Sports Picks & Predictions

5* Grizzlies/Warriors  NBA Vegas Insider on UNDER

The last time these two teams faced off in the regular season the total was set at just 196.5 points. That alone shows you the value we are getting here, as the defensive intensity will be taken to a whole different level.

A lot of people think the Warriors are all flash on offense, but that's not the case at all. Golden State led the league in defensive efficiency. Memphis to no surprise also ranked inside the Top 5 in that category.

Grizzlies know they keep up with the Warriors in a shootout and Golden State understands that Memphis has little to no chance of beating them at home if they match the Grizzlies intensity on the defensive side of the ball. Steph Curry backed up this point, saying, "Our defense is going to show up. That's what we're going to bank on for the whole series."

UNDER is 68-24 in games with a total set between 190 and 199.5 points, where you have a well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days (Warriors), on Sunday. That's a 74% long-term system. BET THE UNDER!

5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Nets/Hawks UNDER

I believe we are seeing a major overreaction here from the books due to Game 4's high-scoring affair that saw the Hawks/Nets combine for 235 points. Only 208 of those game in regulation, as the two combined for 27 in overtime.

Each of the first 3 games in the series finished with 191 or less, including a mere 174 in Game 3. Defense has the edge as these series progress, which is why I'm not expecting to see a repeat of the strong shooting percentages from Game 4, where Atlanta hit 48.4% from the field and Brooklyn 47.9%. Keep in mind that even with both teams red-hot, they only went over the posted total for Game 5 by a mere 8-points in regulation.

UNDER is 12-2 in the Nets last 14 after a game where they made 12 or more 3-point shots and 12-3 in their last 15 as a road dog of 6.5 to 12 points. UNDER is also 4-1 in Atlanta's last 5 home games against a team with a losing road record and 4-1 in their last 5 following a game where they failed to cover. These trends add up to form a strong 82% (32-7) system. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Playoffs Total Annihilator on Mavs/Rockets UNDER

While 3 of the first 4 games in the series have seen at least 126 combined points scored, I believe there's simply too much value here with tonight's total. Keep in mind that the first game in the series had a total of just 213 points, so there's some big time inflation going on with the total here eclipsing 220.

Houston's defense was non-existent in the last two games, but they were a lot better on that side of the ball at home in the first two games of the series. With a chance to close out the series and get some rest before taking on either the Clippers or Spurs, I look for the Rockets to really get after it on that side of the ball at home. As good as they are offensively, they don't want to get in a shootout with Dallas.

UNDER is 7-2 in Mavericks last 9 road games against a team with a winning home record and 13-6 in their last 19 after a game where they covered the spread. UNDER is also 33-17 in Dallas' last 50 road games after 2 straight games where they shot 50% or better from the field. These trends combine to form a strong 68% (53-25) system. Take the UNDER!

5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Total Top Play on Mavs/Rockets UNDER

These two teams combined for 226 points in Game 1, easily surpassing the total of 213. That high-scoring affair has forced the books to raise the total by 2.5-points and thus creating some great value on the UNDER.

The defensive intensity is at a different level in the playoffs and it gets turned up a notch after the first game of the series. Dallas tried to focus all their attention on Harden in Game 1 and it backfired with the other guys stepping up. Head coach Rick Carlisle is one of the best ad making adjustments in the playoffs and I look for the Mavericks to do a much better job defensively in Game 2.

It's important to note that these two teams played 4 times during the regular season and all 4 of those meetings finished with fewer than 211 points. One of things that gets overlooked is how good defensively the Rockets were given their pace. Houston ranked 6th in the league in defensive efficiency during the regular season.

UNDER is 12-4 in Mavericks last 16 when playing with double-revenge against an opponent and 13-5 in the Rockets last 18 when facing a team that's won 60% to 70% of their games. Adding to this is a strong system. UNDER is 30-8 over the last 5 seasons when you have a team off 2 or more consecutive overs (HOU) against an opponent off 6 or more consecutive overs (DAL). That's a 79% system. Take the UNDER!

5* Bucks/Bulls NBA Playoffs Total Annihilator on UNDER

It looked like Game 1 was going to fly over the total of 186 after the Milwaukee and Chicago combined for 111 points in the 1st half. Instead they just barely finished over the mark at 194. The Bucks managed just 40 points in the 2nd half and the Bulls scored just 43.

I believe that's more of the type of offensive output that we can expect to see going forward. Chicago's defense has really came on strong down the stretch and the Bucks just don't have any real dynamic offensive players.

The Bulls have held the Bucks to just 85.3 ppg over the last 8 meetings and aren't going to take their foot off the gas. Chicago needs to finish this series quickly and make sure they are 100% going into their much anticipated round 2 showdown against the Cavs.

UNDER is 6-1 in the Bucks last 7 following a SU loss of more than 10 points and 19-8 in their last 27 road games when revenging a road loss. UNDER is also 20-9 in the Bulls last 29 off a home by 10+ points and 11-2 in their last 13 after scoring 60+ in the first half of their previous game. These trends combine to form a strong 74% (56-20) system. Take the UNDER!

4* Blazers/Grizzlies NBA No Brainer on UNDER

Each of the last two meetings between these two teams resulted in low-scoring games. They combined for just 190 points at Portland on 2/22 and a mere 183 at Memphis on 3/21. Given the intensity of the playoffs and the fact that both of these two teams ranked inside the Top 10 in defensive efficiency for the season, I look for this one to stay well below the mark.

UNDER is 23-4 in Memphis' last 27 home games, 20-5-1 in their last 26 off a SU win and 7-1-1 in their last 9 games played on Sunday. UNDER is also 5-1 in Blazers last 6 when playing with 3 or more days of rest and 25-8 in their last 33 road games when revenging 4 or more straight losses to an opponent. These trends combine to form a strong 81% (80-19) system. Take the UNDER!

5* NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month on Pacers/Thunder UNDER

With both Oklahoma City and Indiana fighting for their playoff lives right now and both teams fresh off a days rest, I'm expecting both to lay it all on the line defensively in this one. The Pacers are currently 9th in the east, but are just 1-game back of both Boston and Brooklyn. The Thunder are in tie for 8th with the Pelicans, but technically 9th as they lose the head-to-head tiebreaker.

Indiana allowed 103 in their last game against Detroit, but prior to that had held each of their previous 3 opponents under 90 points. While Oklahoma City's defense hasn't been great of late, the Pacers are only averaging 97.3 ppg on the season.

These two teams combined for just 197 in the previous meeting this season in Oklahoma City and the last time they played in Indiana the two combined for just 199. UNDER is 29-14 in the Thunders last 43 after allowing 100+ in 4 straight games and 35-19 in the Pacers last 54 after allowing a shooting percentage of 42% or less in each of their last 5 games. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Total Annihilator on Knicks/Magic UNDER

While the Knicks come in averaging just 91.8 ppg and the Magic are averaging just 96.0 ppg, these are also two bad defensive teams. New York allows 101.3 ppg (103.3 on the road) and Orlando gives up 101.7 ppg (102.8 at home).

The key thing here is that there's absolutely no reason for either of these teams to be excited about this game. Both are more interested in making plans for the offseason at this point and I'm expecting zero defense to be played, creating some nice value on the total.

OVER is 13-3-1 in the Knicks last 17 versus a team with a losing record and 10-1 in the Magic's last 11 against a team with a losing record. These two trends combine to form a strong 85% (23-4) system. Take the OVER!

5* Southeast Division Game of the Month on Hornets/Heat UNDER

Miami is tied with Indiana at 34-43, which has them 1-game back of the Celtics for the 8th and final spot in the Easter Conference. Charlotte is right behind both of those teams at 33-43, just 1.5-games out of the playoffs. With just 5-games left on the schedule, both teams desperately need a win here.

I believe it's going to a lead to a low-scoring game, as both of these teams rely a lot on their defensive. The Heat are allowing just 97.2 ppg and Charlotte is giving up 97.0 ppg, while both teams average less than 95 ppg offensively. All 3 of the previous matchups this season have seen a combined score of 187 or less, including a mere 154 in the most recent matchup.

UNDER is 0-9 this season when Charlotte is playing with 2 days rest and 2-12 in the Heat's last 14 when playing against a marginal losing team (40% to 49%). These two trends combine to form a dynamite 91% (21-2) system. Take the UNDER!

3* Blazers/Nets NBA Total No Brainer on UNDER

This is a rescheduled game from Jan. 26 and as a result it's got both teams playing here with limited rest. Portland will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days and while they had yesterday off, this is a long way to travel for just 1-game. Brooklyn will also be playing their 3rd game in 4 days, but it's also their 5th in the last 7 days.

I just don't see either team being all that efficient offensively, especially when you factor in the intensity that both teams figure to be playing with. Portland has at least the No. 4 seed locked up in the west, but that doesn't guarantee home court advantage in the first round, something this team desperately wants and needs. They are actually 1-game back of 5th place Los Angeles and 1/2-game back of 6th place San Antonio. Brooklyn on the other hand has just a 1/2 game lead over 8th place Boston and is just 2 in front of 11th place Charlotte.

UNDER is 13-5 in the Nets 18 games this season when playing against a team that's won between 60% to 70% of their games and 13-5 in their last 18 after allowing 100+ points in each of their last two games. UNDER is also 5-2 in the last 7 meetings between these two teams. These trends combine to form a strong 72% (31-12) system. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Total No Brainer on Thunder/Grizzlies UNDER

Only once in the last 8 meetings between these two teams have they combined for more than 200 points. All 3 meetings this season have seen 194 or fewer points. In the lone meeting in Memphis, the two combined for a mere 159 points.

The big reason we are seeing such a high total here is due to the Thunder coming off a game against Dallas where the two teams combined for a staggering 266 points. I just don't see that kind of game here. Memphis is a dominant defensive team and rarely give up a big number on their home floor. At the same time, the Grizzlies are not a good offensive team and like to play at a slow pace.

