Sports Picks & Predictions

5* NO BRAINER on Chiefs/Saints over 52 -106

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Seahawks -4 -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Raiders -3 -114

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Ravens -2½ -115

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Falcons/Chargers over 49½ -107

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Patriots +6½ -115

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Ravens -7 -105

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Cowboys/Ravens over 45 -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Eagles +9 -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Seahawks/Eagles under 51 -106

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Dolphins/Jets under 45½ -106

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Eagles/Browns over 45 -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Cardinals +3 +101

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Cardinals/Seahawks under 57½ -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Vikings -2½ -114

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Browns -3 -104

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Texans -6½ -114

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Packers -4 -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Giants +12½ -109

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Colts -2½ -114

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Falcons +2½ -106

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Bears/Rams under 46½ -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Steelers -1½ -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Giants/Eagles under 45½ -119

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Cardinals/Cowboys over 54 -105

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* BEST BET on Ravens/Eagles under 46½ -109

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Saints -7½ -115

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Steelers -7 -109

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* Thursday Night Total of the Month on Bucs/Bears under 45½ -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Packers -6½ -105

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Cardinals/Panthers over 51 -109

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* MNF GOY on Ravens -3 -120

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Rams +2½ -115

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Jaguars -3 +105

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* BEST BET on Patriots +4½ -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* BEST BET on Ravens -7 -115

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* BEST BET on Chiefs -9 -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NFL - Super Bowl 54 (KC/SF) Total NO-BRAINER  on 49ers/Chiefs under 54½ -105

I'm confident we see Super Bowl 54 finish UNDER the mark. This will be the 7th time since 2000 that we have seen a total north of 50 in the Super Bowl and the UNDER has cashed in 5 of the previous 6. The only game that went OVER was Super Bowl 51 when the Patriots made that ridiculous comeback from down 28-3 to force OT and win 34-28. 

Just look at last year, everyone was calling for a shootout between the Rams and Patriots. The total for the game was 58 and it ended up being 13-3. I just think the number here is too high. Sure the Chiefs have the best QB in the league and all these weapons on offense, but they are going up against a really good 49ers defense. Also, San Francisco is a run heavy team and are going to try and limit the possessions of KC by chewing up the clock. 

Another big thing here is the Chiefs defense. Kansas City has really made remarkable strides on the defensive side of the ball. Not just from last year, but from earlier this season. KC's run defense gets a really bad wrap, but in their last 6 games they are giving up just 89 yards/game. Everyone thought Derrick Henry was going to run all over them and they held him to 69 yards on 19 attempts. 

Lastly, you got to factor in the edge these two defenses have with the two weeks to prepare for this game. There's just not a lot at this point that's not on tape for either offense, so both defense are going to be well prepared. I'm not saying it will be like last year, but the number is too high. Take the UNDER! 

5* NFL - Super Bowl 54 VEGAS INSIDER on Chiefs -120

I really like the Chiefs to come out on top in Super Bowl 54. I've been saying Kansas City was the team to beat for a while now and I actually think the number here should be closer to the Chiefs -3 than a pick'em. 

No disrespect to the 49ers, but I just think they are up against it here. No question who has the better quarterback in this game. Patrick Mahomes is the best QB in the league and he's arguably got the most talent around him. I get the 49ers defense is good, but beating the Vikings and Packers is not exactly saying much. Sure Green Bay has Rodgers, but just look at what Rodgers has to work with compared to Mahomes. 

I also don't know that the Chiefs defense is all that far off from San Francisco. They don't have the talent up front like the 49ers, but as a whole these two were actually more similar than you might think. In fact, the Chiefs gave up fewer points/game and played a tougher schedule in terms of offenses faced. 

Say what you want about Andy Reid and him not winning the big game, the guy is one of the best in the business when it comes to getting his team ready with an extra week to prepare. As a head coach his teams are 18-3 ATS in the regular-season and 5-1 ATS in the playoffs. I just think Mahomes and that offense will be too much for SF to overcome. Take Kansas City! 

5* NFL - Packers/49ers NFC GAME OF THE YEAR on 49ers -7 -109

I love the value here with the 49ers at home in the NFC Championship Game. As much respect as I have for Aaron Rodgers, San Francisco is simply better on both sides of the ball and I just don't see Green Bay being able to keep this close on the road. 

These two teams played in the regular-season at San Francisco and the 49ers led 23-0 at the half and would go on to win 37-8 with a 339 to 188 edge in total yards. SF not only limited Aaron Jones to just 38 yards on 13 attempts (2.9 yards/carry), they held Rodgers to mere 104 passing yards and sacked him 5 times. 

When healthy this 49ers defense has been the best in the league and with the returns of Kwon Alexander and Dee Ford in the Divisional Round, they are back to near full strength. When these two have been on the field there's just not a lot teams can do. I'm sure Green Bay will make some adjustments, but I don't think there's anything they can do to make up 25-points. I think it would take a near perfect game just for them to keep this within single digits and that's unlikely to happen. Take San Francisco! 

5* NFL Divisional Round PLAY OF THE YEAR on Chiefs -9½ -110

I got no problem laying the big number with Kansas City on Sunday at home against the Texans. I think a lot of people will be drawn to Houston here, simply because Houston won at Kansas City earlier this season. Thing is, the Chiefs were up 17-3 in that game and this is really a different team than when they met back in Week 6. Most notably on the defensive side of the ball. 

Another common thought process for people is that Andy Reid is not a good coach in big games and while he's had his fair share of failures in the playoffs, you simply don't bet against him when he's got two weeks to prepare for an opponent. He's 18-3 ATS off a bye in the regular-season and 4-1 ATS off a bye in the playoffs. 

I think this Chiefs offense has been holding back a lot of things for the playoffs and this Texans defense is one they can exploit. Houston finished with the 29th ranked pass defense, giving up 267.3 ypg. Mahomes will have a field day and that much improved Chiefs defense will do their part behind an electric home crowd. Take Kansas City! 

5* NFL - VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on Titans +10 -110

I love the value here with Tennessee as a double-digit dog against the Ravens. The betting public can't get enough of Lamar Jackson and Baltimore right now and I think the number here has been inflated to the point that this is a no-brainer on the Titans. 

Tennessee might have made it in as the No. 6 seed in the AFC, but this team likely would have won the AFC South had they started the season with Ryan Tannehill and not Marcus Mariota. Everyone likes to focus on what Derrick Henry is doing and it's hard to not get caught up that, but Tannehill has been outstanding for the Titans. 

No question the Patriots offense was broken, but New England's defense is the real deal and they had no answer for the 1-2 punch of Henry and Tannehill. As good as Baltimore was against the run, there's just no slowing down Henry. I think they are going to be able to shorten up the game and most importantly keep Jackson and that Ravens offense off the field. 

On the flip side of this, I think Tennessee has the defense to at least slow down Lamar Jackson and that high-powered Ravens run game. I think in doing so they can get Baltimore to press a little and really make this thing interesting. Give me the Titans +10! 

5* NFL - Seahawks/Eagles Wild Card VEGAS INSIDER on Seahawks/Eagles under 46 -110

I love the value here with the UNDER in Sunday's NFC Wild Card matchup between the Eagles and Seahawks. These two teams met up in Week 12 of the regular-season and the two combined for just 26 points in a 17-9 Seattle win at Philadelphia. 

It's hard to expect nearly double the offense in the rematch, especially with the problems both of these teams are facing offensively. Seattle's offensive line has been decimated with injuries and things got so bad at running back they had to bring back Marshawn Lynch. 

Eagles defense has played really well down the stretch and should continue that trend at home in this one. At the same time, Philadelphia's offense has been decimated with injuries and while Seattle's defense has struggled some down the stretch, they should be able to keep Wentz and the Eagles in check. 

UNDER is 15-5 in the Seahawks last 20 road games after a loss by 6 or less and 9-2 in their last 11 road games vs a NFC East team. UNDER is also 24-9 in Eagles last 33 home games and 7-0 in their last 7 at home off a division win. Take the UNDER! 

5* NFL - NFC South TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Saints/Panthers under 47 -110

I absolutely love the UNDER 47 in Sunday's NFC South matchup between the Panthers and Saints. Carolina turned over the offense to rookie Will Grier last week and it couldn't have much worse. The Panthers managed 6 points and 286 total yards, failing to find the endzone. Grier was a respectable 27 of 44 for 224 yards, but threw 3 interceptions and was sacked 5 times. 

