Sports Picks & Predictions

I'm playing on LA. This pointspread is higher than a field goal. Many of the previous playoff games have been decided on the game's final play; both these teams just won by three. That's going to make it tempting, for many, to back the underdog. That sentiment, in my opinion, is helping to keep the line lower than it easily could have been and providing us with value on the favorite. 

The Bengals are a fun team to watch and they deserve enormous credit for getting here. They've got a very good young coach, an excellent young kicker, a young QB who is playing well and who has a young superstar receiver to throw the ball to. 

Notice the word that I kept using to describe the Bengals? "Young." This is all new to them. Until now, they've played without feeling any pressure. Now, having two weeks to realize the huge stage that they'll be on will change that. 

While Burrow and the Bengals may feel that they'll be back here again in the future, Stafford, Donald and the Rams know that their time is now. They may not get another opportunity. 

I've often found that teams, players and coaches "need to lose, before they can win." I like that the Rams have "come close" in recent seasons. I like that Stafford had to toil for all those years in Detroit. Don't be surprised when he's awarded the SB MVP. 

As exciting as the Bengals are, in my opinion, the Rams are better on both sides of the ball. The numbers are close but the Rams score more points and they allow less. The Rams put up those superior numbers against an arguably much tougher schedule. While some may not be impressed by the fact that they had to comeback to beat the 49'ers, keep in mind that SF was a team which had their number. The NFC West, as whole, was extremely tough. Three teams had at least 11 wins. LA, SF and Arizona combined for 37 wins themselves; Seattle is always dangerous too. The Bengals AFC North, on the other hand, arguably had a down year. Cincinnati had 11 wins but no other team had more than nine. The Steelers weren't as tough as normal, the Ravens lost Lamar to injury. The Browns dealt with issues all season. The Bengals also benefited from facing teams like the Jets, Lions and Jaguars. The Rams non-div. slate included games against the likes of the Packers, Bucs and Colts.

Remember, the Rams made Kyler Murray look scared in their playoff opener. Next, they bloodied Brady en route to knocking off the defending SB champs. 

Of course, the fact that the game is being played at SoFi Stadium also figures to help the Rams. Being in their home city, they'll be able to avoid a lot of the hype and distractions that come along with the SB. The Rams are very well-coached and I believe that it's "their time." No more comebacks for the Bengals Rams roll.

I'm playing on LA. I really like how this one sets up for the Rams. I feel that they've exorcised some demons. I like that they dominated the Bucs, blew the lead and found a way to win. I feel that'll serve them well here. Of course, Jimmy G is no Tom Brady. The Rams are going to give him fits. The 49'ers are only here because of some fortunate kick blocks. They won't be so lucky this week though. Keep in mind that they're playing their fourth straight on the road. Forget what happened in the reg. season, the Rams are better on both sides of the ball. Expect them to prove it, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on GB. I love how this one sets up. The Packers are at home; a January game at Lambeau, against a team from California. The Packers had last week off to rest and prepare. The 49'ers are off a hard-fought win at Dallas. Now, they'll play another road game and will be doing so on a short week. Rodgers, one of the best quarterbacks in history, is on a mission. Garoppolo isn't on his level, at the best of times. However, he's banged-up. So are important players like Bosa and Warner. They're all expected to play. However, the short week won't make things any easier. The Packers, who won at SF earlier in the season, were the only team in the league to have a perfect home record. They won 37-10 last time that they played here, finishing with a 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS record here. This will be the 49'ers fourth road game in the past five weeks. Playing at the toughest venue in the league, expect it to catch up with them. Packers win by double-digits. 

I'm playing on KC. Of course, Big Ben didn't really mean it when he said: "The Steelers don't stand a chance ... " However, in my opinion, he's right. The Steelers really don't belong here. Rothlisberger has been a warrior and has done many great things. Often under-rated and under-valued, he's come through for me many times over the years, in betting and DFS. However, he's in over his head here. Tomlin is an excellent coach but there's only so much that he can do, when his team is outmatched on both sides of the ball. Mahomes and co. are still capable of scoring quickly, when needed. However, this year's team can take another team's will away with longer drives. That helps keep the defense fresher and allows them to play a lot better. They're going to get a lead and continue to build on it. The Chiefs are 7-2 ATS the past nine times that they played a home game with an O/U line in the 45.5 to 49 range. The Steelers are playing their second road game in two weeks. Last time that they played the second of b2b road games, they lost 41-10. Speaking of one-sided games, the Chiefs just beat the Steelers 36-10 here a few weeks ago. I'm expecting another blowout. 

I'm playing on LA. By the time this game kicks off, all the talk of a "tie" should have ended. Either way, I'm not worried about that. When asked about playing for the tie, SD coach Staley noted: "...I think we all respect the game and the NFL shield and the integrity of this game far too much to be complicit in something like that. This game matters too much to too many people, and we want to play our best and be proud of the result one way or another. We're going to do everything we can to go win this game, and play the way we're capable of playing." The Raiders deserve credit for fighting the whole way; it would have been easy to pack it in after Gruden's sudden departure. That said, I don't feel that they're going to be able to keep up with their high-powered guests. That was the case in the first meeting; LA won 28-14. Over their past five games, the Chargers have scored 41, 37, 28, 29 and 34 points. On the other hand, over their past five games, the Raiders have scored 23, 17, 16, 9 and 15 points. The Raiders are 3-7 ATS their last 10, when off two or more consec. wins. They're also 3-7 ATS their last 10, when attempting to avenge an earlier loss. Chargers roll. 

I'm playing on KSU. I successfully played on the Wildcats in their very first game of the season. It was an early, neutral site game vs. Stanford. I noted that I expected K-State to be "better on both sides of the ball this season." The Wildcats came through for me with a 24-7 win. Now, here they are, favored in the second last bowl game of the season. The line has clmbed for good reason. LSU has a lengthy list of players who will not be playing. K-State is (mostly) healthy and hungry. Football is huge in Wildcat country and the chance to take down a team like LSU, in a bowl, doesn't come around often. They'll never get a better opportunity. LSU is severely depleted on both sides of the ball. K-State running back Deuce Vaughn will have a big day against an LSU defense missing its top tacklers. Meanwhile, K-State QB Thompson is reportedly healthy. Look for him to finish his Wildcat career a winner, his team picking up the cover along the way. 

I'm playing on CINCINNATI. Needless to say, I have the utmost respect for Alabama. Saban and the Tide have come through for me numerous times over the years. I'm typically on them, more than against. That said, I believe that this Cincinnati team is better than many people have yet to realize. Asking Alabama, which has been tested multiple times, to lay double-digits is asking a lot. Yes, the Tide just beat up on Georgia. That was certainly impressive, as the Bulldogs had previously looked unstoppable. However, let's not forget that Bama only beat Auburn by two points, in its previous game. The game before that? The Tide only won by seven, against Arkansas. They beat up on a terrible team (New Mexico State) before that. No big deal. Before that, the Tide only won by six against LSU. Earlier, the Tide lost outright against Texas A&M and beat Florida, by only two. So, that's five games which were decided by seven or less. Arguably, the Tide were fortunate to even win four of those. Yet, as it was the most recent game, the majority of the betting public can't get the Georgia result out of their heads. Admittedly, the Bearcats schedule has been on the soft side. They've still gotten it done every single time. Remember, the Bearcats went on the road and beat Notre Dame by double-digits. No other team beat the Irish all year. Notre Dame had entered that game undefeated (obviously) and off a 41-13 beating of Wisconsin. The Bearcats outscored teams 39.2 to 16.1. You'll hear a lot of talk about the Bearcat secondary. That's for good reason. They've got a pair of potential first round picks. Note that Alabama star receiver Metchie III is out. That's a big deal. He was outstanding at getting open and took a lot of pressure off Alabama's other star receiver, Williams. The Tide may find a way to win but it's not going to be easy. Remember, Cinci only lost by three against Georgia, last New Year's Day. The Bulldogs were down double-digits entering the fourth quarter and won the game on a 53-yard fg as time expired. Look for the Bearcats, 5-0 ATS their last five as underdogs, to also give the Tide all they can handle, with a legit shot at shocking the world. 

I'm playing on WISCONSIN. It's true. The Badgers didn't want to be here. They'll admit that. In some cases, teams in their situation "don't show up." I don't expect that to be the case for this well-coached team though. The Badgers didn't want to be at the Duke Mayo Bowl last year either. Yet, they still won 42-28. Nor did Paul Chryst's team want to be at the Pinstripe Bowl in 2018. Yet, the Badgers took care of business with a 35-3 beatdown of Miami. (Overall, the Badgers are 5-1 in bowls under Chryst.) This evening, they've arguably got a bigger talent edge than they had for either of those games that they "didn't want to be at." That's because the Sun Devils have lost a lot, in terms of transfers and opt outs. The running game and offensive line is depleted. That's a problem, as the Sun Devils are a team which wants to run the ball. An even bigger problem is that Wisconsin is great at stopping the run. I expect ASU to have trouble moving the ball and for the Badgers to ultimately pull away for another double-digit win. 

I'm playing on NO. As you probably heard, or figured by this line, the Saints are dealing with Covid issues. At this time, few teams aren't. The Dolphins haven't been hit nearly as hard as NO but they, too, are dealing with some cases. Some teams have been folding. Others, however, have risen to the occasion. I expect the well-coached Saints to fall into the latter category. Book has the advantage of having Alvin Kamara in the backfield. Yes, the Dolphins are hot. Keep in mind that the Saints just blanked the defending world champs though. Also, don't forget that Miami is 2-4 away from home. Those wins came by an average of four points and were both against divisional opponents. They've lost all three road games against teams from outside the AFC East. The Saints are 10-4 ATS their last 14 as underdogs. Grab the points. 

I'm playing on BALL STATE. This line has climbed since its opener. I feel that's providing us with excellent value with the underdog. With a victory over Coastal Carolina, Georgia State is certainly worthy of respect. The Cardinals are no slouches either though. Led by an experienced QB, they've got a balanced offense. The defense wasn't a strength but got better down the stretch. While the MAC doesn't get much respect, we just saw Miami Ohio take care of business against North Texas. Prior to that, NIU played Coastal Carolina tough, losing by six. Keep in mind that these teams had a common opponent in Army. The Knights hammered Georgia State by a score of 43-10. Ball State, on the other hand, beat Army by double digits. The Cardinals are 5-3 their last eight games and two of the three losses were by seven or less.  They're 13-3 ATS their last 16 against teams with a winning record. Four of their final six games were decided by a TD or less. In what should be another close one, I'm grabbing the points.

I'm playing on FLORIDA. I liked this game but waited for this line to dip below seven. As of this writing, at several shops, it finally has. While I'm not surprised, I feel that's providing us with excellent value. I say that I'm not surprised as I've been listening to people call for the upset ever since this matchup was announced. Many seem to think that the Knights will be the more motivated team and that the Gators will go through the motions. Surely, the Knights are fired up at the chance to take down their big name instate 'rivals.' They've been wanting to face Florida for years. Sometimes, teams and people need to be careful what they wish for though. Contrary to popular belief, the Gators ARE going to be hungry. They don't want to be embarrassed by an instate team. This is their chance to show everyone that they're better than their record indicates. Remember, the Gators are battle-tested against the likes of Georgia and Alabama. They very nearly beat the Crimson Tide, in fact. While Miami wasn't on the schedule, Florida has beaten South Florida, Florida Atlantic and Florida State. The avg margin of victory was 15.33 points. I'm expecting another double-digit victory. 

