Sports Picks & Predictions

4* Major Outback Bowl *PUNISHER* on Iowa +8
Bottom Line: LSU will be forced to lean on its running game with Mettenberger out, and that isn't a favorable situation for the Tigers as they face an Iowa defense that ranks 7th in the country in total defense and 17th against the run. Iowa is 28-9 ATS under coach Ferentz versus good running attacks that average 200.0 rushing yards per game or more. It has won these games by 4.1 points on average. Look for the Iowa defense to keep the Hawkeyes in this game right down to the wire.

5* Wiseguy Non-BCS Bowl Game of the Year on Wisconsin -115
Bottom Line: This line smells fishy with Wisconsin being favored against a higher ranked SEC team, especially when that team is coming off a big win over Clemson and Wiscy is off a loss to Penn State. Clearly, oddsmakers believe in Wisconsin's stingy defense, especially since it has had a month to prepare. The Badgers finished the regular-season ranked 5th in scoring defense (14.8 ppg) and 6th in total defense (294.4 ypg). Wiscy is 8-1 ATS versus teams that average 31 or more points/game over the last 2 seasons and 6-0 ATS versus teams that average 450 yards/game or more over the last 2 seasons. Look for Wiscy to come out on top behind a strong running attack and a hard-nosed defense.

4* Major Gator Bowl *SUREFIRE* on Nebraska +9
Bottom Line: The Bulldogs are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall, 3-7 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games, 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a win, 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 versus a team with a winning record and 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game. The Cornhuskers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss. They are also 13-5 ATS outside Lincoln, Nebraska under Pelini when coming off two ATS defeats in their last 3 games. The Huskers were tied 31-31 with Georgia late in last season's Capital One Bowl matchup before letting the game get away. Motivated to avenge that loss, I expect the Huskers to keep this one close.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* Bailout on Bucks +6.5
Bottom Line: The Lakers are 1-9 ATS off an upset loss as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons, losing by an average of 5.9 points in this spot. The Bucks are 10-3-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings and 6-2-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings in Los Angeles. The underdog is 14-4-1 ATS in the last 19 meetings. Pound the Bucks.

4* Major Chick-fil-A Bowl Bailout on Duke +13
Bottom Line: Playing in this game is a major disappointment for a Texas A&M team that entered the season with national title hopes. Duke, on the other hand, has had its best season in a long time, and it will be looking to punctuate it. A&M is on a 6-21 ATS slide when playing away from home with a week of rest or more. The Aggies are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 bowl games, 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall, 2-9 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 versus a team with a winning record. The Blue Devils are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 versus a team with a winning record and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games.

5* Wiseguy Sun Bowl *BEST BET* on Virginia Tech +7.5
Bottom Line: The Hokies are a reliable 43-31 ATS when matched up against a team with a win percentage greater than 75% under coach Beamer. They are also 45-32 ATS versus teams that outscore opponents by 10.0 ppg or more under Beamer. Virginia Tech has been to 21 consecutive bowls, and they have been defeated by more than 7 points just one time in their last 11 bowl appearances. Pound the Hokies.

4* Major Holiday Bowl Bailout on Texas Tech +14.5
Bottom Line: The Sun Devils are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a double-digit loss at home, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 bowl games. The Red Raiders are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games and 27-11-3 ATS in their last 41 games after being held to less than 20 points in their previous game. Arizona State will have a tough time getting up for this game knowing they blew an opportunity to be Rose Bowl-bound. Texas Tech finished the season poorly so it has every incentive to put forth a good showing here. I'm not concerned about Baker Mayfield transferring as Davis Webb's numbers were better, and he's gotten the large majority of the reps during bowl prep.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Nuggets +2.5
Bottom Line: Expect a letdown from the Heat following an emotional win in Portland. Also, expect to see a motivated Denver squad as it looks to bring a six-game skid to an end. The Nuggets are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600, and the underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Pound Denver.

4* Major NBA *SUREFIRE* on Pelicans +3
Bottom Line: The Trail Blazers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games overall while the Pelicans are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games overall. The Blazers have had a terrible time with New Orleans and are 0-5 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Portland just lost a tough one to Miami and plays the Thunder tomorrow so this could be a flat spot for the Blazers.

4* Major NBA *SUREFIRE* on Pistons -138
Bottom Line: The Pistons were hammered at Washington last game, but I expect them to have their revenge at home where they are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Also, the favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.

5* Wiseguy Pre-New Year's Bowl Game of the Year on Ole Miss -3
Bottom Line: Georgia Tech is 0-6 ATS this season when playing against a team with a winning record this season, losing these contest by an average of 10.0 points. Ole Miss is 7-0 ATS under coach Freeze when entering a contest with losses in two of its last three games, winning these contests by 11.2 points on average. The Rebels are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 bowl games and 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games. Ole Miss has the speed to slow down Georgia Tech's triple-option attack, and it will be extremely prepared for it as defensive coordinator Dave Wommack served in the same role for two seasons under Paul Johnson at Georgia Tech. Pound Ole Miss.

5* Wiseguy NFC East Game of the Year on Cowboys +7
Bottom Line: This line is a gross overreaction to Tony Romo being out. Frankly, I don't miss Romo at all here as he was 0-3 in regular-season finales with the division title at stake. Kyle Orton has had his share of success in the NFL, and he has an excellent opportunity to succeed here against a Philadelphia defense that ranks 30th in the league against the pass. Playing against road favorites that average 27 or more ppg has resulted in a 37-15 ATS record since 1983 if they led in their previous game by 21 or more points at the half. Dallas has had Philly's number, winning each of the last three meetings. Pound the Cowboys.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Cavaliers +6.5
Bottom Line: The Cavaliers have been very tough at home where they have won 8 of 14, including a win over the Clippers. They also recently took Portland down to the wire, losing by 3 in a game that appeared headed for OT before Damian Lillard drained a 3-pointer with 0.4 seconds remaining. The Cavs are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games versus a winning team, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a cover and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 versus the West. The Warriors are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a cover and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 versus the NBA Central. The Cavs are 6-1 ATS as a home underdog this season. Pound Cleveland.

4* Major AFC West *DIVISIONAL DOMINATOR* on Raiders +13
Bottom Line: December home underdogs or pickems are 94-53 ATS since 1983 provided they enter off 2 or more consecutive ATS losses. Playing against any team after a win by 14 or more points that is up against an opponent off 2 straight losses by 10 or more points has resulted in a 33-12 ATS record the last 10 seasons.

