Sports Picks & Predictions

Just don’t see the Heat getting blown out by Boston in consecutive games. This total is crazy low at 203.5 at the time of this writing. With such a low total, every point for the underdog is more valuable. We agree this will be a low scoring game and we think the Heat will keep this competitive on the strength of their defense. This Miami team is banged up right now but they play with a lot of heart and are well coached. They will have a plan coming into this game and they aren’t going to just roll over tonight. And we have to remember that it is the Heat who have played in two Finals in recent years while this super team from Boston has been to only one. It’s telling that the bookies have not adjusted the line since the Celtics covered in Game 1 and we think the public is all over Boston here and we will side with the sportsbooks and count on the Miami defense to pull some tricks out of their sleeve and keep this one competitive.

Some say that Dallas will dominate this series and it will be an early end for the Clippers and another disappointing season. But we see this series being long and drawn out, like these teams always tend to do when they meet in the playoffs, The Mavs normally get the early jump on LA, then the Clippers rally late in the series. With word Kawhi Leonard may be able to come back later in the series, this script could play out again. But here for Game 1 we see the Mavs dominating. They are incredibly hot heading into the postseason and they have the upper hand here. The Clippers sputtered down the stretch. We think they will figure some things out later in the series, but Game 1 will be all Dallas.

This is a very important game for the Pacers. They need to win here to stake their claim to a playoff spot and avoid the play in tournament. If they make the playoffs, they will have plenty of time off before their first round matchup. So they have to go all out here. Atlanta plays mid week in their play in game and all their focus is on that matchup. They don’t want to expend too much energy here or risk injury. And Indiana is a team that can really pour on the points, so we don’t think they will have any trouble getting the cover here.

It’s fade city for Utah tonight. We sometimes mention a team being Fat and Happy. That is when a poor team gets a big win that wasn’t expected and they usually rest on their laurels and come out flat in the next couple contests. This is the case for Utah tonight as they are on a back-to-back after winning in Houston last night as a double-digit underdog. Utah has a very thin roster with injured starters and this is a very tough back-to-back, no matter who plays for the Clippers. LA has a very deep roster and they have something to play for as seeing is still a factor for the first round. This win for Utah last night was their first in 14 games, and they have covered only four games during this stretch despite very generous odds from the bookies. These teams played here earlier this month, without Kawhi, and the win and cover were never in question for LA. We think this will be a one-sided game from the opening tip.

Love the Knicks in this spot. The Celtics have nothing but pride to play for, while the Knicks need this game for seeding, With the new NBA playoff format with the play in tourney, there is no momentum for teams already set in the bracket, so we don’t think Boston cares at all about this game or if they lose out for the regular season as long as they are healthy for the playoffs. The Knicks are legit championship contenders this year and we think they bring their A Game here tonight.

This is a quick revenge spot as the Knicks lost to the Bulls by 8 here on Friday. The Bulls don’t have much chance to rise above the play in tourney, while the Knicks can definitely drop into the play in. So they have the motivational edge tonight along with revenge. They have won and covered in four of the last six meetings, and we will give them a mulligan for the poor performance on Friday and expect them to bounce back strong here. They are also fairly healthy tonight, while the Bulls have a long injury list and could be missing key players tonight.

The Jazz stink and are missing some key players here, but this is simply too many points. The Jazz still have some players that can compete, and they have one of the better home court advantages in the NBA. Despite players in and out of the lineup, they have played well enough at home recently to keep games close and haven’t lost by more than 10 in four straight, including games against the Mavs and Timberwolves. Cleveland has covered in only one of their last seven games, so the oddsmakers have them a bit overvalued recently. We think the home team keeps this one within double digits.

10 Unit Play. Take #643 NC State over Marquette (7:09p.m., Friday, March 29 CBS) We collected going against Marquette last week and feel we will be able to cash another ticket on Friday night. This is a lot of points to be laying, and the ACC has already proven they should have had more teams make the field of 68. NC State has some size that they can use to their advantage, and I feel they will get this game close late in the second half and take it down to the wire. Take the points in the first Sweet 16 game on Friday.

10 Unit Play. Take #634 Connecticut over San Diego State (7:39p.m., Thursday, March 28 TBS) This is a rematch of the 2023 National Championship, and I feel it will be another side sided affair. San Diego State did not have a great year especially during Mountain West play and they will be running into a buzzsaw having to play UCONN in Boston. The Huskies have been on a roll of late and I do not see any team being able to knock them off before the Final Four. They have too much size for the Aztecs and if they shoot it well at all they should be able to win this game by double digits. We will not overthink this play and just back the home Huskies.

10 Unit Play. Take #779 Texas A&M over Nebraska (6:50p.m., Friday, March 22 TNT) NCAA TOURNAMENT GAME OF THE YEAR. The Cornhuskers are getting some love after making it to the NCAA Semifinals and having a unique star in Keise Tominaga. But I am not buying them and feel they would have to shoot it outstanding to win this game. They did that in the first half against Illinois on Saturday and still lost that game by 11 points. Tominaga is a liability on defense and look for the Aggies to exploit them. Nebraska has never won an NCAA tournament game and they will struggle with the physicality of Texas A&M. Nebraska has not beaten an NCAA tournament team this season since 2/1/24.

Texas A&M underachieved most of the season but they have been playing better of late winning 5 of their last 6 games. They do not shoot it very well but rebound extremely well and should be able to take advantage of this undersized Huskers team. The SEC was a strong conference this season and the middle is much better than what Nebraska faced in the Big 10. They also have the best player on the floor in Wade Taylor IV. Most of the Huskers wins came at home this season and this game will be played in Memphis, TN. This is not the type of team that is good enough to break the NCAA Tournament drought and I feel there will be a carryover effect going into this game from their last game.

Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports

Buffalo has been playing well lately but when they lose, they lose badly. And we think this is a bad spot for them. They are on a back-to-back and playing their third game in four nights. Vancouver is well rested and has enjoyed a very light schedule lately, which is crucial at this juncture of the season. Plus the Canucks need a win. They have lost two straight one-goal games to playoff teams. They don’t want a three-game losing streak with the playoffs looming, and Buffalo is definitely vulnerable tonight. Vancouver is one of the best home teams in the NHL and we think they take care of business in a big way tonight.

Minnesota is banged up (Towns is out and Gobert is now questionable for tonight), and they are on a back-to-back and playing their third game in four nights. We don’t see them doing well against the defending champs, who are playing championship-caliber basketball right now and playing as well as any team in the NBA. They are rested since they had Monday off, and Minnesota has to be running on fumes after a hard-fought game at Utah last night. Minnesota has looked good lately but this line being so large for Denver on the road is very telling, and we think the Wolves run into a buzzsaw tonight and the Nuggets get a comfortable win on the road. These teams also have identical records, so this game will be important for playoff seeding. Another reason for Denver to bring their A Game.

The Spurs aren’t favored often, but they are a rightful favorite tonight. Brooklyn is at the tail of a long road trip that has seen them go 1-4, with losses to Detroit and Charlotte. They needed a strong showing on this road trip for any hopes of the postseason, but they fell flat on their faces. They probably just want to get home, and we don’t see them suddenly giving an inspired performance here in San Antonio against an improving Spurs team. Brooklyn is also on a back-to-back, and they were run ragged by the Pacers on Saturday in a 20+-point loss. The Spurs were off on Saturday and they will enjoy home court advantage tonight. The Spurs have been underrated by the oddsmakers and they have covered six of nine. This team has been quietly improving all season long and they have some nice players that have been developing. We see them notching a comfortable win tonight.