I'm playing on SDSU. Regardless of what happens here, the Roadrunners have had a remarkable season. They can hold their heads high. I won with them in their last game, an impressive win over WKU. However, in their previous game, I successfully played against them. I feel that this will be another good spot to do so. Admittedly, the Aztecs didn't look too good in their last game. They were blown out by Utah State. That was just their second loss the entire season though. The Aztecs bounced back with a 7-point road win, after their previous loss. They're 5-1 SU and 4-1-1 ATS their last six, when off a conference loss. Remember, this SDSU team beat the likes of Utah (currently #10 in the country) and Boise State. When playing with more than a week's rest earlier this season, they won 31-7, delivering one of their more dominant efforts of the season. Note that the Aztecs are 8-3 ATS their last 11 against non-conference opponents. Unlike their opponents, the Aztecs cannot "hold their heads high" if they don't win this game. Arguably, anything less than a "W" here will make for a disappointing season. I say they bounce back and get the victory, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO. These teams last met exactly one year ago, on December 20th, 2020. The Bears were underdogs but won outright, by six points. I'm expecting history to repeat itself. While the Vikings have risen to the occasion against some of the league's better teams, they've quietly gone 0-7 ATS their last seven against teams with a losing record. They lost their last two road games (Detroit, SF) outright. Note that 12 of Minnesota's 13 games this season have been decided by "single-digits." The only time that the Vikings won by more than eight points was back in September, a home game against Seattle. While they came up short against GB and Arizona, a pair of tough teams, the Bears are still battling hard. Prior to those two losses, their previous three games had all been decided by a field goal, or less. While the Bears are dealing with some Covid issues, that's the way things are these days. The Vikes have problems of their own. As Chicago coach Nagy noted: "It's the next-man-up mentality, not just for the players, but for coaches, too, is the way that I look at it. In these types of moments, what you've got to do is try to stay really positive, take care of your body, stay together and realize that we're not the only ones right now in that." I'm expecting Nagy's troops to leave it all on the field and, in what should be a close game, I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on LOUISIANA LAFAYETTE. The Cajuns could easily be bigger favorites. They lost their opening game. Since then, they've reeled off 12 straight wins. That includes a pair of wins against Appalachian State, a team which defeated Marshall. The Thundering Herd got crushed 53-21 last game, one of five losses. The Cajuns are strong offensively but they also rank 18th in the country in terms of points allowed. They give up just 18 ppg. (Marshall ranks #41st and allows 23.) Of course, it should be noted that the game is being played in New Orleans, only a short drive from Lafayette. The line is relatively low, in part, because of Louisiana having a new coach for this game. However, I'm not so worried about that. This is a veteran team led by a veteran senior QB. They've had plenty of time for the new coach to get familiar with everything; the offense will remain the same. Off the loss to WKU, note that Marshall is just 1-5 ATS its last six, when off a conference loss. Expect Louisiana to punctuate its outstanding season with a win and cover. 

I'm playing on CLEVELAND. These teams just faced each other on 11/28, at Baltimore. Playing at home, the Ravens were able to grind out a 16-10 win. The Browns have some things going for them in this afternoon's rematch, starting with the venue. Playing at home makes a big difference for both teams. They're 4-2 at home compared to 2-4 on the road. Likewise, Baltimore is 5-1 at home but 3-3 (2-4 ATS) on the road. Its also important to mention that the Browns had last week off. The Ravens, meanwhile, were involved in a battle (20-19 loss) that came down to the final play, with rival Pittsburgh. We already saw that game take a toll on the Steelers, as they weren't very good at all on Thursday. I expect it to also have an effect on the Ravens. Note that Jackson was sacked seven times in the game. Also, note that the Ravens saw all-Pro cornerback Marlon Humphrey go down to injury. Meanwhile, Mayfield and the Browns will benefit from the extra week of preparation and recovery time. Like all teams, Cleveland is dealing with a number of injuries. That extra week off to recovery is huge. Last season's game between these teams was a wild (47-42) affair, won by the Ravens. This year, schedule in their favor, the Browns get some payback.

I'm playing on BUFFALO. At the beginning of the season, it looked like the Bills might run away with the division. The Patriots have found their way though. They enter this game on a 6-game winning streak. Currently, New England is 8-4 while Buffalo is 7-4. The teams will meet again in Week 16, at Foxboro. The Patriots have indeed fared well on the road. However, their road record includes wins against the Jets, Texans, Panthers and Falcons. All those teams are below .500 at home and overall. The Chargers are the only winning team that the Pats beat on the road. The Chargers are just 3-3 at home, too. So, yes, the Pats have played well on the road. However, they haven't faced a team with a home record as good as Buffalo's. While the Bills stumbled a couple of times in November, they closed the month strong. In addition to playing at home, I like that they've had some extra preparation time for this one. Over the past few seasons, the Pats are 4-6 SU/ATS when playing a game with a line in the -3 to +3 range. During that span, the Bills are 12-5 ATS when doing so. The Bills allowed a mere 190 yards in their last game. Look for them to be at their best tonight, improving to 10-1-2 ATS their last 13, after holding their previous opponent to 250 or fewer yards. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA. Obviously, I respect the champs. While I didn't touch last week's game, I won with the Bucs in their Monday night game against the Giants, two weeks ago. This Sunday, however, I feel that they're over-valued and I believe that they're walking into a hornet's nest. Admittedly, the Falcons have had a couple of duds. Their losses against New England and Dallas were ugly. However, they responded by winning their last game. I expect them to carry the positive momentum into Sunday. The 48-25 score suggests that the Bucs dominated the Falcons, in this season's first meeting. That wasn't exactly the case though. In fact, the Falcons had an edge in total yards and time of possession. The score was 28-25, entering the fourth quarter. Now, playing their second straight road game and with a big game against Buffalo on deck, the Bucs are laying double-digits on the road. They're 1-6 ATS as road favorites. That includes an 0-4 ATS record their last four on the road, when facing a team with a losing home record. This game is huge for the Falcons. Expect them to give the Bucs all they can handle for the full four quarters. 

I'm playing on SAN DIEGO STATE. These teams both deserve credit for getting here. Neither were expected to do so. That said, I feel that the Aztecs are the stronger team. The Aggies wouldn't be here if San Diego State hadn't beaten Boise State last week. After everything that happened to the program last year, just being here is already a big win for Utah State. Of course, they want to win. However, the season has already been a huge success. That's not the case for the Aztecs; they're hungry for more. Last season's game wasn't even close. The Aggies ran for 407 yards. That was one of the best (9th all-time) rushing efforts in school history. I expect the Aztecs to dominate on the ground again. While one could possibly overlook Utah State giving up 437 rushing yards to Air Force, this season's Aggies also gave up 362 rushing yards to lowly Wyoming. The Aggies did bounce back from the blowout loss to Wyoming but the win came against a bad New Mexico team. They're also 4-8 ATS the last 12 times that they were off a conference loss. While the Aggie defense is highly suspect, the Aztecs are dominant on that side of the ball. They allow just 17.3 ppg. That's the 7th best mark in the country. While they got off to a 3-0 start, the Aggies have since stumbled against tough competition, losing against Boise and BYU. All their wins, since the 3-0 start, have been against weak or mediocre teams. On the other hand, the Aztecs have beaten the likes of Utah. I'm expecting them to pull away for a double-digit win. 

I'm playing on UTSA. I successfully played against the Roadrunners in their game against UAB. They were favored in that game though and I felt that they were over-valued. I'm not convinced that Western Kentucky is any better than UAB. Yet, this time, the Roadrunners are getting points. I believe that's providing us with excellent value. UTSA won by six when these teams met at Western Kentucky, earlier in the season. That one was close the entire way. Both teams have played some other close ones, too. Like WKU's 2-point game with Indiana or UTSA's 3-point games against Memphis and UAB. Off this season's first setback, note that the Roadrunners are 8-1 ATS the past nine times that they were off a SU loss. They're also 6-1 ATS their last seven, after allowing more than 200 rushing yards and 4-0 ATS their last four, after throwing for less than 170 yards. The Roadrunners played in bad weather, on the road, last week. They were dealing with increasing pressure from being undefeated. As their coach said, they were probably a "little off." Three turnovers didn't help. Now, however, they're back home. To a certain extent, the pressure is off. With the line having climbed from its opener, I believe we're getting excellent value. Grab the points. 

I'm playing on NY. I successfully played against the Giants last game. However, that was a road game against the defending champs. Back home and stepping down in class, this one sets up a lot better for them. A look at the Giants' schedule shows that they've had to face some really tough teams. Prior to the Bucs, their last six games were against the Raiders, Chiefs, Panthers, Rams, Cowboys and Saints. To their credit, the Giants won three of those and they nearly beat the Chiefs, losing by only three. Prior to those six games, the Giants had a pair of losses, both by three or fewer points. So, last week notwithstanding, this team has been very competitive. Firing Jason Garrett should light a spark for the offense, too. While the Eagles have won a couple in a row, they're 2-4 ATS the past six times that they were off b2b SU victories. They're also 7-12 ATS as favorites, the past few seasons. The short week shouldn't both the Giants; they're 4-1 ATS the past five times that they were off a Monday night game. This is the first meeting of the season; these teams will play again Dec. 26th. In each of the past two seasons, the first meeting in this series has been very close. The first 2019 meeting went to OT. Then, last year's first meeting was decided by a single point. The Giants would go on to win by 10 points, in the game here at NY. Look for the Giants to bounce back with a big effort and grab the points.

I'm playing on OREGON. The Ducks stumbled against Utah but I expect them to bounce back big this afternoon. Not only are the Ducks looking to atone for last week - a win sets up a rematch with Utah - but they've got revenge on their minds. The Beavers upset them last year, at Corvalis. The Beavers have been tough to beat at home this year, too. However, they've only played three road games (Colorado, Cal, Washington State) since the start of October and they lost all three. They lost those three by an average of eight points and none of those venues/teams are as tough as the one they'll contend with today. While last year's game was close, the previous six weren't. All six of those were decided by "double-digits," the Ducks taking five of them. The Ducks have won the last two against the Beavers here by a combined score of 93-20. Expect another double-digit win. 

I'm playing on WASHINGTON. You often hear people state that "you can throw out the records" in these type of rivalry games. Personally, I don't necessarily subscribe to that theory; I never discount a team's record. However, in this case, I do indeed expect the team with the inferior record to prove victorious. The Huskies are argualy better than their record suggests. Their only loss of greater than 10 points was on the road, at Michigan. They had four losses of seven or less. So, they could easily have a better record. The Cougars have won just three of 12 road games the past couple of seasons and they've got an 0-2 ATS mark as road favorites, in those games. Sure, the Cougars are off an impressive 44-18 blowout of Arizona. The Wildcats aren't very good though and the Cougars are just 1-8 ATS the past nine times that they scored 40 or more points in their previous game. The Huskies have dominated the last six Apple Cup meetings, each win coming by double-digits. While I see this one being closer, in the end, I expect another Washington win. 

I'm playing on DALLAS. This line could easily be higher. True, the Cowboys are banged up at the receiver position. True, they lost 19-9 last week. They've still got weapons though and last week's loss was on the road, against the Chiefs. They're back home now; their last game here they won 43-3. The Raiders are a mess. They've lost their last three games by a combined score of 96-43. Remember, this is a team which lost its head coach. The Raiders also saw a top receiver get arrested. Then, they released their first round cornerback due to some online threats he made. Naturally, those type of things take a toll. While the Raiders still have a talented team, playing on a short week, here at Dallas, is not the place for them to "get healthy." Not only are the Cowboys 6-1 ATS their last seven home games but they're also been money when coming off a loss. Last Thanksgiving, the Cowboys had Andy Dalton at QB. They were playing with heavy hearts, as their strength and conditioning coordinator (Markus Paul) had passed away. Then, they lost a pair of starters on the game's first drive. They went on to get pounded 41-16. Things are much different this year and I expect a determined Dallas team to bounce back with a double-digit win. 