It's hard to imagine it going any better against the Saints on Sunday. That means the only way this game goes over this total is if New Orleans pops off for 30+ points and I just don't see that happening. If the Saints get any kind of comfortable lead they are going to become very conventional and really try to grind this thing out. 

New Orleans still has a shot at the No. 1 or No. 2 seed. However, this game only matters if they win and the Packers lose at Detroit (GB 12.5-point favorite). They can also get the No. 2 seed if the Seahawks beat the 49ers, but they don't have to win to get it, as they would own the tie-breaker. If GB and SF win they are No. 3. 

You can bet they will be paying close attention that the Packers score and if Green Bay gets up big, I wouldn't be shocked at all if they pulled several of their key players. Either way they aren't going to be trying to run up the score. 

UNDER is also 11-2 in New Orleans' last 13 games vs a team with a losing record and 12-4 in their last 16 trips to Carolina. Take the UNDER! 

5* NFL - Packers/Vikings NFC North PLAY OF THE MONTH on Packers/Vikings under 46 -110

I absolutely love the value here with the UNDER in this one. These two teams already played once this season and combined for a mere 37 points. I have a really hard time seeing them eclipsing that mark by a full 10 points. 

Green Bay's offense hasn't been nearly as good as their scoring average. Packers are 13th in scoring at 23.6 ppg yet are 22nd in total offense and rank in the bottom half of the league in both passing and rushing. Hard to see them figuring it out against a Vikings defense that is one of the best in the league and one that is giving up just 14.2 ppg at home. 

As for Minnesota's offense, they are really short handed here with their top two running backs, Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison both doubtful to play. Note that in that first game against Green Bay they had 198 yards rushing. Green Bay's defense is also playing really well at the moment. Packers have held each of their last 3 opponents to 15 or less. 

UNDER is a perfect 7-0 in the Vikings last 7 division home games and 7-0 in the Packers last 7 overall against a team from the NFC North. UNDER is also 10-2 in Minnesota's last 12 after a game where they scored 30 or more and 8-3 in Green Bay's last 11 vs a team with a winning record. Take the UNDER! 

5* NFL - Eagles/Cowboys NFC East GAME OF THE YEAR on Eagles +3 -115

I absolutely love the Eagles as a home dog against the Cowboys. I get Dallas has owned Philly of late and absolutely destroyed them 37-10 at home earlier this season, but there's just no way the Cowboys should be a road favorite with how they have been playing. 

Dallas comes off an impressive 44-21 win at home against the Rams, but I think some of that was LA suffering a bit of a letdown off their big win over the Seahawks and a huge game against division rival San Francisco on deck. Prior to that the Cowboys had lost 3 straight and I expect them to go right back to their losing ways. 

A big thing here is Dallas is going to have to try to win on the road with a less than 100% Dak Prescott under center. Prescott barely practiced at all this week as he's dealing with both a sore shoulder and a injury on one of his fingers on his throwing hand. 

Note that while the Eagles defense has struggled some of late, they have continued to be really good against the run. Philadelphia has held 6 of their last 7 opponents to 101 or fewer rushing yards and come in ranked 3rd against the run, allowing 90.4 ypg. With Prescott likely not at his best, it could be a real struggle here for the Cowboys offense. 

Also a great system in play favoring a fade of Dallas. Road teams with a line of +3 to -3 who are off an upset win by 14 or more as a home dog are just 7-29 (19%) ATS since 1983 if the game is after the 1st month of the season. Take Philadelphia! 

5* NFL - Heavy Hitter PLAY OF THE MONTH on Chargers +3 -120

I absolutely love the value here with the Chargers as a home dog against the Vikings. LA might be just 5-8 on the season, but there's no denying the talent the Chargers have on both sides of the ball. As glim as their playoff hopes might be, this is a team that will continue to fight until they are officially out of it. 

Los Angeles snapped a 3-game skid last week with a 45-10 throttling of the Jaguars as a mere 3.5-point favorite. Chargers are also a team that could easily be sitting here with 10 wins had they caught a few more breaks. All 8 of LA's losses have come by 7-points or less with 4 of those by a field goal or fewer. 

Vikings are sitting at 9-4, but are just 2-3 on the road. This is a team that lost away from home to the Chiefs when Mahomes was sidelined, which I think speaks volumes to just how much more vulnerable they are away from home. 

Last week Minnesota beat the Lions at home, but failed to cover as 13.5-point favorite. That's worth noting, as the Vikings are a mere 7-20 ATS in their last 27 on the road off a win where they failed to cover as a favorite. Chargers are also 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog. Take Los Angeles! 

5* NFL - Jets/Ravens TNF VEGAS INSIDER on Jets +15 -110

I really like the value here with New York getting more than two touchdown against the Ravens. Baltimore has quickly become one of the biggest public plays in the league and with this being a prime time game the books have really inflated this one. 

The Jets might be out of the playoff picture, but they have continued to play hard and actually come in having won 4 of their last 5 games. This is a really good opportunity for New York to see just how far they come against one of the leagues best teams. I fully expect the Jets to give it their all in this one. 

It's not that I don't think Baltimore won't come to play, but I do think this is a tricky spot for the Ravens given their recent stretch of high-profile games. Lamar Jackson is going to play despite a quad injury, but  I don't think we see the same MVP type performance that we have go accustomed to. I can't imagine there will be a lot of designed runs for Jackson and as soon as Baltimore gets a comfortable lead they are going to look to just run the ball and get this game in the books. 

Another key here is the Jets defense and how it matches up with the Ravens high-powered run game. New York is one of the best in the league at stopping the run, as they come in No. 2 in the league, giving up just 78.8 ypg. I think they will be able to slow down Baltimore enough to keep this game close. Take New York! 

5* NFL - NFC EAST PLAY OF THE MONTH on Giants/Eagles under 45½ -109

I love the UNDER between the Eagles/Giants on Monday Night Football. I think a lot of people are going to look at this number and think it's way to low given how poorly New York's defense has played and the Eagles coming off a game where they gave up 37 points and over 400 yards of offense to the Dolphins. 

However, I don't see either team going off in this one. Eagles are perceived to be this great offense, but that just hasn't been the case in 2019. Giants are going to show up with one of their best efforts in this one, plus I think the conditions favor a low scoring game with rain expected throughout and winds approaching 15 mph. 

UNDER is 9-2 in the Eagles last 11 games after going OVER the total in their previous game, 13-4 in their last 17 at home with a total of 42.5 to 49 and 16-4 in their last 20 after scoring and allowing 30 points in their last game. Take the UNDER! 

5* NFL - NFC SOUTH PLAY OF THE YEAR on Falcons -3 -125

I love the value here with Atlanta laying just a field goal at home against the Panthers. I know a lot of times teams tend to respond with a big effort after their head coach gets canned, but I don't think there's a lot of fight left in this Carolina team. For a second straight year the Panthers have fell apart after a strong start. 

Last year the Panthers started out 6-2 only to lose 7 straight and end up finishing 7-9. This year they jumped out to a 4-2 record and are now 5-7 and are riding a 4-game losing streak. The most recent being an inexcusable home loss to the Redskins. 

Falcons might be just 3-9, but they have looked like a much better team over the last month and they absolutely destroyed Carolina on the road a few weeks back 29-3 as a 4.5-point dog. Atlanta is 4-1 ATS at home against the Panthers with Matt Ryan at QB. Panthers are 0-6 ATS last 6 in the 2nd half of the season vs a team with a losing record and 0-7 ATS in the 2nd half in their last 7 vs a team that's giving up 350+ yards/game. Take Atlanta! 

5* NFL - Non-Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH on Bucs -1½ -110

I love the value here with the Bucs at basically a pick'em on the road against the Jaguars. It's pretty clear that Jacksonville has thrown in the towel on this season with the effort they have given in their last 3 games in blowout losses to the Texans (3-26), Colts (13-33) and Titans (20-42). 

The defense has been a huge disappointment and it really has went bad since they traded away Ramsey. It's not going to get any better on that side of the ball with the injuries the Jags are dealing with. safety Ronnie Harrison is out and linebacker Myles Jack isn't expected to play. On top of that they are facing a potent Bucs offense that is as good as any team when they don't turn it over. 

