Sports Picks & Predictions

10 Unit Play. #384 Take Tennessee Volunteers over Florida Gators (Saturday 3:30 pm CBS) I just cannot get out of my head how well Tennessee played to close out the 2015 season. Sooner or later they will get back to that level since they return most of their 2015 talent. It has not really happened this season but this is the game they will breakout and performance at a high level. They have no excuses not to be up for this game since Florida has beaten them 11 straight years. But the Gators will be without their starting quarterback and that does not bode well playing in a hostile environment. All three of Tennessee’s victories this season have come over the posted number for today’s game. Tennessee is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS loss in their previous game. Florida is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games.  

10 Unit Play. #167 Take Oregon Ducks over Nebraska Cornhuskers (Saturday 12:30 pm ABC) Nonconference Game of the Year. Do not be misled by the final score of the Wyoming – Nebraska game last week. It was 24-17 before Wyoming had four consecutive turnovers giving Nebraska 28 fourth quarter points and the cover. Oregon will not be as giving and will make Nebraska go the length of the field in order to score points. That is something QB Tommy Armstrong struggles to do, as he did not look that impressive last week and has trouble hitting is receivers in stride. Throw in the fact that Mike Riley is just 4-10 against Oregon and we will gladly take the points with the better and more talented team. The Ducks will never reach the heights they did under Marcus Mariota but they still have an explosive system that can put on points in the blink of the eye. Despite being a decent Michigan State team last year with the help of a controversial call, Nebraska has underperformed in big games through most of the last decade and whenever fans start to believe in this team they just lay an egg. Oregon is 22-5 ATS in their last 27 road games. The points are just icing on the cake as Oregon will win this game straight-up. 

10 Unit Play. #364 Take Mississippi State Bulldogs over South Carolina Gamecocks (Saturday 7 pm ESPN 2) SEC Game of the Year. We went against the Bulldogs last week and won outright despite getting 28.5 points! Now the odds makers feel that the public will overreact to that game and put a pile of money on South Carolina since they won on the road last week in Nashville. That just sets up great for us and we will gladly lay less than a touchdown with a much better team that is used to the Dan Mullen system. Mississippi State should have knocked out South Alabama last week as they jumped out to a 17-0 lead before falling apart in the second half. South Carolina does not have a high powered offense and Will Muschamp was fired at Florida for his lack of innovation. South Carolina will not be able to cover this spread unless the score in the twenties and I expect them to struggle doing that. Both teams play multiple quarterbacks but Dan Mullen is the better offense coach and thus the Bulldogs will bounce back in a big way on Saturday. South Carolina is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games against teams with a losing record. Mississippi State is 14-6 ATS in their last 20 SEC games. Beating Vanderbilt is one thing, but Mississippi State is clearly a step-up from that bottom feeder program and will be USC by double digits allowing us to collect big in the process.  

10 Unit Play. #156 Take Michigan Wolverines over Hawaii Warriors (Saturday 12 pm ESPN) This is a ton of points to be laying but I just do not see anyway Hawaii keeps it close. Hawaii is faced with a brutal travel situation having played in Australia last Friday late night and now must come to Michigan this week. Hawaii faced two Big 10 teams last year in Wisconsin and Iowa and they failed to score a single point in either of those two games. I do not believe this Hawaii team is better than the 2015 version despite an upgrade in coaching. This is a complete rebuild for new coach and I believe they will lose this game by 50 points. Michigan is expecting big things this year and they could not ask for an easier start to the season with six of their first seven games at home. Michigan is 23-3 in home openers and if a bad Hawaii team can get pounded by Cal last week (backdoor covered that game) I just do not see that happening today. Jim Harbaugh is not the type of coach to take the foot of the peddle and allow Hawaii to backdoor cover this game. Michigan gets close to 60 points and wins this game and covers the spread. 