I'm playing on WESTERN MICHIGAN. The Huskies have the better record and are playing at home. Yet, the Broncos are favored. That's for good reason, in my opinion. While the Broncos have fallen on hard times recently, this is still one of the top teams in the MAC. They played road games at (10-1) Michigan and (9-2) Pittsburgh earlier and came away with a split in those games. Naturally, they'd still like to win. However, the Huskies have already clinched the conference title. On the other hand, the Broncos know a victory here would surely punch their ticket to a bowl game. (They're probably good already but its not a certainty.) They've obvioulsy done a great job but I'm still not sold on the Huskies. I say the Broncos take this one, picking up the cover along the way. 

I'm playing on TB. I won with the Giants when these teams met last November. At the time, I stated that I liked how the game set up for the Giants and that I felt the Bucs were getting overvalued. This one sets up differently. Many are suddenly now down on the defending champs. Back to back setbacks will do that. Keep in  mind that those losses were both on the road. The Bucs are 4-0 SU at home, 7-1 ATS their last eight. Indeed, they're been a different team at Raymond James Stadium. The last three times that they played here they won by scores of 38-3, 45-17 and 48-25. While they've been more competitive of late, the Giants are still a 3-6 team. They've lost by 14 or more points three times. Tampa averages 31 ppg while NY averages 19.9 ppg. Tampa averages 406.4 ypg. NY averages 334. Tampa's dealing with a number of injuries but the Giants' injury issues are arguably even worse. The Bucs are 6-2 ATS over the years, as home favorites in the -10.5 to -14 range. Expect them to improve on those stats with a statement blowout. 

I'm playing on UAB. With Oklahoma losing to Baylor, there are now only three undefeated teams remaining. Georgia is obviously the real deal. Cincinnati is also pretty strong. I'm not sold on the third team though. Unlike Georgia, UTSA has faced a very soft schedule. The Roadrunners toughest opponents were Illinois, Memphis and Western Kentucky. While the Roadrunners deserve credit for winning, all three of those games were close and they were fortunate to avoid any losses. They gave up more than 400 yards in all three of those games including a whopping 670 against WKU. With an early game at Georgia, UAB was never going to go undefeated. Still the Blazers are 7-3 SU/ATS and surely more "battle-tested" than their hosts. Throw out the Georgia loss and the Blazers are 5-0 on the road. All five wins came by at least a TD, three of them by more than 30 points. Last week's victory at Marshall was arguably as, or more, impressive than anything UTSA has done.The Blazers have beaten the Roadrunners each of the past four years and they held them to less than 300 yards of offense in each of them. I'll grab the points, as this one could be close, but I expect there to be one less undefeated team, when this one concludes.

I'm playing on WMU. After getting upset by the Eagles last season, the Broncos have a score to settle. They're much better on both sides of the ball and the only reason the line is reasonable is due to the fact that they're on the road. That said, note that the road team is 5-1 ATS the past six meetings. Also, note that the Eagles have lost their last two games here, each loss coming by at least seven points. Meanwhile, the Broncos check in off a 45-40 victory. Admittedly, the defense wasn't as stingy as it normally is. However, it should be mentioned that the Broncos are 10-2 ATS, when coming off a game where they allowed 280 or more passing yards. So, they tend to respond from a sub-par defensive effort with a big game. Expect them to do exactly that tonight. They'll put up a big number and ultimately the Eagles won't be able to keep up. 

I'm playing on STANFORD. For a team which has been playing such close games, the Beavers are laying a lot of points. The Beavers' last two games were losses of three and six points. Their last five games have all been decided by eight or less. Speaking of "close games," the last two meetings between these teams were both decided by a field goal. Stanford won both. In fact, the Cardinal have won 11 straight in the series. Oregon State just replaced its defensive coordinator as the defense has really struggled. The Beavers have allowed more than 30 points in each of their last four games. While the Cardinal have certainly disappointed, this is still a team which has wins against USC and Oregon. They're going to be hungry to get back on track and to prove they're better than they showed last game. I like that they're working with an extra day in betweem games. I'm expecting a close one and am grabbing the generous points. 

I'm playing on CINCINNATI. This is a mismatch and I expect it to get ugly. Undefeated on the season, the #5 ranked Bearcats want to make a statement that they're a national title contender. This is their chance to show the world how good they really are. Major advantages on both sides of the ball, I expect them to make the most of the opportunity. Off b2b double-digit losses, the Bulls have seen better days. They haven't faced an opponent as good as Cincinnati, yet they've lost by double-digits five times. Three of those losses came by greater than 21 points. Indeed, this is a USF team which is absolutely capable of getting blown out, again. The Bulls are going to have real trouble moving the ball and they won't be able to stop the Cincy ground game. While the Bearcats allow 14.9 ppg, the Bulls allow 34.3. Look for the Bearcats to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way, as USF falls to 1-5 ATS (0-6 SU) its last six, when playing a home game with an O/U line in the 56.5 to 63 range. 

I'm playing on NORTH CAROLINA. The Tar Heels are off a win over Wake Forest. Down double-digits, they dominated the fourth quarter. While some might expect a letdown, I believe that type of comeback victory will provide them with positive momentum for this game. The Panthers are having a strong season. However, the Tar Heels match up well against them. Also, note that Pittsburgh lost outright to Miami last time it was on this field. Getting points in this matchup is an attractive proposition as games between these teams tend to be to close. They've met eight times since 2009 and ALL eight of those games were decided by seven points or less. Pittsburgh won the most recent game in OT. The previous three meetings were decided by three, three and one points. Overall, UNC has covered five of the past seven meetings. With the line having climbed from its opener, I'm grabbing the points.

I'm playing on WESTERN MICHIGAN. While the line may seem large, this is a mismatch. WMU, 11-5-1 ATS its last 17 as a favorite in the 21.5 to 31 range, has big edges on both sides of the ball. I successfully played on the Zips when they beat Bowling Green. That was their only conference win of the season though. The rest of their MAC games have been losses; their only other victory came against Bryant. Blowout losses (60-10 and 59-7) against Ohio State and Auburn were expected. However, the Zips have also been blown out (45-10) by the likes of Buffalo. Now, they've just fired their coach, who had led them to a 3-24 record during his time there. Don't expect the Broncos to show them any mercy. They're better than their record suggests and they still need a victory to become bowl eligible. They won 58-13 at Akron last year and this one will also get ugly. 

I'm playing on the LA RAMS. While the Titans have been rolling, I expect the Rams to provide them with a dose of reality. This will always going to be a very tough game. When news broke Monday morning about Henry being out, it got much tougher. While I'm generally of the mind that one running back is pretty much the same as another, there are obvious exceptions. Henry is one of those. The Titans will miss him. Again, this was going to be a tough game even with him though. The Titans left it all on the field in a divisional battle last week. They're now playing their second straight on the road. Prior to that, they'd had huge games against the Chiefs and Bills. I expect it all to catch up with them. The Rams are off a relatively "relaxing" 38-22 blowout of Houston. Prior to that, they'd faced the Lions and Giants. While the Titans are weary from all their battles, after facing all those losing teams, the Rams are itching to finally have one. They're 7-3 ATS their last 10, when facing a team with a winning record, in the second half of the season. Statement win and cover for the Rams. 

I'm playing on MARYLAND. While I respect the Nittany Lions, I feel that this is a tough spot for them to be laying this many points on the road. For starters, the Nittany Lions have dropped three in a row. Also, the Terps can score points with the best of them. They average 29.5 ppg. Penn State averages 26.5 ppg. At home, the Terps average 36.2 ppg and 473 ypg. On the road, the Lions average 20 pgg and 326 ypg. True, Penn State may be thinking about revenge. Maryland scored a major upset in winning 35-19 at State College last year. That result should give the Terps confidence though. Also, Penn State is still probably thinking about what could have been, coming off three straight close losses - the first two by a field goal or less and last week by single digits against Ohio State. Those type of losses take a toll. On the other hand, Maryland snapped a losing streak of its own last week, earning a momentum building 38-35 victory vs. Indiana. I also like the fact that Penn State has a huge game vs. Michigan on deck. As badly as the Lions need this win, they'll still have next week's game in the back of their minds. While the Terps have struggled against top tier teams (Iowa, Ohio State) I like how this one sets up for them. Remember, this is arguably a better Maryland team then the one which beat the Lions on the road last year. Look for Penn State to fall to 2-8 ATS the past 10 times it was off a Big Ten loss. 

I'm playing on LOUISIANA. I backed the Cajuns on Saturday and said to expect a blowout. Laying -21 points, they won 45-0. Georgia State represents a tougher opponent. However, I still believe its a mismatch. The Cajuns are that strong. True, the Panthers played them tough last year. Louisiana only won 34-31. That was at Georgia State though. The Cajuns were also off one of the biggest wins in program history as they had just upset a Top 25 team (Iowa State) on the road, one of the biggest wins in school history. Off that "emotional" victory, the Cajuns were in a tough spot to go on the road. This one sets up much differently though. This time, instead of playing b2b road games, the Cajuns are off a comfortable blowout win, right here at home. Playing on a short week, that will serve them well. On the other hand, the Panthers are off an "emotional" road win against an instate rival. This time, they're the team playing b2b road games. Playing on a short week, in that situation, won't help them. The Cajuns are 7-3 ATS their last 10, as home favorites in the -10.5 to -14 range. With a chance to show the ESPN audience how strong they are, expect the Cajuns to improve on those stats tonight. 

I'm playing on KC. The Giants sure looked better than the Chiefs last week. With last week's win, they showed they aren't a joke. Yet, the Chiefs are favored for good reason. Kansas City has been an elite team for the past few seasons. After getting embarrassed last week, we'll see the best of the former champs. This is a chance to redeem themselves on National TV and to remind everyone of how good they can be. Indeed, the Giants are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. No strangers to the spotlight, the Chiefs are a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS their last four on Monday night. Winning here, on Monday night, was already going to be difficult enough, if healthy. The Giants are a banged-up team though, which makes things considerably more difficult. The last time that the Chiefs were off a loss, they bounced back with a 31-13 blowout win. After their previous loss, they bounced back with a 12-point win, at Philadelphia. I'm expecting them to pull away for another double-digit win on Monday night. 