Couple extra factors here that I believe favor a low-scoring game. Memphis has fallen a .5-game back of the Rockets for the No. 2 spot in the west. Getting out of No. 3 and back into No. 2 is crucial, as the No. 3 seed will likely have to open with either the Spurs or Clippers in the first round. Oklahoma City became the first team since 1995 to have 3 players score 30+ points in a losing effort in that loss to Dallas and have their defensive to blame. I'm expecting max effort on that side of the ball. Thunder are also just 1.5-games ahead of surging New Orleans for the 8th and final playoff spot.

UNDER is 14-1 in Memphis' last 15 games after covering as a double-digit favorite, 20-6 in their last 26 home games and 13-3 in their last 16 home games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games. UNDER is also 6-1 in Thunder's last 7 after allowing 125+ and 17-7 in their last 24 after making 12 or more 3-point shots. These trends combine to form a 80% (70-18) system. Take the UNDER!

3* NBA Total Annihilator on Raptors/Nets OVER

The Nets are playing some of their best basketball of the season, especially on the offensive side of the ball. Brooklyn has scored 100+ in 4 straight games and are averaging 107.3 ppg over their last 8. Toronto has been an offensive juggernaut all season, as the Raptors rank 4th in the league at 104.2 ppg. Of importance here is that their offense has been even better on the road, where they are averaging 105.9 ppg.

While the Nets have found their mojo offensively, they are still struggling to get it done on the defensive side of the ball. Brooklyn comes in allowing 100.6 ppg on the season and are giving 108.0 ppg over their last 5 at home. Toronto on the other hand has really struggled defensively on the road. The Raptors are allowing 104.3 ppg away from home and allowing teams to shoot 47% from the field. The fewest points Toronto has allowed on the road in their last 12 is 98.

Adding to all of this is a strong system. The OVER is 24-3 since 1996 in games where you have a total set at 200 or more points, where the home team has won 8 or more of their last 10 games, yet are only winning between 40% to 49% of their games on the season. That's a 89% system. Take the OVER!

5* Heat/Cavs TNT Total of the Month on UNDER

The Cavaliers sit comfortably in 2nd in the east, 8 games back of Atlanta and 3 ahead of the Raptors and Bulls with just 7 games to play, but I don't see them taking their foot off the gas until they have secured the No. 2 spot. This also isn't just another opponent for Cleveland, as LeBron James will be going up against his former team in Miami, who the Cavaliers have lost twice to by double-digits, including the most recent meeting 92-106 in Miami on 3/16.

Anytime you play the Cavaliers it means something more, but the Heat are also in playoff mode. Miami holds the 7th spot in the east, thanks to a tie-breaker over Brooklyn, but are just a 1/2 game ahead of 9th place Boston and 2 in front of 10th place Charlotte. Needless to say this game means a lot to the Heat.

With the importance of this matchup for both teams, combined with the fact that we have two strong defensive teams playing in a nationally televised game on TNT, I'm expecting this one to go under the total set of 199. Miami is giving up just 95.6 ppg and the Cavs are allowing only 95.8 ppg.

UNDER is 10-2 in the Heat's last 12 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games, 21-6 in their last 27 road games versus a team with a winning home record and 8-3 in their last 11 following a double-digit loss at home. UNDER is also 5-1 in Cavs' last 6 home games, 23-10 in their last 33 after a game where they failed to cover the spread and 11-3-1 in their last 15 versus a team with a losing record. These trends combine to form a strong 76% (78-25) system. Take the UNDER!

5* NBA Total of the Month on 76ers/Lakers OVER

I'm not expecting a whole lot of defense to be played in tonight's matchup between two of the worst teams in the league. These two teams did combine for just 188 points on 3/22, but that was with the 76ers shooting a mere 36.0% from the field.

It was the Lakers best defensive effort since December of 2013, which has me confident that it's not going to repeat itself, especially considering LA will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set and their 5th straight on the road overall.

OVER is 6-1 in the Lakers last 7 games after their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day and 22-11 in their last 33 when they come in having lost 12 or more of their last 15. OVER is also 42-27 in the 76ers last 69 home games after going under the total in their last game and 7-3 in their last 10 against an opponent that allowed 100+ in their last game. These trends combine to form a strong 65% (77-42) system. Take the OVER!

5* Non-Conference Total of the Month on Clippers/Celtics UNDER

The books have set the mark too high for Sunday's showdown between the Clippers and Celtics. Boston has held each of their last 3 opponents to 93 points or less, while LA has held each of their last 4 under the century mark. These two teams combined for just 195 points in their previous meeting this season and I'm expecting a similar combined score in the rematch.

Another big key here to this one going under the mark is that both of these teams are fighting for playoff spots. The Clippers are a 1/2 game back of the Blazers for the No.4  spot and home court in the first round, while Boston is just a 1/2 game ahead of Brooklyn and 1 in front of both Indiana and Charlotte for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference.

Adding to this is a strong system. UNDER is 55-23 over the last 5 seasons when you have a total of 200 to 209.5 where the home team is revenging a loss against an opponent that is coming in off a road win by 10+ points. That's a 71% system. Take the UNDER!

3* NBA Early Bird Total Dominator on Rockets/Wizards UNDER

These early start times that come with the Sunday slate have a strong tendency to go under the total and I think we are getting plenty of value here. Both of these teams are fighting for home court in the playoffs, which is going to add to the defensive intensity. Washington is only allowing 96.5 ppg at home and are scoring just 94.4 ppg over their last 5.

These two teams combined for 207 points in the previous meeting this season and that was with both teams shooting over 46% from the field. I look for both teams to have a much harder time from the field in the rematch.

UNDER is 30-19 in the Rockets last 49 when the total is set at 200 or more points, 15-5 in the Wizards last 20 after a win by 3 points or less and 14-4 in Washington's last 18 after a combined score of 205+ in their last game. These trends combine to form a 68% (59-28) system. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Cavs/Grizzlies UNDER

The books have set the mark too high in what I feel is going to be an offensive struggle for both teams. The Grizzlies are back to playing their brand of basketball and have been putting on a defensive clinic at home of late, allowing a mere 84.7 ppg over their last 10 home games.

Adding to that is the fact that not once during this stretch did Memphis eclipse the 100-point mark offensively. Cleveland held the Grizzlies to just 91 points in the previous meeting this season and are much better defensive team now than they were in December.

UNDER is 5-0 in Grizzlies last 5 after scoring 100+ points in their last game, 4-0 in their last 4 home games against a team with a winning road record and 8-0 in their last 8 after a cover as a double digit favorite in their last game. These trends combine to form a perfect 100% (17-0) system. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Heat/Bucks UNDER

I'm expecting both of these teams to come out with a lot of energy here defensively. The Bucks are only giving up just 96.6 ppg at home and will be motivated here to snap a 6-game losing streak that has them 3.5-games ahead of 9th place Charlotte. Miami is only 2-games in front of the Hornets so they too will be motivated to get a win. The Heat will also be playing with triple-revenge, as they have lost all 3 previous meetings against Milwaukee this season.

One of the keys here is that the Heat are averaging just 92.6 ppg on the road and managed just 75 points in their last game at Oklahoma City. Milwaukee has scored 90 or fewer in 3 of their last 5 overall and Miami is only giving up 96.6 ppg on the road.

UNDER is 11-3 in the Heat's last 14 road games off a loss by 10+ points and 10-1 this season when playing against a marginal losing team that's won between 40% to 49% of their games. UNDER is also 7-2 in the Bucks last 9 after allowing 100+ points in their last game and 13-3 in their last 16 after 2 straight games with 10 or more steals. These trends combine to form a strong 82% (41-9) system. Take the UNDER!

3* NBA Total Annihilator on Heat/Thunder UNDER

The books have set the bar too high for this one. The Thunder have scored 100+ points in 22-straight games, but will be going up against a tough Miami defense without several key pieces of their offense. Durant, Ibaka, Collison are all out with injuries and Kanter is questionable to play with an ankle injury. Miami on the other hand continues to play without Chris Bosh. Another big factor here is the early start time on Sunday, which has historically led to lower-scoring games. These two teams also combined for just 180 points in the first meeting back on Jan. 20.

UNDER is 11-3 in the Heat's last 14 non-conference road games and 10-2 in their last 12 games played on Sunday. UNDER is also 19-10 in Thunder's last 29 when playing against a team with a losing record and a perfect 8-0 in their last 8 home games after finishing over the total in each of their last 4 games. These trends combine to form a 76% (48-15) system. Take the UNDER!

3* Hawks/Warriors Late Night Total Annihilator on UNDER

These two teams combined for 240 points in Atlanta in their previous meeting this season, but there's not near the hype the second time around and both teams will be playing without two of their most important plays.

Golden State won't have Klay Thompson and the Hawks will be without Kyle Korver. These are two of the best shooters in the game, that really make it difficult on opposing defenses with how much attention they have to pay to them. Not having them on the floor is going to make life much easier for both defenses, which I believe will have this one finishing well below the mark. You also have to factor in that both teams have a better understanding of what the other likes to do offensively after already facing each other.

UNDER is 6-2 in the Hawks last 8 road games and 4-1 in their last 5 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. UNDER is also 5-2 in the Warriors last 7 home games and 4-1 in their last 5 at home against a team with a winning road record. Take the UNDER!

5* Eastern Conference Total of the Month on Magic/Cavs UNDER 201.5

The books have set the mark too high for this one, which isn't a big surprise given that the Cavaliers come in off a game against the Spurs where the two teams combined for 253 points. Prior to that Cleveland had held Dallas to 94 points and the Suns to just 79 in their last two games. Orlando isn't a great defensive team, but have been playing much better on that side of the ball since making a coaching change. The Magic have held 12 of their 15 opponents under the century mark. It's also worth noting that each of the two previous meetings this season have seen 187 and 180 points. 

