Sports Picks & Predictions

5* MLB Blockbuster Blue Chip Top Play

---Atlanta Braves +128---

This is a great spot to back the Braves at home as an underdog against the Nationals. Atlanta is going to come out extremely motivated after getting swept on the road by the Rangers. Washington is simply getting too much love for having Stephen Strasburgh on the mound. He's just 3-8 with a 4.45 ERA and 1.317 WHIP over 14 road starts in 2014 and 3-7 with a 4.61 ERA and 1.400 WHIP over 16 career starts against Atlanta.

Key Trends - Strasburg is 3-9 in his last 12 starts following an outing where he didn't walk a batter, 2-7 in his last 9 starts against a team with a winning record and 0-4 in his last 4 during game 1 of a series. Atlanta is 28-10 in their last 38 home games vs a team with a winning road record, 12-5 in their last 17 as a home underdog and 17-3 in their last 20 home games after a loss by 4 runs or more.

System - Home teams who are scoring 3.8 or less runs/game on the season (NL), after allowing 10 or more runs in their last game are 40-16 (71%) against the money line over the last 5 seasons. BET THE BRAVES +128!

5* AL West Blue Chip Game of the Month

---A's/Mariners UNDER 7---

I'm not expecting either offense to do much of anything in tonight's AL West showdown between the A's and Mariners. Oakland's Jason Hammel has a 1.66 ERA and 0.646 WHIP over his last 3 starts and is 3-1 with a 2.61 ERA and 1.065 over 5 career starts against the Mariners. Seattle's James Paxton has a 1.33 ERA and 1.032 WHIP over his last 3 starts and in his only career start vs Oakland, which came this season, he allowed just 2 runs on 4 hits over 7 2/3 innings of work.
Adding even more value here is the fact that both offenses come in struggling. Oakland as a team is hitting just .234 over their last 7 games and the Mariners are hitting just .224 over their last 7. Runs will be a premium tonight and I look for this one to finish safely under the mark.

Key Trends - UNDER is 12-3 in Seattle's last 15 after 2 or more consecutive losses and 22-7 in Oakland's last 29 road games with a well rested bullpen that's threw 1 or less innings in each of their last 2 games.

System - UNDER is 41-14 (75%) since 1997 in games with a total of 7 to 8.5 runs where the road team is off two straight games where they had 5 or less hits against an after 2 straight games where they stranded 5 or less runners. BET THE UNDER!

5* MLB Blockbuster Blue Chip Top Play

---Yankees/Rays UNDER 7---

This is a great spot to jump on the UNDER, in what I would expect to be a game that is dominated by the starting pitching. New York's Michael Pineda has a 1.08 ERA and 0.760 WHIP over 4 home starts and should have an advantage with this being the first time the Rays will have seen him this year. Tampa Bay will start Alex Cobb, who has a 1.56 ERA and 1.212 WHIP over his last 3 starts and is 5-1 with a 1.75 ERA and 0.865 WHIP over 8 career starts against the Yankees.

Key Trends - UNDER is 7-1 in Pineda's 8 starts in 2014 and a perfect 4-0 in his 4 starts at home. UNDER is 15-7-1 in Cobb's 23 starts in 2014 and a perfect 3-0 in his last 3 starts. UNDER is also 6-1 in Cobb's last 7 starts vs New York.

System - UNDER is 213-134 (61%) over the last 5 seasons in games where the home team has an OBP of .320 or worse on the season against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.300 and starting a pitcher who has a 3.50 ERA or better. BET THE UNDER 7!

5* MLB Blue Chip Blockbuster Top Play

---New York Yankees -115---

This is a great spot to jump on the Yankees as a small home favorite. Tampa Bay's Jake Odorizzi has been a completely different pitcher on the road compared to at home. Odorizzi has a 2.69 ERA over 16 home starts and a 5.61 ERA over 12 road starts, which is why I'm not concerned with his last 2 starts, where he didn't allow a single earned run over 14 1/3 innings of work at home. Odorizzi has a 5.58 ERA and 1.655 WHIP over 2 career road starts against the Yankees, both of which came this season.

Key Trends - New York is 24-13 in their last 37 games against a starter who allows 5.5 or less hits per start. Tampa Bay is 1-6 in their last 7 following a win and 1-7 in Odorizzi's last 8 starts as an underdog.

System - Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (NY YANKEES) - terrible offensive team (<=4.2 runs/game) against a good starting pitcher (ERA<=4.20) (AL), after 2 straight losses by 2 runs or less are 35-16 (69%) against the money line since 1997. BET THE YANKEES -115!

5* MLB Blue Chip Blockbuster Top Play

---Nationals/Braves UNDER 7---

Each of the last 3 meetings between these two teams have had 5 or fewer combined runs scored an I'm expecting that trend to continue with today's starting pitching matchup. The Nationals will start Jordan Zimmerman, who has a 2.80 ERA and 1.211 WHIP over 15 home starts and a 2.66 ERA and 1.033 WHIP over his last 3 starts. Atlanta's Ervin Santana also comes in throwing the ball extremely well, as he's got a 2.84 ERA and 1.158 WHIP over his last 3 starts. Adding to this is that both offenses are struggling right now. Atlanta is only hitting .160 as a team over their last 7 and the Nationals aren't a whole lot better at .236.

Key Trends - UNDER is 30-18 in the Braves last 48 games after scoring 2 runs or less and 16-4 in Santana's last 20 starts in the month of September.

System - UNDER is 133-80 (62%) over the last 5 seasons when you have a road team off a loss by 2 runs or less against an opponent that's allowed 4 runs or less in each of their last 3 games. BET THE UNDER 7!

5* MLB Blue Chip Blockbuster Top Play

---New York Mets -145---

This is a great spot to fade the Rockies, who have to travel all the way out to the east coast. Colorado comes in a 4-game winning streak, but all 4 of those wins came at home. The Rockies are a pathetic 20-49 on the road this season and a mere 5-33 in their last 38 away from home.

Colorado is hitting just .228 and averaging a mere 3.3 runs on the road this season and I look for those struggles to continue against Mets' starter Jon Niese, who has been at his best at home. Niese comes in with a 3.12 ERA over 7 home starts. He will be opposed by the Rockies Jordan Lyles, who has an ugly 6.00 ERA and 1.611 WHIP over his last 3 starts.

Key Trends - The Rockies are just 7-23 in their last 30 during game 1 of a series, 3-12 in their last 15 road games against a team with a losing home record and 0-4 in Lyles' last 4 starts as a road underdog. New York is 9-2 in their last 11 home games when listed as a favorite, 8-3 in their last 11 home games against a team that's won less than 40% of their road games and 7-0 in Niese's last 7 starts vs a team with a losing record.

System - Underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (COLORADO) - hot hitting team - batting .315 or better over their last 5 games against opponent with an on base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games are just 33-100 (25%) against the money line since 1997. BET THE METS -145!

5* MLB Blockbuster Blue Chip Top Play

---Oakland A's -120---

This is a great spot to jump on the A's as a small home favorite against the Mariners. While Seattle will be sending out their ace Felix Hernandez, he's comes in having not looked sharp in each of his last 3 starts. After failing to make it past the 6th in his two previous starts, Hernandez was rocked for 5 runs on 10 hits (4 HRs) in a loss at home to the Nationals. The real concerning thing in that last start is that Hernandez only managed to record 1 strikeout. He's clearly not himself right now.

Oakland will send out Jon Lester, who has been as good as anticipated since coming to the A's in a trade with the Red Sox. Lester has a 2.66 ERA and 1.06 WHIP over 6 starts with Oakland and has been sensational when taking the mound at the Coliseum. In his 3 home starts with A's, Lester has allowed just 4 runs over 23 2/3 innings of work.

Key Trends - Seattle is 1-4 in their last 5 against a left-handed starter, 1-4 in their last 5 vs a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15 and 1-4 in Hernandez's last 5 starts on just 4 days of rest. Oakland is 38-15 in their last 53 home games, 40-17 in their last 57 after allowing 5+ runs and 22-5 in their last 27 home games with an OBP of .300 or worst over their last 10 games.

System - All favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (OAKLAND) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 or better on the season (AL) against opponent with a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is better than 70% are 63-17 (79%) against the money line over the last 5 seasons. BET THE A'S -120!

5* AL West Over/Under Total of the Month

---A's/Mariners UNDER 7---

This is a great spot to jump on the UNDER in tonight's showdown between the Mariners and A's. Both teams will be sending out strong starters. Oakland will start Sonny Gray, who has a 3.21 ERA and 1.245 WHIP over 15 home starts and has absolutely owned Seattle in his career. Gray has faced the Mariners 5 times and has compiled an impressive 1.10 ERA and 1.010 WHIP. Opposing Gray will be Seattle's James Paxton, who has been extremely tough to score on when he's been healthy enough to take the mound. Paxton has a 1.83 ERA and 1.093 WHIP over 7 starts this season. I'll like his chances of keeping the A's offense in check, as this will be the first time he's faced Oakland in his brief career.

Key Trends - UNDER is 21-6 in Seattle's last 27 games when their opponent scores 5+ runs in their last contest, 21-8 in their last 29 games when listed as an underdog of +110 to +150 and 5-1 in their last 6 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their games at home.

System - All teams where the total is 7 or less (SEATTLE) - below average AL hitting team (AVG <=.265) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA <=3.33), with a very good bullpen whose ERA is 3.33 or better on the season have seen the UNDER go 101-58 (64%) since 1997. BET THE UNDER 7!

5* MLB Blockbuster Blue Chip Top Play

---St Louis Cardinals -116---

This is a great spot to back the Cardinals at home as a small favorite against the Pirates. St Louis will be starting Lance Lynn, who is not getting near the respect he deserves for how well he's pitched this season. Lynn is 14-8 with a 2.79 ERA over 27 starts. He's got an even stronger 2.34 ERA and 1.187 WHIP over 15 home starts and a 1.42 ERA and 1.158 WHIP over his last 3. Pittsburgh will send out Gerrit Cole, who has put together two quality starts since returning to the rotation. They key thing is both of those starts came at home. Cole has not been the same pitcher on the road, where he's got a 4.01 ERA and 1.430 WHIP over 7 starts.

Key Trends - St Louis is 17-8 in their last 25 against division opponents, 12-4 in their last 16 games at home, 26-9 in Lynn's last 35 starts as a home favorite and 21-9 in his last 30 starts following a team loss in their last outing.

System - All teams with a money line of -100 to -150 (ST LOUIS) - poor power team - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game on the season, after scoring 8 runs or more are 247-142 (64%) against the money line over the last 5 seasons. BET THE CARDINALS -116!

5* MLB Blue Chip Blockbuster Top Play

---Phillies/Mets UNDER 7---

I don't expect to see many runs scored in tonight's showdown between the Mets and Phillies. While both of these teams are all but eliminated from making the postseason, there's something to play for in this series. New York has just a .5-game lead over last place Philadelphia. I look for both teams to take their 3-game set seriously, as no one wants to finish last in their division.

The Mets will send out Jacob deGrom, who has a sensational 1.93 ERA and 1.114 WHIP over 7 home starts. In his only start against the Phillies this season, deGrom allowed 3 runs on just 3 hits with 11 strikeouts. The only mistake he made was allowing a 3-run homer in the 7th. New York will send out David Buchanan, who hasn't allowed more than 3 earned runs in each of his 10 starts. Buchanan has faced the Mets twice this season and both times allowed just 3 earned runs.

Key Trends/System - UNDER is 5-1 in Buchanan's last 6 road starts and 4-0-1 in his last 5 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. The UNDER is also 5-1 in the Mets last 6 home games against a right-handed starter, 6-2 in deGrom's last 8 starts following a team loss and 4-0-1 in their last 5 home games against a team with a losing road record. Add it up and that's a 24-4-2 (86%) system telling us to BET THE UNDER 7!

5* MLB Blue Chip Blockbuster Top Play

---New York Yankees -119---

This is a great spot to jump on the Yankees as a small road favorite. New York cruised to an 8-4 win against Detroit's David Price last night and should be able to keep the offense rolling against rookie starter Kyle Lobstein. Lobstein pitched 5 2/3 innings of relief against the Twins this past weekend and gave up 3 runs on 4 hits and 4 walks. His lack of control is going to keep him from pitching deep in this game, which will allow the Yankees to take advantage of a bad Tigers' bullpen that comes in with a 5.08 ERA and 1.571 WHIP at home.

New York will send out Hiroki Kuroda, who has a 3.77 ERA and 1.202 WHIP over 12 road starts and a 3.63 ERA and 1.211 WHIP over his last 3 outings. He's faced the Yankees 5 times in his career and has not allowed more than 3 earned runs.