10 Unit Play. #231 Take Indiana Hoosiers over Duke Blue Devils (Pinstripe Bowl, Saturday, 12/26 3:30 pm ABC) Nothing better than watching a football game in a baseball stadium but that will be the case today when the Hoosiers invade the Big Apple. Indiana has a very shaky defense but a good offense that can put up points. But this play is more about going against Duke, as they have yet to recover from their loss to Miami that featured some bad calls by the officials. The Blue Devils would go on to lose their next three games and only beat Wake Forest by six points in their season finale. Duke gave up over 350 yards per game passing in their last four games and expect the Hoosiers to move up and down the football field. Duke has lost three straight bowl games and actually has not won a bowl game since 1961. Indiana finished the season strong with two blowout wins and was very competitive with Ohio State, Iowa, and Michigan. Indiana played a very difficult schedule and thus their 6-6 record does not look that bad. Duke is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Indiana is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 nonconference games. 

10 Unit Play. #328 Take San Diego State Aztecs over Air Force Falcons (MWC Championship Game, Saturday, 7:30 pm ESPN 2) Nobody expected the Aztecs to run the table in the MWC going a perfect 8-0 and they have yet to have a competitive game. Air Force still is a triple option and I expect the Aztec defense to be ready for it, as they have the best defense in the conference. The host team has won both MWC Championship games and tonight should be no different. SDSU has the best player in the league in Donnel Pumphrey and Air Force will have no answer for him, as the Falcons gave up 377 rushing yards last week against New Mexico. San Diego State is 4-1 against Air Force and a perfect 5-0 ATS. SDSU is 6-2 in their last 8 home games against Mountain West teams. Air Force is 5-11 ATS in their last 16 road Mountain West games. San Diego State has won 8 straight games by double digits and 10 straight home games against MWC teams (25 point margin of victory). This is a high powered train and we will ride them to another victory. 

10 Unit Play. #195 Take Northwestern Wildcats over Illinois Fighting Illini (3:30 pm ESPN U) The Wildcats have rebounded nicely after a two-game losing streak to win their last four games. They are coming off a nice victory at Wisconsin and have a big advantage since this neutral game in being played in Chicago. The Illini need this game to become bowl eligible, but they will not get it since Northwestern is the better-rounded team. Illinois has lost five of their last six games, with their only win during this time coming against hapless Purdue. Northwestern is 18-7 ATS in their last 25 games following an ATS victory in their previous game. 

10 Unit Play. #407 Take Notre Dame Fighting Irish over Boston College Eagles (Saturday 7:30 pm NBC) The Eagles have a solid defense and a terrible offense. This team has trouble moving the football at all through the ground or the air and they are one of the worst offenses in the entire country. They have major quarterback issues and this is causing their defense to wear down as the season goes on. We went against Boston College in their last two home games as top plays and easily collected on both of them despite so-so teams in Virginia Tech and NC State. Notre Dame has a clear path into the playoffs if they just win out, but expect them to go for some style points in this night game on national TV. Both teams will be pumped about playing at Fenway Park, but I just do not see Boston College being able to score enough points to stay within this posted number. Boston College is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games. Notre Dame is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games. Notre Dame gradually increases their lead to wins this by close to 28 points. 

10 Unit Play. #421 Take Michigan State Spartans over Nebraska Cornhuskers (Saturday 7 pm ESPN) If it has not become clear by now that the Mike Riley hire is a failure and the AD who made that hire is in serious trouble. Nebraska is 3-6 on the season and they have lost four of their last five games. This team has lost in a variety of ways but how you can give up 55 points to Purdue and lose by double digits is beyond me. Now they face the toughest team on their schedule and we will gladly lay this number with a team is starting to hit their stride. The Spartans are coming off of a bye and they have won two straight games against Nebraska. Last year’s final was 27-22 but it was not as close as it would seem with Nebraska trailing 27-3 in that game. The Spartans have not been as dominating as they were last year but they are still undefeated and played their best game of the season last time out putting up 52 points against Indiana. Michigan State still has a great quarterback in Connor Cook and he has 17 touchdowns on the season and just two interceptions. Nebraska QB Tommy Armstrong will likely return but much of his production has come in the second half or against bad teams. Michigan State is 18-7 ATS (1 push) in their last 26 road games. Nebraska is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games against teams with a winning road record. These two teams are heading in opposite directions and Nebraska cannot get out of its own way. 

