Sports Picks & Predictions

10 Unit Play. #453 Take Minnesota Vikings over Philadelphia Eagles (Sunday 1 pm FOX) The Eagles are in freefall at the moment having lost two straight games to mediocre teams (Detroit & Washington) and now must face the best defense in the league. QB Carson Wentz is starting to get found out and one must remember that he is still a rookie and set the bar so high during the first three weeks of the season. Philadelphia did not score an offensive touchdown last week and their vaunted defense is starting to show some cracks giving up 231 rushing yards last week at Washington. The Eagles are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games as a home underdog. 

10 Unit Play. #401 Take Auburn Tigers over Arkansas Razorbacks (Saturday 6 pm ESPN) The line on this game is very telling! Both teams have two losses and Arkansas is ranked higher than Auburn the polls yet the Tigers come in as close to a double-digit favorite. Arkansas had to run the gauntlet the first three weeks of conference play with games against Texas A & M, Alabama, and Ole Miss. It is hard to believe that they will have much left in the tank for this game especially since they have yet to have a bye this year (this is their 8th game in 8 weeks). Auburn is coming off a bye and they enter this game on a three game winning streak. Auburn lost a 4OT game to Arkansas last year but Auburn is trending way up in 2016. The Tigers are 12th in the country in rushing and the Razorbacks are 80th in the country in rushing defense. 

10 Unit Play. #469 Take San Diego Chargers over Oakland Raiders (Sunday 4:25 pm CBS) NFL GAME OF THE MONTH.The Chargers get up for this game and have covered the spread in 3 of the last 4 meetings (won both meetings last year). The Chargers are playing good football; they are just blowing leads in the fourth quarter. Oakland has never handled being the favorite well, going 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games when they are favored at the Coliseum. Taking these stats even further, the underdog in this series has covered the spread in 13 of the last 14 games. The Chargers could easily be 4-0 on the season, and I see this game going down to the wire as well. San Diego is scoring over 30 points per game, and Oakland is in the bottom three in yards allowed (rushing and passing). The stats all favor the Chargers, and expect them to protect the football and win this game straight-up. 

10 Unit Play. #214 Take Boise State Broncos over Utah State Aggies (Saturday 10:15 pm ESPN 2) The Mountain West is a battle between two teams for the top spot and Utah Stat is not one of those teams. Boise State has traditionally dominated this league and this match-up going 12-1 against Utah State. That being said the Broncos were embarrassed last year in Logan losing 52-26 despite being a 9-point favorite. That loss was solely on the play of the Broncos giving away the game with 8 turnovers. Utah State has been on a downward trend after reaching the pinnacle in 2012 going 11-2. They lost to Akron last year in a bowl game (The Zips first ever bowl win) and they are just 2-2 this season. Coach Matt Wells has messed up the offense with a rotation of numerous quarterbacks over the last couple of years and now falls to Kent Myers, a former wide receiver. He showed some promise earlier in his career but like most of their quarterbacks has gotten worse the more he plays and gets coached. The Broncos are back to normal and they are on a mission to run the table and still have an outside shot at a spot in the college football playoff if San Diego State continues to win games as well. Their game last week against Oregon State was not as close as the final score would indicate and you can be sure they will not take this game lightly whatsoever. Utah State is 2-8 ATS (1 push) in their last 11 games. The last time these two teams met in Boise is was a 50-19 victory for the Broncos and that was against a more talented Aggies team that what they will see on Saturday. 

10 Unit Play. #468 Take Jacksonville Jaguars over Baltimore Ravens (Sunday 1 pm CBS) AFC GAME OF THE YEAR. The line on this game tells me a great deal. The Jaguars have been a doormat for most of their existence and are 0-2 facing a 2-0 team. Yet this is a pick’em game and all of the public will be lining up to put down their money on Baltimore. That being said Baltimore was outplayed by Cleveland last week and going on the road for a second consecutive week will be too much for them to overcome. If Baltimore holds as a favorite once must consider the stat of 2-10 ATS (2 pushes) in their last 14 games as a favorite. Jacksonville is desperate for a win here as many experts believe that this is a talented enough roster to challenge for a playoff spot in the AFC this season. Jacksonville is 6-2 ATS (1 push) in their last 9 games following a game in which they scored less than 15 points. This is not a sexy pick but like Los Angeles last week it is one that should grab the money. 

10 Unit Play. #384 Take Tennessee Volunteers over Florida Gators (Saturday 3:30 pm CBS) I just cannot get out of my head how well Tennessee played to close out the 2015 season. Sooner or later they will get back to that level since they return most of their 2015 talent. It has not really happened this season but this is the game they will breakout and performance at a high level. They have no excuses not to be up for this game since Florida has beaten them 11 straight years. But the Gators will be without their starting quarterback and that does not bode well playing in a hostile environment. All three of Tennessee’s victories this season have come over the posted number for today’s game. Tennessee is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS loss in their previous game. Florida is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games.  

10 Unit Play. #167 Take Oregon Ducks over Nebraska Cornhuskers (Saturday 12:30 pm ABC) Nonconference Game of the Year. Do not be misled by the final score of the Wyoming – Nebraska game last week. It was 24-17 before Wyoming had four consecutive turnovers giving Nebraska 28 fourth quarter points and the cover. Oregon will not be as giving and will make Nebraska go the length of the field in order to score points. That is something QB Tommy Armstrong struggles to do, as he did not look that impressive last week and has trouble hitting is receivers in stride. Throw in the fact that Mike Riley is just 4-10 against Oregon and we will gladly take the points with the better and more talented team. The Ducks will never reach the heights they did under Marcus Mariota but they still have an explosive system that can put on points in the blink of the eye. Despite being a decent Michigan State team last year with the help of a controversial call, Nebraska has underperformed in big games through most of the last decade and whenever fans start to believe in this team they just lay an egg. Oregon is 22-5 ATS in their last 27 road games. The points are just icing on the cake as Oregon will win this game straight-up. 

10 Unit Play. #462 Take New Orleans Saints over Oakland Raiders (Sunday 1 pm FOX) We went against the Raiders are our top selection in the preseason and will do so yet again in Week 1 of the Regular Season. Just feel this team is vastly overrated and people are forgetting how poorly they closed out the 2015 Regular Season. Although the Saints have not been as dominating in New Orleans the last couple of years compared to 2011-2013, it is still an extremely difficult place to play and something the Raiders have not done so in 8 years. It is always tough for a west coast team to play an early Sunday game and Oakland is just 1-18 straight-up when the game starts at 1 pm eastern time. Oakland is equally as bad on the road in general winning just 6 of their last 32 road games. Drew Brees is still the best player on the field and he has covered the spread against Oakland seven straight games. New Orleans covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 games in 2016.  

