Sports Picks & Predictions

6* Widow Wiseguy Lafayette/Western Kentucky Sun Belt Surefire on Western Kentucky -3

*All picks are based on situations, trends, statistics and injuries among many other factors*

6* Widow Wiseguy 2013 SEC West GAME OF THE YEAR on Ole Miss +6

*All picks are based on situations, trends, statistics and injuries among many other factors*

6* Widow Wiseguy Temple/Cincinnati AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Cincinnati -20.5

*All picks are based on situations, trends, statistics and injuries among many other factors*

6* Widow Wiseguy Pac-12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Washington +8

*All picks are based on situations, trends, statistics and injuries among many other factors*

6* Widow Wiseguy BYU/Utah State NCAAF Friday Night "BLOOD BATH" on BYU +6

*All picks are based on situations, trends, statistics and injuries among many other factors*

6* Widow Wiseguy Texas/Iowa State ESPN GAME OF THE WEEK on Texas -7

*All picks are based on situations, trends, statistics and injuries among many other factors*

6* Widow Wiseguy Ole Miss/Alabama SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Ole Miss +14.5

*All picks are based on situations, trends, statistics and injuries among many other factors*

6* Widow Wiseguy Utah State/SJSU ESPN Friday Night Surefire on San Jose State +10

*All picks are based on situations, trends, statistics and injuries among many other factors*

6* Widow Wiseguy NCAAF "Letdown" GAME OF THE YEAR on Colorado State +39.5

*All picks are based on situations, trends, statistics and injuries among many other factors*

6* Widow Wiseguy Instate Rivalry GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa -1.5

*All picks are based on situations, trends, statistics and injuries among many other factors*

6* Widow Wiseguy Air Force/Boise ESPN Surefire on Air Force +24

*All picks are based on situations, trends, statistics and injuries among many other factors*

6* Widow Wiseguy NCAA Football DOG OF THE MONTH on Air Force +10

*All picks are based on situations, trends, statistics and injuries among many other factors*

6* Widow Wiseguy Wake Forest/Boston College ACC Surefire on Boston College -2.5

*All picks are based on situations, trends, statistics and injuries among many other factors*

6* Widow Wiseguy FSU/Pitt ESPN Monday Night Surefire on Florida State -10

*All picks are based on situations, trends, statistics and injuries among many other factors*

6* Widow Wiseguy Ohio/Louisville ESPN Sunday Afternoon Surefire on Ohio +21

*All picks are based on situations, trends, statistics and injuries among many other factors*

6* Widow Wiseguy College Football Week 1 GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa -3

*All picks are based on situations, trends, statistics and injuries among many other factors*

6* Widow Wiseguy NCAAF Friday Night Line Mistake on Florida Atlantic +31

*All picks are based on situations, trends, statistics and injuries among many other factors*

6* UNC/South Carolina CFB Season Opening GAME OF THE YEAR on North Carolina +13

*All picks are based on situations, trends, statistics and injuries among many other factors*

6* Widow Wiseguy 2013 College Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Notre Dame +10

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish have been underrated all season. They are catching double-digits against Alabama in the BCS Championship, once again getting overlooked by oddsmakers. Notre Dame went 12-0 this season against a tougher schedule than Alabama (12-1) played. Sure, they had some narrow wins along the way, but this team is built for playing close games. They rank 1st in the country in scoring defense at 10.3 points/game allowed. They run a ball-control offense and don't turn the ball over often as well. These are two very evenly-matched teams that play similar styles, and there's simply not 10 points' difference between them. Brian Kelly is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in road games after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games as the coach of Notre Dame. Take Notre Dame and the points.

6* Widow Wiseguy Aggies/Sooners Former Big 12 Rivals BEAT DOWN on Texas A&M -3

The Texas A&M Aggies were one loss away from playing in the SEC Title game and possibly for a National Championship. If they could have won either of their games against LSU and Florida, which were two losses by a combined 8 points, they would have overtaken Alabama for the SEC West title after beating the Crimson Tide on the road 29-24 on November 10th. In fact, the Aggies are a perfect 6-0 on the road this season. Oklahoma gives up 181 rushing yards/game and 4.8/carry, so I look for the Aggies, who rush for 235 yards/game and 5.6/carry, to run wild on the Sooners tonight. Bob Stoops is 0-6 ATS against SEC opponents as the coach of Oklahoma. Take Texas A&M and lay the points.

6* Widow Wiseguy Wildcats/Ducks Fiesta Bowl Surefire on Oregon -7.5

The Oregon Ducks simply have too much speed for Kansas State to compete. Baylor is a very similar team to Oregon in terms of offensive tempo and speed. The Bears handed Kansas State their only loss of the season in a 52-24 home victory. I look for a similar blowout in this one as the Wildcats get behind early and can never catch up as their defense wears down early into the second half, allowing the Ducks to continue piling on the points. Chip Kelly is 6-0 ATS in road games after 5 consecutive games where they forced 2 or more turnovers as the coach of Oregon. Take the Ducks and lay the points.

