Sports Picks & Predictions

20* Pelicans/Thunder TNT No-Brainer on New Orleans +8

The Oklahoma City Thunder are a young team getting their first taste of the playoffs.  They played like it in Game 1 being very fortunate to come away with a 94-92 victory over the New Orleans Pelicans.  I don't expect Game 2 to be a walk in the park for them, either.

The Pelicans are a veteran team with playoff experience and know the importance of trying to get one in Oklahoma City.  They shot just 38.5% as a team and 11-of-39 (28.2%) from 3-point range in Game 1 and still only lost by 2.  They dominated on the boards including 18 offensive rebounds, and the Thunder don't have an answer for Jonas Valanciunas in this series.  Dominating the board is sustainable, shooting that poorly again is not.

Home-court advantage has meant nothing in this series.  In fact, the road team is 7-1 SU & 8-0 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Neither team has been favored by more than 5.5 points in any of the last 12 meetings with the exception of the 8.5-point spread in Game 1.  This 8-point spread in Game 2 is too high as well.  Bet the Pelicans Wednesday.

15* Pacers/Bucks NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Indiana +1.5

The Indiana Pacers went 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS against the Milwaukee Bucks in the regular season.  This is clearly a great matchup for them, but it didn't play out that way in Game 1 as Damian Lillard scored 35 first half points and it was just too much for them to overcome.

Lillard won't be as hot again, and the Bucks won't out shoot the Pacers like they did in Game 1.  The Pacers shot just 39.6% from the field and 8-of-39 (20.5%) from 3-point range.  I have to think they will have some major positive shooting regression in their favor in Game 2.

The Bucks are expected to be without Giannis Antetokounmpo again in Game 2.  They can play one good game without him, but to continue to play great games without him is unsustainable.  He's one of the best players in the NBA for a reason with all he can do on both ends of the court.

Indiana is 26-11 ATS off an ATS loss this season.  The Pacers are 7-0 ATS in Tuesday road games this season.  Indiana is 28-14 ATS when playing its 2nd game in 5 days this season.  The Pacers are 20-6 ATS against teams that average 7 or fewer steals per game this season.  Bet the Pacers in Game 2 Tuesday.

25* NBA Western Conference Round 1 GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles +7.5

This is a must-win game for the Lakers if they want to give Denver a series.  I expect their biggest effort of the season to try and get it done in Game 2.  They should not be catching 7.5 points to the Nuggets here tonight.

The Lakers outplayed the Nuggets in three of four quarters in Game 1.  Unfortunately, they came out flat after halftime after taking a 3-point lead into the break.  They lost the 3rd quarter 32-18.  I expect them to make the right adjustments coming out of the break this time around.

The Nuggets took 23 more shots than the Lakers and only committed 4 turnovers in Game 1 yet still only won by 11.  That's going to be very hard for them to replicate.  I expect Game 2 to come down to the wire with the Lakers with an excellent chance to pull off the outright upset, so getting 7.5 points here is a tremendous value.  Bet the Lakers in Game 2 Monday.

20* Pelicans/Thunder TNT Sunday Night BAILOUT on New Orleans +8.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder beat the Pelicans in the play-in round last year to knock them out of the playoffs.  The Thunder went on to lose to the Timberwolves in their next play-in game, so they didn't get the full playoff experience.

The Pelicans have not forgotten and they want revenge.  The Thunder are the No. 1 seed in the West, but none of these players have real playoff experience.  I think that will work against them and this young team is extremely vulnerable as a result.  They should not be 8.5-point favorites over the battle-tested Pelicans in Game 1 tonight.

Home-court advantage has meant nothing in this series.  In fact, the road team is 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Neither team has been favored by more than 5.5 points in any of the last 11 meetings, so this 8.5-point spread is unprecedented.  It's simply too many points tonight.  Bet the Pelicans Sunday.

20* Lakers/Nuggets ABC No-Brainer on Los Angeles +7.5

The Los Angeles Lakers made the Western Conference Finals last year and got swept by the Denver Nuggets.  The series was much closer than the 4-game sweep would indicate as the Lakers just couldn't finish games late.  Three games were decided by 6 points or fewer.

The Lakers then went on to get swept by the Nuggets in the regular season.  It's safe to say the Lakers want revenge on the Nuggets, and it starts with Game 1 of this series as inflated 7.5-point dogs.  You're paying a tax on the Nuggets now after winning the NBA Finals last year, and I think they will be a great team to fade in these playoffs as a result.

The Lakers are finally nearly fully healthy and playing their best basketball of the season.  They went 12-3 SU in their last 15 games just to make the playoffs, including their clutch 110-106 road win at New Orleans in the play-in game.  They weren't afraid of the Nuggets by winning that game knowing that would be their matchup.  They 'want all that smoke', and I expect LeBron James and company to come up clutch and give the Nuggets a run for their money in this series, starting with Game 1.  Bet the Lakers Saturday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma City Thunder -19.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder have gone 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall to put themselves in position to clinch the No. 1 seed in the West.  They will clinch the No. 1 seed with a win today, and will be max motivated to do so.

The Dallas Mavericks are locked in to the No. 5 seed in the West.  They are one of the few Western Conference teams that are locked into their seeding.  As a result, they are resting all of their best players in Doncic, Irving, Lively II, Gafford, Washington, Jones Jr., Exum and Kleber.

It did not go well for the Mavericks last game without Doncic and Irving as they lost outright as 11-point home favorites to the Pistons 107-89, failing to cover the spread by 29 points.  But they even had four of those players that are sitting today playing in that game.  They will have arguably the worst lineup in the entire NBA playing today, and I don't see them staying within 20 points of the Thunder as a result.  Bet the Thunder Sunday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Memphis Grizzlies +13.5

The Denver Nuggets blew the No. 1 seed by losing 121-120 at the buzzer to the Spurs as 11.5-point favorites last game.  They are now in a 3-way tie with the Thunder and Timberwolves for 1st place in the West with one game to go.  But they lose the tiebreaker to both teams.

The problem is the Thunder are 19.5-point favorites over the Mavericks, who are sitting everyone today.  The Nuggets know they have no shot at the No. 1 seed, so they are likely to rest everyone today.  Jokic, Murray, Porter Jr., Gordon, Caldwell-Pope and several others are all questionable, but my anticipation is they sit.

The Nuggets have no business being 13.5-point road favorites over the Grizzlies without these guys.  This is what the line would be if they were all playing.  The Grizzlies continue to show up every night, which was the case last time out in their 123-120 loss to the Lakers are 16-point dogs.  This is a gritty team with a bunch of young players playing with something to prove.  LaRavia, Jackson, Goodwin and Pippen Jr. all scored 23 or more points against the Lakers.  Bet the Grizzlies Sunday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Washington Wizards +9.5

The Washington Wizards continue to show up.  They have just one loss by more than 9 points in their last 12 games.  That makes for an 11-1 system backing the Wizards pertaining to this 9.5-point spread.

The Boston Celtics have announced they will be resting their 6 best players in White, Tatum, Porzingis, Horford, Holiday and Brown.  Asking them to win by double-digits to beat us without these six guys is asking too much.  Bet the Wizards Sunday.

20* NBA Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix Suns -4.5

I love the spot for the Phoenix Suns tonight.  They sit in 7th place in the West just one game behind the Pelicans for the 6th seed.  They own the tiebreaker over the Pelicans, who have to play on the road against the Warriors tonight.  The Suns are highly motivated to get out of the play-in and get that 6th seed.

The Suns are fully healthy right now and playing up to their potential.  They are 8-4 SU & 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  They will be the fresher team tonight as they had yesterday off, while the Kings will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days.

The Kings are running out of gas and out of bodies.  They are 1-4 SU in their last five games overall with their only win coming against the lowly Nets.  They are without Malik Monk and Kevin Heurter right now to really hurt their depth and shooting.  Fox played nearly 41 minutes last night, while Murray played 36, Barnes 33 and Sabonis 35.  They won't have anything left in the tank for the Suns tonight.  Bet the Suns Friday.

15* NBA Friday Night BLOWOUT on Minnesota Timberwolves -12.5

The Atlanta Hawks have nothing to play for.  They are locked in to the 10th spot and the play-in and will have a road game against the Bulls, who they lose out on the tiebreaker to.  Their only concern is getting healthy for the play-in round now as they are dealing with a plethora of injuries.

Indeed, the Hawks are without Bey, Griffin, Johnson and Okongwu.  Dejounte Murray sat out last game with a quad injury and likely won't pay again.  Trae Young just returned from injury and they could be cautious with him as well.  I expect a very poor effort from the Hawks tonight with a lot of backups getting playing time.

The Minnesota Timberwolves still have a lot to play for.  They are tied with the Thunder for the 2nd seed and they are one game behind the Nuggets for the top seed in the West.  They are now fully healthy with Karl-Anthony Towns expected to return from his knee injury tonight.  They are going 'all in' to win their final two games and get the best seed possible.  I'll gladly back the healthier, more motivated team tonight laying the big number.  Bet the Timberwolves Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Toronto Raptors +15

The Miami Heat are content with being the 8th seed and in the play-in.  They trail the 76ers by one game for the 7th seed, and the 76ers host the Magic and Nets to close out the season and are likely to win both those games.  They trail the Pacers and Magic by two games with two to go for the 5th and 6th seeds.  They know they are essentially locked in to the 8th seed.

The Heat played like it in their last game as they lost 111-92 at home to the Dallas Mavericks.  Duncan Robinson is out Friday and Terry Rozier is questionable.  I wouldn't be surprised to see more starters sit for the Heat tonight as their main focus now is to just get healthy for the playoffs.

The Heat have no business being 15-point favorites over anyone right now given their situation.  The Raptors continue to battle and have a healthy Emmanuel Quickley and RJ Barrett in the lineup right now, plus could get back Gary Trent Jr. and Bruce Brown.  The Raptors are 2-2 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall including an outright win at Milwaukee as 14.5-point dogs.  They only lost by 4 as 11.5-point road dogs at Brooklyn despite being short-handed in their last game.  They will show up again tonight and give Miami a run for its money.

The Raptors are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with the Heat.  Bet the Raptors Friday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Charlotte Hornets +10.5

The Boston Celtics have nothing to play for right now.  They locked up the No. 1 seed in the East several games ago and have been just going through the motions since.  They are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games overall and their last two games just showed how little they cared.

The Celtics lost 104-91 at Milwaukee as 3.5-point dogs on Tuesday before falling 118-109 as 3-point home favorites to New York on Thursday.  The Celtics tailed by 29 to the Knicks heading into the 4th quarter before they called the dogs off.  Now they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.

The Celtics have no business being favored by double-digits against anyone in this spot.  Their only goal right now is to get healthy for the playoffs.  They aren't concerned with blowing out Charlotte with two games to go in the regular season.  Even if they play their starters they have been resting those starters in the 4th quarter and will likely do so again.

Charlotte is 2-2 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four games overall.  The Hornets upset the Magic 124-115 as 12-point dogs, upset the Hawks 115-114 as 9.5-point dogs and took the Thunder to the wire in a 3-point loss as 7.5-point dogs.  They have not quit, and they will relish this opportunity to try and knock off the top team in the East.  They will clearly be the more motivated team, and motivation means a lot in the NBA.  Bet the Hornets Friday.

20* Pelicans/Kings TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on New Orleans +1

The New Orleans Pelicans have a lot to play for tonight.  They currently sit in 6th place in the West but just 0.5 games ahead of the 7th place Suns and the play-in.  They are playing with a sense of urgency right now beating those Suns 113-105 as 6-point road dogs and beating the Blazers by double-digits on the road in their last two games coming in.

The Pelicans are the much healthier team than the Kings right now.  The Pelicans have all hands on deck outside Brandon Ingram, who has been out for about a month.  He could return tonight, but I like the Pelicans either way.

The Kings are without two of their best shooters in Malik Monk and Kevin Huerter.  If it's not them it's Keegan Murray, who is also questionable to play tonight.  The Kings have really struggled since losing Monk, going 1-3 SU in their last four games overall with their lone win coming against the lowly Nets.  They return home from a 4-game road trip and will be playing in their 5th different city in 8 days.

