Sports Picks & Predictions

This is a play on the NEW YORK JETS/CLEVELAND BROWNS UNDER for our NFL HOF Game Totals Dominator. We get started Thursday with the first preseason game of the season and there is simply no matchup breakdown as this is purely a situational play that has cashed for years. The Hall of Fame Game is typically a very low scoring game as in this stage of the preseason, the defenses are a step ahead of the offense. Nine of the last 14 Hall of Fame games have stayed under the total, including seven of the last 11 and while those past outcomes do not predict future results, it does show how defenses are more in sync early in the preseason. Going back to 1984, only seven of the 36 HOF games have eclipsed 40 points and a lot of that is due to fluke plays. This includes an interception return for a touchdown taking place in five of the last seven games that have gone over 40 points so simply avoiding that gives us a great opportunity to cash in a low scoring game. 16 of the 36 games have seen totals of 27 of less points scored. Seven years ago, the Hall of Fame game was canceled because of poor field conditions and of course 2020 was canceled because of COVID so those are not part of the averages. According to the collective bargaining agreement between the NFL and its players association, teams cannot hold training-camp practices more than two weeks before their first preseason game, so preparation has been limited on both sides. That affects the offenses more than the defenses and we will once again see the defenses have the advantage. Additionally, with this being the first game, offensive starters will see limited if any action. 10* Under (101) New York Jets/(102) Cleveland Browns

This is a play on the LAS VEGAS RAIDERS/JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS UNDER for our NFL HOF Game Totals Dominator. We get started Thursday with the first preseason game of the season and there is simply no matchup breakdown as this is purely a situational play that has cashed for years. The Hall of Fame Game is typically a very low scoring game as in this stage of the preseason, the defenses are a step ahead of the offense. Nine of the last 13 Hall of Fame games have stayed under the total, including seven of the last 10 and while those past outcomes do not predict future results, it does show how defenses are more in sync early in the preseason. Going back to 1984, only seven of the 35 HOF games have eclipsed 40 points and a lot of that is due to fluke plays. This includes an interception return for a touchdown taking place in five of the last six games that have gone over 40 points so simply avoiding that gives us a great opportunity to cash in a low scoring game. 16 of the 35 games have seen totals of 27 of less points scored including seven years ago when Pittsburgh and Minnesota tallied just 17 points combined and the last two have seen 24 and 19 points. Six years ago, the Hall of Fame game was canceled because of poor field conditions and of course 2020 was canceled because of COVID so those are not part of the averages. According to the collective bargaining agreement between the NFL and its players association, teams cannot hold training-camp practices more than two weeks before their first preseason game, so preparation has been limited on both sides. That affects the offenses more than the defenses and we will once again see the defenses have the advantage. Additionally, with this being the first game, offensive starters will see limited if any action. 10* Under (101) Las Vegas Raiders/(102) Jacksonville Jaguars

This is a play on the OVER for our MLB Thursday Totals Dominator. We are backing a rare total for Game Four between the Yankees and Astros. The first three games of this series have gone under the total but we have a good situation tonight for the bats to break out as this is the first time the offense has seen each starting pitcher a second time. The Yankees led the majors in runs scored during the regular season but have managed just three over their last 20 innings and have stranded a ton of runners. Houston has scored only seven runs in this series but finished the regular season third in runs scored so the Astros are due. Masahiro Tanaka pitched a gem in Game One, allowing just one hit and no runs in six innings. Over his last eight starts, he has just four quality outings. Zack Greinke posted a quality outing but did allow three runs over six innings that included a pair of home runs. He has been very inconsistent of late with a 4.47 ERA over his last eight starts. In his career in the postseason, he is 3-4 with a 4.03 ERA. We've only seen one specific playoff rematch between starting pitchers in these playoffs so far which was St Louis/Atlanta Game Five with Jack Flaherty and Mike Foltynewicz squaring off after doing so in Game Two as well. The under came through in the first meeting and 14 runs were scored in the rematch. 10* Over (919) Houston Astros/(920) New York Yankees

This is a play on the DENVER BRONCOS/ATLANTA FALCONS UNDER for our Thursday NFL Totals Dominator. The Hall of Fame Game is typically a very low scoring game as in this stage of the preseason, the defenses are a step ahead of the offense. Eight of the last 11 Hall of Fame games have stayed under the total, including five of the last seven and while those past outcomes do not predict future results, it does show how defenses are more in sync early in the preseason. Going back to 1984, only seven of the 33 HOF games have eclipsed 40 points and a lot of that is due to fluke plays. This includes an interception return for a touchdown taking place in each of the last five games that have gone over 40 points so simply avoiding that gives us a great opportunity to cash in a low scoring game. The 33 games have seen an average of just over 31 ppg and 14 of the 33 have seem totals of 27 of less points scored including four years ago when Pittsburgh and Minnesota tallied just 17 points combined. Three years ago, the Hall of Fame game was canceled because of poor field conditions and that problem was fixed going into last season. Dallas and Arizona did go over two years but it was just by 3.5 points. According to the collective bargaining agreement between the NFL and its players association, teams can't hold training-camp practices more than two weeks before their first preseason game, so preparation has been limited on both sides. That affects the offenses more than the defenses and we will once again see the defenses have the advantage. Additionally, with this being the first game, offensive starters will see limited if any action. A strong situation is in play also as we play the under in NFL Preseason non-conference games. This situation is 239-154 (60.8 percent) to the under over the last five years. 10* Under (241) Denver Broncos/(242) Atlanta Falcons

This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES/NEW YORK METS OVER for our MLB Tuesday Totals Dominator. The Mets and Phillies went under the total last night in the series opener but we expect the offenses to bounce back tonight and with a value number on top of it. It was a rare under for the Mets which have gone 15-5-2 to the over on the season thanks to an offense that is hitting .261, good for ninth in baseball, and to a pitching staff with a 5.35 ERA, which is sixth worst in MLB. The Phillies pitching has not been much better with a 4.42 ERA and their offense is right up there as well. The starting pitching for tonight sets up for a lot of runs as Zach Eflin has posted a 4.76 ERA and 1.53 WHIP over his last three starts including giving up eight runs in 10 innings over his last two starts, both on the road. Zack Wheeler has posted a 6.35 ERA and 1.54 WHIP overall and he allowed seven runs in 4.2 innings in his lone home stat against Washington. Philadelphia falls into a great totals situation where we play the over involving National League teams averaging 4.7 or more rpg going up a pitcher with an ERA of 5.70 or worse, with a bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game. This situation is 55-27 (67.1 percent) to the over the last five seasons. 10* Over (905) Philadelphia Phillies/(906) New York Mets

This is a play on the NEW YORK YANKEES/BOSTON RED SOX OVER for our MLB Saturday Totals Dominator. The Yankees dug themselves into a 5-0 hole last night and could not get out of it although they gave it their best and look to build on that tonight. They outhit Boston 10-8 but managed only four runs and the offense has a chance to break out in a big way on Saturday. Boston was unable to get to the Yankees bullpen last night but this offense remains red hot as the Red Sox have averaged 7.6 rpg over their last seven games which have all come at Fenway Park. They finished as the best hitting team at home in the American League and have a chance to tee off again tonight. Masahiro Tanaka had a solid run from mid-August to mid-September but he has struggled over his last two starts allowing eight runs over eight innings. One of those games came against Boston which has been his least favorite team to pitch against this season as he has posted a 7.58 ERA and 1.79 WHIP in four starts. The Yankees have scored 31 runs in their last four games when facing a left-handed starter and one of those came against David Price where he was tagged for six runs in 5.1 innings. This is another bad pitching matchup as Price has a 10.34 ERA and 1.91 WHIP in four starts against the Yankees which led baseball with 82 home runs against lefty pitching, nine of which were against Price. 10* Over (953) New York Yankees/(954) Boston Red Sox

This is a play on the OAKLAND A'S/NEW YORK YANKEES OVER for our MLB Total of the Year. After a pitching duel last night in Chicago, we should be in for some offense tonight from the Bronx. We all know about the Yankees offense and what it is capable of and it comes in blazing hot, averaging 8.2 rpg over its last six games and that with putting up two runs in the season finale with the starters seeing limited action. The Oakland bats have been firing since the end of August as it has averaged 6.4 rpg over its last 27 games. Oakland employed the bullpen approach once against the Yankees with Liam Hendricks starting and while the game stayed under the total, it was due to the Oakland bats being ice cold against J.A. Happ. Hendricks gets the call tonight and he will be just the fourth pitcher to start a postseason game after a regular season of no wins, according to the Elias Sports Bureau. He has been solid when starting with the bullpenning approach but now comes the biggest test of them all. Luis Severino counters for New York and while he has been great at home this season, most of that success came in the first half. He has a 5.47 ERA in his last five starts in Yankee Stadium. He dominated Oakland in his first start, but that was in May, and he was rocked for six runs in 2.2 innings in Oakland a month ago. There is no team in the postseason that has hit better on the road than the A's. Oakland leads all playoff teams in road hits, road homers, road slugging and scoring and it ranks second in road on-base percentage. They even set a Major League record by homering in 25 straight games on the road. Here, we play the over involving road teams where the total is 8.5 to 10 after a loss by two runs or less going up against an opponent after a combined score of 12 runs or more in four straight games. This situation is 32-9 (78 percent) since 1997. 10* Over (939) Oakland A's/(940) New York Yankees

This is a play on the CHICAGO BEARS/BALTIMORE RAVENS UNDER for our Thursday NFL Totals Dominator. The Hall of Fame Game is typically a very low scoring game as in this stage of the preseason, the defenses are a step ahead of the offense. Seven of the last 10 Hall of Fame games have stayed under the total, including four of the last six and while those past outcomes do not predict future results, it does show how defenses are more in sync early in the preseason. Going back to 1984, only seven of the 32 HOF games have eclipsed 40 points and a lot of that is due to fluke plays. This includes an interception return for a touchdown taking place in each of the last five games that have gone over 40 points so simply avoiding that gives us a great opportunity to cash in a low scoring game. The 32 games have seen an average of just over 31 ppg and 14 of the 32 have seem totals of 27 of less points scored including three years ago when Pittsburgh and Minnesota tallied just 17 points combined. Two years ago, the Hall of Fame game was canceled because of poor field conditions and that problem was fixed going into last season. Dallas and Arizona did go over last year but it was just by 3.5 points. According to the collective bargaining agreement between the NFL and its players association, teams can't hold training-camp practices more than two weeks before their first preseason game, so preparation has been limited on both sides. That affects the offenses more than the defenses and we will once again see the defenses have the advantage. Additionally, with this being the first game, offensive starters will see limited if any action. A strong situation is in play also as we play the under in NFL Preseason non-conference games. This situation is 238-154 (60.7 percent) to the under over the last five years. 10* Under (241) Chicago Bears/(242) Baltimore Ravens

This is a play on the CENTRAL MICHIGAN/WESTERN MICHIGAN UNDER for our CFB Wednesday Total Dominator. The MAC continues its weeknight run on Wednesday with rivals Central and Western squaring off with the loser out of the MAC West race. We are expecting a grind it out type of game which is something this series has not seen over the years. The Broncos will be without quarterback Jon Wassink who broke his collarbone last game and they will be starting Reece Goddard who has thrown three career passes. To say they will be about ball control is an understatement as we will see a heavy dose of the run, even more than usual which burns clock. Western has rushed for 2,018 yards as a team, led by Jarvion Franklin's 80.2 ypg and seven total touchdowns. The Chippewas are coming off a 56-9 victory at Ball St. during which everything seemed to fall their way as they put up 256 yards rushing, a season high, and the defense held the Cardinals to 208 total yards, the season low for a Chippewas opponent. That defense will have to step up again and because of the quarterback change, they will have a better idea of what is coming. Western Michigan is allowing 385.6 ypg on defense with a lot of those yards coming early in the season. The Broncos have allowed an average of 15.8 ppg over their last five games in regulation as we threw out the overtime points in that crazy Buffalo game and we can expect this defense to come up strong against an inconsistent Central Michigan offense. While the Chippewas put up 56 points last week, they averaged 15 ppg in their previous five games. Central Michigan has gone under in 11 of its last 12 games against winning teams while the under is 5-1 in the Broncos last six games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. 10* Under (305) Central Michigan Chippewas/(306) Western Michigan Broncos

Being Week Two, we have our first bounce back situations in play this week but considering both Cincinnati and Houston are coming off embarrassing Week One efforts, the Thursday night game is not in play. The Bengals are in a great spot as hone teams coming off a shutout home loss have covered 70 percent of the time in the last 33 instances but there is no way we would recommend laying a number this big as the line has gone from 3.5 to -7 in some spots. We will be going a contrarian route instead. Scoring a combined seven points in their season openers, we are catching a total that is lower than anticipated and while the over is typically a public play, the under is the consensus here. The quarterbacks will be under the microscope tonight and rightfully so after awful efforts last Sunday. Andy Daulton has been shut out once in his career, back in 2014 against the Colts, and it was a disaster of a game for him with a 55.4 QB Rating. He bounced back with a solid game against the Ravens and the offense managed 27 points. Deshaun Watson took over for Tom Savage in the second half last week and he was average and he now gets the nod on a short week but we think he will be just fine as he showed flashes of what he can do during the preseason. These teams have played each of the last three regular seasons and all three games stayed under the total and by a lot for that matter but all of those closing totals were 41 or higher. This adds to the contrarian angle as the under will be the recommendation from historians but we go against that as well. The Bengals have gone over the total in 20 of their last 27 games after scoring fewer than 15 points in their previous game including a 10-4 over mark under Dalton. 10* Over (101) Houston Texans/(102) Cincinnati Bengals