6* Widow Wiseguy Louisville/Florida Sugar Bowl Surefire on Louisville +14.5

The Louisville Cardinals are showing awesome value as a 14.5-point underdog to the Florida Gators in the Sugar Bowl. This team has not been getting the respect it deserves all season as it won 10 games behind the steady play of quarterback Teddy Bridgewater. Bridgewater led the Big East with a 161.6 passer rating that ranked seventh in the nation, tossing for 3,452 yards and 25 touchdowns. Florida struggled all season as a heavy favorite. It beat Bowling Green 27-14 at home as a 28-point favorite, Missouri 14-7 at home as a 17.5-point favorite, LA Lafayette 27-20 at home as a 27-point favorite, and Jacksonville State 23-0 at home as a 37.5-point favorite. Louisville is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%) over the last 3 seasons. Take Louisville and the points.

6* Widow Wiseguy 2013 BCS Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Wisconsin +6

All five of Wisconsin's losses this season have come by 7 points or less. That 7-point loss was in overtime to Ohio State, and the other four losses have come by exactly 3 points. This team is much better than a 5-loss team. They have been told in the media that they don't belong in the Rose Bowl because they only got in because of postseason bans by Ohio State and Penn State. These players are going to use that as motivation, plus they'll be hungry from two straight heartbreaking losses in the Rose Bowl over the past two years. I fully expect the Badgers to win this one outright. The Pac-12 has not done well in bowls thus far, and this will be another shot to the conference tonight. Take Wisconsin and the points.

6* Widow Wiseguy ISU/Tulsa Liberty Bowl Surefire on Tulsa +2

The Tulsa Golden Hurricane want revenge from a 23-38 road loss to the Iowa State Cyclones in the first week of the season. After that loss, the Golden Hurricane went on to win 10 games this year and a Conference USA title. This is clearly a much-improved team from the first meeting. Tulsa is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse over the last 3 seasons. Take Tulsa and the points.

6* Widow Wiseguy College Bowl Saturday GAME OF THE DAY on Navy +14

The Navy Midshipmen should not be catching two touchdowns from Arizona State Saturday. This is one of the hottest teams in the country as they have won seven of their last eight games overall. It's no coincidence that freshman quarterback Keenan Reynolds took over eight games ago as he has been solely responsible for the turnaround. Plays on underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (NAVY) - off a no-cover where the team won as a favorite, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record are 33-6 (84.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Take Navy and the points.

6* Widow Wiseguy Cincinnati/Duke Belk Bowl Surefire on Duke +9.5

The Duke Blue Devils aren't getting the respect they deserve from oddsmakers because of their 0-4 finish. Well, those four games came against Florida State, Clemson, Miami and Georgia Tech, which are the four best teams in the ACC. Cincinnati lost head coach Butch Jones to Tennessee, and his absence will really hurt this team mentally. Cincinnati is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games vs. very bad defensive teams who give up 34 or more points/game since 1992. The Blue Devils are going bowling for the first time since 1994, and they simply want to be here more. Take Duke and the points.

6* Little Caesar's Pizza Bowl Surefire on Fresno State -11.5

The Fresno State Bulldogs are one of the best teams in the country that gets overlooked. Their only losses this season came at Oregon, at Tulsa and at Boise State. Fresno State won nine games this year with all nine of those victories coming by 12 or more points. As a result, the Bulldogs went a perfect 9-0 ATS as a favorite this season. They went 11-1 ATS at the pay window overall to really show how underrated they were all season. I look for the Bulldogs to pick up win No. 10 by 12 or more points as well Monday. Take Fresno State and lay the points.

6* Widow Wiseguy Las Vegas Bowl "BLOOD BATH" on Washington +6

This is a very evenly-matched game between two of the best defenses in the country. I believe the difference in this game will be Washington's offense behind talented quarterback Keith Price. This is the same Washington team that beat Pac-12 champ Stanford, while also topping a very good Oregon State squad. Boise State didn't have a great win all season. It lost to Michigan State and San Diego State. Its best wins came against BYU and Nevada, but those came by a combined 7 points. The Broncos are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record. The Huskies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss. Take Washington and the points.

6* Widow Wiseguy Ball State/UCF Bowl GAME OF THE WEEK on Ball State +7.5

The Ball State Cardinals are not getting the respect they deserve from oddsmakers tonight. I'll gladly take the 7.5 points in a game that I believe they are going to win outright. Ball State won nine games this season with its only three losses coming to Top 25 opponents in Clemson, Northern Illinois and Kent State. Ball State is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) off a close win by 7 points or less over a conference rival over the last 2 seasons. The Cardinals are 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) off a road win over the last 2 seasons. Ball State is 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) in road games versus good rushing teams - averaging >=4.75 rushing yards/carry since 1992. Take this combined 25-2 ATS angle in favor of the Cardinals straight to the bank. Take Ball State and the points.

