Sports Picks & Predictions

I'm playing on KSU. I successfully played on the Wildcats in their very first game of the season. It was an early, neutral site game vs. Stanford. I noted that I expected K-State to be "better on both sides of the ball this season." The Wildcats came through for me with a 24-7 win. Now, here they are, favored in the second last bowl game of the season. The line has clmbed for good reason. LSU has a lengthy list of players who will not be playing. K-State is (mostly) healthy and hungry. Football is huge in Wildcat country and the chance to take down a team like LSU, in a bowl, doesn't come around often. They'll never get a better opportunity. LSU is severely depleted on both sides of the ball. K-State running back Deuce Vaughn will have a big day against an LSU defense missing its top tacklers. Meanwhile, K-State QB Thompson is reportedly healthy. Look for him to finish his Wildcat career a winner, his team picking up the cover along the way. 

I'm playing on CINCINNATI. Needless to say, I have the utmost respect for Alabama. Saban and the Tide have come through for me numerous times over the years. I'm typically on them, more than against. That said, I believe that this Cincinnati team is better than many people have yet to realize. Asking Alabama, which has been tested multiple times, to lay double-digits is asking a lot. Yes, the Tide just beat up on Georgia. That was certainly impressive, as the Bulldogs had previously looked unstoppable. However, let's not forget that Bama only beat Auburn by two points, in its previous game. The game before that? The Tide only won by seven, against Arkansas. They beat up on a terrible team (New Mexico State) before that. No big deal. Before that, the Tide only won by six against LSU. Earlier, the Tide lost outright against Texas A&M and beat Florida, by only two. So, that's five games which were decided by seven or less. Arguably, the Tide were fortunate to even win four of those. Yet, as it was the most recent game, the majority of the betting public can't get the Georgia result out of their heads. Admittedly, the Bearcats schedule has been on the soft side. They've still gotten it done every single time. Remember, the Bearcats went on the road and beat Notre Dame by double-digits. No other team beat the Irish all year. Notre Dame had entered that game undefeated (obviously) and off a 41-13 beating of Wisconsin. The Bearcats outscored teams 39.2 to 16.1. You'll hear a lot of talk about the Bearcat secondary. That's for good reason. They've got a pair of potential first round picks. Note that Alabama star receiver Metchie III is out. That's a big deal. He was outstanding at getting open and took a lot of pressure off Alabama's other star receiver, Williams. The Tide may find a way to win but it's not going to be easy. Remember, Cinci only lost by three against Georgia, last New Year's Day. The Bulldogs were down double-digits entering the fourth quarter and won the game on a 53-yard fg as time expired. Look for the Bearcats, 5-0 ATS their last five as underdogs, to also give the Tide all they can handle, with a legit shot at shocking the world. 

I'm playing on WISCONSIN. It's true. The Badgers didn't want to be here. They'll admit that. In some cases, teams in their situation "don't show up." I don't expect that to be the case for this well-coached team though. The Badgers didn't want to be at the Duke Mayo Bowl last year either. Yet, they still won 42-28. Nor did Paul Chryst's team want to be at the Pinstripe Bowl in 2018. Yet, the Badgers took care of business with a 35-3 beatdown of Miami. (Overall, the Badgers are 5-1 in bowls under Chryst.) This evening, they've arguably got a bigger talent edge than they had for either of those games that they "didn't want to be at." That's because the Sun Devils have lost a lot, in terms of transfers and opt outs. The running game and offensive line is depleted. That's a problem, as the Sun Devils are a team which wants to run the ball. An even bigger problem is that Wisconsin is great at stopping the run. I expect ASU to have trouble moving the ball and for the Badgers to ultimately pull away for another double-digit win. 

I'm playing on BALL STATE. This line has climbed since its opener. I feel that's providing us with excellent value with the underdog. With a victory over Coastal Carolina, Georgia State is certainly worthy of respect. The Cardinals are no slouches either though. Led by an experienced QB, they've got a balanced offense. The defense wasn't a strength but got better down the stretch. While the MAC doesn't get much respect, we just saw Miami Ohio take care of business against North Texas. Prior to that, NIU played Coastal Carolina tough, losing by six. Keep in mind that these teams had a common opponent in Army. The Knights hammered Georgia State by a score of 43-10. Ball State, on the other hand, beat Army by double digits. The Cardinals are 5-3 their last eight games and two of the three losses were by seven or less.  They're 13-3 ATS their last 16 against teams with a winning record. Four of their final six games were decided by a TD or less. In what should be another close one, I'm grabbing the points.

I'm playing on FLORIDA. I liked this game but waited for this line to dip below seven. As of this writing, at several shops, it finally has. While I'm not surprised, I feel that's providing us with excellent value. I say that I'm not surprised as I've been listening to people call for the upset ever since this matchup was announced. Many seem to think that the Knights will be the more motivated team and that the Gators will go through the motions. Surely, the Knights are fired up at the chance to take down their big name instate 'rivals.' They've been wanting to face Florida for years. Sometimes, teams and people need to be careful what they wish for though. Contrary to popular belief, the Gators ARE going to be hungry. They don't want to be embarrassed by an instate team. This is their chance to show everyone that they're better than their record indicates. Remember, the Gators are battle-tested against the likes of Georgia and Alabama. They very nearly beat the Crimson Tide, in fact. While Miami wasn't on the schedule, Florida has beaten South Florida, Florida Atlantic and Florida State. The avg margin of victory was 15.33 points. I'm expecting another double-digit victory. 

I'm playing on SDSU. Regardless of what happens here, the Roadrunners have had a remarkable season. They can hold their heads high. I won with them in their last game, an impressive win over WKU. However, in their previous game, I successfully played against them. I feel that this will be another good spot to do so. Admittedly, the Aztecs didn't look too good in their last game. They were blown out by Utah State. That was just their second loss the entire season though. The Aztecs bounced back with a 7-point road win, after their previous loss. They're 5-1 SU and 4-1-1 ATS their last six, when off a conference loss. Remember, this SDSU team beat the likes of Utah (currently #10 in the country) and Boise State. When playing with more than a week's rest earlier this season, they won 31-7, delivering one of their more dominant efforts of the season. Note that the Aztecs are 8-3 ATS their last 11 against non-conference opponents. Unlike their opponents, the Aztecs cannot "hold their heads high" if they don't win this game. Arguably, anything less than a "W" here will make for a disappointing season. I say they bounce back and get the victory, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on LOUISIANA LAFAYETTE. The Cajuns could easily be bigger favorites. They lost their opening game. Since then, they've reeled off 12 straight wins. That includes a pair of wins against Appalachian State, a team which defeated Marshall. The Thundering Herd got crushed 53-21 last game, one of five losses. The Cajuns are strong offensively but they also rank 18th in the country in terms of points allowed. They give up just 18 ppg. (Marshall ranks #41st and allows 23.) Of course, it should be noted that the game is being played in New Orleans, only a short drive from Lafayette. The line is relatively low, in part, because of Louisiana having a new coach for this game. However, I'm not so worried about that. This is a veteran team led by a veteran senior QB. They've had plenty of time for the new coach to get familiar with everything; the offense will remain the same. Off the loss to WKU, note that Marshall is just 1-5 ATS its last six, when off a conference loss. Expect Louisiana to punctuate its outstanding season with a win and cover. 

I'm playing on SAN DIEGO STATE. These teams both deserve credit for getting here. Neither were expected to do so. That said, I feel that the Aztecs are the stronger team. The Aggies wouldn't be here if San Diego State hadn't beaten Boise State last week. After everything that happened to the program last year, just being here is already a big win for Utah State. Of course, they want to win. However, the season has already been a huge success. That's not the case for the Aztecs; they're hungry for more. Last season's game wasn't even close. The Aggies ran for 407 yards. That was one of the best (9th all-time) rushing efforts in school history. I expect the Aztecs to dominate on the ground again. While one could possibly overlook Utah State giving up 437 rushing yards to Air Force, this season's Aggies also gave up 362 rushing yards to lowly Wyoming. The Aggies did bounce back from the blowout loss to Wyoming but the win came against a bad New Mexico team. They're also 4-8 ATS the last 12 times that they were off a conference loss. While the Aggie defense is highly suspect, the Aztecs are dominant on that side of the ball. They allow just 17.3 ppg. That's the 7th best mark in the country. While they got off to a 3-0 start, the Aggies have since stumbled against tough competition, losing against Boise and BYU. All their wins, since the 3-0 start, have been against weak or mediocre teams. On the other hand, the Aztecs have beaten the likes of Utah. I'm expecting them to pull away for a double-digit win. 

I'm playing on UTSA. I successfully played against the Roadrunners in their game against UAB. They were favored in that game though and I felt that they were over-valued. I'm not convinced that Western Kentucky is any better than UAB. Yet, this time, the Roadrunners are getting points. I believe that's providing us with excellent value. UTSA won by six when these teams met at Western Kentucky, earlier in the season. That one was close the entire way. Both teams have played some other close ones, too. Like WKU's 2-point game with Indiana or UTSA's 3-point games against Memphis and UAB. Off this season's first setback, note that the Roadrunners are 8-1 ATS the past nine times that they were off a SU loss. They're also 6-1 ATS their last seven, after allowing more than 200 rushing yards and 4-0 ATS their last four, after throwing for less than 170 yards. The Roadrunners played in bad weather, on the road, last week. They were dealing with increasing pressure from being undefeated. As their coach said, they were probably a "little off." Three turnovers didn't help. Now, however, they're back home. To a certain extent, the pressure is off. With the line having climbed from its opener, I believe we're getting excellent value. Grab the points. 

I'm playing on OREGON. The Ducks stumbled against Utah but I expect them to bounce back big this afternoon. Not only are the Ducks looking to atone for last week - a win sets up a rematch with Utah - but they've got revenge on their minds. The Beavers upset them last year, at Corvalis. The Beavers have been tough to beat at home this year, too. However, they've only played three road games (Colorado, Cal, Washington State) since the start of October and they lost all three. They lost those three by an average of eight points and none of those venues/teams are as tough as the one they'll contend with today. While last year's game was close, the previous six weren't. All six of those were decided by "double-digits," the Ducks taking five of them. The Ducks have won the last two against the Beavers here by a combined score of 93-20. Expect another double-digit win. 

I'm playing on WASHINGTON. You often hear people state that "you can throw out the records" in these type of rivalry games. Personally, I don't necessarily subscribe to that theory; I never discount a team's record. However, in this case, I do indeed expect the team with the inferior record to prove victorious. The Huskies are argualy better than their record suggests. Their only loss of greater than 10 points was on the road, at Michigan. They had four losses of seven or less. So, they could easily have a better record. The Cougars have won just three of 12 road games the past couple of seasons and they've got an 0-2 ATS mark as road favorites, in those games. Sure, the Cougars are off an impressive 44-18 blowout of Arizona. The Wildcats aren't very good though and the Cougars are just 1-8 ATS the past nine times that they scored 40 or more points in their previous game. The Huskies have dominated the last six Apple Cup meetings, each win coming by double-digits. While I see this one being closer, in the end, I expect another Washington win. 