The Hall of Fame Game is typically a very low scoring game as in this stage of the preseason, the defenses are a step ahead of the offense. Seven of the last nine Hall of Fame games have stayed under the total, including four of the last five and while those past outcomes do not predict future results, it does show how defenses are more in sync early in the preseason. Going back to 1984, only seven of the 31 HOF games have eclipsed 40 points and a lot of that is due to fluke plays. This includes an interception return for a touchdown taking place in each of the last five games that have gone over 40 points so simply avoiding that gives us a great opportunity to cash in a low scoring game. The 31 games have seen an average of just over 31 ppg and 14 of the 31 have seem totals of 27 of less points scored including two years ago when Pittsburgh and Minnesota tallied just 17 points combined. Last year, the Hall of Fame game was canceled because of poor field conditions and that problem has been fixed going into this season. According to the collective bargaining agreement between the NFL and its players association, teams can't hold training-camp practices more than two weeks before their first preseason game so preparation has been limited on both sides. That affects the offenses more than the defenses and we will once again see the defenses have the advantage. 10* Under (241) Dallas Cowboys/(242) Arizona Cardinals

After going under the total in its first four games, Phoenix has gone over the total in each of its last five games and we are getting value going the other way tonight. Not only are we going contrarian because of the recent over run but we are catching a total that is the highest Phoenix has seen this season. Chicago has seen a range of totals between 154.5 and 169 and it has basically played at a contrarian level as it has gone over the total in five of six games when the number is 162 or less and it has gone under the total when the number is 163 or higher. The Sky have gone over the total in four of their last five games but again, that run fits the aforementioned parameters. Additional value comes with this total in that these teams played two weeks ago and that total was four points less than what they are getting tonight. Both Chicago and Phoenix are off to undesirable starts, their defenses cannot be blamed. The Sky are ranked No. 2 in the league in defensive shooting at 41.1 percent while the Mercury come in ranked No. 5 at 42 percent. Additionally, Phoenix is No. 1 in three point shooting at 26.5 percent while Chicago is No. 4 at 29.2 percent. While good offenses can overmatch solid defense depending on the matchups, neither of these offenses are very strong after Chicago was No. 1 and Phoenix was No. 3 in scoring offense last season. 10* Under (663) Chicago Sky/(664) Phoenix Mercury

The Warriors have steamrolled through the postseason winning all 10 games and all but three have gone over the total including both games in this series. We will take the bounce angle route here and take the under as the total has risen by 3-4 points depending on the outlet so we are getting some excellent value based on the recent results. The Spurs have gone over the total in all but three of their 14 playoff games so the over will be another popular play based on these results as well. The only way San Antonio can get back into this series is playing better defense and we have seen that defense play strong on numerous occasions in the postseason. San Antonio coach Gregg Popovich accused his team of basically quitting in Game Two with the blame going on the defense as they allowed the Warriors to shoot 56.2 percent from the floor including Golden St. to shoot 18-37 from long range. The Warriors are not as strong offensively on the road and if Kawhi Leonard can get back into the lineup, it will certainly be a big boost to the defense. The Under is 13-6 in the Warriors last 19 road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. 10* Under (723) Golden St. Warriors/(724) San Antonio Spurs

Over the last 12 editions of the Super Bowl, only one has surpassed the total that we are dealing with this year as Super Bowl XLVII between Baltimore and San Francisco saw 65 points scored. Of the first 50 Super Bowls, only eight have had 60 total points scored so history shows that we should be in for a lower scoring game than what the over/under is telling us. While history can tell us a lot, it cannot always predict the future and this number is big for a reason despite the Patriots brining in the No. 1 scoring defense in the NFL. As a comparison, the over/under for the NFC Championship Game between the Falcons and Packers closed at 59.5. both New England and Green Bay have very potent offenses so those totals were set based on the defenses and clearly the linesmakers do not trust the Patriots top ranked unit. New England played the easiest schedule in the NFL and faced very weak quarterbacks along the way. It shut down the Steelers and Ben Roethlisberger last week but the Pittsburgh offense was knocked off course with the LeVeon Bell injury. Prior to that, Russell Wilson put up 31 points against New England while Andy Dalton was the second best quarterback the Patriots saw in the 2016 regular season and they are the only team in the NFL yet to face a top-10 passer this season. Atlanta scored 540 points this season, tied for the seventh-most in NFL history and 71 points clear of the next-best team. No one has been able to stop the Falcons for the most part and with the Atlanta defense not very good to begin with, the Patriots will be able to move the ball as well. As long as we can avoid settling for redzone field goals, this could turn into a very high scoring Super Bowl. 10* Over (101) New England Patriots/(102) Atlanta Falcons

The scoreboard will be working on overload tonight in Boca Raton as two of the top offense square off. This is the highest total of all bowl games and for good reason as Western Kentucky is ranked No. 2 in scoring offense and No. 7 in total offense while Memphis is ranked No. 17 and No. 32 in those categories respectively. The defenses do not come close to those rankings so stopping the opposing offenses will be a challenge. Typically, we would look at the contrarian play here but digging deeper into the numbers show that the first over of the bowl season will hit. Western Kentucky has played only four games against teams ranked inside the top 50 in total offense and it was lit up by allowing an average of 45 ppg. Memphis meanwhile has faced five teams ranked No 50 or better in total offense and it allowed and even worse 48.4 ppg. These defenses are clearly skewed by the soft schedules they have faced so we see no reason that the offenses will be moving up and down the field all night. This is the highest total that each team has seen all season but the Hilltoppers and Tigers are a combined 5-0 to the over when the total was 70 or higher. Going back, the over is 12-3-1 in the Hilltoppers last 16 games against teams with a winning record while the over is 4-0 in the Tigers last four games against teams with a winning record. 10* Over (215) Memphis Tigers/(216) Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

Day one of bowl season had five games on Saturday with all five of those staying under the total, four of which stayed under by a touchdown or more. Now we get a matchup where we have strength on offense going up against the weakness on defense and this is the case on both sides which can translate to a lot of points. Tulsa brings in a very potent rushing attack as it averages 262.4 ypg on 5.1 ypc and it has outrushed all but three opponents this season. On the other side, Central Michigan has trouble stopping the run as it is allowing 161.3 ypg on 4.5 ypc so the Golden Hurricane should gash the Chippewas defense. The Central Michigan strength on offense is with its passing game behind quarterback Cooper Rush and while he tends to force throws at times, he has the ability to make big plays. Tulsa allows nearly 250 ypg through the air and has only seven interceptions so the Chippewas can stay in this game with their passing game should they trail by any significant amount. this Is the highest total that Central Michigan has seen but for good reason based on the matchup and for Tulsa, it has surpassed this number in seven of its last 10 games with two of those missing the over by just one point. 10* Over (213) Central Michigan Chippewas/(214) Tulsa Golden Hurricane

Atlanta and Tampa Bay have played some high scoring games recently and because of that, we are getting a good total to work with this Thursday. The Falcons have gone over the total in their last three games as well as seven of their eight games on the season so their games have certainly been entertaining. Tampa Bay is not far behind as it has gone over in two straight games and is 4-3 to the over on the season. The Buccaneers do not possess the same type of offense that Atlanta does as they have scored seven points twice as well as 17 points in another game. The defense has struggled, as has the Falcons defense, which are definitely concerns but the second meeting in a season is usually as advantage for the defenses. In divisional games in general, the defenses have an edge as going back, we play the under where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 in divisional games. This situation is 80-46 (63.5 percent) to the under the last five seasons. Atlanta falls into a subset where the same situation applies and one of the teams has gone over the total by 35 or more points in their last five games. This situation is 33-10 (76.7 percent) to the under since 1983. 10* Under (307) Atlanta Falcons/(308) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

We have seen the under come through the last two Thursday night games and we can expect to see another one tonight barring any fluky scoring. The Jaguars offense continues to struggle as they are averaging just 324 ypg and 19.5 ppg. There's talk that if Bortles can't turn things around, the coaching staff could bench him for backup Chad Henne. That would be an admission that Bortles isn't the long-term answer. The real problem is that the offensive line has been unable to open holes for the running game and will have problems against the Titans pass rush. Tackle Kelvin Beachum will likely play but is far from 100 percent. Tennessee is allowing just 338 ypg, good for No. 10 in the league. The Titans are putting up decent numbers on offense but are averaging just 20.9 ppg which is No. 21 in the NFL. Tennessee will have to play without guard Quinton Spain, who figures to be out for at least the next two games after being injured in the second quarter last Sunday. That could make it a bit easier for Jacksonville to neutralize DeMarco Murray, the NFL's third-leading rusher with 633 yards. The Jaguars defense has allowed more points than expected but a lot of that is blamed on the offense with turnover setting up a short field for opponents. Overall, Jacksonville is allowing just 325.2 ypg which is No. 9 in the league. Jacksonville went over in its last game while Tennessee has gone over the total in four straight games which sets up a great situation as we play the under involving home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points off two or more consecutive overs, in a game involving two teams averaging between 18 and 23 ppg. This situation is 61-28 (68.5 percent) to the under since 1983. 10* Under (101) Jacksonville Jaguars/Tennessee Titans

After a crazy three-overtime game against Texas St. to open the season where 110 points were scored, Ohio has seen its last seven games stay under the total. A lot of that has had to do with the opposition and the matchups involved but that changes tonight. The defense has allowed 21 points or less four times but one of those came against Gardner Webb of the FCS while the other three came against offenses that are ranked No. 127, No. 117 and No. 104 in total offense and No. 123, No. 114 and No. 111 in scoring offense. Toledo is a little better than those squads as the Rockets are No. 7 in the nation in total offense and no. 13 in scoring offense. Toledo tied a season low with 31 points scored against Central Michigan last week and while its own defense has been pretty solid, it too has faced some weak offenses along the way. Throw away the three points allowed against Maine of the FCS and the Rockets have given up an average of 25.7 ppg. Two of the best defensive efforts came against Arkansas St. and Fresno St. and they are ranked No. 1245 and No. 121 respectively in scoring offense. Going back, Toledo is 12-1 to the over after having won four of its last five games while the over is 5-1 in the Bobcats last six games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. These teams have not met since 2010 which is not a good thing for the coaching staff to try and prepare defenses which gives the offense on both sides a clear advantage. 10* Over (103) Ohio Bobcats/(104) Toledo Rockets

While we are going contrarian in the first total, we are going contrarian in this total as well. Because of these runs, this is where the value comes into play as linesmakers have to set the numbers based on those runs as the public is all over big streaks. Pittsburgh opened the season with a low scoring game against Villanova of the FCS but since then, the Panthers have gone over the total in six straight games. The offense has scored at least 36 points in every one of those games but the Panthers have faced off against some pathetic defenses along the way. The best stop unit they have faced was against Georgia Tech which is ranked No. 27 in total defense. The other five teams are ranked No. 53, No. 104, No. 61, No. 113 and No. 108. Virginia Tech comes into this game ranked No. 11 in total defense and no. 16 in scoring defense so Pittsburgh is going to be tested for sure. Pittsburgh relies heavily on the ground game and Virginia Tech is about as good as anybody in the country in stopping the run as the Hokies allow 103.6 ypg and 2.9 ypc. The Virginia Tech offense has played above average this season but it is skewed a bit based on the competition and venue. The Hokies have played only two road games and managed to score just 17 points against an awful Syracuse defense and 34 points against an average North Carolina defense in hurricane conditions. The Hokies have gone under in six straight ACC road games while the Panthers are 6-2 to the under in their last eight games following a bye week. 10* Under (107) Virginia Tech Hokies/(108) Pittsburgh Panthers

The Cubs suffered a 6-0 loss last night which is the third time they have been shutout in the postseason but we expect that to change tonight. We are not going to be laying a big price on the road however as it is undeserved at this point based on the starting pitching as we figure both offenses have the advantage tonight. Arrieta has been struggling over his last few starts as he has a 7.31 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in his last three games and a big reason for this is the time off between starts. He has had 12 and 8 days of rest before his first two postseason starts and he will be pitching on eight days' rest again tonight. All of these starts have been on the road but tonight presents a bigger challenge. Those first two postseason starts took place in California and now he will be pitching in very cold weather with the gametime temperature expected to be in the low 40s. He pitched in similar conditions against the Mets in the playoffs last year and was lit up. Trever Bauer lasted just two-thirds of an inning in his last start because of his lacerated pinkie finger on his throwing hand and the Indians are hoping it has healed enough not to be an issue again tonight. He has really struggled since early September as he has posted a 6.94 ERA over his last seven starts and the best part for Chicago is that Andrew Miller tossed 46 pitchers last night and will be limited tonight. After the Cubs were shutout last night, we can expect a big bounceback opportunity tonight. 10* Over (953) Chicago Cubs/(954) Cleveland Indians

Both Green Bay and Chicago have seen their offenses struggle this season as they are ranked No. 17 and No. 31 respectively in points per game. The defenses are also both ranked in the latter half of the league so we have a good opportunity for the offenses to bust out. The Packers scoring output has declined in each of its last three games but as those games progressed, the defenses got better each time. Chicago meanwhile has scored more than 17 points only once this season which is pretty shocking considering it is ranked No. 7 in yards per game but part of the problem is down and distance as the Bears are ranked No. 28 in third down conversions and No. 30 in fourth down conversions. That has not been the problem for Green Bay which is ranked No. 1 in third down conversions at 49.3 percent. They have only 102 first downs which is tied for No. 26 and because of that, the offense does not have the ball much. The 104.3 quarterback rating for Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers in 17 career games against the Bears is the highest of the quarterbacks who have attempted at least 175 passes against Chicago in their careers. Chicago falls into a great over situation as we play the over involving teams that are averaging between 14 to 18 ppg going up against teams averaging between (18 to 23 ppg, after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 137-84 (62 percent) to the over since 1983. 10* Over (301) Chicago Bears/(302) Green Bay Packers