Bucs put up 35 last week at Atlanta and are 23-10 in their last 33 road games after putting up 30 or more points in their last game. Jags are 10-22 ATS last 32 at home after losing 3 of 4 and just 4-13 ATS last 2 seasons after the first month of the season. Take Tampa Bay! 

5* NFL - Bears/Lions NFC North PLAY OF THE YEAR on Bears -3 +100

I love the value here with Chicago laying just a field goal at Detroit on Thanksgiving Day. As ugly as it's been for Mitch Trubisky and that Bears offense, this is just too good a price to pass up. The Lions are on a free fall having lost 7 of 8. When you lose to Dwayne Haskins and the Redskins you know it's not good. 

Matthew Stafford is still a no go for Detroit and while Jeff Driskel will play, he's going to be at less than 100% after tweaking his hamstring against the Lions. You take away his mobility and you really make it tough on him against an elite Bears defense. 

I don't know that Trubisky can be saved from what we have seen, but he is coming off one of his better games against the Giants and did throw 3 touchdowns against this Detroit defense back in Week 10. 

One thing the Bears have done well is cover the number against their NFC North counterparts. Chicago is 9-1 ATS last 10 games vs division opponents. They have also covered 11 of their last 16 vs a team with a losing record. Detroit is just 2-6 ATS last 8 at home, 2-6 ATS last 8 vs a division foe and 0-6 ATS last 6 overall. Take Chicago! 

5* NFL - Ravens/Rams MNF VEGAS INSIDER on Rams +3½ -110

I love the value here with the Rams getting 3.5 at home against Baltimore. Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are the talk of the NFL right now and I think it has them way overvalued in this one. This not an easy spot for the Ravens going out west for a prime time game. Just look at how bad GB played in this spot last night against the 49ers. 

I know the Rams haven't been the team we thought we would see this year, but I think there's been a big overreaction with them. LA is not nearly as bad as perceived. I would have them favored, at worst a pick'em here. Rams offense hasn't been near the explosive unit as the last two years, but they have been banged up offensively and played a bunch of decent road teams. 

It's also no secret that Jared Goff is a different QB at home than on the road. He's got his full compliment of weapons at his disposal and the Ravens don't offer that great of a pass rush and if the gets time he can exploit you. 

Ravens are just 6-17 ATS last 23 on the road off a win by 21 or more. Rams are also a strong 11-4 ATS last 15 games, so it's clearly not all that bad in LA. Take Los Angeles! 

5* NFL - NFC Over/Under TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Seahawks/Eagles under 47½ -110

Absolutely love the value here with the UNDER in Sunday's big NFC matchup between Seattle and Philadelphia. I just think the total here is based too much on how these two defenses played early on and not how they are playing right now. 

Seattle's defense looked as good as they had all season in their last game at San Francisco and I would expect that to carry over here, especially coming off their bye. I also don't think the Eagles offense is anything special. Philly has scored 22 or fewer in 4 of their last 5, including just 10 at home last week against the Patriots. 

Philadelphia defense has finally got healthy and it's shown. The Eagles have held each of their last 3 opponents to 17 or fewer points. They held the Bills to just 243 total yards, then held the Bears to 164 before limiting Tom Brady and the Pats to just 298 last week. 

There's also a good chance for strong winds in this game, which should have both teams running it a little more than they normally would. That should eat up some clock and have this thing well below the number. 

UNDER is 20-8 in Seattle's last 28 after scoring 25 or more in 3 straight games and 7-0 in the Eagles last 7 at home vs a team that's giving up 5.65 or more yards/play. Take the UNDER! 

5* NFL - AFC South PLAY OF THE MONTH on Jaguars +3 -120

Sure the Colts were without starting quarterback Jacoby Brissett in last week's ugly loss to the Dolphins, but they were still a 10-point favorite and lost outright. Even with Brissett back I see Indy struggling here against a rested and highly motivated Jaguars team coming off their bye. 

Jacksonville got embarrassed by the Texans in their last game and with that came the end of Minshew mania. Lucky for the Jags is they get back their starting QB in Nick Foles and I think he gives this team a big boost as they try to make a push for the playoffs. 

Another thing that I think gets overlooked with Indy's recent struggles is they haven't had TY Hilton. Colts are 5-1 in games Hilton plays with the only loss coming in OT. They are 0-3 without him and a big reason for that is defenses can creep up a little more and focus on not letting Indy get the running game going. 

Colts are just 9-21 ATS last 30 at home off a loss by 6 or less and 0-6-1 ATS last 7 vs a team with a losing record. Jags have gone 3-0-1 last 4 years off their bye and are 5-1 ATS last 6 vs another team from the AFC. Take Jacksonville! 

5* NFL - Steelers/Browns AFC North PLAY OF THE MONTH on Browns -2½ -119

The Browns cashed as a similarly priced 2.5-point favorite in this past Sunday's 19-16 win at Buffalo. While Cleveland did need a late score to get the win and cover, they could have put that game away early had they not turned it over on downs after having a 1st & Goal from the 1-yard line. 

Sometimes it's not about how you win and I think that's the case, as the Browns just needed something positive to happen. This is a much better team than their 3-6 record would suggest. On the flip side, I think this is a good spot to fade Pittsburgh after their big win at home over the Rams. I just don't think the Steelers are as good as their 5-4 record and these Thursday Night games are brutal on the road teams. 

Teams off an upset win as a home dog that are a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are just 3-22 (12%) ATS since 1983 in the 2nd half the season if facing a team with a losing record. Take Cleveland! 

5* NFL - Seahawks/49ers NFC West TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Seahawks/49ers over 47 -109

I look for these two teams to easily combine for at least 50 points an cover the total set by the books. Everyone likes to talk about the 49ers defense and rightfully so, but SF is averaging an impressive 35.3 ppg. That offense will be without George Kittle tonight, but they are getting back left tackle Joe Staley and fullback Kyle Juszczyk. 

I look for San Francisco to run the ball at will here and that's going to open up the opportunities for some big passing plays. I think the 49ers will easily score 30+ points here against a Seattle defense that has allowed 28 or more in 4 of their last 5. That means all we need is for the Seahawks to score around 18-20 to have us safely over the mark. I'm pretty confident Russell Wilson and that group can give us that. 

OVER is 41-18 in the Seahawks last 59 vs strong defensive teams that are giving up 17 or less points/game and 6-0 in their last 6 vs strong rushing teams that average 4.5+ yards/carry. OVER has also cashed in 4 of San Fran's last 5 division games and 8 out of their last 11 vs a team with a winning record. Take the OVER! 

5* NFL - Cowboys/Giants MNF ATS HEAVY HITTER on Giants +7 -115

I love the value here with New York getting a TD at home against the Cowboys. No question this line is inflated in favor of Dallas, as they are a massive public team and the Giants are one of the worst teams in the league right now at 2-6. 

Dallas also getting a ton due to the fact that they went into their bye off a dominating 37-10 win at home over the Eagles and due to the fact they whooped the Giants at home 35-17 in Week 1. Thing is that was with Eli Manning at quarterback and without their top wide out Golden Tate. Daniel Jones is definitely an upgrade of Eli and I think this offense will be able to do enough to cover this spread. 

Cowboys are just 6-16 ATS last 22 road game soff a home win by 21 or more points and the Giants are a dominant 17-3 ATS last 20 after giving up 17 or more points in the 1st half of 2 straight games. Take New York! 

5* NFL- Pats/Ravens SNF PLAY OF THE MONTH on Ravens +3½ -115

I know the Patriots have looked unbeatable threw the first half of the season, but you just can't ignore how easy the schedule has been. Their last 7 games have come against the Browns, Jets, Giants, Redskins, Bills, Jets and Dolphins. Buffalo is the only one of those teams with a winning record.

Note that while they beat the Bills 16-10, they should have probably lost. Buffalo had a 375 to 224 edge in total yards and 23 first downs to the Pats 11. This Ravens team is the best that NE will have seen all season. Lamar Jackson's ability to make plays with his legs is the one thing you can't defend for and I think we see the NE defense struggle for the first time this season. Also, big edge playing at home in a prime time game like this. 

Road favorites who are outscoring opponents by 10+ ppg are just 18-52 (26%) ATS over the last 10 seasons when coming off a win by 10 or more. Take Baltimore!