Key Trends/System - New York is 8-2 in their last 10 road games as a favorite of -110 to -150, 6-1 in their last 7 with a total set at 7-8.5 runs, 7-1 in their last 8 games played on Thursday and a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 against a left-handed starter. Detroit is 1-10 in their last 11 games as a home dog of +110 to +150. Add it up and that's a 35-5 (88%) system telling us to BET THE YANKEES -119!

5* MLB Blue Chip Blockbuster Top Play

---Toronto Blue Jays -132---

This is a great spot to jump on the Blue Jays. Toronto starter Marcus Stroman's both career starts against the Red Sox have come this season and in those two starts he's posted a 0.64 ERA and 0.786 WHIP, allowing just 1 run on 7 hits over 14 innings of work. The Blue Jays are desperate for a win tonight, as they have dropped 3 straight and 16 of their last 22 overall to fall 10 games back in the AL East and 6.5 behind Seattle for the final Wild Card spot.

Key Trends/System - Boston is 1-7 in their last 8 against a right-handed starter, 1-5 in their last 6 after scoring 5+ runs and 0-6 in their last 6 with a total set at 7-8.5 runs. Toronto's won 5 of their last 7 with Stroman on the mound at home. Add it up and that's a 23-4 (85%) system telling us to BET THE BLUE JAYS -132!

5* MLB Blue Chip Blockbuster Top Play

---Rays/Orioles UNDER 7.5---

This is a great spot to jump on the UNDER. Tampa Bay's Alex Cobb has a 0.44 ERA and .0836 WHIP over his last 3 starts and a 1.89 ERA and 1.132 WHIP over 6 career starts against the Orioles. Baltimore will send out Wei-Yin Chen, who is 6-2 with a 3.65 ERA and 1.243 WHIP at home and has a 3.51 ERA and 1.275 WHIP over 11 career starts against the Rays.

Key Trends/System - UNDER is 22-9 in Chen's last 31 starts when listed as a favorite of -100 to -150, 21-7 in his last 28 starts against an opponent who just scored 2 runs or less and 20-7-1 in his last 28 home starts with a total of 7-8.5 runs. UNDER is 6-0 in Cobb's last 6 starts, 5-0 in his last 5 with a total set at 7-8.5 and 4-0 in the Rays last 4 after allowing 5+ runs. Add it up and that's a 78-23 (72%) system telling us to BET THE UNDER 7.5!

5* MLB Blockbuster Blue Chip Top Play

---San Francisco Giants -1.5 (+126)

The Giants are going to be all business Monday night when they take on the Rockies at home. San Francisco last the final 2 games of their most recent series at Washington, yet still hold a slim lead for the second NL Wild Card spot. Not only do I expect the Giants to win, but I look for them to do so rather easily. San Francisco will send out red-hot starter Jake Peavy, who has allowed just 2 earned in each of his last 2 starts. Colorado on the other hand will send out Tyler Matzek, who is 0-4 with a 6.10 ERA and 1.696 WHIP over 7 road starts (0-7 team record).

Key Trends/System - Colorado is 2-16 in the 2nd half over 18 road games and have been outscored in these contests by an average of 2.4 runs/game. San Francisco is 17-2 in their last 19 against NL teams who are allowing 4.8 runs or more per game and have won these by an average of 3.3 runs/game. Add it up and that's a 33-4 (89%) system telling us to BET THE GIANTS -1.5!

5* MLB Blue Chip Blockbuster Top Play

---Angels/A's UNDER 7.5---

The books have set the mark too high for tonight's showdown between the Angels and A's. I expect both teams to treat this like a playoff game and with the extra pressure I look for the starting pitching to dominate, especially with the likes of Scott Kazmir and Jered Weaver on the mound. Kazmir has a 2.28 ERA and 0.916 WHIP over 12 home starts and Weaver has 2.53 ERA and 1.086 WHIP over 28 career career starts vs the A's.

System - UNDER is 77-38 (67%) over the last 5 seasons when you have Home teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 (OAKLAND) - with a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is better than 70%, with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 2.00 the last 5 games. BET THE UNDER 7.5!

5* MLB Blue Chip Blockbuster Top Play

---Milwaukee Brewers -137---

This is a great spot to jump on the Brewers after losing the series opener to the Pirates last night. Milwaukee hasn't lost consecutive games at home to the same team in over a month and I don't expect that streak to be broken with the edge they have on the mound. The Brewers will send out Willy Peralta, who has caught fire of late. Peralta has a 1.89 ERA over his last 3 starts. On top of that he's got a 2.25 ERA over 3 career starts against the Pirates and has allowed just 1 earned run in each of his last two outings. Pittsburgh starter, Edinson Volquez on the other hand has a 4.57 ERA over 15 career starts against the Brewers.

Key Trends/System - Peralta is 11-2 in his last 13 home starts against a team with a winning record, 12-4 in his last 16 starts vs a NL team that's averaging 4.3 or less runs in the 2nd half of the season, 8-2 in his last 10 starts as a favorite and 7-1 in his last 8 starts following a quality start last time out. Add it up and that's a 38-9 (81%) system telling us to BET THE BREWERS -137!

5* MLB Blue Chip AL East Game of the Month

---Toronto Blue Jays -117--

This is a great spot to back the Blue Jays as a small home favorite. Toronto is returning home after a brutal 8-game road trip that saw them go just 2-6. They were able to get a win in their last away game at Milwaukee, which was a huge momentum builder going into their day off. I look for the Blue Jays to build off that with a win tonight against the Rays. Tampa Bay comes in having lost 4 of 5.

One of the big reasons I like Toronto in this one is they will be sending Marcus Stroman on the mound. While Stroman was rocked for 5 runs before getting out of the first inning of his last start at Chicago (White Sox), he's got a dominant 1.62 ERA and 0.808 WHIP over 8 home starts and will be taking on a Rays' offense that is average a mere 3.1 runs and hitting an awful .184 with a .228 OBP over their last 7 games.

Key Trends - Tampa Bay is 9-21 in their last 30 road games after a combined score of 4 runs or less in their last game, while Smyly is just 4-11 in his last 15 starts after a win and 4-11 in his last 15 with a total set between 7-8.5 runs. Toronto is 4-1 in their last 5 vs a left-handed starter and 11-4 in their last 15 home games against a team with a losing record.

System - Road teams (TAMPA BAY) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 or better on the season (AL) against opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.100 or better on the season-AL are 115-201 (36%) against the money line over the last 5 seasons. BET THE BLUE JAYS -117!

5* AL Central Blue Chip Game of the Month

---Indians/Twins UNDER 7---

I'm expecting a low-scoring affair in Thursday's series finale between the Twins and Indians. Minnesota will be sending out Phil Hughes, who has a 2.61 ERA over his last 5 starts and has not allowed more than 1 earned run in each of his last 3. Cleveland will send out Corey Kluber, who has been one of the hottest starters in the game with a 1.31 ERA over his last 8 starts. Kluber hasn't allowed more than 1 earned run in 5 straight starts and 2 or less in 11 of his last 12.

Key Trends - UNDER is 12-3-1 in Cleveland's last 16 games following a win, 22-8-1 in their last 31 after allowing 2 runs or less, 6-0 in Kluber's last 6 road starts, 7-0 in Hughes' last 7 starts with a total of 7 to 8.5 runs, 4-0 in his last 4 starts at home and 4-0 in his last 4 starts as an underdog.

System - Teams where the total is 7 or less (MINNESOTA) - with a starting pitcher whose gives up 7 or more hits/start, with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.50 over his last 3 starts has seen the UNDER go 37-14 (73%) since 1997. BET THE UNDER 7!

5* MLB Blue Chip Blockbuster Top Play

---Cleveland Indians -117---

This is a great spot to jump on the Indians as a small road favorite against the Twins. Cleveland dealt Minnesota a crushing loss last night, as the Indians rallied from a 0-5 first inning deficit to win 7-5. The Twins have now lost 3 straight and I just don't see them responded well from that defeat, especially given the fact that they have nothing to play for being 12.5-games back of a Wild Card spot.

I also like the edge the Indians have on the mound. Cleveland will be starting rookie T.J. House, who despite not great numbers hasn't allowed more than 3 earned runs in 7 straight starts. Minnesota on the other hand will counter with Ricky Nolasco, who was rocked at home by the Royals for 5 runs on 7 hits in just 6 innings in his first start back from the DL. Nolasco clearly isn't right in 2014.

Key Trends - Minnesota is 9-23 in their last 32 home games in the month of August, 2-8 in their last 10 against a left-handed starter and 2-6 in Nolasco's last 8 starts following a team loss. Cleveland is 42-20 in their last 62 road games as a favorite, 11-4 in their last 15 during game 2 of a series and 4-1 in House's last 5 starts vs a team with a losing record.

System - Teams (MINNESOTA) with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.600 to 1.700 on the season-AL and has an ERA >= 6.50 over his last 10 starts are just 13-38 (25%) against the money line over the last 5 seasons. BET THE INDIANS!

5* MLB Blockbuster Blue Chip Top Play

---Detroit Tigers -117---

This is a great spot to jump on the Tigers as a small road favorite. Detroit will be sending out reigning Cy Young winner Max Scherzer, who comes in on fire with a 1.17 ERA and 0.913 WHIP over his last 3 starts. Scherzer has a strong 2.56 ERA over 7 career starts against the Rays and in his lone start vs Tampa this season he allowed just 1 run on 2 hits over 8 innings of a 8-1 Tigers win.

Key Trends - Detroit is 38-13 in Scherzer's last 51 starts as a favorite, 15-6 in his last 21 raod starts vs a team with a losing record and 4-1 in his last 5 starts during game 1 of a series.

System - Underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (TAMPA BAY) - after 2 straight losses by 2 runs or less against opponent after a loss by 6 runs or more are a mere 11-44 (20%) against the money line since 1997. BET TIGERS -117!

5* MLB Blue Chip Blockbuster Top Play

---Kansas City Royals -1.5 (+103)

This is a great spot to jump on the Royals run line in their opener against the Twins. Minnesota will be sending out Trevor May, who has looked awful in his two appearances this season. May started for the Twins on Aug. 9 and allowed 4 runs on 3 hits and 7 walks in just 2 innings of work. He followed that up by allowing 2 runs on 3 hits and 2 walks in 2 1/3 innings of relief. May has no control of the strikezone and I don't expect him to be around long against the Royals red-hot offense that's averaging 5.0 runs over their last 7 games. Kansas City should be able to put up more than enough runs to win here by 2+, as starter Jason Vargas should keep Minnesota's offense in check. Vargas has a 2.56 ERA and 1.153 WHIP over 10 road starts and is 2-0 with a 0.86 ERA in three starts against the Twins this season.

Key Trends/System - Vargas is 8-3 with a run line of +1.5 (-155) to -1.5 (+135) this season, while Minnesota is 9-24 against the run line in their last 33 home games after 3 straight against a division rival and 9-20 in their last 29 home games with a total set at 8.5-10 runs. Add it up and that's a 52-21 (71%) system telling us to BET THE ROYALS -1.5!

5* MLB Blockbuster Blue Chip Top Play

---Toronto Blue Jays -134---

This a great spot to jump on the Blue Jays, as they have a huge edge on the mound with Drew Hutchison going up against Scott Carroll. In 13 starts this season, Carroll has a 6.00 ERA and 1.639 WHIP. He's faced Toronto once earlier this season and was rocked for 5 runs on 9 hits in just 5 innings of work.

Key Trends - Chicago is 2-14 in their last 16 after 10 straight games with 1 error or less, 3-8 in their last 11 against a right-handed starter and 1-6 in Carroll's last 7 starts with a total set at 9-10.5 runs. Toronto is 10-1 in their last 11 with a total set at 9-10.5 runs and 4-1 in Hutchison's last 5 road starts against a team with a losing record.

System - Any team (CHI WHITE SOX) - with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.600 to 1.700 on the season-AL, with a cold starting pitcher- ERA >= 6.50 over his last 10 starts are 12-38 (24%) against the money line over the last 5 seasons. BET THE BLUE JAYS -134!

5* MLB Blockbuster Blue Chip Top Play

---Mariners/Tigers UNDER 6.5---

I'm expecting runs to be hard to come by in tonight's showdown between the Mariners and Tigers, which will feature two dominant starters in Seattle's Felix Hernandez and Detroit's David Price. Hernandez hasn't allowed more than 2 earned runs in a ridiculous 16 straight starts and has recorded at least 7 innings in everyone of those starts. The only real concern here is Price, who has struggled of late. However, Price has faced the Mariners twice this season and in those two starts has allowed just 4 runs on 13 hits with 22 strikeouts in 17 innings of work.

Key Trends/System - UNDER is 20-7 in Price's last 27 home starts against teams who average 2.75 or less extra base hits, 30-13 in his last 43 home starts in the second half of the season, 35-19 in the Tigers' last 54 games with a total of 7 or less, 14-2-1 in Hernandez's last 17 road starts with a total of 6.5 or lower and 10-2 in his last 12 starts vs the AL Central. Add it up and that's a 109-43-1 (72%) system telling us to BET THE UNDER 6.5!

