Sports Picks & Predictions

3* BEST BET on Chiefs -6 -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

4* MAJOR on Bengals/Washington Football Team over 46½ -109

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Eagles/Browns over 45 -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Cardinals +3 +101

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Cardinals/Seahawks under 57½ -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Vikings -2½ -114

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

3* BEST BET on Jaguars +14 -105

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

4* MAJOR on Bucs -4½ -108

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Browns -3 -104

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

3* BEST BET on Patriots/Jets under 41½ -109

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

4* MAJOR on Saints/Bucs over 50 -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

4* MAJOR on Raiders/Chargers over 54 -106

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Texans -6½ -114

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Packers -4 -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Giants +12½ -109

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

3* BEST BET on Chargers/Broncos under 45½ -102

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

3* BEST BET on Titans/Bengals over 54½ -103

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Colts -2½ -114

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Falcons +2½ -106

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Bears/Rams under 46½ -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

4* MAJOR on Jaguars/Chargers over 49 -109

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

3* BEST BET on Browns/Bengals under 52 -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

3* BEST BET on Panthers/Saints over 51 -109

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Steelers -1½ -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Giants/Eagles under 45½ -119

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Cardinals/Cowboys over 54 -105

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

4* MAJOR on Browns/Steelers under 51½ -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* BEST BET on Ravens/Eagles under 46½ -109

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Saints -7½ -115

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

3* BEST BET on Jaguars/Texans over 54 -108

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

4* MAJOR on Cardinals/Jets over 46½ -115

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

3* BEST BET on Eagles/Steelers under 46½ -107

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Steelers -7 -109

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* Thursday Night Total of the Month on Bucs/Bears under 45½ -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Packers -6½ -105

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

3* BEST BET on 49ers -7 -115

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

3* BEST BET on Jaguars/Bengals over 47½ -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Cardinals/Panthers over 51 -109

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

4* BEST BET on Broncos -2 -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* MNF GOY on Ravens -3 -120

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

4* MAJOR on Chargers -6 -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Rams +2½ -115

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Jaguars -3 +105

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* BEST BET on Patriots +4½ -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

3* BEST BET on Lions/Packers over 46 -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

3* BEST BET on Vikings/Colts over 46 -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

3* BEST BET on Colts -2½ -120

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

4* BEST BET on Bills/Dolphins under 42 -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

3* BEST BET on Bears +2½ +100

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* BEST BET on Ravens -7 -115

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* BEST BET on Chiefs -9 -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NFL - Super Bowl 54 (KC/SF) Total NO-BRAINER  on 49ers/Chiefs under 54½ -105

I'm confident we see Super Bowl 54 finish UNDER the mark. This will be the 7th time since 2000 that we have seen a total north of 50 in the Super Bowl and the UNDER has cashed in 5 of the previous 6. The only game that went OVER was Super Bowl 51 when the Patriots made that ridiculous comeback from down 28-3 to force OT and win 34-28. 

Just look at last year, everyone was calling for a shootout between the Rams and Patriots. The total for the game was 58 and it ended up being 13-3. I just think the number here is too high. Sure the Chiefs have the best QB in the league and all these weapons on offense, but they are going up against a really good 49ers defense. Also, San Francisco is a run heavy team and are going to try and limit the possessions of KC by chewing up the clock. 

Another big thing here is the Chiefs defense. Kansas City has really made remarkable strides on the defensive side of the ball. Not just from last year, but from earlier this season. KC's run defense gets a really bad wrap, but in their last 6 games they are giving up just 89 yards/game. Everyone thought Derrick Henry was going to run all over them and they held him to 69 yards on 19 attempts. 

Lastly, you got to factor in the edge these two defenses have with the two weeks to prepare for this game. There's just not a lot at this point that's not on tape for either offense, so both defense are going to be well prepared. I'm not saying it will be like last year, but the number is too high. Take the UNDER! 

5* NFL - Super Bowl 54 VEGAS INSIDER on Chiefs -120

I really like the Chiefs to come out on top in Super Bowl 54. I've been saying Kansas City was the team to beat for a while now and I actually think the number here should be closer to the Chiefs -3 than a pick'em. 

No disrespect to the 49ers, but I just think they are up against it here. No question who has the better quarterback in this game. Patrick Mahomes is the best QB in the league and he's arguably got the most talent around him. I get the 49ers defense is good, but beating the Vikings and Packers is not exactly saying much. Sure Green Bay has Rodgers, but just look at what Rodgers has to work with compared to Mahomes. 

I also don't know that the Chiefs defense is all that far off from San Francisco. They don't have the talent up front like the 49ers, but as a whole these two were actually more similar than you might think. In fact, the Chiefs gave up fewer points/game and played a tougher schedule in terms of offenses faced. 

Say what you want about Andy Reid and him not winning the big game, the guy is one of the best in the business when it comes to getting his team ready with an extra week to prepare. As a head coach his teams are 18-3 ATS in the regular-season and 5-1 ATS in the playoffs. I just think Mahomes and that offense will be too much for SF to overcome. Take Kansas City! 

4* NFL - Pro Bowl (AFC vs NFC) Total NO-BRAINER on NFC/AFC over 49½ -110

It's crazy to think the total for the Pro Bowl is less than that of the Super Bowl. I get the UNDER has cashed in each of the last 3 and 5 of the last 6 Pro Bowls, but the average score since 2014 is still at 49 points. I just think there's too much value here in an exhibition game to take a shot at this price. Take the OVER! 

5* NFL - Packers/49ers NFC GAME OF THE YEAR on 49ers -7 -109

I love the value here with the 49ers at home in the NFC Championship Game. As much respect as I have for Aaron Rodgers, San Francisco is simply better on both sides of the ball and I just don't see Green Bay being able to keep this close on the road. 

These two teams played in the regular-season at San Francisco and the 49ers led 23-0 at the half and would go on to win 37-8 with a 339 to 188 edge in total yards. SF not only limited Aaron Jones to just 38 yards on 13 attempts (2.9 yards/carry), they held Rodgers to mere 104 passing yards and sacked him 5 times. 

When healthy this 49ers defense has been the best in the league and with the returns of Kwon Alexander and Dee Ford in the Divisional Round, they are back to near full strength. When these two have been on the field there's just not a lot teams can do. I'm sure Green Bay will make some adjustments, but I don't think there's anything they can do to make up 25-points. I think it would take a near perfect game just for them to keep this within single digits and that's unlikely to happen. Take San Francisco! 

3* NFL - Seahawks/Packers ATS DESTROYER on Seahawks +4½ -110

The Seahawks are definitely worth a look here as a 4.5-point dog against the Packers. Green Bay may have ended up with the No. 2 seed in the NFC, but I'm not buying for a second that this is the second best team in the NFC.