5* NFL - 49ers/Cardinals TNF ATS NO-BRAINER on 49ers -10 -109

Usually I wouldn't lay a big number like this on the road in a division matchup, but I just think the 49ers are going to win here easily. This San Francisco defensive front is unreal and are making it near impossible for opposing teams to throw on them. 49ers rank No. 1 in pass defense, giving up a ridiculous 128.7 ypg. 

Arizona is down starting running back David Johnson and backup Chase Edmonds, which forced them to make a trade with the Dolphins for Kenyan Drake. I don't see the Cardinals being able to have the kind of success running the ball needed to keep this 49ers defense honest. 

Last week the Cardinals had just 40 rushing yards and 197 passing yards against a good Saints defense. 49ers should score into the 20's here and easily win this game by 14-plus points. Take San Francisco! 

5* NFL - Vegas Insider PLAY OF THE YEAR on Packers -4 -105

No reason to overthink this one. This is too good a price to pass up with Green Bay given the circumstances. Kansas City will not have the reigning MVP in Patrick Mahomes and if you watched the offense last week with Matt Moore after Mahomes went down, it's night and day. I get we are seeing almost a 7-point swing with Mahomes out, but I feel he's worth more than that. 

It's also not just Mahomes that the Chiefs are missing. They are unlikely to have star defensive tackle Chris Jones, corner Kendall Fuller and edge rusher Frank Clark. I get the defense played well against the Broncos, but Denver's offense is a complete mess with how bad Flacco is playing. 

I don't see the Chiefs defense being able to slow down Aaron Rodgers on Sunday and I could see this getting out of hand early. It just feels like a throw away game for KC with Mahomes out. Take Green Bay! 

5* NFL - Saints/Bears NFC PLAY OF THE MONTH on Bears -3 -120

It's been an impressive run for New Orleans behind Teddy Bridgewater while Drew Brees recovers from a thumb injury, but I don't see the Saints winning in Chicago on Sunday. While they have been winning games, it's not because Bridgewater is lighting up defenses. 

He certainly isn't going to light up this Bears defense, which is No. 6 in total defense and No. 3 in scoring defense. Making matters even worse, New Orleans will be without star running back Alvin Kamara. 

Bears will be getting Trubisky back from injury and I think we are going to see a little more offense out of Chicago out of the bye week. Bears are a lot closer to being 5-0 than they get credit for. They are 7-0-1 ATS last 8 at home vs a team with a winning road record and are 12-4 ATS last 16 vs other NFC teams. Take Chicago! 

5* NFL - Non-Conf TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Redskins/Dolphins under 42 -104

I love the UNDER in Week 6's matchup between two of the worst teams in the league. You got the 0-5 Redskins facing off against the 0-4 Dolphins. While both of these defenses have given up a lot of points, these are two horrible offensive teams. 

Miami comes in averaging 6.5 ppg and 225 ypg. The Redskins aren't that much better at 14.6 ppg and 281 ypg. Key here is I think we get a big effort here defensively from both teams as both know this is going to be one of their rare opportunities for a win in 2019. I also think we get a big effort from the Dolphins coming off a bye and Washington should play harder than normal after watching their head coach get fired. 

UNDER is 31-16 in the Redskins last 47 games off a road loss by 10 or more and 8-1 in their last 9 when off a loss of 14 or more. UNDER is also a perfect 7-0 in the Dolphins last 7 off a loss by 14 or more. Take the UNDER! 

5* NFL - Non-Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH on Bengals -3 -110

Cincinnati is worth a look here as a mere 3-point home favorite. Even though these are two bad teams, I see a lot of value with the Bengals only needing to win by a field goal. Cincinnati is 0-4, but they have also played a brutal schedule with 3 of their first 4 on the road. Two of those against 1-loss teams in the Seahawks and Bills, the other at Pittsburgh on MNF. The lone home game was against the 49ers, who are undefeated. 

Arizona is definitely not a team you want to be trusting on the road. Rookie quarterback Kyler Murray is struggling. Cardinals have scored 20 or fewer in each of their last 3. They had 27 in the opener, but they were down 24-6 in the 4th quarter. Outside of a 10-minute window in that 4th quarter, the offense hasn't showed us anything. 

I know the numbers aren't great for the Bengals defense, but they were more than solid in the two games against the Bills and Seahawks. They also should have won in Seattle week 1. I think they play well here. As for the offense, I think they score early and often in this one. Take Cincinnati! 

5* NFL - Bears/Raiders Late Info ATS NO-BRAINER on Bears -5½ -110

This game is being played in London and I think even with Trubisky out for Chicago this is an ideal spot to fade the Raiders. Given how bad the Bears offense has looked and the Raiders off an impressive 31-24 win at Indy the public might be tempted to play Oakland. 

What they are going to overlook is this being the 3rd straight road game for the Raiders and just how hard this is for NFL teams. Not to mention we saw how much Oakland's offense struggled against a good Vikings defense a couple weeks ago. Chicago's defense looks like the best in the league. Bears are allowing 11.2 ppg, holding teams almost 8-points under their average. Raiders only average 19.7 ppg and give up 25.5 ppg. Look for Chase Daniel to get the Bears offense going in this one. Take Chicago! 

5* NFL - NFC West (LAR/SEA) PLAY OF THE MONTH on Seahawks -115

Absolutely love the value here with the Seahawks and with the spread so low I would just take Seattle on the money line. I just think the Seahawks are flying a bit under the radar right now because they haven't really had a signature win in 2019. Either way they are 3-1 and are now 9-2 over their last 11 regular-season games dating back to last season. 

They are at a big advantage here playing at home on just 3-days of rest, they also had a much less stressful game this past Sunday. Seahawks coasted to a 27-10 win over Arizona, while Rams were playing from behind all game in a 40-55 loss at home to the Bucs. 

Jameis Winston threw all over the Rams secondary and I think Russell Wilson has looked as good as ever in 2019. I think he has a big game in this one. 

This is also not just another game for Seattle, as they were swept by LA in last year's two meetings and have lost 3 in a row overall. They want revenge and this is simply not the same caliber a Rams team as the one that made the SB last year. 

Seahawks are a dominant 7-0-2 ATS last 9 Thursday games and have covered 8 of their last 12 vs a NFC opponent. Rams 1-5 ATS last 6 Thursday games. Take Seattle! 

5* NFL - Monday Night Football TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Bengals/Steelers over 43½ -110

Big time value here with the OVER at this price. While there's some big names missing on the offensive side of the ball for both teams, there's more than enough talent to score on the two defenses that will be playing. 

Steelers are giving up 28.3 ppg and have struggled against both the run and the pass. Teams are averaging 139 ypg on the ground and 303 through the air with 8.7 yards/completion. Bengals are allowing 27.7 ppg. They are giving up 169 rushing yards/game and while they are only giving up 238 ypg thru the air, they too are allowing 8.7 yards/completion. Teams are averaging 6.4 yards/play against the Steelers and 6.6 yards/play against the Bengals. 

OVER is 12-4 in the Steelers last 16 home games and 7-2-1 in the Bengals last 10 vs a division opponent. Take the OVER! 

5* NFL - Sunday Night Football GAME OF THE MONTH on Saints +130

Forget the points, the Saints should not be a home dog to the Cowboys. I'm backing them on the money line. New Orleans is getting no love in this matchup because Drew Brees is out and the public is in love with the 3-0 Cowboys. It only makes me like the Saints more with this line begging the public to take Dallas laying less than a field goal. 

Teddy Bridgewater doesn't bring the same thing to the table as Brees, but he's an experienced signal caller who has flashed when he's been healthy enough to play. It's not just all him. Saints got a great back in Kamara and a very underrated defense. 

Add in the home crowd and how rowdy it's going to be with this being a prime time game and I don't see the Saints losing this one. Dallas is a good but not great team. They have simply beat up on some bad teams to start the year. Take New Orleans! 

5* NFL - Rams/Browns SNF PLAY OF THE MONTH on Browns +3½ -110

I really like Cleveland to cash in a win at home against the Rams, but you got to take the points to be safe. It took a couple of weeks, but we are finally starting to see the public back on Los Angeles. They won and covered as a small favorite at Carolina in Week 1 and blew out New Orleans 27-9 as a small home favorite in Week 2. 