5* MLB Blockbuster Over/Under Game of the Month

---Padres/Cardinals UNDER 7---

This is a great spot to jump on the UNDER in tonight's matchup between the Padres and Cardinals. San Diego will be sending out Tyson Ross, who has a sensational 1.53 ERA over his last 8 starts, while the Cardinals counter with Lance Lynn and his 2.03 ERA over his last 7 starts. Both of these pitchers have been UNDER machines this year. Ross has seen 17 of his 24 starts go below the mark, while Lynn has cashed in on 15 of 23 starts. These two pitchers faced off against each other back on July 29 in San Diego and each allowed just 1 earned run in what ended up being a 3-1 Cardinals' victory.

Key Trends - UNDER is 13-3 in Padres last 16 games vs a starter who allows 0.5 or less home runs/start, 10-1 in Ross' last 11 starts following a loss,  20-8 in Lynn's last 28 starts against a team with a losing record, 13-4 in Lynn's 17 starts at night this season and 9-1 in the Cardinals last 10 home games after going under the total in 3 straight games.

System - Play Under - Home teams where the total is 7 or less (ST LOUIS) - very bad NL offensive team (<=3.8 runs/game) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA<=3.33), after a one run win. This system is 38-14 (73%) since 1997. BET THE UNDER 7!

5* MLB Blockbuster Blue Chip Top Play

---Milwaukee Brewers -127---

This is a great spot to back the Brewers, as we find Milwaukee showing big time value after losing the last two games in the series to the Cubs. The Brewers have a clear advantage on the mound in this one with Chicago sending out the worthless Edwin Jackson. In 24 starts this season, Jackson has compiled an awful 5.54 ERA and 1.557 WHIP. He rarely goes deep into a game and a number of his worse starts have come in day games. Milwaukee will send out Michael Fiers, who was sensational in his 2014 debut, allowing just 1 run on 3 hits over 8 innings against the Dodgers.

Key Trends - Milwaukee is 14-5 in their last 19 games revenging 2 straight losses where they scored 2 runs or less, 8-3 in their last 11 road games as a favorite of -110 to -150 and 4-1 in their last 5 vs a right-handed starter. Chicago is 26-53 in their last 79 following a win, 6-21 in their last 27 during game 4 of a series and 4-17 in Jackson's last 21 starts following a team loss the last time he took the mound.

System - Any team (MILWAUKEE) - after 3 straight games where they stranded 5 or less runners on base, playing on Thursday are 52-22 (70%) against the money line over the last 5 seasons. BET THE BREWERS -127!

5* MLB Blockbuster Blue Chip Top Play

---Tampa Bay Rays -138---

This is a great spot to back the Rays. Tampa Bay will be eager to get back on the field after yesterday's disappointing 3-4 loss in 14 innings and I believe they have a big enough edge on the mound to do just that. The Rays will be sending out Chris Archer, who has won each of his last 4 starts and has an impressive 1.95 ERA over his last 4 starts on the road. The Rangers will counter with Miles Mikolas, who is 0-3 at home with a 13.17 ERA and 2.414 WHIP, with opposing hitters hitting .406 against him.

Key Trends - Tampa Bay is 9-1 in their last 10 road games as a favorite of -110 to -150, 8-2 in their last 10 after scoring 2 runs or less, 12-4 in their last 16 against a starter with a WHIP worse than 1.30, 12-5 in their last 17 against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games and 10-3 in their last 13 against a right-handed starter.

System - Road teams (TAMPA BAY) - poor hitting team (AVG <=.260) against a poor starting pitcher (ERA>=6.20) -AL, with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start are 31-10 (76%) against the money line over the last 5 seasons (3-0 this season). BET TAMPA BAY -138!

5* NL Blue Chip Game of the Month

---St Louis Cardinals -145---

This is a great spot to jump on the Cardinals with their ace Adam Wainwright on the mound. Wainwright bounced back from an ugly start at home against the Brewers with a strong outing vs the Red Sox, where he allowed just 2 runs over 7 innings. Wainwright is a dominant 9-3 with a 1.32 ERA and 0.920 WHIP over 13 road starts this season and 4-1 with a 2.25 ERA over 6 career starts against the Marlins. With Jarred Cosart starting for Miami, St Louis has a clear edge on the mound. Cosart has a 4.51 ERA and 1.447 WHIP over 21 starts in 2014 and has an ugly 6.75 ERA and 1.750 WHIP over his last 3. The Cardinals offense should have no problem scoring enough runs to secure a victory.

Key Trends/System - St Louis is 22-5 in Wainwright's last 27 starts against a team with a losing record, 24-9 in their last 33 revenging a one-run loss to an opponent, 20-7 in Wainwright's last 27 road starts with a total of 7.5 or less and 12-1 in his last 13 as a road favorite of -125 to -150. Add it up and that's a 78-22 (78%) system telling us to BET THE CARDINALS -145!

5* MLB Blockbuster Blue Chip Top Play

---San Diego Padres -151---

This is a great spot to back the Padres at home. The Rockies are an MLB-worst  18-41 on the road this season. The fact that Colorado was able to win 5-3 at Arizona yesterday actually makes this an even stronger play. The Rockies haven't won consecutive games on the road since the middle of June!

Adding to that is the fact that the Padres have a huge advantage on the mound with Jesse Hahn going up against Jordan Lyles. Hahn has been sensational since entering the rotation. He's 7-3 with a 2.28 ERA and 1.062 WHIP. Lyles on the other hand is making just his 2nd start since returning from a 2 month stint on the DL. He was tagged for 4 runs on 6 hits and a walk in 6 innings of his last start and I look for him to struggle based on his poor history against the Padres. Lyles is 1-3 with a 6.93 ERA and 1.946 WHIP over 5 career starts against San Diego.

Key Trends - San Diego is 9-2 in their last 11 after 3 straight games without a homer, 7-2 in their last 8 home games and 5-0 in Hahn's last 5 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their last game.

System - All teams with a money line of -100 to -150 (SAN DIEGO) - poor power team - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game on the season, after scoring 8 runs or more are 240-135 (64%) over the last 5 seasons. BET THE PADRES -151!

5* MLB Blockbuster Blue Chip Top Play

---St Louis Cardinals -124---

System - Any team (ST LOUIS) - very bad NL offensive team (<=3.8 runs/game) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA<=3.33), after 2 straight losses by 4 runs or more are 46-21 (69%) against the money line since 1997. BET THE CARDINALS +124

5* MLB Blue Chip Over/Under Game of the Month

---Tigers/Blue Jays UNDER 8---

This is a great spot to jump on the UNDER with the Tigers and Blue Jays both sending out dominant starters. Detroit will be starting 2013 Cy Young winner Max Scherzer, who is 13-4 with a 3.24 ERA and 1.196 over 23 starts. In his last 8 starts he's allowed 3 earned runs or fewer and 4 times during this stretch only allowed a single run. Needless to say there's a good chance he limits the Blue Jays offense in this one.

Toronto will counter with Marcus Stroman, who has been sensational as a starter. In 12 starts Stroman has a 2.66 ERA and 1.070 WHIP and has been even better at home, where he's posted a 1.54 ERA and 0.814 WHIP. Stroman allowed 5 runs in 3 innings in his last start, but I'm not concerned. He gave up 5 runs at LA back on July 9 and in the very next start at home limited the Rangers to 4-hits over 7 shutout innings. Stroman has allowed 3 or fewer runs in all but two starts this season.

Key Trends/System - UNDER is 15-5-1 in Detroit's last 21 games against a team with a winning record, 20-8 in Scherzer's last 28 starts as a road favorite and 23-11-1 in Toronto's last 35 home starts against a team with a winning record. Add it up and that's a 58-24-2 (71%) system telling us to BET THE UNDER 8!

5* MLB Blockbuster Blue Chip Top Play

---Baltimore Orioles -130---

This is a great spot to back the Orioles at home against the Cardinals. Baltimore is a major league best 22-10 since July 1 and are a red-hot 8-3 over their last 11. I see no reason why they won't add another win to their resume given tonight's pitching matchup. The Orioles will send out Chris Tillman, who has a 2.78 ERA and 1.250 WHIP over 11 home starts and a 2.00 ERA and 1.00 WHIP over his last 3 outings. One of the advantages that Tillman will have is that this will be his 1st career start against the Cardinals. On the other side of things, St Louis will be starting newly acquired Justin Masterson, who has an awful 6.80 ERA and 1.804 WHIP over 10 road starts, 10.64 ERA and 2.636 WHIP over his last 3 and in his lone start against the Orioles this season he was rocked for 5 runs on 8 hits and 3 walks in just 5 2/3 innings of work.

Key Trends - St Louis is 1-4 in their last 5 during game 1 of a series, while Baltimore is 6-0 in their last 6 during game 1 of a series, 8-2 in their last 10 interleague games as a favorite of -110 to -150, 10-2 after scoring 2 runs or less and 21-6 in Tillman's last 27 starts against an opponent who scored 5+ runs in their last game.

System - Any team (BALTIMORE) - bad AL offensive team (<=4.5 runs/game) against a below average NL starter (ERA= 5.20 to 5.70), with a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 or better on the season are 32-12 (73%) against the money line since 1997. BET THE ORIOLES -130!

5* MLB Blockbuster Blue Chip Top Play

---Los Angeles Dodgers +105---

The Dodgers have won two straight over their cross-town rivals and I look for them to add another win to the resume tonight. The Dodgers have a clear edge on the mound in this one, as they send out Hyun-Jin Ryu against the struggling C.J. Wilson. Ryu's best starts this season have come on the road, where he's 8-2 with a 2.89 ERA and 1.148 WHIP over 11 starts. As for Wilson, he's been awful of late. In his last 5 starts, Wilson has allowed 25 runs over just 18 innings and opponents are hitting a ridiculous .416 against him during this stretch. In his last start he didn't even make it past the 2nd inning before being pulled after allowing 6 runs on 6 hits.

It's also worth noting that in Ryu's only career start against the Angels, he tossed a complete game 2-hit shutout. Wilson on the other hand was rocked for 6 runs on 9 hits in just 4 2/3 innings in his most recent start against the Dodgers.

Key Trends - Ryu is 22-12 in his last 34 starts with a money line of +125 to -125, 25-12 in his last 37 starts at night and 9-2 in his last 11 road starts with a total set at 7-8.5 runs. Adding to this is that the Angels are just 1-6 in their last 7 interleague games against a left-handed starter.

System - Home teams with an OBP of .260 or worse over their last 3 games, with a cold starting pitcher- WHIP >= 2.000 over his last 3 starts are just 13-43 (33%) against the money line over the last 5 seasons. BET THE DODGERS +105!

5* MLB Blue Chip Interleague Game of the Month

---Los Angeles Angels -138---

This is a great spot to back the Angels at home after splitting their two-game set at Dodger Stadium. What was impressive about the split is that it came against the Dodgers top two starters in Greinke and Kershaw, both of which they were able to get to early. I expect an even bigger offensive explosion at home, as the Angels will go up against the struggling Dan Haren. In his has 3 starts, Haren has an awful 9.00 ERA and 1.929 WHIP and he's failed to get past the 5th inning in 3 of his last 4 outings.

On the other side of things, the Angels will send out Matt Shoemaker, who comes 8-2 with a 3.88 ERA overall (12 starts) and is a dominant 4-1 with a 2.76 ERA and 1.205 WHIP over 7 starts at Angel Stadium. Safe to say the home team has a clear edge on the mound in this one.

Key Trends - Angels are 34-14 as a home favorite of -110 or higher this season, 28-8 in their last 36 home games with a total set at 8-8.5 runs, 24-9 in their last 33 games against a right-handed starter and 40-17 in their last 57 games vs a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.

System - Any team (LA ANGELS) - average AL offensive team (4.7 to 5.2 runs/game) against an average NL starter (ERA=4.20 to 5.20), with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start are 54-18 (75%) against the spread since 1997. BET THE ANGELS -138!

5* MLB Blue Chip Blockbuster Top Play

---Cincinnati Reds +107---

This is a great spot to back the Reds after getting worked in the opener 7-1 by the Indians. Cincinnati has a huge edge on the mound with their ace Johnny Cueto going up against Cleveland's Josh Tomlin. Cueto comes in with a strong 2.36 ERA and 1.022 WHIP over 11 road starts and has a sizzling 1.42 ERA and 1.105 WHIP over his last 3 starts. Most importantly, Cueto has owned Cleveland over his career. He's 3-0 with a 2.10 ERA and dominant 0.990 WHIP over 5 starts (5-0 team record). As for Tomlin, he's just 1-4 with a 5.58 ERA and 1.363 WHIP at home and comes in with a 5.94 ERA over his last 3 starts and career 4.07 ERA vs the Reds.

