Sports Picks & Predictions

3* SMASH on Thunder -1.5
I like the Thunder at home tonight laying a small number. The Thunder are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 games overall, 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 2 days rest, 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games, and 11-2 ATS in their last 13 vs. the Eastern Conference. OKC is also 13-1 ATS after having lost 2 of their last 3 games this season. The Nets have lost 5 of 6 while the Thunder have won 4 of 7. They are playing better ball than the Nets right now and I like them to get the W tonight.

4* Major NBA Divisional Dagger on Hawks +4
The Hawks have already beaten Miami in Miami by 14 points earlier this season and after losing yesterday to Phoenix they will be hungry to get right back in the win column. Here's the key: Atlanta is 14-4 ATS as an underdog this season while Miami is 6-21 ATS as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons. You also have to look at Miami in a letdown situation after a big win over Orlando. Miami is 3-15 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last 2 seasons and 0-9 ATS in home games after a win by 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons. To branch out even farther, plays against home teams (MIAMI) off an upset win as a home underdog against opponent off a home loss are 40-15 ATS the last 5 seasons. Take the points!

3* Sunday NBA SMASH on Bulls +5.5
The Bulls have lost 4 straight and will be out for blood against a team they are confident they can hang with. The Bulls are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. The Timberwolves are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5. Expect the Bulls to bounce back Sunday. Take the points.

4* Major Saturday Night NBA BEST BET on Jazz -2
(condensed writeup due to amount of games to handicap) The Cavs played an emotionally and physically draining game at Golden State last night and will not be ready to bounce back against one of the best home teams in the NBA. Utah is 13-3 ATS as a home favorite of 3 points or less over the last 3 seasons, 16-4 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons, and 12-1 ATS in home games after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread over the last 2 seasons. Take the Jazz.

4* Major NBA Anti-Public Annihilator on Warriors +6.5
The Warrior have proven time and time again to be strong in the home dog role and the books are giving them too many points tonight. All the public sees here is that Cleveland has a way better record, but the Cavs have been shaky on the road lately, winning just 2 of their last 6, with two of those losses coming to the lowly Wizards and Bulls. Cleveland's lack of depth has been its biggest culprit lately as they don't have an interior presence that can score with Big Z out and Delonte West's injury rids them of one of their best perimeter shooters. The Warriors are 21-5-2 ATS in their last 28 games as a home underdog of 5-10.5 points and 15-4 ATS in home games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 3 seasons. Take the points.

4* Major Friday Night NBA BLOWOUT on Hornets pk
Odds makers have figured in the Hornets' injuries too heavily into this line and we are going to make them pay. All they will need is Chris Paul tonight who has been sensational. The Wolves are only 6-13 SU and 6-12-1 ATS at home this season. New Orleans is a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS at Minnesota the past 3 seasons and is 12-3 ATS in all games at Minnesota since 1996. Minnesota is 1-9 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season, losing these games by 11.1 ppg. New Orleans is 12-1 ATS in road games versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game over the last 2 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 109.2 to 100.8. New Orleans has cleaned Minnesota's clock in each of the past two meetings, winning by 34 and 32 points respectively. There will be no answer for Chris Paul tonight and the Hornets will roll.

3* Friday Night UNDERDOG SHOCKER on Pacers +1
The public is not giving the Pacers much of a chance tonight but with McGrady not playing for the Rockets and with Artest likely not going either, the Rockets won't have enough weapons to win against the uptempo style of ball that Indiana likes to play. The Pacers have covered the spread in 6 of their last 8 games and have won 3 straight at home. They return home after back-to-back losses on the road and that proves to be significant here as Indiana is 12-3 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses this season. The Pacers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points, 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record, and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog. The Rockets are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a losing SU record, and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win. The Rockets are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Take the Pacers.

3* NBA REVENGER on Bobcats +4.5
The Suns are struggling, having lost 4 of their last 5. They are also a terrible 5-17-1 ATS in their last 23 games and 0-6-1 ATS over their last 7. You won't believe this but the public is still on them big time and that has Vegas licking its chops. Charlotte has won 4 of 5 and is a perfect 5-0 ATS during the stretch. Phoenix is 3-12 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record this season while Charlotte is 16-7 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. The Bobcats have two very vivid memories of the Suns blowing them out in each of the last two meetings and I have Charlotte exacting some revenge here. Take the points.