10 Unit Play. Take #854 Iowa State Cyclones over Baylor Bears (9:30p.m., Thursday, March 15 ESPN) CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT GAME OF THE YEAR We went against Baylor last Saturday for our top play and will do so again on Friday as our Conference Tournament Game of the Year! The home crowd plays a major edge in the Big 12 Conference Tournament and Iowa State is driving distance away from Kansas City. Baylor is not the same team as they have been in past years, and they do not shoot it as well against good teams. Iowa State has revenge, losing their only meeting with Baylor this season and just do not have any bad conference losses on the season. They want to play Houston in the finals, whereas Baylor might want the extra rest. Hilton South will be alive and kicking as the Cyclones move on and we lay the small change with them on Friday night.

Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports

Orlando is one of the best ATS teams in the league and they keep quietly getting the job done. They have son six of eight and have covered in every win. Toronto has all sorts of problems and they are not only banged up now but have a major non-hoops related absence tonight. They have lost seven of eight and covered in only two of those games despite some very generous lines from the oddsmakers. The Magic blew the Raptors out in the last meeting and we think there is a very good chance this is another double-digit win as the Magic are healthy and well rested.

Embiid is really an MVP type player and the way the Sixers have fallen apart really shows how much he means to the team. They put up 79 points last time out in a loss to the Knicks, and this will be another tough game for them. No doubt Doc Rivers will want to lay the beat down on his former team. We don’t see the Bucks letting down for this matchup and we expect them to keep hooping until the final buzzer sounds.

Orlando is by far the strongest ATS team in the league this season and they are being underestimated by the oddsmakers once again. This is a young team and they will have a dud every now and then. That was surely the case last time out as they played one of their worst games of the season, a 98-74 loss at New York. We will give them a mulligan on that one, however, and expect they come out strong here in this one. Indiana has lost three of four and this team has been inconsistent lately. Orlando has held four of six opponents under the century mark and we think that defense wins this matchup on Sunday.

7 Unit Play. Take #686 Texas Tech over Baylor (6p.m., Saturday, March 9 ESPN2) An unranked team that is favored over a ranked team is always a strong betting trend. This is senior day in Lubbock, TX and I am looking for the Red Raiders to take care of business against an overrated Bears team. Baylor is coming off back-to-back wins against their traditional rivals in Kansas and Texas and I see a letdown for them in this game. Baylor is 4-8 ATS in their last 12 games following 3 straight wins. Homecourt is still strong in the Big 12 and Texas Tech wants this game to finish off with 3 straight wins and improve their seeding in both the conference and NCAA Tournaments.

Miami has been playing great basketball but we think the oddsmakers have overinflated this number so we have to plug our nose and take the Pistons here. The Pistons had a horrible start to the season and injuries were a major issue. Some felt heading into the season that this team could make the play in. But they ended up setting the NBA record for longest losing streak. But this team has gotten healthy and has been very competitive lately. They are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games. There were a couple of those ATS losses that were close, also. They didn’t play well last time out vs. Orlando so we think we will see a better effort here. And Miami goes on the road after this one to play at Dallas and at OKC on back-to-back nights starting Thursday.  They probably won’t give full effort here and that should play to our advantage. Detroit has covered in seven of the last eight meetings, so they normally get up for this opponent.

The Clippers have been overrated by the oddsmakers lately compared to their effort on the court and they are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10. They come in on a back-to-back after a hard-fought win at Minnesota in a game that probably meant more to the team than tonight’s matchup at Milwaukee from the Eastern Conference. This Clippers squad isn’t the youngest team, so back-to-backs can really take their toll at this point in the season. It doesn’t get any easier with this matchup at the Bucks, who have won and covered five straight and are rounding into postseason form. We think Doc Rivers will do all he can to beat his old team, and the Clippers are definitely looking vulnerable tonight as they have been inconsistent since the all start break and we just think this is a real bad spot for them tonight.

The Cavs haven’t covered in their last seven games. They have been winning quite a bit, but they haven’t been dominating. Detroit has been the opposite as they have been losing but covering as they are exceeding the oddsmaker expectations recently. They have covered in three straight and six out of nine. They have also covered in three straight meetings (all losses), and we think they will play well enough to keep this one close.  

The Lakers are banged up as LeBron and AD are suffering from various ailments and won’t be 100 percent, although both are expected to play. They better bring their A Game, because the Clippers always do in this matchup. If you have followed our service for a long time, you would know that we always think of this as a one-sided rivalry. The Lakers are the Clippers biggest rival, so they always bring their best. The Lakers have more traditional rivals, so this is just another game to them. In fact, they often like to make it seem like they don’t care at all about the Clippers, and that often shows on the court, as the Clippers have won 12 of 14 meetings, and they have had a lot of success in this series since the early Lob City days. Both squads have been sluggish out of the break, but we are confident the deep Clippers, without George, will bring their best performance to the court tonight.

The Knicks took all they could handle from the Pistons last night and now this very thin roster finds itself on a back-to-back against a much better squad. We don’t think the slumping Knicks have a chance here. The Knicks have covered in only one of the last five meetings. They have dropped six of their last nine overall and those three wins were not against quality opponents (the Sixers are banged up now also). The Pels get it done tonight with a comfortable win.

These teams played Tuesday and the Timberwolves scored a comfortable win. The game wasn’t as one-sided as the final scored might indicate as the Blazers entered the fourth quarter down only one before falling apart late. But it’s very tough to win two games in a row on the opponent’s floor in the span of two consecutive games. Revenge is an overrated factor in handicapping as it is in college ball because these guys are professionals and they let losses slip away after the game and move on to the next matchup. But when teams play in consecutive games like this, it is definitely a factor and we think Portland will give an extra push to play a more complete game here. The Blazers are a bad team. But they are on a level above the real dregs like Washington, San Antonio and Charlotte. This team is competitive, can score some big wins over strong opponents, and they have covered in close to half their games. So we don’t think the Wolves will just come in and dominate here. Portland has covered in four of their last seven. One of those ATS losses was by a half point, so we think they have been playing slightly above the oddsmakers expectations lately and we think they will give it all they have tonight in the rematch as rest is coming during the all0star break.

San Jose was playing well entering the all star break winning four of six. One of those losses was in OT. Strangely this is their first game back from the all star break, so we think they will have a lot of energy. Winnipeg is the much better team but they are not playing well lately and have dropped five of six. Their two most recent wins have been by one goal each, and the last two meetings have been one goal games.

Orlando is a fine team and they have been solid this season at covering the spread and winning games. But we think they are out of their depth here tonight. The Thunder are a true championship contender and we think if they come and play their game in Orlando that they will win comfortably here at the Kia Center. OKC has covered in five of the last six meetings. They have lost two of three, but those were at Dallas and Utah, so they will be motivated to play well here. Orlando has been playing well but they have had a somewhat easy schedule and they have been a bit inconsistent compared to the start of the season. They are also not getting as much value in their lines as they were early in the season as the bookies have caught on to the talent and capabilities of this team. But we think a motivated Thunder team wins this one going away, and there looks to be plenty of value in this line.