The Pelicans own the Kings this season.  They have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the four meetings with four blowout wins despite being underdogs in all four.  They won by 33, 10, 5 and 36 points for an average margin of victory of 21 points per game.  This is clearly a terrible matchup for the Kings, and that's even when they were healthy.  That's not the case any more, and the wrong team is favored here tonight.  Bet the Pelicans Thursday.

20* Knicks/Celtics TNT No-Brainer on New York -2.5

The New York Knicks are back to full strength outside of Julius Randle and playing well.  They beat the Bucks 122-109 as 4.5-point road dogs and followed it up with a 128-117 win at Chicago as 4.5-point favorites in their last two games coming in.  Their solid play will continue tonight in Boston.

The reason the Knicks are favored on the road here is because they have a lot to play for, while the Celtics are locked in to the No. 1 seed in the East with nothing to play for.  The Knicks sit in 3rd place in the East just 1.5 games behind the Bucks and only 1.5 games ahead of the Pacers for the 6th spot.  They have a lot at stake here.

The Celtics have been going through the motions here down the stretch in going 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They have six key players listed as questionable tonight in Tatum, Brown, Holiday, Porzingis, Horford and Tillman.  Their only focus the rest of the way is to get healthy for a playoff run.  Bet the Knicks Thursday.

15* Suns/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix -4

I love the spot for the Phoenix Suns tonight.  They are coming off an embarrassing 105-92 road loss to the Clippers last night.  They fell behind 35-4 in the 1st quarter to open the game and did a good job just to get back in it.  They shot 33.7% as a team and that's not going to happen again.

The Suns don't have to wait long for revenge as they meet in Los Angeles for the rematch tonight.  They need this game more as they sit in 7th place in the West and currently in the play-in and one game behind the Pelicans for 6th place.  They have a lot more to play for here tonight.

The Clippers are now locked in to the 4th or 5th seed.  They will likely play the Dallas Mavericks in the first round, who trail them by two games.  They don't care about home-court advantage.  They are without Kawhi Leonard and could be without James Harden again.  Meanwhile, the Suns could get back Jusuf Nurkic, but I like them to win and cover tonight no matter who plays.

The Suns have been a resilient team going 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games following a loss.  They are coming off two consecutive losses and haven't lost three straight games since December 19-25.  Bet the Suns Wednesday.

25* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR on New Orleans Pelicans -10

The New Orleans Pelicans are in 7th place in the West and currently in the play-in if the season were to end today.  But they are tied with the 6th place Suns and losing out on the tiebreaker.  They have a lot to play for here down the stretch, so they won't be taking the Portland Trail Blazers lightly tonight.

The Pelicans have played their best basketball on the road this season.  They just got back Jose Alvarado from injury and Zion Williamson showed he was healthy in their 113-105 upset win at Phoenix as 5.5-point dogs last time out.  They are only missing Brandon Ingram now, and he is scheduled to return soon.  They don't need him to crush the Blazers.

The Blazers are without their three best players in Anfernee Simons, Jerami Grant and Malcom Brogdon.  They have gone 2-11 SU in their last 13 games overall with their two wins coming against the lowly Wizards and Hornets.  They return home from a 7-game road trip after a 17-point loss at Boston, and I love fading teams coming back home off an extended trip.  There's a lot of distractions they have to deal with back at home.

The Pelicans are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings with the Blazers with all five wins coming by 9 points or more and by an average of 18.0 points per game.  It will be more of the same tonight given all that the Pelicans have to play for up against the short-handed Blazers.  Bet the Pelicans Tuesday.

15* Warriors/Lakers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -1.5

The Los Angeles Lakers have gone 9-2 SU in their last 11 games overall.  LeBron James sat out their last game and they lost to the Timberwolves.  I expect him back tonight with what's at stake for the Lakers.

The Lakers currently sit in 9th place in the West but just 0.5 games behind the Kings, and 1.5 games behind both the Pelicans and Suns for the 6th seed.  They also at the very least want to get a home game agains the Warriors in the play-in, and they lead the Warriors by 1.5 games.

The Warriors seems pretty much content with the fact that they will be the 10th seed and have to go on the road in the play-in.  They sat Steph Curry last game, and Draymond Green suffered a back injury that leaves him questionable tonight.  I just don't think the Warriors are going to play this game with the sense of urgency that the Lakers will.

The Lakers also want revenge from a 128-121 home loss to the Warriors on March 16th less than a month ago.  They need this win to split the season series.  The Lakers are 27-13 SU at home and playing their best basketball of the season right now with the playoffs quickly approaching.  Bet the Lakers Tuesday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on San Antonio Spurs +7.5

The San Antonio Spurs have quietly gone 4-2 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.  They upset the Suns at home, the Jazz on the road, the Knicks at home and the Pelicans on the road.  They also only lost by 4 as 10.5-point home dogs to the Warriors, and by 5 as 16-point road dogs to the Nuggets.  This team is grossly undervalued right now.

The Spurs are in a favorable rest spot today playing just their 2nd game in 5 days, while the 76ers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 9th game in 15 days.  Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey and Tobias Harris are all questionable to play today, but I like the Spurs no matter who suits up for the 76ers.  Bet the Spurs Sunday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on San Antonio Spurs +11.5

The San Antonio Spurs have quietly gone 3-2 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  They upset the Suns at home, the Jazz on the road and the Knicks at home.  They also only lost by 4 as 10.5-point home dogs to the Warriors, and by 5 as 16-point road dogs to the Nuggets.  This team is grossly undervalued right now.

The New Orleans Pelicans are grossly overvalued.  They have gone 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall losing by 12 to Boston, by 13 to Phoenix and by 9 to Orlando all at home.  They are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall as well.  They have not played well without Ingram and Alvarado, and now Zion Williamson is questionable with a finger injury.  They should not be laying double-digits to the Spurs tonight.  Bet the Spurs Friday.

15* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Houston Rockets +4.5

The Houston Rockets fought hard to get back in the playoff race by winning 11 consecutive games prior to two straight losses to two of the best teams in the West in the Mavericks and Timberwolves.  They trail the Warriors by 3 games for the final play-in spot, and this is their 'last stand' tonight.

I think we get a massive effort from the Rockets, who should not be 4.5-point underdogs to the Warriors tonight.  The Rockets are 26-12 SU & 27-11 ATS at home this season with the best home-court advantage in the NBA from a ATS perspective.

The Warriors are getting too much respect after going 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall against a pretty soft schedule.  This is tired Warriors tam playing in their 6th different city in 10 days.  They know they can afford a loss to the Rockets and won't be fully dialed in, especially with a road game on deck against Dallas tomorrow that might have Kerr limit his starters' minutes as well.

Houston is 7-0 ATS after winning six or seven of its last eight games this season.  The Rockets are 16-7 ATS when revenging a same-season loss this season.  Houston is 9-1 ATS in home games against teams that average 7 or fewer steals per game this season.  Bet the Rockets Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Night BLOWOUT on Miami Heat -2.5

The Miami Heat are in playoff mode right now and a dangerous team when that's the case.  They are also as healthy as they have been in a long time.  The Heat currently sit in 6th place in the East just percentage points ahead of the 7th place Pacers.  They desperately want to avoid the play-in round at all costs.

The Heat have been playing with a sense of urgency in their last three games beating the Blazers by 60 at home, the Wizards by 12 on the road and the Knicks by 10 at home.  They are fresh and ready to go as they will be playing just their 4th game in 9 days.

The 76ers are getting too much respect as short road underdogs here.  They are coming off two consecutive victories against short-handed teams in the Raptors and Thunder which ended a 3-game skid.  Joel Embiid just returned from injury last game but is on a minutes limit and is questionable tonight.  The 76ers are still without De'Anthony Melton, and their next two best players in Tobias Harris and Tyrese Maxey are questionable tonight.  

I like the Heat regardless of who plays for the 76ers as this line should be higher than -2.5 even if the 76ers get good injury news.  But it's going to close a lot higher if they get poor injury news.  Bet the Heat Thursday.

15* Thunder/Celtics ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma City +9

The Oklahoma City Thunder have a lot to play for right now.  They trail the Nuggets by just 0.5 games for 1st place in the West.  I suspect they decided to rest their two best players in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams last night against the 76ers to save them for this game against Boston tonight.  There's a good chance they get one or both back, especially SGA.

Either way, I like the Thunder to be competitive tonight against a Boston Celtics team that has absolutely nothing to play for.  The Celtics have locked up the No. 1 seed in the East and are playing like it.  They have gone 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall with two outright losses to the Hawks as 16.5-point favorites and 10.5-point favorites.  Asking the Celtics to win this game by double-digits to beat us when they have nothing to play for is asking too much.

Boston is 3-15 ATS in its last 18 home games when revenging a road loss.  Bet the Thunder Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Wizards +12.5

The Washington Wizards have quietly gone 4-3 SU & 4-2-1 ATS in their last seven games overall and have not packed it in.  They have outright upset wins over the Kings as 11-point dogs, the Bulls as 12.5-point road dogs and the Bucks as 13-point dogs during this stretch.

Both the Lakers and Wizards will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back tonight, but the advantage goes to the Wizards getting to stay at home after playing at home last night, while the Lakers have to travel after winning in Toronto.  There's a chance the Wizards get both Kyle Kuzma and Richaun Holmes back from injury after both sat out last night as well.

The Wizards want revenge from a 134-131 (OT) loss as 9.5-point dogs at Los Angeles on February 29th.  The Wizards are actually 3-4 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Lakers with all four losses coming by 13 points or fewer.  

The Lakers are 3-12 ATS off a road win this season.  Bet the Wizards Wednesday.

15* Mavs/Warriors TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Dallas +1

The Dallas Mavericks are playing better than anyone in the NBA right now.  They are 11-1 SU & 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall with their lone loss coming at OKC as 10.5-point dogs without Luka Doncic.  They are almost fully healthy right now and playing their best basketball of the season.

What would surprise most people is that the Mavericks rank 4th in the NBA in defensive rating during this 11-1 run.  They have allowed 107 or fewer points in 10 of those 12 games.  Their trades for PJ Washington and Daniel Gafford are really paying dividends, and Doncic and Irving have great chemistry offensively.

The Warriors have won four in a row against suspect competition.  Now they take a big step up in class here against the Mavericks and are in a terrible spot.  The Warriors return home from a 5-game road trip, and I love fading teams returning home from extended trips because there are distractions to deal with back at home.  The Warriors are a tired team playing in their 6th different city in 10 days.

Golden State is 1-8 ATS in its last nine home games when playing 8 or more games in 14 days.  Dallas is 25-12 ATS in road games this season.  Bet the Mavericks Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Night BLOWOUT on Indiana Pacers -12

The Brooklyn Nets are just 4-9 SU & 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games overall and have fallen out of the playoff race.  They are coming off a 116-104 home loss to the Los Angeles Lakers last night and will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Pacers tonight.

The Pacers have a lot to play for right now and will not be taking the Nets lightly as a result.  They sit in 6th place in the East but just 0.5 games ahead of the Heat for the first play-in spot.  They don't want to have to go into the play-in.

The Pacers are 7-4 SU & 7-4 ATS in their last 11 games overall with all seven wins coming by double-digits.  They are fresh and ready to go after having the last two days off since blasting the Lakers by 19 at home.  These rest and motivational advantages are the reasons I'm willing to lay this big of a number with the Pacers tonight.

Brooklyn is 1-10 ATS in road games when playing 8 or more games in 14 days this season.  Indiana is 26-12 ATS in its last 38 games when playing just its 2nd game in 5 days.  The Pacers are 19-4 ATS against teams that average 7 or fewer steals per game this season.  They beat the Nets 121-100 in their lone meeting this season on March 16th.  It will be more of the same tonight.  Bet the Pacers Monday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Orlando Magic -15.5

The Orlando Magic crush bad teams like the Portland Trail Blazers.  They have gone 24-7 ATS as favorites this season including 9-1 ATS against a bad team that wins 25-40% of their games this season.  They are also 24-5 ATS against teams with a losing record this season.

The Magic have a lot to play for right now trying to fend off the Miami Heat for the Southeast Division Title.  They lead the Heat by two games for the title, meaning they are only two games ahead of the final play-in team as well.  They just crushed the Grizzlies by 30 last game at home, and I expect a similar result against the hapless Blazers tonight.