Key Trends/System - Cueto is 23-8 in his last 31 starts after allowing 1 or less earned runs in his last outing, while Tomlin is 0-9 in his last 9 starts after a game where he didn't issue a single walk. Add it up and that's a 32-8 (80%) system telling us to BET THE REDS +107!

5* MLB Blue Chip Blockbuster Top Play

---Detroit Tigers -119---

This is a great spot to back the Tigers as a small favorite against the Yankees. Detroit comes in having won 3 straight and when the Tigers get hot they tend to keep it rolling. I certainly expect that to be the case given today's pitching matchup.

Detroit will send out Max Scherzer, who is 13-3 with a 3.27 ERA and 1.171 WHIP over 22 starts. Rarely do we get to the opportunity to back Scherzer at this good of a price, but luckily the Yankees are such a public team that they drive the price down.

New York is sending out Brandon McCarthy, who had pitched well in pinstripes before giving up 4 runs on 9 hits over just 6 innings of work in his last start. McCarthy is a streaky pitcher and right now its trending in the wrong direction. Not to mention the Tigers come in averaging 5 runs while hitting .297 with a .353 OBP over their last 7 games.

Key Trends - Detroit is 17-7 in their last 24 games following a win, 16-5 in Scherzer's last 21 starts during game 1 of a series and 29-6 in his last 35 starts against an AL team who is hitting .260 or worse.

System - Teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (DETROIT) - with a well rested bullpen - threw 4 innings or less over last 3 games are 38-18 (68%) against the money line in August games over the last 5 seasons. BET THE TIGERS -119!

5* MLB Blue Chip Blockbuster Top Play

---San Diego Padres -125---

This is a great spot to back the Padres at home. San Diego is playing well with 4 wins in their last 5 games and are swinging the bats well with 27 runs during this stretch. The Padres don't figure to need a ton of offense to get a win with their young ace Tyson Ross on the mound. Ross has been absolutely dominant of late, throwing six or more innings while allowing 2 runs or less over eight consecutive starts. Hard to not like his chances of dominant a Braves offense that has scored just 6 runs over their last 4 games, especially with this being the first time most of Atlanta's players have ever faced him.

Key Trends/System - Atlanta is 0-7 in their last 7 road games against a team with a winning home record and 0-12 in their last 12 road games against a NL starter with an ERA of 2.70 or better. San Diego is 6-0 in their last 6 with a total set at 6.5 or lower, 4-0 in their last 4 as a favorite of -110 to -150 and 4-0 in Ross' last 4 starts during game 3 of a series. Add it up and that's a perfect 33-0 (100%) system telling us to BET THE PADRES -125!

5* MLB Blue Chip Run Line Game of the Month

---Detroit Tigers -1.5 (-102)---

The Tigers should have no problem cruising to an easy win on Saturday, which is why I have no problem playing the run line. Detroit has a massive edge on the mound with Rick Porcello going up against the inexperienced Tyler Matzek, who is 2-4 with a 4.28 ERA and 1.372 WHIP over 9 starts. Matzek has pitched better of late, but he's also faced the light hitting Pirates (twice) and Twins in his last three starts. Detroit comes in having scored 19 runs on 42 hits over their last 4 games. Not to mention Porcello has a 1.71 ERA and 0.905 WHIP over his last 3 starts. Tigers should win by 2+ rather easily.

Key Trends/System - Colorado is 1-11 against the run line in their last 12 games after allowing 4 runs or less in 3 straight games, while the Tigers are 10-3 vs the run line at home in interleague games over the last 2 seasons. Add it up and that's a 21-4 (84%) system telling us to BET THE TIGERS -1.5!

5* MLB Blockbuster Blue Chip Top Play

---St Louis Cardinals -148---

This is a great spot to back the Cardinals at home with their ace Adam Wainwright on the mound. St Louis got a big win to avoid getting swept in San Diego and I look for them to carry over that momentum behind their ace. Wainwright has been dominant all season, posting a 1.92 ERA and 0.962 WHIP over 21 starts. Hard to not like his chances of throwing a gem given how bad the Brewers have been swinging the bat. Milwaukee is hitting a mere .193 with a .241 OBP over their last 7 games. Wainwright recently faced the Brewers in Milwaukee on July 12 and limited them 2 runs on 5 hits over 7 innings.

Key Trends - St Louis is 24-6 in their last 30 home games against NL teams with an OBP of .315 or worse in the second half of the season and 26-5 over the last 2 seasons when Wainwright takes the mound against an NL team with an OBP of .315 or worse.

System - Play Against Underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (MILWAUKEE) - below average hitting team (AVG <=.255) against a very good starting pitcher (ERA <=3.00) -NL, with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.000 over his last 3 starts. They are just 10-50 (17%) against the money line over the last 5 seasons. BET THE CARDINALS -148!

5* MLB Blue Chip Blockbuster Top Play

---Baltimore Orioles +105---

This is an excellent spot and great price to back the Orioles at home against the Angels. Baltimore has already taken each of the first two games of the series and are a strong 7-2 in their last 9 games overall. The Angels are simply getting too much respect on the road, as they should not be favored in this matchup. The Orioles will send out Bud Norris, who has a strong 3.02 ERA and 1.186 WHIP at home and is 4-0 with a 0.52 ERA and 1.067 WHIP over 5 career starts versus the Angels. LA will be starting Tyler Skaggs, who has an ugly 6.23 ERA and 1.326 WHIP over his last 3 starts.

Key Trends - Angels are 3-13 in their last 16 road games vs an AL starter with a ERA of 4.00 or better, 9-19 in their last 28 when they come in with an OBP of .300 or worse over their last 10 games and 2-7 in their last 9 after losing each of the first two games of a series.

System - Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (LA ANGELS) - revenging a loss vs opponent as a road favorite, a good team (54% to 62%) playing a team with a winning record are just 34-64 (35%) against the money line over the last 5 seasons. BET THE ORIOLES +105!

5* MLB Blockbuster Blue Chip Top Play

---New York Yankees -131---

This is a great spot to back the Yankees against the struggling Rangers. New York cashed in a win over Texas last night, snapping their 3-game losing streak. The Yankees are clearly playing the better baseball between these two teams, as the Rangers have won a mere 7-games since June 17. New York has a clear edge on the mound in this one. Hiroki Kuroda has a 3.88 ERA and 1.226 WHIP over 10 road starts and has a dominant 2.08 ERA and 0.923 WHIP over 5 career starts vs the Rangers. Texas on the other hand will send out Colby Lewis, who is an awful 1-6 with a 8.40 ERA and 1.912 WHIP at home and has a ugly 4.54 ERA and 1.430 WHIP over 6 career starts against the Rangers.

Key Trends - Rangers are 1-8 in their last 9 home games after a contest where their bullpen gave up 4+ runs and just 2-17 in their last 19 as a home underdog. New York is 12-2 in their last 14 road games with a total set at 9.0-10.5 and 8-1 in their last 9 road games when listed as a favorite -110 to -150.

System - Play On - Road teams with a money line of -100 to -150 (NY YANKEES) - with a team on base percentage .320 or worse on the season (AL) against opponent with a cold starting pitcher- ERA >= 7.00 over his last 3 starts are 65-21 (76%) against the money line over the last 5 seasons. BET THE YANKEES -131!

5* MLB Blockbuster Blue Chip Top Play

---Toronto Blue Jays -101---

This is a great spot to back the Blue Jays. Toronto comes in playing extremely well with 8 wins in their last 10 games. Boston on the other hand has been in a slump here of late. The Red Sox are just 1-6 in their last 7. I'll take my chances on the Blue Jays with Marcus Stroman on the mound against Rubby De La Rosa. Stroman has a 2.55 ERA and 0.905 WHIP over his last 3 starts, while De La Rosa has an ugly 5.62 ERA and 1.625 WHIP Over his last 3. Adding to this is the fact that the Blue Jays are 15-8 in their last 23 games at Boston and Stroman threw 7 shutout innings vs the Red Sox earlier this season.

System - Play Against - Home teams (BOSTON) - bad offensive team (<=4.5 runs/game) against a very good starting pitcher (ERA<=3.50) (AL), after a loss by 8 runs or more are just 18-53 (25%) against the money line since 1997. BET THE BLUE JAYS!

5* MLB Blockbuster Blue Chip Top Play

---Chicago Cubs -143---

System - Play Against - Road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (COLORADO) - allowing 4.8 or more runs/game on the season (NL), in July games are 43-7 (86%) against the money line over the last 5 seasons. BET THE CUBS -143!

5* MLB Blockbuster Blue Chip Top Play

---Pittsburgh Pirates -113---

System - Play Against - Any team (COLORADO) - with a team batting average of .280 or better on the season (NL), after allowing 3 runs or less 2 straight games are 37-15 (71%) against the money line over the last 5 seasons. 

5* MLB Blockbuster Blue Chip Top Play

---Cleveland Indians -104---

System - Play On - Any team (CLEVELAND) - team with a poor OBP (<=.320) against a good starting pitcher (WHIP=1.300 to 1.350) -AL, with a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start are 70-32 (69%) against the money line over the last 3 seasons. BET INDIANS -104!

5* MLB Blockbuster Blue Chip Top Play

---Seattle Mariners -182---

This is a great spot to back the Mariners at home with their ace Felix Hernandez on the mound. Hernandez is 11-2 with a 2.02 ERA and 0.899 WHIP over 21 starts and comes in red-hot with a 1.57 ERA and 0.783 WHIP over his last 3 starts. The Orioles on the other hand will send out Kevin Gausman, who is just 4-3 with a 4.04 ERA and 1.394 WHIP over 8 starts. In his last start on the road, Gausman was tagged for 5 runs on 9 hits in just 4 innings of work. I look for Seattle to provide plenty of run support to secure an easy win for the Hernandez in this one.

Key Trends - Baltimore is 0-4 in their last 4 games against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15, while the Mariners are 20-10 in their last 30 against a team with a winning record, 12-2 in Hernandez's last 14 starts as a favorite, 6-0 in his last 6 against a team with a winning record and 5-0 in his last 5 following a quality start in his last outing.

System - Play On - All favorites with a money line of -150 or more (SEATTLE) - below average hitting team (AVG <=.265) against a good starting pitcher (ERA <=4.20) -AL, with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.100 over his last 10 games are 86-20 (81%) against the money line since 1997. BET THE MARINERS!

5* MLB Blue Chip Over/Under Top Play

---Tigers/Angels UNDER 7---

Two of baseball's best starters will take the mound Thursday night in Los Angeles. The Tigers' Max Scherzer is 11-3 with a 3.34 ERA and 1.197 WHIP, while the Angels' Garrett Richards is 11-2 with a 2.47 ERA and 1.028 WHIP. Both have been exceptionally good of late. Scherzer has a 1.74 ERA over his last 3 and Richards has a 0.81 ERA over his last 3. In 4 career starts against LA, Scherzer has a 2.16 ERA and 0.900 WHIP. In 2 career starts against the Tigers, Richards has a 0.00 ERA and 0.643 WHIP. Anytime you have two dominant pitchers like this, I believe it brings the best out of both and I expect both to be on top of their game tonight.

Key Trends - UNDER is 13-4-1 in Scherzer's last 18 road starts, 4-1 in his last 5 during game 1 of a series, 4-1 in his last 5 following a loss and 4-1 in his last 5 against the AL West. It's also 8-1-2 in Richard's last 11 starts against an opponent who scored 5+ runs in their last game, 5-1-2 in his last 7 starts at home and 5-1-1 in the Angels' last 7 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150.

System - The UNDER is 33-8 (81%) since 1997 in games where the total is set at 7 runs and you have a road team that is hitting .290 or better over their last 20 games against an opposing starter with a WHIP of 1.00 or less over his last 10 starts. BET THE UNDER 7!

5* MLB Blockbuster Blue Chip Top Play

---San Francisco Giants -140---

Great spot to back the Giants, who have came out of the break strong with a 4-1 mark. San Francisco will be sending out their ace Madison Bumgarner, who is 7-1 with a sensational 1.94 ERA and 1.009 WHIP over 11 road starts in 2014. I'll gladly take my chances with Bumgarner against the struggling Phillies, who have dropped 3 straight and 6 of their last 7. Philadelphia will be starting A.J. Burnett, who was rocked in his last start against the Braves, allowing 6 runs on 10 hits in just 5 innings of work.

Key Trends - San Francisco is a perfect 7-0 in Bumgarner's 7 road starts this season against NL teams averaging 4.3 or less runs per game, Philadelphia is 4-14 in 18 home games this season vs NL team allowing 3.8 or less runs per game, 3-13 in their last 16 with a tired bullpen that has thrown 13+ innings in their last 3 games and 1-11 in their last 12 home games after a contest where the bullpen threw 6+ innings.

System - All teams with a money line of -100 to -150 (SAN FRANCISCO) - poor power team - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game on the season, after scoring 8 runs or more are 232-130 (64%) against the money line over the last 5 seasons. BET THE GIANTS -140!