10 Unit Play. #364 Take Mississippi State Bulldogs over South Carolina Gamecocks (Saturday 7 pm ESPN 2) SEC Game of the Year. We went against the Bulldogs last week and won outright despite getting 28.5 points! Now the odds makers feel that the public will overreact to that game and put a pile of money on South Carolina since they won on the road last week in Nashville. That just sets up great for us and we will gladly lay less than a touchdown with a much better team that is used to the Dan Mullen system. Mississippi State should have knocked out South Alabama last week as they jumped out to a 17-0 lead before falling apart in the second half. South Carolina does not have a high powered offense and Will Muschamp was fired at Florida for his lack of innovation. South Carolina will not be able to cover this spread unless the score in the twenties and I expect them to struggle doing that. Both teams play multiple quarterbacks but Dan Mullen is the better offense coach and thus the Bulldogs will bounce back in a big way on Saturday. South Carolina is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games against teams with a losing record. Mississippi State is 14-6 ATS in their last 20 SEC games. Beating Vanderbilt is one thing, but Mississippi State is clearly a step-up from that bottom feeder program and will be USC by double digits allowing us to collect big in the process.  

10 Unit Play. #156 Take Michigan Wolverines over Hawaii Warriors (Saturday 12 pm ESPN) This is a ton of points to be laying but I just do not see anyway Hawaii keeps it close. Hawaii is faced with a brutal travel situation having played in Australia last Friday late night and now must come to Michigan this week. Hawaii faced two Big 10 teams last year in Wisconsin and Iowa and they failed to score a single point in either of those two games. I do not believe this Hawaii team is better than the 2015 version despite an upgrade in coaching. This is a complete rebuild for new coach and I believe they will lose this game by 50 points. Michigan is expecting big things this year and they could not ask for an easier start to the season with six of their first seven games at home. Michigan is 23-3 in home openers and if a bad Hawaii team can get pounded by Cal last week (backdoor covered that game) I just do not see that happening today. Jim Harbaugh is not the type of coach to take the foot of the peddle and allow Hawaii to backdoor cover this game. Michigan gets close to 60 points and wins this game and covers the spread. 

10 Unit Play. #311 Take New England Patriots over Denver Broncos (Sunday 3 pm CBS) The Patriots are favored on the road for a reason and we fully expect them to take care of business in Denver on Sunday. Denver came back to beat New England in the regular season but most felt that the Patriots got a bad whistle in that game. Denver has a good defense but I am just not sure their offense can make enough plays to win especially in the passing game. People are giving QB Peyton Manning to much credit for winning these last two games against depleted teams. Pittsburgh had a terrible secondary and Denver still did not do much in the passing game. The Patriots laid down during the last few games of the regular season in order to get healthy and we saw the fruits of that decision last week against Kansas City. I believe the Chiefs are a better team at the moment than the Broncos (won in Denver this year) and New England handled them with relative ease. Denver has scored just 1 touchdown in their last 27 drives during the playoffs. Denver is 1-5 ATS (1 push) in their last 7 playoff games. 

10 Unit Play. #306 Take Carolina Panthers over Seattle Seahawks (Sunday 1:05 pm FOX) NFL PLAYOFF GAME OF THE YEAR. I am just not putting all of Seattle’s offensive struggles on the cold weather last week. They played outstanding against Arizona in Week 17 but the two games in the last three weeks they played terrible. Carolina was a perfect 8-0 at home this season (6-2 ATS) and they have the better offensive team on the field. The Panthers were 4-0 against teams with a winning record (4-0 ATS) and Seattle was just 3-4 ATS (1 push) against teams with a winning record. This is a game Carolina and especially their coach and quarterback need to justify their place as one of the top teams in the league. They get it by 7-10 points and we collect big in the process as well. 

10 Unit Play. #108 Take Washington Redskins over Green Bay Packers (Sunday 4:40 pm FOX) The Packers have been in a downward spiral for the last part of this season and I just do not believe that they can put it together on Sunday. By now we all know the problems that this team faces and Washington is at home and riding high after finishing strong to close out the regular season and win the NFC East. The gameplan to beat the Packers has been simple, keep your men close to the line of scrimmage as the Packers are struggling to go over the top. Washington moves onto the second round and we collect in the process as well. Green Bay is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. Washington is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games. 

10 Unit Play. #105 Take Pittsburgh Steelers over Cincinnati Bengals (Saturday 8:15 pm CBS) Both teams have key players on offense that are questionable but regardless I see the Steelers rolling in this game. Pittsburgh has won 13 of their last 15 games in Cincinnati and expect that to hold true again on Saturday. Cincinnati has had no playoff success under Marvin Lewis and if things to do go their way early expect the sideline to become tight and panic will set it. Big Ben put up monster numbers this season passing the football and Pittsburgh just beat Cincinnati a few weeks ago. Pittsburgh is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 playoff games. Cincinnati is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 playoff games. 

10 Unit Play. #315 Take Oakland Raiders over Kansas City Chiefs (Sunday 4:25 pm CBS) I believe a little wind was taken out the Chiefs sails when Cincinnati blew a big lead against Denver on Monday Night Football. Now they face a divisional team with some injuries on defense playing a team with extra rest (Oakland played on Thursday last week). The Raiders have a chance to finish the season 8-8 and they have a winning record on the road. In the first game, Oakland was in control before turnovers proved costly in the fourth quarter. This is the final game of Charles Woodson’s career and I believe Oakland takes this game down to the wire. Oakland is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games. 

10 Unit Play. #231 Take Indiana Hoosiers over Duke Blue Devils (Pinstripe Bowl, Saturday, 12/26 3:30 pm ABC) Nothing better than watching a football game in a baseball stadium but that will be the case today when the Hoosiers invade the Big Apple. Indiana has a very shaky defense but a good offense that can put up points. But this play is more about going against Duke, as they have yet to recover from their loss to Miami that featured some bad calls by the officials. The Blue Devils would go on to lose their next three games and only beat Wake Forest by six points in their season finale. Duke gave up over 350 yards per game passing in their last four games and expect the Hoosiers to move up and down the football field. Duke has lost three straight bowl games and actually has not won a bowl game since 1961. Indiana finished the season strong with two blowout wins and was very competitive with Ohio State, Iowa, and Michigan. Indiana played a very difficult schedule and thus their 6-6 record does not look that bad. Duke is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Indiana is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 nonconference games. 

10 Unit Play. #328 Take San Diego State Aztecs over Air Force Falcons (MWC Championship Game, Saturday, 7:30 pm ESPN 2) Nobody expected the Aztecs to run the table in the MWC going a perfect 8-0 and they have yet to have a competitive game. Air Force still is a triple option and I expect the Aztec defense to be ready for it, as they have the best defense in the conference. The host team has won both MWC Championship games and tonight should be no different. SDSU has the best player in the league in Donnel Pumphrey and Air Force will have no answer for him, as the Falcons gave up 377 rushing yards last week against New Mexico. San Diego State is 4-1 against Air Force and a perfect 5-0 ATS. SDSU is 6-2 in their last 8 home games against Mountain West teams. Air Force is 5-11 ATS in their last 16 road Mountain West games. San Diego State has won 8 straight games by double digits and 10 straight home games against MWC teams (25 point margin of victory). This is a high powered train and we will ride them to another victory. 