I'm playing on WESTERN MICHIGAN. The Huskies have the better record and are playing at home. Yet, the Broncos are favored. That's for good reason, in my opinion. While the Broncos have fallen on hard times recently, this is still one of the top teams in the MAC. They played road games at (10-1) Michigan and (9-2) Pittsburgh earlier and came away with a split in those games. Naturally, they'd still like to win. However, the Huskies have already clinched the conference title. On the other hand, the Broncos know a victory here would surely punch their ticket to a bowl game. (They're probably good already but its not a certainty.) They've obvioulsy done a great job but I'm still not sold on the Huskies. I say the Broncos take this one, picking up the cover along the way. 

I'm playing on UAB. With Oklahoma losing to Baylor, there are now only three undefeated teams remaining. Georgia is obviously the real deal. Cincinnati is also pretty strong. I'm not sold on the third team though. Unlike Georgia, UTSA has faced a very soft schedule. The Roadrunners toughest opponents were Illinois, Memphis and Western Kentucky. While the Roadrunners deserve credit for winning, all three of those games were close and they were fortunate to avoid any losses. They gave up more than 400 yards in all three of those games including a whopping 670 against WKU. With an early game at Georgia, UAB was never going to go undefeated. Still the Blazers are 7-3 SU/ATS and surely more "battle-tested" than their hosts. Throw out the Georgia loss and the Blazers are 5-0 on the road. All five wins came by at least a TD, three of them by more than 30 points. Last week's victory at Marshall was arguably as, or more, impressive than anything UTSA has done.The Blazers have beaten the Roadrunners each of the past four years and they held them to less than 300 yards of offense in each of them. I'll grab the points, as this one could be close, but I expect there to be one less undefeated team, when this one concludes.

I'm playing on WMU. After getting upset by the Eagles last season, the Broncos have a score to settle. They're much better on both sides of the ball and the only reason the line is reasonable is due to the fact that they're on the road. That said, note that the road team is 5-1 ATS the past six meetings. Also, note that the Eagles have lost their last two games here, each loss coming by at least seven points. Meanwhile, the Broncos check in off a 45-40 victory. Admittedly, the defense wasn't as stingy as it normally is. However, it should be mentioned that the Broncos are 10-2 ATS, when coming off a game where they allowed 280 or more passing yards. So, they tend to respond from a sub-par defensive effort with a big game. Expect them to do exactly that tonight. They'll put up a big number and ultimately the Eagles won't be able to keep up. 

I'm playing on STANFORD. For a team which has been playing such close games, the Beavers are laying a lot of points. The Beavers' last two games were losses of three and six points. Their last five games have all been decided by eight or less. Speaking of "close games," the last two meetings between these teams were both decided by a field goal. Stanford won both. In fact, the Cardinal have won 11 straight in the series. Oregon State just replaced its defensive coordinator as the defense has really struggled. The Beavers have allowed more than 30 points in each of their last four games. While the Cardinal have certainly disappointed, this is still a team which has wins against USC and Oregon. They're going to be hungry to get back on track and to prove they're better than they showed last game. I like that they're working with an extra day in betweem games. I'm expecting a close one and am grabbing the generous points. 

I'm playing on CINCINNATI. This is a mismatch and I expect it to get ugly. Undefeated on the season, the #5 ranked Bearcats want to make a statement that they're a national title contender. This is their chance to show the world how good they really are. Major advantages on both sides of the ball, I expect them to make the most of the opportunity. Off b2b double-digit losses, the Bulls have seen better days. They haven't faced an opponent as good as Cincinnati, yet they've lost by double-digits five times. Three of those losses came by greater than 21 points. Indeed, this is a USF team which is absolutely capable of getting blown out, again. The Bulls are going to have real trouble moving the ball and they won't be able to stop the Cincy ground game. While the Bearcats allow 14.9 ppg, the Bulls allow 34.3. Look for the Bearcats to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way, as USF falls to 1-5 ATS (0-6 SU) its last six, when playing a home game with an O/U line in the 56.5 to 63 range. 

I'm playing on NORTH CAROLINA. The Tar Heels are off a win over Wake Forest. Down double-digits, they dominated the fourth quarter. While some might expect a letdown, I believe that type of comeback victory will provide them with positive momentum for this game. The Panthers are having a strong season. However, the Tar Heels match up well against them. Also, note that Pittsburgh lost outright to Miami last time it was on this field. Getting points in this matchup is an attractive proposition as games between these teams tend to be to close. They've met eight times since 2009 and ALL eight of those games were decided by seven points or less. Pittsburgh won the most recent game in OT. The previous three meetings were decided by three, three and one points. Overall, UNC has covered five of the past seven meetings. With the line having climbed from its opener, I'm grabbing the points.

I'm playing on WESTERN MICHIGAN. While the line may seem large, this is a mismatch. WMU, 11-5-1 ATS its last 17 as a favorite in the 21.5 to 31 range, has big edges on both sides of the ball. I successfully played on the Zips when they beat Bowling Green. That was their only conference win of the season though. The rest of their MAC games have been losses; their only other victory came against Bryant. Blowout losses (60-10 and 59-7) against Ohio State and Auburn were expected. However, the Zips have also been blown out (45-10) by the likes of Buffalo. Now, they've just fired their coach, who had led them to a 3-24 record during his time there. Don't expect the Broncos to show them any mercy. They're better than their record suggests and they still need a victory to become bowl eligible. They won 58-13 at Akron last year and this one will also get ugly. 

I'm playing on MARYLAND. While I respect the Nittany Lions, I feel that this is a tough spot for them to be laying this many points on the road. For starters, the Nittany Lions have dropped three in a row. Also, the Terps can score points with the best of them. They average 29.5 ppg. Penn State averages 26.5 ppg. At home, the Terps average 36.2 ppg and 473 ypg. On the road, the Lions average 20 pgg and 326 ypg. True, Penn State may be thinking about revenge. Maryland scored a major upset in winning 35-19 at State College last year. That result should give the Terps confidence though. Also, Penn State is still probably thinking about what could have been, coming off three straight close losses - the first two by a field goal or less and last week by single digits against Ohio State. Those type of losses take a toll. On the other hand, Maryland snapped a losing streak of its own last week, earning a momentum building 38-35 victory vs. Indiana. I also like the fact that Penn State has a huge game vs. Michigan on deck. As badly as the Lions need this win, they'll still have next week's game in the back of their minds. While the Terps have struggled against top tier teams (Iowa, Ohio State) I like how this one sets up for them. Remember, this is arguably a better Maryland team then the one which beat the Lions on the road last year. Look for Penn State to fall to 2-8 ATS the past 10 times it was off a Big Ten loss. 

I'm playing on LOUISIANA. I backed the Cajuns on Saturday and said to expect a blowout. Laying -21 points, they won 45-0. Georgia State represents a tougher opponent. However, I still believe its a mismatch. The Cajuns are that strong. True, the Panthers played them tough last year. Louisiana only won 34-31. That was at Georgia State though. The Cajuns were also off one of the biggest wins in program history as they had just upset a Top 25 team (Iowa State) on the road, one of the biggest wins in school history. Off that "emotional" victory, the Cajuns were in a tough spot to go on the road. This one sets up much differently though. This time, instead of playing b2b road games, the Cajuns are off a comfortable blowout win, right here at home. Playing on a short week, that will serve them well. On the other hand, the Panthers are off an "emotional" road win against an instate rival. This time, they're the team playing b2b road games. Playing on a short week, in that situation, won't help them. The Cajuns are 7-3 ATS their last 10, as home favorites in the -10.5 to -14 range. With a chance to show the ESPN audience how strong they are, expect the Cajuns to improve on those stats tonight. 

I'm playing on TULSA. I love how this one sets up for the Golden Hurricane. While Tulsa is off a hard-fought close win, Navy is off a hard-fought close loss. This is a young Navy team and they really left it all on the field against a top team in Cincinnati. Having nearly pulled off the monumental upset, (the Midshipmen were 29 point underdogs) only to come up short, will take a toll this week. Playing on the road, on a short-week, doesn't make matters any easier on the Midshipmen. Note that the Midshipmen are winles on the road this season, most recently losing by 18, at Memphis. While Navy plays on a short week, Tulsa is off a bye. The Golden Hurricane are 6-1 ATS their last seven, when off a bye. They won by 13, at Navy last year. Schedule, venue and setup in their favor, expect an even bigger margin of victory on Friday night. 

I'm playing on APPALACHIAN STATE. Needless to say, this is a huge game for both teams. Coastal Carolina wants to stay undefeated. Appalachian State wants respect and revenge. It's true that the Mountaineers have a couple of losses. In fact, I successfully played against them in their last game. However, it's also true that both of their losses came on the road. They're 3-0 here at home, 14-2 the past few seasons. Having lost at Conway last year, the Mountaineers are thrilled to get this matchup here at home. They hammered the Chanticleers 56-37 the last meeting here. They're also 4-1 ATS their last five as underdogs. I feel that these teams are quite evenly matched. Yes, the Chanticleers brought back a lot from last year's strong team. The same is true of the Mountaineers though. Speaking of 2020, last year's game had a line of -3, despite Coastal Carolina playing at home. That said, getting points at home is great value. In what should be a good team, I expect AT LEAST a cover for the revenge-minded Mountaineers. 

I'm playing on CLEMSON. The Tigers haven't been a good bet this year; they're 0-5 ATS thus far. I expect them to finally snap that streak Friday though as I love how this one sets up. First, understand that Clemson has far superior athletes across the board. The Tigers may have struggled to being the post-Lawrence era but they're still extremely talented. The defense is among the best in the country. Clemson bounced back from a loss to win its last game. It wasn't pretty but I like that the Tigers found a way to get the victory. They've since had a bye and are ready to make a statement in front of the national audience. Remember, this is a team and coach with a lot of pride. They don't like hearing all the talk about their reign being over. Note that Clemson is 5-1 ATS (6-0 SU) its last six off a bye. While the Tigers are playing with extra rest and preparation time, the Orange play on a short week. They're off their second straight very close loss, too. Those are the type of defeats that take a toll, particularly when a team has suffered two of them in a row. Last time the Tigers came here they won by a score of 41-7. I'm expecting another blowout. 

