Sports Picks & Predictions

4* Major NCAAB *BEST BET* on NC-Wilmington +20.5
Bottom Line: Buzz Peterson is a good coach, and I'm confident we'll see a much better effort from his team than we saw in the opener. Teams headed up by Peterson are 74-51 ATS lifetime following 1 or more consecutive losses. Additionally, his squads are 16-6 ATS lifetime following a road loss where they were held to less than 60 points.

4* Major NCAAB *BEST BET* on Penn +5.5
Bottom Line: Penn has played Temple tough the past two seasons. It played the Owls to a 6-point game in the 2011-12 season as host, and it played them to a 7-point game on the road last season. I love the Quakers chances of keeping this one even tighter as they return their entire team. That includes 3 players who averaged double figures and 3 more that averaged 5 or more. Temple brings back just 1 starter, and will miss the scoring and playmaking ability of Khalif Wyatt dearly. The Owls are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 versus Ivy League opponents and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings against Penn.

4* Major NCAAB Double Digit *BLOOD BATH* on SMU -9
Bottom Line: This line opened at -10 at several books and was bet up to as high as -10.5 at several others. The line has been bet back down, but one of the most profitable early season systems still applies because of where the line was. Playing against underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points in the first 10 games of the season if they return 1 or no starters and made 42% or less of their shot attempts last season has resulted in a 43-16 ATS record since 1997. Teams fitting this scenario have lost by 20.5 points on average.

5* Wiseguy National Championship *PUNISHER* on Louisville -3.5
Bottom Line: Louisville is 15-0 in its last 15 games, and all of these wins have come by 4 points or more. It is also 6-0 ATS when laying 3.5 to 6.0 points on a neutral floor the last 2 seasons and has won by 14.8 points on average in these contests. Now that's saying something! In games oddsmakers have expected to be pretty close, the Cardinals have won by wide margins. Michigan is the more talented offensive team, but Louisville is superior defensively and I'm a firm believer in the old adage "defense wins championships". The Cardinals are also the more experienced bunch, and I think they have the edge with Rick Pitino as well. I'll go with defense and experience in the national title. Pound Louisville.

5* Wiseguy Final Four *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Michigan -2
Bottom Line: You want to go against neutral court underdogs like Syracuse that have defeated the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games as long as they are up against an opponent like Michigan that has gone over the total by 18 or more points total in its last three games because doing so has produced a 37-12 ATS result since 1997. This system tightens up to 8-1 ATS the last 3 seasons. This system makes sense too when you consider that oddsmakers decided to make Syracuse the underdog even though it recently kicked an Indiana team that defeated Michigan twice this season. This tells me oddsmakers like Michigan's chances of handling the zone, and I could not agree more as the Wolverines have 3 proven zone-busters in Burke, Hardaway Jr. and Stauskas. Michigan lights up the Orange.

4* Major Final Four *POWER PLAY* on Wichita State +10.5
Bottom Line: Louisville is being overvalued here. Consider that underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points that have won 2 or more consecutive games and are up against an opponent that has rattled off 9 or more consecutive wins are 71-36 ATS the last 5 seasons. Louisville depends on turning opponents over and Wichita State doesn't have many giveaways. Also, Wichita State beat everyone Louisville beat in terms of like opponents this season and beat those teams just as impressively. The Shockers are 10-3 ATS in non-conference games this season, and I like them to give the Cards a game this evening.

4* Major CBI Tournament *BLOOD BATH* on Santa Clara +1
Bottom Line: The Santa Clara Broncos are 9-0 ATS lifetime under coach Keating in postseason tournament games (excludes WCC tournament), winning these by an average score of 80.4 to 71.7. The Broncos are also a perfect 6-0 ATS this season in road games versus non-conference opponents. They have won these by an average of 6.5 points.

5* Wiseguy NIT *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on BYU +3
Bottom Line: I know Baylor beat BYU back in December, but that game was at home. I don't trust the Bears outside Waco where they have lost or won by 3 points or less in each of their last 7. BYU, on the other hand, has won or lost by 3 points or less in each of its last 3 outside Provo. These two trends create a 10-0 angle in our favor. Pound the Cougars.

4* Major CBI Tournament *POWER PLAY* on Santa Clara -7
Bottom Line: George Mason covered the spread with an impressive double-digit win over Western Michigan last time out but is 5-13 ATS in its last 18 after a win by 10 points or more and 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games following an ATS win. The Broncos are a terrific 5-0 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. They are also 8-0 ATS in their last 8 post-season tournament contests. This trend excludes the WCC tournament. I'm talking about CBI and CIT games.

4* Major Elite 8 *POWER PLAY* on Louisville -3.5
Bottom Line: Louisville is on another level right now. Duke won the first meeting by 5 points back in November, but I fully expect the Cardinals to have their revenge. Louisville won the battle of the boards, shot a higher percentage from the field and held Duke to 5 of 20 from 3-point range in the first meeting. The difference was Duke getting to the foul line 27 times and converting on 23 of those trips. Louisville only made 14 trips to the charity stripe. I just don't see there being as large of a disparity at the foul line in this one. The Cards have won 13 in a row with each of these wins coming by at least 5 points. Take Louisville.

5* Wiseguy Elite 8 *PUNISHER* on Michigan +2.5
Bottom Line: Look for Michigan to ride the momentum of Friday's thrilling victory to a Final Four trip. I have no doubt Trey Burke will be the best player on the floor, and he has the better supporting cast. The Wolverines are far more talented than Florida offensively, and I expect them to bring the "D" after not doing so against Kansas should have got them beat. Michigan is an outstanding 11-4 ATS in non-conference games this season. It is also 7-1 ATS in all neutral court games this season. And, the Wolverines are 23-12 ATS as an underdog over the last 3 seasons. Pound Michigan!