The Blazers are 0-9 SU in their last nine games overall with six losses by 12 points or more.  They have lost their last three games by 18 at Houston, by 14 at Atlanta and by 60 at Miami.  They have a G League lineup right now playing without their three best players in Malcolm Brogdon, Jerami Grant and Anfernee Simons.  They are just ready for this season to be over.

Orlando is 8-0 ATS after failing to cover three of its last four ATS this season.  Portland is 0-10 ATS after scoring 95 points or less this season.  Bet the Magic Monday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on New Orleans Pelicans +6.5

The Boston Celtics have nothing to play for for the rest of the regular season.  They are locked in to the No. 1 seed in the East, so they are going to be lacking motivation the rest of the way.  That gives us a great opportunity to fade them because they are going to continue to be priced as the best team in the league.

The Celtics probably are the best team in the league when healthy and motivated, but neither is the case right now.  That explains how they lost two consecutive games outright to the Hawks as 16.5-point favorites and 10.5-point favorites in their last two games coming in.  Now they are once again laying too many points as 6.5-point favorites at New Orleans.

The Pelicans are 10-3 SU & 8-4-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  They are motivated right now to avoid the play-in round as they are currently the 5th seed only one game back of the Clippers for the 4th seed, but also only 2.5 games ahead of the Suns for the 7th seed and the play-in.  They need wins right now while the Celtics do not.

New Orleans is a perfect 8-0 ATS against Atlantic Division opponents this season and winning by 18.1 points per game.  Bet the Pelicans Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Night BLOWOUT on Houston Rockets -7

The Houston Rockets have won 10 consecutive games and have gone 13-1 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  Six of their last seven wins have come by double-digits, so they aren't even letting teams hang around.  Don't look now but the Rockets sit just one game behind the Warriors for the final play-in spot in the West.  They have been motivated to get that spot and are playing like it.

The Rockets should be laying more than 7 points to the hapless Utah Jazz.  The Jazz are 0-7 SU & 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall, and 3-18 SU & 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games overall dating back further.  The problem for the Jazz is that they have been without their top two scorers in Jordan Clarkson and Lauri Markkanen for the majority of their last 21 games.  Clarkson remains out, and Markkanen is questionable.  They lost outright at home to the lowly Spurs even with Markkanen in the lineup last time out.

The Rockets beat the Jazz 147-119 as 11-point home favorites on March 23rd less than a week ago.  It will be more of the same in the rematch.  Houston is 13-1 ATS off three or more consecutive wins this season.  The Rockets are 13-1 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  Bet the Rockets Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Minnesota Timberwolves +7

The Minnesota Timberwolves continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers as 7-point underdogs to the Denver Nuggets tonight.  The Timberwolves are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with their lone loss coming by 3 points at home to the Nuggets.

But that was a terrible spot for the Timberwolves playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after winning a close game in Utah the previous night.  They were out of gas and still put up a valiant effort against a Nuggets team that came into that game with a day off prior.  The Nuggets had a huge rest advantage.

Now the Timberwolves are fresh playing just their 2nd game in 5 days and will be highly motivated for a win over the Nuggets, who they trail by 0.5 games for 1st place in the West.  The Nuggets were upset as identical 7-point home favorites against the Suns last time out and haven't had consecutive days off since March 3-4.  Jamal Murray is questionable to play tonight after missing the last three games, and Nikola Jokic is battling through a back injury.

Minnesota is a perfect 9-0 ATS when revenging a home loss this season.  I love this Timberwolves team because they rank 1st in defensive rating and bring it on that end every night.  They also clearly have a ton of resiliency.  Bet the Timberwolves Friday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Charlotte Hornets +12.5

The Charlotte Hornets showed some life in a 118-111 upset win as 10-point home dogs to the Cleveland Cavaliers last time out.  This is a pretty rested team as the Hornets will be playing just their 4th game in 10 days tonight.  They will get up for the Golden State Warriors tonight and give them a run for their money.

The Warriors are getting too much respect off two consecutive road wins at Miami and Orlando.  The Warriors are a tired team right now playing their 4th consecutive road game in 6 days.  Jonathan Kuminga is questionable to play tonight, and I question how much the Warriors have left in the tank for the Hornets in this one.

The Hornets have played a road-heavy schedule of late with 13 of their last 18 games on the highway.  They have been much more competitive at home.  In fact, the Hornets haven't lost any of their last 10 home games by more than 12 points.  That makes for a perfect 10-0 system backing Charlotte pertaining to this 12.5-point spread.  Bet the Hornets Friday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Houston Rockets +7

The Houston Rockets have won nine consecutive games and have gone 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  Each of their last six wins have come by double-digits, so they aren't even letting teams hang around.  Don't look now but the Rockets sit just one game behind the Warriors for the final play-in spot in the West.  They have been motivated to get that spot and are playing like it.

The Rockets should not be catching 7 points tonight against the Oklahoma City Thunder, who are in a terrible spot.  The Thunder will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 119-112 win at New Orleans last night.  All five starters played at least 30 minutes for the Thunder last night, and I question how much they'll have left in the tank for the Rockets tonight.

Houston is 12-1 ATS off three or more consecutive wins this season.  The Rockets are 7-0 ATS vs. teams that force 15 or more turnovers per game.  The Rockets also get Jabari Smith (13.3 PPG, 8.5 RPG) back from a one-game suspension tonight.  Bet the Rockets Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Memphis Grizzlies +4.5

This is a terrible spot for the Los Angeles Lakers tonight.  They are coming off a shocking upset win at 9.5-point road dogs at Milwaukee last night in double-OT.  Davis played 52 minutes, Russell 50 and Reaves 48 last night.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Memphis Grizzlies tonight, and don't be surprised if they rest some guys.

I like the Grizzlies when they have both Jaren Jackson Jr. and Desmond Bane healthy, which is the case for tonight.  The Grizzlies are also the kind of team that continues to show up every night despite their current standing.  They would love nothing more than to upset the Lakers, who are in a huge letdown spot off the win over the Bucks.

The Lakers are 0-7 ATS as a road favorite of 6 points or less this season.  Los Angeles is 1-11 ATS off a road win this season.  This will be just the 2nd game in 5 days for Memphis tonight so they will be the much fresher team.  Bet the Grizzlies Wednesday.

15* Clippers/76ers ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles -5.5

I love the spot for the Los Angeles Clippers tonight.  They are coming off two straight upset home losses to the 76ers and Pacers.  Now they get their shot at quick revenge against the 76ers on the road this time around.  They are fully healthy and primed for a big effort.  Ty Lue called out his team for being soft, and I expect the Clippers to respond with a blowout win tonight.

The 76ers are in a tough spot here returning home from a 4-game road trip after losing by 12 at Sacramento on the 2nd of a back-to-back after beating the Clippers.  They will be playing their 15th game in 27 days and haven't had consecutive days off since February.  They remain without Embiid and Melton and now Kelly Oubre Jr. is questionable tonight.  They just don't have much talent outside Tyrese Maxey right now.

The Clippers are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games after failing to cover four of their last five games.  Los Angeles is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 games off two consecutive losses as a home favorite.  Bet the Clippers Wednesday.

15* NBA Monday Night Line Mistake on Dallas Mavericks -8.5

The Dallas Mavericks are highly motivated for wins right now and playing like it.  They sit in 8th place in the West and currently in the play-in round, but just 0.5 games behind the Phoenix Suns for 6th place.  They have a lot to play for right now and will not be taking the Utah Jazz lightly.

I love the spot for the Mavericks as they have had the last three days off and will be fresh and ready to go.  They beat the Jazz 113-97 as 13.5-point home favorites four days ago to improve to 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  Their lone loss came by 7 at OKC as 10.5-point dogs without both Doncic and Irving.  The Mavericks are basically fully healthy right now.

The Jazz are an absolute mess right now.  They are 3-16 SU & 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games overall.  They have lost five consecutive games coming in all by double-digits, and each of their last seven losses have come by 10 points or more.  They have been playing without their top two scorers in Lauri Markkanen and Jordan Clarkson for much of this stretch and will likely rest both again tonight.  Kris Dunn has been suspended for this game as well.

Dallas is 15-4 ATS as a road favorite this season.  The Mavericks are 10-2 ATS off a win by 15 points or more this season.  Bet the Mavericks Monday.

15* NBA Monday Night BLOWOUT on Houston Rockets -12

The Houston Rockets have won eight consecutive games and have gone 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  Each of their last five wins have come by double-digits, so they aren't even letting teams hang around.  The short-handed Portland Trail Blazers won't be hanging around tonight, either.

Don't look now but the Rockets sit just one game behind the Warriors for the final play-in spot in the West.  They have been motivated to get that spot and are playing like it.  That's why I know they aren't going to take the Blazers lightly tonight, which is key when laying these big numbers.

The Blazers have lost six consecutive games coming in.  They are without Malcolm Brogdon and Jerami Grant tonight, with Anfernee Simons, DeAndre Ayton and Matisse Thybulle questionable to play as well.  I wouldn't be surprised if all of them sit given Portland's current standing.

Houston is 11-1 ATS off three or more consecutive wins this season.  The Rockets are 25-11 SU & 26-10 ATS in all home games this season.  Bet the Rockets Monday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on New Orleans Pelicans -12

The New Orleans Pelicans are rolling right now going 8-2 SU & 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall and coming off a 23-point road win at Miami.  Six of those eight wins have come by 13 points or more.  You can chalk up another today against the hapless Detroit Pistons.

The Pistons are just going through the motions right now going 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  Four of the five losses have come by 13 points or more, including their last three by 27 at home to Boston, by 19 at home to Indiana and by 25 at Boston.

Not only are the Pistons going through the motions right now, but injuries are really starting to pile up as well.  They are without Ausar Thompson, Quentin Grimes, Simone Fontechio, Isaiah Stewart and Stanley Umude.  Their biggest bright spot this season has been double-double machine Jalen Duren, and now he is questionable with a back injury.

The Pelicans are 31-15 ATS in their last 46 games as road favorites of 6.5 to 12 points.  The Pistons are 14-30 ATS in their last 44 non-conference home games.  Bet the Pelicans Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Orlando Magic -2.5

The Orlando Magic are the best covering team in the NBA and continue to get disrespected from oddsmakers.  The Magic are 42-28 SU & 45-23-2 ATS this season, including 25-8 SU & 24-9 ATS at home.  They have gone 13-3 SU & 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games overall with five striaght wins and covers all by 8 points or more.

The Sacramento Kings are coming off a 109-102 road loss to the short-handed Washington Wizards.  They also needed OT to beat Memphis at home and were upset by New York at home during a 1-3 ATS stretch in their last four.  They are getting too much respect here as only 2.5-point road dogs to the Magic with the way they are playing right now.  Bet the Magic Saturday.

15* NBA Thursday Night BLOWOUT on Houston Rockets -3.5

The Houston Rockets have gone 8-2 SU & 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Their only two losses came against two of the best teams in the West in covers in a 5-point loss at Phoenix as 8.5-point dogs and a 6-point loss to the Clippers as 6.5-point dogs.

The Rockets now have a legitimate shot to make the play-in and are fighting hard for it.  They are just 3 games back of the Warriors and 3.5 back of the Lakers for the final two spots.  They are rested and ready to go playing just their 2nd game in 5 days and will keep their foot on the gas at home tonight against the Chicago Bulls.  The Rockets are 23-11 SU & 24-10 ATS at home this season.

The Bulls are stuck in no-man's land.  They are 4 games behind the 76ers for the 8th seed and 3.5 games ahead of the Hawks for the 9th.  They are going to be in the play-in, and the most likely is they will be the 9th.  They don't have the sense of urgency that the Rockets do right now.  They also have some serious injury questions with Patrick Williams out, and both Coby White and Alex Caruso questionable tonight.  They may take the cautious approach with those two given their position in the standings.

Houston is 12-1 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  The Rockets are 9-0 ATS in home games when revenging a same-season loss this season.  Bet the Rockets Thursday.