I'm playing on LOUISIANA LAFAYETTE on Tuesday. These are both solid teams and this should be a good game. I believe that the Rajin' Cajuns are providing outstanding value. Both teams have won the games which they were expected to win. Each is 4-1. Their losses came at Miami and at Texas. So, they were also expected. It's true that the Mountaineers played the Hurricanes closer than the Cajuns played the Longhorns. They still lost (a close one) though. It's also true that the Mountaineers are off the bigger win. That's fine with me though; those results have helped this line climb. The Cajuns still won a road game; I like the fact that they've learned to win the close ones. (Three of their four wins have been by single digits, two by three points or less.) Knowing how to win those close games will serve the Cajuns well in this one. For what it's worth, the last time that they were on this field, the Cajuns crushed Ohio by a score of 49-14. That's a bigger margin of victory than App. State has managed in a game this season. The last five meetings have all been quite close, each decided by 11 or less. After coming out on the wrong side of those games for several seasons in a row, the Cajuns finally broke through with a 3-point win in last year's game. I'm expecting another close one. Note that the line has climbed from its opener, providing additional value. While I believe that the Cajuns have a great shot at the outright win, I'm happy to grab the points

I'm playing on KENT STATE. The Golden Flashes had some lean years recently. So, many still think of them as a really bad team. The opposite is true of Buffalo. The Bulls have been really strong the past few seasons. So, many have an idea of them being a MAC powerhouse. This year is different though. The Bulls lost a lot of players from last year. Last year's coach left in the spring and a number of players followed him out the door, along with the entire coaching staff. That means that its all new players and new systems. Kent State, on the other hand, is highly experienced. Yet, because the Golden Flashes have played road games at Texas A&M, Iowa and Maryland, their stats make them look bad. The Bulls dropped 70 on the Golden Flashes in the last game of last season, setting a number of records along the way. Kent State has been waiting for Saturday's rematch ever since. The Golden Flashes are 8-1 ATS their last nine against teams with losing records. Expect them to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way here, putting up a big number en route to a double-digit win.

I'm playing on FIU. In a game where I expect the Panthers to win outright, getting points is a nice bonus.The Panthers are coming into this game extremely hungry. Butch Davis' Panthers lost in OT to Texas State back on 9/11. It was a hard-fought game that they could have won. Since then, their next three have come on the road. So, it's not surprising that they lost them. Charlotte hasn't won on the road either. Both the 49'ers road games have resulted in double-digit losses. This is the only time in this season's schedule where they'll be playing consecutive road games. The short week figures to favor the home team. Remember, the Panthers brought back 18 players from last year while Charlotte brought only back 13. Note that the 49'ers are banged up in their secondary, an area where they lost some key guys from last year. These teams met here in 2019. The Panthers won 48-23. This one will likely be a lot closer (FIU won each of the previous three by a TD or less including two 1-point wins) but I expect the end result to remain the same. Grab the points. 

I'm playing on HAWAII. I respect the Bulldogs. However, they're laying a lot of points here and I expect them to have their hands full. Hawaii brought back 18 starters from last year's team. Last year's team won 34-19, at Fresno State. The line for that game was only +2.5. Now, playing at home with arguably a stronger team, the Warriors are getting considerably more points. Value. Fresno State also returned a ton of starters, as the Bulldogs brought back 19 from last year's team. They only beat UNLV by eight last week though, a game where they were laying -30 points. Kind of disturbing to give up 281 passing yards and 30 points to the Rebels. Note that the Bulldogs are 0-5 ATS the past five times that they allowed more than 280 passing yards in their previous game. Also, note that their last three games against Div 1 teams have all been decided by eight points or less. The Warriors are off a confidence-building 41-21 blowout win at New Mexico State. Before that, in their last game here, they played a good San Jose State team tough. They lost by only four points. Speaking of close games, Fresno's last visit here was decided on a field goal, 41-38, as time expired. I'm expecting another close one and am grabbing the generous points. 

I'm playing on MIAMI. Though I successfully backed them against Illinois, I'm not a big believer in this year's Cavaliers. Last week, they got hammered by Wake Forest. The Deacons have a good team this year but that result still showed that Virginia has a lot of work to do. That's b2b losses of 20 points. Things don't get any easier. Off a 69-0 victory, Miami is full of confidence. Having faced the likes of Alabama (and Michigan State) the Canes are battle tested. Miami won last year's meeting by five and won by eight the year before that. I see an even bigger margin of victory in this one. 

I'm playing on WASHINGTON. I had this game circled when the schedule came out. I've wanted to play it since the line came out but have waited patiently for it to come down. The reality is, however, that I'm expecting a convincing double-digit win for the Huskies. This year's team is loaded, stronger than many realize; they got on track in a big way last week. That 52-3 beating of Arkansas State gives them plenty of confidence and positive momentum. The Bears' lone victory came last week against Sacramento State - and they gave up more than 400 passing yards in the process. The previous week, they gave up 271 yards on the ground. Indeed, this is a porous Cal defense and Washington will put up a big number. Considering that the Huskies have allowed 13 and three points in their two games, I don't believe that the Bears will be able to keep up. The Bears have won b2b closes one in the series. Tonight, their vastly superior defense making the difference, the Huskies avenge those losses in blowout fashion. 

I'm playing on WAKE FOREST. I won with the Cavaliers in their blowout win over Illinois. However, UNC brought them back down to earth last week and I expect them to have their hands full again on Friday night. Wake Forest beat Virginia 40-23 last season. This year's team is even better, as the Deacons returned 20 starters from last year's team. While the Cavs were getting beaten up by the Tar Heels last week, the Deacons are off a confidence-building 35-14 beatdown of Florida State. Indeed, this team is better than many may yet realize. Note that WF is 5-1 ATS its last six, when coming off a SU victory. Including last year's victory, the Deacons are a perfect 6-0 ATS the past six meetings in the series. (They've won the last four meetings outright and the two before that were losses of one point and three points.) The Cavs will eventually snap that streak. Just not on Friday night. Grab the points. 

I'm playing on MIAMI. At first glance, it may appear that the Spartans are off to a much better start than the Hurricanes. They're 2-0 SU/ATS while Miami is 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS. Those records aren't surprising though. The Spartans beat Northwestern but they were catching the Wildcats playing their first game, after losing most of their offense from last year. So, a nice win, but not entirely shocking. Their next game was against Youngstown State. So, winning that game was obviously expected. Miami has played much tougher competition. The Canes first game was vs Alabama. So, a loss wasn't that surprising. Next was Appalachian State. Though they didn't cover, the Canes did a good job of bouncing back from the opening day loss, to earn the SU win. Now, that first victory under their belts and fully recovered from the Bama beating, they'll be ready to put it all together. Even with the win at Northwestern, the Spartans are still just 3-8 ATS their last 11 as underdogs, 0-4 ATS as underdogs in the 3.5 to 10 range. While many seem to be jumping on the bandwagon, expect the Spartans to receive a reality check on Saturday afternoon. 

I'm playing on OHIO. Neither team is pleased with how its played so far. The Cajuns lost to Texas. No shame in that, except that they were blown out 38-18. They followed it up by only beating Nicholls by a field goal. Not good, when considering they were laying nearly four TDs. Ohio has been even worse. The Bobcats followed up a loss against Syracuse by losing outright to Duquesne. I'm of the mind that both teams are a lot better than they've shown and that both will be playing better on Thursday. That said, this is a lot of points for the Cajuns to be laying, considering they only just beat Nicholls by a field goal. Ohio has a veteran coach and a veteran team. The Bobcats are coming in desperate. Look for them to provide a much tougher test than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on V-TECH. The Tar Heels are tough on both sides of the ball and deserving of their national ranking. This is a very tough opening game though. Blacksburg has never been an easy place to play. Now, the fans are back and the Hokies should be much improved. While the offense will be good again, the Heels lost some serious firepower from last year.  Note that they're just 5-5 on the road under Brown. Last year, they lost at (3-6) Florida State and (5-5) Virginia. After missing out on a bowl game for the first time in 27 years, the Hokies are coming into this season with a chip in their shoulder. They're 4-2 ATS their last six getting points overall and 6-3 ATS their last nine, as underdogs in the 3.5 to 7 range. I say homefield proves significant and that the Heels give the Hokies all that they can handle. 

I'm playing on NEBRASKA. It sounds funny but a case can be made that this is one of Nebraska's most important games of the season. The Huskers absolutely need a positive start. Beating a team which embarrassed them last year is a great place to begin. Beating Brett Bielema, new coach of Illinois, will make it even sweeter. Nebraska coach Frost commented: "The one thing we need is momentum right now. There's so many good things that are happening in our program. These kids deserve a little wind under their wings, and that first game's going to be an opportunity for us against a Big Ten opponent. So that really is a big game." Frost has plenty of talent and now he's had plenty of time with his team. The cupboard isn't bare for Bielema either, thanks to his "super seniors." That said, its going to take some time. He can't be expected to work miracles overnight. The Huskers are 13-8 ATS their last 21, as road favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range. I see them settling the score from last year with a double-digit win to start the season. 

I'm playing on TEXAS A&M. The SEC didn't fare too well at the betting window, in yesterday's egames. Auburn lost to Northwestern while Georgia nearly lost outright against Cincy. Then, Alabama failed to cover against the Irish. That may have some scratching their heads about why the SEC team is getting so much respect here. However, I'm projecting a double-digit win and believe that the Aggies could easily be favored by more. While the Tar Heels were certainly impressive in beating up on Miami, they also lost against Virginia, Florida State and Notre Dame. Texas A&M has just one loss all season and that came at Alabama. Since then, the Aggies have won seven straight, starting with Florida, all against SEC opposition. Their last six wins have ALL come by double-digits. Despite facing an SEC schedule, the Aggies allowed just 21.1 ppg compared to the Tar Heels' 28.4 ppg against an ACC schedule, one which didn't include a game against Clemson. Of course, it also needs to be mentioned that UNC has a number of players who chose to opt out of this game. Mack Brown said this of the missing players: "That's 4,000 yards worth of offense and our leading tackler on defense and two captains. This is new for me because I've never had a guy not play in a ball game ... " Texas A&M rolls. 