6* Widow Wiseguy BYU/SDSU Poinsettia Bowl Surefire on BYU -3

The BYU Cougars will win and cover this game against San Diego State behind one of the best defenses in the country. BYU gives up just 14.7 points/game while ranking 3rd in the FBS in total defense at 266.3 yards/game. The Cougars have won nine of their last 10 meetings with San Diego State. BYU is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 4 straight games since 1992. The Cougars are 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) after having won 3 out of their last 4 games over the last 3 seasons. BYU is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse over the last 3 seasons. Take this combined 23-0 ATS angle straight to the bank. Take BYU and lay the points.

6* Widow Wiseguy Nevada/Arizona Bowl GAME OF THE WEEK on Nevada +9

*No Analysis, On Vacation*

6* Widow Wiseguy Army/Navy NBC Saturday Afternoon Surefire on Navy -6.5

Navy is clearly the stronger team this season at 7-4 against an Army team that is just 2-9. Navy has won six of its last seven games ever since switching to freshman Keenan Reynolds as its starting quarterback. Army is coming off a terrible 32-63 loss to Temple as the Owls rushed for 534 yards on them. Navy has the better run defense in this one, which will be the difference. Rich Ellerson is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games after gaining 275 or more rushing yards in 2 straight games as the coach of Army. Take Navy and lay the points.

6* Widow Wiseguy Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Baylor +5

The Oklahoma State Cowboys will suffer a letdown from their overtime loss to Oklahoma last week. They have nothing to play for here as they are already bowl eligible but cannot win the Big 12. Baylor has a lot to play for as this will be Senior Day. There's no question the Bears will be amped up to send their seniors out with a victory. Quarterback Nick Florence and receiver Terrance Williams are among 23 seniors that will be honored before the game. These seniors are certainly responsible for helping turn around Baylor's football program over the last few years. Oklahoma State is 1-3 on the road and giving up 42.0 points/game, while Baylor is 4-1 at home, scoring 44.2 points/game and allowing 26.8 points/game. The Bears are is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons. Take Baylor and the points.

6* Widow Wiseguy NIU/Kent State MAC Championship Surefire on Kent State +7.5

The Kent State Golden Flashes are the real deal this season, yet they continue to get overlooked by oddsmakers. They are 11-1 SU & 10-2 ATS on the season, which includes a win at Rutgers. In fact, ten of their 11 wins have come by 7 points or more. Kent State is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) off a win against a conference rival this season. The Golden Flashes are 7-0 ATS 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival over the last 2 seasons. Kent State is 6-0 ATS in its last 6 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. The Golden Flashes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. Take this combined 24-0 ATS angle straight to the bank tonight. Take Kent State and the points.

6* Widow Wiseguy 2012 SEC GAME OF THE YEAR on Missouri +22

The Missouri Tigers are showing excellent value Saturday as more than a three-touchdown underdog to Texas A&M. The Aggies are way over-hyped right now due to the solid play of quarterback Johnny "Football" Manziel. There's no question that Texas A&M has a great team, but it is not 22 points better than Missouri, a former Big 12 rival. Missouri has won three straight and 5 of its last 6 meetings with Texas A&M. That includes two road wins in its last two trips to College Station. The Tigers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. loss. Take Missouri and the points.

6* Widow Wiseguy ASU/Arizona ESPN Friday Night "BAILOUT" on Arizona -3

The Arizona Wildcats should be a much heavier home favorite over in-state rival Arizona State Friday night. Arizona has played its best football at home this season where it is 6-1 and outscoring opponents by 20.6 points per game. Arizona State is just 2-3 on the road this season. Arizona State is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in road games vs. incredible offensive teams - scoring 37 or more points/game since 1992. The Sun Devils are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. Arizona State is 16-33-3 ATS in their last 52 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Wildcats are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Friday games. Take Arizona and lay the points.

6* Widow Wiseguy Akron/Toledo MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Akron +19.5

The Akron Zips come into this game on nine days' rest having last played on November 10th. The Toledo Rockets are only on five days' rest after playing last Wednesday, November 14th. The Rockets lost that game to 24-31 to Northern Illinois. It was a huge loss for them considering the winner had the inside track to the MAC title game. Now, Toledo has been eliminated from contention. I look for it to suffer a hangover from that defeat as it struggles to get motivated to face Akron in this one. The Zips will have no trouble moving the ball through the air. Akron is averaging 317 passing yards per game and it will be up against a Toledo defense surrendering 298 passing yards per contest. Take Akron and the points.

6* Widow Wiseguy Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Indiana +19

Penn State is coming off a heartbreaking defeat against Nebraska last Saturday, and it will suffer a hangover this week against an underrated Indiana team. This line is way inflated because Indiana got killed by Wisconsin last week, which was its first blowout loss of the season and a tough match-up because of the Badgers' ability to run the football. Indiana still has a fighting chance to make a bowl game if it were to win its last two contests. The Hoosiers are 4-6 with five of those six losses coming by 15 points or less, including four by 4 points or less. They lost to Michigan State by 4, Ohio State by 3, Ball State by 2 and Navy by 1. Those four close losses there against solid competition really show what Indiana is capable of. Penn State hasn't been favored by more than 6.5 points all season, which is why it is way overvalued here. Plays on road underdogs (INDIANA) - off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival, with 6+ more total starters returning than opponent are 58-25 (69.9%) ATS since 1992. Penn State beat Indiana 16-10 last season as a 14-point favorite, and it is once again laying too many points in 2012. Take Indiana and the points.