5* Wiseguy Elite 8 *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Ohio State -4
Bottom Line: It's been a great run for Wichita State, but it takes a big step up in competition here. This will be the best team its played all season while you can argue that Ohio State just beat two teams (Iowa State, Arizona) that are better than the Shockers. The Buckeyes are playing with a ton of confidence right now, which has been evident in the way they have been able to execute in the closing seconds of the last two games in high-pressure situations. I expect the Shockers to hang around for a while, but Ohio State's experience and superior talent will take hold late, helping the Buckeyes pull away. Wichita State is 1-8 ATS lifetime under coach Gregg as a neutral court underdog of 6 points or less or pick. Pound the Buckeyes.

4* Major Elite *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Marquette +4.5
Bottom Line: I really like Marquette catching points here as it has won 3 of the past 4 meetings in the series and has covered the number in each of the last 5 meetings. The Golden Eagles have been an outstanding underdog under Buzz Williams, which is a testament to how well he prepares and how hard he gets his kids to play. They are 32-14 ATS as a dog under his watch. I'll grab the points.

4* Major Sweet 16 Bailout on Florida -12.5
Bottom Line: It's been a nice run for FGCU, but I'm confident it comes to an end here. Brett Comer has had a terrific tournament, but I believe he'll struggle with the quickness of Florida's guards. The Eagles need Comer to have a big game to have a chance, and I don't see it happening. FCGC needs to play uptempo to be effective, but Florida can play any style and that gives it a huge advantage. Plus, the Gators are the far superior defensive team. They rank 3rd in the country in scoring defense (53.8 ppg allowed) and 5th in field goal percentage defense (37.8%). The Gators are 26-13 ATS in the Dance under Donovan, including 18-5 ATS in their last 23 NCAA Tournament games. Lay the number.

5* Wiseguy Sweet 16 *PUNISHER* on Duke -2
Bottom Line: Duke is 20-1 with Ryan Kelly in the lineup. The 6'11'' sharp-shooter doesn't even have to score for the Blue Devils to be successful. He knocks 3's in at a 45.9% clip so opponents have to pay extra attention to him. That opens things up for the other guys. Also, Coach K has had Izzo's number. Duke is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings with each of the wins coming by at least 5 points. Pound the Dukies.

4* Major South Region *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Michigan +2
Bottom Line: Beilein has proven himself time and time again in the NCAA tournament. His teams are 13-3 ATS in the Dance dating back to 1997. He's also proven himself against the Big 12 with his squads going 9-1 ATS versus Big 12 foes since 1997. He's 2-0 ATS versus Bill Self since coming to Michigan. Siding with Beilein in this one.

4* Major Sweet 16 SUREFIRE on Oregon +10
Bottom Line: Underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points are 70-36 ATS the last 5 seasons if they are off 2 or more consecutive wins and are matched up against an opponent off 9 or more consecutive wins. Basically, this system shows how oddsmakers overvalue teams on lengthy winning streak. The Ducks have come to play in the Dance, and I look for them to give Louisville a game.

4* Major Surefire Cinderella on La Salle +4.5
Bottom Line: Wichita State is being overvalued because it knocked off Gonzaga. Keep in mind that the Shockers made 14 3-point shots in that game. They average just 6 3-point makers on 32.6% shooting in road/neutral floor games on the season. La Salle is the superior long range team. It averages 8 3-point makes in road or neutral floor venues on 37.2% shooting. I expect it to win the long range battle and to have an excellent opportunity to pull off the upset. La Salle has been getting beat on the boards, but that hasn't mattered. Consider that the Explorers are 9-0 ATS lifetime under coach Giannini after 3 straight games of being outrebounded by 6 or more boards. It has won by an average of 5.1 points in this spot. La Salle has won with offense most of the season, and offensive teams have given the Shockers the most trouble. The Explorers give up 45.6% shooting on average, but Wichita State is 0-6 ATS lifetime under coach Marshall in road/neutral floor after 15+ games versus teams allowing 45% shooting or higher. The Shockers have lost to these teams by an average of 4.6 points.

5* Wiseguy Sweet 16 *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Indiana -5
Bottom Line: I have felt Indiana is the best team in college basketball all season, and I stand by that. Both of these teams are top-notch defensively, but Indiana is the superior offensive side. That gives it the big edge. Besides, Boeheim's track record in the Sweet 16 is not encouraging. The Orange are 0-6 ATS under Boeheim in the "sweet 16" round of the NCAA tournament. They haven't just lost these games, they've lost them by 7.7 points on average.

4* Major *BLOOD BATH* on Ohio State -3
Bottom Line: Arizona had a nice draw with Belmont and Harvard, but it takes a big step up in competition here and I believe it will get hit in the mouth. The Buckeyes have won 10 in a row by an average of 11.5 points with each of these wins coming by at least 3. Ohio State's defense will be the difference as Arizona hasn't seen a team as good defensively as Ohio State in a very long time.

4* Major *POWER PLAY* on Marquette +5.5
Bottom Line: Everyone and their mother is on Miami, but I'll gladly take the points with this physical and gritty Marquette squad. The Golden Eagles are an impressive 31-14 ATS under coach Williams in the underdog role. They have lost these games on average but only by 2.9 points. Plus, Marquette is 17-7 ATS the last 3 seasons versus teams that carry a winning percentage above 80%. It has lost to these teams on average but only by 0.6 points. Gotta take the points here.