Packer went 13-3 because of a really soft schedule and that's evident by the fact that they had a mere +63 point differential for the season. Green Bay only played 5 games all season against a team that made the playoffs. They went 3-2 in those games, but two of those wins were against a similarly fraudulent Vikings team and the other was against the Chiefs when they were without Mahomes. Their two losses were by 7 at home to the Eagles and by 31 at San Francisco. 

Seattle has a great home field edge, but that doesn't mean they aren't a good road team. Seahawks are 11-3-1 ATS last 15 road games and 22-8-2 ATS last 32 road games vs a team with a winning home record. They are also 34-16-3 ATS last 53 as a dog. Take Seattle! 

5* NFL Divisional Round PLAY OF THE YEAR on Chiefs -9½ -110

I got no problem laying the big number with Kansas City on Sunday at home against the Texans. I think a lot of people will be drawn to Houston here, simply because Houston won at Kansas City earlier this season. Thing is, the Chiefs were up 17-3 in that game and this is really a different team than when they met back in Week 6. Most notably on the defensive side of the ball. 

Another common thought process for people is that Andy Reid is not a good coach in big games and while he's had his fair share of failures in the playoffs, you simply don't bet against him when he's got two weeks to prepare for an opponent. He's 18-3 ATS off a bye in the regular-season and 4-1 ATS off a bye in the playoffs. 

I think this Chiefs offense has been holding back a lot of things for the playoffs and this Texans defense is one they can exploit. Houston finished with the 29th ranked pass defense, giving up 267.3 ypg. Mahomes will have a field day and that much improved Chiefs defense will do their part behind an electric home crowd. Take Kansas City! 

5* NFL - VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on Titans +10 -110

I love the value here with Tennessee as a double-digit dog against the Ravens. The betting public can't get enough of Lamar Jackson and Baltimore right now and I think the number here has been inflated to the point that this is a no-brainer on the Titans. 

Tennessee might have made it in as the No. 6 seed in the AFC, but this team likely would have won the AFC South had they started the season with Ryan Tannehill and not Marcus Mariota. Everyone likes to focus on what Derrick Henry is doing and it's hard to not get caught up that, but Tannehill has been outstanding for the Titans. 

No question the Patriots offense was broken, but New England's defense is the real deal and they had no answer for the 1-2 punch of Henry and Tannehill. As good as Baltimore was against the run, there's just no slowing down Henry. I think they are going to be able to shorten up the game and most importantly keep Jackson and that Ravens offense off the field. 

On the flip side of this, I think Tennessee has the defense to at least slow down Lamar Jackson and that high-powered Ravens run game. I think in doing so they can get Baltimore to press a little and really make this thing interesting. Give me the Titans +10! 

5* NFL - Seahawks/Eagles Wild Card VEGAS INSIDER on Seahawks/Eagles under 46 -110

I love the value here with the UNDER in Sunday's NFC Wild Card matchup between the Eagles and Seahawks. These two teams met up in Week 12 of the regular-season and the two combined for just 26 points in a 17-9 Seattle win at Philadelphia. 

It's hard to expect nearly double the offense in the rematch, especially with the problems both of these teams are facing offensively. Seattle's offensive line has been decimated with injuries and things got so bad at running back they had to bring back Marshawn Lynch. 

Eagles defense has played really well down the stretch and should continue that trend at home in this one. At the same time, Philadelphia's offense has been decimated with injuries and while Seattle's defense has struggled some down the stretch, they should be able to keep Wentz and the Eagles in check. 

UNDER is 15-5 in the Seahawks last 20 road games after a loss by 6 or less and 9-2 in their last 11 road games vs a NFC East team. UNDER is also 24-9 in Eagles last 33 home games and 7-0 in their last 7 at home off a division win. Take the UNDER! 

3*  NFL - Titans/Patriots Wild Card NO-BRAINER on Titans +5 -105

I like the value here with Tennessee in this one. I just think the perception a lot of people have is that now that it's the playoffs the Patriots are going to flip a switch and become this unbeatable team at home. 

I'm just not buying it. There's clearly something wrong with New England. For them to lose at home to the Dolphins in Week 17 with what was at stake, that says it all. Tom Brady and that offense are not anything close to what they use to be and as good as the defense is, they can only do so much. 

I think the Titans can pound Derrick Henry here as the New England defense is more built to stop the pass than it is the run and really make life miserable for Brady on the other side of the ball. Even if it's not enough to win the game, I don't see the Pats winning here by more than a field goal. Take Tennessee! 

3* NFL - Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE on Raiders +3½ -110

This is just too good a price to pass up with the Raiders. Oakland is the only team in this one with something to play for and I would have them favored in this one. Denver is getting a lot of love for winning 3 of their last 4, but I just haven't been all that impressed with them. They were down 10-0 at home to the Lions last week and needed two 4th quarter scores to cover as a touchdown favorite. 

Not the first time the Broncos have struggled with a bad team. They are just 13-28 ATS last 41 vs a team with a losing record and a mere 9-24 ATS last 33 times they have faced a marginal losing team like the Raiders with a win percentage of 40% to 49%. 

On top of that Denver is awful in the role of home favorite, as they are just 2-7 ATS last 9 times they have been asked to lay points at home. They are also a miserable 4-11 ATS last 15 division games and have failed to cover each of their last 4 meetings with the Raiders. Take Oakland! 

3* NFL - Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Titans/Texans under 46 -110

I really like the UNDER in Sunday's AFC South matchup between the Texans and Titans. I really think Houston is going to be going through the motions in this one. The only thing the Texans can do is move up from the No. 4 to the No. 3 seed, but chances are the Chiefs will beat the Chargers in the early slate of games and Houston will be locked into the No. 4. 

I could see the Texans either resting their starters or playing them for just a few series. There's just no incentive here for them to do anything special in this game. Offensively they are likely be very vanilla with a lot of runs and I could see them struggling to score more than 14. 

As for Tennessee they are in a must-win situation. Win and they are the No. 6 seed and in the playoffs. Lose and they are more than likely out. Titans are built for UNDERs. They are really good defensively and have an offense built around a power running game with Derrick Henry. 

UNDER is 6-0 in Houston's last 6 games vs good rushing teams that average 4.5 or more yards/carry. It's also 7-1 in their last 8 division games and 8-3 in their last 11 at home. Take the UNDER! 

5* NFL - NFC South TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Saints/Panthers under 47 -110

I absolutely love the UNDER 47 in Sunday's NFC South matchup between the Panthers and Saints. Carolina turned over the offense to rookie Will Grier last week and it couldn't have much worse. The Panthers managed 6 points and 286 total yards, failing to find the endzone. Grier was a respectable 27 of 44 for 224 yards, but threw 3 interceptions and was sacked 5 times. 