I'm playing on OHIO STATE. One can argue that the Buckeyes didn't deserve to be here, due to eligibilty reasons. However, there's no arguing the fact that they have the talent to be here. I like the way that the Buckeyes enter this one. The world against them - at least they can make a case for feeling that way - and off a non-cover, comeback win in the Big Ten championship game. All that sets them up well for this one; I like how they rallied to come back from a 10-6 halftime deficit to win 22-10. The comeback provides momentum and confidence, as does the ability to win a close game. The non-cover creates some additional line value, as this line could easily be less than a touchdown. QB Fields has had time for his thumb to recover and now he'll have one of his favorite receivers back, as Chris Olave missed the Northwestern game. Last year's game could have easily gone either way. The Buckeyes were up 16-0 but lost 29-23. Lawrence threw the game-winning TD with less than two minutes to go. Again, the Buckeyes were right there last year. They've been waiting and hoping for this rematch and I expect them to again give the Tigers all they can handle. Fields had this to say: "It's pretty self-explanatory that game hurt us a lot last year. So that has kind of been our whole motivation this offseason. Just getting the chance to play those guys again is a great opportunity ... " Ohio State's offensive lineman Wyatt Davis added: "It's everybody. I mean, we had a whole winter offseason program dedicated to this game. Clearly what we've seen and I'm sure all of you have seen this, we're going into this game not respected at all so that has a lot of motivations as well." Don't be surprised when this one comes down to the wire once again, the revenge-minded Buckeyes with an excellent shot at the outright win. 

I'm playing on BALL STATE. While I respect San Jose State, I don't believe it should be laying double-digits against an undervalued Ball State team. I don't think the Cardinals are being given nearly enough respect or enough credit for beating Buffalo. Keep in mind that the Bulls had been crushing every team they faced all season. That was a very good Buffalo team and Ball State won by double-digits. That victory was arguably more impressive than anything that the Spartans did. That's six straight wins. The Cards only loss was in their first game and that was by just seven points. San Jose State does deserve credit but also benefitted from a down year in the Mountain West. Keep in mind that the Spartans are still just 2-10 SU their last 12 against teams with a winning record. In what should be a close one, I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on WESTERN KENTUCKY in the Lending Tree Bowl. The Panthers got the better of the Hilltoppers when these teams met in a bowl game in 2017. Three years later, I expect the Hilltoppers to settle the score. While the Panthers have the edge on offense, the Hilltoppers have been much better on defense. I like the momentum that WKU brings into this game; the Hilltoppers have won three straight, winning by a bigger margin each time out. They've only got one loss by more than four points in the past two months and that came at BYU, which was undefeated at the time. The Panthers have been involved in five games decided by seven or fewer points. Likewise, the Hilltoppers have seen five of their games decided by seven or less. The Hilltoppers are 5-1 ATS the past six times that they were underdogs in the 3.5 to 10 range. The Hilltoppers are happy to be here and they're coming in hungry. While I like the outright win, in what should be a close one, I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on CINCINNATI. The Bearcats have had a great season and I expect them to keep on rolling Saturday. With the exception of a 3-point win against UCF, Cincy beat every other opponent by a minimum of 14 points. It should be noted that that the game against UCF was on the road. This game, however, will be played at Nippert Stadium. The last three teams (ECU, Houston and Memphis) that have visited here have lost by scores of 55-17, 38-10 and 49-10. Going back further finds the Bearcats at 18-0 SU and 12-6 ATS their last 18 at home. While Tulsa allows 19.9 ppg, Cincy allows just 15 ppg. On the other side of the ball, the Bearcats' advantage is even bigger. Tulsa averages 27.7 ppg. Cincinnati averages 40.9. While I expect Tulsa to have trouble scoring, no team has kept Cincy to less than 36 points for more than two months. Bearcats roll. 

I'm playing on V-TECH. Virginia is rolling. Virginia Tech is reeling. No brainer on the visitors, right? Not in my opinion. A closer look at the Hokies' 4-game skid shows that the first was an unlikely 3-point loss against Liberty. That was followed by a 1-point loss against Miami. Each of those games absolutely could have gone either way. Getting stuck on the wrong side of both was tough to take though and the Hokies delivered a dud at Pittsburgh. Not a great effort but understandable, all the same. That was followed by a loss against Clemson. So, there's no shame in that. In other words, I'm not ready to write the Hokies off due their current slide. Coach Fuente summed it up by saying: " ... we've lost two heartbreakers then didn't play very well on the road and came home against the No. 3 team in the country and right in the middle of the game had some of the weirdest events I've ever seen occur. There's a little bit of context .... The bottom line is that I love what we are teaching, what they are retaining and where we are going." Beating their bitter instate rival won't get them a winning record but it will sure go a long way in getting rid of the bad taste in their mouths. With a bowl game lookling unlikely, this game is even more important. The Cavs haven't played a road game since way back on 10/24, when they lost by five, at Miami. In fact, a closer look shows that Virginia is 0-3 on the road this season, getting outscored by a combined score of 100-60. Speaking of road woes, the Cavs haven't won here since 1998. I expect a highly motivated V-Tech team to deliver its very best effort, continuing its homefield dominance in this series while covering the small number along the way.  

I'm playing on APP STATE. This is a big game between two good teams. While the Cajuns have the higher ranking, I believe that the Mountaineers are favored for good reason. After losing to Coastal Carolina, the Mountaineers didn't hang their heads. They went out and hammered Troy. Now, they get a chance to redeem themselves by beating a ranked team. I expect them to make the most of the opportunity. The Mountaineers have dominated this series in recent seasons. I believe that the Mountaineers have the better defense and that will ultimately lead to them contininuing their series dominance. Coastal Carolina was the only team to score more than 21 points against them. Each of the past five, besides Coastal Carolina, has scored 17 or less. While the Cajuns may get more than that, they won't get enough. Lay the small number. 

I'm playing on UTAH STATE. I won with the Aggies in their last game, a 41-27 win over New Mexico. That was a huge win for them, as it was their first of the season. Now, with that monkey off their back, I expect the Aggies to carry the positive momentum into this evening's game. With last week's win, Utah State is now 11-4 SU and 10-5 ATS its past 15 home games. During that span, Air Force is just 5-8 SU on the road. In this season's lone road game, the Falcons managed only six points, a 17-6 loss at SJ State. While the Falcons did beat up on New Mexico last time out, that was awhile ago now; they haven't been playing much, due to covid cancellations. I expect that to work against them here, as the suddenly confident Aggies are coming "ready to play." Grab the points. 

I'm playing on OREGON. They no longer officially call this game the "Civil War." That title was dropped several months ago. There's still no love lost between the two teams though and there's still a big class difference between them. Oregon is better on both sides of the ball. I like that the Ducks were tested by UCLA last week and how they responded and came through with a victory. Off that "close call," I believe they'll follow it up with a blowout win. The Ducks, who already covered at Washington State, are 6-2 ATS the past 2+ seasons, as road favorites. Their last visit here, almost exactly two years ago, saw Oregon, which was laying 18 points, win by 40, a 55-15 destruction. Including that result, the Beavers are just 4-9-1 ATS their last 14 home games, 0-3 ATS when listed as home underdogs in the 10.5 to 14 range. Oregon coach Mario Cristobal said this of last week's win: "We were a little bit out of sync, and like we told those guys, ‘Look, when you win, you don’t apologize for winning, you don’t get down for winning, you just recognize where you got to get better.' And we weren’t at our very best, and we know that we have to improve certain things." Expect the Ducks to "get better" and for them to deliver their biggest blowout of the season, thus far. 

I'm playing on UCF. The Bearcats are having a great season and won't be easy to beat. However, I believe that the Knights are peaking at the right time and feel that they have the offense to do so. Indeed, UCF leads the nation with 619 yards and 44 points per game. The UCF offensive line has been playing great and will be the first team this season capable of handling the physicality of Cincy's defensive front. UCF took a bit to get going, understandable with all the pandemic stuff going on. The Knights are firing on all cylinders now though. UCF tackle Ed Collins noted: "The bye week after the Tulsa loss, we came together as a unit pretty good ..." Last year's game at Cincy was decided by just three points. The Knights won the previous three meetings, all by double-digits. Grab the points. 

I'm playing on SDSU. This is already Hawaii's third road game in the past four weeks. They got crushed (at Wyoming) last time away from the island and this figures to be an even tougher venue. I expect the travel to catch up with them. Off last week's loss, the Aztecs are going to be in an angry mood. Last week's loss notwithstanding, the Aztecs have a very stingy defense. Expect Hawaii, which managed only seven points last time on the road, to have trouble finding the end zone. The Aztecs have additional motivation in this one as Hawaii has actually beaten them in b2b seasons, including a 31-30 upset, as double-digit underdogs, last time here. Its payback time today, the Aztecs keeping the pedal to the metal the entire way. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. Coach P.J. Fleck has turned the Gophers around, since his arrival in 2017. However, he has yet to beat Iowa. Even last year's team, which went 11-2, lost to the Hawkeyes. Needless to say, Fleck and the Gophers are extremely motivated to finally get a win in this series. They've got the offense to do it and they're playing at home. Last year's game was at Iowa and was decided by just four points. Yes, the Hawkeyes looked really good in beating up on Michigan State. However, they also lost by four points (at Purdue) in their lone road game. Additionally, Northwestern beat them by a point. Minnesota, young but talented, is getting better each time out. The Gophers are off a big win of their own and have scored more than 40 in b2b games. I expect Fleck to have them ready to play and look for them to give their guests all that they can handle, taking the game down to the wire and earning AT LEAST the cover. 

I'm playing on BALL STATE. The Cardinals lost a tough one, at Miami Ohio, in their opener. While they would have liked to have it, they can afford that loss. They can't afford to lose this one though. That Cardinals improved last year and narrowly missed a bowl game. They lost each of their final three games by four or less to finish at 5-7. Thats a bad taste that they're still trying to get rid of. This is the perfect opportunity to do just that. The Eagles earned a somewhat fortunate cover (SU loss) in their opener. However, they're one of the weaker teams in the conference and now they're playing their second straight on the road. Ball State believes it can take the next step this season. If thats to be the case, the Cardinals need to take care of business on Wednesday. The Cardinals can and wil score a lot of points. Ultimately, I don't expect the Eagles to be able to keep up. 

I'm playing on TENNESSEE. The Razorbacks have arguably overachieved. However, they're still one of the weaker teams in the conference. I feel that the Vols have an edge in talent. I also really like the fact that they had last week off. They'd had a tough stretch of games, so the bye absolutely came at the right time. Its given them a chance to regroup and to focus on taking care of business in this winnable game. While the Vols are slight favorites, as of this writing, its a small enough line that a SU win should also equal an ATS win. Thats noteworthy as Tennessee is 52-11 SU as a road favorite over the years. This season, the only time that they were favored on the road, the Vols took care of business by winning (and covering) at South Carolina. While Pittman is in his first season with Arkansas, this is year 3 of the "Pruitt era" in Tennessee. If the Vols want to get to .500, this is a game they absolutely need to win. The Vols are 4-1 SU the last five under Pruitt, after losing their previous two games. (The loss came at Alabama.) Desperate for a victory, expect them to bounce back. 