I just don't think it's warranted. I don't know that Carolina is all we thought they would be. Newtown doesn't look like himself and they barely won that game. As for the victory over the Saints, they caught the ultimate break with Drew Brees going down to injury. 

This does not look like the same team that went to the Super Bowl last year, especially on the offensive side. Rams rank in the bottom half of the league at just 224.0 passing yards/game. Jared Goff is also a guy that historically plays much worse on the road. I think he's in for a long day here against Myles Garrett. He was a force against the Jets last week. 

You also have to play into the atmosphere here. It's going to be electric at FirstEnergy Stadium and I got a feeling this Browns team is going to play with a little more fight as an underdog. Take Cleveland! 

5* NFL - Browns/Jets MNF VEGAS INSIDER on Jets +3 -110

I liked the Jets when the line first came out and while the Darnold news is not ideal, I still like New York to make a game of this at home on Monday Night Football. Jets still have Le'Veon Bell to keep the offense moving and this Browns defense is not as good as people think. They let Marcus Mariota threw for 250 yards and 3 scores and gave up over 120 yards on the ground. 

That same Titans offense managed just 242 total yards at home in a Week 2 loss to the Colts. I know Trevor Siemian has not been great as a starter, but a lot of those starts were on bad teams. I think he outperforms expectations in a big way here. Take New York! 

5* NFL - AFC West GAME OF THE MONTH on Raiders +7½ -110

Love the value here with Oakland getting over a touchdown at home against the Chiefs. I really liked what I saw from the Raiders in their win over Denver on MNF in Week 1. This team is playing with a chip on their shoulder from all that AB drama. 

They are going to give everything they got to beat their rival in KC. Mahomes and the Chiefs offense looked great in Week 1, but the problem is the defense. Kansas City did a lot to try and get better on that side of the ball only to watch a rookie in Gardner Minshew complete 22 of 25 against them. 

Add in the loss of Tyreek Hill for that Chiefs offense and I think Oakland can make a game of this. Also this a really tough traveling spot for KC having to go from playing at Jacksonville in Week 1 to the complete other side of the country in California. Take the Raiders! 

5* NFL - Bucs/Panthers NFC South GAME OF THE MONTH on Panthers -6½ -109

I really like the Panthers to lay it on the Bucs tonight. While both teams are coming off a loss at home in Week 1, Carolina lost to the reigning NFC champs in the Rams, while Tampa Bay lost to the 49ers. 

The big thing the Bucs were hoping for when they hired Bruce Arians was his ability to get Jameis Winston to finally play up to his potential. That hope didn't last long, as Winston threw for fewer than 200 yards and had 3 interceptions (two pick sixes) at home against a 49ers defense that only had 2 picks all of last year. 

I don't think it's going to get any better for Winston against the Panthers. Carolina's defense played pretty well against the Rams in Week 1. They gave up 30 points, but did hold the Rams to just 349 yards and just 4.6 yards/play. 

No player is going to be more motivated to go against Winston than new Carolina defensive tackle Gerald McCoy, who prior to this year had only played for Tampa. Bucs basically said he was washed up. Not only do I think McCoy shows out against his old team, but I like the entire Panthers defense to play inspired for their new teammate. 

Lastly, you have to factor in the huge advantage the home team has playing in these Thursday games on just 3-days of rest. Take Carolina! 

5* NFL - Texans/Saints MNF HEAVY HITTER on Texans +7 -106

I absolutely love the the value here with Houston. The betting public loves Drew Brees and the Saints and will almost back them no matter what at home, especially in a prime time game like this. New Orleans is definitely a top tier team in the NFC, but no way should they be laying a touchdown in Week 1 to a very talented Texans team. 

It's almost like people forget how good Houston was last year. The Texans won the AFC South at 11-5 and yet were being picked by many to finish as low as 3rd in the division. DeShaun Watson had a big year that got overlooked with all the Mahomes/Goff hype. 

I know they just lost a great defensive player in Jadeveon Clowney, but in the process they made a huge upgrade on the offensive line by adding in Laremy Tunsil. If they can get better play up front, look out. Watson threw for over 4,000 yards with a 26-9 TD-INT ratio, despite being sacked 62 times (most since 2006).

The defense also still has an elite player in J.J. Watt, who is coming off a 16 sack season. It feels like forever since he's been this healthy coming into a season. I'm not saying they are going to stop Brees and the Saints, but I think they can do enough to keep this close and cash in a cover. Take Houston! 

5* NFL - Pats/Steelers Week 1 GAME OF THE YEAR on Steelers +6 -110

I love the points with Pittsburgh, as the Steelers head to New England to take on the Patriots on Sunday Night Football. New England is the only team that no matter what happens in the offseason, it's just assumed they are going to be good. 

I expect the Patriots to be a threat in the AFC, but at least for now Tom Brady doesn't have Gronk. I know his play had declined some in the last couple of years, but Brady's numbers were drastically better with him on the field. I could definitely see that offense struggling early and it's not uncommon for the Pats to not look their best in the first couple weeks of the season. 

Pittsburgh is a team that I think people are kinda sleeping on. The Steelers losing both Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown has a lot to do with that. However, they showed they didn't need Bell last year and after the last month or so, I think Pittsburgh has to be thrilled to not have that headache in Brown. I think the offense won't miss a beat with Big Ben under center and that defense has a lot of talented young players. Take Pittsburgh! 

5* Rams/Patriots SUPER BOWL 53 Top Play on Rams +

I really like the Rams to take down Belichick and Brady in Super Bowl 53. I love that after their big win over the Chiefs the Patriots have regained the public backing and are favored here. The underdog has covered 8 of the last 10 Super Bowls. 

Unlike Kansas City, whose defense just wasn't quite good enough, the Rams got the guys up front that can really disrupt Brady. It's a lot easier to set up your blocking to slow down edge rushers like the Chiefs' Dee Ford and Justin Houston. It's a whole different animal trying to slow down the dynamic duo of Ndamukong Suh and Aaron Donald. 

Just look at previous Super Bowls involving the Patriots. Their offense has struggled when going up against teams that can get pressure up the middle and force Brady out of the pocket. On the other side of the ball, New England has struggled with these high-powered offenses and I think Sean McVay and the Rams will be able to learn a lot with how the Patriots defended the Chiefs. Keep in mind that once KC figured out what the Pats were doing defensively, they did whatever they wanted. 

I just think the Rams have the better team and the edge on both sides of the football. Only reason the Patriots are favored is because of what they have done in the past. Take Los Angeles! 

5* Pats/Chiefs AFC Championship GAME OF THE YEAR  on Chiefs -

Forget the points, take Kansas City on the money line in the AFC Championship Game. As good as Brady and Belichick have been, so much of their success in the postseason has come at home. I just think their reputation is the only thing that is keeping this line where it is. 

I'm not about to say Andy Reid is better than Belichick, but he's arguably the closest thing to him. Mahomes has a long way to go to be mentioned in the same sentence as Brady in terms of accomplishments, but I don't think there's any arguing who the better quarterback is right now. Mahomes is the MVP and doing things that simply haven't been done. 

It certainly doesn't hurt that he's got a plethora of big time weapons at his disposal. I also think it's huge that this will be the second time these two teams have faced. It can be hard for young quarterbacks their first time up against a Belichick coached defense. He's going to have a much better understanding this time around. Keep in mind the Chiefs were held to 9 points (3 field goals) in the 1st half of the first meeting and ended up with 40. 

While the Chiefs defense was torched for 43, there's a big difference from Kansas City's defense on the road and at home. Especially in a game of this magnitude. They looked elite last week against the Colts. I think they will be ready for James White and that pass rush of the Chiefs is the real deal and I believe will be the difference in this game. Take Kansas City! 

5* NFL Sunday (Chargers/Pats) AFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Chargers +

I like Los Angeles to go into New England and win the game, so this is an easy play for me with the Chargers getting more than a field goal. I mean sure the Patriots could squeak out a win with the game being at home and them off a bye, but I don't see a scenario where they are able to generate the kind of separation needed to cover this spread. 

Props to Belichick for getting New England to the No. 2 seed in the AFC, but the schedule was definitely in their favor this year and once against the AFC East was trash. Tom Brady isn't the same and simply doesn't have the weapons he needs to play at a high level. Most notably Gronk is not the same guy. He finished 4th in receiving, behind Josh Gordon, who played in two fewer games and had to learn the offense on the fly. 