It's hard to imagine it going any better against the Saints on Sunday. That means the only way this game goes over this total is if New Orleans pops off for 30+ points and I just don't see that happening. If the Saints get any kind of comfortable lead they are going to become very conventional and really try to grind this thing out. 

New Orleans still has a shot at the No. 1 or No. 2 seed. However, this game only matters if they win and the Packers lose at Detroit (GB 12.5-point favorite). They can also get the No. 2 seed if the Seahawks beat the 49ers, but they don't have to win to get it, as they would own the tie-breaker. If GB and SF win they are No. 3. 

You can bet they will be paying close attention that the Packers score and if Green Bay gets up big, I wouldn't be shocked at all if they pulled several of their key players. Either way they aren't going to be trying to run up the score. 

UNDER is also 11-2 in New Orleans' last 13 games vs a team with a losing record and 12-4 in their last 16 trips to Carolina. Take the UNDER! 

5* NFL - Packers/Vikings NFC North PLAY OF THE MONTH on Packers/Vikings under 46 -110

I absolutely love the value here with the UNDER in this one. These two teams already played once this season and combined for a mere 37 points. I have a really hard time seeing them eclipsing that mark by a full 10 points. 

Green Bay's offense hasn't been nearly as good as their scoring average. Packers are 13th in scoring at 23.6 ppg yet are 22nd in total offense and rank in the bottom half of the league in both passing and rushing. Hard to see them figuring it out against a Vikings defense that is one of the best in the league and one that is giving up just 14.2 ppg at home. 

As for Minnesota's offense, they are really short handed here with their top two running backs, Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison both doubtful to play. Note that in that first game against Green Bay they had 198 yards rushing. Green Bay's defense is also playing really well at the moment. Packers have held each of their last 3 opponents to 15 or less. 

UNDER is a perfect 7-0 in the Vikings last 7 division home games and 7-0 in the Packers last 7 overall against a team from the NFC North. UNDER is also 10-2 in Minnesota's last 12 after a game where they scored 30 or more and 8-3 in Green Bay's last 11 vs a team with a winning record. Take the UNDER! 

4* NFL - Sharp Money ATS NO-BRAINER on Cardinals +9½ -105

The Cardinals are definitely worth a look here as a near double-digit dog at Seattle. The Seahawks have one of the best records in the NFL at 11-3, but I just think it has them way overvalued here against a feisty Arizona team that is coming off a 38-24 win against the Browns. 

The biggest thing for me with Seattle and fading them at this price is the simple fact that out of their 11 wins only 1 has come by more than 8 points. On top of that, Seahawks could have a tough time not looking ahead to next week's massive game against the 49ers. Win or lose, that game against San Francisco will be for the NFC West crown and possibly a first round bye in the playoffs. 

Arizona has been a smart play in games that are expected to be high scoring. Cardinals are a dominant 14-3 ATS last 17 games with a total of 49.5 or more. Arizona has also gone 43-26 ATS last 69 when revenging a same season loss and are 5-1-1 ATS last 7 as a road dog. Seahawks just 2-5 ATS last 7 as a home favorite. Take Arizona! 

5* NFL - Eagles/Cowboys NFC East GAME OF THE YEAR on Eagles +3 -115

I absolutely love the Eagles as a home dog against the Cowboys. I get Dallas has owned Philly of late and absolutely destroyed them 37-10 at home earlier this season, but there's just no way the Cowboys should be a road favorite with how they have been playing. 

Dallas comes off an impressive 44-21 win at home against the Rams, but I think some of that was LA suffering a bit of a letdown off their big win over the Seahawks and a huge game against division rival San Francisco on deck. Prior to that the Cowboys had lost 3 straight and I expect them to go right back to their losing ways. 

A big thing here is Dallas is going to have to try to win on the road with a less than 100% Dak Prescott under center. Prescott barely practiced at all this week as he's dealing with both a sore shoulder and a injury on one of his fingers on his throwing hand. 

Note that while the Eagles defense has struggled some of late, they have continued to be really good against the run. Philadelphia has held 6 of their last 7 opponents to 101 or fewer rushing yards and come in ranked 3rd against the run, allowing 90.4 ypg. With Prescott likely not at his best, it could be a real struggle here for the Cowboys offense. 

Also a great system in play favoring a fade of Dallas. Road teams with a line of +3 to -3 who are off an upset win by 14 or more as a home dog are just 7-29 (19%) ATS since 1983 if the game is after the 1st month of the season. Take Philadelphia! 

3* NFL - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Falcons -7 -110

I got no problem laying a touchdown here with Atlanta at home against the Jaguars. The Falcons clearly are motivated to finish this season strong. They have won 4 of their last 6 overall and are fresh off that shocking upset on the road against the 49ers. 

Jacksonville comes in off a win at Oakland, but with the way the Raiders have been playing it's hard to get excited about that. Prior to that the Jaguars had lost 5 straight all by 17 or more points. I'm confident Jacksonville will go right back to their losing ways in this one. 

Matt Ryan and the Falcons offense should be able to do as they please here. Atlanta comes in with the 4th ranked passing offense and Jacksonville's pass defense has regressed quite a bit down the stretch. Jags also are awful against the run, as they come in 29th, giving up 140.1 ypg. 

As for Jacksonville's offense, they have now gone 6 straight games scoring 20 or fewer points. In their last 3 games they have failed to rush for more than 90 yards and haven't thrown for more than 190. You just can't expect to be competitive on the road when you can't do anything offensively. Take Atlanta! 

3* NFL - Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR on Colts -6½ -110

The Colts are definitely worth a look here laying less than a touchdown at home against the Panthers. Indianapolis' playoff hopes came crashing to an end with an ugly 34-7 loss at new Orleans on Monday Night Football. 

You might think now is not the time to jump on the Colts given they no longer have a shot at the playoffs and are riding a 4-game skid, but I'm confident Indy is going to show up in their final home game. Also, the Panthers are a team that is in a complete free fall. Carolina has lost 6 straight and with 5 of the 6 losses by 8 or more. 

Things have got so bad with Panthers that they let Rivera go and now are turning to rookie Will Grier at quarterback. I'm not expecting much out of Grier in his first start, especially with it coming on the road.

On top of that, he's going to be asked to do too much with how bad the defense has been playing. Carolina has allowed 29 or more points in each of their last 5 games. They have allowed 150+ rushing yards in each of their last 3, which I think speaks volumes to just how bad things have got. Panthers are aos 0-7 ATS last 2 seasons in the second half vs a team with a losing record. Take Indianapolis! 