Toronto kept its postseason going for at least one more day and while it is in good shape to extend this series to a Game Six and head back to Cleveland, we are not thrilled with the number the Blue Jays are being asked to lay. That being said, the total is what we are going after today as the offenses have a chance to wake up after a slow start to the series. In total through four games, there have been just 17 runs scored so it comes as no surprise that all four of those games went under the total. We take the contrarian route here with this Wednesday total that actually seems to have some value in it. There is no denying this series could get awfully interesting now that Toronto has life and Cleveland is sending such a uniquely inexperienced arm out for Game Five. Ryan Merritt will be making just his second career Major League start and while his first one 19 days ago was pretty solid against the Royals, the magnitude of this one is a touch bigger. This is a game where the Blue Jays bats can wake up in potentially their final home game of the season. Marco Estrada is coming off a solid effort in Cleveland in his first start in this series and he has now allowed two runs or less in five straight starts. However, only one of those was at home and he has not been at his best here as he has a 5.03 ERA in his last 10 starts at the Rogers Centre. The over is 5-1 in his last six home starts while the over is 16-3 in the Indians last 19 games after batting .200 or worse over a five game span. 10* Over (903) Cleveland Indians/(904) Toronto Blue Jays

This is a play on the SOUTHERN MISS GOLDEN EAGLES/LSU TIGERS OVER for our Saturday Totals Dominator. This could be considered a contrarian totals play based on the fact that LSU has stayed under the total in each of its first five games this season and that is certainly part of it but additionally, the matchup calls for a quick paced game. The Golden Eagles are ranked No. 7 in the country in total offense with 531 ypg while averaging 318.7 passing ypg and 40.2 ppg. There were reports early in the week that Southern Mississippi senior quarterback Nick Mullens was uncertain about this game but he has been upgraded to probable so the offense should not miss a beat. The Tigers might have turned a corner in the first game under interim coach Ed Orgeron with 634 yards, a school record in SEC play, in a 42-7 win over Missouri. Both defenses are ranked pretty high as Southern Mississippi is No 16 while LSU is No. 21 but The Golden Eagles have played a very easy schedule while the Tigers have played no one with a pulse on offense. Southern Mississippi defensive coordinator Tony Pecoraro said the LSU offense may throw a few new wrinkles at them while offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson said he figures to see a base Tigers defense. LSU is 7-0 to the over in its last seven games after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game while the over is 5-2 in the Golden Eagles last seven non-conference games. 10* Over (151) Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles/(152) LSU Tigers

We won with the over in this game last night but it was not easy with the final run coming in at the top of the eighth inning. Game Two takes place this afternoon with what should have been the Game One starters and we can expect a lot less hits than the 20 that were banged out last night. David Price gets the ball for Boston and he had a pretty average season by his standards, posting a 3.99 ERA over 35 starts. He has always struggled against the Yankees and that was the case again this season as he posted a 7.89 ERA in five starts against them. Takes those out and his ERA drops to 3.41 in his 30 other starts and he closed the season by allowing three runs or less in 10 of his last 12 starts, the only two exceptions coming against New York. While the over has come in the majority of those games, a look at the opposing starting pitcher will explain why. Corey Kluber was given an additional day of rest and should be extremely fresh after having 11 days off with tossing just 60 pitches in his last start. He had a quad issue but after two bullpen sessions, he has been deemed healthy. Overall he had another great season and like Price, he is a strikeout machine as he finished No. 5 in the American League, one behind Price. Look for a solid pitching duel in this critical Game Two. 10* Under (955) Boston Red Sox/(956) Cleveland Indians

We were waiting on a status update of Carson Palmer before making a call on this game and as expected, he is more than likely now not going to play. That means Drew Stanton will be making his first start since 2014 and after a rough go of it last week in relief, we can expect to see a heavy dose of the running game from the Cardinals. They will not be taking many chances downfield unless they have to come from behind again which is unlikely in this matchup. The 49ers offense has been pretty offensive as they are ranked No. 29 in total offense and their scoring output has declines in each of their four games. Despite the three losses, the Cardinals defense has been potent as they are ranked No. 7 overall and it has been turnovers on the offensive end that have hurt them the most. Safety Tyrann Mathieu has played slot corner on just 11 percent of his snaps this season compared to 62 percent last season. He will be playing closer to the box where he can have more of a direct impact on plays. San Francisco cannot get the ball downfield so they will turn to Carlos Hyde who has been running the ball very well. San Francisco falls into a totals situation where we play the under after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games, versus division opponents. This situation is 85-49 (63.4 percent) to the under the last five seasons. Arizona also falls into a totals situation where we play the under where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points versus division opponents, off a division game. This situation is 78-39 (66.7 percent) to the under the last five seasons. Additionally, San Francisco is 8-0 under its last eight home conference games and 7-0 under its last seven games at home against teams averaging 375 or more ypg. Meanwhile the under is 6-0 in the Cardinals last six games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. 10* Under (303) Arizona Cardinals/(304) San Francisco 49ers

The ALDS between Boston and Cleveland does not start off with the pitching matchup as expected and we could see some fireworks for Game One. The two highest scoring teams in the American League square off and the home road splits are not affected at all as Boston was the highest scoring road team in the American League while Cleveland was the second highest scoring team at home in the junior circuit. The Red Sox have the highest-scoring offense in the Majors, while averaging 5.2 rpg in their season series against Cleveland and they send Rick Porcello to the hill who took the ace tag away from David Price this season. He has been solid all season with a 3.15 ERA over 33 starts and has been the beneficiary of great run support of 6.6 rpg including 6.1 rpg in 17 road starts. Porcello will make his third career start and ninth career appearance in the postseason where he is 0-2 with a 4.41 ERA in 16.1innings. Trevor Bauer makes the Game One start over Corey Kluber who is getting an extra day of rest because of a quad strain. Bauer posted a 3.30 ERA prior to the All Star Break, but has struggled in his last five starts with a 7.28 ERA. In his lone start against Boston this season, Bauer surrendered four runs on eight hits over five innings and going back, the over is 6-1 in his last seven home starts against teams with a winning record. Meanwhile, the over is 5-1-1 in the Indians last seven games against right-handed starters while the over is 10-4 in Porcellos last 14 road starts. 10* Over (935) Boston Red Sox/(936) Cleveland Indians

Two of the Sun Belt Conference favorites square off on Wednesday in what looks to be a very high scoring game. Georgia Southern is off to a 2-0 start in the conference with wins over South Alabama and UL-Monroe and both of those were very low scoring contests that stayed under the total by 24.5 points and 13 points respectively. Those came against two of the lowest scoring offenses in the country and while Arkansas St. has struggled on offense, it has gotten progressively better. The Red Wolves are 0-4 including an embarrassing loss last time out against Central Arkansas. This is their conference opener and while the offense has the ability to put up a good number of points, their defense has been real troublesome as they are allowing 36 ppg, which is ranked No. 107 in the country. Arkansas St. has struggled against the run especially and that is not a good sign against a powerful Eagles rushing attack. This is the lowest total Georgia Southern has seen this season and both teams have seen three of their four games stay under the number which sets up good value. We play the over where the total is between 49.5 and 56 involving teams that winless on the season and coming off a home loss. This situation is 46-17 (73 percent) to the over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, Arkansas St. is 8-0 to the over in its last eight games against teams average 4.75 or more ypc while under head coach Blake Anderson, the Red Wolves are 14-1 to the over against conference opponents. 10* Over (301) Georgia Southern Eagles/(302) Arkansas St. Red Wolves

This is a play on the TENNESSEE TITANS/HOUSTON TEXANS OVER for our Sunday Totals Dominator. This is a contrarian totals play as we have seen Tennessee stay under the number in its last two games by a combined 37 points and in the season opener that went over, it surpassed the number by just one point. Those results give us value with this total as it is down by a touchdown from the last two games. Houston meanwhile has stayed under the number in all three of its games and none have really been close to going over. The Texans were shutout last week in New England 27-0 despite getting actually outgaining the Patriots by two yards. They were done in by a 3-0 turnover disadvantage as the offense was able to move the ball at a steady pace but failed to sustain their drives. The defense did get gashed for 185 yards rushing on 39 carries (4.7 ypc) and while the defense has played at a high level overall this season, the loss of J.J. Watt cannot be overstated. The Tennessee offense has not produced as it should be as it is averaging just 14 ppg which is dead last in the league but the titans are No. 19 in total offense so they are moving the ball and have a chance to break out here. Tennessee has a great contrarian situation on its side as we play the over involving road teams that are averaging 17 or fewer ppg, after scoring 17 points or less in two straight games. This situation is 23-4 (85.2 percent) to the over the last five seasons. Additionally, the over is 7-0 in the Texans last seven games in October while the over is 7-2-1 in the Titans last 10 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. 10* Over (263) Tennessee Titans/(264) Houston Texans

This line opened at -2.5, got pushed up to -3.5 midweek and has settled back down to -3 which is right where it should be in a game that can go either way. We are getting value with the total however after both teams went under the number is their season opening games. The glaring comparison is with Chicago in that this total is lower than last week against Houston, one of the top ranked defenses in the NFL. This is a matchup where both quarterbacks could have massive games. Carson Wentz threw for 278 yards and two touchdowns in his NFL debut, completing 22 of 37 passes in a turnover-free performance, posting a 101.0 rating. Jay Cutler meanwhile was 16-29 for just 216 yards and a touchdown and one pick but as mentioned, he was facing a very strong defense and it takes a step down tonight. As a team, the Eagles held Cleveland to under 300 total yards of offense last week as they dominated the time of possession with nearly 40 minutes on their side. But Cleveland is Cleveland and yesterday the Browns managed 387 yards but 85 of those came on one play. Philadelphia will be without top cornerback Leodis McKelvin. On the other side, the Bears were pretty average against the Texans as Brock Osweiler completed 63 percent of his passes while allowing Lamar Miller to rush for over 100 yards. One of their biggest failings against Houston was the Bears failed to make Osweiler uncomfortable in the pocket and the Texans offensive line is much worse than the line of the Eagles so they will have trouble again. 10* Over (289) Philadelphia Eagles/(290) Chicago Bears

This total looks to be on the high side considering the meeting last year had the closing over/under at 50.5 but it has jumped up for a reason. After a second straight losing season, head coach Scott Shafer was let go at Syracuse and the school brought in Dino Babers from Bowling Green which looks to be a great hire to make some changes for the good. First and foremost, he brings in a fast paced offense, something that Syracuse has not implemented in quite some time. It was on display last week against Colgate as the Orange racked up 554 total yards and they should have put up more than 33 points but struggled a bit on third down. Granted, it was only Colgate but it was a very positive sign compared to last season when they managed only 426 yards in their opener against Rhode Island, a team that went 1-11 at the FCS level. They will be facing a tougher defense here for sure but moving the ball will not be an issue, especially at home where the Louisville defense will not have the crowd behind them. The Cardinals decimated Charlotte last Thursday 70-14 as they racked up 663 total yards and while they will not be matching those numbers this week, the offense will not be slowed down much. The Syracuse defense is at a disadvantage from a talent perspective, which does not help its case and side of the ball is expected to struggle all season. Both offenses play at a high pace with mobile quarterbacks so we should see some offensive fireworks come Friday night. 10* Over (303) Louisville Cardinals/(304) Syracuse Orange

Low scoring games are frequent in the NFL preseason for obvious reasons as defenses tend to be playing far ahead of the offenses and we will take advantage of that here in what is the highest total of the Week One schedule. While teams typically have no clue what they will have coming at them in the first preseason game, the Saints and Patriots will be more familiar than most after practicing together this week, the fourth time in six years they have done so in the preseason. After back-to-back 7-9 seasons, Saints head coach Sean Payton promised players it would be a more demanding camp, and he has delivered with longer sessions and several full-contact drills. That helps the defense get more prepared and after a dreadful season last year from that unit, it has taken a lot of the early emphasis in training camp. The defense continues to show improvement and going against the Patriots only seemed to back what had been seen at the beginning of training camp. Offensively, Drew Brees will play just one series or so and one thing to expect is the Saints to try to establish the run in the game, running back Mark Ingram said. On the other side, we will not be seeing much of Jimmy Garoppolo or Tom Brady as a vanilla offense is expected from New England. These teams met in the preseason last year and it was a high scoring game but it was not on opening week which is a big difference. Garoppolo had a big game against the Saints but with him starting the first four games this season, his action will be very limited. 10* Under (259) New Orleans Saints/(260) New England Patriots

We are going with the contrarian total based on the number itself as well as the season history, namely Washington. The Mystics and Sun both have poor defenses which would tend to make us believe that this should be a high scoring game but the offenses may not be able to take advantage. Both teams shoot just 41.5 percent from the floor so if that trend continues, touching this total will likely not happen. After opening the season with two unders, Connecticut has gone over the total in five of its last eight games but a lot of those came against teams with efficient offenses. The real contrarian kicker here though is the fact that Washington has gone over the total in all 11 games this season. However, some have been right near the total while two took overtime to push over so we certainly have the law of averages on our side. One of those overtime games came in this matchup back on May 21 where the total went over by just 3.5 points despite the extra session after regulation. 10* Under (653) Washington Mystics/Connecticut Sun

We are catching some significant value with this total as linesmakers have been forced to adjust it based on early season results. Because Chicago had the best offense in the WNBA last season, the Sky went over the total in 60 percent of their games and that offense is even better this season, leading Chicago to go over the number in four of six games including its last three. Washington meanwhile has one of the worst defenses in the league which has led it to go over the total in all six of its games. The value really shows on this side as the over/under has increased each game for the Mystics starting at 140.5 in their season opener and having a number tonight that is 25 points higher than that in some places. Another reason we are getting value is league based as only two teams currently have more unders than overs with the over coming in a combined 14 more times. In the season series last year, the under was 3-2 and would have been 4-1 if the number tonight was in play. The under is 4-0 in the Mystics last four games against teams with a losing straight up record while the under is 4-0 in the Sky last four games against teams with a losing straight up record. 10* Under (603) Chicago Sky/(604) Washington Mystics