5* Wiseguy CIT Game of the Year on Bradley +11
Bottom Line: I don't trust Northern Iowa laying this many points against a team that is very familiar with them. The Panthers won both meetings during the regular season but have defeated the Braves by more than 11 points just once in the last 6 meetings. Northern Iowa is only 14-25 ATS as a double-digit favorite under coach Ben Jacobson. The Braves are 14-5 ATS under Geno Ford when matched up against marginal winning teams (Win Pct. 51% to 60%). Also, road underdogs of 10 or more points that are out for revenge for a home loss versus an opponent, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team, are 116-58 ATS the last 5 seasons. Pound Bradley.

5* Wiseguy NIT Game of the Year on So. Miss -8
Bottom Line: I played against So. Miss in its first round NIT game as I expected it wouldn't be over its double-overtime loss to Memphis in the C-USA championship. It should be over not making the Big Dance by now, and it should be very motivated here because it was defeated by double digits at Louisiana Tech back in December. While So. Miss has been susceptible on the road, it has been nearly unstoppable at home where it is 13-1. 10 of its last 12 home wins have come by 8 points or more. Tech wasn't the same team on the road late in the season, getting destroyed at Denver and New Mexico State. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Pound the Golden Eagles.

5* Wiseguy Sunday NCAA Tournament *BRACKET BUSTER* on Illinois +8
Bottom Line: Illinois has a serious shot to upset Miami, which is the Final Four pick of many in the East region. The Canes were hitting on all cylinders in their opener but now find themselves up against a much more talented opponent - one with double-digit wins over Butler, Gonzaga and Ohio State and a win over Indiana. The value clearly lies in our favor here when you consider that playing against favorites that have covered the spread in at least 6 of their last 8, a top-level team (>= 80%) playing a good team (60% to 80%), are 103-62 ATS the last 5 seasons. Illinois should take this one right down to the wire with a great chance of pulling off the upset.

4* Major Situational *BLOOD BATH* on Ole Miss -4
Bottom Line: Ole Miss is playing with a ton of confidence and swagger after winning the SEC tourney. I expect no letdown following its upset of Wisconsin as it is 9-1 ATS the last 2 seasons off an upset win and has won by an average of 6.9 points in these contests. Tough spot for LaSalle also as this will be its 3rd game in 5 days.

4* Major Sunday NCAA Tournament *BLOWOUT* on San Diego State -7
Bottom Line: So much talk about Florida Gulf Coast's win over Georgetown and no one's talking about the beating San Diego State put on Oklahoma. The Eagles also snuck up on Miami earlier this season, but they were defeated by 10 points or more in their other 4 non-conference games versus quality competition, which tells me Friday's win was an aberration. San Diego State will be lacking no confidence after its opening win. It seems to feed on performances like that, as evidenced by its 57-25 ATS all-time record under coach Fisher after a win by 15 points or more. It has rolled in these spots by an average of 8.6 points.

4* Major South Region *SUREFIRE* on Minnesota +8
Bottom Line: Florida is an outstanding defensive team, but Minnesota has risen to the occasion time and time again versus such foes. The Golden Gophers are 13-5 ATS all-time under coach Smith when matched up against teams that allow 57 points per game or less. The Gophers have defeated these teams by 2.2 points on average.

4* Major Powerhouse *POWER PLAY* on Kansas -6
Bottom Line: UNC does a good job of sharing the basketball, but Kansas has easily defeated such teams. The Jayhawks are 6-0 ATS the last 2 seasons when playing outside Lawrence versus good passing teams that average 16 assists or more per game. They have won by an average of 12.7 points in these contests. More bad news for the Tar Heels. Kansas is 8-0 ATS the last 3 seasons at least 15 games in versus teams that average 16 assists or more per game. It has won by an average of 11.9 points in these games.

5* Wiseguy NCAA Tournament *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Gonzaga -6
Bottom Line: After shaking off the rust Thursday, I expect Gonzaga to roll against a less experienced and less talented Wichita State team. The Bulldogs don't lose often (only twice season), but they treat close games like losses in terms of the way they respond. The Zags are on a 31-15 ATS run in games played outside the Kennel after a win by 6 points or less. They are also 10-2 ATS on the season following a game that they did not cover the number in. They have won by an average of 18.3 points in this situation. You might also like to know that the Shockers are on a 4-18 ATS slide when listed as a pk or laying 6 points or fewer on a neutral floor.

4* Major *BLOOD BATH* on Marquette -2
Bottom Line: Butler defeated Marquette by a point on a neutral floor earlier this season but needed a last second 3-point make to get it done. I felt Marquette was the better team that day as it shot 49% from the field and held Butler to 44.3%. It also outrebounded the Bulldogs. The Eagles walk away with a 2-point win if that 3 doesn't go in so it comes as no surprise that they are a 2-point favorite here. They walk away with an even bigger with if they don't have 7 more turnovers than Butler. Marquette had 14 giveaways in that game, which isn't bad, but Butler only forces 11 a game. I expect the Eagles to do a little bit better job of taking care of the ball this time around. They'll earn the cover as a result.

4* Major Bracket Buster on Oregon +4
Bottom Line: Oregon, an underrated #12 seed, has what it takes to send Saint Louis, a dark horse pick of many to make the Final Four, home early. The Billikens have been strong defensively, holding their last 5 opponents below the 60-point mark. However, they haven't been as sharp offensively, failing to score more than 67 points in their last 3 games. This is important because Saint Louis is 0-6 ATS this season after 3 consecutive games of both it and its opponents scoring 70 points or less. The Billikens will have a tough time holding down an Oregon squad that averages 71.6 ppg. The Ducks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games and 17-6-1 ATS in their last 24 games following an ATS win.