6* Widow Wiseguy Hawaii/Air Force ESPN 2 GAME OF THE WEEK on Air Force -22.5

At 1-8, Hawaii is one of the worst teams in the country. Their lone win came against Lamar in the second game of the season. Six of Hawaii's eight losses have come by 35 or more points. Off two straight losses, Air Force needs a win here tonight to become bowl eligible. They play at Fresno State next week, so this is certainly their best chance for a win. The Falcons won't be taking the Warriors lightly with a bowl on the line tonight. Hawaii ranks 98th in the country against the run (209.8 yards/game) while Air Force ranks 2nd in rushing (335.3 yards/game). The Warriors' inability to stop the run will be the reason Air Force keeps on piling on the points, and eventually covers this 22.5-point spread. Take Air Force and lay the points.

6* Widow Wiseguy Toledo/NIU ESPN 2 Wednesday Night Surefire on Toledo +11

The Toledo Rockets get the call Wednesday as a double-digit underdog to Northern Illinois. Toledo only has two losses all season, and both came by exactly 7 points to Arizona and Ball State. This team is the real deal and it's looking for revenge from a heartbreaking 63-60 loss to Northern Illinois that cost it a chance to play in the MAC title game. Northern Illinois is getting way too much respect for its 9-game winning streak that has come against an extremely soft schedule. Plays against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (N ILLINOIS) - after 8 or more consecutive straight up wins, a top-level team (>= 80%) playing a good team (60% to 80%) are 40-13 (75.5%) ATS since 1992. This system's record is 5-1 (83%) over the last three seasons and 9-2 (82%) over the last five years. Take Toledo and the points.

6* Widow Wiseguy 2012 Big 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Texas -10

The Texas Longhorns will roll the Iowa State Cyclones Saturday. Texas remembers two years ago when it was coming off a big upset win at Nebraska and fell flat on its faces at home the following week against Iowa State. It won't make the same mistake again off a huge win at Texas Tech last Saturday. Texas beat Iowa State 37-14 on the road last season, and I expect a similar beat down this time around. The Longhorns are playing their best football of the season right now off three straight victories and should be a heavier favorite. Take Texas and lay the points.

6* Widow Wiseguy Pitt/UConn Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on Connecticut +3.5

The Pitt Panthers come into this game deflated from their triple-overtime loss at Notre Dame last Saturday. I expect they won't even show up after such a heartbreaking defeat, and I look for Connecticut to take advantage and win this game outright. While the Huskies are just 3-6, I have no doubt they are better than their record because they are outgaining opponents by roughly 28 yards per game. They have a tremendous defense that gives up just 18.6 points and 290.2 yards per game this season. Pittsburgh is just 1-3 on the road where it is scoring 17.2 points per game. It will have a hard time putting up points against this tough UConn defense. UConn head coach Paul Pasqualoni is 7-0 ATS in home games after having lost 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games in all games he has coached. Take the Huskies and the points.

6* Widow Wiseguy FSU/VA Tech ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Virginia Tech +14

Virginia Tech has not played up to its potential this season in the record column. That's why it is a two-touchdown home underdog against Florida State and showing excellent value Thursday. The Hokies are a much better team than they've shown, and all five of their losses have come on the road this season. Virginia Tech is 4-0 at home, outscoring opponents by 24.0 points per game. Florida State has played a soft schedule this season, and it is overvalued because of it. The Seminoles are 2-1 on the road, outscoring opponents by 8.3 points per game with their largest margin of victory coming by 13 points. This one will go right down to the wire folks, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Hokies win outright because they have the potential to do it. Take Virginia Tech and the points.

6* Widow Wiseguy BG/Ohio MAC Wednesday Night "BLOOD BATH" on Ohio -2.5

The Ohio Bobcats are showing excellent value as a 2.5-point home favorite tonight against Bowling Green. They are the better team in this one and should be a much heavier home favorite. Bowling Green is getting a lot of love due to their 5-game winning streak, but it has come against five cupcake opponents. All three of the Falcons' losses this season have come on the road where they are scoring a mere 15.4 points per game. Ohio is 8-1 overall, including 5-0 at home where it is scoring 42.4 points per game and outscoring opponents by 21.0 points per game. Ohio is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in home games versus good rushing defenses - allowing <=120 rushing yards/game since 1992. The Bobcats are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. Take this combined 15-1 (94%) ATS Angle straight to the bank Wednesday. Take Ohio and lay the points.