UNDER is 14-5 in the Cavaliers last 19 after allowing 105+ points in their last game, 8-1 in their last 9 off a win by 6 points or less and 13-4 in their last 17 games played on Sunday.  These trends combine to form a strong 78% (35-10) system. Take the UNDER!

5* NBA No Limit Top Play on Nets/76ers OVER

I'm expecting these two teams to fly over the total tonight. Brooklyn has allowed 100+ in three straight and 5 of their last 6. The only exception being a home game against a Utah team that is playing extremely well on the defensive end. The 76ers were able to snap out of their recent shooting funk with 114 points on 47% shooting in a home win over the Kings last time out and I look for that to carry over to this one. The other big key here is that the 76ers are not a strong defensive team and will gladly let this game turn into a shootout. 

OVER is 22-9 in the 76ers last 31 home games after playing two straight as a home dog, 5-0 in their last 5 against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games and 13-4 in their last 17 home games versus teams who are called for 21 or fewer fouls per game. OVER is also 4-1 in the Nets last 5 when facing an opponent who allowed 100 or more points in their last game. These trends combine to form a strong 76% (44-14) system. Take the OVER!

5* NBA No Limit Top Play on Hornets/Pistons UNDER

These two teams combined for just 184 points in their only other meeting this season and I'm expecting a similar low-scoring affair in this one. Charlotte has scored 100+ in 3 straight games and are simply not built to sustain that kind of offensive success, but in the short term it has created some great value here. The Hornets are only averaging 95.0 ppg and are a team built on their effort defensively.

Charlotte has held 5 of their last 7 opponents to 94 points or less, while the Pistons have scored 95 or fewer in 4 of their last 5. While Detroit hasn't been playing great defensively of late, they hold New Orleans to just 88 points two games ago and figure to be highly motivated to snap a 5-game losing streak.

UNDER is 14-4 in the Hornets last 18 after scoring 100+ in 2 or more consecutive games, 7-2 in their last 9 road games and 8-1 in their last 9 when coming in having won 5 or 6 of their last 7. UNDER is also 12-3 in the Pistons last 15 games after allowing 100+, 6-1 in their last 7 following a SU loss and 4-0 in their last 4 at home after a road trip of 7 or more days. These trends combine to form a 82% (51-11) system. Take the UNDER!

3* Bulls/Spurs NBA Total Annihilator on UNDER

Great situation here to back the under, as we have a nationally televised game with an early start time between two fundamentally sound defensive teams. With the injuries the Bulls are dealing with, their only hope of staying competitive is to give max effort defensively. While the Spurs are averaging 110 over their last 4, it's come against some bad defensive teams in the Kings (twice), Suns and Nuggets.

The Bulls have held the Spurs to fewer than 90 points twice in the last 3 meetings and it would come as a surprise if Chicago was able to top 90 points given their current form. San Antonio is only allowing 95.4 ppg over their last 5.

UNDER is 20-9 in the Bulls 29 road games this season and 12-3 when listed as a road dog. UNDER is also 14-6 in the Spurs last 20 non-conference games, 23-8 in their last 31 home games after scoring 120 or more in their last contest, 7-2 in their last 9 on Sunday and 12-3 in their last 15 following an ATS loss. These trends combine to form a 74% (88-31) system. Take the UNDER!

3* NBA Total Annihilator on Bulls/Pacers UNDER

Both of these teams come into this contest off a strong offensive performance. The Bulls scored 108 last night against the Thunder, while the Pacers put up 105 against the Knicks. That's going to have to public looking to back the over with this low total, but the real value here is with the under.

These two division rivals have a history of playing low-scoring games. Each of the last 4 meetings have seen a combined score of 189 or less. With the Bulls playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back and without the services of Rose, Butler or Gibson, it's highly unlikely Chicago will flirt with 100 points in back-to-back nights. The important thing here is the Bulls will bring the intensity defensively and Indiana is far from a strong offensive team and are averaging just 90.2 ppg in their last 5 against Chicago.

UNDER is 15-4 in the Bulls last 19 road games after two or more consecutive wins, 8-1 in their last 9 road games after winning at least 4 of their last 7 and 11-3 on the season when listed as a road underdog. UNDER is also 20-9 in the Pacers last 29 off 3 or more consecutive wins and a perfect 8-0 in their last 8 home games after winning 3 of their previous 4. These trends combine to form a 78% (62-17) system. Take the UNDER!

4* Thunder/Bulls TNT Total Annihilator on UNDER

The Thunder are averaging 112.2 ppg over their last 5 and seen each of their last 4 finish over the total. Their recent offensive surge along with this being a nationally televised game on TNT, has the total inflated. The UNDER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams in Chicago and 5-1 in the last 6 overall.

Chicago is without three of their better offensive players in Rose, Butler and Gibson and have no choice but to turn their focus to the defensive end of the floor to remain competitive. The Bulls are only averaging 90.4 ppg and allowing 89.2 ppg over their last 5. Big key here is the Thunder won't be looking to push the tempo after playing a grueling overtime game at Philadelphia last night. Adding to that is the fact that this will be Oklahoma City's 3rd game in 4 days and 5th in the last 8 days overall. Plus, Chicago comes in off 2-days rest, so we can expect max energy defensively here.

UNDER is 31-14 in the Bulls last 45 off a home win, 14-4 in their 18 after playing two straight games as an underdog, 7-1 in their last 8 against a team with a winning record and 6-1 in their last 7 against the Western Conference. UNDER is also 4-1 in the Thunder's last 5 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 15-4 in their last 19 after a combined score of 205+ in 4 or more straight games. These trends combine to form a 75% (77-25) system. Take the UNDER!

5* NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month on Rockets/Hawks UNDER

These two teams combined for just 203 points in the Hawks 104-97 win at Houston in their previous meeting this season. That contest had a total of just 197 points and now we find the total sitting even higher with the Rockets playing without potential MVP James Harden, who had 18 points and 14 assists in that earlier defeat.

This will be Houston's first game this season without Harden and not having him on the floor is going to have their offense struggling to get going. It also wouldn't come as a big surprise with Harden suspended for just 1-game if the rest of the Rockets players didn't take this game all that seriously.

A lot is made of the Hawks efficiency offensively, which covers up the fact that this is a very good defensive team that is only allowing 95.1 ppg at home. It's also worth noting that Atlanta has scored 100+ just once in their last 6 games and have not had a game finish with a combined score of 200 or more since Feb. 9.

UNDER is 24-15 in the Rockets last 39 games with a total set at 200 or more points and 39-19 in their last 58 road games when they come in having scored 100+ in 4 straight games. UNDER is also 15-4 in Houston's last 19 in the 2nd half against teams who are outscoring opponents by 6+ points/game and 20-8 in the Hawks last 28 home games in the 2nd half against teams with a winning record.

Adding to this is a strong system. UNDER is 70-28 since 1996 in games where you have a team off a road win against a division rival (Hawks) against an opponent off a close home win by 3 points or less (Rockets). That's a 71% system in play tonight. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Total No Brainer on Raptors/76ers UNDER

The books have completely missed the mark in this one. Each of the last two meetings between these two teams have seen a combined score of 184 or less, including a mere 177 points in the most recent meeting at Philadelphia.

I'm expecting a similar low-scoring affair tonight, as we have a highly motivated Toronto team that is looking to snap a 5-game losing streak and a Philadelphia team that is averaging just 86.9 ppg in division matchups and will be without their leading scorer Robert Covington.

UNDER is 10-0 in the 76ers last 10 off a blowout loss by 20+ points, 21-9 in Philadelphia's last 30 after playing their last previous game as a road underdog, 20-6 in their last 26 when revenging a same season loss and 8-3 in the Raptors last 11 off a SU loss. These trends combine to form a 77% (59-18) system. Take the UNDER!

4* Pelicans/Nuggets NBA Total Annihilator on UNDER

This is way to many points for this matchup. The Pelicans are still without Davis and Anderson and are averaging just 96.5 ppg on the road for the season. The Nuggets on the other hand are a complete mess offensively right now. Denver hasn't scored 100 points in 5 straight and have failed to surpass 82 points in 3 of their last 5. Adding to this is the fact that the last time these two teams met, they combined for a mere 178 points.

UNDER is 12-3 in the Nuggets last 15 off a blowout loss by 20+ points, 21-6 in their last 27 against teams who are called for 21 or less fouls/game and 10-1 in their last 11 in the 2nd half of the season versus teams who average 7 or less steals per game. UNDER is also 6-2 in the Pelicans last 8 road games, 7-2 in their last 9 against at team that's won less than 40% of their games and 7-1 in their last 8 against an opponent who allowed 100+ points in their last contest. These trends add up to form a 81% (63-15) system. Take the UNDER!

3* Hornets/Magic NBA Total Dominator on UNDER

This game has a defensive battle written all over it, as neither of these teams are capable of a whole lot offensively. The Hornets come in averaging a mere 91.6 ppg over their last 5, while the Magic are scoring just 93.0 ppg over their last 5. These two division rivals are very familiar with one another and this will be their 4th meeting this season, which adds to the value here.

UNDER is 13-4 in the Hornets last 17 games overall, 6-1 in their last 7 road games and 5-1 in their last 6 against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games. UNDER is 7-1 in the Magic's last 8 overall, 6-1 in their last 7 home games and 4-0 in their last 4 off a SU loss. These trends combine to form a 84% (41-8) system. Take the UNDER!

4* Spurs/Suns NBA Total Annihilator on UNDER

I'm expecting a much lower scoring game than the total that's been set for this matchup. Each of the previous two meetings between these two teams this season have seen 195 or less combined points and the last time they played in Phoenix they combined for just 183.