10 Unit Play. #357 Take NC State Wolfpack over Boston College Eagles (Saturday, November 7th, 2015, 12:30 pm ESPN 3) We went against Boston College for our 6-unit selection last week against Virginia Tech and will come right back fading them this week. Boston College has a good defense but they have one of the worst offenses in the entire country. They have major quarterback issues and they have lost five straight games including just 300 yards of total offense combined in their last two games. NC State took a body blow from the best team in the ACC last week. They hung with Clemson for a little bit but just could not get off the field enough to win the game. They should have a much easier time stopping Boston College on Saturday, an Eagles team that cannot get out of their own way. North Carolina State is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games. Lay the points with the better team. 

10 Unit Play. #193 Take Virginia Tech Hokies over Boston College Eagles (Saturday 12:30 pm ESPN 3) Both teams are coming off heartbreaking losses last week but Virginia Tech has a much better offense than does Boston College. QB Michael Brewer is back from injury and this will be his second start since returning and he should be even better in this game. Boston College has a strong defense but a terrible offense evident by the fact they had only 79 total yards last week and 4 first downs against Louisville. Their 14 points were the result of two short fields with a blocked punt and a fumble return. Boston College has major quarterback issues and they are completing just 43% of their passes and that includes games against Maine and Howard. Boston College is 1-3 ATS (1 push) in their 5 home games. If Virginia Tech can ovoid turnovers they should roll to a victory. 

10 Unit Play. #345 Take Utah Utes over USC Trojans (Saturday 7:30 pm FOX) Utah will put their undefeated record on the line tonight in Los Angeles taking on USC. The Trojans have an interim coach and they have already lost two games at the Coliseum this season. USC had some moments last week against Notre Dame but still suffered a double digit loss and I do not see them being able to turn things around tonight. USC has lost three of their last four games I believe Utah is a better team that Washington and Notre Dame. Utah has a very aggressive style of defense that will pose problems for Cody Kessler. Utah is very balanced on offense and getting points with the better team is just icing on the cake. Utah is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games. USC is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 home games against teams with a winning road record. 

10 Unit Play. #407 Take San Jose State Spartans over UNLV Rebels (Saturday 9 pm the MWC) The Rebels were lucky to escape last week against Nevada as they did nothing in the second half but got a key pick-six to hang on for the victory. I do not see them being as fortunate in this game against San Jose State. I am a real big fan of Spartan QB Joy Gray and he has held his own against some stiff competition including Auburn last week. San Jose State actually outgained Auburn last week and should be the same this week since Rebel starting quarterback Blake Decker is out again this time with a shoulder injury. It is important for San Jose State to stop the running game of UNLV and if they do that they should be victorious. The Spartans have a pair of big name coordinators in Greg Robinson and Al Borges and expect them to come up with a solid gameplan to defeat a coach that was at a high school one year ago. SJSU is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games against teams with a losing record. UNLV has covered just 1 of their last 4 home games. 

10 Unit Play. #148 Take Oklahoma State Cowboys over Kansas State Wildcats (Saturday 4 pm FS1) We will come right back with the Cowboys in this game and feel they will be more relaxed than they were last week playing in Austin. We pushed with the Pokes in a game we should have won as the Longhorns offense was completely shut down in the second half. But key turnovers kept Texas in that game and we had to settle for a push. After a bad beat (push) I always like to use the same team against in the following week as things have a way of evening themselves out. The Wildcats have reverted back to Bill Snyder form in scheduling cupcakes during the nonconference portion of the season and they have not really looked that impressive in those games. They are coming off a bye but I do not believe they are ready for Big 12 play. They already share a common opponent in UTSA with the Pokes beating them by 55 points compared to a 27 point victory by the Wildcats. Oklahoma State also has revenge on their minds losing by 34 points last year in Manhattan but the home team has won 8 of the last 9 meetings. I am a big fan of DC Glenn Spencer and feel he will come up with a solid gameplan to stifle this questionable Wildcats offense. Oklahoma State takes better care of the football on Saturday and wins this game by double digits. 