6* Widow Wiseguy Ball State/Toledo MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Ball State +7

The Ball State Cardinals are showing excellent value Tuesday as a touchdown underdog to the Toledo Rockets. Toledo gets way too much respect for being 8-1 this season as four of its eight wins have come by 5 points or less. This team is actually getting outgained on the season despite its record because of a defense that is giving up a ridiculous 465 total yards per game. Ball State is 6-3 this season with all three of its losses coming against one-loss teams that are a combined 25-3 this year. This is a huge look ahead spot for the Rockets considering they have Northern Illinois on deck, which is the only other unbeaten team in MAC play. Ball State gets Toledo at the right time because of it, and I believe the Cardinals are simply the better team because they've played a much tougher schedule. Ball State is 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) as a road underdog of 7 points or less since 1992. The Rockets are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a bye week. Toledo is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The road team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings. Take this combined 26-2 (93%) ATS angle straight to the bank tonight. Take Ball State and the points.

6* Widow Wiseguy 2012 Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR on Indiana -1.5

Iowa is simply terrible this season. Indiana is favored for a reason here as it is one of the best teams in the country that not too many people know about. Indiana is much better than its 3-5 record. It has four losses by 4 points or less against Navy, Ohio State, Michigan State and Ball State. This team is the real deal, but it has just been unfortunate in close games. The Hawkeyes are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Hoosiers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall. Take Indiana and lay the points.

6* Widow Wiseguy Washington/Cal Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Washington +4.5

The Washington Huskies are clearly the superior team here. They have managed to get through an absolutely brutal schedule that has featured LSU, Stanford, Oregon, USC, Arizona and Oregon State at a very respectable 4-4. Cal is just 3-6 on the season with its lone wins coming against Southern Utah, UCLA and Washington State. This is clearly a rebuilding year for the Bears, and they could find themselves looking ahead to Oregon next week. Washington is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three meetings with Cal, so it has the Bears' number as well. The Huskies are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Friday games. Washington is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 vs. a team with a losing record. The Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games. I'll gladly back the better team here catching points when they shouldn't be. Take Washington and the points.

6* Widow Wiseguy CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Kent State +14

The Kent State Golden Flashes are one of the most underrated teams in the entire country. They are off to a 6-1 start this season with five of those wins coming by double-digits. Rutgers is a very good team at 7-0, but it isn't going to run away with this contest by more than two touchdowns. The Scarlet Knights are simply overvalued here in a letdown spot against a non-conference opponent. Kent State is 6-0 ATS in games played on turf this season. Take Kent State and the points.

6* Widow Wiseguy Sun Belt GAME OF THE WEEK on Arkansas State +5

The Arkansas State Red Wolves have played a very tough schedule this season and they've gotten through it at 4-3 thus far. Two of their losses came on the road against Oregon and Nebraska, and the other was against Sun Belt power Western Kentucky, a game in which they blew a 13-point halftime lead. Arkansas State is outgaining opponents 449-376 for an average of 73 yards/game, while Louisiana-Lafayette is actually getting outgained 404-422, or by an average of 18 yards/game. These numbers are very telling given the strength of schedule these teams have faced, with the Red Wolves up against a much tougher schedule to this point. I really like Arkansas State QB Ryan Aplin, who has thrown for 1,572 yards and 11 touchdowns to two interceptions, while also rushing for 244 yards and three scores. I trust him a lot more than LA-Lafayette's backup QB Terrance Broadway, who did not play well in a loss to North Texas last week as he kept overthrowing receivers down the field. Take Arkansas State and the points.

6* Widow Wiseguy Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on TCU +2

The TCU Horned Frogs should not be an underdog at home to the Texas Tech Red Raiders. Texas Tech is coming off a huge blowout win over West Virginia, and it is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers after that victory. Many people are down on TCU because of its home loss to Iowa State two weeks ago, but that Cyclones' team is better than it gets credit for, and the Frogs basically gave the game away by committing five turnovers. I know Tech beat Iowa State, but the Cyclones gave the ball away four times in that one. TCU's true colors showed in a thorough 49-21 beat down of Baylor on the road last week. The Frogs forced four interceptions in that game, and they have one of the best pass defenses in the land, which will be huge against Texas Tech's pass-happy offense. TCU is 15th in total defense (300.8 yards/game), including 31st against the pass (205.3 yards/game). Gary Patterson is 13-2 ATS after allowing 325 or more passing yards in their last game as the coach of TCU. Patterson is also 14-4 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of TCU. Take TCU and the points.

6* Widow Wiseguy UConn/Syracuse ESPN Friday Night Surefire on Syracuse -4

Syracuse is 2-1 at home this season with its only loss coming to USC. It has averaged 27.7 points and 483 total yards/game in three home contests this year. UConn is 1-2 on the road, scoring 17.0 points while averaging a mere 297 total yards/game. I just don't believe the Huskies have the offensive firepower to keep up with this underrated Orange offense tonight. UConn is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons, getting outscoring by 12.5 points/game in this spot. Take Syracuse and lay the points.