I'm playing on the NY JETS. Last week's results are helping to provide us with excellent value. The Bengals beat up on Baltimore. The Jets got pounded by the Patriots. Those scores and the injury to Zach Wilson has led to a double-digit spread. While the Bengals are clearly better than they've been in the past, asking them to lay this many points, in this spot, is asking too much. I also played on the Jets in their last game here. The setup was somewhat similar. The Jets were off a blowout road loss and hosting a quality AFC opponent. In that case, the Jets were hosting the Titans, a team which was off a big win. As you're likely aware, the Titans have since beaten both the Chiefs and the Bills. Yet, the Jets beat them outright. Now, they're back home and getting even more points than they were for that game. Sure, White goes instead of Wilson. He got some playing time last week though and was 20 of 32 for 200+ yards. Coach Saleh said this of White: "He's a very calm man. He's a great communicator, he's got great command of the huddle. He's got great command of the offense. He understands progression reads and how to go through a progression, get the ball where it needs to go. He understands how to slide in the pocket to throw instead of slide in the pocket to run. He doesn't panic." I'm comfortable with him, or Flacco, running the offense. Importantly, I  believe that the Jets are catching Cincinnati at the right time. The Bengals will be playing their third straight road game. That's the only time that they'll do that this season. Off their big win against the hated Ravens, the Bengals could easily be patting themselves on the back a little. Also, they've got instate rival Cleveland on deck. In other words, it should be easy to look past the lowly Jets. While they may have won big last week, the Bengals have seen four of their seven games decided by a field goal. Prior to last week's loss, the Jets had seen two in a row decided by seven or less. I'm expecting another close one and am grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on TULSA. I love how this one sets up for the Golden Hurricane. While Tulsa is off a hard-fought close win, Navy is off a hard-fought close loss. This is a young Navy team and they really left it all on the field against a top team in Cincinnati. Having nearly pulled off the monumental upset, (the Midshipmen were 29 point underdogs) only to come up short, will take a toll this week. Playing on the road, on a short-week, doesn't make matters any easier on the Midshipmen. Note that the Midshipmen are winles on the road this season, most recently losing by 18, at Memphis. While Navy plays on a short week, Tulsa is off a bye. The Golden Hurricane are 6-1 ATS their last seven, when off a bye. They won by 13, at Navy last year. Schedule, venue and setup in their favor, expect an even bigger margin of victory on Friday night. 

I'm playing on WASHINGTON. The Packers have been playing well. However, I feel that this will prove to be a very difficult spot for them. They're off a divisional win and they've got a Thursday showdown - and potential playoff preview - with Arizona, on deck. Additionally, the Packers are dealing with a number of injuries. The only team that GB beat by more than 10 points this season was Detroit. Two wins have come by a field goal or less. Washington has played a very difficult schedule. Four of the Football Team's six games have come against the likes of the Chargers, Bills, Saints and Chiefs. Their only other two games were against the Falcons and the Giants. Washington won both of those games. Having taken on so many elite teams already, the FT isn't going to be intimidated here. While the Pack are certainly tough, Washington is 6-3-1 ATS its last 10 against teams with a winning record. The last three meetings have seen Washington go 2-1. The lone GB victory was by only five points. Expect Washington to give the Pack all they can handle again, with a great shot at the outright upset.

I'm playing on APPALACHIAN STATE. Needless to say, this is a huge game for both teams. Coastal Carolina wants to stay undefeated. Appalachian State wants respect and revenge. It's true that the Mountaineers have a couple of losses. In fact, I successfully played against them in their last game. However, it's also true that both of their losses came on the road. They're 3-0 here at home, 14-2 the past few seasons. Having lost at Conway last year, the Mountaineers are thrilled to get this matchup here at home. They hammered the Chanticleers 56-37 the last meeting here. They're also 4-1 ATS their last five as underdogs. I feel that these teams are quite evenly matched. Yes, the Chanticleers brought back a lot from last year's strong team. The same is true of the Mountaineers though. Speaking of 2020, last year's game had a line of -3, despite Coastal Carolina playing at home. That said, getting points at home is great value. In what should be a good team, I expect AT LEAST a cover for the revenge-minded Mountaineers. 

I'm playing on CLEVELAND. Arizona checks in with an perfect record. The Cardinals have indeed been playing well. Playing at home, the Browns are favored for good reason though. The Browns have only played two home games and they won both by double-digits. The 49'ers gave the Cards all they could handle last week. Arizona was at home and was against a team which was playing without its #1 QB. I had a big play on the 'under' so I was happy that the Cards did play excellent defense. The offense managed only 17 points though. Now, they're on the road against a far more formidable opponent. This will already be the Cards' fourth road game through the first six weeks. That's a very tough schedule. While they've obviously done a great job, I believe it'll catch up to them here. The Browns are already 2-0 ATS when the O/U line was 49.5 or higher. Going back further finds them at 5-2 ATS their last seven in that situation and 10-5 ATS their last 15. While both teams are dealing with some injuries, the cards are also dealing with some Covid issues. Look for the Browns to hand them their first loss, picking up the cover along the way. 

I'm playing on CLEMSON. The Tigers haven't been a good bet this year; they're 0-5 ATS thus far. I expect them to finally snap that streak Friday though as I love how this one sets up. First, understand that Clemson has far superior athletes across the board. The Tigers may have struggled to being the post-Lawrence era but they're still extremely talented. The defense is among the best in the country. Clemson bounced back from a loss to win its last game. It wasn't pretty but I like that the Tigers found a way to get the victory. They've since had a bye and are ready to make a statement in front of the national audience. Remember, this is a team and coach with a lot of pride. They don't like hearing all the talk about their reign being over. Note that Clemson is 5-1 ATS (6-0 SU) its last six off a bye. While the Tigers are playing with extra rest and preparation time, the Orange play on a short week. They're off their second straight very close loss, too. Those are the type of defeats that take a toll, particularly when a team has suffered two of them in a row. Last time the Tigers came here they won by a score of 41-7. I'm expecting another blowout. 

I'm playing on LOUISIANA LAFAYETTE on Tuesday. These are both solid teams and this should be a good game. I believe that the Rajin' Cajuns are providing outstanding value. Both teams have won the games which they were expected to win. Each is 4-1. Their losses came at Miami and at Texas. So, they were also expected. It's true that the Mountaineers played the Hurricanes closer than the Cajuns played the Longhorns. They still lost (a close one) though. It's also true that the Mountaineers are off the bigger win. That's fine with me though; those results have helped this line climb. The Cajuns still won a road game; I like the fact that they've learned to win the close ones. (Three of their four wins have been by single digits, two by three points or less.) Knowing how to win those close games will serve the Cajuns well in this one. For what it's worth, the last time that they were on this field, the Cajuns crushed Ohio by a score of 49-14. That's a bigger margin of victory than App. State has managed in a game this season. The last five meetings have all been quite close, each decided by 11 or less. After coming out on the wrong side of those games for several seasons in a row, the Cajuns finally broke through with a 3-point win in last year's game. I'm expecting another close one. Note that the line has climbed from its opener, providing additional value. While I believe that the Cajuns have a great shot at the outright win, I'm happy to grab the points

I'm playing on INDIANAPOLIS. The Colts got on track last week. Their first win under their belts, I expect them to carry the positive momentum into tonight's game. Despite their 1-3 start, the Colts are very much alive in the AFC South still. Houston and Jacksonville are a combined 1-9. That said, they really need to avoid falling too much further behind the 3-2 Titans. The Ravens beat the Colts by 14 last season. However, a look at the stats shows that the Colts were right there with them. In fact, the Colts had more first downs, more rushing yards and significantly more passing yards. Turnovers were the difference, including a 65-yard fumble recovery TD. The Colts had the lead at halftime though and I believe that they're fully capable of battling the Ravens the entire way tonight. Note that Wentz is getting healthier for the Colts and had a full week of practice. He was 24 of 32 last week with two TDs and zero interceptions. Meanwhile, the defense allowed only 13 first downs and 203 total yards, many of those coming in the fourth quarter. The line has climbed and I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on KENT STATE. The Golden Flashes had some lean years recently. So, many still think of them as a really bad team. The opposite is true of Buffalo. The Bulls have been really strong the past few seasons. So, many have an idea of them being a MAC powerhouse. This year is different though. The Bulls lost a lot of players from last year. Last year's coach left in the spring and a number of players followed him out the door, along with the entire coaching staff. That means that its all new players and new systems. Kent State, on the other hand, is highly experienced. Yet, because the Golden Flashes have played road games at Texas A&M, Iowa and Maryland, their stats make them look bad. The Bulls dropped 70 on the Golden Flashes in the last game of last season, setting a number of records along the way. Kent State has been waiting for Saturday's rematch ever since. The Golden Flashes are 8-1 ATS their last nine against teams with losing records. Expect them to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way here, putting up a big number en route to a double-digit win.

I'm playing on FIU. In a game where I expect the Panthers to win outright, getting points is a nice bonus.The Panthers are coming into this game extremely hungry. Butch Davis' Panthers lost in OT to Texas State back on 9/11. It was a hard-fought game that they could have won. Since then, their next three have come on the road. So, it's not surprising that they lost them. Charlotte hasn't won on the road either. Both the 49'ers road games have resulted in double-digit losses. This is the only time in this season's schedule where they'll be playing consecutive road games. The short week figures to favor the home team. Remember, the Panthers brought back 18 players from last year while Charlotte brought only back 13. Note that the 49'ers are banged up in their secondary, an area where they lost some key guys from last year. These teams met here in 2019. The Panthers won 48-23. This one will likely be a lot closer (FIU won each of the previous three by a TD or less including two 1-point wins) but I expect the end result to remain the same. Grab the points. 

I'm playing on NEW YORK. Many are probably expecting this one to be a rout. I believe that a banged-up Titans team is walking into a hornet's nest though. As Vrabel noted: "It's tough to go on the road and win, records don't mean anything. We have to show up ready to play ..." The Jets are playing better defense than many realize. Vrabel also added: "The Jets have one of the best defensive fronts we'll face this year." Tannehill added: "They get after the quarterback. They have size, they have quickness, they have strength. Those guys are coming to play." The Titans' lone road game was decided by a field goal. They're off a divisional win and they've got another divisional game on deck. Look for them to have their hands full the entire way, falling to 5-8 ATS their last 13, when off two or more consecutive wins. 

I'm playing on HAWAII. I respect the Bulldogs. However, they're laying a lot of points here and I expect them to have their hands full. Hawaii brought back 18 starters from last year's team. Last year's team won 34-19, at Fresno State. The line for that game was only +2.5. Now, playing at home with arguably a stronger team, the Warriors are getting considerably more points. Value. Fresno State also returned a ton of starters, as the Bulldogs brought back 19 from last year's team. They only beat UNLV by eight last week though, a game where they were laying -30 points. Kind of disturbing to give up 281 passing yards and 30 points to the Rebels. Note that the Bulldogs are 0-5 ATS the past five times that they allowed more than 280 passing yards in their previous game. Also, note that their last three games against Div 1 teams have all been decided by eight points or less. The Warriors are off a confidence-building 41-21 blowout win at New Mexico State. Before that, in their last game here, they played a good San Jose State team tough. They lost by only four points. Speaking of close games, Fresno's last visit here was decided on a field goal, 41-38, as time expired. I'm expecting another close one and am grabbing the generous points. 