5* MLB Blue Chip Blockbuster Top Play

---Chicago Cubs -125---

This is a great spot to back the Cubs as they will be extremely motivated to kick off a lengthy 10-game homestand with a win over the lowly Padres. Chicago will be starting Kyle Hendricks, who allowed 4 runs on just 5 hits with 7 strikeouts over 6 innings at Cincinnati in his MLB debut. What killed Hendricks is he allowed 3 runs in the first inning. He was dominant from there on and I look for him to have no problem keeping one of the worst offense in MLB history in check.

On the flip side of this, Chicago's offense should have no problem proving more than enough run support. San Diego will be sending out lefty Eric Stultz, who is 0-7 with a 5.43 ERA and 1.500 WHIP over 10 road starts and is just 1-5 with a 5.16 ERA and 1.528 WHIP over 7 career starts vs the Cubs. Chicago has crushed left-handed starters, they are averaging 4.7 runs and hitting .262 as a team in their 19 games against a left-handed starter (3.9 runs, 2.37 average overall).

Key Trends - Cubs are 12-5 in their last 17 during game 1 of a series and 4-1 in their last 5 following an off day. San Diego is 5-15 in their last 20 games against a bad team WP% between 38% to 46%, 7-20 in their last 27 after winning 2 of their last 3 and a mere 6-22 in their last 28 road after a win by 2 runs or less.

System - Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (CHICAGO CUBS) - after 3 or more consecutive road games, playing on Tuesday are 69-42 (62%) over the last 5 seasons. BET THE CUBS -125!

5* AL Central Game of the Month

---Cleveland Indians -122---

This is a great price to back the red-hot Indians against the slumping Twins. While Cleveland lost yesterday in the series finale at Detroit, they had won 4 straight and are a strong 11-5 over their last 16 overall. Minnesota was just swept at home by the Rays over the weekend and a big reason for that was their offense managed to score just 6 runs in 3 games.

I'll gladly take my chances with Cleveland's T.J. House against the Twins Kris Johnson, House has only allowed more than 3 earned runs twice in 8 starts this season. Johnson on the other hand has really struggled in his 3 career starts. He's given up 10 runs on 19 hits and 8 walks in just 10 1/3 innings of work.

Key Trends - Minnesota is 6-23 this season vs a starting pitcher who walks 1.75 or less hitters per start, 17-37 in their last 54 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150 and 10-26 in their last 36 during game 1 of a series. Cleveland is 39-17 in their last 56 games as a road favorite, 5-0 in their last 5 after a loss and a perfect 4-0 in House's last 4 starts as a favorite.

System - Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (MINNESOTA) - after a loss by 2 runs or less against opponent after scoring 1 run or less are 60-30 (67%) against the money line over the last 5 seasons. BET THE INDIANS -122!

5* MLB Blockbuster Blue Chip Top Play

----Oakland A's -167---

System - Play Against - Road underdogs with a money line of +150 or more (BALTIMORE) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better on the season (AL) against opponent with a starting pitcher whose throws more than 6.5 innings per start are 64-11 (85%) against the money line over the last 5 seasons. BET THE A's -167!

5* NL Blue Chip Over/Under Game of the Year

---Dodgers/Cardinals UNDER 7.5---

Oddsmakers have opened the door by listing the total in this game at 7.5. While I don't think these two teams will come close to scoring 8 runs, having the extra half-run to work with is huge.

The Dodgers will be sending out Zach Greinke, who is 11-3 with a 2.73 ERA overall in 2014. The key here is that Greinke has owned the Cardinals of late, going 5-0 with a 1.74 ERA over his last 6 starts versus St Louis.

On the flip side of things, I look for the Cardinals Joe Kelly to keep the LA's slumping offense in check. The Dodgers are hitting just .198 over their last 7 games and have scored just 15 runs during this stretch.

Key Trends - UNDER is 10-2 in Greinke's last 12 road starts as a favorite of -125 to -175, 17-4 in the Dodgers last 21 games following a loss and 13-1 in LA's last 14 road games after a loss by 2 runs or less!

System - Home teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 (ST LOUIS) - allowing 3.8 or less runs/game on the season (NL), after a one run win are 121-74 (62%) over the last 5 seasons. BET THE UNDER 7.5!

5* MLB Blockbuster Blue Chip Top Play

---San Francisco Giants -122---

The Giants let a 9.5-game lead slip away in the AL West prior to the All-Star break and I expect San Francisco to come out strong in the 2nd half, starting with Friday's opener at Miami. The Giants will send out their ace Madison Bumgarner, who has been lights out on the road this season. Bumgarner is 6-2 with a 1.98 ERA and 1.010 WHIP away from home. I'll gladly take my chances that he will out-duel the Marlins Nathan Eovaldi, who has a 4.04 ERA at home and ugly 12.27 ERA and 2.237 WHIP over 4 career starts vs the Giants.

Key Trends/System - San Francisco is 20-10 in road games this season vs NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game, 4-1 in their last 5 against a team with a losing record and 13-4 in Bumgarner's last 17 road starts when the total is set between 7 and 8.5 runs. Add it up and that's a 37-15 (71%) system telling us to BET THE GIANTS -122!

5* MLB Blockbuster Blue Chip Top Play

---New York Mets +139---

This is a great spot to back to the Mets at home. New York has won 6 of their last 7 and are clearly locked in heading to the All-Star break. Miami on the other hand has dropped 3 starts. On top of that, the Mets have a clear advantage on the mound with Jacob DeGrom going up against the Marlins Brad Hand. DeGrom threw 7 shutout innings in his last start and has a 1.95 ERA at home this season.

System - All favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (NY METS) - a marginal losing team (46% to 49%) playing a losing team, playing on Sunday are 92-34 (73%) against the money line over the last 5 seasons. BET THE METS!

5* MLB Pre All-Star Break Game of the Year

---St Louis Cardinals -131---

This is a great price and perfect spot to back the Cardinals with their ace and Cy Young frontrunner Adam Wainwright on the mound. St Louis rallied from a 6-run deficit to stun the Brewers last night and I look for the Cardinals to carry over that momentum with an easy win this afternoon. Wainwright is 11-4 with a 1.79 ERA and 0.924 WHIP overall and is a dominant 3-1 with a 0.79 ERA over his last six starts. Milwaukee will counter with Jimmy Nelson, who is being recalled up from Triple-A to make just his second start of the season. I look for him to be a bit overwhelmed in this spot and for the Cardinals to provide Wainwright with plenty of run support in what should be an easy win. 

Key Trends/System - Wainwright is 11-1 in his last 12 road starts against teams who strand 6.9 or less base runners/game, St Louis is 6-1 in their last 7 vs the NL Central, 8-2 in their last 10 as a favorite of -110 to -150, 20-8 in Wainwright's last 28 starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150 and 20-6 in his last 26 during game 2 of a series. Add it up and that's a 65-18 (78%) system telling us to BET THE CARDINALS -131!

5* Interleague Game of the Month

---Colorado Rockies -158---

This is a great spot to back the Rockies at home against the Twins. Colorado comes in off consecutive wins for the first time since the middle of June and I look for them to keep that momentum rolling. The Rockies have shown the ability to get hot for extended periods and it's hard to not like their chances given today's pitching matchup. Colorado will send out Jorge De La Rosa, against a 29-year-old Kris Johnson who is making just his 3rd big league start. I'll take my chances on Johnson finding life difficult in the thin air of Colorado.

Key Trends/System - De La Rosa is 12-4 when working on 5-6 days of rest, 21-9 in his last 30 starts on a Friday and 16-2 over his career as a home favorite of -150 to -175. Add it up and that's a 49-15 (77%) system telling us to BET THE ROCKIES -158!

5* MLB Blockbuster Blue Chip Top Play

---New York Mets -109---

This is a great spot to back the Mets at home against division rival Atlanta. New York's Bartolo Colon has struggled in each of his last two starts, but comes in with a dominant 2.72 ERA and 0.967 WHIP at home and is 4-1 with a 1.70 ERA and 1.027 WHIP over 5 career starts vs the Braves. Colon has also been extra sharp against division opponents, posting a 2.79 ERA and 1.119 WHIP against the NL East this season. Not to mention the Mets come in red-hot having won 4 straight and 5 of 6 overall.

Key Trends/System - Atlanta is 8-23 in their last 31 road games against a team with a strong bullpen (ERA of 3.33 or better), 1-6 in their last 7 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less last game and 1-4 after losing the first three games of a series. New York is 5-1 in their last 6 home games against a right-handed starter, 4-1 in Colon's last 5 home starts and 6-2 in their last 8 during game 4 of a series. Add it up and that's a 48-14 (77%) system telling us to BET THE METS -109!

5* MLB Blockbuster Blue Chip Top Play

---St. Louis Cardinals -132---

This is a great price to back the Cardinals at home, as they look to open up their 4-game set against Pittsburgh with 3 straight wins. Hard to not like their chances given the pitching matchups. St Louis' Lance Lynn is 5-2 with a 2.84 ERA at home (6-3 team record), while the Pirates' Brandon Cumpton has an ugly 6.04 ERA and 1.432 WHIP over 4 road starts.

Key Trends - Pittsburgh is 22-41 in their last 73 after losing the first 2 games of a series and 134-278 in their last 412 road games against a team with a winning home record. St Louis is 66-27 in their last 93 home games against a right-handed starter and 12-4 in Lynn's last 16 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150.

System - All favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (ST LOUIS) - poor hitting team (AVG <=.250) against an average starting pitcher (ERA=4.20 to 5.20) -NL, with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 15 games are 100-42 (70%) against the money line over the last 5 seasons. BET THE CARDINALS -132!

5* MLB Blockbuster Blue Chip Top Play

---Kansas City Royals -105---

This is a great spot to fade the Rays. Tampa Bay was shutout last night by Kansas City's James Shields, snapping their 3-game winning streak. There's a good chance the Rays will come up short again, as they send out Jeremy Hellickson to make his season debut. I look for Hellickson to struggle in his first start, especially when you factor in that he had a 6.23 ERA over 6 rehab starts. The Royals will send out Jason Vargas, who allowed just 4 hits over 7 shutout innings in his last start and is a perfect 4-0 with a 1.52 ERA and 1.088 WHIP on the road this season.

Key Trends - Vargas is an impressive 31-19 (team record) in his last 50 starts during night games, while the Royals are 28-11 in their last 39 games as a road favorite and 12-4 in their last 16 road games overall. Tampa Bay is just 5-15 in their last 20 home games against a team with a winning record and 1-6 in their last 7 games as a home underdog.

System - All teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (TAMPA BAY) - with a team batting average of .265 or worse on the season (AL), after a loss by 6 runs or more are 131-199 (40%) against the money line over the last 5 seasons. BET THE ROYALS -105!

5* MLB Blockbuster Blue Chip Top Play

---Miami Marlins -106---

This is a great spot to back the Marlins at basically a pick'em at Arizona. Miami comes in off back-to-back wins over the Cardinals for their second straight series win. The Diamondbacks on the other hand have lost 5 of their last 7. Huge edge on the mound for Miami in this one. The Marlins' Tom Koehler comes in with a 1.89 ERA and 0.947 WHIP over his last 3 starts. Arizona's Chase Anderson has a 5.52 ERA and 1.772 WHIP over his last 3 starts.

Key Trends - Diamondbacks are 15-28 in their last 43 home games after scoring 4 runs or less in 3 straight games, 1-8 in their last 9 home games off a win by 2 runs or less and 13-29 in their last 42 during game 1 of a series. Miami is 5-2 in their last 7 against a starting pitcher with a WHIP worse than 1.30 and 6-2 in Koehler's last 8 starts against the NL West.

System - Home teams with a money line of -100 to -150 (ARIZONA) - after 10 straight games where they failed to hit more than one HR, playing on Monday are 38-64 (37%) against the money line since 1997 (Perfect 2-0 this season). BET THE MARLINS -106!

5* MLB Blockbuster Blue Chip Top Play

---Atlanta Braves -154---

I'm all over the Braves this afternoon. Atlanta is on fire right now, having won 9-straight and I don't see the streak coming to an end at home. The Braves will be starting Alex Wood, who has looked sharp in his two starts since returning from the DL and I'll gladly take my chances with him over the Diamondbacks Wade Miley, who is 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA 1.438 WHIP over 3 career starts against the Braves. 

System - All favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (ATLANTA) - below average hitting team (AVG <=.255) against an average starting pitcher (ERA=4.20 to 5.20) -NL, starting a pitcher who walked <=1 hitters each of his last 2 outings are 43-9 (83%) against the money line over the last 5 seasons. BET THE BRAVES -154!