20* Bucks/Celtics ESPN No-Brainer on Milwaukee +10.5

This line is an overreaction to the fact that the Milwaukee Bucks will be without Giannis tonight.  We saw what they were capable of without him in their last game when they beat Phoenix 140-129.  Ball movement was the key as they had 35 assists on their 51 made FG's including 16 from Lillard and 7 from Middleton, who recently returned from injury and is looking like his former self.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Celtics.  They have won and covered six consecutive games while also going 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  But they have faced a very soft schedule here of late and will be taking a big step up in class here.  Asking them to win by double-digits to beat us even without Giannis is asking too much.  Plus, Jaylen Brown, Jrue Holiday and Sam Hauser are all questionable for Boston tonight, so it's not like they aren't dealing with injuries of their own.

Boston is 3-14 ATS in its last 17 home games when revenging a road loss.  Bet the Bucks Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on San Antonio Spurs +9

The Dallas Mavericks are coming off a 107-105 upset home win over the defending champion Denver Nuggets.  Kyrie Irving hit a buzzer-beater with a left-handed floater in one of the luckiest shots you will ever see as a game-winner.  It's safe to say the Mavericks are now in a massive letdown spot off that huge win.

The San Antonio Spurs have quietly gone 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall and are improving here down the stretch.  That includes upset wins over both the Thunder and Pacers at home, as well as the Warriors on the road.  Asking the Mavericks to win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.

Dallas is 0-9 ATS in its last nine games off a close win by 3 points or less.  The Mavericks are 0-8 ATS off an upset win as an underdog this season.  Bet the Spurs Tuesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on New Orleans Pelicans -7

The New Orleans Pelicans have quietly gone 6-1 SU & 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games overall and are playing some of their best basketball of the season.  It's easy to see why as they are fully healthy and a dangerous team when that's the case.  They are 5th place in the West and motivated to avoid the play-in.

The Brooklyn Nets are coming off an upset loss to the Spurs and are now just 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall with losses to the lowly Pistons and Hornets as well.  They clearly aren't too concerned with making the play-in as they trail the Hawks by 4 games now.  Had they gone just 3-3 they'd be two games back.  This is a dead team walking right now.

New Orleans is 7-0 ATS against Atlantic Division opponents this season and outscoring them by 18.8 points per game.  The Pelicans beat the Nets 112-85 in their lone meeting this season.  New Orleans is 30-15 ATS in its last 45 games as a road favorite of 6.5 to 12 points.  Bet the Pelicans Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Night BLOWOUT on Indiana Pacers -6.5

Cleveland will be without Donovan Mitchell (27.4 PPG), Evan Mobley (15.6 PPG) and Max Strus (12.2 PPG) tonight.  Not having Mitchell in the lineup here of late has really hampered them offensively as they have averaged just 106.0 points per game in their last eight games.  They have gone just 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games overall and have been consistently overvalued due to these injuries.

The Indiana Pacers sit in 6th place in the East just a half-game ahead of both the Heat and 76ers for the 7th and 8th seeds, which would be the play-in teams.  They desperately want to avoid the play-in and are playing like it.  

They are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with blowout wins by 14 at Orlando, by 10 at OKC and by 21 at home over Brooklyn.  The lone loss came in OT to the Bulls on the 2nd of a back-to-back after the upset win at OKC, which was predictable. They are fresh right now playing just their 2nd game in 5 days as well.  Bet the Pacers Monday.

15* NBA Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Oklahoma City Thunder -9.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are fighting for the No. 1 seed in the West with a lot to play for right now.  They have gone 11-3 SU in their last 14 games overall with seven wins by 13 points or more and 10 wins by 7 points or more.  I fully expect them to make easy work of the hapless Memphis Grizzlies tonight.

No team has been hit harder by injuries than the Grizzlies and they continue to pile up late in the season.  They have gone just 3-8 SU in their last 11 games overall with three wins coming against the Nets, 76ers and Wizards.  They have been blown out on a regular basis, including a 124-93 loss at OKC on March 10th less than a week ago.  It will be more of the same tonight.  Bet the Thunder Saturday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Detroit Pistons +8.5

The Detroit Pistons have quietly gone 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  They lost 118-110 at Miami as 11-point dogs during this stretch, and now they'll want revenge as 8.5-point home dogs in the rematch tonight.

I think this is a flat spot for the Heat, who fell short in their bid for revenge on the Denver Nuggets in their last game.  They lost 100-88 to fall to 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games.  They are now 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games overall and grossly overvalued.  They are without Tyler Herro, Josh Richardson and Kevin Love right now, and the Terry Rozier experiment just isn't working out.

Miami is 3-11 ATS off two consecutive losses this season.  Detroit is 11-3 ATS off two consecutive home games this season.  The Heat are 20-40 ATS in their last 60 games against a team with a losing record.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Detroit) - a poor team that is outscored by 3-plus points per game, after allowing 105 points or fewer in two consecutive games are 44-13 (77.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Pistons Friday.

15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Charlotte Hornets +10

The Charlotte Hornets have quietly gone 11-6-1 ATS in their last 18 games overall.  This young team just keeps showing up on a nightly basis.  They will relish the opportunity to try and take down the Phoenix Suns at home tonight.

The Suns are in a terrible spot here.  They failed to get revenge in a 127-112 road loss at Boston last night after losing to the Celtics at home less than a week earlier.  Now they are in a flat spot here as they won't nearly be as motivated to beat the Hornets tonight.  

This is also a sandwich spot for the Suns, who have another big game on deck at Milwaukee on Sunday.  They are a tired team after Devin Booker played 38 minutes, Bradley Beal 36, Kevin Durant 34, Grayson Allen 36 and Jusuf Nurkic 31 last night.  They have zero depth, so they can't handle this back-to-back situations as well as other NBA teams with depth.

The Suns are 7-21 ATS after going over the total in their previous game this season.  Bet the Hornets Friday.

20* Suns/Celtics TNT No-Brainer on Phoenix +6

I love the spot for the Phoenix Suns tonight.  They just got Devin Booker back from injury and promptly beat Cleveland on the road last time out.  Now they have had the last two days off and will be fresh and nearly fully healthy for this rematch against the Boston Celtics tonight.

The Suns didn't have Booker when they lost 117-107 at home to the Celtics on March 9th.  So they will now be out for revenge on the Celtics from that defeat, and I like their chances of staying within 6 points and possibly pulling off the upset in the rematch.

Boston doesn't have much to play for the rest of the way and will have a hard time getting motivated to beat the Suns again.  This is a terrible spot for the Celtics, who are returning home from a 5-game road trip.  I always like fading teams in that first home game back from a long road trip because there are a ton of distractions to deal with back at home.  

They will also be playing in their 6th different city in 10 days, will be without Kristaps Porzingis tonight, and could be without Jaylen Brown who is questionable.  This is a tired team right now.  The Suns are the fresher, more motivated team, which is exactly the type of team I'm looking to back in the NBA.  Bet the Suns Thursday.

15* Lakers/Kings ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +1

I love the spot for the Los Angeles Lakers tonight.  They have won three of their last four games beating three of the top teams in the NBA in the Thunder, Bucks and Timberwolves.  Now they have their sights set on revenge after losing each of their first three meetings this season with the Kings, including blowing a double-digit lead in their lone loss in their last four games.

The Lakers have a massive rest advantage here.  They have had the last two days off, while the Kings will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a win over the Milwaukee Bucks last night.  That win ended a 15-game losing streak to the Bucks, so this game has letdown written all over it for the Kings, who won't be that motivated to beat the Lakers again.

Sacramento is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 home games when playing 6 or more games in 10 days.  The Kings are 4-13 ATS off a win by 10 points or more this season.  Bet the Lakers Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Miami Heat +4.5

This is a great spot to 'buy low' on the Miami Heat off three consecutive losses.  They lost two tough road games to Dallas (by 6) and OKC (by 7) before having a letdown at home in an upset loss to the Wizards.  They were clearly looking ahead to this game against the Denver Nuggets.

Miami wants revenge after losing 4-1 to the Nuggets in the NBA Finals last season.  They also lost a 103-97 heartbreaker at Denver just a few games ago on February 29th.  Now they get the Nuggets at home and I think it will make all the difference.

This is a great time to 'sell high' on the Nuggets, who have won three consecutive games and nine of their last 10 games overall.  They won't be that motivated to beat the Heat again tonight.  This game has letdown written all over it for the Nuggets.

Denver is 4-12 ATS off three or more consecutive wins this season.  Miami is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 home games off an loss by 3 points or less to a division opponent.  Bet the Heat Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on New York Knicks -6

The New York Knicks will be highly motivated for revenge from a bad 79-73 home loss to the Philadelphia 76ers on Sunday.  They couldn't throw the ball in the ocean, hitting 32.5% as a team and 9-of-40 (22.5%) from 3-point range.  They won't shoot that poorly again, and there's a good chance OG Anunoby returns from injury tonight as he has been upgraded to questionable.

Philadelphia is 26-8 with Joel Embiid (35.3 PPG, 11.3 RPG, 5.7 APG) in the lineup and 10-20 without him this season.  The 76ers are without De'Anthony Melton (11.5 PPG, 3.1 APG) as well. It's easy to see why the 76ers have been a bet against team since losing Embiid.  They are 7-15 SU in their last 22 games overall and 7-17 ATS in their last 24 games.  

They were upset by Brooklyn as road favorites and upset by Memphis as home favorites while losing by 8 at home to the Pelicans as 8-point dogs in a score that was very misleading as New Orleans led by 30 before calling off the dogs.  That was a rare win over the Knicks on Sunday without Embiid.

Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (New York) - revenging a SU loss as a favorite of 7 or more against an opponent that is off a road win are 76-35 (68.5%) ATS since 1996.  Plays on favorites (New York) - revenging a SU loss as a home favorite of 7 or more against an opponent off an upset win as a road underdog are 38-13 (74.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Knicks Tuesday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Dallas Mavericks -3.5

The Dallas Mavericks traded for PJ Washington and Daniel Gafford and both are making significant contributions.  C Dereck Lively II returns tonight and is their best defender and a key contributor.  So the Mavericks are fully healthy heading into this game against the Chicago Bulls, and a dangerous team when that's the case.

This is a very tough spot for the Bulls.  They are coming off an impressive 4-game road trip in which they won their first three games over the Kings, Jazz and Warriors, but then blew a double-digit lead in a 10-point loss to the Clippers in the finale.  I always like fading teams in that first home game back from an extended road trip.  This is a tired Bulls team playing in their 5th different city in 8 days.

Dallas is 14-3 ATS as a road favorite this season.  The Mavericks have done their best work on the highway against teams like the Bulls that they are supposed to beat.  Bet the Mavericks Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on San Antonio Spurs +4.5

The Golden State Warriors will be without Stephen Curry tonight after suffering an ankle injury in an upset home loss to the Bulls two games ago.  Curry (26.9 PPG, 4.9 APG) is the one player the Warriors cannot afford to lose and he means more to his team than perhaps any other player in the NBA.  The Warriors should not be favored on the road over the Spurs without him.

The Warriors are 81-146 SU without Curry in his career, including 0-4 SU this season losing by 13 at home to the Timberwolves, by 19 at home to the Thunder, by 11 at the Bucks and by 13 at home to the Spurs despite being 11-point favorites last time out.

San Antonio has quietly gone 7-2 ATS in its last nine games overall and is still continuing to show up every night.  The Spurs even nearly upset the Kings as 11-point road dogs two games ago despite being without Victor Wembenyama in a 129-131 defeat.  They beat the Warriors by 13 as 11-point dogs without both Wembenyama and Devin Vassell last time out.  Well, they are expected to get both Wembenyama and Vassell back for tonight's rematch.

Golden State is 5-20 ATS in its last 25 road games after losing two of its last three games coming in.  The Warriors are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games against a team that wins 25% or less of their games on the season.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Spurs Monday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Phoenix Suns -6

This is a very tough spot for the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days.  They are short-handed right now playing without Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, Max Strus and Dean Wade.  I don't think they'll have anything left in the tank for the Suns tonight.

I like the spot for the Suns coming off a tough home loss to Boston despite playing without Devin Booker.  But Booker makes his much anticipated return from injury tonight, and the Suns have been a dangerous team this season when Booker, Durant and Beal have been on the court at the same time.  They should handle the Cavaliers in this spot.

Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Phoenix) - after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 42-15 (73.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Suns Monday.

15* 76ers/Knicks ESPN ANNIHILATOR on New York -6.5

Philadelphia is 26-8 with Joel Embiid (35.3 PPG, 11.3 RPG, 5.7 APG) in the lineup and 9-20 without him this season.  But it's worse than that right now because the 76ers are without their 2nd-best player in Tyrese Maxey (26.0 PPG, 6.3 APG).  Not to mention, they are without De'Anthony Melton (11.5 PPG, 3.1 APG) as well.

It's easy to see why the 76ers have been a bet against team since losing Embiid.  They are 6-15 SU in their last 21 games overall and 6-17 ATS in their last 23 games.  They were upset by Brooklyn as road favorites and upset by Memphis as home favorites while losing by 8 at home to the Pelicans as 8-point dogs in a score that was very misleading as New Orleans led by 30 before calling off the dogs.  They won't be able to hang with the Knicks on the road, either.

The Knicks just got Jalen Brunson back from injury and it made all the difference in a 98-74 home win over the Orlando Magic.  Brunson looked to be back to his former self scoring 26 points on 11-of-19 shooting including 4-of-7 from 3-point range.  This team goes as he goes, and they should make easy work of the short-handed 76ers tonight.

New York is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games after scoring 105 points or fewer in two consecutive games. Bet the Knicks Sunday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on San Antonio Spurs +9.5

The Golden State Warriors will be without Stephen Curry tonight after suffering an ankle injury in an upset home loss to the Bulls last time out.  Curry (26.9 PPG, 4.9 APG) is the one player the Warriors cannot afford to lose and he means more to his team than perhaps any other player in the NBA.  Asking the Warriors to win this game by double-digits to beat us without Curry is asking too much.

San Antonio has quietly gone 6-2 ATS in its last eight games overall and is still continuing to show up every night.  The Spurs even nearly upset the Kings as 11-point road dogs last game despite being without Victor Wembenyama in a 129-131 defeat.  Wembenyama doesn't mean nearly as much to this team as Curry does for the Warriors, and his absence is being factored into this line too much.  

The Warriors are 81-145 SU without Curry in his career, including 0-3 SU this season losing by 13 at home to the Timberwolves, by 19 at home to the Thunder and by 11 at the Bucks.  Bet the Spurs Saturday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Orlando Magic -1

Injuries have really hurt the New York Knicks here down the stretch.  The Knicks are 4-9 SU & 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games as a result with their four wins coming against the Pistons by 2, the Grizzlies, the short-handed 76ers and the short-handed Cavs.  They are coming off a 16-point home loss to the short-handed Hawks.

The Knicks have been without Julius Randle (24.0 PPG, 9.2 RPG) and OG Anunoby (15.6 PPG) during this entire stretch.  Jalen Brunson (27.2 PPG, 6.6 APG) has played in most of these games and he just cannot do it on his own.  But now Brunson is battling injury due to such a heavy workload.  He missed their last two games and is questionable to play tonight.

The Orlando Magic have been the single-most underrated team in the NBA this season.  The Magic are 37-26 SU & 40-21-2 ATS this season.  They are really rolling right now going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall with all five wins coming by 8 points or more and by an average of 15.8 points per game.  They are fully healthy and showing what they are capable of when that's the case.

Orlando is 19-5 ATS as a favorite this season.  New York is 12-21 ATS vs. a team with a winning record this season.  The Magic should be bigger favorites given the circumstances tonight, but the Knicks continue to get respect when they shouldn't be.  Bet the Magic Friday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New Orleans Pelicans -7.5

The New Orleans Pelicans have played their best basketball on the road this season going 16-6 SU & 14-8 ATS in their last 22 road games.  They are fully healthy right now and a dangerous team when that's the case.  They beat Indiana by 27 at home and Toronto by 41 on the road in their last two games coming in.

The Pelicans couldn't be any fresher right now as not only did they have the All-Star Break, but they will now be playing just their 2nd game in 7 days tonight.  I expect them to make easy work of the short-handed Philadelphia 76ers in this one.

Philadelphia is 26-8 with Joel Embiid (35.3 PPG, 11.3 RPG, 5.7 APG) in the lineup and 9-19 without him this season.  But it's worse than that right now because the 76ers are without their 2nd-best player as well in Tyrese Maxey (26.0 PPG, 6.3 APG).  Not to mention, they are without De'Anthony Melton (11.5 PPG, 3.1 APG) as well.

It's easy to see why the 76ers have been a bet against team since losing Embiid.  They are 6-14 SU in their last 20 games overall and 6-16 ATS in their last 22 games.  They just lost by 6 at home to the Grizzlies as 5.5-point favorites in their last game.  It won't get any easier tonight against the Pelicans.

New Orleans is a perfect 7-0 ATS against Atlantic Division opponents this season.  Philadelphia is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 home games while consistently being overvalued at home.  Bet the Pelicans Friday.

15* Thunder/Suns ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Oklahoma City -5.5

I love the spot for the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight.  They are coming off an upset road loss at San Antonio in one of their worst performances of the season.  They had gone 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their previous ix games with all six wins coming by 13 points or more.  They simply had a letdown and may have been looking ahead to this game against Phoenix.

Now the Thunder are rested and ready to go coming in on two days' rest.  The Suns are a tired team playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 118-109 loss to the Rockets on Saturday.  They lost Devin Booker to injury in that defeat and I have to think he is out for this one as well.  Plus, Jusuf Nurkic, Royce O'Neale and Eric Gordon are all questionable.  Kevin Durant is tired and Bradley Beal is not playing full minutes yet.  The Suns are a mess right now.

Oklahoma City is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games after allowing 130 points or more.  Phoenix is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 home games after three or more consecutive unders.  The Suns are 0-8 ATS in home games vs. teams that are outrebounded by 3-plus boards per game this season.  Bet the Thunder Sunday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Dallas Mavericks -7.5

The Dallas Mavericks are 8-3 SU & 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall and are fully healthy for basically the first time all season.  The Mavericks have three road losses to Indiana, Boston and Cleveland during this stretch, but they are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS at home with all four wins coming by 8 points or more including a 35-point win over OKC and a 10-point win over Phoenix.

The 76ers are 26-8 with Joel Embiid and 8-17 without him.  They have gone 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games overall and have been grossly overvalued without him.  Not to mention, they are without another key scorer in De'Anthony Melton right now, while Kelly Oubre Jr. is questionable.  I just can't see them being able to keep pace with the Mavericks today.  Bet the Mavericks Sunday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Pistons +9.5

The Detroit Pistons have quietly gone 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games overall and continue to show up every night.  They followed up their tough 113-111 loss at New York as 11.5-point dogs with a 105-95 upset as 10.5-point dogs at Chicago on the 2nd of a back-to-back.  Now the Pistons have had the last two days off and are fresh and ready to give the Cleveland Cavaliers a run for their money.

Cleveland has been grossly overvalued of late going 3-4 SU & 0-7 ATS in its last seven games overall.  Donovan Mitchell is questionable to play tonight with a knee injury and is unlikely to go.  This is a tired Cavaliers team that will be playing their 6th game in 9 days.  Asking them to go on the road and win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.

Detroit will be playing with triple revenge this season losing the first three meetings to the Cavaliers by 7, 9 and 8 points.  The Pistons don't want to get swept, and if they do a 9-point loss or less works for us.

The Pistons are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games when playing 5 or less games in 14 days.  The Pistons are 18-9 ATS when revenging a same-season loss this season.  Bet the Pistons Friday.

20* Wizards/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Washington +9.5

The Los Angeles Lakers are in a brutal spot tonight.  They came back from 21 points down in the 4th quarter to beat their hated rivals in the Los Angeles Clippers last night.  It was the largest comeback of LeBron James' career in the 4th quarter, and he was the catalyst.

Now the Lakers are a very tired team with James questionable to play tonight in the 2nd of a back-to-back.  He played 37 minutes, Anthony Davis 36, Russell 34 and Reaves 36 last night.  They aren't a very deep team right now due to missing Wood, Vincent and Vanderbilt as well.

The Wizards will relish this opportunity to try and knock off the Lakers on the road.  They have played their best basketball on the road this season going 19-10-1 ATS in road games.  They had yesterday off and took both the Cavaliers and Warriors to the wire in their last two games, so they have been competitive and have not quit.

The Lakers are 1-10 ATS off a road win this season.  Washington is 11-2 ATS in road games after going under the total in its previous game this season.  The Wizards are a perfect 11-0 ATS in road games vs. poor defensive teams that allow 116 or more points per game this season.  Bet the Wizards Thursday.

20* Heat/Nuggets TNT No-Brainer on Miami +5

The Miami Heat want revenge after losing 4-1 in the NBA Finals to the Denver Nuggets last season.  This is their first chance at revenge in the 2023-24 season, and I expect them to take advantage now that they are playing their best basketball of the season, plus the fact that they have the rest advantage.

The Heat are 9-2 SU & 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall with their lone losses coming by 4 to Boston and by 8 to the Clippers.  They are 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six road games including upset wins at Milwaukee by 26 as 8-point dogs, at Philadelphia by 5 as 3-point dogs, at New Orleans by 11 as 3-point dogs and at Sacramento by 11 as 7.5-point dogs.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Nuggets, who are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games against a very weak schedule.  Their lone impressive win was at Golden State, but they also beat Washington and Portland and Sacramento without De'Aaron Fox.  The Nuggets needed a comeback win last night against the Kings, and Jamal Murray is questionable to play tonight after scoring 32 points on 13-of-15 shooting.  I'll gladly fade the Nuggets playing the 2nd of a back-to-back tonight.  Bet the Heat Thursday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Toronto Raptors +3

The Toronto Raptors have quietly gone 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall with their lone loss coming by 2 to Indiana going into the break.  They have come out of the break on fire with a 28-point win over Brooklyn as 1-point home favorites, a 2-point win at Atlanta as 8-point dogs and an 8-point win at Indiana as 5.5-point dogs.

The Raptors are still very much alive for the play-in in the Eastern Conference trailing the reeling Hawks and Bulls.  They are playing with a fire under their belly to try and make it.  The Raptors have a big rest advantage over the Dallas Mavericks tonight.  This will be just the 2nd game in 5 days for the Raptors, who are fully healthy right now.

Dallas will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and its 3rd road game in 4 days.  The Mavericks will have to try and get back up off the mat after losing on a half court buzzer-beater to the Cleveland Cavaliers last night.  Luke Doncis played 41 minutes and had 45 points, 14 assists and 9 rebounds while Kyrie Irving played 39 minutes and scored 30 points, and it still wasn't enough.  I question how much these two and the Mavericks have left in the tank tonight.

Toronto is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 home games off two consecutive road games.  Dallas is 16-30 ATS in its last 46 non-conference games.  Toronto has pulled the outright upset in each of its last two meetings with Dallas, including on the road earlier this season.  Bet the Raptors Wednesday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Charlotte Hornets +14.5

The Charlotte Hornets are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  Their only non-cover came on the 2nd of a back-to-back on the road to the Warriors by 13 as 12.5-point dogs.  The Warriors got a layup in the final seconds to cover when they could have ran out the shot clock.

The point is the Hornets are a team that keeps fighting.  They have won all five of those games outright as underdogs beating Memphis 115-106 as 5-point dogs, Indiana 111-102 as 10-point dogs, Atlanta 122-109 as 7-point dogs, Utah 115-107 as 10-point dogs and Portland 93-80 as 3.5-point dogs.

It's a good time to 'sell high' on the Milwaukee Bucks.  They are coming off two consecutive huge road wins over the Timberwolves and 76ers.  They won't be nearly as motivated to beat the Hornets, who they just blew out at home in early February.  But this is a different Hornets team now, and they will be the more motivated team for revenge.  Getting 14.5 points here is too much.

Charlotte is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 road games after allowing 105 points or fewer last game.  The Hornets are playing elite defense right now holding their last six opponents to an average of 98.5 points per game, which is unheard of in today's NBA.  Bet the Hornets Tuesday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New Orleans Pelicans -2.5

I love the spot for the New Orleans Pelicans tonight.  They are coming off two consecutive upset home losses to the Heat and Bulls.  But they have played their best basketball on the road this season, and they will be happy to get to play at Madison Square Garden tonight.