4* Major Blowout on Arizona -10
Bottom Line: Expect a letdown from Harvard following Thursday's huge upset win over New Mexico. The Crimson rely on shooting a high percentage from 3-point range, which they did in their round of 64 win, but don't count on them knocking them down against Arizona like they did on the Lobos. The Wildcats are 14-4 ATS lifetime under Sean Miller in road/neutral venues versus good 3-point shooting teams that make 37% or more of their attempts. Plus, Miller knows a thing or two about winning in the Big Dance. His teams are 12-2 ATS lifetime in the NCAA tournament. Lay the points as Zona rolls.

4* Major Early Surefire on Michigan -2.5
Bottom Line: VCU will have to turn Michigan over a bunch to win this game and I don't see it happening with Big Ten Baller of the Year Trey Burke doing the bulk of the handling. VCU relies on points-of-turnovers for offense but Michigan only give it away 9 times a game. Fading the Rams versus team that average 12 turnovers or less per game has produced a perfect 6-0 ATS record this season.

4* Major NCAA Tournament Bailout on Minnesota -2.5
Bottom Line: Minnesota struggled late in the Big Ten season while playing a road-heavy schedule against teams that know it well. However, now's the perfect time to get behind the Gophers as they start the postseason with a clean slate. Minnesota is big, physical and athletic with more experience than UCLA. Plus, the Bruins will be without one of their top performers as Jordan Adams has been lost for the season with a broken foot. UCLA played one game without him, the Pac-12 tournament title game, and it lost it by 9 points. Minnesota enters off a dismal 49-point effort against Illinois but is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games after scoring less than 50 points in its previous game. The Bruins are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. Also, taking teams that have gone under the total by 48 or more points in their last seven games, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1 conferences, has produced a 17-3 ATS result the last 3 seasons.

4* Major NCAA Tournament *BLOOD BATH* on Villanova +4
Bottom Line: Nova has been undervalued all season and it enters the tournament with a 20-10 ATS record as a result. The Wildcats have wins over Georgetown, Marquette, Syracuse and Louisville so they clearly have what it takes to get the Tar Heels. Nova enters off a SU and ATS defeat but is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games following a SU loss and 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games following an ATS loss. The last time it lost, it responded with a double-digit win over Georgetown.

5* Wiseguy NCAA Tournament *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Iona +14.5
Bottom Line: The Iona Gaels enter the NCAA tournament flying under the radar and are showing nice value here as a result. They are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall and 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games versus a team with a winning record. People that don't follow the smaller conferences don't realize how explosive Iona is. The Gaels average 80.7 ppg. They put up 94 on Wake Forest, a team that beat Miami, and dropped 81 on Georgia, who held Indiana, UCLA and Florida to 66 points or fewer. Iona is great at making you play faster than you want and Ohio State is clearly not an uptempo team as it has only one consistent scorer. Iona's tempo causes enough problems for Ohio State that the Gaels pick up the cover.

4* Major NCAA Tournament Power Play on Cincinnati +3.5
Bottom Line: Fading Creighton in NCAA tournament play has been a profitable venture. Throwing out a push, the Blue Jays are on a 0-5 ATS slide in the Big Dance. The Bearcats are a rock solid 5-1 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games and 12-2 ATS the last 3 seasons versus non-conference opponents in road or neutral court venues. Bearcats are showing great value catching points in a game they can clearly win outright.

5* Wiseguy NCAA Tournament Afternoon Delight on Pacific +12.5
Bottom Line: I really like Pacific catching double digits here considering the way it has performed against quality competition. Throwing out a push, the Tigers are on a 5-0 ATS run versus teams that have a winning record. Also, taking double-digit dogs after 2 straight games where both it and its opponent scored 65 points or less against a team that has scored 75 points or more in 2 straight games has produced a 55-25 ATS record the last 5 seasons. Pound Pacific.

4* Major on Cal +3
Bottom Line: Cal dropped an earlier meeting with UNLV by 1 point on a last second putback. There are 2 things to note about that game. Cal gave up 13 offensive rebounds and missed 13 free throws. The Golden Bears typically give up just 10 offensive boards and they average 72.5% from the foul line. I expect Cal to do a better job of cleaning up the glass and knocking down their freebies in the rematch. The Runnin' Rebels have been constantly overvalued the last couple seasons as evidenced by the fact they are 22-33 ATS in their last 55 games as a favorite.

4* Major on Michigan -11
Bottom Line: A lot of people are down on Michigan, but I'm not drinking the Kool-Aid. The Wolverines are extremely talented and should enter the Dance with a chip on their shoulder after a disappointing Big Ten season and after an early exit in last year's tourney. Michigan is a strong 19-9 ATS the last 3 seasons when it enters a game off 1 or more consecutive losses. Lay the points with the Wolverines in this bounce-back spot.

4* Major on Oregon +3
Bottom Line: Look for Oregon to parlay the momentum of a Pac-12 tournament title into a round of 64 win. Oklahoma State has struggled against elite competition this season. The Cowboys are only 3-10 ATS on the season versus very good teams that outscore their opponents by 8+ points/game.

4* Major on Davidson +3.5
Bottom Line: The books are clearly begging for the public to take #3 seed Marquette here, but I won't fall for the trap. Davidson has won 17 straight and returns all 5 starters from a team that took Louisville down to the wire in last year's NCAA tournament. The Wildcats have covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 NCAA tournament games, and I expect this trend to continue as they pull off the shocker against Marquette.