The Timberwolves match up well with the Clippers and they have had a lot of success against them. They have won and covered five of the last six meetings, including two of three in Los Angeles. Minnesota comes into this one very well rested and they have tons of confidence after going into Milwaukee and laying a beatdown on the Bucks last time out. They also have recent wins against OKC and Dallas, so they have been raising their game against the best competition. We feel this will be a very close game and think the Wolves have a great chance for the outright win, and they are getting great value on the spread here.

10 Unit Play. Take #102 Kansas City Chiefs over San Francisco 49ers (6:30p.m., Sunday, February 11 CBS) You can make a case for either team in this game, but we will side with the team that has the better defense along with the best quarterback in the league. Kyle Shannon has a tendency to freeze up in big games and I am just not sure Brody Purdy can carry him over the finish line. The Chiefs have had a great defense all season long with Chris Jones able to make plays and get to the quarterback. The 49ers will have their moments, but in the end the Chiefs will prevail and win their third Super Bowl in the last 5 years.

10 Unit Play. Take #708 Ohio State Buckeyes over Maryland Terrapins (4p.m., Saturday, February 10 FS1) TOP PLAY OF THE DAY Nothing good can be said about Ohio State of late, but they did cash for us in December with our Nonconference Game of the Year against UCLA. Now they play a terrible road team in Maryland, as Ohio State is desperate for any kind of a win. The Buckeyes have lost 5 straight games, and their coach is clearly on the hot seat. But they have talent and Maryland is one of the worst shooting teams in the conference, especially from the arc. You cannot lose them all and Ohio State picks up a much-needed victory at home on Saturday.

Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports

Despite the Rockets poor play on the road, we had them favored in this matchup. Toronto after the Trade Deadline looks like one of the worst teams in the NBA and they will likely be tanking the rest of the season. The Raptors will miss VanVleet for sure as he is out for likely a few games but we think that Houston has a good enough roster, plus the motivation, to win here. They looked pretty good in their first game with VanVleet sidelined as they went toe to toe with the Pacers on the road and lost by three, easily covering the 8-point spread. The Rockets aren’t going to win a lot of games on the road this season, but this looks like a very winnable game for them. They need every win they can get for the postseason so we think they will be focused here. Toronto is playing their first home game after a long road trip, and those are often tricky since players have obligations in their personal lives, and for Toronto with no hope, those probably outweigh the game tonight. The Raptors haven’t been just losing but they haven’t been covering, either, despite some generous lines from the oddsmakers.

We were on the Thunder last meeting between these two. The line was similar, and we had a massive play on OKC and honestly we were lucky to win that one as everything went right for us in the last 30 seconds. Utah is rested and healthy, and they have revenge here for the earlier meeting. They had a real chance to win that one outright. OKC has three nights off after this game then a trip to Dallas, and as a result they may not be full focused here. Even if they are, the Jazz are strong enough at home to beat any team, any night.

Brooklyn has won three of four and are playing well at the moment. They have enjoyed a light playing schedule lately and should be primed to defend the home court tonight. The same can’t be said for Golden State. While not on a back-to-back, they will be playing their third road game in four nights, and it’s not like this is the youngest bunch… so fatigue will be a factor. The Warriors are just 8-11 on the road this season. These teams played last month in the Bay Area, and Brooklyn held their own in a four-point loss. We think they match up well and will be able to get their revenge here. Golden State covered that one by just the hook, and that was their first cover in four games in this series. The Nets have actually covered in six of the last eight.

Love the Clippers in this spot. Miami has been underachieving lately and they have been overvalued by the oddsmakers. They have covered two straight but that followed a seven-game non cover streak. The Clippers play tomorrow also, but this team has been taking things one game at a time this season more than season’s past, and we think they will be extra focused on this very winnable game. Oh, and they have also covered in eight of the last 10 meetings.

10 Unit Play. Take #702 Kansas Jayhawks over Houston Cougars (4p.m., Saturday, February 3 ESPN) COLLEGE BASKETBALL GAME OF THE YEAR Kansas at home getting points is too good to pass up. Houston does not face this type of environment in the AAC, but will see it on Saturday now they are a member of the Big 12. Kansas takes great pride in winning the Big 12 and this is a game they need to win if they have any hopes of winning the conference come March. This will be the Cougars third road game in their last four games, and they will not be able to push around Kansas in Lawrence. The Jayhawks have the much better offensive team and are coming off their best performance of conference play last time out. That was without Kevin McCullar, who is probable for this game. Kanas needs this game more, and they will get it by 6-8 points. They should never be an underdog at home and we will gladly ride them in this game.

The Rockets have been a bit back and forth lately but we think this is a good spot for them, and the line is more than fair. They seem to be locked into winning every other game lately, and good for us they lost last time out. That was against a better team, and this is a good spot for a bounce back. Toronto has been a very poor road team and have just seven wins away from home. They have covered in two straight but haven’t been good in general at covering despite some generous lines from the oddsmakers. Houston has covered in three of their last four, so they are playing a bit better than expectations. They have also covered in seven of the last nine meetings in this series.

The Spurs are vastly improving throughout the season right in front of our eyes, and this is a team that should have great betting value down the stretch run of the season. They have covered in five of the last seven and have been underrated by the oddsmakers. Orlando started off the season great, but it looks like they may not be as good as advertised as they have fallen off quite a bit recently. San Antonio has covered in seven of the last nine meetings, so they have a strong history here.

10 Unit Play. Take #319 Kansas City Chiefs over Baltimore Ravens (3p.m., Sunday, January 28 CBS) The Ravens have the better all-around team, but the Chiefs have the best player on the field, and we will gladly back Mahomes and the points in this game. The Kansas City offense played their best game of the season last time out against Buffalo and I look for that to continue in this game as well. Baltimore has all the pressure on them, as QB Jackson will win his second straight MVP and need a Super Bowl to validate his outstanding career. The Chiefs have a strong defense that can cause issues for QB Jackson with their blitz schemes, and I look for them to take this one down to the wire. KC seems to have a knack for winning close games and Sunday should be no different.

Even though the Celtics already got a comfortable win over Miami at the start of the season, we are confident revenge is still on their mind from the playoff series loss. And they are in a great spot for a big win tonight. They are healthy and have had two nights off, while the Heat come in on a back-to-back. They lost last night at home to the banged-up Grizzlies in another ugly performance that marked their fourth straight loss. All those opponents were much worse teams than the Celtics. Boston should be extra motivated tonight and they won’t take it easy on the Heat just because they are struggling. We think they bring their A Game tonight and score a double digit win.

San Jose, surprisingly, has won two straight. They beat the Ducks and then last night beat their arch rivals, the LA Kings, on the road in OT. That was the biggest win they will likely have this season and creates a very strong letdown spot tonight. The Sharks have no reason to exert themselves on a back-to-back here. There was probably a great celebration last night. This team isn’t chasing a wild card or anything. This is the definition of a team Fat and Happy and they probably just don’t care much about this game. The Rangers have lost six of their last nine against a very difficult schedule, so this is the perfect Get Right game for them and we think this matchup will be very one-sided.

This one is a road game for the Knicks but one of the easiest road games in the NBA. These teams are going in opposite directions and we don’t see the Nets being too competitive here. They have been getting some pretty generous lines from the oddsmakers and still haven’t been covering. The Knicks are playing some of the best defense in the NBA since their big trade, and we think they will shut down the Nets inconsistent offense. The Knicks have won and covered in three straight meetings, and we expect a comfortable win tonight.