The Pelicans are 15-4 SU & 14-5 ATS in their last 19 road games.  They have a big rest advantage tonight after having yesterday off.  Meanwhile, the Knicks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after needing a basket in the final seconds to beat the Pistons 113-111 as 11.5-point home favorites on Monday.

The Knicks have been struggling lately due to all the injuries that have mounted up.  The Knicks are 3-6 SU & 1-8 ATS in their last nine games overall.  They are without three of their best players in Randle, Anunoby and Robinson.  Josh Hart played 42 minutes, Jalen Brunson 40 and Dante ViVincenzo 32 last night.  The Knicks won't have much left in the tank for the Pelicans tonight.  Bet the Pelicans Tuesday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Atlanta Hawks PK

It's addition by subtraction for the Atlanta Hawks.  They have actually been better without Trae Young than with him this season.  They proved it again last time out with a 109-92 home win over the Orlando Magic last time out.  They are certainly much better defensively without Young, and Dejounte Murray plays better when he is running the offense rather than playing off the ball.

The Utah Jazz are a mess right now going 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall with their lone win coming at home over the lowly San Antonio Spurs.  They lost by 8 as 10-point favorites to the Hornets, by 3 to the Warriors who were playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, by 16 at home to the Lakers, by 22 at home to the Warriors and by 14 at Phoenix.  They are all but eliminated from playoff contention because they would have to chase down the Warriors or Lakers for the final two play-in spots, which they know isn't happening.

The Jazz are 9-20 SU & 13-16 ATS on the road this season where they are getting outscored by 10.0 points pre game.  Atlanta is trying to fend off two teams for the final play-in spot in the East.  Bet the Hawks Tuesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Memphis Grizzlies +2.5

Finding teams like the Memphis Grizzlies who are out of playoff contention but continue to show up and fight every night is one key to winning in the NBA late in the season.  The Grizzlies are 10-5 ATS in their last 15 games overall.  They are 4-0 ATS in their last four games taking both New Orleans and the Clippers to the wire in two losses, while also upsetting both Houston and Milwaukee.

Finding teams like the Brooklyn Nets who seem to care less about winning games and fading them is also one key to winning in the NBA late in the season.  The Nets are 8-25 SU & 8-24-1 ATS in their last 33 games overall.  Their last three games were very concerning.  They lost by 50 at Boston, by 28 at Toronto and by 15 at Minnesota.  They aren't even trying right now, and they should not be favored over the Grizzlies, who at least get after it defensively ranking 10th in the NBA in defensive rating.

Memphis is 8-0 ATS in its last eight home games off three or more consecutive home games.  Brooklyn is 1-10 ATS in road games after losing six or seven of its last eight games this season.  The Nets are 2-14 ATS in road games vs. teams who shoot 24 or fewer free throws per game.  The Grizzlies are 11-1 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. teams that shoot 21 or fewer free throws per game in the 2nd half of the season.  Bet the Grizzlies Monday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Charlotte Hornets +3.5

The Charlotte Hornets are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  Their only non-cover came on the 2nd of a back-to-back on the road to the Warriors by 13 as 12.5-point dogs.  The Warriors got a layup in the final seconds to cover when they could have ran out the shot clock.

The point is the Hornets are a team that keeps fighting.  They have won all four of those games outright as underdogs beating Memphis 115-106 as 5-point dogs, Indiana 111-102 as 10-point dogs, Atlanta 122-109 as 7-point dogs and Utah 115-107 as 10-point dogs.

Now the Hornets take on a hapless Portland Trail Blazers that has no business being favored over them in their current state.  The Blazers are 0-7 SU in their last seven games overall losing all seven games by 6 points or more, and six by 9 points or more.  They are without Malcolm Brogdon, Scoot Henderson and Shaedon Sharpe right now and struggling to score without these guys.  They have scored 112 or fewer points in six of their last seven games with the lone exception being 122 against the Pistons in OT.

Portland is 1-9 ATS in home games when playing 6 or fewer games in 14 days this season.  Charlotte is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 road games after allowing 105 points or less.  The Hornets are only allowing 102.2 points per game in their last five games and are getting after it defensively.  Bet the Hornets Sunday.

25* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Golden State Warriors +1

The Golden State Warriors are motivated to make the playoffs.  They are playing as well as anyone in the NBA right now.  They have gone 8-1 SU & 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall with their only loss coming to the Clippers.  The Clippers rallied from a double-digit deficit in the 4th quarter after Tyron Lue was ejected and they couldn't miss from 3 down the stretch.

The Warriors also want some revenge on the defending champion Denver Nuggets.  They are 0-3 SU against the Nuggets this season losing by 3, 3 and 6 points.  They have been close, but they haven't been able to get over the hump.  Now I fully expect them to get over the hump and avoid the season sweep.

The Nuggets have two starters questionable to play in this one in Jamaal Murray and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope.  This isn't a very deep team as it is, so missing one or both would be big.  But I like the Warriors to get the job done either way.

Golden State is 14-2 ATS in its last 16 home games off two consecutive covers as a favorite.  Plays against favorites (Denver) - after scoring 120 points or more against an opponent that is coming off a game with a combined score of 185 points or less are 29-9 (76.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Warriors Sunday.

20* Celtics/Knicks ABC No-Brainer on New York +6.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the New York Knicks and 'sell high' on the Boston Celtics.  The Knicks went into the All-Star Break going 1-5 SU & 0-6 ATS in their final six games.  But their struggles were largely due to injuries to Brunson, DiVincenzo and Hartenstein.  All three came back from the break healthy.

I successfully backed the Knicks on the ML as underdogs in a 110-96 win at Philadelphia in their first game back from the break.  And now I'm back on them as 6.5-point home dogs to the Celtics as they still look undervalued in the market place.

Boston is the consensus best team in the NBA.  But with that consensus comes expectations that are hard to live up to.  You're paying a tax on the Celtics right now due to having the best record in the NBA and being on a 7-game winning streak.  But Boston is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games overall, and if they manage to win this game, it will go down to the wire against the feisty Knicks.

New York is 12-2 ATS in home games with a total of 220 to 229.5 this season.  Boston is 12-25 ATS in its last 37 games off two consecutive covers as favorites.  The Knicks are 13-2 ATS in their last 15 games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 3-plus points per game in the 2nd half of the season.  Bet the Knicks Saturday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Charlotte Hornets +13

One key to winning in the NBA is finding undervalued teams out of the playoff hunt that continue to play hard every night.  One of those teams is the Charlotte Hornets.  The Hornets have quietly gone 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  

That includes 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall with outright upset victories over Memphis by 9 as 5-point dogs, over Indiana by 9 as 10-point dogs, by 23 over Atlanta as 7-point dogs and by 8 over Utah as 10-point dogs.  This is a young team that has not quit, and the players they traded for are making an immediate impact and playing with a chip on their shoulder.

Golden State is overvalued off a 128-110 home win over the Los Angeles Lakers last night.  They wanted revenge on the Lakers after losing 145-144 (OT) at home to them in their previous meeting and they got it.  But keep in mind it was without LeBron James.  Plus, this is now a huge sandwich spot for them with defending champion Denver on deck at home on Sunday that they could be looking ahead to.  I don't think we get a max effort from the Warriors, which is going to make it very difficult for them to cover this inflated 13-point spread.  Bet the Hornets Friday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Memphis Grizzlies +9.5

One key to winning in the NBA is finding undervalued teams out of the playoff hunt that continue to play hard every night.  One of those teams is the Memphis Grizzlies.  They went into the All-Star Break covering three straight including outright upsets over Houston 121-113 as 3-point home dogs and Milwaukee 113-110 as 12-point home dogs the very next night on the 2nd of a back-to-back.

Everyone is talking about the Los Angeles Clippers winning the NBA title right now.  As a result, the Clippers are overvalued.  They are 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  They are playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 107-129 loss in Oklahoma City last night.  Asking them to win by double-digits on the road to beat us here is asking too much.

The Clippers are 6-19 ATS in their last 25 games off a road loss by 10 points or more.  Los Angeles is 9-18 ATS after playing a road game this season.  The Grizzlies are 29-14 ATS in their last 43 games when playing with double revenge.  Bet the Grizzlies Friday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Cleveland Cavaliers -3.5

I love the spot for the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight.  They are coming off an upset home loss to the Orlando Magic last night, who have been the best covering team in the NBA and are grossly undervalued.  But the Cavaliers also didn't have their best player in Donovan Mitchell due to illness in that loss.

My best guess is Mitchell returns tonight, but I like the Cavaliers either way.  I'll gladly fade the 76ers again like I did with the Knicks easily cashing on the Knicks ML +100 in a 110-96 victory over the 76ers in a game that wasn't even that close.

The Philadelphia 76ers remain without Joel Embiid and the difference between being with or without him has been drastic for this team.  The 76ers are 26-8 with Embiid in the lineup but just 6-15 without him.  They should not be getting this much respect tonight without him.

Cleveland is 12-4 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  The Cavaliers are 17-3 SU & 12-8 ATS in their last 20 games overall.  Philadelphia is 0-7 ATS in its last seven home games vs. good passing teams that average 23 or more assists per game.  Bet the Cavaliers Friday.

15* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Wizards +15.5

The Washington Wizards have been a great bet on the road this season.  They have gone 19-8-1 ATS in their 28 road games as one of the best covering teams on the highway in the NBA this season.  They are consistently catching too many points away from home, and that's the case again tonight as 15.5-point dogs at Denver.

The Nuggets have been kind of bored just waiting for the playoffs to get here.  The defending champs are having that dreaded title hangover.  They are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall losing by 29 at Sacramento, by 17 at Milwaukee and by 4 at home to Sacramento in the rematch in a game you would have expected them to fire back in.  The Nuggets are now just 8-16-1 ATS in their last 25 games overall.

Washington is 7-0 ATS in non-conference road games this season.  The Wizards are 18-4 ATS in their last 22 road games off a non-conference game.  Washington is 7-0 ATS in road games off five or more consecutive losses this season.  Denver is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 home games vs. poor teams that are outscoring by 3-plus points per game in the 2nd half of the season.  Bet the Wizards Thursday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Charlotte Hornets +10

The Charlotte Hornets quietly went 5-1 ATS in their final six games going into the All-Star Break.  That includes 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their final three games with outright upset victories over Memphis by 9 as 5-point dogs, over Indiana by 9 as 10-point dogs and by 23 over Atlanta as 7-point dogs.  This is a young team that has not quit, and the players they traded for are making an immediate impact.

The Utah Jazz went 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their final four games going into the break to all but play themselves out of playoff contention.  Three of the four losses came by 14 points or more.  I question their motivation the rest of the way, and they are so poor defensively that they cannot be laying double-digits to Charlotte tonight.  They have allowed 129 or more points in four consecutive games.

Charlotte is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games after allowing 105 points or less.  Utah is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games when playing 5 or fewer games in 14 days.  Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Charlotte) - a poor team that is outscored by 3-plus points per game, after allowing 105 points or fewer in two consecutive games are 43-13 (76.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Hornets Thursday.

20* NBA Thursday Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland Trail Blazers +9.5

I like the spot for the Portland Trail Blazers tonight.  They will want revenge from a 121-109 home loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves on Tuesday.  Now they get their shot at revenge at home again, and they go from 7.5-point dogs to 9.5-point dogs in the rematch, which is too big of an adjusment.

The Timberwolves are looking ahead to the All-Star Break and want nothing to do with this game tonight.  They won't be motivated at all to beat the Blazers again, which will make it difficult for them to win by double-digits, which is what it is going to take to beat us tonight.

We saw the Blazers in a similar spot less than a week ago.  They lost by 12 in Denver as 12.5-point dogs and only lost by 9 to the Nuggets in the rematch as 14.5-point dogs.  Minnesota is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games after covering 5 or 6 of its last seven games.  Bet the Blazers Thursday.