5* MLB Blockbuster Blue Chip Top Play

---Cincinnati Reds -125---

System - Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (MILWAUKEE) - after 5 straight games where they stranded 7 or less runners on base, in July games are just 13-33 over the last 3 seasons. That's a 78% system telling us to BET THE REDS -125!

5* MLB Blue Chip Blockbuster Top Play

----Cincinnati Reds -113---

Key System - Home teams with a money line of -100 to -150 (CINCINNATI) - after 2 or more consecutive losses, a marginal winning team (51% to 54%) playing a winning team are 225-122 (65%) since 1997. BET THE REDS -113!

5* NL Blockbuster Blue Chip Game of the Week

---Pittsburgh Pirates -139---

This is a great price to back the red-hot Pirates against the struggling Diamondbacks. Pittsburgh's won 3-straight and are 9-2 in their last 11 overall. Arizona has not played well all season and enter off a 3-game losing streak. The key here is that I think Arizona's Brandon McCarthy is getting a little too much respect from his last performance. McCarthy allowed just 1 run on 6 hits over 7 strong innings against the Padres. Arizona is 0-14 in McCarthy's 14 starts this season against every other team but San Diego (3-20 since beginning of last year). In his two previous starts following an outing against the Padres this year, McCarthy has allowed at least 5 earned runs and failed to make it out of the 5th inning. On top of all this, Pittsburgh will be starting a red-hot Vance Worley, who has a 1.74 ERA and 0.968 WHIP over his first 3 starts of 2014.

Key Trends/System - Arizona is 8-20 in against the money line vs NL teams allowing 4.3 or less runs/game in the second half of the last two seasons, 0-14 in McCarthy's last 14 starts against any other team besides San Diego, 5-22 in their last 27 road games against a starter with a WHIP better than 1.15 and 1-8 in their last 9 against the NL Central. Pittsburgh is 23-9 in their last 32 games against a right-handed starter, 7-1 in their last 8 after allowing 2 runs or less and Worley is 18-3 in his last 21 starts vs NL teams with an OBP of .315 or worse. Add it up and that's a 112-27 (81%) system telling us to BET THE PIRATES -139!

5* MLB Blockbuster Blue Chip Top Play

---New York Yankees +107---

This is a great price to back the Yankees at home. New York will be starting Vidal Nuno, who despite his awful numbers, comes in with some confidence after allowing just 2 hits over 5 and 2/3 shutout innings against the Red Sox at home in his last start. The Rays will counter with Jake Odorizzi, who has a 6.34 ERA and 1.715 WHIP over 7 road starts (1-6 team record). Odorizzi made his first career start against the Yankees earlier this season in New York and lasted just 4 innings after giving up 3 runs on 5 hits and 2 walks.

Key Trends - Tampa Bay is 1-8 in their last 9 after 6 consecutive games against a division rival, 2-9 in their last 11 after winning at least 4 of their last 6 and 2-10 in their last 12 after 6+ road games. The Rays are also 0-8 in Odorizzi's last 8 road starts with a total set between 8.5 to 10 runs. New York is 47-19 in their last 66 after losing the first 2 games of a series.

System - Home teams (NY YANKEES) - off 4 straight losses vs. division rivals against opponent off a one run win over a division rival are 72-38 (66%) against the money line since 1997. BET THE YANKEES +107!

5* MLB Blue Chip Blockbuster Top Play

---Seattle Mariners -116---

This a great price to back the red-hot Mariners against the Astros. Seattle comes in off a 10-4 victory in the series opener versus Houston last night and are now 8-2 in their last 10 overall. I'll take my chances on Mariners starter Hisashi Iwakuma, who is 3-0 with a 3.71 ERA and 1.125 WHIP over 4 road starts (4-0 team record). Iwakuma also has a dominant 2.72 ERA and 1.160 WHIP over 6 career starts against the Astros.

Key Trends - Seattle is 6-1 in their last 7 games vs a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30, 10-2 in their last 12 road games with a total set between 7 and 8.5, 8-2 in their last 10 after scoring 5+ runs last time out and 5-1 in Iwakuma's last 6 road starts vs a team with a losing record.

System - All teams with a money line of -100 to -150 (SEATTLE) - poor power team - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game on the season, after scoring 8 runs or more are 227-125 (65%) over the last 5 seasons. BET THE MARINERS -116!

5* A's/Tigers MLB Blue Chip Blockbuster Top Play

This is a perfect price to back to the Tigers at home. Detroit will clearly be motivated going up against the AL- leading A's, who own baseballs best record at 51-30. Oakland's Scott Kazmir is an impressive 9-3 with a 1.010 WHIP over 16 starts, but he comes in off an ugly performance at New York, where he allowed the Mets to score 7 runs on 8 hits in just 3 innings of work. I'll take my chances on the Tigers with Anibal Sanchez on the mound. Sanchez has a sizzling 2.77 ERA and 0.904 WHIP over 8 home starts

Key Trends - Oakland is 2-8 in their last 10 games as an underdog of +110 to +150, while Detroit is 13-3 in their last 16 games against a starter with a WHIP of 1.15 or better, 20-8 in their last 28 home games against a left-handed starter and 10-4 in their last 14 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.

System - All underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (OAKLAND) - with a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is better than 70% against opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better on the season-AL are just 10-51 (16%) against the money over the last 5 seasons. That's a 84% system telling us to BET THE TIGERS -119!

5* MLB Blue Chip Blockbuster Top Play

---Pittsburgh Pirates -124---

Pittsburgh hasn't lost consecutive games in over a week and I look for them to bounce back with an easy win on Sunday in the series finale against the Mets. New York will be starting Bartolo Colon, who has pitched great of late, but is just 4-3 with a 4.81 ERA and 1.345 WHIP on the road this season.

Key Trends - New York is just 5-11 in their last 16 as a road underdog and 3-9 in their last 12 vs the NL Central. Pittsburgh is 5-0 in their last 5 against a right-handed starter, 4-1 in their last 5 as a home favorite of -110 to -150 and 11-5 in their last 16 against the NL East.

System - All teams with a money line of -100 to -150 (PITTSBURGH) - poor NL offensive team (<=4.1 runs/game) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA<=3.33), after 3 straight games where they committed no errors are 61-29 (68%) against the money line over the last 5 seasons. BET THE PIRATES -124!

5* NL East Blue Chip Game of the Month

---Atlanta Braves -120 (Game 2)---

This is a great price to back the Braves in the second game of today's double-header. Atlanta has a clear edge on the mound with David Hale going up against Sean O'Sullivan. While Hale hasn't started for Atlanta since April, he was impressive in his short stint with the team, posting a 2.31 ERA over 4 starts. Hale faced off against the Phillies last year and allowed just 1 runs over 7 innings of a 7-1 Braves' victory. O'Sullivan hasn't started a single game for Philadelphia this season and has not been impressive in his previous runs at the big league level. I look for Atlanta's bats to provide more than enough run-support to secure a victory.

Key Trend/System - Philadelphia is 2-9 in their last 11 home games against an NL starting pitcher with an ERA of 3.00 or better. That's a 81% system telling us to BET THE BRAVES -120!

5* MLB Run Line Game of the Month

---Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (+109)---

Today's pitching matchup is a rematch of Sunday's game at Colorado, where Kyle Lohse faced off against Tyler Matzek. Lohse held the Rockies to just 3 runs on 7 hits, which is pretty impressive given how well Colorado has been hitting at home. Matzek on the other hand, gave up 5 runs on 7 hits and 4 walks in just 5 1/3 innings of work. Matzek has now allowed 8 runs on 17 hits and 6 walks over his last two starts (only 10 1/3 innings). I look for the Brewers offense to have no problem putting up 5+ runs and that should be more than enough for Milwaukee to win here by 2+ runs. Lohse is 3-1 with a 2.23 ERA and 0.812 WHIP at home.

System - Home favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 (MILWAUKEE) - with a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) against opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.70 to 5.20 on the season (NL) are 39-4 against the money line over the last 5 seasons and have won these contests by an average score of 5.2 to 2.3! BET THE BREWERS -1.5!

5* MLB Blockbuster Blue Chip Top Play

---St Louis Cardinals -119---

Anytime the Cardinals have Adam Wainwright on the mound and are listed at less than a -120 favorite, you have to take notice. There's less than a handful of starters that I would take over him and the Dodgers Josh Beckett is not one of them. Pitching on the road has been no problem for Wainwright, as he's 6-2 with a 1.50 ERA and 0.955 WHIP. The Dodgers are just 2-6 in Beckett's 8 home starts and last time he took the mound at home he allowed 4 runs in a 3-6 loss to the Diamondbacks.

Key Trends/System - St Louis is 39-18 this season against a starter with an ERA of 3.00 or better, 15-3 in Wainwright's last 18 road starts during the 1st half of the season and 40-15 in his last 55 starts as a favorite. LA is just 2-9 in their last 11 games as an underdog of +110 to +150, 5-12 in Beckett's last 17 starts at night and 1-6 in his last 7 home games against a team with a winning record. Add it up and that's a 121-44 (73%) system telling us to BET THE CARDINALS -119!

5* MLB Blue Chip Blockbuster Top Play

---Seattle Mariners -139---

This is a great price to back Seattle at home. Boston will be starting Clay Bucholz, who is returning from the DL. Bucholz was absolutely awful prior to leaving the rotation, posting a 7.02 ERA and 1.980 WHIP over his first 10 starts. I just don't see him being able to match the Mariner's Hisashi Iwakuma, who has a dominant 2.64 ERA and 0.947 WHIP at home. Not to mention Seattle is playing with a ton of momentum, as they come in on a 5-game winning streak. Boston on the other hand is just 1-5 in their last 6 games.

Key Trends - Boston is 0-9 against the money line as a road underdog of +125 to +175 this season and just 9-22 in their 31 road games in 2014 with a total set between 7 and 8.5 runs. Seattle is 8-1 in their last 9 after scoring 5+ runs, 4-0 in their last 4 home games against a team with a losing record and 15-7 in Iwakuma's last 22 starts versus a team with a losing record.

System - All teams with a money line of -100 to -150 (SEATTLE) - poor power team - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game on the season, after scoring 8 runs or more are 227-122 (65%) over the last 5 seasons. BET THE MARINERS -139!

5* AL East Game of the Month

---Toronto Blue Jays -131---

This is an excellent price to back the Blue Jays at home against the Yankees. Toronto will be starting veteran Mark Buehrle, who is 10-4 with a 2.32 ERA and 1.232 WHIP overall in 2014. Buehrle suffered a loss at New York in his last start, but pitched well enough to win. He allowed just 2 earned runs on 6 hits. This time around I look for the Blue Jays offense to provide more than enough run-support. The Yankees are 1-5 in Phelps 6 road starts this season, where he's posted a 4.29 ERA and 1.374 WHIP.

Key Trends - Yankees are a mere 11-24 in their last 35 games after giving 8+ last time out and 6-20 in their last 26 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. Toronto is 6-1 in their last 7 home games against a team with a winning record, 14-5 in their last 19 when their opponent allows 5+ last time out and 15-6 in their last 21 after scoring 5+ runs in their last game.

System - Road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (NY YANKEES) - below average hitting team (AVG <=.265) against an excellent starting pitcher (ERA <=3.20) -AL, with an average bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 to 4.50 on the season are just 48-143 (25%) against the money line over the last 5 seasons! BET THE BLUE JAYS -131!

5* White Sox/Orioles MLB Blue Chip Top Play

---Baltimore Orioles +102---

The Orioles should not be a home dog against the White Sox on Monday. Chicago has lost 4 straight and 8 of 10 overall, while Baltimore has won back-to-back games and 4 of 5 overall. The reason the White Sox are getting so much respect is because they will be starting their ace Chris Sale. However, the Orioles Wei-Yin Chen has been just as good. Chen is 3-1 with a 3.13 ERA and 1.152 WHIP at home and comes in with a 2.25 ERA and 0.800 WHIP over his last 3 starts.

Sale has made one previous start against the Orioles in Baltimore and was rocked for 4 runs on 6 hits and 3 walks over just 4 innings of work. Chen on the other hand has a 2.60 ERA and 1.096 WHIP over 3 career starts against the White Sox (3-0 team record).

System - Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (BALTIMORE) - bad offensive team (<=4.5 runs/game) against a good starting pitcher (ERA<=4.20) (AL), after allowing 1 run or less are 68-37 (65%) against the money line over the last 5 seasons. BET THE ORIOLES +102!

5* MLB Underdog Game of the Month

---Chicago White Sox +139---

The White Sox are showing exceptional value as a huge dog on Sunday. Chicago will be extremely motivated to avoid getting swept by a division rival and they have just the starter to do that. John Danks has been lights out of late, posting a 1.74 ERA and 1.016 WHIP over his last 3 starts and hasn't allowed more than 2 earned runs in each of his last 5 starts. His poor overall numbers are simply a result of 2 bad starts out of 14.