10 Unit Play. #259 Take New York Giants over Washington Redskins (Sunday 1 pm FOX) I feel the Giants are the best team in the NFC East and expect a big effort from them coming off of their bye week. Washington looked terrible last week against Carolina with just 10 first downs and 185 yards of offense. The Redskins defense is coming apart, giving up a ton of points of late. New York has beaten Washington five straight times (5-0 ATS), including a double-digit victory in Week 3 this season. I just trust Eli Manning more than I do Kirk Cousins and expect a big performance from the Giants in this contest. New York is 5-1 ATS (1 push) in their last 7 road games. 

10 Unit Play. #195 Take Northwestern Wildcats over Illinois Fighting Illini (3:30 pm ESPN U) The Wildcats have rebounded nicely after a two-game losing streak to win their last four games. They are coming off a nice victory at Wisconsin and have a big advantage since this neutral game in being played in Chicago. The Illini need this game to become bowl eligible, but they will not get it since Northwestern is the better-rounded team. Illinois has lost five of their last six games, with their only win during this time coming against hapless Purdue. Northwestern is 18-7 ATS in their last 25 games following an ATS victory in their previous game. 

10 Unit Play. #473 Take Kansas City Chiefs over San Diego Chargers (Sunday 1:05 pm CBS) Thankfully this game got flexed out of Sunday Night Football, as the Chargers are certainly a team nobody wants to watch. Kansas City still has talent and they are starting to put it together having won three straight games including a dominating victory at Denver last week. The Chargers have just beaten Detroit and Cleveland this year and their home field advantage is nonexistent with the rumors that they are moving to Los Angeles next year. Kansas City beat San Diego both times in 2014 and the Chargers are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 years coming off a bye. San Diego has an uninspiring coach who will likely be replaced next year and they are just playing out the string. 

10 Unit Play. #407 Take Notre Dame Fighting Irish over Boston College Eagles (Saturday 7:30 pm NBC) The Eagles have a solid defense and a terrible offense. This team has trouble moving the football at all through the ground or the air and they are one of the worst offenses in the entire country. They have major quarterback issues and this is causing their defense to wear down as the season goes on. We went against Boston College in their last two home games as top plays and easily collected on both of them despite so-so teams in Virginia Tech and NC State. Notre Dame has a clear path into the playoffs if they just win out, but expect them to go for some style points in this night game on national TV. Both teams will be pumped about playing at Fenway Park, but I just do not see Boston College being able to score enough points to stay within this posted number. Boston College is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games. Notre Dame is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games. Notre Dame gradually increases their lead to wins this by close to 28 points. 

10 Unit Play. #253 Take Dallas Cowboys over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Sunday 1 pm FOX) We went against Tampa Bay numerous times this season including last week against another NFC East foe. Dallas is not going to make the playoffs this season but they have shown some improvement under Matt Cassel and are getting healthy at other spots besides quarterback. The Cowboys have covered 8 of their last 11 road games. QB Jameis Winston is just not ready to win consistently in the league and Tampa Bay is just 1-3 at Raymond James Stadium this season. This will not be a pretty game to watch but getting points with the better team is too good to pass up.

10 Unit Play. #467 Take New York Giants over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Sunday 4:05 pm FOX) The Giants have been an up and down team this year but we expect them to bounce back in a big way on Sunday. New York scored 49 points last week in New Orleans yet lost the game but I just do not believe the Buccaneers have the same offensive firepower that New Orleans does. With the Patriots on deck this is a game that the Giants need to get to keep their hopes of winning the NFC East alive. Tampa Bay has lost 11 of their last 12 home games and covered the spread in just three of those games. New York is 4-1 ATS (1 push) in their last 6 road games. Tampa Bay is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following an ATS victory in their previous game. 

10 Unit Play. #421 Take Michigan State Spartans over Nebraska Cornhuskers (Saturday 7 pm ESPN) If it has not become clear by now that the Mike Riley hire is a failure and the AD who made that hire is in serious trouble. Nebraska is 3-6 on the season and they have lost four of their last five games. This team has lost in a variety of ways but how you can give up 55 points to Purdue and lose by double digits is beyond me. Now they face the toughest team on their schedule and we will gladly lay this number with a team is starting to hit their stride. The Spartans are coming off of a bye and they have won two straight games against Nebraska. Last year’s final was 27-22 but it was not as close as it would seem with Nebraska trailing 27-3 in that game. The Spartans have not been as dominating as they were last year but they are still undefeated and played their best game of the season last time out putting up 52 points against Indiana. Michigan State still has a great quarterback in Connor Cook and he has 17 touchdowns on the season and just two interceptions. Nebraska QB Tommy Armstrong will likely return but much of his production has come in the second half or against bad teams. Michigan State is 18-7 ATS (1 push) in their last 26 road games. Nebraska is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games against teams with a winning road record. These two teams are heading in opposite directions and Nebraska cannot get out of its own way. 

10 Unit Play. #357 Take NC State Wolfpack over Boston College Eagles (Saturday, November 7th, 2015, 12:30 pm ESPN 3) We went against Boston College for our 6-unit selection last week against Virginia Tech and will come right back fading them this week. Boston College has a good defense but they have one of the worst offenses in the entire country. They have major quarterback issues and they have lost five straight games including just 300 yards of total offense combined in their last two games. NC State took a body blow from the best team in the ACC last week. They hung with Clemson for a little bit but just could not get off the field enough to win the game. They should have a much easier time stopping Boston College on Saturday, an Eagles team that cannot get out of their own way. North Carolina State is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games. Lay the points with the better team. 

10 Unit Play. #269 Take New York Jets over Oakland Raiders (Sunday 4:05 pm CBS) Everything in the world went right for three quarters last week for the Oakland Raiders in San Diego. But I always believe that there is not any carryover in the NFL from week to week and expect a much different outcome in this game. Unlike the Chargers, the Jets have a defense and a strong running attack. New York gave the Patriots all that they could handle for 60 minutes and feel just short when they could not get off the field on a couple of key third downs. This line opened as a pick but now the early money is coming on the Jets for good reason. Oakland has already lost two home games this season and this will be the best defense that they have faced all season. The Jets have covered 7 of their last 9 games (1 push). New York has beaten Oakland each of the last two years by an average margin of victory of 7.5. New York is 4-0 ATS (1 push) in their last 5 road games. Oakland has never handled prosperity well going 3-12 ATS (1 push) in their last 16 games following a victory in their previous game. 

10 Unit Play. #256 Take Arizona Cardinals over Cleveland Browns (Sunday 1 pm FOX) The Red Birds got backdoored on Monday Night Football last week settling for field goals and missing an extra point in the second half. That was a brutal beat for us but in a way it sets up this play. Arizona is loaded with talent on both sides of the football and they play an aggressive style of defense that will give the Browns fits for sixty minutes. The Browns will play better than they did against St. Louis but they have quarterback issues with Josh McCown questionable for this game and Johnny Manziel having some off the field issues. Cleveland is just 2-5 on the season and they have not played that great of a schedule as they have yet to play the Bengals or Steelers this season (two games left with each). Arizona is 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games following a pointspread loss in their previous game. Arizona is also 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games against teams with a losing home record. Cleveland is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games played during the month of November. 