4* Major AFC North *DIVISIONAL DOMINATOR* on Ravens +6.5
Bottom Line: Don't count Baltimore out following last week's ugly loss to New England. The Ravens are 4-0 under coach John Harbaugh following a defeat of 20 points or more. The Ravens are also 7-0 ATS under their current coach after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half. They have won these 7 contests by an average of 19.4 points. Lastly, the Ravens are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 road games versus a team with a winning home record.

5* Wiseguy Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl *BEST BET* on Michigan +6
Bottom Line: Michigan underachieved this season given the huge amount of talent it possesses. Even if QB Devin Gardner doesn't go, the Wolverines have more than enough talent remaining to take down the Wildcats. Kansas State hasn't been a good investment this time of year. It is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 bowl games. So much of K-State success depends on winning the turnover battle. In fact, the Wildcats were 1-5 when forcing just 1 turnover this season and 6-0 when forcing 2 or more. They'll have a hard time getting Michigan to cough it up. The Wolverines have had 1 turnover or fewer in each of their last 5 games. Pound Michigan.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Pelicans +9
Bottom Line: I expect New Orleans to keep this one closer than the oddsmakers think as Houston gets caught looking ahead to tomorrow's matchup with Oklahoma City. The Rockets are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a win. The Pelicans are 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings, and the underdog is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings. New Orleans just played last night while Houston had the night off, but New Orleans is one of the deeper teams in the NBA. Pound the Pelicans as they have plenty left in the tank to give Houston a run for the money.

5* Wiseguy NCAAB *BEST BET* on Boston College +9
Bottom Line: VCU will have a tough time covering this number against a B.C. squad that plays a half-court game and takes excellent care of the rock. VCU is 0-6 ATS versus slow-down teams averaging 53 or less shots/game over the last 2 seasons and 0-8 ATS versus excellent ball handling teams that committing 12 or fewer turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons. VCU forced VA Tech into 27 turnovers last game, but the Rams are 0-6 ATS after a game forcing an opponent to commit 25 or more turnovers over the last 2 seasons. VCU is also 0-6 ATS when playing away from home on 5 of 6 days' rest over the last 3 seasons. BC was upset at Auburn last game, but it is on an 8-0 ATS run in road/neutral court games off an upset loss of 10 points or more. Pound the Eagles.

4* Major Russell Athletic Bowl *BLOOD BATH* on Miami +3.5
Bottom Line: One thing you don't want to do is count out a team coached by Al Golden. Teams he's headed up are a sweet 34-18 ATS in the underdog role. Since he's been at Miami the Hurricanes have been a nice investment against good offensive teams like Louisville that average 5.9 or more yards per play, going 8-1 ATS versus such opponents and losing to them by only 0.1 points on average. Additionally, the Hurricanes are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following an ATS win while the Cardinals are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win. Bet Miami.

4* Major NBA *CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT* on Kings +8
Bottom Line: The Heat will go through the motions tonight as they look ahead to tomorrow's showing in Portland. The Kings are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games versus a team with a winning road record, and they are on a 31-15 ATS run as a home underdog of 6.5 to 9 points.

4* Major Fight Hunger Bowl Bailout on BYU +3.5
Bottom Line: You don't want to bet against Bronco Mendenhall this time of year. His BYU teams are a perfect 4-0 SU & ATS in bowl games the last 4 years, winning them by 18.0 points on average. The Cougars are also on an impressive 9-1 ATS run when catching points. Bet BYU.

4* Major NBA *SUREFIRE* on Magic +3.5
Bottom Line: The home team has had the decisive edge in the series, going 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings. The dog has been a strong play in the series as well, going 13-6 ATS in the last 19 meetings. We'll grab the home dog tonight.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Bobcats +9
Bottom Line: Look for the Thunder to get caught looking ahead to upcoming games against Houston and Portland. The Bobcats are the more rested team, and they'll go after this game hard because they embark on a stretch where they play 5 straight on the road following it. The Bobcats are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games versus a team with a winning record and 14-5 ATS as an underdog this season. Pound the Bobcats.

5* Wiseguy Texas Bowl *BEST BET* on Syracuse +5
Bottom Line: This line smells fishy. Minnesota won last season's meeting by 7 points and returns 16 starters from that team yet it is only laying 5 points here? Furthermore, Minnesota defeated Northwestern and Penn State this season while Syracuse lost to both. The books are expecting bettors to look at these two things and jump on the Gophers, but I'm not going to bite. Syracuse can flat out run the football, and that doesn't bode well for a Minnesota defense that was gashed time and time again by the run down the stretch. Minnesota relies heavily on its running game, but the Orange have the better run-stuffing defense. They rank 27th in the nation with 138.4 rushing yards allowed per game. The Orange are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games. Take the points.

5* Wiseguy Poinsettia Bowl *PUNISHER* on Utah State +2
Bottom Line: Utah State has quietly been one of the best investments in college football, going 19-6 ATS over the last 2 seasons. It saw a 5-game win streak come to an end with a loss at Fresno State in its last game, but that actually plays in our favor. Consider that the Aggies are 7-0 ATS in road/neutral field games after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons, winning by an average of 18.5 points in these contests. Utah State's success has stemmed from a defense than ranks 7th in the nation in points allowed per game (17.3), 12th in total yards allowed per game (332.2) and 10th in rushing yards allowed per game (107.4). Northern Illinois is very reliant on its running game, which hurts its chances against a very good run-stuffing defense. The Aggies are 8-1 ATS the last 2 seasons versus good offensive teams that average 5.9 yards/play or more. The Huskies are 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 neutral site games. This bowl game is a major letdown for NIU, which had its sights set on a second-straight BCS bowl. Utah State, on the other hand, is very excited to be here after playing in the Idaho Potato Bowl in their last two bowl trips. Pound Utah State.

4* Major NBA *SUREFIRE* (TNT) on Grizzlies +8
Bottom Line: Expect a letdown from the Rockets following yesterday's big win over the Spurs. The Rockets are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win. The Rockets should be showing some fatigue as well. They are playing a 5th game in 7 days and are on an 8-28 ATS slide at home when playing 5 games in 7 days. The Grizzlies are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games when playing on 2 days' rest. They are on a 73-44 ATS run in road games when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Cavaliers +3
Bottom Line: Playing on any team that's coming off an upset defeat of 15 or more points has resulted in a 50-19 ATS record the last 17 years if they're up against an opponent that is coming off a cover on the road in a game they lost. This system tightens up to 29-9 ATS if the team we are playing on is at home. Pound Cleveland.