10 Unit Play. #384 Take UTSA Roadrunners over Colorado State Rams (Saturday 7 pm CBSSN) The MWC has been one of the most disappointing conferences this season and the Rams must travel on the road for the first time this season. Colorado State should not be laying this many points to anybody on the road. CSU is coming off an overtime loss to Colorado and I expect them to come into this game a little flat. The Roadrunners have played a brutal schedule to open the season and they sit at 0-3 but those losses came against Oklahoma State, Kansas State, and Arizona. This is a fade play against the MWC. 

10 Unit Play. #372 Take Nevada Wolf Pack over Arizona Wildcats (Saturday 7 pm CBSSN) Nonconference Game of the Year! We saw last week that many power five teams struggled to put away and cover the spread against mid-majors in true road games. Tonight we have a line that is way off the mark, as Arizona is not the team they were last year. These two teams have met twice in the last three years and both times Arizona was a big favorite but Nevada covered the game with relative ease. That included losing by just seven points last year in Tucson despite being a 19 point underdog. Arizona looked awful against UTSA last week and this is a Road Runner team that returned just 6 of 22 starters from a 4 win team last year. Arizona got two defensive touchdowns but gave up 29 first downs and 525 total yards to UTSA. Nevada always prides themselves on holding onto the football and winning the turnover battle and if they accomplish this they will take this game right down to the wire. Nevada’s game against UC-Davis was a little misleading, as they gave up two late meaningless scores to make the game closer than what it actually way. Nevada has a solid defense and despite breaking in a new quarterback should be able to move the football on this suspect Wildcat defense. Throw in the fact that Arizona will be without PAC-12 Defensive Player of the Year in Scooby Wright and that just means this line is way off the mark. Take the points and I truly believe Nevada has a great chance to win this game straight-up. 

10 Unit Play. #196 Take West Virginia Mountaineers over Georgia Southern Eagles (Saturday 4:30 pm ROOT Sports) The Mountaineers had an up and down season last year with some impressive wins but really feel apart down the stretch of the season losing 4 of their last 5 games. Now Dana Holgorsen is on the hot seat and he needs to get off to a good start and has three winnable games to open up the season. They returns most of their starters on defense but have to replace Clint Trickett at quarterback. To me this is a good thing as I never though much of the former transfer from Florida State. The open with Georgia Southern, a triple option team that ran the table in the Sun Belt last season. To me I always like playing against triple option teams coming off a long layoff as West Virginia has been able to focus all summer on stopping this attack. The Mountaineers are 15-1 in home openers winning by an average of 29 points per game. That will be good enough for a cover in this contest. 

10 Unit Play. #269 Take UCLA Bruins over Kansas State Wildcats (Alamo Bowl, Friday January 2nd 6:45 pm ESPN) Bowl Game of the Year. The talent edge in this game greatly favors the Bruins in this game. Kansas State is a very well coached team and they do not beat themselves but that does not get it done when playing top tier teams. UCLA dominated in their bowl game last year and that is how I see this game going as well. This will be the last game for QB Brett Hundley and I expect him to go out with a bang. The Wildcats finished 9-3 on the season but all three of those losses came against teams that had better talent than they did. They lost by double digits to Baylor and TCU and we have now found out that beating Oklahoma is not that impressive. Kansas State gave up 553 yards to TCU and 584 yards to Baylor and most of their impressive defensive numbers came against lesser teams. Despite laying an egg in their last game against Stanford, UCLA had won five straight games and righted the ship in a big way after back to back losses at home. I just do not believe Kansas State has the playmakers to threaten this UCLA defense and feel the Bruins will pull away in the second half and win this game comfortably. Kansas State is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 bowl games. UCLA is 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games following a double digit loss at home. 