10 Unit Play. #193 Take Virginia Tech Hokies over Boston College Eagles (Saturday 12:30 pm ESPN 3) Both teams are coming off heartbreaking losses last week but Virginia Tech has a much better offense than does Boston College. QB Michael Brewer is back from injury and this will be his second start since returning and he should be even better in this game. Boston College has a strong defense but a terrible offense evident by the fact they had only 79 total yards last week and 4 first downs against Louisville. Their 14 points were the result of two short fields with a blocked punt and a fumble return. Boston College has major quarterback issues and they are completing just 43% of their passes and that includes games against Maine and Howard. Boston College is 1-3 ATS (1 push) in their 5 home games. If Virginia Tech can ovoid turnovers they should roll to a victory. 

10 Unit Play. #463 Take Atlanta Falcons over Tennessee Titans (Sunday 1 pm FOX) We went against the Titans last week and won easily with Miami and expect a similar results with a better Atlanta Falcons team. Tennessee has lost four straight games since opening the season with a victory against Tampa Bay. Of those four losses (Buffalo, Cleveland, Miami, & Indianapolis) they have suffered none of those teams have an explosive offense like Atlanta does. The Falcons were their own worst enemy last Thursday against New Orleans and I fully expect them to clean that up in this game. The Titans also have quarterback issues with Marcus Mariota questionable for this game. Not a huge drop-off to their back-up but it is a drop-off nonetheless. Atlanta has covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 road games. Tennessee is 7-20 ATS (2 pushes) in their last 29 home games. 

10 Unit Play. #345 Take Utah Utes over USC Trojans (Saturday 7:30 pm FOX) Utah will put their undefeated record on the line tonight in Los Angeles taking on USC. The Trojans have an interim coach and they have already lost two games at the Coliseum this season. USC had some moments last week against Notre Dame but still suffered a double digit loss and I do not see them being able to turn things around tonight. USC has lost three of their last four games I believe Utah is a better team that Washington and Notre Dame. Utah has a very aggressive style of defense that will pose problems for Cody Kessler. Utah is very balanced on offense and getting points with the better team is just icing on the cake. Utah is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games. USC is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 home games against teams with a winning road record. 

10 Unit Play. #253 Take Cincinnati Bengals over Buffalo Bills (Sunday 1 pm CBS) This line has swung three points since it opened as a pick’em and it is apparent that the Bills are overvalued this season despite their talkative head coach. The Bills have already lost two home games this season and they are not ready to be among the elite of the AFC with Tyrod Taylor as quarterback. The Bengals are still a great team in the regular season and Andy Dalton is having a breakout season. He has numerous weapons to work with and should give the Bills defense all that they can handle. Cincinnati has covered 4 straight games against AFC teams. Buffalo is 7-20 ATS (1 push) in their last 28 games following a win in their previous game. 

10 Unit Play. #460 Take Kansas City Chiefs over Chicago Bears (Sunday 1 pm FOX) TOP NFL GAME OF THE WEEK. The Chiefs need a win in the worst way and we fully expect them to take out their frustration on Chicago this Sunday at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO. The Chiefs went 6-2 at home last season and outscored their opponents by 17 points per game during those six victories. The difference in this game will come down to the Chiefs defense, as they are still a dominating unit (despite the ranking) and should have no problem hitting the quarterback early and often. The Bears are not on the same level as Green Bay and Cincinnati and thus has double digit home victory written all over it. Chicago knows this is a rebuilding year and I just do not see them being able to win two games in a row. Chicago’s three losses have come by an average of 19.6 points and that will easily get us a cover with the favorite in this game. Chicago is 13-27 ATS (1 push) in their last 41 games. Kansas City is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against teams with a losing record. 

10 Unit Play. #407 Take San Jose State Spartans over UNLV Rebels (Saturday 9 pm the MWC) The Rebels were lucky to escape last week against Nevada as they did nothing in the second half but got a key pick-six to hang on for the victory. I do not see them being as fortunate in this game against San Jose State. I am a real big fan of Spartan QB Joy Gray and he has held his own against some stiff competition including Auburn last week. San Jose State actually outgained Auburn last week and should be the same this week since Rebel starting quarterback Blake Decker is out again this time with a shoulder injury. It is important for San Jose State to stop the running game of UNLV and if they do that they should be victorious. The Spartans have a pair of big name coordinators in Greg Robinson and Al Borges and expect them to come up with a solid gameplan to defeat a coach that was at a high school one year ago. SJSU is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games against teams with a losing record. UNLV has covered just 1 of their last 4 home games. 

10 Unit Play. #270 Take San Francisco 49ers over Green Bay Packers (Sunday 4:25 pm FOX) I always like to play home underdogs of seven or more points and I fully expect a much better effort by the 49ers today in Santa Clara. San Francisco has looked terrible in back to back road games but I am a big believer in that there is not much carryover from week to week in the NFL and every week is completely different. Green Bay is not the same team on the road as they are when playing at Lambeau Field and sooner or later their injuries will catch up with them. Green Bay will head west on a short week and this is a team they have not had any success against in the last 5 years. San Francisco is 3-0 ATS in the last six years when they have been a home underdog. QB Colin Kaepernick has been awful of late but Green Bay is a team he has had great success against and I expect him to be able to move the football with his arm or his legs. Green Bay still does not have a good defense and if the 49ers can hang onto the football I see this game going down to the wire. Green Bay has not won in San Francisco (Santa Clara) since 2006 and while that streak may end on Sunday, it will only come by a couple of points. 

10 Unit Play. #148 Take Oklahoma State Cowboys over Kansas State Wildcats (Saturday 4 pm FS1) We will come right back with the Cowboys in this game and feel they will be more relaxed than they were last week playing in Austin. We pushed with the Pokes in a game we should have won as the Longhorns offense was completely shut down in the second half. But key turnovers kept Texas in that game and we had to settle for a push. After a bad beat (push) I always like to use the same team against in the following week as things have a way of evening themselves out. The Wildcats have reverted back to Bill Snyder form in scheduling cupcakes during the nonconference portion of the season and they have not really looked that impressive in those games. They are coming off a bye but I do not believe they are ready for Big 12 play. They already share a common opponent in UTSA with the Pokes beating them by 55 points compared to a 27 point victory by the Wildcats. Oklahoma State also has revenge on their minds losing by 34 points last year in Manhattan but the home team has won 8 of the last 9 meetings. I am a big fan of DC Glenn Spencer and feel he will come up with a solid gameplan to stifle this questionable Wildcats offense. Oklahoma State takes better care of the football on Saturday and wins this game by double digits. 

10 Unit Play. #480 Take Dallas Cowboys over Atlanta Falcons (Sunday 1 pm FOX) This is a surprise match-up of 2-0 teams with nobody expecting the Falcons to be any good this season. The Falcons will be playing their second straight road games and that generally catches up with teams in the NFL. Expect Dallas to rise to the occasion with all of their injuries in the short term and I just do not believe the Falcons are ready to become an elite team in the NFL again. Dallas still has a dominating offense line and that will be the difference in this contest. 

