Sports Picks & Predictions

This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS for our NFL Super Bowl Dominator. Two things that are hard to go against are first, Patrick Mahomes and his experience and second, a very solid Kansas City defense. Mahomes is Mahomes, no need to delve into that. The Chiefs bottled up the Ravens offense and while Baltimore has a strong offense, the 49ers offense is on a different level and can strike from anywhere. The 49ers were No. 2 in overall DVOA and No. 1 in offensive DVOA during the regular season and Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle lead arguably the best skill position group in the league and they are all healthy and while Brock Purdy has not been on this stage, he carried San Francisco last week and he possesses a confidence not seen from many young quarterbacks. He quietly led the NFL in EPA Per Play and will not be phased. While the Chiefs defense has carried the team, the 49ers defense was certainly so slouch as it finished No. 4 in defensive DVOA and faces a Kansas City offense that has been off all season long. The Chiefs benefitted from Buffalo and Baltimore mistakes in the last two games and they were shut out last week in the second half in Baltimore and they cannot get away with that here. Kansas City has the more experienced team in this situation playing in the Super Bowl now for the fourth time in five years and Mahomes as an underdog has been nearly unbeatable but the all around roster makes San Francisco the team to beat and the line is on our side and will likely remain under the key number of three. Here, we play on teams where the line is +3 to -3 after three or more consecutive losses against the spread going up against an opponent after two or more consecutive wins against the spread. This situation is 39-14 ATS (73.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (101) San Francisco 49ers

This is a play on the DETROIT LIONS for our NFC Championship Winner. Detroit did not exactly dominate in its two playoff games but came away with wins thanks to clutch defense and playing turnover-free football. The Lions key here is to slow this game down as much as possible as they want to avoid a shootout and to do that will be establishing a running game which they can do against a 49ers weakness of late. They finished last week with a very strong 61 percent success rate on early downs against a very good Tampa Bay run defense. That will set up the passing and while much has been said about quarterback Jared Goff being much worse when not playing indoors and while true, this is not a horrible matchup for him. He is going to face some heavy blitzing against a 49ers defense that has a great sack rate but when Goff faces a team with a sack rate of four percent or higher, he has gone 15-4 ATS in his career. The Lions defense has gotten a lot of heat as it is considered a big weakness but they come in as the No. 1 ranked DVOA defense against the run and they will gladly accept having Brock Purdy beat them. The big story here is the status of 49ers receiver Deebo Samuel who is listed at 50/50 which likely means he will be playing and we probably will not know a definite answer until right up to gameday and with this number, it is based on him playing so if ruled out, it will likely come back down under a touchdown. 72 percent of the money is on the Lions yet the line has moved the opposite direction and that is actually a good sign as public money has not really entered the picture yet. 10* (321) Detroit Lions

This is a play on the BALTIMORE RAVENS for our AFC Championship Winner. Baltimore has been one of the more dominating teams in recent memory when it comes to metrics and after toying with the Texans last week, the Ravens poured it on in the second half. They are peaking at the best time and most importantly in January, they are close to as healthy as they have been all season. Baltimore is 14-4 overall and it has not been a soft 14-4. The Ravens have gone 7-2 against playoff teams, not counting the Week 18 loss against the Steelers where they rested starters, winning those games by an average of 17 ppg. At home, Baltimore had 10 games and all were against teams that finished above .500 and again, not counting that last Pittsburgh game, it went 7-2 with the two losses coming on last second field goals. The Ravens are ranked No. 1 in total DVOA including No. 1 in Defensive DVOA which puts the Chiefs in a bad matchup. Kansas City snuck out of Buffalo with a win thanks to a last second field goal and the Chiefs are now entering their sixth straight AFC Championship but arguably this is the weakest of the six teams. They outscored opponents by just over five ppg and did not face nearly the same gauntlet that Baltimore did. The Chiefs are 3-4 against playoff teams and played only nine games against teams with a winning record including just three on the road with the two wins coming at Jacksonville and Buffalo while losing to Green Bay. The lone hesitation here is going against Patrick Mahomes who is now 8-3 as an underdog but this is the first instance of a game against a team this stacked and in a situation like this. 10* (320) Baltimore Ravens

This is a play on the BUFFALO BILLS for our NFL Divisional Game of the Year. Buffalo jumped on Pittsburgh early and coasted the rest of the way, playing a fairly conservative game in the win and cover. Buffalo struggled through the first half of the season and began 6-6 and many counted the Bills out at that point but they are peaking at the right time as they have won six straight games and finally get the Chiefs at home with the previous five meetings taking place in Kansas City even though Buffalo was able to win three of those. This is the best time to get Kansas City at home with this being the first true road playoff game for Patrick Mahomes after having his first 13 at home not counting the two Super Bowls and it is not an ideal time for this Chiefs offense that makes too many mistakes and has been the least efficient that we have seen in a while. The Bills defense suffered more injuries last week but they will get cornerback Rasul Douglas back who was held back last week even though he could have played. The Chiefs defense has carried this team all season as they are allowing 16.7 ppg but this is a Bills offense that will have answers and quarterback Josh Allen has thrived in these spots as he is 20-6-1 ATS in his career against teams that allowed fewer than 20 ppg. This line opened at 2.5 -115 and the juice has gone up slightly but the number has not hit 3 although that will likely happen once public money comes into play so best to get on it sooner rather than later. Here, we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games. This situation is 66-31 ATS (68 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (318) Buffalo Bills

This is a play on the DETROIT LIONS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. Detroit picked up a very emotional win last week over the Rams and while there is talk about the Lions coming in flat, this is not going to happen in a Divisional Playoff game. The Lions did enough on offense in the first half to sneak out the win against one of the best teams over the second half of the season and the Lions have a better matchup and remain at home where they are 7-2 with those two losses coming in games where they won the yardage battle in both but lost the turnover battle 3-0 in each game. The one concern is the Detroit defense that has regressed throughout the season and it has been lit up through the air over its last four games, allowing 323 or more yards in each one. However, that has not led to much scoring as the Lions have allowed an average of 21.8 ppg and this has been a significant improvement after giving up 26 or more points in their previous five games with an average of 29.8 ppg. Tampa Bay is ranked No. 20 in offensive DVOA and while it put up 32 points against the eagles last week, that defense did not show up and the Buccaneers put up 22 points in their previous two games against the Saints and Panthers. Tampa Bay played a soft schedule in the worst division in the league and it went 1-3 against the top ten in the NFL with the only win coming against Green Bay which was the only win on the road against a playoff team. Here, we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage between .455 and .550 off a win by 14 points or more as an underdog. This situation is 25-6 ATS (80.6 percent) since 1983. 10* (316) Detroit Lions

This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS for our NFL Star Attraction. This is the classic rest vs. rust argument as San Francisco is coming off its first round bye while sitting starters in its season finale against the Rams. The 49ers should be just fine as most important, they are as healthy as they have been all season and time off for an offense that is No. 1 in net DVOA and a defense that is No. 4 in net DVOA is not going to be affected. San Francisco ranked higher than Green Bay in seven of the eight major statistical categories with the only exception being passing yards allowed and that was minimal. While this is a big number, the last 10 San Francisco wins have come by at least 12 points. Green Bay came through for us last week in Dallas as it jumped ahead big early in the game and never looked back in the wire-to-wire win over the Cowboys. The Packers are playing their best football of the season but had a great matchup last week which is not the case this week. Quarterback Jordan Love continues to bring it as he is coming off another efficient performance with a 157.2 passer rating but faces a better equipped defense this week. The Packers have averaged 28 ppg over their last nine games so they come in confident and with momentum and they had the edge of getting out to that big start last week. on the other side, this is still the eighth worst defense in the league and Dallas failed to make adjustments yet the Green Bay defense was on the field for 89 snaps. Here, we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage between .455 and .550 off a win by 14 points or more as an underdog. This situation is 25-6 ATS (80.6 percent) since 1983. 10* (304) San Francisco 49ers

This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES for our NFL Monday Primetime Dominator. Philadelphia endured a horrible ending to the season as it lost two straight and five of its final six games and no one wants a part of this team heading into the postseason. That being said, the Eagles arguably have the best Wild Card matchup of any team with a lower seed and there are the other doubters that want no part of the Buccaneers that come limping into the postseason as well. It was a weird freefall for a team that started 10-1 and had the NFC East in its grasp but they were unable to capitalize as it started a second half stretch with games against Dallas, Kansas City, Buffalo, San Francisco and Dallas is tough for any team to not only succeed but to recover after and Philadelphia could not do the latter. The Eagles defense fell apart and now sits No. 29 in DVOA but face the second lowest ranked offensive DVOA team in Tampa Bay which is only ahead of Cleveland as the Buccaneers are ranked No. 20 so taking advantage of the Eagles defense will not come easy. The Buccaneers were a flawed team this season, but they won the NFC South and they did it with a winning record but played in the worse division in the NFL. Tampa Bay went 4-2 in its own division and overall, played the No. 25 ranked schedule and while it has success against the lower rated teams with a 9-4 record against teams outside the top ten, it went 0-4 against the top ten teams. The Eagles may not be playing like one now, but that is where they still are. The Eagles offense will be facing a middle of the road defense as Tampa Bay in No. 14 in DVOA but the biggest factor they are dealing with are injuries but some are precautionary and the injuries to Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown are not serious enough to keep them out. 10* (151) Philadelphia Eagles

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES RAMS for our NFL Wild Card Game of the Year. Early money has come in on Detroit but we did not seen a line move early but the juice indicated it was coming and eventually did Monday afternoon. We knew this line had to get at least to 3.5 with the Lions being a public team all season and yet this is a bad spot for the home team. Detroit was still in the running for the No. 2 seed up until the final week but needed both the Eagles and Cowboys to lose and because that did not happen, the Lions get a bad matchup in the Wild Card opener. After opening the season 8-2, Detroit went 4-3 down the stretch although that did include the controversial loss against Dallas and now it enters the playoffs with the possibility of not having tight end Sam LaPorta available. The Detroit offense is still very good but will have to rely on Jared Goff more than it would like to as the Rams have had a top 10 defense in DVOA over the second half of the season especially against the run and the interior can slow down Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. Offensively, the Rams are the No. 2 offense in DVOA in the second half of the season behind only the 49ers and have been No. 1 in EPA since their bye week after Week 9. They have gone 7-1 since then with the lone loss coming in Baltimore in overtime while averaging 31.3 ppg not counting Week 18 when the starters were out. Detroit has a defense ranked No. 13 in DVOA and regressed in the second half, especially against the pass. Over the last 20 years, home teams that did not make the playoffs last season are 13-39 ATS (31 percent). Additionally, we play against home teams averaging 385 or more total ypg, after allowing 400 or more total ypg in their last three games. This situation is 26-6 ATS (81.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (149) Los Angeles Rams

This is a play on the GREEN BAY PACKERS for our NFL Star Attraction. Green Bay made a late run to grab the final seed in the NFC playoffs while clinching the spot against the Bears in Week 18. After a 2-5 start with things looking bleak, the Packers have won seven of their last 10 games with quarterback Jordan Love completely turning his season around. Against the Bears, he put up a passer rating of 128.6, which was the fourth straight game he has tallied a rating over 109 and he now has 10 games where he has eclipsed the 100 passer rating. Seven of these have been over the last eight games after doing so just three times in his first nine starts. Green Bay have improved to No. 6 in offensive DVOA and moved into the top 10 in Non-Adjusted Total DVOA. Dallas has good metrics on defense but have a tough matchup here. The Cowboys apply significant pressure on the quarterback which is bad for some teams but Green Bay has a great offensive line that is ranked No. 2 in Pass Block Win Rate and No. 5 in Adjusted Sack Rate. Defensively is where the Packers struggle as they have the second lowest DVOA of all playoff teams with some bad games in the mix but in 17 games, they have allowed fewer than 24 points 11 times. We all know that the Dallas offense has been great at home and it will no doubt move the ball but we know Green Bay can keep up and the line is reflecting the potent Dallas defense and based on the actual numbers, it is too big of a line in the postseason against a team playing very well. Here, we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after allowing 5.5 or less passing ypa last game going up against an opponent after gaining seven or more passing ypa in two straight games. This situation is 35-11 ATS (76.1 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (147) Green Bay Packers

This is a play on the HOUSTON TEXANS for our NFL Saturday Enforcer. Houston won three of its final four games and coupled with the Jacksonville implosion, the Texans won the AFC South. Their only loss over that stretch was against the Browns but that was without C.J. Stroud playing at quarterback and with a defense not close to full strength so we can toss out that matchup. Excluding Week 18, the Browns have allowed 29.4 ppg on the road compared to allowing 13.9 ppg at home so their overall DVOA of No. 2 defensively is skewed as it is No. 1 at home but a mere No. 23 on the road. And that includes the game against the Stroud-less Texans which was their best road game of the season on defense, allowing 250 yards. While the Houston offense was not at full strength, the defense was not healthy either. Houston allowed just over 20 ppg at home and while included in that was the 36 points allowed to the Browns, the defense was not close to 100 percent. This was the game where Amari Cooper went off for a franchise-record 265 receiving yards but he faced off against backup cornerback D'Angelo Ross while defensive end Will Anderson, Jr. and several other players on defense were out. Veteran quarterback Joe Flacco has been a great story for the Browns and he has playoff experience which is considered an edge over Stroud but the latter has not played like the typical rookie and he has the benefit of playing this game at home which takes a lot of pressure off. Here, we play against road teams in the second half of the season with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games, playing a team with a winning percentage between .501 and .600. This situation is 23-4 ATS (85.2 percent) since 1983. 10* (142) Houston Texans

This is a play on the GREEN BAY PACKERS for our NFL Game of the Year. Green Bay and Minnesota caught a break last week with Seattle losing to the Steelers meaning either team would make the playoffs by winning their final two games and it was the Packers who got the job done in Minnesota with a dominating 33-10 win. After a 2-5 start with things looking bleak, Green Bay has won six of its last nine games with quarterback Jordan Love completely turning his season around. Against the Bears, he put up a passer rating of 125.3, which was the third straight game he has tallied a rating over 109 and he now has nine games where he has eclipsed the 100 passer rating. Six of these have been over the last seven games after doing so just three times in his first nine starts. Green Bay have improved to No. 9 in offensive DVOA. Recent experience is going to help the Packers here as last season, they had an identical 8-8 record with a game against a divisional foe at Lambeau Field to earn a playoff berth but lost to the Lions 20-16. Chicago has turned its season around as well which has likely saved Matt Eberflus his job. The Bears have won five of their last seven games but four of those have been at home with the lone road win over this stretch being an ugly 12-10 victory at Minnesota. Chicago has done it with a vastly improved defense and while it did shut down Jared Goff and a potent Lions offense, of their other six wins this season, all have come against offenses ranked No. 22 or worse in offensive DVOA. Quarterback Justin Fields has been better since returning from injury but has only one game with a passer rating over 100 in the six starts since coming back. Green Bay has only five turnovers in its last seven games which negates the Bears defense that has 18 takeaways over their last six games. 10* (464) Green Bay Packers