4* Major NBA *CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT* on Warriors -2
Bottom Line: Playing against road teams that have a winning record when the line is +3 to -3 has resulted in a 44-18 ATS record the last 5 seasons if they went over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game and are playing another winning team. The Warriors are 16-6 ATS in home games after covering the number in 2 of their last 3 over the last 2 seasons. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Lakers +9
Bottom Line: The Lakers are 15-5 ATS after a blowout loss of 15 points or more over the last 3 seasons. Playing against any team like Miami that has combined with its opponents to score 215 points or more in its last two games and allows 92-98 ppg has resulted in a 20-3 ATS record the last 5 seasons if they are up against a team that allows 102 ppg or more. This system tightens up to 4-0 ATS the last 3 seasons. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings, and the underdog is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Pound LA.

4* Major NBA Early *BLOOD BATH* on Nets -2.5
Bottom Line: The Nets will be out for payback because they were knocked out of the playoffs by the Bulls last season. Chicago has really struggled on the road where it is 3-11 SU & 4-10 ATS this season. The Bulls are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games when playing on 3 or more days' rest, 7-22 ATS in their last 29 games versus a team with a winning percentage below .400 and 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games following a win.

4* Major Hawaii Bowl *BLOOD BATH* on Boise State +3.5
Bottom Line: Boise State has been terrific this time of year. The Broncos have won their last four bowl games. They have won or lost by fewer than 3.5 points in each of their last 7 bowls, creating a perfect 7-0 bowl trend in our favor. Their last two bowl wins have come against Pac-12 school Washington and Arizona State so I feel very comfortable grabbing the points with the Broncos. Both teams struggle defensively, but Boise State has the edge because it has better balance on offense. Oregon State has no running game, which is significant because the Broncos are on a 9-1 ATS run versus teams that average 3.25 yards or less per carry. Also, Boise State is on a 17-5 ATS run when playing away from the blue turf against poor defensive teams that give up 5.9 yards or more per play. The Broncos are also on an impressive 20-4 ATS run after failing to cover the spread in 2 of their last 3 games.

4* Major Western Conference *SUREFIRE* on Nuggets -114
Bottom Line: The Warriors have struggled on the road where they are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games. They have also struggled in Denver where they are 2-16 in the last 18 regular-season meetings. The Warriors are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games versus a team with a winning record and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a victory. The Warriors knocked Denver out of the playoffs last season, and it will be out for a little revenge tonight.

4* Major Western Conference *SUREFIRE* on Lakers +8
Bottom Line: The Lakers are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a loss and 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss of more than 10 points. Playing road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that have gone under the total by 36 points or more combined in their last five games has resulted in a 47-20 ATS record the last 5 season provided they have a win percentage between 45-55%. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings, and I expect this trend to continue.

5* Wiseguy MNF *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Falcons +14.5
Bottom Line: The 49ers can clinch a playoff spot with a win tonight, but Atlanta isn't about to roll over. The Falcons were stunned in last season's NFC title game, blowing a 17-0 lead to the 49ers. That loss haunted this team all off season, and it will motivate Atlanta tonight. Atlanta may not have been impressive in last week's win over Washington, but it is on a 10-2 ATS run in road games after being outgained by 200 or more total yards. Plus, playing against home favorites of 10.5 or more points that have covered the number in 2 of their last 3 has resulted in a 56-24 ATS record since 1983 if they are a good team (60-75% win pct) playing a team with a losing record. Pound Atlanta.

5* Wiseguy Eastern Conference Game of the Month on Nets +7
Bottom Line: Playing against good offensive teams like Indiana that average 98-102 ppg and have held their last two opponents to 90 points or less has resulted in a 41-15 ATS record the last 5 seasons if they are up against a team like Brooklyn that gives up 102 ppg or more. Also, playing against road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Indiana that are off a blowout win of 15 points or more has resulted in a 36-13 ATS record since 1996 if the game involves a pair of teams that average 98-102 ppg. This system is 3-0 ATS the last 3 seasons. The Nets have played the Pacers as tough as anyone in recent years winning 4 of the last 5 meetings and keeping the score within 5 points in 6 straight meetings. Pound Brooklyn.

4* Major Beef 'O' Brady's Bowl *BLOOD BATH* on East Carolina -14.5
Bottom Line: The Pirates have a sour taste in their mouth after a very disappointing performance at Marshall in their last game. That loss will have them motivated to finish the season strong. The Pirates are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games following a loss. East Carolina is on a 7-0 ATS run after a loss by 17 or more points and on a 6-0 ATS run off a road loss. Ohio is 0-7 ATS off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons, 0-8 ATS after scoring 42 points or more last game over the last 3 seasons and 0-7 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons. Bet the Pirates.

4* Major NBA *CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT* on T-Wolves +6
Bottom Line: Now's the time to fade the Clippers who are on a 19-40 ATS slide after successfully covering the spread in 4 or more consecutive games. The Timberwolves are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games following an ATS loss, 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games following a SU loss, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games versus a team with a winning home record. Plus, they will be very motivated here having dropped the season's first two matchups. Third time's a charm for Minnesota.

4* Major SNF *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Bears +3
Bottom Line: I'll take the points with the Bears because they likely need to win out to win the NFC North. The Lions have an excellent chance to win out with games against the Giants and Vikings to finish the season and Chicago can't afford to slip up because Detroit owns the tiebreaker. I'm confident the Lions will find a way to beat the Giants, which means the Bears need to take care of business to hold the position of controlling their own destiny. Philly can win the NFC East by beating the Bears if Dallas loses its earlier game against the Redskins. If Dallas beats Washington, the Eagles will have a hard time focusing on the task at hand knowing their playoff fate comes down to a Week 17 showdown at Dallas. If Detroit loses and Green Bay wins, the Bears would need to beat the Packers in Week 17 to reach the playoffs. Regardless if this game can decide anything for either team, the Bears are the play because of their passing game with Cutler or McCown. The Eagles are terrible against the pass, going 0-7 ATS at home the last 2 seasons versus teams that complete 61% or more of their pass attempts. Philly is also 0-7 ATS in home games after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons and 0-6 ATS in home games off an upset loss over the last 3 seasons. The Eagles are 5-20-1 ATS in their last 26 home games overall. Chicago has the slightly better defense with or without Lance Briggs, who is listed as probable. Bet the Bears.