10 Unit Play. #384 Take UTSA Roadrunners over Colorado State Rams (Saturday 7 pm CBSSN) The MWC has been one of the most disappointing conferences this season and the Rams must travel on the road for the first time this season. Colorado State should not be laying this many points to anybody on the road. CSU is coming off an overtime loss to Colorado and I expect them to come into this game a little flat. The Roadrunners have played a brutal schedule to open the season and they sit at 0-3 but those losses came against Oklahoma State, Kansas State, and Arizona. This is a fade play against the MWC. 

10 Unit Play. #288 Take Green Bay Packers over Seattle Seahawks (Sunday 8:30 pm NBC) We went against Seattle last week with St. Louis and will do the same this Sunday against the Packers. Seattle has a brutal schedule to open up the season with a pair of road games against teams that are motivated to beat them. Green Bay has waited a couple of years to host Seattle and you can expect revenge to be best served on the field. Green Bay dominated Seattle last year in the NFC Championship only to fall apart in the fourth quarter and be sent home a week before the big game. Seattle allowed Nick Foles to move the football on their defense and we only in that game because the Rams turned over the football. I just do not see Green Bay and Aaron Rodgers making that many mistakes. This is a game the fans of the Packers want in the worst way and they will pull away in the second half to win this game by double digits. 

10 Unit Play. #481 Take Tennessee Titans over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Sunday 4:25 pm CBS) This is one of the marquee match-up of Week 1 despite two terrible teams doing battle. At this point of the season I trust Marcus Mariota more than I do Jameis Winston. The Titans have won their last two road openers the last two years beating Pittsburgh and Kansas City, two better teams than they will see today against Tampa Bay. Expect Dick LeBeau to improve the Titans defense just enough to frustrate the new quarterback and allow Tennessee to win this game straight-up. 

10 Unit Play. #372 Take Nevada Wolf Pack over Arizona Wildcats (Saturday 7 pm CBSSN) Nonconference Game of the Year! We saw last week that many power five teams struggled to put away and cover the spread against mid-majors in true road games. Tonight we have a line that is way off the mark, as Arizona is not the team they were last year. These two teams have met twice in the last three years and both times Arizona was a big favorite but Nevada covered the game with relative ease. That included losing by just seven points last year in Tucson despite being a 19 point underdog. Arizona looked awful against UTSA last week and this is a Road Runner team that returned just 6 of 22 starters from a 4 win team last year. Arizona got two defensive touchdowns but gave up 29 first downs and 525 total yards to UTSA. Nevada always prides themselves on holding onto the football and winning the turnover battle and if they accomplish this they will take this game right down to the wire. Nevada’s game against UC-Davis was a little misleading, as they gave up two late meaningless scores to make the game closer than what it actually way. Nevada has a solid defense and despite breaking in a new quarterback should be able to move the football on this suspect Wildcat defense. Throw in the fact that Arizona will be without PAC-12 Defensive Player of the Year in Scooby Wright and that just means this line is way off the mark. Take the points and I truly believe Nevada has a great chance to win this game straight-up. 

10 Unit Play. #196 Take West Virginia Mountaineers over Georgia Southern Eagles (Saturday 4:30 pm ROOT Sports) The Mountaineers had an up and down season last year with some impressive wins but really feel apart down the stretch of the season losing 4 of their last 5 games. Now Dana Holgorsen is on the hot seat and he needs to get off to a good start and has three winnable games to open up the season. They returns most of their starters on defense but have to replace Clint Trickett at quarterback. To me this is a good thing as I never though much of the former transfer from Florida State. The open with Georgia Southern, a triple option team that ran the table in the Sun Belt last season. To me I always like playing against triple option teams coming off a long layoff as West Virginia has been able to focus all summer on stopping this attack. The Mountaineers are 15-1 in home openers winning by an average of 29 points per game. That will be good enough for a cover in this contest. 

10 Unit Play. #101 Take New England Patriots over Seattle Seahawks (Super Bowl 49, Sunday, 6:30 pm NBC) You can make a strong case for either side in this match-up and the line on this game is reflected in that. But it is almost impossible for teams to repeat in the NFL in this day and age and I do not see the Seahawks as the team that can break this trend. Seattle has a great defense when all parts of it are 100% but that will not be the case in this game as multiple plays are banged up for Seattle. New England is not Denver and I just do not see them laying down and not been physical in their own right. Denver had a soft coach and QB but New England has a 3-time Super Bowl Champion coach and quarterback and this is one that they want badly in order to prove their critics wrong. Seattle has been starting slow of late and Russell Wilson is coming off one of his worst games in his three year career against Green Bay two weeks ago. Once the Patriots smell blood they will go for the kill and not play conservatively like the Packers did against Seattle in the NFC Championship Game. New England is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games against teams with a winning record. 

10 Unit Play. #108 Take Indianapolis Colts over Cincinnati Bengals (Sunday 1 pm CBS) The Bengals have not had any success in the playoffs under the tenure of Marvin Lewis. The Bengals have lost in this round the last three years and this will be their third road games in the last four weeks. Indianapolis dominated this regular season match-up winning 27-0 as a 3.5 favorite similar to what we see in this game. WR AJ Green got hurt and lost the game last week against Pittsburgh and I just do not believe that the Bengals have much left in the tank. QB Andy Dalton has a 1-6 touchdown to interception ratio in the playoffs. The Colts win and march onto Denver for another rematch with Peyton Manning. Indianapolis is 20-6 ATS (1 push) in their last 27 home games. 

10 Unit Play. #269 Take UCLA Bruins over Kansas State Wildcats (Alamo Bowl, Friday January 2nd 6:45 pm ESPN) Bowl Game of the Year. The talent edge in this game greatly favors the Bruins in this game. Kansas State is a very well coached team and they do not beat themselves but that does not get it done when playing top tier teams. UCLA dominated in their bowl game last year and that is how I see this game going as well. This will be the last game for QB Brett Hundley and I expect him to go out with a bang. The Wildcats finished 9-3 on the season but all three of those losses came against teams that had better talent than they did. They lost by double digits to Baylor and TCU and we have now found out that beating Oklahoma is not that impressive. Kansas State gave up 553 yards to TCU and 584 yards to Baylor and most of their impressive defensive numbers came against lesser teams. Despite laying an egg in their last game against Stanford, UCLA had won five straight games and righted the ship in a big way after back to back losses at home. I just do not believe Kansas State has the playmakers to threaten this UCLA defense and feel the Bruins will pull away in the second half and win this game comfortably. Kansas State is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 bowl games. UCLA is 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games following a double digit loss at home. 

I think that the New York Giants have all the motivation here. The players seem to love Tom Coughlin, and they may be fighting for his job here. We think they go all out to win this one and win it big against a team that has been overhyped all season and is playing some of its worst football here down the stretch. The Giants have won three straight and covered in all those games. The Eagles have lost their last three without a single cover. With the extra motivation for playing for their coach and the absolute lack of motivation we have seen from the Eagles here down the stretch we think this line should be over the key NFL number of three and that the Giants are the clear play here.