4* Major NBA Total of the Week on Celtics/Magic UNDER 192.5
Expect a defensive battle tonight as these teams battle it out for Eastern Conference supremacy. In the first meeting this season, we saw 195 points scored, but that was with Boston busting out for 107 and I don't see that here. Boston just played last night and that should slow it down some, but not enough to be competitive in what the Celtics hope will be a statement game for them. Boston is 11-4 UNDER in its last 15. Boston is 15-6 UNDER in road games this season, 8-0 UNDER after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half this season, and 11-3 UNDER in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins this season. Orlando is 15-5 UNDER after scoring 100 points or more 4 straight games over the last 2 seasons. Plays under on home teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (ORLANDO) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off a road win by 10 points or more are 79-39 since 1996. Take the Under!

5* NBA Home Dog of the Year on Blazers +1.5
The public is all over the Cavs in this one which makes me feel even better about my side. The Cavs has been sensational at home, but the road has not been nearly as kind. In fact, the Cavs have lost 4 of their last 5 road games. With Big Z out, Ben Wallace banged up, and also without Delonte West, the Cavs are short handed. This was evident in their last defeat against the Lakers and it will be again tonight against a Blazers team that is 15-4 at home. Portland is 8-3 SU and ATS in its last 11 home meetings in this matchup. Portland is 32-15 ATS as a home underdog over the last 3 seasons and 10-1 ATS in home games after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. Take the points!

3* NBA Underdog Dagger on Pacers +7.5
It will be much tougher for this veteran Spurs team to play back-to-back than this young Pacers team tonight. The Pacers have been playing very good basketball, covering the spread in 4 straight games and 6 of their last 7 while the Spurs are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5. San Antonio is 15-7 at home but only 8-13 ATS in those games. Conversely, the Pacers are just 6-17 on the road, but 13-10 ATS in those games. Indiana is 13-3 ATS off a road loss this season, winning by an average score of 106.1 to 105.3 in these spots. SA is just 7-20 ATS when playing on back-to-back days over the last 2 seasons. Pound the Pacers.

4* Major Non-Conference Game of the Week on LA Lakers -4.5
There is no player in the NBA more competitive than Kobe Bryant and he will not let his team go down for a third straight time tonight. The Cavs have struggled on the road recently, losing 3 of their last 4 road games and they will run into a buzzsaw here. LA is the more talented team and it is playing at home where it is 20-3 this season. The Cavs have played the Lakers tough in recent years and that gives Kobe an even bigger incentive to go out tonight and show the world that he is still the best player in basketball, not LeBron. Cleveland is just 10-27 ATS in road games after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half since 1996. This is a tough spot for the Cavs who are short-handed. Lay the number.

4* Major NBA Blowout of the Week on Boston Celtics -8
Boston has quietly won 4 in a row and is now ready to take it to a tired Suns team which was given all they wanted and more in Toronto Sunday. Boston is 20-2 at home and a respectable 13-9 ATS in those games. Both Stoudemire and Nash played arguably their best games of the season yesterday and will have a very difficult time playing at that same level here. Phoenix is 5-13 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season. Boston is 11-2 ATS in home games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game over the last 2 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 109.6 to 95.6. Pound the C's!

3* NBA Early Bird BEST BET on Bobcats +5
No one thinks the Bobcats have a chance tonight and that's just the way I like it. With 80% of the public on the Spurs, odds makers are looking to get paid with Charlotte and I'm not about to let the books collect on me. The Spurs are always overvalued against the East so it comes as no surprise that they are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 vs. the Eastern Conference. The Bobcats are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Monday games, and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog, period. Bet the Bobcats!