4* Major NBA *SUREFIRE* on Raptors +11
Bottom Line: Playing against favorites of 10 or more points after 8 or more consecutive wins has resulted in a 29-10 ATS record the last 5 seasons provided they have a winning record and are playing a losing team.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Celtics +12.5
Bottom Line: The Pacers can't be trusted laying this many points. They are just 2-4 ATS as a double-digit favorite this season and 1-3 ATS when favored by 12 or more. The Celtics are 3-0 ATS on the season when catching at least 12 points so there is definitely value in them at this number. The Celtics are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings and 11-5 ATS in the last 16 meetings at Indiana. Pound Boston.

5* Wiseguy NFL Game of the Week on Patriots +2.5
Bottom Line: I like New England to win this game. The Patriots have been awesome in bounce-back spots, going 33-5 in their last 38 following a defeat, including 6-0 in their last 6. They are a lethal 15-5 ATS under Belichick following a close loss of 6 points or less. They have responded to win by an average of 12.4 points in this spot. The Patriots lost both meetings to Baltimore last season. One of those cost Tom Brady and company a trip to the Super Bowl so this is a game New England wants desperately. The regular-season loss came by a single point and the Pats have won or lost by fewer than 2.5 points in 8 of the last 10 meetings. Pound New England.

4* Major Early *BEST BET* on Bucs +5
Bottom Line: St. Louis has struggled to defend the pass, and that will give Tampa Bay an excellent opportunity to keep this one within the number. The Bucs are on a 13-4 ATS run in road games in the second half of the schedule versus teams allowing an average of 7.0 yards or more per pass. Head coach Jeff Fisher prefers to play close to the vest. Because of his mentality, his teams are only 29-47 ATS lifetime when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points.

4* Major NBA *CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT* on Pelicans +9
Bottom Line: Portland's Achilles' heel is its defense, and it will have a hard time covering this big number against a New Orleans squad that can really score the rock. The Pelicans will be very focused here because they've lost their last two by double digits. Fortunately, they are 26-8-1 ATS in their last 35 games following a loss of more than 10 points. And, playing road underdogs after 2 straight losses by 10 points or more that are up against an opponent that has tallied a combined score of 215 points or more in 2 straight games has resulted in a 45-16 ATS record since 1996. The Pelicans have given Portland trouble lately and are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings as a result.

4* Major New Orleans Bowl *PRIME TIME PUNISHER* on Louisiana-Lafayette +2.5
Bottom Line: Tulane is favored because it is at home, but that it isn't a good enough reason against the Ragin' Cajuns. Tulane hasn't been to a bowl since 2002 while Lafayette has won this bowl game each of the past two seasons. It's clearly very comfortable in the Superdome. Lafayette smoked Tulane 41-13 last season. I see this one being closer, but the Ragin' Cajuns still have the edge because they average over 120 more yards per game than Tulane. The Ragin' Cajuns have been up to the challenge against good competition outside Cajun Field. They are 7-0 ATS in road/neutral field games versus teams that sport a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

4* Major NCAAB *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Michigan -2
Bottom Line: I like Michigan in this neutral court battle whether McGary goes or not. Stanford finds itself in a letdown spot after a big upset win at UConn. Michigan, meanwhile, is in bounce-back mode following a narrow home loss to Arizona. Michigan is 14-5 ATS following 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons. John Beilein's teams are 21-9 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 6 points or less or pickem since 1997. His Michigan teams are 15-6 ATS when getting 5 or 6 days or preparation for an opponent.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Jazz +4.5
Bottom Line: The Jazz were smoked last night but are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a loss of more than 10 points. The Bobcats wasted their legs in last night's come from behind victory and are 16-34 ATS when playing the 2nd game of a back-to-back over the last 3 seasons, losing by an average of 12.1 points in this spot. This is also Charlotte's 4th game in 5 days, and it is 2-15 ATS when playing a 4th game in 5 days over the last 3 seasons, losing by 14.6 points in this spot. The Jazz are 8-0 SU and 6-1-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Pound Utah.

5* Wiseguy Las Vegas Bowl *BEST BET* on Fresno State +7
Bottom Line: Oddsmakers adjusted their lines after USC's slow start, and there was some value in the Trojans during a 4-week stretch from late October to mid-November. USC got on a win streak and oddsmakers were forced to adjust their lines again. Now, they're back to setting inflated lines for the Trojans like they normally do. Consider that USC is 0-7 ATS when playing away from Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum after failing to cover the spread in 2 of its last 3 games over the last 2 seasons. It has lost by an average of 4.6 points in this situation. This is a particularly tough spot for the Trojans because of the coaching change they've had to deal with. Fresno State had hopes of being a BCS buster but won't lay down for mighty USC. Plus, Derek Carr might be the best QB in the country. Take the points.

4* Major NBA *CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT* on Lakers +6.5
Bottom Line: This line is an overreaction to Kobe Bryant being out with an injury. Plus, this is a bad spot for Minnesota, which is off a huge win against Portland and has a revenge game against the Clippers up next. I don't see the T-Wolves being completely focused on the task at hand since they crushed the Lakers in the season's first meeting. The Timberwolves are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a win of more than 10 points, 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 games following any win and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS win. The Lakers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400.

4* Major NBA *SUREFIRE* on Kings +11
Bottom Line: I'm expecting a letdown from the Heat following a huge win over the Pacers. Plus, we have some convincing numbers supporting this play. Playing underdogs of 10 points or more on Friday nights has resulted in a 99-59 ATS record the last 5 seasons. Playing against favorites of 10 or more points that are off a home win and are playing on Friday night has resulted in a 48-18 ATS record the last 5 seasons.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on 76ers +6.5
Bottom Line: The 76ers were completely humiliated by the Nets the last time they took the floor. Motivated by that defeat, I expect the 76ers to give Brooklyn a game this time around. Philly will be very rested and very prepared for this contest as it has had 3 days off. It will be further motivated by the fact it plays 6 straight on the road following this one. The 76ers really want to carry a little momentum into their road trip. Also, Philly is expected to get Michael Carter-Williams back tonight so that is a big boost. Playing home underdogs that have failed to cover the spread in 8 or more of their last 10 games has resulted in a 69-37 ATS record since 1996 if they are up against a team that has covered the number in 5 of 6 of their last 7 games. Pound Philly.