5* Wiseguy NCAA Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on New Mexico State +9
Bottom Line: The public has fallen in love with Saint Louis and books are looking to cash in big time by elevating the line. The Billikens are clearly overvalued at this number, and I'm ready to take full advantage. Plays against favorites that have won 80% or more of their games and have covered the spread in 6 or 7 of their last 8 games that are up against a team that has won 60% to 80% of its games are 65-31 ATS the last 3 seasons. This system is a perfect example of the way oddsmakers like to jack up the line on hot teams. The Billikens are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 versus the WAC and New Mexico State has proven itself time and time again late in the season against good teams. The Aggies are on a 22-9 ATS run in the month of March. They are also 12-4 ATS lifetime under coach Menzies versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game - after 15+ games. Take the points as New Mexico State gives Saint Louis a run for the money.

4* Major on Bucknell +4
Bottom Line: Butler has impressive wins over Indiana and Gonzaga on its resume but hasn't looked like the team that defeated those squads lately. Bucknell is the real deal behind 6'11'' forward Mike Muscala. Plays against favorites from a second-tier division 1 conference that are coming off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference foe and are up against a team from a weak conference are 13-0 ATS the last 3 seasons.

4* Major on Charleston Southern +13
Bottom Line: Plays against favorites from a second-tier division 1 conference that are up against a team from a weak conference and are off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival are a perfect 12-0 ATS the last 3 seasons. Can't imagine Southern Miss will be jacked up for this game after such a heartbreaking loss to Memphis in the C-USA final.

4* Major on Houston +3
Bottom Line: Texas can't be trusted on the road where it is just 2-9 this season, especially against a Houston squad that is 13-4 at home. The Cougars are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400 and 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a loss.

4* Major on Mercer +8.5
Bottom Line: Mercer is 12-2 ATS when catching points under coach Hoffman. I'm not hesitating to ride this trend tonight against a Tennessee team that has to be felling disappointed after missing out on the Big Dance.

4* Major on North Dakota +16.5
Bottom Line: Northern Iowa won the season's first meeting by 25 but North Dakota was minus its best player in that game. With Huff back and the Sioux out for revenge, I'm expecting a much closer contest. The Panthers are a soft 21-37 ATS as a double-digit favorite since 1997.

5* Wiseguy CBB *UNDERDOG SHOCKER* on Bryant +5
Bottom Line: I'm putting a Richmond team that is just 3-10 this season on the road on upset alert against a Bryant squad that is 11-4 at home. The Spiders are 4-12-2 ATS in their last 18 road games versus a team with a winning home record. Also, teams headed up by coach Oshea are 13-1 ATS lifetime as a home underdog of 6 points or less or pick. His teams have won these contests by an average of 5.5 points.

5* Wiseguy NCAA Tournament *PUNISHER* on Middle Tennessee State +3
Bottom Line: Dayton is a long way from home for Saint Mary's, which has struggled away from its home court versus non-conference opponents this season. It has especially struggled over the years versus quality defensive teams like Middle Tennessee. The Blue Raiders rank 15th in the country in scoring defense, allowing only 57.8 ppg. That number is significant because the Gaels are only 15-30 ATS all-time under coach Bennett when playing away from home versus good defensive teams that hold the opposition to 64.0 points or less. Saint Mary's is also on a 10-23 ATS slide away from home versus teams that outscore their opponents by 12+ points/game. Middle Tennessee hasn't gotten much love from analysts but will earn a little respect tonight.

4* Major on Denver -6.5
Bottom Line: This is not the time of year to go against Denver at home, even with a winning team. That's because the Pioneers are 8-1 ATS the last 3 seasons in home games that occur at least 15 games into the season versus teams that have a winning record. Denver has won these games by an average of 20.3 points.

4* Major on Robert Morris +4.5
Bottom Line: Kentucky isn't the same team without Nerlens Noel and Robert Morris is a better team than most realize. It played Arkansas to a 5-point game on the road this season. Consider that Kentucky lost at Arkansas by 13. The Wildcats are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games. They are also 1-7 ATS this season when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%).

4* Major Conference Tourney Play of the Day on VCU +3.5
Bottom Line: This is a highly-motivated spot for VCU. The Rams finished a game shy of the Billikens in the regular-season standings with a 76-62 loss at Saint Louis being one of the defeats that cost them a share of the title. I expect a much different result on a neutral floor. Underdogs that have failed to cover the spread in 3 of their last 4 games that are 43-15 ATS since 1997 when matched up against a team that has covered in 12 or more of its last 15 games. This system, which shows clearly that the value lies with VCU, is 3-1 ATS this season and 16-4 ATS the last 5 seasons. Bet the Rams.

5* Wiseguy MAC Tournament Game of the Year on Ohio -1.5
Bottom Line: Ohio is far too experienced and far too good to drop a third straight to Akron this season. The Bobcats blew a double-digit lead and lost in OT in the last meeting so they'll be hungry to say the least. Also, the Zips won't have Alex Abreu this time around. He played a pivotal role in both of the wins against Ohio so he will be greatly missed. The Bobcats are an awesome 33-12 ATS when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent - since 1997 and have won these games by an average of 4.4 points.

4* Major Big 12 Championship *BLOOD BATH* on Kansas State +4.5
Bottom Line: The Wildcats were embarrassed 83-62 in Lawrence after playing the Jayhawks to a 4-point game in the first meeting. That loss will have the Wildcats extremely motivated this evening. Bruce Weber is an outstanding coach. We're talking about a guy that has been the national coach of the year and the coach of the year in all 3 leagues he's coached in. That's why it should come as no surprise that his teams are an outstanding 33-17 ATS when looking for revenge against a team that dropped 75 points or more on his squad. His teams have actually bounced back to win by 4.0 points on average in these spots. I expect Weber to make the necessary adjustments and for a great effort from the players to lead to a K-State cover.