10 Unit Play. #106 Take Washington Redskins over Philadelphia Eagles (Saturday 4:30 pm NFL Network) The Redskins actually showed some heart last week against the Giants and a tough break right before halftime did them in and ejected some key players. Expect RG3 to be under center for this game and he moved the football well last week and should be able to put up some points and yardage in this game as well. Philadelphia is in a major letdown situation coming off their debacle last week at home against Dallas. Turnovers did them in and expect them to put the ball on the ground a few times in this game as well. Philadelphia is 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games against teams with a losing record at home. 

10 Unit Play. #202 Take Louisiana Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns over Nevada Wolf Pack (New Orleans Bowl, Saturday 11 am ESPN) This is a major home field edge for the Ragin’ Cajuns as they are playing in New Orleans for a fourth straight year and look to complete the Superfecta on Saturday with four straight wins. Nevada players are happy to be in New Orleans, but the fan base will not be able to support them as the team had just 13 days and fans have bought just over 100 tickets. Nevada has been a slow starting team all season long and have not played well down the stretch losing two of their last three games against so-so teams in Air Force, UNLV, and Fresno State. Nevada could have lost to UNLV as well were it not for the Vegas quarterback falling apart in the second half despite having a lead at halftime. Nevada has not seen a quarterback as good as Terrance Broadway since October 11th and he should be able to pick apart this suspect Wolf Pack defense. Louisiana has only lost 1 game since September 21st and they will enter this game with a lot of confidence. This is a dual threat team and I expect them to move the ball up and down the field for 60 minutes. Nevada is a penny pinching team and thus their bowl experience will not be enjoyable as most team get to experience. The Pack have lost two straight bowl games and just do not have the weapons at wide receiver to exploit ULL. Nevada is 1-4 ATS (1 push) in their last 6 bowl games. ULL is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games played during December. 

10 Unit Play. #331 Take Dallas Cowboys over Philadelphia Eagles (Sunday 8:30 pm NBC) This is a must win game for the Cowboys if they have any visions of winning the NFC East and I believe they will put forth a good effort coming off a mini bye since they played last Thursday. Dallas has played much better on the road this season going 6-0 and the visitor has been the play in this series covering the spread in 6 of their last 7 meetings. I am still not a big believer in Mark Sanchez and the Seahawks provided a blueprint last Sunday as to how to shut him down. Philadelphia is 5-14 ATS (1 push) in their last 20 games against teams with a winning record. 

10 Unit Play. #171 Take Kansas City Chiefs over Arizona Cardinals (Sunday 4:05 pm CBS) The Cardinals are in complete freefall at the moment with no landing spot in sight. QB Drew Stanton has played terrible the last two weeks and now they are in jeopardy of evening winning the NFC West. Kansas City is coming off back to back losses against AFC West teams (Denver & Oakland) and now face a must win game against Arizona. Kansas City has covered 11 of their last 14 regular season road games and I feel that they win this game convincingly. Arizona keeps losing players to injury and that has taken its toll on this team. Alex Smith has a 7-1 touchdown to interception ratio in 2014 road games. Kansas City is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. 

10 Unit Play. #125 Take Florida State Seminoles over Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (ACC Championship, Saturday, 8 pm ABC) I am done proclaiming that Florida State is due for a breakout game because they have not done that at any point down the stretch. That being said they are much more talented than Georgia Tech especially without DeAndre Smelter as he is doubtful for this game with a knee injury. That is a major void for Georgia Tech and I do not feel that they will be able to overcome this loss at wide receiver. Florida State is 13-2 straight-up against Georgia Tech. People seem to believe that playing a triple option team is impossible to prepare for but I do not believe that is true. Florida State has speed and that is how you prevent big plays. The Noles will be able to move the football through the air at will and win this game by double digits. Florida State is 12-4 ATS (1 push) in their last 17 neutral site games. Georgia Tech is just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games played during the month of December. 

10 Unit Play. #472 Take Green Bay Packers over New England Patriots (Sunday 4:25 pm CBS) Many believe that this will be a Super Bowl preview as the Patriots and Packers are playing outstanding football of late. That being said we will side with the Packers as the Patriots are in a prime spot for a letdown. New England dominated a suspect Detroit team last week at home. The Lions were not able to move the football much on offense but Green Bay is a much more explosive team on offense than is Detroit. New England has not face a team like this since Denver, as Green Bay has the ability to beat you through the air or on the ground with Eddie Lacy. The Packers defense is getting better especially since they moved Clay Mathews to inside linebacker and they will be able to get pressure on Tom Brady. New England is just 5-11 ATS in their last 16 road games. Green Bay is 5-0 ATS (1 push) in their last 6 home games. Lay the small change with Green Bay in this one. 

10 Unit Play. #406 Take UNLV Runnin Rebels over Nevada Wolf Pack (Saturday 10:30 pm ESPN U) We have a great feel for this Nevada team and have not lost any selections for or against them this season. The Wolf Pack had an appearance in the MWC Championship Game in their grasp but feel apart last week against Fresno State (We had the Bulldogs +8). Now they face an angry UNLV team that pissed away a game last week in Hawaii and this is the game that have had circled for over a month. Nevada is not a good passing team and is not good on defense defending the pass. These two things will all UNLV to keep this game close and take it down to the wire. Nevada may get the cannon back but it will come in a battle that is close throughout. Nevada is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games against teams with a losing record at home. 

10 Unit Play. #256 Take New England Patriots over Detroit Lions (Sunday 1 pm FOX) The Patriots are the best team in the AFC at the moment having won six straight games including blowouts the last three weeks. Two of those blowouts came against Denver and Indianapolis, teams that are better than Detroit. The Lions have been winning close a lot of late but that came to an end last week in Arizona when their offense did not do much of anything. That came against a back-up quarterback in Drew Stanton and now they must face one of the all-time greats in Tom Brady. The Patriots are getting it down on both sides of the football and Detroit has given up 31 sacks this season. New England is 8-0 straight up and 6-2 ATS when playing at home coming off a Sunday Night game. Week 12 has not been kind to Detroit going 1-9 ATS in their last 10 Week 12 games. New England has covered the spread in 10 of their last 13 home games. 

10 Unit Play. #180 Take Notre Dame Fighting Irish over Louisville Cardinals (Saturday 3:30 pm NBC) Notre Dame is coming off a humiliating loss to Northwestern and many believe that their season is crumbling at the moment. I am not one of those people and feel they will bounce back in a big way today against Louisville. Both teams have issues at quarterback as the Cardinals will be playing their back-up quarterback in this game in Reggie Bonnafon. Despite their performance the last couple of weeks I still believe in this Notre Dame defense and feel they will be able to contain the running game of Louisville. Everett Golson is an effective quarterback when he does not turn over the football and he will be able to move the football on this aggressive Louisville defense. Notre Dame is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. Louisville is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games played during the month of November. 