This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES for our NFL Supreme Annihilator. After opening the season 10-1 and having the inside track for the No. 1 seed in the NFC, the Eagles have lost four of their last five games and are now on pace for the No. 5 seed. They are coming off an awful loss against the Cardinals and now have to win and hope the Cowboys get upset at Washington with win the NFC East with the latter looking unlikely. The main focus now is playing a complete game heading into the playoffs no matter where they end up and that starts with the defense that has slid down to No. 27 in defensive DVOA. Whie they let a bad Cardinals offense do what they wanted, Philadelphia has a better matchup here to get right. The Eagles have failed to cover their last five games and are getting value here. In the meeting with the Giants on Christmas, they were favored by two touchdowns and we are now seeing an eight or more point line swing with no one wanting any part of them right now. The Giants put up a solid effort against the Rams as they had a chance to win but missed a last second field goal to make it three straight losses following a three-game winning streak. New York has covered its last two games and five of its last six after a 2-7-1 ATS start so the markets have tried to adjust and with an overadjustment here. The Giants have benefitted from 17 takeaways over this recent six-game stretch which has created favorable situations but that cannot be banked on here. New York remains No. 30 in offensive DVOA and have failed to reach 300 yards in eight of their last nine games. Here, we play on road teams in the second half of the season with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 off an upset loss as a home favorite. This situation is 33-9 ATS (78.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (459) Philadelphia Eagles

This is a play on the LAS VEGAS RAIDERS for our NFL Rivalry Rout. With Indianapolis, Houston and Pittsburgh all winning last week, Denver has been officially eliminated from playoff contention. We won with the Broncos last week but we expected a better effort on offense which was not the case as they tied for their second lowest scoring output of the season. Jarrett Stidham made his first start over Russell Wilson and he was not much better but he was far from awful and considering the players were likely playing harder because they knew they had a different quarterback, regression likely happens in the second game. Overall, Denver is ranked a respectable No. 18 in offensive DVOA but unlike last week facing a No. 29 ranked defense, the Raiders are ranked No. 11 in defensive DVOA, the Raiders are ranked No. 11. As for their own defense, the Broncos are No. 30 despite a solid effort against the Chargers. Las Vegas was also eliminated for a playoff berth after losing to Indianapolis but we feel there is to play for on this side. The Raiders have played well and seem to care a lot more since interim head coach Antonio Pierce took over and he is still coaching for a possibility to take over full time next year and players have been vocal about keeping him. The offense was good under Quarterback Aidan O'Connell who targeted wide receiver Davante Adams 21 times against the Colts, catching 13 of those passes for 126 yards and two touchdowns with O'Connell passing for 299 yards. The running game has been a bright spot as since moving into the lineup, Zamir White has 285 yards on 59 carries (4.6 ypc) the last three weeks. The Broncos are ranked No. 31 in rushing defense at 137.6 ypg while the pass rush is mostly nonexistent so Las Vegas can excel again while laying a short price at home. 10* (476) Las Vegas Raiders

This is a play on the TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. Tampa Bay had momentum and a favorable schedule on its side but came up small last week in its regular season home finale, losing to New Orleans by 10 points which forces it to win this week to win the division. The Buccaneers lost the turnover battle 4-0 which helped put an end to its four-game winning streak with Baker Mayfield having an efficient game but he tossed two interceptions in there, the most he has thrown this season. Despite early money coming in on Tampa Bay, the number has gone down slightly and anything under a touchdown is well within play for what is on the line, the opponent and the situation. While the Buccaneers are 4-4 on the road, two of those losses were in Buffalo and San Francisco while the other two were against playoff bound Houston or Indianapolis. Carolina was shutout at Jacksonville after scoring a season high 30 points the previous week against Green Bay and the latter was the aberration as the Panthers have failed to reach 20 points in 12 of their 16 games. They are ahead of only the Jets in defensive DVOA and they have averaged just 14.8 ppg which is nearly a touchdown less than their opponents defensive average. Quarterback Bryce Young showed signs of life against the Packers, which have a defensive DVOA of No. 28, but he regressed against the Jaguars which was more in line for his entire rookie season. The defense has performed better than the offense but not by much and Carolina brings in zero home field advantage with its severely inflated attendance numbers. Here, we play on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points off an upset loss as a home favorite going up against an opponent off a road loss. This situation is 37-10 ATS (78.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (479) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is a play on the HOUSTON TEXANS for our NFL Saturday Primetime Dominator. The playoffs are on the line and the winner of this game not only guarantees a playoff spot but also keeps the AFC South title within reach with some help from Jacksonville. Houston shook off a loss against Cleveland as it easily took out Tennessee and had its 13th game of the season with one or fewer turnovers and that will be a factor here. The Texans welcomed back quarterback C.J. Stroud who missed two games with a concussion and he did not miss a beat, completing 75 percent of his passes, his highest of the season, for 213 yards and a touchdown and while he did not throw for a lot of yards, he did not have to as the Texans built a big lead. Houston is ranked No. 12 in net DVOA which is seven spots higher than Indianapolis and despite having a rookie quarterback, they have the edge at quarterback. The Colts have played better over the second half of the season as they have won six of their last eight games to get into this position. They have won three straight games at home and laying a short price which is going to make them a public play come later in the week. The offense has been up and down with Gardner Minshew, as since taking over as the full time starter, he has four games with a passer rating of 100 or better but also has five games with a rating of 76 or lower. One consistency has been the defense as they are No. 27 in points allowed at 24.5 ppg and gets even worse at home where they give up 25.8 ppg and 358 ypg. The Colts won the first meeting despite getting outgained but the Texans were just 1-4 inside the redzone in what was just the second game of the season for Stroud and he has clearly progressed since then. 10* (469) Houston Texans

This is a play on the DENVER BRONCOS for our Divisional Game of the Month. It took 15 games, but the Broncos finally benched Russell Wilson with the writing being on the wall for quite some time. Since a five-game winning streak, the Broncos have lost three of their last four games including a bad loss at home last week against the Patriots as a touchdown favorite with Wilson coming off his ninth sub-200 yard passing game. It will now be Jarrett Stidham taking over the offense and because of the switch at quarterback, we have seen the line drop around two points or more from the opener. This is a great spot for Stidham to fall into as there is little film for the Chargers to look at and he faces a Chargers pass defense that has allowed the third-highest quarterback rating in the league this season at 99.1. Los Angeles is coming off a hard fought loss against the Bills two points on a last second field goal which was the first game for interim head coach Giff Smith and it was the classic game of a team getting up for the new coach in his first game taking over. It has been a rough season for the Chargers and it was the end for head coach Brandon Staley and general manager Tom Telesco after they gave up 63 points in a loss to the Raiders. Los Angeles has been the underdog in six games this season, and it has failed to win any of those contests. Here, we play against teams with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games. This situation is 50-22 ATS (69.4 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (130) Denver Broncos

This is a play on the CHICAGO BEARS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. Chicago is coming off a win last week against Arizona for its fourth win over the last six games with both losses that could have gone the other way and it is still not yet eliminated from playoff contention albeit a slim chance. This is the final home game of the season for Chicago where it has won four straight games with the two losses prior to those coming by a combined nine points. Since Week 10, the Bears have allowed the fifth-fewest points, second-lowest passer rating and fourth-fewest rushing yards which is a recipe for disaster for the Falcons that have struggled away from home. The Falcons are coming off a season-high 29 points against the Colts where they have scored 28, 24, 25 and 29 points and even despite that output, they have scored the ninth-fewest points in the NFL this season. The reason is Atlanta has been awful away from home as it is averaging fewer than 14 ppg where it is 2-5 including losses against Carolina, Tennessee and Arizona and one win coming against the lowly Jets. The Falcons defense has been what have kept games competitive as they have allowed the eighth-fewest yards passing per game and eighth-lowest completion percentage which may surprise many but this has come against the easiest schedule in the NFL. Here, we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games. This situation is 65-31 ATS (67.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (110) Chicago Bears

This is a play on the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS for our NFL Supreme Annihilator. First off, coaching matters in this league and Antonio Pierce has come closer to winning the job in Las Vegas after being hired on October 31 as the interim head coach as he has gone 4-3 including a win last week in Kansas City as an 11-point underdog. This is the ultimate letdown spot based on that though and this also comes after a 63-21 win over the Chargers which ultimately led to the firing of Brandon Staley. The Raiders have won the turnover battle over the last two games as they were outgained last week and won the yardage battle against the Chargers by just 52 yards despite the 42-point win. In the game against the Chiefs last week, quarterback Aiden O'Connell was 0-10 over the final three quarters and comes into another tough environment. The Colts are coming off a bad loss at Atlanta which is their second loss over the last three games but both of those were on the road. This is just the third home game for the Colts since the end of October and they close out the season with the final two games at home which is a good situation to keep their playoff hopes alive. Indianapolis is currently in the No. 7 spot, one of four teams at 8-7 with one of those being Houston which comes to town in the season finale. The Colts will get Michael Pittman Jr. back after missing last week. Here, we play against teams off an upset win as a double digit underdog, with a winning percentage between .450 and .550. This situation is 21-4 ATS (84 percent) since 1983. 10* (114) Indianapolis Colts

This is a play on the ARIZONA CARDINALS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. Arizona lost to Chicago by 11 points and it remains on the road where it is 1-7. Six of those losses have come against teams that are either in the playoffs or still are not eliminated and the five games they have not covered are all against the aforementioned playoff teams. The return of Kyler Murray has improved the offense, scoring 24 points or more in three of his six starts after scoring 24 or more points only three times in the first nine games without him and he is coming off his best passer rating of his six starts. We are seeing a reverse line move here with 94 percent of the money coming in on the Cardinals but the number has gone up. Overall, Arizona has played the No. 1 ranked schedule in the NFL. The Eagles snapped a three-game losing streak with a win over the Giants last Saturday but it was still not a pretty victory. Of their 11 wins, eight have come by just one possession including five of the six at home. Philadelphia has failed to cover each of its last four games and that would normally make it a play on team but this is not a number to be laying. The Eagles regained the lead in the NFC East by one game over Dallas and still have an outside chance of the overall top seed in the conference but will need to win out and have the 49ers lose their final two games as San Francsico owns the head-to-head and conference record tiebreakers. Here, we play on road teams after failing to cover the spread in three out of their last four games, in December games. This situation is 94-44 ATS (68.1 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (119) Arizona Cardinals

This is a play on the DALLAS COWBOYS for our NFL Saturday Primetime Dominator. This has turned into a big game for Dallas to have any shot at the NFC East following a pair of road losses at Buffalo and Miami as it is now 10-5, trailing the Eagles by one game. The bad news is that Philadelphia is closing with the Cardinals and Giants so the division seems unlikely but it is mostly about momentum right now. The Cowboys are locked into the No. 5 seed as they cannot drop down based on head-to-head wins over the Rams and Seahawks and one of the best parts about this spot is that it is a Saturday game meaning they do not know about the Eagles outcome so they will be out to win and win big. Despite where it is in the standings, Dallas is one of only four teams in the league that is ranked in the top ten in both offensive and defensive DVOA and a return home is just what it needs at this point. Everyone is aware of the cowboys struggles against winning teams but this is the spot to that that reversed. While it is a get right spot for the Cowboys, this is an awful spot for the Lions which are coming off a win over the Vikings which got them their first division title in 30 years. The locker room afterwords told the story and this is a tough situation to keep it going. Detroit is tied with the 49ers and Eagles with an 11-4 record but it is behind both teams in the two tiebreakers based on conference record and strength of victory and the way the schedule sets up, those two teams are not going to lose. Dallas has covered six straight games following a loss by six points or less, winning those games by an average of 19 ppg. 10* (104) Dallas Cowboys

This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our NFL Thursday Primetime Dominator. Cleveland has won three straight games and is one win away from clinching a playoff spot and the situation could not be better. The Browns are 7-1 at home and got the extra home game on their schedule with this being their final home game of the season unless they can catch a lower seed after the first round in the playoffs. Cleveland has been dominant at home where it is 7-1, the lone loss coming against Baltimore in Week Four. The defense has led the charge as the Browns are allowing only 11.8 ppg and 198 ypg on a paltry 3.7 yppl and face one of the worst offenses in the league. The Browns remain No. 1 in overall defensive DVOA and face off against the No. 32 offensive DVOA in the league. The offense has gone through four different starting quarterbacks but they have found their guy as Joe Flacco has rejuvenated the offense as he has thrown for 326.8 ypg in his four starts with 10 touchdowns and he just needs to cut down on the picks. The Jets defense will be a challenge as they are No. 3 in DVOA but like Cleveland, they are better at home than on the road. New York has definitely slowed down as after allowing more than 27 points only once in its first nine games, it has given up 28 or more points in four of their last six games. Offensively, they are coming off a solid game against Washington but this is a different test after their last home game with New England on deck. 10* (102) Cleveland Browns

This is a play on the BALTIMORE RAVENS for our NFL Monday Game of the Year. San Francisco is rolling along with six straight wins, all by double digits, and this is a perfect sell high opportunity. The 49ers have defeated five potential playoff teams over this stretch (Seattle twice) but four of those are going the wrong way, Philadelphia, Seattle and Jacksonville, with the other coming against Tampa Bay which is right at .500. San Francisco has overtaken the No. 1 seed in the NFC with outright wins over the Eagles and Cowboys so it is in great position to keep that, even with a loss here, as the remaining schedule is in its favor. Because of the recent run, this line has risen and is not a true indicator of the differential between these two teams. The 49ers are No. 1 in the NFL in Net DVOA and Net EPA but Baltimore is right there. The Ravens are No. 2 in Net DVOA and tied for No. 2 in Net EPA as they bring in an identical 11-3 record and sit atop the AFC, one game ahead of Miami with a game at home against the Dolphins next week. Baltimore has won four straight games and eight of its last nine games with the only blemish coming against Cleveland where it blew a 31-17 lead in the fourth quarter and lost on a last second field goal. While San Francisco is the only team in the NFC with a DVOA in the top five in both offense and defense and the Ravens are the only team in the AFC to stake that claim as well. Quarterback Lamar Jackson is 11-2 ATS as an underdog in his career so these have been the spots he has thrived in. Here, we play against favorites averaging 385 or more total ypg, after gaining 450 or more total ypg over their last three games. This situation is 30-8 ATS (78.9 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (481) Baltimore Ravens

This is a play on the ARIZONA CARDINALS for our Underdog Game of the Month. Chicago nearly won its third straight game but could not secure a Hail Mary to end the game against Cleveland as it blew a 17-7 lead going into the fourth quarter. The recent success in addition to three straight losses by one possession is overvaluing the Bears as they are favored for only the third time this season and by their biggest amount. The defense has improved dramatically over the second half of the season but will be facing their first mobile quarterback since playing Kansas City in Week Three. Chicago is still No. 24 in offensive DVOA as Justin Fields has been adequate but has regressed over the last four games. They are in a bad spot coming off that disheartening loss and the Bears have played down to the opposition going back to last season as they are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games against teams with a losing record. Arizona lost to San Francisco by 16 points and it hits the road where it is 1-6. Five of those losses have come against teams that are either in or still alive in the playoffs and the four games they have not covered are all against the aforementioned playoff teams. The return of Kyler Murray has improved the offense, scoring 24 points or more in three of his five starts after scoring 24 or more points only three times in the first nine games without him. He brings that added running dimension that can keep the Bears off balance and something they have not seen. Arizona is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points. 10* (473) Arizona Cardinals