3* Sunday NBA Smash of the Week on Thunder +1.5
The Heat just played last night and this game marks the end of a grueling 7-game road trip for them. Miami won't have enough legs to win against a hot OKC team that has won back-to-back games and 3 of its last 4. The Thunder are 22-6 ATS in their last 28 games overall and therefore 22-6 ATS in their last 28 as an underdog. With the way the Thunder have played recently, they should not be the underdog in this matchup but we'll gladly take the points. The Thunder are a perfect 9-0 ATS in their last 9 home games, 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games playing with 1 day's rest, and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 Sunday games. They are also a healthy 11-1 ATS in their last 12 vs. the Eastern Conference. The Heat have been fool's gold as a favorite at 14-37-1 ATS in their last 52 games as a favorite. Bet the Thunder at home Sunday.

4* Major Saturday Night NBA BEST BET on Bobcats +2.5
For as talented as Portland is, it has not been a reliable road bet. The Blazers are only 10-11 SU and 8-13 ATS away from home. The Bobcats have had four days to rest and prepare for this one and I'll take them here against a road-weary Blazers squad. THe Trail Blazers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games playing on 1 days rest. The Bobcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less and 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning SU record. Also, the underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Take the points!

4* Major Non-Conference Game of the Week on Cavs -4.5
I know Cleveland played an overtime game last night in Chicago, but playing back-to-back has not been tough on this team as they are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games playing with no days rest and 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a SU loss. The loss to the Bulls, in a game where Lebron was not as his best is the key motivator here, along with the fact that the Cavs were beaten in New Orleans earlier this season. Cleveland is a perfect 19-0 at home this season and 15-4 ATS in those games. The Hornets are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog, 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU win, 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS win, and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. the Eastern Conference. The Cavaliers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 Friday games, 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 4.5 points or less, and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 vs. the Western Conference. Bet the Cavs!

5* NBA Surprise BLOWOUT on Wizards -2.5
This is the second of a home and home and I like the Wizards to return the favor to the Knicks tonight. NY has beaten the Wiz 3 times this season, by 6,5,6 points and yet the NY is still the underdog? In other words, the books don't trust a 6-14 road team laying points and neither do I. The Wizards are due in this matchup and the fact that the public is one New York makes me like this one even more. Washington is 13-2 ATS in home games after having lost 20 or more of their last 25 games since 1996 and 24-10 ATS after 6 or more consecutive losses since 1996. NY is 9-24 ATS after a win by 6 points or less over the last 3 seasons, losing these games by 9.3 ppg. The revenge factor in this one is huge tonight and I believe it produces a double digit win for the Wizards!

4* Major NBA on TNT GOTM on Suns +2
The Nuggets will really miss Melo in this one and they will also miss Marcus Camby in the paint, who was dealt away in the offseason, because Shaq is playing at an extremely high level once again and that has been the difference for Phoenix recently. The Nuggets won't be able to replace Melo's 25 points tonight against a Suns team which has started to push the tempo again. Plays against favorites (DENVER) after a win by 6 points or less against an opponent after scoring 100 points or more 4 straight games are 40-15 ATS the last 5 seasons. Denver is also just 6-19 ATS versus very good shooting teams - making >=48% of their shots since 1996, losing by an average score of 105.2 to 113.5 in these spots. The Suns have no reason to look ahead to Minnesota so maximum effort will get them the win on the road tonight.

3* NBA on TNT Prime Time TOTAL on Cavs/Bulls OVER 194.5
With Chicago playing back-to-back and Cleveland well rested, there's no way the Bulls will be able to slow down the Cavs here. The Bulls are allowing 102.9 ppg this season and 105.1 ppg when playing back-to-back this season. These teams have already played three times this season with each game going over this number. The Bulls are getting healthier and they will be up for this national TV challenge against the best in the East so I expect to see Chicago filling up the basket as well. 8 of 11 games in this matchup over the last 3 seasons have gone over the number and 4 of 5 have gone over in Chicago. The Over is 10-1 in the Bulls last 11 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600, 6-1 in the Bulls last 7 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game, and 4-0 in the Bulls last 4 games as an underdog. Bet the Over.