20* Clippers/Warriors ESPN No-Brainer on Golden State -2.5

The Golden State Warriors are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They are 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall with their lone loss coming on the 2nd of a back-to-back on the road in OT at Atlanta.  They have home wins over the Suns and 76ers, as well as road wins over the Grizzlies by 20, the Nets by 11, the 76ers by 24, the Pacers by 22 and the Jazz by 22.  These games haven't even been close.

The Los Angeles Clippers are limping into the All-Star Break having gone 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.  They were upset by the Pelicans at home by 11 as 6-point favorites, only beat the Pistons by 6 as 17-point home favorites and lost by 21 at home to the Timberwolves as 4.5-point favorites.

Now the Clippers will be without their best player in Kawhi Leonard (24.1 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 3.7 APG) tonight.  This team goes as Leonard goes, and I don't expect them to put up much of a fight without him tonight.

Home-court advantage has meant everything in this series.  Indeed, the home team is 9-0 SU & 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Bet the Warriors Wednesday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Brooklyn Nets +13.5

I like the spot for the Brooklyn Nets tonight.  They will be out for revenge from a 118-110 home loss to the Boston Celtics last night.  Now they come back as 13.5-point dogs on the road in the rematch tonight.  The Celtics won't be very motivated to beat this team again, which will make it difficult for them to cover this inflated number.

All five starters for the Celtics played at least 35 minutes last night.  They aren't as deep as the Nets, who will have an advantage in this 2nd of a back-to-back situation with four of their five starters playing 34 minutes or fewer, and three playing 28 or fewer last night.

Boston is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games following a win where it didn't cover the spread.  The Celtics are 5-13 ATS following three or more consecutive wins this season.  Boston is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games overall and grossly overvalued over the last couple weeks.  The Celtics are 0-7 ATS in their last seven home games vs. good shooting teams that make 46% of their shots or better.  Bet the Nets Wednesday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Portland Trail Blazers +8.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves are in a letdown spot coming off two consecutive upset road wins over the Bucks and Clippers.  They beat the Clippers 121-100 last night and will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  I can't see them being all that motivated to beat the Blazers tonight after upsetting the Clippers, and they are definitely the more tired team.

The Blazers have had the last two days off and will be playing just their 3rd game in 9 days.  They are expected to get Anfernee Simons (23.4 PPG, 5.3 APG) back from injury, and he means everything to their success.  They also have Jerami Grant (21.9 PPG) and De'Andre Ayton (13.9 PPG, 10.4 RPG) healthy and could get back Scoot Henderson (12.8 PPG, 4.6 APG), who is questionable.

The Blazers have been competitive in seven consecutive games not once losing by more than 12 points and with only one loss by double-digits.  This despite battling through injuries to several of their key players.  I love the spot for the Blazers with the rest advantage, and they are 42-12 SU in their last 54 home meetings with the Timberwolves to boot.

Minnesota is 2-13 ATS in its last 15 games after covering five or six of their last seven games.  Plays against favorites (Minnesota) - after scoring 120 points or more against an opponent after a combined score of 185 points or less are 29-8 (78.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Timberwolves.  Bet the Blazers Tuesday.

20* Nuggets/Bucks NBA TV No-Brainer on Milwaukee +2

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Milwaukee Bucks.  They went 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their first six games with Doc Rivers.  But it was largely due to a brutal schedule and some injuries.  They played five straight road games and came home and lost to Minnesota.

But the Bucks bounced back with a 120-84 home win over the Hornets on the 2nd of a back-to-back in Damian Lillard's return from injury.  Now they have had the last two days off to rest and recover, and now they want revenge from a 107-113 road loss at Denver on January 29th in Rivers' first game.

The Bucks go from 4-point road dogs at Denver in that meeting to 2-point home dogs in the rematch.  They should be at least 2-point home favorites when adjusting for home-court advantage and the spot.

Denver is 2-11 ATS after playing two consecutive road games this season.  Plays on any team (Milwaukee) - after losing five or six of its last seven games, a good team (60-75%) playing a winning team are 45-15 (75%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays on all teams with a line of +3 to -3 (Milwaukee) - off a blowout home win by 20 points or more, a good team winning 60-75% of their games on the season are 41-14 (74.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Bucks Monday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Atlanta Hawks -2

The Atlanta Hawks didn't lose any important players at the trade deadline despite Dejounte Murray's name coming up a ton.  I think he sat out the last couple games because of the rumors, and now there's a decent chance he returns tonight.

That would be a bonus, but I like how the Hawks played even without him in their last two games.  They took both the Clippers at home and Celtics on the road to the wire.  Now I expect them to get rewarded for their efforts tonight by taking down a short-handed Philadelphia 76ers team.

The 76ers are 26-8 SU with Joel Embiid and 4-12 SU without him.  Tyrese Maxey isn't good enough to carry this team.  They lost Patrick Beverly in a trade and added Buddy Hield and Cameron Payne, but neither are expected to play tonight.  They are also without Melton, Batum and Covington.  The last three games without Embiid have been a disaster with the 76ers going 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS while getting blown out in all 3, losing by 15 at home to the Nets, by 16 at home to the Mavericks and by 23 at home to the Warriors.

Plays on road teams (Atlanta) - after allowing 115 points or more in five consecutive games against an opponent that allowed 125 points or more last game are 32-9 (78%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Hawks Friday.

15* Pelicans/Clippers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on New Orleans +7.5

This is a terrible spot for the Los Angeles Clippers and a great time to 'sell high' on them.  They just completed a 6-1 road trip and have been on the road since January 26th.  I always like fading teams in their first home game back from an extended road trip because there are a lot of distractions for them to deal with back home.

Now the Clippers will be playing in their 8th different city in 13 days and their 3rd game in 4 days.  They just played in a 149-144 shootout in Atlanta on Monday and won't have much left in the tank for the New Orleans Pelicans tonight.

Meanwhile, the Pelicans will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days with a 138-100 blowout home win over the Raptors on Monday.  They will be the much fresher team in this one, and the Pelicans have actually played some of their best basketball on the road this season.  They are 11-4 SU in their last 15 road games with only two losses by more than 6 points.

Plays on road underdogs (New Orleans) - after a combined score of 235 points or more against an opponent after a combined score of 265 points or more are 28-7 (80%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Pelicans own the Clippers, going 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet the Pelicans Wednesday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Utah Jazz +3

The Utah Jazz want revenge from a 129-134 home loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder on January 18th.  They are fully healthy and the fresher team right now playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.  They are coming off a 123-108 home win over the Bucks to improve to 16-7 SU & 17-5-1 ATS at home this season the best ATS record at home in the entire NBA.

The Oklahoma City Thunder will be playing their 9th game in 15 days.  This rough stretch has injuries piling up with Isaiah Joe out and Jalen Williams, Jaylin Williams and Cason Wallace all questionable.  One of the Thunder's biggest strengths is their depth, and that is really getting tested right now.

The Thunder needed double-OT to dispatch of the lowly Toronto Raptors as 8.5-point favorites last time out.  I don't believe they should be favored on the road tonight given how tired they are and the fact that they now have to go into altitude in Salt Lake City and play an elite home team in the Jazz.

Utah is 9-1 ATS in home games when playing with double revenge this season.  The Jazz are 12-2 ATS in home games when revenging a loss this season.  Plays on underdogs (Utah) - after scoring 115 points or more in two consecutive games against an opponent that scored 135 points or more last game are 46-14 (76.7%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the Jazz Tuesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Cleveland Cavaliers -4

The Cleveland Cavaliers have gone 13-1 SU & 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  They have done a lot of this damage without key players in Evan Mobley and Darius Garland.  But both are back healthy now and the Cavaliers are as close to full strength as they have been all season.

I like them to cover this short number at home against a Sacramento Kings team that is in a tough spot tonight.  The Kings have to be fatigued playing their 7th consecutive road game tonight.  They will also be playing their 3rd road game in 4 days.  I don't expect them to have much left in the tank for the Cavaliers tonight.

Sacramento is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games off two or more consecutive road wins.  Cleveland is 12-4 ATS against good offensive teams that score 116 or more points per game this season.  Plays against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Sacramento) - after covering four of its last five against the spread, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 27-7 (79.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Cavaliers Monday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Portland Trail Blazers +14

I love the spot for the Portland Trail Blazers tonight.  They will be out for revenge from a 120-108 road loss to the Denver Nuggets on Friday.  Now they get to play the Nuggets again here just two days later on Sunday.  They will be the more motivated team in this rematch.

The Portland Trail Blazers are a dangerous team when healthy, which is the case for them right now.  These are the types of teams you can make money on in the NBA because they have a poor 15-34 SU record and the betting public wants nothing to do with them.

But the Blazers have shown what they are capable of in their last three games when healthy.  They upset the 76ers 130-104 as 9-point home dogs and upset the Bucks 119-116 as 10.5-point home dogs.  They only lost by 12 as 14-point road dogs to the Nuggets and Jerami Grant was a late scratch with back tightness.  There's a chance they get Grant back today, but having Simons, Brogdon, Ayton and Henderson healthy and playing is enough.

Being the defending champs comes with a tax for the Nuggets.  This team is struggling to get margin largely because they get everyone's best shot.  In fact, the Nuggets haven't won any of their last 12 games by more than 12 points, making for a 12-0 system backing the Blazers pertaining to this 14-point spread.  The Nuggets aren't going to be all that motivated to beat Portland again, which is going to make it tough to get margin.  Bet the Blazers Sunday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Portland Trail Blazers +12.5

The Portland Trail Blazers are a dangerous team when healthy, which is the case for them right now.  These are the types of teams you can make money on in the NBA because they have a poor 15-33 SU record and the betting public wants nothing to do with them.

But the Blazers have shown what they are capable of in their last two games when healthy.  They upset the 76ers 130-104 as 9-point home dogs and upset the Bucks 119-116 as 10.5-point home dogs.  Now they are catching 12.5 points to the Denver Nuggets, and they won't have a letdown tonight with this opportunity to take down the defending champs.

Being the defending champs comes with a tax for the Nuggets.  This team is struggling to get margin largely because they are not healthy.  In fact, the Nuggets haven't won any of their last 11 games by more than 12 points, making for a 12-0 system backing the Blazers pertaining to this 12.5-point spread.  Nikola Jokic is questionable to play tonight with a back injury after missing their last game as well.  Bet the Blazers Friday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Detroit Pistons +12

The Detroit Pistons have quietly gone 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.  These are the types of teams you can really make money on in the NBA.  They have a poor 6-41 SU record so the betting public wants nothing to do with them.  But they keep showing up every night.

The Pistons pulled the outright upset 120-104 as 12.5-point dogs in their last home game over the Oklahoma City Thunder.  They also took the Cavaliers to the wire on the road last time out in a 128-121 loss as 12.5-point dogs.  Now they are once again catching too many points tonight at home to the Los Angeles Clippers.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Clippers after going 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  But they did lose by 10 at Cleveland as 2.5-point favorites two games back to give these teams a common opponent.  And they won't be all that motivated to beat Detroit tonight.  This will be their 5th road game in 8 days as well and they are starting to run out of gas.  Detroit will be playing its 2nd game in 5 days and will be the fresher team.

Plays against road favorites of 10 points or more (LA Clippers) - a hot team winning 12 or more of their last 15 games, a tired team playing their 3rd road game in 5 days are 34-12 (73.9%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the Pistons Friday.

20* 76ers/Jazz TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah -4.5

The Utah Jazz return home highly motivated for a victory off two blowout road losses at Brooklyn and at New York on back-to-back days.  They get exactly the team they need to get back on track in the injury-ravaged Philadelphia 76ers.

The 76ers are without Joel Embiid (35.3 PPG, 11.3 RPG) and De'Anthony Melton (11.8 PPG) and could be without Tyrese Maxey (25.7 PPG, 6.6 APG), who has missed the last three games with injury.  The 76ers are a tired team as well playing their 5th road game in eight days and in altitude in Salt Lake City to boot.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Jazz tonight.

Utah is 15-6 SU & 16-4-1 ATS at home this season with one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA.  They are fully healthy right now to boot.  Utah is 9-1 ATS in home games vs. a team with a winning record this season.  The Jazz are 8-0 ATS in their last eight home games after losing four or five of their last six games coming in.  Bet the Jazz Thursday.

