that was at Charlotte. The Hornets aren't as good on the road. Recent losses notwithstanding, the Blazers are stronger at home. That first meeting also saw Ball lead the Hornets with 27 points. He's missed games recently though and is currently questionable for this one though. Even if he does return, his conditioning may not be at 100%. Either way, the Blazers are going to be bringing it. They also lost at Charlotte last season. However, in the game here at Portland, they beat the Hornets by double-digits. Including that result, they're 13-4 ATS and 15-2 SU the past 17 meetings here. Enough's enough. Blazers bounce back. |
|||||||
12-13-21 | Suns v. Clippers +3.5 | Top | 95-111 | Win | 100 | 15 h 17 m | Show |
I'm playing on LA. The Clippers have had this game circled. Recall that the Suns eliminated them from the Western Conference Finals last year. This is the first meeting since. While neither team will be at full strength, Booker's absence figures to have the biggest impact. He went down Nov. 30th; the Suns are 1-3 ATS in December. Booker averaged 25.5 points, 5.8 rebounds and 4.7 assists in last year's six playoffs games vs. LA. The Suns may have closed out the series here. However, the Clippers are still 10-3 ATS the last 13 meetings here. Off three straight wins, the Clippers have been rounding into form. They have tomorrow off (Suns play at Portland) and they'll be bringing it tonight. Payback. |
|||||||
12-11-21 | Warriors v. 76ers +3.5 | Top | 93-102 | Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The Flyers were severely short-handed when they faced the Warriors earlier this season. They also were on the road. Yet, despite being on the road and playing without the likes of Harris, Simmons or Emibiid, the 76ers took a 61-52 lead into halftime. While they couldn't keep it up in the second half, things are different this time. This time, the 76ers are at home, where the crowd can keep them engergized the whole way. Simmons remains out but Harris and Embiid are back. Needless to say, that's a huge difference. Not only does Embiid dominate but he gets the other team in foul trouble. Kerr sais this of Embiid: Playing against Joel is like going into a time machine,” said Warriors coach Steve Kerr. "It's like playing against Patrick Ewing or Shaq or Hakeem Olajuwon, it's a low post-game. He will step out and shoot 3s and run some DHOs and he's good with that, but he's one of the few guys in the league now who can dominate a game from the low block and they've done a great job with their roster. Putting a lot of shooting around him ... Doc Rivers does a great job just making you guard everyone, putting you in tough spots where you have to make decisions, and leave some people open potentially. So a very difficult cover and we definitely have our hands full." The Warriors won here last season (No Harris or Simmons for Philly) but they're long had trouble here. They're just 3-11 ATS their last 14 visits here. While the talk will be about Curry chasing the record, Embiid and the 76'ers will take this one. |
|||||||
12-09-21 | Lakers -2.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 95-108 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
I'm playing on LA. This one sets up nicely for the Lakers. LA, which should have all of its big guns available, had yesterday off. The Grizzlies, on the other hand, are off a hard-fought and emotional loss against the Mavericks. It was physical and close the entire way. I call it "emotional" as there were numerous technicals called and Dillon Brooks got ejected. The Grizzlies weren't happy with the officiating and complained afterwards. While all that was going on, the Lakers were waiting for them. Last night's loss snapped the Grizzlies' season high 5-game winning streak and brought an end to their positive momentum. Remember, this team is still without Morant, its best player. Note that the Grizzlies lost by double-digits the last time that they played the second of b2b games. The Lakers beat Boston by 15 points last game. In their last road game, they beat Sacramento by 25. Their previous road game resulted in an 8-point win at Indiana. They're 27-15 ATS (31-11 SU) their last 42 road games, when the O/U line was 220 or higher. Expect them to improve on those stats this evening. |
|||||||
11-30-21 | Warriors v. Suns -2 | Top | 96-104 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
I'm playing on PHOENIX. The Warriors have been on a remarkable run at the betting window. I say it comes to an end this evening. The Suns have been every bit as hot as the Warriors, arguably hotter. Golden State is 7-0 its last seven and 18-2 on the season. Phoenix is 17-3. However, since the Suns started 1-3, they've now won 16 straight. Indeed, this is a true clash of titans. Both teams have been excellent, at both ends of the floor. However, if one looks closely, the Suns' home numbers are slightly better than the Warriors' road numbers. Not only do they score more points at home than the Warriors do on the road, but the Suns hit a higher percentage of their field goals (48.4% to 46%) while holding visiting teams to 43%. When on the road, the Warriors allow a 43.6% field goal percentage. The Suns lost their last road game against the Warriors but won big the last two meetings here at Phoenix. Scores were 120-98 and 114-93. Obviously, the Suns haven't needed Thompson. However, they've got some other players banged-up right now, too. I say homecourt proves the difference and the Suns keep on rolling for another day. |
|||||||
11-26-21 | Bucks v. Nuggets +3.5 | Top | 120-109 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
I'm playing on DENVER. Jokic has missed the past few games and is currently questionable for this one. As he was close to being ready for the last game, I'm hopeful that he'll be good to go tonight. However, even if he doesn't, I expect the Nuggets to bring their A game. A date with the defending champs is always a big deal. In this case, the Nuggets are also desperate to snap their losing streak. That's even more important, given the fact thay hit the road for a long trip, after this game. While I successfully backed the Bucks in their last game, that was at home against a tired Pistons team. Now, at a very difficult venue, they'll take on a rested Denver team. The Nuggets are 19-9 SU the past couple of seasons, when playing with two day's rest in between games. The Bucks, meanwhile, are 1-5 ATS in six games against teams from the West. They're just 27-44 ATS against Western Conf. teams the past couple of seasons. I'm grabbing the points. |