I'm playing on MIAMI. Though I successfully backed them against Illinois, I'm not a big believer in this year's Cavaliers. Last week, they got hammered by Wake Forest. The Deacons have a good team this year but that result still showed that Virginia has a lot of work to do. That's b2b losses of 20 points. Things don't get any easier. Off a 69-0 victory, Miami is full of confidence. Having faced the likes of Alabama (and Michigan State) the Canes are battle tested. Miami won last year's meeting by five and won by eight the year before that. I see an even bigger margin of victory in this one. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. While the home team has had recent success in this series, I feel that the value lies with the visitors in this one. It's early but both teams are dealing with some significant injuries. That said, I'm not sold on the Dallas defense and I like what I'm seeing from the Eagles. They crushed the Falcons and nearly beat the 49'ers. Note that they're 8-4 ATS the past 12 times that they played a game with a line ranging from +3.5 to +9.5 points. The Cowboys, who have been dismal as favorites since last year, have seen each of their first two games decided by a field goal. In what should be another close one, I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on the NY GIANTS. Both these teams are 0-2. History tells us that 0-2 teams rarely make the playoffs. From 1990 to 2019, only 12% of 0-2 teams made the playoffs. Last season, 0-2 teams were 0-fer-11, in terms of making the playoffs. These teams were both among them. This year, with the addition of a 17th game and an expanded bracket, it's possible that an 0-2 team (or teams) will make it. That said, the Falcons know it probably won't be them. They played better than the final score indicated last week but still made mistakes and lost by 23 points. Their -49 point differential is the worst in the entire league. Knowing that the three teams ahead of them in the division are already a combined 5-1 figures to be disheartening. Playing in the NFC East, where every team already has a loss, the Giants have considerably more hope. Remember, Washington won the division with a 7-9 record last season. That extra optimism should serve them well here. Importantly, I believe that they match up very well against the Falcons. The Giants are averaging six yards per play, the Falcons are averaging 4.7 ypp. Note that Atlanta corner A.J. Terrell left the last game with a concussion, which is a big blow to the secondary. Homefield also works in New York's favor. Additionally, I like the fact that the Giants have had a couple of extra day's worth of rest and preparation time, due to playing on Thursday last week. With the Falcons just 4-13 ATS the past 17 times that they played a game with a line ranging from -3 to +3, I'm laying the short number with the home team. 

I'm playing on WASHINGTON. I had this game circled when the schedule came out. I've wanted to play it since the line came out but have waited patiently for it to come down. The reality is, however, that I'm expecting a convincing double-digit win for the Huskies. This year's team is loaded, stronger than many realize; they got on track in a big way last week. That 52-3 beating of Arkansas State gives them plenty of confidence and positive momentum. The Bears' lone victory came last week against Sacramento State - and they gave up more than 400 passing yards in the process. The previous week, they gave up 271 yards on the ground. Indeed, this is a porous Cal defense and Washington will put up a big number. Considering that the Huskies have allowed 13 and three points in their two games, I don't believe that the Bears will be able to keep up. The Bears have won b2b closes one in the series. Tonight, their vastly superior defense making the difference, the Huskies avenge those losses in blowout fashion. 

I'm playing on WAKE FOREST. I won with the Cavaliers in their blowout win over Illinois. However, UNC brought them back down to earth last week and I expect them to have their hands full again on Friday night. Wake Forest beat Virginia 40-23 last season. This year's team is even better, as the Deacons returned 20 starters from last year's team. While the Cavs were getting beaten up by the Tar Heels last week, the Deacons are off a confidence-building 35-14 beatdown of Florida State. Indeed, this team is better than many may yet realize. Note that WF is 5-1 ATS its last six, when coming off a SU victory. Including last year's victory, the Deacons are a perfect 6-0 ATS the past six meetings in the series. (They've won the last four meetings outright and the two before that were losses of one point and three points.) The Cavs will eventually snap that streak. Just not on Friday night. Grab the points. 

I'm playing on GB. As you probably saw, or heard, the Packers got hammered by the Saints in their opener. The Lions showed a little more life; they still lost but rallied from a big deficit to earn a backdoor cover. We know that the Packers have been the much better team for many years. That's very unlikely to change this season. The big question is, how will they react to the Week 1 beating? History suggests that they'll "bounce back big." The Packers were money off an ATS loss last season. They're also a perfect 5-0 ATS the last five times that they had scored 15 or fewer points in their previous game. After scoring 10 points against Tampa last October, the Pack bounced back and scored 35 the next game, a 35-20 blowout win at Houston. Prior to that, after the 49'ers held them to eight points, the Pack responded with a 31-13 destruction of the Giants. A few weeks earlier, they had managed only 11 points against the Chargers. They immediately bounced back with a win and cover at Carolina. You get the idea. The "rebuilding" Lions are the perfect opponent to "bounce back" against. These teams met here exactly one year ago, to the day. The Packers doubled Detroit in that 9/20/20 game, a 42-21 rout. History repeats itself tonight. 

I'm playing on TENNESSEE. (First Half) The Titans were embarrassed by their Week 1 effort. They're going to come out swinging right from the opening kickoff. Note that they're 7-0 SU the past seven times that they were off a double-digit loss; four of those wins were on the road, too. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are 1-5 ATS their last six, when off an ATS win. These teams have met three times since 2010. All three meetings were within a field goal at halftime. Scores were 9-7, 10-7 and 7-7. We're working with more than a field goal and I expect this one to also be close, at the break. 

I'm playing on MIAMI. At first glance, it may appear that the Spartans are off to a much better start than the Hurricanes. They're 2-0 SU/ATS while Miami is 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS. Those records aren't surprising though. The Spartans beat Northwestern but they were catching the Wildcats playing their first game, after losing most of their offense from last year. So, a nice win, but not entirely shocking. Their next game was against Youngstown State. So, winning that game was obviously expected. Miami has played much tougher competition. The Canes first game was vs Alabama. So, a loss wasn't that surprising. Next was Appalachian State. Though they didn't cover, the Canes did a good job of bouncing back from the opening day loss, to earn the SU win. Now, that first victory under their belts and fully recovered from the Bama beating, they'll be ready to put it all together. Even with the win at Northwestern, the Spartans are still just 3-8 ATS their last 11 as underdogs, 0-4 ATS as underdogs in the 3.5 to 10 range. While many seem to be jumping on the bandwagon, expect the Spartans to receive a reality check on Saturday afternoon. 

I'm playing on OHIO. Neither team is pleased with how its played so far. The Cajuns lost to Texas. No shame in that, except that they were blown out 38-18. They followed it up by only beating Nicholls by a field goal. Not good, when considering they were laying nearly four TDs. Ohio has been even worse. The Bobcats followed up a loss against Syracuse by losing outright to Duquesne. I'm of the mind that both teams are a lot better than they've shown and that both will be playing better on Thursday. That said, this is a lot of points for the Cajuns to be laying, considering they only just beat Nicholls by a field goal. Ohio has a veteran coach and a veteran team. The Bobcats are coming in desperate. Look for them to provide a much tougher test than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on V-TECH. The Tar Heels are tough on both sides of the ball and deserving of their national ranking. This is a very tough opening game though. Blacksburg has never been an easy place to play. Now, the fans are back and the Hokies should be much improved. While the offense will be good again, the Heels lost some serious firepower from last year.  Note that they're just 5-5 on the road under Brown. Last year, they lost at (3-6) Florida State and (5-5) Virginia. After missing out on a bowl game for the first time in 27 years, the Hokies are coming into this season with a chip in their shoulder. They're 4-2 ATS their last six getting points overall and 6-3 ATS their last nine, as underdogs in the 3.5 to 7 range. I say homefield proves significant and that the Heels give the Hokies all that they can handle. 

I'm playing on NEBRASKA. It sounds funny but a case can be made that this is one of Nebraska's most important games of the season. The Huskers absolutely need a positive start. Beating a team which embarrassed them last year is a great place to begin. Beating Brett Bielema, new coach of Illinois, will make it even sweeter. Nebraska coach Frost commented: "The one thing we need is momentum right now. There's so many good things that are happening in our program. These kids deserve a little wind under their wings, and that first game's going to be an opportunity for us against a Big Ten opponent. So that really is a big game." Frost has plenty of talent and now he's had plenty of time with his team. The cupboard isn't bare for Bielema either, thanks to his "super seniors." That said, its going to take some time. He can't be expected to work miracles overnight. The Huskers are 13-8 ATS their last 21, as road favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range. I see them settling the score from last year with a double-digit win to start the season. 

I'm playing on KC. Talk about a dream matchup. Brady, considered by many to be the greatest of all-time, against Mahomes, arguably the greatest right now. With all due respect to Brady, I do believe that Mahomes is "currently" the better QB. He plays at a different level and does things that other QBs simply can't do. He doesn't get phased either. Unflappable. You saw them turn the ball over and fall behind early against Buffalo in the Conf. Championship game. Mahomes didn't blink. He calmly led them back. Remember last year's playoffs? The Chiefs were behind by double-digits EVERY game. Yet, they went on to win the Super Bowl. That includes the game against the Texans where they down 24-0. They won 51-31. While I don't expect the Chiefs to fall behind by double-digits in this one, its a comfortable feeling knowing that Mahomes is never out of it. 

Though Arians got the better of a young Matt LaFleur in the NFC title game, I believe that Andy Reid gives the Chiefs a coaching advantage. I firmly believe that he's a better coach than he was earlier in his career. Here's an excerpt of what I said about Reid prior to last year's SB: "... Sometimes you need to lose, before you can win. Andy Reid has felt the pain of losing. Of coming so close to winning it all, only to come up short. Recall the 24-21 Super Bowl loss by Reid and the McNabb led Eagles team in 2005. McNabb was among the first to congratulate Reid, stating 'thats my coach, best I ever had.' Indeed, most of his players, past and present, love Reid. I believe he's a better coach than he used to be. That he's learned from his failures. The Chiefs, as a team, have had a small taste of the pain that Reid knows all too well. Recall how close they were to reaching the Super Bowl, only to come up short, last season. They've felt what its like to lose and they know how hard it is to get here. Now, they've taken the next step and I believe they're ready to seal the deal. With all due respect to McNabb, who was a great QB in his own right, Mahomes is playing a different level. He can calmly pick defenses apart, beating them short or long. If thats not there, he beats you with his legs. In four playoff games, he's got 11 TDs and 0 interceptions. We've seen the Chiefs show the ability to come back. They fell behind against the Titans last game, no problem. Down 24-0 against the Texans. Whatever. They rallied to crush them. Sure, the 49ers ran all over the Packers. Henry ran all over everyone though and the Chiefs stopped him. While I obvsiously, respect the 49er defense, I feel that its Andy Reid's time ..."

Mahomes outplayed Brady here back in November. I expect him to do so again, the Chiefs hoisting the trophy for the second straight year, while covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on KC. The Browns were able to beat up on the Steelers. However, the Chiefs are an entirely different animal. The Chiefs score more points than the Browns and they allow less. They're experienced in the playoffs, well coached and they're well-rested. Mahomes plays the game at another level. This will already be the Browns' fourth road game since 12/20. The Chiefs, on the other hand, have been home since Christmas. While the Browns are 1-5 ATS their last six against teams from the AFC West, the Chiefs are 5-1 ATS (6-0 SU) their last six against teams from the AFC North. The Chiefs are a perfect 5-0 SU the past five times that they were off a bye and they're 4-1 ATS their last five playoff games. Mahomes rarely makes mistakes and its going to take a near perfect game to beat him. I don't believe that the Browns are up for the task. KC wins by double-digits. 