6* Widow Wiseguy LA-Lafayette/North Texas Sun Belt Surefire on Louisiana-Lafayette -4

The Louisiana-Lafayette Rajin' Cajuns are the superior team in this match-up. They are off to a 4-1 start, and you can look at one game to realize why they are the better team in this one. Lafayette went on the road and won at Troy 37-24, while North Texas lost at home to Troy 7-14. That common opponent says a lot about the quality of these two squads, especially considering the results home/away. Plus, Lafayette has won five straight meetings with North Texas. The Ragin' Cajuns are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Mean Green are 6-20 ATS in their last 26 vs. a team with a winning record. Lafayette is 10-0 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 3 seasons. Take Lafayette and lay the points.

6* Widow Wiseguy ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Miami +8

The Miami Hurricanes are showing excellent value as an 8-point home underdog Saturday. This line is an overreaction from what happened last week. The Tar Heels beat Virginia Tech by 14 points at home, while the Hurricanes lost at Notre Dame 3-41. UNC is feeling good about themselves and getting patted on the back. Meanwhile, Miami is furious over its performance, and I look for them to take it out on the Tar Heels here. Miami is 3-0 in ACC play and scoring 42.3 points/game, and it is 2-0 at home this season scoring 41.0 points/game. UNC is 0-2 on the road, giving up 33.5 points/game away from home. Miami is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 2 seasons. The Tar Heels are 4-18 ATS (-15.8 Units) after scoring 31 points or more in 2 straight games since 1992. The Tar Heels are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Take Miami and the points.

6* Widow Wiseguy LSU/Florida SEC GAME OF THE YEAR on Florida +3

The Florida Gators are the real deal this season, and they'll prove it by knocking off No. 4 LSU Saturday in The Swamp. The Tigers are one of the most overrated teams in the country this year. That was evident with their 12-10 win at Auburn as an 18-point favorite, and their 38-22 home victory over Towson last week as a 43.5-point favorite. Florida has two great wins this year at Texas A&M and Tennessee to prove they are for real. The Gators also come off a bye, which gives them a huge edge in rest and preparation. The Gators are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a bye week. Take Florida and the points.

6* Widow Wiseguy Pitt/Syracuse Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on Syracuse -1.5

The Syracuse Orange say enough is enough tonight. After losing the last seven meetings to Pittsburgh, it's time for them to put an end to this losing streak. The Orange are favored for a good reason tonight as oddsmakers know that they are the play here. This is the best 1-3 team in the country folks as their three losses have come to USC, Minnesota and Northwestern by a combined 21 points. Despite being 1-3, the Orange have actually outgained all four opponents that they have faced, and they probably should be 4-0 if not for turnovers. I look for Syracuse to take care of the football tonight, which will be the key to putting an end to their losing streaking in this series. The Orange are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a bye week. The favorite is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings. Take Syracuse and lay the points.

6* Widow Wiseguy ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Miami -2.5

*No Analysis On Vacation*

6* Widow Wiseguy Hawaii/BYU ESPN Friday Night Surefire on BYU -27.5

The BYU Cougars are looking to take out their frustration on the Hawaii Warriors tonight. I believe they do so by four-plus touchdowns to easily cover this big number with room to spare. BYU has lost its last two games on the road to Utah and Boise State by a combined four points. It has a lot of anger built up inside, and the Warriors aren't going to stand a chance when the Cougars unleash that anger on them tonight. Hawaii just lost at home 24-69 to Nevada last time out, which was their second loss of the season by 39 or more points. This is a team in rebuilding mode and one that isn't even on the same planet as BYU talent-wise. Hawaii is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons. BYU is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons. The Cougars are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. MWC foes. Take this combined 21-1 ATS Angle in favor of the Cougars straight to the bank tonight. Take BYU and lay the points.

6* Widow Wiseguy CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Penn State -7

The Penn State Nittany Lions will have their way with the Temple Owls at home Saturday. After essentially giving away their first two games against Ohio and Virginia, the Nittany Lions responded with a dominant 34-7 home victory over Navy last week. Temple is one of the most inexperienced teams in the country with only eight starters back, and I look for the Nittany Lions to put a similar beat down on the Owls that they did on the Midshipmen last week. Temple has had problems moving the ball in their first two games against Maryland and Villanova. It is only averaging 296 total yards per game. Now, it faces a much stiffer test against a very solid Penn State defense. Penn State QB Matt McGloin has been on the money this season, throwing for 688 yards and eight touchdowns with only one interception. Take Penn State and lay the points.

6* Widow Wiseguy Baylor/LA-Monroe ESPN GAME OF THE WEEK on Louisiana-Monroe +7.5

The Baylor Bears have not played a worthy opponent yet. They topped SMU at home 59-24, then had to rally from a 10-20 first half deficit against Sam Houston State to win 48-23 at home. This will be their first road game of the season, and they'll likely struggle tonight. Plus, Baylor will be looking ahead to its first Big 12 game against West Virginia next week. I could not be more impressed with Louisiana-Monroe to this point. The Warhawks have gone on the road and taken both Arkansas and Auburn to overtime. Quarterback Kolton Browning is the real deal, and these fans will be fired up to see he and the Warhawks in their first home game of the season tonight. The Bears are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games. The Warhawks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. Take Louisiana-Monroe and the points.