Key Trends/System - Twins are 2-12 in their last 14 home games after 2 or more consecutive wins against a division rival. That's a 86% system telling us to BET THE WHITE SOX +139

5* MLB Blockbuster Blue Chip Top Play

---Milwaukee Brewers -130---

These two teams are headed in opposite directions. Milwaukee is 9-4 over their last 13, while the Rockies have dropped 4 in a row. The Brewers have a clear edge on the mound with Wily Peralta going up against Christian Friedrich. This will be Friedrich's first start of 2014 and first since 2012. I just don't see this being a good spot for him, as the Brewers are swinging a red-hot bat and have absolutely crushed left-handed pitching this season.

Key Trends - Brewers are 6-1 in their last 7 as a road favorite of -110 to -150, 11-5 in their last 16 against a left-handed starter and 4-0 in Peralta's last 4 road starts vs a team with a losing record.

System - Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (COLORADO) - good offensive team - scoring >=4.8 runs/game on the season (NL), after scoring 8 runs or more are just 19-40 (32%) against the money line over the last 5 seasons. BET THE BREWERS -130!

5* MLB Blue Chip Blockbuster Top Play

---Kansas City Royals -128---

The Royals had their 10-game winning streak snapped yesterday by the Tigers, but I don't see that one loss ruining their momentum. I look for Kansas City to bounce back right back with a win, as they send out their ace James Shields. The Royals are a dominant 11-4 in Shields 15 starts this season and he's got a solid 3.24 ERA and 1.230 WHIP at home.

Key Trends/System - Kansas City is 16-5 in their last 21 home games when listed as a favorite to -100 to -150, 21-7 in Shields last 28 starts when listed as a favorite of -100 to -150 and a perfect 9-0 in his last 9 starts during the month of June. Add it up and that's a 49-12 (79%) system telling us to BET ON THE ROYALS -128!

5* MLB Blue Chip Blockbuster Top Play

---Oakland A's -157---

The A's are a big favorite at home for good reason, as they are the better team and have a clear advantage on the mound. Oakland will be sending out Scott Kazmir, who is 8-2 with a 2.05 ERA and 0.977 WHIP over 14 starts. What's amazing is Kazmir has been even stronger at home, where he's 4-1 with a 1.45 ERA and 0.808 WHIP over 6 starts.

Boston will counter with Jake Peavy, who is 1-4 with a 4.53 ERA and 1.443 WHIP overall and just 1-2 with an ugly 5.40 ERA and 1.418 WHIP on the road.

Key Trends - Boston is 1-6 in Peavy's last 7 starts as a road underdog, 0-8 in his last 8 starts after scoring 2 runs or less and 1-5 in his last 6 against a team with a winning record. Oakland is 50-20 in their last 70 home games against a team with a losing road record, 38-17 in their last 55 games as a favorite of -151 to -200 and 10-0 in Kazmir's last 10 starts following a quality start last time out.

System - All favorites with a money line of -150 or more (OAKLAND) - with a team batting average of .265 or worse on the season (AL) against opponent starting a pitcher who gave up 1 or less earned runs last outing are 361-146 (71%) against the money line since 1997! BET THE A'S!

5* Blue Chip MLB Over/Under AL Total of the Month

---Blue Jays/Yankees UNDER 9---

I'm expecting a pitcher's duel with Toronto's Mark Buehrle going up against the Yankees' CHase Whitley. Buehrle is 10-3 with a 2.28 ERA and 1.225 WHIP over 14 starts in 2014 and has been just as strong on the road with a 2.01 ERA and 1.013 WHIP over 7 starts. Whitley has a 2.41 ERA and 1.010 WHIP over his first 6 starts and was dominant in his lone start at Yankee Stadium, allowing just 1 run on 5 hits over 5 innings of work. What's impressive is the fact that Whitley has just 3 walks over 33 2/3 innings.

Key Trends - UNDER is 39-14-1 in Toronto's last 54 games against a team with a winning record, 13-3 in Buehrle's last 16 starts as a road underdog, 6-1 in the Yankees last 7 as a home favorite and 20-7-3 in New York's last 30 games with a total set at 9 to 10.5.

System - UNDER is 41-13 (76%) in games with a total of 9 to 9.5 where the home team has a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.100 or better on the season-AL, averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game on the season. BET THE UNDER 9!

5* MLB Over/Under Blue Chip Top Play

---Mets/Cardinals UNDER 7.5---

I'm expecting a very low-scoring affair tonight, as the Cardinals' Michael Wacha will be going up against the Mets' Jon Neise. Wacha is 4-0 with a 2.42 ERA and 1.008 WHIP at home, while Niese has a 2.45 ERA and 1.066 WHIP over 6 road starts. Niese is also 4-1 with a 1.87 ERA over 6 career starts against the Cardinals and the UNDER is 4-0-1 in those 6 meetings.

Key Trends/System - The UNDER is 4-0-1 in the Mets last 5 games with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs, 5-0-1 in Neise's last 6 starts after scoring 2 runs or less and 10-1-3 in Neise's last 14 starts on 4 days of rest. It's also 16-5 in the Cardinals last 22 home games against a left-handed starter, 8-1 in Wacha's last 9 starts during game 2 of a series and 8-1-2 in their last 11 games overall. Add it up and that's a 51-8 (86%) system telling us to BET THE UNDER 7.5!

5* AL Central Game of the Month

---Boston Red Sox -135---

I'm jumping all over the Red Sox at home on Saturday against the Indians. Cleveland has been awful on the road this season and I don't see them being able to keep it close with youngster T.J. House on the mound. House will be making his 5th start of the season and needless to say he's struggled. He comes in with a 5.49 ERA and 1.641 WHIP and an even worse 6.32 ERA and 1.724 WHIP on the road. 

House was able to limit Boston to just 2 runs on 6 hits over 5 2/3 innings at home on 6/3. Some might consider that a positive going into this matchup, but I believe it will work against him. The Red Sox will have a much better idea of what to expect the second time around and I look for them to put up a big number offensively. Boston's Jake Peavy hasn't been great in 2014, but he's shown some signs here of late and should have more than enough run-support to secure an easy win. 

Key Trends/System - Cleveland is 7-19 in their last 26 games as a road underdog, 1-6 in their last 7 road games against a team with a losing record and 0-4 in their last 4 during game 2 of a series. Boston is 19-7 in their last 26 home games against a team with a losing record and 6-2 in Peavy's last 8 starts when working on exactly 4 days of rest. Add it up and that's a 50-17 (75%) system telling us to BET THE RED SOX -135!

5* Blue Chip NL Game of the Month

---Milwaukee Brewers -125---

This is a great price to catch the Brewers at home against the Reds. I believe Milwaukee has a clear edge on the mound in this one, as they send out a red-hot Matt Garza against Homer Bailey and his road woes. The Brewers have won each of Garza's last 3 starts, in which he's posted an impressive 2.84 ERA with 18 strikeouts over 19 innings. Bailey has pitched well of late, but most of his success has come at home. The Reds are just 2-4 in his 6 road starts and he's got an ugly 5.35 ERA and 1.604 WHIP in those 6 outings.

Key Trends/System - Milwaukee is 6-1 in Garza's last 7 starts against a team with a losing record, 5-0 in his last 5 starts as a home favorite and 9-2 in their last 11 games played on a Friday. Cincinnati is just 2-9 in Bailey's last 11 road starts against a team with a winning record, 1-4 in their last 5 during game 1 of a series and 0-4 in his last 4 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. Add it up and that's a 37-6 (80%) system telling us to BET THE BREWERS -125!

5* NL Blue Chip Over/Under Total of the Year

---Dodgers/Reds UNDER 7---

All signs point to a pitchers duel tonight in Cincinnati, as the Dodgers will send out Hyun-Jin Ryu against the Reds Johnny Cueto. Ryu is 5-0 with a 0.95 ERA and 0.974 WHIP over 6 road starts in 2014, while Cueto comes in with a 1.87 ERA and 0.717 WHIP over 7 home starts. In Ryu's lone start against Cincinnati this season at home, he allowed just 3 runs on 3 hits over 7 1/3. In Cueto's only start at LA, he held the Dodgers to just 1 earned run on 4 hits over 6 1/3.

Key Trends/System - UNDER is 9-2 in the Dodgers last 11 road games when listed as an underdog, 7-1 in their last 8 road games against a team with a losing record and 5-0 in Ryu's last 5 starts as an underdog. The UNDER is also 10-2 in Cueto's last 12 starts against an opponent who scored 5+ runs in their last contest, 6-1-1 in the Reds last 8 games after scoring 2 runs or less and 12-4-1 in Cueto's last 17 home starts against a team with a winning record. Add it up and that's a 49-8 (86%) system telling us to BET THE UNDER 7!

5* Tigers/Red Sox MLB Game of the Month

---Detroit Tigers -129---

The Red Sox are back to their losing ways, having dropped 5 straight and I look for them to add another loss to their resume tonight against the Tigers. Detroit will be sending out Anibal Sanchez, who has been brilliant despite a mere 2-2 record. Sanchez has a 2.15 ERA and an impressive 0.894 WHIP on the season and comes in with a sensational 1.21 ERA and 0.493 WHIP over his last 3 starts.

System - Home teams (DETROIT) - with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.100 or better on the season-AL against opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better on the season-AL are 159-85 (65%) over the last 5 seasons. BET THE TIGERS -129!

5* MLB Blue Chip Blockbuster Top Play

---San Diego Padres -135---

This is a great price to back the Padres at home with their ace Andrew Cashner on the mound. Cashner comes in with a dominant 1.67 ERA and 1.083 WHIP over 5 home starts and has not allowed more than 2 earned runs in each of his last 4 starts.

Washington counters with the inexperienced Blake Treinen, who will be making just the third start of his career at the big league level. Each of his first two starts have ended in losses for the Nationals and he really struggled with his command last time out, walking 5 in just 5 2/3 innings of work. I look for the Padres to provide Cashner with more than enough run-support to secure the win.

System - Home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (SAN DIEGO) - ice cold hitting team - batting .175 or worse over their last 3 games, in the first half of the season are 76-37 against the money line over the last 5 seasons. That's a 67% system telling us to BET THE PADRES -135!

5* MLB Blue Chip Run Line Game of the Month

---Texas Rangers -1.5 (+125)---

Great spot to play the run line on Texas, as they should have no problem winning at home with their ace Yu Darvish on the mound. Cleveland has been absolutely awful on the road, as they are just 9-19 in their last 28 games away from home. Indian's starter Trevor Bauer has pitched well since being added to the rotation, but was not sharp in his last road start. Bauer allowed 4 runs on 6 hits and 3 walks in just 4 1/3 innings of work.

System - Cleveland is 17-45 in their last 62 road games against an AL starter with a WHIP of 1.300 or better and have lost these contest on average by 1.6 runs/game. That's a 73% system telling us to BET THE RANGERS -1.5 (+125)

5* MLB Blockbuster Blue Chip Top Play

---St Louis Cardinals -112---

The Cardinals are coming off a big win yesterday, as they defeated the Royals 5-2 in 11 innings to snap a 3-game losing streak. I look for St Louis to carry over that momentum with another win on Thursday. The Cardinals have a clear edge on the mound with Michael Wacha going up against the struggling Yordano Ventura. Wacha comes in with a 2.45 ERA and 1.064 WHIP on the season (12 starts) and a dazzling 1.42 ERA and 0.737 WHIP over his last 3 starts. Ventura on the other hand is 0-4 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.367 WHIP over 6 home starts (1-5 team record) and has an awful 6.60 ERA and 1.667 WHIP over his last 3 starts.

Key Trends - St Louis is a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150, 7-2 in their last 9 after scoring 5+ runs in their last game, 8-3 in their last 11 against a team with a losing record. Kansas City is just 3-9 in their last 12 games against a starter with a WHIP of 1.15 or better, 3-9 in their last 12 home games against a right-handed starter and 5-11 in their last 16 interleague home games.

System - Road teams (ST LOUIS) - after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games, a marginal winning team (51% to 54%) playing a losing team are 49-23 (68%) over the last 5 seasons. BET THE CARDINALS -112!

5* Interleague Game of the Month

---St Louis Cardinals -117---

No way am I passing up on the Cardinals at this price with ace Adam Wainwright on the mound. Wainwright is tied for the NL lead with 8 wins and and ranks 4th in both ERA (2.32) and WHIP (0.91). He's already tossed 2 complete game shutouts and is 4-1 with a solid 3.14 ERA over his last 6 starts against the Royals. Kansas City will counter with Jason Vargas, who comes in with a 4.76 ERA and 1.647 WHIP over his last 3 starts and an ugly 5.26 ERA and 1.380 WHIP over 6 home starts in 2014.

Key Trends - Wainwright is 13-3 in his last 16 road starts during the 1st half of the season and 9-2 in his last 11 road starts against a team with a losing record. St Louis is 36-16 in their last 52 games following a loss and a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 games after losing the first 2 games of a series

System - Road teams (ST LOUIS) - after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games, a marginal winning team (51% to 54%) playing a losing team are 47-23 (67%) over the last 5 seasons. 