10 Unit Play. Take #316 Detroit Lions over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3p.m., Sunday, January 21 NBC) NFL Playoff Game of the Year. The Buccaneers are a team that nobody wants to advance except for those in Florida and I see their season coming to an end on Sunday. Tampa Bay played well against Philadelphia last time out, but the two games prior they struggled against teams that did not even make the playoffs. Detroit will be rocking again for this game, as the Lions look to reach the conference championship round for the first time in over 30 years. The Lions have the more balanced offense this season and can beat you on the ground or through the air. Tampa Bay is reliant on the passing game and torching Philadelphia is one thing, but Detroit has a much better defense. These teams already met earlier this season with Detroit winning by a score of 20-6 at Raymond James Stadium. Detroit has been a story all season long in the NFL and that will continue with a double-digit victory at home. The Lions knocked off a hot team last week and will knock off another hot team on Sunday. This is the toughest ticket in the divisional round and the 12th man will also be a factor, as will the experience of Jared Goff (super bowl quarterback).

Utah has been playing great basketball, and OKC is coming off a pair of losses. But it is very telling that the Thunder are laying some points here on the road. Sharp bettors pounded OKC when the line was released, but there is still plenty of value at this number. Even though OKC is playing their third game in four nights, they are coming in off a night off, and this team is young, athletic, and conditioned, and we don’t see fatigue being an issue. Props to the Jazz as they have been playing great, but they are a hot team that will likely flame out in the postseason very quickly, while the Thunder are a legit championship contender. And OKC has been one of the most reliable betting teams for the last few years. The Thunder will take this game very seriously after a pair of losses to the Lakers and Clippers. Utah was supposed to play Golden State last night, but the game was postponed due to the tragedy with the Warriors coach. This blip might have thrown the Jazz off their momentum. OKC always plays well against the Jazz. They have won and covered in four straight meetings. Utah has covered in only one of the last eight meetings (one push).

Love the Clippers in this spot. They are coming off a rare loss at Minnesota that wasn’t as close as the final score indicated, so they will want to get back on track here. OKC comes in on a back-to-back after a really tough game against the Lakers last night. They expended lots of energy in that one, so facing a better team in the second leg will be difficult.  We love that this number is on the good side of the key NBA betting number of 7, as that is the point where the losing team stops fouling at the end of the game and concedes the loss.

The Hawks are 9-29 ATS on the season, so you have to take notice when they are laying a number like this. We really like the way the Spurs have been improving. They are coached by one of the best to ever do it, and he is getting the most out of his club at the moment. They are no longer an easy blowout for their opponent. They have covered six straight games. This Spurs team is starting to show the recipe for a team we really like to bet on. They are underappreciated by the oddsmakers and betting public, yet they are competing on a nightly basis and covering but not winning a lot of games. So if they stay under the radar, they can produce a lot of betting profits. They have also covered two straight and three of four against the Hawks.

This line is just ridiculous that the Jazz are the underdog. This just shows the power of the Lakers as the public team in the NBA. They have dropped five of seven and they aren’t looking like a championship contender at the moment. The Jazz are on a B2B but they have won seven of eight and are playing as well as any team in the NBA right now. We had the Jazz handicapped at -3, so there is great value here tonight.

10 Unit Play. Take #144 Kansas City Chiefs over Miami Dolphins (8:15p.m., Saturday, January 13 Peacock) The Dolphins lost the division on Sunday Night Football and now must travel to play a night game against the Chiefs in chilly conditions. The temperature for this game will be around zero degrees and that will give the Chiefs a great advantage for this game. Miami is also banged up on defense with numerous injuries and I just do not see them coming away with a victory. These two teams met earlier this season with the Chiefs winning in London to make to 4 straight against the Dolphins. Kansas City has won 3 of their last 4 games and Miami just does not beat very many top tier teams. The Chiefs have their problems on offense, but they have a strong defense and a great home field advantage. Lay the points, as the Chiefs will win this game by double-digits.

The road trip languishes on for this Raptors club and they face a Utah team that has been dominant lately but doesn’t get the notice of the oddsmakers or public bettors because of the lack of big names on the team. But we think they show up tonight with their great home court advantage and a team that seems to be brimming with confidence right now. The oddsmakers have been too slow to adjust to how this team is playing right now.

7 Unit Play. Take #726 Ohio State over Wisconsin (8:30p.m., Wednesday, January 10 BTN) Always like to use an unranked team that is favored over a ranked team. Ohio State needs this game, as they have a strong record but do not have many quality wins on the season. The Buckeyes are coming off a loss to Indiana by 6 points in which Burce Thornton and Roddy Gayle could not make many shots. I just do not see them struggling that bad at home in a game they need to have. Wisconsin has been playing well of late but they have blowout losses against NCAA Tournament teams and Ohio State is in the field of 68. Playing on the road is tough in the Big 10 and Wisconsin will not get the calls they are used to getting at the Kohl Center. Play the home team tonight in Columbus.

These teams played a week ago, in Sacramento, and the Hornets not only covered by won outright by seven points. We think they match up well here. Forget about the revenge factor. Enough time has passed since that game, and the Kings have bigger aspirations than holding a grudge over the lowly Hornets. The biggest factor here is that the Kings are on a back-to-back and playing their third game in four nights. This isn’t the deepest team, and they have had a handful of B2Bs this season and haven’t covered a single one. The Hornets have won and covered in eight of the last ten meetings, and normally bring their A Game against the Kings. We believe that will happen again tonight and expect a close game.

Damian Lillard will be out here for the Bucks, but that absence is already cooked into the line. The Bucks are off a tough road trip where they lost two of three, and they have lost three of four overall. So we think here, back at home against an inferior opponent, that we are going to see a very focused and determined Bucks team. If they had been playing better they might overlook this game, but they need a big performance tonight and to get far enough ahead where they won’t leave anything to chance at the end of the game. The Bucks are 16-3 at home, and Utah is one of the worst road teams in the NBA at 6-15. Utah is coming off a rare road win at Philly and they are probably Fat and Happy right now and won’t give full effort here. The Bucks have won and covered three in a row in this series, and the last two were blowouts. We see the same result happening here tonight.

Now this is what we like to see: Houston back in the underdog role. We went against them last night and they were blown out by Minnesota. There’s a good chance they were looking ahead to this game. Even though the Timberwolves have the best record in the Western Conference, they don’t move the meter for excitement like Milwaukee does. Houston is a solid team and they are one of the best teams in the NBA ATS. We just don’t see them getting blown out two nights in a row. And the Bucks aren’t in top form right now as they have lost three of six and covered in only two of those games. In fact, the Bucks have been overrated by the oddsmakers and they are just 15-9-1 ATS on the season. Houston played the Bucks tough in Milwaukee last month but lost and didn’t cover. We think they will do better here at home. They didn’t mount any comeback last night, so they should be more fresh than normal with the lack of energy expended. And a B2B at home is much more easy to navigate than on the road.