15* Bucks/Blazers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland +10.5

The Portland Trail Blazers are the team you want to back when they are fully healthy and fade when they are not.  It makes as big a difference to them as any team in the NBA.  Right now they are fully healthy with Grant, Brogdon, Simons, Ayton and Henderson all playing.

We saw what they were capable of when that's the case last time out upsetting the 76ers 130-104 as 9-point home dogs.  They are 5-3 ATS in their last eight games with outright upsets at home against Brooklyn as 7-point dogs, at home against Indiana as 8-point dogs, at Houston as 10-point dogs and a 2-point loss at OKC as 14-point dogs.  Most of their losses were when they weren't fully healthy.

Now the Blazers are once again catching too many points at home tonight as 10.5-point dogs to the Milwaukee Bucks.  The Bucks are in transition right now with the switch at head coach in Doc Rivers.  They are fade material in the immediate future.  He isn't going to fix their defense as the Bucks rank 19th in defensive rating, which is why they struggle to get margin on teams.  Despite being 32-15 SU, the Bucks have just 11 wins by more than 11 points.

The Blazers will be giving their best effort tonight with this game on National TV on ESPN, and that effort should be good enough to stay within this inflated number.  Milwaukee is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Bucks are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games overall.  Bet the Blazers Wednesday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago Bulls -5.5

The Toronto Raptors traded away two of their best players in Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby.  Both are already making major impacts on their new teams in the Pacers and Knicks, respectively.  The two players they got back in the Anunoby trade in Emmanuel Quickley and RJ Barrett are currently hurt and out tonight.

What's left of this Toronto team outside of Scottie Barnes just isn't very good.  They are one of the worst teams in the NBA in their current state.  That has shown of late as the Raptors are now 1-9 SU in their last 10 games overall.  They are also 1-4 ATS in their last five games with four of those five losses coming by 6 points or more.

The Bulls are quietly playing some of their best basketball of the season.  They have gone 7-4 SU in their last 11 games and are 4-1 ATS in their last five games.  The two losses during this stretch came on the road at Phoenix by 2 at the buzzer and at the Lakers by 9.  The Bulls are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five home games beating Memphis by 29, Houston by 5, Charlotte by 13 and Philadelphia by 13.

Chicago is 27-13 ATS in its last 40 home games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Bulls are 11-3 ATS vs. terrible defensive teams that allow 48% shooting or higher this season.  Bet the Bulls Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday UPSET SHOCKER on Houston Rockets +1

The Los Angeles Lakers are in a massive letdown spot off their epic 145-144 (2 OT) win at Golden State Saturday night.  They are already 2-0 SU against the Houston Rockets this season winning both meetings at home, so they won't be all that motivated to beat this team again.

The Houston Rockets will be motivated playing with double-revenge.  The Rockets are 16-8 SU & 16-8 ATS at home this season and finally get the Lakers at home this time around.  Houston is 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four home meetings with Los Angeles with three outright upsets.  The Lakers are 9-15 SU on the road this season.

The Lakers are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games off an upset win as a road underdog.  Los Angeles is 16-30 ATS in its last 46 games off two or more consecutive wins.  Darwin Ham is 6-20 ATS off a road win as the coach of the Lakers.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Rockets Monday.

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on New York Knicks -8

The New York Knicks are 12-2 SU & 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games overall since trading for OG Anunoby.  That includes home wins over the Nuggets by 38 and the Heat by 16 in their last two games coming in.  Now I fully expect them to make easy work of the hapless Charlotte Hornets tonight.

The Hornets just traded away Terry Rozier and now their best player in LaMelo Ball is questionable tonight and likely won't go.  They were already without Mark Williams and Gordon Hayward.  This is one of the least talented teams in the NBA in their current state.

The Hornets are 3-21 SU in their last 24 games overall.  Charlotte is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games overall and has rarely been competitive.  The Hornets are coming off a pair of blowout home losses to the Jazz by 12 and the Rockets by 34.

The Knicks own the Hornets going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in three meetings with them this season winning by 22 and 24 at home as well as by 14 on the road.  New York is 16-4 ATS vs. a team with a losing record this season.  It will be more of the same tonight with the Knicks winning by double-digits.  Bet the Knicks Monday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago Bulls -6.5

I love the spot for the Chicago Bulls tonight.  They are coming off a pair of single-digit road losses to Phoenix and the LA Lakers.  Now they have had the last two days off to rest and recover and now take a big step down in class against the Portland Trail Blazers.  This one has blowout written all over it.

Portland is 4-10 in its last 14 games overall and just cannot stay healthy.  They lost both Jerami Grant and Scoot Henderson to injury in the 1H of their 116-100 road loss to the Spurs on Friday.  Now they will be playing in their 5th different city in 8 days and returning home from a four-game road trip.  I always like fading teams in their first game back home from an extended road trip.

Grant, Henderson, Malcolm Brodgon, Anfernee Simons and Jabari Walker are all questionable to play tonight.  Sheadon Sharpe is out.  Depending how this injury news breaks, the Bulls could close as double-digit favorites.  There's just not much talent for the Blazers outside of these guys that are questionable or out.

Portland is 0-9 ATS in its last nine home games after covering four or five of its last six ATS.  Chicago is 8-1 ATS vs. poor teams that are outscored by 3-plus points per game this season.  Bet the Bulls Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Los Angeles Clippers +7.5

This line has been adjusted up too much for the fact that the Clippers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  But the Clippers had two days off before their 127-107 win in Toronto last night.  They made such easy work of the Raptors that they didn't have to play their starters big minutes.

The Clippers will still be plenty fresh and motivated to try and knock off the Boston Celtics tonight.  The Clippers are 12-2 SU in their last 14 games overall with the two losses coming by 3 points to the Lakers and by 4 to the Timberwolves.  So the Clippers would be 14-0 ATS with a line of +7.5 in their last 14 games.  They are playing too well right now to be catching 7.5 points.

The Celtics will be without Kristaps Porzingis and they are much less efficient without him.  They should not be favored by 7.5 without Porzingis, who would have been a matchup nightmare for the Clippers in their current state.  Bet the Clippers Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Utah Jazz -9.5

This is a terrible spot for the short-handed Charlotte Hornets.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days.  They just lost 138-104 at home to the Houston Rockets last night, and their effort won't be any better tonight.  They traded away Terry Rozier and now they are even more short-handed without Gordon Hayward and Mark Williams already.

The Utah Jazz will be playing just their 3rd game in 7 days.  They blew out the Wizards 123-108 on the road last time out and will win this game by double-digits as well to get us the win and cover.  The Jazz are 13-6 SU & 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games overall and playing their best basketball of the season now that they are fully healthy.

Charlotte is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 games when playing 6 or more games in 10 days.  Utah is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 games when playing its 3rd road game in 5 days.  Bet the Jazz Saturday.

20* NBA Thursday UPSET SHOCKER on New York Knicks +2.5

The New York Knicks are 9-2 SU & 8-3 ATS since trading for OG Anunoby of the Toronto Raptors.  They have become an elite defensive team since the trade holding 10 of their last 12 opponents to 106 points or fewer, including seven of them to 100 or fewer.  That's remarkable in today's NBA.

Now I fully expect the Knicks to upset the defending champion Denver Nuggets at home tonight.  The Nuggets are 14-10 SU but 8-15-1 ATS on the road this season and have been vulnerable on the highway.  The Knicks are 14-5 SU & 11-7-1 ATS at home this season.

New York is a perfect 10-0 ATS in home games with a total of 220 to 229.5 this season.  Bet the Knicks Thursday.

20* Knicks/Nets TNT No-Brainer on New York -4

The New York Knicks are 8-2 SU & 7-3 ATS since trading for OG Anunoby of the Raptors.  They are in a great spot tonight rested coming off two days' rest and I expect them to make easy work of the Brooklyn Nets as a result.

The Nets are 4-15 SU & 3-15-1 ATS in their last 19 games overall and dealing with a bunch of trade rumors right now.  This is a terrible spot for the Nets returning home from a 3-game road trip that included two games in Los Angeles against the Lakers and Clippers to close out the trip.  They will be flat tonight in their first game back home.

The Knicks have owned the Nets going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings winning by 18 and 24 at home and by 19 on the road, which was their lone meeting this season.  New York is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the Knicks Tuesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on San Antonio Spurs +14.5

The San Antonio Spurs have quietly gone 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall and have been a lot more competitive than they are getting credit for.  That includes a 4-point loss to Milwaukee, a 2-point loss to Cleveland and a 6-point loss to Chicago.  I expect them to hang with the Philadelphia 76ers tonight.

This looks like a potential sleepy spot for the 76ers, who have won five consecutive games and have a five-game road trip coming up next.  They kind of sleep walked through their 97-89 win as 11-point favorites at Charlotte on Saturday.  They will now be playing in their 3rd different city in 4 days.

This is the final game of a 5-game road trip for the Spurs and I always feel like teams are more motivated in that final game on a road trip to end it with a win.  San Antonio will give Philadelphia a run for its money tonight.  Bet the Spurs Monday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Utah Jazz +4

The Utah Jazz have been fully healthy for a few weeks now and are showing what they are capable of when that's the case.  The Jazz are 12-2 SU & 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games overall with seven outright wins as underdogs.  What more does this team have to do to get some respect?

They beat the Pacers by 27, the Lakers by 7 on the 2nd of a back-to-back, the Raptors by 32, the Nuggets by 13, the Bucks outright by 16 as 8-point road dogs and the 76ers outright by 11 as 8.5-point road dogs in their last six games coming in.  They should not be 4-point home underdogs to the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight.

The Jazz have a big rest advantage over the Thunder, who will be playing their 3rd road game in 4 days and in altitude tonight to boot.  The Thunder will also be playing their 6th game in 9 days tonight and started to show signs of wearing down with a 7-point loss to the Lakers and an 11-point loss to the Clippers in their last two games coming in.  Meanwhile, the Jazz will be playing on two days' rest after having last night's game against the Warriors canceled.

The Jazz are 15-5 SU & 16-3-1 ATS at home this season.  Utah is 9-1 ATS as a home dog of 6 points or less this season.  The Jazz are 11-1 ATS when playing 8 or more games in 14 days this season.  Utah is 10-1 ATS in home games when revenging a road loss this season.  Utah is 9-0 ATS in home games vs. a team with a winning record this season.  Bet the Jazz Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on San Antonio Spurs +16

The San Antonio Spurs are 2-5 SU but 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall playing their most competitive basketball of the season.  They only lost at Memphis by 8, to the Bucks by 4, to the Cavs by 2, to the Bulls by 6 and at the Hawks by 10 in their five defeats during this stretch.  Now they are catching too many points once again to the Boston Celtics tonight.

Boston is overvalued due to its 19-0 home record this season.  But they needed OT recently at home to beat both the Pistons and the Timberwolves.  With this perfect home record comes expectations that are difficult to live up to, and it's time to 'sell high' on the Celtics as a result.

Three starters in Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porzingis and Derrick White are all questionable to play tonight for the Celtics.  Jaylen Brown is banged up as well.  The Spurs are as healthy as they have been all season, which has been the key to them being so competitive of late and covering a bunch of spreads.  They'll cover another tonight.  Bet the Spurs Wednesday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Phoenix Suns -4

The Phoenix Suns finally heave the Big 3 of Durant, Booker and Beal healthy and playing at the same time.  They are showing what they are capable of when that's the case in recent weeks.  The Suns are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games overall including a 127-109 road win over the Lakers two games ago.

The Suns have the next two days off so they will be 'all in' to get a win over the Sacramento Kings tonight.  I question how much the Kings have left in the tank as they will be playing their 5th consecutive road game and coming off an OT loss at Milwaukee at the buzzer on Sunday.  They will be playing their 5th road game in 8 days as well as their 9th game in 15 days overall.

Sacramento is 12-25 ATS in its last 37 games after playing two consecutive road games.  The Kings are 18-34 ATS in their last 52 road games off a close road loss by 3 points or less.  Plays against road underdogs (Sacramento) - off two or more consecutive road losses against an opponent that is off a road win by 10 points or more are 25-7 (78.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Suns Tuesday.