I'm playing on BUFFALO. Both these teams are hungry to take the "next step." I believe that it'll be the Bills who do so. Lamar Jackson certainly does some special things on the field. However, he's also liable to make mistakes. More so, at least, than Josh Allen. Lamar completed 64% of his passes this season, while Allen completed 69% of his. While he didn't fare well against Baltimore last year, Allen has come a long way since then. Indeed, Allen threw for a whopping 4500+ yards with 37 TDs against 10 interceptions. Jackson had an almost identical number (nine) of INT's with roughly 1800 fewer yards and 11 less TD passes. All Allen did last week was to become the youngest QB in NFL history to complete 70% of his passes, in a playoff game, while throwing for more than 300 yards. Not only did he throw for 326 yards, he ran for another 54 and a TD. Yeah, he can do that, too. While it may not be talked about much, I believe that the schedule gives the Bills and advantage. This will be the Ravens' third straight road game and they're playing on a short week. The Bills play with one extra day in between games (they played Saturday last week, while Baltimore played Sunday) and they're playing their third straight at home. The Bills are 7-1 ATS their last eight, when the line ranged from -3 to +3. With Allen getting the better of Jackson, expect them to improve on those stats Saturday evening. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO. Its true that the Bears "backed into" the playoffs. I'm not concerned about that though. They're here. While the betting public isn't giving them a chance, the Bears believe that they belong. Remember, the Saints beat them by only three (in OT) in the regular season. The Bears will play without any pressure. This is a Chicago team and offensive line which protects its QB and which opens up holes for its running backs. Thats the type of formula that can often be successful in the playoffs. While they struggled to run the ball early, the Bears have rushed for more than 100 yards in six straight games. They've also allowed only one sack in their past three games. With an O/U line in the high 40s, note that Chicago is 4-1 ATS its past five, when playing a road game with an O/U line in the 45 to 49.5 range. Look for them to give the Saints all they can handle. 

I'm playing on the NEW YORK GIANTS. Only in 2020 would these teams still be alive for the playoffs. Yet, thats the situation. If Washington were to somehow lose on Sunday night, which is entirely possible, the winner of this game goes to the playoffs. I successfully played against the Giants in their very first game of the season, a loss against the Steelers. At the time, I stated the following: "....With quite a few years in the Patriots' organization and coming highly recommended from Belichick, its entirely possible that Joe Judge will go on to have a successful head coaching career. However, before that ever happens, I expect him to receive an unfriendly welcome to the head coaching fraternity by Mike Tomlin and the Steelers. Over the past few months, Judge has had to do a lot of things for the first time. He and the Giants very likely would have benefitted from the chance to get to know each other better over a few preseason games. Tomlin, on the other hand, knows his team well ..." Unsurprisingly, Judge and co. did go through some growing pains this season. However, fate has them still playing a meaningful game and now he's had plenty of time to get to know his team. While they had to face some tough teams down the stretch, the Giants are less than a month removed from winning outright at Seattle. Thats arguably a more impressive feat than anything Dallas has accomplished. Speaking of Dallas, the Cowboys are 0-4 ATS the past four times that they were road favorites of three or less. All four losses came outright. Though I like the Giants to also win this one outright, in what could be a close one, I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on TEXAS A&M. The SEC didn't fare too well at the betting window, in yesterday's egames. Auburn lost to Northwestern while Georgia nearly lost outright against Cincy. Then, Alabama failed to cover against the Irish. That may have some scratching their heads about why the SEC team is getting so much respect here. However, I'm projecting a double-digit win and believe that the Aggies could easily be favored by more. While the Tar Heels were certainly impressive in beating up on Miami, they also lost against Virginia, Florida State and Notre Dame. Texas A&M has just one loss all season and that came at Alabama. Since then, the Aggies have won seven straight, starting with Florida, all against SEC opposition. Their last six wins have ALL come by double-digits. Despite facing an SEC schedule, the Aggies allowed just 21.1 ppg compared to the Tar Heels' 28.4 ppg against an ACC schedule, one which didn't include a game against Clemson. Of course, it also needs to be mentioned that UNC has a number of players who chose to opt out of this game. Mack Brown said this of the missing players: "That's 4,000 yards worth of offense and our leading tackler on defense and two captains. This is new for me because I've never had a guy not play in a ball game ... " Texas A&M rolls. 

I'm playing on OHIO STATE. One can argue that the Buckeyes didn't deserve to be here, due to eligibilty reasons. However, there's no arguing the fact that they have the talent to be here. I like the way that the Buckeyes enter this one. The world against them - at least they can make a case for feeling that way - and off a non-cover, comeback win in the Big Ten championship game. All that sets them up well for this one; I like how they rallied to come back from a 10-6 halftime deficit to win 22-10. The comeback provides momentum and confidence, as does the ability to win a close game. The non-cover creates some additional line value, as this line could easily be less than a touchdown. QB Fields has had time for his thumb to recover and now he'll have one of his favorite receivers back, as Chris Olave missed the Northwestern game. Last year's game could have easily gone either way. The Buckeyes were up 16-0 but lost 29-23. Lawrence threw the game-winning TD with less than two minutes to go. Again, the Buckeyes were right there last year. They've been waiting and hoping for this rematch and I expect them to again give the Tigers all they can handle. Fields had this to say: "It's pretty self-explanatory that game hurt us a lot last year. So that has kind of been our whole motivation this offseason. Just getting the chance to play those guys again is a great opportunity ... " Ohio State's offensive lineman Wyatt Davis added: "It's everybody. I mean, we had a whole winter offseason program dedicated to this game. Clearly what we've seen and I'm sure all of you have seen this, we're going into this game not respected at all so that has a lot of motivations as well." Don't be surprised when this one comes down to the wire once again, the revenge-minded Buckeyes with an excellent shot at the outright win. 

I'm playing on BALL STATE. While I respect San Jose State, I don't believe it should be laying double-digits against an undervalued Ball State team. I don't think the Cardinals are being given nearly enough respect or enough credit for beating Buffalo. Keep in mind that the Bulls had been crushing every team they faced all season. That was a very good Buffalo team and Ball State won by double-digits. That victory was arguably more impressive than anything that the Spartans did. That's six straight wins. The Cards only loss was in their first game and that was by just seven points. San Jose State does deserve credit but also benefitted from a down year in the Mountain West. Keep in mind that the Spartans are still just 2-10 SU their last 12 against teams with a winning record. In what should be a close one, I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on NEW ENGLAND. Nearly every site, analyst or person that I've looked at is predicting a Buffalo blowout. Yes, the Bills have been the better team. Yes, the Patriots are dealing with injuries. Yes, the Pats will also be home for the playoffs. Their reign is over. I believe thats exactly what will make them so dangerous tonight though. This is still their house and this is one final chance to "end the era" on a high note, reminding everyone that it wasn't just Brady that made this team so good, for so long. While they've struggled on the road, the Pats have remained tough at home. They've only played two home games since the start of November. Those games were against Arizona and Baltimore, both capable opponents, and the Pats beat both of them. They've only been beaten by six points once here all season. Even while struggling, the Pats have still only given up 63 points their past four games, an average of less than 16 ppg. The earlier meeting was decided by three points. If the Bills do manage to win here, I certainly don't expect it to be "easy." Grab the points. 

I'm playing on GREEN BAY. Usually, the Packers are a "popular" team. However, the Titans are kind of the 'flavor of the week' these days, so that's allowed this line to come down lower than it normally would be. Indeed, with the Pack off b2b ATS losses and the Titans off b2b ATS wins, we're getting excellent value with the Rodgers and co. While the Pack may not have covered, they still won each of their last two games by seven or more points. In fact, 10 of their 11 wins have come by at least seven points and ALL 11 of them have come by a minimum of four points. (Three of Tennessee's four losses came by six or more and ALL of them came by at least a field goal.) While Henry is a load, the Packers run defense is improved from last season. I expect them to do a relatively good job at slowing down the Titans' big back. On the other hand, Rodgers should have a field day against a Titan pass defense that ranks among the worst in the league. The Pack, who are trying to lock down the #1 seed in the NFC, are 19-4 SU at home the past 2+ seasons. Expect them to improve on those stats, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on WESTERN KENTUCKY in the Lending Tree Bowl. The Panthers got the better of the Hilltoppers when these teams met in a bowl game in 2017. Three years later, I expect the Hilltoppers to settle the score. While the Panthers have the edge on offense, the Hilltoppers have been much better on defense. I like the momentum that WKU brings into this game; the Hilltoppers have won three straight, winning by a bigger margin each time out. They've only got one loss by more than four points in the past two months and that came at BYU, which was undefeated at the time. The Panthers have been involved in five games decided by seven or fewer points. Likewise, the Hilltoppers have seen five of their games decided by seven or less. The Hilltoppers are 5-1 ATS the past six times that they were underdogs in the 3.5 to 10 range. The Hilltoppers are happy to be here and they're coming in hungry. While I like the outright win, in what should be a close one, I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. While their chances of making the playoffs are indeed slim, the Vikings aren't mathematically elmiminated yet. (They need to win both their games and get some help.) I expect their very best effort on Christmas Day. The Vikings have an offense capable of staying with the Saints. They've scored at least 27 points in four of their past five games. The Saints only recent win by more than five points came against a Denver team which was missing all of its quarterbacks. The Saints are just 2-5 ATS the past seven times that they were favored in the 3.5 to 9.5 range. They're also only 5-11 ATS the past 16 times that they played a home game with an O/U line of 49.5 or greater. The Vikings are 5-1 ATS the past six times that they were off a division loss and 6-0 ATS the past six times that they were off b2b losses. Grab the points.

I'm playing on CINCINNATI. The Bearcats have had a great season and I expect them to keep on rolling Saturday. With the exception of a 3-point win against UCF, Cincy beat every other opponent by a minimum of 14 points. It should be noted that that the game against UCF was on the road. This game, however, will be played at Nippert Stadium. The last three teams (ECU, Houston and Memphis) that have visited here have lost by scores of 55-17, 38-10 and 49-10. Going back further finds the Bearcats at 18-0 SU and 12-6 ATS their last 18 at home. While Tulsa allows 19.9 ppg, Cincy allows just 15 ppg. On the other side of the ball, the Bearcats' advantage is even bigger. Tulsa averages 27.7 ppg. Cincinnati averages 40.9. While I expect Tulsa to have trouble scoring, no team has kept Cincy to less than 36 points for more than two months. Bearcats roll. 

I'm playing on DENVER. The Bills are having a great season and they're off an impressive win over the Steelers, on Sunday night. Everyone saw that nationally televised game. That's led to many jumping on the Buffalo bandwagon which, in turn, has created excellent value with the Broncos. The big win over Buffalo also may well have the Bills patting themselves on the back a bit. Now, they play a road game in altitude, on a short week. Its also important to note that Bills have a game against New England on deck. Last week, when playing against the Saints in their loss against the Eagles, I noted that the Saints had a huge game against the Chiefs on deck. For them, there was no bigger possible game to look ahead to then a date with the defending world champs. For Buffalo, however, a date with the 11-time defending AFC East champs is arguably an even bigger game to look ahead to. Even though the Patriot reign on top of the division will come to an end, a game against them is still a big deal for Buffalo. Yes, the Bills can clinch the AFC East with a win (or Miami loss) this week. However, there's still plenty of time for that, so there shouldn't be any absolute urgency. As for the Broncos, they're off one of their best games of the season, a 32-27 win at Carolina. Before that, they lost by only six, at KC. The last time that Lock started a home game, the Broncos beat Miami. Speaking of Lock, he was 21 of 27 last week, throwing for four TDs and 0 INTs. His 149.5 passer rating was third best (only Elway and Manning were better) in franchise history. With a chance to play a home game in front of a National audience and not wanting the Bills to clinch a playoff berth in their building, I say that Lock and the Broncos rise to the occasion and give their guests all that they can handle. 