Nothing against Houston here. We think they are a solid team and often a value bet. Heck, we took them for our 8-Unit season win total pick on the over. They have covered a lot of games this season since they were a surprise competitive team and also they were getting some generous lines from the oddsmakers. The oddsmakers have caught up with them a bit, and they aren’t surprising teams any more. Also, they are going to face the ups and downs that come with a young team coming out of its rebuild. They have lost six of their last 10 and haven’t covered in any of the losses. We think this team will make the play in tourney for sure, but across the court from them will be a team that is championship ready. Only the Celtics have a better record in the NBA. The Wolves will take this game very seriously as they are off a couple tough losses. They don’t want a three-game losing streak. They have won seven of the last eight meetings and covered in six of those. We expect them to bring their A Game tonight.

These have been two of the best ATS teams in the league this season. But we think Houston is the better team, and they have been great at home this season, while the Nets have been bad on the road. Both teams have been struggling a bit, but Houston got a massive blowout win over the Pistons last time out, and that is the perfect thing for a confidence boost to get things back on track. They have had an incredibly tough schedule lately, and that is one of the reasons they haven’t been racking up wins. Brooklyn has been really struggling lately and has only a pair of wins over the Pistons to show for recent efforts, and they haven’t been covering lines like they did at the start of the season.

We said it before with our sharp ATS winner on Detroit over Boston last time out that now that the pressure of the longest losing streak in NBA history is off the Pistons, they are free to play better. And they have. They played one of their best games of the season last time out against Boston and even sent the game to OT before losing. They showed some grit in getting the game to OT in the final minutes. Now they take a big step down in competition against a Raptors team that is horrible on the road and also on a back-to-back. We thought the Pistons had the talent to possibly reach the play in before the season started so it’s not like this team doesn’t have the talent to win games. They have had major chemistry issues and injuries. We think this is a winnable game for them tonight.

10 Unit Play. Take #258 Kentucky Wildcats over Clemson Tigers (12p.m., Friday, December 29 ESPN) GATOR BOWL, COLLEGE BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR SEC is better than the ACC and Kentucky is the more battle tested team in this game. The Wildcats appear to have more players available for this game with the Tigers having a bunch of players sitting out for this game. Kentucky should have their quarterback and running back for this game and will be able to move the football against the Tigers. Kentucky is 3-1 ATS in 2023 when they are an underdog. The long layoff will help them in this game.

Clemson’s streak of double digit wins already ended this season and I just do not see them being that motivated to play in this game. Their offense is just not as strong as it has been in year’s past. The Tigers defense was outstanding this season, but it came against weak competition and some of their talent will not be playing in this game. Motivation is the deciding factor, as Kentucky is happy to be here and travels well to their bowl games in the Southeast. With a total in the mid 40’s getting this many points with the underdog is too good to pass up.

The Clippers were on a nine-game winning streak but since have lost two straight. This team was banged up and overworked, and they lost by double-digits at OKC and last time out at home to Boston. But LA didn’t play on Xmas and they are at home here the day after, which is a big advantage as we are confident they will be in a better place mentally than the Hornets, on the road after the holiday. We always like to take a good team after a bad game, and the Clippers were embarrassed last time out here vs. Boston. Good teams normally up the effort after a game like that, and Charlotte is certainly a team that can be susceptible to a blowout. They have lost four straight road games by double digits. The Clippers have won and covered in four of the last five meetings.

The Wizards are a bad team. But they are not bad on the level of the Pistons or Spurs. They have a couple players that can make a difference, and they have been a decent bet in spots. And we think one of those spots is tonight. And we think one of those players that can make a difference is Jordan Poole, the former Warrior who was punched by Draymond Greene in practice, but he was kind of disrespected in the trade that brought Chris Paul to the Warriors. We think he will raise his game up tonight. Washington actually has covered more games than Golden State. They are on a B2B but have covered four straight after winning in Portland last night. They have three nights off after this game, so they don’t need to hold back for energy. The Warriors play on Saturday then also on Christmas at Denver, so we don’t know how focused they will be here. They have been double digit favorites twice this season and didn’t cover in either game.

It’s tough sometimes to go against a team like the Clippers who have won nine straight and are playing as well as anyone in the league. But we think this is a real bad spot for the Clippers. They are coming in on a back-to-back. This is their third road game in four nights. This is a veteran Clippers team that has seen it all and done it all, and we don’t think they care about the streak nearly as much as the fans do. This seems like a game they might not give full effort in. Some members of the team have been sick. Kawhi Leonard has played unprecedented minutes to start the season, and he got really banged around last night. The Thunder have had two nights off and are completely healthy. They have won four of five, including a road game against the defending champs. They are one of the best ATS teams in the NBA at 17-8 on the season.

Ja Morant should return to the court on Tuesday, but we think this will hurt an already struggling team in the short term. This team already has chemistry issues and now will insert a new puzzle into the mix. Morant will get his numbers but we doubt he will make the team competitive right away. Plus, the Grizzlies are massively banged up right now. This roster is paper thin. The Grizzlies have lost five straight and have failed to cover in any of those games despite generous lines from the oddsmakers. New Orleans has won seven of nine (6-3 ATS), and they are playing playoff-quality basketball right now.

10 Unit Play. Take #636 Ohio State Buckeyes over UCLA Bruins (3p.m., Saturday, December 16 CBS) NONCONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR. The Bruins still take money in the desert and thus this line is lower than it should be. UCLA has played just one game this entire month and this will be their second trip to the east coast in the last 7 days. They had to replace a ton of veterans from their squad from last season and they are really struggling to score points this season. Ohio State is coming off a bad loss to Penn State last Saturday, a game in which they led by 18 points. This is a strong offensive team and they want to get back to the NCAA Tournament after missing out last season. They should be close to full strength for this game with Roddy Gayle and Scotty Middleton available and that means they will have 3 of the 4 best players on the floor for this game. The Bruins are the second youngest team in the country among major conferences and will enter this game in Atlanta having lost 3 of their last 5 games. Ohio State is 9th in 3 points shooting and 15th in adjusted efficiency. Early in the year I will take the better offensive team compared to the team that has a higher upside come March. Ohio State wins this pick’em game and we collect in the process as well.

The Clippers are very quietly playing as well as any team in the Western Conference right now. While other teams – including the Clippers opponent right now – have tons of drama surrounding them, Kawhi and co. have put their heads down and gotten to work. This team always had the talent, but they had chemistry issues. But they seemed to have worked those out, and this is a real championship contender now that they are playing well. There is a current circus going on in Golden State and they have not been playing well overall. We think they are in for a tough night tonight as LA should be clicking on all cylinders and they will want to put their best foot forward as they are currently tied for the season series.

The Knicks’ defense has been their calling card but they are faltering in that aspect and they have given up 130+ in three straight games. They aren’t going to win a lot until they fix the defensive issues. The Jazz are getting healthy and could see Markkanen return tonight. The Knicks have covered just one of the last five meetings (one push) and we don’t see their road trip getting off to a good start tonight.

10 Unit Play. Take #124 Los Angeles Chargers over Denver Broncos (4:25p.m., Sunday, December 10 CBS) The Broncos came back to reality last week and Russell Wilson could not rally them late despite having a first and goal to win this game. He threw 3 interceptions in that game and now must face a more talented Charger team in their second straight road game. Los Angeles has covered the spread in 5 of their last 7 divisional home games. The last time Denver visited Sofi Stadium they lost 51-14 and the Chargers always seem to rally late in the season to get back into playoff contention.