This is a play on the ATLANTA FALCONS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. This is a big reverse line move as major money has come in on the Colts yet the line has risen from the opener of -1.5. The Falcons are coming off a bad loss against Carolina where they managed just one touchdown but that game was played in horrible weather and now they are back home in the dome. They are 4-3 at home with two of those losses coming by a combined seven points. Here, we have another game with a quarterback change as Taylor Heinicke will make his third start and he is far from a downgrade from Desmond Ridder. Expect to see more running this week after the Falcons has been held to fewer than 100 yards in each of their last three games and will be facing a bad Colts rushing defense. Atlanta is still in the running for first place in the NFC South as they trail Tampa Bay by one game and the remaining schedule is favorable but this is the big one as this is their final home game of the season. Indianapolis has been a pleasant surprise in the AFC as it is currently in a playoff spot at 7-7 as the Colts have won five of their last six games. Two of those wins were on the road but one was against Carolina and the other needed overtime against Tennessee. The Colts do not do anything particularly good with their offensive running game being the biggest strength and they have been a very fortunate team as they are No. 6 in the Luck Rankings with the biggest factor being 5-2 in one possession games. 10* (458) Atlanta Falcons

This is a play on the TENNESSEE TITANS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. Seattle kept its playoff hopes alive with a win on Monday night against the Eagles in the final minute to move to 7-7. The victory snapped a four-game losing streak for the Seahawks which have now covered three straight games and that gives us value as this number has gone up from the opener of -1.5. Give credit to Drew Lock for the winning drive against Philadelphia and he has played two solid games replacing Geno Smith but the latter is expected back and that is not a real big advantage. The Seahawks have regressed in their offense overall and especially in the running game as they got to 100 yards last week for the first time in five games and hitting the road is an issue as Seattle is 0-5 in its last five road games. Tennessee has had a rough season as it is now 5-9 following an overtime loss against Houston and Case Keenum and that was its fourth loss by four points or less. The Titans were coming off a couple of solid games offensively against Indianapolis and Miami but could not do much last week after jumping out to a 13-0 lead. This week, Ryan Tannehill could over at quarterback for Will Levis who has an injured ankle and even though he lost his job, he is one of the better backups in the league. There will be no quit for this team with head coach Mike Vrabel and he has been one of the best coaches in these spots. 10* (464) Tennessee Titans

This is a play on the PITTSBURGH STEELERS for our NFL Saturday Enforcer. Despite three straight losses, Pittsburgh is not dead yet as it is 7-7, tied with Denver for tenth place in the AFC and just a game out of sixth place but there are a few teams it has to leapfrog. The schedule is not great with the final two games of the season at Seattle and at Baltimore making this their final home game of the season. There is talk of head coach Mike Tomlin sitting on the hot seat which is pretty laughable considering what he has had to deal with at the quarterback position and another change is in store this week with Mason Rudolph getting the start. He has seen limited action the last three seasons but it can be an edge with limited film. The Bengals were left for dead when Joe Burrow was lost for the season but behind Jake Browning, they have won three straight games after losing his first start against the Steelers. Cincinnati is now 8-6 and in position to get into the playoffs but like Pittsburgh, the schedule is not on its side with a game at Kansas city on deck and then the season finale at home against Cleveland. The recent runs have seen a complete line shift from that first meeting as the Bengals go from a home underdog against Pittsburgh to a road favorite against the same team. Here, we play on teams where the line is +3 to -3 after three or more consecutive losses against the spread going up against an opponent after two or more consecutive wins against the spread. This situation is 37-13 ATS (74 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (454) Pittsburgh Steelers

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES RAMS for our NFL Thursday Game of the Year. The Rams are peaking at the right time, coming off a win over Commanders to make it four wins in their last five games to get to 7-7 and this is a crucial game where they can gain a tiebreaker over the 7-7 Saints. One key factor is the health of Los Angeles on the offensive side and it is humming along right now. The Rams have moved to No. 7 in offensive DVOA against a schedule ranked No. 7 and they are the highest ranked 7-7 team in the league. One huge key for the offense is a running game that has come to life the last four games behind Kyren Williams. While going 1-4 against the top ten and all losses against Super Bowl contenders, they are 6-3 against the rest of the league and this is their final home game of the season with games remaining against the Giants and 49ers. The Saints have played the easiest schedule in the league and backing that up is the fact they have been favored in 12 of their 14 games. New Orleans lost and failed to cover both games as an underdog and have actually been the unluckiest team in the NFL which is to their credit as its 7-7 record has played out with what should be a 9-5 record as it has won by 18, 22, 11 and 34 points this season, but it is just 3-5 in one-score games. But this is where the strength of schedule needs to be factored in as three of those lopsided wins were against the Patriots, Panthers and Giants which are a combined 10-32. The offense continues to struggle with a net DVOA ranking of No. 20 with a pretty non-existent running game and while Derek Carr is coming off his best passer rating game of the season, he is not the same on the road. 10* (452) Los Angeles Rams

This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES for our NFL Monday Primetime Dominator. Both Philadelphia and Seattle are leaking some oil and the Eagles are in the spot to turn it around. They have lost two straight games in blowouts against San Francisco and Dallas which came after a pair of close wins over Kansas City and Buffalo so the schedule has been brutal. It eases up starting this week and they control their own destiny in the NFC East with their remaining games against the Giants twice and the Cardinals so of they win out, they will have the better conference record than Dallas. Despite the recent struggles, Philadelphia remains No. 8 in net DVOA and just as important, it is No. 2 in special teams DVOA. What has really hurt the Eagles of late has been their rushing defense but Seattle has done nothing on the ground as it has rushed for fewer than 90 yards in eight of 13 games and it is No. 15 in the league in rushing EPA. The Seahawks have lost four straight games to fall a game under .500 and the playoff prospects are getting bleaker so this is a needed win but it is not a good matchup. The Seattle defense has struggled all season and especially against above average offenses with the three best games coming very early in the season and the Seahawks have dropped to No. 26 in defensive DVOA. They were without quarterback Geno Smith last week against San Francisco and while he returns this week, he has struggled this season with an 89.1 passer rating after posting a 100.9 rating last season. Despite the big majority of money being on the Eagles, we have seen this line come down. 10* (327) Philadelphia Eagles

This is a play on the JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS for our NFL Sunday Primetime Dominator. Unfortunately we have seen this number come down as it opened at 5.5 and was hit hard early but Jacksonville is still catching a hook over a key number and with the majority of money on Baltimore despite the early line move, we should not see this number go anywhere and up if it does move. The Jaguars were looking good in the AFC South following a win over Houston but they have lost two straight games against teams from the AFC North and have seen their lead remain at one game thanks to the Texans loss against the Jets last week. Jacksonville has only dropped one spot to No. 10 in net DVOA with the defense still leading the way at No. 8 despite the last two below average games. Baltimore now has the upper hand in the AFC thanks to the Miami loss on Monday night against Tennessee as it has a one game lead for the No. 1 seed with a huge game against the Dolphins on New Years Eve. The Ravens are coming off a fortunate win over the Rams in overtime on a punt return for a touchdown to move to 10-3 including a three-game winning streak. They are the most complete team in the AFC and are favorites here for a reason but the spot does not set up well with this being just their second road game since the end of October. Here, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points outgaining their opponents by 50 or more ypg, after gaining 400 or more total ypg over their last three games. This situation is 91-46 ATS (66.4 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (330) Jacksonville Jaguars

This is a play on the WASHINGTON COMMANDERS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. The Rams are coming off an excruciating loss at Baltimore last week, losing in overtime on a punt return for a touchdown and the game atmosphere and situation does not make it any easier. Los Angeles played one of its most physical games of the season in horrible conditions which will be tough to recover from despite a return home where it does not have a significant advantage. The Rams had their three-game winning snapped with the loss and they are going to be one of, if not the biggest, public play on the entire card. They should score but their No. 23 defensive DVOA is a big concern when laying a large number. Washington is coming off its bye week following four straight losses where it was unable to generate a single takeaway and lost the turnover battle 9-0 in those games. Those are the fluky things that have killed the Commanders as in their nine losses, they are on the wrong side of and 18-5 turnover ratio. The Rams have generated only 11 takeaways and Washington needs to rely on taking care of the ball. While they are 0-5 against the top 10 in the league, the Commanders are 4-4 against everyone else and are catching too big of a number here. Here, we play against home teams with a winning percentage between .400 and .499 after three or more consecutive wins against the spread, playing a losing team. This situation is 39-12 ATS (76.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (323) Washington Commanders

This is a play on the TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. Green Bay was on a roll as it had won three straight games prior to Monday night where it lost to the Giants which took a hit on its playoff hopes. The Packers are now tied with four other teams at 6-7 and currently hold down the No. 7 spot as they own most tiebreakers but this is a week-to-week change. They head home where they have won three straight games including a big win over Kansas City in the most recent game and last week, turnovers finally caught up at -3. In their three wins, they are +6 in margin and Tampa Bay does not turn it over as it is No. 7 in giveaways. Tampa Bay is in a three-way tie for first place with Atlanta and New Orleans thanks to two consecutive wins and like Green Bay, it has the tiebreakers currently in its favor and this one will go a long way. The Buccaneers have ramped up the running game over the last three games, averaging 133.7 ypg on 4.8 ypc and this could be big based on the weather forecast where wind could play a factor making the running game an integral part. The Packers rushing defense was exposed again last week and have allowed 170.4 ypg over their last five games and are ranked No. 25 in defensive rushing DVOA. Here, we play against home teams after covering the spread in three out of their last four games, in a game involving two teams with winning percentages between .400 and .499. This situation is 27-5 ATS (84.4 percent) since 1983. 10* (313) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is a play on the HOUSTON TEXANS for our Divisional Game of the Month. We have seen a complete line flip in this game with Houston opening as the favorite prior to the games last week and now the Texans are underdogs based on the results along with the status of quarterback C.J. Stroud. Stroud was ruled out on Saturday and Davis Mills is a capable backup with plenty of experience in a get right spot and an opposition play against. The Texans have dropped two of their last three games and are sitting in the No. 8 spot in the AFC based on conference record, tied with six teams at 7-6 for the final two spots. Three of their last four games are in the division and all four in the AFC so they can feasibly run the table. Tennessee is coming off an improbable win on Monday night against Miami, trailing by 14 points with 2:40 remaining but scored the final 15 points for the upset. The Titans have won two of their last three games and have gone 0-4 in their first four games following a win and this is a big letdown spot despite a return home in a divisional game. Quarterback Will Levis led the comeback and while some are calling it his coming out party, he was not playing well prior to that. Despite the victory, Tennessee dropped to No. 24 in net DVOA. Here, we play on underdogs or pickems in the second half of the season with a winning percentage between .501 and .600 off an upset loss as a road favorite. This situation is 31-9 ATS (77.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (315) Houston Texans

This is a play on the DETROIT LIONS for our NFL Saturday Primetime Dominator. Everyone is all of a sudden sour on Detroit as it has put up four straight poor games but somehow was able to come away 2-2 in those games. The Lions are coming off another game where turnovers were the story as those two losses over this stretch were the result of a -3 turnover margin. Detroit now closes the season with its final four games taking place in a dome and this is where it will get its momentum back and starting here in a great spot. The Lions remain No. 7 in the league in net DVOA despite the loss to Chicago which happened to be the first loss in seven games against teams ranked outside the top 16 and that is where Denver still resides. The Broncos are one of the hottest teams in the league as they have now won six of their last seven games and are now one of six teams looking for two playoff spots in the AFC. Denver was fortunate last week against the Chargers with Justin Herbert going down and that was its third win in the last three games going up against a backup quarterback. That has skewed the defensive numbers but the Broncos still come in ranked No. 30 in defensive DVOA. This is the wrong time to go to Detroit. Here, we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage between .450 and .550 off a win by 14 points or more as an underdog. This situation is 24-5 ATS (82.8 percent) since 1983. 10* (312) Detroit Lions

This is a play on the MINNESOTA VIKINGS for our NFL Saturday Enforcer. Minnesota is coming off an ugly 3-0 win over the Raiders Sunday and coupled with the Packers loss Monday, the Vikings leapfrogged Green Bay and are currently in the No. 6 spot in the NFC, one game ahead of five teams that are 6-7. The win snapped a two-game slide and this is the final non-division game remaining on the schedule and it is definitely a must win. The quarterback situation is unsettled but we will likely see Nick Mullins start this week who came in relief and led the game-winning drive. This is a very underrated defense for the Vikings as they are No. 5 in the NFL in defensive DVOA. Many thought the Bengals were done after quarterback Joe Burrow went down for the season but they are very much still alive for a playoff spot although the schedule does not set up well. Cincinnati is one of six teams tied at 7-6 which are vying for two playoff spots. Jake Browning has been the story as he has looked great in two games since taking over the starting job with passer ratings of 115.5 and 122.7 and we just do not think this is sustainable. On the other side, the Bengals are No. 26 in defensive DVOA which is a big boost for that Vikings offense. Here, we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in the second half of the season in a game involving two teams allowing between 18 and 23 ppg, after scoring and allowing 14 pts or less points. This situation is 33-9 ATS (78.6 percent) since 1983. 10* (303) Minnesota Vikings

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS for our NFL Thursday Primetime Dominator. The Chargers season is officially cooked after losing quarterback Justin Herbert to a right index finger fracture as they fell to 5-8 following a loss against Denver on Sunday. Ethan Stick came in on the fly and was not horrible and now he has at least had a few days of preparation for this game and we are seeing a seven-point swing from this early opener and that is just too much with what Herbert has done this season. Los Angeles will continue to rally especially in a divisional game and we will see a healthy dose of the running game as the Chargers had their second highest rushing output in the first meeting. One key factor is that Los Angeles is No. 1 in special teams DVOA which is often overlooked. The Raiders were involved in one of the ugliest games in recent memory as they were shutout against Minnesota on Sunday and it was the 11th time in 12 games they have scored 18 or fewer points. Quarterback Aiden O'Connell was coming off a good game against Kansas City but could muster nothing against Minnesota and it was his third game in his last four starts with a passer rating of 72 or less. Las Vegas is No. 29 in offensive DVOA and the running game is just as much to blame as it is No. 29 in rushing EPA. Here, we play on road teams after failing to cover the spread in three out of their last four games, in December games. This situation is 93-38 ATS (71 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (301) Los Angeles Chargers

This is a play on the MIAMI DOLPHINS for our NFL Monday Annihilator. Miami has won three straight games to claim the No. 1 seed in the AFC for the time being and we are going to lay the big number in the first of three straight home games for the Dolphins. They have feasted on bad teams as they are 7-0 straight up and ATS against teams with a losing record when facing them and going back, 13-4-1 ATS under head coach Mike McDaniel. Miami has improved to No. 4 in net DVOA including No. 2 in offense and have another great matchup here. Tennessee is coming off a brutal loss against Indianapolis in overtime as a missed extra point in regulation late in the fourth quarter could have won it although this has been a lost season to begin with. The Titans are 4-8 and have lost four of their last five games with the only win coming against 1-11 Carolina and it has been a struggle for rookie quarterback Will Levis. The good news for Tennessee is it should have Derrick Henry who has been in concussion protocol but he has been underutilized as he is averaging his fewest carries per game since 2018-19. Here, we play against underdogs of 10.5 or more points with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 after one or more consecutive losses, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 35-10 ATS (77.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons with the average point differential being 20 ppg. 10* (130) Miami Dolphins