The defense has been respectable, but still not an elite unit and will have a really tough time containing Rivers, who is playing exceptional football right now. As good as the Pats' dynasty has been, all good things come to an end. Take Los Angeles! 

5* NFL Wild Card Weekend GAME OF THE YEAR on Ravens -

This is an exceptional price to get the Ravens at home against the Chargers. Baltimore just went to LA in Week 16 and dominated them 22-10. While Los Angeles did a good job slowing down the Ravens run game, but Baltimore still had 159 rushing yards and outgained the Chargers by 163 total yards. 

The Ravens defense was able to make life miserable for Philip Rivers and the LA offense. It's not going to be any easier on the road, where you have to deal with exceptional crowd noise in playoff games. 

I don't see any reason this quick rematch will yield a different outcome. Baltimore should be a much bigger favorite here, but the public loves this Chargers team and LA has the more trusted quarterback in Rivers. People forget how good a top notch rushing attack and stingy defense can be in the postseason. Take Baltimore! 

5* NFC Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Vikings -

Minnesota should have no problem here winning by at least a touchdown against the Bears. This is not a play against Chicago because I don't think they are a good team. This more about how little the game ultimately means to the Bears. Yes, Chicago can still get the No. 2 seed with a win and a Rams loss, but LA isn't losing at home to the 49ers. 

You can bet that the Bears' coaching staff will be playing close attention to that game and once the Rams get up on the 49ers, they have to start thinking about resting their guys and turning their attention to Wild Card weekend. 

While Chicago could come out flat and not 100% invested, this is basically an early playoff game for the Vikings. Win and they are headed to Wild Card weekend, lose and their season is likely over. I think the offense has been a lot better since the OC switch and more than anything, this is a different team on their home field. 

Vikings are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 as a home favorite, winning on average by 8.3 ppg. They are also a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Take Minnesota! 

5* Vikings/Lions NFC North GAME OF THE MONTH on Lions +

We are seeing a big time overreaction here given the situation and it's generated great value with Detroit. Minnesota comes in off a 41-17 home win over the Dolphins and the perception here is they are the only team with something to play for and will win easy. 

I'm not about to overreact to the Vikings beating a mediocre at best Miami team at home. This is also a division game and there's nothing more satisfying than playing spoiler against a division rival when you aren't in the playoff mix. I expect a big time effort here from the Lions to make sure the Vikings join them at home watching the postseason. 

Detroit has really been competitive of late. In their last 5 games their only bad loss is a 14-point defeat at home to the Rams, but that was a very misleading final score, as the Lions merely trailed by 3-points (16-13) going into the 4th quarter and LA added a late TD. 

Detroits's defense has really played well and let's not forget how much this Vikings offense was struggling prior to their big game last week against the Dolphins. It's far from a guarantee that Minnesota even wins this game. Vikings are just 1-4-1 ATS last 6 off a SU win and 0-3-1 ATS last 4 off a game they covered the spread. Take Detroit! 

5* NFL Saints/Panthers NFC South GAME OF THE MONTH on Panthers +

This is the perfect time to buy low on the Panthers. Carolina has surprised just about everyone by losing 5 straight after starting the year 6-2. While it's hard to find positives in a 5-game losing streak, the Panthers have had their chances. Each of their last 4 defeats have come by 7-points or less and 4 of the last 5 have been on the road. 

Carolina is a dominant 5-1 at home and their lone home loss to the Seahawks is a game they gave away late. There's no way the Panthers should be catching almost a touchdown on their home field against any team in the league. New Orleans however is a massive public team right now. The Saints just covered a 9.5-point spread at Tampa Bay (very fortunate to cover) and are 10-1 ATS last 11. 

The big key here is the New Orleans offense is not playing at the same level it was early on. The Saints were held to just 10-points in a loss at Dallas and while they ended up with 28 last week at Tampa, they had just 3 points with less than 5 minutes to play in the 3rd quarter. Carolina's got he talent up front to give the Saints trouble and that should be more than enough to keep them in this game. 

It's also worth noting this game means everything for the Panthers, who need to win to have a realistic shot at making it as a Wild Card. This one doesn't mean nearly as much to the Saints, thanks in large part to the Rams loss last night. A loss here and New Orleans still is in control of the No. 1 seed in the NFC. Take Carolina! 

5* NFL Browns/Broncos NO LIMIT Top Play on Browns +

Cleveland has been a different team since Hue Jackson and Todd Haley were shown the door. They have already won 3 games under interim head coach Gregg Williams. That's as many as Jackson won in his entire tenure. 

A big reason for that is the talent they now have at quarterback. Baker Mayfield passes the eye test and is only going to keep getting better. Browns have won 3 of their last 4 and the lone loss against the Texans was a lot more competitive than the final score. Cleveland just didn't take care of the ball. 

While there chances of making the playoffs are slim, the fact that they even have a shot is enough for this team to play hard. I don't think Denver is looking at this the same way, especially after losing last week to a bad 49ers team. Not to mention all the key guys that are now out to injury for the Broncos. This line is begging for you take them as a slim home favorite, which is even more reason to like the Browns. Take Cleveland! 

5* NFL AFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Ravens +

This is just too many points for the Chiefs to be laying against a really good Baltimore team that is playing with a lot of momentum right now under rookie quarterback Lamar Jackson. Ravens have won 3 straight since Jackson replaced Joe Flacco and while he's still got a ways to go as a pocket passer, he's been electric with his feet and the offense has scored 24 or more in all 3 of his starts. A mark they had eclipse only 3 times in their previous 9 games. 

With Jackson as the signal caller, Baltimore has rushed for at least 200 yards in all 3 of his starts and they are averaging almost 400 ypg during this stretch. All that running has allowed the Ravens to dominate the time of possession, which is huge against a team like KC, as the best defense for Mahomes and that attack is to not let them have the ball. 

With that said, I think this Ravens defense can at least slow down the Chiefs high-powered attack and keep them from putting a big number on the board. I like Spencer Ware, but this is not the same offense without Kareem Hunt in the backfield. They also won't have wide out Sammy Watkins. Not as many big weapons as their previously was. Baltimore can load up the defense on Hill and Kelce. 

The Ravens have also been a great bet when facing a bad defensive team like Kansas City, especially later on in the year. They are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 road games vs teams who are allowing 375 or more total yards/game in the 2nd half of the season and have won these games outright by just over a touchdown. Take Baltimore! 

5* NFC Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Lions +

I just think Detroit is too talented a team to be getting double-digits at home, especially in this spot. While we all know the Lions aren't a playoff team, the mindset for this team is they win out and they have a chance, so I expect a max effort here to save their season. 

On the flip side of this, the Rams are returning from their bye week and they went into their bye off that thrilling 54-51 win over the Chiefs on Monday Night Football. LA has to be feeling pretty good about themselves and Detroit's not the kind of team that will get their attention.

I think the Rams come out flat here and we have seen the Lions pull off some impressive performances at home. They dominated the Patriots 26-10 early on in the season and later beat the Packers 31-23 and recently knocked off Carolina as a 4-point dog. 

Prior to beat the Chiefs the Rams had gone 1-5 ATS in their previous 6 games. As long as the public thinks they are the best team, they will be way overvalued. Take Detroit! 

5* Saints/Cowboys NFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Cowboys +

We are getting unbelievable value here with Dallas catching over a touchdown at home. What this line tells us is that New Orleans would be at least a double-digit favorite on a neutral field and close to a 14-point favorite at home against the Cowboys. 

That's ridiculous. I know the Saints just covered as 13.5-point favorites at home against the Falcons, but that was a complete fluke. Atlanta had multiple turnovers in the red zone that took points off the scoreboard and wound up losing the game by 14. Falcons actually outgained New Orleans 366 to 312. Keep in mind that's the same Atlanta team that Dallas beat on the road in Week 11. 

The move to acquire wide out Amari Cooper has really paid off for the Cowboys. It's not only given Dak someone he can count on in the passing game when he needs to throw for a big first down, but more importantly it's opened up the running game. With the way Dallas is playing defense, if they can pound the rock and play the clock, they not only will keep this within the number, but they will have an excellent shot of winning this game outright and putting an end to that 10-game winning streak of the Saints. Take Dallas! 