I'm playing on TEXAS. The Cowboys are favored because they are at home and because have the higher ranking. However, I don't believe that they're the better team. Indeed, the Cowboys haven't faced a team with the talent that Texas has. If the Longhorns want any hope of keeping open a chance at the Big 12 title, they absolutely need to win this game. The Longhorns, though loaded with talent, had to learn new systems this year. They've had a chance to do so now though and I really liked the way that they put the early struggles behind them and took care of business against Baylor. 

Coach Herman had this to say after the Baylor win: "... I'm really proud of our guys for accomplishing a lot of the things that we had set out to accomplish. Heading into the bye week and to go out there and execute them in a game was important for us and our growth and in our development ... and really happy and proud that we got a opportunity to win at home and thank our fans, both here in the stadium and all across the world. And, you know, stayed relatively healthy....we made a lot of strides in that bye week leading up to Baylor. And, you know, I expect to to continue on our trajectory north of improvement and development and hopefully give Oklahoma State our best shot. And if we give them our best shot and we don't beat ourselves much like we did not beat ourselves on Saturday against Baylor, then we'll have a chance to get a big time win..."

While the Cowboys eked out a 3-point win last week, they're just 2-6-1 ATS the past nine times that they were favorites in the -3.5 to -9.5 point range. Speaking of close games, Texas won by six when these teams met last season after the Cowboys and the previous two meetings had both been decided by a field goal. Grab the points. 

I'm playing on NORTHWESTERN. Maryland has a recent history of winning its season opener. That changes in a big way on Saturday. Indeed, there's a significant difference in experience between these teams. Northwestern brought most of its team back. Maryland did not. As if things weren't bad enough for the Terps, QB Josh Jackson opted out, along with a handful of others. Jackson was one of six players who chose not to play due to pandemic-related issues. Not good for a team which was already lacking depth and experience. The Wildcats are stingy defensively and their veteran defensive unit is going to be tough to score on. Last year, this unit ranked 25th in the country in total defense. On the other side of the ball, new coordinator Mike Bajakian will have the offense playing with more pace and we should see an improvement on that side of the ball. These teams last met in 2017. The Wildcats won by 16. Expect another double-digit victory for the more experienced Wilcats Saturday. 

I'm playing on VIRGINIA. There are some early similarities between the Demon Deacons and the Cavs. Both have 1-2 SU records. Both are 2-1 ATS.   These teams already have a couple of common opponents. Both have played Clemson. Both have played NC State. Each team went 0-2 in those games. Virginia's win was arugably more impressive though. The Cavs hammered Duke. Wake Forest's victory, though lopsided, was against lowly Campbell. (The Deacons were -34.5 point favorites.) So, the Deacons have yet to defeat a "real" team. While the Cavs may be without QB Brennan Armstrong, backup Lindell Stone completed 30 passes and threw three TDs last week. Coach Bronco Mendenhall noted: "Lindell did not have many practice reps at all with our offense. He was really working with our defense and helping us in that regard, and just that he came in and was effective and moved the football team, I was encouraged by that." Regardless of who is behind center, he'll be working behind an experienced offensive line and I expect the Cavs to get off to a faster start, something Mendenhall has been emphasizing. Mendehall also has an experienced and capable defense. Look for his team to emerge victorious, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on CLEMSON. The Tigers have won by "only" 24, 49 and 18 points. Thats led to a poor start at the betting window and some to question how good this year's team is. I expect a visit from Miami to "get them going." The Canes are their toughest test yet, which is why the Tigers aren't favored by quite as much as they were in previous games. Note that they're 6-2 ATS the past couple of seasons, as favorites in the -10.5 to -21 point range. During that span, they've gone 6-1 ATS in October, 14-4 ATS against winning teams and 15-5 ATS in conference play overall. The Canes are off a bye but that hasn't too helpful in recent seasons. They're 0-5 SU/ATS the past five times that they were in that situation. During that span, Miami was 4-9 ATS against teams with a winning record. While the Canes have indeed looked good, Clemson is the first winning team which Miami has faced this season. While Miami does have some great athletes, Clemson is still better on both sides of the ball. Expect the Tigers to silence their critics while providing Miami with a rude reality check.

I'm playing on LOUISVILLE. Both teams will be anxious to get back on track here. The Cardinals are more talented on both sides of the ball; I expect them to be the team which does so. In addition to giving up fewer points per game, the Cardinals average 29.7 ppg on offense, while GT averages just 19.3. After back-to-back games in the underdog role, Louisville finds itself favored again. The only previous time that the Cardinals were favored, they took care of business agianst Western Kentucky, a 35-21 win on 9/12. Meanwhile, this isn't a good look for the Yellow-Jackets. They're 0-5 ATS the last five times that they were listed as underdogs in the 3.5 to 10 point range, most recently losing by 28 (49-21 on 9/19) in that role earlier this season. Before slowing down at Pittsburgh, the Cardinals had racked up more than 500 yards against Miami. I expect them to have a big day against this defense and don't feel that the Jackets will be able to keep up.

I'm playing on BYU. This figures to be a one-sided blowout. The Cougars have crushed both opponents which they have faced. They beat Navy 55-3 and they beat Troy 48-7. They should be able to do the same to an LA Tech team which is essentially in rebuilding mode on defense. Yes, the Bulldogs are 2-0. However, they've given up 30 or more points in both games. Last game, Houston Baptist scored 38 against them. Indeed, BYU will have no trouble scoring. This hasn't been a kind role for the Bulldogs over the years; they're 6-14 ATS (1-19 SU) the past 20 times that they were underdogs in the 21.5 to 31.5 point range. I say the Cougars, 8-3 ATS their last 11 against CUSA opponents, put up a big number with the overmatched Bulldogs being unable to keep up. 

I'm playing on LOUISIANA MONROE. Off to an 0-2 start, the Warhawks will be happy to step down in class and into the favorite role. They're also going to be highly motivated to get that first win. As tight end Josh Pederson noted: "The guys are hungry for that first win. Obviously we’re not happy about the last two weeks, but this game is an opportunity for us to get on track and I definitely think this is a must-win week." Note that Louisiana Monroe faces a UTEP team which is just 7-14-1 ATS (0-22 SU!) the past few seasons, when listed as an underdog. Indeed, the Miners are among the worst teams in the country. They do have two wins this season but those came against FCS teams. They haven't beaten an FBS opponent or won on the road since 2018. Playing in a "must win week," I say the Warhawks pull away for a double-digit win. 

I'm taking the points with MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE. After back-to-back ugly losses to start the season, the Blue Raiders are going to be hungry to show everyone that they're better than those results indicate. Yes, they've struggled but this is a team they match up well against and they're coming in expecting to win. The Roadrunners are off to an impressive 2-0 start. However, keep in mind that one of those wins came by three points in double-OT and that the other came against lowly ranked Stephen F. Austin. After failing to cover in that game against Stephen Austin, the Roadrunners are just 4-9 ATS in home games the past couple of seasons, 1-3 ATS as favorites. Expect them to have their hands full once again. 

I'm playing on UAB. The Blazers lost QB Tyler Johnston to injury. That's not ideal. However, its been factored into the line and we're getting UAB at a bit better price as a result. Importantly, backup Bryson Lucero has played in both games and with the Blazers off last weekend, he's had plenty of time to prepare for the starting role. I believe that the Blazers, who started the season a 10-point win before losing at Miami, have a talent advantage in this one. Keep in mind that this is an extremely experienced UAB team, one which feels capable of winning the rest of its games. Indeed, UAB returned 18 starters. The Blazers are 14-6-1 ATS in recent seasons when laying points and they're 4-1 ATS when coming off a bye. Look for the Blazers, who rarely lose in their home state, to improve on those stats, delivering a statement win over their "instate rival." 

I'm playing on SOUTHERN MISS. The Bulldogs are off a good season and they've got a 'big name' coach. This is a unique 'pandemic situation' though. LA Tech didnt play its first game due to Covid issues. It wasnt just a few players either. Nearly the entire roster has been out; more than 50 players were unavailable for the Baylor game. They've been dealing with extensive testing and stress and have been unable to properly practice or prepare. Hurricane season doesn't help matters. Remember, the Bulldogs lost a lot from last year's defense, too. Meanwhile, Southern Miss already has a game under its belt and now they've had a chance to work out some of their issues. The fact that the Golden Eagles lost that one should add to their determination here. The South Alabama loss notwithstanding, the Golden Eagles are typically pretty tough at home. Expect them to show no sympathy for their guests in this one. 

I'm playing on KANSAS. Last year, here at Memorial Stadium in Lawrence, Coastal Carolina beat Kansas by a score of 12-7. It was the first time that the Chanticleers had EVER beaten a 'Power 5' school. Needless to say, Les Miles and co. haven't forgotten. While the Jayhawks are young, they're still the more talented team here. The fact that they don't have to travel more than 1000 miles during a pandemic also works in their favor. Coastal Carolina coach Chadwell acknowledged that travel presents challenges: "They know we can lose somebody today to quarantine or whatever it may be. Until we get on that plane, there is going to be some apprehension ..." Addtionally, Coastal Carolina had to relocate due to Hurricane Dorian. (The Chanticleers stayed and training in South Carolina's Upstate region.) Les Miles knows his team needs to beat the likes of the Chanticleers. He'll have his team ready; I say its "payback time."

I'm playing on ND. The Irish hammered the Blue Devils 38-7 last season. That kicked off a stretch which saw the Irish close out their season by winning each of their final five games by 21 or more points. Expectations are very high this season and I look for the Irish, now part of the ACC, to make a statement in this one. While Duke is capable defensively, it won't be capable enough to stop this Irish attack. Indeed, ND brings back eight starters including QB Ian Book, who had 34 TDs against just six INTs last season. Speaking of Book, he was outstanding against the Blue Devils last season and that was at Duke. He threw for four TDs while gaining 139 yards on the ground. In fact, in that game, he became the first ND QB to throw for three or more TDs and run for more than 100 yards. Things were already bad on the offensive side of the ball for Blue Devils but losing starting center Wohlabaugh to a knew injury was a major blow. Of the chance to play in the ACC, Brian Kelly noted: "...Our players are excited though, quite honestly, that they get a chance to play for a championship - an ACC championship.'' Expect a blowout. 

I'm playing on UAB. Obviously, the Canes have the bigger name and hail from the bigger conference. They get to recruit the better players. That said, the Blazers have a lot working in their favor here. They've already got a game under their belts and put up 45 points in the process. They arguably played better than the 45-35 score indicates, too. Central Arkansas got a few scores off turnovers; UAB had a 459-293 edge in total yards, including a 233-100 rushing advantage. Having worked out a few kinks will help them here. Keep in mind that UAB went 9-5 last season and won a bowl game. While the Blazers return a number of key starters, the Canes lost a lot of them. Miami has struggled as a favorite in recent seasons and will have its hands full here. Grab the generous points.