10 Unit Play. #202 Take Louisiana Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns over Nevada Wolf Pack (New Orleans Bowl, Saturday 11 am ESPN) This is a major home field edge for the Ragin’ Cajuns as they are playing in New Orleans for a fourth straight year and look to complete the Superfecta on Saturday with four straight wins. Nevada players are happy to be in New Orleans, but the fan base will not be able to support them as the team had just 13 days and fans have bought just over 100 tickets. Nevada has been a slow starting team all season long and have not played well down the stretch losing two of their last three games against so-so teams in Air Force, UNLV, and Fresno State. Nevada could have lost to UNLV as well were it not for the Vegas quarterback falling apart in the second half despite having a lead at halftime. Nevada has not seen a quarterback as good as Terrance Broadway since October 11th and he should be able to pick apart this suspect Wolf Pack defense. Louisiana has only lost 1 game since September 21st and they will enter this game with a lot of confidence. This is a dual threat team and I expect them to move the ball up and down the field for 60 minutes. Nevada is a penny pinching team and thus their bowl experience will not be enjoyable as most team get to experience. The Pack have lost two straight bowl games and just do not have the weapons at wide receiver to exploit ULL. Nevada is 1-4 ATS (1 push) in their last 6 bowl games. ULL is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games played during December. 

10 Unit Play. #125 Take Florida State Seminoles over Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (ACC Championship, Saturday, 8 pm ABC) I am done proclaiming that Florida State is due for a breakout game because they have not done that at any point down the stretch. That being said they are much more talented than Georgia Tech especially without DeAndre Smelter as he is doubtful for this game with a knee injury. That is a major void for Georgia Tech and I do not feel that they will be able to overcome this loss at wide receiver. Florida State is 13-2 straight-up against Georgia Tech. People seem to believe that playing a triple option team is impossible to prepare for but I do not believe that is true. Florida State has speed and that is how you prevent big plays. The Noles will be able to move the football through the air at will and win this game by double digits. Florida State is 12-4 ATS (1 push) in their last 17 neutral site games. Georgia Tech is just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games played during the month of December. 

10 Unit Play. #406 Take UNLV Runnin Rebels over Nevada Wolf Pack (Saturday 10:30 pm ESPN U) We have a great feel for this Nevada team and have not lost any selections for or against them this season. The Wolf Pack had an appearance in the MWC Championship Game in their grasp but feel apart last week against Fresno State (We had the Bulldogs +8). Now they face an angry UNLV team that pissed away a game last week in Hawaii and this is the game that have had circled for over a month. Nevada is not a good passing team and is not good on defense defending the pass. These two things will all UNLV to keep this game close and take it down to the wire. Nevada may get the cannon back but it will come in a battle that is close throughout. Nevada is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games against teams with a losing record at home. 

10 Unit Play. #180 Take Notre Dame Fighting Irish over Louisville Cardinals (Saturday 3:30 pm NBC) Notre Dame is coming off a humiliating loss to Northwestern and many believe that their season is crumbling at the moment. I am not one of those people and feel they will bounce back in a big way today against Louisville. Both teams have issues at quarterback as the Cardinals will be playing their back-up quarterback in this game in Reggie Bonnafon. Despite their performance the last couple of weeks I still believe in this Notre Dame defense and feel they will be able to contain the running game of Louisville. Everett Golson is an effective quarterback when he does not turn over the football and he will be able to move the football on this aggressive Louisville defense. Notre Dame is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. Louisville is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games played during the month of November. 

10 Unit Play. #371 Take Florida State Seminoles over Miami Hurricanes (Saturday 8 pm ABC) Everyone keeps saying Florida State will run the table but yet the pointspreads in their games say otherwise. Miami was ranked No. 7 in the country when these two teams met last season and got pounded by 27 points in a game that was not close. Florida State has won their last 4 games in Miami and I just do not believe this young Miami quarterback can exploit this FSU defense. Since Miami moved out of the Orange Bowl to play at Sun Life Stadium, there home crowd edge has been nonexistent. Florida State still has the best player on the field in Jameis Winston and he has not lost a game when he is the starting quarterback. Miami is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. Expect FSU to have a strong following in South Florida, as the Noles punch their ticket to the ACC Championship Game. 