I'm playing on BALTIMORE. The Browns have definitely gotten better since the Ravens hammered them earlier in the season. However, I don't feel that they're improved enough to take the next step and to beat the Ravens. When healthy, Baltimore, has handled teams not named KC or Pittsburgh. I mention that as the Ravens are now mostly healthy after having been hit hard by Covid-restrictions. Speaking of "missing players," you won't hear much about it, but the Browns will be without their top cornerback (Ward) for this one.  I believe that his absence hurts them. The Ravens were 7-1 in the final four weeks of the reg. season the past two seasons. Expect them to improve on those stats Monday night, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The Saints have been on quite the run. I believe that it comes to an end Sunday though. The Eagles are a dangerous and desperate team. Amazingly, they're still alive. But this is absolutely must win time. The Rams were the only team to beat the Eagles by more than six points, at Philadelphia, all season. And that was way back in September. This, despite the Eagles hosting the likes of Seattle and Baltimore. The Saints are playing their third straight on the road, something you don't see too often. They've also got a showdown with the defending Super Bowl champs on deck. So, if there's ever a time to look ahead to a game, this is it. The Eagles have been great in the final four weeks of the regular season two years in a row, winning seven of those eight games. Expect them to give their potentially road-weary guests all that they can handle with a great shot at the outright upset. 

I'm playing on V-TECH. Virginia is rolling. Virginia Tech is reeling. No brainer on the visitors, right? Not in my opinion. A closer look at the Hokies' 4-game skid shows that the first was an unlikely 3-point loss against Liberty. That was followed by a 1-point loss against Miami. Each of those games absolutely could have gone either way. Getting stuck on the wrong side of both was tough to take though and the Hokies delivered a dud at Pittsburgh. Not a great effort but understandable, all the same. That was followed by a loss against Clemson. So, there's no shame in that. In other words, I'm not ready to write the Hokies off due their current slide. Coach Fuente summed it up by saying: " ... we've lost two heartbreakers then didn't play very well on the road and came home against the No. 3 team in the country and right in the middle of the game had some of the weirdest events I've ever seen occur. There's a little bit of context .... The bottom line is that I love what we are teaching, what they are retaining and where we are going." Beating their bitter instate rival won't get them a winning record but it will sure go a long way in getting rid of the bad taste in their mouths. With a bowl game lookling unlikely, this game is even more important. The Cavs haven't played a road game since way back on 10/24, when they lost by five, at Miami. In fact, a closer look shows that Virginia is 0-3 on the road this season, getting outscored by a combined score of 100-60. Speaking of road woes, the Cavs haven't won here since 1998. I expect a highly motivated V-Tech team to deliver its very best effort, continuing its homefield dominance in this series while covering the small number along the way.  

I'm playing on NEW YORK. I know some of you are probably thinking, "The Jets?" Yes, I know, we're talking about the Jets. I know that picking a winless team for my "GOY" won't make me popular. I'm not worried about that though. Only about cashing a ticket and I love how this one sets up for the home team. The Jets defense is playing hard. The offense, admittedly, has struggled. However, the pieces are back and I believe that this will be a defense that they will have success against. Keep in mind that the Raiders are off a 43-6 loss.. They've allowed 78 points the past two games. Gruden knows the Jets will be tough. He had this to say Monday, after the Sunday beating by the Falcons: "...We're still really young. We are missing some key players. I'm not going to worry about anything down the road except the Jets. And if you watched the Jets play yesterday, they're a handful. They're going to be hard to move the ball on. Gregg Williams and this defense give people problems, we've got to take better care of the ball, we've got to play better collectively on defense and we've got to make some timely plays in the kicking game. This will be a fistfight no doubt about it. I've got a lot of respect for the way the Jets are competing ..." The Jets defense was especially stingy in the second half last week, forcing two turnovers and three punts. Darnold, now with all his receivers, has a game under his belt. He's highly motivated for a better performance and I believe that the team is highly motivated for that first victory. I think they're catching the Raiders at the right time and I expect them to take this game down to the wire with an excellent shot at getting that elusive first win. 

I'm playing on APP STATE. This is a big game between two good teams. While the Cajuns have the higher ranking, I believe that the Mountaineers are favored for good reason. After losing to Coastal Carolina, the Mountaineers didn't hang their heads. They went out and hammered Troy. Now, they get a chance to redeem themselves by beating a ranked team. I expect them to make the most of the opportunity. The Mountaineers have dominated this series in recent seasons. I believe that the Mountaineers have the better defense and that will ultimately lead to them contininuing their series dominance. Coastal Carolina was the only team to score more than 21 points against them. Each of the past five, besides Coastal Carolina, has scored 17 or less. While the Cajuns may get more than that, they won't get enough. Lay the small number. 

I'm playing on UTAH STATE. I won with the Aggies in their last game, a 41-27 win over New Mexico. That was a huge win for them, as it was their first of the season. Now, with that monkey off their back, I expect the Aggies to carry the positive momentum into this evening's game. With last week's win, Utah State is now 11-4 SU and 10-5 ATS its past 15 home games. During that span, Air Force is just 5-8 SU on the road. In this season's lone road game, the Falcons managed only six points, a 17-6 loss at SJ State. While the Falcons did beat up on New Mexico last time out, that was awhile ago now; they haven't been playing much, due to covid cancellations. I expect that to work against them here, as the suddenly confident Aggies are coming "ready to play." Grab the points. 

I'm playing on DENVER. The Broncos are obviously in a tough spot with their QB situation. That said, they're off a momentum-building win, their defense and running game getting it done. The Denver secondary is very good and they were getting plenty of pressure on the QB last week. They also held the Dolphins to just 56 yards on the ground. They won't have to contend with Brees and I believe that they could easily catch the Saints looking past them. New Orleans is just 2-4 ATS the past six times it was favored in the 3.5 to 9.5 range. Grab the points and expect the Broncos to come ready to play. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. With Bridgewater expected to play against his former team, this line came down from its opener. I believe thats providing plenty of value with what I believe to be the superior team. Note that the Vikings are a profitable 30-17-1 ATS (34-14 SU) over the years, as a home favorite of three or less. I believe this line move is an over-reaction to last week's results. Yes, the Panthers looked good. However, their win came against the Lions. Before that, they'd lost four straight. Likewise, before last week's loss, the Vikings had won three straight. The Vikings convert very well when they get into the red zone. They also average more yards per play than any team in the league. Additionally, they've arguably got more to play for. Lay the small number and expect the Panthers to be unable to keep up. 

I'm playing on OREGON. They no longer officially call this game the "Civil War." That title was dropped several months ago. There's still no love lost between the two teams though and there's still a big class difference between them. Oregon is better on both sides of the ball. I like that the Ducks were tested by UCLA last week and how they responded and came through with a victory. Off that "close call," I believe they'll follow it up with a blowout win. The Ducks, who already covered at Washington State, are 6-2 ATS the past 2+ seasons, as road favorites. Their last visit here, almost exactly two years ago, saw Oregon, which was laying 18 points, win by 40, a 55-15 destruction. Including that result, the Beavers are just 4-9-1 ATS their last 14 home games, 0-3 ATS when listed as home underdogs in the 10.5 to 14 range. Oregon coach Mario Cristobal said this of last week's win: "We were a little bit out of sync, and like we told those guys, ‘Look, when you win, you don’t apologize for winning, you don’t get down for winning, you just recognize where you got to get better.' And we weren’t at our very best, and we know that we have to improve certain things." Expect the Ducks to "get better" and for them to deliver their biggest blowout of the season, thus far. 

I'm playing on TAMPA. Both these teams came through for me in their last game. I won with the Rams when they beat the Seahawks and I won with the Bucs when they beat Carolina. So, I'm aware that both looked very good. Playing at home, I expect the Bucs to be the team which keeps on rolling this week. While I really respect the Rams, I believe that they're at the wrong place, at the wrong time. Yes, Tampa bounced back with a big win last week. However, that wasn't on "primetime." The Bucs still have a bad taste in their mouths after getting smacked around by the Saints on Sunday night football. I did successfully play against Tampa in Brady's MNF debut as a Buc. That was against the Giants though and it was a case of the situation favoring NY and the Bucs laying too many points. Then, there was the Week 5 game where Brady forgot what down it was at the end of the game. My point is, that the Bucs haven't exactly shined in primetime and that I expect that to be a motivating factor for them in this one. This is a chance to make people forget, a convincing win tonight and everything is forgotten. Of course, they're also chasing New Orleans in the division and can't afford to fall further behind. The Bucs are 4-1-1 ATS (5-1 SU) their last six, as favorites in the -3.5 to -9.5 range. I really liked the way that they bounced last week and I expect them to follow it up with a "statement win" tonight. 

I'm playing on DENVER. Off a few big wins and with a couple of winnable games (Jets, Bengals) on deck, I believe that this will prove to be a letdown spot for the Dolphins. Yes, they've been winning but the stats show that they've been somewhat fortunate to be doing so. I don't think they're ready to go on the road and defeat what figures to be a desperate Denver team. Not only that, the Dolphins are being asked to lay points. Its possible that Drew Lock's ribs will force him to the bench. That's not necessarily a bad thing though, as the offense could use a spark. You may recall Rypien leading the Broncos to a win on Thursday night football earlier. A look at the yards for/against for both teams shows the gap isn't nearly what the records suggest. Not only does Denver average more passing yards than Miami, the Broncos also average more rushing yards. Additionally, the Broncos allow fewer total yards on defense. I'll grab the points but I'm expecting the outright win. 

I'm playing on UCF. The Bearcats are having a great season and won't be easy to beat. However, I believe that the Knights are peaking at the right time and feel that they have the offense to do so. Indeed, UCF leads the nation with 619 yards and 44 points per game. The UCF offensive line has been playing great and will be the first team this season capable of handling the physicality of Cincy's defensive front. UCF took a bit to get going, understandable with all the pandemic stuff going on. The Knights are firing on all cylinders now though. UCF tackle Ed Collins noted: "The bye week after the Tulsa loss, we came together as a unit pretty good ..." Last year's game at Cincy was decided by just three points. The Knights won the previous three meetings, all by double-digits. Grab the points. 

I'm playing on SEATTLE. While I've played against the Seahawks in each of their last two games, I like them to bounce back here. For the first time in awhile, the Hawks aren't coming off a flight through different time zones. I've pointed out that they've been going back and forth from from coast to coast for awhile now. While it may be a short week, they're finally staying in the Pacific time zone for consecutive games. Speaking of the short week, without much time in between games, I feel that homefield will provide Seattle with a big edge. Note that Arizona has played three straight at home and before that it played road games against the Jets and Cowboys, a pair of teams who are a combined 2-16. Their previous road game was at Carolina and the Cards lost by double-digits. Obviously, this is a much tougher venue. The Hawks are 6-1 SU and 4-1-2 ATS their past seven, when off a division loss. During that span, they were also 3-0 SU and 2-0-1 ATS when off b2b SU losses. Wilson and co. haven't forgotten the Cards' comeback against them last month. Tonight, they get some payback, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO. Talk about no respect. The Bears have the better record. They're playing at home. They've had their way with the Vikes. Cousins never wins on MNF. Yet, the Vikes are favored? Some will suspect a "trap" and think the Vikes are the way to go. There's no trap though. Its just a matter of the books needing to balance the action and they know that the betting public is really down on Chicago. I've had success both playing on and playing against the Bears. In this case, that public sentiment has provided us with excellent value and I believe they're absolutely in a "play on" spot. Sure, Cousins wants to finally win a Monday night game. However, the Bears want the game every bit as much and they typically do a great job in shutting down Cousins. The Bears have also done a great job at slowing down Cook. Indeed, Chicago is 4-0 its past four against the Vikings, 3-0 since Cousins took over. The Vikes have managed a mere 29 points in those three games combined, Cook averaging only 29 ypg. Cousins will eventually get his MNF win. Just not this week. Grab the points. 