We are going with some of the same reasoning and analysis for Sunday as after putting up 109 points in the first half Friday, Miami and Charlotte managed just 78 points in the second half. After putting up 123 and 115 points in the first two games in this series, the Miami offense disappeared for three straight games, scoring just 80, 85 and 88 points. To no surprise, the over came through in the first two games in Miami and the under cashed both times in the games in Charlotte. A return to Miami should see more offense again despite Game Five staying under and the total has been steadily on the decline the entire series going from 199 to 190 which is at its lowest point and that presents great value. Going back to the regular season, four of five games taking place in Miami surpassed the total while all five games being played in Charlotte stayed under the number. Going back, the over is 8-2 in the Hornets last 10 road games against teams with a winning home record while the over is now 10-1 in the last 11 meetings in Miami. 10* Over (727) Charlotte Hornets/(728) Miami Heat

After putting up 123 and 115 points in the first two games in this series, the Miami offense disappeared the last three games, scoring just 80, 85 and 88 points. To no surprise, the over came through in both games in Miami and the under cashed both times in the games in Charlotte while the last game also stayed under. The total has been steadily on the decline the entire series going from 199 to 198 to 196.5 to 194.5 to 194 and now the total is at its lowest and by a lot. We lost with the over in Game Five and we are going with it again here despite the fact that the first two games in this series in Charlotte stayed below the number. The Hornets offense, while efficient in the recent victories, is not the same unit that we are accustomed to and I think we see it return to form heading home. After averaging 11.1 three-pointers and 22.4 assists in the season's second half, Charlotte saw those averages sliced to 4.5 and 14.0, respectively, in Games Three and Four. The Miami offense has also fallen off after those first two games and we can expect the Heat to try and push the ball more as their halfcourt offense has been dismal. 10* Over (709) Miami Heat/(710) Charlotte Hornets

After putting up 123 and 115 points in the first two games in this series, the Miami offense disappeared the last two games in Charlotte, scoring just 80 and 85 points. To no surprise, the over came through in both games in Miami and the under cashed both times in the games in Charlotte. A return to Miami should see more offense again and the total has been steadily on the decline the entire series going from 199 to 198 to 196.5 to 194.5 and now the total is at its lowest tonight which presents great value. Going back to the regular season, all four games taking place in Miami surpassed the total while all four games being played in Charlotte stayed under the number so the postseason is keeping the trend alive. A main factor has been the Miami offense at home and the Hornets defense on the road as the Heat are shooting 48.8 percent on the season at home while averaging 104 ppg and on the flip side, the Charlotte defense has allowed opponents to shoot 46.2 percent from the floor while giving up 103 ppg. Charlotte has gone over the total in seven straight games prior to the last two contests and going back, the over is 5-0 in the Hornets last five road games. Meanwhile the over is 19-7 in the last 26 meetings in Miami. 10* Over (575) Charlotte Hornets/(576) Miami Heat

The Blazers won on Saturday to make this a series again after getting beat by 20 and 21 points in Los Angeles. While they will try and even up the series tonight, we are concentrating on the total where we are getting a ton of value based on the first three outcomes. The first three games of this series have gone under the total and we are catching the best line of them all as far as a game to go over. The total has shifted significantly as well, going from 210.5 in the opener to its current spot at 206. The last game saw just 184 points and that is making the jump from Game Three to Game Four the biggest thus far. Looking at numbers alone, both offenses are more than capable of putting up big numbers and the fact that the teams have not done it together in this series is a little surprising. Going back, the over is 5-2 in the Clippers last seven road games against teams with a winning home record while the over is 12-5 in the Blazers last 17 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. 10* Over (565) Los Angeles Clippers/(566) Portland Trailblazers

The first three games of this series have gone under the total and we are catching the best line of them all as far as a game to go over. The total adjustments have been minor as the first two games closed at 195 while Game Three closed at 194.5 so we are seeing a bucket difference from the opener which may seem insignificant to some but it still represents value. Toronto seized control of the series with wins in the last two games after dropping Game One and it will be up to the Pacers offense to get things going after scoring just 87 and 85 points in the two losses. Indiana had the same number of turnovers as field goals in the first half, 12, so it was clear that it was a far from efficient effort. In total, Indiana has stayed under the total in five straight games while Toronto has stayed under in four straight none of which have had a total this low so the contrarian play has value on it as well. 10* Over (545) Toronto Raptors/(546) Indiana Pacers

We had a good number in Game Two but it did not pan out but we are going at it again in Game three based on the same philosophy. This is a great example of taking advantage of line moves based on what happened in the previous game. We have flourished playing the bounce angle in the NBA playoffs in certain situations as overreaction from the last game is sometimes too much. It works with totals as well and we are seeing a big move in this one because of the result from the first two games. We are seeing a drop in this total of close to ten points from Game One based on the fact the total stayed under by 28 points in Game One and 34 points in Game Two. Both offenses have had their struggles as Dallas is shooting just 36.1 percent while Oklahoma City is hitting just 39 percent of its shots, the latter highlighted by Kevin Durant and his 26 missed shots. He no doubt will have a better game here as the Dallas defense is not as good as what may have been portrayed and neither is the Thunder defense for that matter. This is a rare number for both teams as of 168 total games, only 26 had closing totals of less than 200 so the value is tremendous. The over is 5-2 in the last seven road games for Oklahoma City against teams with a winning home record while the over is 6-2 in the last eight home games for Dallas against teams with a winning road record. 10* Over (533) Oklahoma City Thunder/(534) Dallas Mavericks

This is a great example of taking advantage of line moves based on what happen in the previous game. We have flourished playing the bounce angle in the NBA playoffs in certain situations as overreaction from the last game is sometimes too much. It works with totals as well and we are seeing a big move in this one because of the result from Game One. Dallas played one of its worst game of the season and one of its worst in postseason team history as its point total (70) and field goal shooting (29.8 percent) were franchise playoff worsts while the 38-point margin of defeat was the second worst all time in a Mavericks playoff game, topped only by the 43-point loss to the Los Angeles Lakers in Game One of a 1984 second-round series. Offensively, things cannot get much worse so that is in our favor and we all know what the Thunder are capable of doing on offense. The total in Game One closed at 206 and now we are seeing a drop of six points in some places which presents extreme value. Three of four regular season meetings went over the total and all those were set at 207.5 or higher. Going back, the over is 6-2 in the Mavericks last eight games against teams with a winning straight up record while the over is 15-6 in the Thunders last 21 games playing on one day of rest. 10* Over (519) Dallas Mavericks/(520) Oklahoma City Thunder

George Washington and Valparaiso square off for the NIT Championship on Thursday and the game has the potential to come down to the final possession as both have been playing at a high level. There is much better value in the total here with a lot of based on the number itself and also with the situation. Both semifinal games stayed under the total as both teams were playing at MSG for the first time and playing in a new arena can have effects on the offensive side but now both with a game under their belt here, the sightlines should be significantly better. Both teams shot an identical 42.6 percent from the floor on Tuesday and I expect both to be much better tonight. George Washington and San Diego St. had a closing total of 132.5 which stayed well below the total and while this number is slightly higher, it should be much higher. The total on Tuesday was based on the San Diego St. defense, one of the best in the country and while the Crusaders possess a good defense, it does not compare to that of the Aztecs. Valparaiso stayed under by seven points and this total is 16 points lower than its total against BYU and that is a huge and overaggressive swing. This is the lowest total the Crusaders have seen in 10 games and they have gone 6-3 to the over in nine games since. Going back, the over is 4-1 in the Colonials last five games following a straight up win while the over is 4-1 in the Crusaders last five games following an ATS loss. 10* Over (713) George Washington Colonials/(714) Valparaiso Crusaders

Orlando has gone over the total in each of its last two games but not by big margins. In the last game, the Magic went over by just four points while in the game prior to that, it took overtime for the total to be surpassed. Thy are right at 50 percent with their over/unders this season but we are getting a lot of value as this is just the third time this season that Orlando has seen a total of higher than 207. The Sixers have gone over the total in each of their last three games as the defense, which is bad to begin with, has been really bad by allowing 114, 121 and 129 points. Philadelphia has been more of an over team this season but by a slight margin and because of the recent run, the value is in its number as well. The Sixers have had larger totals than Orlando but not of significance. The first two meetings this season have seen a split with the over/under but the one game that went over would have stayed under had the total tonight been posted. The under is 13-3 in the last 16 games for Orlando against teams with a losing straight up record including 5-0 to the under against a team with a winning percentage below .400. Additionally, the Magic are 4-0 to the under this season as a road favorite. Meanwhile, the under is 8-2 in the Sixers last 10 games against teams with a losing straight up record. 10* Under (701) Orlando Magic/(702) Philadelphia 76ers

We are going contrarian with this total as we are getting exceptional value based on recent results from both sides. Oklahoma St. has gone under the total in 14 of 23 games this season including its last six games. The Cowboys do not push the ball as they are ranked near the bottom of Division I in possessions per game but the opposition has played a role in that as they have faced teams ranked 179th, 142nd, 227th and 271st of late while Kansas comes in ranked 113th in pace. The Jayhawks have gone under the total in 15 of 23 games this season including its last four games. They are coming off a game against fast paced Oklahoma and that game likely would have gone over if the Sooners did not shoot so horribly in the first half. Going back further, Kansas has gone under in nine of its last 10 conference games and the only one that went over was the first meeting at Oklahoma St. With Kansas getting blown out there, it will be up to return the favor so pushing the ball here is very likely and the Jayhawks score a ton here anyway, averaging 87.3 ppg at home including 85.6 ppg in conference games. The over is 11-5 in the Cowboys last 16 road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600 while the over is 9-3 in the Jayhawks last 12 Monday games. 10* Over (707) Oklahoma St. Cowboys/(708) Kansas Jayhawks

Both Atlanta and Sacramento are coming off wins last night and both put in solid defensive efforts which we should see a reversal tonight. The Hawks defeated Portland 104-98 and held the Blazers to 43.6 percent shooting from the floor including 29 percent from long range. Meanwhile, the Kings defeated the Lakers 112-93 as they allowed just 35.6 percent shooting including 16 percent from long range. Both defensive efforts were better than both season averages and now each team faces a much better offensive team as well as facing teams with a much higher pace. Sacramento is the fastest team in the NBA while Atlanta checks in as the 12th fastest. The teams also fall into the "90 Percent Guideline" where adding up the offensive shooting percentage and defensive shooting percentage from each team and both exceed 90 percent. The Hawks have gone under the total in three straight games while Sacramento has gone under the total in two straight games which gives us the contrarian value for this matchup. Going back, the over is 13-3 in the Hawks last 16 games against teams with a losing straight up record while the over is 8-2 in the Kings last 10 games against teams with a winning straight up record. 10* Over (707) Atlanta Hawks/(708) Sacramento Kings

The two semifinal playoff games went under the total which was due to the defenses not allowing hardly anything. While the offenses put up 37 and 38 points, those were against defenses that do not compare to what they will be facing here. Alabama comes in ranked 1st in scoring defense and 2nd in total defense while Clemson comes in ranked 16th in scoring defense and 6th in total defense and it needs to be noted that Oklahoma and Michigan St. did not rank inside the top 25 in either of those categories. I do expect Clemson to have more success on offense than Michigan St. did but the Tigers are not going to have a field day all night for sure. On the other side, Alabama will be facing a much quicker and more athletic defense and they will have their own troubles. Both teams fall into a great low scoring situation where we play the under for neutral field teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 in a game involving two teams outgaining opponents by 1.2 or more yppl in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences. This situation is 32-8 (80 percent) to the under since 1992. Clemson is 12-3 to the under in its last 15 games after outrushing opponent by 200 or more yards last game while going 10-3 to the under in its last 13 games against winning teams. Meanwhile, Alabama is 33-14 in its last 47 games against teams averaging 200 or more rushing ypg. The teams combined to go 12-6 to the under when the total was between 40 and 55 this season and we can expect that to continue here. 10* Under (151) Alabama Crimson Tide/(152) Clemson Tigers

These teams met here just over a month ago and we are seeing a total that is filled with value as it is three points less now based on recent results. The Seahawks have gone under the total in four straight games as the defense was outstanding in three of those games while the offense didn't show up in the loss to the Rams. The Vikings meanwhile have been an under team all season, staying below the total in 11 of 16 games including the last one on Sunday against the Packers that decided the NFC North. While the Seahawks have been playing at a high level of late, they have been unusually inconsistent and while they held Minnesota to just seven points and 125 total yards in that first meeting, the Vikings will have a better gameplan this time around. Minnesota has averaged 31.8 ppg on offense since that Seattle game. Going back, the over is 9-2 in the Vikings last 11 home games against teams with a winning road record while going 7-0 to the over in their last seven games against teams averaging 4.5 ypc or more. Meanwhile, the over is 5-1 in the Seahawks last six games against teams with a winning record while the over is 16-6 in their last 22 games coming off a win over a divisional rival as an underdog .This total has already come down two points from its opener which signals a defensive battle but I expect the opposite on Sunday. 10* Over (103) Seattle Seahawks/(104) Minnesota Vikings