The big key here is that both of these teams are coming in on little rest. The Spurs will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and 3rd in the last 4 days. The Suns also are playing 3 in 4 and 6 in the last 9 days. Neither team is going to be looking to push the pace in this one and both teams are going to be highly motivated defensively with just 4.5-games separating the two in the standings.

UNDER is 11-2 in the Spurs last 13 road games after going over the total in their last contest, 21-9 in the Suns last 30 games in the 2nd half against teams that are called for 21 or fewer fouls, 4-0 in San Antonio's last 4 when playing on 0 days rest and 6-2 in Phoenix's last 8 games against a team that's won 60% or more of their games. These trends combine to form a 75% (38-13) system. Take the UNDER!

4* Thunder/Blazers NBA Total Annihilator on Thunder/Blazers UNDER

I believe we are getting some great value here on the UNDER, as the books have inflated the total in this one due both teams coming off high-scoring games and due to the fact that this will be a nationally televised game on ESPN.

The key here is that these two teams have a history of finishing below the mark. In fact, the UNDER is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings overall and 4-1 in the last 5 played in Portland. Another key factor is that we have the Thunder playing without Durant and coming in off an overtime game last night against the Suns. This will also be Oklahoma City's 5th game in the last 7 days overall. The Thunder simply aren't going to be able to play at a fast pace. It's also worth noting that the Blazers have held each of their last 5 opponents to 98 or fewer points and are only averaging 93.0 ppg over their last 3.

UNDER is 14-2 in the Trail Blazers last 16 home games with a total greater than 200, 12-4 in their last 16 home games after playing two straight games as a favorite and 8-2 in their last 10 after scoring 100+ in their last game. UNDER is also 22-8-2 in Oklahoma City's last 32 against a team with a winning record, 4-0 in their last 4 versus a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 4-1 in their last 5 following a SU loss. These trends combine to form a 79% (64-17) system. Take the UNDER!

3* NBA Total No Brainer on Cavaliers/Pacers UNDER

These two teams met earlier this month in Indiana and the Pacers came away with a surprising 103-99 home win, which is one of just two losses the Cavaliers have suffered over their last 20 games. While that last meeting finished above the mark set for this one, I look for a much lower scoring game in the rematch.

Indiana is going to be motivated against James, while Cleveland will be motivated with revenge. That's not the only key factor favoring a low-scoring game. The Cavaliers will be without starting point guard Kyrie Irving and aren't going to be looking to push the pace in the 2nd game of a back-to-back. Keep in mind that the Pacers are allowing just 96.4 ppg at home and Cleveland is giving up a mere 94.2 ppg over their last 5.

UNDER is 9-2 in the Cavaliers last 11 road games against a team with a losing home record, 21-5 in their last 26 against an opponent who allowed 100 or more in their last game and 10-3 in their last 13 following a SU win. UNDER is also 7-3 in the Pacers last 10 home games against a team with a winning road record and 12-3 in their last 15 home games against teams who force 14 or fewer turnovers/game. These trends combine to form a 79% (59-16) system. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Total Dominator on Raptors/Mavericks UNDER

The books have set the mark too high in this one, as I don't see this game reaching 200 points. While these are two of the highest scoring teams in the NBA on the season, Toronto is averaging just 92.0 ppg over their last 5 and the Mavericks are putting up just 95.4 ppg over their last 5. It's also important to note that both teams have also been limiting opponents on the defensive end. The Raptors are allowing just 90.6 ppg over their last 5 and Dallas is giving up just 96.4.

Dallas is still trying to get use to playing with Rondo and are also adjusting to a new rotation with the addition of Amar'e Stoudemire. It's going to take some time before they get going offensively. This will be the Mavericks 4th game in the last 6 days and the Raptors 4th in the last 5. Neither team figures to be playing at a fast pace due to the lack of rest, which also adds some great value to this one going below the mark.

UNDER is 8-1 in the Mavericks last 9 home games after going under the total in 2 or more consecutive games, 7-0 in their last 7 against the Eastern Conference and 5-0-1 in their last 6 at home against a team that's won 60% or more of their road games. UNDER is also 9-1 in the Raptors last 10 after a close loss by 3 points or less and 13-4 in their last 17 against teams outscoring opponents by 3+ points/game. These trends combine to form a 88% (42-6) system. Take the UNDER!

3* NBA Eastern Conference Total Annihilator on Bulls/Bucks UNDER

I'm expecting a low scoring affair tonight between these two Central Division rivals. Both teams come in playing well and there's just 3.5-game separating the two. Chicago has won 5 of 6, while the Bucks have taken 9 of their last 11.

Not only am I expecting both teams to bring the defensive intensity, but the Bucks current form adds some value here to this one. Milwaukee was active at the trade deadline, trading away Brandon Knight, while acquiring Michael Carter-Williams, Tyler Ennis and Miles Plumlee. Carter-Williams hasn't played in either of the Bucks first two games since the break and is doubtful tonight. Milwaukee also hasn't any time to practice and form some chemistry, as they get ready to play the second of a back-to-back set and 3rd in 4 overall.

Each of the Bucks first two games since the break have been extremely low-scoring largely due to this. They combined for just 170 points in a 89-81 win over the Nuggets on Friday and just 183 in yesterday's 86-97 loss to Atlanta. Adding to this is the fact that each of the first two meetings this season have combined for 182 or less.

UNDER is 15-5 in the Bucks last 20 off 2 or more consecutive games that finished under the total, 9-1 in their last 10 when their opponent scores 100 or more in their last game, 8-1 in their last 9 against at team that's won 60% or more of their games and 4-1 in their last 5 when playing on no rest. UNDER is also 21-12 in the Bulls last 33 with a total of 190 to 199.5 and 32-16 when playing 4 or less games in 10 days. These trends combine to form a 71% (89-36) system. Take the UNDER!

5* Western Conference Total of the Month on Grizzlies/Blazers UNDER

The books have set the mark too high in this one. Memphis will be playing their first game since the All-Star break and will be looking to start off strong after going into the break with an embarrassing 89-105 loss at Oklahoma City. The Trail Blazers are also going to be motivated here after an ugly 76-92 loss at Utah in their first game back from the break.

Portland is a strong offensive team, but will take some time to adjust to the additions of Alonzo Gee and Arron Afflalo. I look for the Trail Blazers to struggle to get going offensively here against one of the best defensive teams in the league. Portland is better defensively than people give them credit for, especially at home where they are allowing just 93.1 ppg.

UNDER is 19-9 in Portland's 28 home games this season, 22-10 in their last 32 home games after failing to cover the spread last time out and 27-12 in their last 39 off an upset loss by 10+ points.

Adding to this is a strong system. UNDER is 63-23 over the last 5 seasons on Sunday when you have a total of 190 to 199.5, with a team playing just their 2nd game in 5 days. That's a 73% long-term system backing this one to go below the mark. Take the UNDER!

3* NBA Early Bird Over/Under Total Annihilator on Cavs/Knicks UNDER

The books have set the mark too high for this early matchup on Sunday between the Knicks and Cavaliers. Cleveland returned from the All-Star break with a blowout 127-89 win at Washington on ESPN and I just don't see them being 100% invested in this one. New York is one of the worst teams in the league and the Cavaliers know they can show up for half this game and come away with a win.

While Cleveland is just going through the motions, I expect the Knicks to come out with a lot of energy at home against LeBron James and company. New York not only is one of the worst offensive teams in the NBA (92.4 ppg), they are 28th in the league in pace (92.9). The Knicks know they have know chance if this turns into a shootout, which will have them trying to limit the number of possessions in this game.

UNDER is 12-3 in the Cavaliers last 15 games played on Sunday, 22-3 in their last 25 after 5 or more consecutive games that finished over the total and 7-1 in their last 8 road games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their home games. UNDER is also 15-6 in the Knicks last 21 home games and 5-1 in their last 6 off a SU loss by more than 10 points. These trends combine to form a dynamite 81% (61-14) system. Take the UNDER!

5* NBA No Limit Total Top Play on Magic/Wizards UNDER

I believe the books have set the total too high for tonight's matchup between the Wizards and Magic. Washington is coming of a 114-77 home win over the Nets, where they held Brooklyn to just 33.8% shooting. The Wizards had lost their previous 5, so I'm not expecting them to relax at all and I look for the energy to be there again defensively at home.

Orlando on the other hand has been a much stronger defensive team since they fired head coach Jacque Vaughn. The Magic held the Lakers to just 97-points in their first game without Vaughn and held Chicago to 98 yesterday. Prior to these two games, Orlando had allowed 100+ in 14 straight games.

Adding to this is the fact that these two teams have a history of playing low-scoring games. Each of the last have seen a combined score of 191 or less and the Wizards are holding the Magic to just 91.5 ppg over the last 4.

UNDER is 18-7-1 in Orlando's last 26 road games versus a team that's won more than 60% of their home games and 14-6-1 in their last 21 when playing on 0 days rest. UNDER is also 4-1 in Washington's last 5 games following a SU win, 4-1 in their last 5 at home against a team with a lsing record and 19-7-1 in their last 27 when playing on 1 days rest. These trends add up to form a 73% (59-22) system. Take the UNDER!

3* NBA Total Annihilator on Bulls/Magic UNDER

These two teams combined for 235 points at Chicago back on Jan. 12 and I believe it has forced the books to overreact and set this total a lot higher than what it should be. Keep in mind that the total in the previous contest was just 190.

Chicago is coming in off an impressive 107-72 win at New Orleans last night, snapping their 3-game losing streak. While the Bulls will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, Jimmy Butler was the only player to play more than 30 minutes (34). Chicago has some revenge on their minds against the Magic and I look for them to come out motivated defensively in this one. 

Orlando rallied to beat the Lakers 103-97 in their first game after firing their head coach and held LA to a mere 40.2% shooting. It was the first time in 13 games that the Magic held an opponent under 45%. I look for them to come out with another strong defensive effort in this one.