4* NFL - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Steelers -154

I'm confident the Steelers are going to go into New York and get a win over the Jets, which is why I'm just taking Pittsburgh on the money line. Pittsburgh is in playoff mode early, as the Steelers are in a position that if they win their last two games they are in the playoffs as the final Wild Card in the AFC. 

If that wasn't enough motivation, there's a little extra incentive for Pittsburgh's defense, as they will be going up against former Steeler Le'Veon Bell. Considering Bell basically quit on the team with last year's holdout, I think we see the Pittsburgh defense come out looking to make life miserable for Bell and that Jets offense. 

New York is 4-2 in their last 6 games, but it's not so much a result of them playing well as it is their schedule. Those 4 wins have come against the likes of the Giants, Redskins, Raiders and Dolphins.

I just don't see the Jets being able to score enough to pull off the upset. New York ranks 31st in total offense (274.1 ypg) and 28th in scoring (17.6 ppg). They also rank 30th in passing (196.6 ypg) and 31st in rushing (77.6 ypg). Take Pittsburgh! 

3* NFL - Texans/Bucs Over/Under ANNIHILATOR on Texans/Bucs over 50 -110

The OVER is definitely worth a look here in Saturday's first of 3 NFL games that has the Texans visiting the Bucs. I just don't think either side is going to be able to keep the other team from moving the football up and down the field. 

Houston comes in ranked 11th in the NFL in passing at 245.0 ypg and will be up against one of the worst secondaries in the NFL as the Bucs are 30th against the pass, allowing 276.8 ypg. Also, Texans are an even more potent offense when they got all 3 of their weapons on the outside in Hopkins, Stills and Fuller and all 3 are a go here. 

As for Tampa, the Bucs haven't had any problem racking up offensive numbers. Tampa Bay is 3rd in total offense (400.1 ypg) and 3rd in scoring (29.7 ppg). Jameis Winston continues to make too many mistakes, but when he isn't throwing to the other team he's carving up opponents no matter who he has at his disposal. He should be in store for another big game here against a Texans defense that ranks 28th against the pass, giving up 266.1 ypg.

OVER is 11-3 in Bucs games this year, including 4-1 at home. OVER is also 11-3 in Tampa's last 14 vs excellent passing teams and 6-0 vs awful pass defenses (allowing completion rate of 64% or better). Take the OVER! 

4* NFL - Colts/Saints MNF Vegas INSIDER on Colts/Saints over 46 -110

I love the value here with the OVER on Monday Night Football. New Orleans just seems to always deliver a big offensive performance when playing at home in prime time games and it's hard to see the Colts slowing down Drew Brees and that high-powered passing attack after Jameis Winston just torched the Indy defense for 467 yards and 4 TDs in their last game. Tampa Bay finished with 542 yards of total offense. Colts defense is much better suited to slow down run-first teams. 

The key here is I don't think New Orleans will be able to take their foot off the gas. The Saints defense has been really good for the most part this season, but a big reason for that is the play they were getting up front. Unfortunately for NO they just lost two studs from the defensive line to season ending injuries in defensive end Marcus Davenport and defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins. They also are dealing with some injuries at linebacker and in the secondary. 

OVER is 11-3 in the Saints last 14 games under head coach Sean Payton on Monday Night Football and 29-12 in their last 41 at home off a loss by 6 or less. OVER is also 15-3 in the Colts last 18 on the road after giving up 35 or more points in their last game. Take the OVER! 

4* NFL - SNF Over/Under Total DOMINATOR on Bills/Steelers under 36½ -110

Even when there's every reason to believe there's going to be little to no offense in a game, the betting public struggles to stomach an under with a total less than 40. I just can't help myself here, as this is just one of those games where both offenses are going to have a hard time just getting first downs. 

With all the injuries the Steelers have had on offense they really have leaned hard on their defense to win games and the stop unit has been up to the task. Pittsburgh has held each of their last 3 opponents to 17 or fewer. Buffalo has a little more offensive fire-power, but not much. Bills also want to win games with their defense. 

Buffalo comes in 3rd in the NFL in total defense (296.8 ypg) and the Steelers have the 28th ranked offense (290.1 ypg). Pittsburgh's stop unit is 5th in total defense (310.9 ypg) and the Bills are 20th in total offense (341.9 ypg). 

UNDER is 10-3 in the Bills 16 games this season and a perfect 6-0 in 2019 when they are listed as a dog. UNDER is also 11-3 in their last 14 on the road. UNDER is 10-3 in the Steelers 13 games this season, 12-4 in their last 16 off a cover and 7-0 in their last 7 after playing their previous game against a team from the NFC. Take the UNDER! 

5* NFL - Heavy Hitter PLAY OF THE MONTH on Chargers +3 -120

I absolutely love the value here with the Chargers as a home dog against the Vikings. LA might be just 5-8 on the season, but there's no denying the talent the Chargers have on both sides of the ball. As glim as their playoff hopes might be, this is a team that will continue to fight until they are officially out of it. 

Los Angeles snapped a 3-game skid last week with a 45-10 throttling of the Jaguars as a mere 3.5-point favorite. Chargers are also a team that could easily be sitting here with 10 wins had they caught a few more breaks. All 8 of LA's losses have come by 7-points or less with 4 of those by a field goal or fewer. 

Vikings are sitting at 9-4, but are just 2-3 on the road. This is a team that lost away from home to the Chiefs when Mahomes was sidelined, which I think speaks volumes to just how much more vulnerable they are away from home. 

Last week Minnesota beat the Lions at home, but failed to cover as 13.5-point favorite. That's worth noting, as the Vikings are a mere 7-20 ATS in their last 27 on the road off a win where they failed to cover as a favorite. Chargers are also 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog. Take Los Angeles! 

3* NFL - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE on Texans +3 -115

Most are going to look to lay the short number here with the Titans, as Tennessee comes in having won and covered in each of their last 4 games, while Houston just got embarrassed at home by the Broncos as a 8-point favorite. 

I'm not about to say the Titans aren't a good team, but I definitely don't trust them in this spot. I also think the Texans simply laid an egg last week against Denver after that massive home win over the Patriots. I fully expect Deshaun Watson and that Houston team to bounce back in a big way with 1st place in the AFC South on the line. 

Watson and the Texans have really thrived in the role of underdog. In games that Watson starts in which Houston is getting points, the Texans have gone 11-4 ATS, including an 8-3 ATS mark in this spot on the road. Houston is also 8-2-1 ATS last 11 off a game where they failed to cover and 6-1 ATS last 7 off a double-digit loss at home. 

Titans are just 16-33-3 ATS in their last 52 division games and just 4-11-1 ATS last 16 times they have been matched up against the Texans. Take Houston! 