This game has the look and the feel of an ugly low scoring game which some people prefer. It looks pretty attractive to me considering this total is relatively high for this matchup and has actually gone up slightly since opening. The offenses have put up a ton of points this season on both sides but those came against some very poor defenses and mismatches. Iowa comes in with the 21st ranked total defense while Stanford comes in with the 46th ranked total defense. The Hawkeyes play a base defense and play it very well as they are in the top 25 nationally in rush defense, total defense and scoring defense. Going back, the Stanford offense struggles the majority of the time against Big Ten defenses. The Stanford defense is not as good but the Hawkeyes offense is not as good as the numbers it has put up as it has faced five defenses ranked 100th or worse. I don't see them having much success here. Both teams fall into two great under situations. First, we play the under involving two teams from major conferences on a neutral field where the total is between 49.5 and 56 after having won 3 out of their last 4 games. This situation is 23-4 (85.2 percent) to the under the last 10 seasons. Second, we play the under where the total is between 49.5 and 56 in a game involving two teams with winning percentages of .800 or better in major bowl games played in January. This situation is 52-20 (72.2 percent) to the under since 1992. 10* Under (269) Iowa Hawkeyes/(270) Stanford Cardinal

Entering the Fiesta Bowl, Ohio St. comes in ranked 28th in scoring offense with 35.0 ppg while Notre Dame comes in 31st in scoring offense with 34.8 ppg. The defenses have been great on both sides, more so for the Buckeyes but this game has the feel that the offenses will be able to run the table. One big reason for this is the coaching as we have two great offensive minds and with so much time to prepare, it only adds to it. Starting with Notre Dame, its offensive balance (215.6 ypg rushing/256.3 ypg passing) has been an asset all season long and it can keep the Buckeyes defense off balance. One huge edge for the Fighting Irish offense is that Ohio St. is missing two senior starting defensive tackles as Tommy Schutt is out with an injury while Adolphus Washington has been suspended. Notre Dame running back could be back after missing the last game against Stanford which would be a big boost. On the other side, Ohio St. has been relying on the run but don't surprised to see Urban Meyer chance that here as air it our more as the injuries to the Notre Dame secondary makes it a huge weakness. While the Buckeyes have been a big under team this season, most of those took place at home and going back, they 8-1 to the over in their last nine games away from home against teams outscoring opponents by 10 or more ppg while going 11-2 to the over in their last 13 games with a total between 56.5 and 63. Meanwhile Notre Dame is 6-0 to the over in its last six games following an ATS loss. 10* Over (267) Notre Dame Fighting Irish/(268) Ohio St. Buckeyes

Prior to the two playoff games New Year's Eve, we have a solid matchup in the afternoon featuring Houston against Florida St. The Cougars were looking to crash the party but a loss at Connecticut knocked them out of any chance to think about a playoff berth. Still, they got a solid bowl against a solid opponent and while their offense has been potent, they will have a tough time here. Florida St. comes in ranked 16th in the nation in total defense and 5th in scoring defense and Houston has struggled against good defenses. It was held to 17 points against Connecticut and 24 points against Temple and those defenses are ranked 16th and 17th in scoring defense respectively. The Seminoles aren't going to scare anyone with their offense as taking out games against Texas St. and Chattanooga where they scored 59 and 52 points, their scoring averages drops from 32.3 ppg to 27.7 ppg which would put it 74th in the country. Houston typically is known for playing poor defense but the Cougars are 53rd overall and a very solid 20th in scoring defense, allowing just 20.5 ppg. This was a good one to wait out as the total has risen a couple points from opening. Both teams fall into a great low scoring bowl situation as we play the under in bowl games between teams from major conferences with winning percentages of .800 or better where the total is between 49.5 and 56. This situation is 46-16 (74.2 percent) to the under since 1992. 10* Under (257) Houston Cougars/(258) Florida St. Seminoles

This spread has shifted over a touchdown as Louisville has gone from a three-point underdog to a 4.5-point favorite which makes the side play unplayable at this point. The reason for the swing is because of Aggies quarterbacks Kyle Allen and Kyler Murray deciding to transfer out with Jake Hubenak taking over as the starter. While this hurts them to win and/or cover, it helps the under which has come down only three points. It is going to be difficult for the offense to get anything going as in his first season since transferring from Blinn College, Hubenak made four appearances and went 12 of 27 for 92 yards with one touchdown. Louisville played solid on defense this season and should prosper here. On the other side, the Aggies boasted a very strong defense as they finished 28th in points allowed and were exceptionally good against the pass, allowing just 161.2 ypg, good for 4th in the nation. They match up well here against a Louisville offense that did nothing from the start. The Cardinals problems stem from youth as the offense has used two true freshman tackles, a true freshman quarterback, three true freshman wide receivers, a redshirt freshman tight end and a redshirt freshman guard. It has been reported that during bowl practices, Louisville basically reinstalled its offense which is not a good sign for success. Louisville is 7-0 to the under in its last seven games away from home after outgaining opponent by 175 or more total yards in its previous game while the under is 6-2 in the Aggies last eight games following a straight up loss. 10* Under (253) Louisville Cardinals/(254) Texas A&M Aggies

This bowl, going back to the days of the Continental Tire Bowl and the Meineke Car Care Bowl, has produced some high scoring games and I project another one this season in the fifth edition of the Belk Bowl. It has been a mixed bag of over/unders for both NC State and Mississippi St. but the matchup between the two should produce some big offensive numbers. We have two exceptional quarterbacks taking the field today as the Wolfpack's Jacoby Brissett threw for 2,448 yards with 19 touchdowns and just four interceptions while the Bulldogs Dak Prescott threw for 3,413 yards with 25 touchdowns and also just four interceptions. Overall, NC State has scored 34 or more points in eight of its 12 games and while the defense has put up some solid numbers, a lot of that is who it played against. When facing good offenses, the defense yielded 45, 34 and 56 points and the Bulldogs can take advantage as they fall into that category. Their defense is not nearly as good however, especially of late as Mississippi St. gave up 31, 50 and 38 points over its last three games. Prior to that, the Bulldogs played very poor offenses. We should see some big plays from both sides and because of that, this relatively smaller than expected total won't be an issue. The over is 11-3-1 in the Wolfpack's last 15 games following an ATS loss while the over is 4-0 in the Bulldogs last four games following a straight up loss. 10* Over (251) NC State Wolfpack/(252) Mississippi St. Bulldogs

There have been a large number of shootouts in the early bowl games and we should see another starting out on Tuesday. We have contrasting styles on offense going against each other here in the Armed Forces Bowl and both units have excellent matchups against the opposing defenses. California brings in the 9th ranked offense in the country including ranking fourth in passing offense and while the Air Force defense has been solid overall, the Falcons have struggled against the pass, allowing 8.4 ypa away from home and they haven't been overly tested in those games. The Golden Bears are ranked 110th in total yards including 104th in rushing defense so Air Force will have no issues moving the ball and that sets up the possibility of big plays through the air. While they do not throw it much, the Falcons are ranked 2nd in the nation in yards per completion at 21.23. California has allowed a gaudy 261 ypg on 5.7 ypc on the ground away from home this season so we should see some big plays. Air Force has been a big over team this season, surpassing the total in eight of 12 games. California has been a surprising under team this season based on the stats but the totals have been inflated in a lot of cases. The Golden Bears are 22-7-1 to the over in their last 30 non-conference games while the Falcons are 20-7 to the over in their last 27 games after covering the spread in three of their last four games. 10* Over (241) Air Force Falcons/(242) California Golden Bears

12 of the first 18 bowl games have gone over the total but we should start Monday with a low scoring game in the Military Bowl from Annapolis. We have a few factors on our side as both are slower paced teams and both prefer to run the ball more than they pass it. That is a pretty obvious statement for Navy but Pittsburgh is more of a running team as they rush it close to 60 percent of the time. It is important to keep the running game going which will give the Panthers an edge, or remaining close to even in time of possession so they do not wear down. Giving up only about 21.3 ppg, the Midshipmen rank 26th in the nation in scoring defense and Pittsburgh is not far back, allowing 24.6 ppg. Both teams fall into the same situation where we play the under in the second half of the season involving teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 in a game involving two teams that are +/- 50 ypg in differential, in non-conference games. This situation is 44-14 (75.9 percent) to the under the last 10 seasons. The teams are a combined 8-4 to the under when the total is between 48.5 and 55 while Navy is 25-8 to the under in its last 33 games against averaging 2 or more timer possession minutes while Pittsburgh is 27-11 to the under in its last 38 games away from home following a straight up loss. 10* Under (237) Pittsburgh Panthers/(238) Navy Midshipmen

Seven of the first 10 bowl games going into Thursday have gone over the total but the first game on Saturday has the potential to be a snoozer. When you think Marshall, you typically think offense but that wasn't the case this season as the Thundering Herd averaged 401.3 ypg which was 64th in the nation and while they ranked 43rd in scoring offense, they will be tested here. Connecticut allowed just 352.3 ypg which was 34th in the nation and it allowed only 19.8 ppg, good for 16th lowest. The Huskies held some prolific scoring teams to season lows and we should see another strong effort here. On the other side, the Huskies averaged just 318.4 ypg and 17.8 ppg, 119th and 118th respectively in the country. They scored more than 20 points only three times and will face a Marshall defense that allowed just 372.3 ypg and 18.4 ppg, 47th and 13th respectively. That unit is good enough to keep Connecticut in check for sure. We are seeing a low total here but it is for good reason and should prove to not be low enough. Here, we play the under in the second half of the season involving teams (Connecticut) where the total is between 42.5 and 49 that are averaging between 4.8 and 5.6 yppl going up against teams allowing between 4.2 and 4.8 yppl, after being outgained by 125 or more total yards last game. This situation is 53-22 (70.7 percent) to the under since 1992. The under is 10-1 in the Huskies last 11 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points while the Under is 6-0 in Thundering Herd last 6 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points while the under is 6-0 in the Thundering Herd's last six games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points. 10* Under (225) Connecticut Huskies/(226) Marshall Thundering Herd

This has the potential to be one of the higher scoring games even though we have already seen our share of offensively dominated matchups. Middle Tennessee averages 458.7 ypg and 34.3 ppg which are 30th and 34th in the nation respectively and it is coming off a pair of high output games to close the season. The defense allowed just seven points in those games but they were against non-bowl teams and while the stop unit has allowed a respectable 25.1 ppg, the Blue Raiders have allowed 41 ppg against bowl teams. Western Michigan can certainly take advantage as it averages 480.9 ypg and 35.3 ppg, which are 22nd and 27th in the country respectively. They were held in check only a few times this season but those came against some elite defenses. The Broncos defense played poor down the stretch and overall they ranked 78th in total defense and 77th in scoring defense. The game features some of the top receivers in the country you have never heard of. Western Michigan's Corey Davis and Daniel Braverman have over 1,200 yards receiving each this season while Middle Tennessee's Richie James and Ed Batties have combined to catch 177 passes for 2,180 yards and 19 touchdowns this year. Middle Tennessee falls into a situation favoring a high scoring game as we play the over in the second half of the season involving teams that average 440 ypg, after outgaining their opponent by 175 or more total yards in two consecutive games. This situation is 67-33 (67 percent) to the over since 1992. 10* Over (221) Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders/(222) Western Michigan Broncos

This total has come down slightly but we should be in for a pretty vanilla game from each offense which squares off against pretty solid defenses. Neither team has played a ton of potent offenses but both of these units fall into the same category of what they both faced this season. Akron is ranked 97th in total offense while Utah St. comes in only slightly better at 91st and as far as points, both are in the lower half as well. On the other side, the defenses are clearly the better units as the Zips are ranked 17th in total defense while the Aggies are 22nd which is the main reason this total is as low as it is. Akron linebacker Jatavis Brown led the MAC in sacks with 10.5 and tackles for loss with 17.5, while leading the team in tackles at 108. For Utah St., linebackers Kyler Fackrell and Nick Vigil both made first-team all-MWC, and Vigil leads the Aggies with 140 tackles and 12.5 tackles for loss. Utah St. quarterback Chuckie Keeton is back but he is far from the same start quality quarterback from a couple years ago. He came back for the final two games and once again looked really shaky down the stretch as was just 34-of-72 for 352 yards with only one touchdown and one interception. Akron has gone under in its last six non-conference games away from home while Utah St. has gone under in six of its last seven December games. 10* Under (213) Akron Zips/(214) Utah St. Aggies

This has the potential to be a shootout as these offenses are two that are capable of big plays. Combined, they average 77 ppg which shows the linesmakers are keen on these defenses and there is no reason to be. The offenses are both ranked in the top 40 in offensive efficiency and the end of the season saw even greater numbers. Western Kentucky has averaged 52.3 ppg over its last three games while South Florida has averaged 51 ppg over the same stretch with two of the three games for each team coming against other bowl teams. On the other side, the Hilltoppers are ranked 60th in total defense while the Bulls are 37th in total defense so while both are above average, neither are dominant enough to hold down the opposing offenses. This total is the second highest of the season for the Bulls but the last one easily went over and as for Western Kentucky, this is on the low side and for the season, the Hilltoppers have gone over the total in nine of 12 games when the over/under is 62 or higher. The good thing is that this is an early bowl game so there is not a ton of time off which can often hurt an offense. Western Kentucky is 13-4 to the over after scoring 31 or more points in two straight games while South Florida is 5-2 to the over after scoring 40 or more points. 10* Over (211) Western Kentucky Hilltoppers/(212) South Florida Bulls

We have seen some pretty dull Thursday night games the last couple months as of the last eight games, seven have stayed below the total. The only one that went over the number was the Green Bay/Detroit game because of that Hail Mary which we were certainly fortunate to cash. While Tampa Bay and St. Louis do not scream offense when you think about them, the matchup on both sides should provide the offenses a boost. A key is actually the running game on each side as Todd Gurley is coming off a monster game and Doug Martin is having a great bounce back season. The Rams average 4.9 ypc while the Buccaneers average 4.8 ypg and those rushing attacks will open up the passing game. Last week, the Saints defense held the Buccaneers to 17 points and 291 yards, both the lowest against the Saints all season so that is a good indicator of a bounceback. In what may seen even more of getting another low scoring game here is the fact that Tampa Bay has gone under the total in three straight games while St. Louis has gone under the total in four straight games. Those are keeping the number down however. We have a great situation for the over involving teams that are averaging between 14 and 18 ppg going up against teams averaging between 18 and 23 ppg, after allowing three points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 135-83 (61.9 percent) since 1983. 10* Over (301) Tampa Bay Buccaneers/(302) St. Louis Rams