This is a play on the NEW YORK GIANTS for our NFL Monday Primetime Dominator. Green Bay has turned the corner under quarterback Jordan Love as it has won three straight games to improve to 6-6 and get back into the playoff picture in the NFC. All three wins have been as an underdog and now the Packers go from that to a large road favorite as they are now a public darling as they are catching 94 percent of the early money. Green Bay has benefitted from a 5-0 turnover advantage during its winning streak and is coming off a huge win at home against Kansas City and this is only the second time all season it has been a favorite. The Giants have won two straight games as underdogs and they too have benefitted from turnovers with a 9-1 advantage over the two games so it can be said they too have been fortunate but they are not the team laying close to a touchdown. Quarterback Tommy DeVito has turned into a cult hero and while he is not the long term answer, he has managed games well with a passer rating of 137.7 and 103.9 over the last two games with a 4:0 TD:INT ratio. Coming off a bye, New York is in a great contrarian spot that favors underdogs in these situations against teams coming in on a significant winning streak. Here, we play against road favorites in a game involving two teams allowing between 335 and 370 ypg, after gaining 375 or more total yards in two consecutive games. This situation is 28-6 ATS (82.4 percent) since 1983. 10* (132) New York Giants

This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES for our NFL Divisional Game of the Year. We have seen this line go up since opening and it has crossed the key number of three which is big in a divisional game with similar opponents. The public is in love with the Cowboys which has caused the move as they have won four straight games, the first three in blowout fashion, but they struggled against Seattle last Thursday. Dallas does have the advantage of playing with some extra rest but that is not a big issue here, the issue is who they are playing. The Cowboys have rolled over the bad team that are not playoff contenders, with the Rams being a fringe contender, but they have struggled with the four teams that are in playoff position and now the schedule cranks up the next four weeks so we will see how good they really are. The Eagles were blown out at home last week against the 49ers but they were coming off three tough games against Dallas, Kansas City and Buffalo and while it does not get any easier here, last week was a wake up call and we get a line advantage because of that. Philadelphia has been one of the most lucky teams in the league and it has gotten away with some close calls but the numbers do not lie as the Eagles are No. 8 in net DVOA and while it has been a brutal stretch, they are pretty healthy once again. Quarterback Jalen Hurts has been gimping around but he will be fine and this could be the breakout after three straight below average games. 10* (127) Philadelphia Eagles

This is a play on the JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. Jacksonville suffered a big loss on Monday and an even bigger loss going forward with Trevor Lawrence leaving with an ankle injury. It does not sound overly serious and he has not completely been ruled out for Sunday as of Wednesday and while he likely will not go, the Jaguars, like what many teams do, will rally around him and C.J. Beathard and the rest of the team will give a big effort following that loss. Jacksonville but picking up steam on defense before last week but is still No. 6 in defensive DVOA and has a great matchup here. Cleveland has lost two straight games and while those were on the road and it has been a much better team at home, the offense has regressed. Even though it was never very good, the offense has averaged only 14.7 ppg over their last three games and they are getting more banged up. Quarterback Joe Flacco made his first start and while he threw for 254 yards, he completed only 52.3 percent of his passes and finished with a 75.4 rating. The defense remains great and is awesome at home but have been going the wrong way. Here, we play against home favorites averaging between 18 and 23 ppg and after two straight losses by 10 points or more going up against teams allowing between 18 and 23 ppg. This situation is 35-11 ATS (76.1 percent) since 1983. 10* (105) Jacksonville Jaguars

This is a play on the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS for our NFL Supreme Annihilator. Indianapolis is on a roll right now with four straight wins and with the injury to Trevor Lawrence, it is very much alive in the AFC South. The Colts are currently in the No. 7 spot in the AFC and tied with three other teams at 7-5 with a very manageable closing schedule. The offense has been sneaky good with Garnder Minshew at quarterback but a lot of that is due to the defense that has produced 20 takeaways this season and their 1.7 per game is tied for fifth in the NFL. Overall, that defense is No. 12 in DVOA and has a great matchup this week. Cincinnato is coming off a huge upset over Jacksonville on Monday night as quarterback Jake Browning looked like a veteran and he has been very serviceable in his two starts. But now, teams have film on him and can better scheme for him and he is due for a regression. The defense continues to struggle as the Bengals have allowed 30 points or more in three of their last four games and are currently No. 27 in defensive DVOA. Cincinnati is No. 13 in offensive DVOA but that can be attributed but that is when they caught fire in Week Five and had a sustainable run with Joe Burrow. Here, we play against teams off an upset win as a double digit underdog, with a winning percentage of between .450 and .550 on the season. This situation is 21-3 ATS (87.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (115) Indianapolis Colts

This is a play on the NEW YORK JETS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. The weather looks to be a big factor in many of the east coast games and this is certainly one of those as we have seen the total drop from 38.5 to 33 but the line has only come down a half point. There is rain and wind in the forecast and that is going cause the most problems for the Houston offense which likes to throw the ball downfield. Quarterback C.J. Stroud has had an incredible rookie season but could struggle in these conditions and he will be without one of his top receivers with Tank Bell going down for the rest of the season. While the offense could be limited, the defense has been average as the Texans are ranked No. 15 in DVOA. The Jets offense will certainly be limited as it has been all season and they have averaged only 9.0 ppg during their five-game losing streak. We are not too concerned about that as they are getting value based on their own struggles, especially going 0-5 ATS in their last five games, and the public love for Houston. The defense has kept them competitive in games mostly not against elite competition as New York is No. 3 in defensive DVOA. The quarterback situation has obviously been a mess but can only go up. Here, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in the second half of the season in a game involving two teams allowing between 18 and 23 ppg, after scoring and allowing 14 pts or less points. This situation is 38-13 ATS (74.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (118) New York Jets

This is a play on the NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS for our NFL Thursday Primetime Dominator. In what is expected to be a very low scoring game with a total sitting at 30, there is a lot of value in the significant underdog. The Steelers are 7-5 following a loss last week against Arizona so they are still very much alive in the AFC playoff race. However, they have been exposed on offense especially over the last three weeks as Pittsburgh has put up only 12 ppg which has lowered their average to 16 ppg. The Steelers are No. 25 in offensive EPA and now have to go with Mitch Trubisky at quarterback, even though Kenny Pickett was not doing much himself, and while he put up a high passer rating last week, he completed just 11 passes for 117 yards. The Patriots have had a rough season from the start with an even worse offense but to their credit, they continue to play hard, especially on defense as they have gotten healthier. They have allowed only 26 points over their last three games and have lost four straight one possession games to make it seven of 10 losses coming by a touchdown or less. New England is doing nothing on offense either but it will not take a great effort this week to keep this one close. Here, we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points outscored by five or more ppg in the first half, after scoring nine points or less in two straight games. This situation is 23-3 ATS (88.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (101) New England Patriots

This is a play on the JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS for our AFC Game of the Month. This would have been a marquee matchup a few weeks ago but the loss of Joe Burrow has taken the steam out of it and this line is now nine points higher than the early line that came out over the summer. Is Burrow worth nine points? The short answer is probably no but are more factors going into it. Cincinnati is coming off a loss against Pittsburgh by six points and while that seems like a close defeat, it was not. The Bengals were outgained 421-222 and it was the first time Pittsburgh gained over 400 yards of total offense in over three years which shows how bad this defense really is. Cincinnati is allowing 6.2 yppl which is the most in the league and a full yard more than last season and it has moved to No. 26 in defensive DVOA and No. 26 in defensive EPA. The Jaguars are coming off a pair of divisional wins to improve to 8-3 and the matchup could not be better here. The offense has been inconsistent all season and is ranked No. 17 in DVOA but now faces an awful defense so that is not an issue. The defense has been exceptional as the Jaguars are No. 5 in defensive DVOA and catches a break as they face Jake Browning who did not look horrible last week but did have some lucky breaks go his way. Jacksonville should dominate on this side as well. Here, we play against road teams with a pathetic allowing 6.0 or more yppl, after being outgained by 150 or more total yards in their previous game. This situation is 24-6 ATS (80 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (474) Jacksonville Jaguars

This is a play on the GREEN BAY PACKERS for our NFL Sunday Primetime Dominator. Kansas City finally got its offense going last week after falling behind 14-0 as the Chiefs put up 31 points which surprisingly is tied for its second highest output of the season. The Chiefs are now in a tough spot coming off that divisional win with a game against Buffalo on deck so it is a letdown lookahead situation. This offense managed 360 total yards which is still below their season average so saying that are back is not justified. Travis Kelce had a typical big game and they got a huge effort from rookie Rashee Rice for his best game of the season but this receiving corps is still underachieving. The Chiefs are No. 12 in the luck rankings so despite a recent 7-3 ATS run, it is a bit deceiving. Green Bay is coming off a Thanksgiving win over Detroit which was its second straight underdog win to improve to 5-6 on the season. The Packers have lost some tough games this season as four of their defeats have come by a total of 11 points. Quarterback Jordan Love has been playing a lot better and is obviously more comfortable after some midseason struggles and he has put up a passer rating of 108.5 or better in three of his last four game. Defensively, they have improved as well and are now No. 7 in pressure rate, No. 5 in quarterback knockdown percentage and No. 7 in hurry rate. Here, we play on underdogs or pickems in the second half of the season with a winning percentage between .400 and .499 off two or more consecutive upset wins as an underdog. This situation is 31-9 ATS (77.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (472) Green Bay Packers

This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS for our NFL Star Attraction. Philadelphia is coming off a pair of big wins as it got its revenge against the Chiefs and battled Buffalo to the end last week in an overtime win and it only gets tougher this week. The Eagles are 10-1 and a very fortunate 10-1 with seven of those 10 wins coming by just one possession including their last four games. In those recent games, Philadelphia was outgained in all four of those by 98, 114, 98 and 127 yards so it has not even been close so basically most everything has gone right. With an offense that has averaged only 320.5 ypg over this four-game run, they are catching the wrong team at the wrong time. The Eagles defense was on the field for over 40 minutes and 95 plays last week and now have a very physical test. San Francisco has won three straight games following a three-game losing streak where it was riddled with injuries. The 49ers are coming off a pretty easy win over Seattle where it was not given much of a challenge and now they have had the extra rest coming off a short week prior to that. Defensively, they are coming off their best three-game stretch of the season with only 30 points allowed on just 242.6 ypg and the 49ers have moved to No. 6 in defensive DVOA. The other side has been even better as San Francisco is No. 1 in offensive DVOA as it is now averaging 32.4 ppg taking out those three losses when numerous offensive pieces were missing. This game has been circled following the playoff loss from last season when Brock Purdy had to leave the game and the result was an embarrassing 31-7 loss. 10* (467) San Francisco 49ers

This is a play on the DETROIT LIONS for our NFC Game of the Month. This is a minimal public play with Detroit but it is not as popular as it normally would have been just a few weeks ago but the Lions are coming off a pair of ugly games and this is a big one to get right. Detroit was able to salvage a win against the Bears despite losing the turnover battle 4-1 but could not match that on Thanksgiving as it lost to Green Bay with another -3 turnover margin. The Lions won the yardage battle in both of those games including a 464-377 advantage last week and face another very average team and while it is on the road, it is on the turf. Detroit is No. 7 in net DVOA with both units ranking in the top 10. New Orleans lost at Atlanta last week but it still very much alive in the NFC South at 5-6 which is keeping this number down. The Saints relied on their defense early in the season but have regressed of late by allowing 25.2 ppg over their last five games. They are still a respectable No. 13 in defensive DVOA but have faced some poor offenses as in their 11 games, that have gone against an offense eight times that is bottom half of the league in DVOA and the best they have faced is ranked No. 9 and remain without cornerback Marshon Lattimore. Offensively, New Orleans is hurting with their top three receivers all in jeopardy of missing this game. Here, we play on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points off an upset loss as a home favorite going up against an opponent off a road loss. This situation is 35-10 ATS (77.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (453) Detroit Lions

This is a play on the WASHINGTON COMMANDERS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. Washington is coming off a blowout loss on Thanksgiving against Dallas which was its third straight loss to fall to 4-8 and it is catching another big number this week. The Commanders parted ways with defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio as it has been a struggle and while it does not look to get any easier here, players tend to step up in these spots after a coach getting let go. They are ranked No. 31 in defensive DVOA which is obviously horrible but it could not be in a better contrarian spot after everyone saw them get lit up against the Cowboys. They have been adequate on offense with efficiency and Sam Howell is still slinging it around and facing a middle of the pack defense. Miami is coming off a Black Friday win over the Jets on the road and is laying a similar number here coming off a big divisional win. The Dolphins have won two straight games following a mediocre 3-3 run and while those losses were against elite teams, this being the second of a back-to-back road set, it sets up similar to the first two games of the season where it scored 36 in the season opener and followed that up with just 24 points against the Patriots in their second back-to-back game. Home underdogs of a touchdown or more are 8-4-1 ATS this season. Here, we play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points outscored by five or more ppg in the first half, after scoring 14 points or less last game. This situation is 34-10 ATS (77.3 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (464) Washington Commanders

This is a play on the SEATTLE SEAHAWKS for our NFL Thursday Primetime Dominator. We won with the Cowboys on Thanksgiving as they ran away from Washington in the second half as this team is rolling right now and has been dominant at home. The Cowboys are 5-0 at home and have outscored opponents by 29 ppg but those have been against some poor teams with the Rams being the best of the bunch and none possessing a winning record. Despite that, this looks like they are laying a number to another losing team but they are putting it down against a competent team. Dallas is now 8-3 but has played only two teams with a winning record and lost both of those so we are not comparing San Francisco and Philadelphia to Seattle, this is way too aggressive. Dallas has played the second easiest schedule in the league and has moved up to No. 4 in net DVOA and No. 2 in net EPA so the numbers back up the record which has been helped by the easy slate. Dallas is 7-19 ATS in its last 26 games after a win by 28 or more points. The Seahawks are coming off a Thanksgiving loss to the 49ers and while that was a bad call, we are back on the Seahawks again despite hitting the road. They have lost two straight games and three of their last four and have San Francisco and Philadelphia on deck so there has to be a win in their somewhere to avoid falling out of the playoff hunt. The health of Geno Smith has been a concern but he has had another week to help his injured elbow and Seattle hopes to get Kenneth Walker back after missing the last two games. This line has gone up four points since opening at 5.5 a week ago in some spots and this is simply a massive overreaction. Here, we play against favorites averaging 360 or more total ypg, after gaining 450 or more total ypg over their last three games. This situation is 32-11 ATS (74.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (303) Seattle Seahawks