5* NBA Total of the Month on Lakers/Spurs UNDER 199.5
9 of the last 11 meetings in this matchup have gone under the number over the last 3 seasons. These teams have not exceeded 199 total points in any of their last 11 meetings. The Spurs play a slower paced brand of basketball with a huge emphasis on the defensive end and they always up their level of play of defense against the best competition and that's exactly what you'll see tonight. SA is 24-8 UNDER when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%) over the last 3 seasons, the average total in these games is 185.2 points. SA is 25-12 UNDER versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. The average score against these teams has totaled 192.4. Take the Under.

4* Major NBA Fade of the Week on Bobcats +7
I'm fading the Pistons here. The Bobcats are only 4-12 on the road, but they are 10-6 ATS in those games. In fact, they have only lost by more than 7 points on the road 4 times this season with 2 of those coming to a Cleveland team that is yet to lose on its home floor. While Detroit is 12-5 at home, it is only 6-11 ATS in those contests. Charlotte has already lost to the Pistons twice this season by 8 and 4 points respectively at home. It's awfully hard to beat a team 3 straight times in a season and I don't think the Pistons will get it done tonight. Charlotte is 7-0 ATS in road games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game this season. The Bobcats are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 and 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 while the Pistons are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite period. Take the Bobcats.

4* Major NBA Line Mistake of the Week on Bulls +2
The public will be all over the Blazers in this game but I like the Bulls to win outright. While the perception is that Portland is the better team, as it has the better record, the Blazers are only 8-10 SU and just 6-12 ATS on the road. The Bulls are 12-6 at home this season and have two big motivational factors in their favor tonight. First, they are coming off a double digits home loss to the worst team in the NBA, Oklahoma City. Secondly, they were crushed 116-74 in Portland back in mid-November. The Blazers are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games and are only 4-17 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games over the last 2 seasons. Take Chicago!

3* NBA SMASH on Thunder +7.5
We have had several nice cashes on the Thunder lately and we will ride them again here. OKC is playing its best basketball of the season and while it is not showing up in the win column, it is the in ATS win column. The Thunder has covered the spread in 12 of their last 15 games and 19 of their last 25. The public has jumped on the Nets early but they are just 8-12 SU and ATS at home this season. While the Thunder are just 2-16 SU on the road, they are 13-5 ATS. OKC is 12-1 ATS after covering 3 of their last 4 against the spread this season and 11-1 ATS after having lost 2 of their last 3 games this season. Take the points!

3* NBA Smash of the Week on Magic +3
Here's the major key: the Spurs are -34 against teams with winning records this season while the Magic are +43. This is because of how dominant the Magic have been on the road, compiling a 13-5 SU and ATS mark. Also, at 25-12 ATS overall, the Magic are the best covering team in the NBA. Tim Duncan still has game but the younger more athletic Dwight Howard poses major problems for him on both sides of the ball. Orlando is 11-2 ATS as a road underdog of 3 points or less over the last 2 seasons, winning outright by an average score of 104.1 to 98.6 in these spots. Take the points.

4* Major NBA Dog of the Week on Thunder +7
Odds makers have done it again, not because they are stupid, but because the public continues to fade one of the hottest covering teams in the league. I'm referring to the fact that the Thunder have been continually overvalued recently and the result has been 8 covers in their last 10 games and 17 covers in their last 23. This one also shapes up nicely because the Rockets are coming off an emotional win over Boston and will be prone to packing it in a little early in the last game of their road trip. On the other side of things, the Thunder are coming off a terrible loss at Minnesota and we'll be playing to avenge it here. OKC is 13-5 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season. We'll take the points.

5* ESPN Game of the Month on Cavs -4
The Cavs have had this one circled on their calendar since losing by 5 at Boston back on October 28. There is no better home team in the NBA than Cleveland, which has a 18-0 SU and 14-4 ATS record. The Cavs have also won 6 straight at home against the C's over the last 3 seasons. Including playoff games, Cleveland was a perfect 5-0 at home against Boston last season, winning by an average of 13.3 ppg in those three playoff contests. This game is all about revenge from last year's playoff defeat and all about sending a message that they are now the team to beat in the East. Cleveland will show no mercy for Boston's 2-6 skid. Cleveland is 7-0 ATS versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season, winning by an average score of 111.1 to 90.3 in these spots. Take the Cavs!