The undefeated streak of the Warriors is the big storyline but they are on another streak as well as they have gone over the total in six straight games. The offense has been off the charts all season long as Golden St. has yet to be held to fewer than 100 points but could tonight be the night? Over this six-game stretch, only Toronto has a better defense than what the Warriors will be facing tonight and the of those teams possess three of the top six worst defenses in the NBA. Indiana has gone over the total in two straight as it has had two straight shootouts, but those were aberrations of what has happened this season. Those games were on the road and the Pacers defense at home is allowing just 94.9 ppg on 43.4 percent shooting and it's pretty safe to say they cannot win this game if it gets into a trackmeet. Here, we play on the under involving road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 after a win by 10 points or more going up against an opponent after a combined score of 215 points or more two straight games. This situation is 24-3 (88.9 percent) to the under the last five seasons. 10* Under (501) Golden St. Warriors/(502) Indiana Pacers

It is pretty rare to see an NBA total in the 220's but that is what we have tonight between Oklahoma City and Sacramento. Only once this season between these two teams in 40 games combined has there been a total more than 220 and the Kings and Warriors stayed under it by more than 23 points. Oklahoma City has stayed under the total in five straight games and it is the defense that has been the difference, allowing just 95.6 ppg over that stretch. This series has seen the total be in the 200's in nine of the last 10 meetings and all nine of those have stayed below the number. The Oklahoma City under run puts them in a solid situation where we play the under involving home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games, with a winning record on the season. This situation is 33-9 (78.6 percent) to the under the last five seasons. Additionally, the under is 9-0 in the Thunder's last nine games against teams with a losing record while the under is 7-0 in the Kings last seven games against teams with a winning record. 10* Under (509) Sacramento Kings/(510) Oklahoma City Thunder

Northern Illinois and Bowling Green square off for the third straight season in Detroit for the MAC Championship. Things are different this time around as the Huskies were favored in both of the previous two meetings but now it is the Falcons that come in as a huge chalk tonight with the main reason being the Northern Illinois quarterback situation. Drew Hare is done for the season and Ryan Graham, who led them to that improbable win over Toledo and then led them to two more win, was hurt last week. Freshman Tommy Fielder is expected to start tonight and there is no doubt that a run heavy gameplan has been put into place. Bowling Green has a very potent offense behind quarterback Matt Johnson but the Huskies have a sneaky good defense that has done enough to have their last two games go under the number while allowing more than 30 points only once this season. Northern Illinois is 12-2 to the under as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points while Bowling Green is 6-0 to the under in its last six games against teams averaging 31 or more ppg and 14-4 to the under after covering as a double-digit favorite. Both teams fall into a great under situation as we play the under involving teams where the total is greater than or equal to 63 and having two teams averaging between 4.3 and 4.8 ypc. This situation is 46-18 (71.9 percent) to the under the last five seasons. 10* Under (303) Northern Illinois Huskies/(304)Bowling Green Falcons

It has been a pretty tough month for the Packers which went from an undefeated record at 6-0 and a lead in the NFC North to a 7-4 record and now fighting for a Wild Card spot in the conference. The division is still within grasp but laying points on the road with the way it is playing is tough to do but we do expect the offense to do much better than what took place in the first meeting three weeks ago. Green Bay managed just 16 points but did put up 372 yards in the defeat which was similar to last week against the Bears where they put up 365 yards and scored only 13 points. While the Lions defense has been great the last three weeks, this is still a very inconsistent unit. On the other side, under new offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter, the Lions are closer to a balanced offense. They ran the ball 29.4 percent of the time in the first seven games but with a stronger commitment to the ground game, the Lions are still playing the preferred up-tempo style that suits quarterback Matt Stafford best. They broke out for 45 points last Thursday as Stafford was as sharp as he has been all season, and he will get plenty of single-high safety looks Thursday. Green Bay falls into a solid totals situation as we play the over involving road teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 off a loss by 7 points or less to a division rival. This situation is 29-8 (78.4 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Meanwhile, Detroit is 10-2 to the over in its last 12 games after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games. 10* Over (301) Green Bay Packers/(302) Detroit Lions

Denver has dropped six straight games and the offense has gotten progressively worse over the stretch as the Nuggets scored 107 points in the first loss and are coming off a season-low 74 points scored at Milwaukee on Monday. The under has come through over the last four games which came after a four-game over run where the offense was much more efficient and the dense was awful. Chicago meanwhile has alternated wins and losses over its last five games but going back further, the Bulls have gone under the total in seven straight games. While their own defense has looked sharp, they have gone against some very tough defenses of late with the last four games coming against teams ranked in the top ten in shooting percentage defense. Denver is ranked 5th worst. The Bulls defense has performed very well this season allowing just 41.1 percent shooting but the pace is the difference as Chicago is the 7th fastest team in the league with 102.2 possessions per game and its 91.3 field goal attempts allowed per game is by far the most. Denver is 13-4 to the over in its last 17 games against teams allowing 43 percent shooting or better while the over is 6-2 in the Bulls last eight games against teams with a winning percentage below .400. 10* Over (509) Denver Nuggets/(510) Chicago Bulls

Washington has gotten off to a horrible start to the season based on expectations coming in and it certainly doesn’t get any easier here. The offense has been atrocious the last three games as the Wizards have scored 87, 78 and 82 points and to no surprise, all of those games stayed below the total. I expect a big effort tonight against an average Cleveland defense that has been very inconsistent. The Cavaliers have stayed below the total in two straight games as the offense has tallied just 90 and 95 points but now they face a Wizards defense that has allowed 105.1 ppg on 46 percent shooting through 14 games, both of which are 25th in the NBA. Cleveland is shooting 46.1 percent while averaging 103.1 ppg and prior to this two-game under run, they had gone over the total in six straight. Here we play the over involving road teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 after going under the total by more than 12 points in two consecutive games, first half of the season. This situation is 41-18 (69.5 percent) to the under since 1996. Meanwhile, the over is 40-17-1 in the Cavaliers last 58 games playing on two days rest. 10* Over (701) Washington Wizards/(702) Cleveland Cavaliers

We have seen some duds on Monday night of late with little offensive action but that should change tonight as we have two teams out of playoff contention facing off. Baltimore is coming off a 2-11 homestand but suffered another pair of tough injuries as quarterback Joe Flacco and running back Justin Forsett were both lost for the season and while that could hurt the offense, the opposing defense won't show much resistance. Cleveland meanwhile has lost five straight games and while the offense did little to help, getting Josh McCown back behind center will help immensely as Johnny Manziel was garbage. Now back to the defenses as these are two of the worst scoring defenses in the NFL as Baltimore is allowing 24.9 ppg and Cleveland is allowing 27.7 ppg, 23rd and 30th respectively in the NFL. Cleveland falls into a very high scoring situation as we play the over involving home teams in the second half of the season that are allowing 370 ypg going up against teams allowing between 335 and 370 ypg, after allowing 450 or more total yards in their previous game. This situation is 23-5 (82.1 percent) to the over since 1983. Additionally, the over is 4-0 in the Browns four home games this season while the over is 5-0 in the Ravens last five games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game. 10* Over (275) Baltimore Ravens/(276) Cleveland Browns

Boston went to Orlando last night and got throttled by 19 points but more important for our purposes here, it was its third straight under after going over in its previous four games. Now the Celtics are catching a total that is the lowest they have seen all season and the time they have had one south of 200 in 15 consecutive games. The Heat meanwhile have gone under in four straight games but those four games were against teams ranked 24th, 29th and 30th in the NBA in scoring offense while Boston is a top 10 offense. The under has been a trend all season with 15 of 17 staying below the total but only three games overall have come against top 10 offenses. The trend for the over/unders for Miami has seen the number go down in each of these past four games and while this one is back up a bit, it is still in a good range based on the opponent. The over is 6-1 in the Celtics last seven games against teams with a winning record while the over is 6-1 in Heat's last seven games against team with a winning record. 10* Over (501) Boston Celtics/(502) Miami Heat

The Clippers had lost four of five games before trouncing New Orleans on Friday with the offense putting up 111 points. That offense has been inconsistent of late but they are still the sixth highest scoring team in the NBA and the recent inconsistencies has led to a run of five straight unders. Minnesota is also coming off a win, its third straight, and it has been the defense that has led the way so something has to give today. That defense has led the Timberwolves to four straight unders but now they face a real challenge. Both teams are in the top ten in the NBA in shooting percentage and we are seeing a significant decrease in the total than each team had in its previous game. The over is 8-2 in the Clippers last 10 home games against teams with a winning road record and the over is 12-3 in their last 15 games following a win. Meanwhile, the over is 51-33 in the Timberwolves last 84 games following one or more consecutive unders with an average of 210 ppg scored in those follow up games. 10* Over (703) Minnesota Timberwolves/(704) Los Angeles Clippers

Both Miami and New York suffered losses on Wednesday as each offense could not keep up. Expect those offenses to move things along tonight against inconsistent defenses. These teams are a combined 22-7-1 to the under and that is keeping this total down and is actually a bucket lower than what it was when they met on Monday. The over is 10-1 in the Heat's last 11 games following a loss of more than 10 points while the over is 7-3-1 in the Knicks last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. Additionally, New York is 23-11 to the over in its last 34 games when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points. 10* Over (705) Miami Heat/(706) New York Knicks

Chicago has not gotten off to a good start on this west coast swing as it has split the first two games but you cannot fault the Bulls for a loss against Golden St. as no team has been able to solve the Warriors thus far. Both of those games stayed below the total to make it three straight unders and these last two have had closing totals higher than tonight's. The offense will get a boost tonight with the return of Derrick Rose as three days off since the Golden St. game has given his ankle time to heal. Portland has won two straight games since suffering through a seven-game losing streak. The defense has been the difference but those games came against the dreadful Lakers and the struggling Clippers. After seven straight overs, Portland has gone under the total in four of its last five games and with that, the over/under is affected as it is the second lowest over this six-game stretch, the lowest being a point lower against the Spurs, which posses the best defense in the NBA. The Bulls possess a better offense than in the past and they are playing at a much fast pace than in the past as they are averaging 102.4 possessions per game, seventh most in the NBA. While the Chicago defense is still solid, Portland is 15-4 to the over in its last 19 games against teams allowing 43 percent shooting or lower. 10* Over (509) Chicago Bulls/(510) Portland Trailblazers

The under is 4-0-1 the last five Thursday night NFL games and while past outcomes do not predict future results, I think we are due for a shootout here. Neither Tennessee nor Jacksonville are known for their potent offenses but both are capable especially going up against these opposing defenses. Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota has not put up eye-popping numbers but he has a quarterback rating of 98.3 which is good for ninth best in the NFL and he is clearly getting more comfortable. Jacksonville is 26th in the league in opposing quarterback rating at 99.7 and the Jaguars have given up their fair share of points as they have allowed fewer than 20 points only once this season and have given up an average of 28.3 ppg. On the other side, Blake Bortles has not been nearly as efficient but he too has improved as the season has gone on. While the Titans defense is solid in yards allowed, they are allowing a passer rating of 95.1 to the opposition, which is 22nd in the NFL. Both possess pretty poor rushing offenses so we should see a lot of passing Thursday night. Overall, the teams are a combined 11-7 to the over and we are getting a very reasonable number here. The over is 13-6 in the Titans last 19 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game while the over is 6-2 in the Jaguars last eight home games against teams with a losing road record. 10* Over (309) Tennessee Titans/(310) Jacksonville Jaguars

Charlotte and New York meet for the second time in less than a week and while the game was not decided until the final buzzer, the game stayed well below the total as 188 total points were scored in a game that closed with a 200.5 over/under. We are now getting a number that is a couple buckets lower than that obviously due to that result but also to extended runs from both sides. Charlotte is 3-0-1 to the under in its last four games with all those games closing at 199 or higher while the Knicks have gone under in three straight games and seven of their last eight games and tonight's number is the lowest of the bunch. The offense should continue to get better with the improved play of Carmelo Anthony as through the first six games, he shot 37.5 percent or worse five times but since then, he is averaging 26.6 ppg on 45.9 percent shooting and 38.7 percent from long range. Going back, New York is 67-41 to the over in its last 108 games as a home underdog of three points or less while the Hornets are 7-1 to the over their last eight games against teams with a losing record. We see a much higher scoring game here than what we saw last week. 10* Over (709) Charlotte Hornets/(710) New York Knicks

Portland's totals have been all over the place over the last 11 days, ranging from 189.5 to 206 yet the Trailblazers have surpassed the total in each and every game. We are getting a number on the high side for Sunday and we are banking on a lower scoring game and that over streak coming to an end. It is a run that is surprising based on the fact that Portland is just 18th in the NBA in pace, averaging just 99.7 possessions per game. On the other side, Charlotte is 26th in the pace category as it averages just 98.6 possessions per game and its recent run of three straight unders coincides with that. While the Trailblazers have seen totals from all angles, this is the highest one that the Hornets have encountered this season. In all three games that Charlotte has had a total in the 200's, all fell below the mark of what it has here Sunday. This has been a high-scoring series as each of the last three years has resulted in a sweep of the over but again, this is the highest number of them all. 10* Under (705) Portland Trailblazers/(706) Charlotte Hornets