FRIDAY 10* CFB MAIN EVENT (71% IN 2020) **OHIO/NEVADA**

While he came up short with the total in the Birmingham Bowl, Ben Burns already has a 5-2 (+$2,810) record with his top rated selections in 2020. He's putting that 71.43% RECORD on the line for this afternoon's Idaho Potato Bowl. Don't miss it!

I'm playing on OHIO. Nevada has the better record and played in the tougher conference. Yet, Ohio is favored. What gives? Indeed, a lot of people are likely going to be quick to grab the points, based on the records/conferences alone. However, in my opinion, the Bobcats are favored for good reason. In fact, I expect them to win this one by double-digits. Here are a few of the reasons why. The Bobcats outscored teams by 92 points this season. Nevada, on the other hand, was outscored by 129 points. The Bobcats could have easily had a better record, as they lost four games by a field goal or less. The Bobcats have a big edge on offense. In addition to their experienced coach, they've got an excellent senior QB, working behind a solid offensive line and complemented by a pair of capable backs. They'll be working against a depleted Nevada defense which has a few interim head coaches, after Casteel got fired and which is dealing with multiple suspensions. Ultimately, I believe the Bobcats will put up a big number and I don't expect Nevada to be able to keep up.

I'm playing on GEORGIA. Yes, the Bulldogs just got hammered by LSU. However, in case you haven't heard, the Tigers are extremely strong this season. So, there's not much shame in getting blown out by them. After thumping the Bulldogs, LSU went on to smash the Sooners. Yes, the same Sooners who beat Baylor, twice. Georgia still outscores teams by a dominating 33.5 to 12.1 margin. Only Clemson (11.5) allows fewer points per game. Baylor allows 19.3 ppg. While Georgia allows 273.4 ypg, the Bears allow 358.9. While Baylor is 1-4 ATS its last five off a bye, the Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS their last six off a bye. Expect their superior defense to prove the difference, the Bulldogs pulling away for a double-digit victory. 

I'm playing on OHIO STATE. I successfully played against the Buckeyes in the Big Ten Championship. They were facing a revenge-minded Wisconsin team which had a bigtime back and which was coming in full of confidence. The Buckeyes took the Badgers' best punch but stormed back to still win by 13. To most, Clemson's 62-17 win over Virginia was probably more impressive. However, I'd also backed the Cavs in their previous game, a 39-30 win over archrival V-Tech. The Cavs. not nearly as strong as Wisconsin in the first place, were still celebrating snapping their skid against the Hokies and never really believed they would beat Clemson. I guess what I'm trying to say is that I was not more impressed with Clemson's win than I was with Ohio State's win. Really, I believe the closer win and the fact that they were tested will serve the Buckeyes better than Clemson winning in another blowout. Overall, the Buckeyes' schedule was arguably much tougher too, not just that final game. Thats going to serve them well here as they've faced plenty of quality teams while Clemson hasn't really done so. Over the years, Clemson is 30-31 ATS when playing a line with a game in the +3 to -3 range. During the same span, the Buckeyes were 30-16-2 ATS when playing a game with a line in that range. During that span, they were also 31-19 ATS when getting points. While I respect the Tigers, I believe the wrong team is favored. Ohio State gets it done. 

I'm playing on TEXAS A&M. This line has come down and I feel thats providing excellent value with the favorite. The Aggies have taken on the likes of Alabama, Auburn and Clemson. You may recall they very nearly beat both "Tiger" teams, losing by four to Auburn and just two against Clemson. The Cowboys aren't in the same class. Despite taking on some of the best teams in the country, the Aggies still allow an average of just 22.7 ppg. Oklahoma State, on the other hand, allows 27. While there will be a lot of talk about having their running back (Chuba Hubbard) healthy, its important to note that the Cowboys will be without their star safety (Kolby Harvell-Peel). Texas A@M already had the better defense and his absence makes the Cowboys' unit that much weaker. Meanwhile, the Cowboys other starting safety will have to sit for the first half due to targeting in the OU game. It all adds up to a win and cover for the Aggies. 

I'm playing on UTAH State. While the Golden Flashes went on a nice run to get here, I believe that there's a class difference between these teams. The Aggies arguably underachieved this season but this is there chance to show everyone they're better than what we saw from them in the reg. season. They played in the tougher conference and their more difficult schedule will serve them well here. Despite the more difficult conference, the Aggies scored more points and compiled more yards, while allowing fewer points and fewer yards. Kent State was fortunate in the turnover department but thats not something that can be relied on consistently. With an O/U line in the mid-high 60s, this should be a high-scoring game. That suits the Aggies fine. They're 17-8 ATS their last 25, when the O/U line was set at 63 or higher. Expect them to improve on those stats with a double-digit win here. 

I'm playing on WISCONSIN. I won with the 'under' when the Buckeyes beat the Badgers earlier in the season. It was only 10-0 at halftime before getting a bit dicey in the second half. The Buckeyes won 38-10. That was at Columbus though and now the game is being played at Lucas Oil Stadium, at Indianapolis. Yet, the Buckeyes opened as even bigger favorites for this one than they closed as for the first game. Thats not giving much respect to the Badgers and its offering us excellent value. Wisconsin's Jonathan Taylor had this to say: "Very motivated. I know my team will try to lean on me to make plays. I have to make sure I'm ready this week." With Taylor bouncing back with a much better effort than he had in the first game, look for the Badgers to improve to 3-0 ATS the past three times that they attempted to avenge a loss of 21 or more points. 

I'm playing on OKLAHOMA. The Bears were up 31-10 at halftime in the first meeting and they still couldn't win. Having squandered that opportunity, they won't get another one. Prior to that 34-31 comeback thriller, the Sooners' last win against the Bears came by 33 points. I believe that there's still a talent difference. The earlier meeting and Baylor's big win againt Kansas have helped us by keeping the line in single digits. Remember, the Sooners were a -10.5 point favorite for the first meeting and that was at Baylor. Off an 18-point win at OSU to close out the season, look for the Sooners to get off to a much better start in this one, keeping the pedal to the metal the entire way and improving to 6-2 ATS (8-0 SU) the past eight times that they were off a double-digit road win. 

I'm playing on NC STATE. Though they didn't win, I like the effort the Wolfpack showed in battling back against G-Tech last game. (They're 7-2 SU/ATS over the years off a road loss of three or less.) Obviously, they're going to be fired up to host their instate rival. With the line having risen to double-digits, I believe we're getting outstanding value. Note that the Tar Heels are only 4-7-1 ATS as favorites the past couple of seasons. I like the fact that NC State has had a couple of extra days to prepare; their last game came on a Thursday. The Wolfpack won by six at North Carolina last year and they beat the Heels by 12 here the previous year. UNC might find a way to win this year but if they do, its NOT going to be easy. Grab the points. 

I'm playing on CSU. This line has risen from its opener and I believe its providing us with excellent value on the home underdog. The Broncos were favored by 6.5 points their last visit here, winning by seven. You may remember that one, the Broncos were undefeated at the time but the Rams gave them a real scare, leading 35-17 at halftime. While the Broncos could be looking ahead to bigger things to come, the Rams will honor 13 seniors before the game, their last of the season. The weather is likely going to be ugly; as of Wednesday that they had 100 workers in their shoveling snow. That may well favor what is going to be a determined home team. Grab the points. 

I'm playing on VIRGINIA. I successfully backed the Hokies when these teams met last Black Friday. The Cavs were -5.5 point favorites but the Hokies won outright by a field goal. This time, its the Hokies who are favored. Once again, I'll be backing the underdog. While I do expect the Cavs to win outright, having an extra field goal to work with, in a game which could well be decided by a field goal or less, is a comforting feeling. Off three straight wins, the Cavs come in full of confidence. Last time out, they hammered Liberty 55-27, a game which saw them rush for a season high 227 yards. It was the most points they scored in a game since 2004. While the Hokies are off b2b blowout wins, both in shutout fashion, its worth noting that they're only 1-3 SU/ATS the past couple of seasons, when off b2b wins of 21 or more points. The Cavs, meanwhile, are 5-0-1 ATS after scoring 24 or more points in the first half of their previous game. Expect at least another cover Friday afternoon.

I'm playing on UTAH STATE. While I respect the Broncos, I expect them to have their hands full here. Last year's game was decided by single-digits and that was at Boise. Now, the Broncos are on the road where they're 0-2 ATS their last two. The Aggies, who average better than 500 yards of offense per game here at home, are off back-to-back wins. The fact that they were both close ones should serve them well here. They're coming in confident they can score the upset. The Aggies are 4-1 ATS the last five times that they were home underdogs in the +7.5 to +10 range. Expect them to improve on those stats with AT LEAST a cover tonight and don't be surprised by the outright win. 

Im playing on NIU. While neither team is exactly stout defensively, the Huskies have the edge in that department. They allow 27.9 ppg (12.3 at home!) and 386.2 (217.3 at home!) yards. Eastern Michigan, on the other hand, allows 31.3 ppg and 435.2 ypg. The Eagles got a big win last time out. However, that was at Akron. Now, they're playing their second straight on the road, while taking a considerable step up in class. While we have to go back some time, note that the Eagles are 3-9 ATS the past dozen times they were off a double-digit conference win and 1-4 ATS (0-5 SU) when off a conference win of 21 or more. The Huskies have been to seven of the last nine MAC title games. They still have a shot to get back but would need to win out and get some help. Either way, in order for them to be bowl eligible, they need to win both this game and the next. They found a way to beat Toledo, eking out a 3-point win. They're 11-3 the past 14 times that they were off a win of three or less, 3-1 (SU and ATS) the past four. Speaking of close wins, the Huskies have won the last two between these teams by scores of 26-23 and 30-27. Back home and desperate for a victory, expect them to find a way once again. 

I'm playing on KENT STATE. The Bulls hammered the Golden Flashes, at Buffalo, last season. Playing at home, I expect a much better effort from the Golden Flashes this year. While they've dropped three in a row, the Golden Flashes continue to play hard; they've covered three of four and four of six. Admittedly, the Bulls have looked impressive in beating up some bad teams lately. While they did have last week off but this still marks their second straight on the road, the first time they've played in that situation. Also, note that the Bulls are just 1-4 SU/ATS the past five times that they were off a win of 28 or more. Conversely, the Golden Flashes are 6-3 ATS the past couple of seasons, when off b2b conf. losses, 3-1 ATS when off three straight conf. losses. While I like the Flashes' chances of an outright win, I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on SOUTH CAROLINA. I believe that the Gamecocks are catching the Mountaineers at exactly the right time. Prior to last week, Appalachian State had a perfect record, a national ranking and huge dreams. All that changed with an upset loss against Georgia Southern last week. The common line of thinking is that previously undefeated teams tend to immediately bounce back after their first loss. However, I've often found that the opposite is true. Of course, winning this game was never going to be easy for the Mountaineers, regardless of what happened against Georgia Southern. The Gamecocks got their confidence back with a 24-7 win last time out and now they're getting some injured players back. With Texas A&M and Clemson on deck, this is absolutely a must win. Expect them to rise to the occasion, moving to 4-0 ATS as home favorites. 