5* AFC Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Dolphins +

It's been quite a run here of late for Andrew Luck and the Colts. Indianapolis has won 4 straight and went from a playoff afterthought at 1-5 to tied for the final Wild Card spot at 5-5. This recent run has the Colts way overvalued here against the Dolphins, as Indy has no business laying more than a touchdown. 

I get it's been bad for Miami, but they have been without starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill since the end of September. Dolphins started out 3-2 with Tannehill at quarterback and will certainly be more competitive with him under center than backup Brock Osweiler. Add in the fact that Miami has had two weeks to get ready for this game coming off their bye and this isn't just a game they can keep close, but one they could win outright. 

The Colts are still banged up defensively, but the biggest injury news for Indy is the loss of starting center Ryan Kelly, who has been downgraded to out with a knee injury. Center is one of the more underrated positions in the NFL and things can spiral out of control up from on the offensive line when one goes down.

Look for Luck to have a little less time to throw, which is going to limit the big plays down the field. That's only going to increase the likelihood that the Dolphins keep it closer than expected. Take Miami! 

5* Falcons/Saints NFC South GAME OF THE YEAR  on Falcons +

The books have had enough with the public cashing in tickets on this Saints team. New Orleans has covered the spread in 8 straight games, which is ridiculous in pro football. There's zero doubt here that this line is inflated in favor of the Saints and I just think there's too much value here to pass up. 

Keep in mind these two teams played at Atlanta back in Week 3 and the Falcons were actually a 1.5-point favorite. New Orleans ended up winning 43-37 in OT, but had to score a late TD in the final minutes to force extra time. That early lean in Atlanta suggest that had those two teams played on a neutral field in Week 3 the Saints would have been around a 2-point favorite and close to a 6-point favorite at home (maybe a TD given NO homefield). This is almost double that. 

I just think people can forget the advantage division teams have against each other, in that they are so familiar with one another. It's why it's really hard to blowout division opponents, especially a talented team like the Falcons who can put up points. I expect Matt Ryan and Atlanta to be in this thing right down to the final minutes and easily cover the big number. Take Atlanta! 

5* NFL Thanksgiving NO LIMIT Top Play on Lions +

I really like the value here with the Lions as a short home dog against the Bears. This is one of those rare times in the NFL where you have two division teams playing for the second time in just a matter of weeks. Most are just going to look back at Chicago's 34-22 win in Week 10 and expect the Bears to roll here, especially after Chicago followed that win up with another impressive win at home over the Vikings. 

The thing is, it's a lot harder winning on the road, especially inside your own division. Plus, the Bears are likely to be without starting quarterback Mitch Trubisky. I also think that highly regarded Chicago defense could struggle a bit playing on away from home on just 3-days rest and off a very physical game against Minnesota. 

Bears are just 1-111 ATS in their last 12 road games with a total of 42.5 to 49 and 1-9 in their last 10 road games after holding their previous opponent to 75 or less. 

We also have a strong system in play favoring a fade of the Bears. Road teams that have covered the spread in at least 5 of their last 7 games and have won 60% to 75% of their games are a mere 43-80 (35%) ATS when playing a team with a losing record. That's a 65% system in favor of Detroit dating back to 1983! Take Detroit! 

5* Vikings/Bears NFC North GAME OF THE YEAR on Bears -

I absolutely love the value here with Chicago laying less than a field goal at home against division rival Minnesota. The Bears are sitting at 6-3 and on top the NFC North, but I just don't get the feeling that people are buying into this team like they should 

The defense has been outstanding from the start, as the addition of Mack really took that unit to a whole different level. What makes Chicago such a dangerous team is the offense has gotten better and better, as we are seeing a similar impact here with Nagy and Trubisky as we did last year with McVay and Goff. 

Since scoring 16 points in a win at Arizona in late September, the Bears have averaged an impressive 34.3 ppg. They definitely got the good to slow down Kirk Cousins and that Vikings offense and with this being a prime time home game under the lights of Sunday Night Football, I just feel the value is too good to pass up. Take Chicago! 

5* Packers/Seahawks TNF GAME OF THE YEAR  on Packers +

There's no denying the Seahawks have played the Rams tough twice, including last week's 36-31 setback at Los Angeles. I just think those two losses to the Rams has Seattle overvalued. It's about who you beat, not how close you come to winning. The truth is the Seahawks are 4-5 and those 4 wins have come against the Cowboys Raiders Lions and Cardinals. 

While the Packers are just 4-4-1, those that have watched the Packers know this team is better than their record. They are 7th in total offense and 11th in total defense. Seattle in comparison is 22nd in offense and 12th in defense. 

The Seahawks also have the perception of being such a dominant home team, but are just 7-8 ATS over the last 3 seasons as a home favorite. We just saw them lose as a pick'em at home to the Chargers a few weeks back and I think the Packers are every bit as good as LA. Not to mention Green Bay really needs a win here with them trailing both the Vikings and Bears in the NFC North. Seems like whenever the Packers are desperate, Aaron Rodgers delivers a win and I expect nothing less tonight. Take Green Bay! 

5* AFC No Limit GAME OF THE MONTH on Titans +

Big time value here with Tennessee as a touchdown dog at home against the Patriots. After that ugly start to the year New England has won 6 straight and gone 5-1 ATS in the process. After the books got killed in Week 9, they are making the public pay and this is just way too many points for the Patriots to be laying on the road against a good team like the Titans. 

I know Tennessee doesn't always look pretty, but they are 4-4 and have covered 5 of their last 7. The most recent being a 28-14 win at Dallas as a 4-point dog. This Titans defense is way better than they get credit for. Their strength is against the pass, as they rank 7th allowing just 239.0 ypg. 

While the offense can look anemic at times, this Patriots defense is one they should be able to move the ball against. NE is allowing 23.5 points/game, 420 yards/game and 6.2 yards/play on the road. I don't think there's a ton of difference from Tennessee and say the Bears, yet the NE was a mere 2-point favorite at Chicago and needed a lot to go right to win that game. 

Titans are 10-3 ATS last 13 vs a team with a winning record and 5-1 ATS last 6 at home. Take Tennessee! 

5* NFL Non-Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Bills +

The public perception couldn't be any worse on the Bills right now. No one wants anything to do with backing Buffalo, especially given that Nathan Peterman is expected to start. I get it, but there's just too much value here with the Bills as a double-digit home dog. 

Chicago's a good team, but they aren't the Patriots and shouldn't be laying this many points on the road, especially with their limitations offensively and how strong Buffalo is on the defensive side of the ball. It was a bit of a fluke the Bills didn't cover the 13.5-point spread agains the Patriots. I not only think they will cover this big number, but I wouldn't be shocked if they won this game outright. 

I know there's talk out there about the Bears not looking past the Bills, but that's easier said than done, especially with two big division home games on deck. I think the difference here will be Buffalo's defense taking away Chicago's running game and making Trubisky beat them. 

Bears are just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 road games after playing their previous game at home and are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 on the road after a game  where they gained 6 or more yards/play. Take Buffalo! 

5* Patriots/Bills MNF GAME OF THE YEAR on Bills +

We are seeing a ridiculous overreaction with this line for Monday Night Football. The books know that the public is going to come in on New England here no matter the price, so they jacked this thing way up. As bad as Buffalo has looked, you just can't pass up getting two touchdowns with a division home dog, especially in a prime time game, where we know the crowd will be into it. 

There's no denying the Bills' offense is a work in progress, but I think they can get something going here against the Patriots. New England's defense hasn't exactly been shutting teams down. The Patriots are 20th against the run and 24th against the pass. They have given up 31 to the Jaguars, 26 to the Lions and 31 to the Bears in their 3 road games this season. Note they lost to both Jacksonville and Detroit and barely held on for a 7-point win at Chicago. 

The even bigger key here is the Bills have the talent defensively to slow down Tom Brady and the Patriots offense. Buffalo has the 4th best defense in the NFL, giving up only 320.9 ypg, which is really a remarkable feat when you factor in how much they have had to be on the field with how bad the offense has been. 

I don't think the Bills will have what it takes to win this game outright, but with a max effort on both sides at home, I think they can make a game of it and keep this well within the number. Take Buffalo! 

5* NFL No Limit GAME OF THE YEAR on Jags +

I love the value here with the Jaguars as a 3.5-point dog against the Eagles in Sunday's early action from London. Jacksonville is well equipped for the trip overseas, as they do it every year. After a 3rd straight loss and their season in jeopardy, I'm confident Blake Bortles and the Jaguars defense will show up in a big way at Wembley Stadium. 