3* NFL - Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Bears/Packers under 41 -110

These two managed to combine for just 13 points when they met up in Week 1 and neither offense had more than 255 total yards in the matchup. I would expect a little more offense in the rematch this Sunday, but I still don't see them approaching 40 points. 

Chicago's offense has come to life a little over the last couple of weeks, but there's little reason to be optimistic about them putting up a big number here. Mitch Trubisky is simply not playing at a high level and the Bears' lack of a running game really puts the entire offensive unit behind the 8-ball. 

While the offense continues to struggle for Chicago, the defense remains a strength and while the Packers have Aaron Rodgers, they have struggled to put up points against the better defenses they have faced. Even last week they only scored 20 points against the Redskins at home and that was them scoring 14 points in the 1st quarter. 

Add in just how familiar these two teams are with one another being division opponents and the fact the game will be played at wind chills in the single digits and it wouldn't surprise me if neither team scored 20 points. 

UNDER is 8-1 in the Bears last 9 games as road underdog, 6-1 in their last 7 division games and 9-2 in their last 11 games played in the month of December. UNDER is also 7-3 in the Packers last 10 vs a team with a winning record and 6-0 in their last 6 division games. Take the UNDER! 

4* NFL - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Patriots/Bengals over 41 -110

I like the value here with the OVER in Sunday's matchup that has the Patriots visiting the Bengals. I think we are getting a great number here with how New England's offense has struggle here of late. Patriots only managed 16 points at home last week against a Chiefs defense that isn't perceived to be very good and are averaging just 17 ppg in their last 4. 

The thing is, those 4 games were against some pretty good defensive teams. I wouldn't be surprised at all if they had one of their best offensive games of the season against a Bengals team that just gave up 27 points to a struggling Browns offense. 

As for Cincinnati's offense and how they will manage to score against this Patriots defense. It won't be easy, but the Bengals have looked a lot better on that side of the ball since going back to Andy Dalton. While they only managed 19 points last week against the Browns, they had 451 yards of total offense. If they can just put up like 17-20, which I think is very doable, this thing should fly past the number. 

OVER is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings between these two teams and 4-1 in the Bengals last 5 at home vs a team with a winning road record. OVER is also 10-1 in Cincinnati's last 11 at home vs elite pass defenses that are giving up 5.2 or less yards per attempt. Take the OVER! 

5* NFL - Jets/Ravens TNF VEGAS INSIDER on Jets +15 -110

I really like the value here with New York getting more than two touchdown against the Ravens. Baltimore has quickly become one of the biggest public plays in the league and with this being a prime time game the books have really inflated this one. 

The Jets might be out of the playoff picture, but they have continued to play hard and actually come in having won 4 of their last 5 games. This is a really good opportunity for New York to see just how far they come against one of the leagues best teams. I fully expect the Jets to give it their all in this one. 

It's not that I don't think Baltimore won't come to play, but I do think this is a tricky spot for the Ravens given their recent stretch of high-profile games. Lamar Jackson is going to play despite a quad injury, but  I don't think we see the same MVP type performance that we have go accustomed to. I can't imagine there will be a lot of designed runs for Jackson and as soon as Baltimore gets a comfortable lead they are going to look to just run the ball and get this game in the books. 

Another key here is the Jets defense and how it matches up with the Ravens high-powered run game. New York is one of the best in the league at stopping the run, as they come in No. 2 in the league, giving up just 78.8 ypg. I think they will be able to slow down Baltimore enough to keep this game close. Take New York! 

5* NFL - NFC EAST PLAY OF THE MONTH on Giants/Eagles under 45½ -109

I love the UNDER between the Eagles/Giants on Monday Night Football. I think a lot of people are going to look at this number and think it's way to low given how poorly New York's defense has played and the Eagles coming off a game where they gave up 37 points and over 400 yards of offense to the Dolphins. 

However, I don't see either team going off in this one. Eagles are perceived to be this great offense, but that just hasn't been the case in 2019. Giants are going to show up with one of their best efforts in this one, plus I think the conditions favor a low scoring game with rain expected throughout and winds approaching 15 mph. 

UNDER is 9-2 in the Eagles last 11 games after going OVER the total in their previous game, 13-4 in their last 17 at home with a total of 42.5 to 49 and 16-4 in their last 20 after scoring and allowing 30 points in their last game. Take the UNDER! 

4* NFL - RAMS/SEAHAWKS SNF ATS NO-BRAINER on Rams +1 -105

The Rams are definitely worth a look here at basically a pick'em on their home turf against the Seahawks on Sunday Night Football. Seattle has quickly went from a team not many people trusted to one of the biggest public plays on the board. 

Seahawks are 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games, which has created a ton of value here with the Rams. Even though LA is off an impressive 34-7 win at Arizona last week, the betting public can't get that ugly 45-6 loss to the Ravens on MNF a couple weeks back out of their head. 

I just think the key here is Goff and that LA offense should be able to move the ball against what I think is a pretty average Seattle defense. I also don't love the spot for the Seahawks, as they are coming off 3 huge games. They played at San Francisco, at Philadelphia and at home against the Vikings. Rams are out to make a statement in this one and I expect them to do just that. Take Los Angeles! 

3* NFL - Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Ravens/Bills under 44 -105

I don't see either offense being able to do a whole lot in this one. Baltimore's high-powered offensive attack had a difficult time moving the ball against a strong 49ers defense last week and I expect more of the same against a Bills defense that ranks No. 3 in the league in total defense. 

Buffalo's also well aware that their offense is not built for a shootout, so they are going to come out looking to play keep away from Lamar Jackson and try to grind out possessions with their running game. 

Another factor here for a low-scoring game is the conditions. Temps are expected to be in the mid 30's, but it's expected feel more like 25 degrees. There are also expected to be winds close to 17 mph. This should limit both teams ability to throw the ball, which means more clock getting eat up with all the run plays. 

UNDER is 15-6 in the Bills last 21 off a win, 13-5 in their last 18 as an underdog and perfect 7-0 in their last 7 with a total of 42.5 to 49. Take the UNDER! 

4* NFL - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Bills +6½ -107

I really like the value here with Buffalo catching close to a touchdown at home against the Ravens. I just think we are seeing Baltimore way overvalued right now, as the betting public just can't get enough of Lamar Jackson and this team. Hard to blame them given the Ravens have covered 5 of their last 6. They did however fail to cover as a 6-point favorite at home last week against the 49ers. 

I not only think they could fail to cover at Buffalo this Sunday, but I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if the Bills won this game outright. Buffalo is built for an offense like the Ravens and are going to be well-prepared for Jackson with the extra 3 days of prep they got this week after playing on Thanksgiving. 