We lost with the Bears/Chargers over on Monday night but will come back with it here as the Bears head to St. Louis feeling pretty good about themselves. There was plenty of offense last week as Chicago gained 446 yards but unfortunately managed just 22 points. While they are facing a tougher defense this week, we are getting a much better number to work with which is partly due to the Bears going 5-1 to the under over their last six games. Speaking of unders, St. Louis has gone under the total in each of its last four games and six of its last seven so that is also playing into this total. Considering the last two games have come against two of the three worst offenses in the NFL and the total is just a couple points higher here, it shows the value involved. The Rams have allowed a total of 24 points in their last three home games but two of those came against offenses ranked 27th and 32nd while the other came against the Steelers when Ben Roethlisberger was knocked out. Chicago will be able to move the ball. On the other side, the Bears defense is 27th in points allowed and St. Louis has averaged a solid 22.8 ppg at home this season. Chicago is 9-1 to the over in it last 10 road games after one or more consecutive wins with the average points being 62.1 ppg while Str. Louis is 6-0 to the over in its last six after a loss by six or less points with the average point total being 53.5 ppg. 10* Over (257) Chicago Bears/(258) St. Louis Rams

We lost with the over in the California/Oregon game last week by three points as 72 points were scored in the game where the posted total closed at 75. We will come back with the over this week as the Golden Bears are on a 6-0 under streak but two things are in our favor here. A lot of those unders were close to going over and this is the lowest posted total over this stretch and at this number, half of those would have gone over. The offense is ranked 23rd in the nation and needs to get rolling again after a strong start but having a tough time scoring points the last few weeks. Of course, three of those games were on the road and the lone home game was against USC. We lost with Oregon St. last week as tit was dismantled at home against UCLA, its sixth straight loss. Backing them against to cover is not happening this week as the 92nd ranked defense faces another massive test but what makes the Beavers a good over bet here is that the offense will be facing the 110th ranked defense in the country. This after facing two tough defenses in the first two games without starting quarterback Seth Collins. While the Golden Bears are on an under run, the Beavers have gone under in three straight games but the over is 4-0 in the Beavers last four games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game. 10* Over (195) Oregon St. Beavers/(196) California Golden Bears

San Jose St. hits the road following three straight home games and that is a big factor here in playing the over involving the Spartans. All three of those games went under the total as the defense was the difference and has been all season based on the venue. The Spartans are allowing 20.8 ppg in five home games but that average jumps to 33.5 ppg in four road games. The offense is ranked 73rd in the nation which is a little below average but they take on a very average Nevada defense that has overachieved the last six games. We say that because the teams they have faced over this stretch are ranked 121st, 122nd, 100th, 93rd, 64th and 81st so the numbers are definitely skewed. This of course has helped with all six of those games going below the total and this is despite the fact the Wolf Pack have scored 30 points or more in three of those six games. Because of that stretch, Nevada is seeing its lowest posted total of the season and while not by much, every little bit counts when it comes to these mid-range totals. This has historically been a low scoring series but again, this is the lowest number between these two teams since 2008. Going back, the over is 8-3 in the Spartans last 11 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. 10* Over (193) San Jose St. Spartans/(194) Nevada Wolf Pack

It has been quite a turnaround for Southern Mississippi as after winning four games combined the last three seasons, the Golden Eagles because bowl eligible two weeks ago with a win over UTEP. They have been doing it with defense by allowing just 33 points over the last three games combined but those came against teams ranked 95th or worst in total offense. As far as the offense goes, Southern Mississippi is ranked 13th in the country, averaging 507.7 ypg which is close to 150 ypg more than last season. They have been held to fewer than 28 points only twice all season and that offense should flourish once again here as Rice comes in with the 102nd ranked defense and has allowed an average of 38.5 ppg against FBS teams, taking out an 16-point effort against Wagner. The Owls are ranked a respectable 59th in total offense and the Owls have gone over the total in 17 of their last 23 games after consecutive ATS losses while Southern Mississippi falls into a great over situation. Here, we play the over where the total is between 56.5 and 63 involving teams after gaining 450 or more total yards in three consecutive games. This situation is 24-5 (82.8 percent) the last 10 seasons. Look for this one to fly over the number as the Golden Eagles snap their six-game under run. 10* Over (175) Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles/(176) Rice Owls

Rex Ryan returns to New York to face his former team for the first time and it should be a circus. While both offenses have been pretty steady of late, the defenses have been a real disappointment. The Jets allowed more than 20 points just once in their first five games but have allowed 29 ppg over their last three games. On the other side, Buffalo gave up 14 or fewer points in three of its first five games, it has allowed 28.3 ppg over its last three games. Both defenses are better than these recent forms and I expect both to pick it up on Thursday night. Because of the recent defensive struggles, the Bills have gone over the total in three straight games while the Jets have gone over the total in four straight games so we get the value that comes with that. Both teams fall into great low scoring situations. For Buffalo, we play the under involving road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points that are coming off a home win against a division rival. This situation is 52-21 (71.2 percent) to the under the last five seasons. For the Jets, we play the under involving teams after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games, versus division opponents. This situation is 62-26 (70.5 percent) to the under the last five seasons. Additionally, the under is 11-5 in the Bills last 16 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game while the under is 16-4 in the Jets last 20 games after allowing seven or more yppl in their previous game. 10* Under (109) Buffalo Bills/(110) New York Jets

After opening the season with an over against Charlotte, Miami has now gone under the total in its last seven games as the defense has been lights out over that stretch. Because of this, the totals have to be adjusted based on the opponent and tonight sees the lowest over/under that Miami has seen this season. Additionally, this is the first total for the Heat that has been in the 180's and it is on the low end for that matter and going back, Miami is 17-4 to the over in its last 21 home games where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points. Utah is coming off a high scoring game in Cleveland to post just its second over of the season and that one also happened to be in the 180's. Utah is also playing solid defense but the key number here is the offensive shooting percentages which are a combined 89 percent. Utah is 4-0 to the over in its last four road games against teams with a home winning percentage of .600 or better while the over is 7-1 in their last eight games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. Miami falls into a great situation for a high-scoring game as we play the over involving teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points that are outscoring their opponents by six or more ppg going up against an opponent after a combined score of 205 points or more. This situation is 169-109 (60.8 percent) to the over since 1996. 10* Over (501) Utah Jazz/(502) Miami Heat

A great matchup on paper a few weeks ago has turned into which team can finally win their third game of the season. The point spread seems to be right on with the Chargers about two points better and then another two points added for home field which is one of the weakest in the league. With not a lot of pressure on either side, we should see both offenses slinging it around and having success in doing so. The Bears will be without Matt Forte so rookie running back Jeremy Langford will make his first career start and he should find holes against a Chargers defense that's allowing 124.6 ypg on the ground, the sixth-worst mark in the NFL. Getting him going will help out Jay Cutler who has been solid since returning from a hamstring injury. On the other side, Philip Rivers is having a great season and that should continue here despite the loss of Keenan Allen as the Bears secondary is a mess. Rivers has thrown for over 300 yards in six of his eight games this season and while the Bears are fourth in the NFL in pass defense, but have surrendered 16 passing touchdowns which is tied for fourth-most in the league. The over is 8-2 in the Bears last 10 road games against teams with a losing home record while the over is 4-0 in the Chargers last four games against teams with a losing record. Both teams fall into the same situation as we play the over involving teams with a poor rushing defense, allowing 4.5 or more rushing ypc, after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in four straight games. This situation is 55-26 (67.9 percent) to the over since 1983. 10* Over (473) Chicago Bears/(474) San Diego Chargers

Miami and Indiana stayed below the total for us on Friday as we missed the over thanks to a dismal 79-point second half. That is done with and now we are set with a better matchup and an even better number to work with. This is by far the lowest total the Heats have seen this season and a big reason for that is the fact that they have gone under the total in five straight games after opening the season with an over against Charlotte. After opening the season by surpassing the century mark in its first five games, Toronto was held to just 87 points on Friday to suffer its first loss of the season. The defense has been excellent for the Raptors, as was the case last season, but now they go up against a Heat team that is shooting 46.3 percent on the season, good for sixth best in the NBA. Like Miami, Toronto has been on an under run, going below the total in four straight games and similarly to the Heat, this is the lowest total the Raptors have seen as well. Toronto is 13-4 to the over in its last 17 road games where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points while Miami has gone over the total in seven of its last 10 games following a loss. 10* Over (505) Toronto Raptors/(506) Miami Heat

This is a play on the RAIDERS/STEELERS OVER for our Total of the Week. The Steelers are coming off a brutal loss last week against the Bengals as two late interceptions led to Cincinnati pulling away at the end. Pittsburgh fell to 4-4 and is now four games behind the Bengals in the AFC North. The offense that was expected to be one of the most explosive in the NFL has been anything but that, averaging just 21 ppg. Obviously, the absence of Ben Roethlisberger had a lot to do with that but now that he is back, the offense should start clicking again. The loss of Le'Veon Bell is a huge one but we should see more of the passing game and with the Steelers staying below the total for the last six games, we are playing with a lot of value here. The Raiders come in with a 4-3 record after two straight wins as the offense has put up 37 and 34 points and that was the fourth time this season Oakland has scored 27 or more points. They have gone over in five of seven games which is offsetting some of the value but with the playmakers on the Raiders offense starting to really click, this has the potential to be the highest scoring game of the weekend. Going back to the Bell absence, when DeAngelo Williams played in the two games during his suspension, the Steelers scored 64 points so the potential is definitely still there. Pittsburgh is 17-5 to the over in its last 22 games after scoring 14 points or less in two straight games while Oakland is 13-4 to the over in its last 17 games in the second half of the season. 10* Over (451) Oakland Raiders/(452) Pittsburgh Steelers

While we are playing the over in the game with the lowest posted total of the day, we are also playing the over in the game with the third highest total of the day. We played the over in the California/USC game last week and the Golden Bears could not get an offensive rhythm going as the Trojans controlled the time of possession. That won't be the case this week as Oregon does not have close to the same defense as USC. The Ducks are ranked 116th in the nation in total defense and they allow 38.4 ppg which is 117th in the country. California's offense should wake up here after scoring 24 points or less the last three games, a number they surpassed in all five of their first games. While Oregon is struggling with a 5-3 record, the offense is still dynamic and is ranked 12th in total offense and 10th in scoring offense. Here, we play the over involving teams where the total is 70 points or higher coming off a win as an underdog from Week Ten on. The over is 23-4 (85.2 percent) over the last ten seasons. Additionally, Oregon is 7-0 to the over in its last seven home games following a Thursday game. 10* Over (401) California Golden Bears/(402) Oregon Ducks

The third over we are going with is a middle of the road number that is going against a recent team trend. After opening the season with three straight overs, Mississippi has gone under the total in its last six games. The defense has led the way but now the defense faces the best offense it has seen since facing Memphis where the Rebels allowed 37 points. Arkansas has gotten its offense in gear the last two games and now comes in ranked 33rd in the country in total offense and 50th in scoring offense. The Razorbacks defense has been gashed for 30.7 ppg over the last six games and while the Mississippi point totals have been average of late, which is a main reason for the under run, but on the season, the Rebels are averaging 519.6 ypg which is 11th highest in the nation. They will be playing with a chip on their shoulder as well as Mississippi was shutout in Arkansas last season 30-0 so they will have a lot to prove. The Rebels control their own destiny in the SEC West so they will be ready. Arkansas is 21-9 to the over in its last 30 road November games. 10* Over (409) Arkansas Razorbacks/(410) Mississippi Rebels

This is the lowest total on the board for Saturday and we will take advantage of the number that the linesmakers were forced to post. The Commodores have failed to go above the total in any game this season and while they are coming off a game where they were shutout, that makes this a good spot for the offense to do at least a little something. This is the lowest total Florida has seen this season and it too has been on an under run, going below the total in three of its last four games. While the Gators will be facing a strong Vanderbilt defense, they are averaging 31 ppg this season and last week, the Commodores allowed a season-high 34 points against Houston. Despite the midseason quarterback change as a result of Will Grier's suspension for testing positive for a substance banned by the NCAA, the Gators quickly stabilized when Treon Harris took over. Of his 44 completions, 12 have gone for 20 or more yards (27.3 percent) and his big play ability is good for the offense. Florida has gone over the total in eight of its last 11 home games while going 7-3 to the over in its last 10 games after allowing 20 points or fewer. 10* Over (341) Vanderbilt Commodores/(342) Florida Gators

Both Miami and Indiana are off to average starts this season and both have been involved in some very low scoring games this season. I think that changes tonight as we are bucking that trend and going with the value play in what looks to be a high scoring game. The Heat opened the season with an over against Charlotte but since then, they have stayed under the total in four straight games with none of those really coming close to going over. The Pacers meanwhile are off to a similar start where they went over in their first two games but have stayed under the total in their last three games and like Miami, none have been close to surpassing the number. The contrarian approach tonight is to see both streaks broken. From a pace standpoint, both teams are averaging more possessions per game than they did last season so we should see an uptempo style in this matchup. Indiana is 50-32 to the over in its last 82 games when the total is between 190 and 199.5 and 8-3 to the over in its last 11 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Meanwhile, the over is 5-2 in Miami's last seven road games against teams with a losing home record. 10* Over (511) Miami Heat/(512) Indiana Pacers

Temple is coming off a very tough loss at home last Saturday night and that can lead to a letdown here. When teams fall into this situation, it tends to affect the defense more which I expect to happen here. Saturday night marked the first game Temple played in which both teams were ranked which also provides quite the letdown. The good news for the Owls is that they are facing a horrible team and the offense that has struggled the last couple games should be able to score at will. While the defense will not completely collapse, all we should need is a couple SMU scores to push this one over. The Mustangs have lost six straight games with the defense being the big culprit as they have allowed point totals of 56, 48, 49, 49, 38 and 40 points. Overall, SMU is ranked 120th in total defense and 123rd in scoring defense while Temple comes in 58th in scoring offense. Another factor that helps here is the pace of the game as the Mustangs have run 608 plays in just eight games and the 76 plays per game on offense are good for 29th most in the nation. The solidifier is the fact that each team has gone under the total in their last two games and that is providing some value. Temple is 10-1 to the over in its last 11 road games after allowing 6.75 yppl or more in their previous game while SMU is 6-0 to the over in its last six games coming off a home conference loss. 10* Over (319) Temple Owls/(320) SMU Mustangs