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS for our NFL Sunday Primetime Dominator. The Chargers fell to 4-6 with a 23-20 loss at Green Bay which makes in five times in those six defeats they have lost by a field goal or less. That includes all three losses at home and those came against Miami, Dallas and Detroit so it has been elite competition they have fallen to and get another similar opponent this week although now they are catching the biggest number of the bunch. Los Angeles is in the top half of the league in both net DVOA and net EPA and this has come against a schedule ranked No. 8 in the NFL. Baltimore shook off its last second loss to Cleveland with a win last Thursday night against Cincinnati but caught a big break there with quarterback Joe Burrow going down for the season. The Ravens are 8-3 and have a half-game lead over Cleveland in the AFC South but the schedule has been favorable as they are coming off a three-game homestand and this is just their second true road game since October 8. Baltimore is top five in both net DVOA and net EPA but it suffered a huge injury in its own right last week with tight end Mark Andrews lost for the season, adding to an already impacted injury report. Here, we play against road favorites outscoring opponents by 10 or more ppg, after a win by 10 or more points. This situation is 48-14 ATS (77.4 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (272) Los Angeles Chargers

This is a play on the BUFFALO BILLS for our NFL Nonconference Game of the Year. This could be a season defining game for Buffalo which rolled the Jets last week in its first game after firing offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey. Now the Bills hit the road against a much better team but they are catching a great number and they could have some renewed confidence in what is now a wide open AFC. While they have underperformed, the difference in turnovers and how they have occurred has been the situation as they are No. 7 in turnover worthy play rate. Buffalo is now ranked No. 5 in net DVOA while Philadelphia comes in at No. 10. The Eagles picked up a big win over Kansas City last week and it was a very fortunate one with the Chiefs making too many critical mistakes as well as a late dropped touchdown pass. Philadelphia is now 9-1 with six of those wins coming by one possession which puts it No. 2 in the latest Luck Rankings. Good teams know how to win and that is what the Eagles do but they are well down in the metrics compared to that record. Even in net EPA, they are well behind the Bills at No. 9 compared to Buffalo at No. 3. The Super Bowl revenge win presents the letdown here. Here, we play on road underdogs or pickems allowing a completion percentage of 64 percent or worse, after allowing 5.5 or less passing ypa last game. This situation is 58-29 ATS (66.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (267) Buffalo Bills

This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. Cleveland took out Pittsburgh last week to keep pace in the AFC North with Baltimore as it is a game back and could leave town with the lead should the Ravens trip up against the Chargers. Dorian Thompson-Robinson picked up his first win as a starter and it was not very pretty but it was enough where the Browns relied on the defense which is what we expect again here. It is important that this will be his second straight week of work with the first team. The defense remains No. 1 in both net DVOA and net EPA. Denver was looking like the team from last season with a 1-5 start but it has won four straight games which is actually the longest current winning streak in the NFL, to keep its playoff hopes alive. The Broncos are favored again this week against another backup quarterback and escaped with a one point win over Minnesota last week despite getting outgained by close to 100 yards as they won the turnover battle 3-0. The difference this week the Vikings do not have close to the defense as the Browns do and Denver could not must 300 yards of offense. Here, we play against teams in the second half of the season averaging between 18 and 23 ppg and after two straight wins by three or less points going up against teams averaging between 18 and 23 ppg. This situation is 27-6 ATS (81.8 percent) since 1983. 10* (265) Cleveland Browns

This is a play on the HOUSTON TEXANS for our NFL Divisional Game of the Month. Jacksonville had its five-game winning streak snapped with a 31-point loss against San Francisco but got it back last week against Tennessee with a 20-point victory. The Jaguars hit the road where they are 3-0 in true road games with this being the toughest opponent to date. They are 7-3 overall and have a one game lead over Houston in the AFC South who they lost to in Week Three so they are playing with revenge. Despite the strong start, Jacksonville is ranked only No. 21 in net EPA which is nine spots lower than the opponent it is favored over today. Houston opened 0-2 so it took a while to get its footing and it has made a great turnaround with wins in six of its last eight games including three straight. The two recent losses were both on the road and by two points each so the Texans come in on a four-game home winning streak. They are No. 12 in net EPA and net DVOA with similar splits on both sides of the ball. The story has been rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud who is now No. 8 in QB rating and has put up a 17:5 TD:INT ratio. The Texans are undervalued here with the wrong team favored. Here, we play against teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 revenging a loss against opponent, playing a team with a winning percentage between .501 and .600. This situation is 31-6 ATS (83.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (252) Houston Texans

This is a play on the SEATTLE SEAHAWKS for our NFL Thursday Primetime Dominator. The 49ers are coming in as big road favorites and while those spots have been good to take on Thanksgiving, this is a good spot to fade in a divisional game with a lot on the line. San Francisco has a one game lead over Seattle in the NFC West following a pair of wins over Jacksonville and Tampa Bay which happened to be the first two games back at pretty much full strength with Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams returning for the offense. The 49ers swept all three games last season including a 41-23 win in the playoffs setting up a big revenge spot for the Seahawks. Seattle is coming off a loss to the Rams by a point as it missed a last second field goal making it two of its four losses coming against the Rams. The Seahawks are currently in the No. 6 spot in the NFC and this starts a stretch of four games against the 49ers twice, Dallas and Philadelphia so they need to at least take care of business at home. Seattle is 4-1 at home including four straight wins and while the competition has not been great, the metrics are still good taking the strength of schedule into consideration. Here, we play against road favorites outscoring opponents by 10 or more ppg, after a win by 10 or more points. This situation is 48-14 ATS (77.4 percent) over the last 10 seasons with the average point differential being just 1.5 ppg. 10* (110) Seattle Seahawks

This is a play on the DALLAS COWBOYS for our NFL Thursday Enforcer. This is a big number to be laying with the Cowboys which are always a big public play on Thanksgiving but we are backing them in a great situational spot. Dallas has not been very good on Thanksgiving covering numbers but this team is rolling right now and has been dominant at home. The Cowboys are 4-0 at home and have outscored opponents by nearly 28 ppg and while those have been against some poor teams, their opponent Thursday falls into that as well. Dallas has moved up to No. 6 in DVOA and No. 2 in net EPA with both offense and defense ranked in the top 5. Washington is coming off a brutal loss to the Giants last week as it committed six turnovers in the 12-point defeat. The Commanders are now 4-7 and likely out of playoff consideration with a very tough upcoming schedule with three games against two of the top teams in the NFC. Washington has fallen to No. 27 in DVOA and No.. 26 in net EPA with the offense landing at No. 22 and defense being No. 30. Quarterback Sam Howell had a decent run going but was dreadful against New York and he has been sacked 51 times this season and Dallas is the No. 6 ranked blitzing team in the league. He leads the league in passing yards but is No. 22 in QBR. Here, we play against road underdogs of 10.5 or more points with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 after two or more consecutive losses. This situation is 23-2 ATS (92 percent) over the last 10 seasons with the average scoring differential being 22.6 ppg. 10* (108) Dallas Cowboys

This is a play on the DENVER BRONCOS for our NFL Sunday Primetime Dominator. Minnesota is one of the hottest teams in the NFL as it has won five consecutive games to get within a game and a half of Detroit in the NFC North. The Vikings have covered all five of those games as well, the last two with Joshua Dobbs at quarterback and he has been a great story but those wins were against the NFC South, the worst division in football. They now head out west to face another team on a turnaround and one that is more justified at this point. The Vikings are the public darling right now with the longest winning streak in the league and are catching 82 percent of the money yet this line has not budged since opening and that is telling. The Broncos have won three straight games to move to 4-5 to get right into the playoff hunt. They are coming back home for a pair of games where they have won two in a row after dropping their first three games in Denver. The defense has been outstanding during this recent winning streak as they have allowed only 16 ppg which has helped an offense that has not been very productive. While Russell Wilson has not put up big numbers, he has been efficient with 18 touchdowns and only four interceptions and a 104.0 passer rating. Here, we play against teams with a winning percentage between .501 and .600 off an upset win as a home underdog, playing a losing team in the second half of the season. This situation is 25-4 ATS (86.2 percent) since 1983. 10* (474) Denver Broncos

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES RAMS for our NFL Divisional Game of the Year. Seattle is tied atop the NFC West with the 49ers at 6-3 but while San Francisco is +109 in scoring differential, the Seahawks are -1 and they have been outgained overall by 209 yards. Seattle is at the top of the list as one of the most overrated teams with a winning record and they could be exposed with its upcoming schedule. They are coming off a win over Washington which was their second win in three games which were by a combined seven points and both at home. Taking a look at the teams they have dominated, they are the Panthers, Giants and Cardinals and while the other cover came against Detroit, that was in overtime where the Lions did not even see the ball. This is a possible lookahead with a Thanksgiving game on deck against the 49ers. Los Angeles is coming off its bye week which came at a great time after a brutal stretch. The Rams have dropped three straight games, failing to cover any of those but just one of those was with Matthew Stafford playing a full game and that was the loss to Pittsburgh where the defense allowed a pair of fourth quarter touchdowns. Stafford will return this week and he brings a different dynamic to the offense especially with Cooper Kupp back in the lineup. Even with Stafford and Kupp missing time, the Rams are No. 15 in offensive DVOA which is nothing special but that is just two spots below Seattle. 10* (470) Los Angeles Rams

This is a play on the PITTSBURGH STEELERS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. The Steelers keep finding ways to win as they are now 6-3 following a pair of wins over Tennessee and Green Bay and while those wins are not saying much, they come into a good spot this week. Pittsburgh was turnover free in both of those games and it has only four turnovers in its last seven games after committing four turnovers in its first two games. This is the first of two straight divisional games where they are 2-0 and three of the final four games against the AFC North will be against teams without their starting quarterback with Joe Burrow our for the season. The defense continues to lead the way as Pittsburgh is No. 7 in defensive DVOA and have a great matchup here. Cleveland is coming off an improbable win over Baltimore as it rallied from a 24-9 and won on a last second field goal to also improve to 6-3. Quarterback Deshawn Watson delivered an inspired effort in the second half to pull off the victory but it was announced that he is out for the rest of the season with a shoulder injury. Granted he was not having the best season overall but now the ball will be in the hands of rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson who made one start and he was awful against the Ravens, going 19-36 for 121 yards with no touchdowns and three interceptions. Granted, he was thrust into that game with no preparation and while he has had practice this week with the top unit, he will struggle. 10* (451) Pittsburgh Steelers

This is a play on the CHICAGO BEARS for our NFL Divisional Game of the Month. Detroit is coming off a win over the Chargers for their second straight win following their second loss of the season at Baltimore. The Lions lead the NFC North by a game and a half over the surging Vikings and their offense has led the way as they are No. 2 overall and No. 6 in scoring. They have been buoyed by a rushing offense that has put up over 200 yards in each of their last two games but face a very underrated Bears defense that has improved dramatically. Detroit has been one of the better teams against the number which adds value and it has the lookahead to Thanksgiving. Chicago has been an improving team as it is 3-3 over its last six games and after getting blown out in each of its first three games, the Bears last four losses have come by one possession and they have outgained their opponent in six of their last seven games. The Bears are on a mini bye following a Thursday night game which is always beneficial this late into the season and we have seen this line come down based on the return of Justin Fields at quarterback but we are still above two key numbers in a divisional game. The Chicago defense has improved after an awful start and the numbers prove that as they have allowed 214 passing yards or less in five of their last seven games while giving up an average of only 56.4 ypg on the ground. 10* (461) Chicago Bears

This is a play on the CAROLINA PANTHERS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. This one is ugly but at this number, it is a must take. Dallas is coming off a home win over the quarterback depleted Giants and that has been the story this season as the Cowboys are 4-0 at home with every win coming by at least 20 points and by an average of 27.5 ppg. It has been a different story on the road as they are 2-3 and while two of those losses were against the 49ers and Eagles, the other came at Arizona where they were laying a similar number and lost by 12 points and they have covered just once in their last nine road games coming off a win. Dallas is clearly the better team here and it would be an easy game if the better team always dominated by that is far from the case in this league and the Cowboys have been awful in these spots, going 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games coming off double-digit win. Carolina is coming off a loss in Chicago which was its best road effort of the season where its other four losses were by an average of 15.8 ppg, three of those coming against current division leaders. The Panthers are 1-3 at home with the lone win coming against Houston and two of the losses were by one possession. We are going to see full focus and effort here as Carolina is staring at a three-game upcoming roadtrip. Home underdogs of a touchdown or more that have a winning percentage of .250 or worse have covered at close to a 60 percent rate since 1993. 10* (466) Carolina Panthers

This is a play on the Cincinnati BENGALS for our NFL Thursday Primetime Dominator. It was a 1-3 start for Cincinnati but the Bengals ran off four straight wins before losing last week against Houston with the defense getting lit up for 544 yards. While they are 5-4, the tiebreakers are not on their side as they have only one win against the AFC which was the most recent win over reeling Buffalo and this includes a 0-2 record in the AFC North so this has turned into a massive game. Being a divisional game, we are getting a good line with Cincinnati as it is over the key number of three after opening at 2.5. This is a great spot for quarterback Joe Burrow who won his lone game as an underdog this season over San Francisco has he has won seven of his last 11 games when getting points. Baltimore is coming off a tough loss against Cleveland as it blew a 24-9 lead and eventually lost on a last second field goal. The Ravens are still in first place in the division at 7-3 but are just 3-2 at home and while this should be a bounce back spot, it is not the ideal situation. The Ravens still lead the league in total DVOA so the numbers are there but there are some key injuries hurting them with the big one being offensive tackle Ronnie Stanley who had to leave last game with a knee injury. Here, we play against home teams outgaining their opponents by 1.75 or more passing ypa, after gaining 7 or more passing ypa last game. This situation is 57-26 ATS (68.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (311) Cincinnati Bengals

This is a play on the BUFFLO BILLS for our NFL Monday Primetime Dominator. We were waiting for this line to drop but it has not but this is still a great spot for Buffalo with anything under 8. The Bills are coming off a loss at Cincinnati to go 2-3 over their last five games and have failed to cover any of those, going 0-5 ATS. Yet they come in as the big favorite in a good spot with the rest of the AFC coming back. Despite being 5-4, the Bills are No. 7 in net EPA and No. 1 in offense even with the recent numbers pf ppg which is at 20.2 ppg over this five-game stretch. While failing to cover in their last home game against Tampa Bay, they have gone 3-0 in the three games following a loss. Denver has found a way to win two straight games but both of those were at home. The Broncos are 1-2 on the road with the lone win coming in Chicago and this not the place to be. Denver is ranked middle of the league in offense and while some might say the defense is carrying them, it is not. The defense is ranked dead last in EPA and also No. 32 in defensive DVOA and that is bad news against an offense ready to get right. Buffalo is 26-10 ATS in its last 37 games after three or more consecutive losses against the spread. 10* (266) Buffalo Bills