We were unsure how serious teams would take the in season tournament, but some teams did take it seriously, and now that we are close to the finals we think teams will start to take it very seriously. And while the Pacers are a very solid club and their offense is almost unprecedented, with both teams playing at their best, we think Milwaukee is the much better team. They had some new pieces to acclimate on the team but you get the sense recently this team is turning the corner. They scored their highest point total of the season last time out, 146-122, against the Knicks in tourney action. New York is one of the best defensive teams in the league. While it might not be evident when looking at final scores, they have been improving on the defensive side. The Pacers are all offense but not defense. The Bucks can match the Pacers on offense but they have a defensive edge that will be the difference in this game in Las Vegas today.

The Sixers have won nine of the last 10 meetings and covered in seven of those games. The Sixers are a more complete team at this point of the season. The Lakers two stars are banged up for this game, and LeBron could miss the game. We like the Sixers for a big win whether LeBron and AD play or not. Every team gives their best effort against the Lakers, but this is just another game for LA, who is trying to work out the kinks. This team is definitely focused on the postseason more than the regular season. Philly has been one of the best betting teams this season, and they are undervalued again today.

Boston didn’t win the cup last season, but this is the team that most opponents get hyped to play. Are you going to get more hyped if Boston or Vegas comes to town? The answer is obvious. Columbus is playing their best hockey of the season recently. They have won two of the last three, including a road win in New Jersey, and they have covered the puckline in five of their last seven losses. The Bruins are playing their worst stretch of hockey recently. They have lost three of the last four. Their defense has dropped from the No. 1 spot after allowing 12 goals in their last two games. The Blue Jackets have won of covered the puckline in three of the last four visits from the Bruins.

10 Unit Play. Take #251 Jacksonville Jaguars over Houston Texans (1p.m., Sunday, November 26 CBS) TOP FOOTBALL PLAY OF THE WEEKEND Houston should have lost last week to Arizona, as CJ Stroud played his worst game as a professional. Now they face the divisional leader Jaguars, a team that just destroyed the Titans last time out. Just feel the Texans will hit a wall in the later portion of the season. The Jaguars have won 8 straight games playing outside of Jacksonville (8-0 ATS as well). Houston is not ready for primetime, and Trevor Lawrence and company will lock up the division with a victory today.

10 Unit Play. Take #142 Michigan Wolverines over Ohio State Buckeyes (12p.m., Saturday, November 25 FOX) This game is for all the marbles with the winner winning the Big 10 Championship Game next week and a ticket to the playoffs. Ohio State has been one dimensional on offense and whoever runs the football better wins this game (happened over 20 years in a row). Ohio State is 8th in the Big 10 in rushing this season. I feel Michigan is better in all 3 phases of the game especially on special teams. Ohio State has Marvin Harrison, but their quarterback is subpar and I just do not believe he can beat them with his arm. Michigan against the world continues, as the Wolverines advance to the playoff with a double-digit victory at the Big House.

10 Unit Play. Take #476 Kansas City Chiefs over Philadelphia Eagles (8:15p.m., Monday, November 20 ABC) This is a rematch of Super Bowl 57 and I look for the Chiefs to win this game again. Philadelphia has been winning ugly much of the season and it will catch up to them in this game. Andy Reid is 27-4 in his career following a bye week. Kansas City is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games against NFC teams. Coach Reid will enjoy beating his former team for the second time in less than a year.

10 Unit Play. Take #367 Utah Utes over Arizona Wildcats (2:30p.m., Saturday, November 18 PAC12N) TOP NCAA FOOTBALL PLAY OF THE WEEK. Arizona has been on a roll and will enter this game having won 4 straight games. This will be the toughest team they faced in their last 5 games, as Utah will not self-destruct like UCLA, Oregon State and Washington State did. The Utes are extremely well coached and I feel the Wildcats are playing a little over their heads at the moment. They have had a great season, but this is a team that lost to Mississippi State earlier this season (just fired their coach). The spread tells me that the Wildcats are not as good as their record would indicate, and reality will hit them in this game. Jedd Fisch is a hot coaching commodity and should win Pac 12 Coach of the Year, but the overachievers take a step back on Saturday. Utah has beaten Arizona six straight times (5-1 ATS). Utah is 15-3 in their last 18 road games when they are an opening line underdog. 

Miami has been racking up the wins lately, but four of those games came against four of the worst teams in the NBA so far this season. They take a big step up in class tonight and this should be a very tough game for them. Brooklyn has won five straight meetings with Miami. The Nets are 9-1-1 ATS on the season. This team doesn’t have any big names so they don’t get respect from the oddsmakers, but they compete hard every night and play with a true team mentality. They also have plenty of talent and a roster of players that compliment each other. We think they have a great chance for the outright win tonight. Miami is not a good regular season team, and things have been going a little too well for them lately.

The Hawks have the better record right now but there’s no doubt to us that the Knicks are the better team. They already won comfortably here last month. They have been playing very well recently until they played their worst game of the season last time out on a back-to-back against Boston. But Boston is a Top 3 team in the NBA, and the Hawks should provide a nice opportunity to get back on track. This time the Hawks are on a B2B. And even though Young didn’t play last night (new father), the rest of the roster will have a tough time keeping up the pace against this physical Knicks team.

Even though it has been at home, the Knicks have won three straight. And they have looked good in the process. And sometimes building confidence at home can translate to continued success on the road. We don’t doubt that New York will be hyped for this matchup even though they are on a B2B. But they easily dispatched Charlotte on Sunday and this game was early so not too intense a B2B. These teams opened the season against each other so this sets up a revenge scenario since Boston won the first one.

10 Unit Play. Take #149 Michigan Wolverines over Penn State Nittany Lions (12p.m., Saturday, November 11 FOX) We are fading the Penn State offense in this game. Michigan has not been tested and this will be the best defense that they have faced all season long. But Penn State looked terrible against Ohio State, and I believe Michigan has a better defense than the Buckeyes. The Wolverines have won the last two games and are 6-3 straight-up and 7-2 ATS stretching that out to 9 games. Michigan has an us against the world mentality with all the outside noise going on around the program. JJ McCarthy is a much better player than Drew Allar and the offensive weapons are much better for the Wolverines. Penn State got a raw deal with this being a 12 p.m. game instead of a white out game at night. That edge allows Michigan to dominate this game and win it by double digits.

10 Unit Play. Take #269 New York Giants over Las Vegas Raiders (4:25p.m., Sunday, November 5 FOX) NFL GAME OF THE YEAR The Raiders are a mess, and we liked this play even before they fired their coach, offensive coordinator, and General Manager. Throw in they are starting a rookie at quarterback in Aiden O’Connell, and I see them really struggling on offense this entire game. Las Vegas is coming off back-to-back double-digit losses, and one of those was against the Bears. Finally, the Raiders have no home field advantage playing in Las Vegas, and expect a lot of Giants fans in attendance for this game.

The Giants did everything they could to lose a game that had over a 95% chance of winning last week. They could not muster any passing game, yet their defense played the best game of the year. The Jets offense is a lot like the Raiders offense, and I see another strong game from the Giants on Sunday. Danny Dimes is back, and that gives the Giants a much better chance to move the football via the air. He can run or pass, and he will need to utilize both in this game. The Giants are 17-8 in their last 25 games as a road underdog, including 9-0 during this streak when facing losing teams. They are 6-1 ATS (1 push) in their last 8 games against AFC teams. New York is also 4-1 ATS when facing foes coming off a Monday Night Football game. The Giants win this game, and we collect in the process as well.