5* Wiseguy NBA on TNT Game of the Month on Warriors -157 (I expect the Warriors to cover the spread but am taking them on the ML for insurance as I really like them to win this game)
Bottom Line: This game is far more important to the Warriors, who lost to San Antonio in last season's playoffs and were defeated 76-74 in San Antonio in this season's first meeting. The Warriors didn't have Curry for that game and his presence was missed. The Spurs won't have Parker tonight, and they just played last night in Phoenix with Leonard, Duncan and Ginobli seeing big minutes. The Spurs will be much more concerned with Saturday's revenge game against Oklahoma City and will want to make sure they have something left in the tank. The Spurs are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games versus a team with a winning record. The Warriors are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. Pound Golden State.

4* Major NBA on TNT *SUREFIRE* on Bulls +13.5
Bottom Line: Playing against double-digit home favorites that are in the midst of a win streak of 6 games or more has resulted in a 40-16 ATS record the last 5 seasons if they are a winning team playing a losing one. Teams fitting this scenario have been favored by an average of 13.2 points but have won by only 10.8 points on average. Bet Chicago.

4* Major NBA *CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT* on Pelicans +10.5
Bottom Line: Look for the Pelicans to respond following last night's 11-point loss at Golden State. They should also get some help from a Clippers squad that is in for a letdown following a big win over the Spurs. New Orleans is an outstanding 20-8 ATS off a road loss by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons, winning by an average of 2.2 points in this situation.

5* Wiseguy NBA Northwest Division Game of the Year on Timberwolves -116
Bottom Line: This is a nightmare of a spot for Portland, which is playing its 4th road game in 5 days and is coming off an emotionally and physically draining last-second victory in Cleveland last night. The T-Wolves will be the much fresher side having had last night off. They'll also be the hungrier side because they are coming off a defeat in their last game, and they were swept by the Blazers last season. The Timberwolves are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a SU loss, 14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 games following an ATS loss and 18-7 ATS in their last 25 games when playing on 1 day of rest. The favorite is 17-6 ATS in the last 23 meetings. Pound Minnesota.

4* Major NBA *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Nuggets +3
Bottom Line: Denver is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games versus winning teams. It is 8-0 ATS in home games the last 2 seasons versus very good teams that outscore opponents by 6.0 points or more per game. It has won these games by an average of 7.3 points. The Nuggets are even 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 home games versus teams with a road winning percentage greater than .600. Denver is 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings with the loss coming by only 2 points.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Cavs +5
Bottom Line: The Blazers are being overvalued on the road against a Cleveland club that is 4-0 SU and ATS in its last 4 home games. The Cavs have had 2 days to gear up for this game while Portland will be playing on the road for the 3rd time in 4 days. This kind of a stretch is difficult enough, but it was made more difficult by getting taken to OT by the Pistons Sunday. The Cavs are 7-2 in their last 9 home games against the Blazers with the losses coming by 6 points and 1 point. The Cavs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games versus winning teams. Pound the Cavs.

5* Wiseguy Monday Night Football GAME OF THE MONTH on Lions -6.5
Bottom Line: The Detroit offense has been unstoppable at Ford Field where it is averaging 477.0 yards and 31.7 points per game. It should be able to move the football almost at will against a Baltimore defense that has struggled on the road. The Ravens are 1-5 on the road, largely because the defense is allowing 26.8 ppg on the highway. The defense isn't solely to blame as it has had to spend way too much time on the field because of an offense that is among the worst in the NFL. Baltimore's only hope is to come up with some takeaways, but it has been among the least opportunistic teams in the AFC all season. The Detroit offense couldn't do much of anything in Philly last week in harsh conditions. However, the Lions are on a 25-6 ATS run after being held to 4.0 yards or less per play in their previous game. Pound the Lions.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Celtics +2
Bottom Line: This is a difficult spot for Minnesota, which is playing the second game of a back-to-back and its 5th game in 7 days. The Timberwolves are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games when playing without a day of rest. Boston is also 15-4 ATS in home games versus poor defensive teams that allow 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. It has defeated these teams by an average of 10.6 points.

4* Major NBA *SUREFIRE* on Hawks -6
Bottom Line: The Lakers upset the Bobcats last game but are 2-11 ATS in road games after an upset win the last 3 seasons, losing by an average of 10.6 points in this spot. LA's lack of back court depth will be a major issue tonight against an Atlanta team with some very capable guards (Teague, Williams, Korver, Mack).

4* Major SNF *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Steelers +3
Bottom Line: The Bengals haven't had near the success on the road where they are 2-5-1 ATS in the last 8. The Bengals have also been a poor investment in division play at 4-9-2 ATS in their last 15 versus the AFC North. The Steelers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 versus the AFC North and 10-4 ATS in the last 14 versus the Bengals. Roethlisberger is playing well, completing 63.0 percent of his passes for 11 touchdowns and no interceptions over his last 4 games, and he has a great track record versus Cincy (14-6 lifetime). Cincy has defeated the Steelers by more than 3 points just twice in the last 14 meetings. That's a 12-2 trend leaving no doubt we're on the right side. Bet the Steelers.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Pistons +4
Bottom Line: Portland's 139-point outburst in Philadelphia places it in fade territory as it is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games after scoring more than 125 points in its previous game. We saw this trend in action recently as the Blazers dropped 130 on Utah and then lost to Dallas the next night. The Pistons played the Blazers tough in Portland earlier this season, losing by only 6 points despite shooting 3 of 14 from 3-point range. Look for them to avenge that loss at home as the home side is 4-0 SU and ATS in the last 4 meetings.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Kings +6.5
Bottom Line: The Kings have been at their best at home against good teams. Recently, they have played the Clippers, Warriors and Thunder to within 6 points or less, and they beat the Mavs. In fact, the Kings are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600 and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games versus a team that has a winning record on the road. The Rockets are a soft 4-13-1 ATS in their last 18 away games versus clubs with a losing mark at home.