I also don't love the spot at all for Baltimore, as they have been in 3 huge games the last 3 weeks against the Texans, Rams and 49ers. I just think they are going to struggle to match the intensity of the Bills and let's not overlook just how tough it is to win in Buffalo when they are playing well. 

Buffalo is 9-4 ATS with Josh Allen at QB as a dog, which includes a 3-1 ATS mark as a home dog. Ravens are just 5-12 ATS last 17 as a favorite and 1-5 ATS last 6 off a failed cover. Take Buffalo! 

5* NFL - NFC SOUTH PLAY OF THE YEAR on Falcons -3 -125

I love the value here with Atlanta laying just a field goal at home against the Panthers. I know a lot of times teams tend to respond with a big effort after their head coach gets canned, but I don't think there's a lot of fight left in this Carolina team. For a second straight year the Panthers have fell apart after a strong start. 

Last year the Panthers started out 6-2 only to lose 7 straight and end up finishing 7-9. This year they jumped out to a 4-2 record and are now 5-7 and are riding a 4-game losing streak. The most recent being an inexcusable home loss to the Redskins. 

Falcons might be just 3-9, but they have looked like a much better team over the last month and they absolutely destroyed Carolina on the road a few weeks back 29-3 as a 4.5-point dog. Atlanta is 4-1 ATS at home against the Panthers with Matt Ryan at QB. Panthers are 0-6 ATS last 6 in the 2nd half of the season vs a team with a losing record and 0-7 ATS in the 2nd half in their last 7 vs a team that's giving up 350+ yards/game. Take Atlanta! 

3* NFL - Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on 49ers/Ravens over 46 -110

This is a no-brainer for me. This is just too low a total for a game involving Lamar Jackson and this high-powered Ravens offense. Baltimore is averaging 35.1 ppg and I think the perception here is the strong front of the 49ers can make things difficult. I just don't think that will be the case. San Francisco has struggled against mobile quarterbacks and there's not a more elusive signal caller in the game than Jackson. 

On the flip side of this, the 49ers have a much better offense than they get credit for. San Francisco is putting up 30.2 ppg. I know the Ravens defense is coming off two excellent games against the Rams and Texans, but I don't think this defense is elite by any means.

OVER is 12-3 in the 49ers last 15 off 2 straight home wins by 10 or more points and 30-14 in their last 44 on the road after scoring 25 or more in 2 straight. OVER is 13-4 in the Ravens last 17 home games off a game on Monday Night Football. Take the OVER! 

3* NFL - Titans/Colts TOTAL WINNER on Titans/Colts under 43½ -110

I got a strong feeling on both the side and the total in Sunday's huge AFC South matchup between the Colts and Titans. I think we are getting an excellent price here on both Tennessee and the UNDER. 

The Titans have really come on strong in the second half of the season. Tennessee is 4-1 in their last 5. A big reason for their turnaround is the switch from Mariota to Tannehill at QB, as they now have an offense that can compliment their defense. With T.Y. Hilton not able to go for Indy, I just don't see the Colts being able to win this game. 

As for the UNDER, both of these teams want to play ball control with the run game and both defenses are built to stop the run. I just don't think there's going to be enough possessions for this to eclipse the mark. I expect something very similar to the first meeting that ended 19-17 with a combined total of 36. 

Titans are 4-1 ATS last 5 road games vs a team with a winning home record and the UNDER is 14-3 in the Colts last 17 vs a team with a winning record, 15-5 in their last 20 in the 2nd half of the season and 8-1 in the Titans last 9 on the road off a division game. Take the Titans & UNDER! 

4* NFL - Titans/Colts ATS WINNER on Titans +1½ -110

I got a strong feeling on both the side and the total in Sunday's huge AFC South matchup between the Colts and Titans. I think we are getting an excellent price here on both Tennessee and the UNDER. 

The Titans have really come on strong in the second half of the season. Tennessee is 4-1 in their last 5. A big reason for their turnaround is the switch from Mariota to Tannehill at QB, as they now have an offense that can compliment their defense. With T.Y. Hilton not able to go for Indy, I just don't see the Colts being able to win this game. 

As for the UNDER, both of these teams want to play ball control with the run game and both defenses are built to stop the run. I just don't think there's going to be enough possessions for this to eclipse the mark. I expect something very similar to the first meeting that ended 19-17 with a combined total of 36. 

Titans are 4-1 ATS last 5 road games vs a team with a winning home record and the UNDER is 14-3 in the Colts last 17 vs a team with a winning record, 15-5 in their last 20 in the 2nd half of the season and 8-1 in the Titans last 9 on the road off a division game. Take the Titans & UNDER! 

3* NFL - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Browns -2 -110

A lot of people are probably thinking the Steelers are the pissed off team after what went down in the previous meeting with Garrett swinging and hitting Pittsburgh QB Mason Rudolph with his own helmet. However, the Browns feel like Pittsburgh is the one that started it and now they want to finish it. 

The biggest thing here outside of all that is Cleveland is just the better team. They dominated the previous matchup in a 21-7 win. Pittsburgh's offense turned it over 4 times and have really struggled to score of late. It's so bad they are going to Devlin Hodges at quarterback. Hodges threw a 79 yard TD pass in the win over the Bengals last week. Take away that one big play and he was a mere 4 of 10 for 39 yards. Add in no Ju-Ju Smith-Schster and James Conner and NY simply doesn't have the talent offensively to win this game. 

Browns have won and covered 3 in a row and this recent surge has come after they played an absolutely brutal schedule early. I think they make a statement here by sweeping the Steelers and moving a step closer to locking in a Wild Card spot. 

Teams (Steelers) with a line of +3 to -3 that are revenging a loss of 14 or more with a winning pct. of 51% to 60% are a mere 13-36 (26%) ATS since 1983. Take Cleveland! 

5* NFL - Non-Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH on Bucs -1½ -110

I love the value here with the Bucs at basically a pick'em on the road against the Jaguars. It's pretty clear that Jacksonville has thrown in the towel on this season with the effort they have given in their last 3 games in blowout losses to the Texans (3-26), Colts (13-33) and Titans (20-42). 

The defense has been a huge disappointment and it really has went bad since they traded away Ramsey. It's not going to get any better on that side of the ball with the injuries the Jags are dealing with. safety Ronnie Harrison is out and linebacker Myles Jack isn't expected to play. On top of that they are facing a potent Bucs offense that is as good as any team when they don't turn it over. 

Bucs put up 35 last week at Atlanta and are 23-10 in their last 33 road games after putting up 30 or more points in their last game. Jags are 10-22 ATS last 32 at home after losing 3 of 4 and just 4-13 ATS last 2 seasons after the first month of the season. Take Tampa Bay! 