10 Unit Play. #458 Take Kansas City Chiefs over Seattle Seahawks (Sunday 1 pm FOX) Kansas City is playing outstanding football of late, having won 4 straight games, and they are getting it done on both sides of the football. Seattle is finding life as a defending champion much more difficult, and they are getting team’s best effort this season. Seattle has only covered one time this season on the road, and that came against Washington, who still moved the football on them. It will be important for Kansas City to stop the read option, especially when the quarterback keeps it. Seattle is not great at throwing the football, especially when teams know they have to throw it. Kansas City has covered the spread all 4 games during this winning streak. Seattle has covered the spread just 1 time in their last 5 games. 

10 Unit Play. #371 Take Florida State Seminoles over Miami Hurricanes (Saturday 8 pm ABC) Everyone keeps saying Florida State will run the table but yet the pointspreads in their games say otherwise. Miami was ranked No. 7 in the country when these two teams met last season and got pounded by 27 points in a game that was not close. Florida State has won their last 4 games in Miami and I just do not believe this young Miami quarterback can exploit this FSU defense. Since Miami moved out of the Orange Bowl to play at Sun Life Stadium, there home crowd edge has been nonexistent. Florida State still has the best player on the field in Jameis Winston and he has not lost a game when he is the starting quarterback. Miami is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. Expect FSU to have a strong following in South Florida, as the Noles punch their ticket to the ACC Championship Game. 

10 Unit Play. #123 Take Iowa Hawkeyes over Minnesota Golden Gophers (Saturday 12 pm ESPN 2) Big 10 Game of the Year. Minnesota is doing the same thing again! They beat up on a weak schedule to start the 2013 season and history is again repeating itself. Minnesota is coming off an embarrassing loss to Illinois two weeks ago and that is not when you want to have a bye week which occurred last week. Iowa on the other hand is also 3-1 in the Big 10 and they are coming off their best performance of the season dominating Northwestern from start to finish. Minnesota was playing much better than Iowa when these two teams met in the Twin Cities last year (Minn was 6-1) and Iowa dominated that game from start to finish winning 23-7. Iowa has outscored Minnesota 41-0 in the first half in their last two meetings. Iowa has also been outstanding on the road covering the pointspread in 8 of their last 9 road games. This is just a case of two teams heading in opposite directions. Minnesota will be lucky to win one of their last four games (they will be an underdog in all four games). Iowa always losses a game they should not lose early in the season but by the end of November this team has things figured out and you can expect another monster effort today in Minneapolis, a short drive for many Hawkeye fans. Iowa has covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 games. 

10 Unit Play. #466 Take San Francisco 49ers over St. Louis Rams (Sunday 4:05 pm FOX) The Rams are hanging by a thread at the moment and their injuries are starting to catch up to them. These two teams met on 10/13 and the Rams jumped out to a 14 point lead and they still lost by 14 points. The 49ers have won three straight games against the Rams in the Bay Area (3-0 ATS as well). The 49ers are starting to get healthy on defense and this is a game they must win in order to make the playoffs this year in a tough division. The Rams are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games. The 49ers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games against teams with a losing record. 

10 Unit Play. #409 Take Utah State Aggies over Hawaii Warriors (Saturday 11 pm the MWC) Yes I know Utah State has lost three quarterbacks to injury this season and they are likely down to people in the parking lot, but they still have enough to beat Hawaii. Nevada did not play very well last week especially in the first half and still pounded Hawaii (a late TD by the Warriors made the score closer). Utah State has by far and away the best defense in the Mountain West and I was encouraged by the Kent Myers who came in and moved the football once Craig Harrison went down. Hawaii is in total shambles with zero home crowd edge (the stands last week were almost empty) and a coach that is just past his prime. Hawaii hung with a couple of PAC-12 teams early in the season but that seems like a decade ago and this team is just not the same without Joey Iosefa. The Aggies have one of the best defense in the country, especially against the run and will win this game by double digits. It does not matter who starts at quarterback for the Aggies, the talent at the other spots is too much for the Warriors to stay close. Lay the small change in this game. 

10 Unit Play. #276 Take New Orleans Saints over Green Bay Packers (Sunday 8:30 pm NBC) Still not ready to right off the Saints this season especially playing a night game at the Superdome. New Orleans is 2-4 this season but 2-0 at home and as we all know this is a completely different team when playing at home. Green Bay is on a roll right now winning four straight games but all of them came against teams that will likely not be making the playoffs this season (Carolina still could win the AFC South). This is a must win game for New Orleans in order to save their season and I believe that they will come out hunger and ready to make a statement. New Orleans had Detroit beat last week (a team that beat Green Bay) before collapsing in the final 5 minutes of the fourth quarter. Tonight they take out their frustration on the Packers. New Orleans has won 10 straight home games (8-2 ATS) winning these games by an average of 16.4 points per game. 

10 Unit Play. #114 Take Boise State Broncos over BYU Cougars (Friday 9 pm ESPN) Boise State did not look that impressive last week against Fresno State but they still won the game! That is more than BYU can say as they lost to Nevada as a double digit favorite at home. The fact remains that BYU is continuing to get too much respect from the odds makers. This is a completely different team without Taysom Hill and his back-up is just not up to par with numerous turnovers. BYU does not have the same rushing attack and thus have to rely more on the passing game. This is the best team BYU will have faced in 2014 and they are also playing a team with revenge from last season. The Broncos have won two straight games after their Air Force debacle including beating Nevada on the road and QB Grant Hedrick is playing much better of late with just one interception in his last two games. Boise State got run over last year in Provo and you can bet that does not sit well with the 2014 team. BYU is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Boise State is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games against teams with a winning road record. We will keep fading the Cougars with these short numbers. 

10 Unit Play. #469 Take Kansas City Chiefs over San Diego Chargers (Sunday 4:05 pm CBS) NFL Game of the Year. The Chargers just keep winning and are now one of the best teams in the league. That being said, this team is really banged up, and because of this all of the pressure falls on QB Phillip Rivers and his wide receivers. San Diego has no success running the football against Oakland until their final drive of the game, and I do not see things getting better this week against Kansas City. The Chiefs are coming off a bye, and Andy Reid has been outstanding in this spot, winning 13 of his 15 games following a bye. Much like the Oakland game this week, divisional games tend to come down to the wire, and I just do not see San Diego blowing out KC. QB Rivers will have his moments in this game and put up some passing yards, but I expect the Chiefs to match them score for score. Kansas City if 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games. San Diego is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games played during October. Take the points in this one. 

10 Unit Play. #270 Take Oakland Raiders over San Diego Chargers (Sunday 4:05 pm CBS) If the Raiders are ever going to put forth an effort during the 2014 season it will come this week. Oakland made a coaching change during their bye week and I expect them to play better under new coach Tony Sparano. San Diego has not played well against Oakland in recent years going 3-7 ATS in their last 10 meetings. The Chargers will also be looking ahead as they have Kansas City and Denver on deck. Oakland is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games played during October. 