6* Widow Wiseguy MAC GAME OF THE YEAR on Buffalo -3

The Buffalo Bulls are going to run away with this home contest against Kent State tonight. Buffalo has clearly been the more impressive team thus far, giving Georgia a run for their money on the road in a 23-45 loss. The Bulls managed 347 total yards, including 199 rushing against a very good Georgia defense. They came back with a 56-34 home victory over Morgan State in Week 2. Kent State beat Towson 41-21 in their opener, but the Golden Flashes only gained 267 yards against that FCS oppenent, and Towson actually outgained them in the game. Kent State went on the road and lost 14-47 at Kentucky the next week, and the Wildcats are one of the worst BCS teams in the nation. The Golden Flashes are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games in September. Kent State is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 road games. Take Buffalo and lay the points.

6* Widow Wiseguy ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Florida State -28

The Florida State Seminoles will beat the Wake Forest Demon Deacons by more than four touchdowns Saturday. Wake Forest is one of the worst teams in the ACC, while FSU is a legitimate national title contender. The Seminoles want revenge from a 30-35 road loss at Wake Forest last season. Plays on home favorites of 21.5 or more points (FLORIDA ST) - excellent offensive team (>=6.2 YPP) against a team with an average defense (4.8 to 5.6 YPP), after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games are 25-5 (83.3%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Take Florida State and lay the points.

6* Widow Wiseguy Cougars/Rebels ESPN GAME OF THE WEEK on Washington State -8

Even though Jeff Tuel is unlikely to play at quarterback, Washington State is in good hands tonight with sophomore Connor Halliday. He has some experience after getting inserted as a freshman last year. He threw for 494 yards and four touchdowns in a win over Arizona State, and he threw for 289 yards and two touchdowns in a loss to Utah. I have no doubt the Cougars will win this game by double-digits even with Halliday under center. Washington State beat UNLV 59-7 at home last year, and I expect a similar beat down on the road this time around. The Rebels are 19-44-1 ATS in their last 64 games following a S.U. loss. The Rebels are 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) off a home loss over the last 3 seasons. Take Washington State and lay the points.

6* Widow Wiseguy Sun Belt GAME OF THE MONTH on Troy -2.5

From 2006-10, the Troy Trojans won at least a share of the Sun Belt title for five straight years. After a down 3-9 campaign in 2011, I fully expect the Trojans to compete for a conference title in 2012 under 22nd-year head coach Larry Blakeney. Troy has 15 starters and 47 lettermen back from last season, and these guys will be playing with a chip on their shoulder. QB Corey Robinson is back after completing 62.2 percent of his passes for 3,411 yards with 21 touchdowns and 15 interceptions last year. He has his top four receivers back, and nine starters return on offense in all. Troy has won five of the last six meetings with UL Lafayette, and it will be looking to avenge last year's 31-17 road loss. The Trojans had a decent test in Week 1, but proved victorious with a 39-29 victory at UAB. Meanwhile, Lafayette played a cupcake in Lamar, and it will not be battle-tested like the Trojans. The Ragin' Cajuns are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. Plays against road underdogs (LA LAFAYETTE) - good offensive team from last season - scored 31 or more points/game, with an experienced QB returning as starter, in the first two weeks of the season are 35-14 (71.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Take Troy and lay the points.

6* Widow Wiseguy Utah/Utah State ESPN 2 GAME OF THE WEEK on Utah -7

The Utah Utes have 16 starters back from last season, and basically all of their best players. The Utah State Aggies bring back just 12 starters, and lose their top two rushers, who combined for 2,387 yards and 28 touchdowns on the ground last season. Utah is a sleeper in the Pac-12 this season after going 8-5 in their first year in the conference in 2011. The Utes won their opener 41-0, limiting Northern Colorado to just 114 total yards defensively. Utah has beaten Utah State 12 straight times while outscoring the Aggies by an average of 24 points/game. The Utes are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Utah State. The Road team is 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings. The Aggies are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. Take Utah and lay the points.

6* Wiseguy Wiseguy Panthers/Bearcats ESPN Thursday Night Surefire on Cincinnati -3.5

The Cincinnati Bearcats should be a much heavier favorite over the Pittsburgh Panthers tonight. Pittsburgh lost 31-17 to Youngstown State at home in its opener, and there's no question this is a team that is rebuilding under first-year head coach Paul Chryst. Pitt gave up 381 total yards to Youngstown State, including 204 on the ground. Cincinnati is a good rushing team behind dual-threat QB Munchie Legaux, and should have its way with this Panthers defense as well. The Bearcats have seven starters back from a defense that gave up just 20.3 points/game last season. The Bearcats are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. The home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. Take Cincinnati and lay the points.