4* Major Big Ten Tourney BEST BET on Michigan State +2
Bottom Line: The Spartans got a wake-up call, nearly losing to Iowa, and I expect them to respond here. They'll be motivated as they dropped the most recent meeting. Betting they'll drop another one isn't wise considering they are on a 29-13 ATS run when out for revenge for a season-season defeat. They have won in this situation by an average of 7.2 points. I also like the fact Michigan State is 11-3 ATS under Izzo as a neutral court underdog of 3 points or less or pick.

5* Wiseguy on Arizona -4
Bottom Line: Arizona will be lacking no motivation here after losing both regular-season meetings with UCLA. It will be hard for UCLA to match the intensity of the revenge-minded Wildcats after yesterday's emotionally and physically draining win. The Bruins used a lot of energy in battling back from a 15-point second-half deficit against Arizona State. UCLA managed to earn a half-point cover against the Sun Devils, but it is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games following an ATS win.

4* Major on Iowa State +6
Bottom Line: This is the matchup Iowa State wanted after it believed it was screwed out of a victory at home against Kansas by the officials. The Cyclones took the Jayhawks to OT in both regular-season contests, and I like their chances of challenging them again. Iowa State is a ridiculous 40-18-2 ATS in its last 60 versus the Big 12. It is also 15-5 ATS the last 2 seasons when out for revenge for a loss to an opponent.

4* Major on Syracuse +2
Bottom Line: The third time's a charm for Syracuse as it avenges two prior losses to Georgetown this season. The Orange are often at their most dangerous in the Big East tournament, and they are 22-9 ATS as a neutral court underdog of 6 points or less or pick under coach Boeheim. They are also 20-6 ATS when playing away from home following an upset win over a conference rival under their current coach. Cuse wants this one more because of the double-revenge factor.

4* Major on Tulsa +11.5
Bottom Line: Tulsa has the advantage of playing this one right at home. Plus, Memphis is a soft 23-38 ATS under coach Pastner following a win by 10 points or more. It has won by only 7.8 points on average in these spots. The Tigers have been consistently overvalued following double-digit wins, and that's the case here. The Golden Hurricane took it on the chin at Memphis and will be extremely motivated here as a result.

5* Wiseguy Pac-12 Game of the Year on Oregon -3.5
Bottom Line: Oregon gave away the Pac-12 title with disappointing performances against Colorado and Utah. They've had 4 days to let those losses fuel their fire, and I fully expect them to respond tonight against a team they defeated twice during the regular season by 5 and 13 points. Washington managed to sneak past rival Washington State last night, but the Huskies have not been good away from home. They've dropped 5 of their last 7 off campus. Oregon has been more reliable away from Eugene where it has won 5 of its last 9 with wins at Washington and UCLA during this stretch. Lay the small number with the Ducks, who should be all over the court in this one.

4* Major ACC *BLOOD BATH* on Clemson +2.5
Bottom Line: Clemson lost the season's first two meetings with FSU by narrow margins and will be out for some revenge as a result. I'm not ready to trust this inexperienced FSU squad outside Tallahassee where they have dropped each of their last 4 and 6 of their last 7. The Tigers have more experience on the floor and will want this one just a little more because of the two prior losses.

4* Major Big 10 *BLOOD BATH* on Northwestern +10
Bottom Line: Iowa is being overvalued here as expected against a team it defeated by double-digits twice during the regular season. Keep in mind that Iowa was coming off a close loss prior to both wins over the Wildcats. This time it enters riding high following a big revenge win over Nebraska on senior day and is 22-39 ATS when playing away from home off a home win by 10 points or more since 1997. Iowa needs this one to keep its NCAA tourney hopes alive, but Northwestern will be every bit as motivated because of how badly it was beaten by Iowa during the season. Northwestern is on an 18-6 ATS run in road/neutral floor games after having lost 8 or more of their last 10 games.

4* Major on Auburn +5.5
Bottom Line: The value lies with Auburn, which is on a 53-34 ATS run following 2 straight losses against conference rivals. It is also a rock solid 34-23 ATS as an underdog under coach Barbee. Meanwhile, teams headed up by coach Kennedy are a poor 8-20 ATS in all neutral court lined games. A&M isn't the same team away from home, which leaves it susceptible here.

4* Major on Grambling +17.5
Bottom Line: Grambling is 0-27 on the season with losses of 25 and 27 to Alabama A&M. It will be extremely motivated as a result as it looks to avoid the goose egg for the season. I don't believe this line accounts for the level of motivation or the familiarity of the opponent. Having already seen A&M twice is to Grambling's benefit while it's not to A&Ms because the first 2 results will make it easy to look past the Tigers. The Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 lined games while the Bulldogs are 1-12 ATS in their last 13 lined games. The Bulldogs are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 lined games following a loss, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 lined games versus a team with a losing record, 0-6 ATS in their last 6 lined games versus the SWAC and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 lined neutral site games.

4* Major on St. John's +4.5
Bottom Line: Villanova is 0-8 ATS when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last 3 seasons. It has lost to these teams by an average of 2.4 points. St. John's is 6-0 ATS after playing 3 consecutive games as an underdog this season. It has won by an average of 7.8 points in these contests. The first trend exposes Nova's tendency to sleep on mediocre teams. The second trend shows the compounded value of taking teams that consistently find themselves in the underdog role.