I'm playing on OLE MISS. Auburn is obviously the more talented team. Off last week's loss, many will expect the Tigers to bounce back with a blowout win. However, while I respect the Tigers, I believe this will prove to be a far tougher game than is being suggested by the line. Last week's loss at LSU was huge. Note that Auburn is 4-10-1 ATS its last 15, off a loss of three or fewer points. Up next, after a bye, is Georgia, another huge game. With this game sandwiched in between those two huge game and with the Tigers off three straight SEC road games, its going to be difficult for the Tigers to "get up." Four of the Rebels' five losses have come by 11 points or less. They're 3-1 ATS off a loss. While the Tigers are still thinking about what might have been - and whats to come ahead, the Rebels are off a bye and are going to be extremely focused on trying to get themselves a signature win. Look for the Rebels to come ready to play and for them to give their hosts all they can handle the entire way. 

I'm playing on WASHINGTON. While I respect the Utes, I believe they're going to run into a problem on Saturday afternoon. The last three games in this series have had scores of 10-3, 21-7 and 33-30, all in favor of the Huskies. Washington, 7-1 SU in November the past couple of seasons, is coming off a bye. They've had a full extra week off than the Utes. The Huskies could easily have a better record as they lost by one vs. Cal and by four vs. Oregon. The Utes did win big in their last game on the road. That was at Oregon State though. Prior to that, in their previous road game, they lost at USC. While I'll happily grab the points, I say the Huskies find a way of winning a close one here. 

I'm playing on UCONN. Admittedly, the Huskies aren't the best team around. However, playing at home on National TV, they're good enough to hang within four touchdowns of Navy. The Midshipmen are just 2-4 ATS as road favorites the past couple of seasons. The Huskies played Houston tough here in their last home game, losing by seven as a 21.5 point underdog. Then, they gained some confidence by beating up on the Minutemen. Look for them to carry the positive momentum into this evening's game, covering the big number and improving to 3-0 ATS the last three times that they were home underdogs of greater than 14 points. 

I'm playing on UTAH STATE. Big game for both teams. In my opinion, its even bigger for the Aggies. I absolutely expect them to be ready. Indeed, unlike other teams and coaches, Coach Anderson prepares for this game all season long. He was quoted as saying: "Camp, spring ball, bye weeks, the day after Christmas. Whenever we find an opportunity to squeeze in a few moments of Air Force, we'll absolutely do it. You have to in my opinion." That gives Utah State over other Air Force opponents, as the Aggies are more prepared for the Falcons' unique attack. I like the fact that Air Force is off a late game at Hawaii last week. Thats a long way to go and something many of these kids aren't familiar with. The Aggies are playing with a lot of confidence. They've only lost twice this season. The first was by three points, at Wake Forest. The second was at LSU. No shame in that. They already responded to the LSU loss by crushing Nevada (36-10) last week. The Aggies have won at San Diego State. So, they know they can win on the road. They beat the Falcons by 10 last year after the previous season's game was decided by a field goal. With Air Force just 6-16 ATS over the years, when playing a home game with an O/U line in the 56.5 to 63 range, in a game where I expect the underdog to win outright, I'm happy to grab the points.

I'm playing on DUKE. I successfully played against the Blue Devils last week. So, I wasn't surprised to see them lose, at Virginia. However, I like how they match up - and how this game sets up - much better this week. While the Blue Devils got hammered at UVA, the Tar Heels suffered a far tougher loss. They fell 43-41 to the Hokies, at Blacksburg. In case you missed it, that was a wild 6-OT affair, the longest game in ACC history. To end up on the wrong side of it will be very tough to bounce back from. (UNC is 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS its last seven off a conference road loss.) Note that Duke also played at Lane Stadium; the Blue Devils crushed the Hokies 45-10. So, they know how to win on the road. Also, note that Duke is already 2-0 off a loss this season, winning 45-13 and 41-23. The Blue Devils are 8-2 ATS their last 10 as road underdogs and they're a perfect 3-0 ATs the past three times that they allowed 42 or more points in their previous game. The Blue Devils have had their way in this series recently. Catching the Heels at right time, expect that to continue Saturday afternoon. 

I'm playing on HOUSTON. Last year, when these teams met at Dallas, the Cougars were ranked #18 in the country. Favored by two touchdowns, they lost outright. Now, we've got a role reversal. This time, its the Mustangs who enter the game with the national ranking while listed as the road favorite. Like last year, I believe that the home underdog has a real shot at the outright win. While every game is now crucial for the Mustangs, while playing on a short week, it might be easy to look past Houston and ahead to Memphis. Either way, I expect them to have their hands full. Needless to say, the Cougars haven't forgotten last year. While this season has been a disappointment, a win tonight will do a great deal to salvage it. They're going to go all out to get it. I played on the Cougars the last time these teams met here and they rewarded me with a 35-22 win and cover. With the Mustangs just 1-6 ATS the past seven times that they played a road game with an O/U line of 63 or greater, I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on UTAH. The Utes are the superior team. They're playing at home. They're on a roll. Importantly, they've also got payback on their minds. Not only did the Sun Devils beat Utah 38-20 at ASU last season but they also beat the Utes by a 30-10 score, right here, the previous season. Utah, which was favored by -10 points for that game, hasn't forgotten. The Utes have only lost one game this season. That was at USC. Their other five games have all resulted in victories and ALL have come by more than 17 points. While the Sun Devils are off b2b upset wins, they're 0-2 ATS the past couple of seasons, when off b2b SU victories when listed as underdogs. The Utes are 16-9 ATS their last 25 as favorites. Determined to avenge the recent losses, exepct them to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way, en route to another convincing win. 

I'm playing on UNLV. The Bulldogs got hammered last time out, a 42-24 loss at Air Force. They're 1-2 ATS off a conference loss the past couple of seasons and they haven't won a game by more than 14 points this year. The Rebels bring some positive momentum into this game and they'll be confident. Last time out, playing on the road against an SEC team and listed as 16-point underdogs, they won 34-10. Granted, it was Vanderbilt. Still, that was an impressive win. The Rebels are quietly 10-4 ATS their last 14 as road underdogs. The Rebels won outright, as 3-TD underdogs, the last time that they played here. Grab the points. 

I'm playing on UTSA. While I successfully backed the Blazers in their last game, I feel that they're laying too many points this week. Last week's game was at home. This week, the Blazers are on the road. Off last week's big win and facing a team which they hammered last season, I believe that the Blazers will be ripe for a letdown this week. That'll prove costly though. UTSA is off its best game, arguably, in recent memory, a 26-16 win at UTEP. While the Blazers will be without their starting running back, the Roadrunners ran for more than 300 yards last week. The offensive line dominated and true freshman Sincere McCormick put up a program record 189 yards. The Roadrunners deep and experienced defensive line is also off an excellent game. The Roadrunners, who brought back considerably more starters from last year than did the Blazers, haven't forgotten last year's 52-3 shellacking at UAB. They played the Blazers tough here the previous season though, a 24-19 game. Note that UAB is just 10-19-1 ATS the past 30 times it was listed as a road favorite. Hungry for a "signature win," expect the Roadrunners to give their guests all they can handle once again. 

I'm playing on UAB. The Owls, now 0-5, are off a very tough loss last week. Fighting hard for its first win, Rice took LA Tech to OT last week. The Owls had a 14-7 lead at half. They were up 17-14 with less than two minutes remaining. They even held the lead (20-17) in OT. However, it was LA Tech which ultimately prevailed. While the Owls have battled, those are the type of losses that can be tough to recoved from, especially for a winless team starting to lose hope. I believe they're going to be susceptible to get blown out here. UAB is 3-0 ATS is last three off a conference loss and 7-1 ATS its last eight October games. The Blazers are also 11-3 ATS (14-0 SU!) their last 14 at home, as they have one of the longest home winning streaks around. Though they lost at WKU last week, the Blazers beat South Alabama by a score of 35-3 their last time on this field. The Blazers won 42-0 at Rice last season and 52-21 here the previous season. They're fully capable of bouncing back and blowing out a demoralized Owls team, once again. Expect them to do just that, keeping the streak in tact with another double-digit win. 

I'm playing on UTAH. While both teams lost last week, the Cougars' loss is going to be more difficult to bounce back from. In case you missed it WSU blew a 49-17 lead and went on to lose 67-63, the highest scoring game in Pac-12 history. Coach Leach commented: "Our guys got frantic and panicked. We collapsed in every phase of the game." Off that type of "collapse," I believe its going to difficult to play at this tough venue. The Utes have had an extra day of preparation (Utah played 9/20 while WSU played 9/21.) The Utes have payback on their minds as they lost at WSU last season and as the Cougars beat them here two years ago. The Utes are 8-3 ATS (10-1 SU) their last 11, as home favorites, 2-0 ATS as home favorites of seven on less. They're also 4-1 ATS their last five off a road loss, 3-0 ATS off a road loss when they were favored. Expect them to improve on those stats Saturday. 

I'm playing on NEBRASKA. Last week's results have helped to provide us with excellent value with the home underdog. The Buckeyes absolutely destroyed Miami Ohio while the Huskers barely eked out a win against Illinois. However, Illinois is actually a pretty decent team, at the least, the Illini are much stronger than Miami Ohio. Plus, Nebraska was on the road, while Ohio State was at home. I like the fact that the Huskers rallied to pull it off last week and that they had to fight to do it. While Ohio State has yet to be tested, the Huskers have now been involved in two close ones (both on the road) and that close game experience figures to serve them well. (Both home games have resulted in double-digit wins.) Speaking of close games, you may recall that Ohio State was a 17-point favorite for last year's game. However, it was the Huskers who were up 21-16 at halftime. The Buckeyes managed to escape with a 36-31 win but the cover was never in doubt for Nebraska. Its the first evening game for Ohio State all season; Lincoln can be a tough place to play and the crowd is going to be extremely fired up. Note that its the first ESPN "Gameday" at Lincoln in more than a decade. The Buckeyes are 0-2 ATS the past couple of times that they were off three consecutive covers. Expect them to have their hands full the entire way. 