UNDER is 32-17 over the last 3 seasons when the Bulls are playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, 13-3 in Chicago's last 16 road games off a win by 10+ points and 12-3 in the Magic's last 15 after a win by 6-points or less. These add up to form a strong 71% (57-23) system. Take the UNDER!

5* NBA No Limit Total Top Play on Pacers/Cavs UNDER

I'm expecting a much lower scoring game than what the books are anticipating with this total. Cleveland comes in off an impressive offensive performance against the Clippers, but I just don't see them coming out with that same level of intensity offensively on the road against a bad team like the Pacers in the second game of a back-to-back set.

Indiana knows that their only chance of winning this game is to slow down the tempo and really turn up the energy defensively. The Pacers have done a pretty good job of that at home, where they are holding opponents to just 96.3 ppg on the season.

On the flip side of this, Indiana figures to have a difficult time scoring against a Cavaliers defense that is allowing just 90.4 ppg in their last 5. Adding to this is the fact Cleveland hasn't allowed 100 points in 10 straight and should have no problem slowing down a Pacers offense that is only averaging 95.5 ppg at home.

UNDER is 11-2 in the Pacers 13 home games this season against teams who are forcing 14 or fewer turnovers/game, 10-1 in the Cavaliers last 11 road games against teams outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game, 7-1 in Cleveland's last 8 road games against a team with a losing home record and 22-4 in their last 26 against an opponent that allowed 100 or more in their last game. These trends combine to form a 86% (50-8) system. Take the UNDER!

5* NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month on Nuggets/Celtics OVER

I'm not expecting a whole lot of defense to be played in this one. Both the Celtics and Nuggets will be in the 2nd game of a back-to-back and not a whole lot of motivation here given how poorly these two teams have been playing of late. Denver is just 1-10 in their last 11 games, while the Celtics are a 7-16 in their last 23.

Both teams come in off less than impressive efforts defensively. The Celtics allowed New York to score 97 points on 49.4% shooting last night, while Denver allowed the 76ers lackluster offense to put up 105 points. The Nuggets also gave up 104 in their previous game against the offensively challenged Hornets.

OVER is 26-13 in the Nuggets last 39 revenging a same season loss, 21-9 in their last 30 road games after playing two straight games as a favorite and 6-1 in their last 7 against a team with a losing record. OVER is also 19-9 in the Celtics last 28 home games against poor pressure defensive teams (14 or less turnovers/game), 16-7-1 in their last 24 following a SU win and 4-0 in their last 4 against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games.

Adding to all of this is a strong system. OVER is 50-22 over the last 5 seasons in games with a total of 200 to 209.5 points that features two bad teams (25% to 40%) facing off in the 2nd half of the season. That's a 69% system. Take the OVER!

5* NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Month on Raptors/Bucks OVER

I'm expecting a very high scoring game tonight between the Bucks and Raptors. Toronto comes in averaging 116.8 ppg over their last 5 contests, while Milwaukee is averaging a respectable 103.0 ppg over their last 5 outings.

In the previous meeting this season at Toronto in the series, these two combined for 207 points with the Bucks only managing 83 points on 36.5% shooting. I look for Milwaukee to provide a lot more offense this time, which should have this one flying well over the mark set by the books. Adding to this is the fact that the OVER is 8-0 in the Bucks last 8 trips to Toronto.

This is also a solid spot to back the OVER with the Raptors off back-to-back road wins by 5 points or less. Teams in this spot have seen the OVER go 118-65 (65%) since 1996.

The OVER is 14-3 in the Bucks last 17 games in the 2nd half of the season against teams who are allowing opponents to shoot 46% or better from the field, 14-4 in their last 18 road games when listed as an underdog of 6.5 to 9 points and 11-2 in their last 13 when they come in having won 4 of 5. OVER is also 11-2 in Raptors last 13 after allowing 105+ in 2 straight games and a perfect 5-0 in their last 5 off a SU win. These trends combine to form a dynamite 83% (55-11) system. Take the OVER!

4* Nuggets/Grizzlies TNT Total Annihilator on UNDER

I'm expecting a low scoring contest tonight between the Nuggets and Grizzlies. Memphis has surrendered 100+ points just once in their last 8 games and during this stretch are holding opponents to just 92.3 ppg. Denver has eclipsed the century mark just once in their last 4 games and are only averaging 98.4 ppg on the road.

The Nuggets come in off a strong defensive effort last night in a 93-85 win at New Orleans and I look for them to bring that same intensity defensively against the Grizzlies, especially with this being a nationally televised game on TNT. This should also have Memphis bringing their "A" game defensively.

However, the big key here is pace. The Grizzlies come in ranked 26th in the league with a pace of 94.2. While Denver is 5th at 98.3, the Nuggets won't be playing up to their normal tempo. Partly due to Memphis being able to control the pace at home and mainly due to Denver playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and their 4th in 5 days overall.

UNDER is 19-6 in the Grizzlies last 25 off a division road win, 20-8 in their last 28 after a blowout win by 15+ points and 4-0 in their last 4 home games against a team with a road winning % of less than 40%. UNDER is also 14-4-1 in Nuggets last 19 when their opponent scores 100+ in their previous game, 6-1 in their last 7 games played on Thursday and 5-0 in their last 5 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. These trends combine to form a dynamite 78% (68-19) system. Take the UNDER!

3* NBA Total Dominator on Pistons/76ers UNDER

The 76ers have seen each of their last 5 and 12 of their last 13 finish UNDER the total and I'm expecting that trend to continue tonight against the Pistons. Philadelphia comes in averaging a horrific 89.5 ppg and it doesn't figure to get any better with leading scorer Tony Wroten out with a torn ACL and second leading score Michael Carter-Williams questionable with the flu.

While the Pistons have allowed 100+ in each of their last 4 games, they are certainly capable of keeping this 76ers offense in check. On top of this, Detroit doesn't figure to be playing up to their typical pace. The Pistons will not only be in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, but will be playing their 4th game in the last 5 days. It's also worth noting that Detroit is without one of their top offensive playmakers in Brandon Jennings, who was recently lost for the year with a torn Achilles.

UNDER is 7-1 in the Pistons last 8 games when they come in having covered 3 of their last 4 and 0-3 this season when playing their 3rd road game in 5 days. UNDER is also 9-2 in 76ers last 11 after 2 straight games where they shot 39% or worse and 14-4 in their last 18 revenging a same season loss to an opponent. These trends combine to form a 83% (33-7) system. Take the UNDER!

5* NBA No Limit Total Top Play on Pacers/Magic UNDER

The books have completely missed the mark on this one. The Magic come into this game ranked 24th in scoring at 95.7 ppg and the Pacers are 27th at 94.7 ppg. We are simply getting an inflated total here due to Orlando having gone OVER the total in each of their last 7 games, including each of their last two with totals of 209 and 206.5.

You have to go all the way back to March of 2010 to find the last time these two teams played a game with a combined score of at least 209 points. Each of their last 20 games in the series have finished below the mark set for this game, including an earlier matchup this season which saw a combined score of just 181 points.

UNDER is 13-4 in the Magic's last 17 games played on Sunday and 87-2 in their last 10 against a team with a losing record. UNDER is also 14-3-1 in the Pacers' last 18 games against a team with a losing record. 

Adding to all of this a strong system. UNDER is 24-5 since 1996 in games with a total of 200 or more points when you have an average team that is +/- 3 ppg differential (Pacers) against a poor team with a -3 to -7 ppg differential, that trailed in their last 2 games by 10 or more at the half. That's a 83% system backing this one to go below the mark. Take the UNDER!

4* Heat/Bulls NBA Total No Brainer on UNDER

Just as I expected, the Bulls carried over the momentum from their 104-81 blowout win at home of the Spurs on Thursday with a 102-98 win at Dallas the next night. I look for Chicago to maintain their renewed focus on the defensive end against the Heat, which should have this game finishing well below the mark.

Slowing down Miami doesn't figure to be too difficult a task, as the Heat have failed scored fewer than 90 points in each of their last 3 games and have topped 100 just once in their last 11 games. It's also worth noting that Miami plays at the slowest pace of any team in the league and Chicago doesn't figure to be pushing the tempo here in what will be their 3rd game in 4 days.

These two teams played back in the middle of December and combined for just 168 points in a 93-75 Bulls wins at Miami. It was the third straight in the series that finished with 183 or less combined score.

UNDER is a perfect 10-0 in the Heat's 10 games played in the month of January and 13-4 in their last 17 games played as a road underdog. UNDER is also 15-4 in the Bulls last 19 home games with a total set between 185 and 189.5 points. These trends combine to form a dynamite 83% (38-8) system. Take the UNDER!

3* NBA Total Dominator on Knicks/Magic UNDER

The books have set the bar too high for this one. These two teams combined for just 192 points in New York back on Nov. 12 and that's the same kind of outcome I'm expecting to see tonight. This line has simply been inflated due to the Magic going OVER the total in 6 straight, including a 246 combined score in their last game against Detroit.

The key here is that the Magic's last 6 games have come against the likes of the Blazers, Bulls, Rockets, Grizzlies, Thunder and Pistons, who are all very capable offensive teams. The Knicks are not anywhere close to being a good offensive team, as they come in averaging 92.8 ppg. Only the 76ers at 90.1 ppg average fewer. New York hasn't topped the century mark since late December (11 straight games) and have seen the UNDER go 16-5 in their 21 home games.

It's also worth mentioning that neither of these teams like to play at a frantic pace. In fact, the Knicks play at the second slowest pace in the league at 92.6, while Orlando is 16th at 96.1. With the game being played at New York and the Knicks well rested (just 2nd game in last 4 days), I look for them to control the tempo, which should have this one finishing well below the mark.