Mississippi St. comes in a hefty road favorite in Missouri as it has rolled to three straight wins following a loss to Texas A&M while the tigers are riding a three games losing skid as the offense has been nowhere to be found. The Bulldogs hit the road for the first time in over a month but after scoring 45, 45 and 42 points their last three games, I expect that offense to keep chugging along despite playing a very tough defense in Missouri. The Tigers have gone under the total in all eight of their games this season thanks to a good defense and an offense that has shut down of late. They have scored just 12 points over their last three games but Missouri has faced three very strong defenses in those three games as the opposition was ranked 15th, 21st and 23rd while Mississippi St. comes in 53rd in total defense. That is a respectable ranking but the Bulldogs are far from dominant. We are getting a great number here to work with as this is about right on track with recent Missouri closing totals but this one is 10 points lower than the lowest over/under Mississippi St. has seen all season. That alone is worth the play here and the one team with the contrarian value, Missouri, is 9-1 to the over in its last 10 home games following a loss as a favorite while going 23-7 to the over in its last 30 games after two straight games of forcing one or fewer turnovers. It won't take a lot to push this one over the total. 10* Over (315) Mississippi St. Bulldogs/(316) Missouri Tigers

Orlando and Houston are coming off their first wins of the season after 0-3 starts as the Magic won last night in New Orleans while the Rockets took care of Oklahoma City on Monday. The offense finally came to life for Houston against the Thunder as it went over the century mark for the first time this season but the defense remains a concern, as it is allowing 107.8 ppg. Despite this, all four of the Rockets games have stayed under the total and we are getting value now because of that. The Magic have now covered all four games this season and while it is tempting to go against that tonight, laying that number with the Houston defense does not seem logical. Orlando has gone under the total in three of four games including the last two games so it also fits into the contrarian situation here as well. The lone game that went over comes against a similar style team as the game with Oklahoma City easily eclipsed the total even before overtime came into play. Orlando is 31-13 to the over in its last 44 games against teams shooting 41 percent or worse while Houston is 7-3 to the over in its last 10 games against teams with a winning percentage below .400. 10* Over (511) Orlando Magic/(512) Houston Rockets

When these two teams are brought up, the word shootout comes to mind and that has been the case recently for both. The Rockets have gone over the total in two straight games while the Huskies have gone over the total in three straight games. But when it comes to these two playing each other, it has been a lower scoring series with the under coming through in the last three meetings. Both teams do bring in highly potent offenses but they also come in with very underrated defenses and those are the units that should take greater control tonight. Toledo and Northern Illinois are ranked 51st and 52nd respectively in total defense and both the rushing and passing units are equally good. Offensively, they are not as similar but both want to be a run team and establishing the run will be the goal tonight. That is a clock eater and while both teams has been hitting with big plays, that likely will not happen tonight because of the strength of the defenses. Northern Illinois is 16-5 to the under in its last 21 games after gaining 525 or more total ypg over their last three games while Toledo is 22-10 to the under against teams averaging 425 or more ypg. The situation and opponent also calls for a low scoring game as the under is 5-0 in the Huskies last five road games against teams with a winning home record and the under is 12-4 in the Rockets last 16 games against teams with a winning record. 10* Under (301) Northern Illinois/(302) Toledo Rockets

We are bound to see a low scoring game in this World Series as offense, or lack of defense, has been the theme thus far. All four game have gone over the total and while we were looking at the first possible under last night, that didn't happen due to a botched play in the eighth inning by the Mets. They now have their backs against the wall and will rely on Matt Harvey to try and extend their season. He was decent in Game One of this series but his command was clearly off and he believes that he should be sharper on Sunday. He repeatedly noted Saturday that he is pleased that this start will come on regular rest. He had an eight-day layoff before facing the Dodgers in Game Three of the National League Division Series and waited nine days to face Kansas City the first time around. On the other side, Edinson Volquez will get the ball for the Royals and he will certainly be pitching with a heavy heart. His father passed hours before Game One of the World Series, but Volquez didn't find out until after he had pitched six innings of three-run ball. Volquez said he is excited for Sunday, calling the Game Five start "a dream come true" and saying that he will be thinking about his mother when he takes the mound, which can bring out the best. The under is 6-1 in Volquez' last seven starts against teams with a winning record while the under is 37-18-1 in the Mets last 56 interleague home games against right-handed starters. 10* Under (909) Kansas City Royals/(910) New York Mets

The Vanderbilt offense has been horrible of late but playing in the SEC can do that to teams. Now playing an out of conference game against a team with a weak defense can change that. The Commodores have scored a grand total of 53 points over their last four games and they have been terribly inefficient, ranking 115th nationally in turnovers and 126th in red-zone scoring. While not great numbers, they take on a Cougars defense that has been very inconsistent as well. They have allowed just 17 points the last two games but those came against UCF and Tulane which are a combined 2-13. The Houston offense will give Vanderbilt a challenge even though the Commodores possess a tough stop unit. Houston's offense is averaging 569 ypg over the last five games while scoring no fewer than 38 points. This is the lowest over/under the Cougars have seem all season and it is that way because of the results from Vanderbilt which has yet to go over a total this season. Houston is 16-6 to the over in its last 22 home games coming off a double-digit conference win while going 12-3 to the over in its last 15 home games after scoring 24 or more points in the first half of its previous game. While the Commodores are on an under run, they are 9-3-1 to the over in their last 13 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. 10* Over (167) Vanderbilt Commodores/(168) Houston Cougars

This has the makings of a shootout which is the reason for the big number. The California offense is an explosive one but has been held in check the last two games against Utah and UCLA as it scored just 24 points in each game. Those were both on the road however so a return home is what the Golden Bears need to get the offense going again. Possible No. 1 pick in next year's NFL Draft, Jared Goff, leads the passing offense that ranks second behind only pass happy Washington State in the Pac 12 with 346 ypg. The Trojans did a phenomenal job getting pressure on Travis Wilson last week, forcing him into throwing four interceptions, but have been exposed by the likes of Kevin Hogan and DeShone Kizer. The young secondary will surely be tested here. USC quarterback Cody Kessler isn't far behind as the Trojans are averaging over 326 ypg which is 14th in the nation and he has thrown 18 touchdowns to just five interceptions. The Golden Bears have allowed 70 points the last two games while giving up 259.6 ypg and 12.4 yards per completion as the secondary is a very weak unit. California's secondary was carved up by UCLA freshman QB Josh Rosen, who completed 34-of-47 passes for 399 yards and three touchdowns. Kessler had a huge game against Cal last season, completing 31-of-42 for 371 yards with four touchdowns and one interception. 10* Over (153) USC Trojans/(154) California Golden Bears

We played against Rutgers last week as it managed just seven points against the Buckeyes and while it is facing another tough defense, there is the hope of more offense this week. The Scarlet Knights defense has been atrocious of late as they have allowed 49 and 52 points which is right around where this number sits and it happens to be the lowest over/under Rutgers since facing Penn St. back on September 19th. The under has come in four of their last five games which helps with the value and the number itself. Wisconsin is on a much longer streak as it has stayed below the total in six straight games after starting the season 2-0 to the over. Defense has been the story as the Badgers have allowed just 7.7 ppg throughout this under streak while the offense has been pretty average. Wisconsin has scored no more than 28 points but it has faced some tough defenses along the way and Rutgers is not classified in that group. The Scarlet Knights are ranked 111th in total defense so the Badgers are expected to have a big day offensively. Despite the recent run of unders, Wisconsin is 15-3 to the over in its last 18 home games coming off a double-digit conference win and 28-14 to the over in its last 42 games when playing against teams with a losing record. 10* Over (131) Rutgers Scarlet Knights/(132) Wisconsin Badgers

Miami has turned its season completely around since its London trip with the firing of Joe Philbin and the hiring of Dan Carpenter as head coach. The big turnaround has been on the offensive side as the Dolphins have scored 82 points over their last two games after scoring 65 points in their first four games. Because of the resurgence, the Dolphins went over the total in those two games and now the number this week has been adjusted and by too much in my opinion as this is the highest over/under Miami has encountered this season. Also, it is the first time the Dolphins have seen a total in the 50's since Week 13 of the 2012 season. Coincidentally, that was also against New England and it stayed well below the total. New England has also gone over the total in two straight games as well as four of its last five which is also playing a role in this week's total. The Patriots offense has been in high gear all season and while Miami has struggled on defense, that unit has also improved the last two weeks. Four of seven Thursday night games have gone over with two of the unders staying below by a total of just three points so the public continues to play the over on these nationally televised games. Both teams fall into a fantastic league-wide situation as we play the under involving any team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 against division opponents, off a home win. This situation is 65-28 (69.9 percent) to the under since 1983. Additionally, Miami is 19-5 to the under in its last 24 games after gaining 6.0 or more yppl in two consecutive games. 10* Under (101) Miami Dolphins/(102) New England Patriots

We played the over in the Vikings/Chiefs game last week and it didn't come close as only 26 points were scored and that resulted in the first five games of their season going under the total. We are going contrarian here as they face a pretty rough defense while their own defense will be challenged here. The Lions are coming off an overtime win over the Bears as they scored a season-high 37 points following four straight games where they tallied 17 points or fewer. Detroit has outgained the last two opponents and being home in its third straight game presents another great opportunity to keep the offense rolling. The Lions are 6-0 to the over in their last six home games against teams allowing 350 or more ypg while Minnesota falls into a contrarian league-wide situation where we play the over involving any team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points coming off one or more consecutive unders, with defense that is allowing 17 or fewer ppg. This situation is 73-40 (64.6 percent) to the over the last 10 seasons. Weakness against weakness is a strong edge for the Vikings offense here that has scored just 23 combined road points and going against the last four unders in this series serves a contrarian angle as well. 10* Over (461) Minnesota Vikings/(462) Detroit Lions

As mentioned last week, probably one of the biggest surprises this season has been the Cleveland offense as the Browns are averaging 364.2 ypg and 23.5 ppg after coming into the season which looked like a hapless quarterback situation. They are ranked 10th in total offense and 12th in scoring offense so the fact they have gone over the total in all six games is very surprising. Last Sunday, it took a high scoring second half which included a defensive score after a 10-point first half and then produced overtime on top of that. The Rams boast a very strong defense and while not as stringent as the Broncos, it is still a top ten unit. Offensively, St. Louis is one of the worst in the NFL as it is ranked second to last in both total offense and scoring offense so as much as the Browns have struggled at times on defense, do not expect much here for the Rams as they have scored 10 points or less in three of five games. Cleveland falls into a solid situation where we play the under involving road teams against the total that are allowing 370 or more ypg going up against a team allowing between 335 to 370 ypg, after allowing 375 or more total yards in three consecutive games. This situation is 29-9 (76.3 percent) to the under since 1983. 10* Under (453) Cleveland Browns/(454) St. Louis Rams

Based on contrarian theory, which I am a big believer in, this has a potential to be a very high scoring game. Recent results completely go against that but that is where we get the most value as these totals need to be adjusted almost to the point where a game cannot be played the other way. Missouri is coming off a defensive battle against Georgia last weekend as it lost 9-6 to the Bulldogs which was its seventh straight under to start the season. The offense has been inept the last two weeks as the Tigers have managed just nine points total but they will definitely improve upon that this week against Vanderbilt based on the bounce angle. The Commodores come in on a 5-0 under run in its lined games as they have also had trouble on the offensive side of things. They will face a defense that is ranked eighth in the nation in total defense but for both sides, this is the lowest over/under so far this year. The under run is surprising for the Commodores as they lead the SEC with an average of 39.7 pass attempts per game. Even in the Commodores two victories, they averaged 30 passing attempts. Overall, Vanderbilt is averaging 399 ypg, much better than last season's 283.3 ypg. Here, we play the over involving road teams where the total is 42 or less after allowing three points or less in the first half last game going up against an opponent after scoring 14 points or less last game. This situation is 26-5 (83.9 percent) to the over the last 10 seasons. 10* Over (333) Missouri Tigers/(334) Vanderbilt Commodores

Duke ranks second nationally in passing defense with 131.2 ypg, second in scoring defense with 9.3 ppg and fourth in total defense with 252.8 ypg, a stark contrast to the offensive-minded teams that have come to define the Blue Devils' recent resurgence under coach David Cutcliffe. Of the five FBS teams the Blue Devils have played, four - Army, Northwestern, Boston College and Tulane - are ranked 109th nationally or worse in yards per game. The only Duke opponent in the top half of FBS offenses is Georgia Tech, which barely made the cut at 58th. Virginia has played much of the season with backup quarterback Brenden Motley though that will change this week with Michael Brewer back in the starting lineup. Brewer gives the team a more stable option with his experience and despite playing with a backup as well as facing three teams that currently reside in the top 20 nationally in total defense, the Hokies are averaging 5.49 yppl which is half a yard better than last season. Virginia Tech was long known for its defense but that is not the case this season as it is a pretty average unit. The Blue Devils have been average on that side of the ball as well but facing Northwestern and Boston College, ranked 18th and 1st in the country respectively, has had a lot to do with that. Duke is 7-0 to the under while Virginia Tech has gone under in three straight games and that puts this total into another great contrarian situation that we can take advantage of with a low posted total. 10* Over (361) Duke Blue Devils/(362) Virginia Tech Hokies