Memphis is 0-5 to start the season. We think they will get their first win tonight with style points. This team has lots of talent even without Morant. This is their first game of the in season tournament, so we think there is a great chance for this to be the impetus for them to snap out of this funk. Portland will finish with one of the worst records in the west. While Memphis hasn’t played well, this roster is miles better than what the Blazers will be trotting out, and if this matchup was the first game of the season (without the way the Grizzlies have played), Memphis would probably be around a 7- or 8-point favorite here based on the talent.

We love the Jazz in this spot tonight. We think they are being punished too much by the oddsmakers for this being a back-to-back. But this is a young team, and this is early in the season, so we don’t think that will come into play tonight. The Jazz ran roughshod over the Grizzlies last night and the starters got some extra rest. No starter played more than 28 minutes. These teams don’t play often, but the Jazz are 8-1 in the last nine meetings. Orlando normally doesn’t play well here. The Magic are an exciting, up and coming team, but they were bad on the road last year and they should be this year also. The Jazz were a surprise team at the start of last season and they were one of the best betting teams early. We think they are a solid bet at this point in the season, and we expect them to win outright tonight.

10 Unit Play. Take #472 Philadelphia Eagles over Miami Dolphins (8:20p.m., Sunday, October 17 NBC) The Eagles suffered their first loss of the season on Sunday against the Jets. Expect them to bounce back in a big way tonight at home against the Dolphins, a team that has been beating up on bad team this season. Miami laid an egg against the only tough team they played this season in Buffalo, losing by 28 points on the road. The Eagles will be the best defense that they have faced in 2023 and look for them to go on another long winning streak similar to what they did in 2022. After the Eagles lost their first game of the season to the Commanders last October, they went onto win their next 5 games. The weather will be cold and not pristine conditions like Miami likes. Philadelphia is 10-1 in their last 11 games against AFC teams that won in their previous week. The Eagles get back on track, take care of the football and win this game by double-digits.

10 Unit Play. Take #326 Ohio State Buckeyes over Penn State Nittany Lions (12p.m., Saturday, October 21 FOX) Big 10 Game of the Year. Getting Ohio State playing at the Horseshoe at this line does not happen very often. Penn State has looked impressive this season, but they have not played anyone of significance and will not be battle tested for this game. Many people have been critical of Ohio State QB McCord, but he has an 11-1 touchdown to interception ratio and Penn State does not have a veteran quarterback either. Penn State has lost 10 of their last 11 games to Ohio State including 6 games in a row. The Lions have not gotten many explosive plays this season and they will need a bunch in order to beat Ohio State. Coach Franklin does not win many road games against elite teams and Saturday should be no different. DC Manny Diaz never seems to live up to the hype and I always like fading him in big spots. Ohio State has great wide receivers and many of their running backs should be back for this game. The Buckeyes have improved greatly on defense and Penn State has not seen a unit this strong yet this season. Ohio State is accustomed to winning these type of games and Penn State once again in not in that class to knock off big teams in true road games. Penn State is on a monster ATS run but I look for that to end on Saturday, as Ohio State wins this game by double-digits.  

10 Unit Play. Take #190 Oregon State Beavers over UCLA Bruins (8p.m., Saturday, October 14 FOX) We went against UCLA at the Rose Bowl last week and were a tough luck loser, as Wazzou offense played terribly in the second half. Now that makes this play at Oregon State much stronger in favor of the Beavers. Oregon State is 14-1 ATS in their last 15 home games. They have already beaten Utah at home, and they have a similar quarterback situation that UCLA does (freshman on the road). The Beavers are on a rampage and want to knock off all the teams leaving the conference next season. The fan base is that much more motivated, especially when playing UCLA, a team that started the dominos falling. UCLA has a strong defense, but they will not be able to win that game on defense alone. Oregon State is the best team that have played thus far, and they will not be up to the challenge.

10 Unit Play. Take #631 New York Liberty over Las Vegas Aces (9p.m., Wednesday, October 11 ESPN) WNBA Playoff Game of the Year. The 2023 WNBA Playoffs have been a snooze fest thus far and the league, tv partners, and fans really need New York to win this game straight-up to create some excitement. The Liberty were ahead at halftime before faltering in the second half. All the games against the Aces for the Liberty have been blowouts one way or the other. The Liberty have won their fair share of games against the Aces and I am confident they will bounce back on Wednesday. Sooner or later one of these games will go down to the wire and this way be that game. New York has the best player on the floor and they have the size to contend with Las Vegas in the post. The Aces are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 WNBA Finals Games. The desperate team wins and we collect big in the process.

This is one of the greatest rivalries in all of sports and this is always the biggest game of the season for the Canadiens when they face off with Toronto. And, despite the talent disparity, Montreal normally put up a good fight or outright won the last few years. But these teams are going in different directions, and Toronto may have one of their best squads of all time this season, while Montreal is still a long way from being competitive and should be among the worst teams in the NHL this season. And the last two meetings, both in Toronto, were very one-sided as both were blowouts and the Maple Leafs had a goal differential of +10 in those two matchups. Toronto will not only want to get the season started off on the right foot but also take their main rival down a peg in the process, and with a bitter rivalry like this, there is also an incentive for the better team to run up the score, as we witnessed in the last two meetings. We expect more domination from Toronto here and a big season-opening win

10 Unit Play. Take #394 Alabama Crimson Tide over Ole Miss Rebels (3:30p.m., Saturday, September 23 CBS) TOP NCAA PLAY OF THE WEEK Many pundits and fans are throwing dirt on the grave of Alabama and Nick Saban, but I am not one of them. They have major issues at quarterback, but I feel they will right the ship on Saturday and win this game by double digits. Nick Saban is not a fan of Lane Kiffin, and he is 28-3 lifetime when facing his former assistants. Ole Miss never has a strong defense and tries to win most of their games by outscoring their opponents. They have beaten Alabama once in the past 16 meetings, and they just do not have the depth of a Nick Saban team. This is the game that Alabama will right the ship, and getting them at home with less than a touchdown is too good to pass up. 

7 Unit Play. Take #176 Florida Gators over Tennessee Volunteers (7p.m., Saturday, September 16 ESPN) The SEC appears to be way down this season and giving this many points on the road is not a recipe for success. Florida has dominated this series, winning 16 of the last 18 matchups. Tennessee has not won in Gainesville since 2003. Tennessee was loaded last year and still only beat Florida by 5 points in 2022 and that game was in Knoxville. The underdog has dominated Florida games going 14-3 ATS in their last 17 lined games. This is a rivalry game and Florida should be motivated to put on a good show and get their coach and quarterback off the hot seat.

7 Unit Play. Take #624 New York Liberty over Las Vegas Aces (7p.m., Monday, August 28 ESPN2) We will follow the line movement in this game and expect the Liberty to take care of business at home and move closer to earning the No. 1 seed in the 2023 WNBA Playoffs come September. Four of the Five losses the Aces have suffered have come on the road the Liberty have proven they can beat the Aces on the road already this season. They also have the best player in the game in Breanna Stewart and the Aces have struggled a little without Candance Parker coming off the bench. Las Vegas is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games. New York is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games. These are the dog days of August for the Aces and expect them to lose this game by close to double-digits.