This is a play on the NEW YORK JETS for our NFL Sunday Primetime Dominator. The Jets are coming off a loss you do not see very often as they lost by 21 points despite outgaining the Chargers 270-191 as they lost the turnover battle 3-0. New York can get back over .500 here in a great situation against a team in a massive letdown spot. The Jets remain dead last in offensive EPA and No. 30 in offensive DVOA but have a good matchup here after facing some really strong defenses through the first part of the season. What has kept them competitive is the defense as they are No. 6 in defensive DVOA and No. 7 in defensive EPA and go up against a rookie quarterback that has significant film on him. The Raiders are coming off a blowout win against arguably the worst team in the NFL as they responded in their first game with a new coach. They are a deceiving 4-5 with the first three wins coming by a total of nine points and they have gone 0-4 against teams ranked in the top 16 in the power rankings and the Jets come in at No. 13 and have played the No. 1 ranked schedule so they have been more impressive than the .500 record shows. Las Vegas made the change at quarterback with Aidan O'Connell and he was pretty average against the Giants with just 209 yards on 64 percent completions and takes a big step up in defense here. 10* (263) New York Jets

This is a play on the SEATTLE SEAHAWKS for our NFL Supreme Annihilator. We lost with Seattle last week as it got thumped in Baltimore 37-3 to fall to 5-3 but has bounced back with a win after its previous two losses. The defense got lit up against the Ravens which is a concern but they were trending the right way and are still No. 13 in defensive EPA after going into last week No. 11. The offense could generate nothing against a great defense but that will not be the case here and Seattle comes in No. 10 in offensive DVOA. This is a near must win with a pair of division games on deck with Dallas, San Francisco and Philadelphia immediately after that. The Commanders are coming off a win at New England to improve to 4-5 but it is pretty deceiving. While Sam Howell has improved as the season has gone on, they are No. 26 in offense DVOA and No. 22 in offensive EPA and it is even worse on the other side. Even though the Commanders have allowed 17 points or less in three of their last four games, those were against the Patriots, Giants and Cardinals which are all No. 25 or worse in DVOA. Washington is 0-3 against the top 16 and while it was competitive in both games against Philadelphia, those were divisional games and it was blown out in its other one against Buffalo. 10* (262) Seattle Seahawks

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. We are going anti public in this game as well as this line has done a slip from opening as the Chargers opened as a slight favorite and have seen the line shirt to the Lions being favored. Los Angeles is coming off a win over the Jets by 21 points despite getting outgained as they benefitted from a 3-0 turnover advantage. The Chargers have not looked right as their 4-4 record can attest to that and now is the chance to beat a quality team as they have failed to beat Miami, Dallas and Kansas City with two of those losses coming by a combined five points. They are No. 13 in net EPA which is only five spots behind the Lions. Detroit has won five of six games and coming off its bye week and it is coming off its best defensive effort of the season where it allowed 157 yards against the Raiders. Th Lions are certainly a contender in the NFC with San Francisco and Dallas playing inconsistent and Philadelphia not looking like the team it did last season. Detroit is No. 4 in total DVOA but it has played a schedule ranked No. 27 in the league and has gone 1-2 in games against the top 16 in the league while rolling to a 5-0 record against teams outside that and the Chargers in fact fall in that inside that in the latest power rankings. 10* (258) Los Angeles Chargers

This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our NFL Divisional Game of the Month. This line has risen from opening and continues to go up. Baltimore is the talk of the NFL as it has now won four straight games and are in the midst of a stretch of for games taking place over five games. The Ravens have a game and half lead in the AFC North with a pair of divisional games starting this week which will leave them with only one more the rest of the season. Baltimore has moved to No. 1 in net EPA and No. 1 in total DVOA so the talk is real but this is too many points in a divisional game against a very good team. Cleveland is coming off a 27-0 win over Arizona as it allowed just 58 total yards, the second time it has allowed fewer than 100 yards, the first coming against Tennessee. While we are not expecting that here, the defense is real as the Browns are ranked No. 1 in defensive EPA and No. 1 in defensive DVOA. The offense was fine with Deshawn Watson in his first game back in a while and now should continue to get better with more snaps. He was a late scratch in the first meeting and Cleveland did not stand a chance with the limited offense along with turnovers doing them in. While they are 1-2 on the road, they have won the yardage battle in all of those and this looks like another close game with those two road losses coming by four points each. 10* (243) Cleveland Browns

This is a play on the NEW ORLEANS SAINTS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. One of the big stories in the league from last week was the Minnesota win with quarterback Joshua Dobbs leading the Vikings to a win over Atlanta despite being with the team for only five days as he replaced starter Jaren Hall, who got a concussion in the first half, and went on to pass for 158 yards and two touchdowns while rushing for 66 yards and a touchdown. It was a performance that is hard to top given the circumstance and now it is time to fade. The Vikings have gotten back into the playoff mix as after a 1-4 start, they have won and covered four straight games and sharp early coming went against them here as a repeat of that performance is not going to happen. New Orleans has won two straight games to also move to 5-4 following a win over Chicago where it was outgained but benefitted from a 5-0 turnover advantage. There have been some ugly wins along the way but also some tough losses with three of the four coming by one possession. The offense is an inconsistent unit but has gotten better since the return of Alvin Kamera and the defense remains strong as the Saints are No. 4 in defensive EPA and No. 9 in defensive DVOA and have a big advantage here against a depleted Minnesota offense that could still be without Justin Jefferson. 10* (249) New Orleans Saints

This is a play on the NEW YORK JETS for our NFL Monday Primetime Dominator. The Jets are coming off an improbable win over the Giants last Sunday as they turned a missed Giants field goal with 24 seconds left into a game-tying drive and eventually won it in overtime. That was the third straight win for the Jets which are suddenly now 4-3 and right in the playoff mix getting close to the halfway point of the season. The offense remains inconsistent as they are currently dead last in the league in EPA while sitting No. 29 on DVOA but have a very favorable matchup here. The defense has kept New York afloat as it has held four opponents to 16 points or less including Buffalo and Philadelphia while also keeping Kansas City in check. The Jets are No. 9 in defensive EPA and No. 6 in defensive DVOA. The Chargers are coming off a win over the Bears Sunday night which halted a two-game losing streak to move to 3-4. The win over Chicago was the first by more than one possession as they had their best defensive effort of the season but this is still a bad unit. Los Angeles is ranked No. 28 in defensive EPA and No. 27 in defensive DVOA and while facing another weak offense here, the environment is different. The Chargers have one of the top passing games in the league with a No. 6 EPA in passing behind Justin Herbert who is having his best season thus far with a 101.1 rating but has a big test in this one. The Chargers are a big public side as this line opened at -1.5 and crossed the key number on Wednesday. Here, we play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points outscored by five or more ppg in the first half, after scoring 14 points or less last game. This situation is 34-9 ATS (79.1 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (476) New York Jets

This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES for our NFL Divisional Game of the Month. This is a big division game that on paper, has strength against strength and weakness against weakness. Dallas has won a pair of games since getting blown out in San Francisco but the jury remains out on this team still. Of their five wins, four have come against future non-playoff teams with the fifth coming against the marginal Chargers. The Cowboys are No. 2 in defensive EPA but this will be its toughest test of the season against an Eagles offense that is No. 4 in EPA. They have had only two poor games defensively but both of those were on the road and one of those came against the pathetic Cardinals. Dallas is No. 17 in offensive DVOA and No. 13 in EPA which is due to a running game that has been pretty much nonexistent. The passing game has been great at times but this is not an easy matchup. The Eagles defense is the weakness mentioned before but they can disrupt Dak Prescott with the pressure they create as they are No. 8 in pressure rate and No. 6 in sacks while coming into this game in better health. The same can be said about Philadelphia for beating mostly teams that will not be in the postseason but at 7-1, the Eagles win the games they are supposed to and throw in a solid win against Miami as well. The lone loss came against the Jets but they lost the turnover battle 4-0 in that one. Overall, the schedule has not been too difficult against opposing teams but five of their first eight games have come on the road. The home team has won the last eight meetings not counting when Eagles sat their starters. 10* (472) Philadelphia Eagles

This is a play on the CAROLINA PANTHERS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. Carolina is coming off its first win of the season after a 0-6 start and the defense put up its best effort of the season against Houston and the Panthers finally have some momentum on their side. The offense may not have scored much as they put up only 15 points that included one touchdown but there were subtleties on display. Different formations from new play caller Thomas Brown made quarterback Bryce Young more comfortable as he did not turn the ball over and season highs in both passer rating at 103.6 and ypa at 7.6 and has a better matchup this week. Coaching revenge is not going make his team play better but head coach Frank Reich faces the former team that fired him so he want this one and make sure his players are on board with that. The Panthers have been miserable on the road, getting outscored by 15.8 ppg, losing all four games by double digits, but they have the home win and the two home losses were by one possession. The Colts have lost three straight games following a decent 3-2 start and while the offense has been a strength with consistent scoring, turnovers have been the issue along with a regressing defense. Indianapolis has given it up nine times during the losing streak but the real issue has been the defense. A month ago, the Colts were No. 14 in EPA but have dropped to No. 24 and they have given up 38 ppg over the last three games with the last two coming against below average offenses. The Panthers do not have much of a public backing so the Colts have to be favored. 10* (468) Carolina Panthers

This is a play on the SEATTLE SEAHAWKS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. Baltimore has been moving up the metrics charts as it has now won three straight games following a win in Arizona last week despite actually getting outgained to move to 6-2. The Ravens remain No. 1 in net DVOA and have moved up to No. 2 net EPA and the line is reflecting the public perception as it has moved up from opening and is just too big in this matchup. This is the start of a three-game homestand for the Ravens but this could be a precarious spot with divisional games against Cleveland and Cincinnati on deck. Lamar Jackson has owned the NFC as he is now 17-1 against the other conference but is just 8-10 ATS in those games so covering the big number has been a problem. Speaking of which, he is 7-17 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 or more points. Seattle was able to sneak out the win last week against the Browns and has now won five of its last six games with just a four-point loss at Cincinnati being the lone blemish. The Seahawks have taken over first place in the NFC West by a half-game over the suddenly struggling 49ers and while the schedule has not been overly difficult, the metrics remain strong. Seattle is ranked No. 10 in both net EPA and net DVOA with every separate category being within the top 15. Seattle did accomplish something last week that no other team had done. The offense became the first to achieve the following against the Browns defense as they managed a positive EPA overall, a rush EPA and fewer than two sacks. That is good news against this defense. 10* (455) Seattle Seahawks

This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our NFL Supreme Annihilator. Cleveland could not hold on against Seattle last week as it allowed the game winning touchdown for the Seahawks with 38 seconds left. The Browns are 4-3 and turnovers tell the story as they have given the ball away 10 times in those three losses. In one of the losses against the Steelers, two of those turnovers directly turned into touchdowns in the four-point loss so taking care of the ball is paramount but that can be said for any team in any situation. The turnovers have also directly affected the defense as they have put the unit into some tough spots but the Cleveland defense is still ranked No. 1 in EPA and No. 2 in DVOA and could not ask for a better bounce back matchup this week. While Cleveland has Baltimore and Pittsburgh on deck, coming off a loss last week will avoid any sort of a lookahead. Arizona played admirably last week against Baltimore as it snuck out the backdoor cover by scoring nine points over the last 1:14 of the game but the Cardinals have still lost five straight games following the surprising upset of the Cowboys. They will no longer have the services of quarterback Joshua Dobbs as he was traded to Minnesota and with Kyler Murray not ready to come back just yet, rookie Clayton Tune will be making his first start in an awful spot. Not only facing the best defense in the league, going back over a decade, rookie quarterbacks on the road are 22-127-1. The record correlates with the metrics as the Cardinals are No. 31 in net EPA and No. 28 in net DVOA with both sides horrendous. 10* (458) Cleveland Browns

This is a play on the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS for our NFL Star Attraction. We have seen interesting line movement as Kansas City opened at -2.5 and it fluctuated between -2.5 and -2 for most of the week but went down to -1.5 to -1 by late Wednesday despite 73 percent of the money being on the Chiefs. Kansas City is coming off its second loss of the season last week in Denver and while a lookahead to this game may have partially contributed to that, the flu was running through the locker room, notably Patrick Mahomes. He is coming off the second lowest passer rating of his career at 59.2 and while he landed on the injury report with a hand issue, he will be fine and this is where he thrives. He has lost back-to-back games only three times in his career with the most recent occasion was Weeks 2 and 3 of the 2021 season. Additionally, he is 19-6-1 ATS in his 26 games as a favorite of -3 or less or as an underdog. Miami is coming off a win over New England following its second loss of the season. Both losses came against two of the best teams in the NFL in Buffalo and Philadelphia, while five of the six wins came against teams that will not be sniffing the playoffs with the Chargers being a borderline team right now. The Dolphins offense is ranked No. 1 in DVOA and No. 2 in EPA and their struggles have come against teams that apply consistent pressure as seven of his 11 sacks came against the Bills and Eagles which are No. 2 and No. 6 respectively in sacks and Kansas City is ranked No. 2 with Buffalo with 28. Great bounce back matchup for the Chiefs. 10* (452) Kansas City Chiefs

This is a play on the PITTSBURGH STEELERS for our NFL Thursday Primetime Dominator. We won with Tennessee on Sunday as it was a big game in what was its first home game in a month and this week starting a three-game stretch on the road. The Titans were able to get the job done with Will Levis making his first career start but now he makes his first road start and rookie quarterbacks have struggled in these spots as going back over a decade, rookie quarterbacks on the road are 22-127-1. He made the big plays with three of his four touchdowns being 33, 47 and 61 yards and take away his four-touchdown yardage, he threw for only 81 yards in his other 15 completions. The win snapped a two-game losing streak and Tennessee is now 3-0 at home but 0-4 away from home and this is a horrible spot catching a bad number. The Titans are now ranked No. 20 in offensive EPA and No. 22 in defensive EPA and faces an excellent defense and while catching a break again a mediocre quarterback, the defense has allowed 23, 23 and 27 points against low-tiered starters and backups. The Steelers lost to Jacksonville by 10 points to drop to 4-3. The defense played well with a bend do not break effort as they did hold the Jaguars to four field goals while the touchdown given up was simply a missed coverage play on a 56-yard strike to Travis Etienne. The Steelers are tied for No. 11 in defensive EPA and have a much better matchup here. The offense was inconsistent once again as quarterback Kenny Pickett left the game with a rib injury in the first half and Mitch Trubisky came in relief and was not much better but he will be working with the starters on this short week. 10* (310) Pittsburgh Steelers

This is a play on the DETROIT LIONS for our NFL Monday Primetime Dominator. We played against Detroit last week as it had its four-game winning streak snapped. This is a big number to put down and will be a typical primetime favorite public play but those are called for at times. The Lions at 5-2 are one of the top teams in the league in metrics as they come in ranked No. 5 in net DVOA and are back home following a two-game roadtrip. The two home wins were blowouts and the lone loss came against Seattle, which came into Week 8 as the No. 2 ranked team in net DVOA, in overtime where Detroit never saw the ball. Las Vegas is coming off a blowout loss at Chicago last week to fall to 3-4 on the season, snapping a two-game winning streak. Two of those wins were at home with the other win coming in Denver by a point and this team is a few played away from being 1-6 or potentially 0-7. Las Vegas is ranked outside the top 24 in EPA in all but offensive passing and that is just No. 16 and the Raiders have an overall net EPA of No. 30. That is the same ranking as their net DVOA so the 3-4 record is even more deceiving. Here, we play on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 after covering the spread in five or six out of their last seven games, playing a team with a losing record. This situation is 58-25 ATS (69.9 percent) since 1983. 10* (280) Detroit Lions