UNDER is 13-5 in the Magic's last 18 road games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their home games, 16-6 in their last 22 road games with a total set above 200 points, and 15-2 in their last 17 road games when they come having lost at least 8 of their last 10. UNDER is 12-3 in Knicks last 15 at home, and 5-1 in their last 6 at home against a team with a losing road record. These trends combine to form a 78% (61-17) system. Take the UNDER!

5* NBA Western Conference Total of the Month on Spurs/Blazers OVER

This will be the 3rd meeting between these two teams this season and both of the previous matchups have seen plenty of offense. The Spurs and Blazers combined for 203 points in Portland back on Dec. 15 and a few days later combined for 248 in a triple-overtime thriller at San Antonio. Adding to this is that 8 of the last 10 in the series have seen at least 200 points scored.

A big key here is that the Spurs are expected to get back a big piece of their offense, as Kawhi Leonard is upgraded as probable. Leonard hasn't played since Dec. 15 and is San Anotonio's leading scorer at 15.2 ppg. 

Portland comes in averaging 105.1 ppg on the road and are giving up 100.6 ppg, while the Spurs are averaging 106.8 ppg at home and allowing 101.8 ppg. With the Spurs getting back one of their top scorers and Portland coming in with fresh legs (just their 2nd game in the last 5 days), I look for both teams to eclipse the century mark as this one flies over the total.

OVER is 4-0 in the Trail Blazers last 4 games played on Friday. It's also 7-0 in the Spurs last 7 home games against teams who average 53+ rebounds/game, 4-0 in their 4 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games and 4-0 in their last 4 versus the Northwest Division. These trends combine to form a perfect 100% (19-0) system. Take the OVER!

5* Eastern Conference Total of the Month on Celtics/Hawks OVER

These two teams combined for 214 points in the Hawks 109-105 home win back on Dec. 2. I'm expecting even more offensive fireworks in the rematch. The Celtics just put up 108 points on the Pelicans at home last time out and are averaging 104.7 ppg at home on the season. Atlanta has scored 100+ in 3 straight and are averaging 104.1 ppg on the road.

One of the big keys here is that both of these teams do an excellent job of sharing the basketball offensively. Atlanta averages 26 assists per game and Boston is right behind at 25. I look for the offenses to have their way in this one, as both teams don't figure to have a whole lot of energy left to use up on defense.

Hawks are playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back and 3rd in 4 days overall. I just don't see them giving max effort on defense here, especially with games against the Raptors and Bulls on deck this weekend. Celtics are playing with a day off, but this is their 4th game in the last 6 days. Boston also has a lot of new faces with their recent trades and aren't going to have the chemistry defensively to slow down an offense like the Hawks.

OVER is 5-1 in Atlanta's last 6 when playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and 32-16 in their last 48 when they come in having successfully covered the spread in 5 or more consecutive games. OVER is also 12-4 in the Celtics last 16 when they come in having lost 2 of 3 and 15-5 ATS in their last 20 off an upset win as an underdog.

Adding to this is a strong a system. OVER is 41-15 since 1996 in games with a total of 200 to 209.5, where you have a team that covered the spread last time out (Celtics) against an opponent that has covered in 6 or more straight games (Hawks). That's a 73% system. Take the OVER!

3* NBA Total Annihilator on Magic/Trail Blazers OVER

The books have completely missed the mark on this total. A big reason for the low total here is the fact that Portland comes in having gone under the total in 4 of their last 5 and the Magic have finished below the mark in each of their last two.

The key here is that Orlando is playing in the 2nd game off a back-to-back set and their 3rd straight road game overall. That's an awful situation to be in against one of Trail Blazers, who have been dominant at home. Portland has not shot the ball well at all in their last two games. They hit just 39.8% from the field against the Lakers on Monday and only 42.1% against Miami on Thursday. The Trail Blazers are going to be motivated here to get their offense going and Orlando simply isn't going to have the energy defensively to stop them.

The other key here is I'm not expecting a ton of intensity from Portland on the defensive side of the ball. It's not easy getting motivated to play a bad team like the Magic and it's even harder to give max effort on defense when you are scoring at will offensively.

It's also worth noting that both of these teams tend to find themselves in high scoring games on Saturday. The OVER is 18-7 in the Magic's last 25 games on Saturday and 23-11 in the Trail Blazers last 34 on Saturday.

The OVER is also a solid 4-1 in Orlando's last 5 games when playing on no rest, 23-12 in the Trail Blazers last 35 with a total set at 190 to 199.5 points and 31-15 in Portland's last 46 when they come in having won 8 of their last 10.

Adding to all of this is a strong system. OVER is 35-10 since 1996 in games with a total of 190 to 199.5, where you have a team that has allowed 85 points or less (Portland) against an opponent that has scored 90 or less in 3 straight games. That's a 78% system. Take the OVER!

4* NBA Situational Total Dominator on Pacers/76ers OVER

When you consider the Pacers are scoring just 95.4 ppg and giving up just 96.8 ppg, your first instinct would be to take the UNDER given the 76ers come in averaging a mere 90.5 ppg. I believe the books have over-adjusted this total, creating some big time value on the OVER.

Indiana isn't going to bring the same defensive intensity against a horrible team like the 76ers, as they would against other teams, especially with how bad the 76ers are defensively. You also have to factor in the Pacers are coming off an overtime game against the Celtics last night. Philadelphia is giving up 106.7 ppg at home. Keep in mind the Pacers have scored and allowed 100+ in each of their last 3 games.

OVER is 9-1 in the Pacers last 10 when playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and 8-1 in their last 9 road games after they failed to cover the spread last time out. OVER is also 29-16 in 76ers last 45 home games after playing their last game on the road.

Adding to all of this is a strong system. The OVER is 31-5 since 1996 in games with a total of 180 to 189.5 points, where you have a team off an upset win as underdog of 10 or more points, that are playing 6 or more games in 10 days. That's a 86% system. Take the OVER!

5* NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month on Pistons/Mavs OVER

These two teams should have no problem eclipsing the total set for this matchup. Dallas comes into this game allowing a league-best 109.5 ppg and have been even better at home, putting up 111.8 ppg. With the Pistons having just played last night in a closely contested game at San Antonio and this being their 3rd game in the last 4 days, Detroit isn't going to have the energy to slow down this Dallas offensive attack.

The Pistons are going to have rely on their offense to keep them in this one and I expect them to have no problem providing enough here to push this game well over the mark. The Pistons are averaging 107.8 ppg over their 6-game winning streak and Dallas is giving up an average of 102.6 ppg at home.

It's also worth noting that these two teams played recently in Detroit and combined for 223 points in a 117-106 Mavs win back on Dec. 17. It was the third straight meeting in this series that saw at least 215 points.

OVER is 13-4 in Pistons last 17 games against a team that's won 70% or more of their games, 12-1 in their last 13 against the Western Conference's Southwest division, 28-9 in their last 37 when playing their 3rd game in 4 days and 23-8 in the Mavs last 31 after playing 3 straight on the road. These trends combine to form a 78% (76-22) system. Take the OVER!

5* NBA Southeast Division Total of the Year on Magic/Hornets OVER

We are getting some exceptional value here due to both these teams coming off low-scoring games last night. Charlotte connected on a franchise worst 28.7% of their field goal attempts in a 77-98 loss at Oklahoma City, while the Magic managed just 89 points in a 89-98 defeat at home to the Cavaliers.

Keep in mind that these two teams played recently in Charlotte back on Nov. 21. The total for that game was just 191 points and they combined to score 205. It was the 3rd time in the last 4 meetings these teams combined for at least 205 points. I look for this trend to continue when these two division rivals square off tonight.

Another big key here is that both of teams are playing on little rest, which I believe will lead to little to no intensity on the defensive end. Orlando will be playing in their 3rd game in 4 nights and 5th in 9 nights, while the Hornets will be playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and 6th in 9 days.

OVER is 6-1 in Magic's last 7 games against a team with a losing record and 8-3 in the Hornets last 11 games against a team with a losing record. OVER is also 8-3 in Charlotte's last 11 at home and 14-5 in their last 19 off a loss by more than 10 points. These trends combine to form a 75% (36-12) system backing this one to go above the mark. Take the OVER!

4* Lakers/Bulls Over/Under Total No Brainer on UNDER

These Christmas Day games have a strong history of going UNDER the total and I think we are getting some great value here in tonight's showdown between the Bulls/Lakers. Chicago has turned up the defensive intensity of late. They have allowed 5 of their last 6 opponents under 100-points and I look for them to have no problem keeping this Lakers team in check.

The key here is that with this being such a big game, I look for the Lakers to also come out with their best defensive efforts of the season. Each of the last 9 meetings in this series have finished with fewer points than the total set and over the last 3 seasons these two teams have averaged a combined score of just 190 points. 

UNDER is 50-30 (63%) in Chicago's last 80 games against horrible teams that are getting outscored by 6+ points/game. UNDER is also 6-1 in Lakers last 7 against a team with a winning record. 

Adding to all of this is a strong system in play. UNDER is 100-54 since 1996 when you have a total set at 200 or more points where the road team comes in having covered 4 of their last 5 games and are only winning 25% to 40% of their games. That's a 65% long-term system. Take the UNDER!

3* Wizards/Knicks Early Bird Total Annihilator on UNDER

These two teams combined for just 181 points in their earlier matchup this season back on Nov. 4. I'm expecting another low-scoring battle between these two in the Christmas Day opener. NBA players are use to playing this early in the morning and I look for it to lead to poor shooting and a slower pace than what we would typically see. Last year the Bulls/Nets combined for 173 points in the opener on Christmas Day. In 2012, the Celtics and Nets only managed to combine for 169. 

The other key here is that I'm expecting both teams to come out with some energy defensively. The Wizards are going to be motivated here to get a win after losing each of their last two at home. The Knicks on the other hand will be trying to avoid losing a franchise worst 8th straight game at home in what will be their 50th appearance on Christmas. 