10 Unit Play. #165 Take Oregon Ducks over UCLA Bruins (Saturday 3:30 pm FOX) This game has lost a little of its luster with both teams suffering setbacks last week and thus the loser of this game has no chance to make it into the 4 team playoff. That being said I expect Oregon to bounce back in a big way and get back into the win column. Oregon has shown signs of being dominant this season evident by their big win over Michigan State but the same cannot be said about UCLA. The Bruins has struggle in all of their games at some point including Arizona State. This UCLA team just does not have it this year and I have never thought Jim Mora Jr was a big time coach. QB Marcus Mariota is still a big time player and has the ability to beat you with his arm or his legs. Oregon has won 10 of the last 12 meetings with UCLA. Oregon is 13-4 ATS in their last 17 road games. UCLA is 5-17 ATS in their last 22 games played in October.  

10 Unit Play. #476 Take New England Patriots over Cincinnati Bengals (Sunday 8:30 pm NBC) New England could not have played any worse last week in Kansas City and because of that they enter this game as an underdog at home for just the second time in close to a decade. Cincinnati could very well be the best team in the AFC but they have never handled prosperity all that well in recent years. Much like Tampa Bay winning for us last week, all of these players are professionals and pride is on the line when they are coming off an embarrassing game. The Patriots need this game and they get it at Foxborough. 

10 Unit Play. #368 Take Notre Dame Fighting Irish over Stanford Cardinal (Saturday 3:30 pm NBC) Actually surprised that Stanford opened as a favorite in this game. Notre Dame is undefeated and played a decent schedule thus far and they have not had a competitive game thus far in 2014. Stanford already lost at home to a so-so USC team and they are vastly overrated this year and in this game. I also believe that Notre Dame has a major edge in coaching with Brian Kelly compared to David Shaw, as the latter tightens up in close games with a very conservative gameplan. Notre Dame has covered the spread in 7 of their last 10 non conference games. The defense of the Irish has made great strides under new DC Brian VanGorder and expect that to continue this week. 

10 Unit Play. #265 Take Jacksonville Jaguars over San Diego Chargers (Sunday 4:05 pm CBS) The Chargers are off to an impressive 2-1 start this season (could easily be 3-0) but they have never seemed to handle prosperity well during this century. Jacksonville is the type of team that is heard to get up for and thus I expect the Chargers to just go through the motions and not play inspired football. San Diego is banged up a running back with Mathews and Woodhead out for this game. Jacksonville will start Blake Bortles and I expect him to bring a little life to this stagnate offense. 

10 Unit Play. #205 Take Nevada Wolf Pack over San Jose State Spartans (Saturday 10:30 pm CBS Sports Network) College Football Game of the Year. Nevada is just a better team in 2014. They have a much better quarterback and they have vastly improved their defense this season. They are also playing a team that they have had great success against dating back to the WAC. Nevada has won five straight games in this series and 10 of the last 11 match-ups (8-3 ATS). Nevada was left for dead late last season and was a 7-point underdog against San Jose State and still beat them by 22 points! To make matters worse for San Jose State, they have had a quarterback change as Joe Gray will likely get the start today over Blake Jurich. The Spartans are just lost on offense without their quarterback and top wide receiver from last year. Nevada could easily be 3-0 on the season despite playing two PAC-12 teams. They dominated Washington State much better than Oregon did last week and if not for some questionable calls in Tucson they hung with Arizona as well. Nevada is also coming off a bye and that has allowed a couple of offensive linemen to get healthy and should allow their dominating running attack to find holes early and often in this game. QB Cody Fajardo has torn apart this team and tonight will be no different. 

10 Unit Play. #460 Take New Orleans Saints over Minnesota Vikings (Sunday 1 pm FOX) New Orleans will be a strong public play this week but that will not deter us from using them as they are desperate for a win. The Saints are 0-2 but they have yet to play in the Superdome this season and we all know they are a completely different at home. New Orleans is 17-0 straight-up and 16-1 ATS in their last 17 games that Sean Payton has coached. Minnesota showed their true colors last week against New England and playing on the road will be too much to overcome and keep this a one possession game. 

10 Unit Play. #363 Take Oregon Ducks over Washington State Cougars (Saturday 10:30 pm ESPN) The Ducks got things going against Wyoming after a slow start in the first quarter and I just do not see Washington State being able to stop Oregon whatsoever. Wazzou will throw every down and move the football a little big but sooner or later Oregon will go on a scoring run and never look back. Oregon has scored an average of 50 points in their last 4 games against Washington State. Oregon is usually a mid-30 point favorite against Wazzou and thus I do not see them getting backdoored in this game. 

10 Unit Play. #189 Take UCLA Bruins over Texas Longhorns (Saturday 8 pm FOX) Texas will put forth a better effort this week against UCLA but the fact remains that they just do not have much talent. New Coach Charlie Strong has laid down the law with suspensions and they have also been bitten by the injury bug as well. That came to a head last week when BYU destroyed them by a score of 41-7. The fact remains that UCLA is a better team than BYU and they also have a duel threat quarterback that can beat you with his arm or his legs. UCLA has not been that impressive this season in their two victories but I feel that have just been going through the motions waiting for ta big time game with a national audience. They have that here and expect a focus and determined effort. Texas is 3-7 ATS (1 push) in their last 10 games against ranked teams on a neutral field. Texas was embarrassed by BYU in 2013 and even with revenge on their minds they still got run over last week. That just tells me they do not have the horses. Texas is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. UCLA is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 nonconference games. 

10 Unit Play. #488 Take Denver Broncos over Indianapolis Colts (Sunday 8:30 pm NBC) The Broncos are a juggernaut, especially on offense and early in the season. Denver pounded Baltimore in Week 1 of the 2013 season, and I expect a similar result tonight against Manning’s former team. Remember, Indianapolis handed Denver their first loss of the season in 2013, and you can bet Denver has not forgotten it. Indianapolis is really banged up on the offensive line and getting very little from the running back position. QB Luck is outstanding, but I just do not see him being competitive in this game. Denver needed to get better on defense, and that is what happened. Indianapolis is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 Week 1 games. 

10 Unit Play. #360 Take New Mexico Lobos over Arizona State Sun Devils (Saturday 7 pm CBS Sports Network) No top 25 team lost as many starters as Arizona State did from 2013. Therefore I do not believe they will be able to run over teams especially on the road. New Mexico is not very good, but like Georgia Southern last week, they have a run based offense that an shorten the game especially if they can stay close early. Arizona State has dropped six straight road openers and this is just too many points for them to cover on the road. New Mexico always has a strong fan base and this should be a good crowd for both teams. Arizona State is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall. QB Taylor Kelly is good but I just do not believe he can cover this spread by himself. 

10 Unit Play. #188/#160 Take Purdue Boilermakers over Western Michigan Broncos (Saturday 12 pm ESPN U) I am expecting big things from Purdue this year as Coach Darrell Hazell is in his second year of this major rebuilding project. Purdue has a ton of experience on both sides of the football and this is an important game since it will be one of the few games they are favored to win. Actually Purdue should win three of their four nonconference games but this is a must win if they are going to show any kind of improvement in 2014. Purdue is a perfect 3-0 in this series and Western Michigan was terrible last year matching Purdue’s 1-11 record. The Broncos have lost 19 straight road openers and I feel that Purdue will want to make a statement in this game to rally the fan base for 2014. Western Michigan is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games against Big Ten teams.