3* NFL - Saints/Falcons ATS DESTROYER on Falcons +7 -110

I really like the value here with the Falcons. Atlanta laid an egg last week at home against the Bucs after two dominating performances on the road against the Saints and Panthers. Everyone was against the Falcons in those two upset wins over New Orleans and Carolina. Most of those same people jumped on them last week against Tampa Bay and now want absolutely nothing to do with them after getting burned. 

I know the playoffs are no longer a realistic goal for Atlanta, but there's no doubt in my mind they will show up for this game with it being a prime time matchup on their home turf. It doesn't matter how bad they are, the Falcons always lay it all on the line against the Saints. 

You also just can't ignore what this Atlanta team was able to do just a few weeks ago when these two met up in New Orleans. They won convincingly 26-9 and held that high-powered Saints offense out of the endzone. I definitely could see NO offense struggling again, as they will be playing here without starting left tackle Terron Armstead and left guard Andrus Peat. Armstead was a 2nd-Team All-Pro and Peat is a Pro Bowler. 

I'm not saying the Saints won't get their revenge and win the game, but I expect a closely contested matchup that goes right down to the wire, making the Falcons an easy play at this price. Take Atlanta! 

3* NFL - Bills/Cowboys Total NO-BRAINER on Bills/Cowboys over 46 -109

Most will look at this matchup and have a hard time seeing these two going OVER the total, but that's exactly what I expect to happen. I think both of these offenses are better than they get credit for.

Cowboys should definitely have a better showing this week than they did last week against the Patriots. Dallas is averaging 30.2 ppg and 476 ypg at home. Key here is they should be able to get the running game going and when Zeke is moving the chains everything seems to click. 

As for the Cowboys defense, it's been pretty good, but it's far from great. Just two weeks ago they gave up 27 points to a Jeff Driskel led Lions offense. Buffalo is averaging 22.4 ppg and a respectable 368 ypg on the road and I think they can easily get to 20 points in this one. 

OVER is a strong 8-2 in the Cowboys last 10 off a loss and 9-4 in their last 13 at home. OVER is also 26-12 in the Bills last 38 after covering the spread in 3 straight games. 

OVER is 73-31 (70%) last 10 seasons when you have a total of 42.5 to 49 with a road team that is outscoring opponents by 4+ points/game and off a game where they gave up 3 or fewer points in the 1st half. Take the OVER! 

5* NFL - Bears/Lions NFC North PLAY OF THE YEAR on Bears -3 +100

I love the value here with Chicago laying just a field goal at Detroit on Thanksgiving Day. As ugly as it's been for Mitch Trubisky and that Bears offense, this is just too good a price to pass up. The Lions are on a free fall having lost 7 of 8. When you lose to Dwayne Haskins and the Redskins you know it's not good. 

Matthew Stafford is still a no go for Detroit and while Jeff Driskel will play, he's going to be at less than 100% after tweaking his hamstring against the Lions. You take away his mobility and you really make it tough on him against an elite Bears defense. 

I don't know that Trubisky can be saved from what we have seen, but he is coming off one of his better games against the Giants and did throw 3 touchdowns against this Detroit defense back in Week 10. 

One thing the Bears have done well is cover the number against their NFC North counterparts. Chicago is 9-1 ATS last 10 games vs division opponents. They have also covered 11 of their last 16 vs a team with a losing record. Detroit is just 2-6 ATS last 8 at home, 2-6 ATS last 8 vs a division foe and 0-6 ATS last 6 overall. Take Chicago! 

5* NFL - Ravens/Rams MNF VEGAS INSIDER on Rams +3½ -110

I love the value here with the Rams getting 3.5 at home against Baltimore. Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are the talk of the NFL right now and I think it has them way overvalued in this one. This not an easy spot for the Ravens going out west for a prime time game. Just look at how bad GB played in this spot last night against the 49ers. 

I know the Rams haven't been the team we thought we would see this year, but I think there's been a big overreaction with them. LA is not nearly as bad as perceived. I would have them favored, at worst a pick'em here. Rams offense hasn't been near the explosive unit as the last two years, but they have been banged up offensively and played a bunch of decent road teams. 

It's also no secret that Jared Goff is a different QB at home than on the road. He's got his full compliment of weapons at his disposal and the Ravens don't offer that great of a pass rush and if the gets time he can exploit you. 

Ravens are just 6-17 ATS last 23 on the road off a win by 21 or more. Rams are also a strong 11-4 ATS last 15 games, so it's clearly not all that bad in LA. Take Los Angeles! 

3* NFL - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Cowboys +6 -115

The Cowboys are definitely worth a look here as a near touchdown dog against the Patriots. New England was able to bounce back from that ugly loss to the Ravens with a 17-10 win at Philly last week, but that was not the kind of performance you would expect to see out of the Pats coming off their bye. 

The defense was sensational after a slow start, but the offense was far from impressive. Tom Brady is going to play, but he doesn't look 100%. They also got a lot of skill players and offensive linemen banged up right now. Dallas has the guys on defense to keep them in check. 

I also think Cowboys offense is the kind of offense that can have success against this Patriots defense. New England is built more to stop the pass than they are the run. I think Dallas can move the ball behind Zeke and keep this within one-score all the way. 

Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points who have won 75% or more of their games and come in having won 6/7 of their last 8 games are just 10-29 in the 2nd half of the season over the last 5 years. That's a 74% system in favor of the Cowboys. Take Dallas! 

4* NFL - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Broncos +4 +100

I like the value here with Denver getting more than a field goal against the Bills on Sunday. I just feel these are two teams with very misleading records. The Broncos are no where close to as bad as their 3-7 record would suggest. We saw that in last week's near upset of the Vikings on the road. They have 5 losses by just 1 score. 

As for the Bills, they are not as good as their 7-3 record. Buffalo has simply played a cupcake schedule to get to this point. The Bills 7 wins are against the Jets, Giants, Bengals, Titans, Dolphins (twice) and Redskins. Not a single one of those teams currently has a winning record and Tennessee (5-5) is the only one with more than 3 wins. 

Denver's offense isn't great, but it's looked a lot better without Joe Flacco in their Brandon Allen has played well and they don't need a great offense to win games, as they still have a top tier defense. With the limitations the Bills have on offense, I like the Broncos to win this game outright, but I'll take the points for insurance. Take Denver! 

4* NFL - Early Bird ATS HEAVY HITTER on Raiders -3 -110

Oakland is definitely worth a look here as a slim 3-point favorite against the Jets. For whatever reason this Raiders team just doesn't get the respect they deserve. If the season ended today, Oakland would be in as the final Wild Card and a win here puts them tied with the Chiefs for the top spot in the AFC West. 