I'm playing on ASU. Both these teams have been involved in some close ones lately. Cal is off a big emotional/controversial win over an SEC opponent in the Eastern time zone. The Bears hung on to win by eight. However, the game down to the final play. Note that Cal is just 1-3 ATS its last four off a road upset. The Bears previous two games were decided by six (against North Texas) and by just one, at Washington. Even their game against Cal Davis was relatively close, 14-point win. Likewise, ASU is off b2b 3-point games. I see another potentially close one, which makes the points very attractive. The Sun Devils have won at Michigan State. That was in front of more than 70,000 fans and a national TV audience. They're not afraid of the moment. Look for ASU to give its hosts all they can handle once again, improving to 7-2-1 ATS its last 10 as a road underdog.

I'm playing on UCLA. The Bruins' tough start has led to an extremely generous line, one which I feel is providing us with excellent value. When these teams last met, the Cougars were double-digit favorites but won by only six. I look for this one to also prove close. The Bruins first two games were both decided by 10 points or less. Sure, Oklahoma beat them by more than that. However, I don't put WSU in the class of the Sooners. Keep in mind this is an experienced UCLA team, one chomping at the bit to turn its season around. The Cougars, who won by only seven last time out, have a huge game against Utah on deck. Look for the Bruins to provide a much tougher game than many will be expecting, moving to 3-0 ATS their last three, after trailing by 17 or more points at the end of the first half of their previous game. 

I'm playing on TEXAS. The Cowboys have been living a lie. Their games have come against Oregon State, McNeese State and Tulsa. To their credit, they've taken care of business. However, the fact remains that they were double-digit favorites for each of those games, despite two of them coming on the road. Now, however, they're stepping up in class considerably while playing their third road game in the past four weeks. I expect reality to set in. While the Longhorns came up short vs. LSU, they rebounded by crushing Rice last game. They also hammered LA Tech in the first game. The Longhorns have a score to settle, as OSU has had their number of late. Back-to-back 3-point losses in the series have been particularly tough to swallow. This is a highly motivated Texas team, one which is 5-0 ATS its last five, off b2b non-conf. games. Expect them to get some payback, covering the relatively small number and moving to 4-1 ATS the past five times that they were a home faovrite of seven or less. 

I'm playing on TULANE. The Green Wave have a lot going for them here. They're off an absolute blowout (58-6) of Missouri State. That lopsided game allowed them to rest starters in the second half, preparing for this one. It was also at home, meaning no travel for the short week. On the other hand, Houston is off an emotional and hard-fought loss against Washington State. The Cougars left it all on the field for that one and may well experience a letdown because of. Note that they're 4-9 ATS the past couple of seasons, off an ATS cover, 0-1 ATS when off an ATS cover where the team lost SU as an underdog. Tulane is 9-4 ATS over the years, off a home blowout win of 28 or more. The home team has had the advantage in this series of late. Expect that to be the case again this evening, Tulane covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on WMU. Georgia State is off to a 2-0 start, including the upset of Tennessee, so is likely going to be a popular pick. However, I feel that the Broncos are favored for good reason and I expect them to bring the Panthers back down to earth. These same teams met at Georgia State last season. Despite playing on the road, the Broncos literally ran all over the Panthers, clearly outclassing them. For the game, they had a 294-58 edge in yards on the ground. They dominated in first downs and time of possession, en route to a decisive 34-15 win. While the win over the Vols was indeed impressive, giving up 42 points against Furman last week wasn't. With the Panthers just 1-8 SU/ATS the past nine times that they allowed 37 or more in their previous game, I'm laying the points and expecting another double-digit win for the Broncos. 

I'm playing on USC (10* PAC 12 GAME OF YEAR). As you may have heard, the Trojans lost their QB (Daniels) for the season last week. That means true freshman Kedon Slovis gets the call. The good news for Slovis is that he got some action last week, completing six of eight passes and that he's now had a full week to prepare, knowing that he'll be getting the start. While many are writing off USC with him behind center, new offensive coordinator Graham Harrell had this to say of Slovis: "I think, talent-wise, he's as good as I've ever seen..." Meanwhile, Stanford's QB (K.J. Costello) took a hard hit to the head last week and remains questionable, as of this writing. Thats a big blow, if he can't go, or isn't 100% healthy, as he led the Pac-12 in passing efficiency last season. Regardless of who is behind center for the Cardinal, they'll be without the services of all-conference left tackle Walter Little. Another huge blow. Losses to starters are particularly significant for the Cardinal as they didn't return many starters from last season in the first place. The home team has had its way in this rivalry of late. The Cardinal won at Stanford last year, the Trojans get some payback at home this year. 

I'm playing on OKLAHOMA. While everyone knows that the Sooners no longer have Murray as their QB, the cupboard is far from bare. The Sooners still have their offensive system in place and their offense is going to be just fine. Hurts takes over and he's got weapons at his disposal. Keep in mind that Oklahoma has averaged more than 45 ppg since 2015, leading the nation in most offensive categories during that span. On the other side of the ball, the Sooners brought back plenty of starters on defense. Speaking of defense, Houston is a team which doesn't play much of it. The Cougars are 3-7 ATS the past 10 times that they were road underdogs in the 21.5 to 28 point range. Oklahoma, meanwhile, is 7-3 ATS its last 10, when playing a home game with an O/U line of 63 or greater. I'm expecting the Sooners to win in a blowout.

I'm playing on WSU. At first glance, this line may appear a little higher. However, the reality is that it could be even higher, as this is an absolute mismatch. The poor Aggies, who will also have to play road games at Alabama and Ole Miss, know it. Coach Martin had this to say about the Aggies extremely tough schedule: "Football pays the bills. We're getting quite a bit of money to play Alabama and Ole Miss and Washington State. We understand that football has that priority ... This is one of the only years we'll ever play three power conference games. We'd like to stay away from that and limit that to two. It makes it more realistic for us. This is one of those challenging years and we’re going to accept it." Indeed. The Cougars have advantages all over their field. True, they lost last year's QB. However, the offense returned just about everyone else. The receiving corps is stacked, the offensive line is great. The offense will again be potent. The defense's weakness last year was against the run. However, they're going to be winning so much here that the Aggies are going to need to attempt to throw. It won't be pretty. The Cougars are out to prove last year wasn't a fluke. I expect them to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way, starting the season with a "statement blowout win."

I'm playing on LIBERTY. This is a dangerous game for Syracuse. Hugh Freeze takes over for the Flames. While he did have some past recruiting violation issues, Freeze also brings a winning attitude and a history of success. Freeze was 39-25 at Ole Miss with a couple of bowl wins. Prior to that, he was 10-2 at Arkansas State. Freeze inherited plenty of offensive talent. The Flames averaged better than 33 ppg last season and they return their top passer,  top rusher and top receiver. QB Calvert threw for more than 3000 yards in 12 games, finding the end zone 22 times. While last year's defense was admittedly pretty soft, Freeze's team does bring back five of its top six tacklers. The Orange, who lose QB Dungey who had a lot of heart and more than 9000 career passing yards, will score some points, probably quite a few of them. However, I expect the Flames to be able to keep up. The Orange gave up some big plays last year and they've got a lot of new faces on defense. Syrcause coach Babers acknowledged as much: "The first game that we have is a quality opponent with an outstanding head coach that’s known for his offensive genius. It's going to be a difficult game for us, especially since we don’t have any tape of him with that personnel." Regardless of what Babers may say to his team, with Maryland on deck next week, followed by a huge game vs Clemson after that, the Orange could easily overlook the Flames. In a game which I feel will be a lot closer than most will be expecting, I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on MICHIGAN STATE. Determined to make a statement, I see the Spartans keeping the pedal to the metal the entire way in this one. Tulsa's inexperienced offensive line is going to lead to trouble against the superior Spartan defenders all evening long. That will lead to problems for both the Tulsa throwing and running game. While Tulsa has a couple of decent backs, the Spartans are dominant against the rush. The Spartans struggled offensively last season and this is an opportunity to show that this year will be different. Tulsa allowed an average of 34.5 ppg on the road last season. Expect a blowout. 

I'm playing on FLORIDA. While these rivals haven't met since 2013, I expect the Gators to have a significant advantage in the season opener at Orlando. The Hurricanes would love to get their 'new era' off to a winning start and beating Florida would sure be a great way to do it. Thats asking an awful lot though. Consider that Miami has a new coach, a new offensive coordinator and a ton of new players. The Gators, on the other hand, are off a 10-win season under Dan Mullen. The Gators are looking to build off that and have the pieces in place to do so. They know if they can beat Georgia, that the sky's the limit for them. It all starts here, however. Speaking of Mullen, don't forget that he was passed over for the Miami coaching job. Twice, in fact. Whatever he may say, winning big is going to feel extra special. Expect the Gators, 6-2 ATS their last eight non-conf games, to win by double-digits. 

I'm playing on ALABAMA (10* GAME OF MONTH). I won with Clemson (plus the points) AND the 'over' when these teams met on 1/11/16. In 2017, I stayed away from the 'side' but again won with the 'over.' Last season, I switched things up, winning with both Alabama and the 'under.' (Alabama won 24-6.) This year, I'm coming right back with the Tide. Obviously, these are both excellent teams, extremely well-coached, strong on both sides of the ball. I think Alabama is just a bit stronger though. The Tide got their wake-up call vs. the Sooners and thats going to serve them well here. They know they need to be better and they will be. The Tide are 3-0 ATS the past three times that they both scored and allowed 30 or more points in their previous game. During that span, they're also 5-1 ATS when off of two or more consecutive ATS losses. Like last year, expect them to pull away for another win and cover. 

I'm playing on NOTRE DAME (10* GAME OF YEAR). Having successfully played against the Irish in the past, I'm well aware that they haven't always come through when forced to step up and take on elite teams in bowl games. That said, I believe that this year's team is different. While I absolutely respect the Tigers, also a great team, I believe that the Irish can (and will) absolutely compete the entire way. This is a team without a weakness. They brought back a ton of experience from the team which rallied to beat LSU on New Year's Day last year. That was the first New Year's Day win for the Irish since 1994. Having achieved that goal, this team is hungry for more. They've won with defense. They've won with offense. They've won in blowouts and they've shown an ability to win close games. Speaking of close games, you may recall these teams playing a few years ago, at Death Valley. The Tigers had to hang on to win by only two points. While Clemson was already really good, this year's Notre Dame is arguably better than that one. The Tigers have been able to dominate on the ground against weak rush defenses. However, thre teams ranked in the top 30 against the run were able to slow down Clemson. I expect the Irish, who have the best defense that the Tigers will have seen, to have success against the Tiger run game, forcing them to the air. Don't be surprised when this one isn't decided until the final play, the "luck of the Irish," shining on Notre Dame.