I'm playing on DENVER for the first half. The Broncos have gotten off to some slow starts and that's led to them having to play from behind. (In three straight weeks, they've been behind by double-digits by halftime.) They're determined to avoid that happening again. QB Lock commented: ''There's a lot of football left and we just have to hit our stride earlier in games.'' The Broncos secondary figures to get a boost as starting corners Bouye and Callahan are expected back. The Raiders are 0-4 ATS the past four times that they were off two or more consecutive wins, 1-4 ATS the past five times that they were off a divisional win. Expect them to have their hands full right from the get go and don't be surprised when the Broncos start fast and take a lead into the lockerroom. 

I'm playing on SDSU. This is already Hawaii's third road game in the past four weeks. They got crushed (at Wyoming) last time away from the island and this figures to be an even tougher venue. I expect the travel to catch up with them. Off last week's loss, the Aztecs are going to be in an angry mood. Last week's loss notwithstanding, the Aztecs have a very stingy defense. Expect Hawaii, which managed only seven points last time on the road, to have trouble finding the end zone. The Aztecs have additional motivation in this one as Hawaii has actually beaten them in b2b seasons, including a 31-30 upset, as double-digit underdogs, last time here. Its payback time today, the Aztecs keeping the pedal to the metal the entire way. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. Coach P.J. Fleck has turned the Gophers around, since his arrival in 2017. However, he has yet to beat Iowa. Even last year's team, which went 11-2, lost to the Hawkeyes. Needless to say, Fleck and the Gophers are extremely motivated to finally get a win in this series. They've got the offense to do it and they're playing at home. Last year's game was at Iowa and was decided by just four points. Yes, the Hawkeyes looked really good in beating up on Michigan State. However, they also lost by four points (at Purdue) in their lone road game. Additionally, Northwestern beat them by a point. Minnesota, young but talented, is getting better each time out. The Gophers are off a big win of their own and have scored more than 40 in b2b games. I expect Fleck to have them ready to play and look for them to give their guests all that they can handle, taking the game down to the wire and earning AT LEAST the cover. 

I'm playing on BALL STATE. The Cardinals lost a tough one, at Miami Ohio, in their opener. While they would have liked to have it, they can afford that loss. They can't afford to lose this one though. That Cardinals improved last year and narrowly missed a bowl game. They lost each of their final three games by four or less to finish at 5-7. Thats a bad taste that they're still trying to get rid of. This is the perfect opportunity to do just that. The Eagles earned a somewhat fortunate cover (SU loss) in their opener. However, they're one of the weaker teams in the conference and now they're playing their second straight on the road. Ball State believes it can take the next step this season. If thats to be the case, the Cardinals need to take care of business on Wednesday. The Cardinals can and wil score a lot of points. Ultimately, I don't expect the Eagles to be able to keep up. 

I'm playing on ARIZONA. The Dolphins are off an "impressive" win over the Rams, the "Tagovailo era" starting on the right foot. However, that was at home and they were catching LA having gone back and forth across the country and playing its third road game in four weeks. Also, while earning a victory was indeed impressive, a look at the stats shows that the Miami offense actually managed only 145 total yards. That was the fewest number of yards, by a team which won by double-digits, since way back in 2006. On the other side, the Dolphins gave up 471 yards. No, thats not a misprint. The Dolphins were outgained by a 471 to 145 margin. Needless to say, thats not a recipe for success. Off three straight wins, most recently a big comeback win against Seattle, Arizona is playing great. The Cards know they can't afford to take their foot off the gast though. Not in the ultra competitive NFC West. Prior to the narrow win over the previously undefeated Seahawks, Arizona had won its previous two games by a combined score of 68-20. The Dolphins are 1-6 ATS (0-7 SU) the past seven times that they were road underdogs in the 3.5 to 7 range. Lay the small number and expect the superior team to pull away for a double-digit win.

I'm playing on TENNESSEE. The Razorbacks have arguably overachieved. However, they're still one of the weaker teams in the conference. I feel that the Vols have an edge in talent. I also really like the fact that they had last week off. They'd had a tough stretch of games, so the bye absolutely came at the right time. Its given them a chance to regroup and to focus on taking care of business in this winnable game. While the Vols are slight favorites, as of this writing, its a small enough line that a SU win should also equal an ATS win. Thats noteworthy as Tennessee is 52-11 SU as a road favorite over the years. This season, the only time that they were favored on the road, the Vols took care of business by winning (and covering) at South Carolina. While Pittman is in his first season with Arkansas, this is year 3 of the "Pruitt era" in Tennessee. If the Vols want to get to .500, this is a game they absolutely need to win. The Vols are 4-1 SU the last five under Pruitt, after losing their previous two games. (The loss came at Alabama.) Desperate for a victory, expect them to bounce back. 

I'm playing on NYG. I like how this one sets up for the Giants. While they came up short, the Giants played well (and covered) against the Eagles. They easily could have won that game. Now, they play with extra rest - another Nationally televised game with a chance to show the world that they're not as bad as their record suggests. Also, remember, with the NFC East having such a down year, the Giants are still very much alive in the race for the division. That said, they really need this one. The Bucs, on the other hand, are off a big game at Vegas. Before that, Brady had the 1-on-1 showdown vs. Rodgers and the Packers. Next up, he's got a date with Brees and the Saints. That said, it may be natural for the Bucs to have a slight letdown and/or already be looking past the lowly Giants. The Giants have now seen three straight games decided by three or fewer points and each of their past four games has been decided by single digits. While I respect the Bucs, I believe they're getting a bit over-valued and I'm grabbing the points with what I expect to be a highly motivated home underdog. 

I'm playing on SEATTLE. Despite still dealing with major injuries, the 49'ers have managed to win big, each of the past two weeks. However, this week, they're at the wrong place, at the wrong time. After blowing last week's game at Arizona, Wilson and the Seahawks are going to be in an angry mood. Note that Seattle is 5-1 SU And 3-1-2 ATS the past couple of seasons, when off a division loss. The 49ers, 4-9-1 ATS their past 14 divisional games, played on the East Coast last week and are now playing the second of b2b road games. With an O/U line in the 50s, note that SF is 3-6 ATS its last nine, when the O/U line was 49.5 or greater. During that span, Seattle was 7-2 ATS when playing a game with an O/U line of 49.5 or greater. While both teams are very well-coached, Wilson has been playing at a different level this season. Off a loss, he'll bounce back and make the difference. 

I'm playing on TEXAS. The Cowboys are favored because they are at home and because have the higher ranking. However, I don't believe that they're the better team. Indeed, the Cowboys haven't faced a team with the talent that Texas has. If the Longhorns want any hope of keeping open a chance at the Big 12 title, they absolutely need to win this game. The Longhorns, though loaded with talent, had to learn new systems this year. They've had a chance to do so now though and I really liked the way that they put the early struggles behind them and took care of business against Baylor. 

Coach Herman had this to say after the Baylor win: "... I'm really proud of our guys for accomplishing a lot of the things that we had set out to accomplish. Heading into the bye week and to go out there and execute them in a game was important for us and our growth and in our development ... and really happy and proud that we got a opportunity to win at home and thank our fans, both here in the stadium and all across the world. And, you know, stayed relatively healthy....we made a lot of strides in that bye week leading up to Baylor. And, you know, I expect to to continue on our trajectory north of improvement and development and hopefully give Oklahoma State our best shot. And if we give them our best shot and we don't beat ourselves much like we did not beat ourselves on Saturday against Baylor, then we'll have a chance to get a big time win..."

While the Cowboys eked out a 3-point win last week, they're just 2-6-1 ATS the past nine times that they were favorites in the -3.5 to -9.5 point range. Speaking of close games, Texas won by six when these teams met last season after the Cowboys and the previous two meetings had both been decided by a field goal. Grab the points. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA. The Panthers won when these teams played earlier. In what figures to be a close game, I like getting points with revenge-minded Atlanta in Thursday's rematch. While the Falcons may not be winning, they're sure not quitting. They lost their last game by a single point, after beating Minnesota by a 40-23 score the previous week. Five of their six losses came by a TD or less, three of those came by just six combined points. Likewise, Carolina has also been playing close games. The Panthers lost by three last week. That marked their third straight game decided by seven or fewer points. Five of their seven games overall have been decided by a TD or less. While all the talk will be about whether or not McCaffrey will come back, Carolina's problems are on the other side of the ball. The Panthers' defense was young and thin to begin with and has now suffered several key injuries. I absolutely expect the Atlanta offense to take advantage. The Falcons won 29-3 here last season and 24-10 the season before that. I'll take the points but I expect another outright win for the visitors. 

I'm playing on LA. I successfully played against the Rams last week. However, that wasn't due to lack of respect for the Rams. I just really expected to see a desperate SF team and we did. The Rams are at home now and they didn't have to travel far to get here. Off a loss, they're going to be angry. The Bears, on the other hand, are playing their second straight on the road. Off b2b wins, they may be slightly complacent. Regardless, this is not an easy place to play. The Rams have won both their games here this season and are 15-4 (SU) their last 19 here. Eight of their last nine victories here have come by a minimum of seven points. Having just been embarrassed on National TV, this is an immediate opportunity for them to make amends and show the world that they're better than that. I believe that they are. The Rams are 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS their last five, as home favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range. Expect them to make a statement, in improving on those numbers on Monday night. 

I'm playing on NEW ENGLAND. I backed the 49'ers in their win last week, vs. LA. They played an inspired game and knocked off a strong Rams team. Still, lets not forget that their previous game resulted in a 43-17 loss against Miami. While the 49'ers have some key pieces back, this is still a team which is decimated by injuries. Traveling across the country to take on a hostile Patriots team, those injuries will catch up with them. The Pats weren't able to practice properly due to Covid-related issues and that was clearly one of the factors that led to their loss against Denver. Their previous game had resulted in a loss to KC. So, off b2b losses, don't expect them to show their banged-up guests any sympathy. Note that New England is 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS the past couple of seasons, off b2b losses. Even with this season's setbacks, the Pats are also still 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS their last 10 October games. This is typically been their time of year and they aren't about to lose three in a row. Not with their former QB (Brady) coming off such a huge game and not with another former QB (Jimmy G) coming to town. Indeed, Belichick is going to be extremely motivated to win this one and he'll make sure that his team feels the same way. While I respect the 49ers, they're at the wrong place, at the wrong time. 

I'm playing on NORTHWESTERN. Maryland has a recent history of winning its season opener. That changes in a big way on Saturday. Indeed, there's a significant difference in experience between these teams. Northwestern brought most of its team back. Maryland did not. As if things weren't bad enough for the Terps, QB Josh Jackson opted out, along with a handful of others. Jackson was one of six players who chose not to play due to pandemic-related issues. Not good for a team which was already lacking depth and experience. The Wildcats are stingy defensively and their veteran defensive unit is going to be tough to score on. Last year, this unit ranked 25th in the country in total defense. On the other side of the ball, new coordinator Mike Bajakian will have the offense playing with more pace and we should see an improvement on that side of the ball. These teams last met in 2017. The Wildcats won by 16. Expect another double-digit victory for the more experienced Wilcats Saturday. 

I'm playing on BUFFALO for the first half. Both these teams started the season with perfect 4-0 records. Both stumbled in Week 5. Most have grown so accustomed to seeing the Chiefs win that they think that they can't possibly lose twice in a row. They can, particularly against a dangerous and highly motivated Buffalo team. The perception that the Chiefs can't possibly lose two in a row has helped create plenty of value, particularly in my opinion, for the first half. This is a huge game for the Bills. They're going to be extremely fired up and I expect them to come out flying. Grab the points for the first half and don't be surprised when Buffalo takes a lead into the locker room.