The Jets are simply getting too much love after a couple of wins against a couple of bad NFC East teams in the Giants and Redskins. New York wasn't a very talented team to start with and are dealing with all kinds of injuries right now. I think the fact Oakland didn't play well last week against Cincinnati is also playing into the number, but that was a bit of a misleading final as they outgained the Bengals by 140 yards. 

Jets are a mere 2-7-1 ATS last 10 at home and 8-21 ATS in their last 29 games played in the month of November. Raiders aer 5-1 ATS last 6 off a game where they failed to cover. Take Oakland! 

3* NFL - Vegas Undervalued UNDERDOG on Bucs +4 -110

I like the value here with Tampa Bay getting more than a field goal against the Falcons. I know Atlanta has looked better of late with back-to-back blowout wins on the road against the Saints and Panthers, but I think it has them overvalued here against a Bucs team that is going to keep fighting despite their struggles. 

Division games are often closer than expected and that's definitely been the case of late with these two teams. Each of the last 3 meetings in the series have been decided by 5 or fewer points. 

Atlanta has also not been good in this spot. Falcons are just 3-12 ATS last 15 at home off a win by 10 or more against a division rival, 4-14 ATS last 18 after two straight games allowing 14 or fewer points and 14-34 ATS last 48 at home off two straight covers. Take Tampa Bay! 

5* NFL - NFC Over/Under TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Seahawks/Eagles under 47½ -110

Absolutely love the value here with the UNDER in Sunday's big NFC matchup between Seattle and Philadelphia. I just think the total here is based too much on how these two defenses played early on and not how they are playing right now. 

Seattle's defense looked as good as they had all season in their last game at San Francisco and I would expect that to carry over here, especially coming off their bye. I also don't think the Eagles offense is anything special. Philly has scored 22 or fewer in 4 of their last 5, including just 10 at home last week against the Patriots. 

Philadelphia defense has finally got healthy and it's shown. The Eagles have held each of their last 3 opponents to 17 or fewer points. They held the Bills to just 243 total yards, then held the Bears to 164 before limiting Tom Brady and the Pats to just 298 last week. 

There's also a good chance for strong winds in this game, which should have both teams running it a little more than they normally would. That should eat up some clock and have this thing well below the number. 

UNDER is 20-8 in Seattle's last 28 after scoring 25 or more in 3 straight games and 7-0 in the Eagles last 7 at home vs a team that's giving up 5.65 or more yards/play. Take the UNDER! 

4* NFL - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Patriots/Eagles under 45 -101

I like the value here with the UNDER in Sunday's Super Bowl rematch from two years ago, as the Eagles host the Patriots. I just think this is going to be a defensive struggle. I know New England's defense didn't look great in their last game against the Ravens. Some will say that's because they finally played a legit quarterback. Part of that is true. Lamar Jackson is an absolute nightmare to defend. He's the one guy that can still beat a defense even when they do everything right. 

Not to take anything away from Carson Wentz, but he just doesn't pose the same threat. Add in how motivated New England is going to be coming off that poor showing and that they have had two weeks to prepare off their bye, I expect them to return to that elite form we saw in their first 8 games.

As for the Patriots offense, I think some of the struggles we saw against the Ravens could linger on, especially on the road against a talented defense like the Eagles, which feels like it's getting better as the season progresses. 

Under is 16-5 in New England's last 21 road games when listed as a favorite and a perfect 6-0 in their last 6 off an upset loss as a road favorite. Eagles are also off a bye and the UNDER is 23-10 in their last 33 off a bye. It's also 9-2 in their last 11 at home vs a team with a winning road record. Take the UNDER! 

3* NFL - Over/Under Vegas LINE MISTAKE on Jets/Redskins under 38½ -102

Don't be scared away of the low total here. In fact, I think we are getting some decent value here with the UNDER at this price. The Jets 34-point outburst last week was simply a result of playing an awful Giants defense. The Redskins might be a bad team, but the defense has been more than respectable, especially given how much they are on the field. 

Washington's defense should also have one of it's better performances coming off of their bye and playing at home. Prior to going off against the other New York team, the Jets had topped 20 points just once in their first 8 games. 

Speaking of offenses that can't score. The Redskins have gone 7 straight games with 17 or fewer points and have failed to top 10 points in 5 of those games. It's not going to get any better with Dwayne Haskins at quarterback. He's just not ready, but at this point Washington really has nothing to lose throwing him out there. 

UNDER is 13-3 in the Redskins last 16 home games in the 2nd half of the season vs bad teams that are getting outscored by 6+ points/game. UNDER is also 20-8 in the Jets last 28 on the road in the 2nd half vs team that allow 350+ yards/game. Take the UNDER! 

5* NFL - AFC South PLAY OF THE MONTH on Jaguars +3 -120

Sure the Colts were without starting quarterback Jacoby Brissett in last week's ugly loss to the Dolphins, but they were still a 10-point favorite and lost outright. Even with Brissett back I see Indy struggling here against a rested and highly motivated Jaguars team coming off their bye. 

Jacksonville got embarrassed by the Texans in their last game and with that came the end of Minshew mania. Lucky for the Jags is they get back their starting QB in Nick Foles and I think he gives this team a big boost as they try to make a push for the playoffs. 

Another thing that I think gets overlooked with Indy's recent struggles is they haven't had TY Hilton. Colts are 5-1 in games Hilton plays with the only loss coming in OT. They are 0-3 without him and a big reason for that is defenses can creep up a little more and focus on not letting Indy get the running game going. 

Colts are just 9-21 ATS last 30 at home off a loss by 6 or less and 0-6-1 ATS last 7 vs a team with a losing record. Jags have gone 3-0-1 last 4 years off their bye and are 5-1 ATS last 6 vs another team from the AFC. Take Jacksonville! 

5* NFL - Steelers/Browns AFC North PLAY OF THE MONTH on Browns -2½ -119

The Browns cashed as a similarly priced 2.5-point favorite in this past Sunday's 19-16 win at Buffalo. While Cleveland did need a late score to get the win and cover, they could have put that game away early had they not turned it over on downs after having a 1st & Goal from the 1-yard line. 

Sometimes it's not about how you win and I think that's the case, as the Browns just needed something positive to happen. This is a much better team than their 3-6 record would suggest. On the flip side, I think this is a good spot to fade Pittsburgh after their big win at home over the Rams. I just don't think the Steelers are as good as their 5-4 record and these Thursday Night games are brutal on the road teams. 

Teams off an upset win as a home dog that are a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are just 3-22 (12%) ATS since 1983 in the 2nd half the season if facing a team with a losing record. Take Cleveland!