6* Widow Wiseguy Hokies/Yellow Jackets ESPN Monday Night Surefire on Georgia Tech +7.5

The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are a legit ACC Coastal Division contender this season. Georgia Tech won the ACC in 2009, and they have the talent to do it again in 2012. The Yellow Jackets return 13 starters and most of their best players from a team that went 8-5 last year. QB Tevin Washington (1,652 passing yards, 986 rushing yards, 25 total TD) returns to lead the offense. He'll be joined by David Sims (698 yards, seven TD), Orwin Smith, (615 yards, 11 TD) and four returning starters along the offensive line. While Virginia Tech will have a good defense, it returns just three starters on offense. It will take some time for the Hokies to gel offensively, and it won't happen in Week 1. The Yellow Jackets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in September. The Hokies are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games. Take Georgia Tech and the points.

6* Widow Wiseguy Kentucky/Louisville Instate Rivalry GAME OF THE WEEK on Kentucky +13

This is a rivalry game, and anything goes in rivalry games. Kentucky, from the SEC, is simply getting too many points today against Louisville. Louisville is a popular pick to win the Big East, while Kentucky is a popular pick to finish last in the SEC East. As a result, the Wildcats are showing excellent value coming into this one. The Wildcats are 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 non-conference games. The road team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings. Take Kentucky and the points.

6* Widow Wiseguy Michigan/Alabama Week 1 GAME OF THE YEAR on Michigan +14

The Michigan Wolverines are showing excellent value as a two-touchdown underdog to the Alabama Crimson Tide Saturday. Alabama is clearly coming into 2012 over-hyped after winning its second national title in three years last season. The Crimson Tide will be their most vulnerable early because they return just 11 starters from last year's team. They lose arguably their three best players on defense in Dont'a Hightower, Mark Baron, and Courtney Upshaw, who were all taken early in the NFL Draft. They also lose the No. 3 overall pick in RB Trenton Richardson and their top four receivers from a year ago. Michigan has 13 starters back from a team that won 11 games, and it is my pick to win the Big Ten this season. Heisman Trophy candidate Denard Robinson is back to lead the offense, and the defense returns seven starters and nine of its top 11 tacklers from a unit that gave up just 17.4 points/game a year ago. The Wolverines are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 non-conference games. Take Michigan and the points.

6* Widow Wiseguy NC State/Tennessee ACC vs. SEC Surefire on Tennessee -3

The Tennessee Volunteers simply had a lot of breaks not go their way last season. They lost starting quarterback Tyler Bray for five games, and he still managed to throw for 1,983 yards and 17 touchdowns with six interceptions. They also lost their top receiver, Justin Hunter, after three games. Hunter had 17 receptions for 314 yards and two scores in just three starts last season. With 18 starters back, the Volunteers are going to be one of the most improved teams in the country. You'll see that right away as they make easy work of NC State in the Georgia Dome Friday night. Tennessee has nine starters back from a defense that allowed just 22.6 points/game in 2011 against one of the nation's toughest schedule. The Vols had to play LSU, Alabama and Arkansas from the SEC West last year, which were the three toughest teams in that division. The Volunteers are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite. Tennessee is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. Take the Volunteers and lay the points.

6* Widow Wiseguy Alabama/LSU BCS Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Alabama +1

The Alabama Crimson Tide thoroughly out-played LSU in their first meeting of the season, yet lost. The Tide outgained the Tigers 295-239 while missing four field goals, yet still only lost 6-9 in overtime. I strongly believe that Alabama is the better team, and that will show on the field tonight in a blowout. The Crimson Tide are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. Alabama is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games. Take Alabama and the points.

6* Widow Wiseguy K-State/Arkansas Cotton Bowl Surefire on Kansas State +8.5

Kansas State has defied the odds all season. This team has gone under the radar all year to post 10-2 SU & 9-3 ATS records. I don't believe they are getting the respect they deserve with this line tonight. Arkansas is a quality team from the SEC, but they are not more than a touchdown better than the Wildcats. Kansas State is a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0, while Arkansas is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 bowl games. Take Kansas State and the points.

6* Widow Wiseguy WVU/Clemson Orange Bowl "BLOOD BATH" on West Virginia +3.5

West Virginia gets the call Wednesday in the Orange Bowl as a 3.5-point underdog to the Clemson Tigers. WVU has won three straight, and each of their last four games were decided by 3 points or less. There is a very good chance this game is decided by a field goal as well, though I have WVU winning it outright. Clemson stumbled into the bowl season by losing three of their final five games. I clearly believe that WVU is the better team and their numbers have proven that. WVU put up 459.6 yards per game this season which was good for 16th in the country, while also allowing 340.3 yards per game which was 27th. Clemson averaged 441.5 yards per game which was 25th in the land, but they gave up 379.4 yards per game which was 59th. There's no question that WVU has a better defense, and that will likely be the difference in this game as both offense have proven they can put up points. The Mountaineers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 Wednesday games. WVU is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.5. Clemson is 0-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. Big East. The Tigers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 bowl games as a favorite. Take this combined 24-2 (92%) ATS Angle straight to the bank. Take West Virginia and the points.

6* Widow Wiseguy College Football Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Michigan -2.5

This is my favorite play for the entire 2011-12 bowl season. Michigan is going to roll over Virginia Tech in a blowout. Take the Wolverines and lay the points.