8 Unit Play. Take #652 Atlanta Dream -2.5 over Chicago Sky (7:30p.m., Friday, August 18 ion) The break could not have come at a better time for Atlanta. The Dream will enter this game having lost 5 of their last 6 and did not perform well on a west coast trip. That being said, they still have 3 all-stars and are playing a depleted Chicago team that has injuries and lost their coach earlier this season. The Sky have also dropped 3 in a row and are in danger of missing the playoffs. Defense is always an issues for Chicago, as they have allowed 83 or more points in their last 8 games. Atlanta has covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 games against Chicago. The top end talent of Atlanta is just far superior to Chicago in this game and that is all you can ask for when you release a big play.

10 Unit Play. Take #620 Dallas over Connecticut (8p.m., Tuesday, July 24 ESPN3) We have been on Dallas all season long including a season win total. Tonight, will be no different, as the Wings look for their 9-home victory in only 11 attempts. Dallas has won 5 straight games and has a big three that can score points at will from anywhere on the court. Connecticut is the third best team in the league, but most of that work has been done by beating the bad teams in the league. They will be playing their second straight road game, after beating Atlanta in two consecutive games. The loss of Brionna Jones will eventually catch up to this team and prevent them from advancing far into the playoffs. Connecticut is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games played on Tuesday’s. Dallas is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games. When Dallas wins, they tend to win big, as they have won their last 2 games by 14, 10, & 40 points. This is a game Dallas needs more to remain in the top four and they will get it by close to double digits.

We think the pressure got to the Heat a bit in this series and they had just come off a grueling Eastern Conference Finals. They have never quite got their footing in this series. The pressure is essentially off now that they are in a big hole and we think they will play free here and we just think this is too many points. The Denver defense has been good, but also the Heat haven’t shot well so they are due for a better shooting game. We think they Nuggets might not bring their A Game with such a cushion in this series and we wouldn’t be surprised if the Heat challenged for the win here. We know from what we have seen in these playoffs that the Heat aren’t just going to roll over.

Some people might follow the Zig Zag Theory here in Game 4 assuming Miami will strike back and even up the series. They have been resilient for sure. But we don’t think so. Denver is the best opponent they have faced in the postseason and the Nuggets are a complete team. Denver got a wake-up call in Game 2, and they responded like we expected in Game 3 in Miami with a dominant performance. This team is hungry, and the championship is right there for them. We don’t think they are going to squander the opportunity, and we think they will treat this game as a must win and bring their A Game tonight. With that Game 3 win, Denver has now covered five straight in Miami, and they are 27-10 ATS long term against the Heat, which is a long term string of domination since these teams don’t play often.

This Heat run in the postseason has been legendary, but we have to go with our handicapping here and that states the Nuggets are the stronger team. Miami used a big fourth quarter for their Game 2 win, and they shot the lights out in that game with almost 50 percent shooting from the floor and three-point land. We think Denver will clamp down more on defense and we see a slower paced game here and we think Denver will come out on top with a comfortable win.

Love Denver in this spot in Game 2. Denver is almost unbeatable at home, and teams that win in this playoffs are covering at a very high rate. Miami looked great and this run has been incredible, but Denver is definitely their strongest opponent yet in this postseason, and the Heat have been on the wrong end of plenty of blowouts this postseason. They have lost six games in the playoffs by nine or more points. We think Miami will put up a fight in the first half but that the Nuggets will start to pull away in the second and should win this one comfortably by the final buzzer.

All the pressure is on Boston here. They have been one of the favorites in the East all season, while not much was expected out of Miami, especially after they landed in the Play In Tournament. We have history on our side here as no team has ever come back from down 3-0 to win a series. But we will go with the spread in the case of a close game. We expect a low scoring game here, and that makes the points with the underdog all the more valuable. Also love that this one is on the other side of the key NBA betting number of 7 (when the team down stops fouling at the end of the game).

Love the Celtics to win here and we think this line is more than fair after the beating Boston put on Miami in Games 4 and 5. They have totally taken back momentum in this series. We don’t know if they will go on to win this thing, but we do think they will force Game 7 tonight. Boston seems focused and they haven’t once panicked even down 3-0 in this series. They have the swagger and experience to get the job done here, and they have a major edge in talent on the floor. They have stepped it up on the defensive end the last two games, and we see more of the same here in Game 6.

Boston has tons of talent and a lot of playoff experience, and we don’t think they are out of this series yet. We don’t even think they are panicked. They sure didn’t look like it in Game 4. They put their heads down and confidently got the job done. That was a 17-point road win with their season on the line. All they need to do is take this one game at a time and a win here would put them right back in this series. And the oddsmakers seem to agree with this line. But we aren’t worried about the points here. Boston has covered in every game they have won this postseason, and in 12 straight stretching back to the regular season. Even though we took Miami in the first three games of this series, we love to back the Celtics this season because of their resilience and their competitive fire. They don’t want to just win, they want to dominate. We think they captured the momentum in this series and we expect another big win as they have seemed to figure things out a bit and made the necessary adjustments.

The Celtics have a lot of postseason experience and we don’t think they will be too panicked here. It is rare to come back from this deficit, but the Celtics can take it one game at a time and get back in this series. A win here, and they are back at home and favored for Game 5. Miami has been the better team in the series but the Celtics have the players are experience to avoid the sweep tonight. Also, might the refs give Boston some extra calls? We are confident the NBA doesn’t want two sweeps in the conference finals.

It is very rare to get a sweep in the NBA Playoffs, especially the conference finals, and we just don’t see it happening today. The Nuggets have the series firmly in hand, and they will likely let up a little here and won’t have that killer instinct on the road, while the Lakers will be clinging to any last hope to save their season and extend this series another game. Even though Game 3 was pretty one-sided, the Lakers hung tough in Games 1 and 2, and we think they go all out to get the win here tonight.

The Nuggets match up very well with the Lakers and despite this being a must win for LA, we think Denver has a great chance to put LA on the brink of elimination here then they could let down in Game 4. But we think this team is very hungry for a championship and Denver will treat this like a must win. Denver has shown they can hang with the Lakers offensively, but they are the stronger defensive team, and that will be the difference here in Game 3, at least where the spread is concerned as we just don’t see LA running away with this one.

We are a big believer that when Boston wins they normally cover. But we think this may be a rare situation where they win but don’t cover the spread. This is simply too many points. We had this line handicapped at 6, so this number, on the other side of the key NBA number of 7 (when a team with the lead stops getting fouled at the end of the game), offers very nice value. Miami is playing their best basketball of the season right now and they have proven to be a legit championship contender. We are sure they are aware that Boston came back from an early hole to beat Philly, so we think they will go all out to try and win this one and put Boston in the worst possible spot for the series.

Denver is almost unbeatable at home, and we expect another big performance tonight. The Lakers have surprised in the playoffs and they have looked good, but they will be facing, in our opinion, the best team in the west here, and they are taking a big step up in competition for the conference finals. The Lakers haven’t been good on the road this season. And they have had trouble in Denver in the last couple seasons, where they are 1-5-1 ATS in the last seven meetings here. Denver is 21-9 ATS at home against above .500 teams, and they will be ready for another dominant performance tonight.

Philly had Boston right where they wanted them for Game 6 with a chance to close it out at home, but they couldn’t get the job done and now Boston is a decent favorite at home to win the series and they have all the momentum. Boston is one of the teams we love to trust as they usually win by more than the spread when they do win. And they are excellent as a favorite. Boston has tons of postseason experience and the guys know what they need to do here. We think they bring their A Game today.