Philadelphia is a prime example of just how hard it is to repeat in the NFL. Last year the Eagles could do no wrong, but this year it's been a major struggle. They just keep finding ways to lose games they should win. Last week they blew a 17-point lead in the 4th quarter. Philadelphia tight end, Zach Ertz, said it was "As tough a loss as I've had in my 5-plus years here."

Those are always the toughest games to bounce back from. Instead of taking this team for what it is, everyone just assumes they will return to the same form as last year. The books have made a killing against people with that mindset, as the Eagles are 1-5 ATS over their last 6. 

Jaguars are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 off a double-digit loss at home and we find a big time system in play backing them to cover on Sunday. Underdogs in the first half of the season that have lost to the spread by 42 or more points in their last 5 games are 25-6 (81%) ATS oner the last 10 seasons. Take Jacksonville! 

5* NFL AFC South GAME OF THE YEAR  on Jags - 

This is the ideal spot to jump on Jacksonville. The perception couldn't be much worse on the Jaguars after their last two performances. After getting routed on the road by the Chiefs 30-14 in Week 5, Jacksonville laid an absolute egg in a 40-7 loss at Dallas this past Sunday. 

The thing is, this is a team that has a hard time playing well on the road, but seem to always show up at home. I expect a completely different Jaguars team when they take the field at home against division rival Houston. 

I know the Texans come in having won 3 straight after their 0-3 start, but it's nothing to be excited about. The 3 wins came against the likes of the Colts, Cowboys and Bills and all 3 wins came by a touchdown or less and only the game against Indy was on the road. This is still the same team that lost outright at home to that awful Giants team. 

I just think with the way the Texans offense is struggling to move the ball, they simply won't be able to score enough here against an elite and pissed off Jaguars defense. Jacksonville's Doug Marrone is a perfect 7-0 ATS as a head coach the game following a contest where his team was outgained by 100 or more yards. Jags are also 14-5 in there last 19 off a loss by more than 14 points, while the Texans are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 on the road and 4-12A TS in their last 16 off a win. Take Jacksonville! 

5* Sunday Night Football TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Pats/Chiefs OVER

You don't see a ton of NFL totals approaching 60 points, but I got no problem here backing the OVER when the Chiefs visit the Patriots on Sunday Night Football. I honestly don't know that the books can set the total high enough for the offense fireworks that will be on display. 

While there's a few out there that aren't completely sold on Mahomes, this kid is the real deal. He had his worst game of the season last week against the Jaguars, failing to throw a single TD pass and throwing his first two interceptions of the season. He still threw for 313 yards and rushed for a score in the Chiefs convincing win over Jacksonville. Not a bad day against arguably the best defense in the NFL. 

Andy Reid's offenses have given the Patriots troubles in recent meetings with Alex Smith under center. I just don't think New England has the talent to contain Mahomes and all those weapons on the offensive side of the ball. Belichick loves to take away a teams strength or top playmaker, but that's hard to do with this Chiefs team, as they got top not skill players all over the field and Mahomes is not shy about spreading the ball around. He's thrown 14 touchdown passes to 9 different receivers. 

As for the Patriots offense, they are going to have try and keep pace and they should be able to do just that against a bad KC defense. While the Chiefs held the Jaguars to 14 points, they gave up over 500 yards of offense. They simply took advantage of a poor game by Jacksonville stater Blake Bortles. Brady isn't going to make those same mistakes. 

I think both teams will score at least 30 points, which would be more than enough to cash a winning ticket here. OVER is also 73-37 (66%) since 1983 when you have an undefeated road team off a home win by 10 or more. Take the OVER! 

5* Eagles/Giants NFC East GAME OF THE MONTH on Giants +

The Eagles continue to get way too much respect from the books after last year's Super Bowl win. Philadelphia was expected to defend their title, but they haven't even looked like a playoff team to this point. The Eagles are 2-3 with their only wins at home against the Falcons and Colts and they could have easily lost both of those games, as both Atlanta and Indy had the ball deep in Eagles territory with a chance to take the lead late. 

The two biggest problems for Philadelphia have been the injuries that have piled up on the offensive side of the ball and the defense not playing anywhere close to as well as it did a season ago. Carson Wentz is just fine, but the supporting cast is really limited with the likes of Jay Ajayi, Darren Sproles and Mike Wallace all sidelined. 

The Giants are sitting at 1-4 and have been a big disappointment, but they are coming off their best performance of the season in a mere 2-point loss at Carolina. The offense put up 31 points on a good Panthers defense, who were off a bye and I think they finally got something going on that side of the ball. I look for the G-men to deliver in what feels like a must-win game. Take New York! 

5* AFC Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Dolphins +

Cincinnati is getting way to much respect here at home. The Bengals pulled off an incredible 37-36 win over the Falcons last week, winning outright as a 3.5-point dog. Miami on the other hand lost 38-7 at New England. 

I just think we have seen a big overreaction to the Dolphins loss. They couldn't have caught the Patriots at a worse time, as New England was 100% locked in after losing two straight. The Patriots would have done that to a lot of teams. This is still the same team that started out 3-0 and we can be sure we get the very best they have to offer off that embarrassing loss. 

Cincinnati has started out strong, but I don't think this Bengals team is anything special. They got a lot of keys guys out with injury right now and are running out of weapons on the offensive side of the ball. Tyler Eifert is on IR, second year wide out John Ross is questionable with a groin injury and their top two backs, Joe Mixon and Giovani Bernard are also both questionable. 

I think this should be closer to the Bengals as a 3-point favorite, giving us almost a field goal worth of value on a team that is more than capable of winning this game outright. Dolphins have also covered 5 of their last 6 after a poor offensive game where they had fewer than 150 passing yards. Take Miami! 

5* NFL Sunday Night TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Steelers UNDER

The fact that the OVER is a perfect 3-0 in the Steelers first 3 games and the Ravens are looking strong offensively to start, has this total for Sunday Night Football set way to high. I think both teams will struggle to come anywhere close to putting up the kind of numbers here to push this over the mark. 

The biggest thing that gets overlooked is just how much harder it is offensively against a division opponent, as these teams play each other twice a year and are very familiar with the schemes the opponent likes to run. 

Baltimores defense has been great outside of the Thursday night game against the Bengals and I believe that poor showing was a direct result of playing on just 3 days of rest. The Ravens definitely matchup well with Pittsburgh and their high-powered passing attack, as Baltimore ranks 2nd in the NFL against the pass, giving up just 169.3 ypg. 

The Steelers defense hasn't been the same since losing Ryan Shazier at the end of last season, but they were sharp last week against the Bucs. While they allowed 27 points for the game, Tampa Bay had just 10 points at the half and the Steelers defense forced 4 turnovers. Baltimore's offense also isn't as good as the numbers would suggest, as they have benefited greatly from playing the likes of the Bills, Bengals and Broncos. 

UNDER is 13-3 in the Steelers last 12 vs a team that's averaging 29 or more points/game and 12-4 in their last 16 after a game where they allowed 250 or more yards passing. 

We also find a great system in play, as the UNDER is 75-35 (68%) when you have a total of 49.5 or more with a team (Ravens) off a home win and playing a division game. Take the UNDER! 

5* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on 49ers +

The Chiefs are getting way too much respect from the books after their 2-0 start. Kansas City's Patrick Mahomes has been the talk of the NFL after setting a new NFL record with 10 touchdowns passes in the first two games of the season. While the Chief's offense is dynamic, the defense is one of the worst in the league. 

Kansas City's secondary has been an absolute joke. They let Philip Rivers throw for 418 yards in Week 1 and last week Ben Roethlisberger threw for 442 yards. Expect a monster day here from Jimmy Garoppolo and the entire 49ers offense. 

I just think when you play defense as poorly as the Chiefs do, it's only a matter a time before it bites you. San Francisco's defense hasn't been great early on, but will be getting back a huge piece this week in linebacker Reuben Foster, who was suspended the first two games. I think the 49ers get a few more stops and it wouldn't surprise me at all if they won this game outright. 

There's also a great system in play favoring a San Francisco cover. Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points who didn't force a turnover in their previous game are a mere 41-81 (35%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It's also worth noting the 49ers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 on the road. Take San Francisco!