4* Major NFL *PUBLIC MASSACRE* on Rams +7
Bottom Line: New Orleans isn't the same team on the road, period. I know this game will be in a dome, but the Saints struggled to win at the Georgia Dome Nov. 21 and also lost by double-digits as a 13.5-point favorite the last time they visited the Edward Jones Dome. The Saints are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a win. The Rams are 6-0 ATS in home games versus good teams that outscore opponents by an average of 6.0 points or more per game over the last 3 seasons. St. Louis is also 7-0 ATS in the second half of the season under Fisher versus good offensive teams that average 5.65 yards per play or more. Additionally, playing against favorites off a win of 14 or more points against an opponent off 2 straight losses of 10 or more points has resulted in a 26-9 ATS record the last 10 seasons.

4* Major AFC West *DIVISIONAL DOMINATOR* on Raiders +5.5
Bottom Line: Playing underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that trailed by 14 points or more at halftime of their last game has resulted in a 29-10 ATS record since 1983 if they're up against a team that has scored 25 points or more in 3 straight games. Teams fitting this scenario have been underdogs of 6.7 points on average but have lost by only 2.2 points on average. This system tightens up to 8-2 ATS over the last 5 seasons. The Chiefs are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 versus the AFC West while the Raiders are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 versus the AFC West. The Chiefs are 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings, and the dog is 11-2 ATS in the last 13 matchups.

5* Wiseguy NFL Blowout Game of the Year on Bills -1
Bottom Line: Buffalo defeated Jacksonville 34-18 last season while outgaining the Jaguars 344-236. I fully expect the Bills to dominate again in what is a highly-motivated spot. Buffalo held a closed-door meeting following last week's ugly loss at Tampa Bay. That means this team is serious about finishing the season strong. Buffalo has shown what it is capable of with nice wins over the Panthers, Ravens and Dolphins - teams with winning records. The Bills also nearly pulled off wins against the Patriots and Bengals and outgained the Chiefs 470-210. The Bills have been a tremendous investment when coming off a road loss, going 9-1 ATS in this situation the last 2 seasons. They are also 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after being held to less than 250 total yards in their previous game. Playing road teams after the first month of the season if the line is +3 to -3 and they are off a road defeat has resulted in a 70-36 ATS record the last 10 seasons. Pound Buffalo.

5* Wiseguy NCAAB Double Digit *BLOOD BATH* on UL-Lafayette -8
Bottom Line: Playing on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points - an excellent offensive team (averages 76 or more ppg) against an average defensive team (allows 67-74 ppg), after a combined score of 165 points or more, has resulted in a 51-16 ATS record the last 5 seasons. ULL is on a 10-2 ATS run after a game where it shot 43% or lower and allowed 57% or higher. The Ragin' Cajuns are also 8-1 ATS after allowing 75 points or more in 2 straight games under coach Bob Marlin. The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings, winning these by 16.3 points on average. Pound ULL.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Lakers +3
Bottom Line: Expect the Lakers to respond following last night's embarrassing loss in Oklahoma City. L.A. is 0-3 since Kobe Bryant's return and that can't be sitting well with the future Hall of Famer. Look for a big-time performance from Bryant here. The Bobcats lost a tough one in Indiana last night, a game they led late in the fourth. I believe they'll still be hanging on to that one. The Lakers are a strong 14-4 ATS after a blowout loss by 15 points or more over the last 3 seasons. Pound LA.

5* Wiseguy NCAAF *PUNISHER* on Army +13
Bottom Line: The Midshipmen have been a poor late-season investment at 0-4 ATS in their last 4 December contests. They have also been a poor play following a bye at 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a bye week. Army is one of the top rushing teams in the nation. Because of the respect Navy must give to the run, it will be left susceptible to a big play or two through the air. The Midshipmen are 0-6 ATS lifetime under coach Niumatalolo when playing away from home after allowing 325 or more passing yards in their last game. The Middies are also 3-11 ATS under Niumatalolo after 2 or more consecutive covers. Army is 8-1 ATS under Ellerson after trailing in their previous game by 17 or more points at the half and 10-2 ATS under his watch after allowing 42 points or more last game. Pound Army.

4* Major NBA *SUREFIRE* on Pistons -5.5
Bottom Line: The Pistons are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 versus NBA Atlantic division foes and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Playing against road teams that are looking for revenge for a loss where they allowed 100 points or more has resulted in a 93-53 ATS record the last 5 seasons, provided they have a win percentage of 25% to 40% and their opponent has a losing record.

5* Wiseguy NBA Atlantic Division Game of the Month on Knicks +4.5
Bottom Line: New York lost by 41 at home to Boston Sunday, but it has proven time and time again that it will respond following such defeats. Consider that the Knicks are 24-7 ATS when out for revenge for a home blowout loss of 20 points or more since 1996. They have won these games straight up by an average of 3.6 points. New York is also 24-11 ATS under coach Woodson when out for revenge for a loss where it allowed 100 points or more. It has won these games straight up by an average of 2.5 points. The Knicks have shine under the bright Friday night lights, going 7-0 ATS in their last 7 Friday games. Pound the Knicks.

4* Major NBA *SUREFIRE* on Bobcats +12.5
Bottom Line: The Bobcats are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games versus a team with a home winning percentage greater than .600. Playing against favorites of 10 or more points that are off a home win and playing on Friday night has resulted in a 47-18 ATS record the last 5 seasons. Playing road underdogs of 10 or more points on Friday night has resulted in a 91-50 ATS record the last 5 seasons. This system tightens up to 73-33 ATS if they are coming off a defeat.

5* Wiseguy NFL *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Chargers +10.5
Bottom Line: San Diego played Denver to an 8-point game in the first meeting despite getting off to a terrible start. It was able to come back behind a defense that held the Broncos to a season-low 397 yards and an offense that ranks 4th in the league. In a game San Diego absolutely must have to hang on to its slim postseason hopes, I expect it to give the Broncos a game. Denver is on a 5-15 ATS skid after scoring 30 points or more in 3 straight games. The Broncos are also on a 9-22 ATS skid when playing against teams with a win percentage of 40-49%. They are just 9-22 ATS in their last 31 games in the second half of the season versus teams that complete 64% or more of their passes. The road team is on a 5-0-1 ATS run, and the Chargers are 5-0-4 ATS in the last 9 matchups in Denver. Pound San Diego.