5* Wiseguy CBB *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Seattle -4
Bottom Line: Seattle lost the first 2 meetings by a total of 5 points and will be extremely motivated here as a result. They posted a higher shooting percentage in both meetings but didn't get to the foul line and didn't do a good job of taking care of the basketball. Seattle has really cut down on its turnovers over its last 8 games, and I expect it to make more of an effort to take the ball to the basket. Lay the small number with the more talented team as it has its revenge.

4* Major on Nevada +3
Bottom Line: The struggling Cowboys can't be trusted laying points here. They are 0-8 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 6 points or less or pick since 1997 and have lost these games by an average of 6.7 points.

5* Wiseguy *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on St. Mary's +6
Bottom Line: Neutral court dogs that have won 3 in a row against conference foes and are out for revenge for a defeat of 10 points or more to an opponent are 28-8 ATS the last 3 seasons. Also, Gonzaga is just 1-8 ATS the last 3 seasons in games played away from home following 2 straight victories of 15 points or more.

4* Major on Northern Illinois +8.5
Bottom Line: Playing on underdogs that are off a home loss of 10 points or more and are out for revenge for 2 consecutive losses to an opponent that held them to fewer than 60 points has produced a 50-20 ATS record since 1997.

4* Major on Maryland Eastern Shore +11.5
Bottom Line: Playing on neutral floor teams that are coming off a road loss where they were held to fewer than 60 points and are looking for revenge for a loss to an opponent that held them to fewer than 60 points are 28-14 ATS the last 5 seasons.

4* Major System Play of the Week on UMKC +18
Bottom Line: UMKC has been held to just 44 and 34 points, respectively, in the first two meetings but underdogs that are out for revenge for 2 straight losses to an opponent that held them below the 60-point mark, as long as that opponent checks in off a blowout win of 20 points or more over a conference foe, are 41-15 ATS the last 5 seasons. Plus, North Dakota State is on a 4-16 ATS slide following a win of 10 points or more over a conference rival.

5* Wiseguy Summit League Game of the Year on Oakland -3
Bottom Line: This is a huge revenge spot for Oakland, which has lost the season's first two meetings after winning the previous 10 by 10.0 points on average. The Golden Grizzlies are a rock solid 10-2 ATS the last 3 seasons in games when the line is +3 to -3. They are on a 10-1 ATS run as a neutral court favorite or pick and a 9-1 ATS run in conference tournament contests. Pound Oakland.

4* Major Big Ten BEST BET on Michigan pk
Bottom Line: Out for revenge for a loss at Indiana and out for a share of the Big Ten title, I fully expect Michigan to take care of business at home where it is a perfect 17-0 this season. The Hoosiers have been strong on the road, but the Wolverines are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games versus teams with a road winning percentage greater than .600.

4* Major on Baylor +3.5
Bottom Line: Baylor is a better team than it has shown lately, and I expect it to respond here. A win gets the Bears back in the Big Dance conversation so they will be hungry to say the least. The road has been rough for Kansas which hasn't won any of its last four road games in regulation.

4* Major on Air Force +3.5
Bottom Line: I like Air Force catching points at home as it is 7-0 ATS in home games against conference opponents this season. New Mexico's Alex Kirk and Kendall Williams are expected to get reduced minutes so that also swings things in our favor.

4* Major on East Carolina -6.5
Bottom Line: Huge letdown spot for Marshall following a big win over So. Miss. Marshall is an awful 2-9 ATS in road games this season. It is also 0-10 ATS off a home win this season and 0-12 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins this season.

4* Major on TCU +13
Bottom Line: TCU is offensively challenged but Oklahoma is on a 0-9 ATS slide in road games that occur 15+ games into the season versus poor offensive teams that average 64 points or less per game. The Sooners don't force many turnovers, which also is to our benefit. They are 0-10 ATS in road games the last 3 seasons after 3 straight games of forcing 14 turnovers or fewer.

4* Major on Cincinnati -12.5
Bottom Line: USF has won its last two but those were at home. It has lost its last 8 on the road by an average of 16 points.

5* Wiseguy Big 12 Game of the Month on Texas Tech +6.5
Bottom Line: Texas is a lousy 1-9 on the road this season, which tells me it is being severely overvalued here. The Longhorns have been consistently overvalued in this series and are just 2-6 ATS in the last 8 meetings as a result. Texas Tech lost by only 4 points in last season's home meeting, and I expect it to take the Horns right down to the wire again on senior day.

4* Major on George Washington +1
Bottom Line: The home team gets the call here as it has won each of the past five matchups by an average of 12.0 points. The home side has also won 12 of the last 14. GW has won 8 of its last 11 at home versus the Flyers.

4* Major on DePaul +12
Bottom Line: DePaul hasn't forgotten about the 93-55 beating it received at Pitt. That loss is all the motivation the Blue Demons need here. DePaul beat Pitt by 3 at home last season, and it is on a 9-2 ATS run at home when up against good teams that carry a winning percentage of 60% to 80%.

4* Major on Oklahoma State -5.5
Bottom Line: Based on the line oddsmakers are begging for action on K-State, but I won't bite. The Cowboys have won 7 of their last 8 at home in the series, and they are on an impressive 30-17 ATS run as a home favorite or pick. They have won these games by 11.7 points on average.

4* Major on West Virginia +3.5
Bottom Line: This is a letdown spot for Iowa State following a big win over Oklahoma State on senior night. It's a bounce-back spot for West Virginia, which will be out to end a 5-game skid. The Mountaineers were handled at Oklahoma this week, but teams headed by Huggins are on a 31-15 ATS run in games following a loss of 10 points or more.