10 Unit Play. #123 Take Iowa Hawkeyes over Minnesota Golden Gophers (Saturday 12 pm ESPN 2) Big 10 Game of the Year. Minnesota is doing the same thing again! They beat up on a weak schedule to start the 2013 season and history is again repeating itself. Minnesota is coming off an embarrassing loss to Illinois two weeks ago and that is not when you want to have a bye week which occurred last week. Iowa on the other hand is also 3-1 in the Big 10 and they are coming off their best performance of the season dominating Northwestern from start to finish. Minnesota was playing much better than Iowa when these two teams met in the Twin Cities last year (Minn was 6-1) and Iowa dominated that game from start to finish winning 23-7. Iowa has outscored Minnesota 41-0 in the first half in their last two meetings. Iowa has also been outstanding on the road covering the pointspread in 8 of their last 9 road games. This is just a case of two teams heading in opposite directions. Minnesota will be lucky to win one of their last four games (they will be an underdog in all four games). Iowa always losses a game they should not lose early in the season but by the end of November this team has things figured out and you can expect another monster effort today in Minneapolis, a short drive for many Hawkeye fans. Iowa has covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 games. 

10 Unit Play. #409 Take Utah State Aggies over Hawaii Warriors (Saturday 11 pm the MWC) Yes I know Utah State has lost three quarterbacks to injury this season and they are likely down to people in the parking lot, but they still have enough to beat Hawaii. Nevada did not play very well last week especially in the first half and still pounded Hawaii (a late TD by the Warriors made the score closer). Utah State has by far and away the best defense in the Mountain West and I was encouraged by the Kent Myers who came in and moved the football once Craig Harrison went down. Hawaii is in total shambles with zero home crowd edge (the stands last week were almost empty) and a coach that is just past his prime. Hawaii hung with a couple of PAC-12 teams early in the season but that seems like a decade ago and this team is just not the same without Joey Iosefa. The Aggies have one of the best defense in the country, especially against the run and will win this game by double digits. It does not matter who starts at quarterback for the Aggies, the talent at the other spots is too much for the Warriors to stay close. Lay the small change in this game. 

10 Unit Play. #114 Take Boise State Broncos over BYU Cougars (Friday 9 pm ESPN) Boise State did not look that impressive last week against Fresno State but they still won the game! That is more than BYU can say as they lost to Nevada as a double digit favorite at home. The fact remains that BYU is continuing to get too much respect from the odds makers. This is a completely different team without Taysom Hill and his back-up is just not up to par with numerous turnovers. BYU does not have the same rushing attack and thus have to rely more on the passing game. This is the best team BYU will have faced in 2014 and they are also playing a team with revenge from last season. The Broncos have won two straight games after their Air Force debacle including beating Nevada on the road and QB Grant Hedrick is playing much better of late with just one interception in his last two games. Boise State got run over last year in Provo and you can bet that does not sit well with the 2014 team. BYU is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Boise State is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games against teams with a winning road record. We will keep fading the Cougars with these short numbers. 

10 Unit Play. #165 Take Oregon Ducks over UCLA Bruins (Saturday 3:30 pm FOX) This game has lost a little of its luster with both teams suffering setbacks last week and thus the loser of this game has no chance to make it into the 4 team playoff. That being said I expect Oregon to bounce back in a big way and get back into the win column. Oregon has shown signs of being dominant this season evident by their big win over Michigan State but the same cannot be said about UCLA. The Bruins has struggle in all of their games at some point including Arizona State. This UCLA team just does not have it this year and I have never thought Jim Mora Jr was a big time coach. QB Marcus Mariota is still a big time player and has the ability to beat you with his arm or his legs. Oregon has won 10 of the last 12 meetings with UCLA. Oregon is 13-4 ATS in their last 17 road games. UCLA is 5-17 ATS in their last 22 games played in October.  

10 Unit Play. #368 Take Notre Dame Fighting Irish over Stanford Cardinal (Saturday 3:30 pm NBC) Actually surprised that Stanford opened as a favorite in this game. Notre Dame is undefeated and played a decent schedule thus far and they have not had a competitive game thus far in 2014. Stanford already lost at home to a so-so USC team and they are vastly overrated this year and in this game. I also believe that Notre Dame has a major edge in coaching with Brian Kelly compared to David Shaw, as the latter tightens up in close games with a very conservative gameplan. Notre Dame has covered the spread in 7 of their last 10 non conference games. The defense of the Irish has made great strides under new DC Brian VanGorder and expect that to continue this week. 