This is a play on the CHICAGO BEARS for our NFL Sunday Primetime Dominator. The Bears are certainly not a very good team but this line is saying the Chargers are which they are not. Chicago has won two of its last three games after a 0-4 start and in four of their overall losses, they have been -2 in turnovers each game and two of those defeats were by a combined nine points. Quarterback Tyson Bagent had a decent first start after getting thrown into the fire against the Vikings and while he faced a bad defense, the now faces an even worse defense. Los Angeles lost for us in Kansas City last week and it has been just bad mistakes and coaching that has led to its 2-4 record. They are back home but it is certainly not a big home field edge and while the Bears are down, there will be plenty of fans there. The Chargers only won three games last season by more than one possession and that has carried over into this season with the two wins coming against the Raiders and Vikings by seven and four points respectively. Here, we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points off a road loss, in a game involving two teams with winning percentages between .250 and .400. This situation is 22-4 ATS (84.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (277) Chicago Bears

This is a play on the DENVER BRONCOS for our NFL Divisional Game of the Month. We just saw this matchup two weeks ago to open Week 6 on Thursday night and Kansas City came away with a 19-8 win and covered on a late field goal. The Broncos have been one of the biggest underachievers this season as they are 2-5 following a win last week against Green Bay with the other win coming against Chicago. The only bad loss was against Miami as a loss to the Jets was close until a fumble returned for a touchdown and two other losses coming by three points combined. In the first meeting, the Chiefs were favored by 10.5 at home and are now laying only around a field goal less on the road in a horrible spot. They have won six straight games following an opening game loss against Detroit and are coming off a big divisional win last week against the Chargers. Now they head out on the road after two home games and they have the lookahead game in Germany next week against the Dolphins. The playbook will be vanilla without a doubt. Here, we play against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points outscoring opponents by 10 or more ppg, after a win by 10 or more points. This situation is 32-8 ATS (80 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (272) Denver Broncos

This is a play on the NEW ORLEANS SAINTS for our NFL Supreme Annihilator. We lost with New Orleans last Thursday against Jacksonville as a potentially tying touchdown was dropped to close the game. The Saints fell to 3-4 with the loss after dropping two straight and four of five following a 2-0 start and even though the last two games were lost by a touchdown each, the Saints won the yardage battle in both by 133 and 77 yards. New Orleans is ranked No. 10 in net EPA with the defense leading the way with an EPA of No. 4. The Colts lost a tough one at home last week and they have also dropped two straight games to match the Saints at 3-4. The problem has been turnovers as they piled up eight over the two games but the money is saying they bounce back with 81 percent of the money on them which has flipped the line. The offense and defense are both in the middle of the league in EPA but Indianapolis has a big disadvantage in defense with Gardner Minshew being turnover prone and its own defense can struggle against this type of midrange offense. Here, we play on road teams after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, in a game involving two teams with winning percentages between .400 and .499. This situation is 22-4 ATS (84.6 percent) since 1983. 10* (251) New Orleans Saints

This is a play on the WASHINGTON COMMANDERS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. The Eagles were an enigma through its first six games which included a loss against the Jets with most of the first five wins leaving more questions than answers. The win over the Dolphins last Sunday night has the public all in love again and money has poured in on Philadelphia to move this already inflated line for being a divisional game in a rematch from four weeks ago. This is no doubt one of the best rosters in the NFL but they have looked off from the start and they have gone from an EPA of No. 2 to No. 7. The Eagles have Dallas on deck as well. Washington has been all over the place at 3-4 as it is coming off a loss against the Giants on the road. The Commanders are coming off a two-game roadtrip and are back home where they have failed to cover a game, going 0-3 which makes them unbettable to some. In the first meeting in Philadelphia, they took the Eagles to overtime and these divisional game can be out of whack like that. Sam Howell will be a big key as he was coming off three straight solid games before last week. Here, we play on home teams revenging a road loss against opponent, off an upset loss as a road favorite. This situation is 96-49 ATS (66.2 percent) since 1983. 10* (258) Washington Commanders

This is a play on the TENNESSEE TITANS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. Tennessee is riding a two-game losing streak following a loss to Indianapolis on the road and a loss at Baltimore. The Titans are coming off a bye so this is their first home game in one month and then they have to travel for three straight games so they know the importance of this game. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill will probably miss this game and word is Will Levis will get the start. That is not a huge matter as Tennessee has a passing EPA of No. 22 as it is and Atlanta has a defensive passing EPA of No. 21 and they will rely on the strong running game. Atlanta is coming off an upset at Tampa Bay to improve to 4-3 but this record could be so much worse as three of the Falcons wins have come by a total of six points. This is only the third true road game of the season and counting the game in London, they are averaging 9.7 ppg away from home compared to 21.5 ppg in Atlanta. In either instance, this offense is bad. Overall, Atlanta is No. 24 in DVOA which is lower than Tennessee and the line flipped from opening with everyone on the Falcons. Here, we play against favorites forcing 1 or less turnovers per game, after a game where they committed three or more turnovers. This situation is 50-16 ATS (75.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (266) Tennessee Titans

This is a play on the GREEN BAY PACKERS for our NFL Star Attraction. Great spot and great line for Green Bay. The Packers were out west which resulted in losses to Las Vegas and Denver but by only six points combined. They have lost three straight games overall to fall to 2-4 with one of those losses coming against Detroit and the other three by a total of seven points. Th Packers are No. 19 in EPA which is pretty good for the record and a lot of that is due to being tied for the No. 4 spot in the Luck rankings, in this case unlucky as the close scores indicate that. Minnesota is coming off the big win over San Francisco on Monday night for everyone to witness and that is putting the public on the Vikings this week. Minnesota has won two straight games to move to 3-4 and to their credit, they have lost all four games by one possession but so have its three victories. The Vikings are 2-1 on the road with the wins coming against Carolina and Chicago and now they go away from home for the first time without Justin Jefferson against a solid opponent. Here, we play on teams where the line is +3 to -3 after three or more consecutive losses against the spread going up against an opponent after two or more consecutive wins against the spread. This situation is 35-11 ATS (76.1 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (268) Green Bay Packers

This is a play on the BUFFALO BILLS for our NFL Thursday Primetime Dominator. This is the get right game for Buffalo as it is coming off three straight poor efforts and was a yard away from suffering three straight losses. The injuries have piled up on the defensive side of the ball and while the Bills allowed Mac Jones to go off, they should be in a better spot at home against Baker Mayfield. Despite the recent struggles, Buffalo is still ranked No. 1 in net EPA and No. 4 in net DVOA and while it has played the No. 25 ranked schedule, Tampa Bay is right in line with that with the No. 23 ranked slate. The offense needs to clean it up as it has committed six turnovers the last three games. Tampa Bay has dropped two straight games while getting outgained by wide margins in both. The Buccaneers have gone just 1-3 at home but they are 2-0 on the road yet that comes with the caveat of winning the turnover margin 6-1. Despite playing the soft schedule as well, the Buccaneers are ranked just No. 15 in net EPA and No. 20 in net DVOA and have been outgained in four of their six games overall. Tampa Bay is 0-7 ATS off a division game and it is 1-9 ATS after one or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons. This game feels a lot like the first situation where Buffalo lost a divisional road game and returned home and blasted the Raiders. 10* (110) Buffalo Bills

This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS for our Monday Primetime Dominator. The 49ers lost their first game of the season last week and this is a good bounce back spot and the line says that. The injury report was not on their side with Chrisian McCaffrey leaving the game last week but he is now probable. He sat out the first two days of practice ahead of this week but was able to get on the field Saturday. Despite the loss last week, San Francisco is still ranked No.1 in net EPA and No. 1 in DVOA and catch a good match up. We won with Minnesota last week but it was an ugly win as a fumble return was the difference. They were outgained 275-220 and the Justin Jefferson absence was evident. The schedule has been middle of the road at No. 15 with the two wins coming against two of the four worst teams in DVOA. The Vikings are ranked No. 25 in defensive EPA and overall No. 20 in net EPA. Minnesota has gone 2-8 as underdogs of more than six points under Kirk Cousins. Additionally, Minnesota is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games against trams averaging 130 or more rushing ypg. 10* (473) San Francisco 49ers

This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES for our NFL Sunday Primetime Dominator. The best thing that could have happened to the Eagles was losing last week as it should have woke them up as they were sleepwalking through the first third of the season and they needed that kick in the ass prior to this matchup. It has been an uneven start for quarterback Jalen Hurts but overall the offense has been solid with a No. 5 ranking in EPA and No. 7 in DVOA and have an excellent matchup this week unlike the one against the Jets last week. The running game has a significant edge. Miami continues to roll as it is 5-1 after erasing a 14-0 deficit against Carolina to win by 21 points but this is not Carolina. The Dolphins fit all the metrics on offense as it is one of the most explosive in recent years as it has scored 31 or more points four times. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is having an MVP caliber season but has not faced much pressure. The five wins have come against teams ranked in the bottom half of the league in pressure rate while the one loss came against the Bills whose 31.1 percent pressure rate is tops in the league. Now the Dolphins face the Eagles which are No. 4 in pressure rate at 29.1 percent. Overall, the Eagles have allowed 20 points or fewer four times as well. Defensively, Miam is not exceptional but has not needed to be as it is ranked No. 23 in EPA and No. 27 in DVOA so the Eagles can keep up. One intangible that can make a difference in margin games if close is special teams with the Eagles being No. 3 in special teams DVOA and Miami checking in at No. 30. 10* (472) Philadelphia Eagles

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS for our NFL Star Attraction. This is not the best spot for the Chargers coming off a short week and playing a team coming off a mini bye but the fact it is a divisional game compensates that. Los Angeles struggled against Dallas with its offense with Justin Herbert missing many throws but he should bounce back here. The Chargers three losses this season have been by three points or less and going back to last season, their last eight losses have been by a touchdown or less. In this series, five of the last six games have been decided by six points or less with the lone exception being a 17-point Chargers win so they have been one team that has matched up well with the Chiefs. Defensively, they are making strides even though they are down in the metrics but they will be facing a Kansas city offense that still is not clicking with the exception of a game against the Bears. The Chiefs are coming off a win over the Broncos to make it five straight victories but only one of those games was against a team with a playoff possibility, the Jaguars, with three of the teams being a combined 4-14 and the other boing the 3-3 Jets. One edge for the Chargers is to slow the game down with its improved running game that is ranked No. 3 in EPA going up against a Chiefs defense ranked No. 19 in rushing EPA. That will dictate a shorter game which again favored the overpriced divisional line. The records may show a 2.5-game difference but these teams are more evenly matched especially with history over the last few years. 10* (467) Los Angeles Chargers

This is a play on the SEATTLE SEAHAWKS for our NFL Divisional Game of the Month. This is a good bounce back game for Seattle after coming up short in Cincinnati last week following its bye week. We expected Joe Burrow to have a big game which he did not as the Seattle defense held its own and is moving up in the metrics and has an easy matchup at home this week. It was the offense that stumbled against the Bengals as they made four trips into the redzone and came away with only three points. The Bengals utilized their relatively high pressure rate to get to Geno Smith but now he faces the team with the lowest pressure rate in the league. Overall, Seattle has the No. 8 ranked offensive EPA including No. 1 in rushing and should be in line for its biggest game facing the No. 26 ranked EPA against the run. Arizona opened the season with some surprising results as it took Washington to the end, built a massive lead over the Giants before a second half collapse and then defeated the Cowboys but the Cardinals have regressed over their last three games. This is more of the expected norm than to go back to the unexpected early results as this is not a good roster. The Cardinals have played well at home but have struggled on the road on both sides. Offensively, they are averaging only 13.7 ppg as quarterback Joshua Dobbs has had two of his three worst games on the highway and overall has put up passer ratings of 57.6 and 58.5 the last two games. Seattle is banged up in the secondary but that is not an issue here especially knowing it is ranked No. 4 in pass win rate. 10* (464) Seattle Seahawks

This is a play on the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. We won with the Browns last week as they handed San Francsico its first loss of the season and that was a big play against the 49ers as much as it was a play on the Browns and its worked out as expected. The outright win was not as expected but that sets up a great spot this week in a play against situation as Cleveland is now overvalued hitting the road against what we feel is still an undervalued team. Deshaun Watson missed last week and he is questionable this week meaning we could see P.J. Walker again and he was pretty bad completing just over 50 percent of his passes for 192 yards and two interceptions. Cleveland has allowed just 1,002 yards through its first five games which is pretty remarkable considering it is the fewest since 1971 so it will not be easy but this is not a sustainable run. The Colts lost in Jacksonville and it was based on mistakes. They outgained the Jaguars 354-233 but were -3 in turnover margin and that sets them up this week for a bounce back as they return home to get back over .500. Quarterback Gardner Minshew threw for 329 yards so he slung it around which we will need to do here to avoid pressure but three interceptions killed him. The Browns remain No. 1 in defensive EPA and DVOA while Indianapolis has an above average offensive EPA of No. 12 and DVOA of No. 14. The Colts defense is middle of the pack and pace a bad Browns offense with or without Watson as they are No. 29 in offensive EPA and No. 27 in DVOA. 10* (456) Indianapolis Colts

This is a play on the BALTIMORE RAVENS for our NFL Supreme Annihilator. Detroit looks like a team that is going to contend in the NFC and while we lost playing against the Lions last week, we are doing the same this week based on market perception creating value. First and foremost, Baltimore has a better net overall EPA, No. 6 vs. No. 7 while sitting just three spots lower in DVOA which is the more arbitrary of the two metrics. The Lions improved to 5-1 with that win over the Buccaneers but now are playing a second straight road game and one where conditions will be a lot different than last week. That is a big disadvantage and during their four-game winning streak, Detroit has not faced an offense ranked higher than No. 14 in EPA and No. 16 in DVOA and the overall 5-1 record has been aided by playing a schedule ranked No. 28. Baltimore rebounded from its loss at Pittsburgh with a win against Tennessee in London last week and is back home for its first game in a month since the tough loss in overtime against the Colts. The defense has been underrated as the Ravens are No. 5 in overall EPA and No. 2 in overall DVOA with their strength being against the pass which is important here facing Jared Goff and going up against a banged up Lions backfield. Offensively, has been middle of the road and while Lamar Jackson struggles against pressure and blitzing, he faces a Detroit defense that has the third lowest blitz rate in the league. The Lions have a much improved defense but finally see a test after not seeing one in quite some time. 10* (458) Baltimore Ravens

This is a play on the CHICAGO BEARS for our Sunday Free Play. The Raiders had one of the most fortunate covers of the season as they got a late safety to win by four points as a three-point favorite and they have now won two straight games to improve to 3-3. Both of those wins were at home with the other win coming in Denver by a point and this team is a few played away from being 1-5 or potentially 0-6. Las Vegas comes in as a favorite once again, this time on the road and it is an overpriced number as the metrics of these teams are not far off. The Raiders are ranked No. 22 or lower in four of the six EPA categories and have an overall net EPA of No. 23. This offense has been dreadful and while facing a poor defense here, they have faced some bad ones along the way already. Chicago is coming off a tough loss against Minnesota despite outgaining the Vikings as the Bears lost the turnover battle 3-1 and dropped to 1-5. The big news is that Justin Fields had to leave the game and will be replaced this week by Tyson Bagent who was put in a bad spot last week. He fumbled on his first drive which led to a touchdown and then threw a late costly interception but was decent in-between. The good news is that he has had a week to practice with the starters so he will be more prepared against an equally bad defense. The Bears have a net EPA of No. 28 which again is not far off from that of the Raiders. Play (454) Chicago Bears

The NFL is off to another phenomenal start and the domination continues this week with a loaded slate! Matt has won in four of six weeks and he is 22-16 in the NFL YTD! Going back he is a POWERFUL 89-63-1 (+$19,940) in the NFL Regular and Postseason since the start of last season! FIVE Sunday Winners!