UNDER is 12-4 in Washington's last 16 games against poor defensive teams that are allowing 99+ points/game and 8-1 in their last 9 against strong 3-point shooting teams that are making 36% or more from the outside. UNDER is also 8-1 in the Knicks last 9 home games when listed as an underdog. These trends combine to form a 82% (28-6) system. Take the UNDER!

5* NBA Western Conference Total of the Month on Suns/Mavs OVER

I believe we are catching some great value here on the OVER due to the Mavericks struggles offensively in their first two games since acquiring Rajon Rondo. Dallas was able to overcome a slow start last night against the Hawks with a 64 point second half and I look for them to carry over that momentum offensively to tonight's matchup against the Suns. Phoenix is also going to be playing with a lot of confidence offensively, as they just swept a 3-game road trip, where they averaged 104.7 ppg.

The big key here is that both of these teams aren't very strong defensively. The Mavericks come in allowing 102.5 ppg and the Suns are even worse at 103.1 ppg. Both of these offenses like to push the pace and I believe it's going to result in this one flying over the total of 213.5.

OVER is 10-1 in Mavericks last 11 games when their starters combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day, 8-2 in their last 10 after scoring 100 or more points in their last game and 4-0 in their last 4 when playing with no rest. OVER is also 4-1 in Suns last 5 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games and 9-3 in their last 12 versus the Western Conference.

Adding to all of this is a strong system in play. The OVER is 34-9 since 1996 when you have a total of 210 or more points with the home team coming off a win by 10 or more points against an opponent that is off a close loss by 3-points or less. That's a 79% system backing this one to go over the mark. Take the OVER!

4* NBA Total Dominator on Heat/Celtics UNDER

I think the Celtics are going to struggle on offense without Rajon Rondo so this total is a little too high. The Celtics are also coming off back to back performances of shooting over 55% from the floor, and that’s a trend that isn’t going to hold but probably helped bump this total up a little bit.  Plus Boston fits a great system where road teams with a total above 200 coming off 3 straight blowout wins of 15+ points are 27-6 (82%) for the UNDER since 1996.  

Miami has not played with too many totals above 200 this year and they have still trended pretty hard towards the UNDER, going below the number in six of their last 9 despite frequently seeing over/unders 10 points lower than this one.  Miami fits a system that says to take the UNDER when a team has allowed 105 or more in two straight games and they are playing a team off a 15+ point blowout win.  The UNDER is 93-57 (62%) in those situations the last five years.

No Bosh for Miami and no Rando for the Celtics means less offense for both teams.  

5* NBA Over/Under Total of the Month on Sixers/Magic UNDER

Teams tend to not shoot quite as well on Sundays as they do the rest of the week.  This normally means less scoring for good shooting teams and bad offensive rebounding teams (since they won’t get many second chance points.)  Today we have both teams fitting the bill which really has me liking the UNDER here.

The Magic are a good 3-point shooting team that hits 37.7% of their 3 point attempts on the year.  However, when the total is between 190-199.5 on Sundays a team is making 36% or more of their 3-point attempts, the UNDER is 119-68 (63.6%) the last five seasons.

Neither team hits the glass very well.  Orlando is averaging only 9 offensive rebounds per game against teams that normally give up 11.  Philadelphia is getting out-rebounded by five boards per game.  Both of these stats fit up favorable situations for our under.

On Sundays when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points and a team is averaging less than 11 rebounds per game, the UNDER is 348-230 (60.2%) since 1996.  In the same situation of games on Sundays and totals in the 190s with teams getting out rebounded by 5+ boards per game, the UNDER is 33-10 (76.7%) since 1996.  Take the UNDER here today.

5* NBA Non-Conference Total of the Year on Hornets/Jazz OVER

Both of these teams played last night and their key players logged a lot of minutes.  When NBA players get tired their defensive effort is the first to go so I think we’ll see this one easily go over the total tonight.

The Jazz have now gone over in 5 of their last six, having shot over 50% and scoring more than 100 points in their last three games.  Last night they played in Orlando and all five starters logged over 30 minutes.  

Charlotte last night got the opportunity to get their offense fine tuned against the Sixers and scored 109 points.  Walker played 38 minutes and Jefferson 36 while Kidd-Gilchrist and Henderson both played over 30.  The Bobcats have now gone over the total in 4 of their last 5, 6 of their last 8, and 11 of their last 14.  I think you’ll see them get past this total once again here tonight.

Adding to all of this is a strong system in play. The OVER is 32-11 over the last 5 seasons in games played on Saturday with a total of 190 to 199.5 with a road team off an upset win as an underdog. That's a 74% system in favor of this one to go above the mark. Take the OVER!

4* NBA Non-Conference Total DOMINATOR on Pistons/Clippers OVER

The books have set mark the too low for tonight's showdown between the Clippers and Pistons. Los Angeles is going to be extra motivated here after dropping each of their last two on the road to the Wizards and Bucks. The Clippers didn't shoot well in either of those games, hitting below 43% in both contests. I look for the offense to get back on track at the Staples Center, where LA is averaging 106.7 ppg and shooting an impressive 47.4% from the field.

Another big key here to the Clippers offense having their way in this one, is the Pistons aren't going to have the energy defensively in this one. Detroit will be playing their 3rd road game in a span of 4 days. The Pistons have also struggled against LA, allowing at least 104 points in each of the last 4 meetings. In the last two at the Staple Center, these two teams have combined for 115 and 126 points, which just goes to show the value we are getting here with a total of just 204.

OVER is 28-12 in the Pistons last 40 games against a team with a winning record and 8-1 in the Clippers 9 games this season against a team that is allowing 99+ points/game.

Adding to all of this is a strong system in play. OVER is 45-12 since 1996 in games where you have a team off 2 consecutive road wins by 5 points or less in the first half of the season. That's a 79% system in favor of this one finishing above the mark. Take the OVER!

3* NBA Total Annihilator on Celtics/76ers OVER 206

While these two teams combined for just 191 points at Philadelphia back on Nov. 19, that was the first time in the last 4 meetings where they failed to combine for at last 213 points. I believe it's created some great value here, as we have two of the worst defensive teams in the league going at it. The Celtics are allowing 108.5 ppg on the road and the 76ers are giving up 108.7 ppg at home.

Not only do we have two teams here that don't play any defense, but we have two teams that love to push the pace. The Celtics are tied with the Warriors with the fastest pace in the league at 100.4 (number of possessions/game). The next best team in terms of pace behind Boston and Golden State is the 76ers at 99.2. With the Celtics coming off a full two days of rest and the 76ers off yesterday, we should see more than enough possessions and easy baskets to push this game well over the mark of 206.

OVER is 21-7 in the Celtics last 28 against the Eastern Conference, 6-2 in their last 8 road games versus a team with a losing home record and 12-4 in their last 16 after a game where they failed to cover the spread. The OVER is also 5-2 in the 76ers last 7 home games and 33-19 in their last 52 home games after two or more consecutive losses. These trends combine to form a 69% (77-34) system. Take the OVER!

4* Knicks/Raptors NBA Total No Brainer on UNDER

The books have set the total too high in today's matchup between the Knicks and Raptors. These two Atlantic Division rivals have a history of playing low scoring games at New York. In their two meetings at the Garden last year they combined for 178 points and 187. You have to go back to 2011 to find the last time that these two teams combined for more than 194 points in New York.

The Knicks are going to be playing with a lot of confidence here after finally snapping their skid with a 101-95 win at Boston on Friday. New York has really slowed the pace down this year. Only Miami (91.5) plays at a slower pace than the Knicks. The key here is that while they are just 3-9 SU at home, they have been able to dictate the tempo at home. New York is averaging just 91.4 ppg and allowing only 94.8 ppg at MSG this season.

UNDER is 5-1 in the Knicks last 6 home games and 4-1 in their last 5 against a division opponent. The UNDER is also 5-2 in Toronto's last 7 after a game where they covered the spread and a perfect 5-0 in their last 5 games following a SU win by more than 10 points. These trends combine to form a 83% (19-4) system backing this one to go below the mark! Take the UNDER!

3* NBA Total Dominator on Timberwolves/Lakers UNDER

While these are two of the worst defensive teams in the league, I think the total here has been set too high. The Lakers are coming off a draining win at San Antonio on Friday and I just don't see them looking to push the pace at all tonight. This will also be the 2nd time that these two teams have faced off in the last month and I look for a more inspired effort defensively from the Lakers than the first meeting, which resulted in a 1-point home loss.

The other key here is that both of these team are not all that great offensively. The Lakers are only averaging 97.6 ppg over their last 5 and the Timberwolves are even worse at 96.2 ppg over their last 5. The UNDER is 5-1 in Los Angeles' last 6 and 3-0 in the Timberwolves last 3. The UNDER is also a strong 15-4 in Minnesota's last 19 home games against terrible defensive teams that are allowing opponents to shoot 48% or better from the field.

Adding to all of this is a strong system in play. The UNDER is 41-15 when you have a total of 200 or more points with a home team that is off a loss by 10 or more points to a division rival playing on a Sunday. That's 73% system backing this one to go below the mark. Take the UNDER!

3* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Mavs/Grizzlies UNDER

With the Grizzlies having lost two of their last three, including a 101-107 home loss to the Spurs last Friday, I look for Memphis to be all business against the Mavericks tonight, especially considering Dallas took 3 of 4 against the Grizzlies last year. With the Mavs coming in leading the league in scoring at 110.6 ppg, I believe it's resulted in an inflated total here. Memphis has the leagues' best defense, allowing just 93.5 ppg. Look for the Grizzlies to slow this game way down and really make Dallas work on both sides of the ball.

It's also worth noting that this will be the Grizzlies 3rd straight home game and they are well rested. Memphis hasn't played back-to-back games since early November. Adding to this is the fact that the UNDER is 12-2 the Grizzlies last 14 games after playing two straight games as a home favorite. Average score in these games is just 184.1.