5* Wiseguy NBA on TNT *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Nets +3
Bottom Line: The Clippers won't have much left in the tank following last night's hard-fought win in Boston. This will be their 6th road game in 9 days. Brooklyn has shown signs of life with back-to-back wins, and it will be the fresher side as this will be just its 3rd game in 6 days. The Clippers are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings overall and 1-12 ATS in the last 13 road meetings in the series. The Nets are 5-0 SU and ATS in their last 5 home meetings in the series. They are also 13-1 the last 14 times they have hosted the Clippers. Pound the Nets.

4* Major NBA *CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT* on Jazz +7.5
Bottom Line: Sacramento has been playing well, but I expect the addition of Rudy Gay and company to disrupt its rhythm momentarily. Sac is 3-13 ATS in home games after having won 2 of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons. Utah is 13-3 ATS after failing to cover 4 of its last 5 games over the last 3 seasons.

4* Major NBA *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Celtics +6.5
Bottom Line: The Celtics are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a cover while the Clippers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a cover. The Clippers have defeated Boston by more than 6 points just 1 time in the last 11 meetings. I'll grab the points in what should be a close game as Boston draws added motivation from a visit from its former coach.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Magic +6.5
Bottom Line: I'm not ready to trust the Bobcats laying this many points considering they are a dismal 31-53 ATS at home over the last 3 seasons. Off a rewarding win over Golden State, I anticipate a letdown. Consider that Charlotte is on a 5-17 ATS slide coming off an upset victory, losing by an average of 7.9 points in this spot. Pound Orlando.

4* Major NBA Situational *SUREFIRE* on T-Wolves +1
Bottom Line: Great spot for a well-rested Minnesota squad against a Detroit club playing its 3rd game in 4 days. Playing all teams when the line is +3 to -3 that are off a home loss has resulted in a 63-28 ATS record since 1996 if they are playing for the 3rd time or less in 10 days. This system is 6-1 ATS the last 3 seasons. The T-Wolves have also won 6 straight against Detroit by an average of 11.5 points.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Hawks +5.5
Bottom Line: Playing underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points off 2 or more consecutive home wins has resulted in a 49-22 ATS record the last 5 seasons if they are playing for just the 4th time or fewer in 10 days. Teams fitting this scenario have been underdogs of 6.0 points on average but have lost by just 2.7. Atlanta has won 3 straight at home with 2 of the wins coming against good Dallas and LA Clippers teams. The Thunder are just 3-3 in their last 6 on the road with 1 of the wins coming by just 2 points over a poor Sacramento team. The Hawks have won 2 of their last 3 against OKC. Pound Atlanta.

4* Major NBA *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Pacers -3
Bottom Line: The Pacers are 9-0 at home this season and have won 2 straight at home against the Heat by 7 and 14 points. Indiana has also won 4 of its last 5 home games against the Heat. The Pacers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss of more than 10 points and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games when playing on 1 day of rest. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.

5* Wiseguy MNF *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Bears +1.5
Bottom Line: Playing December home underdogs or pickems that are off 2 or more consecutive losses ATS has resulted in a 93-52 ATS record since 1983. Additionally, playing all teams (Chicago) when the line is +3 to -3 that average 5.7 yards or more per play has resulted in a 55-28 ATS record the last 10 seasons if they have allowed an average of 400.0 yards or more in their last 3 games. The Cowboys have struggled late in the season, going 11-15 in Romo's December starts. They are also just 6-16 ATS in games played in the second half of the schedule over the last 3 seasons, including 0-7 ATS during this stretch when matched up against an excellent offensive team that averages 375 or more yards per game. Dallas is only 9-20 ATS when laying points under Garrett. Pound Chicago.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Wizards +2
Bottom Line: Can't see the road-weary Nuggets getting past a Washington squad that is 5-1 in its last 6 at home. This will be Denver's 5th road contest in 7 days while the Wiz will be playing at home and for just the 2nd time in 7 days. Big edge for Wash in terms of fresh legs. The Wizards went 2-0 SU and ATS versus Denver last season and are 22-9-1 ATS in their last 32 versus the Western Conference. Pound Washington.

4* Major SNF *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Saints -3
Bottom Line: Look for New Orleans to bounce-back strong at home where they are on an 18-5 ATS run. The Saints haven't lost consecutive games in a single regular season under coach Sean Payton since 2009, and they are 8-1 ATS in home games off a road loss over the last 3 seasons, winning by an average of 21.4 points in this spot.

5* Wiseguy NCAAB *BEST BET* (ESPNU) on Ole Miss -1
Bottom Line: Look for the Rebels to hand Oregon its first defeat of the season. Ole Miss is an impressive 13-6-2 ATS in its last 21 home games, 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600 and 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games versus Pacific-12 opponents. Since Andy Kennedy took over the Rebels, they are 13-5 ATS at home when the line is +3 to -3. They are also 23-12 ATS in home non-conference games, 26-12 ATS versus teams with a win percentage greater than .800 and 32-10 ATS versus teams scoring 77+ points/game under his watch.

4* Major Late Afternoon *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on 49ers -2.5
Bottom Line: Expect a letdown from the Seahawks following their huge MNF victory over the Saints. Seattle is on a 3-12 ATS slide in road games after a win by 21 or more points, losing by an average of 5.4 points in these games. The home team is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings, and the favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.

4* Major Late Afternoon *SUREFIRE* on Chargers -3
Bottom Line: The Chargers have dropped 4 of 5 but have been on the road 3 times during this stretch and have played some good football teams (Denver, KC, Cincy). They'll rebound here against a Giants squad that has dropped 4 of 6 on the road. The Giants are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a win. The Chargers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games after being held to less than 15 points in their previous game and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a loss.

5* Wiseguy NFL Double Digit Blood Bath Game of the Year on Bengals -6
Bottom Line: Cincy rolls at home against the struggling Colts. Indy is not the same team that has wins over the 49ers, Seahawks and Broncos. It is 3-2 over its last 5 games but could have been 0-5 during this stretch despite playing just 1 team that currently has a winning record. It hasn't been able to protect Luck, and the constant pressure has taken a toll as he has two touchdowns, five interceptions and a 66.7 passer rating over his last four contests. He's been sacked 29 times this season and was dropped a season-worst five times last week. He will face more pressure here against a Cincy team that has recorded 18 sacks over its last five games. The Bengals are 5-0 SU and ATS at home this season, winning these games by an average of 16.4 points. Pound Cincy.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Nets -140
Bottom Line: This is a terrible spot for Milwaukee which will be playing its 2nd game in as many nights and its 4th in 5 days. The Bucks went to OT last night so they will really be feeling the effects of fatigue. The Bucks are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. Brooklyn has been brutally embarrassed in its last two games, but I believe it responds here. The Bucks are 5-15 ATS as a home underdog over the last 2 seasons and 5-17 ATS in home games off a road win over the last 3 seasons. Pound Brooklyn.