10 Unit Play. #205 Take Nevada Wolf Pack over San Jose State Spartans (Saturday 10:30 pm CBS Sports Network) College Football Game of the Year. Nevada is just a better team in 2014. They have a much better quarterback and they have vastly improved their defense this season. They are also playing a team that they have had great success against dating back to the WAC. Nevada has won five straight games in this series and 10 of the last 11 match-ups (8-3 ATS). Nevada was left for dead late last season and was a 7-point underdog against San Jose State and still beat them by 22 points! To make matters worse for San Jose State, they have had a quarterback change as Joe Gray will likely get the start today over Blake Jurich. The Spartans are just lost on offense without their quarterback and top wide receiver from last year. Nevada could easily be 3-0 on the season despite playing two PAC-12 teams. They dominated Washington State much better than Oregon did last week and if not for some questionable calls in Tucson they hung with Arizona as well. Nevada is also coming off a bye and that has allowed a couple of offensive linemen to get healthy and should allow their dominating running attack to find holes early and often in this game. QB Cody Fajardo has torn apart this team and tonight will be no different. 

10 Unit Play. #363 Take Oregon Ducks over Washington State Cougars (Saturday 10:30 pm ESPN) The Ducks got things going against Wyoming after a slow start in the first quarter and I just do not see Washington State being able to stop Oregon whatsoever. Wazzou will throw every down and move the football a little big but sooner or later Oregon will go on a scoring run and never look back. Oregon has scored an average of 50 points in their last 4 games against Washington State. Oregon is usually a mid-30 point favorite against Wazzou and thus I do not see them getting backdoored in this game. 

10 Unit Play. #189 Take UCLA Bruins over Texas Longhorns (Saturday 8 pm FOX) Texas will put forth a better effort this week against UCLA but the fact remains that they just do not have much talent. New Coach Charlie Strong has laid down the law with suspensions and they have also been bitten by the injury bug as well. That came to a head last week when BYU destroyed them by a score of 41-7. The fact remains that UCLA is a better team than BYU and they also have a duel threat quarterback that can beat you with his arm or his legs. UCLA has not been that impressive this season in their two victories but I feel that have just been going through the motions waiting for ta big time game with a national audience. They have that here and expect a focus and determined effort. Texas is 3-7 ATS (1 push) in their last 10 games against ranked teams on a neutral field. Texas was embarrassed by BYU in 2013 and even with revenge on their minds they still got run over last week. That just tells me they do not have the horses. Texas is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. UCLA is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 nonconference games. 

10 Unit Play. #360 Take New Mexico Lobos over Arizona State Sun Devils (Saturday 7 pm CBS Sports Network) No top 25 team lost as many starters as Arizona State did from 2013. Therefore I do not believe they will be able to run over teams especially on the road. New Mexico is not very good, but like Georgia Southern last week, they have a run based offense that an shorten the game especially if they can stay close early. Arizona State has dropped six straight road openers and this is just too many points for them to cover on the road. New Mexico always has a strong fan base and this should be a good crowd for both teams. Arizona State is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall. QB Taylor Kelly is good but I just do not believe he can cover this spread by himself. 

10 Unit Play. #188/#160 Take Purdue Boilermakers over Western Michigan Broncos (Saturday 12 pm ESPN U) I am expecting big things from Purdue this year as Coach Darrell Hazell is in his second year of this major rebuilding project. Purdue has a ton of experience on both sides of the football and this is an important game since it will be one of the few games they are favored to win. Actually Purdue should win three of their four nonconference games but this is a must win if they are going to show any kind of improvement in 2014. Purdue is a perfect 3-0 in this series and Western Michigan was terrible last year matching Purdue’s 1-11 record. The Broncos have lost 19 straight road openers and I feel that Purdue will want to make a statement in this game to rally the fan base for 2014. Western Michigan is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games against Big Ten teams.