5* Red Sox/Indians MLB Blue Chip Top Play

---Boston Red Sox -104---

The Red Sox had their 7-game winning streak snapped in a 2-3 loss in their series opener at Cleveland on Monday. I look for Boston to bounce back an even things up with a relatively easy win on Tuesday.

Cleveland's 24-year-old lefty T.J. House will be making just his 3 start of the season. House has had mixed results in his first two starts. He allowed 5 runs on 11 hits over 6 innings at Baltimore and then came back and allowed just 1 run on 5 hits over 6 1/3 innings at Chicago (White Sox).

The Red Sox will counter with Jake Peavy, who is coming off his best start since he put together a strong 3-game stretch from late April to early May. Peavy held the Braves to just 3 runs on 8 hits over a season-best 8 innings in his last outing. In his last two starts against Cleveland, Peavy has allowed just 4 runs on 8 hits with 19 strikeouts over 15 innings of work.

Key Trends/System - Boston is 13-3 in their last 16 road games against a left-handed starter, 11-4 in their last 15 during game 2 of a series and 6-1 in Peavy's last 7 starts on 4 days of rest. Add it up and that's a 30-8 (79%) system telling us to BET THE RED SOX -104!

5* MLB Blockbuster Blue Chip Top Play

---Tampa Bay Rays -137---

This is a solid price to back the Rays on the road against the Marlins. Tampa Bay is desperate for a win after getting swept in back-to-back series at Toronto and Boston. The good news for the Rays is that the Marlins are also in a funk. Miami just got swept at home by the Braves over the weekend and have now dropped 5 of 6 at home.

Tampa Bay has a big advantage on the mound with Alex Cobb going up against Randy Wolf. Cobb has a 2.93 ERA and 1.043 WHIP over 5 starts and is a perfect 2-0 with a 1.35 ERA and 0.600 WHIP over two career starts against the Marlins. Wolf was just recently inserted into the starting rotation last week and in his season debut he was hit hard, giving up 6 runs on 9 hits in just 5 innings of a 1-7 loss to the Brewers. Wolf is 0-2 with a 6.58 ERA and 1.756 WHIP over 2 career starts against the Rays.

System - Favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (TAMPA BAY) - ice cold hitting team - batting .175 or worse over their last 3 games, in the first half of the season are 110-55 (67%) over the last 5 seasons. BET THE RAYS -137!

5* Interleague Game of the Month

---Cleveland Indians -128---

I'm backing the Indians at home in this one. Cleveland has a huge edge on the mound with Trevor Bauer going up against Colorado's Franklin Morales. Bauer has a 2.25 ERA at home, while Morales comes in with an ugly 5.91 ERA and 1.656 WHIP over 6 road starts. Colorado is not the same team on the road as they are at home. The Rockies are just 12-19 on the road and are only averaging 3.6 runs and hitting .240 as a team away from home.

Key Trends/System - Colorado is 5-22 in their last 27 interleague games against a team with a losing record and 7-23 in their last 30 interleague games against a right-handed starter. Cleveland is 6-1 in their last 7 interleague home games against a left-handed starter and 16-5 in their last 21 interleague home games against a team with a winning record. Add it up and that's a 67-18 (79%) system telling us to BET THE INDIANS!

5* Rockies/Phillies NL Game of the Month

---Philadelphia Phillies -116---

The Rockies (27-24) may have a better overall record than the Phillies (22-26), but Colorado has not played like a contender on the road. The Rockies are just 11-17 away from home this season and this is a great spot to fade Colorado, who has failed to score a single run in each of their last two games and are averaging just 2.7 runs over their last 7 contests.

I'm confident Philadelphia starter Cole Hamels will keep the Rockies offense from getting back on track. Hamels got off to a bit of a rough start to 2014 after opening the season on the DL, but has since looked like the ace the Phillies envisioned. Hamels has a 2.14 ERA and 1.048 WHIP with 26 strikeouts in 21 innings over his last 3 starts. He's also owned the Rockies of late, allowing just 11 earned runs on 34 hits over his last 6 starts (44 innings) vs Colorado.

Key Trends/System - Philadelphia is 5-1 in Hamels' last 6 home starts vs a team with a winning record and 7-2 in their last 9 home games against a team that's won less than 40% of their road games, while Colorado is 1-5 in their last 6 road games against a team with a losing record. Add it up and that's a 17-4 (81%) system telling us to BET THE PHILLIES -116!

5* MLB Over/Under Blue Chip Total of the Month

---Marlins/Phillies UNDER 7.5---

There have been 30 runs scored combined in the first two games of this series, which has created some great value on the UNDER with today's total of 7.5. Philadelphia will be sending out Cole Hamels, who has a 1.29 ERA over his last two starts. The Marlins counter with Henderson Alvarez, who is 2-1 with a 2.31 ERA at home. Hamels has a 1.59 ERA in his last 5 starts in Miami and both of Alvarez's two complete game shutouts have come at Marlins Park.

Key Trends/System - UNDER is 4-1 in Hamel's last 5 starts when their opponent allows 5 or more runs and 6-2 in hi last 8 starts when the Phillies give up 5+ the game before. It's also 12-5 in Hamel's last 17 starts as a road favorite, 6-1-3 in Alvarez's last 10 starts against division opponents and 7-3-1 in Alvarez's last 11 home starts with a total set at 7-8.5 runs. Add it up and that's a 35-11 (76%) system telling us to BET THE UNDER 7.5!

5* NL West Game of the Month

---Colorado Rockies -120---

The Rockies have one of the best home records in 2014 at 14-5, while the Padres are a mere 8-12 on the road. I'll gladly back Colorado at home at this price with Jordan Lyles on the mound. Lyles has been one of the big surprises so far this season, as he comes in 5-0 with a 2.66 ERA and 1.085 WHIP over his first 8 starts. The Rockies are a perfect 3-0 in his 3 home starts, where Lyles has a dominant 1.25 ERA and 0.969 WHIP.

Adding to the value here is that the Padres will be sending out youngster Robbie Erlin, who will be making his first career start at Coors Field. Erlin has a 6.00 ERA and 1.556 WHIP over his 3 road starts and more times than not young pitchers like Erlin get rocked in their first start at Coors and I expect tonight to be no different. The real key here is that the Padres are so bad offensively that I don't think the thin air of Colorado can help them put up enough runs to win this game.

Triple-System - Colorado is 8-1 in their last 9 games as a favorite of -110 to -150, 16-4 in their last 20 home games when they come in having lost 3 of 4 and 12-4 in their last 16 games against a NL starting pitcher with an ERA of 4.00 to 4.70. That's a 80% triple-system in telling us to BET THE ROCKIES -120!

5* MLB Over/Under Total of the Month

I believe there's a ton of value here with the over. San Francisco is hitting .294 over their last 6 home games and will be facing Miami's Henderson Alvarez, who has been awful away from home. Alvarez has a 3.33 ERA overall, but is 0-2 with a 4.57 ERA and 1.892 WHIP over four road starts. The key here is that the Marlins should be able to manage at least 3-4 runs against Yusmeiro Petit, who is filling in for Tim Hudson. Petit looked good in his first start against the light-hitting Padres, but allowed 8 runs on 9 hits and 3 walks in his most recent start at Pittsburgh.

System - The OVER is 15-4 in Miami's last 19 games after two straight overs, 12-3 in their last 15 after playing 2 or more consecutive games on the road and 11-1 in Petit's last 12 home starts after a team win. Add it up and that's a 83% Triple-System telling us to BET THE OVER 7.5!

5* MLB Blockbuster Blue Chip Top Play

---Milwaukee Brewers -143---

I have no problem laying big juice on the Brewers at home with Yovani Gallardo on the mound. Gallardo comes into this game with a 2.92 ERA and 1.216 WHIP on the season and has owned the Pirates over his career. Gallardo is 11-3 with a 2.47 ERA and 1.170 WHIP over 21 career starts against Pittsburgh. The Pirates will counter with Wandy Rodriguez, who has been awful so far in 2014. Rodriguez is 0-2 with a 7.65 ERA and 1.600 WHIP over his first four starts and has an even worse 9.00 ERA and 1.900 WHIP on the road. This will be Rodriguez's first start off the DL and he showed little promise of being any better in his two rehab starts, as he allowed 11 runs on 11 hits with 6 walks over just 8 2/3 innings of work.

System - Gallardo is 32-16 (67%) over his last 48 starts against a team that's hitting .255 or worse on the season. BET THE BREWERS -143!

5* Blue Chip NL Total of the Month

---Braves/Cardinals Under 7---

The St Louis Cardinals have one of the best starters in baseball taking the mound tonight in Adam Wainwright, who I fully expect to rebound from a rough start against the Cubs with a dominant showing against a struggling Atlanta offense. In Wainwright's previous three starts before getting hit hard by Chicago, he didn't allow a single run over 24 innings.

The other key to a low-scoring game is that Atlanta will send out lefty Mike Minor. In his season debut last Friday, Minor allowed just 2 runs over 6 innings. The thing I love is that the St Louis has really struggled to get anything going offensively against left-handed starters. They are averaging just 2.9 runs and hitting a mere .213 as a team in their 7 games this season against a southpaw.

The UNDER is 20-4-2 in the Cardinals last 26 games against the NL East, 14-4-3 in their last 21 road games against a team with a winning record and 3-0-1 in Wainwright's last 4 starts against an opponent who scored 2 runs or less in their last game. The UNDER is also 10-1 in the Braves last 11 home games, 6-0 in their last 6 home games with a total set between 7 and 8.5 runs and 3-0-1 in Minor's last 4 starts against the NL Central. That's 86% Multi-System telling us to BET THE UNDER 7!

5* NL East Blue Chip Game of the Month

---Philadelphia Phillies -104---

I'll gladly back the Phillies at home with Cliff Lee on the mound. We are getting a great price here on Philadelphia because of the Nationals sending out Stephen Strasburg. While Strasburg is a big name, he hasn't pitched like an ace. He's just 2-2 with a 4.24 ERA and 1.412 WHIP in six starts. He's been even worse on the road, posting a 9.00 ERA and 1.800 WHIP in two starts. Lee is 3-2 with a 3.29 ERA, but what really stands out is his 2.40 ERA at home and 1.57 ERA over his last three starts. Lee also has a strong 2.87 ERA and 1.123 WHIP over 11 career starts against the Nationals.

Road teams with a money line of -100 to -150 (WASHINGTON) - average offensive team (4.3 to 4.8 runs/game) against a good starter (ERA<=3.70) (NL), with a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better on the season are just 14-33 (30%) over the last 5 seasons. BET THE PHILLIES -104!

5* Blue Chip NL Central Game of the Month

---Pittsburgh Pirates -112---

We are getting exceptional value on the Pirates in this one, as the Brewers are being overvalued due to their strong start. Milwaukee has cooled off considerably and are just 1-3 in their last 4 games. During this 4-game stretch the Brewers have scored just 8 runs.

I look for Pittsburgh's Charlie Morton to add to Milwaukee's struggles at the plate. Morton is 0-1 in his 3 starts so far in 2014, but has a solid 3.32 ERA and 1.211 WHIP. In his only start at home, he allowed just 4 hits and struck out 6 in 6 shutout innings.

The Brewers counter with Kyle Lohse, who is 2-1 with a 3.05 ERA, but was not good in his only start on the road. Lohse allowed 3 runs on 7 hits and 5 walks at Philadelphia. In his last start at Pittsburgh, the Pirates tagged Lohse for 5 runs on 13 hits. BET THE PIRATES -112!

5* AL West Game of the Month

---Texas Rangers -121---

We are getting the Rangers at a great price at home tonight. Texas will send out Yu Darvish, who is one of my favorites to win the 2014 AL Cy Young award. Darvish certainly has disappointed early. He's yet to allowed an earned run over 15 innings, giving him a 0.00 ERA and 0.667 WHIP in two starts. He faces a Mariners offense that has scored 1 or fewer runs in three of their last four games.

Seattle counters with Felix Hernandez, who is without a doubt one of the top pitchers in the game. However, he's struggled in his career against Texas. He's 12-20 with a 4.18 ERA and 1.328 WHIP over 39 starts. In his last two starts against the Rangers, Hernandez has given up 14 runs on 16 hits in just 8 innings of work.

Seattle is 0-5 in their last 5 games vs a starting pitcher with a WHIP less than 1.15, 1-5 in their last 6 games as an underdog and 4-11 in Hernandez's last 15 starts after the opposing team scored 5 runs or more in the last game. Texas is 8-1 in their last 9 vs a right-handed starter, 12-2 in their last 14 as a home favorite and 5-0 in Darvish's last 5 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150. BET THE RANGERS -121!