3* SMASH on Magic -5
The Magic have been dominant at home and they have been dominant as a favorite. The Magic are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games as a favorite and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games. The Magic have also played their best ball against their toughest opponents so it comes as no surprise that they are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning SU record. While the Hawks have made major strides in recent years, they aren't ready to win on the road against elite teams and the numbers support that as they are 11-23 ATS in their last 34 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. I'll follow the numbers here. Lay the points.

5* NBA Late Night BAILOUT on Jazz -4
Off a big upset win over LA last night, the Hornets are not going to be able to bounce back strong enough to cover this number against one of the elite home teams in the NBA. Utah is 13-4 at home this season and the Jazz have had the Hornets' number, winning 11 of the last 14 meetings at home. New Orleans is a terrible 2-12 ATS in road games off a win by 10 points or more as an underdog since 1996,losing by an average score of 85.6 to 99.3 in these spots. Take the Jazz.

3* Underdog SMASH on Hornets +7.5
The Lakers are 18-1 at home so naturally the money is rushing in on them, but a good Hornets team will be up to the challenge tonight. New Orleans has already lost to LA twice this season and off a loss to Denver in its last game, the Hornets have all the incentive in the world to leave it all out on the floor. New Orleans is actually 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS in its last 3 meetings in LA. The Lakers are just 2-10 ATS after having won 12 or more of their last 15 games this season while New Orleans is 16-5 ATS after a loss by 6 points or less over the last 3 seasons, 25-10 ATS revenging a home loss vs. an opponent over the last 3 seasons, and 13-3 ATS in January games over the last 2 seasons. Take the points.

4* Major NBA Blowout of the Week on Magic -13
This one has blowout written all over it as the Magic are off a loss and returning home out for blood while the Wizards are in a letdown spot after surprising Cleveland. Orland already has wins of 25 and 15 against the Wiz this season as they have had no answer on the interior. Orlando is 19-2 AT off a road loss over the last 2 seasons. Enough said. Lay the points.

4* Major NBA Total of the Week on Pacers/Nuggets UNDER 223
While Indiana has been able to some scoring this season, it has mostly come at home. The Pacers are averaging only 98.6 ppg on the road and that means that the odds makers have set the bar too high here. Another thing to consider is that Denver plays much better defense at home, allowing 99.6 ppg while scoring 105.3. Both of these teams have been overs machines lately to really jack this number up. Indiana is 17-6 UNDER in road games off a home win over the last 3 seasons. The average score in these spots is Indy 93.5, opponent 101.4. Take the Under.

4* Major NBA SMASH of the Week on Grizzlies +6.5
Everything about this one should say all Dallas, and yet the Grizz are just 6.5-point dogs and the books know the public will be all over the Mavs. I smell a rat and I'm not about to get caught in that trap. This is the 3rd time these two teams will have faced off this season. Dallas has won big at home in the other two and the Grizzlies will really get geared up for matchup number 3. Dallas is just 1-11 ATS after 3 straight games committing 11 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons. The Mavs are due for a letdown and it comes today.

3* NBA Saturday Night SMASH on Bobcats -1
The Bobcats have already lost three times to the Bucks this season and were blown out last night. I like the Bobcats to finally step up to the plate and get the job done at home. Milwaukee is just 7-13 on the road this season and it is not catching enough points to pick up another road cover here. Lay the point!

4* Major Friday Night NBA BEST BET on Nets +4
New Jersey is 19-4 at home against the Hawks since 1996. It is 7-2 SU and ATS in all matchups over the last 3 seasons, including 4-1 SU and ATS at home. New Jersey has already beaten the Hawks twice as an underdog this season and yet they continue to get points because the books know the public will be on Atlanta. The Nets are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less. Take the points.

4* Major NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Thunder +2.5
While OKC is only 3-29 on the season, it has now covered the spread in 14 of its last 19 games, including 5 of its last 6. The road has been unkind to Golden State this season where the Warriors are only 4-16 SU and 7-13 ATS. Golden State is just 3-13 ATS versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game this season, losing by an average score of 103.5 to 113.9 in these games. Since making a coaching change, the Thunder have been extremely competitive and I'll ride them here tonight. Take the points.