This is a play on the NEW ORLEANS SAINTS for our NFL Thursday Primetime Dominator. Jacksonville has won three straight games following a 17-point win over the Colts despite getting outgained 354-233 as it won the turnover battle 4-1 following a successful stint in London. Against Atlanta, the Jaguars won the yardage battle by only 13 total yards but benefitted from a 3-0 turnover margin that included a 61-yard interception returned for a touchdown. Two weeks ago, they caught the Bills in a perfect spot as they were the ones travelling prior to the game and Buffalo was coming off a big home win over Miami that had a lot of build up to it. Now the Jaguars are playing their first true road game since the season opener, a stretch of over five weeks and are doing in on short rest with a banged up quarterback. Trevor Lawrence is considered day-to-day with a knee sprain facing one of the best defenses in the league. New Orleans lost in Houston 20-13 despite a 430-297 yardage edge as it missed two field goals and turned it over on downs at the Houston 15 in the fourth quarter. The Saints are now 3-3 and have been carried by the defense that is ranked No. 3 in the NFL in EPA and ranked in the top ten both against the run and pass. Overall. They have a net EPA of No. 11 while the Jaguars are at No. 18. It has been a tough stretch with the schedule as four of their last five games have been on the road which has made up for not having yet played a team ranked in the top 16 which ends this week but the spot is a great one. 10* (312) New Orleans Saints

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS for our NFL Monday Primetime Dominator. The Cowboys are coming off a very humbling loss against the 49ers as they were never in the game in the 42-10 defeat. This typically would be a great bounce back situation but the spot is not in their favor and the line is not either. The defense was first across the board in EPA entering the game last week but fell a few spots after allowing 421 total yards including a season high 251 yards through the air and now faces an even more lethal offense. Injuries are piling up on that side of the ball and will be affected here. Their own offense did not crack 200 yards and Dallas has fallen to No. 19 in EPA offense and this has come against a schedule that is ranked No. 26. The Chargers got to .500 with a pair of wins over Minnesota and Las Vegas and they have been in a position where they could be 4-0 as one of the losses came against the Dolphins by just two points and the other coming against Tennessee in overtime. Los Angeles is averaging 27.5 ppg on 388.8 ypg and is ranked No. 7 in offensive EPA and it gets Austin Ekeler back this week after him missing the last three games. The defense has been hit or miss but it had to do with it has faced as the Chargers were lit up against dynamic offenses in Miami and Minnesota but were strong against Tennessee and Las Vegas with Dallas falling in the middle of those two groups. Los Angeles is coming off its bye which has allowed other pieces to get more healthy and this is a big one to get over .500 before travelling to Kansas city next week. 10* (278) Los Angeles Chargers

This is a play on the TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. Detroit came into the season with high expectations with relatively low Super Bowl odds and so far, so good as the Lions are 4-1 with the only loss coming in overtime against Seattle. They are a public darling with the line dictating that and this is where we can say they are overvalued despite playing a team many think is a fraud. Detroit is top ten in both offensive and defense EPA with an overall net EPA of No. 7 against a No. 20 ranked schedule. The offense did not miss receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown last week against the Panthers, and he will likely remain questionable the rest of the week but will not be 100 percent going up against a strong defense. Tampa Bay is coming off its bye week following a 3-1 start with the lone loss coming against undefeated Philadelphia. The Buccaneers have played a top half schedule overall and while facing the No. 7 ranked EPA team, they are ranked No. 8 in overall EPA. The defense is one of the top teams in the league at No. 7 in EPA being solid both against the run and pass but the wild card is on the other side. The running game has left a lot to be desired but Baker Mayfield is quietly going about his business with a 101.5 passer rating behind the No. 7 ranked offense in passing EPA and as long as his receiving corps remains healthy, it is one of the best in the NFL. Upset alert. 10* (268) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is a play on the NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. This is the time of year we start buying low on teams and the Patriots could not be any lower right now. They are coming off consecutive blowout losses by a combined 72-3 and Bill Belichick suffered his worst loss as a coach two weeks ago and backed it up with his worst home loss of his coaching career. The bad news is New England has fallen into the bottom spot in EPA offense but the Patriots have faced the No. 2 and No. 3 ranked defenses in EPA the last two games and now they go up against the No. 22 ranked team in defensive EPA. Despite some personnel losses on defense, New England is still a top ten team defensively and all of this have come by playing the No. 2 ranked schedule in the league. Las Vegas is coming off a Monday night win over Green Bay and it was closing in on another loss based on a coaching decision to kick a field goal instead of going for a fourth and one that would have sealed the game. The Raiders snapped a three-game losing streak with the victory and come in favored again with the line now hitting a key number after opening at 1.5. Offensively, the Raiders have the same ranking in offensive EPA at No. 22 and they still have yet to crack the 100-yard mark in rushing. Underdogs coming off a loss by 20 or more points and playing a favorite coming off a primetime game have covered at a 62 percent clip since 1990. 10* (269) New England Patriots

This is a play on the MINNESOTA VIKINGS for our NFL Divisional Game of the Month. A regression from Minnesota was expected but probably not to this extent. The Vikings fell to 1-4 following a loss to Kansas City with all four losses coming by one possession after going 11-0 last season in one possession games. The first came against Tampa Bay where they dominated the yardage and the other three came against all likely playoff teams but the one common theme in all of them have been turnovers with Minnesota now -9 in turnover margin. After being at the top of the Luck Ratings last season, the Vikings are now No. 31 and this is the get right spot despite the loss of Justin Jefferson. Chicago is coming off its first win in about a calendar year as it defeated Washington by 20 points, snapping a 14-game losing streak going back to October 24 of last season. The Bears moved ahead of the Broncos by one spot into No. 31 in defensive EPA despite allowing 378 yards to the Commanders last Thursday. This is a bad roster with a lot of issues and while quarterback Justin Fields is being lauded for his four touchdown passes, he barely completed 50 percent of his passes against one of the worst passing defenses in the league. Here, we play against teams off a double digit win as a road underdog of six points or more. This situation is 36-12 ATS (75 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (255) Minnesota Vikings

This is a play on the CINCINNATI BENGALS for our NFL Supreme Annihilator. This is another buy low spot with the Bengals returning home following their best game of the season in a 34-20 win in Arizona to halt their 1-3 start. We cannot forget Cincinnati started 0-2 last season and went on a run to the AFC Championship and it revolves around Joe Burrow. He clearly came into the season not close to 100 percent and is coming off his best game so far and while it can be argued that it was against the lowly Cardinals, the eye test showed that he looked different from the previous four games physically. This is a great spot to keep the momentum going with a bye week on deck and the public still weary based on this line. Seattle is coming off its bye week following three straight wins but it comes with an asterisk. The last two victories came against the Panthers and Giants, arguably the two worst teams in the league with the first coming against the Lions on the road in overtime thanks to Detroit not seeing the ball after regulation. Overall, the Seahawks have played the No. 29 ranked schedule so a 3-1 record is not surprising yet they still have a bottom half of the league defense and are ranked No. 21 in defensive passing EPA which could mean another big game from Burrow. Despite a week off, the secondary remains banged up and on the other side, their offensive line is still a problem with injuries. 10* (258) Cincinnati Bengals

This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our NFL Star Attraction. This line opened at -3 prior to the San Francisco beatdown of Dallas and quickly shot to -4.5 and then -5 and it continues to climb reaching close to a touchdown in most spots which is due to the Desean Watson uncertainty. No one is going to stand in front of this 49ers team from a betting standpoint as evidenced by the 94 percent of the money coming in with the majority of the public not even betting yet and that is where they will be. San Francsico has moved to the Super Bowl favorite and for good reason as it has scored 30 or points in all five games and eight straight games during the regular season going back to last season. Coming off that statement Cowboys win, this is the fade spot. Cleveland is 2-2 and coming off its bye week following a loss to Baltimore with Watson being a late scratch. The other loss came against Pittsburgh where it pretty much dominated but gave up two defensive scores and it brings in a tough matchup for the 49ers. Taking nothing away from the San Francisco start but it has played the second easiest schedule and faces the No. 1 ranked defense in EPA going up against its weakness which is the offensive line that is ranked No. 24 in the NFL. Brock Purdy has been unflappable but his pass protection will break down here and after three straight home games, the going will not be the same in this road environment. 10* (260) Cleveland Browns

This is a play on the DENVER BRONCOS for our NFL Thursday Primetime Dominator. Denver is coming off another tough loss as it was within a field goal against the Jets before a fumble return for a touchdown put the game out of reach. That was the third loss that was within a field goal with under a minute remaining as the game against Miami has been the only bad game this season. The Broncos record could be better but sitting at 1-4, the public does not want anything to do with team especially considering they are just one of three teams that has yet to cover a game this season. Denver is ranked No. 30 in the Luck Rankings that identify which teams results have been, in their case, unluckier, than their on-field performance indicates. Another factor playing into why Denver will not be a big play is the fact it has lost 15 straight meetings with Kansas City. The Chiefs escaped with a win in Minnesota to improve to 4-1 following an opening game loss against Detroit. While winning is clearly the objective, Kansas City has not been doing it in dominating fashion as only the win over Chicago was a runaway with the offense seemingly continuing to be a work in progress. Patrick Mahomes does not look confident with his receiving corps that has been inconsistent especially two of the top guys in Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Skyy Moore who have just 16 catches and 239 yards through five games. The injury to Travis Kelce cannot be downplayed even though he returned against Minnesota as playing on a short week is not ideal with any sort of lower leg injury. Kansas City has been favored by more than a touchdown in seven of the last nine meetings with Denver covering five of those including both last season and these divisional games find a way to be closer than expected the majority of the time. 10* (111) Denver Broncos

This is a play on the GREEN BAY PACKERS for our NFL Monday Primetime Dominator. Green Bay is coming off a blowout loss at home against Detroit last Thursday to fall to 2-2 on the season and while it heads west, it is working with extra time and that is important for another reason. Aaron Jones and Christian Watson both came back last week but were limited on snap counts and they will both be fully ready to go this week. The Packers basically had to abandon the running game against Detroit as it played from behind so both Jones and A.J. Dillon will be fresh and square off against a poor defense. Quarterback Jordan Love has regressed from his first two games but those were against excellent defenses in the Saints and Lions and the Raiders come in with a defensive passing EPA of No. 28 and an overall defensive EPA of No. 28 as well. Las Vegas lost to the Chargers for its third straight defeat following a fortunate opening game victory over Denver. This would normally be good take based on the streak and playing at home but the Raiders have an unfavorable opposite situation as well as a roster that is not on the same level and pretty banged up. Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo missed last week with a concussion but has gone through protocol and will return but it is not a huge upgrade as he has struggled. He has an 81.4 passer rating with a 5:6 TD:INT ratio. The rushing game has been non-existent as the Raiders are ranked in rushing EPA at No. 30 and the Packers defense is good enough to keep that down. 10* (475) Green Bay Packers

This is a play on the NEW YORK JETS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. It has not been the start the Jets anticipated as they have lost three straight games following an opening win over Buffalo following the injury to Aaron Rodgers. No one wants a part of backing this team but they have played well the last two games and finally catch a break in the schedule as New York has played the No. 1 ranked schedule. Zach Wilson has taken a lot of heat but he has faced some potent defenses, three of which are ranked in the top five in passing EPA as well as facing the Patriots before they got banged up. Now he goes up against the No. 32 ranked defense in passing EPA and while he has felt the pressure, he will not here as Denver has an 18.5 percent pressure rate which is seventh lowest in the league. The Jets will be able to run as well against the No. 29 ranked rushing EPA defense. Denver is another team no one wants to back and it will be getting more love than it should this week. The Broncos escaped last week as they rallied against the Bears defense for their first win but now they square off against a much stronger defense. The offensive numbers have been surprisingly good but that comes with who they have faced as they have gone against defenses ranked No. 26, 27, 28 and 31 in defensive EPA. Here, we play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 after a two-game road trip, in weeks 5 through 9. This situation is 21-3 ATS (87.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (469) New York Jets

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES RAMS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. The Rams come in as a significant home underdog for a quality team and while a 2-2 record might not say that, but they are underrated. Five teams are in action this week that are ranked in the top ten in offensive rushing EPA, offensive passing EPA and overall offensive EPA, which are the Bills, Dolphins, Cowboys, 49ers and the fifth being the Rams as they are No. 4, No. 7 and No. 6 respectively in those categories. This has come against the No. 4 ranked schedule in the league and Matthew Stafford could be in for a day. He faces an Eagles defense that is No. 18 in passing EPA and this have come against three below average quarterbacks and Kirk Cousins as the Philadelphia secondary has underperformed and is banged up. Philadelphia is 4-0 on the season but are not dominant and the numbers prove that. The Eagles are No. 5 in offensive EPA but No. 14 in passing as they have relied on their rushing game. Defensively, they are No. 16 overall with a net EPA ranked No. 10 which is just two spots ahead of the Rams. Philadelphia has played the No. 26 ranked schedule and factoring into it all is it remains No. 1 in the NFL Luck Rankings. The Eagles are coming off a hard fought division game and now head west in a tough situation. Here, we play against favorites outgaining their opponents by 50 or more ypg, after gaining 375 or more total yards in three consecutive games. This situation is 38-12 ATS (76 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (468) Los Angeles Rams

This is a play on the ATLANTA FALCONS for our NFL Supreme Annihilator. Atlanta is coming off a pair of poor performances against Detroit and Jacksonville as it managed only 13 points total but it was totally taken out of its gameplan in both games. The Falcons were forced to abandon the run as combined they threw the ball 25 more times than they ran it. Part of that was due to playing catch up and facing two defenses with strong rushing defenses. That changes this week. The Texans are ranked No. 30 in defensive rushing EPA and what makes this even worse is that their last three games have come against Pittsburgh, Jacksonville and Indianapolis which are ranked No. 25, 32 and 26 respectively in offensive rushing EPA. This could be the breakout game for Bijan Robinson who has been really good already with 318 yards on 6.0 ypc. The Texans have won two straight games and are starting to get that public backing including here as this line has dropped under a key number. The big story in Houston has been the play of rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud who has already set some rookie records including most pass attempts without throwing an interception and his quarterback rating of 100.6 is impressive for a rookie. While not known for a strong defense, Atlanta has fared well against the pass at it is No. 11 in passing EPA. Here, we play against road underdogs or pickems with a winning percentage between .450 and .550 coming off an upset win by 14 points or more as an underdog. This situation is 38-11 ATS (77.6 percent) since 1983. 10* (454) Atlanta Falcons