5* Wiseguy SEC Game of the Month on Kentucky +6.5
Bottom Line: Winning at Kentucky won't be easy for Florida. The Wildcats have won 7 straight on their home floor overall and 5 in a row at home in the series. The Gators are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games versus teams that have a winning record. Plus, Kentucky is on a 37-19 ATS run when out for revenge for a road defeat to a foe.

5* Wiseguy MVC Tourney *PUNISHER* on Indiana State +2.5
Bottom Line: Indiana State saw its 4-game win streak in the series come to an end with an embarrassing 16-point loss at Evansville last game. That loss is all the motivated the Sycamores will need here. They are an awesome 8-1 ATS the last 2 seasons when out for revenge for a double-digit loss to an opponent. They have won these games by an average of 2.7 points.

5* Wiseguy WCC Tourney GAME OF THE YEAR on Pepperdine +3
Bottom Line: Pepperdine lost at San Diego by 7 points in its last game but is on an impressive 19-8 ATS run in games following a road loss. I expect this trend to continue as the Waves have been the better team in road/neutral court battles this season. They are 6-10 in road/neutral court games while the Toreros are just 4-11. The Waves are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games played away from home while San Diego is 0-2 ATS in its last 2 and 2-4 ATS in its last 6 played away from home. Pound Pepperdine.

4* Major WAC *BLOOD BATH* on New Mexico State -2
Bottom Line: New Mexico State lost at Denver last time out but covered the number in that contest. That sets up a favorable scenario for us here as the Aggies are 6-0 ATS under coach Menzies following a cover in a game they lost. They have won by an average of 11.4 points in this spot.

4* Major Big Sky Blowout on Northern Colorado -8.5
Bottom Line: This is a huge letdown spot for Southern Utah, which left it all out on the floor against Montana but had its heart broken in OT. It will be tough to bounce back from that one, especially against a team that will be out for revenge for a 1-point loss in the first meeting. Northern Colorado is 7-0 ATS under coach Hill 15+ games into the schedule when matched up against poor defensive teams that force 12 turnovers or less per game. It has won by an average of 10.0 points in this spot.

4* Major ACC *BLOOD BATH* (ESPN2) on Florida State +4.5
Bottom Line: FSU has taken beatdowns seriously since Hamilton took over as head man. They are 11-3 ATS under his watch when out for revenge for a blowout loss of 20 points or more to an opponent. They have lost by only .4 points on average in this situation so they are showing nice value here.

5* Wiseguy MWC Game of the Month on Nevada +9
Bottom Line: New Mexico has nothing left to play for as it has already clinched the league title. Nevada, meanwhile, will treat a date with the MWC champ as their national title game. The Wolf Pack are on a 15-5 ATS run in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses. They are also on a 38-18 ATS run when looking for revenge for a loss to an opponent that scored 75 points or more on them. Pound Nevada.

4* Major Pac-12 Best Bet on Washington State +3.5
Bottom Line: The books are begging for the public to lay the points with UCLA, but the numbers suggest we should do otherwise. UCLA is only 8-15 ATS as a favorite this season, including 2-7 ATS in its last 9 in the role. I'm not getting caught in this bookmaker trap. Take the Cougars.

4* Major Big 10 Best Bet on Nebraska +7.5
Bottom Line: Look for Minnesota's struggles on the road to continue here. The Gophers are 0-6 in their last 6 on the road, losing these by an average of 12.2 points.

4* Major Big 12 Best Bet on Iowa State -3
Bottom Line: Iowa State is 15-1 at home and should be 16-0 had officials not blew a charge call down the stretch against Kansas. The Cyclones are tough as nails at Hilton, where the magic has returned under Hoiberg. The Cowboys are a dismal 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600.

4* Major Big East Best Bet on Villanova -1
Bottom Line: Nova has defeated Marquette, Syracuse and Louisville at home so I have no doubt it can get the Hoyas too. The Wildcats are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600.

4* Major Underdog Shocker on UTEP +3
Bottom Line: UTEP is 6-0 ATS all-time under coach Floyd when it checks in off 5 straight games of committing 14 turnovers or less. It is also 7-0 ATS under Floyd at home and 15+ games into the schedule versus good rebounding teams that outrebound opponents by 4.0 or more per game. UTEP is 8-0 ATS the last 2 seasons versus teams top-level teams that have won 80% or more of their games. It has defeated these teams by an average of .8 points. Look for the Miners to pull off the shocker.

4* Major Horizon League Tourney BEST BET on Wisconsin-Milwaukee +14
Bottom Line: Wisconsin-Milwaukee is a perfect 8-0 ATS the last 2 seasons when out for revenge for a double-digit road loss to an opponent. It has actually won by an average of 1.9 points in this situation.

4* Major ACC *BLOOD BATH* on Clemson -4.5
Bottom Line: The Tigers are 5-0 in their 5 home games in the series and have won these by 15.2 points on average. Look for this trend to continue.

5* Wiseguy Conference USA Game of the Year on Marshall +6.5
Bottom Line: I know So. Miss rolled in the first meeting but that was at home. The Golden Eagles aren't nearly the same team on the road where they are on a 0-5-1 ATS slide and haven't won by more than 4 points during this stretch. The Golden Eagles are also 1-6-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings in the series and have lost 4 of their last 5 at Marshall. Pound the Thundering Herd.

4* Major on Southern Utah +2.5
Bottom Line: The Thunderbirds are showing some nice value in the home underdog role considering they are 9-4 at home this season. They are 5-2 in their last 7 home games with both of the losses coming by a single point. In terms of the line, they are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 at home. I smell an upset on senior night.