4* Major Pac-12 Championship *PUNISHER* on Arizona State -3
Bottom Line: I like ASU to avenge an early season loss at Stanford. The Sun Devils are 7-0 at home this season, and teams that are led by coach Todd Graham are 25-11 ATS when playing with revenge. The Sun Devils are also a tremendous 14-5 ATS as chalk under Graham.

5* Wiseguy NCAAB Game of the Week on St. Joseph's +5
Bottom Line: The Villanova Wildcats are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a win of more than 20 points and 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 versus Atlantic 10 opponents. The Hawks are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 home games. Look for Nova to struggle in its first true road game of the season as it goes up against a St. Joe's squad that will be hungry to avenge last season's 4-point loss.

5* Wiseguy Conference Championship Game of the Year on Mizzou +2.5
Bottom Line: The old saying "it's better to be lucky than good" certainly applies to Auburn, which followed up its "Immaculate Deflection" victory over Georgia with a miracle win over two-time defending national champion Alabama. However, I believe Auburn's luck finally runs out here. Mizzou is one of the best run-stuffing teams in the country. It will dare Auburn to pass the football, and I don't see Auburn being good enough through the air to win this game. Another big key is how well Missouri takes care of the football. It has just 12 turnovers all season and is 8-0 ATS this season after a game where it committed 1 or less turnovers. Pound Mizzou.

4* Major C-USA Championship *BLOOD BATH* on Rice +6.5
Bottom Line: Big advantage for Rice playing this game at home where it is 7-0 ATS under coach Bailiff versus good offensive teams that average 31.0 or more points per game. The Owls have defeated these teams by an average of 9.1 points. Rice is also on an 11-0 ATS run at home versus excellent passing teams like Marshall that average 275.0 or more passing yards per game. It has defeated these teams by 7.4 points on average.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Jazz +11.5
Bottom Line: Huge letdown spot for the Blazers coming off big wins over Indy and OKC. Playing against Friday night double-digit home favorites that are off a home win has resulted in a 43-17 ATS record the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting this scenario have won by just 8.9 points on average so there's plenty of line value here. Pound Utah.

4* Major NBA Fool's Gold on Raptors +4.5
Bottom Line: The Suns are 13-5 ATS this season but have done the majority of their damage as an underdog. They are just 5-16 ATS as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons and 3-15 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons. Toronto is 3-0 SU and ATS in the last 3 meetings with 2 of these in Phoenix.

5* Wiseguy *FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST* on Bowling Green +5
Bottom Line: I'll grab the points with Bowling Green as it has an excellent chance to win this game outright behind a stop unit that ranks 5th in the country in points allowed per game. Last week, Bowling Green held Buffalo to just 7 points on the road. Dave Clawson's Bowling Green teams have been fueled by such dominant defensive performances, going 9-1 ATS following a game where they held their opponent to 9 points or fewer. This trend tightens up to a perfect 6-0 ATS this season. Pound BG.

5* Wiseguy NFL *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Jaguars +3.5
Bottom Line: I was on the Texans last week as they covered a big spread in New England while giving the Patriots all they wanted and more. That tough loss sets them up for letdown here, playing on the road in a very short week. The Texans are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games following a game in which they covered the spread. Houston has consistently played to the level of its competition under Kubiak, going 1-9 ATS in games played in the second half of the schedule versus poor defensive teams that give up 27 points or more per game. They have lost to these teams by 2.3 points on average. Pound the Jags.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Clippers +1.5
Bottom Line: The Clippers went down in Atlanta last night but are a lucrative 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games when playing without a day of rest. They will have no problem getting up for this one because they have lost 5 straight to the Grizzlies going back to last season's playoffs. You know that isn't sitting well with Chris Paul and company, and I expect them to bring the skid to an end tonight. The Grizzlies are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games, and the Clippers have won three of their last four regular-season games at Memphis.

4* Major AAC *SUREFIRE* on Cincy +3.5
Bottom Line: I'll take the points with Cincy at home as it is 4-1 SU and ATS in the last 5 meetings with the loss coming by only 3 points in OT at Louisville last season. That defeat will provide the Bearcats with plenty of motivation on senior night. The Cardinals are on a 0-4 ATS slide versus winning teams. The Bearcats are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home games, and they are on a 34-13 ATS run versus good teams that outscore their opponents by an average of 10.0 points or more per game.

5* Wiseguy Big Ten/ACC Challenge *BEST BET* on Nebraska -4.5
Bottom Line: Nebraska has been an awesome investment at home where it is 7-1-1 ATS in its last 9 home games. Additionally, playing against any team in the first 10 games of the season with 1 or no starters returning that has been held to 65 points or less in 4 straight games has resulted in a 53-23 ATS record since 1997. Teams fitting this scenario have lost by 11.1 points on average. Pound Nebraska.

5* Wiseguy NBA *UNDERDOG SHOCKER* Game of the Month on Bucks +4.5
Bottom Line: This is a huge letdown spot for Detroit following last night's win over the Heat. Meanwhile, this is a revenge spot for Milwaukee as it was embarrassed by 19 in Detroit 1 1/2 weeks ago. Playing any team that has lost 12 or more of its last 15 games ATS, provided that team has is playing 6 or more games in a 10-day span, has resulted in a 90-50 ATS record since 1996. Teams fitting this scenario have been underdogs of 3.5 points on average but have lost by just 0.2 points on average. Pound the Bucks.

4* Major NBA Super System Smoker on Cavs +4.5
Bottom Line: Playing underdogs that have lost 12 or more of their last 15 games ATS has resulted in a 54-23 ATS record since 1996 if they're taking on a team that has won 3 of their last 4 ATS. Teams fitting this scenario have lost by just 2.8 points on average. Value lies with Cleveland.