While the Mavericks have went over the total in 13 of 22 games this season, the UNDER is 5-2 in Dallas' last 7 road games against a team with a winning home record. We also find a strong system in play. UNDER is 30-8 since 1996 when you have a total of 200 or more with a road team that has gone over the total in 5 or more consecutive games who are an excellent offensive team (102+ ppg) and average defensively (92-98 ppg). That's a 79% system backing this one to go below the mark. Take the UNDER!

4* Eastern Conference Total of the Month on Wizards/Celtics UNDER

The books have set the total too high in Sunday's matchup between the Wizards and Celtics. This is an early tip-off for the NBA and I think it's going to have both not playing up to their full potential. Washington has been the better of the two teams and should be able to dictate the tempo. The Wizards are only giving up 92.6 ppg over their last 5 games. The Celtics have been playing better defensively of late. They held Detroit to just 102 (88 in regulation) and the Lakers to just 96 in their last two games.

UNDER is 43-26 over the last 3 seasons when Washington takes on a up-tempo team who averages 83 or more shots. It's also 32-14 in the Celtics last 46 home games after two straight covers as a favorite.

We also see a strong system in play. The UNDER is 26-6 since 1996 with a total of 200 or more where you have a road team off 3 straight blowout wins by 15 or more points. That's a 81% system backing this one to go below the mark. Take the UNDER!

3* Knicks/Bucks NBA Total Annihilator on UNDER

The books have set the total too high for this one. Both the Bucks and Knicks have really struggled to get anything going offensively so far in 2014. Milwaukee comes in ranked 28th in scoring at 91.8 ppg and the Knicks aren't far behind at 25th with just 93.9 ppg.

The Knicks just haven't figured out the triangle offense and as a result they are playing slower than any team in the league. New York is dead last in pace at 91.8. New York's slow tempo and inability to get easy baskets is going to make it extremely hard for them to put up a big number against a Bucks team that is playing hard defensively. Milwaukee is 4th in the league right now, allowing just 92.6 ppg and have been even better than that at home, where they are only giving up 86.5 ppg.

It's also worth noting that the Bucks have not played well offensively at home. They comes in averaging just 89.2 ppg and are shooting just 41.0% from the field at home. I look for the Knicks to give this team a lot of trouble. New York's biggest weakness defensively has been guarding the 3-point shot. They are allowing opponents to hit 42% from long-distance this season. Milwaukee is not a team built to beat you from the outside. The Bucks are dead last in the NBA hitting just 29.6% of their 3-point shots. On the flip side of this, Milwaukee is very good at defending the 3-pointer. They are allowing opponents to hit just 26% from the outside at home.

UNDER is 14-4 in Milwaukee's last 18 games against teams who are shooting 39% or better from 3-point range and a perfect 7-0 this season versus teams who are making 6 or more 3-pointers per game. UNDER is also a perfect 7-0 in the Bucks last 7 after playing their previous game as an underdog. These trends combine to form a dynamite 88% (28-4) system. Take the UNDER!

5* NBA Finals Total of the Year on the UNDER

The books have set the total way too high for Game 1. Both teams understand the importance of each game and that's going to lead to max effort on the defensive end. Miami has the perimeter defense to make things difficult for the Spurs offensively and San Antonio is one of the better teams in the league when it comes to defending LeBron James. You also have to factor in the nerves that come with playing in the Finals and the long layoff from the conference finals will likely have both teams out of sync offensively early on.

If you look back at last year's Finals matchup between these two teams, they combined for just 180 points in Game 1. They didn't score more than 190 points in the series until Game 4. It's also worth noting that the total for Game 1 last year was just 190 points. In fact the highest total set for any game in the series was 191.5 points. The value is clearly on the under at 199.

The UNDER is 36-13 (73.5%) for road teams when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (MIAMI) - after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half against opponent after scoring 105 points or more 2 straight games.

The UNDER is also 24-6 (80%) for all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (SAN ANTONIO) - after scoring 110 points or more 2 straight games against opponent after scoring 60 points or more in the first half last game.Take the UNDER!

3* NBA Playoffs Total Annihilator on OVER

These two teams have finished under the total in each of the last 4 games in the series, despite the fact that at least one team has scored 100+ in every game. I look for a much more competitive game than what we have had to this point and I believe that creates a lot of value on the over.

San Antonio is averaging 106.2 ppg in the playoffs and the Thunder aren't far behind at 102.2 ppg. The Spurs appear to have figured out Oklahoma City's defense and you can bank on the Thunder being at their best offensively at home, where they are averaging 107.5 ppg on the season.

The OVER is 20-8 in the Spurs last 28 games after 3 or more consecutive games that finished under the total. That's a solid 71% system in play. Take the OVER 206.5!

5* NBA Playoffs Total of the Year on Pacers/Heat UNDER

While the Heat and Pacers combined to score 203 points and crush the total of 182 in Game 1, I'm not expecting that to keep up. It's not uncommon for the first game of a series to be high-scoring. Both teams shot better than 51% from the field in the first game, which won't hold up. Miami is only allowing 93.7 points in the playoffs and Indiana is only giving up 90.3 in the postseason.

With Miami desperately needing a win to fall behind 0-2 and Indiana looking to make sure they leave with the homecourt advantage in tact, I look for both teams to lay it all on the line defensively in this one. I wouldn't be surprised at all if both teams failed to reach 85 points.

Prior to the offensive explosion in Game 1, these two teams had scored fewer than 185 points in 7 of their 8 previous matchups, including each of the previous 3 at Indiana.

The UNDER is 30-17 in the Pacers last 47 games off a double-digit home win, 33-13 in their last 46 games with a total set between 180 and 189.5 and 45-27 in the Heat's last 72 road games when playing just their 2nd game in 5 days. That's a strong 65% system. Take the UNDER!

5* NBA Playoffs Eastern Conference Total of the Month on Hawks/Pacers UNDER

The fate of the Pacers season rest on this game and I expect their defense to show up after allowing the Hawks to shoot 50% from the field in Game 5. Keep in mind that Indiana had held Atlanta under 40% shooting in each of the previous three games and all three of those contests finished under the total.

In the two games in this series played at Atlanta, the most these two teams have combined to score is just 183 points. In fact, each of the last 5 meetings, including the regular season, have all been extremely low scoring (184 or less) when these two teams play at Philips Arena.

It doesn't come as a huge surprise, as the UNDER is 21-9 in the Hawks last 30 home games against good defensive teams that are holding opponents to 43% or less shooting. The UNDER is also 16-5 in Atlanta's last 21 home games in the 2nd half of the season against teams with a winning record. These two massive trends combine to form a huge 73% (37-14) system in favor of the UNDER!

3* NBA Playoffs Total Annihilator on Mavericks/Spurs UNDER

The books have set the mark too high in Game 3 between the Spurs and Mavericks. While these two teams combined for 205 points in Game 2, that was with both teams shooting extremely well from the field. Dallas shot 48.9%, while the Spurs connected on exactly 50% of their attempts. The thing to keep in mind is that these two teams are now very familiar with one another by this point and let's not forget the combined for a mere 175 points in Game 1.

The UNDER is 90-58 in the Spurs last 148 games when they are revenging a straight up loss to an opponent as a favorite and the average total in these games is just 187.2 points. The UNDER is also 6-1 in San Antonio's last 7 games after allowing 100 or more points and 5-1 in the Mavericks' last 6 after they scored 100 or points last time out.

The UNDER is 68-30 in Game 3 of a playoff series with a total set at 200 or more points and 42-14 since 1996 when this takes place in the first round. That's a 75% system in favor of the UNDER!

3* NBA Playoffs Total Dominator on Rockets/Blazers OVER -

I know the playoffs are suppose to bring out the best in teams defensively, but there's simply too much offensive fire-power between the Rockets and Trail Blazers. Houston finished 2nd in scoring at 107.7 ppg, while Portland was 4th at 106.7 ppg.

The big key here is that both teams love to play at a fast pace, which should have both teams flying over their season averages. Oddsmakers simply didn't set the bar high enough with this number. In the season series the fewest these two combined to score was 215 points and that was with the two combining to go 13 for 47 (27.7%) from the 3-point line.

The OVER is 10-1 in the Trail Blazers last 11 games against a team with a winning percentage between 60% to 70% and 8-1 in the Rockets last 9 in the same situation. It's also 12-3 in Portland's 15 games this season versus teams who attempt 27 or more free throws per game and 14-4 in the Rockets last 18 games in the 2nd half against teams who average 83 or more shots/game. Total that's a 44-9 (83%) system in favor of the OVER!

4* NBA Playoffs Total Annihilator on Clippers/Warriors OVER

I know playoff games have a strong tendency to go UNDER the total, but I don't think the books have set the bar high enough for the Clippers and Warriors. Los Angeles led the NBA in scoring at 107.9 ppg and the Warriors were 10th at 104.3 ppg. If the two teams were to simply put up their average, we would be over the total by 1-point.

That might not seem like a lot of value, but you have to remember the Warriors are without Andrew Bogut, who is one of the top rim protectors in the league and a huge reason why Golden State finished 10th in scoring defense (99.5 ppg). Without Bogut the Warriors are going to have to play a smaller lineup, which I believe is going to force them to rely even more on the outside shot and play at a faster pace to try and get some easy baskets in transition. The Clippers love to play up-tempo and I look for them to score at will against the Warriors at home.

The OVER is 14-4 in the Clippers last 18 home games in the month of April, 5-1 in their last 6 first round playoff games, 19-7 in their last 26 home games versus a team with a winning record and 12-4 when they are playing a team who won more than 60% of their games. It's also 4-1 in the Warriors last 5 road games against a team with a winning home record. That's a 76% (54-17) Massive System in favor of the OVER!